WEBVTT - Enjoy the holidays, because next year isn't looking so hot.

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<v Speaker 1>Three to one. Hi, this is Neil Brennan. I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>UK Social editor at Bloomberg. It's Kate Creator. I'm food

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<v Speaker 1>editor here at Bloomberg in London. I'm Phil Aldrich, the

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<v Speaker 1>senior economics reporter for the UK at Bloomberg News. My

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<v Speaker 1>prediction for three is that one story that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people will be talking about is Manchester United. If

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<v Speaker 1>the Glazer family do a deal to sell Manchester United,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that will reshape the way we think about

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<v Speaker 1>big money deals in British football potentially. And in the

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<v Speaker 1>thing I'm most excited about is up cycled products. But

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to be a very big year to

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<v Speaker 1>see ingredients and products made from items like the pulp

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<v Speaker 1>and the holes that are left over from oaknok production.

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<v Speaker 1>And what I'm looking for this year is Rashi Selects

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<v Speaker 1>Growth Plan. Business groups say the government has not got one.

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<v Speaker 1>At the last growth plan, former Chancellor Quasi Quattings nearly

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<v Speaker 1>blew up the economy, which sets a high bar for

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<v Speaker 1>excitement levels and at least proves the plan that can

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<v Speaker 1>have an impact. My name is Conrad Quilty Harper and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm the UK Digital editor at Bloomberg UK and my

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<v Speaker 1>prediction is about another Elon musque hobby, specifically the SpaceX

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<v Speaker 1>Dear Moon mission. The plan is to send a group

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<v Speaker 1>of artists on a spaceship around the Moon next year,

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<v Speaker 1>which sounds so crazy it might actually happen. I'm Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>opinion columnist res Raphael, my name is Joe Eastern and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm UK stocks reporter at Bloomberg. This is my prediction

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<v Speaker 1>for three. I'm joint stay Pig. I'm the author of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Money Distilled News Later. The valuable I'll be watching

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<v Speaker 1>the next year is unemployment. That's going to be key

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<v Speaker 1>to the severity of annualization and also to what harps

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<v Speaker 1>we host places. Is it rolling strikes, A lengthening NHS

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<v Speaker 1>wait list now seven point two million people and following

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<v Speaker 1>house prices will make it very difficult for Rishi soon

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<v Speaker 1>acts conservatives to restore voter faith in the party. I

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<v Speaker 1>reckon UK house builder stocks will rebound in the new

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<v Speaker 1>year after dropping about fifty in two Those share prices

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<v Speaker 1>is suggesting that there will be a sharp decline in

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<v Speaker 1>UK property prices and builders will have to write down

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<v Speaker 1>the value of the land that they own. That seems

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit extreme to me, they want a personal note.

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<v Speaker 1>I kind of hope it's true because I want to

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<v Speaker 1>buy a flat next year. I'm David Merritt's and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Franci Laqua and this is in the City Bomberg's podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>connecting you to the stories and the voices at the

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<v Speaker 1>heart of the City of London. Now this week, David, next,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to unpack the predictions and expectations for two

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<v Speaker 1>sectors at Briggs. Love to talk about retail and housing,

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely so first onto retail shopping, and to help us

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<v Speaker 1>to do that, we have our UK retail reporter Katie

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<v Speaker 1>Linsel and opinion columnist Andrea Felsted, who writes a part

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<v Speaker 1>consumer Goods and the Retail Industry. Thank you both for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us. Thank you. As we go into are people

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<v Speaker 1>spending less on high ticket items? Are they spending more

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<v Speaker 1>on other things? Well, we're seeing spend on real luxury

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<v Speaker 1>brands hold up, because of course not everyone is impacted

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<v Speaker 1>by the cost living crisis. But if we look at

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<v Speaker 1>the more general spend across the population, we're really seeing

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<v Speaker 1>that people are prioritizing essential goods. They are looking at

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<v Speaker 1>their spent on food, They're looking at their spend on energy,

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<v Speaker 1>and so really they're looking at those sort of crucial items.

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<v Speaker 1>We're seeing less spend on fashion. I think it's about

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<v Speaker 1>three quarters of Brits and a recent survey I read

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<v Speaker 1>of pulling back on buying sort of fashion and shoes

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<v Speaker 1>and items like that. Um, so yes, it really is

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<v Speaker 1>focusing on sort of crucial items that you have to

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<v Speaker 1>have at home. I was in I was in the

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<v Speaker 1>Westerndord Saturday for for a wedding and I've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>so many people swarming the streets upper down Regent Street.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that I think? Is it too early to say

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<v Speaker 1>obviously it's Saturday for Christmas? Looking like a boom? Tag did?

