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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcasts PODCA.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: It's right in the corner.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds of anis just goes show under the basket,

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Speaker 2: under the basket, it's the true for the wind God,

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Speaker 2: they go up, miracle.

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Speaker 3: I's wader hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Shut it off. It's codge basketball.

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Speaker 4: It's not the size on the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 4: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to your Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus podcast. This is the Monday college basketball betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stucky and joining me as they do each and

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Speaker 2: every Monday, BJ cutting a Mike Calbresy, both showing up

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Speaker 2: the work good day after the Super Bowl as the

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Speaker 2: professionals that they are. Mike, how's going.

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Speaker 4: Going pretty good?

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Speaker 5: I had a near big hit in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 5: at Odell first touched out of the game and then

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Speaker 5: rams finus three and a half. So of course that

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Speaker 5: came to pass within this extra point. But them's the

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Speaker 5: breaks betting football. So I'm gonna survive. I got funny

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Speaker 5: college basketball to suit to the wounds. There.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I had. I'm still upset that I had Stafford

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Speaker 2: under five and a half rushing yards, and the Bengals

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Speaker 2: don't use the time now in the Super Bowl, like

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Speaker 2: every single team in any football level, even you make

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Speaker 2: them to take one more knee, especially the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: you just never know. And of course they graded his

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Speaker 2: final need down his one yard not too And I

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Speaker 2: was also the victim of Mahomes having kneeling it three

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Speaker 2: times for negative fourteen yards to lose over twenty nine

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Speaker 2: and a half by a hook a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 2: So that was fun. But what happened sometimes, PJ, are

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Speaker 2: you pretty good?

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Speaker 3: Finally happy to have this, you know NFL over as

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Speaker 3: somebody who doesn't cover the NFL, it's very nice to

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Speaker 3: finally shine the attention now on college basketball.

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Speaker 1: It was a fun Super Bowl, you know.

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Speaker 3: Obviously I had the Bengals plus four, but would love

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Speaker 3: to see them win. And I'm looking online today it

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Speaker 3: looks like Aaron Donald was off sides on fourth and one,

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Speaker 3: So I'm sure that's going to be a middle knife

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Speaker 3: in the heart of Cincinnati fans. But yeah, looking forward

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Speaker 3: to a college basketball here, going forward to stretch, run

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Speaker 3: to march.

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Speaker 2: You put chile on spaghetti. Sometimes you create your own faith.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's we're gonna talk some spotsor circle for

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Speaker 2: today tomorrow. But first we'll talk your little rat and

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Speaker 2: let's talk about something important that you learned. Big takeaway

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Speaker 2: from the past week or so, Mike, I'll throw it

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Speaker 2: to you anything you want to throw out there.

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Speaker 5: So I really liked what two teams did on Saturday

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Speaker 5: when they weren't necessarily being carried by their longest and shooting,

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Speaker 5: and that was Arizona and Auburn.

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Speaker 4: I've kind of ragged on Auburn a.

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Speaker 5: Little bit in the last couple episodes that they nearly

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Speaker 5: lost by shooting their way out of games against the

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Speaker 5: Zoo and against Georgia, and they were able to hold

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Speaker 5: down the four you know, in the last few minutes.

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Speaker 5: But what I like about their performance, I think they

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Speaker 5: went like three for twenty five against am M and.

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Speaker 4: They booked them.

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Speaker 5: I mean, obviously Kessler with a triple double with the blocks,

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Speaker 5: but to me, it's just an indication that they don't

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Speaker 5: need all those shots to go down. And also Jabarist

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Speaker 5: not falling in love with the three the entire game

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Speaker 5: and kind of throwing them out of their offensive rhythm.

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Speaker 5: So that was that was a nice indicator for me

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Speaker 5: moving forward for Auburn and also Arizona. They found themselves

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Speaker 5: out of fourteen to a peski Washington team. I'm not

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Speaker 5: sure a lot of people have watched Washington play this year,

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Speaker 5: but the point guard is tremendous, and you.

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Speaker 4: Know they're they're able to give teams some problems. And

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Speaker 4: for them to fall down.

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Speaker 5: Fourteen and only make eight threes on the game and

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Speaker 5: win going away and scoring ninety two points to Bellas

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Speaker 5: was incredible in that game.

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Speaker 4: That was another good sign to me. I think Bollo

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Speaker 4: had ten off.

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Speaker 5: The bench, so their bigs were contributing in a way

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Speaker 5: that was necessary for them to win decisively.

