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Speaker 1: What two three breaks and.

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Speaker 2: In the middle of the Hello's football.

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Speaker 1: Down in the one yard line? About that?

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Speaker 2: That is the ultimate k and.

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Speaker 3: We are underway.

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another episode of the Action

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Speaker 1: Network at NFL podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in

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Speaker 1: chief of Fantasy Labs, and with me for a special

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Speaker 1: mailbag episode for everyone out there grinding fantasy football even

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Speaker 1: though it is the off season. We have Sean Corner

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Speaker 1: and Chris Raymond. Shawn is the Action Network director of

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Speaker 1: Predictive Analytics in one of the top end season fantasy

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Speaker 1: pros rankers for the past half decade, and Chris is

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Speaker 1: a senior editor and analyst of the Action Network and

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Speaker 1: a co host of I'll Take That Bet on ESPN Plus.

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Speaker 1: You can follow them in the Action Network app at

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Speaker 1: the Underscore Odds Maker and Chris Raymond's the app of

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Speaker 1: course to get real time odd to intrack your bets. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: we are starting to get into the podcast groove. Last

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Speaker 1: week we released our top two hundred fantasy football rankings

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Speaker 1: at the Action Network and we preview them on the

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Speaker 1: show this week. We are giving the people what they

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Speaker 1: want in answering all their fantasy questions. How are you

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Speaker 1: guys doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing good.

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Speaker 4: I just I just put my chair on on stiff

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Speaker 4: so it's not gonna hopefully it's not squeaking around all show.

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Speaker 4: So if you if you guys hear some squeaky chair,

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm really excited about about a player because

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Speaker 4: my chair is kind of it's kind of thirty right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, how is your chair over there?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I can't.

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Speaker 5: I can't commit to that. I still have the same

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Speaker 5: chair from last year, but I will be getting one

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Speaker 5: before the start of the season.

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Speaker 1: Was it there supposed to be a chair upgrade?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, it's too soon for that though.

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Speaker 5: I guess right you know, right about now is when

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Speaker 5: I was planning getting it.

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Speaker 3: So this might be the last pod with this chair.

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Speaker 3: Who knows.

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Speaker 1: Oh that would be a good good way to send

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Speaker 1: out the chair, send it out in high style. Okay,

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Speaker 1: here's a question. Do you prefer it when I ask

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Speaker 1: directly how's it going? Like Sean, how's it going? And

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Speaker 1: then Chris how's it going? So that there's more direction?

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Speaker 1: Or do you prefer it when I just throw up

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Speaker 1: a question like a jump ball and let you two

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Speaker 1: compete to fill the empty audio space.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like to jump all because you know, whoever

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Speaker 5: has the most going on can answer first.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: You know, I really had this chair thing going for me,

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Speaker 4: and I felt the need to just kind of jump in,

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Speaker 4: you know, got my up Silver Sean. But I'm sure

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Speaker 4: he'll be back next week with something equally interesting.

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Speaker 1: I hope he doesn't have anything less interesting than chair. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's let's to it start hitting these questions. We have

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Speaker 1: a lot of questions to get through, all right, Number

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Speaker 1: one from Gavin, I have the number one pick. Is

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Speaker 1: Saquon really the guy one of you?

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Speaker 3: See?

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Speaker 1: This is why I asked.

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Speaker 2: I thought that was just for the opening question.

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Speaker 3: I don't know ask This is why I asked.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to see.

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Speaker 2: Okay, yes, is the guy? I don't see why not.

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Speaker 4: I think we'd be fine with Zeke there at number

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Speaker 4: one as well, because I think that there's a few

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Speaker 4: teams out there that still have shown a relative commitment

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Speaker 4: to wanting to feed their backs, and I think Saquon

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Speaker 4: and Zeke kind of topped that list. Christian McCaffrey, I

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Speaker 4: don't think it is a horrible choice there, but I

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Speaker 4: think they might want to.

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Speaker 2: Scale his work gold Back a tiny bit. And then

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Speaker 2: there are some other guys that I.

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Speaker 4: Think have that RB one overall upside that I wouldn't

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Speaker 4: call you crazy if you took number one. It's just

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Speaker 4: a little bit more uncertainty, guys like David Johnson and

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Speaker 4: Wa'veon Bell who have kind of showed that in the past.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I agree. If I have first pick, I'm

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Speaker 5: taking Barkley. I'm not really tinkering with it too much

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Speaker 5: right now. You might consider Zeke, but you know, if

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Speaker 5: I'm given the first pick, I'm just taking Barkley at

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Speaker 5: this point in the season.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I will say Ravon to kind of push back.

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Speaker 1: In our rankings, you actually have Zeke ahead of Saquon.

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Speaker 1: You care to address that at all?

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Speaker 2: So it's for me, it's just they're really equal. It's

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Speaker 2: just Zeke.

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Speaker 4: I think his touchdown of it's still a little bit greater,

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Speaker 4: So he's just kind of his projection is kind of

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Speaker 4: maybe a couple of tenths ahead of Barkley. But that,

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Speaker 4: you know, that's nothing where I would you know, really

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Speaker 4: worry about. Like I'd said, I don't sweat in general,

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Speaker 4: this is my advice. Don't sweat the number one pick,

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Speaker 4: especially if you at first overall, like it's literally the

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Speaker 4: least important pick of the whole draft, probably for you,

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Speaker 4: because if you do with one, it it's it's going

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Speaker 4: to be more so just bad luck than anything you

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Speaker 4: could have predicted.

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Speaker 2: Guys are up there for a reason.

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Speaker 1: All right, what are the projections by the pros on

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Speaker 1: girly Sean?

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Speaker 5: I want to kick this to you, all right, since

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Speaker 5: that's such a specific question, I'll just tell you what

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Speaker 5: I have right now for his projections. So I have

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Speaker 5: two hundred and forty carries, one thousand and sixty five

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Speaker 5: rushing yards, eleven touchdowns, fifty one receptions, four hundred and

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Speaker 5: fifty receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns, so that you

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Speaker 5: know he comes in as my six running back with those,

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Speaker 5: but I then advocating to not draft him there just

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Speaker 5: because there's so much hidden downside and drafting Gurley right now.

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Speaker 5: You know, the the Rams kept Malcolm Brown. They drafted

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Speaker 5: Darryl Henterson the third round, so you know his knee

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Speaker 5: might not be one hundred percent this year, so they

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Speaker 5: could scale back his carry significantly or even mess time

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Speaker 5: if it flares up during the season. So you know,

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Speaker 5: kind of going back to what Raybaum was saying, your

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Speaker 5: first pick shouldn't be but there shouldn't be any massive

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Speaker 5: downside at all. You're just trying to take high upside guys,

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Speaker 5: and you know, Gurley is unfortunately one of those guys

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Speaker 5: with just a really low floor. So I'm pretty much

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Speaker 5: avoiding him in the first round.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 5: You know, having said that, over the summer, you know

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Speaker 5: that the drafts, his ADP might fall somewhere in the

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Speaker 5: second round, and you know, I think around then I

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Speaker 5: would consider taking him.

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Speaker 3: But for right now, my medium projections.

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Speaker 5: Fro him having the first round, but I'm still passing

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Speaker 5: on him due to this this hidden floor he has.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and as you mentioned, the Rams drafted Darryl Henderson

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Speaker 1: actually traded up to draft him, so that's not a

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Speaker 1: great sign there, Chris. Any thoughts on this, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I'll just give MI because I think, you know, Sean

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Speaker 4: gave his full season projection, so I'll just give my

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Speaker 4: per game one since I think there will be a

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Speaker 4: lot of you know, there's a lot of different ways

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Speaker 4: you could project, you know, games missed for every player.

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Speaker 4: So minor fourteen point one carries sixty one yards point

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Speaker 4: five six rushing touchdowns, four point five targets, three point

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Speaker 4: three catches, twenty eight receiving yards, and point seventeen receiving touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: So depending on how many games you project, that will

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Speaker 4: kind of, you know, give you your your full season.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, Daryl Henderson rookie running backs drafted in the

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Speaker 4: third round over the last since twenty eleven or averaging

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Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty seven touches per season, So that

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Speaker 4: kind of gives you an idea of how much Henderson

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Speaker 4: could kind of cut into that work. But I think

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Speaker 4: Malcolm Brown was brought back on that offer sheet matched

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Speaker 4: more so as a direct backup to Gurwy because McVeigh

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Speaker 4: kind of talked about working out all of the change

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Speaker 4: of pacebacks at receiver and Henderson was one of those

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Speaker 4: guys and he said he wanted to use Dunbar in

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Speaker 4: that kind of role.

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Speaker 2: He just didn't. He never stayed healthy.

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Speaker 4: So that what that tells me that, you know, Henderson's

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Speaker 4: going to be kind of not necessarily just a direct backup,

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Speaker 4: but also that Kavon Austin is trash.

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Speaker 1: Are Hopkins and Adams the number one and number two

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Speaker 1: wide receiver?

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Speaker 3: Yes, And I don't think the order really matters.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if I had one hundred drafts, I'd probably

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Speaker 5: go with Hopkins fifty three percent of the time and

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Speaker 5: Adam's forty seven percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: Ideally, I want to get a pick.

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Speaker 5: Later in the first round and just get whichever guy

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Speaker 5: falls to me and then be in better position to

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Speaker 5: snag Travis Kelcey. But I mean, again, with the first round,

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Speaker 5: you can't really go wrong.

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Speaker 3: With these guys. But if if I had to lean

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Speaker 3: on any particular one to be Hopkins for now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Ray BONDI feel the same way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty much fifty to fifty for He's kind

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Speaker 4: of the same thing with running back. It's there's no

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Speaker 4: reason to sweat that pick too much. I think Hopkins

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Speaker 4: has shown what we can do with poor quarterbacks. And

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Speaker 4: then the advantage of Adams is that I still don't

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Speaker 4: think Rogers is going to trust many of these guys,

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Speaker 4: even you know, even in the year two. I mean,

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Speaker 4: he's all about trust, and he just look at how

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Speaker 4: much he targeted Adams, especially in the red zone, compared

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Speaker 4: to how much he targeted his other receivers.

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Speaker 3: It was just not even close.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have Beckham, I think is my number two guy.

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Speaker 1: That's probably a little aggressive. I might need to rethink

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Speaker 1: that a little bit, but I'm still pretty bullish on him.

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Speaker 1: I think, I think with Hopkins and Beckham is the

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Speaker 1: top two guys.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how far along you are in your

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Speaker 4: projections of like games missed, but Beckham is a little

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Speaker 4: bit I think of a greater injury risk than it

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Speaker 4: seems than those guys.

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Speaker 2: Ye have any opinion on that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he is.

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Speaker 5: He definitely is because he's I mean a lot of

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Speaker 5: his injuries have been soft tissue, right, so you know,

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Speaker 5: things like that you would consider to be more reoccurring

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Speaker 5: than others. I'm just waiting for Raybond's injury study to

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Speaker 5: have a final say on that, but yeah, he just

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Speaker 5: he seems to have just a little more risk than

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Speaker 5: these guys. So I mean he's still, you know, could

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Speaker 5: be the number two receivers. So I saw my top five,

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Speaker 5: but I just rather have these stable guys that have

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Speaker 5: you know, proven over the last couple of years they

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Speaker 5: can stay healthy as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you's hired in my per game than my season

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Speaker 2: season one?

