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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our week sixteen episode, the Tuesday episode where we break

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Speaker 1: down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss

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Speaker 1: our exec decision and our Simon says, start to narrow

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Speaker 1: down the options for our fave fives to put in

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Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em

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Speaker 1: contest boy. Last week, Blue Simon and I got a

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Speaker 1: little testy with each other on Sunday night because we

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Speaker 1: were zero to four heading into the Sunday night game.

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Speaker 1: The Green Bay Packers saved our week, kept us from

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Speaker 1: an overur They did try their best to let the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks creep back into it in the second half. We

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Speaker 1: turn the page, we fire away, We move on. I

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Speaker 1: was pumped to start making some bets, start to see

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Speaker 1: some opportunities this morning when I was finishing my research

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Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. I'm joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre, and

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Speaker 1: my BFF Professional Better. So I'm in Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in hello chat. How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Dude? You got to keep a good attitude when all

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Speaker 1: this is going on. And it helps when we're coming

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Speaker 1: out of our live event with listeners this past Thursday,

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Speaker 1: and I got to say, I love our listen listeners.

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Speaker 1: They are like they are nice, they are kind, they

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Speaker 1: are funny, They got great attitudes. They have the right perspective.

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Speaker 1: Everybody who visited with us at the event at the

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Speaker 1: Wicked Wolf in Philly, we had, you know, hundreds of

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Speaker 1: people come. They just have great attitudes and they're just

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Speaker 1: happy to be listening to the show. A lot of

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Speaker 1: them aren't even like Betters, They just sort of enjoy

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Speaker 1: hearing the football talk. I want to thank I'm sure

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Speaker 1: you do too. The hundreds of people who showed up

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Speaker 1: this past Thursday. Listeners came from Cleveland, from Dallas, DC,

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Speaker 1: New York shout out Staten Island, former home of my

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Speaker 1: wife and mother in law. We had retirees from Delaware County.

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Speaker 1: We had people come on their date nights. More than

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Speaker 1: one couple I met came on a date night. In

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Speaker 1: the words of Matt Mitchell, we also had loads of

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Speaker 1: Philly scumbags. I truly love Philly and the people that

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Speaker 1: are great town. Even my older son showed up family

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Speaker 1: acknowledgment that I have a podcast. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you have any favorite memories other than the Simon Hunter

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Speaker 1: family showing up in force as they always do for

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Speaker 1: our live events.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you tell all my family there's gonna be free

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Speaker 3: drink Chad, They're going to be there. Definitely showed up

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Speaker 3: big time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, it's just great where especially.

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Speaker 3: Nowadays that I don't know about you, but as someone

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Speaker 3: that is getting older and my friends are all having kids,

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Speaker 3: you don't get to go out and hang out with

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Speaker 3: people the same kind of mindset of just be that

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Speaker 3: love football and love sports betting. So we all get

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Speaker 3: together with people just the same kind of mindset we have.

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Speaker 3: It's just a good time because like it's just it's

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Speaker 3: only other place I get that feeling is at the

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Speaker 3: book and sometimes they're not always the nicest people at

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Speaker 3: those sports books.

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Speaker 2: So on the other.

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Speaker 3: Flip side, like you just said, all our fans really friendly,

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Speaker 3: really fun watching the game with them, making bets with them,

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I honestly can't wait till the next time

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Speaker 3: we do all these love events just because you know

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Speaker 3: it's it's fun sweating bets with people, especially when people

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Speaker 3: are on the same side as you.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I really enjoyed it.

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Speaker 1: We actually don't have as much as Matt Mitchell likes

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Speaker 1: to say, we don't have a ton of scumbag listeners

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Speaker 1: like we have so many people who are like married,

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Speaker 1: people with kids, with families, who like to bet and

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Speaker 1: hang out. It's so much fun. It's so much fun

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Speaker 1: to hang out with them. You were giving away cash

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Speaker 1: to people who could answer in naane podcast trivia questions.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell did a great job putting together sort of

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Speaker 1: a questionnaire highlighting elements of the podcast, asking fun questions

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Speaker 1: like who could I beat up? Who is the biggest

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Speaker 1: villain in Philly? What jobs would Simon have been doing

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Speaker 1: if he wasn't doing this. We're going to share a

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Speaker 1: lot of those when we get into future episodes in

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Speaker 1: the off season, so people can hear what their podcast

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Speaker 1: fellow podcast listeners are saying when there isn't football to discuss.

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Speaker 1: But great night, great time, Glad for everyone that showed up,

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Speaker 1: Glad to see everybody, and look forward to doing it again.

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Speaker 1: We're going to do another one in the spring as

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Speaker 1: a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, or North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. So like, look,

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Speaker 1: it's no secret we've been running bad for a lot

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Speaker 1: of the year. It's been a tough year. How about this, though, simon,

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Speaker 1: If we think things have gone badly for us, and

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Speaker 1: this past Sunday was epic meltdowns of Jonathan Taylor dropping

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Speaker 1: the ball before the end zone, and Najie Harris dropping

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Speaker 1: a lateral, and god knows what else. Da Montgomery injured

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Speaker 1: his knee for the Detroit Lions. He is done for

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Speaker 1: the year. His rushing total for the year was seven

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Speaker 1: hundred seventy five zero point five rushing yards. As of Sunday,

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Speaker 1: his total rushing yards seven hundred and seventy five. That

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Speaker 1: is either a great win for all the underbetters, but

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Speaker 1: the people who will remember it and tell stories about

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Speaker 1: it and discuss it at cocktail parties. Argimated people who

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Speaker 1: bet the over seven to seventy five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Great tweet from Action Network. Can you imagine that's that's

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Speaker 1: a gut punch Simon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's pretty sick me.

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Speaker 3: But it's also a testament to the sports books who

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Speaker 3: just play the numbers in their computer right where it's

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Speaker 3: like that's that's the average they got back and mathematically

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Speaker 3: it's profitable. And we always talk about it, if you just

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Speaker 3: bet unders on all these season long props, it's a winner.

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Speaker 3: And that's just a classic case of that where they

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Speaker 3: laid a smart number and they got lucky.

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Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get some luck this week, because

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Speaker 1: that's how we roll. We bring optimism to every single week.

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Speaker 1: Week sixteen, we talked about the Thursday game the Broncos

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Speaker 1: at the Chargers. The Chargers are three point favorites. I

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Speaker 1: think money is starting to come in on the Broncos

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Speaker 1: because we're seeing the juice a little bit in their

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Speaker 1: favor on this number, so it could go to two

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Speaker 1: and a half quickly. That was our first lean. I

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Speaker 1: think part of this to me, you tell me was

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Speaker 1: about justin Herbert sort of looking hobbled on Sunday, especially

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Speaker 1: in the second half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and we just talked about really about that in

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Speaker 3: the number, right, like that just felt like once again,

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Speaker 3: too much respect to this Chargers team for a team

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Speaker 3: that I don't know how deserving they are of that respect.

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Speaker 2: Right. A lot of what.

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Speaker 3: They did earlier in the season, we get it. I

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Speaker 3: was really impressive start the season for this Chargers team.

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Speaker 3: But the injuries, just like Detroit, are going to catch

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Speaker 3: up to these teams, right, Like we've seen that time

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Speaker 3: with time again, when we're losing key players at key.

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Speaker 2: Positions, it matters.

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Speaker 3: And it's another spot too where I think professionals, like

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Speaker 3: I talked to you they like the Chargers here, it

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Speaker 3: was kind of like they think bon Nicks is hit

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Speaker 3: in that rookie wall, and I feel like it's the

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Speaker 3: other way where it's like, isn't this a nice spot

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Speaker 3: to bet on bone Knicks after a terrible start, Like

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Speaker 3: isn't this where he should do well on a short week?

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Speaker 3: Just get it out of his system? And again, it's

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Speaker 3: it's such a key number that it was at three,

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Speaker 3: So not surprising at all that it's come down to two

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Speaker 3: and a half, especially as the week goes along here,

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Speaker 3: Like we talked about, it's a short week, Chargers have

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Speaker 3: more injuries, They seem more banged up. You know, I

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Speaker 3: don't know where you're at of this one, but it's like,

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Speaker 3: if you can get the three, grab the three, because

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Speaker 3: it's it's a game.

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Speaker 2: I'm not trying to.

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Speaker 3: Bet if I don't have to, but if I'm taking

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Speaker 3: a good number here, it's definitely can be a three

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Speaker 3: on Denver.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it just matchup wise. There's been a lot of

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Speaker 1: talk about the Chargers defense and how good they've been,

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Speaker 1: but since we nine twenty eighth in success rate, they

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Speaker 1: were third first eight weeks. So now you've got a

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Speaker 1: Broncos interior pass rush where they got multiple players in

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Speaker 1: the top thirty of PFF's interior defensive linemen rankings for

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Speaker 1: pass rush, and the Chargers interior O line does not

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Speaker 1: have anybody that is ranking as high. So there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an edge there for Denver. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: if we have the three, we're gonna take the three.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the go with the Broncos. Breaking

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Speaker 1: news out of Kansas City, Houston and Kansas City Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: As we went on air, the last time I was

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Speaker 1: able to check, Kansas City was a two point dog.

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Speaker 1: But as we were talking about this, literally before we

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Speaker 1: hit record for the show and went live, Andy Reid

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Speaker 1: was saying that Patrick Mahomes will have his first test today.

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Speaker 1: He'll do some work today, They'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 1: That will be the determinant in terms of indications about

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Speaker 1: how we can do on Sunday. He also said Hollywood

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Speaker 1: Brown has a chance to play Simon. You were saying,

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Speaker 1: as some other books, this line had already moved to

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Speaker 1: Kansas City minus one. I have not been able to

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Speaker 1: check BET three sixty five. Let me see if I

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Speaker 1: can get an update here and.

