1 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Alex Steinhl and Paul Sweeny. 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 2: The real ap performance has been the US corporate high yield. 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 3: Are the companies lean enough? Have they trimmed all the fats? 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 2: The semiconductor business is a really cyclical business. 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 4: Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe. 6 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 3: Do investors like the M and A that we've seen? 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 2: These are two big time blue chip companies. 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 3: The window between the peak and cut changing super fast. 9 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence with Alex Steinhl and Paulsweenye on Bloomberg Radio. 10 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 2: On Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big 11 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: business stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets. 12 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 3: Each and every week, we're going to provide in depth 13 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 3: research and data on some of the two thousand companies 14 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 3: and one hundred and thirty industries are analysts cover worldwide. 15 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 2: Today we'll talk Tesla and how the company remains the 16 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: Wilson was a valuable automaker. 17 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: Plus our conversation with Rockwell Automation CEO Blake Morritt. But first, 18 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: another week of earnings and another dismal forecast, this time 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 3: from the likes of US, the company posting disappointing fourth 20 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 3: quarter earnings and providing twenty twenty four guidance that missed 21 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 3: the mark. 22 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: For more in this co host John Tucker and I 23 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: spoke with Bloomberg Intelligence senior transport logistics and shipping analysts 24 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,119 Speaker 2: Lea Clascow. I first asked them about why the results 25 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: were so disappointing. 26 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 5: They're really just reeling from the impact from the labor 27 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 5: negotiations they had last year. So running up ahead of 28 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,279 Speaker 5: those negotiations, a lot of shippers were like, you know something, 29 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 5: I'm not going to use UPS because I might want 30 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:32,119 Speaker 5: to use one of their competitors like FedEx or even 31 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 5: the postal service, because I don't know if my stuff 32 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 5: is going to be able to get where it needs 33 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 5: to go on time. So a lot of that diverted freight, 34 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 5: you know, is kind of deleveraging effect on the network, 35 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 5: which really weighs on margins. And then you know, they 36 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 5: had the negotiations. They have a contract in place, which 37 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 5: is fantastic for UPS and also for the teams stairs, 38 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 5: you know, but a lot of the costs, the initial 39 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 5: costs of that new contract are in year one, and 40 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 5: so that's like a real big hit to margins. That 41 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 5: coupled with the fact it's taking some time for them 42 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 5: to win back some of that share. Management noted that 43 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 5: they've won back about sixty percent of that share. It's 44 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 5: going to take time for them to get that share 45 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 5: back to where it needs to be. And again, these 46 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 5: are networks, and when you're talking about freight transportation, it's 47 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 5: all about building density because the more stuff you can 48 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 5: deliver at the same time, you know, the better the 49 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 5: margins are. And that's what they're really working through right now. 50 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 5: And you know, and what I thought was kind of 51 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 5: one of the more interesting little tidbits is that they 52 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 5: think that this year that the small package volume from 53 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 5: an industry standpoint, is only going to increase like one percent, 54 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 5: which to me I thought was a little pessimistic. But 55 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 5: you know, all in all, they're really dealing with tepid demand, 56 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 5: they're dealing with rising costs, and you know, they're obviously 57 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 5: taking those costs pretty seriously. As you know, they're laying 58 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 5: off or planning the layoff or reduce heads however nicely 59 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 5: you want to say it, twelve thousand people. And then 60 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 5: also they're looking to get there. They're putting their brokerage business, 61 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 5: which is called Coyote under a strategic review. Coyote is 62 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 5: the third largest freight broker out there. So one of 63 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 5: the largest publicly traded ones are C. H. Robinson. People 64 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 5: might not know that, might may know that name. Also 65 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 5: r XO is another pure play brokerage as Landstar. There's 66 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 5: a couple private ones. A lot of large companies like 67 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 5: JB Hunt have their own brokerage business in house. 68 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 6: You get sorry for a series of stupid questions, but 69 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 6: this is who you're talking to. What is a freight 70 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 6: what's their role on what do they do a freight brokerage? 