Speaker 1: Media, so by the time you hear this, the situation
Speaker 1: may have evolved in any number of directions. I'm speaking
Speaker 1: in the immediate wake of the United States and Israel's
Speaker 1: brutal invasion of Iran. Thus far, over one thousand have
Speaker 1: been killed, including over one hundred school children and the
Speaker 1: Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatola Ali Kameni. In response to
Speaker 1: this Americans really aggression, Iran has retaliated by targets in
Speaker 1: both American bases and civilian and energy infrastructure in the
Speaker 1: neighboring countries that have facilitated American presence in the region.
Speaker 1: With the strategically and economically critical straight off moods in jeopardy,
Speaker 1: with France, the UK, and Germany aka the usual suspects
Speaker 1: indicating potential involvement, and with the potential Russian and Chinese
Speaker 1: involvement also being floated in some circles, it seems to
Speaker 1: me that without any formal annow spun, the war on
Speaker 1: the world has escalated potentially to a point of no return. Hello,
Speaker 1: and welcome to it could happen here. I'm Andrew Sage
Speaker 1: andrewism on YouTube, and I'm joined again by.
Speaker 2: It's James Hi Andrew, how are you doing.
Speaker 1: As well as I can be?
Speaker 2: Yeah? That's about the best we can hopeful these days,
Speaker 2: isn't it.
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: And in a time like this, I want to take
Speaker 1: a look back at history, particularly how past US interventions
Speaker 1: have left devastation in their week. Today, I want to
Speaker 1: look at the fate of Libya, a country still dealing
Speaker 1: with his simmer intentions following the end of the post
Speaker 1: intervention civil war. So I suppose we should begin in
Speaker 1: mid February in twenty eleven, and the Arab of Spring
Speaker 1: was sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. Among the
Speaker 1: countries caught up in the fuva against the prevailing states
Speaker 1: was Libya, a North African state ruled for the previous
Speaker 1: forty two years by the Colonel Mumar Algernife's government. Masses
Speaker 1: had taken to the streets across the country, starting in Benghazi.
Speaker 1: The government had some successors in putting down the revolt,
Speaker 1: killing hundreds of rebels demonstrators alike, and some failures as
Speaker 1: the masses managed to hold position. The people had many motivations,
Speaker 1: spaning Islamist, democratic, to militant, to tribal to just disaffected
Speaker 1: against a government intent on its continued survival, revolutions, uprisings, protests, revolts,
Speaker 1: they tend to be messy affairs. I'm sure James, you're
Speaker 1: well away of that.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think it's really easy of like outside observers or
Speaker 3: when we're looking back at history to be like, oh,
Speaker 3: this revolution was an Islamist revolution, this was the Marxist
Speaker 3: learning this revolution, this one was an anarchist revolution. But
Speaker 3: every revolution that I have been at the have like
Speaker 3: witnessed happening. It's in everything revolution and it starts and
Speaker 3: it later becomes a something revolution. But especially in the
Speaker 3: Arab Spring, right like in that time, it was just
Speaker 3: like we've had enough of being under the boot of
Speaker 3: these regimes and it was extraordinarily heterodox and that was
Speaker 3: quite beautiful in the early.
Speaker 1: Days exactly exactly. The heterodox nature of revolution is really
Speaker 1: what I want to drill here, because I think it's
Speaker 1: very easy people to caricaturize and sleep up broad brush
Speaker 1: and its determine oh this is and it gets to
Speaker 1: be around people are saying, oh, it's only monarchists, it's
Speaker 1: monarchists and Zionists going out in the streets when they
Speaker 1: were protesting, when the situation on the ground is always
Speaker 1: more complex than that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe I'll just take a second to address the
Speaker 3: annoying campus tendency. I understand that every time the United
Speaker 3: States rained down death on some part of the world,
Speaker 3: it's terrible, right, it's sad, as you just said, Andrew.
