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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast Better than Most, Better

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Speaker 1: than Most, Better than.

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Speaker 2: Most, Winner took You Down?

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Speaker 1: You got real telling, don concentrate on golf.

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Speaker 3: What's up everybody and welcome to another edition of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast presented by Bett MGM, the golf edition

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Speaker 3: of the podcast, and it's a major championship week for

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Speaker 3: the first time in two years. We have the Open

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Speaker 3: Championship coming up, of course postponed and then canceled last year,

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Speaker 3: but the festivities are about to get underway at Royal

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Speaker 3: Saint George's. I'm Jason Soble from Golf Bet. He's justin

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Speaker 3: right from the twenty first group. We will be joined

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Speaker 3: in a little bit by our friend Sam Harrap, who oh,

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Speaker 3: by the way, nailed the winner of the Scottish Open

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Speaker 3: on this very podcast last week. Min Wu Lee, So

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Speaker 3: Sam will be on to share all of his winnings

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Speaker 3: with us in just a little bitcha dude.

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Speaker 2: The dude pulled off his warm ups and just spotted

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Speaker 2: up from the half court line and knock one down

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Speaker 2: for cool start Min woo Lee. What do you have?

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Speaker 1: It is awesome?

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Speaker 2: Awesome Sam. Nowhere to go down.

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Speaker 3: I supposed to start my sandbagging but he's going to

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Speaker 3: have to give us shots. Now.

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Speaker 2: It's true that was not the veteran play. It was impressive,

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Speaker 2: but not the veteran play.

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Speaker 3: So let's get into we can sit here and review

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Speaker 3: Min Wu Lee and Lucas Glover. Congratulations to him first

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Speaker 3: winning just over a decade. Good stuff this past weekend,

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Speaker 3: but even better stuff coming up, and let's move right

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Speaker 3: on to spinning it forward to.

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Speaker 1: This week's Open Championship.

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Speaker 3: First, I will start out very generically, how fired up

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Speaker 3: are you and how little sleep are you going to

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Speaker 3: get this week?

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Speaker 2: Jay Ray, incredibly little, but my infant son has been

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Speaker 2: training me appropriately over the last several months and incredibly excited. Man.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know me. I love the Open Championship.

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Speaker 2: We've both been fortunate enough to go many times. They

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Speaker 2: run a golf tournament like no one else in the world,

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Speaker 2: and it's just such a the there's obviously all the

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Speaker 2: wonderful ties into history, but it's the unique style of golf,

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Speaker 2: and you know, when you're in the US, it's the

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Speaker 2: early morning golf, and there's just a million awesome things

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Speaker 2: about the Open Championship, and I'm just so excited that

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Speaker 2: it's back.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. We'll not be going over there

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 3: I hope to be getting back next year for Saint Andrews,

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Speaker 3: which is I always say.

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Speaker 2: A big one for number one fifty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's my favorite.

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Speaker 3: People always say like, what's your favorite tournament to cover,

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Speaker 3: And it's not just the Open, it's the Open at

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Speaker 3: the old course at Saint Andrews is like far and

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Speaker 3: away number one on my list, and then everything else

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Speaker 3: kind of comes after that. And so yeah, this should

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Speaker 3: be a great one at We're all Saint George's. Last

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Speaker 3: two times this was played here, Darren Clark in twenty

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Speaker 3: eleven was one hundred and fifty to one, came away

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Speaker 3: the winner.

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Speaker 1: Eight years earlier, Ben.

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Speaker 3: Curtis, who was I did the research justin they said

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Speaker 3: three hundred to one, five hundred to one. Come on,

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Speaker 3: if anyone was like picking you know Ben Curtis, like,

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Speaker 3: I feel like he's a good number. At three hundred

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Speaker 3: to one, that's some good value there. Give me a break.

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Speaker 3: You were not doing that eighteen years ago.

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Speaker 2: And so somebody, somebody nine pints in, stumbled into William

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Speaker 2: Hill and thought it said Ben Crenshaw, and that's and

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Speaker 2: that's what happened. I mean, I don't, I don't.

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Speaker 1: There's that story.

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Speaker 2: If anybody's got a winning ticket story on Ben Curtis

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Speaker 2: from eighteen years ago. I mean, one, you're lying, but two,

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Speaker 2: it would be an awesome one to hear, even if

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Speaker 2: you're fabricating it, because you know weather played a big

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Speaker 2: factor both of those years. I think it speaks to

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Speaker 2: you know, one of my favorite numbers about this golf

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Speaker 2: course going into the week is that there's only two

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Speaker 2: there's three Open Championship weeks where the field hit less

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Speaker 2: than fifty six percent greens in regulation since two thousand

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Speaker 2: and three. Two of them are on this golf course.

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Speaker 2: They were three and twenty eleven. Two thousand and eight

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Speaker 2: was the only other one. I think that just speaks

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Speaker 2: to the fact that everybody's gonna miss greens here. There's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit of don't I don't necessarily

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Speaker 2: want to say luck, but a little bit of randomness

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Speaker 2: involved if you end up in some of these really

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Speaker 2: catastrophic spots in these bunkers, only thirty four percent of

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Speaker 2: the field got up and down from the sand of

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Speaker 2: twenty eleven. I think that speaks to not only is

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Speaker 2: it difficult, but you can end up in some really

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Speaker 2: tough spots within those bunkers by the greens, and it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be kind of an interesting thing to keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on.

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Speaker 3: You might not say it, I'll say it. It comes

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Speaker 3: down to some luck at this place. Look, strokes gained.

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Speaker 3: Luck is going to be a very big metric this week.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of metrics and speaking of breaking down these courses, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Gonna admit I'm a little mad at you. I'm a

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Speaker 1: little in awe of you. I'm a little jealous of you.

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Speaker 3: You've done what I've tried to do in the past,

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Speaker 3: just didn't really have all the numbers there and didn't

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Speaker 3: really know how to do it, and the sample size

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Speaker 3: wasn't quite there.

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Speaker 1: For a lot of the players.

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Speaker 3: But you at PGA tour dot com have written a

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Speaker 3: piece breaking down the best links golfers right now, so

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Speaker 3: tell us who are they.

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Speaker 2: So a little bit of background, we were able to

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Speaker 2: gather every round played in European Tour events in soul

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Speaker 2: courses on the British Isles since twenty ten, So just

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Speaker 2: to give you the full disclaimer, Linksish type players, there's

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Speaker 2: not a real set, firm and fast type definition of

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Speaker 2: what links golf is. I know, we it's like you

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Speaker 2: know when you see it, right, you know when you

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Speaker 2: see it, And that's kind of the way we tried

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Speaker 2: to group that in the first guy that I started with,

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Speaker 2: I really had to dig deep, when you know, really

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Speaker 2: dig deep telling you how great John Rahm is it

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Speaker 2: links golf.

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Speaker 1: I mean, oh wow, that guy.

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Speaker 2: Oh unpredictable, you know for a dude. In his last

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Speaker 2: twelve rounds everywhere around the world, he's never been worse

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Speaker 2: than eleventh after any of them, and Birdie making Birdie

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Speaker 2: are better more than thirty percent of his holes in

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Speaker 2: that span, just on an unbelievable streak. But that's translated

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Speaker 2: to links golf. He averages one point eight strokes gain

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Speaker 2: per round on those style of courses in his career

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Speaker 2: so far, among all the players since twenty ten with

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Speaker 2: thirty or more rounds, that's the absolute best of anybody.