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Speaker 1: All right, who is the one player you expect to

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Speaker 1: surprise everybody?

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Speaker 3: And me?

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Speaker 1: This year's fantasy Darling I last year's version of Philip

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Speaker 1: Lindsay or Patrick Mahomes. I tell you what, let's this

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Speaker 1: is a good question. Let's save this one for the

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Speaker 1: end of the show. That's what we call a tease

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Speaker 1: in the business. Okay, next one, who is the one

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Speaker 1: first rounder by ADP you're looking to fade. I'm assuming

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Speaker 1: Sean for you. That's Gurley Raymond. Do you have any

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Speaker 1: opinion on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, that's what I was gonna say too.

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Speaker 2: It's Girley.

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Speaker 4: I wrote about this in my ten Players I'm fading

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Speaker 4: over at the Action Network dot Com slash NFL, and

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Speaker 4: you know, he was the first guy. I just think that,

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Speaker 4: as Sean mentioned, he's the one guy that you could

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Speaker 4: really pick out.

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Speaker 2: That has a lower floor that we're aware of.

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Speaker 4: You know, every running back has a certain type of

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Speaker 4: floor because of their they're the great their position with

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Speaker 4: the greatest amount of injury risks, they have the most

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Speaker 4: high impact collisions. But Gurley, beyond that, just has a

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Speaker 4: little more because we know about the knee condition. We

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Speaker 4: see the rams kind of taking precautions getting guys in

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Speaker 4: place behind them, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, kind of in that same vein and this one

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Speaker 1: is asked from Matt in Ceder Rapids. A really good

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Speaker 1: looking guy I've heard. Who is the one second rounder

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Speaker 1: you want to draft?

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Speaker 3: For me?

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Speaker 1: It would be you know, it.

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Speaker 3: Always depends in your draft position.

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Speaker 5: You can't really you know, whatever you're slotted at. You

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Speaker 5: kind of have a bucket of three or four guys

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Speaker 5: you can actually have access to. But the guy I'm

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Speaker 5: hoping for it almost any point in round two is

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Speaker 5: Travis Kelcey. I've talked about it before, but you know,

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Speaker 5: the drop off at tight end is so severe that

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Speaker 5: you know, I like to lock up one of the

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Speaker 5: top three tight ends, and you know I have Travis

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Speaker 5: Kelcey a little bit higher than Zach Ertz too, So

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Speaker 5: I think Kelsey's almost in a tier by himself.

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Speaker 3: So locking in tight end in round two I think

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Speaker 3: is a huge advantage. So he's He's the one guy

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Speaker 3: I would hope would fault me at any point in

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Speaker 3: round two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're going to talk about Kelsey a

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Speaker 1: little bit more later. Raybond, you have any thoughts on that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree.

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Speaker 4: I think that you know, this is a year where

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Speaker 4: you can get away with that tight end. But and

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Speaker 4: if any, if any of the running backs that are

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Speaker 4: normally in the first round happen to drop a David

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Speaker 4: Johnson even a Joe Mixon, like I like getting that

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Speaker 4: second back that I think can kind of be in

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Speaker 4: the top six or having that top.

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Speaker 2: Six upside as well. So those are the two guys

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Speaker 2: that I look at.

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Speaker 1: Sean, you mentioned that your ability to draft guys in

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Speaker 1: the second round is pretty much dependent on where you

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Speaker 1: are slotted, and so that fits with our next question.

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Speaker 1: If you can choose your draft position and a twelve

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Speaker 1: man snake redraft league, which position do you want to

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Speaker 1: draft in?

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Speaker 5: So that's a great question. Who asked that question, by

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Speaker 5: the way, because I love that question. Mark McDonald, Yeah,

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Speaker 5: fantastic question. Now I really don't care where I draft.

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Speaker 5: I have a strategy from each spot, but if I

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Speaker 5: were to choose one, I would say pick number four.

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Speaker 3: This year.

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Speaker 5: The first round, you basically get whatever top four running

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Speaker 5: back falls to you. I'd be fine with any of them.

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Speaker 5: And then you know, in the second round you can

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Speaker 5: either get you know, one of the top wide receivers

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Speaker 5: that you know make it to you, or potentially Travis Kelcey.

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Speaker 5: Round three, you know, if you miss Travis Kelce, you

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Speaker 5: can snag one of the top three tight ends or

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Speaker 5: another wide receiver one, and then round four you can

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Speaker 5: get a second you know, wide receiver one type guy

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Speaker 5: or running back number two that falls to you. So

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Speaker 5: I just think, you know, after the first four rounds,

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Speaker 5: you're pretty much playing with house money. I think that's

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Speaker 5: a pretty complete team, and you can make more aggressive

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Speaker 5: picks later in the draft because I think just having

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Speaker 5: that fourth pick puts you in position to, like, you know,

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Speaker 5: really snag the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends

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Speaker 5: that I'm looking for this year.

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Speaker 1: There was some fantastic swivel action going on with the

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Speaker 1: chair Sean when you were answering that question, so I

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Speaker 1: could tell that was one you were really excited about

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Speaker 1: Raymond anything there.

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Speaker 4: I like pick eight because I actually think that the

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Speaker 4: top eight running backs there is not much or my

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Speaker 4: top eight running backs, there's not much as much of

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Speaker 4: the difference as we think, and I like to be

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Speaker 4: able to so I want to be able to get

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Speaker 4: close as close to that turn as possible to then be.

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Speaker 2: Able to grab a guy on that back half who falls.

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Speaker 4: And then kind of do it again in round three

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Speaker 4: and four, so I have you know saquon Zeke McCaffrey, Kamara,

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Speaker 4: but I also like you know Melvin Borden, Le'Veon Bell,

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Speaker 4: James Connor, and David Johnson just as essentially just as

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Speaker 4: much as those guys. So I'm fine anywhere up to

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Speaker 4: pick eight, so i can get one of those one

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Speaker 4: of those eight.

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Speaker 1: All right, If you go wide receiver wide receiver in

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Speaker 1: the first two rounds, who is your must have running

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Speaker 1: back in the third round, I'll.

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Speaker 2: Say two, Damian Williams and Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 4: Williams because I think that he is going to have

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Speaker 4: essentially the same role he had down the stretch last season.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City always kind of has it tries to work

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Speaker 4: in its backup just a little bit, whether it's in

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Speaker 4: a pass blockings pass catching role like a Sharkandrick West

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Speaker 4: or or a more traditional role like a Spencer Ware.

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Speaker 4: I'm always going to work in that guy with the

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Speaker 4: Carlos high but I think Williams will be that weak

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Speaker 4: guy and he's proven effective. And then I think Aaron

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Speaker 4: Jones kind of showed last year that he could do

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Speaker 4: it all, he could be a feature back, and now

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Speaker 4: at the new coaching staff. I think they are going

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Speaker 4: to be mindful of not making the same mistakes staff

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Speaker 4: that Mike McCarthy made, which was to kind of banish

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Speaker 4: Jones to the bench for long stretches and not playing

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Speaker 4: as much as they needed.

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Speaker 2: So those are the two guys.

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Speaker 1: Sean anything there.

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Speaker 5: No, I mean, if I had my way, I'm not

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Speaker 5: taking my first running back in around three, as you know,

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Speaker 5: that's sort of where the frozen pund begins. But I

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Speaker 5: do like all these running backs in round three, in

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Speaker 5: round four, they're just all the same to me. So

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Speaker 5: I'm more willing to kind of either grab the last

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Speaker 5: tight end available or another you know, you can get

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Speaker 5: aj Green, Keenan Allen type receivers in round three, so

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Speaker 5: I might be, oh, well, this is if I've taken

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Speaker 5: two I receivers. But I probably try to strategize my

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Speaker 5: drafts where I'm not panicking trying to draft my first

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Speaker 5: running back in round three. So I'm not one to

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Speaker 5: kind of plan out in detail what positions I'm taking

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Speaker 5: in rounds. I'm just going to take whatever you guys

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Speaker 5: fall to me, so I let the draft come to me.

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Speaker 5: So but you know, overall, I'm you know, kind of

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Speaker 5: shouting away from running backs in round three and four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah cool, yeah, go ahead, right.

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Speaker 4: Oh, So I was just going to say, you know,

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Speaker 4: going off what Sean said about not planning it out.

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Speaker 4: I think that's important because I think you never know.

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Speaker 4: You know, ADP is average draft position for a reason.

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Speaker 4: Most ADP listings also come with the men in the

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Speaker 4: max pick. I think you want to pay a lot

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Speaker 4: more attention to that if you're really trying to craft

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Speaker 4: a detailed plan, because a lot could change depending you know,

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Speaker 4: it's not just going to go according to the average.

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Speaker 4: And I will say if you are looking to kind

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Speaker 4: of go round by round and plan things out, I

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Speaker 4: would suggest a more helpful and effective strategy for doing

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Speaker 4: so and really understanding the value and the draft is

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Speaker 4: starting from the bottom, starting from the last pick, and

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Speaker 4: looking at the values you like the most at that

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Speaker 4: pick and going the opposite way, because that'll show you

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Speaker 4: kind of give you that foresight as to what will

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Speaker 4: be available later in the draft and what you feel

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Speaker 4: comfortable with and working your way backwards. I think that's

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Speaker 4: always helped me a lot more than trying to start

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Speaker 4: from round one, where it's kind of just a lot

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Speaker 4: more cut and drying really gaining as much value from

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Speaker 4: going over that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and just to kind of put a bow on this,

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Speaker 1: I like Sean's idea of letting the draft kind of

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Speaker 1: fall to you taking the players who are falling. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's similar to like in sports betting, getting closing line value,

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Speaker 1: where you're just taking the discounts that the market gives

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Speaker 1: you wherever you can, as long as you're still doing

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Speaker 1: it kind of within the confines of good team building,

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Speaker 1: where you're not just taking you know, like tight ends

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Speaker 1: for five straight rounds or something like that, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: where it fits in with the constructs of your league.

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Speaker 1: Kind Of going off of that, there's a question here,

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Speaker 1: I think a good question. Looking at the options that

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Speaker 1: are available at different points in the draft, are there

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Speaker 1: any instances where you're feeling like you should try to

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Speaker 1: draft a certain number of players for a particular position

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Speaker 1: by given round, for example, thinking you should draft three

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Speaker 1: running backs by the sixth round or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely not.

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Speaker 5: Again, kind of goes back to over saying you don't

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Speaker 5: want to pigeonhole yourself like that. So by letting the

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Speaker 5: draft come to you, you know you're going to kind

401
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Speaker 5: of deviate from your original plan, which is totally fine.