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Speaker 4: So impressing those two top five teams.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, they're driving towards the number one seed, and I

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Speaker 5: want to see them be able to win when they're

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Speaker 5: not necessarily playing their A game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Can Auburn do it consistently away from home is

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Speaker 2: the question, because I think they're now twelve and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread at home this year and the one

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Speaker 2: the one loss is North Alabama, who finished on a

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Speaker 2: four to zero run in the final five minutes to

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Speaker 2: lose by twenty eight. When they were catching twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: I think David Treddi's at home, but yeah, all the

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Speaker 2: pieces are there, just can they do it consistently away

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Speaker 2: on the highway? Bjack, What do you got.

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Speaker 3: My big takeaway? I think everything kind of went according

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Speaker 3: to plan on Saturday. There wasn't too many big upsets

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Speaker 3: or things that was too shocked about. But the one

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Speaker 3: thing I took away is that Baylor is in trouble.

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Speaker 3: You know, losing to Chua is massive for them. He's

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Speaker 3: obviously their best rebounder, their best interior defender. Baylor was

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Speaker 3: second in the country after Saturday in you know, offensive

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Speaker 3: rebounding percentage. That's going to dramatically go down the around

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Speaker 3: the middle of the pack in the Big twelve in

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Speaker 3: defensive rebounding percentage, so that's obviously going to drop off.

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Speaker 3: And I think I've said it a few times, but

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Speaker 3: Baylor allows the fifth highest field goal percentage at the

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Speaker 3: room in the entire country. So losing to Chua is

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Speaker 3: just massive on so many levels for them, and I

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Speaker 3: I think it kind of ends their national title hopes

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Speaker 3: that they're not really the team I'm going to be

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Speaker 3: buying going forward. Maybe they might even you know, be

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Speaker 3: in trouble to lose the big twelve titles. So when

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Speaker 3: we get to tournament time and Baylor is you know, two,

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Speaker 3: maybe a three set or whatever.

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Speaker 1: Given the right matchup, I think they'll be a quick

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Speaker 1: exit for the defending champs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, why go at any thoughts on Baylor.

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Speaker 5: I agree, this was a team I was already selling on,

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Speaker 5: and to lose that centerpiece, I just don't see how

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Speaker 5: they're going to be able to move anything around from

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Speaker 5: a scheme perspective, and certainly not personnel.

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Speaker 4: So I'm totally with you.

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Speaker 2: And this is the time of.

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Speaker 5: Year when I do like to circle those first weekend

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Speaker 5: possible exit teams, and I think it's not going to

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Speaker 5: take an insane three point performance by a mid major

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Speaker 5: to get it done. As you mentioned, you know, you

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Speaker 5: can get insideing get score on these guys, So I'm

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Speaker 5: with you on that. I think I'll also bake that

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Speaker 5: into some of the plays that I have in the

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Speaker 5: Big Fault tournament.

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Speaker 4: Because there's going to be that that recency buas.

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Speaker 5: Them being the defending national champs, that the casual fans

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Speaker 5: going to come in and just try to advance them through.

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Speaker 5: You know, the first couple of rounds of thick twell,

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Speaker 5: but I don't see that being an easy proposition for them.

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Speaker 2: Michigan State is one of the things that I have

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Speaker 2: circled for that first, I think that they're terrible team.

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Speaker 2: It's one of those least talented teams. I think I

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Speaker 2: got to give credit to Memphis, who's now back. I

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Speaker 2: got to check out back of metric, but they're back

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Speaker 2: in the discussion. I assume on the bubble they're finally healthy.

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Speaker 2: Bates felt like he was kind of maybe cancers with

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Speaker 2: everyone else back. Huge win against a Houston team that

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Speaker 2: was coming off of a loss, and Colorado State winning

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Speaker 2: at Boise. I know Boise didn't have their full arsenal

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Speaker 2: weapons available, but I think that locks Colorado State into

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Speaker 2: the tournament, and they're a dangerous team. So I think

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Speaker 2: of those two teams won the weekend BJ any thoughts

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Speaker 2: out there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that that was a huge win by

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Speaker 1: Colorado State.

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Speaker 3: Obviously, the Mountain West is going to get a ton

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Speaker 3: of teams in, and a lot of these teams are

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Speaker 3: incredible defensive teams, so look out for that in the tournament,

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Speaker 3: especially teams that play these type of slow paces. But

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Speaker 3: I agree with a huge win. It's funny because I

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Speaker 3: think last Monday I was I said, look out for Houston.

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Speaker 3: I think they are still, you know, a national title contender,

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Speaker 3: and of course they dropped two straight games.