Speaker 3: And we've seen a girls' school bombed not once but twice,
Speaker 3: it seems right, what they call a double attack. That
Speaker 3: doesn't mean that your response has to be to support
Speaker 3: the other people who are killing those same civilians in
Speaker 3: that same place. It is possible for two things to
Speaker 3: be bad. And like in Iran, yeah, there is a
Speaker 3: monarchist opposition.
Speaker 2: It sucks. I spoke just this morning to a Kurdish.
Speaker 3: Group which is opposing the regime in Iran, and they
Speaker 3: had nothing but bad things to say about the monarchists. Right,
Speaker 3: they said, this is the PAK write the Kurdistan Freedom
Speaker 3: Party I'm quoting here. They do not have a foothold
Speaker 3: in society to actually achieve anything. The lies and delusions
Speaker 3: of a group of people sitting in nightclubs cannot make
Speaker 3: any real impact. That You're free to use that one
Speaker 3: next time someone tells you all the opposition in Iran
Speaker 3: is monarchist.
Speaker 2: It's nonsense exactly.
Speaker 1: I mean, just it on its face as obviously nonsense.
Speaker 1: This notion that these people are hive minds. It's hilariousist
Speaker 1: notion that you see popping up again and again.
Speaker 2: Yeah, very orientalist.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Anytime people step outside and they have something that
Speaker 1: they're upset about, they just get labeled with this one
Speaker 1: broad sweeping ideological monarcha, whether they snubscribe to it or not. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And even within the ideological monarchers, there's always a lot
Speaker 1: of nuance and how people understand those ideologies. You know, No,
Speaker 1: to Islamists are necessarily alike. No, two monarchists evan are
Speaker 1: necessarily alike. And those are both ideologies that I absolutely abhor.
Speaker 3: You know right, Yeah, I don't understand how you can
Speaker 3: be a leftist and spend your life like as such
Speaker 3: and then also think that in other parts of the
Speaker 3: world people don't want the same things like I believe
Speaker 3: it is inherently human, yeah, to want dignity and respect
Speaker 3: and the same for others, and to want our communities
Speaker 3: to govern themsels elves. And I don't believe that it's
Speaker 3: any less human if you live in North Africa or
Speaker 3: the Middle East or South Africa, or an island in
Speaker 3: the Caribbean, or an island in a Pacific, like I believe,
Speaker 3: it comes from our human nature, and so it strikes
Speaker 3: me is therefore obvious that there cannot be a country
Speaker 3: where people's human nature is fundamentally distinct and they're all
Speaker 3: just like knee jerk monarchists.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't see the world the way I see it
Speaker 2: if I was able to believe that.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, these movements, they're always composed by the choices
Speaker 1: and actions of sometimes millions of people, each of their
Speaker 1: own motivations. And that's easy, particularly in retrospect, to pick
Speaker 1: particular leaders or organizations as representative of them all. That
Speaker 1: doesn't make it so.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: One of the things that defined the Arab Spring, as
Speaker 1: you mentioned it, was it's a leaderless nature. You had
Speaker 1: new liberals, you had monarchists, you had socialists, you had
Speaker 1: most of all, I would say, people without any ideological
Speaker 1: commitments at all. The majority of the human population has
Speaker 1: not ideologically committed one way or the other. Most people
Speaker 1: are just trying to live their lives and meet their
Speaker 1: basic needs, and they're submerged in society that lends them
Speaker 1: towards a particular inclination, but that's not set in stone.
Speaker 1: Most people in the Arab Spring likely sought just the
Speaker 1: end of whatever it was they were suffering under before.
Speaker 1: And of course, in these kind of incidents, geopolitical actors
Speaker 1: will choose to back particular factions, lend them freedoms and
Speaker 1: prominence according to their geopolitical interests, but don't give them
Speaker 1: undue credit. You know, during the Cool War, for example,
Speaker 1: the US would have backed rebellions they believe benefit them,
Speaker 1: and vice versa, the USSR backed rebellions they thought would
Speaker 1: benefit them. And even today, the US is claiming to
Speaker 1: care about freedom but has continued to work with the
Speaker 1: Saudis who infamously invaded Bahrain to crush the Arab Spring
Speaker 1: that occurred there. And at the time, France's love for
Speaker 1: democracy didn't exactly match their offer to aid Algeria and
Speaker 1: Tunisia in putting down their own Arab springs. Now, as
Speaker 1: I've been saying quite often, pointing to our hypocrisy, it's
Speaker 1: kind of a baby's first geopisical analysis, right, None of
Speaker 1: these governments have any consistent values beyond their own interests.
