WEBVTT - Lululemon Sprints Ahead on Innovation

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Jessaminton, deputy team leader for the Acts team, and

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<v Speaker 1>up here again with a Doug Prisoner of Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm looking forward to looking more under the hood, Doug.

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<v Speaker 1>When we're talking about Lulu Lemon, which did category well,

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<v Speaker 1>how would you categorize this company? I mean, is it up. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>it's definitely upper end ath leisure. And so it did

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<v Speaker 1>report earnings yesterday that came in a lot better than expected.

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<v Speaker 1>So it does kind of make you wonder what does

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<v Speaker 1>that say about the trajectory of the economy right when

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<v Speaker 1>people potentially are still spending upwards of over one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>dollars also of this athletic wear. Let's take a closer look.

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<v Speaker 1>We have Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Poonham Goyle. She's in

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<v Speaker 1>Las Vegas, and Zachary Waring is with us. He's an

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<v Speaker 1>analyst at a cf ARE, a research joining from Williamsburg

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<v Speaker 1>Virginia Puno. Let me start with you unpacked the numbers

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<v Speaker 1>that we had yesterday after the bell from Lulu, how

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<v Speaker 1>would you characterize them? Overall? Very very strong, especially on topline.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, their sales came in ahead of their own

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<v Speaker 1>estimate and concentsus growing thirty percent growth, margins word down

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<v Speaker 1>but still pretty encouraging. And the inventory is high. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen percent the year over a year, but still you

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<v Speaker 1>know they're bringing that number to Really I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was key here was the guidance. The guidance came in

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<v Speaker 1>well ahead of expectation fifteen percent growth for the year

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<v Speaker 1>and eighteen percent for the first quarter, versus conscensus in

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<v Speaker 1>the low to mid teens. So I think you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the key takeaway here is that Lulemon did well in

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<v Speaker 1>before its quarter, but it's just not the four its quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>They're expected to continue to do well in the coming year,

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<v Speaker 1>where the math economic environment is a little bit uncertain, right,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't know and where consumers will pull back, but

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't seem like they'll be on athletes or anytime soon. Zach.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to bring you into this conversation because as

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<v Speaker 1>far as looking ahead and its outlook, what are you

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<v Speaker 1>seeing there and where are the promising signs and where

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<v Speaker 1>there's still some weakness as far as when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to this as leisure maker. Yeah, thanks for having me, Jess.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, we really like Lulu Women, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we think it's a great company, really strong brand. We

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<v Speaker 1>do have an issue with inventory still, it's still a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit elevated. So over the past three years, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>inventories up forty one percent annually, which is much higher

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<v Speaker 1>than the sales up twenty seven percent over the same period.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'd like to see that down below one point

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<v Speaker 1>three billion by the end of the year. If they

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<v Speaker 1>can get it down to one point three billion by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the year, we say that's pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>in line with where it should be. So, Zach, does

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<v Speaker 1>that necessarily mean cost cutting? No, so we yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it. They'll have to have some promotional activity to

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<v Speaker 1>get ready of it. I think part of it will

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<v Speaker 1>be they'll order left. They're doing that now that they

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<v Speaker 1>did that in the last quarter, they ordered you know,

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<v Speaker 1>less than they normally do before the holidays, and then

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<v Speaker 1>you know, ordering less for spring, you know, because they

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<v Speaker 1>have a large they say almost fifty percent of their

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<v Speaker 1>inventory is core inventory that they can sell year around,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know they've got a little bit of work

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<v Speaker 1>to do on inventory Outside of that, though, obviously the

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<v Speaker 1>brand and revenue growth is unmatched in apparel retail, so

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<v Speaker 1>we do like shares. It's just it's tough to get

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<v Speaker 1>really bullish with inventory levels aside and put I wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to bring you back in because looking at Lulu Limon

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<v Speaker 1>stock this year up thirteen percent, but when you draw

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<v Speaker 1>it out over the past, you're kind of hasn't gone

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<v Speaker 1>too far. But I mean, who do you consider to

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<v Speaker 1>be more of a competitor when it comes to Lulu Limon,

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<v Speaker 1>And I mean, how were some of its competitors holding

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<v Speaker 1>up compared to how it has sure, So you know

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<v Speaker 1>one competitor that come into mind is Nike, right. Nike

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<v Speaker 1>clearly is also making a big push in two I

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<v Speaker 1>think more stylish, right, because they both fell active where

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<v Speaker 1>But where lu women kind of wind is on the

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<v Speaker 1>styles and the comfort and the fits. So we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>Nike make a bigger push especially with women. Luleman does

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<v Speaker 1>have a men's business that is planning to double, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's on the woman's side where it really resonates really well,

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<v Speaker 1>and Nike has been pushing up its women's businesses all

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<v Speaker 1>so I think both equally focused on driving sales about leisure,

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<v Speaker 1>with Nike making a big push on woman and Lu

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<v Speaker 1>women making a big push on men. So zach to

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<v Speaker 1>what extent is their risk and the companies like Lulu

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<v Speaker 1>getting it wrong when they look at the outlook that

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<v Speaker 1>the macro could turn south so quickly and impact all

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<v Speaker 1>categories of retail that the market may not fully appreciate

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. Yeah. So you know, looking at some

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<v Speaker 1>of the other apparel retailers in their fourth quarter and

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<v Speaker 1>their guidance for twenty twenty three, that comes in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot lower, but that's to be expected. So Lulu has

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<v Speaker 1>been growing, you know, at twenty five plus percent now

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<v Speaker 1>the last three years, like I mentioned earlier, So that

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<v Speaker 1>would you say, that's a pretty mature market though for them,

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<v Speaker 1>I meant of that growth rate sustained over time, at

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<v Speaker 1>some point you hit a wall. Yeah, Well, so they're

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<v Speaker 1>they're expanding into China. So they had thirty percent revenue

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<v Speaker 1>growth in China this quarter, fifty percent on a three

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<v Speaker 1>year annual basis. So China growth is strong, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of where they're looking to get a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>their high growth internationally, but China specific. Management talked about

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<v Speaker 1>that on the call a lot, you know, and we

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<v Speaker 1>think that's possible. It's obviously got its risk in China

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<v Speaker 1>obviously with the government and how they handled that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>us businesses, but you know, we think it's it's doable

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<v Speaker 1>for them. You know, they guided for fifteen fifteen percent

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<v Speaker 1>revenue growth in twenty twenty three, which was in line

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<v Speaker 1>with what we expected. You know, we think maybe not

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<v Speaker 1>quite twenty five percent annually for the next few years.

