1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done. 3 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: It's time for history. They're all in line. We're ready 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:20,840 Speaker 2: for this time. They're wrong in the Belmont Stakes. 5 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 3: We think of another two legs more back to win 6 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 3: win wind on the turn, beginning to pick up drive 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 3: near the back of. 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: The pack as the feo turns for home. 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: Any first do and opening on the other side, it's 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 2: trying first. 11 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 4: Drive as they come to the final wrong. 12 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 2: Get fedling on what's drove down to. 13 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 3: The line and a possible result here. 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 2: Lash that Bell Stakes. 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bed MGM 16 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 3: Brendan Glaschen, joined by Sean Zarrillo and Mike Conti. We 17 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: are back for horse racing content here on the Action 18 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: Network Podcast. This Saturday, the one hundred and fifty sixth 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: running of the Bell Belmont Steaks from beautiful Saratoga Race Course. 20 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 3: Mike Conti boots on the ground. He is in Saratoga. 21 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 3: He will be at this event this weekend. Excited to 22 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 3: get Mike's thoughts on the atmosphere as we work our 23 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 3: way through the card for these guys. This year's Belmont 24 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 3: Steaks of course being ran at the Saratoga Race Course. 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 3: It's a mile and a quarter as opposed to the 26 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 3: traditional mile and a half because of renovations at the 27 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: Belmont Racetracks over the next couple of years, Saratoga is 28 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 3: the home for the Belmont Steaks. Gentlemen, mistic Dan, not 29 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: your favorite for this coming race at Sierra Leone at 30 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 3: three to one on the morning line as the favorite. 31 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 3: Those are some things to consider heading into our discussion 32 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 3: for this coming weekend. So I'll start as we did 33 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 3: for our previous horse racing breakdowns, as Sean kind of 34 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: suggested going back a couple weeks now when we first 35 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 3: did this. We'll look at the field and decide what 36 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: horses we want to cut work to exactas and trifectas 37 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 3: as the episode rolls on. So Sean, I'll throw to 38 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 3: you first horses to cut in how we want to 39 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 3: shrink the field. 40 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 4: So there was a horse that Kantia and I had 41 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 4: both agreed on for the Derby, the number six dor Knock, 42 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 4: that I'm going to be tossing here. I do think 43 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 4: there is a decent amount of speed in this race, 44 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 4: and between sees the gray and mind frame, I don't 45 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 4: think that dor Knock is going to get an easy 46 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 4: lead to potentially win this race, and I don't really 47 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 4: see a ton of improvement from him from two to three, 48 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 4: So Doorknock is a complete toss for me. Then from 49 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 4: there I think the field gets a little bit tougher 50 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 4: to completely. 51 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: Toss horses out. 52 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 4: So the way I sort of analyzed this race was 53 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 4: deciding that the twenty twenty four edition of the Peter Pan, 54 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 4: which is the key prep race for the bell On Stakes, 55 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 4: was a little bit weaker than past editions in my opinion. Now, 56 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 4: Kantiy and I may disagree on this point, but I 57 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 4: do think you need to make a decision as to 58 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 4: whether you like the horses from the Peter Pan or 59 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 4: whether you don't. I this year did not, And I 60 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,119 Speaker 4: also don't think the peter Pan this year is as 61 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 4: indicative of a prep race as it has been in 62 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 4: years past. Number one ran at Aqueduct Park, not Aqueduct 63 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 4: Race Pors, not at. 64 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 1: Belmont Park four weeks before the Belmont Stakes. 65 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 4: It was run four weeks since the same timeline as 66 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 4: it typically is, but not being run at Saratoga or Belmont, 67 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 4: so it's not run on the same track, Big Sandy 68 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 4: Belma Park particularly very unique racing surface. 69 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: So I do think the. 70 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 4: Surface that they're running over tends to be a bit 71 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 4: indicative for the Belmont Stakes results. But I also just 72 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 4: didn't think it was a particularly strong class of horses 73 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,119 Speaker 4: running in there. You have Protective, who finished third. He's 74 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 4: a maiden these over four lifetime, second twice, third twice. 75 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 4: He's never gone past the mile in an eighth and 76 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 4: I'm not well. I think he does want the distance, 77 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 4: but I think he's the greenness of the three Pletcher 78 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 4: entries in here, so Protective can move forward at some point. 79 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: Just don't see him winning this race. The Wine Steward 80 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 4: was favored in the peter Pan. He's the number four 81 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 4: in here. All of his wins came sprinting as a 82 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 4: two year old. He's finished second three times stretching out 83 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 4: in distance. I don't know if he wants the distance. 84 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: And among the three horses from that Peter Pan Steaks, 85 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: he's the horse I'm most concerned about stretching out just 86 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 4: a little bit further to that mile on a quarter. 87 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 4: The number five Antiquarian who did win the Peter Pan. 88 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 4: He's probably the one I'm most interested in using but 89 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 4: as I said, I'm a bit lower on these three 90 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 4: horses relative to the rest of the field. But he 91 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 4: has been working well running after that Peter Pan and 92 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 4: should want the added ground end the Belmont Steak. So 93 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: the five Antiquarian probably not against completely. The four wind Steward, 94 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 4: the seven Protective, the six Door Knock are pretty close 95 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 4: to tosses for me, and I'm mostly trying to beat. 96 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 4: This is not horses I'm tossing, but I'm mostly trying 97 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,799 Speaker 4: to beat the three missed again and the one sees 98 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 4: the Gray, your Derby and your Preakness winners. Third race 99 00:04:57,960 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 4: in five weeks for both horses. This is the test 100 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 4: the champion. It's not so much about going the mile 101 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 4: and a half this year as it is just running 102 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 4: three times in five weeks and sees the Gray. Not 103 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 4: only he's not going to get an easy lead like 104 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 4: he did in the Preakness, but also he's just you know, 105 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 4: this is his sixth start since February. 