WEBVTT - Ukrainians Are Crowdfunding Their Defense 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.640 This is Bloomberg Business Week Inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.400 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:13.640 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:18.600 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:23.120 As we all know, we're nearing that one year mark 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.440 since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as Ukrainians continue 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:29.960 to fight to defend their country. The continued war requires 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.720 tapping into a vast donor network that's blossomed over the 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:37.400 plast twelve months to supply soldiers with everything from boots 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.279 to battle tanks. Carol, Yeah, we're talking crowdfunding. Who knew well? 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:42.280 Our Mark Champion knew This story, By the way, is 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:44.440 Today's Bloomberg Big Take. It is one of our most 0:00:44.520 --> 0:00:47.479 read stories on the Bloomberg. As we said, it is 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.839 also Today's Big Take podcast, which you can find up 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.479 Bloomberg dot com or wherever you get your podcasts, and 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:54.920 be sure to not miss the Big Take on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:58.160 That's weeknights at eleven pm Wall Street Time. Mark Champion, 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:01.080 Bloomberg News Senior reporter for Internet National Affairs, who wrote 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:04.720 the story. He is in London. Mark incredible story. Like 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:07.040 I said, who knew it? It's kind of a form 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:12.479 of crowdfunding. Tell us what exactly is going on? Yes, well, 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:14.920 I've been going in and out of Ukraine for the 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:19.800 last year and it really struck me every time I 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:24.520 went the amount of just stuff that was getting uh 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.039 you know, provided to the front. Wherever you were, you 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:30.200 went into a company, they had a warehouse full of 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.920 stuff and it was all donated. And the more I 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:36.560 know was there, the more it became clear that this 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:38.920 isn't just you know, the normal stuff you'd expect about, 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.720 you know, food for refugees and so, but it was 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:44.440 also weapons for the front, cars for the front, everything 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.800 that you can imagine that. You know, people just all 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.160 have relatives there, Their sons and brothers and fathers are 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.320 all at the front and they were trying to find 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.680 the stuff that they said they needed and so they're 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:59.080 filling all the gaps. But the scale has become really enormous. So, 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.680 you know, the one fund in particular that I talked 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:06.600 to call come Back Alive, they raised one hundred and 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.480 sixty million in the last dollars in the last year. 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:14.200 You know, there's others of similar scale. The Central Bank 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.400 if you want to just give extra money, the Defense 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:20.679 Ministry Central Bank has raised six hundred and fifty million dollars. 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:25.680 And you know that beyond those funds which they are 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:29.600 funding sort of expensive million dollar drones and mortars and 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.480 all sorts of things like that. But beyond those funds, 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:36.520 you just have the tiniest little operations all over the place. 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:38.239 You know. One place I went to was a guy 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:41.960 as a former graffiti artist who decided he was just 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:43.280 going to help all his friends who were going to 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:45.079 the front, and they were taking their cars and he 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.440 camouflaged them, so he cannot now as camouflage you know, 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:52.200 around you know, eighty hundred vehicles and then or also 0:02:52.400 --> 0:02:55.960 rifles and all sorts of things. That's so, that's such 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:58.200 an interesting point. I wonder if that means that there's 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.320 a sense on the ground that the folks who are 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:04.600 responsible for the crowdfunding understand the needs of civilians in 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:06.840 the area in a way that maybe the big players 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:12.960 like the US funders don't necessarily understand. Was that your impression, Mark, Yeah, 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:14.839 I think that's true. I mean, there's just a lot 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:17.800 of you know, gaps to fill, and you know, the 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.640 US can't be on top of all of that. The 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.200 Ukrainian defense ministry, you know, for reasons of money, of 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.240 bureaucracy or whatever, it can't do everything. And you know, 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:29.920 these is this something that Ukrainian has become very used to. 