Speaker 1: Welcome back to special coverage show of the New Hampshire
Speaker 1: Republican primary on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The race has
Speaker 1: been called Donald Trump as one.
Speaker 2: And just moments ago we heard from the runner up,
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley, conceding here in the Granite State.
Speaker 1: I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight.
Speaker 3: He earned it and I want to acknowledge that.
Speaker 1: And back with this now, our political panel, Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: partner at Stone Court Capital, is here alongside Genie Shanzano,
Speaker 1: political science professor at Iona University. Rick, what are we
Speaker 1: looking at the rest of the night here, because we
Speaker 1: do still have some questions to answer, as we said earlier,
Speaker 1: particularly when it comes to margin. We're just past what
Speaker 1: a third of the way here, Kaylee. As we look
Speaker 1: at the numbers of precincts reporting, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: votes still to come in.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean every indication is it may actually exceed
Speaker 4: the Secretary of Stage prediction of three hundred and twenty
Speaker 4: two thousand and voters. So healthy and robust day at
Speaker 4: the polls for New Hampshire voters.
Speaker 5: Well done.
Speaker 4: This is what we come to New Hampshire to do
Speaker 4: is see a real democracy in action, and I think
Speaker 4: that you're going to see more and more votes coming
Speaker 4: from the rural areas. Right now, it's inside a ten
Speaker 4: point range between Donald Trump and Nicky Haley, and I
Speaker 4: think all you're going to do is see more and
Speaker 4: more margin coming in from for Donald Trump voters. You know,
Speaker 4: these are his strongholds, rural voters. And one of the
Speaker 4: things we're seeing, which is a very stark contrast, which
Speaker 4: we've seen in Iowa, we've seen in the polling nationally,
Speaker 4: is Donald Trump is doing exceptionally well with voters who
Speaker 4: don't have a college education. But Nicky Haley has really
Speaker 4: racked up margins with voters who do have a college education. Dartmouth,
Speaker 4: that area around Hanover, she was leading Donald Trump eighty
Speaker 4: percent in a college down like that where it's very
Speaker 4: high education levels. That being said, there are more voters
Speaker 4: who don't have college education New Hampshire then otherwise.
Speaker 2: So on margins right now, thirty two percent of the
Speaker 2: vote count and according to the Associated Press, Trump fifty
Speaker 2: three point nine, Hailey forty five point one. So we're
Speaker 2: just under a nine point spread at this point. I
Speaker 2: feel like we should remind Genie our global audience that's
Speaker 2: watching that this is the second in a row that
Speaker 2: Trump has won. There's only been two contests he has won,
Speaker 2: both in Iowa. Though historically the person who wins does
Speaker 2: not end up the nominee. It's been that way in
Speaker 2: the last several competitive contests Ted Cruz, for example, one
Speaker 2: at in twenty sixteen, when Trump was the eventual nominee.
Speaker 2: That's not necessarily the case with New Hampshire. But is
Speaker 2: this going to be the year that Iowa and New
Speaker 2: Hampshire both picked the presidents? It wasn't just Iowa picking
Speaker 2: corn this time?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that could be. It seems like that's
Speaker 6: what we are looking at. And you know, this is
Speaker 6: once again I have to say Donald Trump breaking these
Speaker 6: established molds. I think he has changed this Republican Party.
Speaker 6: And let's you know, not forget he has changed the
Speaker 6: primary process as well. Here, if we sit in New Hampshire,
Speaker 6: you and Nikky Haley crossing this state end to end,
Speaker 6: back and forth campaign events and rallies and all these
Speaker 6: kinds of things. He was dropping in for one event
Speaker 6: a day in between court cases for his ninety one
Speaker 6: felony indictments. And yet he has led this thing and
Speaker 6: so I think it's incumbent on all of us to
Speaker 6: try to understand what it is that voters on the
Speaker 6: Republican side are seeing in Donald Trump that they find attractive.