402
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Speaker 5: You're gonna have to be able to sort of oddboult

403
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Speaker 5: the line. But you know, after round six I would

404
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Speaker 5: be kind of scared if I only had like one

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Speaker 5: running back. So running backs a position where I'm basically

406
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Speaker 5: loading up early and often on it. So in general,

407
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Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna have two or three running backs by

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Speaker 5: round six, but that's not something I'm planning necessarily.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 4: I think the only position I'd say it kind of

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Speaker 4: dictates itself because I think waiting on quarterback is, as

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Speaker 4: we've talked about on the last episode, a really a

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Speaker 4: good strategy this year, as it is most years. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I don't really want to have a quarterback before probably

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Speaker 4: the double digit round, So that kind of dictates that

416
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Speaker 4: I'm going to have, you know, nine rounds of flex

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Speaker 4: eligible guys, probably at least one tight end.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I agree with Sean.

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Speaker 4: I think there is a drop off and running back

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Speaker 4: around that after the frozen ponds here. You know, that's

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Speaker 4: even if you still don't have two running backs, at

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Speaker 4: least the guys that are going to fill your starting.

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Speaker 2: Lineup, you probably want to be a little bit worried there.

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Speaker 4: But aside from that, no, I think you have to

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Speaker 4: let the draft come to you, as Sean said, because

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Speaker 4: your league might just be, oh, we're gonna take all

427
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Speaker 4: running backs, and what if thirty straight running backs come

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Speaker 4: off the board. I mean, you could get like Antonio

429
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Speaker 4: Brown in the fifth round, which I'm sure Freedom would

430
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Speaker 4: be through with, and you have to take that. So

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Speaker 4: I think I think it really that's that's the key

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Speaker 4: is just went in the draft, come to don't worry.

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Speaker 1: We are going to talk about Antonio and Brown later.

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Speaker 1: I am sure. Okay, next question from Harvard grad with

435
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Speaker 1: Harvard misspelled, which is really nice there. Given last season

436
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 1: was so pass heavy, are you changing your strategy from

437
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Speaker 1: overloading on running backs to snagging some wide receivers?

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Speaker 5: So, I mean, I wasn't confused that running back was

439
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 5: a disaster last year. It's going to be a disaster

440
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Speaker 5: this year too. But you know it's so valuable that

441
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Speaker 5: that's why I plan accordingly. So, like I said, I'm

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Speaker 5: drafting early and often running backs. I don't draft the

443
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,879
Speaker 5: kicker defense to add two more running backs. Usually, if

444
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 5: you look at my team's my entire bench is just

445
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 5: a bunch of backup running backs, so you prepare for that,

446
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 5: you know, Game of Thrones style of chaos during the season.

447
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 5: Having said that, though, I do want to get you know,

448
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 5: at least one or possibly two wide receiver ones this year.

449
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,399
Speaker 3: They're just more stable, more consistent. You can rely on

450
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:13,360
Speaker 3: them the entire year.

451
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 5: But you know, when it comes to running backs in

452
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 5: the draft, all the all the techniques I have, you know,

453
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 5: they usually pan out around like Week five or six

454
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 5: when running backs start going down. So I do like

455
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 5: to load up on more wide receivers to you know,

456
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 5: fill out my flex position early in the season and

457
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 5: then you know, as running back the turnover happens, you

458
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 5: can start using them in your flex. So I think

459
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 5: running backs position that gained strength during the season, and

460
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 5: that's why you saw teams in the championship round, you know,

461
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 5: starting guys like Jeff Wilson, Gus Edwards, CJ. Anderson and stuff.

462
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 5: So just planning accordingly, you have to take running back

463
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 5: seriously during the draft and during the season, and then

464
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,440
Speaker 5: you know at the draft you can only take wide

465
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 5: receiver ones at the draft. That's not a position that

466
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 5: you could pick up a wide receiver one during this season.

467
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 5: So I absolutely believe in, you know, trying to get

468
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 5: one or two top wide receivers early on.

469
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, yeah, go ahead, right by.

470
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 4: You can't pay attention a week white passing trends in

471
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,400
Speaker 4: a vacuum, just because with the increase in passing comes

472
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 4: to increase in passing to running backs, so that it

473
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 4: doesn't make sense to just say, oh, well, the league.

474
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 2: Is passing more and therefore I'm going to take more receivers.

475
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 5: And it also makes the running backs that still have

476
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,240
Speaker 5: heavy workloads even more valuable.

477
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the actual NFL accumulating as many draft picks

478
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 1: is a smart move. But does that translate to fantasy?

479
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 1: Should I be looking to move back as much as possible?

480
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 1: I'll just say no, probably not.

481
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 4: I would say in the later rounds a little bit

482
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 4: more so, because I think that as you get past that,

483
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 4: I would say, you know, there's about five or six

484
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 4: rounds of players that you know at the at the

485
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 4: flexilogi of positions that you feel have a decently high floor,

486
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 4: and then things start to go a little awrye And

487
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 4: I'd say the ADP is not efficient enough. There is

488
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 4: enough value water on that if I can kind of

489
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 4: get some added value where I want it by trading back.

490
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 4: You know, the difference between a ninth round pick or

491
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 4: a tenth round pick or a tenth and a twelve

492
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 4: is not different, because there's just so many guys that

493
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 4: I feel that you are even going, you know, undrafted

494
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 4: in a lot of weeks, that are going to provide

495
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 4: starter value or near starter value that I don't have

496
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 4: a problem moving back later on.

497
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess it's interesting. I mean, one of my

498
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 1: preferred strategies, although it's harder to do it really just

499
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: kind of depends on the league that you're in, is

500
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 1: actually trading up and kind of moving out of some

501
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 1: of the middle rounds. Because I find that I have

502
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 1: like this Barbell type of approach where I like some

503
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: of the guys who are kind of like the known entities.

504
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: You can really project what they're going to do, and

505
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: they're going in rounds one through four, And then there

506
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: are a lot of guys who are younger up and comers,

507
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: maybe not known as much by people who are just

508
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: in your average league, and those guys are available really late.

509
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: So if I can kind of like buifurtate the way

510
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 1: in which I'm approaching the pool of players, that's one

511
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 1: of the things I like to do. But it's just

512
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: it's hard to do that. It's hard to get trades

513
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: actually done.

514
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

515
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: Agree, What is an outside the box strategy that maybe

516
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: a good strategy this year? Everyone waits on quarterback zero RB.

517
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: Everyone has heard those before. Is there something different this year?

518
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: I think, for me, the most out of the box thing.

519
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 4: And this is not totally out of the box, but

520
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 4: I mean, again, I don't think you should be planning

521
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 4: around positions. I don't think you should be planning draft

522
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 4: from the top down. But for the purpose of answering

523
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 4: the question, I think an interesting one is waiting on

524
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 4: wide receiver. I guess some would call it zero wide

525
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 4: receiver because I do see a wide of receivers in

526
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 4: those middle to late rounds that I think could return

527
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 4: top you know, twelve, top twenty four value and so,

528
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 4: and I think that their ADPs aren't very efficient, at

529
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 4: least at this point in the offseason. So I think,

530
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 4: you know, grabbing a stud running back, maybe grabbing even

531
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 4: two of the tight ends, because if you can get

532
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 4: like a Chelsea ana Ertz or a Kittle, that's a

533
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 4: pretty out of the box thing. And those guys are,

534
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 4: just as those guys are putting up I receiver one

535
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 4: numbers anyway. So it's not like you're necessarily losing out

536
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 4: on the numbers that you would have gotten from drafting

537
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 4: wide receiver there. But you're going to dominate that position,

538
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 4: you're going to take away somebody else from dominating it,

539
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 4: and you can also still be building your running back

540
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 4: stable up because of Sean mentioned, you know those guys

541
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 4: are going.

542
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 2: To be valuable.

543
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 4: Quarterback is always going to be there, so you don't

544
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 4: even you still don't have to take a quarterback early.

545
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 4: But I think that would be the most quote unquote

546
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 4: out of the box strategy that I would probably employ.

547
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: At the risk of derailing us. I'm going to ask

548
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: a question here, which is kind of about strategy. What

549
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on really going after rookies in regular

550
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: redraft leagues, especially let's say like kind of phishier redraft leagues. Like, So,

551
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: the strategy, the theory behind it is that you might

552
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: have a whole bunch of guys playing who don't know

553
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: who a lot of the rookies are, and so those

554
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: rookies might just because they don't have the name value

555
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: yet they might fall down the board in these kind

556
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: of fishier drafts and provide more value.

557
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 5: I think I kind of goes back to with my

558
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 5: letting the draft come to me. You know, I'm going

559
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 5: to grade out all the rookies accordingly, and you know,

560
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,159
Speaker 5: if they happen to fall where I think there's a value,

561
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 5: I'm going to take them. But you know, I definitely

562
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 5: wouldn't reach anticipating my league to pass up on them.

563
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 5: I'd kind of let the league pass up on it

564
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 5: and then scoop them up. So but I know what

565
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 5: you're saying. I'm in some leagues where, you know, I

566
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 5: love them to death, but they don't know what they're

567
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 5: doing and it's an offline draft and they're using magazines

568
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 5: and stuff.

569
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, leagues like that, Leagues like that.

570
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 5: You know, I'm getting ridiculous guys late. So yeah, like

571
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 5: I think Nikhil Harry will you know, fall to the

572
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 5: fifteenth round or something. So yeah, I think that's that's

573
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 5: another important point. You know, knowing your league mates and

574
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 5: you know, knowing their tendencies is a huge edge going

575
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 5: into the draft. I think that's something that's pretty overlooked.

576
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'll just add that in general, rookie

577
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 4: running backs that are slotted to be starters tended to

578
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 4: be pretty safe. Running Backs tend to peak a little

579
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 4: bit earlier, and they tend to be given large work.

580
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 4: If they're in a position to get large work was

581
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 4: at tends to come to fruition more often than not.

582
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 4: Because there's not a huge learning curve with wide receivers,

583
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 4: I'd be a little bit more conservative just because there

584
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 4: is a greater learning curve. I think my favorite time

585
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 4: to take rookie wide receivers is kind of waiting the drafts,

586
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 4: as Friedman was alluding to, you know, when you know

587
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 4: you can kind of get those guys for free, they

588
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 4: might have even gone undrafted, and you can you don't

589
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 4: have to rely on them for any type of starter

590
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 4: or even wide receiver for production.

591
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 2: Those are my favorite times.

592
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 4: But I'd say if you're if you're if you're still

593
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 4: feeling a little bit confused about this, I would i

594
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 4: would suggest just going on like a Pro Football Reference

595
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 4: player season finder, and what you can do is you

596
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 4: can filter by round and just look at the last

597
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 4: five or ten years and sort by targets and just

598
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 4: see for the amount of draft capital team spend on

599
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 4: a on a receiver or any position, how much of

600
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 4: a workload did they get And you can kind of

601
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 4: see what what's kind of a medium to range to expect,

602
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: range of outcomes to expect all right, where you at

603
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 4: With Fournett, I think that you know, he's a little

604
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 4: it's a little concerning just the kind of beef he's

605
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 4: had with Tom call One and the organization. But I

606
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 4: think that's probably as much of the fault of Tom

607
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: Coffin and the organization. I think that one thing that

608
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 4: Jacksonville did show is when they still were kind of

609
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 4: in contention, they were willing to use for net really

610
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 4: heavily in both the run of the pass.

611
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 2: Game and around the goal line.