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<v Speaker 1>This did not look like a capital city of a

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<v Speaker 1>country in recession, which is supposedly where we are right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Right it was booming. I mean I also stopped into

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of sort of lunch break shopping at a

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<v Speaker 1>brand that I weren't named necessarily, but they were really buzzing.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think in certain brands people are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to get their shopping done for Christmas. And also, of

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<v Speaker 1>course we've had the rail strikes recently, so when there

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<v Speaker 1>is some let up from that and some let up

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<v Speaker 1>from the snow that stop people from getting out their

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<v Speaker 1>homes potentially, then then they are using those windows to shop.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course they're still also shopping online. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>really the truth will be told in January when we

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<v Speaker 1>see retailers come back and give us their figures for

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<v Speaker 1>how their Christmas training periods went. And also behind all

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<v Speaker 1>of those or those images of people flocking to shops

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<v Speaker 1>is inventory levels. And compared to this time last year,

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<v Speaker 1>retailers are holding more inventory. They had to order very

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<v Speaker 1>earlier in the year. They had to think about supply

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<v Speaker 1>chain issues, which you know, ironically supply chains have got

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<v Speaker 1>easier over the course of the year. They're holding more stock.

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<v Speaker 1>They really need to shift it. So we've seen more

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<v Speaker 1>and more discounts and bigger discounts. So I think, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got the truth ahead of us in January. And

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<v Speaker 1>so there was also this pretty amazing actually Morgan Stanley

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<v Speaker 1>report saying that young adults who live with their parents

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<v Speaker 1>are fueling the luxury boom. So is it the case

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, people are getting married less at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment because everything is so expensive, they're stopping to rend

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<v Speaker 1>moving out with their parents and buying a Gucci bag.

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<v Speaker 1>I would take that with a pinch of salt. It

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<v Speaker 1>probably has got some impact on spending. But the truth

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<v Speaker 1>is luxury has had a phenomenal run, particularly in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>The US really has been the engine of luxury growth.

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<v Speaker 1>And yes, some of that has been coming from young people.

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<v Speaker 1>Young people have discovered luxury, but I'm not sure if

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<v Speaker 1>it's down to them living with their parents. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it was due last year to crypto gains, to stock

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<v Speaker 1>market gains, and we have seen some of that reverse

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<v Speaker 1>um and there are signs that they you younger, more um,

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<v Speaker 1>the younger consumer, who is more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions,

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<v Speaker 1>has begun to pull back from luxury. I mean we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen that year Andrew Ham, you know, LVMH become the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest company by market value in Europe. It's it's powered

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<v Speaker 1>parents overtaking London in fact, is the kind of biggest

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<v Speaker 1>market capitalization. From what you're saying, do we think we've

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<v Speaker 1>peaked then in luxury off this phenomenal year, all this growth,

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<v Speaker 1>Doree look a bit tougher than for the luxury end

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<v Speaker 1>of the morning, It definitely does. As I said, the

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<v Speaker 1>US really has been the engine of growth. For luxury um,

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<v Speaker 1>crypto falls, stock market gyrations, that's all starting to take

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<v Speaker 1>its tall on spending. Okay, the super richer still spending,

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<v Speaker 1>but that younger, more sensitive consumer. They've got inflation and

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<v Speaker 1>they've got higher housing cost that is all starting to

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<v Speaker 1>take its hole and luxury spending on. Where we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>that most is in the secondhand watch market, so that

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<v Speaker 1>had a really remarkable boom um this time last year,

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<v Speaker 1>and over the last six months that's really calmed down.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's an indication that some of that froth that

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<v Speaker 1>was driven largely by crypto is starting to come out

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<v Speaker 1>of the market. But Katy, if you're in the market

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<v Speaker 1>for a luxury handbag, and I'm not saying anyone here is,

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<v Speaker 1>but if you were to be in the luxury market,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean everything is four higher than it was even

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<v Speaker 1>two years ago. So some people say, look, you buy

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<v Speaker 1>some of these handbags and they're an investment piece, but

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<v Speaker 1>how the hell can anyone afford it? Yeah, absolutely that

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<v Speaker 1>for many people that's just not accessible. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>by contrast with seeing anecdotes of families saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this Christmas, we're actually going to hold back from buying

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<v Speaker 1>gifts for each other. We're going to focus on the

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<v Speaker 1>food that we put on our Christmas table or people

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<v Speaker 1>buying their loved ones essential goods. So yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 1>there is a definite split between the consumer here. So

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the other end of the market then moving

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<v Speaker 1>away from luxury, the people who are really feeling the

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<v Speaker 1>pinch in this economy. Are they trading down? Are they

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<v Speaker 1>doing I mean what what behavior are we seeing in

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the supermarkets and the big the big department stores. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen a lot of trading down this year already.

