WEBVTT - Has DOGE Gone Underground?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. Let me tell you

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<v Speaker 1>we have a new star.

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<v Speaker 2>A star is born Elon pumped up on Mars Juson Kennemy.

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<v Speaker 3>He is the Thomas Edison plus plus plus of our age.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity.

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<v Speaker 4>I feel for the guy.

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<v Speaker 5>I would say ninety eight percent really appreciate what he does.

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<v Speaker 5>But those two percent that are nasty, they are I'll

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<v Speaker 5>be in four fos.

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<v Speaker 1>We are meant for great things in the United States

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<v Speaker 1>of America, and Elon reminds us of that we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have a fourth branch of governments called Elon Musk. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to Elon, Inc. Bloomberg's weekly podcast about Elon Musk. It's Tuesday,

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<v Speaker 1>April fifteenth. I'm your host, Joel Webber, sitting in for

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<v Speaker 1>David Papadopolos. It's tax day in the US, when the

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<v Speaker 1>federal government is supposed to collect its money, and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>it still came. But of course DIRS has been gutted

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<v Speaker 1>alongside many other federal agencies thanks to Elon and DOGE.

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<v Speaker 1>But the news stories about DOGE seems to have been

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<v Speaker 1>slowing down a little bit. What exactly is Elon and

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<v Speaker 1>his young team up to these days, We've got lots

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss, so we'll talk about that, and then we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna dig back into the roller coaster of Tesla's share

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<v Speaker 1>price as investors await next week's earnings call. Okay, let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with doche and to unpack the leaders. We're joined

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<v Speaker 1>by Elon Inc. Regular Dana Hole, Hi, Dana, Hey, Joel,

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<v Speaker 1>and a special guest and now friend of the podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>McKenna Kelly from Wired Magazine. Hello, McKenna, it's good to

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<v Speaker 1>be back.

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<v Speaker 4>Hey.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, I'm gonna start with a clip from October twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four at Maniston's Quare Garden, where Elon is on

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<v Speaker 1>stage with Howard Luttnik out of Trump rally.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, I got one question for it that I'm getting

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<v Speaker 2>out of here.

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<v Speaker 1>This is your stage. But we set up doge. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>how much do you think we can rip out of

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<v Speaker 1>this wasted six two point five trillion dollar Harris Biden budget? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we could do at least two trillion. Yeah, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>two trillion. And now here's Elon just a few days

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<v Speaker 1>ago with a new number.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm excited to announce that we anticipate savings in FY

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<v Speaker 5>twenty six from reduction of waste and broad by one

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<v Speaker 5>hundred and fifty billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>McKennon, we had two trillion. Now it's one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty billion, dramatically smaller. How realistic is even that number?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean when you look at the kinds of

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<v Speaker 4>areas that Dough just targeting right now, one of the

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<v Speaker 4>biggest cost savings I think you can argue is all

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<v Speaker 4>of these layoffs and riffs that have been happening across

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<v Speaker 4>the federal government. But at a lot of agencies, the

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<v Speaker 4>workforce is one of the cheapest parts of these agencies, right,

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<v Speaker 4>And so again it's like it's hard to predict, right,

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<v Speaker 4>if one hundred and fifty billion will actually be the number,

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<v Speaker 4>or if it'll be even less. It's hard to even

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<v Speaker 4>just trust Elon's goals here because even when we go

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<v Speaker 4>to like doache dot gov, where all of these savings

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<v Speaker 4>are supposed to be listed, a lot of these end

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<v Speaker 4>up being incorrect and even removed from the website. So

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<v Speaker 4>even if he claims to have met one hundred and

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<v Speaker 4>fifty billions, say like six months from now, I have

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<v Speaker 4>a hard time believing that number would even be accurate.

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<v Speaker 1>And Dana how Active, I know this is an ongoing

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<v Speaker 1>current on the show. How Active is. DOZE currently feels

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<v Speaker 1>like it's winded down a little bit.

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<v Speaker 3>I think I'm going to push back on that. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that people think it's winded down because everyone is

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<v Speaker 3>focused on tariffs and what tariffs are doing to the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>But DOZE is still very much embedded in all of

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<v Speaker 3>these agencies. You know, Antonio Gracias, one of Elon's best

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<v Speaker 3>friends who's on the board of SpaceX, is like at

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<v Speaker 3>the Social Security Administration, They're doing all this stuff with

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<v Speaker 3>Social Security and immigration and putting people on these dead lists.