Speaker 6: And I have to say give him credit. He ran
Speaker 6: a really smart campaign here. The two issues he focused
Speaker 6: on immigration security broadly, but immigration social security medicare, which
Speaker 6: we keep saying Joe Matthew was in his commercial on
Speaker 6: that and those two things he tried to move voters,
Speaker 6: and it seems like they were effective. And it's something
Speaker 6: to keep in mind. We talk a lot about Donald
Speaker 6: Trump saying things out of turn, talking about people calling
Speaker 6: them names. He was issue focused, at least on the air.
Speaker 1: Here for a TV audience, we're seeing a live view
Speaker 1: of votes being counted right now in New Hampshire, with
Speaker 1: quite a few to go here. Rick the psychology behind
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley's decision here. Knowing that she is trailing Donald
Speaker 1: Trump badly in her home state as she moves closer
Speaker 1: to South Carolina, could she be more likely to drop
Speaker 1: out to avoid embarrassment there or is she committed to
Speaker 1: that contest?
Speaker 5: You know, look, this is a gut check, right.
Speaker 4: She's been under attack by Donald Trump pretty significantly since
Speaker 4: the Iowa Caucus. She's withstood that pretty well. She did
Speaker 4: fall into a bit of a routine here of responding
Speaker 4: to all the attacks, which is exactly what you don't
Speaker 4: want to do when you're taking in that kind of assault.
Speaker 4: And the question she's going to have the gut check
Speaker 4: is do I want to go through four weeks of
Speaker 4: just intense barrage of attacks by the MAGA machine in
Speaker 4: South Carolina, a significant force of politics that can really
Speaker 4: hurt her image long term if she's not careful.
Speaker 5: And that's going to be really the core question.
Speaker 4: I don't think South Carolina is going to be determined
Speaker 4: by money. She'll have plenty of money to fuel South
Speaker 4: Carolina came for campaign for four weeks. The question is
Speaker 4: is she going to want to.
Speaker 2: Well, you talk about the attacks that she could be
Speaker 2: on the receiving end of. There also is the question
Speaker 2: of the attacks she could be dealing out. We saw
Speaker 2: in the very final days leading up to hear in
Speaker 2: New Hampshire sharpening of the knife, if you will, going
Speaker 2: after Trump for things as we heard her speaking this evening,
Speaker 2: things like senior moments when he confused her apparently with
Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi, thinking she may have been at the Capitol
Speaker 2: on January sixth when he was speaking a few days ago,
Speaker 2: she's called him chaotic. If she's going to do this
Speaker 2: over the course of the next four weeks, how much
Speaker 2: harder realistically should she go and will she?
Speaker 4: I know a lot of her advisors have been wanting
Speaker 4: to ramp up the attacks, just like you were talking about,
Speaker 4: not just on metal, competency and age. You know, that's
Speaker 4: been sort of the core, and that at the end
Speaker 4: of the day, she still says, yeah, but he's fit
Speaker 4: to be president, right at some point, I think you
Speaker 4: have to draw a brighter and stronger contrast. You have
Speaker 4: to say, you know, he and the electability issue has
Speaker 4: been one that I think she's starting to play even
Speaker 4: harder tonight. She said he can't beat Biden, and she's
Speaker 4: the only one who can. In fact, she said any
Speaker 4: other Republican could. But that means her. So I think
Speaker 4: that she's going to have to come out much more aggressively.
Speaker 4: There's no way a massive negative campaign against you is
Speaker 4: going to be successful for you unless you are able
Speaker 4: to mount a significant and very well scripted, targeted campaign
Speaker 4: against your opponent. And she didn't do it, and DeSantis
Speaker 4: didn't do it. And the only one who really tried
Speaker 4: that was Christy, But he didn't attack Donald Trump on
Speaker 4: the issues. He attracked Donald Trump on his personality. She's
Speaker 4: got a hone an issues attack and proved to voters
Speaker 4: in South Carolina that his form of government is not
Speaker 4: conservative and not good for the country.