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Speaker 2: He absolutely crushes par fives on links courses, gains more

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Speaker 2: than a quarter of a stroke. He's able to take

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Speaker 2: advantage of his link and then he does it basically

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Speaker 2: everything well through his bag. I know that he he

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Speaker 2: does that pretty much every week. But that does continue

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Speaker 2: into links golf.

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Speaker 3: So what you got question for you? Sorry to cut

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Speaker 3: you off there, but I want to interject. Is it

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Speaker 3: fair to ask whether John Ram's win probability on a

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Speaker 3: links course is actually higher than on a parkland course?

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Speaker 3: And is it fair to suggest that John Ram's odds

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Speaker 3: should be shorter on a links course than on a

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Speaker 3: regular parkland course.

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Speaker 2: It's a good question. I would say that just from

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Speaker 2: a strict probability perspective, most of the time when you

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Speaker 2: play on these links courses outside of the Open Championship,

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Speaker 2: if you're in just a European Tour event, the field

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Speaker 2: strength is going to be a little bit lower than

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Speaker 2: the normal events that John Rom's and in the States,

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Speaker 2: and so yeah, inherently his win probability would go up.

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Speaker 2: But I will say that looking through the numbers, he

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Speaker 2: is better on links courses than he is on regular courses.

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Speaker 2: And that's saying something right like that's really speaking to

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Speaker 2: how good he's been in this tyle of golf, winning

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Speaker 2: the Irish Open a couple of times. His career has

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Speaker 2: just dotted with high finishes in all the different you know,

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Speaker 2: in all these different times he's played this title golf course.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, but if I were a RAM, I'd care

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Speaker 2: absolutely not at all about all that, because he's just

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Speaker 2: absolutely on fire and just rolling right now.

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Speaker 3: Can you make that point that John Rahm first of

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Speaker 3: all has a better win probability on a links course

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Speaker 3: than on a regular parkland course, and secondly that his

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Speaker 3: odds should be shorter on a links course than on

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Speaker 3: a parkland course.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think that his win probability going into this

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Speaker 2: will and in general when he goes to a links course,

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Speaker 2: is higher out of the gates. Now, over the scope

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Speaker 2: of his career, you're typically going to get if it's

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Speaker 2: not an Open Championship, you're going to get weaker fields

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Speaker 2: in some of those links courses. So inherently his win

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Speaker 2: probability would be higher in some of those European Tour events.

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Speaker 2: But yes, because he's had so much success in that limited,

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Speaker 2: you know, block of a dozen fifteen starts on these

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Speaker 2: link style courses in his pro career, he definitely would

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Speaker 2: have a higher win probability than normal. Another guy who does.

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Speaker 2: A guy who finished one shot out of a playoff

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Speaker 2: in twenty fifteen won the Open Championship two years later.

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Speaker 2: He leads all players since twenty fifteen at the Open,

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Speaker 2: in scoring average, in percentage of rounds in the sixties,

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Speaker 2: in one putts. He's got a lot ton of great

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Speaker 2: numbers at the Open Championship in his career. The biggest

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Speaker 2: number though, for him, he is excellent scrambling on links courses.

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Speaker 2: His scrambling percentage in his career on links courses is

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Speaker 2: more than ten percent better than the opposition than the

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Speaker 2: field average during that span, which is a huge number.

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Speaker 2: That is an enormous differential. It really separates him. He

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Speaker 2: gains two full strokes per round on the field on

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Speaker 2: links courses in his career. That's the best of any

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Speaker 2: player since twenty ten with twenty or more rounds. So

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Speaker 2: I know that historically you can throw Jordan's feet in

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Speaker 2: a lot of these youngest sins first since X conversations,

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Speaker 2: But as a links player, he has been excellent in

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Speaker 2: his career and he's somebody you've got to take into account.

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Speaker 2: Another guy who I was a little bit surprised, can

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Speaker 2: go ahead, Jason.

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Speaker 3: You've already nailed the guys who are two and three

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Speaker 3: on my list ranking the entire field so far this week,

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Speaker 3: by the way, so you're doing a very good job.

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Speaker 2: With this.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate that nice, very good.

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Speaker 2: I'm not I could I could, you know, confirm your

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Speaker 2: suspicions on that regard. So I'm gonna ask you this.

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Speaker 2: And you may have seen this earlier. I tweeted it out.

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Speaker 2: But the only player to finish in the top ten

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Speaker 2: each of the last two Open Championships twenty eighteen and

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen. It's a little surprised by this. I know

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Speaker 2: he had success at the Open and a really good

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Speaker 2: week in twenty nineteen when Shane row Lowry ultimately ran

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Speaker 2: away with it on Sunday. Do you know the player

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Speaker 2: I'm referring to.

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Speaker 3: I do because I follow you on Twitter, so I

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Speaker 3: happen to read your tweet about it, and.

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Speaker 1: I know that it's Tony fen Now.

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Speaker 3: And I'm still not buying your statistical analysis of Tony

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Speaker 3: fen Now being a great Links player.

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Speaker 1: I just I get it. I get the numbers, I

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Speaker 1: get that its math. I'm still I'm not buying into it. Sorry.

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Speaker 2: So Tony has been good to great at basically every

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Speaker 2: facet of golf in Links golf in his career. His

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Speaker 2: driving distance obviously is always a big issue, but he

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Speaker 2: can generate kind of a lower ball flight to take advance,

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Speaker 2: just some of the little bit of runout, more so

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Speaker 2: than like John Rahm who has a higher ballflight. Feenal

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Speaker 2: he can hit it any trajectory he wants, obviously, but

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Speaker 2: he averages twelve point six yards more than the field average,

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Speaker 2: and driving distance gets a huge head start. He's hit

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Speaker 2: more than seventy one percent of his greens and regulation

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Speaker 2: on links courses. That's a huge number. The big surprise

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Speaker 2: to me. His scrambling numbers are awesome on links courses

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Speaker 2: as well, and he has fewer plus per round than

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Speaker 2: the average player too. So I mean Tony Fenaw across

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Speaker 2: the board has been really exceptional in his career on

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Speaker 2: links courses. Averages one and a half strokes under par

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Speaker 2: per round in his career on links courses, which is

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Speaker 2: really exceptional because almost the entire sample size is at

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Speaker 2: the Open Championship. It's not at an Irish Open or

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Speaker 2: another Open, which you might have easier scoring conditions. So

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Speaker 2: he was a guy who was interesting, and I'll go

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Speaker 2: I'll give you one more name that I thought was

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Speaker 2: kind of interesting to look at because he's had a

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Speaker 2: really consistent Open Championship career. Best highlighted probably by one

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Speaker 2: really unfortunate moment down the stretch in twenty twelve. But

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Speaker 2: Adam Scott seven top twenty fives at the Open Championship

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Speaker 2: since twenty eleven, one of the most consistent performers in

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Speaker 2: links golf of the last decade, plus averages one point

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Speaker 2: seven strokes game total per round, a really good number

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Speaker 2: in his career, third best among players with forty or

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Speaker 2: more rounds in the study we did. So I think

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Speaker 2: Adam Scott has some value going into this week because

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Speaker 2: I mean he's way out on the odds board. I

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Speaker 2: like him to maybe top twenty, you're possibly even top ten.

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Speaker 2: But those are some of the guys who rate out

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Speaker 2: really high. X Ander Shoffley's another guy who rates out

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Speaker 2: really high who might be my favorite outright on the

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Speaker 2: board for the week.

