WEBVTT - Get Ready For Another Round Of Toilet Paper Panic 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEO, market prows and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:16.920 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:16.960 --> 0:00:20.560 and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's bringing the amount of 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:22.760 the hour. He is birth looking to your managing director 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.759 of Strategic Resource Group Birt's great to welcome your eight 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:30.639 months into this pandemic. Now, we got disappointing data for 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:33.199 Halloween in terms of retail sales. What's the one thing 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:35.760 that really jumps out at you at the moment as 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:39.960 to where we are where the consumer is consumer? Based 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:44.680 on the US Department of Commerce reports today, VANNI disappointing 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:49.280 retail numbers, especially clothing and department stores. What really stands 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:54.320 out is the big box retailer's Walmart, Costco, BJ's Target 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.960 all doing really well. And the other key thing for 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.760 Bloomberg team members and listeners is stopped at the store 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:07.240 today this week, this weekend to load up on COVID supplies. 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.479 We're seeing the worst levels of inventory even worse than March, 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.480 April and COVID in terms of paper supplies, paper towels, 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:21.759 bathroom tissue, disinfectant liquids, soaps, disinfectant, sprays, and wipes. It's 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:25.479 a real panic situations because the brand suppliers are doing 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.440 a pathetic job supplying the retailers, and the out of 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:33.120 stocks are reaching unprecedented proportions. So what are the retailers 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:36.679 telling you about how bad that aspect of their business 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:42.160 could get? Uh, Paul, it's it's it's gonna get really 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:46.600 bad because companies like Clorox had moved to single site 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.000 manufacturing for the total US. My alma mater Proctor Gamble 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:54.200 UH called the number of plants with Booz Allen and 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:58.200 Mackensey studies they have insufficient UH plants too far away 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:02.040 from population center. So as bad as it is, it's 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.480 going to get worse, and especially going to get worse, Paul. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:08.200 And urban areas where you have smaller stores often supplied 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:11.840 by voluntary wholesalers. So the big change have the procurement 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.359 power to get what little inventory there is, and then 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:22.720 they're smart retailers Walmart, Lowe's, BJ's Costle are investing extra 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:26.360 working capital and inventory. But for the big change that 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:30.600 ernests well capitalized that can't buy extra inventory up froad, 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.520 it's gonna be a real crisis for consumers as well 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:35.720 as and then they've retype change. But Birds, we've had 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.200 eight months to solve this. How is it going wrong 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.240 all of a sudden or how is it continuing to 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:45.320 go wrong? Why can't Clarok solve this supply chain problem? 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.840 And and Bonny it's it's it's Clorox, It's P and G, 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:54.600 It's Kimberly Clark, it's Coldgate, it's uh Record, ben Kaiser, etcetera. 0:02:55.160 --> 0:03:00.880 Because they went to the Asian system of justin time deliberate. 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.400 So when COVID started, they didn't have the raw materials, 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:06.560 they didn't have the bottles, they didn't have the cases, 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.279 they didn't have the truck drivers, they didn't have the warehouses, 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.440 they didn't have extra inventory. Sort of put put it 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:17.320 out mathematically. Walmart has a hundred and fifty six major 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:22.560 distribution centers, including six crisis distribution centers. Corox, to proct 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:26.200 and Gamble only have one a few to five on 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:30.919 the supply apply the US. That's completely inexcusable and as 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:34.720 one of my mentors, Phil Robinson, who was director manufacturing 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:38.000 for P and G, cautioned the company about doing this, 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.839 but it really got got to be greed. And by 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:48.880 cutting working capital and uh cutting cutting capex for manufacturing 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:54.240 and distribution, they created a crisis which exacerbates public safety 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.520 crisis too because in New York City literally some of 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.360 the retailers are telling me that, uh see years they 0:04:00.360 --> 0:04:02.680 have to go to five to ten chains a day 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:08.320 to try to get safe safety related disinfectants and paper products, 0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.680 and no matter what store they go to, it's double 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:15.280 os or out of stock. All right, so we'll certainly 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:17.480 monitor that situation. Burt. We've had a lot of the 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.880 big retailers report this week and today. What are some 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:27.360 of the takeaways here? The big takeaway is when when 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:31.279 you pay more, you get more productivity per person, you 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:35.080 get higher shop of satisfaction. There's uh the old adage 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:39.960 from my uncle Dave, you pay peanuts, uh and uh 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:44.320 you don't get good results. Costco which pays very well. Walmart, 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:47.240 which went from being the worst in terms of pay 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:51.160 to the one of the better ones ahead of Target. 