106 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 1: He's run a ton. 107 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 4: Was never particularly high on this first I don't think 108 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 4: Kanty was either. He's run much better, getting to the 109 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 4: lead and showing this new running style, but it's also 110 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 4: had a beneficial track being a little bit wet the 111 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 4: past two times he's run as well, so a little bit. 112 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: Against Mexic down and sees the gray. 113 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 4: They are not tosses, though, my pure tosses the six 114 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 4: Door Knock, the seven Protective and the four Wine Steward 115 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 4: and I would hope Kanti and I at least a 116 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 4: line of the number six. 117 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 1: Okay, Mike inted at it. 118 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, we do. You know, look, I'm also talking tossing 119 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 2: door Knock. I'm also going to toss seven Protective, as 120 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 2: Sean mentioned. I mean, look, the horses graded steaks place 121 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: having two third place finishes, but the horse is still 122 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: a maiden. To come out and break your maiden in 123 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 2: the belmonts Artoka, I just don't think that it's happening. 124 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 2: So six and seven are definitely tosses for me. The 125 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 2: other two that I went and tossed, I'm tossing Honor Marie. 126 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 2: You know, he just I don't know. I mean, he 127 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 2: the track bias should have played into his favor in 128 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: the derby, and he just didn't run well. Now he 129 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 2: does get a jockey upgrade to Florent Drew, but still 130 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 2: I'm looking elsewhere and tossing Honor Murray. And the other one, 131 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 2: which I think is a little against you here, Sean, 132 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 2: that I'm going to toss is Resilience. I just again, 133 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: there's a lot of speed in here, and I think 134 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 2: that there are other horses with similar stalking styles to 135 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: Resilience that are better than Resilience in this spot. So 136 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 2: I'll be tossing the two, the six, the seven, and 137 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 2: the eight in here. Very good. 138 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 3: So Mike's shrinking his field a little bit more than Sean. 139 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 3: So with that in mind, Sean, you have a little 140 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 3: bit more flexibility, it seems. So who are some of 141 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 3: your face favorite wind contenders that you'd like to list 142 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 3: off based on the odds and where your feelings are. 143 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 4: Two horses I'm using primarily to win two horses I 144 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 4: like as long shots. The two horses might just toss 145 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 4: are my favorite long shots. But let's start with my 146 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 4: favorite wing contenders, and that would be the number nine 147 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 4: Sierre Leon, who I do think should get the pace 148 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 4: set up in here that he needs. As Mike mentioned, 149 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 4: I do see a decent amount of speed in this field. 150 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 4: We'll talk about the pace as we go through these 151 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 4: win contenders. But on the front end you should have 152 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 4: the one Sees the Gray, the sixth door Knock, who 153 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 4: I think will eventually fade, and then the ten mind Frame. 154 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: Those are going to be your pace setters. 155 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 4: Right behind them, You're going to have another flight of 156 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 4: about four horses, which includes the two Resilience, the three 157 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 4: Mystic Dan, the four Wine Steward, and the five Antiquarian. 158 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 4: Then you're going to have another break of horses, and 159 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 4: that's where you start getting well. Protective will be in 160 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 4: there somewhere, you know, doing his running. I don't necessarily 161 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 4: know where he's going to end up. But then you're 162 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 4: going to have another break of horses, and I think 163 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 4: sier Leone is going to be a bit closer to. 164 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: That second fight of horses than he was in the derby. 165 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 4: And then you go a little bit further back and 166 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 4: you have Honor Marie, who's your deepest closer. So just 167 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: in terms of how you see the field playing out, 168 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 4: there's going to be more pressure on Seas the Gray 169 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 4: here than there was in that Brightness. They let him 170 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 4: get on an easy lead. I thought it was a 171 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 4: huge miscalculation and absolutely critical error letting him get loose 172 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 4: on the lead, but they did. He's able to run 173 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 4: around the track pretty easily. Not going to get that 174 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 4: opportunity here. I think my mind frame is going to 175 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 4: provide a lot of pressure. I think door knock is 176 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 4: going to provide enough pressure in that second flight running 177 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 4: behind them is going to be quick enough that I 178 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 4: do think they will be going fast on the front end, 179 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 4: So I expect Sierra Leone to get a good pace 180 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,599 Speaker 4: to close into at the end here. Typically in the 181 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 4: Belmont Stakes with the mile and a half, I don't 182 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 4: like closers. You want horses who are honored near the lead, 183 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,239 Speaker 4: who can sort of carry it that final couple furlongs 184 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 4: because horses don't typically run that. 185 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: Mile and a half. 186 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 4: We're shortening up here a little bit to that mile 187 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 4: and a quarter, and I think it makes the race 188 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 4: play out a bit more honestly, so, Sierra Leone thought 189 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 4: he run ran an absolutely tremendous Kentucky Derby. Maybe even 190 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 4: ran better than Misstic ten when you consider the trip 191 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 4: Mystic Dan got getting it on the rail inside and 192 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 4: saving on that ground. But I mean, Sierra Leone has 193 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 4: really impressed me, and I was not particularly high on 194 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 4: him going to the Derby. One because the traffic trouble. 