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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: Brendan glas Sheen and the host chair, joined today by

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Speaker 1: Sean Zarrillo and Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: You're on August sixteenth.

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Speaker 1: That means we're here for some best bets around the

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Speaker 1: UFC card. Yes, we're heading out to Perth, Australia for UFC.

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Speaker 3: Three oh five.

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Speaker 1: It's at the rac Arena main event and the main

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Speaker 1: card over on pay per view. As we look forward

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Speaker 1: to this, I wait a couple more of these to

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Speaker 1: go on the podcast side because we make the full

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Speaker 1: transition to NFL. So it's our second to last week

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Speaker 1: covering UFC extensively on Fridays here on the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: So let's dive on in. We've got ourselves a middleweight

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Speaker 3: title fight.

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Speaker 1: Sean, that's gonna I think, captivate some folks. You got

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Speaker 1: Israel Atasanya and drink this dupless. They've been mouthed off

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Speaker 1: to each other. There's some personal back and forth between

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Speaker 1: these two, so that's compelling. What do you make of

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Speaker 1: the actual fight itself and how you would like to

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Speaker 1: approach began.

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Speaker 4: Pick them fight, and I think it deserves to be

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Speaker 4: a pick them fight because the longer I break this

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Speaker 4: one down, the more confusing I feel like I'm getting.

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Speaker 4: Is with regards to which side I want to pick,

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Speaker 4: I don't fence it. With regards to my main event takes.

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Speaker 4: I feel like I pretty usually pretty competent main event takes,

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Speaker 4: and I.

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Speaker 5: Feel like my ROI I made events, I would agree HI.

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Speaker 4: This one I'm really torn on, Like I want to

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Speaker 4: be very clear, if this was not a main event,

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Speaker 4: if I did not have to give out a pick

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Speaker 4: on this fight, if I was not writing an individual

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Speaker 4: fight preview for this one, I'm sitting back and watching

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Speaker 4: it because this is really tough to pick.

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Speaker 5: I think the determining factor.

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Speaker 4: For who wins is how many rounds Dricus Duplessi gets

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Speaker 4: takedowns in and how long he keeps those positions, because

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Speaker 4: I do think he needs to grapple to win this fight.

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Speaker 4: I think he could be competitive in the kickboxing, but

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Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to have as much success

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Speaker 4: as he had against his other recent opponents. Is he

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Speaker 4: is three inches taller, he's four inches longer, He's a

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Speaker 4: great counter striker, and he's got the longer legs. He's

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Speaker 4: going to be able to kick Dricus a ton. Is

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Speaker 4: He's recent opponents too, We're all really good at checking

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Speaker 4: leed cakes, Yan Bolovich, Sean Strickland, Alex Pajera. Pejera also

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Speaker 4: kicked him a ton, which slowed him down. DDP is

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Speaker 4: going to absorb all those led cakes, and I think

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Speaker 4: when they're standing at range is he's going to have

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Speaker 4: a lot more success in the striking exchanges the ddp's

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Speaker 4: up recent opponents had and as is he had against.

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Speaker 5: His recent opponents.

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Speaker 4: So I think the striking advantage is pretty clear for

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Speaker 4: Adasania here. He's just so much longer, He's quicker, much

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Speaker 4: more technical. Dracus needs the crowd him. He needs to

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Speaker 4: get in his face. He needs to force a lot

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Speaker 4: of grappling, whether it's wrestling and getting the fight to

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Speaker 4: the ground, or tying him up, putting him up against

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Speaker 4: the fence, clinching him, landing strikes from the clinch, and

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Speaker 4: just making this whole fight greasier, dirty and slowed down.

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Speaker 4: But as I said, I think it ultimately determines on

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Speaker 4: how many takedowns does he get, how many rounds, does

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Speaker 4: he get those takedowns in and how long does he

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Speaker 4: spend on top after getting taked outs? Because to me,

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Speaker 4: Dracus is just sort of a bigger, more muscular version

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Speaker 4: and a better athlete, but similar fighting style wise to

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Speaker 4: Marvin Ventori, who is he's beaten twice, beaten pretty comfortably,

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Speaker 4: was able to deny those takedowns, was able to scramble

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Speaker 4: up when getting taken down and eventually separated, and one

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Speaker 4: clear shrigging exchanges. I think this one plays out pretty

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Speaker 4: similarly on the feet. But also I think DDP is

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Speaker 4: capable of actually getting him down and holding top positions. So,

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Speaker 4: based on the fact that I think he needs top

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Speaker 4: time to win, I'm interested in duplus he by submission.

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Speaker 4: I think that's an I think it's a good number

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Speaker 4: considering if he wins, he's probably getting extensive grappling time

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Speaker 4: and likely close to finishing the fight at some point. However,

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Speaker 4: you know, in terms of how I projected out, I

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Speaker 4: show value on his decision prop. I show value on

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Speaker 4: easy by KO. That is where my projections point to

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Speaker 4: they're being value.

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Speaker 5: That's set.

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Speaker 4: I found it very interesting this fight is essentially forty

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Speaker 4: five percent to go to a decision, you know, plus

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Speaker 4: one fifteen. The fight is a pick them. The fight

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Speaker 4: is forty five percent to go to decision, so pretty

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Speaker 4: close to fifty to fifty to go to a decision.

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Speaker 4: Yet Isy is like minus two fifty to win by decision.

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Speaker 4: Drikus is about plus six hundred. So the betting market

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Speaker 4: strongly favors Drake is to win by finish if there

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Speaker 4: is a finish. The betting market strongly favors easy to

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Speaker 4: win by decision if it goes to decision. Yet, if

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Speaker 4: you look at how I projected this out, the value

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Speaker 4: is technically on easy to win by finish and Drake

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Speaker 4: is to win by decision.

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Speaker 5: So again, just want.

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Speaker 4: To reiterate, really confusing the more I looked at this one,

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Speaker 4: But I think I do think the determining factor is

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Speaker 4: how quickly do the takedowns come, how easily do they come,

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Speaker 4: and how long is Dracus able to stay on top?

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Speaker 4: And for that reason, you know, I think it's a

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Speaker 4: true pick them. I'd be happy to take plus one

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Speaker 4: hundred plus one probably plus one ten on either side.