Speaker 1: Well, Genie, the Biden campaign is already mobilizing here like
Speaker 1: it's over the statement from Joe Biden's campaign.
Speaker 5: One thing is clear.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is headed straight into a general election matchup
Speaker 1: where he will face the only person who have ever
Speaker 1: beaten him at the ballot box, Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: Is it right? Is this general election underway?
Speaker 6: You know? And this is one of the things we
Speaker 6: heard Nikki Haley say tonight that Republicans should be concerned
Speaker 6: that Democrats want to run against Donald Trump. And that
Speaker 6: is something we've known because the Biden the Biden team
Speaker 6: has said that, you know, and I think we're hard
Speaker 6: pressed to imagine that anybody besides Donald Trump, barring something
Speaker 6: we unexpected, is going to get this nomination. And you know,
Speaker 6: to put a finer point on it, let's just remember
Speaker 6: evangelicals in South Carolina, her home state, three out of
Speaker 6: four voters identify as evangelicals, only one out of four
Speaker 6: in New Hampshire. This is why this was the state
Speaker 6: for her to beat him. That said, she also tonight
Speaker 6: said I'm going to challenge him to a debate. Why
Speaker 6: is he scared to debate me? So if she stays
Speaker 6: in this thing, she's going to be taunting him about
Speaker 6: a debate. But if you're Donald Trump, can I have
Speaker 6: what incentive do you have to debate she's and who
Speaker 6: is she to ask? She's lost two now, so it's
Speaker 6: you know, if she stays in, I expect we'll hear that.
Speaker 6: But gosh, it's hard to imagine a way forward now.
Speaker 6: She really needed all New Hampshire delegates to pull this
Speaker 6: thing through to the end successfully well.
Speaker 2: And debates typically feature two things, one of them being
Speaker 2: attacks against the person you're debating, the other being actual
Speaker 2: in theory if it's working, substantive policy conversation. And earlier
Speaker 2: a few days ago, over the weekend, we talked to
Speaker 2: Governor Christan Nunu, of course endorsed Haley, actively campaigned for
Speaker 2: her here in New Hampshire. Didn't result in a win
Speaker 2: for her obviously, and I asked him, is the differentiator
Speaker 2: between Haley and Trump actually policy or you're what you
Speaker 2: think is the ability to execute on that, Paul, And
Speaker 2: he's said his execution not actually policy. Is that an
Speaker 2: issue here? You just aren't convincing voters that you would
Speaker 2: actually be that much different, that you have different ideas
Speaker 2: that you're talking about.
Speaker 6: You know, I think it's a mistake because you know,
Speaker 6: let's face it, voters look back at four years of
Speaker 6: Trump on the Republican side and they see successes there,
Speaker 6: you know, so I think it's very hard to convince
Speaker 6: them that the execution wasn't there. But there are policy differentials,
Speaker 6: and she started talking about them, and then she dropped
Speaker 6: back a bit, and I think that that has been
Speaker 6: a problem. You know, there are many many Republicans who
Speaker 6: you look at the amount of spending under the Trump administration,
Speaker 6: who find that objectionable. But she had to hit him hard,
Speaker 6: as did Ron DeSantis. Not having done that already, I'm
Speaker 6: not convinced she can make that case now as she
Speaker 6: moves into these much more difficult states.
Speaker 1: So how does she have to place in South Carolina
Speaker 1: as we wait to have a better understanding of this
Speaker 1: strong second or maybe not so strong.
Speaker 5: Does she have to win her home state? Is it
Speaker 5: as simple as that.
Speaker 4: Well, you can't win a nomination by coming in second,
Speaker 4: and that's really what it's something doing. And the political
Speaker 4: graveyards are stacked full of candidates who thought they could
Speaker 4: win by coming in second and they never did. I mean,
Speaker 4: this will be the first time that a candidate could
Speaker 4: have actually won the first three primaries and caucuses.
Speaker 5: And then you know, we've never turned.