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Speaker 3: They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's

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Speaker 3: I think most American books are out right now.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so yeah, plus one plus one and a half Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Yep, yep, you're exactly right. So it's coming down off

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Speaker 1: of that news. I bet at at two and a

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Speaker 1: half yesterday. Schefter was reporting yesterday that the Chiefs don't

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Speaker 1: think it's as bad as they were first concerned about.

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Speaker 1: So I immediately better at two and a half. That's

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Speaker 1: the ballgame, really, like, are you're getting the best of

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Speaker 1: the number you should probably in the Chiefs right now.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you're gonna make this as Simon says, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: but feels like that's what we should be doing.

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Speaker 3: I would have it was still two and a half

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Speaker 3: because even even at two and a half, if it

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Speaker 3: was Carson Wentz, I don't hate that number honestly. For

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Speaker 3: this Chiefs team against a Houston team right on a

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Speaker 3: short week at home, it's like a lot of these

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Speaker 3: advantages we auto Athley are going to get to this

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Speaker 3: Chiefs team just because something I think everyone can agree

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Speaker 3: something just seems off about that Houston team. And you know,

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Speaker 3: the books opened this at three and a half and

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Speaker 3: it just got hammered even when everyone thought it was

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Speaker 3: gonna be Carson Wentz. So they moved at two and

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Speaker 3: a half. Like you just said, it's sat there for

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Speaker 3: a good day and a half, and like I've been betting,

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you have.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, now that.

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Speaker 3: It's moved, I would still bet if you haven't, Like,

219
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Speaker 3: if you liked the chief side, why not again, If

220
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Speaker 3: you're scared you missed the number, go ahead, throw it

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Speaker 3: in a teaser. Then you can get this up to

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Speaker 3: seven and a half right now, A lot of books

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Speaker 3: and a six point teaser. Really, Like, that's that's a

224
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Speaker 3: good number. If you want to get real weird with it,

225
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Speaker 3: pair it with the Ravens if you believe in them

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Speaker 3: to win outright against Pittsburgh the next that night game.

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Speaker 3: So like, there's ways you can attack this if you

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Speaker 3: did miss the value. But I think there's still value here.

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Speaker 3: If it is Mahomes, this gets up to what Chad

230
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Speaker 3: minus three hugely, I mean minus three Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: So to me, there's still have his value there. Even

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Speaker 2: if Mahomes is banged up.

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Speaker 3: We've seen him play on play on injuries before and

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Speaker 3: it's still then winning by a field goal. So to me,

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Speaker 3: as long as it stays at three or under, I'm

236
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Speaker 3: still gonna go chiefs.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, it stinks.

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Speaker 3: Like we talked before the hop on the show, it

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Speaker 3: was it moved right before he got on. It's like

240
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Speaker 3: I was looking forward to talking about two and a

241
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Speaker 3: half again, just because again, if it is Wentz, I

242
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Speaker 3: have no issue. If you're sitting on a two and

243
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Speaker 3: a half ticket with Wentz, I think that's still a

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Speaker 3: solid number. And on the flip side, there's no reason

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Speaker 3: to chase this number for you now. Now you can

246
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Speaker 3: be patient that if it is Wentst on Friday, this

247
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Speaker 3: goes back up. You might even get back above three.

248
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Speaker 3: It might get the plus three chiefs plus three and

249
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Speaker 3: a half chiefs. So definitely a number where if you

250
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Speaker 3: missed it, you like what me and chat are saying,

251
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Speaker 3: you do think Mahomes toughs it out, grab it now.

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Speaker 3: If you're on the flip side and you want to

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Speaker 3: be on Houston, I would just keep being patient here

254
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Speaker 3: like I could. I could see this keep going down

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Speaker 3: as the rumors keep swirling about my home's health.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's interesting that you mentioned the Texans. They

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Speaker 1: are still not a very good team. Offensively. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I was listening to Aikman last night, Prey Aikman, and

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Speaker 1: they were talking about coaches and who could potentially coach

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Speaker 1: the Bears, and you know, they mentioned Ben Johnson, they

261
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Speaker 1: mentioned Cliff Kingsbury, they mentioned Bobby Slowick from the Texans.

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Speaker 1: And there's clearly something that defenses have figured out when

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Speaker 1: they're defending CJ. Stroud. I don't know if you've seen

264
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Speaker 1: it in all the film study that you do, but

265
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Speaker 1: they are just defending him differently, and maybe they're playing

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Speaker 1: safeties deeper. I don't know, but this team even against

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, and I really liked the Dolphins last week,

268
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Speaker 1: and we didn't put him in the contest. I didn't

269
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Speaker 1: bet him at three because it's something about it made

270
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Speaker 1: me nervous. But this Texans offense man Joe Mixon just

271
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Speaker 1: had had just twenty three yards rushing last weekend, Nico

272
00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,920
Speaker 1: Collins just seventeen yards receiving. The Texans won that game

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Speaker 1: because Tua turned it over three times. CJ was sacked

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Speaker 1: four times. They only had three point six yards per play,

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Speaker 1: only twelve first downs. And this Chiefs defense is significantly

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Speaker 1: better than the Dolphins defense. And defenses have been confusing CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 1: especially on third downs all season. Like, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what you're seeing in whatever you're looking at, what is

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Speaker 1: going on with this Texans team.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the biggest thing from CJ is

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Speaker 3: he had a lot of confidence pushing the ball downfield

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Speaker 3: last year and that's been gone because of all the

283
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Speaker 3: hits he's taken from behind that bad offensive line. Like

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Speaker 3: you can see him either getting rid of the ball

285
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Speaker 3: early or just taking the easy checkdowns rather than trying

286
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Speaker 3: to make stuff happen.

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Speaker 2: Did last year.

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Speaker 3: So that's I mean, again, that's the human part of it, right,

289
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Speaker 3: Like we talked earlier the year Jade Daniels, you could

290
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Speaker 3: just tell Jane Dames was playing in a way that

291
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 3: you could tell he had never been hit in the

292
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Speaker 3: NFL before, and you saw immediately shifting that once he

293
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Speaker 3: did get hurt and hurt his ribs.

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Speaker 2: Right, he's played.

295
00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 3: Differently since that injury all season. So I think this

296
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,160
Speaker 3: am with CJ. It just seems like he's someone that

297
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 3: was playing free last year and this year he's taking

298
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,840
Speaker 3: a lot of hits. He's overthinking, and you're right, like

299
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,080
Speaker 3: we've talked about it, we don't like Ben Houston as

300
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Speaker 3: a favorite. This is another spot there's still a favorite

301
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,320
Speaker 3: right now, so it's it's pretty easy pick right now

302
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 3: for us.

303
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 2: With the Chiefs.

304
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Speaker 1: This is how sad my wife is in the shower

305
00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:41,640
Speaker 1: this morning. After I did my very aggressive, high intensity

306
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 1: thirty minutes of rowing, I was thinking to myself, if

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00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 1: Mahomes plays, I've got the Chiefs at two and a half,

308
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 1: I bet I'll be able to get the Texans at

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Speaker 1: plus three.

310
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Speaker 2: That's not sad, that's that's the best.

311
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Speaker 1: That then I'm just middle.

312
00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 2: I live for a middle.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with Milman the Middler what they call me. Pittsburgh,

314
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Speaker 1: get Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This numbers come down.

315
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Speaker 1: Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers lost

316
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 1: to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here.

317
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,320
Speaker 1: I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six

318
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 1: and a half. As soon as I saw Tomlin say

319
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 1: he was optimistic about TJ. Watt more money than tickets

320
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 1: on the Steelers. So you know it's not a pro

321
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 1: joe split, but there is a higher percentage of dollars

322
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 1: coming in on the Steelers. Also, some optimism George Pickens

323
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 1: may play after missing the past couple of weeks. Tomlin

324
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,600
Speaker 1: said they're going to monitor him this week, which is

325
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 1: more than he said last week going into the Ravens.

326
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,200
Speaker 1: Have you seen anything to make you not want to

327
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 1: play this?

328
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 3: No, And honestly, the it was pretty funny, Like we

329
00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 3: did our Sunday show and I let off with just

330
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: doing in a row the Thursday to Saturday games and

331
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Speaker 3: we basically just said each one and we'd like the dog.

332
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 3: Each summer has come down so pretty shocking where the

333
00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 3: favorites have been so good that these dogs.

334
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:05,320
Speaker 2: Have moved the other way.

335
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 3: And yeah, our simple view of this Pittsburgh number is

336
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,160
Speaker 3: like it's too big, especially in a matchup where they've

337
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,359
Speaker 3: always played really well against Lamar. It's one of the

338
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 3: few teams that knows how to make him kind of

339
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,080
Speaker 3: a just terrible day. For some reason, he's uncomfortab when

340
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 3: he plays against Pittsburgh and he turns to struggle.

341
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 2: Obviously, the key to that is what you just talked about, TJ. Watt, Like,

342
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 2: I am one hundred percent with you on that one.

343
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 2: If he is.

344
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 3: A game time decision, whatever it may be, and we

345
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 3: could put this one and I wouldn't put it in

346
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 3: if that's what we're playing with, Like, if we have

347
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,959
Speaker 3: to lock this in, I wouldn't risk it knowing that

348
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 3: we're betting a Pittsburgh team that might be down their

349
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,679
Speaker 3: number one d end and their number one receiver, Like

350
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,200
Speaker 3: that is a lot to overcome. And yeah, amazing staff

351
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 3: from Evan lamar oh and five against the spread versus Pittsburgh.

352
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 3: So me and Chad, I mean, we we got lazy

353
00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 3: with us when we always just bet Pittsburgh in this spot.

354
00:17:57,520 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 3: It feels like the same here, Like six and a

355
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 3: half was a great number. You can still find there's

356
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 3: one really public book out there still sit on six

357
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 3: and a half.

358
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:06,399
Speaker 2: But by it, why not take it?