612
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 4: So I think that he's just one of those I

613
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 4: would probably say, I don't know how you feel about this, Sean,

614
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 4: but I would probably say he is in the frozen

615
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 4: pond tier, but one of the highest upside guys in

616
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 4: that tier.

617
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 5: He's definitely walking on top of the ice like he's

618
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 5: like the cutoff. I think because I would love to

619
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,239
Speaker 5: get him if he falls around three. I think all

620
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 5: these factors that you brought up are great, and you

621
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 5: know he's had a riddled injury history, you know, going

622
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 5: back to college, so I think that's kind of suppressing

623
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 5: his value, but that upside is there. So if he

624
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 5: falls around three, I actually like him there. But you know,

625
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 5: having said that, I'm pretty in line with his ADP

626
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 5: being you know, the thirteenth or fourteenth running back, but

627
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 5: you know that's his role to have if he can

628
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 5: stay healthy. So that's why I think he's just just

629
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 5: above the frozen pond tier. I don't think he meets

630
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 5: the criteria typically uses to describe the describe those types

631
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 5: of guys like.

632
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 4: I'll put it this way when you think about I mean,

633
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 4: I don't know how you guys feel, but if I'm

634
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 4: thinking about a top three running back, like top three finish,

635
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 4: you know, per game, I don't rule Leonard four Nette

636
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 4: out of that, like Leonard Fournette in the right this year,

637
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 4: if the touchdowns are there and he's used like he

638
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 4: was last year, and you know, he could be a

639
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 4: top three So yeah, I wouldn't.

640
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: I wouldn't pass up on him just because of what

641
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 2: happened last year.

642
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 4: I just yeah, I think there's some concern that you

643
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 4: don't necessarily want to put him in that same tier

644
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 4: as the guys in the first and early.

645
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: Second sean is Derrick Henry in the Frozen Pond tier.

646
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 3: Uh, He's definitely in that range.

647
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 5: But he's one of the guys that I would say

648
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 5: doesn't meet the criteria either. You know, last year wasn't

649
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 5: a fluke by any means. You know, it was about

650
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 5: this time last year I was like and depressed state

651
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 5: that the Titans brought him Deon Lewis because I was

652
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 5: writing a load up on Derrick Henry and lo and behold, like,

653
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 5: you know, Dale doesn't get hurt and Henry ends up

654
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 5: just erupting at the end of the year. So I

655
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 5: think the Titans will sort of go into the season

656
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 5: knowing they need to use Henry like they did at

657
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 5: the end of last year. Having said that, though, you know,

658
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 5: when it comes to any sort of PPR format, he

659
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 5: might be a little overrated. But if you're in a

660
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 5: standard format getting him in, you know, the fourth or

661
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 5: fifth round, I say go for it. You know, typically

662
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 5: the criteria of a Frozen Pond guy is, you know,

663
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 5: they kind of had a fluky end of the season.

664
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 5: I hate to say it, but you know, a guy

665
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 5: like Damian Williams might be that kind of guy, but

666
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 5: you know, I still like him because of the offense

667
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 5: or guys that other guys that fit my frozen pond criteria,

668
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 5: Guys that you know, they're sort of the nominal starter

669
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 5: to start the year, but they have guys behind him

670
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,239
Speaker 5: that can take over by like week three, and now

671
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 5: you just have a guy you have to drop. I

672
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 5: don't think Derek Henry's either of those guys. So I

673
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 5: think he's pretty safe in that rbtwo range and would

674
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 5: not consider him part of the frozen pondier.

675
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 4: I think the one thing it's interesting to think about

676
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 4: is that the Titans will now have their fifth play

677
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 4: caller in five years. Arthur Smith, tight ends coach, was promoted.

678
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 4: An interesting kind of subplot to that is that he's

679
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 4: the tight ends coach. However, the Titans were kind of

680
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 4: chided for running I think the most archaic offense in

681
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 4: the league.

682
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:13,479
Speaker 2: Last year.

683
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 4: They had the most two tight end personnel, I believe,

684
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 4: and I think you know, teams generally hear these whispers,

685
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 4: and I wonder, you know they seem in their draft,

686
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 4: you know that they got Brown and so I think

687
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 4: that you will seem, especially with Delaney Walker and John

688
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: o Smith now coming off injury, you know, you could

689
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,239
Speaker 4: be down to Mike Cool Pruitt and Ferkser as your

690
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 4: top two for a large part of camp. And so

691
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 4: I think that they will be running more three wide sets.

692
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 4: I think that will affect Henry in a certain type

693
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 4: of way. So I am a little bit kind of

694
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 4: concern just because you know, the guy who was essentially

695
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 4: responsible for playing him in riding him down straight.

696
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 2: Yes, you know the head coach is still.

697
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 4: There, but you know there's a new OC, so you know,

698
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 4: I think there is a little bit of concern just

699
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 4: in that sense. But I think that he has that

700
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: upside that if he is that guy, I mean.

701
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 2: He could go nuts.

702
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 4: So I think that Rabel, you know, thinking about his

703
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 4: time of New England, might look at Henry as like

704
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 4: a La Garrett Wunt type of guy who, you know,

705
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 4: if the team is winning and they're able to kind

706
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 4: of stay stay in games like they were last.

707
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 2: Year, he's going to be really good.

708
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 4: But if for some reason the bottom falls out and

709
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 4: this is the year the Titans finally kind of stop

710
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 4: overachieving because they've won I think nine games for what

711
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 4: three straight years. If they stop overachieving, you could be

712
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: in for that kind of early season disappointment with Henry again.

713
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: So he's a guy like I think I'd probably rather

714
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 2: have four nett. I don't know. I'm kind of going

715
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: back and forth on in my rankings.

716
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 1: All right, how do you see the forty nine ers

717
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: backfield shaking out? Is Tevin Coleman the guy to roster?

718
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 3: I think they're ranked accordingly right now.

719
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 5: You know, in a vacuum, I would obviously like to

720
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 5: take Coleman, but you know that's pretty big then its

721
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 5: ADP right now, they're really hard to sort out. So

722
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 5: in situations like that, I typically get the guy being underdrafted,

723
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,479
Speaker 5: and that would be Brita. I would just stash him

724
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 5: later in the draft. And you know, if Coleman miss

725
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 5: his time, are they trade away or cut McKinnon.

726
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 3: Now have Brita who.

727
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 5: Show last year he can take on a big role,

728
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 5: and you know, despite not being able to stay healthy

729
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 5: last year, I think he'd be the guy that I

730
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,239
Speaker 5: think is posing the most value to just benefit from

731
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 5: this crowded backfield. So I mean, in general, I'm avoiding

732
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 5: it altogether.

733
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you have to be careful to label

734
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 4: it and think of it in that way as like

735
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 4: a guy to own in the San fran backfield. I

736
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 4: think there are certain coaches and in many of them

737
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 4: now are realizing that, especially you know, with with what

738
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 4: the Wngland's been doing, and you know, I think even

739
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 4: what the rams that would grow and Anderson, you know,

740
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 4: increased the visibility, the hyper visibility of of having these committees.

741
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, from what I've heard and

742
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: the quotes I've seen from Shanahan, he said that he

743
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 4: envisioned Coleman as kind of his big back, his so

744
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 4: I'm thinking that he envisions Coleman as kind of what

745
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 4: Alfred Morris would have brought to the table last year,

746
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 4: even though that's probably not exactly what we think of

747
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: Coleman as you think of him as still a speed guy.

748
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 4: But I think Coleman's going to fill it was brought

749
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 4: in to fill a particular type of role, that kind

750
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 4: of big back, goal line type of guy. And I

751
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: think then McKinnon has kind of looked at, as you know,

752
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 4: Brita and Turance and vice versa. I don't think they're

753
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: sure about McKinnon yet, but I think that Brita and

754
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 4: McKinnon will have a similar type of role, and if

755
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 4: McKinnon is not healthy, I think that really increases the

756
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: viability of Brita. But right now I have Cold at

757
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 4: forty percent of the carries, Breed at thirty percent, McKinnon

758
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 4: at eighteen, and Rare Hee Mostered at at nine percent,

759
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 4: and you check out about two percent. I think Mostard

760
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 4: might still factor in because Shanahan does like him a lot,

761
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 4: So that'll be interesting to see as well.

762
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: Who are the running backs going around round five? Who

763
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: are potential lead backs?

764
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 2: Well, it depends on your draft.

765
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 4: I think you know certain drafts where maybe at Jacob's

766
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 4: falls that well, I don't think he should. Lamar Miller

767
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 4: is another guy who it's from all indications it seems

768
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 4: like the Texans are going to go forward with him again.

769
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: And he's been getting about two thirds of the carries

770
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 4: and about seventy eight percent of the target so, you know,

771
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 4: not spectacular, but I think you know, you have DaShan

772
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 4: Watson and a modestly improved old line and the receivers

773
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 4: back healthy.

774
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 2: I think that's still a potentially explosive offense.

775
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 4: And so he's kind of the I've been snagging if

776
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 4: I need an extra running back at that point in

777
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 4: the draft.

778
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think, you know, there's a ton after round five,

779
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 5: and that's essentially what you're trying to do is get

780
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 5: guys that can you know, elevate to that role. You know,

781
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 5: some of the backups where if the starter gets hurt,

782
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 5: are pretty easy to gauge, but you know round five

783
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 5: guys that don't really require somebody to get hurt that

784
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 5: could take over, or guys like you know, David Montgomery

785
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 5: on Chicago, Lamar Miller, like Ray Bond said, is pretty

786
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 5: much already in that role, mark Ingram Miles Sanders for Philly,

787
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 5: Ronald Jones in Tampa. You know, a lot of these guys,

788
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 5: you know, if they, you know, break out this season,

789
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 5: could take over. But then you have guys like Latavis

790
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 5: Murray that have value already to start the season. But

791
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 5: if Kamara gets hurt, would sort of take over that role,

792
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 5: and you know he would be a round three year,

793
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 5: round two kind of value at that point. But you

794
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 5: definitely don't want to start trying to predict injuries. You know,

795
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 5: in the round five to ten range, you're just trying

796
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 5: to get these guys that just how alone can elevate

797
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 5: them to work horse role. So there's a few of

798
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 5: them around that range.

799
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 2: Oh my god.

800
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to like mark Ingram man like

801
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 4: I was down on him last year, so you know

802
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 4: I ain't biased. I love mark Ingram this year like

803
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 4: he is if he's still round in a fifth round. Mean,

804
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,440
Speaker 4: look at what the Ravens are doing. They have a

805
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 4: quarterback that might not attempt more than like twenty five

806
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 4: to twenty eight passes per game. They had an effective

807
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 4: run game with Gus Edwards, who is like the third

808
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,200
Speaker 4: or fourth guy. I understand that every year we draft

809
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 4: a wrong Baltimore running back and it changes by midseason, but.

810
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 2: I think you have to look at it like this.

811
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 4: They had an effective run game already with the guys

812
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 4: on the roster that were cheap, and they still felt

813
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 4: it necessary to bring in a mark Ingram And so

814
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 4: with the way this team operates now, I do think

815
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 4: that the defense will take a step back, but this

816
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: is going to be an extremely run heavy team. They're

817
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 4: going to need more than one back, and I think

818
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 4: Warma was gonna be that weedback and just giving his

819
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 4: skills set, I mean, he's obviously more talented than Edwards

820
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 4: than Alex Collins.