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<v Speaker 1>The fifteen percent sounds pretty much in line. Hey, Puonam,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get your thoughts as far as when

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<v Speaker 1>we were just talking about this, Doug and I, as

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<v Speaker 1>far as the tell this could mean for the economy

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<v Speaker 1>when you see Lululemen's performance versus when you're thinking about say,

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<v Speaker 1>completely different retailers. Right when you're looking at so the

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<v Speaker 1>Walmarts of the world me sees targets. What does Lulemen's

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<v Speaker 1>performance say it's for us, what it can means for

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<v Speaker 1>the trajectory of the economy. I think it comes back

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<v Speaker 1>to the product. Product is king when you have the

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<v Speaker 1>right products you will sell it when you resonate with

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<v Speaker 1>your customer, or the customer will keep coming back to you.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are the brands that are winning today in retail,

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<v Speaker 1>and lu Lemon is clearly making inroads with its customers. Also,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's still a small company when you compare

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<v Speaker 1>it to someone like Nike. L Lemon is expected to

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<v Speaker 1>grow to twelve billion dollars by twenty twenty six and

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<v Speaker 1>top line Nike almost four times outside. Right, So when

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<v Speaker 1>you talk about runway, is there a runway for lule

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<v Speaker 1>Lemon to expand? Absolutely, and real runway is internationally as

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<v Speaker 1>you just heard about China and also digitally, I think

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know, those are two big opportunities for

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<v Speaker 1>lu Lemen to keep plowing through and being really outside strowth. Zach,

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<v Speaker 1>we were talking earlier about inventory levels being slightly bloated,

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<v Speaker 1>the need to kind of cut prices to move that

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<v Speaker 1>product out in terms of cost cuts on the manufacturing side,

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<v Speaker 1>Is this something that the company needs to address to you.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know to what extent they're exposed to manufacturing China.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe they're more diversified, maybe they're in Vietnam right now,

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<v Speaker 1>or even India. Is this something that you think has

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<v Speaker 1>to be top of mind for company management, getting a

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<v Speaker 1>more diversified supply chain in place. Yeah, so Lululum it's

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<v Speaker 1>got a pretty diversified you know, logistics system in place.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we think that you know, they're out of Canada.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously they've got manufacturing all over the place, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>high end, so they're not so they're not too worried

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<v Speaker 1>about that part of the business. You know, managements talked

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about not they don't have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of promotional activity, so they're they're probably going to just

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<v Speaker 1>order less as my guests the next few quarters until

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<v Speaker 1>that inventory comes down. But you know, management, the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>talked about it in this quarter that it you know,

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<v Speaker 1>inventory wasn't an issue, so he doesn't see it as

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<v Speaker 1>an issue, even though you know, we think it's probably

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<v Speaker 1>still a little bloated. You know, they do grow into

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<v Speaker 1>their inventory usually, but it's still even for Lululemon, Elevated

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<v Speaker 1>and pun. We only have about a minute left, but

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<v Speaker 1>I want to get your thoughts going back to what

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<v Speaker 1>I was saying, it's for the trajectory of the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, can we have a potential recession when consumers

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<v Speaker 1>are still spending on discretionary items like Lulu Limon No.

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<v Speaker 1>I think if we actually go into a meaning fullback

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<v Speaker 1>in consumer expending, the discretionary sector will too be impacted.

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<v Speaker 1>Prior recessions have showed us that there will be a

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<v Speaker 1>material pullback. The question is when does that full fullback

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<v Speaker 1>come and what's really going to drive it? Its currently

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<v Speaker 1>inflation and a falling savings rate, you know, a slight

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<v Speaker 1>pick up, an unemployment, debt levels rising. It has a

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<v Speaker 1>done it. So are we going to enter into a

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<v Speaker 1>deep recession? Then? In that case, I would expect discussionary

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<v Speaker 1>fund to pull back even across app nature. Hey, Zach,

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<v Speaker 1>very quickly, as stocks trading around three sixty two and change.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have a price target here? I did, so

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<v Speaker 1>my price targets for twenty five. That's a twelve month

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<v Speaker 1>price starry. Wow, So there's some upside, I'd say. So

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<v Speaker 1>we have it as a whole currently okay, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>strictly from an inventory standpoint, We're a little bit worried

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<v Speaker 1>about maybe the margin compression in the next few quarters.

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<v Speaker 1>Good talking to you, Zach. Thanks for joining us. Zach

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<v Speaker 1>Waring there as an analyst at cfr A Research from Williamsburg,

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<v Speaker 1>Virginia and Punham Goyle, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior Analyst for Retail.

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<v Speaker 1>Joining from Las Vegas. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week podcast. Catch us live week afternoons from three to

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<v Speaker 1>Itchen a ride, whether it's Lift or one of its competitors,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's take a closer look now at what is happening

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<v Speaker 1>with ride sharing company. Our guest now is David Rischer.

