1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. All right, Barry Ridholtz joints 7 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: this year. Barry is a founder of Rodholts Wealth managed 8 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: maniage of Bloomberg opinion columnss and host of Masters of Business. 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: And he has a fascinating new column out which I 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: just read the ten most useless phrases in finance. That's 11 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 1: the good news. The bad news is I have been 12 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 1: guilty of uttering all ten of them. Barry Ridholts, Where 13 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: did you come up with this list? Because it hit 14 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: me right between the eyes, so I wrote. I wrote 15 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 1: a similar column a year ago, and I wanted to 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: come up with a different run of terrible phrases. And 17 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: I just keep on running tally of them. But to 18 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: see if I was wildly off base, I went to 19 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: Twitter and said, hey, what do your least face of 20 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: financial phrases? And I was shocked to get a thousand responses, um, 21 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 1: many of which I had already written down. We were 22 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 1: suggested by the uh the twitterati, and and it's pretty 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: clear that there are a lot of pet peeves amongst 24 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 1: financial types about phrases that they really really despise. People 25 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: are very enthusiastic about critiquing really dumb language. Yeah, but Barry, 26 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: it's very very important to not get complacent, as they say, 27 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: don't guess you tell me what's that means? So I'm 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: an investor, I have a portfolio. What does not get 29 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: complacent means? Should I move to cash? Should I not 30 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: move to cash? The phrase that you always hear is 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: actionable advice? What is actionable in that other than hey, 32 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: be on the lookout for something that might be dangerous. 33 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: But shouldn't investors always be on the lookout for things 34 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: that might be dangerous? That that that phrases, Hey, hey, 35 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: you know what, It's great in a in a college 36 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: graduation speech, but as an investment advice, it's kind of meaningless. 37 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: The easy money has been made. Boy, I've heard I've 38 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: uttered that many times. Yeah, that that's classic hindsight by it. 39 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,679 Speaker 1: If only I knew then what I knew now think 40 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: about how easy it is look. Investing is never easy. 41 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: It's always hard. It might look easy after the fact, 42 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: but you know, hey, go back to March O nine. 43 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: If only you bought with both fists, go back to March, 44 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: you should have been a buyer. Well, you say that today, 45 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: but when everybody was panicking in March, you know, it 46 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: was much harder to pull the trigger then than it 47 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 1: than it is now. With that, we're up sevent higher 48 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: since then. Barry, there's one that I have I'm not 49 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: a problem with. I mean, I'm fine with throwing it 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: out and never using it again. But it's already in 51 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 1: the price. Why is that such a PV phrase for people? 52 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, if you're talking about, say, I 53 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: don't know election uncertainty or a key man risk or 54 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 1: whatever it may be, what's wrong with saying, well, we 55 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 1: think it's already priced in, right, so we get to 56 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: uncertainty later, because that's another peeve. But you know the 57 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: problem with it's in the price is that, as Eugene 58 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: Fama has told us, yes, what is known is in 59 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: the price, and that is reflected by the buys and 60 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: cells of of traders. When you see a big move 61 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: in a stock or a market when the market is 62 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: up three percent or down three or like we saw 63 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: the other day when when Niccolo was down, what was that? 64 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: How do you say it's in the price? It's in 65 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: the price is accurate except when genuinely new information comes out, 66 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: and that big surge or that big sell off is 67 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: how the it gets into the price. So you have 68 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: to be careful. Everything that's known is more or less 69 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: in the price. What's not in the price are the 70 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: is the genuine new information, the genuine surprises. So, Barry, 71 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 1: if I look at cash in money market funds, in 72 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: uninvested cash and pension funds, isn't it a fair statement 73 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 1: to say cash is on the sidelines, and that's perhaps 74 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: a bullish call for stocks. So pull you buy it. 75 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,160 Speaker 1: You buy a thousand shares of Apple from from me 76 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 1: and across you you know whatever, whatever the toll. I 77 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: don't know where Apple is trading today, but you have 78 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: cash and you give it to me, and I have 79 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: the stock and I give it to you. So the 80 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: cash that was on your sideline is now on my sideline. 81 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: There is always and I'm choosing my words carefully here 82 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: trillions with the t trillions of dollars in cash in motion. 83 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: It takes either one or three days T plus one 84 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: or T plus three to a trade settlement. Uh, there's 85 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 1: money in in s m A s and separately managed 86 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: accounts in prime brokerages. There is cash all over the place. 