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<v Speaker 3>And I just think that just because there's not maybe

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<v Speaker 3>the wall to wall media coverage that there was in

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<v Speaker 3>dozes early these days, does not mean that DOGE is

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<v Speaker 3>winding down. Elon's time as a special government employee will

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<v Speaker 3>sunset after the one hundred and thirty day mark. But like,

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<v Speaker 3>DOGE is very much embedded in all of these agencies.

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<v Speaker 3>And what McKenna has written about a lot is and

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<v Speaker 3>what we've seen too is like, you know, it's not

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<v Speaker 3>just this like band of kids that like got a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of publicity in the early days. People are now

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<v Speaker 3>in CIO roles, people have access to wide swaths of information,

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<v Speaker 3>and so I just think it's incorrect to sort of

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<v Speaker 3>act like DOGE is sort of on the way out.

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<v Speaker 3>It is not like they have more access to more

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<v Speaker 3>databases and more agency functions than ever, and there's like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, easily I don't know. I think our internal

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<v Speaker 3>list is over eighty people, but there are people like

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<v Speaker 3>at every agency accessing all kinds of data, and they're

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<v Speaker 3>still doing a lot of work, like hand in hand

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<v Speaker 3>with omb the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 4>I also think part of what's happening here too, and

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<v Speaker 4>a lot from my reporting and the reporting that you

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<v Speaker 4>guys have been doing at Bloomberg, is that at the beginning,

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<v Speaker 4>there are these stories of these teenage strike forces of

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<v Speaker 4>engineers descending on these agencies, and then also, I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>it was every single agency. And now I mean, the

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<v Speaker 4>way that I've been describing this to folks that I've

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<v Speaker 4>been speaking with recently is that we've kind of we're

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<v Speaker 4>kind of exiting the stage one of DOGE right and

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<v Speaker 4>entering what I've been kind of calling stage two, although

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<v Speaker 4>I don't have a proper definition for it yet because

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think we're in it all the way, but

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of what's happening at agencies specifically, I'm thinking

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<v Speaker 4>about the IRS. It's tax day. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>very technical things happening. Groups of engineers you know at

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<v Speaker 4>the IRS, and groups of doge folks and palenteer coming

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<v Speaker 4>in and trying to build these like unified API layers.

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<v Speaker 4>That doesn't really make a great headline. And then you

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<v Speaker 4>have to also have to think like does your audience,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, even understand fully what all of this means.

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<v Speaker 4>And so there's a lot going on, right, but it's

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<v Speaker 4>not this like headline grabbing, attention grabbing teenagers storming through

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<v Speaker 4>the State Department right Instead, they're sitting at computers at hackathons.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like we've gone from like feeding a USAID

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<v Speaker 3>into the wood chipper on a Saturday to like, let's

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<v Speaker 3>remake like technical infrastructure of how this agency actually operates

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<v Speaker 3>and like strip out all of the legacy software contracts

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<v Speaker 3>and make a new database that is run by like

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<v Speaker 3>private enterprise.

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<v Speaker 1>And McKennon, tell us more about your reporting on this,

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<v Speaker 1>because you have written about specifically at the IRS and

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<v Speaker 1>this API that you mentioned ANDEER Palenteer, of course, private

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<v Speaker 1>company that's legendary for being able to like create layers

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<v Speaker 1>of software that can kind of reach across databases. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the end goal here and what could this end

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<v Speaker 1>up looking like?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean it's really hard to predict what the

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<v Speaker 4>end goal is. But what's happening at the IRS specifically

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<v Speaker 4>is that doge specifically the doge lead at IRS, his

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<v Speaker 4>name is Sam forcos, he wants to build this unified

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<v Speaker 4>API layer across all of the IRS systems, basically creating

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<v Speaker 4>one kind of one cloud platform using Palentti your foundry

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<v Speaker 4>software right to be able to create different apps to

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<v Speaker 4>run LLLMS over IRS data. And he thinks he can

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<v Speaker 4>do this in thirty days. This is happening at other

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<v Speaker 4>agencies as well. A couple of weeks ago, I reported

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<v Speaker 4>that at the SOID Security Administration, for example, there were

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<v Speaker 4>doge folks who wanted to completely rebuild the SSA code base.

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<v Speaker 4>And again they think that they can do this in

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<v Speaker 4>like thirty days or a month, completely build it up

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<v Speaker 4>from the ground up and removing all of this legacy code,

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<v Speaker 4>whether that is assembly or coball, and get it ready

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<v Speaker 4>for whatever. You know, This next phase of doges and Danna.