Speaker 4: Back a nominee from that ever. And so as Genie
Speaker 4: likes to say, Donald Trump likes to break the mold,
Speaker 4: and she would have to really break a big mold
Speaker 4: to be successful this way. That being said, you know
Speaker 4: a lot of people are talking about this notion of
Speaker 4: hanging around the hoop long enough, keep racking up delegates
Speaker 4: and stay in the race and keep raising money and
Speaker 4: being the flying the ointment for Donald Trump, at which point,
Speaker 4: maybe he does get convicted of one of these crimes,
Speaker 4: maybe he has enough of these mental moments to convince
Speaker 4: even his own voters that he doesn't have a path
Speaker 4: to go forward to beat Joe Biden. And then she's
Speaker 4: there with the electability argument, and it sounds pretty good
Speaker 4: at that point, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Guess none of us can know for sure what's going
Speaker 2: to happen over the course of the five months between
Speaker 2: now and when the Republican Convention actually takes place in July.
Speaker 2: And of course Rick and Jennie will be here to
Speaker 2: walk us through the next several months, just like they
Speaker 2: are sticking with us for the remainder of this hour.
Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie will be back with us. But coming up,
Speaker 2: we're going to turn to foreign policy, something that Nikki
Speaker 2: Haley also has staked her candidacy on is her reputation
Speaker 2: in that arena. Will be joined by Elena Lyon of
Speaker 2: the University of New Hampshire. Coming up next, this is
Speaker 2: special coverage of the New Hampshire primary on Bloomberg Television
Speaker 2: and Radio.
Speaker 5: He doesn't believe in limited government.
Speaker 7: He believes in this kind of dictatorship.
Speaker 5: He doesn't believe in local control.
Speaker 7: He believes in Washington.
Speaker 5: So those are not Republican values.
Speaker 2: But you have said because he if he were to
Speaker 2: be the Republican nominee, because you are a Republican, you
Speaker 2: would support.
Speaker 5: That most people.
Speaker 7: That shouldn't surprise anybody.
Speaker 2: Even though he don't think he actually carries the values.
Speaker 3: Of the Republican Look Joe Biden. That's how bad Joe
Speaker 3: Biden is.
Speaker 2: That was part of our conversation with New Hampshire Governor
Speaker 2: Christian Nunu earlier this week in Manchester, as he was
Speaker 2: a surrogate for Nikki Haley, endorsed her campaigns heavily for
Speaker 2: her here in this Granite state, and yet that was
Speaker 2: not enough to actually lead to a victory for her
Speaker 2: here in New Hampshire. The race was called just over
Speaker 2: an hour ago for Donald Trump. Right now, thirty four
Speaker 2: percent of votes are counted, he has fifty three point
Speaker 2: four percent to Nikki Haley's forty five six percent. The
Speaker 2: question is the trajectory of Haley's candidacy going forward, and
Speaker 2: also how much this will become more about the issues
Speaker 2: at play here. We want to talk about foreign policy
Speaker 2: issues in particular.
Speaker 3: Now let's go to Ellina Lyon.
Speaker 2: She's political science professor at the University of New Hampshire
Speaker 2: and author of US Politics and the United Nation.
Speaker 3: She is joining us.
Speaker 2: Here live in our Manchester studios as we simulcast to
Speaker 2: you globally on both Bloomberg Television and radio. Professor Lyon,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining US this evening. We
Speaker 2: were just having a conversation with our colleagues Ric and
Speaker 2: Genie about issues domestically the border, social security, and medicare.
Speaker 3: At the retirement age.
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley is the former ambassador of the United Nations,
Speaker 2: and at a time where you have a conflict in
Speaker 2: the Middle East, you have a conflict ongoing in Ukraine,
Speaker 2: she has really tried to flex that at least to
Speaker 2: this point. Is it resonating with voters or do these
Speaker 2: issues just come too far below some of the other
Speaker 2: domestic problems that it's not enough to propel a candidacy
Speaker 2: like hers forward.