87 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: There is always cash on the sidelines, and yet academia 88 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: has never convincingly demonstrated that you could show when there's 89 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: x amount of cash on the sidelines, markets do y 90 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: in the future. There's always cash on the sidelines. Every 91 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: trade has a buyer and seller, even with margin, even 92 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: with borrowed money, it's still cash changing hands. So when 93 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: is there not cash on the side? Yeah, that that's 94 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: actually quite a brilliant and incisive points. Barry, what were 95 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: the phrases that stuck out to you that were maybe 96 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: some people don't like them, but you still find a 97 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: lot of wisdom in them, because I know you've done 98 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: a lot of work as well on you know, cognitive 99 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 1: and behavioral types of investing. So so there's a handful 100 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: of things that I find really fascinating. One is everybody 101 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: wants to be a contrarian, which is kind of amazing 102 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: because by definition contrarians other people outside of the her, 103 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: outside of the crowd. But there's a certain romanticism to 104 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: being that person who who makes makes the big short bet, 105 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: who who, or who buys when everybody else is selling. 106 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: It's much harder to do than it appears. That That 107 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: always cracks me up. And then the simple truth, sort 108 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: of the flip side to that, The simple truth of 109 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: the trend is your friends. You know, crowds are mostly right. 110 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: Markets get it right most of the time. It's only 111 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: yet extremes. You know, go to March two thousand when 112 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: trees grow to the sky and and we're not buying 113 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: discounted cash flow but clicks and eyeballs. Hey, the crowd 114 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,679 Speaker 1: was totally wrong. They're just as the crowd was wrong 115 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: in in March of two thousand and nine with the 116 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: markets down fifty and people forecasting the end of the world. Hey, 117 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: at a certain point, um, the you know, the trend 118 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: is your friend, except for the bend at the end. 119 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: Traders have rhyming, rhyming aphorisms for every circumstance. You need 120 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: to write a picture of book Barry, I think, um, 121 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: I think I should get a five year old to 122 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 1: do it. They have the insight that very often we 123 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: in a crowd, Miss Barry, you don't miss much. I'll 124 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: get it that. Who's on Masters and Business next this 125 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: week is Pedro rp is the chief marketing officer for 126 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: a b in Bev. They are a giant beer company 127 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: with everybody from bud Wiser, Stella, Michaelobe Corona go down 128 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: a list of beers. They they are typically the largest 129 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: beer um producer and seller in every market. They're looking 130 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: forward to that. It should be an interesting conversation for 131 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: pandemic times. Barry Rittles, thank you, founder of Rittles Wealth Managements, 132 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist and of course host of Masters in Business. 133 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: What's time turned to the market once again and we're 134 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: seeing continue improvement really for the indusease after hitting that 135 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: low right after the open. The nastac is actually of 136 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: eight tenths of a percent now. But for a bigger 137 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: picture look at things, let's bring in Lisa Shallow, Chi's 138 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley. Lisa, 139 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: what do you make of these these moves? We're seeing 140 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: quite a bit of volatility even though the vix is 141 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: below thirty. But you know, we hit the bottom today 142 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: and now we're suddenly up more than half a percent 143 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: in the sp Uh. Yeah. So look, I I'm in 144 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: the campus says we are definitely, you know, still in 145 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: correction territory. I think we're getting a bounced today off 146 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: of the phenomenal housing data, uh, you know, which is 147 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: you know, clearly a high point um for the for 148 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 1: the VHA recovery and and for you know, the overall 149 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: economy and for the jobs market. But if you think about, 150 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: you know, why these markets are in correction, I really 151 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: think we've had uh kind of a triple play here 152 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: where we've had to simultaneous delay of the much anticipated 153 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 1: US fiscal stimulus, which now looks like it may not 154 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 1: happen until one and I think from the job snumbers 155 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: we saw this morning that could be problematic. Um, we 156 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 1: had disappointing FED guidance last week just in terms of 157 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: you know, the Fed not really providing um any additional 158 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: clarity on on their tools or their policy or metrics 159 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: around average inflation targeting. And last, but not least, we 160 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: just have these intensifying odds of a chaotic and contentious 161 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: US presidential election, and you put all that stuff together 162 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: and we're just going to have wider risk premiums in 163 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: the short term. So I'm not surprised that that we 164 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 1: kind of touched, you know, correction territory in the SP 165 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 1: five this morning. I think we may revisit this before. 