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Speaker 3: I mentioned that I've got Spieth Rahm two to three

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Speaker 3: on the list for this coming week. Let's look at

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Speaker 3: the odds board just a little bit for this week,

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Speaker 3: John Rahm. These things are gonna change a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But it's Monday evening right now as we're recording John.

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Speaker 2: Someone else drop out yet?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is We've had sixteen players.

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Speaker 3: Drop out I said on the radio today that this

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Speaker 3: is going to be and I've been ranking the field

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Speaker 3: for years and years now, this is gonna be the toughest.

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Speaker 1: One to rank the whole field because at some.

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Speaker 3: Point another guy's gonna drop out and you can't just

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Speaker 3: slot in the next guy in at one fifty six,

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Speaker 3: Like it's going to be a decent player that gets

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Speaker 3: in as the seventeenth alter in it, and he's gonna

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Speaker 3: have to go to eighty seven and I'm gonna have

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Speaker 3: to like change the numbers for every player and move

275
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Speaker 3: everyone down and notch and it's gonna be really messy

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Speaker 3: for all the editing work that goes into.

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Speaker 2: Gonna be like during the NFL draft, you know they

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Speaker 2: have the mel Kuiper's best available. That's gonna be kind

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Speaker 2: of what the situation where you have going, well, that

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Speaker 2: guy's off the board. That guy's off the board moving

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Speaker 2: throughout the entire week. So hopefully not and hopefully we

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Speaker 2: don't have that. Hopefully that we've hit our number and

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Speaker 2: the guys are safely over there, no more COVID and

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Speaker 2: we're able to have the championship. But definitely a storyline

285
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Speaker 2: to keep an eye on because they were dropping like flies.

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Speaker 3: Man Among those who are out at Deki Matsuyama, the

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Speaker 3: Master's Champion, Bubba Watson is out, Zach Johnson is now out,

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Speaker 3: and you know, I felt really badly for the CBS crew,

289
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Speaker 3: which was doing a great job covering the John Deer Classic.

290
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Speaker 3: Lucas Glover finished before the last few groups, and they're

291
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Speaker 3: it looks like he's gonna win the trying to develop

292
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Speaker 3: some storylines to the last few players. They're talking about

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Speaker 3: Ryan Moore and if he finishes above everyone else who's

294
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Speaker 3: already in the field, then he gets into the open

295
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Speaker 3: Championship field and what a great finish that would be

296
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Speaker 3: for Ryan Moore and he gets to make the trip.

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Speaker 1: And get on the plane.

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Speaker 3: And they've been talking about that for the last thirty

299
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Speaker 3: minutes of the telecast or so, and then More finishes

300
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Speaker 3: up and says, no, I'm not going that's okay, And

301
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Speaker 3: so it's just another just another guy who's just nah,

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Speaker 3: it's just it's too much.

303
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Speaker 1: I'm staying out.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, there's been I believe the numbers up to

305
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Speaker 3: sixteen players who for travel reasons, for COVID reasons, for

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00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,080
Speaker 3: other reasons, for reasons not even given have decided not

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Speaker 3: to play this week, but if those playing John Rahm

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Speaker 3: eight to one.

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Speaker 1: We talked all about.

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Speaker 3: Him and his win probability on a links course, you

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Speaker 3: do make a really good point, Jay Ray, that maybe

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Speaker 3: it's just even more impressive that he's played so well

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Speaker 3: on links courses because he does have a high ball flight,

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Speaker 3: maybe hits it higher than any other elite player in

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Speaker 3: the world.

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Speaker 2: Just says everything really well. I think that's what it

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Speaker 2: speaks to, is that, I mean, you can basically his

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Speaker 2: course type at this point is just Earth, So I

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Speaker 2: mean it's you know, he fits basically everywhere, and you

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Speaker 2: know the links courses are no exception. He's been able

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Speaker 2: to excel and modify his game when needed, hit the

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Speaker 2: right shots. You know, he's a creative shot maker. I

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Speaker 2: don't think he gets enough credit for that as well.

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Speaker 2: You know, I wonder if you think maybe he's one

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Speaker 2: of the biggest favorites we've had going into an Open

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Speaker 2: Championship in some time, because I think, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think I was thinking about a few years ago when

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Speaker 2: DJs slipped on the Stairs. He had won three times

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Speaker 2: in a row going into the Masters, that was a

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Speaker 2: pretty big favorite. But going into a major championship. It's

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Speaker 2: tough to think of, you know. I see him at

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Speaker 2: eight to one and next is eighteen to one. It's

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Speaker 2: a pretty big separation there.

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Speaker 3: Things are changing, things are moving by the minute right here.

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Speaker 3: But John Rahm Jordan's speeth is he's moving a little

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Speaker 3: bit in the markets.

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Speaker 1: He is h fourteen to one.

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Speaker 3: The sixteen to one, maybe even find him still at

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Speaker 3: eighteen to one, so that's about.

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Speaker 1: Where he started the week.

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Speaker 3: Brooks Koepka right behind him, followed by Rory mclroy, Dustin Johnson,

342
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Speaker 3: Xander Shaffley, a lot of the usual names. Justin Thomas

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Speaker 3: still holding study at twenty to one. That's an interesting

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Speaker 3: number there for JT. Colin Morrikowa and louisous Day is

345
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Speaker 3: at twenty five to one. Moving a little bit further

346
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Speaker 3: in this top tier. Bryson de Shambo at thirty, Victor

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Speaker 3: Hoveland at thirty, and then we get into the tyr Olhatton,

348
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Speaker 3: Patrick Reid, Patrick Can'tley, Paul Casey mix around thirty five

349
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Speaker 3: to one.

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Speaker 1: That kind of closed out that top tier right there.

351
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Speaker 3: Obviously, we like rom he is the best player in

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Speaker 3: the world, even if he has moved down to number

353
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Speaker 3: two after a seventh place finished at the Scottish Open

354
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Speaker 3: last week.

355
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Speaker 1: Which doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense

356
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Speaker 1: when Dustin Johnson wasn't playing.

357
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Speaker 2: But I turn your pitchforks in your and your blowtorches

358
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 2: towards the O WGR anytime that happens, right.

359
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Speaker 1: I love I love doing that.

360
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Speaker 3: I put it on social media and people are like,

361
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Speaker 3: how could that happen?

362
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Speaker 1: I'm like, well, it's math. But people like to get

363
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Speaker 1: fired up about math.

364
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 2: And does it love math? Come on? Everyone's favorite, especially

365
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,560
Speaker 2: when you get sports and just ruin it with math.

366
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Speaker 1: Of this top tier, who's your favorite playing here?

367
00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 3: Who's a guy that you might actually bet from the

368
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,000
Speaker 3: top tier that has.

369
00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 1: A you know you think has a decent price next

370
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Speaker 1: to his name.

371
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking down a little bit, but not too far.

372
00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 2: A guy I mentioned it has really pretty terrific prowess

373
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Speaker 2: on links courses throughout his career. It's a small sample

374
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,560
Speaker 2: size so far, but he's been really impressive. Sander Schoff

375
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 2: is a machine in major championships. We know how good

376
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 2: he is, finishing in the top ten more than half

377
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 2: of his career appearances in the majors. He ranks fourth

378
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: or better in every scoring statistic in the major championship

379
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 2: since twenty seventeen, gains more than one point eight strokes

380
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 2: per round on the field on links courses, had a

381
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 2: top ten finish in the Scottish Open. And another thing

382
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 2: I like that I noticed he has gone back to

383
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 2: his conventional putting grip, which was a source of a

384
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 2: lot of contention at the US Open. I like that

385
00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 2: move for a lot of obvious reasons. I think I've

386
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,320
Speaker 2: got to look, we know at some point he's gonna

387
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 2: break through and win a major championship, right, He's just

388
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 2: too talented. I know he hasn't won in a while,

389
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,359
Speaker 2: so there might be a little bit of fear there.