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<v Speaker 1>When you think about what that looks like and how

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<v Speaker 1>it's currently used in tech, like, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>it could end up looking like?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's just like a lot of great privacy concerns

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<v Speaker 3>because the federal government always had like really strict rules

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<v Speaker 3>about who had access to what, and the inability to

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<v Speaker 3>kind of cross agencies was sort of by design, right,

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<v Speaker 3>because the federal government took very seriously the privacy of

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<v Speaker 3>American citizens. But if databases can talk to each other,

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<v Speaker 3>there's nothing that's stopping dose from like using IRS data

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<v Speaker 3>to coordinate with like it, you know, with ICE or

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<v Speaker 3>the student loan program, and like that is the big

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<v Speaker 3>fear of a lot of civil rights experts and student groups.

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<v Speaker 3>And you're seeing in a lot of the lawsuits that

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<v Speaker 3>have been filed great concern about the lack of privacy

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<v Speaker 3>controls that are going into these new systems. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>Musk is very focused on immigration and they you know,

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<v Speaker 3>they are talking a lot about social security and what

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<v Speaker 3>they're doing with social security and how so many immigrants

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<v Speaker 3>have Social Security numbers, and so I think that there's

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<v Speaker 3>just great concern about the lack of privacy controls as

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<v Speaker 3>these new databases are being built and like cross reference

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<v Speaker 3>across the government, you can argue that doing that is

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<v Speaker 3>more efficient and will help find waste and fraud. But

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<v Speaker 3>on the flip side, like the government now has unfettered

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<v Speaker 3>more and more access to everyone's information than it ever

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<v Speaker 3>had before.

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<v Speaker 1>Mc kenneth, where else has your reporting on DOGE taking

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<v Speaker 1>you here? We've got the IRS stuff, We've got HHS,

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<v Speaker 1>the Palanteer stuff is really interesting, Like what's the signal

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<v Speaker 1>through all of this, especially as you know, we start

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<v Speaker 1>to look forward to perhaps Elon maybe stepping back a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit at the end of his one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>thirty days as a special government employee.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, to piggyback off of what Dana was saying. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>that's the fear right now, is that one of the

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<v Speaker 4>administration's biggest goals right now is immigration and immigration reform,

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<v Speaker 4>if that's what you want to call disappearing people immigration reform.

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<v Speaker 4>But if you look at the agencies that DOGE has targeted.

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<v Speaker 4>You mentioned AJHS, which has a database of unac companied minors.

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<v Speaker 4>You look at IRS. Despite as much as what Elon

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<v Speaker 4>wants to say, immigrants in our country do pay taxes.

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<v Speaker 4>In a variety of ways billions and billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 4>every year, and then ssay as well, they end up

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<v Speaker 4>paying into Social Security as well. And so when you

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<v Speaker 4>look at the agencies that DOT has targeted, with the

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<v Speaker 4>priority of the administration being immigration, by building these APIs

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<v Speaker 4>and modernizing these systems, allowing them to talk would make

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<v Speaker 4>it a lot easier. And what sources that I've been

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<v Speaker 4>speaking to the fears, you know, building this gigantic migrant

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<v Speaker 4>surveillance system. And the scariest part of this to me

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<v Speaker 4>is the idea that you can do this in thirty days.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, just identifying where all the databases are, what

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<v Speaker 4>they do, who accesses them, and for what purpose would

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<v Speaker 4>take longer than thirty days, you know, according to everyone

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<v Speaker 4>that I've spoken to. And so even if you want

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<v Speaker 4>to even beyond that thirty day limit, is there even

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<v Speaker 4>time to test how these were built? Are things going

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<v Speaker 4>to go wrong? I think you know. The big thing too,

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<v Speaker 4>is like who is going to get trapped in this?

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<v Speaker 4>We had over the weekend an immigration lawyer in Massachusetts

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<v Speaker 4>right who received an email saying that she needed to

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<v Speaker 4>self deport immediately. That was a mistake. There's just so

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<v Speaker 4>many mistakes that could happen, and when the administration is

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<v Speaker 4>sending so many of these folks down to the seacop

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<v Speaker 4>prison in Al Salvador and not really fighting to bring

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<v Speaker 4>them back when mistakes are made. That adds another layer

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<v Speaker 4>to this, all right, because maybe they don't even care

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<v Speaker 4>if you know, the system is one hundred percent perfect

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<v Speaker 4>and doesn't make these horrible mistakes.