0:04:52.160 --> 0:04:56.040 They have higher retention and so uh Walmart is able 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.440 to deliver the ninety of the US Internet sales up 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:04.440 seventy and percent same stores stacked between the Walmart stores 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:08.120 and Stam's Club up approximately seven percent, and a lot 0:05:08.120 --> 0:05:11.560 of that retention, A lot of that's investing in working 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:15.680 capital and trying to evolve. From a Bloomberg cover story 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:20.919 co authored by Shannon Petty Peace and David vorriez UH 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:24.600 saying UH Walt Walmart had an out of control of 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:28.680 crime problem. There was a nightmare for the police departments 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:34.320 across America, and Walmart didn't have sufficient security, hence UH 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:38.880 the El Paso tragic loss of life where dozens of 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:42.400 people were gunned down UH in the Walmart store in 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:46.400 El Paso, and Shannon and David reported UH throughout two 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:50.880 hundred violent crimes a year. So Walmart's taking corrective action 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:55.040 to correct the mistakes that the family made from security 0:05:55.080 --> 0:06:00.279 et cetera, UH to professional management and Walmart's checked aiding 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.760 and gaining on Amazon, and from our field work and 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:09.640 Vonnie's homeland in Ireland, UH Small, Scotland and England. Walmart's 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:13.560 learning from the mistakes it made in in UM, the 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:18.960 EU and in the UK with ASDA and UH divested, 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:24.400 say you this week divested someone's Latin American operations, concentrating 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:29.000 online UH and UH concentrating on flip card in Asia 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:33.279 and doing things right. So it's investing. It's investing in 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:39.960 growth drives UH, profitable market share growth and profitable sales 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:44.240 growth versus the other retailers who are cutting expenses and 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.760 cutting expenses at the time at Covid as an r 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.960 X with disaster, many bankruptcies to be seen for the 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:54.599 rest of the year. I'm sorry, Vonnie one more time, 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.640 please sorry, I have a mask on bankrupt sees. How 0:06:57.640 --> 0:06:59.279 many do we see between now at the end of 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:03.400 the year bankruptcy's We've we've had fifty in the last 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:10.760 twenty months, with Francesco's hopefully not but but UH sadly probable, 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.360 we'll probably see another five by the end of the 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:17.560 year and another fifteen to twenty in the upcoming calendar year. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.800 And with the bankruptcys and with with Covid and the shutdowns, 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:27.520 the big box operators like Walmart, Costco, BJ's target as 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:31.120 well as Amazon and the hard discounts like all the 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:35.800 illegal really capitalized, while the independence and their suppliers are 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:38.920 still getting squeezed Birt, thanks so much for joining us. 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:42.120 As always, we appreciate your thoughts and insight into the 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:46.920 retail space. Bert Flickinger, Managing Director, Strategic Resource a Group, 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:48.960 joining us again to kind of give us an update, 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:51.120 and it is Vanni. It's just frustrating to see some 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.080 of those supply chain problems where you can't get some 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.880 of the basic products again eight months after we started this. Yeah, 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:58.880 I mean I personally haven't seen it, but I believe 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:01.040 Bert when he says that he's always turning around to 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:03.800 you know what. I think that they would have built 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:06.880 up inventories throughout the supply chain and anticipation of the 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:11.360 second wave, which everyone certainly has been expecting. But we'll 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:13.920 have to see how this plays out. You're listening to 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:19.280 Bloomberg Markets with Bonnie Quinn and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. Well. 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.320 One of the fastest growing areas in the investment world 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:25.080 over the last couple of years have been exchange traded 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:28.000 funds or e t fs. Ben Slaven, global head of 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:30.360 et F s and Assets Servicing at B and Y Melon, 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.880 joins us here. B and Y Melon has eight hundred 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:37.680 and sixty billion dollars in assets, through across t fs globally, 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:40.280 and they work with fifty three issuers, so they know 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:42.640 what they're talking about when it comes to e t s. Ben, 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.240 thanks so much for joining us here. How have e 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:49.880 t s in general performed over this craziness that we've 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.480 all been experiencing over the last eight or so months. 