359
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 3: And if you do get scared off by or you

360
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:10,719
Speaker 3: can try to do what I just try to try

361
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,399
Speaker 3: to middle it. Take the teaser Ravens, tease up the

362
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 3: Chiefs right now, like there's there is value here to

363
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 3: this middle because it does feel like the kind of

364
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,400
Speaker 3: game where the Ravens are gonna win, but they'll win

365
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 3: maybe by justin Tuckerfield will like it'll come down to

366
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: the last position. That's just how these two teams play.

367
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,720
Speaker 3: It's just again we love to bet the dog, especially

368
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,479
Speaker 3: Tomlin in this spot. We expect them to bounce back

369
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 3: after that embarrassing loss to the Eagles team. So yeah, Chat,

370
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,920
Speaker 3: it's it's a game I love. But if there's no TJ.

371
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 3: I don't think we'd put in our contest.

372
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: Sun and Light last week with Cleveland and Kansas City

373
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:51,359
Speaker 1: where you said very specifically, you said, very specifically, avoid it.

374
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: It's gross, and yet somehow I snuck it in. I'm

375
00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:01,679
Speaker 1: putting this one only if TJ Watt playing, which I agree,

376
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 1: and if he's not, I might try to buy out

377
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 1: of it.

378
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 2: Well, I just think they'll screw us on the number.

379
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:07,520
Speaker 2: If he's not playing.

380
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: I bet you it goes back to the six and

381
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: a half. I could easily see this being five and

382
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 3: a half in contest.

383
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was a clunker like the Steelers. They

384
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 1: had five minutes possession in the first half, right, and

385
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 1: there was going to be inflation on this game when

386
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 1: they played as badly as they did against the Eagles,

387
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,959
Speaker 1: and Lamar was thrown five touchdowns against the Giants. And

388
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 1: I will say this about the Steelers, they were terrible,

389
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 1: if not four that Najie Harris dropped lateral. They were

390
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 1: down twenty to thirteen. They may have been tied or

391
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 1: down just four midway through the third quarter, and that changes,

392
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 1: that really changes the game.

393
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then tom on punt too. Tomin punted on

394
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 3: the Eagles side of the ball, and what was it.

395
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 3: Eagles had a ten minute, eleven minute DROs.

396
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,120
Speaker 1: Never give it back, right, so literally have the ball

397
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: for ten minutes twenty seconds.

398
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 2: That was a bad Timelin game. I think overall, it.

399
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 1: Almost feels like, you know, we were nervous about that

400
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,679
Speaker 1: and nervous about that game, and nervous about the Chiefs

401
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 1: game because we were betting into the trends that we

402
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 1: knew they couldn't last forever. And I feel like in

403
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 1: both cases it's like we popped a zip and it's

404
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,239
Speaker 1: like there's just so much it's all been relieved, and

405
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 1: we should go back again, now, you know what I mean.

406
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 2: We're This was when I said Pittsburgh Sunday.

407
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 3: Now you gave me a look of like I'm just

408
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 3: happy you said it, because I can't say anything right now.

409
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,760
Speaker 2: We're not right spot for Pittsburgh.

410
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 1: All right, Let's look at a recap of our Week

411
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 1: fifteen in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

412
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest. Congratulations to week fifteen first place

413
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 1: winner Michael Stimpert. Michael went five and zero got within

414
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 1: six of the tiebreaker, takes home our one thousand dollars

415
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: weekly prize. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his

416
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 1: producer cuple Ward to the entry that finished dead fucking

417
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: last in the contest.

418
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 4: Have you heard about the loadsome loser? He's a loser

419
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 4: about he still kids on try.

420
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:19,239
Speaker 1: This week's producer Cup award goes to Mark to you,

421
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 1: who went on to five missed the tiebreaker by almost

422
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 1: five hundred yards. Mark, please email our producer at podcast

423
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize. Cleveland at Cincinnati,

424
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's seven point favorite, Kevin Stefanski would not commit to

425
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:39,479
Speaker 1: Jamis as his quarterback. I will not commit to betting

426
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 1: on the Browns. I cannot commit to betting on the

427
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: Bengals to seven point favorites. With the defense, they gave

428
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 1: up fourteen to Will Levis and thirteen to Mason Rudolph.

429
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: Can you.

430
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's tough. What are we gonna do here?

431
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: Pass?

432
00:21:58,880 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: All right?

433
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 1: Have an opinion. I don't have an opinion. If I'm

434
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 1: playing a number, I want to play Cleveland.

435
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 2: It just sucks, even if it's DTR.

436
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 3: Like I want to bet Cleveland even if it's Chamius

437
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 3: or DTR because no matter what, they're gonna be able

438
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 3: to move the ball.

439
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: We already know that against the Cincinnati.

440
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: Defense, Yeah, they're terrible.

441
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 3: What you just said those issues for me is that

442
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 3: what happens on the turnover side, like what burns us?

443
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: And has Cleveland just totally given up at this point

444
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 3: because that that second half looked like a team that

445
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 3: had nothing going, no spark at all, even defensively like

446
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: they had a couple of big time stops stops, but

447
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: overall it just felt like a total nothing game where

448
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 3: they just don't want to be there. So, like you said,

449
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 3: the number everything about it, I want to play Cleveland.

450
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 3: I just I don't have an inma Chad to ride

451
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 3: it for another week.

452
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: I don't know they're not for the contest for sure.

453
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: I also feel like there's other games that we're going

454
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: to like more. I do think we can find five

455
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 1: games that we like. Simon, there's been much missile towing

456
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 1: and Hearts have been glowing when the playoffs are near.

457
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 1: That means the holiday season is upon us, and with

458
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:10,520
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459
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461
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462
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463
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464
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465
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466
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468
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469
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470
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. Very interesting game La Rams at

471
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: New York Jets. Jets are three point underdogs. On Sunday night,

472
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: we discussed liking the Jets. I'm very surprised that the

473
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: money has come steaming in on the Rams. This is

474
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 1: a pros joe split with tickets on the Jets money

475
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: on the Rams. This move. It's not at three at

476
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 1: bet three six five, but it is at three and

477
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 1: a half. I mean it's at three at bet three

478
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 1: six five, but it's at three and a half at

479
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: a lot of other books. Are you surprised at the move?

480
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 3: No, I mean I'm surprised to know that more tickets

481
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,239
Speaker 3: are on the Jets because it's like, this is the

482
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 3: definition of the public hammering the Rams and the pros

483
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: will just bet the Jets. So there's a couple of

484
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,160
Speaker 3: games like that this week that's like, you know, I'm

485
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 3: sorry ahead of time people like meanscha might have to

486
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: force one of the contest because it is it's just

487
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,959
Speaker 3: a glaring number movement where it's like this should probably

488
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: be closer to a pick maybe minus one and a

489
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 3: half on the Rams, and we're just getting a ton

490
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 3: of value here just because you know, this Rams team

491
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 3: have had they've had some big wins in prime time

492
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 3: spot in games where it's like, you know, last week,

493
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 3: people are just going to check out up to the weather, right.

494
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: Stafford threw three interceptions that were dropped, like there's no

495
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 3: beating around that, Like he had a bad game, they

496
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 3: stole one. Now the public's rewarding them. Like it's just

497
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 3: a very bizarre scenario on the flip side, you know,

498
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: as much I want to shoot on the Jets coaching

499
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 3: staff for that end of the game. Overall, Rogers has

500
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 3: looked better as he's gotten more comfortable with the weapons

501
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 3: on the team. Like that was totally a game where

502
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 3: you know, if Devanta Adams wasn't on that team.

503
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: There's no way they cover that number. Like DeVonta Adams

504
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 2: literally took.

505
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 3: Over that game just because of him and the Rogers connection.

506
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 3: So that's a way that they can easily attack this

507
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 3: Ram secondary.

508
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: We've seen this Ramp secondary just young, inexperienced.

509
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 3: Now they're going up against a veteran like DeVonta a

510
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: Devanta Adams obviously doesn't have the game he had last week.

511
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 3: That's going to open up everything else in the offense

512
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 3: as well, like we've already talked about that. So yeah,

513
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: I hate it because I wanted to avoid this Jets team,

514
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 3: But now, like you just said, now that it's up

515
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 3: to three and a half, you can't avoid it. That's

516
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: there's too much value there. That's such a good number

517
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 3: you have to take the Jets.

518
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 2: This line stinks for a letdown spot for this Rams team.

519
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: After going thirty five games without throwing for three hundred yards.

520
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers went over that against Miami and finished with

521
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty nine versus the Jacks. He has

522
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 1: looked mobile, he's been evading the rush, he's been accurate

523
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: on the run, he's been connecting with receivers downfield. I

524
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: already made a note. We've got a Rams pass defense

525
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: that is bottom third of the league rush d and

526
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 1: overall yards per play that is bottom five, not bottom

527
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: fifth of the league, literally bottom five in the league.

528
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: They're missing some key players. I feel like we're going

529
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: to be in the foxhol Like. I don't understand sort

530
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Rams here, because

531
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 1: it is like they've and sexy against the best team

532
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 1: in the NFL in the Bills, and they went ugly

533
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 1: against their biggest rival in a must win spot. So

534
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: I don't know what. I don't know what guys are

535
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: betting here. Are they betting the you know that Stafford

536
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: McVeigh versus Rogers uhbrick matchup? That's the only thing I

537
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 1: can think of is that they just they like the

538
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: coaching quarterback mismatch more than they like the number.

539
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, just the Rams are a better team. I mean

540
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 3: they're I mean, I have to check them. I'm pretty

541
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 3: sure they're leaving their division now, so maybe that's the end. Yeah,

542
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 3: they are, like, well, they're playing people view that they're

543
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 3: playing for more.

544
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: They're leading their division. This Jets team is playing for nothing.

545
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 3: Coming off a win, you expect them to have a

546
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: lutdown here, so I get their perspective. Also extended rest

547
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: for that Rams team.

548
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just think they're just overvalue, a little

549
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: overrated right now?

550
00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 1: All right, speaking of overvalue and overrated, are the Philadelphe

551
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: Eagles overvalued and overrated? Visiting their division rivals, the Washington

552
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 1: Commanders at bet three sixty five? This is three. There

553
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 1: are a lot of three and a half's out there.