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Speaker 4: It opened closer to plus one forty for drecas it's

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Speaker 4: now moved closer to a pick them. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: wait until closer to fight time to see if I

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Speaker 4: can get one of these guys at plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: And then I'm also, as I said, interested maybe in

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Speaker 4: Dracus by decision or Easy by KO. I do think

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Speaker 4: Dracus could top time him, maybe get a submission, but

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Speaker 4: likelier just get the top time win the rounds. But

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Speaker 4: I think Easy he's gonna have chances to counter a

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Speaker 4: guy who's going to be rushing in at them, similar

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Speaker 4: to how Paulo Costa fought him, or similar to how

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Speaker 4: Robert Whittaker fought him, where they have to find ways

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Speaker 4: to navigate that distance, close that foreign treach advantage and

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Speaker 4: they're gonna have to blitz in and try to land strikes,

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Speaker 4: or DDP is gonna have to blitz in and try

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Speaker 4: to land strikes like those guys did. And I think

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Speaker 4: he's gonna get caught in a counter Paris same thing

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Speaker 4: got caught in a counter and knocked out cold. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: is these counters or underrated? It's probably the best skill

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Speaker 4: of his overall game, aside from the leg kicks, and

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Speaker 4: I think he's gonna have opportunities to close the show.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, even though even though the market suggests that

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Speaker 4: DDP is the likely or finisher, I think it may

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Speaker 4: be the opposite.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're going back and forth. I think if you're

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Speaker 3: confused or all screwed.

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Speaker 5: It's a tough fight to break down. It's a very

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Speaker 5: good fight.

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Speaker 4: The best fights are often the toughest to break down

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Speaker 4: because people in their minds think they should be coin flips,

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Speaker 4: and certainly the betting market has gone that way. So

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Speaker 4: tough fight break down. But you know again, like I'd

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Speaker 4: be happy to take plus one ten either side. I

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Speaker 4: think it's a true coin flip. But if I'm betting

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Speaker 4: props do plus the decision is he ko I think

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Speaker 4: is the way to go.

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Speaker 1: It could have had slight plus money earlier in the

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Speaker 1: week on plusy. But see, Sean, that's why we have

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Speaker 1: the podcast because you can flush it all out and

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Speaker 1: then you can also throw it at Billy and you

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Speaker 1: can get Billy's thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Where do you land Billy Ward on this main event?

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Speaker 6: The thing that Sean said that I most strongly agree

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Speaker 6: with is that if this weren't the main event, I

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Speaker 6: would almost certainly not be betting it, Like I felt

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Speaker 6: that in my soul.

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Speaker 7: As you said, that, and.

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Speaker 6: It's just first of all, it's you know we talk

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Speaker 6: about with other sports, like efficient markets versus inefficient markets.

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Speaker 6: This is a fight that's been an out for a

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Speaker 6: long time. There's a lot of attention on it. We

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Speaker 6: can pretty reasonably assume that the market is mostly going

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Speaker 6: to be correct kind a fight like this because it

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Speaker 6: is drawing a lot of attention until Drake comes in

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Speaker 6: and best half a million dollars on someone. It's mostly

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Speaker 6: sharp action, betting early and pushing this where it should be.

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Speaker 4: I should say I'll wait to bet the other side

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Speaker 4: the Drake bats right. That's that's the actual.

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Speaker 3: Miss the tradition of this podcast for the big fights.

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Speaker 6: I mean, we know what side Drake's betting, right, Like

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Speaker 6: he's betting on out of Signya. Like that's pretty clear.

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Speaker 6: You can get some CLV on that one, just beating

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Speaker 6: Drake to the books. With that said, you know, since

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Speaker 6: I have to bet it for the sake of contact

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Speaker 6: and all those things, I think I'm going to take

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Speaker 6: out of Signya And where I landed on that is

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Speaker 6: if we ignore the Sean Strickland loss for Israel Outasinya.

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Speaker 6: If we just strike that from our memories is he's

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Speaker 6: like a minus three hundred favorite here right. His striking

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Speaker 6: is so much cleaner. Basically, nobody at middleweight has ever

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Speaker 6: been able to take him down or do anything with it.

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Speaker 6: He's more accurate, longer, all the things we look for.

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Speaker 6: We just have that Strickland loss where it's like, oh,

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Speaker 6: there is a game plan to beat him by getting

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Speaker 6: in his face and all that stuff.

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Speaker 7: We shouldn't ignore big data points.

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Speaker 6: With that said, it seems pretty likely that Atasanya wasn't

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Speaker 6: really training for that fight, didn't really care, just kind

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Speaker 6: of thought he was going to style on strictly and

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Speaker 6: just be so much better that it didn't matter. The

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Speaker 6: evidence I have for that is it came out after

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Speaker 6: that he got pulled over for Dui like ten days

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Speaker 6: before that fight, which doesn't strike me as a guy

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Speaker 6: who was working really hard and living the right way

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Speaker 6: and training camp. Assuming he's back to full motivation for

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Speaker 6: this one. This is a guy who knocked out Alex Paeda.

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Speaker 6: We think Alex Paida might be the best pounds for

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Speaker 6: pound fighter, it might be a three division champ pretty soon,

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Speaker 6: and Adasignia slept him. He was beating Peida for four

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Speaker 6: rounds when he lost to him too. He was up

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Speaker 6: three to one or four nothing, depending on which scorecards

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Speaker 6: you looked at, So you factor all that in at

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Speaker 6: thirty five, he's not super old for him middleweight. I

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Speaker 6: think ATTASIANNYA is the correct side here at the current lines.

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Speaker 6: I love Sean zangel about trying to wait on plus money.

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Speaker 6: That would obviously be much more comfortable. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 6: plant my flag on Adasania. Not a huge bet for me.

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Speaker 7: Don't go.

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Speaker 6: You know, this is not some five unit will play

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Speaker 6: of the week or anything like that. But if I

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Speaker 6: have to, which I kind of do, taking out a

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Speaker 6: signia on the money line. I get Sean's angle two,

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Speaker 6: where the books have overreacted to who's going to win

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Speaker 6: a decision, who's going to win a knockout? I originally

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Speaker 6: looked at, you know, maybe is the decision only he's

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Speaker 6: less likely to hunt for knockout stuff like that, But

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Speaker 6: books are have figured that out and have probably gone

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Speaker 6: too far in that direction, Billy.

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Speaker 4: One other angle is thinking about, you know, because a

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Speaker 4: lot of my difficulty judging this fight is not knowing

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Speaker 4: how the grappling exchanges look. If Drakes comes out and

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Speaker 4: immediately lands a takedown right and wins round one with

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Speaker 4: a takedown, but then round two he decides to strike

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Speaker 4: it out and he doesn't go for the takedown again.

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Speaker 5: But you're like, oh, I know he has that in

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Speaker 5: his back pocket.

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Speaker 4: Is Drake is not the live play if it goes

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Speaker 4: back to a pick the price after round two and

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Speaker 4: he only rappled once.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean that's a fair point.