821
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: He could have a monster year.

822
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's actually falling to like round six and seven.

823
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 1: Oh, snag him, pick him up, Edo Smith. Is he

824
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 1: worth drafting inside of round ten?

825
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 4: No?

826
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 3: Next question.

827
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: Happen in a dilemma Andrew Luck or Mahomes in second

828
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 1: round of the draft? Whom do you prefer this year?

829
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: I would say neither your draft. Do either of you

830
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 1: disagree with me? No, but definitely not Andrew Luck in

831
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: the second round. No, just just wait, just wait.

832
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 4: There's literally there's the top twelve quarterbacks, and the quarterbacks

833
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 4: thirteen to twenty four could conceivably finished as the top

834
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 4: twelve and the top twelve as the thirteen to twenty

835
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 4: five side.

836
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: Of maybe like Mahomes, Mayfield, you.

837
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 3: Know, and Luck?

838
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, Wait, what is the earliest do you think

839
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 1: it's okay to draft a quarterback?

840
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 3: Round three? I wouldn't be one of those people, but

841
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 3: I think round three is the time.

842
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, let's say you personally, Let's say, hey, Patrick

843
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: Mahomes is there in round four. Do you draft him?

844
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: Depends how the first three rounds went, but I would

845
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 3: definitely have to consider it.

846
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: Round five if he's there round five, round.

847
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 3: Five for sure?

848
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, depending on these settings if they're weird. But yeah,

849
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 5: just straight up league Round five for sure.

850
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 4: Yeah right long, it's gonna sound way too contrarian, but

851
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 4: I would say round seven because I would want two

852
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 4: running backs, three wide receivers, and either a flex or

853
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 4: a tight end before I before I touch the quarterback.

854
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, how do you project quarterback run totals for

855
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 1: likely outlier schemes such as Baltimore or Buffalo?

856
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 2: I love this question.

857
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 4: I hope we can spend some time on it because

858
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 4: I'm guessing we'll all have quite slightly different methods of this.

859
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: By the way, this question was asked by Josh Adhd

860
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: at Fantasy hd Adhd shout out to Josh great guy.

861
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 2: I pre follow him on Twitter. Awesome, awesome content.

862
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think that for me personally, what I

863
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 4: use is, I use you know, for every team, you're

864
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 4: gonna have base rates, and for every stat they're gonna

865
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 4: you're gonna have base rates. And then you're gonna have

866
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: a stableization point, which is essentially when the R squared

867
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 4: is zero point five, you know when it's half skilled

868
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 4: half luck. And so for me, what I use is

869
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 4: I look at rushing attempts for quarterbacks as a quarterback

870
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 4: trait as part of the overall projection for him. So

871
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 4: I start, you know, I project rushing attempts as a

872
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 4: function of dropbacks and of pass attempts.

873
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 2: So depending on how many for every you know.

874
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 4: Dropback, you know, even if it's a designed run, that's

875
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:26,919
Speaker 4: still going to impact the team. And so you can't

876
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 4: because you can't project let's say Baltimore with Lamar Jackson,

877
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 4: they're running, you know, thirty five forty times a game.

878
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 4: Well you can't just say, oh, well, Baltimore is gonna

879
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 4: run thirty four five forty times a game. And then

880
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 4: let's say you had Joe Flacco come back in, and

881
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 4: you just have a completely wrong projection of rushing attempts

882
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 4: for the team. So I start with quarterback with their dropbacks,

883
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 4: and then I project rushing attempts as a function of that.

884
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 4: And then I'm projecting overall play volume based on how

885
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 4: many games I think a team team's going to win

886
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 4: in game script, and then whatever is left over after

887
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 4: I have pass attempts, sacks, and quarterback rushes that gets

888
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 4: out catered to the rest of the rushing attempts for

889
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 4: the running backs, receivers, and whoever else might attempt the

890
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 4: Taysom Hills and you know those guys.

891
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I do a lot of the similar techniques

892
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 5: that Raybond mentioned. I consider rush attempts more of a

893
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 5: skill based and skiing based set, so that's gonna be

894
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 5: a little more stable ear to her yards for rush

895
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 5: and touchdown percentage.

896
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: I regress those a lot more.

897
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 5: Of Having said that, you know, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson,

898
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 5: they they were pretty crazy last year, and I do

899
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 5: expect them to I guess a little bit in the

900
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 5: rush attempts, but not too much. Josh Allen especially, you know,

901
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 5: I was, I was went back and watched a lot

902
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 5: of his run attempts, and you know, they they have

903
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 5: a weird offense where you know, they send everyone deep

904
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 5: and if they're covered, Josh all will just pull down

905
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 5: and run.

906
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 3: And you know, dude's a freak. He's a great runner.

907
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 3: So I don't really see that changing much.

908
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 5: I do think bring in Cole Beasley, they might be saying, hey,

909
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 5: you know, if they're you know, cover deep, check it

910
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 5: down to Cole Beasley, and that that could sort of

911
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 5: lower his attempts still, but I'm keeping him roughly the same,

912
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 5: but his his yards profession last year is seven point one.

913
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 5: That's gonna come down, so have that, you know, closer

914
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 5: to a normal five point five for someone his caliber,

915
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 5: and then his rush touchdowns will come down a little bit.

916
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 5: So you know, I'm regressing Allen quite a bit in

917
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 5: the running department, but I think he'll he'll make up

918
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 5: for it in the passing game. I think they brought

919
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 5: in some weapons, so you know, I'm giving a boost

920
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 5: in the passing game. Lamar Jackson, on other hand, you know,

921
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 5: he was averaging seventeen rushing attempts a game and his

922
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 5: starts last year, and I have a closer to twelve.

923
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 5: I just think that's it's not really sustainable to have

924
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 5: a guy like that take a beating at quarterback.

925
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 3: In addition to sacks.

926
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 5: So I'm thinking, you know, they'll they'll bring it down

927
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 5: to closer to twelve, and they're gonna have less positive

928
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 5: game scripts in general.

929
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 3: You know, the defense is going to take a step back,

930
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 3: so he's gonna have to throw more.

931
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 5: Having said that, you know, I think his yards per

932
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 5: attempt will actually go up this year. I think he'll

933
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 5: have more efficient run and design runs and things like

934
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 5: that so and his touchdown rate was pretty stable. So

935
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 5: having said all that, he's coming in as my QB

936
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 5: nine and that's you know, giving quite a bit of

937
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 5: regression in the running department. So that's why I've been

938
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 5: targeting him, you know as my qbdo and a lot

939
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,240
Speaker 5: of drafts because I'm factoring at a ton of regression

940
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 5: and he's still you know, a QB one for me.

941
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 3: So a lot of the skill based things are still

942
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 3: going to be there this year, so anything else is upside.

943
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 5: So you know, when I approach these these rushing stats,

944
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 5: I'm you know, sort of balancing the skill and luck

945
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 5: and just letting the chips fallward.

946
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: They may yeah, I.

947
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 4: Will say, yeah, I have Lamar at twelve point nine carries.

948
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 4: I have Josh Allen at seven point three. And I

949
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 4: do agree. I think there's a lot more variants that

950
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 4: I give in terms of my range of outcomes for

951
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 4: projecting quarterback yard for Carrie than there is with running

952
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 4: back where they're almost.

953
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 2: All exactly the same.

954
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 4: Because it takes about two thousand carries for running backs

955
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 4: yard per carry number to actually stabilise, So a lot

956
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 4: of that variant we're seeing is just it's not really

957
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 4: predictive at all.

958
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 1: All Right, here's a question, what is the best experience

959
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: you've ever had in your life? For me, the answer

960
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 1: is booking an experience through Airbnb Experiences. Nailed it. On

961
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 1: last week's show, I talked about hiking with my wife,

962
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 1: which we booked through Airbnb Experiences. We had a professional

963
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 1: naturalist guiding us through the wild woodlands near the Iowa River.

964
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: That was definitely a great experience, and I imagine one

965
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: that is just representative of how awesome the total suite

966
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: of available Airbnb experiences truly is. You know about Airbnb.

967
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968
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: a place to stay, but you should check out the

969
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Speaker 1: site for Airbnb experiences, which provide access to activities that

970
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Speaker 1: you can't easily find elsewhere. Airbnb experiences are designed for

971
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Speaker 1: active participation so you can do something new. They are

972
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973
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974
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: have deep expertise in their field. These are real experts

975
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: with long time hands on experience who are guiding you

976
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977
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,800
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978
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979
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 1: thousand cities around the world, so there are lots of

980
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981
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,759
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982
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,400
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983
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,720
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984
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: dot com slash experiences to explore one of the kind

985
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 1: activities created for the curious. Okay, guys, if we're going

986
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 1: to get through the rest of the questions, we are

987
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 1: really going to have to pick up the pace, so

988
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 1: no long windedness if possible. Next question, are you going

989
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: to do another of your three major tendencies of offensive

990
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 1: defensive coordinators coaches article?

991
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm going to bring it back.

992
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 4: There's a lot of interest in it and I think

993
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 4: I can really lend a voice in terms of I've

994
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 4: been studying not just that the coordinators and the tendencies,

995
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 4: but just organizational philosophy that goes past it, that goes

996
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 4: to the GM and the owner, and a lot of

997
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 4: times those guys are issuing orders and putting these coordinators

998
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 4: under mandates. It's not just as simple as saying, oh, hey,

999
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 4: this guy through to the end eighteen percent of the time,

1000
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 4: and so that's.

1001
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 2: What I'm going to kind of project it. It goes

1002
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 2: a lot deeper than that.

1003
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 4: So I am going to bring that back, whether that's

1004
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 4: one article or just you know, the three bullet points

1005
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 4: within each of our team previews, it'll be there in

1006
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 4: some form.

1007
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: Does Doug Peterson like to use a backfo committee because

1008
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 1: he doesn't have good backs? Or does he do it

1009
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 1: because he has good pats, but he just likes to

1010
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 1: use a committee.

1011
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 4: I'll jumping out, And so I think so from what

1012
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 4: we've seen he likes to do. He likes he wants

1013
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 4: two backs, usually a more complete element that can catch passes,

1014
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,320
Speaker 4: but also a power element. We've seen him kind of

1015
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 4: use Jamal Charles and Nile Davis in those roles that

1016
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 4: in Philly they had Ryan Matthews Darren Sprolls. So I

1017
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 4: think two is he kind of wants to use. I

1018
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 4: think they don't necessarily want to do the three like

1019
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 4: Philly was doing for a while. I think that was

1020
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 4: more of a function of having Sprolls in the mix

1021
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 4: and not really having a lot of proven guys outside

1022
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 4: of that, so I think they'll kind of settle on

1023
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 4: Sanders and Howard this year.

1024
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: Should I be overly worried that the Saints lost their center?