554
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 1: We discussed it a bit on Sunday night. I want

555
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: to take the hook here is this. Simon says it is.

556
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 2: Simon says Washington three and a half. When Simon says

557
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 2: do it, we do what Sion's says. He just nailed.

558
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 2: It's all about the number. We talked Sunday night. We

559
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 2: loved it at four.

560
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: We knew it was gonna come down because it was

561
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: just a way too inflated line and it's going to

562
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 3: be three by kickoff, like this.

563
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: Is another game.

564
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 3: Oh yeahs pros Joe's Like the public is going to

565
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 3: hammer this Eagles team that you know, not that this

566
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: is their last tough game with the schedule, right. They

567
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: end with I think the Cowboys and the Giants. I

568
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: guess that could be tough for them in some ways.

569
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 2: But this this is the type of game where if

570
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: the Eagles.

571
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: Somehow win it, they're not winning by more than a

572
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: field goal. Like this is gonna be a really ugly close,

573
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 3: slow scoring game. And last time they played, Washington was

574
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: in it until they made a couple of little stupid

575
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: mistakes and obviously the Eagles just open it up in

576
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 3: the second half of them with Saquon So you know,

577
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: we've seen time taking them times. Teams that see another

578
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 3: team the second time around, it's just different. They know

579
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 3: to play each other, especially a playoff team like that

580
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: Washington is.

581
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 2: So we talked about it Sunday night.

582
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: That was a dumb number open with four to four

583
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: and a half, and it was opened that eye because

584
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: Commanders should have lost one on a terrible ref technicality.

585
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw that clip of that

586
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 3: ref top of the clock when you shouldn't have. Then

587
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: the flip side, the Eagles just blow out in a

588
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: game that no one was betting on them, right, everyone

589
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: was on the other side. So it's like the public

590
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: tends to overadjust to those type of moments where they

591
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 3: got rolled by a team. They come back and heavy

592
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 3: on the other side the following week. So yeah, the

593
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 3: the unfortunate part just number has moved so much. If

594
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 3: you can find the three and a half, find it now,

595
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 3: this is just a number. I can see get the

596
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: three by Sunday. It's just the pros. You're gonna keep

597
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: hitting it once again. It's just all about inflated lines

598
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: and taking the value. And that's that's what this line is.

599
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: It's just inflated right now. This Egos team is really good,

600
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 3: really talented. Divisional games are just different. They simply are.

601
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: So that to me is the defining point here.

602
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: It'll be three before we end this live show. It's

603
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: a three. We're anywhere that it's three and a half,

604
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: it's you know, three and a half minus one twenty.

605
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: So it's gonna move and it's elevated big. Every single

606
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: place that is three and a half plus three and

607
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: a half. So it's going to be a three before

608
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 1: you know it. So, yeah, if you want it, Simon says,

609
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: grab it. Arizona at Carolina. Carolina's a four point dog.

610
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: We're back at it with the Carolina Panthers. Finally they're underdogs,

611
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: so we don't have to be tempted. You know, good

612
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: for us that we did not put them into the

613
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: contest this past week. We wrote him as dogs for

614
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: several weeks. We jumped off this week. Dave Canalis, coach

615
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: the Panthers, has been saying that his starting quarterback is

616
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: week to week. He announced yesterday Bryce Young will be

617
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: the starting quarterback. He did not have a great game.

618
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: Four turnovers. You know they the defense cannot guard Ceedee Lamb.

619
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: Micah Parsons was dominant. I think he had two sacks

620
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 1: in the game. Just was all over Bryce Young, force

621
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 1: and fumbles. Was it just a it was a regression

622
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: game for him. I don't want to put this in

623
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: the contest, but you know, Aleen Panthers here.

624
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 3: No, I actually love Panthers here. I think it's a

625
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: good number. I have this a three and a half.

626
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 2: It's four.

627
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 3: Really yeah, again, it's not one, like we're not getting

628
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: two points of value.

629
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 2: It's nothing crazy, but yeah, I just I love the

630
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: way this.

631
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 3: Panthers team plays offensive league and especially the way they match.

632
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: Up for this Cardinals team defensively.

633
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: Cardinals are a team that they'll basically let you drive

634
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: up and down the fe they just can stop being

635
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 3: the red zone. And we kind of seen since the

636
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: Panthers have come back from that bye week that it

637
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 3: feels like that's one of the things that actually improved

638
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: with Bryce Young's game is his playing style inside the

639
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: red zone, his decision making inside the red zone. So,

640
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 3: like you just said, that was the worst game they've

641
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 3: had in weeks last week, and that to me is

642
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: the nervous part chat where it's like, did they get

643
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: a lot of bad habits once again? Did Bryce Young

644
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 3: get some bad habits again last week? And that are

645
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: in carror of this game because Arizona, as much like

646
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 3: to beat up on them, you know, they're a playoff

647
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 3: basically Borderland playoff team that's been overall played pretty well

648
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,479
Speaker 3: this season. Like they're a team that you know, if

649
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: Kyler shows up, they would probably be leading their division

650
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: this year. Like he's had a lot of games where

651
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 3: he's disappeared, so I mean you going into this no

652
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: the deal like Kyler could easily burn us back in

653
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 3: this Panthers team, like if he has a Kyler game,

654
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 3: because Panthers defense is terrible, like terror. I mean, they

655
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: made Cooper Rush look like an All Pro last week.

656
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: You look at the I've talked about these next Gen stats,

657
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: and you know there's twenty four different metrics that you

658
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: can compare a team to team, and you look down

659
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: the columns Panthers defense thirtieth thirtieth, thirtieth, thirty yeth thirtieth thirtieth,

660
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: right literally for every single one of them.

661
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: No, And it's like, and they don't there's no way

662
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 3: of hiding it because we already talked about it. I

663
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: think it was Derek Brown, like they've lost some of

664
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: the key guys early in the year that like they

665
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 3: already were thin, they lost their best basically their best defenders,

666
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: and it's like only gotten worse. So yeah, that's that's

667
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 3: why your hesitation here, Chad. I get there's other dogs

668
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 3: I like more. It's just I'm basically playing the model

669
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 3: in my faith in the Panthers where it's like this

670
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 3: Cardinals team, you know, we've seen it time and time again. Now,

671
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 3: if Kyler doesn't show up, they could easily lose these games.

672
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: And the fact that you can get plus one seventy

673
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: five right on the money line of the Panthers just

674
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 3: feels like it's too inflated for this, this Cardinals team.

675
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 1: I for a second there, I thought you were gonna

676
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: say you loved Arizona. And it's been such a it's

677
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 1: been such a year that if you had said that,

678
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: I honestly it would have made me feel worse than

679
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: any time we had contradicted each other the entire year,

680
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 1: because then I just would have felt like I might

681
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: as well be throwing darts, because if we're not on

682
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: the same side about Carolina, then what am I even

683
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 1: looking at right now? That's how that's honest one, that's

684
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 1: honestly how I would have felt about that game. That's

685
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: where my confidence would have gone. I might have had

686
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: to hang it up. Tennessee at Indy this is a

687
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: very weird game. Indianapolis is a four point favorite. If

688
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this right in the Action app and

689
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: on actionnetwork dot Com, where I can see the betting

690
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: ticket splits and the money splits the public, meaning the

691
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: tickets are coming in on Tennessee. But the money is

692
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 1: leaning Indy, And I don't know if you're seeing this

693
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 1: as well. I don't know if you're feeling this way,

694
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 1: like are people fading? Anthony Richardson, who reverted back to

695
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: pre benching days and against the Broncos, was completed just

696
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 1: forty four percent of his passes had two picks, Like,

697
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 1: are they are people banking on Tennessee starting Mason Rudolph?

698
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: What are you seeing here?

699
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: Yeah?

700
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 3: I would say that it's definitely Mason Rudolph to me

701
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 3: that like they want to because we already talked about

702
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: coming into last week that was historical what Tennessee's done.

703
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 3: I'm not covering. I mean obviously has the number of

704
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 3: like it's rare and unique teams only have two covers

705
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 3: whatever they're at at this point through the season, Like

706
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 3: usually the books over adjust just to because they know

707
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: that the public's gonna keep fading that that side, and

708
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 3: like this this Honestly, I want to be on the Colts,

709
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 3: I'll be honest.

710
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: Jef like coming so do I like? But like I can't, Oh,

711
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 1: we really.

712
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 3: Gonna like Mason Rudolph scasof though, That's all I was

713
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 3: gonna say to you, are we really gonna let that

714
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: screw us?

715
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: No, No, honestly, it's it's not Mason Rudolph. To me, it's

716
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: why did this number move down? Like it moved from

717
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: four and a half to four, which is great, but

718
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 1: the money is on the Colts. So why would bookmakers

719
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 1: move this based on the public liking the Titans. That's

720
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 1: not I thought.

721
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: I thought it was because of the Mason Rudolph will Levis.

722
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: Then that, to me, is that's what I thought the

723
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: movement was. Like, I know it's not much, but I

724
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:27,880
Speaker 3: have them a full point better than will Levis.

725
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: So like, to me, this should keep going.

726
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 3: I think it should be a three and a half,

727
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 3: which again, right now I'm showing value on Tennessee.

728
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: I should be betting Tennessee. I know, but we've talked.

729
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 3: This Colts team has just been better all season at home,

730
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 3: especially Anthony Richardson has been better at home and this

731
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 3: so yeah, it's just I'm honestly.

732
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: Shocked that anyone's even betting the Colts.

733
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 3: I thought everyone's gonna be like, u's really pissed off

734
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: and burned about this team.

735
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: But you know, like we say, Chad just got to

736
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 2: burn the tapes and move on.

737
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 3: So I'm trying to I'm not trying to overthink it,

738
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 3: and I wanted to be on the colts here, but right,

739
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 3: maybe I'll just avoid this one because, like you just said,

740
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 3: it's it's historical, this Tennessee team, Like eventually it's going

741
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:05,959
Speaker 3: to come back around.