71 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 5: So it's they're pretty much get together buyers and sellers 72 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 5: of freight. So if you think about it, so if 73 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 5: you're a shipper and you have a load that you 74 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 5: need to get from point A to point B, you 75 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 5: might use a broker to find a truck to carry 76 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 5: that load, and the broker kind of makes a spread 77 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 5: in between what their charge the shipper and what they're 78 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 5: paying the trucking company. What's happened is, you know, it's 79 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 5: a very cyclical business. Uh, there's there's there's great highs 80 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: and kind of depressing loads and margins can be very 81 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 5: volatile during this like, so. 82 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 6: This this just a backup of this brokerage that they 83 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 6: own that they're now getting rid of. That you could 84 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 6: have gone to them and they could have picked a 85 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 6: shipper other than you know, the company that owns them UPS. 86 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know, so UPS could potentially use its 87 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 5: own in house brokerage to move a trailer load of 88 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 5: freight between two of their sorting facilities. Or if you're 89 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 5: Walmart and you know you have an extra load that 90 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 5: you need to get from your DC to you know, 91 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 5: your spring Lake Walmart. I don't think there's a spring 92 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 5: Walmart and spring Lake Brick. You know, you might, you 93 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 5: might use them because either the carriers that you're contracted 94 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 5: with don't have the capacity, or you're trying to take 95 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 5: advantage of cheap rates and spot market, and right now 96 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 5: truckload rates are extremely cheap. They've been bouncing along the 97 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 5: bottom for quite some time, and so shippers might like 98 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 5: to leverage that. You know, intermodal is an example. So 99 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 5: you know the intermodal space, which is railroads. You know 100 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 5: that's when you see like two containers on top of 101 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 5: a railroad. You know, they're facing increased competition because of 102 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 5: the loose conditions that are on the spot market, and 103 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 5: a lot of those shippers might use brokerage to try 104 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 5: to find a carrier to carry their loads. 105 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 2: Our Thanks to Bloomberg Intelligence senior Transport, Logistics and Shipping 106 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 2: analysts Lea Clasico, let's turn. 107 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 3: Out to Boeing posting fourth quarter earnings, cashul and revenue 108 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 3: that surpassed analyst expectations, but the planemaker for gold guidance 109 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 3: for twenty twenty four as it faces lapses in safety. 110 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 2: To help recap the earnings, co host Emily Grafeo and 111 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 2: I spoke with Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines 112 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 2: analysts George Ferguson. He began the conversation by discussing his 113 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 2: key takeaways from fourth quarter earnings. 114 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 7: I thought that the quarter's numbers looked pretty much in 115 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 7: line with what we expected, maybe a little bit better. 116 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 7: Commercial airplane. Some of the cash flow generation was a 117 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 7: little bit better. A lot of it from deposits, you 118 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 7: know that they're getting from airplanes as they move through production. 119 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 7: So I wouldn't call that sort of I mean, it's 120 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 7: good cash FLOWD what I wouldn't call it super high quality, 121 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 7: right like when you're generating a lot of cash from 122 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 7: your core operations. Their their global services business had some 123 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 7: very nice margins, even better than we expected, and that's 124 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 7: been a star performer. 125 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 8: It's good to see that holding up. 126 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 7: But yeah, I think the real story here is about 127 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 7: going forward. How they, how they, you know, nip these 128 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 7: quality problems in the bud. And so I do think 129 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 7: that as I think about it more sort of pulling 130 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 7: back guidance, I think that indicates that management is ready 131 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 7: to do whatever it takes to get these. 132 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 8: Quality problems in hand. 133 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 7: And so, you know, my senses maybe they think, look, 134 00:06:58,120 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 7: we we you know, we may not want to be 135 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 7: whole to an exact number of airplanes in twenty twenty 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 7: four as we dig through our manufacturing process and through 137 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 7: the supply chain processes and make sure that we're getting 138 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 7: a quality airplane out the door every single time. 139 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 8: So if pulling guidance is all. 140 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 7: About that and the efforts around that, at what it's 141 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 7: going to take, and focusing again on quality over just 142 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 7: management management metrics, I think that could be a very 143 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 7: very good sign. You know, again the management team is 144 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 7: crystal focused on this is what we have to do. 145 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 9: How different is that than what the company has already 146 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 9: been doing for the last few years. Were they not 147 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 9: as focused on quality and safety beforehand? Like how much 148 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 9: of this is truly a turnaround and a change for Boeing. 149 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 7: So I think I think the business has just materially changed. 150 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:57,239 Speaker 7: I was at an aerospace defense conference last week, and 151 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 7: you know, I didn't need the conference to tell me this, 152 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 7: but I was prize that it was persistent and that 153 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 7: and what I heard from people at the conference over 154 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 7: and over again is that finding employees and employee turnover 155 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 7: is still a problem. 156 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 8: In this industry. It's still a problem now, you know. 157 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 7: I think that the higher you up in the tiers, 158 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 7: like a Boeing or an RTX or a GE, it's 159 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 7: easier to retain employees because you provide great benefit packages. 160 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 8: Everybody wants to be there. But even they have had 161 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 8: a lot of turnover. 162 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 7: And so I think pre pandemic, you could you could 163 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 7: potentially fall back on the thought and in the manufacturing 164 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 7: process of Boeing that you had very, very seasoned. 