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Speaker 6: And I've talked about it with various other fight breakdowns

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Speaker 6: that like, I might be a better striker than you,

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Speaker 6: but if I'm worried that you're going to take me down,

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Speaker 6: you've shown me that you can take me down, and

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Speaker 6: you're keeping those level changes in my face, you are

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Speaker 6: going to look like a better striker. We talked about

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Speaker 6: with g ROD and CLD. There's somebody a couple of

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Speaker 6: weeks ago. So yeah, that's a very good point. It's

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Speaker 6: gonna be interesting to see what the live lines are

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Speaker 6: like if there's public money kind of skewing those in

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Speaker 6: a weird way. I bet we're gonna have some rounds

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Speaker 6: that no one feels really confident who won, which also

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Speaker 6: makes it.

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Speaker 7: A live betting opportunity.

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Speaker 6: You know, if we have a couple of those rounds

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Speaker 6: and one guy goes to plus two hundred. I think

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Speaker 6: you don't even worry about anything else. You just say,

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Speaker 6: we don't know what the judges are thinking here.

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Speaker 7: But yeah, that's a good point too.

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Speaker 4: Is there a chance that my biggest like question mark

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Speaker 4: going into the fight is does he get like, how

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Speaker 4: easy does the takedown look? And I almost want to

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Speaker 4: see one before I determine which side of it on

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Speaker 4: because if Busy denies, it might be firing on Izzy

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Speaker 4: right away in the middle of round one. You know,

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Speaker 4: it's really like the first takedown I think is going

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Speaker 4: to tell you a lot and give you a lot

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Speaker 4: more information about how the whole life plays out.

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Speaker 1: Is there a path where you could maybe get both

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Speaker 1: guys on a plus money at some point?

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Speaker 3: And I know it's like it's like a split second

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Speaker 3: of a window. You have to yet that kind of edge.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, if it's a pick I'm going into the fight,

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Speaker 4: it's it's gonna flip back and forth depending on you

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Speaker 4: know which way the round tip. So absolutely, you know

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Speaker 4: you could if Drigus doesn't go for a takedown, and

264
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Speaker 4: say Dricus just decides to strike it out for a

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Speaker 4: round and he's like, hey, let's let's see how this goes.

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Speaker 4: I know I have the grappling in my back pocket,

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Speaker 4: but let's see if I can compete in the striking.

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Speaker 4: And he never grapples in round one and probably loses

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Speaker 4: the round, and then he's plus two hundred. Yeah, that's

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Speaker 4: that's the spot where you bet drinks because you're like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: he didn't even pursue his best path of victory yet,

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Speaker 4: and now the price blew out and he still has

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Speaker 4: four rounds to work with. You know, it's he didn't

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Speaker 4: really lose anything trying to strike it out for a round. Yes,

275
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Speaker 4: like he still needs to win three the final four rounds,

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Speaker 4: but if the takedowns were gonna come, they're still gonna come,

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Speaker 4: so you know he I I actually like, I think

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Speaker 4: that might be the best live spot is Drigus doesn't

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Speaker 4: grapple for a round. He blows out a little bit

280
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Speaker 4: to plus two fifty, but then you know he's probably

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Speaker 4: gonna try to grapple, and you're getting a much better

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Speaker 4: number on it at that point, So that that might

283
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Speaker 4: be the spot where I'd look to try to truly

284
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Speaker 4: jump in on drink. Yeah, I mean, with it being

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Speaker 4: a pick on fight Brennan, There's there's a good chance

286
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Speaker 4: you can get plus money in the live market at

287
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Speaker 4: both on both sides at different time, so definitely keep

288
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Speaker 4: an eye out for that.

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Speaker 5: And considering as I.

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Speaker 4: Said, I'd be happy to take either guy at plus money,

291
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Speaker 4: and I think there will be momentum swings back and

292
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Speaker 4: forth through the fight, very difficult rounds to judge in

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Speaker 4: this fight. I don't think that's a bad strategy at all.

294
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Speaker 7: All Right, there you go.

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Speaker 1: We just picked apart the main event in ten minutes,

296
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Speaker 1: so hope that's enough to not confuse you and you

297
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Speaker 1: have a little more clarity looking forward to that.

298
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Speaker 4: No, you know less than you do ten minutes ago

299
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Speaker 4: if you just listen to that breakdown.

300
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Speaker 1: But all you know, you guys kind of layered it

301
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Speaker 1: out where there's the possibilities are endless.

302
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a different it's very competitive, and I think

303
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Speaker 4: the line is accurate. So it's it's tough to like

304
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Speaker 4: really plant a fucker, all.

305
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Speaker 3: Right, fly away about.

306
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Speaker 1: It's a fight of the night for Sean and Billy Kai,

307
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Speaker 1: Kara France and Steve Earseg. The money the price on

308
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Speaker 1: ear Sik is part of me on Kai Carl Francis

309
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,439
Speaker 1: come down a little bit right right around plus one

310
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Speaker 1: forty from earlier in the week, could have had plus

311
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,400
Speaker 1: one fifty plus one fifty five. Sean's same kind of

312
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Speaker 1: deal here. I don't know if it's I don't know

313
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Speaker 1: if it's just as compelling as that the one we

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Speaker 1: just talked about.

315
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Speaker 3: But what do you make of it? And how would

316
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:16,360
Speaker 3: you like to go about betting it?

317
00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, not quite as violent of a fight maybe, but

318
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 4: still a very interesting fight between these flyweights. A battle

319
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,800
Speaker 4: of Oceana between New Zealand and Australia, which is always

320
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 4: going to be fun. So the home crowd will be

321
00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 4: pulling for Ursag the Australian and he was basically one

322
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Speaker 4: fight ac he mistake away for being the Flyway champion. Currently,

323
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 4: he was tied to two with Alexander Pantosia and instead

324
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 4: of separating and trying to strike in round five where

325
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,160
Speaker 4: he was winning the fight, he decided to grapple and

326
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 4: basically got controlled and lost a very narrow decision. Now

327
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Speaker 4: he's fighting a guy who's a completely different fighter in

328
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Speaker 4: Kai car France, who's a kickboxer. Kai is shorter, but

329
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,200
Speaker 4: he does have the reach advantage in the box and

330
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 4: he's I think a bit quicker. I think his quicker hands,

331
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Speaker 4: but Ersek is younger, not much younger, but younger, and

332
00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 4: I think the trajector of his career, I think he's

333
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 4: the likelier of the two to get back into title

334
00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 4: contention moving forward, because he's the much more well rounded fighter,

335
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 4: and I think he has all of the grappling upside

336
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 4: in this fight, which justifies his favoritism. He was outgrappled,