742
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 2: They're going to start covering some of these games because

743
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 2: it's just no team.

744
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: I mean, Evan probably has better numbers than I do,

745
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 3: but yeah, the fourth team is super Bowl Air to

746
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 3: be two and twelve against the spread or worse. So

747
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,280
Speaker 3: this is something we don't see, Chad. This is historic

748
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 3: since the Super Bowl era. This is the fourth team

749
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 3: to be this bad. So that's my fear here is

750
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 3: like we know it's going to come back around, Like

751
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 3: they're not going two and fifteen, right, Like they're going

752
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 3: to cover one or one or two of these ones.

753
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 2: At the end here.

754
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 3: So you're right, maybe maybe I should just avoid this one.

755
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: Well, I'll leave it on the list. We can see

756
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: what happens over the next four to eight hours. We're

757
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: certainly going to get some sharp calls about it because

758
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 1: people do like the cults here, and you know, maybe

759
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 1: we're willing to go back into the fire if Jonathan

760
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: Taylor has the courage to get back on that field,

761
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 1: to go back to practice after a rookie mistake and

762
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 1: an epic meltdown that I really do believe that cost

763
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 1: his team the game. You watch. I haven't watched Shane

764
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 1: Steichen's press conference postgame, and I haven't sort of looked

765
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,240
Speaker 1: for his quotes about that in the last forty eight hours.

766
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: But I did watch Sean Payton just because I love

767
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: Sean Payton. I think he's, you know, brilliant and funny

768
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 1: and one of the more honest coaches. And he couldn't

769
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:31,280
Speaker 1: even find the words to talk about that. Jonathan Taylor

770
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: drop of the ball before he got into the end zone.

771
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 1: That's it. That's the game. They're down thirteen points the Broncos.

772
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: We're winning our bet. Boennix was having a terrible game.

773
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: That was just epic. So if he can do it,

774
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 1: we can do it. Burn the tapes, Burn the tapes.

775
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 1: Detroit at Chicago. Guess what. Guess what Simon this no

776
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 1: no no, no, no, no, no no. This line has moved

777
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: from seven to six and a half. So somebody is

778
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 1: betting the Bears I bet they are, and it was

779
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: my first instinct, but then I remember how horrible the

780
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 1: Bears rushing defense has been, and I'm thinking, even without

781
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 1: David Montgomery, the Lions will want to take out their

782
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: frustration on someone and this like Caleb Williams when he's

783
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 1: throwing it, it looks like he's trying to throw the

784
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: ball through a brick wall every single time. No touch,

785
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 1: no arc, just the laser, absolute laser, every single time

786
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: he lets it go. I'm sure the Bears are the

787
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 1: right side here. I don't think you want to touch it.

788
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: I don't really feel like I need to touch it.

789
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 1: I think I think the Lions have something to prove.

790
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: They need to win. I think the Bears are They're

791
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: just trying to survive for the next three games.

792
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, seven and a half would have made sense.

793
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 3: I've been okay that that number makes sense because I

794
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 3: believe it was ten and a half and then went

795
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 3: down to nine and a half on that Thanksgiving game,

796
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 3: and we joked that game, if just one of those

797
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 3: field goals by Detroit I think they kicked four or

798
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 3: five feegals in the game, was a touchdown, they cover

799
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 3: that number like that. The Bears just got I think

800
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: we all realizing now they've they had a crazy stretch

801
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 3: that they got a really lucky, really fortunate and it

802
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: broke their way. And yeah, the Lions defense is so

803
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 3: banged up that if this was seven and a half,

804
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: I could have been convinced because it's like, we'll have

805
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 3: an opportunity for the back door right at some point.

806
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:36,399
Speaker 3: I mean, you know it's obviously on the books, mind

807
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: because you just said they moved it down now to

808
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 3: it's in the spot where every teaser in the world's.

809
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 2: Gonna have the lines on their side.

810
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 3: So that's that's the thing where it's like I I

811
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 3: old me and Chad would be hammering this Bear's number,

812
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: like this is the.

813
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 2: Trap of all traps, like lines.

814
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 3: I mean, from my perspective, I feel like they're gonna

815
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 3: win this by twenty points, right like you just said,

816
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: Dan Campbell's gonna take out all that on them this week.

817
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 3: And you know that was the lines in my memory

818
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 3: of their first low since that Bucks game, and we

819
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 3: remember we backed them the following week after that.

820
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: Buck so done.

821
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: They've won eleven in a row.

822
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 3: Right, so that yeah, so you know you expect that

823
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 3: major balance back spot here, but it's once again comes

824
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 3: down to the injuries. Chat like one of the injuries

825
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,120
Speaker 3: catch up to them. So maybe this is the one

826
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 3: favorite we get in because I do love the line,

827
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 3: especially at six and a half, but it's.

828
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 2: Like, oh man, all the injuries they have, it's just

829
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: hard for me to put a number on this Lion's

830
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: team right now.

831
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 3: It's like, I know how great they are, but the

832
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 3: problem is can they get stops defensively? And you know,

833
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 3: me and Chad have a little peatsdy. We were up

834
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 3: it was it twenty one points at half with this

835
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 3: Lion's team and we got back door by this exact

836
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 3: Bears team.

837
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:46,760
Speaker 2: So it is tough.

838
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: Well, I got a different favorite that is a huge favorite,

839
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: and I want to see I want to see if

840
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 1: I could entice you a little bit. Uh, But yeah,

841
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 1: I think Lions they win this going away. The Bears

842
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 1: are a terrible, terrible football team. They they really can't

843
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: stop the run, and that's they can't protect the passer

844
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 1: and they can't stop the run. So one thing, even

845
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: if the Lions can't pressure the quarterback, they will be

846
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 1: able to run on this Bear's defense, right And.

847
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 3: I mean you'll agree since they made a coaching change.

848
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:26,479
Speaker 3: They have not looked prepared in either game.

849
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: No, as soon as Thomas Brown stopped being the offensive

850
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: coordinator and started being the head coach, they are What

851
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: are they losing?

852
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 2: Like?

853
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 1: Is it thirty four to nothing in the first quarters?

854
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: Like it's pretty honest to god, It's just it's embarrassing

855
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 1: how bad it is. So we'll go back to it.

856
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: I put it on the list. We can, we can

857
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: discuss it on Thursday. New York Giants at Atlanta. Atlanta

858
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: is a double digit favorite. Not surprising how many tickets

859
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: are on the Giants right now sixty four percent and

860
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 1: the game open to ten is double digits. A digit

861
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: too far? Is that what the public is saying to

862
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: back the Atlanta Falcons? Has have we reached the tipping

863
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: point the public? Not even the public will back Kirk

864
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 1: Cousins as a ten point favorite.

865
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 3: I agreed, are Like, we would be hammering this number

866
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 3: if we didn't think the Giants might have quit in

867
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 3: the season.

868
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 2: That's the fear.

869
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:32,720
Speaker 3: It's like they are so bad in so many different ways,

870
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 3: and they've had such brutal injuries this season, and like,

871
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 3: do you know who their quarterback is?

872
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: This week, Is it Drew Lock, Like, is it Tim Boys?

873
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 1: Is it timbo? I mean that's the problem is, like

874
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 1: I'd love to hit the Giants right now because the

875
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: Falcons really shouldn't be ten point favorites against anybody, but

876
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: I want to know who's playing quarterback.

877
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,800
Speaker 3: People are already talking that they're gonna cut Kirk after

878
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 3: this season, which was just crazy to think they'll eat

879
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 3: all that dead cat money. But because the success of

880
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: the the Broncos this season, the sex of the you know,

881
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 3: the Bills, what they've done with all that dead cat money,

882
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 3: that maybe they're just like, no, you can you can.

883
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: Make it work. Oh it's terrible.

884
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 3: That's why I hate this number check because it's like

885
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 3: it feels too easy, Like who is taking Atlanta minus ten?

886
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:22,919
Speaker 3: Like Kirk cuttins right, But people are like, I we've

887
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 3: seen it now, Like people are putting this in their teasers,

888
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 3: their parlays, like they're hammering this Atlanta number because everyone

889
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: just thinks what we just talked about that the Giants

890
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 3: have given up a quid in the season. But yeah,

891
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 3: another line that's extremely tempting. There's another huge dog this

892
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 3: week that I do not like at all, but this

893
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 3: one I could be talking to, like if you came

894
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 3: in here on Thursday and you're like, it's ten and

895
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 3: a half now and it's Drew Lock.

896
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:46,720
Speaker 2: Like we know it's not Timbo.

897
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 3: We know it's gonna be Drew Lock, who would be

898
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 3: shocking because I think he had a walking boot in

899
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 3: his foot like a week ago.

900
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 2: I'd be in.

901
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 3: I honestly would be in on the Shins team. But

902
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: if it's Tim Boyle, I don't think I can get

903
00:44:58,719 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 3: there like he is.

904
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 2: He's a fourth stringer.

905
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 3: He's the guy that you just you bring him in

906
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 3: as an insurance policy. He was never supposed to play,

907
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 3: but now he's playing. So I can't do it. If

908
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: it's Tim Boyle.

909
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 1: How crazy would it be if we're going to the

910
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 1: Mattress with Drew Locke, who we promised ourselves when he

911
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,280
Speaker 1: was in the Broncos we would never bet on again.

912
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: This is what the bookmakers do to us. They give

913
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 1: us such tempting, tempting numbers.

914
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:30,720
Speaker 2: It's an insane number.

915
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 1: It's an insane they are. It's not even tempting.

916
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 2: They're plus four hundred to win outright.

917
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: It's a challenge. They're challenging us.

918
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: Oh, my god.

919
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 3: I love it though, And it would be so Giants

920
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 3: to do to win this game and get rid of

921
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 3: them having the number one pick, Like they're the type

922
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 3: of team that would do that.