195 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 4: Two you know, because just finding an area to close 196 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 4: to him the derby can be nearly impossible times and 197 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 4: won't have you know, half as many horses to deal 198 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 4: with here in this spot. So think Sierra Leone gets 199 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 4: good set up, think he's probably the most likely winner. 200 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 4: But mind Frame is a potential free the number ten. 201 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 4: He's only run twice two lifetime starts. He has the 202 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 4: bias highest buyer speed score in this field at one 203 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 4: of three in his debut ran in ninety seven in 204 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 4: his last start on Kentucky Derby Day on the undercard, 205 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 4: but didn't have to work particularly hard. He was under 206 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 4: a hand ride in the stretch there, so that speed 207 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,599 Speaker 4: score probably could have been a little bit higher. He 208 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 4: is one of only three horses in this field to 209 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 4: cry one hundred buyer speed figures. Here Leon hasn't surpassed 210 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 4: a ninety nine, so there's a lot that mind Frame 211 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 4: is up against here, going in integrated stakes for the 212 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 4: first time, stretching out to ten furlongs for the first time, 213 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 4: facing graded stakes winners for the first time, so going up. 214 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 2: Against the lot. 215 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 4: But if there is one freak in this field, if 216 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 4: there's one horse that's likely to make a significant jumper, 217 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 4: potentially to be a Breeder's Cup Classic champion at the 218 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 4: end of the year. I do think mind Frame is 219 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 4: probably the most talented three year old in training, so 220 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 4: hard to leave them off of my wing contender tickets. 221 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 4: And I think I'll be focusing on these two in 222 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 4: horizontal wagers and probably in vertical wagers as well. The 223 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 4: nine and the ten my two top win selections and 224 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 4: the two lowest odds on the board. But I should 225 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 4: mention I think Missing Dan, I think Sees the Gray 226 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 4: are going to attract enough betting attention that those four 227 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 4: I think are going to be very close in odds 228 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 4: by the time post time comest. 229 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 3: Mike CONTI favorite wing contenders, and if you'd like as well, 230 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 3: please weigh in on these shortened distance and how that 231 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 3: might factor in to your analysis. 232 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, I think first and foremost 233 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 2: favorite wintenders. You know, I'm not gonna let Sierra Leone 234 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 2: beat me, but there's still something to be said. This 235 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 2: horse consistently lugs in in the stretch. There's been a 236 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 2: jockey change, which is important to note. Tyler gaffleone is 237 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 2: no longer riding Sierra Leone, and I really like Tyler. 238 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 2: I respect Tyler. I would say it's a jockey upgrade 239 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,239 Speaker 2: to Flavian Pratt. Though now can Flavian be the difference 240 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 2: for Sierra Leone to get Sierra Leone to not lug in. 241 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: I think that's the big issue here is that he 242 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 2: just is still so green in the stretch. I just 243 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 2: don't know what to make of that. And I get it, 244 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 2: he's a super talented horse, but at nine to five 245 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 2: it's just tough. So I'm looking for value elsewhere. I 246 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 2: actually went, as Sean mentioned, you know, you're either gonna 247 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 2: be with or against some of these peter Pan horses, 248 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 2: and I'm going with one of the peter Pan horses. 249 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 2: I'm going with my top selection to Antiquarian, the number 250 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: five at twelve to one on the morning line. This 251 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 2: is a very similar route to what Arcangelo took last 252 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 2: year to win the Belmont. The other aspect of that 253 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 2: that I will have to call out though, is that 254 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 2: Arcangelo was like one of two horses in the last 255 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 2: thirty years that won the peter Pan and then won 256 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 2: the Belmont. But Sean already mentioned this year's Peter Pan 257 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 2: was run at Aqueduct, not run at Belmont, and this 258 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 2: year's Belmont is being run at Saratoga, not at Belmont. 259 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 2: So I don't know as though that the Peter Pan 260 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 2: is as important. You know, you look back and add 261 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: an Antiquarian and two back ran in the Louisiana Derby 262 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 2: horse broke through the gate, And anytime a horse breaks 263 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,080 Speaker 2: through the gate before a race, it's just exerting so 264 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: much energy for a horse. To ask them to come 265 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 2: back and run really well in that race is really difficult. 266 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 2: And he still put up a ninety two buyer speed figure, 267 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 2: which now means that he's paired his last two buyer 268 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 2: speed figures at ninety two, which is an angle that 269 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,559 Speaker 2: I owe love because you're going to get one of 270 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 2: two things that then are going to happen. Either the 271 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 2: horse is going to make a sizeable jump up or 272 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 2: there's potential that the horse is going to regress. Based 273 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 2: on Antiquarian's career, though I like where he's heading. His 274 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 2: stalking style fits really really well in here. And you know, 275 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 2: we've talked a little bit offline about this, but the 276 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: weather is somewhat unknown for this week in Saratoga. I mean, 277 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 2: it's been. It says it's going to pour rain, it 278 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 2: says it's not. You know, what are we going to get? 279 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 2: We had some drizzle. We're recording this Thursday morning. We 280 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 2: had some drizzle this morning. The heavy rain is supposed 281 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 2: to come tonight. Who knows for this weekend. But I 282 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 2: do think it's important to note Antiquarian has run over 283 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 2: and won over a sloppy track. So Antiquarian is going 284 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 2: to be my top selection. And you know Sean mentioned 285 00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 2: mind Frame. You know, this horse, I mean just seems 286 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 2: to be an absolute freak, you know, winning too his 287 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 2: first and only two careers starts by over a combined 288 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 