390
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 2: But maybe, hey, maybe that increases that win equity number

391
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,280
Speaker 2: just a little bit for you, so thinking that maybe

392
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: he's due. So I like Xander a lot this week.

393
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 1: I don't know what you think.

394
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,120
Speaker 3: I like Xander and it's hard to argue his major

395
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 3: championship record. What I don't like is that number for

396
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,440
Speaker 3: a guy who hasn't won a golf tournament in two

397
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:26,119
Speaker 3: and a half years.

398
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,439
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fair, It's more than just a coincidence.

399
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:31,920
Speaker 3: At this point, it's a trend, it's a pattern, and

400
00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 3: the guy hasn't been winning.

401
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 1: He plays great.

402
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 3: I think he has all the tools to be a

403
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 3: number one golfer in the world, and I think he's

404
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,200
Speaker 3: a tremendous player, but at some point he's got to

405
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 3: win something, and this is too long without a win

406
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 3: for me to back him. At a major championship where

407
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,159
Speaker 3: a lot of other factors and variables can come into play.

408
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 3: I like Jordan Spieth a lot this week. I like

409
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 3: Rory mclory a decent amount this week. If I have

410
00:17:55,560 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 3: to bet one of those guys outright from that top tier,

411
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 3: I'm going with a guy that has a high ceiling

412
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 3: and a low floor. I have no idea what to

413
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:06,879
Speaker 3: expect from Victor Hoblin this week.

414
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 1: It could blow up on me.

415
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 3: He could easily miss the cut and just you know,

416
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 3: he throws a nine out there somewhere and gets lost

417
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 3: in a bunker and just never regains it. Or he

418
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 3: could just get on fire. Look, he says, I suck

419
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 3: at chipping, you don't you know? The chipping's different over there.

420
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: You can kind of just punch at him a little bit,

421
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 3: and this dude just hits.

422
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,879
Speaker 2: Seventeen and doesn't have to worry about chipping right all

423
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:29,359
Speaker 2: that too.

424
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean he's totally capable. He's certainly capable of it.

425
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 3: I think that at some point in the next few years,

426
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 3: Victor Hovelin's game becomes more consistent. I think that right now, though,

427
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: like I said, he's got that high ceiling. I mean,

428
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone would be surprised if Victor Hoveln

429
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 3: comes out as the champion golfer of the year this week.

430
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,640
Speaker 3: But I also think that there's some misscut equity as

431
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,880
Speaker 3: well that you can sit there like basically just bet

432
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 3: him outright and bet him to miss the cut and

433
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 3: one of those could hit so.

434
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 2: H one his last start too, right DMW.

435
00:18:59,280 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: Yes he did?

436
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 2: There you go? I mean, don't.

437
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 1: I don't mind it.

438
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 3: You know, I think that if I'm looking at those

439
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,120
Speaker 3: top tier players, he's a guy that I like, We.

440
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 2: All agree he's gonna win a major championship at some point,

441
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 2: just like Xander Shofli. But there's a few guys I

442
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,359
Speaker 2: just like a little bit more than him this week.

443
00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 3: All right, So, mister analytics, you're not gonna like this

444
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,200
Speaker 3: at all, But life's all about balance Jason.

445
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: All right, okay, you know, all right, life's all about balance.

446
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 2: Why I enjoy a drink or two at night, even

447
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 2: if I worked out that day. You gotta balance things out. Okay,

448
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 2: So a little bit of a non analytics that's fine.

449
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: I'm good with that.

450
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 3: Well, see what your balance scales think about me going

451
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 3: with Strokes game magic this week. You look at the

452
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 3: first three major champions and I'm trying to find some

453
00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 3: sort of trend, some pattern going into this one. Basically,

454
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 3: the first three majors of the year I have given

455
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 3: us great storylines. So Deki Matsuya, I'm a first Japanese

456
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 3: player on the men's side to ever win a major championship,

457
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 3: great story in his homeland, and you know, obviously brought

458
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 3: a lot of eyeballs to the game. Phil Mickelson nuff said,

459
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 3: I think we all understand what Phil has done for

460
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:06,879
Speaker 3: the game, and winning at the age of fifty, the

461
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 3: oldest major champion to.

462
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:08,919
Speaker 1: Ever do it.

463
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 3: And of course John Rahm, who had fate and destiny

464
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 3: and karma and all sorts of things working in his

465
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 3: favorite Tory Pines, all which leads to my favorite play

466
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 3: on the board this week, Lee John Westwood, who, of course,

467
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,360
Speaker 3: is I believe, set to tie or break the all

468
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,439
Speaker 3: time record for most major appearances.

469
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: Without a victory. I don't think he gets there.

470
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,959
Speaker 3: I say, he goes out and wins this thing at

471
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 3: the age of forty eight, maybe inspired a little bit

472
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 3: by Phil Micholson.

473
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: He's in a great spot in his career.

474
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,639
Speaker 3: In fact, this pick date sixteen months back to the

475
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 3: Honda Classic last year, which I know is a weird

476
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 3: place to make your twenty twenty one Open Championship pick.

477
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 3: At the twenty twenty Honda Classic.

478
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: But remember speaking.

479
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 2: West Palm Beaches, where all futures are decided. I mean, let's.

480
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. It's usually the end of the future for

481
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 1: a lot of people in westbot.

482
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 2: Not much future left.

483
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 3: I reme over speaking to Westwood there, and I'm talking

484
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: to him and I said, Leek, you seem like happy

485
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,679
Speaker 3: and relaxed and refreshed and recharged.

486
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 1: I said, what's going on?

487
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: He goes, yeah, life is awesome, said you know, I'm

488
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 3: having a great time. If I feel like playing golf,

489
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 3: I play golf. If I don't feel like playing golf,

490
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 3: I don't play golf. I do whatever I want, whenever

491
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 3: I want. And I'm having the time my life right now.

492
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: I walked away from that interview thinking to myself, this

493
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 3: man is going to win the Open Championship this year,

494
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 3: and I think he might have except for one little

495
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 3: problem is that they didn't play the Open Championship last year,

496
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 3: so I'm hoping that it translates into this year instead

497
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 3: and this week.

498
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: And I still like him. He's still playing solid golf.

499
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 3: I had a couple of good rounds at the Scottish

500
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 3: Open last week before falling back a little bit off the.

501
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 1: Pace on the weekend.

502
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: But this is the type of place where, look, you're

503
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 3: not going to overpower. It takes experience and guile and

504
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: intelligence and creativity and precision and all of the things

505
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 3: that Lee Westwood has basically had for the entirety of

506
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 3: his career in the last twenty five years. And so

507
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 3: he's my play this week, and I just think the

508
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 3: storylines can continue.