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:56.319 Good morning, and thanks for having me on the show. UM. 0:08:56.320 --> 0:09:00.600 E t s have shown remarkable resiliency this year. Investor 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:04.000 appetite for e t s keeps growing. US e t 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:08.520 F inflow past four hundred billion dollars this year year 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.960 to date, which would put us on the second all 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:14.240 time pace for the industry, with an outside shot of 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:18.520 hitting the all time record. So really, ets have emerged 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:21.320 stronger on the other side of the volatility we saw 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.560 this spring, and the e t F ecosystem to support 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:30.000 that growth has also shown remarkable resiliency. Where are they 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:34.120 going for the most part, these assets, well, we've seen 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:39.440 strong flows across the board UM this year. Specifically, we've 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:43.280 seen an increase in fixed income e t F flow, 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:47.080 which are having a very strong year, especially in the 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:50.280 run up to the election. UM. In fact, if the 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:53.920 mix of assets hold, we will see the first time 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:58.760 where fixed income e t F assets have outpaced equities. 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:04.199 Commodity specifically gold are also having a very strong year UM. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:08.440 We also saw some you know buying and inflow into 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.920 those products, especially as the price of gold increased earlier 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:16.880 in the year. So ben what's generally speaking the main 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.280 attractive point or selling point for an e t F 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:25.120 in general, Well, there are several things that are driving 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:30.040 the adoption of ets Certainly fees, et f s are 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:37.360 lower cost across the board compared to other structures. Tax efficiency, transparency, 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:41.360 and liquidity are all key drivers of investor adoption of 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:46.120 e t s. We are also seeing a significant growth 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:50.120 in the amount of products that are coming to market 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:54.920 UM due to investor appetite UM also due to regulatory 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.960 changes that are making it easier for issuers to launch. 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.559 So what you're seeing is an experience into toolkit. And 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.880 as the adoption of e t s grow UM and 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.880 specifically around the liquidity of e t fs have increased, 0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:13.559 especially over the last few years, you are seeing investors 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.280 all the way from retail investors all the way up 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:22.680 to large institutional players using ETFs to express their views 0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:27.160 in the market, whether they be strategic or tactical. Then 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.640 just on a slightly separate note, it's been a very 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:33.280 strange time for custodian banks. Explained to us why why 0:11:33.360 --> 0:11:35.480 that is why custodian banks have been maybe suffering more 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:39.600 than others. Well, I think from a you know, from 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:43.280 a custody standpoint, UM, we are a service provider to 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.200 the E t F industry and you know, again we've 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:52.280 seen significant volume on our platform UM based on this 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.599 increase in e t F adoption, but certainly earlier this 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.400 year around some of the market volatility where we were 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:02.800 seeing very high amount of UH transaction volume come through 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:07.760 our platform. All of that business UM has really UM 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:13.360 really been processed in an automated environment UM, which you know, 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.679 really is kind of demonstrate some of the resiliency we 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.880 saw UM to be able to handle all that volume, 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.120 especially in a work from home environment. So it certainly 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.719 has put some some strain on the industry to be 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:31.640 able to shift their operating models UM and also adopt 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:36.280 the technology necessary to really support UH the industry you know, 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.599 as it's as it's growing UM, and also serve investors 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:42.560 UM you know, who are again increasingly looking to use 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:44.920 these products to to express their views on the market 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.640 so been. You know what I like about the et 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:49.880 F space, and when we have an in house expert 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:53.520 here at Bloomberg, Eric Beltunas, who keeps us up the 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:57.720 speed here, there's so many cool sectors and and really 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.000 