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<v Speaker 1>He is the CEO of Lift and he is new

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<v Speaker 1>to the job from what I understand. David, pleasure to

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<v Speaker 1>have you on the program. Thanks so much for joining us. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you, Doug. It's really great to be here. So

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge is that you're facing right now is a

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<v Speaker 1>ride sharing company when you're dealing with a rival like

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<v Speaker 1>Uber that has such a large footprint. First, give me

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<v Speaker 1>your view of the macro. How do you see things

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<v Speaker 1>right now? Look, the macro is we're number two. And

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<v Speaker 1>here's what's interesting is even being number two is still

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<v Speaker 1>a big deal, by which I mean, you know, hundreds

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<v Speaker 1>of millions of people, you know, hundreds of thousands of drivers,

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars earned over the last you know, fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a big category. This is a trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>plus category. But we're number two, and so we need

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<v Speaker 1>to fight pretty hard, and we need to remind customers

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to pick you up on time, that we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to charge you a price that's you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>line with what you would get with the other guys.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we're going to drop you off on time, and

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<v Speaker 1>really kind of focus on those basics to try to

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<v Speaker 1>turbo charge our business again. And I know you're officially

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<v Speaker 1>taking over the chief executive role on April seventeenth, and

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<v Speaker 1>you hinted yesterday's to some of our colleague leagues on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg TV that the sale potential sale for Lift you're saying,

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<v Speaker 1>was potentially off the table. So I want to know

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<v Speaker 1>what is the path moving forward? What is your outlook

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<v Speaker 1>here as far as how to turn things around. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean to be clear, it wasn't so much that

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<v Speaker 1>it's off the table. It's simply not our focus. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>people buyers come all the time, and they know kick

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<v Speaker 1>the tires and so forth. But from our perspective, the

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<v Speaker 1>best thing we can do right now to maximize value

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<v Speaker 1>for our shareholders is really build a great, great business.

0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.240
<v Speaker 1>And it really does start with those basics. And if

0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>you compare our strategy to Ubers for a second, you

0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.760
<v Speaker 1>know they've sort of gone this diversification route. You know,

0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.040
<v Speaker 1>it sort of made some sense within the pandemic when

0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:04.160
<v Speaker 1>rod share was so far down, but with rodshare coming

0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 1>back so strong, and it really is coming back strong.

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.800
<v Speaker 1>And I'm not making an earnings projector any crazy thing

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.839
<v Speaker 1>like that, but simply to say that, like people are

0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:16.160
<v Speaker 1>getting back out and and kind of together again. So

0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.439
<v Speaker 1>with that happening, you know, you want to ask yourself

0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.240
<v Speaker 1>a question, do you want to be focused on that

0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 1>opportunity or not? And we think being focused is great.

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 1>We don't want, you know, tun a sandwich deliverers, you know,

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.199
<v Speaker 1>also picking people up. We think that might be an

0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.200
<v Speaker 1>interesting business model or at least an arranged marriage that

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 1>worked for all for a while, but it's not going

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 1>to be how we go. So you've got a strong

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 1>background in technology. We're at Amazon for a while, you

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.880
<v Speaker 1>were also at Microsoft. Do you understand well the architecture

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:45.080
<v Speaker 1>of some of these platforms, these technology systems. Is there

0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:49.200
<v Speaker 1>a way that Lift innovates its way out of this

0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.200
<v Speaker 1>situation right now to try to capture more market share.

0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.400
<v Speaker 1>And let me just throw one thing out, is it

0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:59.679
<v Speaker 1>time to rethink dynamic pricing? Just as one point. I mean,

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 1>that's a super interesting question. I won't go into the

0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:05.079
<v Speaker 1>details on that, but for sure, there is an enormous

0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.920
<v Speaker 1>amount of innovation left. And I think this is it's

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>such an important point, and it gets forgotten because we

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 1>think that somehow we're on the tail end of this.

0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 1>We're at the beginning of the ride share journey, and

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:18.360
<v Speaker 1>there are so many ideas here that our teams are

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>coming up with on ways to really differentiate. I'll say,

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:23.880
<v Speaker 1>if you talk to drivers, I mean, aside from saying

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>they love the control over their earnings and love the

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:30.280
<v Speaker 1>control over their time, they'll also say they really like

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.559
<v Speaker 1>lifts platform as a driving platform. The mapping is easy.

0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 1>It tells you where to pick or passengers up, where

0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 1>to drop them off outside the street, and so on

0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and so on. These are kind of under the surface things,

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:43.679
<v Speaker 1>but there's a lot of innovation left in the market,

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:45.559
<v Speaker 1>for sure. So one of the things we've been talking

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot about and I'm sure it's fun of mine

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 1>for you, the role of artificial intelligence and everything that

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.600
<v Speaker 1>we're doing these days. Is there a way to give

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:58.319
<v Speaker 1>the consumer right now in a ride sharing space greater

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:01.640
<v Speaker 1>preductability in terms of hooking up with a ride so

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 1>that maybe wait times are reduced. Are you thinking about

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>ways to use the latest technology to service the customer,

0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.679
<v Speaker 1>to service your client in a way that can maybe

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:15.040
<v Speaker 1>enhance the experience, Yeah, but also less in the way

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.520
<v Speaker 1>time as one example. Absolutely absolutely, And I'm really glad

0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>you brought it up, because, Yeah, I mean, imagine a

0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:24.440
<v Speaker 1>world where you tell us a little bit about you know,

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 1>the trip you're going to take, maybe that involves going

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.360
<v Speaker 1>to the airport and when you're going to come back,

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 1>and we sort of arrange everything around that. Right We

0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 1>pick you up when we know you need to be

0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 1>picked up, and we don't, you know, threaten to leave

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 1>as soon as we're you know, arrived at the door,

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, we drop you off with the airport, and

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:41.760
<v Speaker 1>then of course we know on the other side you're

0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 1>going to need a ride too, and you're gonna need

0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:45.040
<v Speaker 1>to ride to the hotel, and then you're going to

0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>do that whole thing in reverse, you know, maybe in

0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 1>a couple of days. So and that's basic, but even there,

0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 1>that just shows you how rides your service is going

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 1>to really make themselves a lot easier and frankly more

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:56.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of compelling over time, and that'll be a big

0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 1>focus of ours. And David, you did bring up Uber earlier,

0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>and so I was curious as far as because with

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Uber and they have Uber Eats, it's typically more of