509
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 2: It's interesting. I mean, look, the Open Championship values experience

510
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 2: more than any of the other majors by far. Since

511
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 2: twenty eleven, the average age of winners at the Open,

512
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 2: I think it's just over thirty five, which is far

513
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: and away the oldest average of anybody, and that's with

514
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 2: Phil winning at fifty. It still is a consistent you know,

515
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 2: it yields. There's a reward there for experience. There's a

516
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: reward there for knowing how where to leave your shots

517
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: and how to play links golf and or you know,

518
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 2: Linksish golf, whatever you want to call it. It's it's

519
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,400
Speaker 2: interesting and it would certainly look you've waited long enough England,

520
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: right like we you know the phrase I heard about

521
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 2: ten million times over the last few months as it's

522
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 2: coming home, and it didn't quite but this would be

523
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 2: a nice consolation prize. I think that could probably you know,

524
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: the lights being sports fans and really golf fans everywhere.

525
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I've contended for years that if Lee Westwood

526
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 2: was American, he would be one of the most popular

527
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 2: players in the world and or here in the States.

528
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: He already has been one of the most popular in

529
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: the world, but in the United States he would have

530
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: been even more popular than he is now here. So yeah,

531
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: it'd be an incredible story. That's not where I'm going.

532
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: At a similar price point, I've got a guy you

533
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 2: know you threw you said, you know, you screw your

534
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 2: analytics nerd boy. That's kind of the phrase I heard

535
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: from you.

536
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: But I did not call you nerd boy.

537
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: Oh that's our way.

538
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's nerd man.

539
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 2: Yes, there you go. That's good.

540
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 4: I'm a father now, Jason Birdman, I'm looking at a

541
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 4: guy that I know. That look he gets ragged on

542
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 4: because he's he hasn't broken through with that second victory.

543
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 4: But Tony fen Now has been exceptional on links courses

544
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 4: throughout his career, the only player as we talked about,

545
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: to finish in the top ten both twenty eighteen to

546
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 4: twenty nineteen.

547
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 2: I think forty five to one. He's like, that's a

548
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: wild number for me for a guy who's that talented,

549
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: has had that many high finishes. So and even if

550
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: you're not really, if you're not taking that candy to

551
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 2: win the whole thing, there's got to be out for

552
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 2: you for a top ten. You're not.

553
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: You're saying no way, But he keeps You've sold me

554
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 3: on everything you've said so far except all the Tony

555
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 3: female stuff.

556
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Well let's go. Let's go a

557
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: little bit lower than because I've got a couple other

558
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: guys that might that might fit. That makes a little

559
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 2: that make a little more sense, and this is really

560
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 2: further down the board. A guy that Adam Scott is

561
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten to one, and I know I

562
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 2: talked about earlier how consistent he's been over the years

563
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 2: on links courses. Seven top twenty fives of the Open

564
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 2: Championships since twenty eleven. The average is about one point

565
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: seven strokes game par around on links courses over the

566
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: last decade, a really high number. I think that's a

567
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: crazy number. I've got him to top twenty, he has

568
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: top twenties and two of his last three starts. It

569
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,919
Speaker 2: fit the narrative of the veteran player succeeding and breaking

570
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 2: through another big win in twenty twenty one. I could

571
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: see him contending and then a guy I like last

572
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 2: week you go down the board, mister Amarillo, Texas. Ryan

573
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: Palmer played awesome at the Scottish Open. He's a guy

574
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 2: who I really think would be inspired. I know I

575
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 2: talked about this last week and I'll probably mentioned it

576
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 2: again at some point on the pot, but inspired by

577
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: guys like his peers, Stuart Sink, Phil Mickelson, Lucas Glover.

578
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: These are guys he's been playing golf with for fifteen

579
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 2: twenty years, and you know, I think it would be

580
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: a great story for Ryan Palmer to contend. So I

581
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 2: don't have him winning the Open Championship, but you know,

582
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: I think I might have a ticket on him the

583
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: top ten.

584
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't mind that whatsoever. And he's got a

585
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: big number next to his name this week too.

586
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know the win equity is necessarily there,

587
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 3: but yeah, for a top ten, certainly don't mind it.

588
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: A few other mid tier plays that I like from

589
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 3: guys that again not for outrights for top ten's top twenties.

590
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 3: Christ John Bizdenhout who has shown up at major championship

591
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 3: so he was let me see if I get this

592
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 3: right T five. I believe going into the weekend at

593
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: going into the final round at Kiowa shot seventy seven,

594
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: he was Team nine going into the final round at

595
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 3: Tory Pine shot seventy six.

596
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 2: Now.

597
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people could extrapolate that information.

598
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 3: And say, well, he can't get it done on the

599
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 3: final day when it means the most.

600
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: I would take that information and say.

601
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: Okay, he's still learning how to deal with final round

602
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: major championship pressure. Those experiences should steal him for the

603
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 3: next time that he's in those situations, and so I

604
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: do like him. Corey Connors, who played terribly on Thursday

605
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 3: at the Scottish, played great on Friday at the Scottish.

606
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 3: I think that Friday ball striking will carry over to

607
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: this week. Brandon Grace, who have been on a lot recently.

608
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: I liked him to win the Scottish last week.

609
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: Apparently that didn't happen.

610
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 3: I'm still checking around to see if why his name's

611
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 3: not at the top, but I still like him moving

612
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 3: forward last week and here's you will call me with

613
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 3: Tony few, I will see your Tony fein now and

614
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: raise you a Jason Day. I know a lot of

615
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 3: people haven't even heard Jason Day's name in a long time.

616
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: Jason's been tenth and fourteenth in his last two starts.

617
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 3: He's played well at the Open in the past and luck.

618
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 3: I don't want to delve into a player's family life person,

619
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 3: but just recently at his fourth child, I can't imagine

620
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 3: the family's traveling with him. Just a chance to get away,

621
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 3: to be out on your own, to go abroad to

622
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: sort of just.

623
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 1: Kind of you know. Caddy is a buddy of his

624
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 1: they're going to hang out and have a good time.

625
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: That might be the secret formula for Jason Day this week.

626
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 3: I like him because of that.

627
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: I think you're speaking my language here with this break

628
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 2: away with a newborn. I recently was on the road

629
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 2: for the first time and I missed the hell out

630
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 2: of my son and be with my wife and son, obviously,

631
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 2: but there's something to be said there about that sleeping

632
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 2: through the night. Little extra value there. And you're right,

633
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Jason Day played played well the Travelers Championship,

634
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 2: was contending into the weekend. That's interesting. That's an interesting call,

635
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: I mean, and we know what the ceiling is for

636
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: that guy, right, I mean, there was a stretch there

637
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 2: for eighteen months where he was far and away the

638
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 2: best player on the planet. He was nearly in that

639
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: really memorable twenty fifteen Open cham ship coming down the stretch.

640
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 2: You know, we all probably remember Jordan Spieth nearly getting

641
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 2: into the playoff, but Jason Daviss the playoff by one shot,

642
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: as well as Zach Johnson ultimately won. So that's an

643
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: interesting call. Just look at a little bit further down

644
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: the board a couple other guys who are interesting. Sam

645
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,479
Speaker 2: Burns is somebody who just continues to just kind of

646
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: explosively pop up in places and you see like how

647
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 2: talented he is. It's probably not all there. I don't

648
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 2: think that's it's not the finished product yet, right Like

649
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: he's he's going to be somebody who's gonna be wrecking

650
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: with in the future. But way down the board at

651
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: ninety to one, he's kind of interesting to me. Is

652
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 2: maybe to take a flyer on.

653
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 3: We're gonna make our DraftKings line up in a little

654
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 3: bit here on the pod. I'm not sure if you've

655
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: checked out DraftKings yet and looked at Sam Burns. But

656
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: somebody missed something on that algorithm. Somebody didn't carry a

657
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 3: one somewhere, and Sam Burns is going to be your

658
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: secret bingos square it.