2: twenty lane. I mean, you don't do that unless you 289 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 2: have significant talent. And it's not like he beat nobody's 290 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 2: He beat some decent horses in those races. Now the 291 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: big step up in class, you know what happens. But 292 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 2: it's a pletcher Rapoli irad horse. They paid six hundred 293 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 2: thousand for this horse. You know, clearly the horse has 294 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 2: some serious talent. And you know, I know Sean mentioned that. 295 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 2: You know he thinks that Mindframe will press the lead. 296 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 2: Mindframe has shown some versatility though right and his Maiden 297 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: when he stopped and did it super professionally, just that 298 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 2: like push Button, knew when to go. Irad didn't even 299 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: really need to ask him in that race and then 300 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 2: took him gate to wire last time out in the 301 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 2: Allowance race at Churchill. So you know, I think he's 302 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 2: got versatility and so hopefully, you know, Doorknock will Obviously 303 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: we know that he'll go, and you know there may 304 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 2: be some others in here that are going to be 305 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: much more forwardly placed. So you know, my top selection 306 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: and my three win contenders are going to be number 307 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 2: five Antiquarian, number nine Sierra Leone and number ten mind Frame, 308 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 2: with Antiquarian being my top selection. And I think Brendan 309 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: you had asked about, you know, with the Belmont being 310 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 2: run at Saratoga at a different distance, you know, how 311 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 2: do you think about it? Well, I think there's a 312 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 2: couple of things to think about. Yes, it's the difference 313 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 2: in the distance. And Sean mentioned this too, and I'd 314 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 2: love to hear Sean's take on this. But Belmont is 315 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 2: known as the Big Sandy, and there's two things about 316 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: the Big Sandy of Belmont Park. One is they have 317 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 2: really wide, sweeping turns, so the turns aren't as tight, 318 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 2: and the track like it's called big sandy for a reason. 319 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 2: The surface is a sandy or consistency being down in 320 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 2: Long Island right for Belmont. So you know, I think 321 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 2: that there definitely are some differences. And I think it's 322 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 2: also fair to point out Saratoga is known as the 323 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 2: Graveyard of Favorites, and I would argue that most of 324 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 2: the time that's not necessarily track condition. It's more because 325 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: the quality of horses that we get up here at Saratoga. 326 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: But it's still something to note. So does that then 327 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 2: make you think differently? You know about about Sierra Leone 328 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: at nine to five, So I don't know, Sean, what 329 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: your thoughts are of the difference between the mile and 330 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 2: a quarter mile and a half big sandy Saratoga Graveyard 331 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 2: of Favorites. What are your thoughts there? 332 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 4: I think the biggest reason why and with the wide 333 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 4: sweeping terns that I think that's the biggest reason why 334 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 4: I like horses to be a little bit more forward. 335 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 4: It seems like by the time they get to the 336 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 4: end of that turn, they've done so much energy to 337 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 4: get around it they have nothing left to kick on 338 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 4: in the stretch, they're just sort of like coming home, 339 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 4: but there's really nothing left in the gas tank to 340 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 4: actually pass with their horses with so horses who can 341 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 4: make big middle moves like Resilience. That's why I'm a 342 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 4: little bit higher on him here. It seemed like he 343 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 4: had a big middle move coming in that derby before 344 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 4: he ultimately flattened out. I don't know if I would 345 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 4: have liked that if he had to run around the 346 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 4: big turns, the wider turns at Belmont Park, But in 347 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 4: terms of running at Saratoga I think that's a little 348 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 4: bit more conducive to his styles. So yeah, you know, 349 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 4: I think it just sort of changes. Like like I said, 350 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 4: with my my chances, that I would upgrade sire Leone 351 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 4: actually running well here, that I would upgrade on a 352 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 4: Marie running well here. I think it just makes the 353 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 4: race play a little bit more fair, not only in 354 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 4: terms of the distance, because you're gonna get a bit 355 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 4: more of an honest pace set up. Like the pace 356 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,640 Speaker 4: could be wild in the Bell Mode stakes. It's sometimes 357 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 4: one horse goes way out in front of the lead 358 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 4: and sees if anybody else could catch him. Sometimes they 359 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,239 Speaker 4: go really slow trying to save everything for the end, 360 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 4: and everybody tires out because. 361 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 1: It's a mile and a half anyway. 362 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 4: But yeah, I just think, you know, you get a 363 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 4: more accurate picture of what the pace setup is going 364 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 4: to be considering a lot of the horses have run 365 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 4: this distance or at least very close to this distance. 366 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 4: And then beyond that, I think it plays out in 367 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 4: a pretty fair manner considering we know that these horses 368 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 4: can get that distance. We know Sierre Leone could get 369 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 4: the mile on a quarter. You know, we don't know 370 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 4: if he would have been able to get in the 371 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 4: mile and a half. We don't know if any of 372 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 4: them would have been. So yeah, we just have more 373 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 4: information about how horses run. 374 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 1: At this distance. 375 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 4: And then I think, you know, subtracting for the wider turns, 376 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 4: that think upgrades a horse for me resilience. 377 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 3: With Father's Day right around the corner, what do you 378 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 3: give to the man who has everything? 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Let's go two favorite long 398 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 3: shots Zarrillo who might stand out to you from a 399 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 3: value standpoint. 