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<v Speaker 1>So the German discount has, Algae and Little have gained

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of market share. UM Algae has knocked Morrison's

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<v Speaker 1>off the spot of the fourth biggest UK grocer. UM

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<v Speaker 1>and within supermarkets, but also seeing shoppers trade into own

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<v Speaker 1>label goods, so they're really looking to save money in

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<v Speaker 1>sort of every way possible. Um. There were anecdotes earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this year or so. I think it was a tesco

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<v Speaker 1>of shoppers asking for the checkout staff to sort of

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<v Speaker 1>stop at forty pounds or you know, stop at a

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<v Speaker 1>certain level, we just can't spend any further. UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>we've also seen supermarkets bring out sort of different sort

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<v Speaker 1>of savings programs or different sort of credit options to

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<v Speaker 1>help people try and spend more. So is there a

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<v Speaker 1>department stories there? It come key that you look at

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<v Speaker 1>as the kind of Bellweather on how people are spending

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<v Speaker 1>in the UK, so that the oldies is the John

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<v Speaker 1>Lewis and what are what are people actually buying also

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<v Speaker 1>like things to make up for the huge rising energy cost.

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<v Speaker 1>I think Next has been seen as the high street

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<v Speaker 1>bell Weather for quite some time. They're there ran very

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<v Speaker 1>conservatively and but but even Next had to profit one

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<v Speaker 1>I think on two occasions this year. Um, it's very

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<v Speaker 1>hard for them to call that's what they keep saying.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Next cells range of products including homewears

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<v Speaker 1>and furniture, and that is a really tricky market at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment because people bought all those goods during the lockdowns,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't they They don't need to be buying those sort

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<v Speaker 1>of items now during cost of living crisis. Um So yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think Next is a key one to look at. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But people people are really pulling back from those more

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<v Speaker 1>sort of frivolous purchases, the fashion, the furniture, and there's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be an impact for some of these companies

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<v Speaker 1>that could be funny dramatic. I mean, when you think

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<v Speaker 1>about recessions passed, you think of boarded up shops right

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<v Speaker 1>and high streets really taking the hit. And obviously my

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<v Speaker 1>sojourn into the West End that isn't a reflection of

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<v Speaker 1>the country as a whole. But as I said, it

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<v Speaker 1>was booming there. I mean, andreware, we're going to see

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<v Speaker 1>boarded our shops. Are we seeing retailers possibly going to

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<v Speaker 1>the wall next year if the froth is coming off

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<v Speaker 1>the market more, that is possible. I actually don't think

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<v Speaker 1>Christmas will be that bad. I think not much really

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<v Speaker 1>has hit yet. Yes, we've had some energy increases, food increases,

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<v Speaker 1>but we've had the government help on energy, and consumers

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<v Speaker 1>are very good at adapting. As Katie said, they are

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<v Speaker 1>changing their behavior. So you see a headline very high

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<v Speaker 1>level of inflation for the consumer, but they die all

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<v Speaker 1>that out themselves by shopping in little, by trading down.

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<v Speaker 1>So and the mortgage time one that that is being

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<v Speaker 1>predicted that hasn't really hit yet. As we go through

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<v Speaker 1>next year and more and more people will come off

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<v Speaker 1>their fixed rates, So I think Christmas will be okay.