659
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Oh yeah, Okay, I'm good with Burns.

660
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 2: All right? Nice?

661
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: Anybody else?

662
00:28:58,280 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 2: Is there?

663
00:28:58,680 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: Is there a Ben Curtis out there?

664
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: Is there a guy that's just he's a million to

665
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: one and hey, take a chance on him. I'll give you, okay,

666
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 3: give you two names. One really doesn't fit. One's more

667
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: of a I guess Darren Clark type of odds as

668
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 3: opposed to Ben Curtis. But all right, I'll give you

669
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 3: two guys.

670
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: On the European Tour. Guido Migliazzi.

671
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: We saw play really well at Tory Pines T four.

672
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 3: I think you'd argue that Royal Saint George's might be

673
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: more his speed than Tory Pines. And so I like

674
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: Guido this week, Always like Guido.

675
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: One other guy I like.

676
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 3: I mentioned him on the podcast last week and you

677
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 3: immediately jumped on me and said, oh, well, he's missed

678
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 3: four cuts in a row. Well, you know what, now

679
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 3: he's made one cut.

680
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 2: In a row.

681
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: Victor Perez. He's a top fifty player in the world.

682
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 3: This guy's a guy with a great swing, and when

683
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: he's got it going, he gets going really well. He

684
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 3: obviously has some experience playing over in Europe. So I

685
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 3: think there's a decent number on Victor Perez. I like

686
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 3: that guy.

687
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: So I was trying to scour the bottom of the

688
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 2: odds board here, just dig deep, see if I could

689
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: come up with a Ben Curtis equivalent. It's somewhere. And

690
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: I looked at the guy. I'm like, oh, this guy

691
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: shot sixty three at an Open Championship before What's how

692
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: song we've been up to full disclosure, not completely aware

693
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: of what his record has been this year. Mister how

694
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 2: Song hasn't played a weekend round this year anywhere. He's

695
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 2: w d or missed cut in every event he's played

696
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: around the world this year. Eight in the sport if

697
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 2: you play on the weekend.

698
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, but having weekends off is nice.

699
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 2: It can't be Yeah, sure, it's probably not good for

700
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: his bank account. His caddy's probably not ecstatic about that.

701
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna back I'm just back away, and you

702
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: just trying to do some spur the moment research live recording.

703
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna slowly back away from how Tong week. Okay, no,

704
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: how Tong this week. Armitage is That's an interesting call.

705
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 2: A name I saw on here that I always pick

706
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: if you can neutralize putting has been on, but been

707
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: on has a horrific links golf record in his career,

708
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 2: So I'll avoid him. I'll go to the guy who's

709
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 2: who's flashed in some major championships. He had a top

710
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 2: ten at the Open a few years ago. You know,

711
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 2: Danny Willet's played better golf recently. He's two fifty to one.

712
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna pick obviously, but it just seems like

713
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 2: every year we've got a past major champion at the

714
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: Open Championship who plays some good golf. I could see

715
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 2: him with a top twenty finish. It's so hard to

716
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 2: find somebody down the board. I mean, you're asking me

717
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: to be our guest here in a minute, Sam Harrap,

718
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: who just went with Min Woulee out of the gates,

719
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: just just a flame thrower. But yeah, I mean, it's

720
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: it's tough to find a value like that, right, I mean,

721
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: we've had Phil Mickelson's the only player ranked outside the

722
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 2: top fifty in the world rankings to win a major

723
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: since the beginning of twenty twelve, so we don't see

724
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 2: it a lot in the game now. But yeah, if

725
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: you've got to go deep, I'll pick a guy who's

726
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 2: won a major championship and had some high finishes before.

727
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 2: Danny Willett.

728
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: It's interesting you say Willet's name, because I've often likened

729
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 3: Willet to Martin Kaimer. I think they're sort of similar

730
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 3: type of players. Kind of, Hey, when they're on their game,

731
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: they can play with anybody, but they're usually not on

732
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: their game, and so you never really know when they're

733
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: gonna kind of he can and start playing great golf.

734
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: But Danny willets record.

735
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 3: If he wins this week, and I get it that

736
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 3: that's a major major if, but it looks.

737
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: Very similar to Martin Kimers with.

738
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: Two major two guys, two guys you know Ryder Cup

739
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 2: team members, and more so though, two guys who are

740
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: interested in other stuff too, you know, in life and

741
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: not just you know, golf hardcore all the time. So yeah,

742
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: I don't know, if you got to dig deep. He's

743
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: somebody who's got a really good short game when it's on,

744
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: and that's going to be valuable.

745
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: Here this week of will s.

746
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 3: George's all right, without further ado, Let's get to our

747
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 3: favorite Englishman on the board, Sam Harrick, or as we

748
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 3: call him around here, the Min Wu Lee Whisperer. If

749
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: you were listening to the pod last week, Sam came

750
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 3: on and told us all about Min wou Lee and

751
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 3: how you know, he hasn't been playing great golf, but

752
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 3: he really likes the twenty two year old and you

753
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 3: might want to take a chance on him.

754
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: What a great call, Sam, that earned you another trip back.

755
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 2: To the pod.

756
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 5: Thanks Jason.

757
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, obviously an outside an outside pick, but he's a

758
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 6: player that I've been watching for Cup for the years,

759
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 6: ever since he got his made him win on the

760
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 6: European Tour, and I thought, you know, he's got massive

761
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 6: potential and he just yeah, I thought there was enough

762
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 6: going for him to take take a chance at that

763
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 6: price and positive thoughts on Instagram with a kicker. You know,

764
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 6: I know you weren't sure about that as a as

765
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 6: a premise to back someone, but you know.

766
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: No, obviously, always look at Instagram for players, and that's

767
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 3: where you're gonna get all of your best picks from

768
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: now on. As I told you on Twitter, Sam, you're

769
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: supposed to start out by sandbagging a little bit so

770
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 3: that you know we can give you shot and staid

771
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: like you're coming on as a plus five now based

772
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 3: on that pick. So you're gonna have to give me

773
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: in j Ray some shots.

774
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it'll probably happen this week, let's be honest.

775
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 6: I mean, you know I'm not going to go back

776
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 6: to back one hundred and fifty to one shots anyway.

777
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 3: No, No, that's why everybody's listening right now. I mean,

778
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 3: no pressure or anything, but you better nail this pick

779
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 3: once again. So let's get right into it. What are

780
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: you looking at from the top of the board, who

781
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 3: are your favorite outrights? And let's get into what you

782
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 3: think of the golf course at World Saint George's as well.

783
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, so it's a I mean, I think it's quite

784
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 6: a quirky open venue really, you know, it's it's slightly

785
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 6: given to the others in his past seventy you know

786
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 6: that it's Yeah, it's it's an interesting challenge, and it's

787
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 6: an interesting challenge from a you know, betting perspective to

788
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 6: kind of pick through the players, especially those who haven't

789
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 6: played the course before, especially those who haven't played a

790
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 6: lot of links golf. But top of the board for me,

791
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 6: Xander Schoffle is the one that I like of those

792
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 6: of the kind of shorter prices. You know, everyone will agree.

793
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 6: I'm sure that he's going to win a major at

794
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 6: some point soon, sooner rather than later, and I actually

795
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 6: quite like him to do it here where maybe there's

796
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 6: a bit less pressure than there is for you know,

797
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 6: something like the US Open. You know, he's sort of

798
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 6: home open. I think coming over here there's a bit

799
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 6: less pressure. You know, he played, you know, really well

800
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 6: last week, finished tenth in Scotland as good warm up.