165 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 8: Folks on the line that have been well. 166 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 7: Trained, seen years in and years out of the business 167 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 7: and we're always going to get it done right. But 168 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 7: I think with the amount of turnover they've had. They 169 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 7: really need to go back and rethink, you know, how 170 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 7: they supervise the line, how they train the employees, and 171 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 7: they have to they have to create more stability by 172 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 7: investing in those people. And so I think this business 173 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 7: has been to rely changed since the pandemic. I will 174 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 7: also say that, you know, Bowling has been sort of 175 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 7: pushing this outsourcing of the business again. They were doing 176 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,680 Speaker 7: this pre pandemic, and this is all about, you know, 177 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 7: they want to sort of turn it into the auto industry, 178 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 7: where you outsource subcomponents, you bring it together and rent 179 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 7: and you put together an airplane. And that's turned the 180 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 7: supply chain into a much bigger, you know, portion of 181 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 7: of what you're doing. And it's global as well, right 182 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 7: You're making some of these doors in Malaysia. Things are 183 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 7: coming from all over the world into renting to turn 184 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 7: into an airplane. And I think that's making it more 185 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 7: difficult to keep track of the supply chain and the 186 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 7: quality and the supply chain and what folks are doing 187 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 7: down at those factories. And so I think it's terially changed. 188 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 2: That's the problem, So George, and that sounds like a 189 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 2: problem to me. That was probably decades in the making, 190 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: i e. You know, going more to subcontractors and and 191 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 2: you know, as part of globalization. Perhaps is there a 192 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 2: sense that this is a really a long term fix 193 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: that investors should not expect anything months. Maybe it's gonna 194 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 2: take years here. 195 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 7: Well, so I mean, I don't think they're going to 196 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 7: stop production. I do think they're going to dig through 197 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 7: the supply chain, you know, sort of hopefully methodically, and 198 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 7: figure out where there could be sources of problem. But 199 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 7: I think what it means is that you're just not 200 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 7: going to see potentially the margin and the cash flow 201 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 7: out of this business that you saw a pre pandemic 202 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 7: for years. While they spend more money and more time 203 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 7: and invest in people and go down and make sure 204 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,599 Speaker 7: that everything works. Some stuff may need to be reconsolidated 205 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 7: back at sub tier suppliers or even at Boeing if 206 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 7: they can't get comfortable that they're going to get the 207 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 7: quality out of it. I think it drags. Like I 208 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 7: said in Earnings, Cash Generation two years from now. 209 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 2: At the same time, what I hear from you and 210 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 2: from others in the airline businesses, there's a big demand 211 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 2: for new aircraft out there. So how do they balance 212 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 2: maybe slowing down the line a little bit with the 213 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 2: fact that they're customers need more and more of their product. 214 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 7: So I think it I think it hurts. I think 215 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 7: you'd like to be breaking to higher build rates. Now 216 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 7: air Bus will and air Bus will get market share, 217 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 7: but I think in the long term if you don't, 218 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 7: if you don't fix the quality problem here, you'll lose 219 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 7: long term share and competitiveness and that and that would 220 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 7: be really really bad. 221 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 9: What does this mean for Boeing stock price? Because compare 222 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 9: it to air Bus, it's underperforming on a year basis 223 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 9: Boeing versus Airbus. So is this enough to bring investors 224 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 9: new money into Boeing or is Airbus still going to 225 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 9: be the outperformer here? 226 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 7: So I mean, I think you know, Boeing investors are 227 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 7: going to have to take the long view here, right 228 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 7: because again I don't see any quick fix, you know, 229 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 7: quick leaping to much higher build rates, much better cash generation, 230 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 7: because I think they need to invest back in their business. 231 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,839 Speaker 7: Airbus apparent doesn't apparently have this problem. I think more 232 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 7: of the supply chain is bill in house at Airbus 233 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 7: or at least better controlled, And so I think you're 234 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 7: going to see that Airbus is going to perform fundamentally better. 235 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 2: Here thanks to Bloomberg Intelligence. Senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines 236 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 2: analyst George ferguson. 237 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 3: Coming up why Tesla's profit margin may deserve more appreciation 238 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 3: than it's actually getting. 239 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in 240 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: depth research and data on two thousand companies and one 241 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via 242 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 2: b I go on the terminal. 243 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 3: I'm Paul Sweeney, Ana Malex Steel, and this is Bloomberg. 244 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 245 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 4: weekdays at ten am Eastern on. 246 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: Apocarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 247 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 248 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 249 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 3: Let's turn out a Tesla, who stock has tumbled so 250 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 3: far this year, the auto industry warns a plunging ed demand, 251 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 3: and Wall Street analyst scale back on expectations. 