0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 1>a high margin business. You haven't when it comes to

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 1>live expanded into those types of segments. I'm curious if

0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 1>that's something you're thinking about, and if so, what those

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:18.200
<v Speaker 1>plans could potentially be. Yeah, I mean again, our focus

0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 1>right now really will be on the right stare basics,

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:22.360
<v Speaker 1>because we think there's so much to do there. But

0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting. You have to be, you know, cautious when

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 1>you think about, like every the grass always looks green

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 1>on the other side, and so you think, you know,

0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 1>maybe the food deliveries a higher margin business, but then

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.040
<v Speaker 1>you feel the onion back a little bit and you

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 1>start to see you know, Instagram, you know, photos of

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, seventy two dollars deliveries for you know, a

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 1>couple of slices and you think, gosh, someone's not really

0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.560
<v Speaker 1>working super well there, particularly when the drivers are not

0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 1>saying I love the experience of the food delivery. I

0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:55.040
<v Speaker 1>double park, I get a ticket, you know, maybe I

0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:56.600
<v Speaker 1>get a tip, but I don't really get very much

0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 1>in base pay so compared to Ritter Even so, I

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.720
<v Speaker 1>don't know. I think a lot of this is much

0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:04.280
<v Speaker 1>more to be determined than it looks like right now.

0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:05.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think when we look back in five years,

0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>we'll think, gosh, you know, what an interesting early stage

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 1>that those companies were in. And now look at how

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.080
<v Speaker 1>how much more, just how much better they've they've gotten

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 1>because they've really focused on us as passengers and drivers. David,

0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>we're talking to you from here in New York City

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>where the yellow cab drivers when Uber showed up into

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.360
<v Speaker 1>this marketplace, we're really struggling, and I'm wondering whether or

0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:28.960
<v Speaker 1>not a similar strategy may be adopted by your company.

0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 1>When you talk about trying to grab more market share,

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:35.840
<v Speaker 1>do you purposely undercut a competitor to try to capture

0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:39.400
<v Speaker 1>more market Is that part of a strategy too. I

0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>don't think that's a very good strategy to be honest,

0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 1>because that sounds like a race to the bottom, and

0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:46.280
<v Speaker 1>that means somebody gets squeezed and that ends up being

0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:48.280
<v Speaker 1>the drivers, and that's not where you end up with

0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 1>a healthy market. I think it's better to think a

0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 1>bit as you know, if you have two or three

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 1>players in a market, you kind of want them all

0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of fighting them out on kind of best behavior,

0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 1>you know. And I say that because you know, you

0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 1>really want as a consumer and as a driver, you

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 1>want some choice, and you don't want a knife fight

0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:10.960
<v Speaker 1>that ends up with one guy in the end having

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>a monopoly. I think that's very, very dangerous. You know,

0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:15.720
<v Speaker 1>we've sort of seen what that kind of looked like

0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.199
<v Speaker 1>back in the old days with taxis, where maybe that

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:20.800
<v Speaker 1>wasn't the service the people really loved. And I don't

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.760
<v Speaker 1>think anyone really wants to go back to sort of

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.479
<v Speaker 1>a one party system. David, Are we going to continue

0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:29.960
<v Speaker 1>to see higher prices on the lift app? I hope

0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:35.200
<v Speaker 1>not concern there as far as how to grapple with them.

0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:37.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, look there, you know, of course our costs,

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:39.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, go up, you know, just like everybody else's.

0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, we're very aware of the

0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>macro environment, and the macro environment is really trying to

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 1>push the other way. In other words, of consumers are saying, gosh,

0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.720
<v Speaker 1>we don't have a lot of extra money right now.

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, you were talking about this a little bit before,

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 1>and and it's a real question, you know, how flush

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.760
<v Speaker 1>your consumers feeling versus how you know, sort of more

0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>constrained are there economically. So we're trying to set ourselves

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>up that we can offer a great value and not

0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:05.480
<v Speaker 1>to the extent we can not pass those sorts of

0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:08.280
<v Speaker 1>cost increases along to customers. David, very quickly here, I

0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.040
<v Speaker 1>just need you to weigh in on autonomous driving in

0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>about thirty seconds. Too much hype here or or do

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:18.919
<v Speaker 1>you believe it's the future? Too much hype now? But

0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.520
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely the future. It's not happening tomorrow. It's a

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 1>very complicated problem. And even optimists from two or three

0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 1>years ago are now being you know, having their own

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 1>expectations reset about what's possible in the near term. But man,

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean I have ten years from now. Imagine you

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:38.439
<v Speaker 1>know it's a karaoke experience. Yeah, I mean, there's so

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>much money you can have where person in the front

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:42.359
<v Speaker 1>seat and not to be driving, can be showing you

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:45.719
<v Speaker 1>around town. Boy, I wonder if I'll live that long. David,

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:50.159
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Yeah so, David Rich, CEO, the

0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 1>new CEO for Lift, joining us here on Bloomberg Business Week.

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:02.680
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:06.119
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:09.399
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. We are back

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.359
<v Speaker 1>here on a Bloomberg BusinessWeek. You know, I think we

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.040
<v Speaker 1>talk a lot these days about taking care of the planet,

0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:21.960
<v Speaker 1>the environment. What does that look like when it comes

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>to building products. Well, Treks is a company, a leading

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:30.399
<v Speaker 1>producer of outdoor decking and railing that has a sustainable model,

0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:34.000
<v Speaker 1>and the company's CEO, Brian Fairbanks, joins us now ian

0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Thank you

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:40.040
<v Speaker 1>so much for being with us. Give me a history

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>of this company. How did it come into being? It's

0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:47.000
<v Speaker 1>really unique about Treks is our sustainability journey started over

0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:50.919
<v Speaker 1>thirty years ago when our founders looked for ways to

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:54.160
<v Speaker 1>use At that time, it was excess bread bags and

0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:58.680
<v Speaker 1>waste wood and understand how could that material be used

0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:02.360
<v Speaker 1>in a way that could generate value for the company,