1025
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 5: No, they brought in Nick Easton from Minnesota to hopefully

1026
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 5: fill in the gap that Unger careti when you're retired,

1027
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 5: and they also drafted Eric McCoy, so if you know

1028
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 5: Easton doesn't work out, they could plug in the rookie

1029
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 5: who's considered to be a high floor prospect. So you know,

1030
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 5: it's not something that I'm really factoring in too much

1031
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 5: in Kamara breeze or empty. I think you just drafted

1032
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 5: those guys straight up. It's not something I'd be overly

1033
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 5: concerned about.

1034
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: Okay, how should I gauge the Arizona offensive line? How

1035
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 1: much better will they be based on health? Improved health?

1036
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 1: And then does the air raid scheme mean that even

1037
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:39,320
Speaker 1: if the offensive line players aren't that good, the offensive

1038
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:40,879
Speaker 1: line as a whole will be better.

1039
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 2: I think that's a great question. Number one.

1040
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, offensive line play does not carry over from year

1041
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 4: to year. Does not qualate that that much, so you

1042
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 4: kind of have to assume that teams are going to

1043
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 4: regress that the worst are going to regress a little bit.

1044
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 4: I think yes, Humphries and p being healthy will help.

1045
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 4: I think adding Marcus Gilbert will help. So I think

1046
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 4: they'll be modestly better, maybe blow average, maybe a round

1047
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 4: league average. And I do think that the air rates

1048
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 4: scheame helps because what that will do is they'll spread

1049
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 4: it out of what a more three four wide receivers

1050
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: Johnson will have or whoever's the back will have more.

1051
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 2: Room to work.

1052
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,720
Speaker 4: And you also have to remember that a quarterback that's mobile,

1053
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 4: like a Kyla Murray usually gives a little bump to

1054
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 4: running backs in terms of efficiency because defenses have to

1055
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 4: account for that quarterback and kind of account on the

1056
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 4: edge for which way which one they're going to follow

1057
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 4: the quarterback or the runner back on certain type option plays.

1058
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Evan Silva pointed this out on Twitter a

1059
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: couple of days ago. Cliff Kingsbury had a very good

1060
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 1: system at Texas Tech in terms of the offensive line play,

1061
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: a very low sack rate in general, in part because

1062
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 1: there was such an emphasis on getting the ball out

1063
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: quickly from the quarterback. So as we've seen with the

1064
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 1: Rams over the past couple of years, even if the

1065
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 1: offensive line isn't all that great, it can look much

1066
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 1: much better just based on how the quarterback is deployed.

1067
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: Would Friedman trade Antonio Brown for Kyler Murray straight up

1068
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 1: in Dynasty? This is a great question, and I could

1069
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,959
Speaker 1: talk about it for hours. Instead, I will talk about

1070
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 1: it for just minutes. No, I don't believe that I

1071
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 1: actually would, because I would hope that I could get

1072
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 1: more for Antonio Brown than just Kyler Murray. But if

1073
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 1: I were focused on this year, I think Antonio Brown

1074
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: probably provides more utility this year. So if I were

1075
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,399
Speaker 1: really focused on winning this year, I would want Antonio Brown.

1076
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: If I'm thinking more long term, I think this really

1077
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 1: might be the last year of high end utility out

1078
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: of Antonio Brown. So even from that perspective, I think

1079
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: now would be a good time to try to trade

1080
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: him for an asset. I would just hope to be

1081
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: able to get more than Kyler Murray, and I think

1082
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: starting in year two, so we'll say twenty twenty, I

1083
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 1: think Kyler Murray would be able to give more than

1084
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown. Like, I have a really high opinion of

1085
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. I think he's a league winning type of player,

1086
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: So he is someone I would want. I could trade

1087
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 1: Antono Brown for Kyler Murray plus something else, I would

1088
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 1: definitely do it. Did you guys play any sports in

1089
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 1: high school or college?

1090
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:15,360
Speaker 5: Yep, high school four years varsity, across country team captain

1091
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 5: for one of them, and baseball all four years two

1092
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 5: and a half on varsity. I was a pitcher and outfielder,

1093
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 5: extreme contact, no power hitter with base running smarts, and

1094
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 5: I would I would try to pull a lot of

1095
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 5: trick plays him and ball tricks, game theory type thing,

1096
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 5: so pretty pretty par for the course with me.

1097
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I didn't play any Our football team actually

1098
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 4: got there was like a really bad injury, I guess,

1099
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 4: and our football team got taken away.

1100
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: So that's what I wanted to play.

1101
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 4: O would have been one of those like well quick

1102
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 4: returner types, but you know, didn't do that. So played

1103
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 4: played some sports that aren't actually sports after school.

1104
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: In high school, if you know what I mean.

1105
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I did basketball, you know, JV superstar our team

1106
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 1: went undefeated, We're so fai tastic, and then baseball for

1107
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: four years outfielder. I had such a weak arm it

1108
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: was an embarrassment. So eventually I started as a center

1109
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: fielder on varsity freshman year, but because I was fast

1110
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: when my arm was so weak, eventually I just had

1111
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: moved me to left field, which saved my arm. Okay,

1112
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: what the hell kind of season is Antonio Brown going

1113
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: to have? In your opinion? I'll just say, in my opinion,

1114
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 1: I think he will probably be a low end wide

1115
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,399
Speaker 1: receiver one. And I think that's probably like, I think

1116
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: that's realistic. I think that's also kind of close to

1117
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,239
Speaker 1: his ceiling. And I think in part is just he's

1118
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 1: going to be fed a lot of volume. But I

1119
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: think there's also a lot of potential for downside here,

1120
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: especially if things start to go sideways with the offense,

1121
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,839
Speaker 1: and you know, we'll just we'll see how he really

1122
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: likes playing with someone who is not a future Hall

1123
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 1: of Famer in a city where people aren't going to

1124
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: care as much about the team. Anyway, What do you

1125
00:48:58,480 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 1: guys think?

1126
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that completely.

1127
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 5: You know, the targets are going to be there, so

1128
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 5: I definitely you should draft him as a wide receiver one.

1129
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 5: But you know, there's a lot of hidden downside there,

1130
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 5: like you mentioned, you know, just imagine the Raiders are

1131
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 5: four and ten heading into the Fantasy playoffs, Antonio Brown

1132
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:16,760
Speaker 5: is known to be sort of an off field problem.

1133
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 5: Who knows what's going to be going on, you know,

1134
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 5: and that's I don't plan for those scenarios, but that's

1135
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 5: got to be at least like a ten percent chance

1136
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 5: where he and Derek Carr feuding heading into the Fantasy playoffs,

1137
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 5: and you're wondering if you could even start him. But

1138
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,399
Speaker 5: other red flags with him are you know, we've seen

1139
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 5: whenever Big Ben went down and he had to play

1140
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 5: with the backup quarterback, he's typically a wide receiver two,

1141
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:40,880
Speaker 5: even wide receiver three in those spots, and the elite

1142
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 5: guys like DeVante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, whenever the quarterback goes down,

1143
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 5: it doesn't matter whose QB, Tom Savage, Brett Henley, those

1144
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:50,879
Speaker 5: guys are still elite wide receiver ones. And he's never

1145
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 5: really shown that in the past because I think, you know,

1146
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 5: with him, a lot of it had to do with

1147
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 5: the chemistry between him and Big Ben. So I'm just

1148
00:49:58,200 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 5: wondering if he'll be able to get that with their

1149
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 5: car so quickly at you know, age thirty one. So

1150
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,480
Speaker 5: there's there's a lot of red flags there. But you

1151
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:06,959
Speaker 5: know he's still going to see a time of target,

1152
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 5: so you can't ignore him completely.

1153
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the one downside I'm really concerned about

1154
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 4: is that there were times, especially last year, where Amari

1155
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 4: Cooper was open and Derek Carr didn't throw him the

1156
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 4: ball and Derek Carr kind of took the check down.

1157
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 4: So that to me is the downside. But yeah, I

1158
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,759
Speaker 4: still have I have him ranked the eighth in half

1159
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 4: point PPR. I still think that the target chair will

1160
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 4: being at twenty six to thirty percent range.

1161
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 1: Who are the wide receivers you like for consistency overseeialing,

1162
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: So the guys who aren't league winners, but you can

1163
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:39,520
Speaker 1: play them every week and bank on twelve plus PPR points.

1164
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:41,439
Speaker 3: I love this question.

1165
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 5: I think the guy that basically embodies this question is

1166
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 5: Golden Tate. He's being drafted around like wide receiver thirty

1167
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 5: five and forty and PPR, so I've been getting him

1168
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 5: as you know, a late round flex. You know, I

1169
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 5: wouldn't want him to be my wide receiver two or

1170
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 5: three necessarily, but you can get him lay enough where

1171
00:50:57,360 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 5: he's your flex to start the year. I have him

1172
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 5: at exactly twelve PPR points per game average. So I

1173
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 5: think he's one of those safe guys that's just going

1174
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 5: to give you a consistent high floor, not necessarily a

1175
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 5: much upside, but just the guy you can just trust

1176
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 5: to plug in and get you twelve or so points

1177
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 5: every week.

1178
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think that's a good one. I

1179
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 4: think I think Tyler Boyd, Larry Fitzgerald guys who might

1180
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 4: not have that league winning upside anymore. I think even

1181
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,800
Speaker 4: Sterling Shepherd, you know, opposite Golden Tate is going to

1182
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 4: be a pretty high volume guy. I think a guy

1183
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 4: I've talked about him before, but Curtis Samuel is a

1184
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 4: guy who I think is going to get a lot

1185
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 4: of looks each game. You know, we've seen them give

1186
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 4: him five six, seven touches combined in a run pass

1187
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 4: game when he's only played twenty thirty percent of the snap.

1188
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:43,760
Speaker 2: So he might actually have a little more upside.

1189
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 4: But I think he's going to have a pretty safe

1190
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 4: floor as well, and as as as is Christian Kirk.

1191
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 2: But I actually think he has a lot more upside.

1192
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 4: But I think he'll get schemed easy completions every game

1193
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 4: as well.

1194
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 1: All Right, Tyreek Hill, we have questions on his situation

1195
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 1: and so we're going to kind of wrap those all

1196
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 1: into one question. How are you looking at Tyreek Hill

1197
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 1: and how does that impact the way you are evaluating

1198
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,720
Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins and also Travis Kelsey.

1199
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 5: I think right now I'm assuming tyryk Kill is not

1200
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 5: going to play this year. That might be dangerous, but

1201
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 5: I think it's just you have to pick a side

1202
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 5: right now. So having said that, I've mentioned it before,

1203
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 5: I'm targeting Kelsey early and often. But also I mentioned

1204
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,439
Speaker 5: on our last pot, Sammy Watkins is still going around

1205
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 5: wide receiver twenty four, and I think you got to

1206
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 5: get that if you're doing best balls right now. Once

1207
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 5: Terry is announced out for the season, I think he'll

1208
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 5: rise closer to the top fifteen. I'm not sure yet,

1209
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 5: but I think he'll definitely be a top twenty ADP

1210
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,439
Speaker 5: by then. And you know, last year he was wide

1211
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 5: receiver twenty four in the nine games he was healthy,

1212
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 5: So you're kind of just getting that built in upside

1213
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,800
Speaker 5: as potentially being the number one wide receiver for Patrick Holmes.