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<v Speaker 1>Dana, that is all kind of scary. We're starting to

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<v Speaker 1>think about, you know, what a complete kind of surveillance

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<v Speaker 1>state might look like here in the US. It's also

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious, you know, I mentioned how Elon could be

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<v Speaker 1>stepping away here At the end of a one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and thirty day period, he will have this special government

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<v Speaker 1>employee status that will sort of supposedly end. Is he

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<v Speaker 1>actually going to leave?

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<v Speaker 3>So has discretion in terms of how the one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and thirty days are counted. Like if if you think

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<v Speaker 3>if the inauguration on January twentieth was day one, then

0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:10.679
<v Speaker 3>the one hundred and thirty days brings you till roughly

0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.960
<v Speaker 3>the end of May. I mean, there have definitely been

0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:16.679
<v Speaker 3>signals that Elon is going to like sort of step back.

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:19.599
<v Speaker 3>Trump has said basically at some point, Elon's going to

0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 3>have to leave. Elon talked very publicly at that Wisconsin

0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.760
<v Speaker 3>rally about the sort of hit that he's taking in

0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 3>terms of the backlash against Tesla and how that's impacted

0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:33.120
<v Speaker 3>his stock and the stock of everyone who owns Tesla frankly,

0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:35.439
<v Speaker 3>and so there is a sense that, like he might

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.120
<v Speaker 3>pull back, but I think that he has unfettered access

0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.840
<v Speaker 3>to the Trump administration. And we have to remind everyone

0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.600
<v Speaker 3>he bankrolled this electoral comeback. He spent more than two

0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:48.240
<v Speaker 3>hundred and fifty million dollars to get Trump reelected. He

0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.240
<v Speaker 3>campaigned for Trump all across Pennsylvania. And he's not just

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 3>going to like take his ball and go back to

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:58.600
<v Speaker 3>Tesla like he He funded this campaign for a reason.

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.319
<v Speaker 3>I think he is very proud of what Doge has accomplished,

0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 3>but frustrated that the public isn't giving him accolades like

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:09.040
<v Speaker 3>he is. He is frustrated by the backlash his companies

0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.440
<v Speaker 3>are in. I mean, Tesla at least is in trouble,

0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.400
<v Speaker 3>like they have a stale lineup byd is eating their

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.400
<v Speaker 3>starting to eat their lunch. Globally, the cyber truck is

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.080
<v Speaker 3>a disaster. In terms of sales, So like at some

0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 3>point he's going to have to reckon with like what

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 3>is his company? But I don't think he's gonna like

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 3>not be in touch with Trump. I mean, the two

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 3>of them text each other all the time.

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 4>The thing I would add to that too is that

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:34.839
<v Speaker 4>he owns x Twitter. I mean, his formal role is

0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:37.360
<v Speaker 4>as a senior advisor. I think maybe you can just

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.080
<v Speaker 4>do that by competing. Unfortunately as well, because it's very unclear.

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 4>You know that the administration Republican influencers everyone in this ecosystem,

0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:49.840
<v Speaker 4>this Trump administration ecosystem is on there and probably you know,

0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.960
<v Speaker 4>gets push notifications like we all do when Elon Musk tweets,

0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:54.200
<v Speaker 4>whether we turn them on or not.

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 1>Mcinnay. You know, that's an interesting idea and it does

0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.800
<v Speaker 1>speak to maybe what the future it looks like. But

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:03.280
<v Speaker 1>like back just in the present, since he's still in DOGE,

0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.560
<v Speaker 1>how involved is he on a day to day basis

0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Based on what you've learned through your reporting.

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean it sounds like the way that he

0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.520
<v Speaker 4>operates with a ton of his companies, right, he has

0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:17.559
<v Speaker 4>these grand ideas or whatever, and he builds a group

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 4>of people who he knows can execute. Steve Davis seems

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 4>to be heavily involved, who you know, is now the

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 4>president of the Waring Company. He was brought in for

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 4>the Twitter acquisition and did a lot of the cost

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 4>cutting there. It seems like it's the same playbook, right,

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.240
<v Speaker 4>and then it gives Elan a lot of time to go,

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.040
<v Speaker 4>you know, do some of his company stuff. Played Diablo

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.960
<v Speaker 4>four at three o'clock in the morning to test his

0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 4>starlink or whatever. But yeah, I think it's still you know,

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:45.400
<v Speaker 4>him operating as this like philosopher King more than this

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 4>everyday roll of like getting his hands dirty with firings

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 4>or you know, doing specific stuffs.