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.160
<v Speaker 1>And they landed on a product that ended up being

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:09.399
<v Speaker 1>our first generation deckboard. And to this day we still

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>use many of those same principles. We mix the polyethylene,

0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 1>plastic and wood together with a number of other additives

0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:19.200
<v Speaker 1>to turn out a world class deckboard. And you've been

0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:22.360
<v Speaker 1>at the company for close to do decades now, right,

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.479
<v Speaker 1>started back in two thousand and four. I've seen a

0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:28.440
<v Speaker 1>lot over those years along the way, obviously the two

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.679
<v Speaker 1>thousand and eight recession that we've gone through, but a

0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:33.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of growth since that time and a lot of

0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.840
<v Speaker 1>changes in the organization, the vast majority of them for

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.240
<v Speaker 1>being the better. Talk to me a little bit about

0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the process of making this composite. You mentioned it involves polymers,

0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:47.879
<v Speaker 1>synthetic polymers, and wood. They're combined. I would imagine that

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>there is a bit of mulching when it comes to

0:20:49.800 --> 0:20:52.639
<v Speaker 1>the wood. Things are heated and compressed. Is that pretty

0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.440
<v Speaker 1>much how it works. Yeah, Simplistically, we're taking the wood,

0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:59.080
<v Speaker 1>the plastic, mixing it together, adding heat to it, adding

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:01.639
<v Speaker 1>some additives to make sure that we're going to have

0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:04.720
<v Speaker 1>the longevity. We have an up to a fifty year

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:08.560
<v Speaker 1>durability warranty on our products. Through that it goes through

0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:11.439
<v Speaker 1>an extrusion process, We cool it, we cut it, and

0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:14.399
<v Speaker 1>then it gets packaged. And how exactly because you were

0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:17.680
<v Speaker 1>talking to us about wood decks versus going into composite

0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:20.800
<v Speaker 1>decks tell us a difference about how that works. Yeah,

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:23.800
<v Speaker 1>so the great part about trecks composite decks is going

0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:27.240
<v Speaker 1>to be the reduced maintenance and of course the lifespan Today,

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:31.160
<v Speaker 1>pressure treated lumber is not particularly high quality. So your

0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 1>deck that you build you could last ten years, maybe

0:21:33.400 --> 0:21:36.960
<v Speaker 1>fifteen years, depending upon the environment. But also every year

0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:40.080
<v Speaker 1>in the spring, you're going to be spending time cleaning, standing,

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:44.240
<v Speaker 1>staining the deck, and nobody wants to spend their valuable

0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:47.160
<v Speaker 1>time on their outdoor living area doing those sort of things.

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.840
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence, our in house team of analysts and researchers,

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.400
<v Speaker 1>was pointing out that growth in composite decking has slowed

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:57.280
<v Speaker 1>lately relative to the growth that we saw last year.

0:21:57.760 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 1>When you look at the market right now, whether it's

0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:04.160
<v Speaker 1>adoption for the home kind of fixer upper that goes

0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:06.440
<v Speaker 1>to a store like a Lows or a home depot,

0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:10.760
<v Speaker 1>or it's the professional contractor that's looking for materials to

0:22:10.880 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 1>use in a lot of the renovation projects. Where is

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:15.120
<v Speaker 1>your focus right now? How do you want to grow?

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:19.600
<v Speaker 1>We continue to see good activity both from the DIY

0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:22.879
<v Speaker 1>channel as well as our pro channel and speaking with

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:26.679
<v Speaker 1>their contractors. Their backlogs moving into the season are all

0:22:26.720 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>at reasonable levels. They're not elevated like they were the

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:32.120
<v Speaker 1>past couple of years, or they could have been out

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:34.920
<v Speaker 1>twelve or sixteen weeks, but they're more normalized. We're they're

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 1>four to six weeks. That's healthy for the marketplace. And

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:40.879
<v Speaker 1>we're still seeing health especially at the high end of

0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 1>the market, and most of our customers do tend towards

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:47.199
<v Speaker 1>the higher end and thinking about decks, especially in the

0:22:47.200 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 1>pandemic right where people wanted to build more of them.

0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:51.879
<v Speaker 1>But then we saw the surge in lumber prices and

0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:53.600
<v Speaker 1>so that was a hectic for a lot of people

0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>and obviously very pricey, and then those prices came back

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:58.000
<v Speaker 1>down on the lumber side. But it was curious your

0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:00.679
<v Speaker 1>thoughts on with your business, how it's doing and what

0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:03.640
<v Speaker 1>the tell is about the economy right now. Yeah. One

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:05.840
<v Speaker 1>of the keys when we started really going after the

0:23:05.880 --> 0:23:09.080
<v Speaker 1>wood conversion opportunity was launching a product that was two

0:23:09.119 --> 0:23:11.720
<v Speaker 1>times the price of wood, also with a trade up

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to a product that has a little bit better

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:17.800
<v Speaker 1>aesthetics for about three times the price of wood. And

0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:20.600
<v Speaker 1>with that product, we saw the opportunity to be able

0:23:20.600 --> 0:23:23.560
<v Speaker 1>to bring more people into the marketplace. It's something that

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.560
<v Speaker 1>we've really been driving since twenty nineteen and we have

0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:29.120
<v Speaker 1>a long runway with that. When it comes to the esthetic,

0:23:29.280 --> 0:23:31.800
<v Speaker 1>is that something that you have to overcome? The resistance

0:23:31.920 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>to a product that may not look like a natural

0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:37.480
<v Speaker 1>wood or some type of wood product. Has that been

0:23:37.680 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 1>kind of a point of resistance. The vast majority of

0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:43.760
<v Speaker 1>the market loves the look of composites, and every time

0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:45.960
<v Speaker 1>we come out with a new product, there's more and

0:23:46.040 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 1>more realism with wood. Beginning of this year, we launched

0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:52.040
<v Speaker 1>our signature product. We launched it on a regional basis

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 1>and this product has all of the performance characteristics everybody

0:23:56.359 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 1>has come to expect with treks, but has that real

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 1>look of hardwood. If you were to take a piece

0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of epay, which is a Brazilian hardwood from endangered rainforests

0:24:05.520 --> 0:24:07.760
<v Speaker 1>and put a piece of Treks signature next to it,

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:10.240
<v Speaker 1>you'd have a hard time telling the difference. So there

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.440
<v Speaker 1>is a market that's clearly looking for that esthetic. Something

0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 1>I was curious about as far as the housing component

0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:18.560
<v Speaker 1>of this, is it more people are building new depths

0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:21.080
<v Speaker 1>for existing homes that they're already in or as far

0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 1>as comparing that to say new home builds, and that's

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:26.399
<v Speaker 1>something that they're looking for. The vast majority of our

0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 1>market is repair and remodel ninety to ninety five percent.

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:32.040
<v Speaker 1>So the new home build side of things obviously is

0:24:32.040 --> 0:24:35.560
<v Speaker 1>a key indicator from an overall economic perspective, but the

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:38.600
<v Speaker 1>primary driver for our business is that repair and remodel

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:41.119
<v Speaker 1>sector manufactured here in the US. Right, how are you

0:24:41.160 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 1>doing that? All of our product gifts manufactured in Virginia

0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:47.880
<v Speaker 1>and Nevada. We also have a third site that will

0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:50.360
<v Speaker 1>be coming up probably in the twenty five twenty six

0:24:50.480 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 1>time frame down in Little Rock, Arkansas. We've always been

0:24:54.640 --> 0:24:57.720
<v Speaker 1>a US based company. We can be very efficient in

0:24:57.760 --> 0:25:01.399
<v Speaker 1>our manufacturing production here, and we also have very unique

0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:04.600
<v Speaker 1>ways of using the recycled material. It's not something that

0:25:04.760 --> 0:25:08.440
<v Speaker 1>every organization can do. We have built a culture which

0:25:08.480 --> 0:25:12.280
<v Speaker 1>accepts a highly variable raw material stream and then converting

0:25:12.320 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>it to a high value end use in our deckboard

0:25:14.880 --> 0:25:19.320
<v Speaker 1>and railing any thoughts about going offshore, No, not really

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:23.119
<v Speaker 1>when we from a manufacturing perspective, everything's done here in

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:27.800
<v Speaker 1>the US now. Longer term, there's a great opportunity international marketplaces.

0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Today we sell in over forty countries, but the vast

0:25:30.880 --> 0:25:34.280
<v Speaker 1>majority of those overseas sales are done into mainland in

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:37.639
<v Speaker 1>Europe as well as Australia. We look for countries that

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:41.040
<v Speaker 1>have a higher GDP and an interest in outdoor living,

0:25:41.240 --> 0:25:44.800
<v Speaker 1>and we're really just in the first inning of that opportunity. Eventually,

0:25:44.840 --> 0:25:46.600
<v Speaker 1>when I'm back here in a good number of years,

0:25:46.920 --> 0:25:50.200
<v Speaker 1>we'll be talking about international expansion. So when it comes

0:25:50.240 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 1>to sourcing raw materials, let's talk to synthetic polymers, whether

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:57.040
<v Speaker 1>they're used plastic jugs, things that are being pulled out

0:25:57.040 --> 0:25:59.320
<v Speaker 1>of the ocean by the bucket load. I mean, is

0:25:59.359 --> 0:26:02.480
<v Speaker 1>there a a network that you're tapped into right now,

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:05.480
<v Speaker 1>whether it's with some of the trash hauling companies, whether

0:26:05.520 --> 0:26:08.800
<v Speaker 1>it's with local municipalities that have been involved in these

0:26:08.840 --> 0:26:11.840
<v Speaker 1>recycling programs that maybe up until this point, had been

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 1>exporting a lot of that to China. For us some

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:18.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of recapture. How are you tapped into the network

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:22.240
<v Speaker 1>for let's say the synthetic polymer our sourcing is home built,

0:26:22.320 --> 0:26:25.320
<v Speaker 1>so we are buying direct from the generators. So we'll

0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:28.880
<v Speaker 1>have a contract with a parent organization and buy material

0:26:28.920 --> 0:26:32.880
<v Speaker 1>out of their distribution centers or their manufacturing centers. For example,

0:26:33.320 --> 0:26:36.960
<v Speaker 1>material manufacturing materials that have protective films that are included

0:26:37.280 --> 0:26:39.520
<v Speaker 1>on it. They'll pull that film off, throw it into

0:26:39.520 --> 0:26:42.640
<v Speaker 1>a Baylor. Once they get forty thousand pounds, we'll go ahead,

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 1>we'll pick that up and we do that all across

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 1>the country. It's very good to talk to you. Thank

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 1>you so much for being with us. That's Brian Fairbanks,

0:26:50.040 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of Treks, joining us here on Bloomberg Business Week.

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:57.479
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:26:57.520 --> 0:27:01.480
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six. Listen on Bloomberg

0:27:01.520 --> 0:27:04.920
<v Speaker 1>dot com, the iHeart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App,

0:27:05.240 --> 0:27:12.440
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube. I'm brother Mac a

0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 1>journal Yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, honey,

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:22.640
<v Speaker 1>please I'll do the riding revels. I want to drive.

0:27:22.640 --> 0:27:32.680
<v Speaker 1>It's good question. This is the drive to the closet commune.

0:27:32.720 --> 0:27:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Thank well, up down on Bloomberg Radio. Yeah, we have

0:27:36.520 --> 0:27:39.320
<v Speaker 1>about eighteen minutes until the closing bell the Wednesday session.

0:27:39.400 --> 0:27:42.040
<v Speaker 1>Fair amount of appetite for risk, and we're gonna take

0:27:42.119 --> 0:27:44.479
<v Speaker 1>some of these numbers apart with our guest Bill Smead.