166 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: So at least us over Yeah, so at least if 167 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: in fact, you know, we're not going to get fiscal stimulus. Um. 168 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: You know, the FED has done pretty much the majority 169 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 1: of what it can do to stimulate the economy. Does 170 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: that suggest from a portfolio perspective that I just kind 171 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 1: of focus my portfolio and what's worked, the proven tech 172 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: growth winners. I don't try to rotate into some more 173 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: cyclical names. I don't buy into that at all, because 174 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: what what what we're seeing in the marketplace is because 175 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 1: to your point, uh, FED guidance, UM, you know, didn't 176 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: really add to the debate. We're seeing, uh the treasury 177 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: market not really act as a diversifier anymore. UM. And 178 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: you know, while we've had markets down ten percent, we mean, 179 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: you know, treasuries trading in a super tight range on 180 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: yields of you know, ten to fifteen basis points. Maybe 181 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: we've got move volatility at all time lows UM. And 182 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: so uh, you know, if this is as low as 183 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: rates get, uh, the valuation on my tech trade is 184 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: vulnerable because so munch of my high pe s were 185 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: premised on ever lower and lower and lower rates than 186 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: we're not getting lower rates. We're not getting higher rates, 187 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: but we're not getting lower rates zero How much lower 188 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: can they go exactly? And so so you know, I'm 189 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: not convinced that this idea of just you know, go back, 190 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 1: hide out and what works, which is certainly today's trade, 191 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: I don't know that that's really got got legs. Our 192 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: advice to two clients in this environment is look in 193 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: the short term over the next two to three months, 194 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 1: in this this period of uncertainty, gold tips cash uh, 195 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: and then for for truly long term opportunistic buyers who 196 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: like to buy dips, we're looking at a quality cyclicals, 197 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 1: high yield credit. You know, some of the things that 198 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: have come off a little bit here, but we that 199 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: do our leverage to to a pro cyclical rotation at 200 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: some point. It's pretty interesting because gold is also also 201 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: about a hundred bucks in the a couple of weeks, 202 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: So I guess now would be the time to get 203 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: in if you're going to get in right at eighteen 204 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 1: fifty announce I I am, and and that's certainly what 205 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: we're recommending to our clients. Yes, what are your clients 206 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: most concerned about macro wise? Is it the election and 207 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: uncertainty that maybe might follow it. Uh, it is. Look, 208 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:26,319 Speaker 1: so you know, as as you know, portfolio strategists and 209 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 1: investment officers, we typically uh you know, always take these 210 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: these periods of time around a presidential election to remind, 211 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: you know, our clients are the facts, and to remind 212 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: them that that typically it's not presidential elections that that 213 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: determine things. It's policy. Uh, and policy tends to be 214 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: driven by the composition of Congress and things of that nature. 215 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: I at this time is different. And what's different is 216 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: this idea that somehow we're not going to have clarity 217 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: on those issues, um whatever, and maybe back for a 218 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 1: punt until December race that and some are saying, you know, 219 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,199 Speaker 1: if this gets contested by a Supreme Court that has 220 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: just recently you know been changed, uh you know, not 221 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: until January. So this is different. And so what we're 222 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: just saying is, look, we don't know what it means. 223 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 1: I know that this is a level of uncertainty. Uh, 224 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: that does wrought widened risk premiums in a very short term. 225 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: So this is very different than than what we typically say, 226 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: which is, hey, this this doesn't matter, try to look 227 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: through it. Lisa Salad, thank you so much for joining us. 228 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,079 Speaker 1: Lisa is chief investment officer the Wealth management group at 229 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley. They have about two and a half a 230 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 1: trillion dollars in assets on their management and we always 231 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: love chatting with Lisa to get her view of the 232 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: market here and uh, this time is different, Vannie. I 233 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 1: think as we think about some of this election uncertainty 234 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: that I think a lot of investors are starting to 235 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 1: really get concerned with. Yeah, I mean we love to 236 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: see the president doesn't help things by making comments on 237 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: on a daily basis, which you have to sift through 238 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: and decide, you know, do I take this headline seriously? 239 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: Do I take this headline seriously? And you know, if 240 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: you have a lot of cash at stake, you really 241 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: want to be parsing that pretty carefully. Yeah, exactly right. 242 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of folks are saying, let 243 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: me just get a little bit conservative here, gold tips 244 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: things like that as we head into the election, and 245 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: we'll recalibrate afterwards. Income inequality. Wealth inequality is an issue 246 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: that has been growing in stature for Americans are really 247 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: for many years now. Certainly the election became very important. 