923
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: Oh, I have no doubt over the next three games

924
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: they're going to win a game, lose out on the

925
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: number one pick, and then and then the Giants ownership

926
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: are just going to fire day Ball and Joe Sean.

927
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: That's what's going to happen. Probably should have already Minnesota

928
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: at Seattle. Seattle is three at bet three six five,

929
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 1: but at least when we came on the air, they

930
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 1: were at three and a half at some other places.

931
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: I'm just checking the update right now. It's three across

932
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 1: the board except for one place. I bet it at

933
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:22,799
Speaker 1: three and a half this morning on Seattle. I think

934
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: there's too much Sam Darnold love right now. I think

935
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: even before the Bears game, the conversation was about how

936
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 1: he is going to get paid, how amazing he's been playing,

937
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 1: what a career resurrection. Should the Vikings find a way

938
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: to keep him. He beats the Bears in prime time,

939
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: and there's more fawning about how amazing he is. He

940
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 1: did throw sixteen in completions, and the Vikings line I

941
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 1: do think is in some serious trouble. Cam Robinson had

942
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 1: a terrible game playing against a weak Bears defensive line,

943
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 1: letting guys get by him, a lot of false starts.

944
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 1: Brian O'Neal, their right tackle in and out of the

945
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 1: game injured. He was sort of the guy keeping it together.

946
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: And this Seahawks defensive line is just much better. Leonard

947
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,800
Speaker 1: Williams especially this year, has been amazing. And Sam Donald

948
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 1: just keeps the ball for so long, letting his routes

949
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: come open down the field. It's pro jos. Game tickets

950
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 1: are on Minnesota, money's on Seattle. I like the Seahawks.

951
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 3: I agree, just because once again it's another game. It's

952
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 3: all about the number, Like we're gonna have basically three games,

953
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: and we love because they're all three and a halfs.

954
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 3: But it's all numbers. I really like and matchups. I like, right,

955
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 3: you just talked about this Vikings team. They deserve all

956
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 3: the respect like this, this fan base everybody like you know,

957
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 3: only really really smart professionals, which I am clearly not one,

958
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:57,280
Speaker 3: believe in this team head of this season.

959
00:47:57,320 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 2: And Colin Cowhard, I should say, and for their reasons.

960
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:03,439
Speaker 3: I just didn't understand where they really thought that Kevin

961
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 3: O'Connor could solve this whole Sam Donald thing. And like

962
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 3: you just talked about, when he doesn't have his best

963
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 3: games chat, he still makes these big time throws this

964
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 3: season like he has all season. They need him to

965
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 3: come through and you know, I can't. I can't tell

966
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: you how many games they've had this year that have

967
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 3: been coin flip games that they somehow won and now

968
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 3: they control their destiny. They can be the fucking one seed.

969
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 3: It's pretty crazy the spot this Vikings team is that

970
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 3: from having you know, a six and a half win

971
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 3: total to they might be the one seed with a

972
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 3: nameless defense and Sam Donald running the offense. It's it's

973
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: bizarre orbits while we love football, and it's you know,

974
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 3: a reason here I wanted to be on Seattle for

975
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,239
Speaker 3: what you've just talked about that I knew this Vikings

976
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 3: team was gonna be inflated, especially after their win on

977
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 3: Monday night. We talked about they're coming off a short

978
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 3: week having to travel to Seattle, but we don't know

979
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 3: the update.

980
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 2: I don't know if you have an.

981
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 1: Update, but I don't know is Gino's playing.

982
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: So it is that he's gonna play. Yeah, I would

983
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,760
Speaker 3: need to see more than that though, because he basically

984
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 3: had one of those if his leg was planted, he's

985
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 3: getting a new acl MCL right. Like the way that

986
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 3: guy shot right to his knee. I don't want to

987
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 3: call it a cheap shop because I guess the guy

988
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 3: was falling at the time, but it was like it

989
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 3: was one of those they've changed your rules because of it,

990
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 3: and they didn't call it flag in the play because

991
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 3: he was apparently.

992
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 2: He was airborne one of his leggers in the air.

993
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, this matchup for this Vikings team, we have

994
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,320
Speaker 3: enough data this season. They just play close games, right overall,

995
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 3: that's most of their games are one possession games, and

996
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:37,239
Speaker 3: we've seen that the second half when they've gone off

997
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 3: game script, they've tend to struggle. Now, it doesn't has

998
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 3: not hold true these last couple of weeks, right, Sam

999
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 3: Darnold has been great in the second half of a

1000
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 3: lot of these games, and they've drove the.

1001
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 2: Field and scored a lot of touchdowns.

1002
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: But heading to the last week, we saw Seattle's defense

1003
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 3: have kind of improved. Those last couple of weeks so

1004
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: it's a tough one. Chat we're had three and a half,

1005
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 3: I agree with you, but once this dips to three

1006
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,720
Speaker 3: two and a half, I kind of like the Vikings honestly,

1007
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 3: because I do think they are the better team.

1008
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 2: The same thing I felt with Green Bay last week.

1009
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 2: It's like your.

1010
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: Division is so good that when they get outside their division,

1011
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 3: they've just been dominating the competition. Like Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota,

1012
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 3: they've been incredible outside their division. So yeah, it's all

1013
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,399
Speaker 3: about the number year from each have three and a half.

1014
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 3: I am totally on board with you. I'd put this

1015
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 3: in the contest, but the way the professionals are betting

1016
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 3: this and they're hitting this number, it might be down

1017
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:28,879
Speaker 3: to two and a half come contest time.

1018
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: So it'll be tough for us to get this one in.

1019
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 1: I think it will be down to two and a half.

1020
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: By the way, this is one of three games that

1021
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 1: I had as my EXAC decision and I pulled off

1022
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 1: only because even though Gino is playing like I'm still

1023
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:50,280
Speaker 1: a little anxious about it. Like you said me too. Also,

1024
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 1: you can't get like I want to give a game

1025
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,280
Speaker 1: where I know the majority of the places are offering

1026
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 1: the number that I like, and nobody's really offering their

1027
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 1: three and a half if anymore, which is what I

1028
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: bet it at. So it did not make it is

1029
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: my exact decision, but we will get there. Simon. Can

1030
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 1: you name the best ticketing app in the United States?

1031
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1032
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:21,400
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1033
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 1: how much I love going to live events. I especially

1034
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 1: love it during the holiday season. I love making memories

1035
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:37,360
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1036
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:43,960
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1037
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 1: The other day, we were on game Time checking out

1038
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 1: NBA games, Nixon Nets games that my son and I

1039
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: can go to during the holiday season because we want

1040
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: to catch more games together because we've had so much

1041
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:05,920
Speaker 1: fun on our sportacular events. I'm in the app right now,

1042
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 1: and look, I'm looking around, and it can be the

1043
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 1: perfect gift to take someone you love to an event

1044
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 1: I might end up going. Let's say I want to

1045
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 1: go to the Yukon Huskies see him play. I got

1046
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 1: a top eleven team in the country, I got the

1047
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:31,920
Speaker 1: two time defending national chance. I'm getting in for fifty bucks.

1048
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,320
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1049
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:39,080
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1050
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,560
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1051
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:44,960
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1052
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,879
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1053
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1054
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:59,080
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1055
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: Download game Time today. What time is it? Game Time?

1056
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:07,720
Speaker 1: New England at Buffalo Buffalo is a fourteen point favorite. Simon.

1057
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 1: We have taken one massive number this season. Will this

1058
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:13,279
Speaker 1: be the second one?

1059
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:17,919
Speaker 2: I don't am I sucker? I love the Bills. What's

1060
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: going on?

1061
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 1: I love them?

1062
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 2: The bills make me.

1063
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 1: Throw your hands something, throw your hair back.

1064
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:30,240
Speaker 2: Come on now, the bills.

1065
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 4: I'm making it happen now.

1066
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,720
Speaker 2: I love that though, isn't this too easy?

1067
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 3: But then we overthought it. Last week we knew the

1068
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 3: Rayvens was probably gonna be too easy.

1069
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,240
Speaker 2: It was. It was too easy, Simon.

1070
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 1: I love we loved the Lions. A few weeks ago

1071
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 1: we made the Lions minus ten. I forget who was

1072
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 1: against our big balls better of the week? Maybe it was.

1073
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,600
Speaker 2: Actually that was no we had that minus fourteen. I

1074
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:54,799
Speaker 2: think the.

1075
00:53:55,719 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: Titans, right, Yeah, like dread Mayo is now going out

1076
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 1: on press conferences and throwing his offensive coordinator under the bus.

1077
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if that's the tipping point

1078
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,879
Speaker 1: for the Patriots to just say, screw it, We're going

1079
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 1: to get Mike Vrabel and we're rebuilding this whole thing

1080
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:22,839
Speaker 1: from scratch because they're so disappointed in that and this team,

1081
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:27,280
Speaker 1: and he did not handle that well. Like Josh Allen

1082
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 1: is a double digit fave, doesn't scare me. Covering that

1083
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 1: number at fifty four percent at home, it's a bit

1084
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 1: higher if the spread is fourteen or more. Obviously, the

1085
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 1: sample size on that is tiny. I don't see this

1086
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 1: team letting up. I think they're having too much fun.

1087
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 1: I think he's gunning for an MVP. He just saw

1088
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: Lamar to five touchdowns against the Giants. I am not

1089
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 1: afraid to bet the Buffalo Bills here.

1090
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and again, I already know I'm gonna get a

1091
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 3: lot of texts from a lot of pros like what

1092
00:55:00,560 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 3: about all the injuries to the Bills defense? And you

1093
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 3: know my pushback would be they're coming off a Rams

1094
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 3: and Detroit game, like two of the class the nfcs

1095
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:15,640
Speaker 3: that are just you know, those are really high powered offense.

1096
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:17,959
Speaker 3: We don't have those same worries with this New England team.