801
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 6: And I think the big thing is he's finishing in

802
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,720
Speaker 6: the top ten and four of his last six majors,

803
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 6: and that's just you know, that says a lot. And

804
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 6: he was runner up at Carneistie in what I think

805
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 6: are going to be relatively similar conditions to what we'll

806
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 6: see this week in terms of the you know that

807
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 6: I think the course at the moment is probably a

808
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 6: little bit soft, but the weather from kind of Wednesday

809
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 6: on which is going to be hot and someday it's

810
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 6: going to really try out. So yeah, eighteen to one.

811
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 6: You know, it's not a huge price, but you know,

812
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 6: of those of those kind of shorter prices, he's the

813
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 6: one that I think I'm going to, you know, pin

814
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 6: my hopest on.

815
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, seventeen major starts for Xander Shoffling, now nine top

816
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: ten finishes. You can't really have a better start to

817
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 2: a major championship career than he's had. And another number

818
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 2: I really like. I wrote a piece for PGA tour

819
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: dot com that went up on Monday about some of

820
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: the players who have really excelled on link style golf

821
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 2: courses over the last few years and Xander has gained

822
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: nearly two full strokes per round on the field on

823
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: link style golf courses and I kind of classified it

824
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: as coastal courses on the British Isles. So not a

825
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: ton of a sample size there for Xander. But you

826
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 2: know who I like a lot too. Look, get a

827
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: little bit further down the board, you know, you get

828
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 2: beyond those favorites. Who's somebody you think maybe in that

829
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: kind of second tier if you classify that this week?

830
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 6: Yeah, so a couple So Sergio Garcia, I think maybe

831
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 6: being a little bit slept on at the moment. You know,

832
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 6: great great links player. You know, he's six six to

833
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 6: one course for me here. You know, he's finished tenth

834
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 6: and ninth and the is two roles in Georgia starts

835
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 6: and then current for you know, his last three starts

836
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 6: he's finished in the top twenty.

837
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 5: So you know, his game is obviously in a decent place.

838
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 5: Yeah he's not.

839
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 6: You know, he's kind of been quite relatively quiet, you know,

840
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 6: since his since his win. But he's he's one of

841
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,400
Speaker 6: these players he would just show up on the on

842
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 6: the big occasion and I think, you know, obviously the

843
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 6: question mark always with him as his putting, isn't it.

844
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 6: But I think the kind of links, you know, the

845
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 6: links greens are probably suit him better than probably anything

846
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 6: else when it comes to that. So yeah, I think

847
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 6: it's a good price over you know, a major champion

848
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 6: and a links specialist.

849
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind that.

850
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 3: And Sergio went through really like a three year span

851
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 3: where his Major championship performances were brutal and then finally

852
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 3: just put together a good one at Tory Pine, so

853
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 3: at least enough to get us to think, Okay, he

854
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 3: can still play the major championship. It's not like something

855
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 3: in his head. It's not a mental block, it's not

856
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 3: anything else that he can at least go out there

857
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 3: and post a couple of good scores. So I don't

858
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 3: dislike Sergio this week either. Let's get into some of

859
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: these bigger numbers too. Darren Clark won ten years ago

860
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 3: on this very golf course, one hundred and fifty to one.

861
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 3: Before that, eight years before it, Ben Curtis, who was

862
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: I've done the research anywhere from three hundred to one

863
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: to five hundred to one if he even knew his

864
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 3: name at that point. He had never won on the

865
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 3: professional level before I just I'm still waiting. There's got

866
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 3: to be a story of somebody out there that like, oh,

867
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 3: I thought it was Curtis Strange, I thought it was

868
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: Ben somebody like, yeah, Ben Craze. I thought it was

869
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 3: someone else that I'd been on the wrong guy, And oops,

870
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 3: I got a Ben Curtis ticket out there.

871
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: I think is his nickname afterwards.

872
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 3: Should have just been Field because he was probably more

873
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 3: field bets than anything else. But there is at least

874
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 3: a very small sample size of a pattern of long

875
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 3: shots that have won on this golf course. So anybody

876
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: from those big numbers, Sam that you're looking.

877
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 6: At, Yeah, so I kind of really rank outside or

878
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 6: two of them.

879
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 5: Richard Bland.

880
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 6: You know, everyone knows the story about Bland, and really,

881
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 6: you know, for me, it's it's more of a top

882
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 6: top ten play. He's fourteen to one for top ten,

883
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 6: he's two hundred to one for the win. Maybe there's

884
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,720
Speaker 6: a lot to ask, but you know, he was twenty

885
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 6: second in his only he's only played the open ones.

886
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 6: He's twenty second now, was in twenty seventeen. You know,

887
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 6: he's kept playing well ever since he ever since he won,

888
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 6: you know, the British Masters it's not like he you know,

889
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 6: he won this event and then suddenly his form, you know,

890
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 6: he's basically reverted to you know, the Norman He's He's

891
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 6: continued to play really well. He's fourth in Ireland, fifteenth

892
00:38:56,160 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 6: last week in Scotland. You know, ball striking was great

893
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 6: last week as well, which is obviously a good sign.

894
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 6: And obviously, as Darren Clark proved, you know that kind

895
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,800
Speaker 6: of oldies, oldies can win here. Obviously he's even older

896
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 6: than than Darren Clark was when he won here. But

897
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 6: it's the year of the oldie, right.

898
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so far the guy at the top of my

899
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 3: list is h He's not a young guy whatsoever. So

900
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 3: you know, certainly we can see some of these old

901
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 3: guys up there near the top now saying I've got

902
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,399
Speaker 3: to ask you. I know your heartbroken, as were many

903
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 3: of your fellow englishmen and women on Sunday afternoon, but

904
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 3: it was coming home.

905
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,879
Speaker 1: It didn't come home. Can the other it come home?

906
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: Can the Claric jug come home to England this week?

907
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: And if so, who would be the player? Yeah?

908
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 5: I mean it can do, it can do.

909
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 6: I mean it'd be interesting to know whether or not

910
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 6: that the football result will have an impact on players

911
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 6: belief or if we had one, whether that might have

912
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 6: had a positive effect. But you know, I did look

913
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 6: at Lee Westward for for a long while. You know,

914
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 6: he played so well last week. You know, he's obviously

915
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 6: obviously a link specialist, and he's been playing great golf,

916
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 6: even better, it seems having his new wife on the back.

917
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 6: The only the only question mark over him is his

918
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 6: actual course from here at Rolston George, which is not

919
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 6: just doesn't look good, but yeah, but he you know,

920
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 6: I think he had I think he did well here

921
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 6: as an amateurs, so you know, he knows he's had

922
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 6: to play play well here. He's probably the one i'd

923
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 6: look at, you know, will happen is the other is

924
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 6: the other obvious one.

925
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 2: I'll give you another guy. I know. Westwood is the

926
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 2: English tug the heartstrings story, and I've talked with We

927
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 2: talked Jason and I have talked numerous times about how

928
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,399
Speaker 2: him winning the Open Championship this year would be one

929
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 2: of the great stories and sports all over the world

930
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 2: for the year. Ian Poulter shot sixty three Sunday at

931
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 2: the Scottish Open, and he's been sneakily playing some pretty

932
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: consistent golf. He's still in Elite Potter. He is the

933
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 2: third most one part for around and major championship championship

934
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen. He would be a pretty remarkable one too.