Speaker 7: Yeah, such a great question.
Speaker 8: So there's actually a recent a people out looking at
Speaker 8: exactly this and asked voters what are your top five issues?
Speaker 8: And foreign policy made the top five, not the top
Speaker 8: but the top five for I think it was forty
Speaker 8: six percent of Republicans, who was actually doubled that from
Speaker 8: prior and it's a little lower, like thirty seven percent
Speaker 8: or so for Democrats. So yes, I think that foreign
Speaker 8: policy is incredibly important. Maybe not the kitchen table issues
Speaker 8: that people tend to think of, but the news is
Speaker 8: full of a lot of instability in the Middle East,
Speaker 8: and you know, every time you open up your phone
Speaker 8: there's something about the Middle East. It whether it's it
Speaker 8: On or Israel or the Huthis or the situation in Ukraine.
Speaker 8: So I think people are paying attention and it seems
Speaker 8: so volatile, they're nervous.
Speaker 1: We have a global audience tonight. As Kayleie mentioned, what
Speaker 1: extent is the world watching this? Primary Joe Biden always
Speaker 1: tells the story about his first G seven when he
Speaker 1: said America is back and the reply was for how long?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 8: The rest of the world, whether or not it's v
Speaker 8: Putin or the Europeans or the Canadian Prime minister, everyone
Speaker 8: is watching, and the United States is relevant to We
Speaker 8: have boots on the ground or military presence in over
Speaker 8: one hundred and twenty five countries.
Speaker 7: We are a leader of what we call the international order.
Speaker 8: Right We were the architects of the United Nations, of NATO,
Speaker 8: of the IMF, of the World Bank, of the G seven.
Speaker 8: The United States has led for over seventy years and
Speaker 8: provided guidance to deal with many of these issues, and
Speaker 8: there's a lot of concern. During the Trump administration, there
Speaker 8: was a concerted pullback right. Trump was America first, not
Speaker 8: about dealing with global stability, and so there's a lot
Speaker 8: of people looking at the volatile issues around the world saying,
Speaker 8: is there someone that's going to come help us think
Speaker 8: this through and work these problems.
Speaker 2: Well, and you certainly got a taste of that at
Speaker 2: the World Economic Forum.
Speaker 3: In Davos last week were world.
Speaker 2: Leaders, specifically European ones, even a Central Bankery CB president
Speaker 2: Christine la guard were talking about how they've the risk
Speaker 2: of another Trump presidency, how Europe has has to think
Speaker 2: about that. You say that this is an issue that
Speaker 2: is resonating with voters, that they care about foreign policy issues,
Speaker 2: and the fact of the matter remains that, at least
Speaker 2: judging by the tally right now and looking back at Iowa,
Speaker 2: more than fifty percent of Republican voters support the former
Speaker 2: president who did have an isolationist bent, who did threaten
Speaker 2: potentially to leave NATO. Does that show that actually it's
Speaker 2: not just about him, but the American electorate is becoming
Speaker 2: more isolationist.
Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, and it's funny.
Speaker 8: Isolationism is a term that academics actually fight over. Are
Speaker 8: we isolationists? Do we really want to? And I think
Speaker 8: that many aren't quite sure one what isolation is and means,
Speaker 8: and whether or not it's even possible. Right, when we
Speaker 8: think about isolationism, we think about the early nineteen hundreds,
Speaker 8: right when you could actually close borders and you didn't
Speaker 8: have planes coming in. I mean, the our economy, the
Speaker 8: United States economy relies on our interactions with the world.
Speaker 8: Our health, as we learn from COVID, relies on our
Speaker 8: interactions with the world, world, our climate health, if you will,
Speaker 8: you know, if we're talking about climate change, United States.
Speaker 7: Can't do it alone. There's absolutely no so there.