0:27:44.840 --> 0:27:48.160
<v Speaker 1>He is the chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management.

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 1>He joins from Scottsdale, Arizona's bell it's always a pleasure.

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:57.440
<v Speaker 1>Do you buy into this rally today or not? Well,

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:00.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, we own the oil and gas area and

0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>those stocks have had a pretty good week this week.

0:28:04.920 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>But no, I would say that I find it illogical

0:28:10.760 --> 0:28:14.959
<v Speaker 1>that the companies who are the vendors to the startups

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:18.360
<v Speaker 1>and the private equity people that are most damaged by

0:28:18.560 --> 0:28:23.280
<v Speaker 1>these bankrupt the bankruptcies in the bank world are tied

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:29.560
<v Speaker 1>very closely to what vendors feed off of the venture

0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:35.320
<v Speaker 1>capital and private equity world. Guessing you're not buying the

0:28:35.400 --> 0:28:39.080
<v Speaker 1>dip on these pullbacks that we're seeing in banks, whether

0:28:39.600 --> 0:28:44.880
<v Speaker 1>regional banks in particular, Well, no, the bank issue is

0:28:45.280 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 1>a separate issue. Created by the FED tightening, and we

0:28:48.800 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 1>happen to think at some point in time, the FED

0:28:51.600 --> 0:28:56.080
<v Speaker 1>will blink and they will not want to go through

0:28:56.160 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the amount of economic difficulty it would take to kill

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 1>the inflation that was created by the Treasury borrowing too

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:10.640
<v Speaker 1>much money and monetizing it. So that's that's a separate subject.

0:29:10.680 --> 0:29:13.840
<v Speaker 1>What really is more important to this bear market that

0:29:13.960 --> 0:29:17.840
<v Speaker 1>started in late twenty one is it's got to cure

0:29:17.880 --> 0:29:22.160
<v Speaker 1>the sins of the prior financial euphoria episode, which Charlie

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>Munger called the biggest he'd ever seen because the totality

0:29:25.480 --> 0:29:26.960
<v Speaker 1>of it. But based on what I'm hearing you say,

0:29:27.040 --> 0:29:29.840
<v Speaker 1>you don't expect that you expect the FED to capitulate

0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and have to cut Is that before the end of

0:29:31.640 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>the year. And then if we are looking at rate cuts,

0:29:35.040 --> 0:29:38.080
<v Speaker 1>is that a reason enough just to trade the market

0:29:38.080 --> 0:29:43.160
<v Speaker 1>and to go long US equities? Well, not by index basis,

0:29:43.560 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 1>we believe it's not. You know, there's not very much

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 1>upside in a bear market rally from here, because you

0:29:50.800 --> 0:29:53.880
<v Speaker 1>had one heck of a great bear market rally. I mean,

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:57.440
<v Speaker 1>the things that went down the most have gone up

0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the most, but they're up to way below where they started.

0:30:02.120 --> 0:30:06.320
<v Speaker 1>So that's what bear market rallies do. They're trying to

0:30:06.360 --> 0:30:09.400
<v Speaker 1>suck people into believing that you can get the old

0:30:09.520 --> 0:30:12.240
<v Speaker 1>game going again. So what are they buying. They're buying

0:30:12.320 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 1>fang stocks, They're buying you know, they're buying very aggressive

0:30:17.240 --> 0:30:23.480
<v Speaker 1>stocks and looking for imagining that that we're somewhere close

0:30:23.520 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 1>to the bottom of a bear market with some of

0:30:26.080 --> 0:30:30.640
<v Speaker 1>the highest equity ownership of households in history, and just

0:30:31.000 --> 0:30:33.680
<v Speaker 1>trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Yeah, if

0:30:33.680 --> 0:30:35.200
<v Speaker 1>you're looking under the hood for the S and P

0:30:35.320 --> 0:30:38.240
<v Speaker 1>five hundred for this quarter, the infotech index up about

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:42.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen percent over the past three months. Also communication services

0:30:42.560 --> 0:30:45.040
<v Speaker 1>up about seventeen percent, and then of course right after that,

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:49.240
<v Speaker 1>consumer discretionary up about twelve percent in that span. So, Doug,

0:30:49.280 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 1>I know you were highlighting as far as when it

0:30:51.160 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 1>comes to specific energy stocks, But what are your top

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:57.080
<v Speaker 1>picks right now on the energy side? Bill? What do

0:30:57.080 --> 0:31:02.880
<v Speaker 1>you like energy? Yeah, of course, we're a very large

0:31:02.920 --> 0:31:05.920
<v Speaker 1>owner of oxy and we love the fact that Warren

0:31:05.960 --> 0:31:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Buffett is coming in at higher prices, way higher prices

0:31:10.200 --> 0:31:13.719
<v Speaker 1>than us. We think he's on the right track. We

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 1>like Conical quite a bit. We like Oventive and Apache

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.680
<v Speaker 1>as well. Those stocks are being penalized by having a

0:31:26.720 --> 0:31:29.880
<v Speaker 1>certain part of the revenue coming from natural gas. And

0:31:31.080 --> 0:31:35.440
<v Speaker 1>unless something is missing, there's only two dollars downside in

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:40.320
<v Speaker 1>natural gas because it trades two dollars, So there's two

0:31:40.400 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars of downside, and I think the high was ten dollars.

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:46.560
<v Speaker 1>So somewhere in here, it's going to get cold somewhere

0:31:46.920 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 1>and the supply of natural gas that has flooded the

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:54.080
<v Speaker 1>market will will fade. And it's one of the cleanest

0:31:54.080 --> 0:31:56.920
<v Speaker 1>forms of energy, so it actually it kind of fits

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 1>in with the you know, the environmental movement to use

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:03.040
<v Speaker 1>natural gas, and that's one of the things you make

0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:05.920
<v Speaker 1>electricity out of in California. So would you be attempted

0:32:05.960 --> 0:32:08.560
<v Speaker 1>to play a fixed income right now, particularly in the

0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:11.600
<v Speaker 1>corporate space you mentioned energy, I'm wondering whether or not

0:32:11.640 --> 0:32:16.280
<v Speaker 1>the credit markets provide you some opportunity for energy names.