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Speaker 1: So you know, maybe take my little Baylor analysis with

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Speaker 1: the Grand Salt.

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Speaker 2: Start buying Baylor. Yeah, yeah, Houston, I think you know.

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Speaker 2: And now if you look a lot of their advents metrics,

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Speaker 2: they don't really look like a team that can potentially

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Speaker 2: win the national title. And I think just a lot

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Speaker 2: of their injuries are finally catching up with I kept

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Speaker 2: being shocked, like does it not matter? How does it

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Speaker 2: not matter that they've lost all these pieces and they

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Speaker 2: just keep dominating. But they were doing it against a

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Speaker 2: lot of you know, subpark competition. Maybe everything is catching

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Speaker 2: up to them. All right, before we get to some

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Speaker 2: spots circle tonight and tomorrow, rant something you want to

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Speaker 2: yell scream about.

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Speaker 4: All right, let it out.

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Speaker 2: This is your rant of the I'll start and I

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Speaker 2: could go Morehead State against Mary State, which is just brutal,

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Speaker 2: covering the entire game until the final seconds. You down two,

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Speaker 2: they miss a wide open layup, by the way, wide open,

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Speaker 2: I could have made it, and then you get you're

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Speaker 2: down two, you've got a foul, and just wait, just pull.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna go for the upset. Pull the three. You're

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Speaker 2: a dog, know the spread, you're dog catching three, you're

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Speaker 2: up two. Do whatever your other team does that When

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Speaker 2: I actually bet on them and need a bucket and

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Speaker 2: they just settle for a fifty footer contest that that's fine,

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Speaker 2: go for the win. Get selfish. If you're a three

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Speaker 2: point dog, you're covering there. You can be a hero.

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Speaker 2: But Georgia Tech was brutal because they get that there

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Speaker 2: down to with like three to go catch you nine

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Speaker 2: and a half, and I just I need to get

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Speaker 2: this out there. I don't know if there's any players

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Speaker 2: that listen to me. One time and I learned my

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Speaker 2: some in twenty twelve, I said, this guy guy on

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Speaker 2: Long Beach State, he's probably he's probably listening to this.

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Speaker 2: I said, he has the most punchable face. And we

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Speaker 2: still laugh about it today. He played on longgu Satan

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Speaker 2: was following me, and then like a couple of years

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Speaker 2: later when he was out of school, he like screenshot.

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Speaker 2: He's like, do you remember this? My friends? We still

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Speaker 2: laugh about this. Is so anyway, So maybe someone's listening

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Speaker 2: to a Virginia Tech. Excuse me, Georgia Tech against Virginia.

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Speaker 2: They're down eight with fourteen seconds to go. They miss

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Speaker 2: a shot again, some prayer three, and then they all

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Speaker 2: back off. Okay, cool, the game's over there, down eight.

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Speaker 2: You're down eight with twelve seconds ago, it's over. Someone

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Speaker 2: runs from off the screen to foul. Virginia obviously makes

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Speaker 2: both wins by ten. Georgia Tech really wanted the foul

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Speaker 2: so that they could take a bad mid range jumper

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Speaker 2: down ten at the bell. Just stop, just start with

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Speaker 2: the fouls. Stop with the foul nonsense. The game is over,

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Speaker 2: you're down eight. Can we take some signs on the

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Speaker 2: NBA it's under twenty seconds, it's an eight point game.

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Speaker 2: Good night, get out of there. What are you doing? So? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: those two suck because they were huge swings for me

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Speaker 2: on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: Mike Ucla.

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Speaker 5: I'm so frustrated with them because I put together my

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Speaker 5: card with Tande McGrath, the pick and roll piece that

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Speaker 5: was our last pick of the weekends. And then you

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Speaker 5: get the news that Mobley is out. And Evan mia Kawa, he's.

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Speaker 4: This guy who does like cistical analysis for sports on Twitter.

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Speaker 5: He's a really good follow He put together his list

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Speaker 5: statistically of the most indispensable players in the entire country

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Speaker 5: and for usc mobiley is I think fourth nationally.

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Speaker 2: How did you almost that almost lost a Pacific at

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Speaker 2: home that game before without him?

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Speaker 5: I cannot put it together. How UCLA left Peterson.

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Speaker 4: Just murder them all night?

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Speaker 5: Like you knew offensively they had no shot unless he

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Speaker 5: had a huge game, and beyond just making the shots,

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Speaker 5: denying the basketball, you can't let him take I think

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Speaker 5: you took like shots in the game.

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Speaker 4: It was ridiculous.

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Speaker 5: And then on top of it, you know, Hawke has

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Speaker 5: like just shot his way out of the game.