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:34.240 They because they had very sort of inefficient and corrupt governments, 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:37.200 they became uh, you know, over more than a decade, 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:39.880 they've built up this sort of instinct to crowdfund no 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.560 matter what it is, you know, a popular uprising like 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.880 the Maidan protests in twenty fourteen. Well then when the 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:50.640 war began in the donbas in twenty fourteen fifteen, immediately 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:53.720 the first instinct is not to ask the government, you know, 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:55.680 because you don't think you'll get anything the government. If 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:57.840 you give anything that the government, you think it will disappear. 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.800 So people have just become used to do stuff themselves. 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:04.120 They just instantly do it, and they just instantly begin 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:06.360 Facebook groups and so on to say, let's get a 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.360 car for so and so so that he can go 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:11.920 to the front. So it's it's just really ingrained, and 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.920 I think it is actually more important than the dollar value, 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.760 simply because it says to every soldier at the front. 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:22.680 You know, I've got an entire society behind me. Talk 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:24.560 to us about some of the people behind some of 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:28.520 these Crown crowdfunding efforts. We're talking about what Hollywood celebrities, 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:34.839 We're talking about, oligarchs, We're talking about everybody. Yeah, absolutely. So, 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:38.120 you know the fund that was set up by the president, 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:42.279 President Celenski, he has one called United twenty four and 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:46.599 they've raised two hundred and eighty seven million dollars. And 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.800 for that fund, he has really reached out and he's 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:53.520 persuaded by b Streisan to be an ambassador the fund. 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:56.160 There's a number of other celebrities that have become attached 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.520 to the fund in one way or another, and so 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.880 they raise money. And then you have others who are 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:05.560 as you mentioned, the oligarchs. You know, some of the 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.640 oligarchs who are not very popular, and we're even seen, 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:11.040 you know, some years ago as being kind of pro 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:15.840 Russian because they've supported the party that former President Janakovic 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:21.719 used to you know, represent So you know Arite who's 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:25.200 the richest man in Ukraine. He has a big steel 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.520 company called met in Best. They owned Azostyle in Mariupol, 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.720 the steel plant where they were the last stand was 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.320 made in Mariupol. They've lost a lot of their assets, 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.680 but he has actually provided one hundred and fifty thousand 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.400 sets of bulletproof best which they've made in his factories, 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:46.680 you know, eighty thousand tank traps, all kinds of stuff 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.320 which really does mount up. Well, Carol, you bring up 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.440 a great question about the people who fund this effort 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.640 and who have kind of been the leaders behind it. 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.360 I wonder, Mark, if you can talk about the people 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:01.040 who are most impacted by it? Is civilians? Is it 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:05.160 folks who are actually fighting? Who is most benefiting from 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.640 this extra cash? Well, it really is everybody, but the 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:13.520 Ukrainians are focused very much, you know, on people who 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.880 remain in areas that are either at the front or 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.919 they're in areas that were occupied and were then retaken 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:25.359 by the Ukrainians, and services there has sort of broken down, 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.159 medical services, you know, food is difficult to sort of 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:32.080 distribute all those sorts of things. So, you know, as 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:34.800 I say, it's it's the great strength of this is 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.920 that it's incredibly flexible. It just kind of responds because 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:43.120 everybody knows somebody, and they then move into these areas 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.719 and provide services that the government is just you know, 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:48.560 incapable or too slow or you know, doesn't have the 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:52.640 resources to do. And it really is a kind of 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:56.960 life saver in these areas. It is for civilians, it's 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:58.720 but a lot of it is for the front, for 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:02.680 the soldiers. Um. What's interesting too, and it's funny, you know, Mark, 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:04.960 as we were getting ready and talking about your story 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:07.200 in the newsroom, one of the things that came up 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:09.600 from one of our producers, Aria Gami, he said, you know, 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.160 wait a minute, I understand the US is sending billions 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.800 of dollars in equipment and providing support. We know other 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:18.760 nations and allies of the US are certainly and of 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:25.560 Ukraine are providing support. Why is this ultimately necessary? Because 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:28.280 nothing is enough. I mean, this is a big war. 0:07:28.400 --> 0:07:30.720 We haven't seen a war like this since World War 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:33.400 Two in terms of pure intensity. I mean they have 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.720 been other very intense wars, but not like this. And 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:40.760 you know, the Russian side in particular is very well armed. 