Speaker 8: I think that the notion of isolationism is a really
Speaker 8: old old one, and I think that there's a lot
Speaker 8: of fear in the electorate, like we don't know what's
Speaker 8: going on out there, and the instinct is kind of
Speaker 8: retract right, and especially you know, there's war fatigue. The
Speaker 8: fatigue of Afghanistan and Iraq was real. Electorate really felt
Speaker 8: that we wrote a lot of checks and didn't get
Speaker 8: a lot back. But in terms of being isolationists, I
Speaker 8: don't even know if it's possible.
Speaker 7: It's great rhetoric.
Speaker 1: We're showing live pictures to our TV audience of an
Speaker 1: empty podium waiting for Donald Trump, and we'll have remarks
Speaker 1: from him when he does emerge here. Having had this
Speaker 1: race called very early on for Donald Trump here, the
Speaker 1: Associated Press waited one minute until after the polls closed
Speaker 1: to get this done. We had news today, Cayley, of
Speaker 1: an eighth strike and Athos strike against toothy rebels in Yemen.
Speaker 1: You mentioned this steady drip of frankly skill headlines that
Speaker 1: people are hearing and reading about in the news. To
Speaker 1: what extent will Joe Biden be judged as having a
Speaker 1: steady hand on the tailer versus what some people see
Speaker 1: as international chaos.
Speaker 7: Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 8: I think that you know, we're in the middle of
Speaker 8: a storm, a squall if you were using New Hampshire
Speaker 8: terms here at the global level, particularly in the release.
Speaker 8: There are seven to eight particular conflicts going on within
Speaker 8: the release. I mean, I'm trying to count them and
Speaker 8: map them out and explain them to my students.
Speaker 7: It is.
Speaker 8: It is very complicated, and you know they've got these
Speaker 8: little fires. It is a tinder box. If you have
Speaker 8: volatility in Washington, d C. A tweet or something to
Speaker 8: that particular effect could be you know, I had former
Speaker 8: students who worked at the State Department, and they said,
Speaker 8: you know, they'd wake up in the morning, they would
Speaker 8: have their marching orders, they would be preparing to do this,
Speaker 8: to work with this particular country and buship forward, and
Speaker 8: then all of a sudden, the tweet would change everything.
Speaker 7: And so that level of volatility is very concerning.
Speaker 2: Yea, And we certainly have seen the former president, though
Speaker 2: he's no longer on Twitter, posting on x this evening
Speaker 2: after his victory here in New Hampshire saying Nikki Haley
Speaker 2: is delusional that she gotten third in Iowa. As she
Speaker 2: was at her victory party talking about how she did
Speaker 2: concede this race but was going to move forward to
Speaker 2: her home state of South Carolina. She said New Hampshire
Speaker 2: was the first in the nation, it is not the
Speaker 2: last in the nation. She's going to carry this forward.
Speaker 2: And we are seeing pictures now for our TV audience
Speaker 2: of Donald Trump his party this evening as well. We
Speaker 2: expect Joe that we'll hear from him very shortly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's got the whole family with him, or at
Speaker 1: least a number of family on the stage with a
Speaker 1: long bank of American flags and the typical Trump set
Speaker 1: up a lot of phones in the air here, Kayley,
Speaker 1: as we wait to hear remarks from the former president,
Speaker 1: I'm curious which Trump we get. If it's retribution Trump
Speaker 1: or if it's come together unity Trump.
Speaker 5: We've seen both in the last week.
Speaker 2: Yes, we absolutely have after Iowa, very congratulatory tone, even
Speaker 2: for Ronda Santas Nicki Haley for the campaigns they were
Speaker 2: running their much more disciplined message. We'll wait to see
Speaker 2: how what kind of tone he strikes this evening, Professor Lyon,
Speaker 2: just one more question quickly, and I apologize that we'll
Speaker 2: have to interrupt you when the former president starts to speak.