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Speaker 4: They even had a lead, I think it was like

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Speaker 4: forty five, forty three something like that halfway through the

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Speaker 4: second half, and then they just totally fall apart. Can't

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Speaker 4: get any buckets anyway.

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Speaker 5: This is a Ken pong team that's top twenty in

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Speaker 5: both offensive and defensive efficiency in a rivalry game, a

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Speaker 5: rival that's beat them I think five out of six

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Speaker 5: or five straight, like everything was there for them to

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Speaker 5: play inspired basketball. So I'm just incredibly frustrated with the Bruins.

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Speaker 5: But I don't really know how to go ahead and

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Speaker 5: slop them for the tournament, you know, once they get

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Speaker 5: to the big dance, because obviously they had the experience,

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Speaker 5: they have the skill.

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Speaker 4: They've been able to put it together.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 5: Mc cronin has has proven that he can coach. But

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Speaker 5: a performance like that is such a head scratcher for me.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how to evaluate it.

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Speaker 5: And as you mentioned, a USC team that we were

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Speaker 5: ready to say like, okay, this is more like an

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Speaker 5: eight or nine seed and not.

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Speaker 4: A top four seed. And now what do you do

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Speaker 4: with the Trojans. So there's a lot of confusion for

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Speaker 4: me out.

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Speaker 2: In the back twelve Boogie, yeah, boogie Ellis, but seven

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Speaker 2: didn't score in the game and US he still won. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was a it was a rough weekend for the

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Speaker 2: pack toot. And you've Washington State in the Oregon who

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Speaker 2: played tonight, both getting upset. So yeah, the Pac twelve

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Speaker 2: as confused as you are, and as confused as I've

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Speaker 2: been all year trying to figure out what exactly is

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Speaker 2: going on in that league. Be Jeff, anything you would.

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Speaker 3: Have run about, well, it was Morehead State and I

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Speaker 3: don't I don't know if you know this, but now

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Speaker 3: the two games that Morehead State is played against Murray State.

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Speaker 3: They've covered both, but have been covering for I believe

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Speaker 3: a total of twenty seconds the entire.

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Speaker 2: Time, dunk at the ends at the end right by Murray.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm gonna spin this a little differently. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to try to give some positivity to this segment.

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Speaker 3: I on Saturday, it's Valentine's Dad, I know it's Valentine's Day, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: So on Saturday, I think I had three of the

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Speaker 3: most miracle covers I've had all season long Indiana State

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Speaker 3: when are on eleven er run covered by one at

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Speaker 3: minus two and a half Providence and De Paul went

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Speaker 3: into overtime to hit the over Navy miss two free

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Speaker 3: throws at the end below.

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Speaker 1: Army to cover plus three and a half.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's just a good lesson that, you know,

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Speaker 3: every time throughout college basketball season, it always seems like

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Speaker 3: things are going against all of us. Obviously, it's why

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Speaker 3: we do the rant here every single Monday, because bad

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Speaker 3: beats always happened. But they can work the other way

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Speaker 3: as well. Regression moves the other way and you can

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Speaker 3: actually get some that luck bag going forward. So maybe

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Speaker 3: there's some of my you know, Midwestern optimism coming out here.

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Speaker 1: But stay positive to everybody out there.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna turn if you're having a bad run or

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Speaker 3: if the things are if the luck is bouncing your way,

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Speaker 3: it always tends to even out. So and the power

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Speaker 3: of positive thinking is a great thing to everybody out there.

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Speaker 3: If you believe the good things are gonna happen, they

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Speaker 3: usually do. So on this Valentine's Day, I guess I'll

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Speaker 3: add a little positivity that, hey, luck can happen for

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Speaker 3: you as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't had one of those in a month,

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Speaker 2: but then you forget about it, and then but you

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Speaker 2: take they're normal. But uh yeah, I'll try out this

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Speaker 2: power positive. I was positive that Morehead State was going

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Speaker 2: to make the light up and layup, but maybe I should.

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Speaker 1: Have We shoot it at the buzzer. That's that's just

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Speaker 1: just shoot at the well.

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Speaker 2: Get the offensive rebound and missed again. Just uh all right,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, power positive thinking, spread love. Its Valentine's Day.

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Speaker 2: Let's move on to some more actionable stuff for today

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Speaker 2: and tomorrow. Let's talk. It's not the greatest slate tonight,

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Speaker 2: but there's games to bet on.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like your case on the Mondays.

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Speaker 4: The weekends over, Let's break down Big Monday.

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Speaker 2: What do you have circled? Anything you want to point out?