337
00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,320
Speaker 4: or at least offensively outgrappled, by Petosia, but he showed

338
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 4: phenomenal defensive grappling, and in other fights he showed that

339
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 4: he can get on top of guys and uses size

340
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,560
Speaker 4: and his strength to hold him down. I think his

341
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,760
Speaker 4: offensive grappling is super underrated, and I also think he's

342
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 4: the better boxer in this matchup. The one advantage I'd

343
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 4: give car Franz is the kicks. I mean the speed too,

344
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 4: like the hand speed. But overall, I think Ersek hits

345
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:45,960
Speaker 4: harder and I think he is more volume. He's better

346
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 4: technically in terms of the overall game, you know, not

347
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 4: just the striking, but his overall offensive grappling I think

348
00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 4: is where he wins this fight, So I'm actually interested

349
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,640
Speaker 4: by ers In ersek by submission. I think if he's

350
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,920
Speaker 4: going to cover his money line, he's likely offensive grappling,

351
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 4: And I think if he's offensive grappling, he's likely putting

352
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 4: car front in dangerous positions at some point. Kai tends

353
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 4: to give his back in every single fight. Every time

354
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 4: he stands up, he gives his back, So I think

355
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 4: a rear naked choke is always in play.

356
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 5: You know, he's fought those off in the past.

357
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 4: RAGERI Baucherin really had his back for a while and

358
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 4: Kai eventually shook him off and knocked him out. But

359
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 4: he's getting older, and as you get older in the

360
00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 4: flyway division, that speed heads to the client just to touch,

361
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 4: and fractional differences in speed make all the difference in

362
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 4: the world. So yeah, Steve versaeg minus one seventy would

363
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 4: probably bet him up to about minus one eighty.

364
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 5: And then I'm taking a look at his submission prop

365
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 5: as well.

366
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 1: Okay, you guys are on the opposite sides here, Billy's

367
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 1: gonna go to the other side on France Kai Frantz.

368
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's not a strong take for me

369
00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 7: at the current line.

370
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 6: This is when I jumped on earlier in the week

371
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 6: in my luck ratings, I got Cara France at plus

372
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 6: one sixty four.

373
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 7: I think the best you can get now is plus

374
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,760
Speaker 7: one fifty. I still like that.

375
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 6: I feel like that plus one fifty at bet MGM

376
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,280
Speaker 6: is generous Kara France side. But with that said, like

377
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,200
Speaker 6: I'm obviously anchored to my pick earlier in the week

378
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,160
Speaker 6: a bit. The thing that I like on the Kara

379
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,359
Speaker 6: France side is it's a relatively quick turnaround for ersa

380
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 6: three months. I mean, it's not horrible, but it's a

381
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 6: quick ish turnaround against a completely different fighter with the

382
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 6: exact opposite game plan as who he just fought. Plus

383
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 6: you get sometimes I think there's a little bit of

384
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 6: an emotional or motivational letdown when you lose a title fight.

385
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 6: You know, it's a big emotional thing, and then that

386
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,720
Speaker 6: didn't go the way you wanted it to. Now you're

387
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 6: thrown back in there against another young guy. The other thing, though,

388
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,080
Speaker 6: and this is really where the luck ratings came from,

389
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 6: is pretty much every media member, fan vote whatever said

390
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,760
Speaker 6: Kara France won his fight against Amer al Bazi, and

391
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 6: had he won the fight, it would have been Kara

392
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 6: France getting the title fight instead of Steve ver Sig.

393
00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:48,920
Speaker 6: I think we look at these guys a little bit

394
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 6: different if it was Kara France who lost a close

395
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,080
Speaker 6: decision in a title fight and Steve ver Sig is

396
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 6: the one on the way up trying to get there.

397
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 4: You know.

398
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,359
Speaker 6: Kara France is the veteran here. He's been in the

399
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 6: UFC a long time, more wins, so plus one fifty.

400
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,560
Speaker 6: I do like his speed and athleticism advantages. I think

401
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,160
Speaker 6: that'll still be there. I thought they were farther apart

402
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 6: in age as well, because Karen France has been in

403
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,159
Speaker 6: the UFC for what feels like ten years but like

404
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 6: eighteen months older or something. So I don't really worry

405
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,439
Speaker 6: about that angle. It's not enough to factor into my

406
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 6: handicapping at all. So plus one fifty on Kara France

407
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 6: kind of like it if you want to get you know,

408
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,160
Speaker 6: spicy with it, Karen France by knockout or Kara France

409
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 6: by finish.

410
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,879
Speaker 7: I don't think he's a great round winner. Typically he

411
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 7: needs those big moments to win rounds.

412
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,120
Speaker 6: Those tend to turn into knockouts some of the time,

413
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 6: so that's another angle. Now I don't love that, because

414
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 6: he could win the round just with damage, even if

415
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 6: he doesn't get a finish, but consider those as well.

416
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,639
Speaker 4: I should mention too. I'm continuing to wait on the

417
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 4: price movement for Ersag. He opened closer to minus q forty,

418
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 4: as Billy Brennan mentioned, you know, Carl France was closer

419
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,920
Speaker 4: to plus one seventy plus one eighty eight peak. So

420
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 4: this line continues to move in and Ersag continues to

421
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 4: become a shorter favorite.

422
00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 5: So I would hope, you know, I can get.

423
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 4: Him call minus one sixty minus one fifty even before

424
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 4: I fire.

425
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 5: But yeah, not firing right away.

426
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 4: I think if anything, this will continue to push a

427
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 4: little bit closer to a pick on price waiting for

428
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 4: best number onners.

429
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 6: Well, and if you're betting care fans, you should be

430
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 6: firing right away, ideally like three days ago. So you know,

431
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 6: if you got on early enough, this might even be

432
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 6: an arbitrage opportunity, which I might take.

433
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 7: We'll see.

434
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 6: I kind of like having something to root for on

435
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 6: these fights, but if it gets big enough, I'll probably

436
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 6: just arb it out.

437
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 7: If we get enough movement.

438
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 1: Should be a good pop in the building in Australia

439
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 1: for your seg So that should be fun to see

440
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,239
Speaker 1: how that one unfolds. How about underdogs for UFC three

441
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: oh five. What do we think of the card this week?

442
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 4: For dog Sean There's a few I like, and Billy

443
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 4: and I will get to kind of a prop way

444
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 4: to play a consensus underdog later that we think is undervalued.