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<v Speaker 1>But then when we get into January, singers are a

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<v Speaker 1>lot tougher. The credit card bill starts to land, the

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<v Speaker 1>big energy bills come in, particularly after this cold snap,

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<v Speaker 1>the more people roll off their fitxed rate mortgage. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think it will be the first quarter of next

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<v Speaker 1>year and into two thousand twenty three where we do

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<v Speaker 1>see that Paine. When that happens, then I think we

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<v Speaker 1>could see it's very likely that we see more of

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<v Speaker 1>that pain and more of those casualties. But andrew to

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<v Speaker 1>David's very good question about whether companies or you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sharps will go bust. The high street has changed so

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<v Speaker 1>much since the last financial crisis. It's much bigger change.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess that I've taken over the high street. So

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<v Speaker 1>does that change the dynamics that it's not the independent

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<v Speaker 1>shops that can go bust, Because at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, some of these bigger sharps, even if they

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<v Speaker 1>don't do so well in certain parts of the country,

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<v Speaker 1>have deeper pockets. That's right. And when you look look

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<v Speaker 1>at the casualties that we've had ad over the last

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<v Speaker 1>safe three to five years, most of the big obvious

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<v Speaker 1>names have gone, the ones that we all had on

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<v Speaker 1>our watch. This Debonam's Arcadia. They've all gone already, so

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<v Speaker 1>if there are casualties, they will be another it will

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:21.960
<v Speaker 1>be another layer down off stores that that fail. We

0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.320
<v Speaker 1>have also just jumping in there, we have seen sort

0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 1>of some key names going to insolve the s in

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:28.920
<v Speaker 1>just in recent weeks, and I think Andrew is really

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.560
<v Speaker 1>right the next quarter will be a really interesting one.

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:33.719
<v Speaker 1>So you know, if some of these recently that we've

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.960
<v Speaker 1>seen struggle Made dot Com, as I was saying, furniture

0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:40.520
<v Speaker 1>a read difficult category and online only, you know, are

0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 1>they going to really keep shoppers loyalty in this kind

0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:44.960
<v Speaker 1>of environment. So yeah, we saw Made dot Com grey

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 1>to insolvency jewels as well the high street fashion brand.

0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.360
<v Speaker 1>Both of those are bought out of insolvency by Next

0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:54.959
<v Speaker 1>and Mike Ashley's Empire Phrases group has also been doing

0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of buying upper struggling brands on the high Street.

0:12:57.520 --> 0:12:59.520
<v Speaker 1>So for a lot of retailers, this is actually going

0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:01.360
<v Speaker 1>to prove a bit of an opportunity, or at least

0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:04.360
<v Speaker 1>for those biggest, really really strong retailers. So I think

0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 1>want to see called at of M and AM interesting

0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.360
<v Speaker 1>and you know it's I guess the first Christmas we've

0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.319
<v Speaker 1>had for a while, sort of in the post COVID period,

0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:15.160
<v Speaker 1>at least in this country. I mean there's a lot

0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.959
<v Speaker 1>of it around obviously, but I think in terms of restrictions,

0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:20.480
<v Speaker 1>people are less nervous about it. We talked about how

0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:24.320
<v Speaker 1>COVID accelerated some changes to the economy and you know,

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 1>the shift to online, where we are now all those

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>people teaming the streets. Still people want to visit retail

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:32.680
<v Speaker 1>locations or are they're going to do a lot more

0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:36.400
<v Speaker 1>sitting on their sofas. David's been shocked. He experienced Oxford

0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Street on Saturday. It was horrible. I mean, yeah, Oxford

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.760
<v Speaker 1>Street is the sort of pumping heart of our retail environment,

0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.840
<v Speaker 1>isn't it. So it should be super busy at this

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 1>time year. Um. Look, a lot of people shifted to

0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:53.679
<v Speaker 1>buying online during the during the COVID pandemic. We know that. Um,

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>there's been a big surprise at how much that hasn't

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 1>stuck really even though still how many people work from

0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 1>home and we've got a lot of hybrid working. It's

0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.240
<v Speaker 1>been proven that people like to shop in person. It

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:11.680
<v Speaker 1>is only yes, yes, So there's been there's been a

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:13.480
<v Speaker 1>bit of a shock and your wayfare is another one

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.520
<v Speaker 1>that comes to mind, having to cut loads of jobs.

0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 1>So it has been I think a bit of a

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.480
<v Speaker 1>wake up call for some of those online only brands

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.880
<v Speaker 1>that actually people do enjoy going back to shop in person.

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>And then of course with Royal mail strikes, that also

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 1>means that people wanted to shop for Christmas have found

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 1>they can't depend on those deliveries arriving on time, and

0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>I think that's been really tough, especially for sort of small,

0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 1>more independent retailers who rely on Royal Mail. So there's

0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 1>a mix going on at the moment. But yeah, I

0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.200
<v Speaker 1>think online is not having the kind of happy ride

0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>that many expected. I was asked this morning, who in

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>the newsroom has an electric blanket? My answer was who

0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:55.120
<v Speaker 1>does not have an electric blanket? Time? Is that what

0:14:55.160 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 1>people are buying at the moment energy efficient because the flavor? Yes, yeah,

0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:04.080
<v Speaker 1>so definitely electric blankets sales are up. Usually air friers.