248 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: Ben Steverman Personal Finance, Edward Bloomberg News joins us here Ben, 249 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: really interesting story here Harvard talking about economic carnage in 250 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: the wealthiest zip codes. What did you find? So this 251 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: is about Ross Chetti, who as he's he's been one 252 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: of the driving forces behind the inequality converse issue comes. 253 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: What he does. He's an economist at Harvard. He has 254 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: a staff of about forty people. UM. Philanthropists have been 255 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: really um supporting him for years and um. He uses 256 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: these giant data sets of tax data and UM census 257 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: data that really track Americans um individually, over over over time. 258 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: And he studied inequality and race and and um uh. 259 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: He basically has diagnosed the American dream as dead because 260 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: Americans now aren't earning as much as their parents do 261 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: did or their great grandparents. UM and UM. So what 262 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: he's did when COVID hit was he kind of just 263 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: stopped everything and he built an economics tracker using private 264 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: data from companies like MasterCard into it that really shows 265 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,479 Speaker 1: day by day, week by week, state by state, neighborhood 266 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: by neighborhood. You can really see how the economy has 267 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: been playing out and and see what's happened with small 268 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: businesses and consumer spending and jobless things and all sorts 269 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 1: of metrics. Really shows the devastation that's happened since March. 270 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: You can see it by the way at track the 271 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: Recovery dot org and there's a button on their saying 272 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 1: explore the data, and you can literally go into the 273 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: smallest of neighborhoods and figure out who's been suffering the most. 274 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: And it turns out that his charge shows that by April, 275 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: the bottom quarter of way journers, so those making less 276 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: than twenty seven thou dollars a year, had lost more 277 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: than three times the number lost by the top quarter, 278 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: defined as those who are in more than sixty annually. 279 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: It's it's pretty phenomenal how it shows income inequality. What 280 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: will be done with this, Ben Well, it's a really 281 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: good question. I mean, as you mentioned that data, it 282 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: racially shows the recession is over, or at least it 283 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: ended in July for the top who are and a 284 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: lot of those people are just staying home and they're 285 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: not spending money, and that has sort of been a 286 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: It's clear from his data that that's been the driving 287 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: force of the problem. It's not the it's not the lockdowns, 288 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: it's not the shutdowns ordered by the government governors. It's 289 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: the fact that people who have means are not spending. 290 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: They don't feel it's safe to go out and spend 291 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 1: their money. And so what can be done. There's a 292 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: lot of small policies we could we could be doing, 293 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: and that's part of Chetty's work is to look at, 294 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: you know, what can we do for the education system 295 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: to help low income people, what can we do for 296 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: um housing. But but I think the thing about this 297 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: recession that's weird is that we're kind of well off 298 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: people are confronted with it because it's the people we 299 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: used to interact with on a day to day basis. 300 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: And I think he's hoping that that changes the conversation 301 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 1: about this stuff going forward, that we put more effort 302 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: into helping the bottom of the population advanced economically going forward, 303 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: and that could be a range of policies. So Ben 304 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: is the certain, however, that this pandemic and the economic 305 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: impacts could in fact not only widen the gap, but 306 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: make it perhaps even more permanent. Absolutely, I mean, I 307 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: think we've already seen the gap widen up until you know, 308 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 1: up until July UM that stimulus was really helping low 309 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: income workers and in fact, a lot of them were 310 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: making more than they had made before before they were 311 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,399 Speaker 1: working because of the unemployment benefits were so generous. But 312 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: now that that's expired, and now that we have these 313 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: major changes happening in the economy automation, more online shopping, 314 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: less in person services, um, there's a real concern that 315 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: first of all, this becomes a little bit more of 316 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: a normal recession and the the economic damage really starts 317 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: to spread to new sectors. And secondly that um, these 318 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,359 Speaker 1: a lot of these people could be left behind for 319 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 1: for a generation. Here we could have a real permanent 320 00:18:56,000 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: problem with some of these workers basically becoming outmounded. And 321 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: again you can see all of this data at track 322 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: the Recovery dot org. It is Raje Chetty's project at Harvard, 323 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: and of course he's got you know, funding from hedgehund 324 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: managers and so on as well, and it's in their 325 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 1: interests to figure this stuff out too, because you know, 326 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: there's a lot more concern over the social conditions of 327 