445
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 4: But the two underdogs on the money line that I

446
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 4: like straight up. The first the leech Lee Jing Lang

447
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 4: plast two ninety five. He hasn't fought since September twenty

448
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 4: twenty two. That was the fight or the card where

449
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 4: he was rebooked at the last minute and forced to

450
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 4: fight Dana Rodriguez at a ten pound weight disadvantage and

451
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 4: lost a split decision that he should have won. He

452
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 4: got absolutely robbed fighting a guy who was ten pounds

453
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 4: heavier than him, and he's been out for two years

454
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 4: because he's been dealing with spinal surgery and recovery from

455
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 4: that spinal surgery. My hot take is that he may

456
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,719
Speaker 4: come back better after that spinal surgery because apparently he

457
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 4: was dealing with a lot of quiet numbness and interruptions

458
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 4: to his training previously. He had a strength disparity in

459
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 4: one of his arms due to the neck injury. Apparently

460
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 4: that's all healed up now, and he took the extra

461
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 4: time off to make sure that he was fully recovered.

462
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 5: I think there's a chance.

463
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 4: He's better, you know, or at least the feels better

464
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 4: than he did previously. The problem is the rust and

465
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 4: you know, the inactivity. But he's fighting Carlos Protest, who

466
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 4: is a low volume striker who's typically losing minutes. Protest

467
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 4: is extremely hittable. He only defends strikes at thirty nine

468
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 4: percent thus far in the UFC. He's also fought and

469
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 4: knocked out three very chinny opponents, including Trevn Giles who

470
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 4: was winning the first round against him, and Trevn Giles

471
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 4: typically wins round one and then falls off of the

472
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 4: cliff and gets knocked out. So nothing about Protest's career

473
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 4: has played out unexpectedly. He's been given gifted matchups, he's

474
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 4: been able to finish those matchups. Lee Jing Lang is

475
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 4: extremely durable striker. The way you beat Lee Jing Lang

476
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,719
Speaker 4: is out grappling him. You know, Hamsat Tramaya took him down,

477
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 4: immediately choked him out. If you have a grappling advantage,

478
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 4: you can destroy Lee jingle. But aside from that, is

479
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 4: he the second best Chinese mixed martial artist ever besides

480
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 4: playing che Le. I mean, he's phenomenally talented, great boxer,

481
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 4: really good volume.

482
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 5: This is also in his part of the world.

483
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,360
Speaker 4: You know, Protest is the one traveling further and on

484
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,439
Speaker 4: a strange body clock. And he's also a chainsmoker, Like

485
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 4: I think that's partially why Protest doesn't throw a ton

486
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: of volume, smokes a lot of cigarettes. I don't think

487
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 4: he has great stabina, but yeah, I think given the

488
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 4: stylistic matchup, the fact that Protess probably isn't going to

489
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 4: try to grapple him, Lee is very durable.

490
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 5: Process has also been knocked out. I think Lee may

491
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 5: be the more durable fighter of the two.

492
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 4: Process has been knocked out regionally, So I mean, I'd

493
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 4: love to take some leech ko, I'd love to take

494
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 4: some Leech's decision, but I think you just have to

495
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 4: play his money line at three to one. If he's

496
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 4: fine from the next surgery, you know, this final surgery, Like,

497
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 4: if that is not negatively impacting him, this line is

498
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 4: way off. I think so much of that line is

499
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 4: driven by this guy's coming off of a long layoff

500
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 4: after having spinal surgery.

501
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 5: We don't know what he looks like. I think there's

502
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 5: a chance he looks better.

503
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: So the reach now, you know, seven inch reachs screpancy,

504
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 4: tough to navigate. Protest is a very dangerous guy, but

505
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 4: he does not defend strikes. He's super hittable, he's low volume.

506
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 4: I think he needs to finish this fight to cover

507
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 4: his price tag. And Leech is a very durable guy.

508
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 4: The other fight Walter Walker. We're not gonna get way

509
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 4: ends for these matchups until about six pm Eastern times,

510
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 4: so typically fighters are weighing in like on or around

511
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 4: when we're talking about these fights on the Action Network podcast.

512
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 4: Not going to wait until way after the fact. Today,

513
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 4: by all accounts on his Instagram, Walter Walker is taking

514
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 4: advantage of the post Usada era of the UFC. He

515
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 4: looked a bit dowey in his UFCA debut at heavyweight.

516
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 4: He looks absolutely ripped for this fight. My concern is

517
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 4: that he has the grappling upside, and it seems kind

518
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 4: of evident that the UFC is going to wrestlers and

519
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 4: telling them not to wrestle anymore.

520
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 5: Not resigning.

521
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 4: Mohammed Makayev Carl Williams fight last week was a little strange,

522
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 4: and apparently it came out that Williams was told that

523
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 4: by matchmakers that they didn't like his style and that

524
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 4: he shouldn't wrestle anymore.

525
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 5: I mean, good cash on.

526
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 4: Denise, Billy, but I'm sure you noticed like Williams was

527
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: not following his OPAMO game plan there. So I get

528
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,959
Speaker 4: a little sketched out betting guys who have the grappling upside,

529
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 4: maybe because they may not grapple anymore. But Walter Walker,

530
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 4: I think still young, looks very muscular, and Junior Tava

531
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 4: whenever he gets stuck on his back is completely lost.

532
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 5: You can get stuck.

533
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 4: One takedown is the round when you're fighting Junior Tafa.

534
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 4: So if Walker does grapple, I think plus money the

535
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 4: clearest side of that matchup. But courreo is that, you know,

536
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 4: if you're interested in either of those dogs, Billy, I

537
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 4: don't know. I was against Walker in his UFCDBU, so

538
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 4: I'm trying to come back on him here a plus

539
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 4: money after the adjustment. But Leech, really, you know three

540
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 4: to one really stood out to me.

541
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, you sold me on Leach.

542
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 6: I hadn't looked or thought about that fight at all,

543
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 6: so I was glad to get someone's opinion on that.

544
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 6: I'm definitely gonna run out hit that one. I think

545
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 6: the way I would play Walker Tafa is if you're

546
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 6: on the Walker side, the fight to go to a

547
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 6: decision is a better price than Walter Walker. We're assuming

548
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 6: that for Walter Walker to win, he needs to get

549
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 6: a take down at some point. He doesn't strike me

550
00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 6: as a guy who's going to get a takedown and

551
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 6: just start throwing helbows and rolling for armbars and stuff.

552
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 7: So there's correlation.

553
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 6: There between him winning and the fight going through a decision,

554
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 6: and then obviously the extreme version of that is walk

555
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 6: her by decision at even bigger plus money.

556
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 7: So I agree with your read on it. I would

557
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 7: get a little bit more.

558
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 6: Greedy on how I try to pursue that one, sure,

559
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 6: and then the underdog I like, or one of many.