1097
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 3: And you know, the Josh Allen factor, like you just

1098
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 3: talked about, We've never seen a quarterback play at this

1099
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:26,279
Speaker 3: type of level these last couple of weeks. Like I

1100
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 3: don't know if the stat I saw was true, but

1101
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,240
Speaker 3: it was basically that he had seventeen touchdowns in zero

1102
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 3: turnovers in the last like four weeks. Like it doesn't

1103
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 3: it doesn't even sound like real numbers, but that's that's

1104
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,840
Speaker 3: how Dominie's been offensively. So you're right, it's really a

1105
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,359
Speaker 3: bet on We know they're gonna get points offensively. Can

1106
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 3: can this Bills team get stops against Drake May?

1107
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 2: We expect he should.

1108
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 3: Obviously, the fear for us would be this is a

1109
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 3: nice rest game for this Bills team, right, they don't

1110
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 3: need to go all out, Like there's no reason for

1111
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 3: them to really blow.

1112
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 2: This team out.

1113
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,399
Speaker 3: But I still think in the back of his mind,

1114
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:01,799
Speaker 3: Josh Allen's pushing for the MVP. I just can't see

1115
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 3: him stepping off the gas like he's gonna yeah, right, offensively,

1116
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 3: I feel like him and Joe Brady are just gonna

1117
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 3: keep pushing it.

1118
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I like it.

1119
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 3: It's just it sucks that it's such a huge number,

1120
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:15,839
Speaker 3: Like it just feels so gross to do. But I

1121
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 3: personally have this at seventeen and a half. It's fourteen

1122
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 3: just a lot of value. But it's like, man, this

1123
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 3: is such a huge, huge number for a divisional game.

1124
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 3: But I think we both can't avoid a rate. I

1125
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 3: think we both love this.

1126
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 1: Bill side Matt Mitchell, feel free to weigh in in

1127
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:37,799
Speaker 1: the chat or vocally as our resident Buffalo Bill's super fan.

1128
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 1: How are you feeling about this game? Do you have fears?

1129
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 1: Will you yell at me if I make this my

1130
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: EXAC decision? Because this was one of the three games

1131
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 1: I wanted to make my EXAC decision.

1132
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 5: I guess my only concerner would be whether it's a

1133
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 5: big number. But yeah, I'm not feeling particularly anxious about this,

1134
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 5: and the vibes are indeed strong. Also, it's their first

1135
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 5: time back home and a little while, so they'll be

1136
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 5: quit a celebratory atmosphere among the scumbags of Western New York.

1137
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 2: God bless them.

1138
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:11,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, no, wind very cold looks like under twenty degree

1139
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,200
Speaker 5: at kickoff kind of games. But yeah, I don't know

1140
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 5: how you could feel excited about taking New England Buffalo

1141
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,360
Speaker 5: Bill's executive decision, the.

1142
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 4: Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

1143
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 5: Are you your honor's execute executive decision?

1144
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 1: Minus fourteen? No fear, It's weird. I started researching it,

1145
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: and I'm like, what is this sensation I'm getting where

1146
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 1: I want to back the Buffalo Bills at minus fourteen.

1147
00:57:45,320 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 1: The other game on my list San Francisco at Miami Miami.

1148
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I thought it was this game.

1149
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: It was Miami's a one and a half point favorite.

1150
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 1: We talked about a Sunday night. I was leading Miami.

1151
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: You were intrigued. The tickets are on San Francisco. The

1152
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 1: money is Oni Miami right now. To me, the strength

1153
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 1: of the Dolphins is their short passing game top four

1154
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 1: and EPA per play for passes under ten yards time

1155
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:10,919
Speaker 1: to throw under ten yards fastest in the league. That's

1156
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,440
Speaker 1: where the Niners defense is the weakest. What has your

1157
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 1: research shown you? Are you feeling similar to me?

1158
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1159
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 2: Honestly, we talked Tonday night.

1160
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 3: I like the Miami with you, and it was just

1161
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,960
Speaker 3: really about the number. I mean, I personally thought my

1162
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 3: mode would have it at minus three does and it's

1163
00:58:25,760 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: only minus two.

1164
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 2: So it's I think it's in the locks of a.

1165
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:30,959
Speaker 3: Lot of professionals viewing that you know, this Miami team

1166
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 3: does kind of suck, and that you know, as much

1167
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,880
Speaker 3: as we bashed this forty nine ers team, it's going

1168
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 3: to come back the other way, and we saw that

1169
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 3: last week. But now you know, if they catch one

1170
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 3: of those picks by Stafford, if Deebo catches one of

1171
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 3: those passes, they're favorite in this game, no doubt. I mean,

1172
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 3: they're probably a minus two and a half. We're getting

1173
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,919
Speaker 3: great value on Miami. So that's that's my pushback here,

1174
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 3: is that.

1175
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:55,800
Speaker 2: We're not getting a great number.

1176
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 3: Like this number feels pretty right, like both these teams

1177
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 3: incredible desperate further playoff lives. You know, Kyle Shanahan is

1178
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 3: the teacher here, like he's going against the student and

1179
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 3: his former coach, and we've seen that kind.

1180
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 2: Of work in Shanahan's favor in the past. But uh yeah,

1181
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 2: it's just all the injuries to the forty nine ers.

1182
00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 3: I still feel like there's value on this Dolphins team,

1183
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 3: especially once again.

1184
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 2: If there's no Trent Williams. Once again.

1185
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 3: We've talked about those numbers with Purdy, like he's a

1186
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:29,920
Speaker 3: different quarterback, especially when he's worrying about the block of protection.

1187
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:33,400
Speaker 3: And Miami sneakily has a pretty good pass rush, Like

1188
00:59:33,440 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 3: they're not a team that doesn't have guys to get that.

1189
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 3: I mean, Chop Robinson, say what you want about the

1190
00:59:37,720 --> 00:59:39,520
Speaker 3: kid as a rookie, he's kind of turned it around here.

1191
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:43,040
Speaker 3: This is the second half of the season, So yeah, Chad,

1192
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 3: I don't know. Maybe we'll come around more so on

1193
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 3: Miami on Thursday, but as we say it right now,

1194
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 3: I still like them. I'm I'm not gonna force to

1195
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:51,160
Speaker 3: be one of our five. But it's like, I am

1196
00:59:51,200 --> 00:59:53,920
Speaker 3: really intrigued with this game and this number, just because

1197
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:56,400
Speaker 3: I think there is value still on this Miami side.

1198
00:59:57,120 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: So the reason I didn't make it my exact decision

1199
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 1: and I leaned Bill is something you just said in

1200
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 1: the middle. It feels like the Niners get a pick

1201
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 1: and this is a different number, and I feel like

1202
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 1: I feel like the books are saying to me, take

1203
01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:23,720
Speaker 1: the short favorite. That's what we want you to do, right,

1204
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: And even though the money has been coming into Miami,

1205
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 1: and I like seeing that I'm on the right side

1206
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 1: of the wise guys. Right now, there's something about it

1207
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 1: that is keeping me from sort of exuberant irrational confidence.

1208
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 3: Well it's come down. It did touch two and a

1209
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 3: half chat, so your initial read was right. We did

1210
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 3: our show Sunday night Monday morning. At one point it

1211
01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:43,920
Speaker 3: touched two and a half, and then we saw a

1212
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 3: professional money hit the forty nine ers and it came

1213
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,200
Speaker 3: back down to okay, one and a half one, So

1214
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 3: it is. It is a pretty split game. I will

1215
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 3: say that.

1216
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 1: All right, there you go. So something my spidy senses

1217
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:56,960
Speaker 1: are tingling that it's not perfect for me. Whereas the bills.

1218
01:00:57,440 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 1: As soon as you said you've got this at seventeen

1219
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 1: or seventeen and a half and we're at fourteen, I'm like, yeah,

1220
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 1: all right, that's what I needed to hear. Jacksonville at

1221
01:01:05,880 --> 01:01:10,040
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. This line has flipped. It's gone

1222
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: from Jacksonville plus one to Raiders plus one. I don't know.

1223
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: I guess like we take the Jags, but I don't

1224
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 1: want to do anything with this game.

1225
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 2: That's fair. Yeah, I bet the Jags.

1226
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 3: I threw them in a couple of teasers because it

1227
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:32,480
Speaker 3: was plus one and a half. And you're right, like

1228
01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 3: a couple books have now flipped in the Jags. Your

1229
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 3: favorite which we talked about was going to happen Sunday night.

1230
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 2: If you want to avoid it for right now, I'm

1231
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 2: fine with that.

1232
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:44,120
Speaker 3: I might have a better opinion come Thursday, because yeah,

1233
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 3: I'm people are clearly can tell.

1234
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 2: I love Mac Jones and the Shaguars offense right now.

1235
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 3: They're just a fun team that can move the ball

1236
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 3: and vice versus. This Raiders team just looks dreadful, totally quit.

1237
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,440
Speaker 3: I mean miracle cover last night. I think they had

1238
01:01:59,440 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 3: three field is to get the back door.

1239
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 1: They're just terrible, and they had the multiple special teams miscues,

1240
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 1: block kicks, block punts, I gues. It's a pathetic team. Uh,

1241
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:17,920
Speaker 1: we can talk about again on Like in my notes,

1242
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:26,439
Speaker 1: I'm like Mac Jones is irrationally confident. Yeah, a guy

1243
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 1: who is named Mac Jones. Do you know what I mean?

1244
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 1: He walked, he swaggers, he walks around like he owns

1245
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: the place.

1246
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,200
Speaker 3: Oh but the one he's barking, the d lineman who

1247
01:02:34,240 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 3: could snap him in half like a twig I'm just like,

1248
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 3: this dude's the fucking worst.

1249
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's he's such a punk.

1250
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 3: But it's perspective too though, right, because when Josh Allen

1251
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 3: does I'm like, Oh, this guy's fucking hilarious.

1252
01:02:45,120 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 2: He's the man. Well Mac Jones does it, It's like,

1253
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 2: shut the fuck up, Mac Jones.

1254
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:55,360
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is, you know, six eleven, four hundred pounds

1255
01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 1: and runs like a gazelle and has a can for

1256
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 1: an arm and is gonna win the mac Jones is

1257
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: a guy who alienated his teammates in New England, is

1258
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 1: now a backup on the worst team, one of the

1259
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:11,040
Speaker 1: worst teams in the league. So Tampa Bay at Dallas,

1260
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 1: we both leave Dallas on Sunday night. The lines moved

1261
01:03:15,520 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 1: in that direction four and a half to four? Is

1262
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 1: it three and a half in some spots at four

1263
01:03:19,360 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: at BET three sixty five, Like, Dallas is clearly better.

1264
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,760
Speaker 1: With Micah Parsons, he's been a menace since coming back.

1265
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 1: Seven and a half sacks since he came back. Here's

1266
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:33,320
Speaker 1: the wild card to me, which I don't think is

1267
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 1: getting discussed enough. Deron Bland, their cornerback. He came back

1268
01:03:38,640 --> 01:03:42,360
Speaker 1: from a fractured foot a month ago with both of

1269
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: them in the lineup. They're three and one, and now

1270
01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: in context that lost to the Bengals kind of looks

1271
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: like a fluke. They seem to like Mike McCarthy, haven't

1272
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: stopped playing for him. We liked the Cowboys on Sunday

1273
01:03:58,640 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 1: just on instinct. I still like the Cowboys.

1274
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, model backs up too. This number should be three.

1275
01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 3: It's four to four and a half, like you're saying

1276
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 3: when it opened. Now, if you're lucky you can find

1277
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 3: a four. There's only a couple of books left. I

1278
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 3: still the four out there like this going down to

1279
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 3: three three and a half. I know people are going

1280
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:17,520
Speaker 3: to be like, these guys love all the home dogs

1281
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:19,560
Speaker 3: this week, But it's all about the numbers, right, Like

1282
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 3: we're getting a lot of the threes with the hook,

1283
01:04:21,880 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 3: and we're seeing that we're ahead of the movement. Right

1284
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:26,040
Speaker 3: the numbers are coming down so clearly we're on the

1285
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 3: right side.

1286
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 2: Of their professionals.

1287
01:04:27,280 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 3: And yeah, every pro I talk to the same view

1288
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:32,640
Speaker 3: as us. Right they're hitting the four and a half

1289
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys just because Tampa was a little inflated

1290
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:37,880
Speaker 3: because of that when they just had the week before

1291
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 3: and should they beat the Chargers, Sure, should they have

1292
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:43,440
Speaker 3: blown them out by double digits? No, that feels like

1293
01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:47,920
Speaker 3: a kind of a fluky game overall. So looking at

1294
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 3: this matchup with Tampa, mean chat, we've given them a

1295
01:04:51,440 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 3: ton of flowers. Right, They're a very complete team. As

1296
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 3: an Eagles fan, I don't want to play them in

1297
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,840
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Like if Baker's hitting their right and this

1298
01:04:57,960 --> 01:04:59,480
Speaker 3: defense is clicking with a lot of the guys they

1299
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 3: had who play even passed Super Bowls and they're veteran defense,

1300
01:05:03,440 --> 01:05:06,720
Speaker 3: they're they're a pretty scary team. But this is the

1301
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 3: exact spot they let down. Like we've seen a time

1302
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:11,880
Speaker 3: and time again with this Tampa team, after big wins.

1303
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 2: They kind of have letdown games.

1304
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:17,919
Speaker 3: You know, it's crazy looking back to Chad that they

1305
01:05:18,040 --> 01:05:22,960
Speaker 3: lost those games to Atlanta where it's like Kirk has

1306
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:25,040
Speaker 3: been terrible all season and some reason he just would

1307
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:27,760
Speaker 3: blow out the Stampa team and those two games they played.

1308
01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, like early in the year, I mean, you

1309
01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 3: took different positions on Tampa, and most of the times

1310
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 3: we took them were after big wins to fade them, right,

1311
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 3: It wasn't even when they were they were healthy at

1312
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 3: this point, right, like they upset Detroit, a game that

1313
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 3: burned us. Me and Chat were on Detroit that game.

1314
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 3: We hammered the Denver the following week, which looking back

1315
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 3: is kind of funny, but Denver went down there and

1316
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:52,200
Speaker 3: smoked them, right. I think they won twenty seven to

1317
01:05:52,240 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 3: seven or twenty six to seven, like they killed them. Okay,

1318
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,920
Speaker 3: the next week they beat the Eagles the following week

1319
01:05:57,960 --> 01:05:59,000
Speaker 3: day at a huge letdown game.

1320
01:05:59,040 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 2: Once again, I gets the land.

1321
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 3: So we've seen time and time again when they have

1322
01:06:02,200 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 3: these big wins, these like really tone setting wins, they've

1323
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:08,480
Speaker 3: had letdown games the following week, So we don't know

1324
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 3: what kind of game we're gett from Baker. But overall,

1325
01:06:10,320 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 3: I feel like this Cowboys team with Cooper Rush, they

1326
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 3: kind of know their identity here, which is just fource

1327
01:06:15,360 --> 01:06:18,880
Speaker 3: feed Cede Lamb. Like basically we're on the same playbook

1328
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 3: they have with Dak, but even more so, getting the

1329
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,840
Speaker 3: ball in Ceedee Lamb's hand makes them make plays. And

1330
01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 3: I don't really see anyone on the cornerback side that

1331
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 3: can really slow down or stop CD in this matchup.

1332
01:06:28,560 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 2: So I like us always a being it.

1333
01:06:30,280 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 3: I like us to cover this back toward this number

1334
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:34,200
Speaker 3: or even went outright like this is another game I'll

1335
01:06:34,200 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 3: throw in our mind on Robin like Cowboys.

1336
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 2: To me, they're a live dog right now.

1337
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:43,360
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. This just in from producer Gifford.

1338
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:47,840
Speaker 1: Jerry Jones just said on the radio, he promises this

1339
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 1: is real. So I'm entirely depending on Gifford. I've eaten

1340
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 1: a lot of raccoon. It's not uncommon at all. One

1341
01:06:56,840 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 1: of my favorites is squirrel. It's wonderful and I would

1342
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:04,160
Speaker 1: even ask for the brain of the squirrel. Delicious Seriously,

1343
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:11,240
Speaker 1: Jerry Jones today on the radio, go Cowboys, New Orleans

1344
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:13,200
Speaker 1: at green Bay. Green Bay is a thirteen and a

1345
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Is this the game you were talking

1346
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:19,520
Speaker 1: about a big favorite you like? Or was it the Bills?

1347
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:23,480
Speaker 2: No, that was the Bills. This is this game I

1348
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 2: honestly want to avoid beyond Green Bay.

1349
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:31,600
Speaker 3: But this feels like a letdown spot for a Green

1350
01:07:31,640 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 3: Bay team that's about to literally go through just a

1351
01:07:33,800 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 3: juggernaut like they have, you know, a Vikings team on

1352
01:07:37,680 --> 01:07:40,640
Speaker 3: deck that I feel like they know is that's the

1353
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:41,440
Speaker 3: game for them.

1354
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:43,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, this is tough.

1355
01:07:43,680 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 3: Like I was trying to find a way to get

1356
01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 3: on the Screen Bay team because they've honestly been so

1357
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:47,400
Speaker 3: good to me.

1358
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 2: But knowing that this is coming up is their last.

1359
01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 3: Tough game of the season against Minnesota, it's one that

1360
01:07:52,480 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 3: can define their playoff seating, I could just see this

1361
01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:58,480
Speaker 3: being a letdown spot. And yeah, it's what, don't know

1362
01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 3: who quarterback is of New Orleans right now.

1363
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:02,080
Speaker 2: If it's that rookie once again.

1364
01:08:02,280 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 1: Well it's supposed to be Spencer Ratler, right, here's the.

1365
01:08:04,920 --> 01:08:06,840
Speaker 2: Way avoid it. If it's Spencer Ratler, I'd avoid it.

1366
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: That's that's what I would say. I want to avoid

1367
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:11,800
Speaker 1: it because of rather Also, Avin Kamara might not play,

1368
01:08:11,960 --> 01:08:14,320
Speaker 1: like he left that last game with a groin injury

1369
01:08:16,080 --> 01:08:20,439
Speaker 1: and he is not. There's no update on his status,

1370
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 1: so we don't know if he's playing.

1371
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:23,240
Speaker 2: That would actually be a big deal.

1372
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:25,679
Speaker 3: That would honestly push me towards Green Bay, just because

1373
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 3: he has been the life blow of that team, like

1374
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:32,559
Speaker 3: he really is. Yeah, he's been incredible this season, and yeah,

1375
01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 3: this it's just a train wreck. Everything is just so

1376
01:08:35,240 --> 01:08:37,760
Speaker 3: battering now in New Orleans. It's like they know they're

1377
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 3: tempted to with this number thirteen and a half, just

1378
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 3: keeping a runner of fourteen. They know what I want

1379
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 3: to do here, but I'm doing my best to fight

1380
01:08:43,400 --> 01:08:43,680
Speaker 3: at all.

1381
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 1: Are they tempting us? Are they challenging us?

1382
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:47,400
Speaker 2: That's true.

1383
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 1: I think we got a good list for Thursday, A

1384
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:53,240
Speaker 1: lot of home dogs, a couple of favorites. We got

1385
01:08:53,240 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 1: a big favorite with the bills. Really fascinating to hear

1386
01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:59,080
Speaker 1: what the wise guys have to say on Thursday with

1387
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:03,559
Speaker 1: sharp as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is presented by

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Speaker 1: will return with our next episode of the Favorites on

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page eleven am Eastern Thursday to

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01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:56,240
Speaker 1: talk Week sixteen Best Bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribed, leave us

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Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want, feedback as gift till

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01:10:01,479 --> 01:10:16,120
Speaker 1: next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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