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 1: this country and what might actually happen if it gets worse. Right, 328 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 1: So there's there's there's also, you know, an element to 329 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: the richest wanting to solve this in some way. I mean, 330 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 1: what does it say about the large inner cities in 331 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: the biggest cities. I'm talking about San Francisco for example, 332 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: and Manhattan. So this is the thing. So we've been 333 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: able to show he's able to show that there was 334 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: a there was a substantial recovery in in April and 335 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 1: May as businesses open back up. But if you look 336 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: at those wealthy neighborhoods where wealthy people weren't spending, businesses 337 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: were losing seventy of their revenue. And not only is 338 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: that devastating for those businesses in the short term, a 339 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: lot of those businesses have very high rents as well. 340 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 1: So that's that's that's why you see all these businesses. 341 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: If you look at the Upper east Side, if you 342 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 1: look at Midtown Manhattan, if you look at um wealthy 343 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: parts of San Francisco, those are the worst hit neighborhoods 344 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: in terms of the small businesses and the workers in 345 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,920 Speaker 1: those businesses are obviously coming in from other places. Um, 346 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: a lot of them are low income, and um, you 347 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: know now with unemployment expiring, they're really in a desperate situation. Alright. 348 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 1: I would urge everybody to try and find this story 349 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 1: by Ben Steuperman. It is called Harvard's Chetty h E. T. 350 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: T Y finds economic carnage and wealthiest zip codes. But 351 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: also do have a look at that data tracker, which 352 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,959 Speaker 1: is that track the recovery dot org. And also just 353 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: generally it's good to know about RAJ Chetty's project there 354 00:20:54,040 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: at Harvard University. Lots of volatility with futures, equity futures 355 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: very low. This morning we opened up a little bit 356 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: in the green and now we're giving it back here. 357 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: So we had it just a kind of a strange 358 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: morning here with volatility back and forth. Uh, you know, 359 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,719 Speaker 1: not much big movement, but again some plus some minus, 360 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: some greens, some reds. Gotta handle on what's going on 361 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,400 Speaker 1: in the markets. We welcome Sarah Conteck bloom Brick Cross 362 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 1: Asset Reporters. Sarah, thanks so much for joining us here. 363 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: Kind of a strange day in terms of economic data 364 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 1: as well. We had the jobs those claims came in 365 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: the weaker than expected, yet housing very very strong. Yet again, 366 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: what do you make of it? Right? This has kind 367 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: of been the story all along for COVID nineteen and 368 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: what it has caused in the economy. You look at 369 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: the labor market and sure, while we have seen immense 370 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: approvement from March, still very very downtrodden, and the pace 371 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 1: of the pickup from here, it seemed as though the 372 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: improvement in the labor market has topped out a bit. However, 373 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: the housing market has just been booming, and we saw 374 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: that once again this morning with the housing data. And 375 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: as your prior guests Lisa did say, we did see 376 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 1: the markets turn around the same time that the housing 377 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 1: data came out, but at the same time we also 378 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: saw it turn right as the SMP five hundred was 379 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: hitting its one day moving average, which is around thirty. 380 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 1: That's also just about the level that demarkets that ten 381 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 1: percent correction. So we do see some support levels swooping in, 382 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: but the benchmarks just turning from green to red to 383 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: green to red once again. Uh. Certainly of all tile morning, Yeah, 384 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 1: I feel like m Life team hardly has a chance 385 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 1: to get a piece out when they have to sort 386 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: of undo it because the last piece there it was 387 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: about the US stocks finding their footing in the early 388 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: going and recouping the loss. It really is pretty phenomenal. 389 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: I mean, our retail investors driving this market in any 390 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,879 Speaker 1: way anymore. Look the move these moves that we have 391 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: seen are very quick, and there have been uh some 392 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: signs that the retail market is still very, very heavily involved. 393 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: Sundale Capital Research they compiled data for the o c 394 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: C options data and they actually found that last week, 395 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 1: while we did see market selling off, many short term 396 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: small options traders actually increased their bets on a market increase. 