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.600 It has the entires, you know, not the entire stop. 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.720 It the predominant part of the stocks of the former 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.320 Soviet Union that it built up for the Cold War. 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.400 And in many ways this is you know, they're running 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.360 down through the Cold War stocks of the former Soviet Union. 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:57.960 The Ukrainians on the other side, you know, they're still 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:00.600 It starts at this war with around sixteen your tanks. 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:03.400 You know, Germany has three hundred. You know, Britain has 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:06.080 two hundred and twenty. So it's you know, they they 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:09.120 it's not like they had nothing, but you need so 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:13.200 much in order to pursue a warline there. It just 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.440 eats resources at an incredible rate, and you need a 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:20.280 lot of everything because it gets destroyed. You know, the 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:23.960 ninety percent of drones get destroyed. A lot. You know, 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.760 pickup trucks that people bring they get destroyed, either you know, 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:28.440 because they get hit or they just you know, in 0:08:28.440 --> 0:08:30.680 an accidents, or they just you know, get stuck in 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:34.640 mud or whatever. That it just eats through resources at 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:37.600 an incredible rate. And to be fair, we've talked about 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.440 the new double issue Bloomberg Business Week gets out cover 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:44.000 story is of course marking the one year Russian invasion 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.880 into Ukraine, but talks about, you know, specifically, Maddie, the 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.559 shortage of ammunition on both sides. I mean, both sides 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:53.559 are going through a lot when it comes to any 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:55.960 kind of defense equipment and they're just kind of running 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:58.560 through it. Yeah, and it's it's so critical. I wonder Mark, 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:00.679 in our final kind of thirty second with you here, 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.280 if you can talk about you mentioned the intensity of 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.760 the war. What is something that you understand about the 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.240 situation on the ground that folks who haven't been in 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:12.720 Ukraine might be missing about the story. Well, I think 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.200 when you hear that the war has slowed down in 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:18.880 the East and yet you hit then the casualty rates 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.800 are really high, that is simply about intensity. So they 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:25.120 may not be moving, but there is a lot of 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:28.200 artillery shells that are just being exchanged on either side 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:30.800 and bodies now at this part of the war, just 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:33.160 bodies on the Russian side being thrown at the war. 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.000 So when you hear that things are nothing's moved or slow, 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.600 it doesn't mean that the war has itself has slowed 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:42.800 down in terms of intensity, and it hasn't at all. Yeah. 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.160 It's pretty amazing though, and to think about it was 0:09:45.200 --> 0:09:47.400 just a year ago that it all started, but you 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:50.240 look at how much devastation and how many resources are 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:54.440 still needed to continue on. Mark Champion, incredible story. Marks 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:57.240 Senior reporter for International Affairs at Bloomberg News, joining us 0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.520 on the phone from London. Be sure to check out 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:01.840 his bloom Big Take. You can also find it on 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:04.439 the Bloomberg terminal. Of course, check out the Bloomberg Big 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.640 Take on Bloomberg Radio weeknights at eleven pm Wall Street Time. 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:12.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:15.760 live weekdays from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.880 the Bloomberg Business app band you Doo. You can also 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:22.840 listen live to our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:30.040 play Bloomberg, Eleve and Dirty on our radar. Chinese president 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:34.360 she urging his country to accelerate fundamental scientific research so 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:38.040 it can become self reliant in critical technologies. Basically really 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:42.080 kind of countering Washington sanctions on everything from semis to software. 