935
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 2: I know that we always have it's a Ryder Cup year.

936
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 2: Ian Poulter is gonna play well, Well, there's more to

937
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: it than that. He's played some pretty good golf recently.

938
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 2: I kind of and he would fit that veteran player

939
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 2: mold that we've seen this year Stuart Sink success is

940
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 2: Phil Micholson. Obviously, Lucas Glover won yesterday at the John Deere,

941
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 2: So I don't know kind of a that's somebody that I'll.

942
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:31,400
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943
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,400
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970
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971
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972
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973
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,200
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974
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 7: Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

975
00:42:57,960 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 1: And there it goes our friend Sam.

976
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 3: If he picks another winner like min Wu Lee, either

977
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 3: he will not be invited back on the podcast next week,

978
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 3: or we'll just give him the podcast that you can

979
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 3: just take.

980
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: Over for us, Jay Ray, Yeah, no kidding, Just go

981
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 2: ahead and take my spot.

982
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: Pal, want to be a DFS millionaire.

983
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 2: You're just one lineup away.

984
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 7: We're gonna go with him, and you're gonna play better

985
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 7: than you ever dreamed of.

986
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 2: God damn it, that's what.

987
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: I demand of you.

988
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: So let's get drafting, all right, Let's.

989
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 1: Move on to our DraftKings lineup.

990
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 3: We do it every week here on the podcast, uh

991
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 3: picking six players, going back and forth. Usually J Ray,

992
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 3: I defer to you and let you have the first pick.

993
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 3: This week, I am electing to receive. I want the

994
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:50,919
Speaker 3: first pick, and I'm going with the most underpriced, undervalued

995
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 3: player or yeah, undervalue player on the board. Sam Burns

996
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 3: is sixty three hundred on DraftKings and I'm like speechless

997
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 3: about it, and somehow the album agorithm forgot to carry

998
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 3: the two and make him eighty three hundred this week.

999
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 1: I don't know what happened.

1000
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 3: If you're worried that, hey, well Sam Burns doesn't have

1001
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 3: that much links experience, so maybe it won't be.

1002
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: That good for him.

1003
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 3: He played last week in Scottish Open and finished in

1004
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: eighteenth place.

1005
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,240
Speaker 1: I mean, the guy's game will travel.

1006
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: He is a top forty player in the world, and

1007
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 3: so at sixty three hundred, you can either have pome

1008
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 3: sex Sven, you can have Laird Shepherd, or you can

1009
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 3: have Sam Burns.

1010
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let's go with the guy who's led like

1011
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:32,240
Speaker 2: twelve rounds on the PGA Tour this season. Why not? Nice? Okay,

1012
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 2: well that's a great way to start us off. Got

1013
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: a ton of money left in the bank here, I'm

1014
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 2: gonna go with another guy I think is really undervalue.

1015
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 2: Nearly one last week, lost in the playoff to Minue

1016
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 2: League Matt Fitzpatrick. Is only seventy nine hundred. That is

1017
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: a you know, you can always find good, really good

1018
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: players at good prices in major championships because the field's

1019
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: so strong. But seventy nine hundred strikes me is way

1020
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 2: too low for Fitzpatrick on this type of golf course.

1021
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: I think we got to have him on the team,

1022
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: So let's add him in our second spot.

1023
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that play a lot.

1024
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 3: I can't pick Lee Westwood to win and not put

1025
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 3: Lee Westwood in the lineup. I think there's nice number

1026
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 3: seventy five hundred for DraftKings. I just think it could

1027
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 3: be one of those sort of magical rides for Westwood,

1028
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 3: and maybe it doesn't wind up in a victory, but

1029
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 3: I could certainly see him in the mix on Sunday afternoon.

1030
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 3: He certainly has all of the intangibles necessary to contend

1031
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 3: on this golf course.

1032
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: So I'm going Lee Westwood.

1033
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: What an incredible story that would be too. I know

1034
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 2: we've talked about it over the last you know, several months,

1035
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 2: as he's had this resurgence in his game. I don't

1036
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: love picking the most expensive guy on the board. Splurge.

1037
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 2: We've got the money, right, I mean, and this guy

1038
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 2: has been ridiculous the last several months. I think we

1039
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 2: got to have John Roddam on the team. I mean

1040
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 2: I think that look. I mentioned the stat earlier about

1041
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: how rare it is for players to win their first

1042
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 2: two majors in consecutive starts. It's only happened three times

1043
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: in the modern era. I just can't, I can't look

1044
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,360
Speaker 2: away from the guy in terms of what he's done

1045
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 2: over the last several months. I mean, if it wasn't

1046
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 2: for the positive COVID test to be rolling in here

1047
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 2: with a win, win, and a near win at the

1048
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 2: Scottish Open, So let's go with John rob.

1049
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm fine with that, and I'm fine with you

1050
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: spending the money for him.

1051
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 3: So you know what, Hm, I'm looking here at the lineup,

1052
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go I'm gonna go low and.

1053
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: Let you take a guy that you like.

1054
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm just basically gonna like, serve up the

1055
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 3: alley oop to you, and I'm gonna take a guy

1056
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 3: that you like too, and then give you another one

1057
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 3: that you like. I mean, this is basically a J

1058
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,399
Speaker 3: Ray lineup with a couple of my.

1059
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 1: Little uh I like details in here.

1060
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 3: Ryan Palmer, This, this guy played well last week, finished one

1061
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 3: shot out of a playoff.

1062
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: You liked him last week? Why not? Ryan Palmer?

1063
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 3: And some windy conditions, I could see him playing well

1064
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: this week. And that leaves you ten thousand. Is there

1065
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 3: anybody out there at ten thousand that you like?

1066
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 2: There? You go shout out Amarillo, Texas. There for Ryan Palmer.

1067
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 2: I mean you put it on a tea for me,

1068
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 2: a guy who is my favorite outright play of the week.

1069
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 2: He's gonna be my pick to win. Xander Schoffley is

1070
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 2: right there with ten thousand. This is a round out.

1071
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: Our team talked about how good he is on links

1072
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,719
Speaker 2: golf courses throughout his young career top ten finishes and

1073
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: more than half of his career major championship starts, which

1074
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 2: is ridiculous. My favorite numbers though about him on links

1075
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 2: courses is that he just basically does everything well. His

1076
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 2: plutting is great on links courses. He's got a great

1077
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 2: scrambling number. He has more greens and regulation in the

1078
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 2: field by about six to seven percent. Got to have

1079
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 2: him on the team, man. He left me the money,

1080
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 2: so I spent it. Let's go to Xander Shoffley.

1081
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 3: We always say that Major Championships, because of the soft pricing,

1082
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:37,320
Speaker 3: that every lineup looks good, Burns fits Westy, Rom Palmer, Xander,

1083
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 3: that looks good.

1084
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: That looks like a really good lineup, but they all

1085
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: look good on Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll see how it

1086
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: looks starting on Thursday. Can't wait for this thing to

1087
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: get other way.

1088
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 3: The one hundred and forty ninth Open Championship at Royal

1089
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: Saint George's.

1090
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: Remember to check golf Bet for all of our coverage.

1091
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: This week and every other week. For Justin Ray of

1092
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 3: the twenty first group. I'm Jason Soble from golf Bet.

1093
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 3: Thanks so much as always listening to our podcast. Good

1094
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 3: luck with all your players for this week's Open. Here's

1095
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:07,560
Speaker 3: hoping you hit the green.

1096
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 1: We're finished talking