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Speaker 2: I'll start with you, Mike.

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Speaker 5: So, I think this is an crack game for Davidson.

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Speaker 5: They're playing against a Ducaine team that's Ducaine. I was

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Speaker 5: actually pretty high on last year. They had some nice

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Speaker 5: defensive pieces and due to graduation, they've just.

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Speaker 4: Fallen off a cliff. And this is a Davidson team

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Speaker 4: that for a while was one of the top five post.

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Speaker 5: To number one shooting efficiency team in the entire country,

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Speaker 5: and they've just been in a real funk, you know.

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Speaker 5: The last five or six games. They've had some near

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Speaker 5: misses where they nearly lost to Fordham and George Washington,

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Speaker 5: and they haven't shot over thirty five for three point

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Speaker 5: range except for one outing. I think in the last

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Speaker 5: six or seven. This is a team that you just

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Speaker 5: can't hold down long term in my opinion. So I

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Speaker 5: think this is an opportunity to grab a Davidson team

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Speaker 5: at home that's hungry to win, maybe twenty plus points.

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Speaker 5: I see them winning going away. In this one June

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Speaker 5: League came off a game on Saturday against Rhode Island,

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Speaker 5: he went over five for three. I see this as

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Speaker 5: a bounced backspot, so I'm all over the wildcuts, Jack,

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Speaker 5: What do.

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Speaker 2: You got circle for to direct?

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay in the A ten.

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Speaker 3: I like Rhode Island at home plus two against Dayton

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Speaker 3: A pretty good spot here for Rhode Island. Finally ended

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Speaker 3: their losing streak beating Davidson at home this weekend. Another

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Speaker 3: fantastic matchup for them, especially defensively. Dayton loves to get

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Speaker 3: out in transition. In fact that the number one team

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Speaker 3: in the A ten points per possession and transition offense,

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Speaker 3: but Rhode Island number one team in the conference in

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Speaker 3: transition defense. Dayton doesn't shoot a lot of threes, but

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Speaker 3: they are hitting over forty percent in conference play.

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Speaker 1: That is obviously not sustainable.

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Speaker 3: And now they're facing the second best three point defense

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Speaker 3: in the A ten, as Rhode Island is only allowing

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Speaker 3: around thirty.

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Speaker 1: One percent in league play.

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Speaker 3: This is a revenge spot for Rhode Island, who lost

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Speaker 3: by two at Dayton despite holding Dayton only thirty three

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Speaker 3: percent from inside the arc, which is no surprise because

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Speaker 3: Rhode Island is thirteenth in the country in two point

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Speaker 3: fifty one percentage allowed.

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Speaker 1: Dayton also turning the ball over one.

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Speaker 3: Of the highest rates in the conference, while Rhode Island

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Speaker 3: is second internal percentage on defense. So a really good

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Speaker 3: spot here for Rhode Island to you get back to

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Speaker 3: back wins Dayton obviously coming off you know, back to

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Speaker 3: back road games.

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Speaker 1: So Rhode Island plus two at home.

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Speaker 5: Interesting too, just to hop in Gus researching them for

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Speaker 5: their piece against Davidson on Saturday. Some incredible melts in

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Speaker 5: the last month where if they even scored two or

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Speaker 5: three buckets instead of going on five and eight minutes

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Speaker 5: swirrel at the streaks, they're probably getting one or two

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Speaker 5: more wins. So I think it is a team that

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Speaker 5: it's a good spot to buy low on them, is

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Speaker 5: that they're able to put it together as they did

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Speaker 5: on Saturday. I think they offer a lot, you know,

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Speaker 5: from a value perspective.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, one of the problems is free throw shooting, which

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Speaker 2: might contribute to some of those melts. But yeah, this

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Speaker 2: Dayton's really relied on getting to the rim for their offense,

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Speaker 2: and you can't really do that against Rhighte Islands an

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Speaker 2: incredible interior defense, and but Rhode Island might have some

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Speaker 2: trouble scored. This could just be an a squeet.

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Speaker 1: What was the first score? We had to be three

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Speaker 1: to fifty one.

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Speaker 3: Rhode Island only made two threes, I believe, and shot

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Speaker 3: nine tree throws, So who knows.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully they this one could be ugly. Say with Virginia

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Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, I swear whenever Virginia and Virginia Tech player,

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Speaker 2: the game is like forty eight to forty five final,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go. I think that there's this might be

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Speaker 2: a good chance to well, here's here's I'll give you two.