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.480 You've also got a Chinese top diplomat calling for peace 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:46.840 talks to resolve the Russian war in Ukraine. And then 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.640 there is a fascinating Bloomberg opinion piece today that talks 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:53.079 about if American intelligence is right and China really is 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:56.319 about to arm Russia in its genocidal war against Ukraine, 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.760 we may be entering a new era in international relations, 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.720 asking if it may be an even more dangerous one 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:05.000 to dress it all. We've got ed Price principle for 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:09.680 the geopolitical forecasting firm, or he is principle, I should say, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.200 of geopolitical forecasting at Ergo, which is a global intelligence 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.920 consulting in forecasting firm. By the way, Ed a former 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.480 British trade official his work with members of the European 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:20.840 and British parliaments. We are so delighted to have him 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.840 here with Maddie and myself. Ed, there is so much 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.640 going on. How do you separate out the week from 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.880 the chaff when it comes to what's going on in 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:33.280 foreign affairs and geopolitics? Hi, Caroline, I hope you guys 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.720 very well. It's difficult, right, It's really hard right now 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:41.199 to separate the signal from the noise. My firm was 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:43.280 previously very successful at doing that at the start of 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:46.440 this war, if you remember, we very successfully called it. 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.439 You know, we said they were going in with the 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:53.120 seventy eight percent confidence a year ago. Today, a year later, 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.880 it does seem that the war in Ukraine is harder 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.440 to read. I would suggest, although there are probably a 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.040 few a few themes that we can point to that 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:05.760 might help One of them, Carol, is that just at 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.120 the moment that it seems that Russian mistakes are compounding. 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.640 And by Russian mistakes, I mean the sort of strategic 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:16.679 tomfoolery of using your best troops, the Spectsnaz, your naval infantry, 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.559 your parachute paratroopers at the start of the conflict and 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:23.320 getting them essentially killed disproportionate to other troops. Strategic mistakes 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.040 like that are compounding at just the time that the 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.880 Ukrainians are getting new vehicles, new equipment, and the morale 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:31.480 is very high. So I think that's maybe one thing. 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.040 So when we zoom out from the Russia Ukraine situation 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:37.920 and look a little bit more broadly at all of 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:42.280 the global geopolitical tensions right now, Ukraine, China, the global 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:47.000 economy is spy balloons. What is your biggest concern and 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:51.440 situation to watch for the year ahead? Right? I mean, 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.719 I would be very clear that my biggest concern is 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:58.240 not necessarily the most likely concern. The biggest concern, of course, 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.480 should be that this low called war in Ukraine, and 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:05.600 that the threat of conflict over or in Taiwan become 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.800 the same thing, and that there is a general confluence 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:11.520 of the sorts of trends that we're seeing with regard 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.280 to great power competition right now, I don't think that 0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:18.600 that's likely. That must remain the biggest concern. But within that, 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:20.680 I mean, you guys just mentioned the fact that the 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:25.480 Chinese might be thinking about arming the Russians, is helping 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:29.840 with material, that is a concern because, of course, you know, 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:34.720 ridiculous spy blooms are one thing, but sending arms, sending 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.680 lethal aid to Europe from China, you know, when you 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.760 think about it, that's that's very concerning. You know, it's 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:45.400 interesting in this opinion piece too, it says Chinese military 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.280 support for Russia. Again it's an opinion piece by Andrea's Cloth, 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.120 said Chinese military support for Russia would finally turn the 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.560 Ukrainian conflict into a proxy war between two hostile blocks 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:56.600 with a third trying to stay out of the fray. 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:01.040 And it does, I do wondered, do we need to 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.920 be thinking that this is where we're going. We've talked 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:07.959 about kind of a technology war and different things going on, 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.440 but is this what happened? We're dividing the world up 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:15.000 into maybe three key blocks here. I think that the 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:18.440 essence of the problem is that Uncle Sam did half 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.120 a job after the Second World War. And by that 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:25.560 I mean he conquered three countries Germany, Japan, and the 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:27.760 United Kingdom. I wouldn't necessarily put it like that to 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:31.920 my friends, but he did and filled those three countries 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.920 with two things, democracy and free markets. For then some 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:39.000 unknown reason after