Speaker 1: But I think it's important to make this kind of
Speaker 1: heterodoxy in movements clear, to contextualize what happened next. There's
Speaker 1: another notion that US intervention is entering these countries during
Speaker 1: these conflicts that hold humanitaria and aims to liberate the
Speaker 1: women or to liberate the minorities in that region. The
Speaker 1: United States, like all the governments, is opportunistic right. It
Speaker 1: is taking advantage of often genuine struggles by people of
Speaker 1: its own situation or goals without a care for what
Speaker 1: happens to those people, either opened the intervening or covidly intervening.
Speaker 1: Most obvious recent example is with the goods in Syria.
Speaker 1: At the time they were convenient the United States interests,
Speaker 1: and so they weren't and they were abandoned. And this
Speaker 1: is especially the case when resources like oil come into
Speaker 1: the picture, and Libya is extremely oil rich. So tragically,
Speaker 1: the West saw this uprising in Libya as an opportunity.
Speaker 1: Following a timeline and Encyclopedia Britannica, on the nineteenth of
Speaker 1: March twenty eleven, Libya was attacked by the combined forces
Speaker 1: of the United States, the UK, and France. These countries
Speaker 1: now condemned Kadafi as an oppressor of the civilians they
Speaker 1: were swooping in to say, though for years before the
Speaker 1: UK and France were selling him weapons, They alongside their
Speaker 1: Katari and Saudi allies, took advantage of the protests to
Speaker 1: assert their military might. This move was authorized by the
Speaker 1: UN Resolution nineteen seventy three, and NATO would soon take
Speaker 1: command of the operation. While claiming to protect civilians under
Speaker 1: a responsibility to protect doctrine, they bombed them. An allegedly
Speaker 1: humanitarian intervention led to the deaths of tens of thousands
Speaker 1: of a national population of just over six million. He
Speaker 1: infrastructure was devastated by the Natal Woman campaign and by
Speaker 1: the struggles between the government and the now armed rebels
Speaker 1: of the National Transitional Council or NTC. A quick note
Speaker 1: by the way the NTC appointed themselves as the leaders
Speaker 1: of the movement, and despite the struggle being kickstarted by
Speaker 1: mostly working and middle class militants, often of an Islamic orientation,
Speaker 1: the NTC was composed mainly of regime defectors, businessmen and
Speaker 1: exiles who had a broadly pro Western, conservative and free
Speaker 1: market stance. Some of the elements in Gadaffi's government and
Speaker 1: military had defected to the rebels and equipped those pre
Speaker 1: unarmed protesters with firepower, and so up to now we
Speaker 1: only have estimates regarding the civilian death dool, infrastructural devastation,
Speaker 1: and arbitrary detentions, disappearances and kidnappings carried out by both
Speaker 1: Progadafi and Antigodafi forces, not to mention the Liberate targetsing
Speaker 1: of black Libyans and sub Saharan African migrants by rebel
Speaker 1: forces that took place during and after the twenty eleven war,
Speaker 1: with the claim that they were Goodafi's hired mercenaries. Many
Speaker 1: of those Africans attempts to escape were met with callous
Speaker 1: disregard by Europe.
Speaker 3: Yeah, callous disregards. I mean, there are no words strong
Speaker 3: enough to express a way I feel about the way
Speaker 3: the European Union has treated migrants in Liberated is absolutely
Speaker 3: disgusting and continues to be despicable. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Have you read Sally Hayden's book about this?
Speaker 1: No? I haven't.