400 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: Yes, as I mentioned too. 401 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 4: Of the horses that Mike tossed the number eight Honor Marie, 402 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 4: the first one I want to mention this was the 403 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,959 Speaker 4: buzz horse the week at the Derby, And as I 404 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 4: said before, that Derby ree to five horses will have 405 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 4: their chances ruined immediately at the starting gate, and he 406 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 4: was one of them. Now, don't necessarily need position for 407 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 4: Honor Marie as much as other horses do. He wanted 408 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 4: to be a deep closer. He wanted to be further 409 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 4: back in the pack and come running late. But he 410 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 4: got slammed out of the gate and just got crushed 411 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 4: by a bunch of horses. And once he did end 412 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 4: up running, he did decent work, but basically had no 413 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 4: opportunity to ever win that race or getting the money 414 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 4: in a smaller field. I don't see any reason why 415 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 4: I would like Honor Marie any less than I did 416 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,880 Speaker 4: on Derby Day, and he's facing a way less classy 417 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 4: field of horses here. So considering I liked him a 418 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 4: bit on Derby Day, he wasn't one of my top 419 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 4: two long shot selections. He was probably third or fourth. 420 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 4: I preferred domestic product. I preferred resilience, and then Mystic 421 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 4: Dan and Ono Marie were kind of on that next 422 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 4: line of longer shots for me. So liked him about 423 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 4: the same as I did with mixtic Dan coming into 424 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 4: the Derby, and for that matter, you know, I feel 425 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 4: really similarly about six or seven of the horses in 426 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 4: this race. I mean to be honest with you, Kanti, like, 427 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,680 Speaker 4: I think if any of these forces besides for door 428 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 4: knock and protective like, if eight of these ten horses won, 429 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised. Really, I think this is I 430 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 4: think this is the most wide open of the three 431 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 4: races we've seen thus far. I think there's the most 432 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 4: potential wing contenders in here. And I think it's because 433 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 4: I view a lot of these horses at a very 434 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 4: similar degree. If I was to power rank them out, 435 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 4: I don't think I would see a lot of separation 436 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 4: between them. So considering Hono Marie Resilience, they were the 437 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 4: bit classier horses who actually ran in the Derby. They 438 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,719 Speaker 4: were both working well going into the Derby, have had 439 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,159 Speaker 4: really good workout reports coming out of the Derby, and 440 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 4: specifically to Resilience, his trainer, Bill Mott, was not planning 441 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 4: on running him here. He wanted to give him some 442 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 4: more time off, but he was so impressed without let 443 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 4: his training, he decided to stick him into this race. 444 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 4: So resilience made As I said, he made that really 445 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 4: big middle move in the Derby. Larry Colemas got so 446 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 4: excited seeing him, he actually completely lost side a mystic Dan. 447 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:26,919 Speaker 4: He was running inside on the rail and he was 448 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 4: so focused on resilience. It made it sound like he 449 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 4: was the one who was getting that real trip because 450 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 4: Larry Colmas was so focused on resilience. But you know, 451 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 4: the one mark I can make against him as the 452 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 4: buyer speed figure, he's a career best ninety buyer. The 453 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 4: other real contenders in this race are closer to ninety 454 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 4: nine one hundred and one oh one, you know, mind 455 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 4: for him as that one oh three, So he needs 456 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 4: to bank a big jump if he's going to win 457 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 4: this race. I do think it's possible. I think it's 458 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 4: likelier that he runs underneath in second or third, so 459 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 4: I'll be kieing him, probably in exactness trifectas be using 460 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 4: Honor Marie as well, the two resilience to eight Honor 461 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,120 Speaker 4: Marie my preferred long shots in this race. Just think 462 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 4: you're getting some decent value after you know, performances in 463 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 4: the Derby that specifically for Honor Marie weren't great. But 464 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 4: I do think there's a class level compared to the 465 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:15,880 Speaker 4: rest of the field that these Derby horses have. 466 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 2: Like long shots. Yeah, I mean, you know, Antiquarian top 467 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 2: Selection at twelve to one, so obviously that's going to 468 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 2: be a long shot. I don't know if i'd say 469 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 2: that this is necessarily a long shot, but a horse 470 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 2: that we haven't really spoken much about or given much 471 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 2: love to, and I think it's hard not to. I mean, 472 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan at five to one. While that may not 473 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 2: be the longest shot on the board, I think when 474 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 2: you take into account the horse that we're talking about, 475 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby winner and who ran really well in 476 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 2: my opinion, in that Preakness, and you know, hasn't done 477 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 2: a ton wrong and continue to, you know, go against 478 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 2: these naysayers of Mystic Dan, I think five to one 479 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 2: there's value there. So again, not a long shot, and 480 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 2: I think Sean mentioned it earlier. He's going to take money. 481 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 2: But if you get anything around that five to one mark, 482 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 2: I think that's a horse that you have to seriously 483 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 2: consider playing, you know, given what he's done and you 484 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 2: know kind of how he continues to progress. And Kenny 485 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 2: McPeak said that he's been training really well, so you know, 486 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 2: I think that those are the two I mean, Antiquarian 487 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: and Mystic Dan that I'm most interested in. You know, 488 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 2: the wine Stewart is another horse. Just to mention fifteen 489 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 2: to one the good and the bad. This horse has 490 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:36,719 Speaker 2: been favored in five of six starts lifetime went from 491 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 2: you know, finishing the Breeders' Cup Futurity last October at Keenland, 492 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 2: ran second, which was the first time at a route 493 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 2: distance of a mile on a sixteenth was off until April, 494 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 2: and then came back in the Lexington and ran second 495 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 2: in the Lexington, then ran second in the Peter Pan. 496 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: You know, obviously the distance isn't so much a question, 497 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 2: but the question now becomes is like does the horse 498 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 2: love to win? Did we see the best of this 499 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 2: horse early in his two year old season? But somebody 500 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 2: else you know, to think about as you're putting some 501 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 2: bets together at fifteen to one. 502 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 3: Okay, very good, Let's move on. Curious as how you 503 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 3: guys and you guys have been building towards this, so 504 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 3: let's discuss exotics and then will work our way to 505 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 3: trifectas as well, and some superfectas. 