that, Uncle Sam decided that the two 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:42.080 big naughty countries China and Russia. And again I wouldn't 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.600 necessarily call them naughty to their faces, but the two 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:48.400 big naughty countries were only given access to markets, right 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:51.880 and not. There wasn't a conservative effort to export democracy 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.760 to Russia and China. So in a way, we Americans 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.440 are American now. We Americans have done half a job 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.480 after the Second World War. And the big question is 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.280 can you get away with that? Is it okay that 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.360 democracy only really went halfway around the world when the 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:11.280 means of markets and capitalism went all the way around? 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.200 That's that's so interesting. I love the way you put that. 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:17.000 My question with China in the US specifically is always 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:20.120 like it's a symbiotic relationship, right, if we need each 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:25.920 other can China really afford to risk interacting with Russia 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.640 on the war when it's economy just reopened. I wonder, 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:32.160 in the context of what you just mentioned about China 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.200 embracing free markets but not democracy, how you think about 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.240 that relationship. Well, I don't want to get too deep 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:42.960 and dark here, but if you if you think about 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.760 the Chinese ability as an autocracy, as a totalitarian regime 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:51.200 to absorb the sort of punishment that a future sanctions 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.520 or blockade regime might impose on it, it doesn't care 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.480 about human life in the same way that that Americans do, 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.080 right and so, and that Europeans do. That's not to 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:04.720 say that your average Chinese individual or Chinese household doesn't 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:06.880 care about if I'm talking about the government, to be 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.560 clear and so PRC, I think we'll be able to 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:13.720 pull things out of the bag in a future confrontation 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.720 that look more like and feel more like an autarchy, 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:21.480 a strategical autarchy for which I suspect Belton Road has 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.640 a pretty good preparation in many ways that probably surprise us. 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.040 And so really the question is to what extent can 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:34.200 European economies and the American economy withstand a direct economic confrontation. 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:36.040 I mean, I've said it before, maybe we need some 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.520 sort of strategic garden furniture reserve. You know, it's a 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.720 silly way of putting it, but we're on the hook. No, 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.400 that is a really, really good point, and it's interesting. 0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:47.680 You know, we had a great story out from our 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:51.040 Bloomberg team about what the UK government basically was doing 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:56.400 and kind of doing a disaster scenario if China invaded 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:00.520 Taiwan and TSMC was shut down or impacted the global 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.120 supply chain, as we know that they produce so many 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:04.800 what is it, ninety percent of the chips used in 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.920 the world. So I guess I always think about what's 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:11.040 the constructive conversation as all this stuff is going on, 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.200 where investment strategist ed continue to say that the big 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:17.359 concerns this year are geopolitical. You know, we're seeing that. 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:19.280 So what is the constructive And we've only got about 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:23.119 forty five seconds left here. The constructive answer on Taiwan 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:26.680 is don't worry about it right now. Ergo's best sources 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:29.640 have the prospect of an invasion at a very very 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.040 low chance. That's all sorts of reasons that we can 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:36.600 get into another day. But do expect some kind of disruption, 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.520 something stopping short of a blockade, because of course that's 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:42.080 an act of war. But do expect that the PRC 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.040 and the Communist Party in China are going to make 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.200 life more difficult in that region. Twenty seconds left, Still 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:52.359 worried about Russia. I'm always worried about Russia. Yes' always 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.000 worried about Ussia. But I think we're on top and 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.440 I think Ukrainians will win. All right, listen, great to 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:58.280 check in with you. I know it's busy on your 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:00.280 end as well, so thanks for carving out some time. 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.840 Ed Price, his principal at Urga, former British trade official, 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:08.240 and of course joining us via zoom here. I believe 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:10.400 it is in New York City. All right. You're listening 0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.359 and watching Bloomberg Business Week Carol Masser along with Madison Mills. 