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:54.080
<v Speaker 3>When I thought it was super interesting that Musk and

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 3>a bunch of Doge people went on Fox News with

0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 3>Brett Baher to kind of talk about their work, and

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 3>Steve Davis was sitting right next to Elon and he

0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.880
<v Speaker 3>was introduced by the Fox host as the COO.

0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Of Doge of Doge.

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so did A McKenna's point, like it is Elon's philosophy,

0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 3>but he has kind of deputized some of his most

0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:15.240
<v Speaker 3>loyal lieutenants to actually carry out the work. But Musk

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 3>is still very much in DC. I mean, he was

0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 3>with Trump in Florida over the weekend at the UFC fight.

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:26.440
<v Speaker 3>Like he is not in Fremont, he's still very much

0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 3>in the nation's capital.

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 1>So when he's not there, let's say, after these one

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.400
<v Speaker 1>hundred and thirty days or whatever, who are some of

0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 1>the key people you mentioned Steve Davis, who are some

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 1>of the key people in DOGE that will be kind

0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:42.800
<v Speaker 1>of primary reporting targets as you kind of look ahead, Dana,

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:43.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna start with you.

0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:44.520
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think I.

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 3>Think it's super interesting to look at who's taken on

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 3>the CIO roles so. At Social Security, for instance, the

0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 3>sort of interim CIO was this guy Mike Russo, but

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 3>now it's Scott Colter, who's like a young kind of

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:01.000
<v Speaker 3>private equity VC kind of person and who is now

0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 3>like in that job. And so that's that's like one

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 3>example of like an agency person that I would look

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 3>closely at. I think it's super interesting to see how

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.800
<v Speaker 3>long Antonio Gracias, who's on the board of SpaceX, and

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.320
<v Speaker 3>Joe Gebia who's on the board of Tesla, stay involved

0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 3>in DOGE. They have both been very active Antonio at

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.520
<v Speaker 3>Social Security and Gebia's like at oh PM looking at

0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 3>the retirement system. You know, some of these people kind

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 3>of cycled through and have cycled back to their companies already,

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 3>Like some of the young like engineers who worked at

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.240
<v Speaker 3>Tesla and SpaceX, are already sort of done with their

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.440
<v Speaker 3>with their work and are now back at the companies.

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 3>But to McKenna's point, like as we enter sort of

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 3>DOGE two point zero or like the second phase, I

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 3>think it's going to be some of the less lesser

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.720
<v Speaker 3>known names that will actually have the most influence. And

0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 3>they're lesser known by design. I mean a lot of

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:51.920
<v Speaker 3>what we know of the about these people is based

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:56.880
<v Speaker 3>on court filings and tros and declarations from the government

0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 3>in these various lawsuits. A lot of these people have

0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.440
<v Speaker 3>scrubbed their social media. They don't have a LinkedIn page,

0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.919
<v Speaker 3>like they are being very low key on purpose and

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 3>worth mentioning.

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 1>Dana, you work with Sophie Alexander and our graphics team

0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:11.919
<v Speaker 1>here at Bloomberg to sort of map out what that

0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.120
<v Speaker 1>universe of people really look like. That will be kind

0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 1>of leading DOGE potentially forward after elon the steps aside, Yeah,

0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.439
<v Speaker 1>for sure, any particular names that we haven't mentioned yet

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 1>that are of interest to you.

0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, The people that I'm most interested in are the

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:32.680
<v Speaker 4>DOGE people who are within that USDs system, which was

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 4>formerly of course called the US Digital Services created under

0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:39.119
<v Speaker 4>Obama to resolve the whole healthcare dot gov debacle, now

0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 4>called the US Doage Services, seemingly led by a woman

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 4>named Amy Gleason, who you don't hear a lot from.

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 4>So I'm definitely interested in seeing what Amy's role evolves into.

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:54.120
<v Speaker 4>Does she end up making more decisions, does she take

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.200
<v Speaker 4>the reins on a lot of this. I have my doubts,

0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:01.440
<v Speaker 4>of course, but definitely the leadership there and at GSA

0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.640
<v Speaker 4>as well, because the General Services Administration to me has

0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:08.080
<v Speaker 4>kind of seemed with all the layoffs happening and getting

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 4>rid of so many folks at these agencies, it seems

0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:12.520
<v Speaker 4>like they're building like this group of technologists that they

0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.440
<v Speaker 4>can then just like deploy anywhere to you know, quote

0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.680
<v Speaker 4>unquote like fix issues or do things.

0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 1>All Right, McKenna, we're going to have you back on

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>the pod. Thanks for joining us today. Really appreciate you

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:23.440
<v Speaker 1>in your time.