252 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 2: Co host Emliker Feel joined me as we spoke with 253 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Editor in chief Emeritus Matt Winkler on this 254 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 2: He discussed why Tesla's profit margin deserves more appreciation than 255 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 2: it's getting. 256 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 10: After losing fifty percent of shareholder worth since November twenty 257 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 10: twenty one, Tesla still is, surprise, surprise, the tenth most 258 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 10: valuable company, and it has the greatest market capitalization of 259 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 10: any maker of cars and trucks in the world. And 260 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 10: there's a reason for that why that is so today, 261 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 10: and it's because Tesla's margins of profit profit margins are 262 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 10: superior to any automaker, including by the way, you could 263 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 10: say its most interesting competitor, BYD from China, which if 264 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 10: you look at the last quarter, became the global sales 265 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 10: leader for zero mission vehicles, which of course it's the 266 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 10: Tesla space, which it has owned. And with all of that, 267 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 10: with all of that, if you like bad news, Tesla 268 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 10: still is holding its value. And I will say this 269 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 10: that if you looked at bid over the past six months, 270 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 10: it's actually trading it it's low. It's declined significantly since August. 271 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 10: So if there was if you like a reevaluation in 272 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 10: the market, if anything, Tesla is more than holding its 273 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 10: own and if anything, BYD is depreciating, and the rest 274 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 10: of the auto industry, of course doesn't have anything close 275 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 10: to the profit margins of Tesla. So that's the story. 276 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 10: I kind of like it, only because after last week, 277 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 10: everybody seemed to be going in one direction if you 278 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 10: read the narrative. The prevailing narrative was, you know, Tesla's 279 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 10: days are numbered not so fast. 280 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 9: So why are people overlooking? And is the fact that 281 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 9: Tesla is down more than fifty percent from its all 282 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 9: time high? Does that mean to you that this profitability 283 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 9: is actually not priced in yet? 284 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 10: Tesla has been a volatile stock, and remember we're talking 285 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 10: about an adolescent here when public in twenty ten, and 286 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 10: it's had many periods like this one where it has 287 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 10: retreated significantly, only to rebound with greater fervor. You've seen 288 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 10: that time and again. You know we're likely to see 289 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 10: it again. But here's an example. If you were to 290 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 10: go right now to the say Fortune magazine most admired Companies, 291 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 10: Tesla isn't there. Now, Think about that for a second. 292 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 10: This is a company that has completely transformed the auto 293 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 10: industry as we know it. It has essentially convinced people 294 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 10: that zero omission vehicles or the future, and even the 295 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 10: very traditional auto giants that competes against have conceded that 296 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 10: they have to make evs, and you would have thought 297 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 10: that would be in and of itself significant enough to 298 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 10: be admired, But no, it's not there. So there's a 299 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 10: lot of, if you will, noise that's associated with Tesla 300 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 10: because of its co founder, Elon Musk, and often the 301 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 10: noise obscures the signal, which is the vehicle itself. 302 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 2: Hey, Matt, I know you've been a long time owner 303 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 2: of the Tesla automobile, so you follow this industry probably 304 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 2: as close as anyone, just because I suspect it's always 305 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 2: been of interest to you. I think the issue now 306 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 2: for investors, not just for Tesla investors, is what is 307 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 2: the ultimate demand for evs out there? And now there's 308 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 2: a question. We saw Ford pull back the production of 309 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 2: the Ford F one fifty Lightning, which I've test driven. 310 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 2: It is an awesome vehicle at ninety four thousand dollars, 311 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 2: or better be, what is your sense as to the 312 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 2: man picture for electric vehicles in this country? 313 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 10: Okay, so you're quite right. I do own a Tesla models. 314 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,199 Speaker 10: I never owned the shares for obvious reasons, because it 315 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 10: would be a conflict of interest. In Bloomberg. Being Bloomberg, 316 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 10: we're very careful about such things. But I am at 317 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 10: the one hundred thousand threshold on my Tesla and there's 318 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 10: no sign of any kind of deterioration. And I would 319 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 10: say that many people who write about Tesla probably don't 320 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 10: have the experience of the people who own Tesla's and 321 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 10: if you ask people who own Tesla's pretty much the 322 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 10: satisfaction there is right near the top. And actually Consumer 323 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 10: Report spares that out. So I would say that the 324 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 10: demand for evs is only going to increase. There was 325 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 10: recently a story on Bloomberg about more competition in California, 326 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 10: which has been the same that has led. 327 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 2: But that's California. It's like a different country. 328 00:17:58,640 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 8: Let's be honest. 329 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 10: It's a case of yeah, there are more people buying evs, 330 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 10: and they're not buying as just Tesla as anymore. Tesla 331 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 10: had a seventy percent market share and now it's down 332 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 10: to sixty something percent. But Tesla's still growing. And that's 333 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 10: the whole point, is that the pie is getting bigger, 334 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 10: and Tesla's piece of the pie is going to get biggers. 