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.080 A lot to think about, but I do feel like 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:16.879 this is a year that once again to your political 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.600 front center, and really interesting to hear him saying the 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:22.480 positive thing at the end there he thinks Ukraine's gonna win. Yeah, 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.159 fascinating right, all right, folks, will continue to cover an 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:27.119 update on the markets coming your way in just a moment. 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:34.160 This is Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg business Week inside 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.120 from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:41.440 trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.800 The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:50.720 Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. So we're talking about the last 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.600 jobs report where we had about more than half a 0:18:53.600 --> 0:18:56.760 million jobs in January created. I mean, it was just massive. 0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.840 You all sad the unemployment rate unexpectedly retreating to its 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.600 lois since nineteen sixty nine. We know, Maddie, that the 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.320 tight labor market persists for many types of workers, including blacksmiths, 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.439 enter robots. Such a cool story we've got here. With 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:12.399 more on this story, you can find it online at 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:14.920 Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week, and on the Bloomberg 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.000 But let's get to it with Ashley Vans. Bloomberg BusinessWeek 0:19:18.040 --> 0:19:21.520 features writer and author of Elon Musk, test Less, SpaceX, 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.120 and The Quest for Fantastic Future. Ashley joins us via 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:28.520 zoom from Palo Alto, California. Actually great to speak with you. 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:31.800 I think we are all incredibly jealous of you because 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:33.520 you have the coolest job in the world. You get 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:36.520 to try all of this cool stuff. Tell me about 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:40.840 this latest cool technology that you tried out. Yeah, well, 0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:42.920 a few months ago I went to this company called 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:47.520 Macana Labs. They're based in southern California, near Los Angeles, 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:52.639 and they've developed these robots but really some software and 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:54.840 a lot of sensors to go along with it that 0:19:54.960 --> 0:20:00.399 allows them to bend sheet metal to shape metal in 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:02.920 ways that would have been done well, that has been 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:08.320 done for centuries by by blacksmiths, and and you know, 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:12.720 it's it's just this kind of radical new form of manufacturing, 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:17.640 automated manufacturing that could be a huge boon to industry overall. 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.800 Is this ultimately actually something that can really scale up, 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:24.440 ramp up at some point in the future. Yeah, you know, 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.840 right now, this company Makina, they're working with what they're 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:31.280 working with NASA, the Air Force. They're building in some 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.800 cases kind of spare parts for a fighter jet that's 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:39.639 really hard to source, or body panels for a rocket 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:43.480 or something like that. So so not quite mass manufacturing yet. 0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:47.400 The plan, you know, is if all things work out, 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.080 is to have tons of these robots and have them 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:52.960 going at this on a larger scale and so so 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:56.879 it could be. But you know, in general, mass manufacturing 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.520 with dyes where you're stamping out parts will probably be 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.280 cheaper for a long time. But this still has a 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:05.520 big role, all right. Actually, I'm waiting for everybody on 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:07.520 Twitter to be like, see, we were right, robots are 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:09.639 going to replace our jobs. I mean, but that's not 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:11.560 kind of what this is about. This is I mean, 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:14.560 we don't have a lot of folks necessarily going into 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.439 wanting to be blacksmiths or metal working, right, and we 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:19.359 have a tight labor market, but there's even a bigger 0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:22.240 thing of people not wanting to go into what many 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.480 would call the trades. But yeah, exactly, I mean, if 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:27.840 you go talk you know, I spend my time talking 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.320 to manufacturing companies and customers. And the biggest problem right 0:21:31.359 --> 0:21:34.280 now is we had tons, especially in the US, lots 0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:37.400 of kind of mom and pop shops that got kind 0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:39.679 of big, but they would do a lot of this 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:42.840 metal work. Even for companies like SpaceX. It still happens 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:45.639 today and in a lot of cases, you know, the 0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:48.520 kids have not ended up wanting to go take over 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:52.639 the company. Other younger people haven't pursued these trades and 0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:55.720