Speaker 3: It's called My Fourth Time We Drowned. Very good book,
Speaker 3: difficult read, I would say, very much. It's some of
Speaker 3: the type of reporting that I try and do myself
Speaker 3: on migration, and that it talks about people, not numbers,
Speaker 3: and it centers migrants as individuals with stories. It's a
Speaker 3: great book that I probably not want to read, you know,
Speaker 3: right before.
Speaker 1: Bed I could imagine it sounds heavy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely heavy gooing and so.
Speaker 1: Following a steelmate between the pro and Grafi camps in
Speaker 1: late spring of twenty eleven, the rebels, assisted by NATO forces,
Speaker 1: took Tripoli and toppled Gadaffi's government, and the NTC was
Speaker 1: recognized internationally almost immediately as the legitimate government of Libya.
Speaker 1: As Matt will Gress notes in Jack ben quote on
Speaker 1: the day Tripoly fell, the New York Times headline the
Speaker 1: scramble for access to Libya's oil wealth begins was telling
Speaker 1: Libya's vast oil reserves, along prize by the West for
Speaker 1: being the largest in Africa and incredibly close to Europe,
Speaker 1: were now open to business for foreign investors. As is
Speaker 1: the case with all imperial interventions, the attempts to get
Speaker 1: profits fluent for multinational corporations comes long before any ideas
Speaker 1: of reconstructure such as esentral infrastructure projects or insurance services,
Speaker 1: and really up to now that infrastructure has not been
Speaker 1: established and even access to Libya's oil is not yet secured,
Speaker 1: even though they allegedly managed to loot some of that oil.
Speaker 1: In twenty twelve, Nagurdafi himself fled after the fall of Tripoli,
Speaker 1: but he was found NATO bombed his convoy and he
Speaker 1: was captured alive, then executed by NTC forces in October
Speaker 1: twenty eleven, after which the war was declared over and
Speaker 1: the NTC declared Libya and Islamic democracy in their constitutional declaration.
Speaker 1: The NTC estimated thirty thousand dead, and a UN report
Speaker 1: from twenty twelve estimated that more than nine hundred thousand
Speaker 1: people had to leave the country since February of twenty eleven.
Speaker 1: Many were not Libya nationals, but more than six hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty thousand Libyans also fled, and an estimated two
Speaker 1: hundred thousand people had been internally displaced, continuing without timeline.
Speaker 1: In twenty twelve, the NTC handed power over to the
Speaker 1: General National Congress or GNC, and despite a formal end
Speaker 1: to the war, Grafi loyalists, local militias, and tribes shaped
Speaker 1: against each other and the GenZ. The militias wouldn't disarm.
Speaker 1: The Graffi loyalists continue to fight and the GNC failed
Speaker 1: to put forward a new constitution, so in twenty fourteen
Speaker 1: they were ousted by the newly elected House of Representatives
Speaker 1: and in twenty fourteen a second civil war would begin
Speaker 1: in Libya, with the nation split mainly between the House
Speaker 1: Representatives or ASHUAR with its Libya National Army or LNA,
Speaker 1: based in Tobruk to the east, and their rival, made
Speaker 1: up of mostly Islamists from the former GenZ with their
Speaker 1: Libya Dawn Militia based in Tripoli to the west. They
Speaker 1: didn't win the election, they didn't consider it legitimate because
Speaker 1: of its low turnout, and they didn't appreciate the amount
Speaker 1: of former Goodaff supporters in the new government, so they
Speaker 1: rose up to fight, claiming to be the National Salvation
Speaker 1: Government or NSG. So you have the HR and you
Speaker 1: have the NSG. Beyond these two factions, yours had an
Speaker 1: al Qaeda affiliated militia and the Islamic State, both engaged
Speaker 1: in insurgent and struggle around the country, sometimes holding entire cities. Eventually,
Speaker 1: the two governments came together to sign the LBA, the
Speaker 1: Libyan Political Agreement that formed the Interim Presidential Council and
Speaker 1: Government of National Accord or GNA in late twenty fifteen
Speaker 1: without attempt at cohesion didn't really work out, as the
Speaker 1: U went back to GNA, now based in Tripoli, couldn't
Speaker 1: consolidate power. By the end of twenty sixteen, factions affiliated
Speaker 1: with the NSG still resisted the GNA, and the HR,
Speaker 1: still based Intobrook, refused to endorse the GNA's appointments, so
Speaker 1: they went from having two competing governments to kind of
Speaker 1: having three. So the main opposing forces when all the
Speaker 1: g and the HR. The JNA was backed by Tiki,
Speaker 1: Qatar and the EU, especially Italy and the UN, while
Speaker 1: the HR was backed by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Speaker 1: the United Emirates, and to some extent, France, who technically
Speaker 1: recognized the GNA but also provided support to the HR
Speaker 1: for their struggle against the Islamists. The US was also
Speaker 1: supposed to be back in the GNA, but Trump jumped
Speaker 1: out to praise the HR at one point, so the
Speaker 1: US's position was exposed as a lot more ambiguous in practice. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so the GNA and the HR would keep on struggling
Speaker 1: against each other for control over the central bank and
Speaker 1: oil companies and territory over the years. By the end
Speaker 1: of one particularly significant offensive in terms of nineteen, which
Speaker 1: saw the country's largest oil field brought under HR control,
Speaker 1: the situation was such that the HR's leverage came from
Speaker 1: their control over the oil field, and the GNA's leverage
Speaker 1: was that it was internationally recognized and could legally sell
Speaker 1: the oil. GNA leader Fayez Al Seraje and HR leader
Speaker 1: Shalifa Afta seemed to be developing in cooperative relations, and
Speaker 1: in March of twenty nineteen they were supposed to have
Speaker 1: a national unity conference, but then the HR tried to
Speaker 1: take Tripoli, whoopsie, so they kind of had to postpone
Speaker 1: that conference. The resultant fighting led to the HR take
Speaker 1: in Sirte, a major city between Libya's east and west halves.
Speaker 1: With Turkish support, the JNA successfully repelled the HR from
Speaker 1: the Metropoli and the situation was stabilized with a battle
Speaker 1: line just east of Sirte.
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty, yeah, not just Turkish support, Turkey deployed
Speaker 3: the Syrian National Army aka the TFSA, the Turkish Free
Speaker 3: Syrian Army. They are widely believed to be rebadged Islamist
Speaker 3: from previous iterations of various Islamist groups in Syria, that
Speaker 3: Turkey has formed into kind of its own proxy force.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sure if you go to that Wikipedia
Speaker 3: page there are like seventeen million different war crimes listed.
Speaker 2: Like they are there. They are well known for their
Speaker 2: affinity for war crimes. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I can imagine the fact that Turkey, Turkey's back and
Speaker 1: them tells me everything I needs to know, I.
Speaker 3: Think, yeah, right, yeah, and that they're considered like a
Speaker 3: deniable proxy, right, like they could be like Turkey can
Speaker 3: be like, oh, well that wasn't us. That was these
Speaker 3: Syrian guys who we happen to arm and equip and
Speaker 3: run air support for.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what is their situation now? Now that Turkey is
Speaker 1: kind of back in the new government in Syria.
Speaker 3: They have largely been folded into the stg's armed forces.
Speaker 3: So like Abu hamsa Is I think a general or
Speaker 3: brigadier I can't quite remember rank, but it's a guy
Speaker 3: who has been widely condemned is now a military officer
Speaker 3: within the stg's Ministry of Defense.
Speaker 1: Huh Okay, So a more accurate description than would be
Speaker 1: that Turkey sent their war criminal proxies to support the
Speaker 1: GNA in Repellent Nature or Premier Tripoli, and the situation
Speaker 1: stabilized with the battle line just east of thirty In
Speaker 1: twenty twenty, and after other attempts to reach an agreement
Speaker 1: field they agreed to share oil revenue, establish a perminencies fire,
Speaker 1: and get both Turkish forces and Russian mercenaries out of
Speaker 1: the country, so the Second Civil War was officially over
Speaker 1: in October twenty twenty. According to reporting by Al Jazeera.