335 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 2: From people say I want to buy a Tesla, I 336 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 2: don't want to buy an ev you know, it's like 337 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 2: I want to buy a Tesla because a teslacas it's 338 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 2: such a cool car core brand, But I'm not buying 339 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: it because per se, because it's an EV. 340 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 8: Yeah. 341 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 10: And look, here's the thing. Tesla makes only zero mission vehicles. 342 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 10: It's competing against companies outside of BYD and a handful 343 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 10: of others that make all these other fossil fuel machines. 344 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 10: That's a very complicated equation, which is why the profitability 345 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 10: in the auto industry is inferior compared to Tesla. Tesla 346 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 10: only has to focus on one thing, and so far, 347 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 10: if you look at it, it's done very well. You know, 348 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,239 Speaker 10: first there was the models, and then there was the 349 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 10: Model X, and then there's the Model Why you know, 350 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 10: the Model three. All of these vehicles actually have made 351 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 10: Tesla a very formidable company, and there's more to come. 352 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 10: I mean, the reason why the stock fell as much 353 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 10: as it did is because Elon Musk actually said we're 354 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 10: going to take a pause, so to speak, to get 355 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 10: an even cheaper EV model in front of people in 356 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 10: the years to come. 357 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 2: What do you think that China's situation is for Elon 358 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 2: must from a competitive standpoints, selling those Teslas into China, 359 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 2: visav byd and some of the other Chinese manufacturers. 360 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 10: The vehicle speaks for itself, and to the extent that 361 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 10: consumers make that choice, it's a good thing for Tesla 362 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 10: to be in China. 363 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 2: Our thanks to Bloomberg News Editor in Chief Emeritus Matt Winkler. 364 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 3: Amazon dot Com abandoning its plan one point four billion 365 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 3: dollar acquisition of rumba maker I Robana. This comes after 366 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 3: a clash with European Union regulators who had threatened to 367 00:19:59,480 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 3: block that. 368 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 2: Co host Molly Smith and I spoke about this and 369 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 2: the latest and anti trust enforcement with Bloomberg Intelligence senior 370 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,479 Speaker 2: litigation antitrust analyst Jennifer ree I first asked Jennifer if 371 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: she was surprised the deal between Amazon and I Robot 372 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 2: fell apart. 373 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 11: It wasn't at all, because back in July, the EU 374 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,360 Speaker 11: said we have concerns about this deal. I mean they're 375 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 11: concerned about competition in the market for robot vacuums. I 376 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 11: think there's this idea that anti trust is only interested 377 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 11: in really big deals. But at the end of the day, 378 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 11: no matter how small the business is or how few 379 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,479 Speaker 11: consumers it might impact, if there's an anti trust problem, 380 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 11: they still have concerns and it's still an illegal deal 381 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 11: in the eyes of regulators. So here they said in 382 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 11: a couple different countries in Europe that Amazon was a 383 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 11: particularly important distributor for robot vacuums and they could foreclose competitors. 384 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 12: I mean, but Amazon's in the market for everything obviously, 385 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 12: not just you know, the robo vacuum market. So and 386 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 12: surely there must be other real competitors out there that 387 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 12: have a more narrowed focus on the robo vacuum space 388 00:20:59,359 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 12: than Amazon. 389 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 11: Well likely, and that's probably what they argued. But the 390 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 11: thing is, the European Commission said, but this is a 391 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 11: particularly important channel because you won't only own the vacuum, 392 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 11: but you're going to own distribution. An important distribution is 393 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 11: like a vertical acquisition, right. It's an integration that they 394 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 11: had a problem with because that would give them the 395 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 11: ability to foreclose some of these other smaller makers of 396 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 11: these vacuums that need to sell on Amazon. And apparently 397 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,199 Speaker 11: in some countries there wasn't enough other competition, so they 398 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 11: had some concerns. There could have been a remedy offered, 399 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 11: but the company decided not to do that. So it 400 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 11: was kind of a stalemate and honestly they were going 401 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 11: to get sued in the US, right, That's what I think. 402 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 12: Yes, OK, I kind of feel like this sets like 403 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 12: a bit of a tone maybe for I would think 404 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 12: there's got to be other similar consumer electronics companies the 405 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 12: where Amazon is a big competitor. That's like, I mean, 406 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,199 Speaker 12: does this set some kind of a standard maybe that 407 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 12: this could be an issue going forward in the antitrust world. 408 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 11: Well, I think what it tells you in terms of mergers, 409 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 11: I think it'll tell you that anytime these big tech platforms, 410 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 11: particularly Amazon, try to continue to expand their businesses this 411 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 11: way through mergers, they're going to have trouble. They're going 412 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 11: to face hurdles in the EU, UK, US, The UK 413 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 11: didn't have too many problems with this one. But I 414 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 11: think it does tell us something about the FTC's lawsuit. 