506 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 4: Sorillo yeah, So my top two win selections it's nine 507 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 4: to early on the ten mind Frame. I'm going to 508 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 4: use those as win contenders on top of on Marie 509 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 4: the eight and Resilience to two. So there's a bunch 510 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 4: of different ways you could play the EXACTA. You could 511 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 4: just play an exact A key then nine and ten 512 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 4: on top of the two and eight. That would be 513 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 4: the simplest way to do it. You could also sort 514 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 4: of structure them individually as cold tickets. So I'm going 515 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 4: to avoid playing the nine to ten exactor the ten 516 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 4: nine Exacta that would be the top two selections right, 517 00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 4: lowest odds on the board. Just don't think there's enough 518 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 4: value hunting taking the favorite and the second choice in 519 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 4: terms of the exact pool. But I'm going to try 520 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,400 Speaker 4: to pair one of them with one of the long 521 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 4: shots in second. So you could play the nine eight exactor, 522 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 4: which would be Sieria Leon and on Marie. You could 523 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,360 Speaker 4: play the ten eight Exacta, which would be mind Frame 524 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 4: a Ono Marie, And then you could also do the 525 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 4: nine to two and the ten two, which would be 526 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 4: either Sierra leone and Resilience or mind Frame and Resilience. 527 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 4: So trying to get one of those top two selections 528 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 4: in first, one of those longer shot horses that I 529 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 4: prefer in second. As I said, you could also just 530 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 4: make a single ticket bet and do the nine and 531 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 4: the ten on top of the two and the eight. 532 00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 4: So it gonna be mixing those four horses around, but 533 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 4: with the nine or the ten winning. 534 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 3: How about you, Kanti, how are you building yours? 535 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? You know, I'm gonna build mine in a way 536 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 2: where you know, again, gotta figure out, you know, value 537 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 2: and extract value. I'm going to play Antiquarian on top, 538 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 2: and then I will play two different exactas, and I 539 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 2: will play Antiquarian a straight exacta Antiquarian on top of 540 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 2: Sierra leone, and the other exactly that I will play 541 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:04,120 Speaker 2: will be Antiquarian on top of number three Mystic Dan 542 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 2: and also number ten mind Frame. 543 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 1: I think you know, we've talked about it. 544 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan probably comes down a little bit in odds, 545 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 2: probably gets closer to Mindframe, so those exactas will probably 546 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 2: be more equal in value. The thing to keep in 547 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 2: mind is, while there'll be more equal in value, by 548 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 2: putting two horses in second place, you're essentially cutting your 549 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 2: value in half, right, because the ticket is going to 550 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 2: cost you double, and so you're cutting your value in half. 551 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 2: But again with those odds, I think that you know, 552 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 2: with Antiquarian on top of twelve to one, I think 553 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 2: we'll get enough value there. 554 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 1: To begin with the. 555 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 3: Action Network podcast, Everybody is brought to you by bet 556 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 3: MGM use the bonus code action when signing up to 557 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 3: get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets 558 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 3: if your first bet does not win. 559 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 2: For new users in. 560 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 3: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 561 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 3: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 562 00:26:58,520 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 3: and Wyoming. 563 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: Terms it can editions apply. 564 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 3: It must be twenty one plus gambling problem call one 565 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 3: eight hundred gambler. How about trifect is superfecta sean A. 566 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: Couple of ways you can do this. 567 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 4: The KBAN method would be the one dollar trybox. There's 568 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 4: five horses that I like in this field. You know, 569 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 4: Antiquarian was a little bit behind the other four for me. 570 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 4: But the two Resilience, the five Antiquarian, the eight Honor 571 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 4: Marie the nine Si Leon, the ten mind Frame. You're 572 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 4: trying to beat Misstic Dan. You're trying to beat Sees 573 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 4: the Gray. In that scenario, I think you would get 574 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 4: a decent payout. If you ended up hitting three of 575 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 4: those horses. That would be a one dollar trifecta box 576 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 4: that would cost you sixty dollars. I think the better 577 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 4: way to do it would be a structured trifecta. So 578 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 4: you're gonna have three lines, right for your trifecta. Line one, 579 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 4: I'm gonna use the nine sier leone the ten mind 580 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 4: Frame as my wing contenders. Line two, I'm gonna use 581 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 4: those two horses. I'm also gonna include my two long shots, 582 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 4: so the two Resilience Uh, the eight Honor Marie, the 583 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 4: nine sier Leon, the ten mind Frame, any of those 584 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 4: horses in second place. Then on the third line, you're 585 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,439 Speaker 4: gonna use those same four horses, the two, eight, nine 586 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 4: to ten. You can also add in the one Seize 587 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 4: the Gray, you can add in the five Antiquarian, and 588 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 4: you can add in you can add in the three 589 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 4: Mystic Dan and then so that's a thirty dollars trifector right, 590 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 4: That one dollar ticket is going to cost you thirty dollars. 