0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 4>Great great to be here.

0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:32.600
<v Speaker 1>Oh right now we're going to talk about the other

0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 1>most exciting thing in the world, which is Tesla as

0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>a stock. And we're going to be joined by Esha Day,

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.320
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg Stock reporter. Esha, thanks for joining us. Thank

0:18:41.359 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 1>you for having me, Dana, you're still here, of course, Escha.

0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.200
<v Speaker 1>What is going on with this stock right now?

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, that's an interesting question.

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 5>As always, it's very volatile and it's mostly going down now.

0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:56.119
<v Speaker 5>You would say that about the US stock market as

0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 5>better right now and.

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 1>For numbers like about seven and a half percent down,

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:01.520
<v Speaker 1>And I.

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 5>Just want to set up like you know, yes, Tesla

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 5>is moving a lot like the US stock market, which

0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:08.800
<v Speaker 5>itself is moving like a memestock these days.

0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.600
<v Speaker 2>But I want to tell you, like how much wilder

0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:12.159
<v Speaker 2>Tesla is.

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:15.440
<v Speaker 5>For example, Tesla shares are down last I checked, about

0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.439
<v Speaker 5>thirty eight percent this year. Sm P five hundred is

0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 5>down about eight percent of over that time. The NaSTA

0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:23.960
<v Speaker 5>one hundred, which is I would say usually a little

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.480
<v Speaker 5>more volatile than sm P five hundred index because it's

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:30.000
<v Speaker 5>so technology heavy, is down about ten percent.

0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:31.800
<v Speaker 2>So you know that's a comparison.

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.880
<v Speaker 5>Now since April second, when this recent tariff turmoil really started,

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:39.919
<v Speaker 5>and by many accounts, some people would say that Tesla

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 5>is relatively insulated maybe from some of the tariffs. Yet

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:48.600
<v Speaker 5>Tesla shares are down about eleven person since April seconds close.

0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:51.480
<v Speaker 5>Sembly five hundred is down about four point five percent

0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.119
<v Speaker 5>over that time, NaSTA one hundred down four persons. So

0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:56.719
<v Speaker 5>you know, by whichever way you look at this, Tesla

0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 5>chees are doing very badly.

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 1>Okay, there's this thing called the death crow that's come

0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:03.840
<v Speaker 1>up a little bit and Tesla seems to be maybe

0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:08.240
<v Speaker 1>flirting with it. How significant is this death cross?

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's significant for sure.

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 5>It's a death cross is basically a chart pattern, but

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.719
<v Speaker 5>it's one of the more prominent ones out there, something

0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:21.760
<v Speaker 5>that technical analysts and chart analysts kind of look at

0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:25.040
<v Speaker 5>very closely. Now, any chart pattern we would not look

0:20:25.080 --> 0:20:28.000
<v Speaker 5>at them in isolation. We usually want to see what

0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:30.119
<v Speaker 5>else is happening with the stock at the same point.

0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 5>But overall, what this death cross is is it's basically

0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:38.159
<v Speaker 5>is giving you a sense of what the momentum of

0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:39.240
<v Speaker 5>the share price is doing.

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:39.520
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:43.480
<v Speaker 5>So, the way it's defined is when a short term

0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:48.040
<v Speaker 5>price support line of a stock or an asset falls

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.080
<v Speaker 5>below the long term support line or trend line. The

0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:54.639
<v Speaker 5>way it's usually defined is by the fifty day moving

0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:57.560
<v Speaker 5>average and the two hundred day moving average, and Tesla

0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:02.399
<v Speaker 5>Shayes just cross that kind of ominous milestone yesterday. What

0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 5>it usually means is that you know that, like the

0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 5>momentum is now on the lower side.

0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:08.720
<v Speaker 2>The last time it happened was in.

0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:12.960
<v Speaker 5>Early I would say late January early February twenty twenty four,

0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:16.240
<v Speaker 5>and right after that happened, Tesla Chez fell about twenty

0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:18.360
<v Speaker 5>five person over fifty five trading sessions.

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:20.439
<v Speaker 2>So you know that's how it goes.

0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:23.159
<v Speaker 1>Okay, Dana, I'm gonna turn to you. What's the word

0:21:23.440 --> 0:21:27.360
<v Speaker 1>among investors and analysts? Were a week away from from

0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:30.600
<v Speaker 1>earnings here, it seems like a pretty significant earning. So

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:33.920
<v Speaker 1>so what are we hearing as we march towards that day?