560
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 6: And I'll go quick on this because Sean, you're going

561
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 6: to touch on it later too. I like Casey and

562
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 6: Neil at plus one twenty eight. Another Luck Ratings pick

563
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 6: that I got at a much higher price earlier in

564
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 6: the week, kind of like you mentioned with Lee Jane Lang,

565
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 6: she was out for a while with a torn acl

566
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 6: came back kind of fast, lost two fights. I think

567
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 6: we're kind of at the point now where I expect

568
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 6: her to be at full strength. It's hard to call

569
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 6: that in the moment, right, like, we never know when

570
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 6: that happens. But she's been off a little over eight

571
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 6: months since her last fight, and then this is a

572
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 6: fight we expect to go to a decision more often.

573
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,239
Speaker 7: Than not, getting underdog on that. We like that.

574
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 6: And Luana Santos took this on like two ish week's notice,

575
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 6: flying across the world to Australia, cutting weight, not having

576
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 6: as long as a rehydration time after cutting weight, all

577
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 6: of those other things. I think that all favors Casey O'Neil.

578
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 6: If her athleticism is back to where it was where

579
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 6: she was, you know, she averaged over eight significant strikes

580
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 6: per minute so far in the UFC. If she has

581
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 6: that kind of athleticism again, I think she will.

582
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 7: She should be favored here. Again.

583
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 6: Wish I would have got you know, wish for anyone

584
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 6: betting this that you took it earlier in the week,

585
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 6: because we got a better number.

586
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 7: But I still like the plus one twenty five or so.

587
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,200
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588
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610
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: I'll take you straight there, Okay, making our way through

611
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 1: UFC three h five, are moving on to props. As

612
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: Billy teased, I think Sean's going to hit on Casey

613
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 1: O'Neal at some point here, but you have some other

614
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 1: looks as well.

615
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll lead off with Casey oeo. So, as Billy mentioned, Lewana,

616
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: Santo's taking the fight on short notice, traveling across the

617
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 4: world fighting a hometown fighter, though Casey O'Neil I believe

618
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 4: now training and fight ready MMA, so she had some

619
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 4: of her in Arizona since she had some travel of

620
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 4: her own to do. But she is the Australian fighter

621
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 4: by the way, her dad owns the biggest MMA promotion

622
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 4: in Australia. Who do you think is getting a close

623
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 4: decision in this fight?

624
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 3: Hmmm?

625
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 4: Now, Santos also miss wait previously against Stephanie Egger and

626
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 4: her Cardio will off In that fight, she nearly got

627
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 4: finished in round three, was slowing down dramatically. I think

628
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 4: O'Neil has much better cardio in this fight. I think

629
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 4: she has much higher decision to equity because she's likely

630
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 4: her to win rounds two and rounds three to much

631
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 4: higher clip. So I like her decision prop pre fight

632
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: at about three to one. I like her live after

633
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 4: round one much more than I like her pre fight

634
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 4: money line. I think Santos is gonna be difficult for

635
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 4: a round. I think this fight will be extremely competitive,

636
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 4: if not favor Santos in round one, but I do

637
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 4: think O'Neil takes over down the stretch at a high clip.

638
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 5: I also like the camp she's training with.

639
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 4: Fright Ready really good at giving fighters optimal game plans

640
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: and helping them to execute it. So I expect, you know,

641
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 4: the best version of her we've seen in a while.

642
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 4: I've never been particularly high on her. She's very hittable,

643
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 4: and I think Santos is going to have some success early.

644
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 4: But I do think there's a big I think, you know,

645
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: at a neutral site, you know, no travel, all that stuff. Like,

646
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 4: I still think Casey has a cardio advantage. Now you

647
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 4: factor in the travel we'll see what Santos looks like

648
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 4: on the scales because she has missed previously, so you

649
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 4: have big cardio advantage. O'Neil decision and O'Neil live after

650
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 4: round one. Herbert Burns is plus five point fifty on

651
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,719
Speaker 4: the money line. His odds to win by round one

652
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 4: submission are about twenty four hundred. I think that is

653
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,239
Speaker 4: most of his money line. He typically is a guy

654
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 4: who's dangerous for a round, gets one takedown on opponents,

655
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 4: threatens one submission, and if that doesn't lock in, he quits.

656
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 4: So Jack Jenkins round two odds are some of the

657
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 4: shortest of seen. They're even shorter than his round one odds.

658
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 4: At some books, it's unplayable. Unfortunately, his round two and

659
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 4: round three odds because the books know that is likeliest

660
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 4: where this fight finishes.

661
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 5: But if Burns wins this fight, forget his money line.

662
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: He's likely doing it in round one is round one

663
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 4: submission odds, in particular at twenty four to one.

664
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 5: I'll put five hundreds of a unit on that to

665
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 5: win a unit. I don't care.

666
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 4: It's something you have to bet. It's stupid, but that's

667
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 4: it's like ninety percent of his wing condition. I do

668
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: not get why there's such a discrepancy in those odds.

669
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 4: And then, lastly, one of my favorite fights on the

670
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 4: card mateas Gamrat and Dan Hooker. I don't want to

671
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 4: go too deep into this because I know Billy's going

672
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 4: to touch on it later, but we both had the

673
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 4: same thought with regards to Dan Hooker's points spread at

674
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 4: plus three and a half, how does he not win

675
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 4: around here? Matteas Gamrot is always in close decisions, he

676
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 4: does not land damage. In fact, I think he is

677
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 4: the exact type of fighter who the new emphasis undamage

678
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 4: hurts more than anybody else because he's a chain wrestler

679
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 4: who constantly is looking to switch and get two different

680
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 4: positions on opponents and looking to drag them back down

681
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 4: or matt return. But he's never landing damage in those exchanges.

682
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 4: And oh, by the way, he's been knocked down in

683
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 4: five consecutive fights. You get knocked down, you lose the round.

684
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 4: Dan Hooker is gonna be the guy hunting for damage here,

685
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 4: whether they're on the feet, whether he's on his back,

686
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 4: he's going to be throwing strikes up as Gamrock's controlling him.

687
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 4: He's going to be doing whatever he can to land

688
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 4: as many strikes as possible. The downside here is that

689
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 4: he hasn't fought many grapplers, and the last time he

690
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 4: did fight a grappler, he was dismantled immediately. He's typically

691
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 4: given strikers, you know, matchups that are going to lead

692
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 4: to exciting fight of the night style matchups. But Gamrock's

693
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: just going to try to wrestle him and Chane wrestle

694
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 4: him and not give him, you know, any striking range

695
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: whatsoever to work with.

696
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 5: However, I still think Cooker wins.