591 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 4: But then you can flip that second and third line, 592 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 4: so you're actually playing it twice and it's costing you 593 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 4: the same as that one. 594 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 1: Dollar trifecta box. 595 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 4: So always ways you can trim down your tickets, play 596 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 4: things a little bit better. Instead of me boxing up 597 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,239 Speaker 4: those five horses when I don't really give resilience or 598 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 4: honor Marie or antiquarian like as big of a chance 599 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 4: as winning as I. 600 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: Do see E leone. 601 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,360 Speaker 4: Or mind frame for that matter, I think structuring it 602 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 4: and putting those two horses in first, putting your long 603 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 4: shots with those two horses in second, and then building 604 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 4: out a little bit more of a spread on that 605 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 4: third line gives you better chance of actually cashing that 606 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 4: ticket based on where. 607 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 1: You think the horses can fall. 608 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 4: So yeah, always better way to play things. Don't just 609 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 4: caveman the box, you know, think how you might want 610 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 4: to structure and put these horses in different positions. But 611 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 4: just to recap the nine to ten on top of 612 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 4: the two eight nine ten on top of the one, two, three, five, 613 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 4: eight nine ten one, nowur take it. 614 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: I'll cost you thirty bucks, right, very good, Mike. 615 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 3: Your builds for trifecta's superfectas. 616 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll play a try in here and the trifecta 617 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 2: that I'll play, I'll play three Mystic Dan, five Antiquarian, 618 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 2: and the ten month mind Frame in the first position. 619 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 2: In the second position, I will play those same three horses, 620 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: and then I will also add in Sierra Leone into 621 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 2: that second spot. And then in the third spot, I'll 622 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 2: play those four horses Mystic Dan, Antiquarian, Sierra Leone, mind Frame, 623 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: add in Seize the Gray and Wine Stewart as well 624 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 2: into that last and third spot for the trifectam. 625 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 1: Excellent. 626 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 3: Okay, As we mentioned off the top, Mike Conti has 627 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 3: got boots down in Saratoga. 628 00:29:58,920 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 2: He is there. 629 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 3: So you're consuming quite a bit of horse racing this weekend, Mike. 630 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,479 Speaker 3: As far as the undercard bets, anything that you're eyeing 631 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 3: earlier in the weekend. 632 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you know early. I mean, look, Saturday 633 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 2: is just an amazing day of racing, and I think 634 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 2: you know there there's a horse that I'm interested in 635 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 2: earlier in the day Saturday and Race nine, the gip Or. 636 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 2: It's a five and a half sprint on the turf, 637 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:27,719 Speaker 2: and I think Sean mentioned this in one of our 638 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 2: previous videos and podcasts talking about how you know if 639 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 2: you're new to horse racing, there's nothing more exciting than 640 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 2: watching a five and a half for a long race 641 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 2: on the turf, because it's just it can just be 642 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 2: mayhem right. There's horses that are gonna just be sent 643 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 2: from the lead. There's gonna be closers that are coming late, 644 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,040 Speaker 2: and it's gonna and it's a lot of fun to watch. 645 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 2: There's a horse in here, so this is a race 646 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 2: for you know, any sex of horse. But typically you 647 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 2: see boys versus boys and girls versus the girls. Well, 648 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 2: there's a pillion here, So a girl who's running against 649 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 2: the boys, and she's run against the boys a couple 650 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 2: of times overseas and that's number six Star of Mystery. 651 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 2: So this is race number nine on Saturday, number six 652 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 2: Star of Mystery. She's been ultra impressive. She's run against 653 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,719 Speaker 2: the boys the last four races. She's beaten the boys twice, 654 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 2: ran second the other two times. Trainer Charlie Appleby first 655 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 2: start in North America. So when he ships a horse 656 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,640 Speaker 2: over from overseas to North America to run in the US, 657 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 2: he's winning at forty five percent, Flavian Pratt gets the mount. 658 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 2: Pratt doesn't ride a ton for Appleby, but when he does, 659 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 2: he wins. In the last year, Pratt's had three mounts 660 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 2: for Appleby. He's won all three for a positive ROI 661 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 2: of nine dollars and twenty nine cents. So there's something 662 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 2: to be said in a really deep field. I'm looking 663 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 2: for some value in At six to one, it's a 664 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: horse that I'm getting really excited about. Sean, any best 665 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 2: bets for you on the undercard. 666 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 4: So same race, the jiper I kind of like the 667 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 4: number nine Souss the summer. At twenty to one, I'm 668 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 4: just hearing a lot of buzz about the way this 669 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 4: horse is working out this week. So if I'm building 670 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 4: out horizontal tickets, I'll be using the six with you, 671 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 4: but I'm not going to leave the nine off of 672 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 4: those horizontals at twenty to one. In terms of the 673 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 4: met mile, the met mile is my favorite race pretty 674 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 4: much in horse racing every year. 675 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 1: I don't know why. 676 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 4: I think it's just the fact that you get usually 677 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 4: a pretty good field, but oftentimes you get sprinter stretching out, 678 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 4: you get those distance horses cutting back and meeting in 679 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 4: a race that they don't normally face one another in, 680 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 4: or you know, meeting in a place where they don't 681 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 4: because it's unlikely that those horses typically hook up. But 682 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 4: at a mile distance, you know, it's reasonable that you 683 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 4: can get them paying up together. So this should be 684 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 4: a match race between the six White to Borrow and 685 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 4: the two National Treasure. I prefer White to Barrio the six. 686 