415 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 11: You know, they have now this ongoing lawsuit against Amazon, 416 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 11: and they're looking at all these different businesses where that 417 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 11: compete with Amazon but also sell on the marketplace and 418 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 11: have some concerns about it. So you know, some of 419 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 11: the concept that went into the concerns here will be 420 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 11: part of that lawsuit in the US. We're a long 421 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 11: way away from an outcome there. That's pretty new, but 422 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 11: it's pending. 423 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 2: Chen when you talk to some of your friends in 424 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 2: the business, the M and A attorneys out there is 425 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:38,360 Speaker 2: the feeling like almost it really is different out there. 426 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 2: It is really appreciably harder to get anything approved these days. 427 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 11: Oh, Paul, Absolutely, it is so much harder. There's so 428 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 11: much more scrutiny, it takes longer, and that we're seeing 429 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 11: that in the merger agreements. They are different than they 430 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 11: were five years ago. There are much bigger breakup fees 431 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 11: for sellers because they're concerned about the investigation, which can 432 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 11: take a year. They're concerned about a lawsuit. You have 433 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 11: much longer end dates. I mean, it used to be 434 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 11: the end date of a year seem like a really 435 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 11: long end date. Now we're looking at like two years 436 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 11: in some of these agreements because they know they might 437 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 11: have to go to litigation. 438 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 2: So, yeah, there's a big. 439 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 11: Difference right now. 440 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 2: And is that a sense that this it's a short 441 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 2: term reflection of who's in the White House, or is 442 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 2: that just a sense that I don't know, Congress or 443 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 2: society is anti big deal, or. 444 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 11: It's more about who's in the White House, because it's 445 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 11: about the appointments at the FTC and DJ making these 446 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 11: anti trust decisions. Right, So it just happens that we 447 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 11: have two people making decisions that the DOJ and FTC 448 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 11: that are particularly activists, particularly progressive in this area, believe 449 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 11: anti trust enforcement has been way too lax for years 450 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 11: and they're trying to change things. 451 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 12: Are these people's jobs potentially at risk if if Biden 452 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 12: doesn't win re election, Absolutely, and what would the potential 453 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 12: other candidates view on antitrust be. 454 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 11: So the interesting thing is that it really depends on 455 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 11: who's appointed. So let's just say the next president is Republican, right, 456 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 11: Trump or somebody else? Right Now, the Republicans are kind 457 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 11: of a mixed bag. I mean, it used to be 458 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 11: you could always think they're going to be way more 459 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 11: business friendly, they're going to appreciate the efficiencies that come 460 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 11: from consolidation, right, But now you kind of have this 461 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 11: populous side of the Republican Party, and some of the 462 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,880 Speaker 11: people in that group also believe we need to crack 463 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 11: down on andy trust, like sort of the Josh Hollies 464 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 11: of the world. So I think if you get a 465 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 11: Republican it's going to depend exactly on who they put 466 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 11: as the chief of Anti Trust at DOJ and who 467 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 11: the commissioners are that get appointed at the. 468 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 2: FTC our Thanks to Bloomberg Intelligence, senior litigation analyst Jennifer Ree. 469 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 3: Coming up on the program, We're going to get the 470 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 3: latest on earnings from Rockwell Automation directly from the company. 471 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 2: C e oh, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence on 472 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth research and data on two 473 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 2: thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries. You can 474 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,959 Speaker 2: access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi go on the terminal. 475 00:24:54,040 --> 00:25:01,360 Speaker 3: I'm Paul Sweeney, anam Alex Steele. This is Bloomberg. 476 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:09,160 Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 477 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 4: weekdays at ten am Eastern on. 478 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: Applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 479 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,479 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 480 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 481 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 3: Rockwell Automation posting first quarter propit that missed analyst expectations. 482 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 3: So for more, Paul and I spoke with Rockwell CEO 483 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 3: Blake Morett. We discussed the state of American manufacturing and 484 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 3: the use of automation and technology. I first asked him 485 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 3: why the street was so disappointed in his numbers. 486 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 13: Well, I think they did hear the message of continued 487 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 13: underlying demand remaining strong. But we had a shipment miss 488 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,199 Speaker 13: in the quarter. A lot of that was execution, and 489 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 13: we look at that as timing for shipments that will 490 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 13: come back in the year. You know, we had a 491 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 13: very strong growth last year of seventeen percent top line 492 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 13: twenty eight percent adjust to EPs. This is a bit 493 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 13: of a reset year as we get done shipping off 494 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 13: that older backlog that piled up as a result of 495 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:16,880 Speaker 13: supply chain shortages and go back to booking and billing 496 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 13: incoming new orders. And so we're seeing lower growth in 497 00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 13: the year with some growing pains, but the underlying demand 498 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:25,679 Speaker 13: remains pretty strong. 499 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 2: That's kind of where I want to go. Blake, tell 500 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 2: us who your customers are and what are your customers 501 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 2: telling you these days, we may. 502 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 13: Be the most pervasive technology in American manufacturing, so everything 503 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 13: from automotive and battery manufacturing to warehouse automation, food and beverage, 504 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 13: life sciences, energy, both traditional fossil fuel as well as 505 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 13: renewables across that whole spectrum our technology, our hardware, and 506 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 13: our software and our services are pretty prevalent. 507 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 3: So when do you know, Blake, if it's still the 508 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 3: supply chain issues that you're still working through versus just 509 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 3: weaker demand, Like do you even know when that moment shifts? 510 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 13: Well, So we had an encouraging quarter in the demand 511 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 13: side in that in Q one, so the quarter ended 512 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,159 Speaker 13: in December. We did see double digit sequential growth and 513 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 13: orders off of the trough in our fiscal year, our 514 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 13: fiscal Q four last year, and those orders increases have 515 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 13: continued into January, so that's a very positive sign. Now, 516 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 13: a lot of our distributors, and most of our business 517 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:42,719 Speaker 13: does go through electrical distributors, they had higher inventory than 518 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,479 Speaker 13: they wanted and we expect in the coming couple of 519 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 13: months that that inventory gets to more of a normal 520 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 13: level so that their orders to us reflect the strong 521 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 13: underlying demand from machine builders and end users. 522 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 2: Blake, how much lead time do you have in your business? 523 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 2: What's your order book and kind of how much how 524 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:05,919 Speaker 2: much lead tien do you really have? 525 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,880 Speaker 13: So the product business, which is the majority of our business, 526 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,199 Speaker 13: those lead times are typically days and weeks in a 527 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 13: normal period, and part of our challenge in Q one 528 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 13: was returning all of our products to those fast lead times. 529 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 13: But in a normal, you know, environment, we get an 530 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,880 Speaker 13: order and it either gets shipped that day off our 531 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 13: distributors shelf, or we're able to make it and ship 532 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 13: it within days or a few weeks for those products. 533 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 3: So are you an early cycle economic read? Is that 534 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 3: fair to say? 535 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 13: You know, we certainly have exposure early in the cycle, 536 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 13: but the so called late cycle is also an important 537 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 13: part of our business. Whether you're talking about the traditional 538 00:28:55,400 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 13: process industries or life sciences, we've got pretty broad exposure early, 539 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 13: mid and late cycle. Although I have to say with 540 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 13: the supply chain backlog that we had in twenty twenty 541 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 13: two and twenty three, with the distributor overstock that we're 542 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 13: working through now, it's hard to pin a particular point 543 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 13: in the traditional cycle on this time. 544 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 3: Well, also because you're exposed to sort of all the 545 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 3: structural changes too, like infrastructure act A, chips ACT, the IRA, 546 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 3: So that's a structural shift even though you're still cyclical. 547 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 3: I can imagine that being quite confusing. So based on 548 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 3: where you are and all the different cycles, how are 549 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 3: we doing, Like how's the global economy doing, you know. 550 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 13: Particularly in our home market in the US, where we 551 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 13: have the largest market share, we see continued strong underlying demand. 552 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 13: So we're expecting our orders to be up, you know, 553 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 13: low single digits, and we've guided to one point up 554 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 13: in terms of organic shipments. Underlining demand I think remained 555 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 13: strong and one of the key indicators for me is 556 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 13: continued low unemployment rates in our most important markets. 557 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 2: So, Blake, I'm looking at the PGeo function on the 558 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg termol and I could see just by geography looking 559 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 2: at your revenue again, sixty percent roughly of your revenue 560 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 2: as North America. So give us a sense of kind 561 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,840 Speaker 2: of North America versus rest of the world. What do 562 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 2: you guys seeing North America is. 563 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 13: The strongest market. China has significant problems right now, and 564 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 13: Europe still dealing with some of their structural issues. A 565 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 13: lot of the business we get in Europe is actually 566 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 13: for export back to North America from the machine builders 567 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 13: over there. But we expect for this year North America 568 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,160 Speaker 13: is going to be the strongest market and that's good 569 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 13: for us because we've got home field advantage. 570 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 3: It feels like a US exceptionalism conversation right. Like yet again, 571 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 3: so if we just go macro them for a minute, 572 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 3: if the FED cuts rates in May, what does that do, 573 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 3: Like if you're already seeing us hold up pretty well, 574 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 3: does that accelerate the economy from where you stound? 