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Speaker 2: Craighton Georgetown. It's one of these situations maybe and maybe

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Speaker 2: you go Georgetown first half, they seem to be melting,

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Speaker 2: completely melting down. In the second half they go, but

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Speaker 2: it just looked like they run out of gas. Maybe

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Speaker 2: you go Georgetown first half, but it's one of these

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Speaker 2: spots where you know they were just catching four at

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Speaker 2: home and now you know it's eleven on the road.

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Speaker 2: But it's the same travel you just played them. Both

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Speaker 2: teams are going from Georgetown to Creyton. So I think

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Speaker 2: in these these rare they only really happened because of

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Speaker 2: COVID and rescheduling over the past two seasons. But I

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Speaker 2: think a lot of times home court gets over valued

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Speaker 2: because it's the same spot for both teams. It's not

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Speaker 2: like I think there's gonna be an incredible Creighton crowd

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Speaker 2: for a bad Georgetown team. So Creyton just made every shot.

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Speaker 2: They made every three, and they haven't been making frees

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Speaker 2: at all this year. I think Georgetown has some value.

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Speaker 2: Maybe you go first half. Oklahoma State's also intriguing. I

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Speaker 2: think this line is a little high against Kansas, and

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Speaker 2: because you look at Oklahoma State, they're an interesting handicap

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Speaker 2: because they can't go to the postseason, so you know

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Speaker 2: they have out of talent. They need to get to

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Speaker 2: the rim, and I think you can you can do

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Speaker 2: that against I think he is pretty a little soft

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Speaker 2: at the rim. And this is like their super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: right you play you play Kansas at at Allen Fieldhouse.

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Speaker 2: You can't go to the postseasons like this is. These

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Speaker 2: are the games that they're going to really get up for.

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Speaker 2: These are basically like tournament games for them. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's a lift lines a little inflated, So I

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Speaker 2: might look at the pokes as well. All right, let's

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Speaker 2: move on and if you want to add anything else

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Speaker 2: protect guard. Feel free to do so, but let's move

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Speaker 2: on to tomorrow. Anything that you have circled there mine, Well,

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Speaker 2: I mean.

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Speaker 4: We can't just blow past a little swaction, right it's

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Speaker 4: Monday night Swaction Slaction.

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Speaker 2: Can we get serious? Oh yeah, we yeah, you're gonna

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Speaker 2: be You're gonna be streaming it on Facebook. I got

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Speaker 2: to get in. You got to send me that link.

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Speaker 2: How many were how many work how many were streaming it?

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Speaker 2: Last week?

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Speaker 4: We were up to like one thirty seven. It was

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Speaker 4: a regular block party in there. And then they end

437
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Speaker 4: up winning the game at the Buzzer and it was

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Speaker 4: it was fun. I had a good time. I end

439
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 4: up losing by the hook. That wasn't so enjoyable.

440
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 5: But I'm going to go ahead here and play against

441
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 5: an Alcourn State team that's burned me many times this year.

442
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 4: I can't, for the life of me figure out why

443
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 4: they're a five, five.

444
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,360
Speaker 5: And a half point favorite at home against the Florida

445
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 5: A and M team that's, you know, first.

446
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:17,679
Speaker 4: In the Swack East.

447
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 2: MJ.

448
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 5: Randolph has been basically the players of the year in

449
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 5: the conference. So I know what I'm getting offensively, But

450
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 5: just this quick tivot albourn State. The last six games,

451
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 5: they've been favored their own six against the spread.

452
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 4: So I'm not going to go against that trend. I'll

453
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 4: go ahead and gobble the points here.

454
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 5: I may even sprinkle on the money line, you know,

455
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 5: really make for a lively Facebook live watch party?

456
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: Are the comments active? The chat and lively the.

457
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 5: Chat section is not only active, but it's like people

458
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 5: that are at the game, they're like, where'd you get

459
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 5: that stadium cheese for the nachos? And they're like, oh, you

460
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 5: got to go to Gate three, Like it's that far

461
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 5: in the weeds. So if you're looking for some real

462
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 5: inside action on these you know, convention centers that they're

463
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 5: playing in, then go ahead and log on, or you

464
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,239
Speaker 5: may have to create a Facebook account. I think it's

465
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 5: the only reason I am not to leading my Facebook

466
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,399
Speaker 5: account because I don't want to depride myself with this.

467
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 2: I have to reactivate mine, I think reactivators. But uh yeah,

468
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: that's incredible, But uh bja, I assume that you're are

469
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 2: you gonna tell us? Because you were right on this?

470
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 2: And I think they just keep covering and losing by

471
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: single digits. They're one and twenty one but your Delta Devils.

472
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: I believe they're catching double digits again. Mississippi Valley State.

473
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 2: Are you recommending your boys?

474
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 3: I am not tonight because I don't know if people

475
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 3: know this, but they've played a four overtime game against

476
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 3: Alabama and m on Saturday, so I will be staying

477
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: away for them for that fact. But the best game

478
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 3: in the swack tonight Southern versus Texas Southern. Two best teams.

479
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 3: I like Texas Southern minus two and a half at home.

480
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 3: Is Southern is allowing the highest free throw rate in

481
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 3: the country. It's around fifty percent, which is insane. Texas

482
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 3: Southern gets the free throw line about them around one

483
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 3: hundredth in the country. In that fact, Also, Texas Southern

484
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: doesn't take a high percentage three point shots. There are

485
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,440
Speaker 3: a lot a lot of their shots come at the rim.

486
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 3: Southern is three hundred and forty ninth in the country

487
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 3: in two point field weeal percent and is allowing around

488
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 3: sixty eight percent on shot attempts at the rim. So

489
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 3: I think it is a great matchup for the Texas

490
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 3: Southern offense, especially at home in a pretty big game

491
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: for the you know, to be the King of the Swack,

492
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,680
Speaker 3: so I like Texas Southern Tonight, Swaction.

493
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 2: Met your swatching report. Thank you for the reminder, Mike,

494
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 2: and now we can move on to Tuesday that we've

495
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 2: satisfied all of your swatch needs and desires. What do

496
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: you got circle?

497
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,199
Speaker 5: So just looking through, you know, the sleep, I just

498
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 5: wish that Nova was healthier because Providence, I'm just waiting

499
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 5: for my spot to hop in and fad the friars

500
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 5: and we've banged the.

501
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 4: Drum, you know, endlessly, their first.

502
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 2: And nine and nine oh games to buy five or less.

503
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 2: Got another one on Saturday.

504
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 5: But I just don't necessarily see this as actually being

505
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 5: the spot, the one I'm interested on the number, and

506
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 5: you brought them up earlier. This can State travel in

507
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 5: the Happy Valley? I think that could be a trap

508
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 5: for them. Penn State certainly has been. It has been

509
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 5: difficult to play at home this year, and Jalen Pickett

510
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 5: and some of the pieces that they brought in, you know.

511
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 4: How how are they going to mesh together? How is

512
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 4: it going to work? I think I've seen enough that

513
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 4: if I can.

514
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 5: Get plus money on this, I'm probably gonna go ahead

515
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 5: and take them Minellions. I'm hoping maybe it's in the

516
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 5: plus one fifty range something like that, maybe close to

517
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 5: two to one.

518
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 4: If it's there, I'm going to pull the trigger for

519
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 4: a Michigan State team. That just doesn't impress me. There's

520
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 4: nothing necessarily that scares me from an offensive perspective about

521
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 4: the sport. So that's just the game that's front of

522
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 4: mine for me.

523
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree there. I also think it might be

524
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 2: you know, I hate that Indiana. I hate the Wisconsin

525
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: lost at home to Rutgers, but I think it might

526
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 2: be a good spot to buy Indiana. I think Wisconsin

527
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 2: in general is pretty overrated and the only thing that

528
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: I've really had circled, I mean, Ken Wyoming this up,

529
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 2: I don't know, but there. Now you're going to New Mexico.

530
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: Is this the time to fade them? Potentially? Kentucky Tennessee

531
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: should be an incredible game. Tennessee has revenge of their

532
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 2: minds from losing by sixty five thousand points the first

533
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: time they met, so that should be a good one

534
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: in a hostile environment. But yeah, the only other one

535
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 2: that I had circled was Cincinnati. You want to Memphis

536
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 2: on the road after beating Houston, It's still a team

537
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 2: that I think is violatile, and I think you're going

538
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 2: to get value with Cincinnati coming off of a loss

539
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: at Tulsa, where I think that was more indicative of

540
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 2: their zone offense. It's just a terrible matchup for Cincinnati here.

541
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 2: I think they can have a little more success. Big

542
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: letdown spot for Memphis. I think since he might be

543
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 2: worth a book as well. BJ, what do you have circle?

544
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: Well, I have Ohio State Circle, but I did find

545
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:55,479
Speaker 1: it funny.

546
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: On Saturday, friend of the program Jordan Majiuweski tweeted, I

547
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: believe that what Providence is doing right now is paganistic

548
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 3: at this point, which I totally agree with.

549
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: So I obviously had that circle.

550
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 3: But you know again, the dunk the dunk is is

551
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 3: crazy right now, those crowds, So I'll I'll.