0:32:17.200 --> 0:32:22.720
<v Speaker 1>We're stock pickers only and are not asset allocators other

0:32:22.800 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 1>than deciding which stocks we want to own. But I

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 1>will say this, if we do have a recession and

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:32.480
<v Speaker 1>long term rates continue to stay low, the spread between

0:32:32.480 --> 0:32:35.680
<v Speaker 1>the ten year Treasury and the thirty year mortgage rate

0:32:36.120 --> 0:32:39.200
<v Speaker 1>is completely out of whack right now, there's like nearly

0:32:39.720 --> 0:32:43.040
<v Speaker 1>three hundred basis points spread between the two. It would

0:32:43.080 --> 0:32:45.080
<v Speaker 1>be much more normal for that spread to be one

0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:47.640
<v Speaker 1>point seven percent, and if that were the case, you'd

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:50.760
<v Speaker 1>have about a five point three five percent mortgage right now.

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:55.480
<v Speaker 1>And we own Horton, LNAR and NVR, three of the

0:32:55.520 --> 0:32:59.120
<v Speaker 1>five largest home builders. There are ninety two million millennials

0:32:59.160 --> 0:33:01.400
<v Speaker 1>out there and most of them would like to buy

0:33:01.400 --> 0:33:04.080
<v Speaker 1>a house if they could get a mortgage below six percent.

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.800
<v Speaker 1>And we think we're headed there. Well, if the economy

0:33:06.880 --> 0:33:09.160
<v Speaker 1>is headed to a level where the feed is forced

0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 1>to cut, and I'm wondering whether or not people are

0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:14.400
<v Speaker 1>going to feel like buying a home. No, no, no,

0:33:14.800 --> 0:33:18.720
<v Speaker 1>you just made the classic mistake. You never feel like

0:33:18.920 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 1>buying a home. You buy a home because you it's

0:33:21.920 --> 0:33:26.520
<v Speaker 1>a necessity. When there's ninety two million millennials, and even

0:33:26.520 --> 0:33:29.440
<v Speaker 1>though they're different many ways than past generations, they are

0:33:29.480 --> 0:33:33.240
<v Speaker 1>getting married in droves last year and this year, which

0:33:33.280 --> 0:33:36.800
<v Speaker 1>means they want a house and so far, so that

0:33:37.000 --> 0:33:40.320
<v Speaker 1>is a that's kind of an urban myth that that

0:33:40.800 --> 0:33:43.160
<v Speaker 1>ninety two million people aren't going to provide a lot

0:33:43.200 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 1>of demand where it was seventy five million boomers and

0:33:46.360 --> 0:33:49.320
<v Speaker 1>sixty five million Gen xer. So even if things are

0:33:49.360 --> 0:33:52.240
<v Speaker 1>different than they used to be there we have a

0:33:52.360 --> 0:33:56.320
<v Speaker 1>huge lack of housing. That's the biggest economic need we

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:59.840
<v Speaker 1>have right now, is that an inexpensive carbon energy. One

0:33:59.880 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 1>of the things we've been talking about in terms of

0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:04.560
<v Speaker 1>the impact of this meltdown and some of the regional

0:34:04.600 --> 0:34:07.400
<v Speaker 1>banks's tighter lending standards, is that not going to carry

0:34:07.400 --> 0:34:09.600
<v Speaker 1>over onto the mortgage side as well. You're going to

0:34:09.640 --> 0:34:13.640
<v Speaker 1>worry about financing of some of these homes. No, Because

0:34:13.719 --> 0:34:17.720
<v Speaker 1>here's the great irony. We call this a rich session

0:34:19.000 --> 0:34:26.040
<v Speaker 1>ri C S s io N. People below the top

0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:29.520
<v Speaker 1>twenty percent of incomes don't own much in common stocks,

0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 1>so when that gets bashed, it doesn't change their life much.

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:38.800
<v Speaker 1>And wages at average and below average people are soaring.

0:34:39.440 --> 0:34:43.440
<v Speaker 1>You name any restaurant or any business establishment you interact

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:46.160
<v Speaker 1>with that doesn't have a sign up say hiring at

0:34:46.160 --> 0:34:48.319
<v Speaker 1>the best wages you've ever seen at the entry level

0:34:48.320 --> 0:34:50.920
<v Speaker 1>in your lifetime, and I'll put in with you all right,

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:53.759
<v Speaker 1>final thoughts. You know, I was taking a look at

0:34:53.800 --> 0:34:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the XHB, the ETF tracking homebuilders in the SMP five hundred.

0:34:57.960 --> 0:35:00.560
<v Speaker 1>It's up about ten percent this year's It's interesting when

0:35:00.560 --> 0:35:02.560
<v Speaker 1>he's talking about Lenar and some of these other names,

0:35:02.560 --> 0:35:05.279
<v Speaker 1>it seems like that trade is in. But Bill, I

0:35:05.280 --> 0:35:07.400
<v Speaker 1>would imagine you're going to remain long that trade for

0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:10.600
<v Speaker 1>a while longer, right, very quickly. Yeah, that's a that's

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:13.160
<v Speaker 1>a five to ten year thing we're working on. And

0:35:13.280 --> 0:35:16.279
<v Speaker 1>again there's plenty of corrections along the way in what

0:35:16.320 --> 0:35:18.800
<v Speaker 1>we do as well as the other parts of the market.

0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:22.040
<v Speaker 1>The difference is things we don't are not coming out

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:27.320
<v Speaker 1>of a ten yeal Okaymnia. Bill smeat from a smeet

0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Capital Here on Bloomberg Business Week. This is the Bloomberg

0:35:31.640 --> 0:35:35.960
<v Speaker 1>Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else

0:35:36.000 --> 0:35:39.520
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0:35:43.400 --> 0:35:46.040
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