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 4: Neither of these horses ran well in the Saudi Cup, 687 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 4: both coming back for their first start since, but they 688 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 4: do have a lot more class than the rest of 689 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 4: the horses in this field. If I was picking an upset, 690 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 4: it would probably be Blazing sevens. But if I'm building 691 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,920 Speaker 4: out horizontals, I'm going to be focusing on the number six. 692 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 4: White to Barrio just has the best speed scores in 693 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 4: this field. He take his last four average speed scores 694 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 4: one of six six one oh three. National Treasure has 695 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 4: a couple of sub one hundred scores in there. So 696 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 4: I just think White to Barro is a touch faster, 697 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 4: and I think in that smaller field, the six horse field, 698 00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 4: he should be able to run his race without very 699 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 4: much issues. So just taking the fastest horse in the 700 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 4: short field and probably going against National Treasure slightly in 701 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,640 Speaker 4: terms of horizontals. Any thoughts between uh, White Barrio and 702 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 4: National Treasure. 703 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 2: I was on National Treasure in the Preakness last year. 704 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,760 Speaker 2: I think White to Barrio obviously laast Year found something. 705 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 2: How much weight do you want to put behind the 706 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,280 Speaker 2: Saudi Cup? I don't know. I've always personally just been 707 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 2: a huge fan of Blazing Sevens. You mentioned him. I 708 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 2: was actually going to ask you, if you didn't talk 709 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 2: about them, what your thoughts were. Chad always spots his 710 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 2: horses in the right places. The horse has been off 711 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 2: for like the horse was off for a while, right 712 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 2: eight nine months, whatever it was, comes back wins an 713 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 2: allowance race that clearly they were just using as a 714 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 2: prep race. Chad knows what he's up against with National 715 00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 2: Treasure and with White a Barrio in here, and still 716 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 2: to put Blazing Sevens in here. I like that that 717 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 2: idea at eight to one of giving me some value. 718 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 2: I mean, I agree with you, I like White to 719 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 2: Barrio over National Treasure, but if I'm looking to attract 720 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 2: value there, it's definitely Blazing Sevens. Yeah. 721 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 4: I think in terms of like multi race tickets, you 722 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 4: probably have to choose one of National Treasure or white 723 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 4: a Barrio if you really want to find value. But 724 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,719 Speaker 4: if you want to include a second horse, I think 725 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 4: Blazing sevens with one of them would be the way 726 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,799 Speaker 4: to go to still find value if you know either 727 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,919 Speaker 4: It's and Glash. 728 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 2: Before we sign up. The only other thing I want 729 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 2: to mention Friday. We have the Eggcorn, which is essentially 730 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 2: the female version of the Belmont. And look number eight 731 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 2: or number excuse me, number nine Torpedo Anna, who was 732 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 2: my Oaks pick and the Oaks winner. You know Kmick Peak, 733 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 2: He's not ever been higher on a horse than he 734 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 2: is on Thorpedo Anna. And frankly, if Mystic Dan hadn't 735 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,839 Speaker 2: won the Derby, I think that we would have seen 736 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 2: Thorpedo Anna either run in the Preakness or in the Belmont. 737 00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 2: And he was asked about that this week and Kenny 738 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 2: McPeek said, he was like, I don't want to run 739 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 2: two of my best horses against one another in the Belmont. 740 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:18,240 Speaker 2: So again, I mean, I think that she's an absolute freak. 741 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,399 Speaker 2: I understand that I'm talking about a horse that's eight 742 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 2: to five. Sometimes eight to five can be value though, right, 743 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 2: And I don't think that she's gonna go off eight 744 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:27,920 Speaker 2: to five. I think it's gonna be lower, so you 745 00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 2: are going to need to extract value by playing either 746 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 2: the late pick four the late pick five. I think 747 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 2: the late pick four sequence is really interesting. Stay tuned 748 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:37,960 Speaker 2: to Action Network. I'll have a write up on that 749 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,399 Speaker 2: late pick four for everybody. But I think the other 750 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,839 Speaker 2: horse in the Eggcorn that's interesting to me, a horse 751 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 2: that's progressing really nicely, is my main squeeze number five 752 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,120 Speaker 2: at twelve to one. Trainer Mike Maker always seems to 753 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 2: have his horses primed and ready to go, especially in 754 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 2: these route distance type races. So for the Eggcorn, I'm 755 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 2: Thorpedo Anna all the way, especially as a wind contender, 756 00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 2: and I'll be playing an exact Torpedo Anna over my 757 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:06,000 Speaker 2: main squeeze. 758 00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 1: Yeah. 759 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,920 Speaker 4: I was probably gonna pick Therpedo Anna if she was 760 00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 4: in the Beaumont Steaks and she's that, she's that. 761 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 3: Legit Zarrillo, Kanti, great work, looking forward to the weekend, Kanty, 762 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,800 Speaker 3: Like I said, enjoy it. I hope you brought a poncho. 763 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 3: If it does rain, stay dry and give us an 764 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 3: update on the gravel. Even though you can't do the 765 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 3: sand very good. Find Zerrilla and Kanti on the over 766 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,759 Speaker 3: the Action Network in the app and you can also 767 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,200 Speaker 3: find the video version of our podcast on the Action 768 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 3: Network YouTube page. If you found us there, great Please 769 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,800 Speaker 3: subscribe to our channel for Shon Zerrella, Mike Conti, Brendon Glasheen. 770 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us for our Belmont Stakes preview again 771 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,920 Speaker 3: taking place at Saratoga a bit at a shorter distance 772 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:47,520 Speaker 3: as we know off the top, so we keep. 773 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 1: That in mind when you make your picks. 774 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,319 Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by 775 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 3: bet MGM. 776 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 2: A network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 777 00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 778 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 779 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler