WEBVTT - Trump Suggests US Take Over Gaza 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:12.680 This is Bloomberg Business Week, Insight from the reporters and 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.800 editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.799 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:25.760 Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:30.120 All right, folks, focus with us, because there's stuff headlines 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:31.960 constantly coming at us. We do want to talk to 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.800 you politics. That's what we begin on this Wednesday. President 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:39.760 Trump's idea of depopulating and taking Overgaza was broadly welcomed 0:00:39.800 --> 0:00:43.199 in Israel, with officials praising the surprise proposal as it 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:45.560 means to beeve up security following the war with Moss. 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:48.080 We were following that story late yesterday and obviously and 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:52.120 more into today, and just moments ago Tim noticing AFP 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:55.200 coming out and saying that this is from Secretary of 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.320 State Marco Rubio of the United States, saying that the 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:02.280 President only wants Palestinian to leave Gaza temporarily while the 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.640 territory is reconstructed. So again it feels like a little 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:07.720 bit of a rolling back of what we had yesterday. 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:09.560 Well to that point, the wit the White House saying, 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:11.520 and this according to Fox News and the Washington Post 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:14.240 that Trump has not committed to putting US troops on 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.520 the ground in Gaza. So some a fast moving story 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:19.399 here that we're continuing to get clarification on. 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.280 Yeah, and these are all important details. 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:23.480 I should point out though in the Arab world his 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:27.880 suggestion of taking over Gaza was taken very differently. Saudi 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:30.600 Arabia called the plan and an infringement on the legitimate 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.040 rights of the Palestinian people, and that was a position 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:34.960 echoed by governments across the Middle East. 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:36.920 So let's get to our round table with us. 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.600 Right now is Bloomberg Opinion International affairs columnist Mark Champion. 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:43.320 He joins us from London. And then in DC we 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.040 have Dana Stroll. She's senior fellow and research director at 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:49.360 the think tank the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:52.960 Among her roles in civil service include from twenty twenty 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:55.640 one to twenty twenty three, she was Deputy Assistant Secretary 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:57.920 of Defense for the Middle East, and that, of course 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:02.840 is the Pentagon's top civilians with responsibility for the region. 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:06.320 So great to pair pairing, I should say, to talk 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:08.040 about what's going on in the Middle East. 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.079 Welcome to both of you. Mark, I do want to 0:02:10.080 --> 0:02:11.040 start with you. 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.760 Your column today makes the point that President Trump's proposal 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.360 to take over Gaza maybe more serious than initially thought, 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:19.720 with language and the judgic similar to a real estate 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:22.600 developer's approach. Again, we've just got some headlines that there 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.760 seems to be some clarification that he doesn't necessarily maybe 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:27.079 mean to take it over completely. 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:30.040 But you say we should take this seriously. How come? 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.320 Well? I think that what I'm trying to say is 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.760 that it's clear that he and the people around him 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:41.040 think in these terms. They've been talking about this, you know, 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.000 Jared Kushner, his son in law who's in real estate, 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:48.480 Trump himself, and of course his special ENVOYE Steve Whitcock, 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.760 also in real estate, and this is you know, I 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.560 think we should take seriously that this is the way 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:58.200 that they think about these things. You know that said, 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:03.760 you know that this is clearly very unlikely to go anywhere. 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:08.040 And what worries me slightly is that you know, here 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:11.000 you are at a juncture. You're you know, you're in 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.120 a peace process that's in several stages. The second one 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:16.400 is going to come up faster and when we you know, 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:23.359 then think and it will require the kind of further 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:28.880 forward looking strategy and planning in order to get that 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:33.200 through that has not been there until now because Israel 0:03:33.240 --> 0:03:35.680 has not been willing and certainly how Maas has not 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:40.040 been willing to you know, to engage. So you know 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:43.480 what worries me is that, you know, the the administration 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.800 will be you know, thinking and talking in these terms 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.320 which really aren't going to go anywhere, and in the meantime, 0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:53.920 we have an unsolved problem that will simply return to fighting. 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.640 Dana, come on in here. I'm wondering if, if, given 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.360 your experience in the region, your experience when it comes 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:03.800 to dipplematic affairs, if you see this as having any 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.440 weight to it, or maybe perhaps an off the cuff 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:10.320 re mark or something that doesn't necessarily or should not 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.640 necessarily be taken seriously, how are you looking into it? 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:15.280 Well, first of all, I don't think it's an off 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.600 the cuff remark. I think it's quite consistent with the 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:21.719 negotiating strategy we've seen from President Trump and just his 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:24.760 first two weeks in office here, which is to create 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:29.400 a crisis mostly with words and threats animate his team 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:33.480 to then have backchannel negotiations which de escalate a situation. 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.719 And then largely if you look at Columbia or Mexico 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:41.000 or Canada, each government has come with modest or moderate 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:45.120 reactions that appear to address Trump's concerns, and then all 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.080 of a sudden there's a delay in what he has 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.560 promised in terms of a harsh response. In this case, 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:54.479 NETANYAHUO was about to face a fork in the road. 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:58.039 If the Gaza ceasefire moves to pace to Israel would 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:00.839 have had to end this war. And we seen with 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.520 all of these hostage releases Hamas come out in their uniforms. 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.480 It certainly doesn't look like the total victory that Prime 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:10.000 Minister in Nathan Yahu promised the Israeli people. Now, rather 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.279 than talk about what Israel's going to do, or the 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.360 Palestinians or the region, all the talk today is about 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.400 what the United States is going to do. It's totally 0:05:17.440 --> 0:05:21.000 shifted the dynamics and the focus of this conversation. And 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:24.000 I think Trump knows exactly what he's doing here. 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:25.200 Well, And that's a really good point. 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:26.960 And you know, Mark, come on back in, because I 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:30.320 think some of what we've been hearing is that, you know, 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:32.680 this is about President Trump taking the focus of what 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:35.839 really matters, what is the next phases of the ceasefire 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:40.840 between Hamas and Israel, and really figuring that out. Do 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.080 you agree that it's kind of like the flashy thing, 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:45.760 you know, look over here, but it kind of gets 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:48.039 everybody off the hook of thinking about what's the next 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:49.680 phase of the ceasefire. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.680 I think it is. I do think that's part of 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.440 what he's doing. It's simply that I don't believe he 0:05:56.600 --> 0:06:02.200 has a thought through strategy that he's trying to you know, 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:06.200 unlike with the trade, where you know, he had things 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:09.680 that he could get. I simply don't think that he 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:13.960 has a strategy that will be able, you know, to 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:18.240 to get a movement forward, to get the Israelis to 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:21.799 on board, to to you know, get to a place 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:28.800 where you can have a serious proposal and therefore, you know, 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:31.640 this kind of real estate talk and so on. I 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:34.920 think it is serious in the sense that it's a 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.640 real distraction, you know, you know, I take it that 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:39.960 he knows what he's doing when he's doing making you know, 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:45.000 throwing up all these you know, balls of fire in 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:45.719 the air. 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:47.520 So everybody's looking a different. 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.800 Way, but you need to have something underneath there that 0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:55.080 you can realistically get people to do, and that I 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:56.200 think is missing, you. 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:56.559 Know, Dana. 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:58.320 One of the things I think we keep thinking about 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.440 as we watch, you know, what's been going on in 0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:02.320 terms of threats of tariffs, then maybe a little bit 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.760 of a rollback and you know, or things change or 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.880 they're postponed in terms of their enactment. Having said that, 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:11.240 you know, we thought about with tariffs, what's the goal 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:15.240 here of President Trump? What's the goal here in your 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:20.440 view of President Trump in terms of meeting with Benjamin 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:24.520 Netanyahu and what his real aim is. President Trump's aim 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:28.680 is for Israel and for the Palestinians. 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.320 Well, first of all, what Trump wants is Israel's security, 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.240 and he doesn't want to see homos return to a 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.680 position of governance. And right now, the Arab leaders of 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:42.600 the rest of the Middle East aren't really cooperating. They're 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:45.720 unwilling to commit any sort of security presence or boots 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:50.320 on the ground, meaningful resources beyond humanitarian aid. Pressure on 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:53.920 the Palestinian authority in terms of what its leadership could 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:57.680 look like in gods or reconstruction or an actual day 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:01.160 after plan for Gaza. All he's heard from Arab leaders 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.160 is mostly know what they're unwilling to bring to the table. 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:06.600 And now you see the dynamics sort of shifting. 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.000 And of course next week the table is set for 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.960 King of Dullah of Jordan, followed by perhaps Egyptian President 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:15.960 c c All coming to Washington, and this is going 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:17.600 to be the focus. So you see a lot of 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:20.760 movement because of what Trump has said yesterday. 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:24.720 Mark, does it threaten relationships that the US has in 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:28.800 the region, such as President Trump's relationship with the Kingdom 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:30.600 of Saudi Arabia for example. 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:35.440 Well not at this point. I do think that there's 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.360 a huge difference in the situation between his first term 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:43.000 and this his second term. You know, in his first term, 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:46.720 the interests of the Gulf States and Israel were more 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:50.360 or less aligned. Their biggest concern was Iran, the threat 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:54.920 from Iran. And you know, so he was able then 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:58.720 to get the Abrams Accords, and after that the Biden 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.240 administration was able to talk to the Saudis a lot 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:08.040 about similar deals because there was no real impediment. And 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:10.880 this time around, since October twenty three, when you've got 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:13.439 the you know, you've had the war in Gaza in between, 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:17.959 and also the sort of interests of Saudi Arabian particular 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.840 have changed much more focused on the economy and stability, 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:25.160 less worried about Iran. You now have a different situation, 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:27.800 and I just think it's going to be quite difficult 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:31.880 to bring these different interests together where you've got the 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:35.400 domestic political concerns of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf State's 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.040 now focused on their own populations and their view of Gaza, 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.880 and it just makes it harder to bring everybody together. 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:45.680 And I'm not clear that you know he's got a 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:46.160 plan for. 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:46.720 That, Dana. 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.599 When we think about what is the plan though for Palestinians, 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.680 you know, Marx column gets into you know, Gaza is 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:57.640 a demolition site. You know, it's a mess, and to 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.800 think about the Palestinians going back there, I mean, how 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.599 do they live. There's no infrastructure, so there needs to 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:05.760 be some kind of rebuild. And you do wonder how, 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.680 you know, how this happens going forward, how do you 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:15.560 see it playing out in terms of Yeah, first. 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:19.079 Of all, the estimates for the cost of rebuilding Gaza 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:22.880 are upwards of eighty billion dollars and we're probably talking 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:26.720 about decades to clear out the rubble and rebuild Gaza, 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:30.959 so there's not really a temporary relocation of Palestinians. 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.000 And based on past US. 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:37.040 Experiences for example, post conflict reconstruction in Iraq and then Afghanistan, 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:40.520 the difference in Gaza is how concentrated the destruction is 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.880 and the closed nature of the border, so civilians can't 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.680 move around when we're trying to get ordnance, unexploded mines 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:49.400 and bombs and the. 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:50.199 Rubble cleared out. 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:53.320 So this was always going to be a huge challenge 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.000 just on the on the remarks about the region, what's 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:00.960 totally different from Trump's first term is this strategic nature 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:04.360 of the Middle East. Iran is more vulnerable today than 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.280 it ever has been because of Israel's military strikes that 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.080 have taken out its air defenses. But Charyl Ossatt has 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:13.160 gone in Syria. There's also a ceasefire in Lebanon and 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:18.000 a chance an opportunity to reimagine Lebanon without a stranglehold 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:21.440 of Hazbolah governance, and the same thing in Amasque in Gaza. 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:23.480 Trump can't do this alone. 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.679 He needs the Europeans, he needs the Arab leaders, and 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:29.880 I think there's an opportunity here for different leaders to 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:30.959 bring things to the table. 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:32.400 It's not only about Gaza. 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:35.600 Well, sticking on Gaza does raise the question of what 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:39.280 the future of Gaza is if this ceasefire holds, if 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:42.920 and when the war does end, what is the plan 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.040 for Gaza? If the United States does not go through 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.880 with the plan that President Trump said yesterday at the 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:49.400 White House. 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.560 On the current trajectory, without anything other than what we 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.559 see right now, Gaza is probably going to become something 0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:01.800 like Mogadishu on the Mediterranean. There's no non Hamas alternative 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.880 to governing Gaza. We've seen that there's plenty of Hamas. 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.240 Guys who have come out of the tunnels, put their 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:11.079 uniforms back on, are distributing humanitarian aid and telling people 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:12.640 we're going to help you get back to your homes 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:15.080 and we're going to help you rebuild. So that means 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:21.200 that Hamas reconstitutes, it regains governance over Gaza, and its 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:24.680 remaining leaders have already threatened to do October seventh over 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:25.520 and over and over. 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.360 Yeah, So hence you understand the difficulties in figuring the 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.200 way forward and what really is the next step. Dana, 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.840 thank you so much. Really appreciate your input. Dana Strol. 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.120 She's senior fellow and research director at the Washington Institute 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.920 for Near East Policy and someone who has been on 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:44.480 the inside within the US government really understanding and working 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:45.160 on this region. 