1214
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:52,359
Speaker 3: So I think you got to do it at wide

1215
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 3: receiver twenty four.

1216
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:55,960
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think the biggest INCENTI with Wackens is not

1217
00:52:56,440 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 4: production it's just staying healthy. I think he's still one

1218
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,320
Speaker 4: of the bigger injury risks at the position, But in

1219
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 4: terms of upside, I think he has as much as

1220
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,399
Speaker 4: as any I think it's not out of the question

1221
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 4: for Sammy Watkins assuming Tyrek is out to finish as

1222
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,359
Speaker 4: the overall wide receiver one and I think, oh, sorry,

1223
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 4: go ahead, Oh.

1224
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 3: No, I was just gonna finish up my.

1225
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 5: He you know, with him, you know, he's been around

1226
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 5: the league seems like forever, been on so many teams.

1227
00:53:21,719 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 5: You just assuming he's like three years old, He's still,

1228
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 5: you know, only twenty six entering his prime. So I

1229
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 5: think that you know, you're right with the injury concerns,

1230
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:30,439
Speaker 5: but you know, he does have age on his side,

1231
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 5: so you have to keep in mind that he's younger

1232
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 5: than people think.

1233
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, absolutely he could. He he has the top

1234
00:53:36,280 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 4: overall upside. I'm just treating him the same way as Sean.

1235
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,400
Speaker 4: I'm assuming he's not going to play, and I have

1236
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 4: Mikole Hardman kind of slotted into Tyreeko at eighty three

1237
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 4: targets as a rookie, so that's about five five per game.

1238
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 2: That's tentatively what I have. Hardman at right now.

1239
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 4: So even if I had a plug Hill back into that,

1240
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,359
Speaker 4: let's say he was suspended for eight games or something

1241
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 4: like that, but they kept him, it would kind of

1242
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 4: work out to a similar amount of targets. So that's

1243
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 4: I'm not really too worried about it. I think, Yeah,

1244
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,120
Speaker 4: I think Watkins and Kelsey are the big winners here.

1245
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 1: Sean shooting from the hip. If you had to handicap

1246
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 1: the odds of Tyreek Hill playing a game this season,

1247
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: what would that be?

1248
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:18,000
Speaker 2: I think?

1249
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he plays.

1250
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:23,439
Speaker 3: I really Okay, So you think it's over fifty percent, then.

1251
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 1: I mean that's a fiery, very optimistic take. But yeah,

1252
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: I mean the longer this goes without anything happening, the

1253
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: more realistic I think it is that he plays.

1254
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I haven't been as much online smooth as I

1255
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:42,399
Speaker 5: was with Leshall McCoy last year, so I can't put

1256
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:44,279
Speaker 5: a good This might be a good like Twitter poll,

1257
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 5: I think this is something you'd want to just get

1258
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 5: a wisdom of the crowds type of pull on it,

1259
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 5: because it's it's hard to gauge. Like you said, you know,

1260
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 5: the longest this goes on, you do you have to

1261
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 5: wonder if they're just gonna just roll with him. So

1262
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:58,920
Speaker 5: it's definitely worth monitoring, especially this time of year if

1263
00:54:58,960 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 5: you're doing the best balls.

1264
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 1: All right, there are a lot of questions that have

1265
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 1: to do with Kelsey, Ertz and Kittle and then whether

1266
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: anyone else can sort of like break into the top

1267
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,399
Speaker 1: tier or who you're targeting after that. So I kind

1268
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 1: of want to lump this all into one question of

1269
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: like what are you doing with your titands or like

1270
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 1: what is your tight end drafting philosophy?

1271
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 5: So I'll go first because I've been pretty clear I'm

1272
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 5: trying to get one of the top three, especially Kelsey

1273
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 5: early on. The part of this question that I do

1274
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:30,799
Speaker 5: want to hit on it, which I think is really cool,

1275
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 5: is who will be the Eric Ebron of this year.

1276
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 5: I think that's a great question because I would say

1277
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,920
Speaker 5: Vance McDonald sort of hits all the boxes that Ebron

1278
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 5: had last year. You have a guy that's talented, he's

1279
00:55:41,480 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 5: on a top offense, and you know, part of Ebron's

1280
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 5: success last year was Jack Doyle went down. There wasn't

1281
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 5: really many receivers behind t Y Hilton that were doing anything,

1282
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 5: and then t Y Hilton himself was banged up. So

1283
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 5: I think vance McDonald hits all those boxes. There's no

1284
00:55:56,719 --> 00:56:00,239
Speaker 5: more ab, there's no more Jesse James to even you know,

1285
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 5: consider someone taking tight end targets away.

1286
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 3: So I think he is the guy.

1287
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 5: You know, he's sort of I forgot where Ebron was

1288
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 5: being draft last year, but he's he's lurking. McDonald is

1289
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 5: lurking around like tight end twelve to fourteen. So he

1290
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 5: just strikes me as a guy that could be a

1291
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,640
Speaker 5: top five tight end easily this year sort of upside.

1292
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 5: So he's sort of reminds me of Ebron going into

1293
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 5: last year.

1294
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that, Raymond, what do you think?

1295
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:24,359
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1296
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 2: I like that because I think Juju now is going

1297
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:27,800
Speaker 2: to get more coverage too. You got to remember that.

1298
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,320
Speaker 4: And another one I think, and I've talked about this

1299
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 4: is David Nijoku because I think Baker Mayfield is going

1300
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:36,480
Speaker 4: to be so good and you're gonna have to pay

1301
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 4: attention to Beckham, You're gonna have to pay attention to

1302
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 4: Andrey that it's possible in the Joku is that kind

1303
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 4: of third priority for the defense, which wends itself well

1304
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 4: to him getting an outlier amount of touchdowns because his

1305
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 4: quarterback is so good and he's gonna throw him to

1306
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 4: somebody and so yeah, and he has that athletic ability

1307
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 4: as well to kind of be to kind of be

1308
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 4: that guy.

1309
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:56,399
Speaker 2: So I like, I like those two guys.

1310
00:56:57,120 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, And for me, one guy I mean very different

1311
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 1: in terms of the dynamic of Eric Ebron, but one

1312
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 1: guy who I think has potential as a late round

1313
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: tight end, and we talked about the previous show, Mark Andrews.

1314
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: I think a lot of potential there in Baltimore. He

1315
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 1: has an established connection with Lamar Jackson. Uh Okay. I

1316
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 1: wish kickers could have their points as part of the defense,

1317
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: so for instance, a Lion's defense would get to Prater's points.

1318
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this?

1319
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 4: I get I get it, but I don't really like

1320
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 4: that anymore than just having them separate, because I think

1321
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 4: they are too totally different positions. And I don't think

1322
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 4: you want to if you're if you're drafting defenses, you

1323
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,520
Speaker 4: want to be able to atways think of defenses as

1324
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 4: defense and as you know, maybe incorporating a little bit

1325
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 4: of that return game. But adding kickers just adds like

1326
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:41,520
Speaker 4: a whole another layer that I think over complicated. I think,

1327
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 4: if anything, you want to simplify it and just you know,

1328
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 4: eliminate the position completely if you don't if you don't

1329
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 4: like it.

1330
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, fab tips and tricks or general strategies.

1331
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 5: So I I mean there's you kind of have to

1332
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 5: let that come to also. But I've typically just like

1333
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 5: rid my budget and save it for you know, two

1334
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 5: big buys during the year, typically running backs. And I

1335
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 5: think one of the things you want to avoid is

1336
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 5: just getting guys that you know, just had a big

1337
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 5: game but they don't really have a role going forward

1338
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 5: that would you know, draw a big bid. So I'm

1339
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 5: also a factory, and you know, if a star running

1340
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:21,959
Speaker 5: back gets suspended for a game or two or goes down,

1341
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 5: I'm not going to load up on a guy just

1342
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 5: for a two game rental. If a guy is ruled

1343
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 5: out for a year, a starting running back, I'm willing

1344
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 5: to load up and just you know, go all in

1345
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 5: on the backup running back or somebody that I think

1346
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 5: is going to provide me the value for the rest

1347
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 5: of the season. So having said that, I usually just

1348
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 5: make two huge bids a year. Other times, you know,

1349
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,680
Speaker 5: I punt on kicker and defense at the draft, So

1350
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 5: I'm usually just doing one dollar kicker, defense buys here

1351
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 5: and there, just getting the team I like the most.

1352
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 5: But I just urge people to follow from the traps

1353
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 5: of just, you know, spending thirty dollars in the guy

1354
00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 5: that you know this is going to fizzle away in

1355
00:58:58,400 --> 00:58:58,959
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks.

1356
00:58:59,360 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 1: Okay, next question here, auction strategy twelve teen PPR. I mean,

1357
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 1: there are a lot of details in this question, so

1358
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:08,880
Speaker 1: instead of going through that, I just kind of want

1359
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 1: your general auction strategy.

1360
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 5: So some of the tips that I have for auction drafts,

1361
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 5: which I take part in every year, I love them.

1362
00:59:17,200 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 5: It's pretty obvious you want to get guys at value.

1363
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 5: You're you're gonna have dollar values, and you want to

1364
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 5: save money and get guys cheaper than you have on

1365
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:27,640
Speaker 5: your dollar values. That's great now, but when you enter

1366
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 5: in the draft, I think right away, right off the bat,

1367
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 5: you need to be a little bit aggressive because everybody

1368
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 5: is and there's sort of an inflation in the draft

1369
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 5: because of that.

1370
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 3: So don't be afraid to overbid early.

1371
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 5: Definitely go over your dollar values by a few bucks

1372
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 5: to snag some of these top receivers, top running backs.

1373
00:59:46,120 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 5: It's okay because no one's gonna have money later in

1374
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 5: the drafts, so you're gonna still be able to get

1375
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 5: you know, great value later in the drafts. Another tip

1376
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 5: I have is every pick, every every nomination, try to bid,

1377
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 5: you know, seventy seventy five percent of your dollar value,

1378
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 5: and you just try to get people off guard.

1379
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:04,240
Speaker 3: You know.

1380
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 5: Sometimes if it's an offline draft, you know, people are

1381
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 5: going to grab pizza or beer or whatever, and there's

1382
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:12,919
Speaker 5: just some league wide brain farts where a guy goes

1383
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 5: way too cheap. So if you're constantly just bidding, you

1384
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:18,160
Speaker 5: know certain up to a certain point, you can snag

1385
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:20,640
Speaker 5: those guys that you didn't even expect to get cheap.

1386
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 5: And another really good tip I can give for auctions.

1387
01:00:25,240 --> 01:00:27,840
Speaker 5: It's sort of reverse of snake drafts. Snake drafts, I

1388
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 5: always urged to get guys at the end of a

1389
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 5: tier because there's gonna be a big drop off. When

1390
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 5: it comes to auction drafts, I actually urge to get

1391
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 5: a guy at the top of a tier. Usually the

1392
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 5: league kind of is an agreement with tiers in general,

1393
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:44,840
Speaker 5: and when there's one guy left and a tier, those

1394
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 5: are the guys that usually get overbid. So that's why

1395
01:00:47,640 --> 01:00:49,479
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the draft, people usually just pass

1396
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 5: up on a guy like DeAndre Hopkins because they know

1397
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 5: they can get they have their pick of DeVante Adams,

1398
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:55,919
Speaker 5: Michael Thomas, those guys.