697
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 4: One of these rounds, one of these three rounds pretty consistently,

698
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: just because he's actually going to be the guy throwing

699
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: strikes for Gamrot is going to be the guy wrestling

700
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 4: and not really doing much damage. Also think Cooker is

701
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 4: the cardio Gamrock because of his style, because he does

702
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 4: wrestle so aggressively, tends to slow down a little bit

703
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 4: in round three. So maybe Hooker takes that third round

704
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 4: and ends up covering the plus three and a half

705
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 4: on the points spread, but getting plus money on Hooker

706
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 4: to win at least a round and knock get finished.

707
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 4: I think he's definitely a way to bet this fight

708
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 4: and then Hooker also live after round one, he should

709
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 4: have a better chance of winning rounds two and round three.

710
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 4: I think when Gamrock's fresh, it's going to be a

711
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 4: very difficult fight and very difficult for Hooker to do much.

712
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 4: But I think rounds two, round three he should work

713
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 4: his way back into the fight.

714
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: Billy prop market for you UFC three zero five.

715
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm gonna touch on a couple other ones real

716
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 6: quick and then get back to the Dan Hooker talk,

717
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 6: which is the theme of this podcast. Opening about Deweye

718
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 6: Nicol inside the distance of plus two hundred against Jesus Aguilar,

719
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 6: I did the full fight breakdown of this one. I

720
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 6: knew nothing about Stewart Nicol coming in no fights on

721
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 6: fight pass. Gotta go to YouTube if you even want

722
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 6: to see him do his work. Usually not a great sign,

723
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 6: but I was very impressed by what he saw. He's

724
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 6: a second degree Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt. He won

725
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 6: his first few career fights by submission, had a very

726
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 6: tough decision and then has ground and pounded everyone since.

727
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 6: And if you click on his Q and A on

728
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 6: UFC dot Com, he talks about he realized that you

729
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 6: can't just hunt for submissions because if you don't get it,

730
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 6: you end up tired, you burn out, and at a

731
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 6: high level, those submissions aren't there. He's fighting Jezus Aguilar,

732
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 6: who loves to just latch on for low percentage submissions

733
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 6: and hope he gets them with no real plan beat.

734
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 6: Aguilar is notable. He's the guy with the fifty two

735
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 6: entreats that we've teased a little bit on this podcast

736
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 6: in the past.

737
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 7: He knocked out Shannon.

738
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 6: Ross, but then so did everybody else, which took a

739
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 6: little bit of shine off at that one controversial split

740
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 6: decision went over from Taro's Mondonsa. His grappling is literally

741
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 6: just hope you shoot in on me and I'm going

742
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 6: to try to squeeze this guillotine and hope I get it.

743
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 6: If you're got short, little strong arms, that works really

744
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 6: well against low level pros, amateurs, whatever. Once we get

745
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 6: to like purple belt jiu jitsu and up, people know

746
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 6: how to defend guillotines. It's not that hard for most

747
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 6: high level grapplers unless you're truly elite at it.

748
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 7: I don't think he is.

749
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 6: I think Aguilar is going to put himself on his

750
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 6: back looking for those keillotines, which then gives Nicole top position.

751
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 6: He can work his newfound grounding pound. He's the way

752
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 6: better overall submission artist, and we're getting two to one

753
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 6: on him to get a finish, so love that one.

754
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 7: The other one. We gotta do it.

755
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 6: Tay Toyvasa by knockout at plus two seventy, that should

756
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 6: be his money line.

757
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 7: It should just be the same number. He's not gonna

758
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 7: win anything else.

759
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 6: Rosenstroke a little bit more technical, better pace, I think,

760
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 6: even though he's patient, but he picks his spots better.

761
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 6: If it goes to a decision that's probably Gyresenil. Tay

762
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 6: Toyvasa didn't come and sink him drink a shoey. See

763
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 6: what kind of fun song he walks out to is

764
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 6: plus two seventy. Let's have some fun guys come on.

765
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 6: And then finally, and this goes really well with what

766
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 6: Sean was saying. Dan Hooker by knockout plus eight hundred,

767
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 6: I think even plus nine hundred at points, as Sean

768
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 6: pointed out, Gamrock has been knocked down, and I think

769
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 6: it's four of his last five. Physiev didn't knock him

770
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 6: out down, but that was because he tore his acl

771
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 6: before he had.

772
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 7: A chance to.

773
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 6: Gam Rock maybe the best pure grappler and the men's

774
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 6: vision in MMA right now he's multiple time ADCC winner.

775
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 6: He doesn't transition between striking and grappling quite as quick

776
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 6: as everyone else, and you'll see it.

777
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 7: A lot of his knockdowns are you can see in

778
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 7: his brain.

779
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 6: He goes, Okay, it's grapple time now, and he kind

780
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 6: of drops his hands, shifts his stance a little bit

781
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 6: and lunges in awkwardly, and that's when he gets clipped.

782
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 6: I can't believe he didn't die. The way Benil dry

783
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 6: Usch hit him like that was one of the biggest

784
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 6: knockdowns I've ever seen not turn into a knockout. Gamrock

785
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 6: also struggles against taller, longer fighters because that period between Okay,

786
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 6: I'm striking and Okay, I'm grappling is extended when you

787
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 6: also have to close the distance. I think Dan Hooker

788
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 6: has a five inch reach advantage despite them being about

789
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 6: the same height. That was what caught him with Jaylen

790
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 6: Turner and Gamrot when we're going the other direction from

791
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 6: grappling to striking, he doesn't flip that switch quite as

792
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 6: quick as some of these elite guys. Dan Hooker is

793
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 6: a well rounded mixed martial artist. He's not a grappler

794
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 6: who started doing this. He's not a kickboxer who started

795
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 6: doing this. Mate fighter. I think he's got a good

796
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 6: shot at catching him on the break in between, you know,

797
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 6: transition periods like that, and he's just got to hit

798
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 6: him once. It's kind of like, you know, Sean and

799
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 6: I doing our baseball stuff. All of our bets are

800
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 6: kind of based on stuff regressing, and you would think

801
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 6: knockdowns will eventually regress into knockouts. That chin can't be

802
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 6: good forever. I'm gonna just gonna jump ahead of you

803
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 6: a little bit here, Brendon. My best bet is also

804
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 6: Dan Hooker plus three and a half with the exact

805
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 6: same lodger. You're basically getting even money on Dan Hooker

806
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 6: to punch him hard once because you win the round.

807
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 6: Gamrad is not a guy who's going to pick up

808
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,280
Speaker 6: ten eighth with his style, So that's my best bet.

809
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 6: Sprinkle on the prop of Hooker knockout. Fully agree with

810
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 6: Sean's angle, and that's it for me.