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean I was having a conversation this weekend about

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 1>air fryers. They're really taking off, and I think it

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 1>was Curries who were saying last week at their earnings

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>that they're at least trying to give the image that

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.000
<v Speaker 1>people are trading up within the electronic products that they offer,

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 1>so looking to buy more energy friendly um, washing machines,

0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:26.000
<v Speaker 1>tumble dryers, all these different products. Um. So there you go.

0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 1>There is a market for those goods at the moment.

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 1>For our for Christmas everyone, I'm not I'm not sure

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Mrs Merron would be fried turkey. Thanks. Um. So what Andrew,

0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.640
<v Speaker 1>what are your other predictions for where this market is

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 1>going to turn next year? I mean, you mentioned again

0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 1>about consumers getting smart about finding ways to save money. Um,

0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 1>the inflation seems to have peaked, right, so it's the

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 1>picture of that going to get better next year. It

0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.640
<v Speaker 1>could do, it could do. I think there's there's more more,

0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's there's more pain still still to come.

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I I would think unless inflation comes down

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>very sharply, it looks it looks very tough for people

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:09.640
<v Speaker 1>next year. The other thing to watch will be employment

0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 1>because it consumers tend to change their habits and most

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 1>when unfortunately they lose their jobs or they see their

0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:22.920
<v Speaker 1>friends being made redundant. And thankfully we haven't seen large

0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 1>job losses yet. So if if employment can stay pretty stable,

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.680
<v Speaker 1>and full then that should be good. But I think

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>there are so many pressures next year that I think

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 1>it is going to be a really, really difficult, difficult year.

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.440
<v Speaker 1>And while I'm optimistic for this Christmas already, I'm pessimistic

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>for next Christmas. Andrew, do you have any insight into

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 1>how many companies were able to raise prices in the

0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.440
<v Speaker 1>last six eight months that won't be able to do

0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.840
<v Speaker 1>so next year. Everybody is going to struggle to put

0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 1>through more price increases. I mean, we've seen some of

0:16:57.000 --> 0:17:00.800
<v Speaker 1>the prices come through, um, but next year we will

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 1>still see more of it, particularly and consumer goods. And

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 1>there tends to be a lag between modity costs going

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 1>up and prices going up, and so we will still

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 1>see more inflation coming through in consumer goods, and it's

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:18.119
<v Speaker 1>going to get harder to persuade people to pay those

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.480
<v Speaker 1>prices when they're incomes are under pressure. Do you agree

0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:24.800
<v Speaker 1>with that, Katie Bleak Bleak forecast the FRAI is going

0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:26.600
<v Speaker 1>to be rough next year. I think employment is the

0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.560
<v Speaker 1>key thing to look at, as Andrew says, um, and

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, to some extent, when we get out of

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.560
<v Speaker 1>the really cold weather, may things start to look a

0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:36.239
<v Speaker 1>little bit better people that have to worry so much

0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:38.680
<v Speaker 1>about energy bills. But yeah, there's there's a certain amount

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 1>of time that we can all put up with our

0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:43.720
<v Speaker 1>budgets being stretched to the extent that they are right.

0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Um So, yeah, you don't speak to many retailers who

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:48.480
<v Speaker 1>are upbeat at the moment. Let's bit that way. And

0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>also they're all finding it very hard to forecast, so

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.400
<v Speaker 1>they can't say at what stage next year it might

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:55.919
<v Speaker 1>start to get easier. Um So yes, I think for

0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:59.239
<v Speaker 1>our pessimism is the way forward. Katie and Andrew, thank

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining. Thank you thanks for listening

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.400
<v Speaker 1>to this week's in the City. We'll be back next week,

0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>but in the meantime, if you like our show, please

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 1>head on over to Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen

0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 1>to podcasts and a rate review. Unsubscribe. This episode was

0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:18.560
<v Speaker 1>hosted by Me David Merritt and Me Francie Laqua. It

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 1>was produced by Summersadi, editing and sound designed by Blake

0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Maples and special thanks to Andrea Felsted and Katie Lindsel.