Speaker 2: You were talking about your students and also explaining to
Speaker 2: them the issues of the Middle East. And we have
Speaker 2: seen that students, the younger population here in the United
Speaker 2: States has at least a group of them very particular
Speaker 2: feeling about what's happening right now in Gaza, the conflict
Speaker 2: between Israel and Hamas. How much is that dragging on
Speaker 2: the incumbent President Joe Biden his handling of that issue
Speaker 2: in particular, as we have seen tens of thousands of
Speaker 2: civilians killed.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's going to be a significant issue
Speaker 8: for whoever becomes president, and it's definitely something that Biden's
Speaker 8: had to tread very carefully.
Speaker 7: One, we have been unconditional.
Speaker 8: Allies of Israel for years and years, and how unconditional
Speaker 8: is that? But also being mindful of the fact that
Speaker 8: there are twenty two Arab states, and there is thee
Speaker 8: On and there is Turkey, and we are close to
Speaker 8: those countries as well.
Speaker 1: Joining us now Bloomberg's Peggy Collins and Mario Parker with
Speaker 1: us at the table now that we have a better
Speaker 1: sense of where we're going here. Mario, you covered Donald
Speaker 1: Trump in the White House and as a candidate, how difficult,
Speaker 1: how bruising is this going to be for the next
Speaker 1: four weeks if she decides to stay in this race.
Speaker 9: Well, Joe and Kayley, you all set it up perfectly.
Speaker 9: I mean, what you saw in that speech that he
Speaker 9: just gave was he was signaling it it's gonna be rough.
Speaker 9: Now he's about to probably start throwing some really really
Speaker 9: tough haymakers, especially as he goes towards South Carolina. Look,
Speaker 9: the former president is under legal troubles. He wants to
Speaker 9: make this a coronation more than a nomination. He needs
Speaker 9: these victories. He needed this New Hampshire victory. He needed Iowa.
Speaker 9: He's gonna need South Carolina. She's signaling that she's gonna
Speaker 9: stay in the race until South Carolina at least, so
Speaker 9: you're gonna see things get pretty ugly.
Speaker 2: Well in South Carolina is still four weeks away. That
Speaker 2: primary Peggy is on on February twenty fourth. We have
Speaker 2: a global audience joining us here on TV and radio tonight.
Speaker 2: Would anyone listening to us right now have any real
Speaker 2: reason to believe that Trump wasn't ultimately going to be
Speaker 2: the nominee, regardless of whether or not Nikki Hailey decides
Speaker 2: to continue competing in these contests or not. Right now,
Speaker 2: looking at the data, he pulled more than fifty percent
Speaker 2: of the vote here as he did in Iowa last week.
Speaker 10: Well, I think the momentum is clearly going his way.
Speaker 10: That's undeniable. But I think what people have said it
Speaker 10: round the Klee campaign, even in the days leading up
Speaker 10: to this, is that they wanted to show that they
Speaker 10: are doing better with each race. So they did do
Speaker 10: that tonight. They had a better showing than in Iowa.
Speaker 10: So the question is going to be in her home state.
Speaker 10: Can she perform even better than she did here in Iowa.
Speaker 10: So now we're getting into, as Mario said, kind of
Speaker 10: the zone of the fifty percent and whether or not
Speaker 10: she can show that she's going to be able to
Speaker 10: compete with Donald Trump before he gets that coronation and
Speaker 10: nomination slam dunk.
Speaker 1: In some ways, The question worth asking again, though, Mario,
Speaker 1: is how she can do it there if not here
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, knowing it's going to be a lot
Speaker 1: closer to Iowa politics in terms of demographics and values
Speaker 1: in South Carolina. I believe Genie mentioned one in four
Speaker 1: Republicans or evangelicals.
Speaker 5: That's Trump country again, is it not.
Speaker 9: That's a great point, Joe. I mean, you saw Nikki
Speaker 9: Haley's campaign. Also, you saw Americans for Prosperity other groups
Speaker 9: really go all in. In New Hampshire. This was her
Speaker 9: best shot right now, just given the composition of the electorate,
Speaker 9: highly educated, white collar suburbans, moderate voters as well undecided voters.