552
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 2: Give them credit. They are good in these close games

553
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: because you will coach their veteran team and most veteran

554
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: teams in the country, and they can make free throws.

555
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 2: They give free throw shooters in the back court, so

556
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: they can win these really close games.

557
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: But come on, yeah, in the market, in the market's

558
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 3: not really overreacting to like their luck. Like the market

559
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 3: is kind of caught up with the Providence. So if

560
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 3: you look at like the Saint John's game, they closed

561
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 3: I believe it minus three and a half, you know,

562
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 3: only nine against the Paul.

563
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: I'm assuming that Villaina was probably gonna be minus two

564
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: and a half fins.

565
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: Sure, I short had a DePaul team too.

566
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, So it's the market is caught up to the Providence,

567
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: and it's they're you know, obviously.

568
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: Ligning them accordingly.

569
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna go Ohio State, I think in a

570
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 3: nice blowout spot against Minnesota on Tuesday. The Buckets are

571
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 3: very quietly moving up in the conversation as one of

572
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 3: the best teams and the Big Ten obviously got a

573
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 3: great win against against the rival Michigan on Saturday, and

574
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 3: this is another perfect spot against a really.

575
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 1: Poor Minnesota team.

576
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 3: So Ohio State offensively is top thirty in both two

577
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 3: point and three point field well percentage. Well, Minnesota is

578
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 3: in the bottom two of the Big Ten in both

579
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 3: those categories. Defensively, Minnesota is also three hundred and forty

580
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 3: ninth in points per possessional out and post upsets. Well,

581
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 3: that's Ohio State's second most used set and their top

582
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 3: ten percent in college basketball in points per possession. The

583
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: Gophers are also really bad in the half court, bottom

584
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 3: fifteen percent of college basketball, while Ohio State plays a

585
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: slow tempo with most of their offense coming in the

586
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 3: half court, and they're eighteenth nationally in points per possession there,

587
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 3: Minnesota is offensively is just incredibly inefficient per shot quality.

588
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: They're three hundred and thirty first nationally in rim and

589
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 3: three point rate, which are obviously the two most valuable

590
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 3: shots and half court offense. They're also dead last in

591
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: free throw rate and second to last in offensive rebounding

592
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 3: percentage in the Big Ten, so they are truly relying

593
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: on mid range jumpers for the most of their offense.

594
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: So ken Pom has Ohio State minus eleven. I obviously

595
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 3: would love it at that, but I'll play the buck

596
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 3: guys probably up to minus thirteen.

597
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny you mentioned it. Go back to your

598
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: providence point. Like just sports betting in general, Like i'n't

599
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 2: been in college basketball for coming up on twenty years,

600
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: almost daily, and it is and this is across all sports.

601
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 2: How the market markets get more efficient over time, but

602
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 2: it is exponentially more difficult than I was fifteen years ago.

603
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: And you have a lot of it is because you

604
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: have sites like you know, shot Quality pen Pom. You

605
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 2: have just a lot more market awareness of these teams

606
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 2: that are lucky. Like ten to twelve years ago, this

607
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: Providence team which is in first place in the Big East,

608
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: you know, against the Paul it would have been minus

609
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half for example the other night. Like

610
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: now it's like, all right, people know that this team

611
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: is getting lucky. And you have these teams that everyone

612
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 2: is aware of, and the market is a lot sharper,

613
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 2: especially on the open than it was ten fifteen years ago.

614
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: Just an example of how market's overtime and every aspect,

615
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 2: not just college basketball. Get up a Fision overtime. But yeah,

616
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 2: it's like you're getting crazy inflated lines with Providence, but

617
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 2: this is their luck. Is it's gonna flip the other

618
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 2: way you would assume eventually. All right, that'll do it

619
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 2: for us. A little half hour Valentine's Day episode to

620
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 2: help you get through your Monday and post Super Bowl hangovers,

621
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 2: help you try to find some winners on today and

622
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: Tomorrow's Guard. Thank you for listening, as it always, Thanks

623
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 2: to DJ and Mike for joining me. Make sure you

624
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 2: check us out. On Wednesday, the guys from the Three

625
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 2: Man leave, we'll have their mid week episode. DJA myself

626
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 2: will be back on Friday with the weekend vetting preview,

627
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus. Whoever you find your podcast, make

628
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: sure you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe, Tell a friend, don't enemy.

629
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: Leave a review five star review. We'll give up a

630
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: year later this week. Those really help us out. Thanks

631
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 2: for tuning in. We'll catch allad Here's