0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:36.439
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean you're seeing a lot of analysts cutting

0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:40.720
<v Speaker 3>their price targets for volume because Tesla just does not

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:44.119
<v Speaker 3>really have a robust lineup, and people want to hear like,

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:46.919
<v Speaker 3>what is up with? Is Tesla ever going to make

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:49.199
<v Speaker 3>a cheaper car? Is the cheaper car like really a

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:50.960
<v Speaker 3>new car or is it just like a de content

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:53.600
<v Speaker 3>and Model three and Model Y. I've written about this

0:21:53.760 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 3>that like Elon Musk is basically.

0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 4>Bored with making cars.

0:21:56.920 --> 0:21:58.920
<v Speaker 3>He kind of proved to the world that you could

0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:01.639
<v Speaker 3>make a high performance like car and he accomplished that,

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:05.359
<v Speaker 3>and now he's all about AI and the robotaxi. The

0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:08.640
<v Speaker 3>company is supposed to launch some kind of soft robotaxi

0:22:08.720 --> 0:22:11.920
<v Speaker 3>service in Austin in June. So I think the earnings

0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:14.719
<v Speaker 3>call is all going to be about like the catalysts

0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:17.280
<v Speaker 3>for the future. Everyone knows it was a really bad

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:21.359
<v Speaker 3>quarter in terms of sales. How testy analysts get with

0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:23.960
<v Speaker 3>Elon on the call, I think will be interesting. I'm

0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:27.080
<v Speaker 3>hoping that analysts will ask him like when are you

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.520
<v Speaker 3>stepping back from doge? When are you going to actually

0:22:29.600 --> 0:22:31.760
<v Speaker 3>run the company? Like he has always been a part

0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:35.000
<v Speaker 3>time CEO, and I think you're really seeing frustration about

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 3>that spillover. Like Dan Ives, who's you know, always been

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.000
<v Speaker 3>one of the most boolish analysts on Wall Street, sort

0:22:41.000 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 3>of talked about the brand destruction and that like Elon

0:22:44.560 --> 0:22:47.040
<v Speaker 3>has to kind of make a decision and read the room.

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:49.360
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, it'll be as always, it'll be a very

0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:49.880
<v Speaker 3>interesting call.

0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:50.439
<v Speaker 2>Next week.

0:22:50.800 --> 0:22:54.040
<v Speaker 1>Dan just brought up Dan Ives, who, as she also mentioned,

0:22:54.560 --> 0:22:58.040
<v Speaker 1>is has been a huge test lablele. How significant was

0:22:58.200 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 1>him changing his tune a little bit.

0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So, Dan Ives, I would say, is one of

0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:08.720
<v Speaker 5>the strongest bullish voices among seal side analysts on Tesla.

0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 5>You know, he's very rarely criticized as a stock or

0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:16.440
<v Speaker 5>Elon Musk himself. So him coming out was really kind

0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:18.360
<v Speaker 5>of emblematic of how a.

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:19.680
<v Speaker 2>Lot of the bullish voices.

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:23.240
<v Speaker 5>And I speak to investors, both retail investors and institutional

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:26.879
<v Speaker 5>investors on Tesla all the time, and when around the

0:23:26.920 --> 0:23:29.320
<v Speaker 5>time when Dan kind of came out and said that Okay,

0:23:29.440 --> 0:23:32.000
<v Speaker 5>this is time for the company to really kind of

0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:34.920
<v Speaker 5>you know, listen to the room really and for Elon

0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:37.800
<v Speaker 5>Musk to take a step back and kind of refocus

0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:40.840
<v Speaker 5>on the company again, that was really emblematic of the

0:23:40.920 --> 0:23:43.440
<v Speaker 5>mood of the street. Like when I talked to investors

0:23:43.480 --> 0:23:47.280
<v Speaker 5>that they're very cautious, like there are I mean, there

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 5>is this thing about Tesla bullish investors where they're almost

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:54.040
<v Speaker 5>always optimistic in some way, but the mood of caution,

0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:56.920
<v Speaker 5>the mood of concern is really coming out right now

0:23:56.960 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 5>and that is like becoming really intense after the squatter

0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 5>deliver numbers and the results that we are expecting next week.

0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Okay, so there's caution, but then there's short shorts. No

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:10.320
<v Speaker 1>one seems to be willing to short it though, right

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:14.000
<v Speaker 1>and Dana, You've written about shorts and how devastated they've

0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 1>been by this stock. So even though there's caution, like,

0:24:17.320 --> 0:24:19.720
<v Speaker 1>is anybody really willing to bet against Elon?