Speaker 9: And then you go to South Carolina, it looks a
Speaker 9: lot like Iowa. She's hoping that she has a little
Speaker 9: bit of home court advantage there, but again, this is
Speaker 9: a deeply red state in South Carolina, it is they.
Speaker 5: Also got a history of some pretty dirty.
Speaker 9: Tricks, that is true, absolutely, and then you've got Donald
Speaker 9: Trump down now he's had this infrastructure again. I think
Speaker 9: one of the things that we forget about in this
Speaker 9: election is the fact that Donald Trump is running for
Speaker 9: a third time. The muscle memory that you get the infrastructure,
Speaker 9: infrastructure that you have over that course as well able
Speaker 9: to kind of sow the ground in some of these
Speaker 9: key states.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 2: And that's what we've been hearing about his campaign this
Speaker 2: third time around, that it is much more organized, that
Speaker 2: they are much more disciplined, and perhaps we are seeing
Speaker 2: the reaped reward of that in New Hampshire this evening,
Speaker 2: we're talking about South Carolina in terms of the Republican primary, Peggy,
Speaker 2: but there will also be a Democratic Party in South
Speaker 2: Carolina officially, if we're talking about what counts in terms
Speaker 2: of delegates, it will be the first for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was not on the ballot here in the
Speaker 2: Granite State this evening, there was a write in campaign.
Speaker 2: It appears he won that by a pretty sizable margin.
Speaker 2: Dean Phillips, though a congressman from Minnesota, a Democrat got
Speaker 2: twenty percent of the vote.
Speaker 3: How should we be thinking about.
Speaker 2: What New Hampshire tells us about the incumbent president as
Speaker 2: he is the presumptive Democratic nominee at this point.
Speaker 10: I certainly think we saw in talking to voters and
Speaker 10: then tonight in some of the results, that there are
Speaker 10: a lot of people who are saying they're not seeing
Speaker 10: what they want to see coming out of the Biden
Speaker 10: administration and their campaign. We saw time and time again
Speaker 10: that people were telling us immigration and border security have
Speaker 10: become almost as big as, if not a bigger issue
Speaker 10: than how much people are seeing their pocketbooks get hurt
Speaker 10: by inflation, which was the big issue last year. So
Speaker 10: I certainly think that people are looking to the president
Speaker 10: and not only asking questions about age, but asking questions
Speaker 10: about policy, and so the Biden campaign is really going
Speaker 10: to have to answer those questions to voters heading into
Speaker 10: South Carolina.
Speaker 7: As you said, Haley.
Speaker 10: As you said, Cally, I'm sorry in terms of how
Speaker 10: they are going to solve some of these problems that
Speaker 10: Americans are saying, Hey, we see this as a problem,
Speaker 10: we want a solution for it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mario, you got a fascinating interview that you brought
Speaker 1: us at Bloomberg with Larry Hogan when he was still
Speaker 1: a national coach here of No Labels. These since left
Speaker 1: that group which got everyone thinking he might launch a
Speaker 1: run for the presidency. They have said, if it's Trump
Speaker 1: Biden by Super Tuesday, we're running a candidate, whether it's
Speaker 1: Larry Hogan or someone else, Will that happen.
Speaker 9: It looks like it, right, because that's what's happening. At
Speaker 9: least we're at least as of today, it looks like
Speaker 9: we're going forth towards this rematch of Biden and Trump,
Speaker 9: something that voters are polling shows that voters have no
Speaker 9: appetite for. So it does look like the No Label's
Speaker 9: movement will be moving forward, at least if they're going
Speaker 9: to keep their word in that regard.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Mario Parker, who leads our White House
Speaker 2: and National politics covered here at Bloomberg, as well as
Speaker 2: Peggy Collins, are Washington Bureau chief. Thank you both so
Speaker 2: much for joining us this evening, not from Washington, but
Speaker 2: from Manchester, New Hampshire, where Trump has been declared the
Speaker 2: victor of the first in the nation primary.