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:46.600 Dana, thank you so much. 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:48.920 Hey, Mark, before we wrap up with you, we did 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.520 want to ask you about Russia and Ukraine, the role 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.920 the US and President Trump will play in what happens next. 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.880 We know US allies expect the Trump administration to present 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.360 a long awaited plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:03.480 at the Munich Security Conference in Germany next week. 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:04.640 This is coring to folks in the know. 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:09.040 You've got a second column out today about President Trump 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:12.360 saying he wants some of Ukraine's resources in return for 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:16.120 continuing aid. Your note, or you note that this is 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:17.319 a price worth paying. 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:23.560 Why, Well, first of all, it's something that President Zelensky 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:28.240 of Ukraine offered. So he put out this victory plan 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:33.400 last year, and one of the five baskets in there 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:38.720 was incentives for the West. But you know, it's quite 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:42.280 clear that he had a transactional Donald Trump in mind. 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.320 Incentives to say, look, you're not just helping us, you're 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:48.200 helping yourselves. 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:48.880 After the war. 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:50.120 We have a lot of. 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:54.480 Resources and you know, we're willing to open them up 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.800 and you know, make them available to you. So there's lithium, 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:02.320 there's you know, magnesium, there's you know a number of 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.400 different resources that would be useful in industry and the 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:09.120 ev industry and so on. So you know, he was 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:13.800 just it's already there offered. Trump has taken up the offer. 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:18.080 It's exactly what Zelensky was trying to do. And you know, 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:24.800 given Europe's weakness militarily, its failure to really build military capabilities, 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.320 you know what's became clear that the peace devan of 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:31.640 the Cold War was over. It really isn't able to 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:35.040 do it on its own. So Ukraine needs the US 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.360 and Europe, you know, is if you could describe this 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.520 as the price that Europe should be willing to pay 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.360 allowing the you know, the US under Trump to have 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.240 access to some of these materials, to keep quiet about it, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:53.120 because they need the American military, they need Trump Mark. 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:56.320 We're three years into this reward, though, you know, how 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.240 does how does this actually end it? 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.760 And just got about thirty seve and Mark. 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:05.040 Yeah, I mean, we'll see what the US plan actually 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:08.920 is on offer, and you know, there are ways to 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.680 do it. I've written about it, but it's you know, 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.840 it's it's really not going to be easy, and you 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:18.240 know an instant overnight deal is highly unlikely. 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.360 Yeah, there's a lot, it's a full plate, certainly when 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:25.120 you look around the world. Mark, thank you so much, 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.600 so appreciate you weighing in on both what's going on 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.040 potentially in the Middle East and then of course the 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.040 ongoing war there in Russia and Ukraine. Bloomberg Opinion International 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.360 Affairs columnist Mark Champion joining us from London. 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:42.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.720 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.280 on Applecarplay and the Android auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:51.479 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:53.520 Quite a bit of news in the world. 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.760 Adventure capital Cherry Ventures, it's a VC firm based in Berlin, 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.920 has raised five hundred million dollars in funding. That's the 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.840 back Europeans startups that come in from our Bloomberg team 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.560 across the Pond and the VC firm General catalyst Carol 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.560 checked this out they're getting into wealth management. They hired 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.800 twenty former staffers from First Republic Bank. Remember it's one 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:14.120 of the casualties of the twenty twenty three regional banking 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:16.680 crisis to create a wealth management business. I wonder if 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:18.040 you're gonna be able to at those two point five 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:22.880 percent mortgages that you're found for. Yeah, maybe the one 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:24.680 point nine percent that I've heard of. 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:25.760 Maybe not anytime soon. 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:26.000 Now. 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:29.480 Jeff Garbo is with us. He's US venture capital leader already. 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.880 Why he joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:32.120 Hello. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.160 Hello, We were remarking that it's been since pre pandemic 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:37.760 that you've actually been here in our studio. 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:38.560 It's been a while. 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.320 Yeah, it's great to be back. Thanks for having me. 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:41.720 Well, it's great to have you here. 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.280 You know, the M and A market has gone through 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.040 a lot, just like the rest of the world, right 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.280 through the pandemic, coming out of the pandemic, dealing with 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.640 a higher rate environment after a very low rate environment 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:56.040 in the cross of capital was nothing. How would you 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:58.680 describe the venture world right now? 