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:21.600
<v Speaker 3>You know, that's a really good question. I mean, the

0:24:21.920 --> 0:24:24.159
<v Speaker 3>sort of a group of short sellers known as Tesla

0:24:24.280 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 3>Hugh really got blown out of the water when the

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:29.119
<v Speaker 3>Model Y became like the best selling vehicle and the

0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:32.600
<v Speaker 3>company kind of very definitely navigated the pandemic and hit

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 3>a trillion dollar valuation. I actually don't know if the

0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:37.560
<v Speaker 3>shorts have come back. I mean, some of the biggest

0:24:37.600 --> 0:24:40.959
<v Speaker 3>and loudest short sellers like David Einhorn and Jim Chanos,

0:24:41.000 --> 0:24:44.400
<v Speaker 3>I don't actually know if they still are actively shortening

0:24:44.400 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 3>stocks like ESHA. I haven't caught up with them recently,

0:24:47.320 --> 0:24:48.000
<v Speaker 3>have you.

0:24:48.000 --> 0:24:48.640
<v Speaker 2>No, You're right.

0:24:48.720 --> 0:24:52.359
<v Speaker 5>I mean, there are almost no prominent bearish voices or

0:24:52.400 --> 0:24:55.480
<v Speaker 5>short seller voices to be found in Tesla at this point.

0:24:55.560 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 5>And you know, they kind of absolutely got blown apart

0:24:58.880 --> 0:25:01.920
<v Speaker 5>during the twenty twenty two an even rally in the stock,

0:25:02.160 --> 0:25:04.960
<v Speaker 5>so I just again numbers a little bit for context.

0:25:05.320 --> 0:25:07.600
<v Speaker 5>There was a time, I would say around twenty eighteen

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:11.840
<v Speaker 5>twenty nineteen, the short seller percentage of Tesla stock was

0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:14.200
<v Speaker 5>around thirty three percent of its free flow. Right now,

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:16.760
<v Speaker 5>it's hovering around three percent for the past four or

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 5>five years. So that's where we are. Even when we

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:21.960
<v Speaker 5>see a slight bit of uptick in the stock, we

0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:25.560
<v Speaker 5>haven't really seen anything that's you know, worth really noting.

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:28.000
<v Speaker 5>When I talk to people on the street, there are

0:25:28.200 --> 0:25:31.520
<v Speaker 5>enough people out there who think this stock should be shorted,

0:25:31.960 --> 0:25:34.199
<v Speaker 5>but they're just not willing to stand in front of it,

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:38.119
<v Speaker 5>just because it's such an immense beast of a momentum

0:25:38.160 --> 0:25:40.960
<v Speaker 5>stock right just when the stock turns, it's very hard

0:25:41.000 --> 0:25:43.600
<v Speaker 5>to tell when it might turn, and especially with Lan's

0:25:44.280 --> 0:25:48.119
<v Speaker 5>kind of political prominence and everything, the understanding is that

0:25:48.160 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 5>once the stock really turns, it's very hard to stand

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:52.520
<v Speaker 5>in front of that momentum, and nobody wants to get

0:25:52.800 --> 0:25:53.720
<v Speaker 5>kind of blown part by that.

0:25:54.320 --> 0:25:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Esha Danna, thanks for joining us on Elennik.

0:25:57.160 --> 0:25:58.560
<v Speaker 4>Thank you always a pleasure.

0:26:05.000 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>This episode was produced by Stacy Wong. Anna Maserakas is

0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 1>our editor, and Rayhan Harmanci, our senior editor. The idea

0:26:12.520 --> 0:26:14.960
<v Speaker 1>for this very show also came from Rayhan, and she

0:26:15.080 --> 0:26:17.119
<v Speaker 1>deserves a special shout out since this will be our

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:21.680
<v Speaker 1>final episode. Blake Maples handles engineering and David Purcell fact checks.

0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:25.800
<v Speaker 1>Our supervising producer is Magnus Henrickson. The elon Ink theme

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 1>is written and performed by Taka Yazozawa and Alex Sugahira.

0:26:31.200 --> 0:26:35.160
<v Speaker 1>Brendan Francis Newnan is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:37.879
<v Speaker 1>is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts. A big thanks to

0:26:37.880 --> 0:26:40.439
<v Speaker 1>our supporter Brad Stone. I'm Joel Weber. If you have

0:26:40.480 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 1>a minute, rate and review our show, it'll help other

0:26:43.119 --> 0:26:47.320
<v Speaker 1>listeners find us. See you next week.