811
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 4: Watch out for the knees too. Dan Hooker is really

812
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 4: nasty knees when guys try to wrestle him. He doesn't

813
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 4: get to use them much because guys do not try

814
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 4: to wrestle him often, but it is one of the best.

815
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 5: Tools in his skill set.

816
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 4: I think he could potentially catch gam Rock with the

817
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 4: knee coming in as well. Gamrad has been knocked down

818
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 4: five times in the UFC. It was his debut against

819
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 4: Karamta Odds where he lost a close, competitive split decision,

820
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 4: and there was a knockout in that fight which may

821
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 4: have ultimately swung the decision against him. So yeah, knockdown

822
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 4: five times and I believe eight UFC fights, none of

823
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 4: them have led to a knockout. He does seem to

824
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 4: recover pretty well, but regression like at some point he

825
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 4: may get a little bit hurt from one of these

826
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 4: knockdowns more than the others and may knock get up.

827
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 4: So I think Dan Hooker is a decent chance of

828
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 4: cashing him. I like that knockout prop as well. Billy

829
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 4: on top of the BLUs three.

830
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,439
Speaker 1: Hunt all right, sean best bet for you, And since

831
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 1: Billy brought up baseball, this is not This is has nothing.

832
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 3: To do with the pitcher Birds song, but a different Song.

833
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 5: Yeah songkan On.

834
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 4: Another Chinese fighter on this card, another guy fighting in

835
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 4: his time zone and is preferred part of the world,

836
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 4: and getting I believe a very soft matchup in Ricky Glenn.

837
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 5: Glenn has twenty.

838
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 4: Seven of his thirty two career fights at one hundred

839
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 4: and forty five pounds. He moved up to lightweight because

840
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 4: he was struggling with injuries. Didn't think he cut the

841
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 4: weight anymore. He was knocked out in the first three

842
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 4: minutes of each of his past two lightweight bouts. Now

843
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 4: he's moving up to one seventy to face the guy

844
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 4: who's knocked down Ian Gary. Songs first three knockdowns, and

845
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 4: you know, Billy talking about the knockout regression. Songs first

846
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 4: three knockdowns in the UFC led to finishes, his last

847
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 4: two have not. He knocked down Badoya, he knocked down

848
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 4: Ian Gary, didn't finish either of those guys. He clearly

849
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 4: has power. He's clearly going up against the guy whose

850
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 4: chin cannot handle the power at lightweight let alone, probably

851
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 4: cannot handle the power at wal three. You know, sometimes

852
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 4: you see these guys going up and you're like, all right,

853
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 4: knock cutting weight. Maybe he'll handle the power a little

854
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 4: bit better. Glenn moved up because of the injuries. He

855
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 4: didn't move up because he was having trouble making one

856
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 4: hundred and forty five pounds, and he proved he couldn't

857
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 4: handle the power at one fifty five. So what's it

858
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 4: going to look like at one seventy I think Song

859
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 4: not only to win by knockout a plus one forty five.

860
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 4: I made that line plus one twenty five on the

861
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 4: money line, I think is interesting at minus one seventy five. However,

862
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 4: you know he's not the highest volume guy, and there's

863
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 4: a chance that Glenn just stays on the outside and

864
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 4: kicks him a bunch. And if Song doesn't get the KO,

865
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 4: I don't really want to lose a minus one seventy

866
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 4: five in the money line because I bet a guy

867
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 4: who's a low volume striker. You know that is what

868
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 4: happens when you bet low volume strikers on the money line.

869
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 4: They don't throw enough and they lose decisions. So I

870
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: think his KO prop is the better bet, but his

871
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 4: finish only line at minus two forty five. I made

872
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 4: that line closer to minus three fifty. Glenn doesn't have

873
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 4: much power. I know he knocked out Jaquim Silva a

874
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 4: couple fights back. He does not have much power, does

875
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 4: not have a crazy submission game. I don't really see

876
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 4: him finishing this fight more than ten percent of the time,

877
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 4: you know, fifteen percent of the time, I think is

878
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 4: where I put his actual odds, and Song is like

879
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 4: forty five to fifty percent if he does win the fight.

880
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 4: So yeah, I made his finish only odds about minus

881
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 4: three fifty, and you could bet that closer to minus

882
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 4: two to fifty. So I'll probably end up laying the

883
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 4: juice on that rather than laying the juice on his

884
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 4: money line.

885
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 5: And I'll take some knockout prop as well.

886
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 3: All right, excellent, there's your breakdown for UFC three oh five.

887
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 3: We've got one more pod next week. I will not

888
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 3: be here, will be Sean and Billy. We have a

889
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 3: special guest.

890
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: Joining us next week. I don't know if we want

891
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: to give that away just yet.

892
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 4: I'm sure we'll yeah, I don't know if we're allowed to,

893
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 4: but uh, joining us next week.

894
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 1: I like this, how we're walking the fine line of

895
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 1: what we're allowed and not allowed to do.

896
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 3: That's always fun.

897
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 5: And this is guy's good hair.

898
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 1: I could say that Okay, special guests joining the UFC

899
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: Betting Preview on the Action Network podcast next week, So

900
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: be on the lookout.

901
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 3: It should be a lot of fun. I know Sean

902
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 3: and Billy are looking forward to that and a particular conversation.

903
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 5: It's a guest.

904
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: I mean, we've had Dan Stupp as a guest. Does

905
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: that count as a guest? And Dan's a contributor with us, right,

906
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: We've had Brian Vonseca. No disrespect to those two, but yeah,

907
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: we've got a got.

908
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 7: Air from those two though.

909
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 5: I think this guy could be I'm pretty confident.

910
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 3: Oh, Billy the Dagger there, all right.

911
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 7: I think I've got shaved head too. I'm all right.

912
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for a special guest joining

913
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: the UFC Betting Preview next week for Seanzarella and Billy Ward.

914
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 1: Be sure to follow these guys in the Action Network app.

915
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 1: We did a long breakdown of the main event, but

916
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 1: important if you can. I know, it's a really like

917
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:19,959
Speaker 1: you're saying, it's a tight window to try and bet

918
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 1: live and follow guys in the app. But it might

919
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: be a good time to, if you haven't done so already,

920
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: to follow those guys and try to have the app

921
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: open and available while you're watching.

922
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 3: That's a big ask, but yeah, Main Event.

923
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: Main Main Card is on pay per view in Australia

924
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: Saturday night.

925
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 7: Very good.

926
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in to the Action Network podcast presented

927
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: by bet MGM.

928
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 3: If you FC betting preview Vesta Bluck talk to again

929
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 3: next week.

930
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

931
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

932
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

933
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 5: Gambler