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.680 So it's a very interesting time in the venture world 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.720 because the pace of change probably has never been greater. 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.120 I was just up on sand Hill Road on Monday 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.640 with a top tier AI investor and he was remarking at, 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:14.960 you know, how fast things He's amazed at how fast 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:18.360 things are going. And that's something that we kind of expect. 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:20.439 And I'm drawing a lot of analogies to kind of 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:22.480 what's happened in the internet through the Internet phase. 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:24.760 Is it really a fair comparison, do you think? 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.920 I think so? And is it you know, is it exact? 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:33.639 You know, time will tell, but you know, there is 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:37.439 so much change. There is so much you know, you 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:39.200 take a step back and look at the big picture. 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:41.919 What were we going to do on the Internet, Well, 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:43.520 we were going to do like I was going to 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.560 buy something. I was gonna, oh catalog. So by the way, 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:48.760 I would never have to make another catalog if I 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:50.400 was a company, it was just oh, I would put 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:51.639 it up there and then I would never have to 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:53.560 reprint it. And if I wanted to dislike do it. 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.400 But now you think about, you know, twenty five years later, 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.480 if the Internet would went down, you know, the economic 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:01.879 engine of the United States runs and the world runs 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.960 on the internet. So yeah, I was gonna go ahead, 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:06.560 and so I just think I think that has that 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.399 same possibility and a lot of you know, with AI 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.199 and some of the things that are happening now, but 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:15.199 the stack is being built and over time that will 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:17.600 grow up and build and then it will collapse, but 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:19.440 you'll you'll have just much more efficiencies. 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.359 Who's the company that sends out that huge catalog restoration hardware? 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.080 All right, yeah, we just got that. Yeah, I know, 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:26.120 they went right into the recycling. 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:27.840 Multiple ones usually, right, Yeah, it. 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:29.520 Was like they didn't get the memo of the nineties. 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:33.000 Is it moving even faster though? Than I mean, I 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.439 talked to somebody today today. He's in the AI space, 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:40.440 and he said, things move like we're talking three month 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.400 increments for revolutionary changes here. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:44.840 That's what it feels like. And it feels like it 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:47.720 is faster. And part of that maybe because of all 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:50.639 the capital that's out there. You know, we have multiples 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:54.840 of capital that are available through the venture pipeline. The 0:18:54.880 --> 0:19:00.160 world has become flatter, You've got more international participation both 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.520 from an LP perspective, putting money into the pipeline as 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:07.640 well as direct investments. So it just feels like, yeah, 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:09.440 and one of the by products of that has been. 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:12.800 You know, in two thousand and five there were five 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.320 thousand venture back startups. At the end of twenty twenty four, 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.880 there are fifty five thousand venture back startups in existence. 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.480 So a venture cycle is about ten years. You know, 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.040 through the math on that you've got multiples of venture 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:27.320 cycles in twenty years. 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.000 Is there a pets dot Com version of the AI 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:32.800 era and exuberance? 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:37.119 Well, you're always you know, it's funny because you always 0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:39.160 are we going to ultimately dot. 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:40.160 Com of course being. 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.080 A flop, a flop you could say web then too, 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:47.040 there's many of them, like you just through dot Com, right, 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.760 and like there was just models that didn't have any 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.520 kind of financials or profitability behind them, and it was 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:56.159 just like, yeah. 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.240 There will be companies that don't succeed, but that's not 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:02.560 that's not necessarily just part of an era. That's part 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:05.480 of the business. You think about, This is a portfolio 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:10.359 management business, and I have to produce outsized returns on 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:12.200 the amount of money that I raise if I'm a 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.000 venture investor, So I have to take some really big swings, 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:16.440 and you know what, they're not all going to work 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.800 out because we're making bets based upon what we know 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:23.199 today what is today will not be what happened was 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:24.600 what is going on in three years. 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:29.880 So do we get a bubble, there will be anyone, 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.480 There will be There will be over exuberants just. 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.359 Because there's so much capital. But you never get advances 0:20:35.440 --> 0:20:37.040 without taking those kind of leaps. 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:41.520 What was the reaction on sand Hill Road about deep Seek? 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:45.800 Well, I think the you know, we can't really comment 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:49.040 direct land companies, but I think at some point you 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:53.120