interesting et F structures get put in place to follow 0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:03.240 specific parts of the market. What are some of the 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.199 et F sectors that you think you're gonna see some 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:08.040 of the most interest uh in the next you know, 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.560 year or so well. I think there are several trends 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.640 we're going to see into Certainly, I mentioned fixed income 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:19.120 ETFs which had a great and I expect that trend 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:23.840 to continue into especially in a low rate environment where 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.760 the thirst for yield will certainly continue by investors. I 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:32.280 also expect to see an uptick in actively managed ETFs, 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:37.360 both transparent active and non transparent active. We're seeing a 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:40.960 significant amount of our clients at b N Y Melon 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:44.719 express interest in launching these kinds of products, and we 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:48.280 expect to see quite a bit of new launches coming 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:52.400 to market, both equities and fixed income. Also, I think 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.959 it's worth noting we do see a trend um as 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.280 we've seen this year in the adoption and interest in 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:03.959 thematic ets, specifically retail investors which have been driving flow 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.200 and DiPT thematic ets this year and they've become quite 0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:11.319 popular playing several different types of trends. And also again 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:15.000 maybe finally M E. S. G Um, we've seen a 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.560 record high trend this year, and you know, we think 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:24.240 investors are increasingly looking for adding risk factors like climate change, government, 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:28.440 socially responsible stewardship as part of their et F portfolio. Ben, 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:30.320 thank you so much for joining. You say Evan Slaven 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:32.680 his global head of ETF SO noasa's servicing at b 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.640 n Y Melon and b n Y is abouts globally. 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.240 This is Bloomberg Markets with All Sweeney and Bunny Quinn 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.280 on Bloomberg Radio. All right, we'll we continue our wonderful 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:47.880 lineup on them by radio this morning with it as 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:51.880 a coupler who is head of global payments for eBay. Elissa, 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:55.040 thanks for joining and welcome. How difficult has it been 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.960 to do your job during coronavirus? Good morning, Thank you. 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.240 I'm you know, it's definitely led to a tremendous amount 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.680 of adaptation. Um. You know, we launched managed payments virtually, 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:10.280 which was not how we planned and not how we 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.920 did our first pilots in the US and in Germany. 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:15.960 But UM, you know, we operate a little bit like 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:18.560 a startup inside a large our company of eBay, and 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.920 the team has been incredibly adaptive and UM we've successfully 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.880 launched and continue to grow. So it's been it's been 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.720 a good experience, albeit a little bit different than we expected. 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.760 Earlier this morning we heard Anna Boutine, the executive chairman 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.160 of Banco sant and there she had an extraordinary statistic 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:39.280 about eighty percent of their transactions in the month of 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:45.120 October were digital. Just extraordinary. So for somebody at eBay 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:48.840 and you think about your managed payments business, first, just 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.920 tell us what your managed payments business is and where 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:58.520 you see the growth going forward. Sure. So in Januaren, 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:02.560 UM we shared our engined to intermediat or manage payments 0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:06.240 UM and simply that's driven by creating the best experience 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.440 for our buyers and sellers UM. Historically, obviously eBay and 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.600 PayPal we're part of the same company, UM, and we 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:18.160 we basically outsourced all payment activities to PayPal, and every 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.160 seller that came on to list and sell on eBay 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.680 needed to establish a relationship with PayPal as well. By 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:28.320 managing payments, we bring that all in house and our 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.800 sellers register with us inclusive of payments and get on 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.360 their way with selling, and allows us to offer a 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:38.840 multitude of forms of payments to our buyers all over 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.400 the world. And as you noted during COVID, so much 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:46.520 has moved online and digital um. So the convergence of 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.400 timing for us has been tremendous as we're able to 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.840 now control the experience end and for our buyers and 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.760 sellers and ensure that our buyers all over the world 0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.960 are increasingly having the forms of payments that they demand 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.680 to shop with. So I'll give us more detail on that. 