397 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 1: So they're very much well involved. They're still pretty bullish 398 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: on these markets, which makes some think that maybe the 399 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: froth that was really built up in the month of 400 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: August has not been completely shaved off. And you also 401 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: just look at what's going on the likes of Snowflake, 402 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: for example, with its I p O. You had a 403 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: stock yesterday took her sp I that announced that they 404 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: were going to be an electrical vehicle company, and it 405 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: absolutely just surged. And those are really the hallmarks of 406 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 1: what retail traders do. If you look at some of 407 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 1: these online forums, you'll see them discussing this. So we 408 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 1: do still do see the footprints of retail very very 409 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 1: much in these markets. Sarah, interesting story on the Bloomberg 410 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 1: insiders selling stock at the fastest pace. Since I typically 411 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,120 Speaker 1: don't to see those types of stories, that doesn't suggest 412 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: a healthy upward bias in the market. It doesn't, and 413 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 1: especially coming from corporate insiders. When you think about what 414 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 1: is going to go forwards with a company with their profits, 415 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 1: with their revenues, what the economy is going to look 416 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 1: like going forwards, I mean, it's typically the insiders at 417 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: these companies that have the best sense of what's going 418 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: on at these companies. So when you see a sign 419 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 1: like this, The data actually also came from Sundale Capital 420 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: Research that corporate insiders are selling their own stock at 421 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: a very fast pace. I mean, that doesn't give you 422 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 1: a very encouraging tone on the markets when those who 423 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 1: lead these companies themselves are trying to get out and 424 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: meanwhile getting out in the middle of a sell off. 425 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: I mean, we've really seen a sell off this entire month, 426 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 1: and they haven't been buying the debt. I mean, in 427 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: some ways, it says more about the economy than their 428 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: own companies right, or than the market in general, because 429 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: they're obviously selling into the downturn in the market. But 430 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: perhaps it's because they've extended themselves or who knows, right, 431 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,360 Speaker 1: who knows how how executive shape their lives, let's put 432 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: it that way. So there, what what about the back 433 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: story today? That's also getting my attention this idea that 434 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 1: there isn't enough transparency for investors and SPACs with the 435 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 1: incentive process. I mean, investors and SPACs are they're they're 436 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,919 Speaker 1: pretty sophisticated. Now, uh, not necessarily you would think that 437 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 1: some are, but SPACs have also been a very big 438 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,239 Speaker 1: area for retail investors, and retail investors have really been 439 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 1: flocking to likes of SPACs. I remember it was a 440 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: couple of months ago when we actually had the spack 441 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: called Spack was one of the most popular stocks or 442 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,919 Speaker 1: SPACs on Robin Hood. Um. So, whether or not you 443 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,199 Speaker 1: want to call them sophisticated, maybe not, because when you 444 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: think about a SPACK, you don't necessarily know what it's 445 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,959 Speaker 1: going to look like in the next couple of years. 446 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: I mean, you're writing a blank check essentially, So there 447 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: could be some worries surrounding that, but I do want 448 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: to hide like this morning, the one thing that really 449 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: stands out to me, and something that's really been driving 450 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,479 Speaker 1: markets recently, is the real rates and inflation story and 451 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: that still holds today. For example, if you look at 452 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: ten year reel yields, we actually see them ticking a 453 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 1: little bit higher once again. We see inflation break even 454 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: coming off once again. And that wraps into this story 455 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,920 Speaker 1: of if fiscal stimulus isn't coming through, if we are 456 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 1: worried about COVID once again, you have an upcoming election, 457 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 1: what does that mean for growth? What does that mean 458 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: for election? And maybe these inflationary bets that investors had 459 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 1: placed just a month or two ago, maybe they went 460 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: too far with that. Sarah plans I thank you so 461 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 1: much for joining us. We appreciate that, Sara Pans a 462 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 1: cross asset reporter, giving us thoughts on what's going on 463 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: the market again, Vani, you know, wh when you look 464 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:43,159 Speaker 1: at the equity markets, it is has been a morning 465 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: of you know, not big moves per se, interpret percentages, 466 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: but just kind of back and forth between red and 467 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: green on the screen. I think the market is trying 468 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 1: to get a sense of you know, is it the 469 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 1: the economy? Where are we in economy? Does you take 470 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: a look at some of that data that came out 471 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,200 Speaker 1: this morning. Yeah, And interestingly, the VIX is now above thirty, 472 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,679 Speaker 1: so it seems like the big is reacting obviously to 473 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:06,639 Speaker 1: the volatility that investors are, you know, engaging in in 474 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 1: this market. It's going to be an interesting why this afternoon. 475 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: The dollar index as well is above ninety four. It's 476 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,159 Speaker 1: actually at ninety four and a half full, which is 477 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: you know, phenomenal turnaround from earlier on in the week 478 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: when we saw it below ninety three. So that's a 479 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: pretty huge move. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. 480 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 481 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. 482 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,399 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. 483 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 484 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.