1399
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 3: So the first guy nomina is usually the best value.

1400
01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 5: So you want to avoid being part of those guys

1401
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 5: that are panicking and trying to get to the last game.

1402
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 5: It's here and you know you end up overbidding. So

1403
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 5: I think those those general tips I think I've learned

1404
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,440
Speaker 5: over the years are great ways to kind of dominate

1405
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 5: your auction draft.

1406
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 1: Okay, we have a question about keepers ten team league.

1407
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 1: Do I keep Barkley in the first, Christian McCaffrey in

1408
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: the second, Adam Feelin in the ninth, or Chubb in

1409
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:25,640
Speaker 1: the fifteenth. I think I'd say pretty clearly Chubb in

1410
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 1: the fifteenth, But I might be wrong here. I agree.

1411
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's I would say they're all good.

1412
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 5: Maybe Feeling and the ninth is probably the one you

1413
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:36,840
Speaker 5: just wouldn't consider. You can make a case for all

1414
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 5: three running backs. Chubb in the fifteenth is just crazy

1415
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:39,480
Speaker 5: to me.

1416
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:44,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, similar one here, Kittle in around nineteen or Chubb

1417
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 1: in around sixteen. Kittle, Yeah, yeah, I agree with that,

1418
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:52,920
Speaker 1: Kittle Kill, Yeah, what picks would you need to get

1419
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 1: and return to trade your first round pick in a

1420
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 1: standard redraft?

1421
01:01:57,240 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 3: Two? Early?

1422
01:01:58,720 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 2: Maybe too early?

1423
01:01:59,640 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 1: Second?

1424
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 2: When's that?

1425
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:02,120
Speaker 4: I don't I'm not a big I don't know, like

1426
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 4: I don't play in a ton of weeks where we're

1427
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 4: like trading picks all crazy. So this is this might

1428
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:07,520
Speaker 4: be one better for you. But I would think if

1429
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 4: I if I'm trading out of the first round, I

1430
01:02:09,240 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 4: definitely want to kind of be able to get that

1431
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 4: advantage of of you know, getting that extra pick early

1432
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 4: on somewhere in that second round.

1433
01:02:16,720 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that, And then I would want

1434
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 1: to get some picks back later, maybe in the middle

1435
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 1: of the draft where I feel like I'm still able

1436
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 1: to find value. Uh And and I would say, like

1437
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 1: I kind of would think to earmark this is like, oh,

1438
01:02:30,720 --> 01:02:34,440
Speaker 1: this is my pick for a specific like player or

1439
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 1: a specific position, because like, if I have to sacrifice,

1440
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:42,040
Speaker 1: it's like I'm sacrificing for something in particular that I

1441
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 1: feel pretty strongly will be within this draft range and

1442
01:02:46,160 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 1: will make a difference for my team. But uh yeah,

1443
01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 1: in general, I kind of don't like to trade out

1444
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:55,640
Speaker 1: of the first round. Okay, final question here, who is

1445
01:02:55,680 --> 01:02:58,480
Speaker 1: the one player it's we tease this before it's all

1446
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:00,960
Speaker 1: it's all coming back together. Who is the one player

1447
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 1: you expect to surprise everybody and be this year's fantasy

1448
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: draft Darling, either like Philip Lindsay or Patrick Mahomes as

1449
01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 1: the example here. Mahomes I think is a little bit

1450
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,600
Speaker 1: different because people could kind of see that coming. But

1451
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:15,760
Speaker 1: Philip Lindsay truly came out of nowhere.

1452
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:17,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is I mean, I think some

1453
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 4: people will know this guy if you play like a

1454
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 4: lot of nasty but like more so, you know, the

1455
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:23,920
Speaker 4: average redraft player might not be as familiar. But we

1456
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 4: talked about him before Andy Isabella of the Cardinals. I

1457
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 4: think he has a chance to if things go all

1458
01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 4: the way right for him. I mean, he could even

1459
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 4: wead that team in reception. So I think Kirk will

1460
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 4: be that guy. But I think that the way they

1461
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 4: spread the ball around, and if you look at his

1462
01:03:39,000 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 4: production in college, I mean he was just tremendously unproductive,

1463
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 4: high volume guy. I think that it's possible that in

1464
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 4: that kind of simplified offense, I think that he could

1465
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 4: be a big, big factor in year one because he

1466
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 4: added to mension that I don't think Larry Fitzgerald really

1467
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 4: has at this point in terms of being able to separate,

1468
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,120
Speaker 4: and he could slide in right alongside Kirk as to

1469
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 4: that main guy in that offense.

1470
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 5: So I mean, like he's Lindsay was just you know,

1471
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 5: that's that's rare. That's probably not going to happen for

1472
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 5: another decade. So it's hard to establish what criteria that

1473
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 5: would be. But I'm going to get pretty meta with

1474
01:04:15,080 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 5: this and say Royce Freeman will be that guy this year.

1475
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 5: He'll take his job back from Philip Lindsay. I do

1476
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:24,120
Speaker 5: like Philip Lindsay, I think, you know, last year wasn't

1477
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 5: a flute by any means. It's just that's just the

1478
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,920
Speaker 5: way running back committees worked out, where just one guy

1479
01:04:29,000 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 5: can run away with it. But he did, you know,

1480
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 5: he fizzled out towards the end of last year. He's

1481
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 5: no lock to be that guy again this year. So

1482
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 5: I think Royce Freeman, I mean, he looked good last year.

1483
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:41,360
Speaker 5: It was just kind of unfortunate that Lendsay was so good.

1484
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 5: So he's a guy that, you know, if something happens

1485
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:46,919
Speaker 5: to Lendzie or Freeman breaks out next year, he could

1486
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 5: push RB one potential as a workhorse running back. You know,

1487
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 5: having said that this is this is an outlier I'm

1488
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:55,760
Speaker 5: trying to carve out. But you know, in that sort

1489
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 5: of scenario, he would kind of fit that Lindsay mole

1490
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:01,400
Speaker 5: of someone we were kind of over looking altogether. But

1491
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 5: could could be a guy that you can get really

1492
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 5: late and be you know, potential RB two RB one value.

1493
01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that Andy Isabella call. What would keep

1494
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:13,680
Speaker 1: me away from him in this scenario is that he

1495
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:16,840
Speaker 1: is his second rounder. So I mean, I think it

1496
01:05:16,840 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 1: would be maybe I don't know, like both almost like

1497
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 1: too easy to project him being awesome. But then also

1498
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 1: like he's a wide receiver. It's hard for those first

1499
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:29,760
Speaker 1: year wide receivers to fully break out. So I'm gonna

1500
01:05:29,760 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 1: go with two rookie running backs. One is Justice Hill,

1501
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:38,320
Speaker 1: fourth rounder, has great size, adjusted athleticism, great speed, explosiveness,

1502
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 1: was productive in college at a very young age, and

1503
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:43,560
Speaker 1: now is with the Baltimore Ravens who are going to

1504
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:45,880
Speaker 1: be very run heavy, and so I think he has

1505
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:48,880
Speaker 1: potential even if he doesn't become the lead back, but

1506
01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:51,640
Speaker 1: if he becomes the lead back, I think he could

1507
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:55,320
Speaker 1: just blow up and then another guy is a sixth rounder.

1508
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:58,400
Speaker 1: Trade me on Williams out of Texas. A and m

1509
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 1: was hugely productive of the lead back there all three

1510
01:06:01,800 --> 01:06:06,439
Speaker 1: seasons came out early as a junior. Isn't incredibly productive, Sorry,

1511
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 1: isn't incredibly athletic, but I think it's athletic enough. And

1512
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 1: if Joe Mixon is to suffer an injury, I think

1513
01:06:12,520 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 1: tray BIOND Williams would be the guy who would be

1514
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:17,600
Speaker 1: able to come in. And he has a three down

1515
01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 1: skill set where I think he really could be the

1516
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:23,520
Speaker 1: lead back. So those would be the two guys I

1517
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 1: would go with that. I could kind of see them

1518
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:28,560
Speaker 1: potentially coming out of nowhere. This was a good episode.

1519
01:06:28,560 --> 01:06:32,280
Speaker 1: It was a beefy episode. What are you guys working

1520
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 1: on for the upcoming week?

1521
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 4: I'm going to continue. I just put out a I'm

1522
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 4: sure you guys saw them Mahomes piece. I'm sure you

1523
01:06:39,200 --> 01:06:40,080
Speaker 4: saw the ten fades.

1524
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:41,640
Speaker 2: I'll have a ten or.

1525
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 4: I don't know if it's going to be ten, but

1526
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 4: I'll have a similar piece on the amount of the

1527
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 4: guys I like. And I also have a piece on

1528
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:51,200
Speaker 4: the giants and their dysfunction with Ghettom and all those guys.

1529
01:06:52,160 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 5: This week, I just came out with my piece I

1530
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:58,080
Speaker 5: plugged last week, the eighteen games I found.

1531
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 3: Value on for weeks two through seventy. Lines that are up.

1532
01:07:01,360 --> 01:07:04,680
Speaker 5: I play my initial season power ratings and some game

1533
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:08,240
Speaker 5: theory where teams will sort of be trending at certain

1534
01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:09,000
Speaker 5: points of the season.

1535
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:09,760
Speaker 3: So check that out.

1536
01:07:09,800 --> 01:07:11,760
Speaker 5: And I'm I'm doing a little side project with Chad

1537
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 5: Mellman where I'm capping NBA two K nineteen games that

1538
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:19,920
Speaker 5: he's simulating. So having some fun with that and going

1539
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 5: to be rolling out some content this week on that.

1540
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 1: It sounds like a fantastic use of your time, especially

1541
01:07:27,200 --> 01:07:33,160
Speaker 1: in May. Is that is like the ultimate off season project,

1542
01:07:33,360 --> 01:07:34,400
Speaker 1: you know, like.

1543
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:36,360
Speaker 2: Football?

1544
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,920
Speaker 1: We can think about that a little bit later. Right now,

1545
01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 1: I need to focus on basketball. Video games.

1546
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, especially when the wife's asking me, you know, we're

1547
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 5: getting ready to leave and she's like, what are you doing?

1548
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 3: Get over here?

1549
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:49,920
Speaker 5: And you know, I'm like, oh, I'm simulating this Golden

1550
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 5: State Warrior game on PlayStation. So really awkward conversation material

1551
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 5: right there.

1552
01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's good.

1553
01:07:55,720 --> 01:07:58,000
Speaker 1: It looks like you're playing a video game, that's right.

1554
01:07:58,240 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 1: I am And it's my work, so okay, the off

1555
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:05,160
Speaker 1: season rolls on. We will have another episode next week.

1556
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 1: Till then, that is going to do it for this

1557
01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 1: episode of the Action Network NFL podcast. Please rate, interview,

1558
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 1: the show, and iTunes for Shawn and Chris, I Am,

1559
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:15,880
Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman, Mattathew Oracle. See you again next episode.