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.480 What exactly are the platforms that you use and a 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:08.600 lot of buyers seem to prefer these days. Yeah, So 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.480 historically we were limited by whatever forms of payment were 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:16.880 inside the PayPal wallets, and as we move volume into 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.960 US at EVA managing payments, are buyers have access to 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.760 not only cards and of course pay Pal as as 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:28.080 a form of payment um, but digital wallets like Apple 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.320 Pay and Google Pay, which is we've seen explosive demand 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.960 for as more and more not only moves online but 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:40.320 through through mobile applications, particularly with with younger generations, and 0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.439 as we've launched into Germany, for example, there's a lot 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:46.800 more bank based UH payments that are out there, and 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.920 so we've been able to introduce those UM after pay 0:17:50.119 --> 0:17:55.480 in Australia, a growing trend UH of folks wanting to 0:17:55.600 --> 0:17:59.160 pay over over time, and as we continue to launch 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.680 around the world, will be able to introduce those local 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.719 forms of payments that UH the shoppers expect to use 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:08.240 anywhere they might be in stage Japan or France or Canada. 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.119 We want our buyers to find those local forms of 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:15.199 payments that they are familiar with UH locally across our 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.479 platform as well. A Lissa, how big is your managed 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.159 payment business within eBay and kind of what are the 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:25.080 growth rates you guys are experiencing. Yes, so we have 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:28.520 been limited by an operating agreement from the separation with 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.040 PayPal for the past five years that just expired in 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:35.680 mid July this past summer, as we are limited to 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:40.119 just ten into markets US and Germany. As we crossed 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:44.879 UH that transom in July, we launched across five markets 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:48.680 and we've been feeling very very rapidly. We're over three 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.440 and forty thousand sellers as we wrapped to three UM 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.479 and we are now processing a little over of our 0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:00.240 global on platform gm g m V on the PLAT form, 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.240 and we're continuing to add more sellers and more volume 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:06.760 every single day. We will expand into France, Italy and 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.720 Spain at the beginning of next year and continue to 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:14.000 roll around the world throughout. We expect to be largely 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:17.920 complete UH at the beginning of two where we will 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:22.800 then represent UM two billion in revenue for the company 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:26.199 and five million and operating income. So UM we are 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:29.400 continuing to charge along very very rapidly, and we're really 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.879 pleased with our results. That's pretty phenomenal. What are the 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.720 greatest challenges that you see ahead? What are the challenges 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.679 to your business? So there's We're we're in a very 0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:42.199 dynamic world right now with with COVID and a lot 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.920 of uncertainty. We are squarely focused on serving our customers. 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.520 When our customers win, we win. We want to continue 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:54.120 to provide them great experiences. Managing payments is a key 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:57.880 pillar UM in a modern manage marketplace, and then our 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:02.280 tech lad reimagination sense to continue to innovate on behalf 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:05.639 of our buyers and sellers and ensure that our our 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:09.320 sellers are having velocity, our buyers are finding what they're 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.120 looking for, that great deal, that unique find, and they're 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:15.720 zipping through checkout and getting on with their day. Hey, listen, 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:17.959 thank you so much for joining us. Just a fascinating 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.879 story there for eBay unlessa cut right head of Global 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:25.560 Payments for eBay. They're based in San Jose, California, And 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.520 you know, Vanni, just I mean, just extraordinarily good timing, 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.720 you could argue for really launching a digital fintech business 0:20:31.720 --> 0:20:34.400 at a time when people are spending more and more 0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.960 time online, transacting more and more online and doing it digitally. Yeah, 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.439 you'd love to know about the you know, the cutting 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:45.399 up of the pie. So what percentage or portion of 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:49.280 percentage per payment does does this business get? And you 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:51.000 know how much of a middleman is it? Is it 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:55.280 also the middleman where a stripe is a middleman? You know? Yeah, yeah, 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.600 