575 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 13: I think that could help some of the largest CAPEX projects, 576 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 13: which you know we get some business from. But we're 577 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 13: not as much of a capex play as you know 578 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,959 Speaker 13: some other names, and that we're pretty balanced between CAPEX 579 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 13: as well as op X in terms of improvements additional 580 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 13: efficiency in existing facilities as well. So I don't know 581 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 13: that interest rates are our biggest indicator. As I said, 582 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 13: for the economy, I look at unemployment, and you know, 583 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 13: I look at the amount of automation investment, both for 584 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:54,120 Speaker 13: new green fields as well as adding efficiency and resilience 585 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 13: in existing facilities. 586 00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: Like just explain to us kind of what your competitive 587 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 2: marketplace looks like. Where are you guys versus your competitors? 588 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 2: Who do you compete against? And how's that changing? 589 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 13: So our big competitors are mostly the European conglomerates. Really, 590 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 13: it's Semen, Schneider abb in certain narrow parts in the market, 591 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 13: Honeywell and Emerson here in the US where really, you know, 592 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 13: we distinguished ourselves by having a very balanced exposure from 593 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 13: discrete applications like automotive, to hybrid applications like food and 594 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 13: beverage and life sciences, to continuous process applications like energy 595 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 13: and mining and so on. 596 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 3: Hey Blake. To that point, Seemens Energy, part of Semen 597 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 3: had just been really hurt by offshore wind here in 598 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 3: the US, I should say, not owned by Semens, but 599 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 3: Semens owns a stake in Semens Energy. How what's your 600 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 3: view on the energy green transition build out right now? 601 00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 3: Are you losing money? You making money? What is your 602 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 3: order book look like? 603 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 13: It's still early innings, but we're seeing good business as 604 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 13: a result of energy transition. And I would bucket it 605 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 13: in three different ways. I'd look at first, the decarbonization 606 00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 13: of the traditional oil and gas companies, so carbon capture projects. 607 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 13: We've talked about the work we're doing with Occidental in 608 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 13: their director capture projects, the one point five initiative, it's renewables, 609 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 13: and again we've talked publicly about what we're doing with 610 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 13: companies like First Solar in creating you know, PV panels. 611 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 13: And then it's the thing that we've been doing for 612 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 13: our entire history, and that's driving efficiency across all manufacturing, 613 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 13: and those are all good applications for us. You know, 614 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 13: there's some relatively nascent areas like hydrogen that are sources 615 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 13: of optimism, but you know, I would put them in 616 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 13: those three main areas. 617 00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 2: Hey, Blake, I'm looking at the A and R function 618 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,239 Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg terminal. It shows me that there are 619 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 2: eleven Wall Street analysts buys on your stock, twelve holds 620 00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:08,839 Speaker 2: and five cells, so pretty mixed across the board. What's 621 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,640 Speaker 2: the message that you bring to your investors into the marketplace. 622 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 13: That the underlying demand remained strong, that we really have 623 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 13: a unique position among all of those competitors and among 624 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 13: the niche competitors. I like the hand we have, and 625 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 13: as you know, manufacturing picks up and resets from the 626 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 13: period of supply chain shortages. We're in a great spot 627 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 13: to accelerate our profitable growth before. 628 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:39,759 Speaker 9: We end here. 629 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,279 Speaker 3: I don't know ninety seconds left. You mentioned jobs quite 630 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 3: a few times. What is your assessment of the labor market? 631 00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,319 Speaker 3: Hard to get you're going to keep labor paying more? 632 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 9: What do you see? 633 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:54,319 Speaker 13: You know, I think in manufacturing workforce there's still a 634 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 13: lot of unfilled jobs, and we think that, you know, 635 00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:04,320 Speaker 13: having a skill workforce is absolutely essential for manufacturers to compete, 636 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,840 Speaker 13: but it's augmented with the kind of technology that we offer. 637 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 13: So it's really that winning hand of having an enabled 638 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 13: and engaged workforce, and we do a lot to help 639 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 13: with workforce development, and it's also given them so called 640 00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 13: superpowers with the technology that we offer. 641 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:22,800 Speaker 9: Superpowers. 642 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,280 Speaker 2: Can you find people for your type of work? 643 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 13: You know, certain jobs, it takes longer than in others. 644 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,720 Speaker 13: We're actually helping with workforce development programs that we offer 645 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 13: in house and then provide labor, particularly focused towards technician 646 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:45,799 Speaker 13: level jobs for manufacturers in America through our Academy of 647 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 13: Advanced Manufacturing. 648 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,080 Speaker 3: Thanks very much to Rockwell Automation CEO Blake Morrett. 649 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,919 Speaker 2: That's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, 650 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,799 Speaker 2: providing research and data on two thousand companies and one 651 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:56,760 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty industries. 652 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 3: And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence through Bigo on 653 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 3: the two terminal. I'm Alex Steele and. 654 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories and 655 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 2: global business headlines are coming up right now 656 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:10,480 Speaker 8: M