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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Single best idea on

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Speaker 1: a Friday, after an incredible week, I can't say enough

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Speaker 1: to you worldwide and across the nation. We complained about

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Speaker 1: the traffic, but the excitement of un week here in

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Speaker 1: New York City is palpable. It's getting home. Girl had

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Speaker 1: it much worse than I did. I talked to Chart Banner,

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Speaker 1: of course, who does all our banners and charts. Chart

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Speaker 1: Banner took two and a half hours to get home.

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Speaker 1: I think it was last night. It was just brutal,

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Speaker 1: and so we're all struggling with this. But the fact

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Speaker 1: is it was an exciting week, and of course led

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Speaker 1: by the news slow the stunning shock out of China

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Speaker 1: that we saw. The best thing for us was the

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Speaker 1: hallmark of what we do with Bloomberg Surveillance and what

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Speaker 1: we try to bring to you in six minutes. And

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Speaker 1: single best idea, which is the conversation with guests. To

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Speaker 1: have Michael Robison with us on Wednesday and today Nasen

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Speaker 1: Tleb was a really special treat both of them. In

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Speaker 1: extended conversation. Nasing Teleb of the Black Swan on your humility.

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Speaker 2: The point is you don't need humility. Humility actually is

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Speaker 2: not necessary. I don't why people are arrogant. There's just

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Speaker 2: got to be paranoid about the right things, namely how

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Speaker 2: much an our error costs you when it happens that

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Speaker 2: ruined problem, and and and and basically Scott's book is

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Speaker 2: about ruined problems. Let's see. So you could be arrogant

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Speaker 2: about everything, all right, You can be wrong all the time,

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter. You gotta avoid you gotta avoid ruin the

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Speaker 2: big things. You've got to be right about the big

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Speaker 2: sources of risk and and and the rest take care

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Speaker 2: of itself.

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Speaker 1: Nasing t Leab there of course, and supporter Scott Patterson's

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Speaker 1: Kings of Chaos. It's a new book. Well, much more

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Speaker 1: on it. The book was some real for Global at

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Speaker 1: Wall Street. Another great book on diversification, as Peter Lynch

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Speaker 1: should call it, on diversification, on all the traps of

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Speaker 1: asset allocation is beyond diversification. Sebastian Page a t ro

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Speaker 1: Price Holding Court on that he joined us today. Sebastian

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Speaker 1: Page on Nasing Taleb.

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Speaker 3: I'm really excited that you have Taleb coming in. I

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Speaker 3: talk about his research in the book, his points of views.

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Speaker 3: This idea of the number of particles in the universe

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Speaker 3: is that TALEV doesn't like the normal distribution, the so

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Speaker 3: called standard statistical models. And if you look at probabilities

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Speaker 3: of say thirty percent loss on the stock market, or

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Speaker 3: what we just had with Japan, you know, twenty percent

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Speaker 3: in a couple of days. If you look at the

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Speaker 3: statistical standard probabilities of those events, it should basically almost

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Speaker 3: never happen, and it's like once in a gazillion years,

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Speaker 3: once in the number of particles in the universe number

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Speaker 3: of years. But in reality those events are more frequent

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Speaker 3: than we think. So maybe this stuff Dell's with TALEB

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Speaker 3: coming in. I think it's hugely important.

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Speaker 1: Sebastian page, They're getting me all wound up with tro

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Speaker 1: price practon. Do we need to do some math here?

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Speaker 1: I think we need to do some probability distribution. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Sebastian's talking about a Gaussian distribution. That is the Bell

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Speaker 1: curve like of your high school class. Okay, Short people

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Speaker 1: off here, tall people way over there, in the middle

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Speaker 1: of some kind of middle tendency. And the heart of

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Speaker 1: the Telebian theory with many other people on Wall Street

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Speaker 1: is it's a basically an Antonian fiction is a Gaussian

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Speaker 1: Gauss was a guy in the nineteenth century. It's a

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Speaker 1: Gaussian fiction. So what matters? And you heard Sebastian Page

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Speaker 1: there talk about the one in a gazillion chance, the

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Speaker 1: mathematics of this, and all of you watch The Little

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Speaker 1: Mermaids so you'll get this. The mathematics of this is

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Speaker 1: when they paint ten one thousand BMW's how many do

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Speaker 1: they get wrong? One? Two three? It's the mathematics of

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Speaker 1: rare events. And the gentleman from France that came up

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Speaker 1: with this was pois Soon. When I lecture on this,

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Speaker 1: I go, you know, you remember Little mermaid pass passel

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Speaker 1: ou la la ah. And the answer is the world

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Speaker 1: we live in an investment in trying to not lose

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Speaker 1: money is a Poissant world, not a Gaussian world. You're

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Speaker 1: still with me, Brockton or I just did you know?

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Speaker 1: We were just gone? Okay, let's move on. One of

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Speaker 1: the great traditions we have here a Bloomberg Savannah and

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Speaker 1: say came to me with this years ago. I said,

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Speaker 1: you gotta be kidding me. We're not doing this, And

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Speaker 1: boy was I wrong. What a joy to speak in

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Speaker 1: the autumn before Harvard Yale with a Harvard football coach.

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Speaker 1: We do this on ninety two nine FM in Boston.

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Speaker 1: I think it's Brown Harvard tomorrow twelve noon. Great. I

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Speaker 1: got a newly minted coach, Andrew Orrich. He's there and

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Speaker 1: he's like doing a serious conversation because this press people said,

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Speaker 1: you know you gotta ingur is doing? You know how

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Speaker 1: about this linebacker and what do you do against Brown?

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to ask Andrew Orich, he was with

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay years ago coaching. I just wanted to ask

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Speaker 1: Andrew Orrich of Harvard football. Can you explain the new

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Speaker 1: NFL kickoff?

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Speaker 4: I really can't because I haven't like dove into other

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Speaker 4: than when I saw it on in some games. To me,

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Speaker 4: the way I understand it is you can kick it

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Speaker 4: into the end zone for a touchback, but there's a

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Speaker 4: penalty as far as what yard line they start at.

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Speaker 4: But the NFL is trying to create more returns, I believe,

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Speaker 4: and you have to drop it in the zone and

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Speaker 4: if the ball gets kicked in a zone, then the

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Speaker 4: return happens. And essentially what they're trying to do is

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Speaker 4: shrink down the distance between the return team and the

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Speaker 4: kickoff team, so the high speed collisions that ultimately concussions

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Speaker 4: are eliminated.

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Speaker 1: I wait an explanation Andrew Orris with a quality see

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Speaker 1: there and explaining the NFL kickoff. We've had a fabulous

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Speaker 1: week here across all of our distribution on YouTube, Subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Podcast. That's the best way you can help Brockton.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know, he's just this is the way

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Speaker 1: we get it done across the nation on Android Auto,

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Speaker 1: on Apple car Play, with international distribution there as well,

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Speaker 1: and of course a serious XM on the Corridor ninety

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Speaker 1: nine one FM in Washington, our flagship uncongested Midtown next

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Speaker 1: week Bloomberg eleven three am and on ninety two nine

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Speaker 1: FM in Boston with Harvard Football this weekend on YouTube

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Speaker 1: podcast on Apple Podcasts, single best Idea