it's There are different platforms out there, for sure, but 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:00.919 I think the eBay straight at you here. It's obviously 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:04.520 to tie in the activity on the eBay platform um 0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.840 with the payments business as well, cut out that third person, 0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:14.440 get more that revenue let's bring in our professional, Ira 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.920 Josey Teeth, interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. I really 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:20.760 let's begin with this morning's retail sales and the impact 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.560 it's going to have on the economy. Disappointing Halloween sales. Yeah, 0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.480 so the retail sales numbers certainly weren't good, and in 0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:30.679 particular what we call the control group, So that's the uh, 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.600 those are the sectors that actually go directly into GDP. 0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:38.320 So the fact that, um that that missed pretty big 0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:41.160 by by four tenths and uh and was also revised 0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.680 down for September, I think just shows you that some 0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:46.920 of the optimism and some of the you know, initial 0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:49.879 sorts of any kind of V shape recovery have to 0:21:49.960 --> 0:21:53.760 go out the window. Hey, I you know, looking at 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:56.520 the tenure treasury here, you know, eighty six basis points 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.159 roughly seems if you've been in this pretty tight trading 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:02.159 range in and around ninety basis points. Any reason to 0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.520 think that that changes in the maybe near to intermediate term. 0:22:06.240 --> 0:22:08.000 So I think in a near term, if you get 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:11.480 continued risk off move so we get equities moving lower, 0:22:11.640 --> 0:22:14.280 and um, you know, things like you know, maybe gold 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:16.720 prices going up in oil prices, falling that that you 0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:21.400 might actually see a return down toward the UM down 0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:25.200 towards the sixty five kind of handle on on tenure yield. 0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:27.800 So so another twenty basis points. But but basically, broadly, 0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:30.560 I think we're gonna stay in this range UM for 0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:33.080 quite a while. It's what's going to break us. I 0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:36.760 think above h that ish basis points where where we 0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:39.520 tested a couple of times last week. UM, I think 0:22:39.560 --> 0:22:41.080 it has to be a vaccine. I think it has 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:43.240 to be that, Hey, we're rolling out of vaccine. Here's 0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:47.359 the pace and three growth looks like it might be 0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:50.040 more um. You know, I don't want to say normal, 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:53.840 but but certainly better than we're currently the market is 0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:57.080 currently anticipating so um. And And the other way is is, 0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.200 you know, we don't get a vaccine right, and we 0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:02.680 continue to have rolling shutdowns and reopenings, which makes for 0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:07.200 very uneven economy uh continued you know, very slow um 0:23:07.600 --> 0:23:12.040 uh slow wage growth, causing inflation expectations to remain very tame. 0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:14.879 So so I think I think basically the push and 0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.040 pull that that we've had the last couple of months 0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:19.879 persists at least into the new year. Um, you know 0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:21.760 a couple of other things that Paul could break us 0:23:21.800 --> 0:23:24.600 out of it. For example, if the if the government 0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:27.879 does get together and and Congress and whoever, the new 0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:31.560 president is pass a reasonably big fiscal stimulus, I think 0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:35.160 then there is the possibility that even with without a vaccine, 0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:38.240 you can wind up seeing yields break break one again 0:23:38.280 --> 0:23:40.440 on the tenure. I just want to point out some 0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:43.400 news coming in the Republican Senator to Grassly says he's 0:23:43.400 --> 0:23:46.240 going to quarantine. He's waiting test results after being exposed 0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:48.680 to COVID nineteen. But of course this has implications for 0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:52.359 the Shelton nomination, which might have happened today. But it 0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:56.359 looks like now with Grasslely sort of by the wayside, 0:23:56.760 --> 0:23:59.840 her nomination, which would likely fail, won't happen today. A 0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:03.040 spokesman has confirmed, and Glassy will not vote today. What's 0:24:03.320 --> 0:24:06.639 you're thinking on Judy Shelton, IRA and how much of 0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:08.760 an impact you'll have at the FED? It does It's 0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:10.960 likely that she will still get nominated at some point, 0:24:11.040 --> 0:24:13.760 but it'll probably be in a few weeks time instead. Yeah, so, 0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:16.600 so you know, obviously, as a member of the FED 0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:20.000 will have some some say and some input. I you know, 0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:23.080 one thing that tends to happen is when when a 0:24:23.160 --> 0:24:25.560 lot of people who seem to be ideologues one way 0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:27.480 or the other, they get appointed to the Supreme Court 0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:31.080 or the Federal Reserve, where you don't have to report 0:24:31.119 --> 0:24:34.160