Speaker 1: The UN initiated a new attempt at a unifying government
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, which was approved originally by both
Speaker 1: rival parliaments, leading to the establishment of the Interim Government
Speaker 1: of National Unity GNU in March twenty twenty one, thus
Speaker 1: replacing the previously UN backed GNA. So we went from
Speaker 1: GNA to GNU, but then the GNU would be opposed
Speaker 1: by the HR, which withdrew from the GNU in September
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and established the Government of National Stability
Speaker 1: GNS in March twenty two. So the GNA was replaced
Speaker 1: by the GNU and the GNU was now opposed by
Speaker 1: the GNS, and thus the country remains split into up
Speaker 1: to today between the UN back to GNU and the
Speaker 1: hr slash Libya National Army backed GNS. And in all
Speaker 1: of this chaos, people on the ground have been suffering.
Speaker 1: They've been suffering human rights of uses, disappearances. Up to recently,
Speaker 1: the GNU imposed a morality police, and they have been
Speaker 1: numerous reports about open slave markets in Libya where migrant
Speaker 1: Black Africans are auctioned to the highest bidder. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is a result of human trafficking and death bondage, so
Speaker 1: not exactly the same as chattel slavery, but the experience
Speaker 1: and racial undertones are all too familiar. The suffering in
Speaker 1: Libya has also spread beyond its borders. Following Gaddafi's fall,
Speaker 1: the weapons of his military stockpiles ended up in the
Speaker 1: hands of militants across the Sahel region of Africa and
Speaker 1: even in Syria. You'll remember in my episode on the
Speaker 1: situation in Nigeria, some of those weapons ended up in
Speaker 1: the hands of Bokohoram and other Islamic militant groups in
Speaker 1: the region, Pulani herdsman and so on. Tragically, because Libya
Speaker 1: just can't seem to catch a break at all, September
Speaker 1: twenty three also saw catastrophic floods devastating the country. The
Speaker 1: hurricane strong storm Daniel caused two dams to burst in
Speaker 1: the coastal city of Durna, which is within Jenness territory
Speaker 1: in eastern Libya. The flooding killed at least four thousand
Speaker 1: people or potentially even more, left one thousands missing and
Speaker 1: displaced more than forty thousand others. Venetians, still wrought by
Speaker 1: civil war and still unrecovered from the devastation of the
Speaker 1: Natal Obomban campaign, surely could have mustered a more adequate
Speaker 1: response to the tragedy if not for those conditions. In fact,
Speaker 1: it is theorized that the tragedy could have been avoided
Speaker 1: altogether because, according to reports by the Middle East Eye,
Speaker 1: a Turkish company was supposed to rehability to feel dams,
Speaker 1: but their works were reportedly interrupted by the twenty eleven
Speaker 1: uprising and subsequent civil war.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's always the cost of war that we don't count,
Speaker 3: right Like, if you look at the twenty twenty three
Speaker 3: earthquake that killed people in Syria and Turkey, right like,
Speaker 3: Undoubtedly that would have done a lot less damage if
Speaker 3: that hadn't been for the fact that war had been
Speaker 3: raging in those places for so long, so like everything
Speaker 3: else got put on hold, all the normal infrastructure repair
Speaker 3: and so just that you would expect had to stop
Speaker 3: because of their warrant.
Speaker 2: That made things like the earthquake worse.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the people who rose up against
Speaker 1: Gaddaffi and fought and died back in February or twenty
Speaker 1: eleven had sought this outcome. Unfortunately, in a world dictated
Speaker 1: by the whims of imperialist powers, this was the end
Speaker 1: of their actions. I don't want people to get it
Speaker 1: twisted though, because in the time since, as people have
Speaker 1: observed the devastation wrought by the civil wars, there has
Speaker 1: been an effort to almost whitewash Gaddafi and to limit
Speaker 1: our vision of possibilities to a binary of either perpetual
Speaker 1: Gaddaffi rule on one end or perpetual civil war on
Speaker 1: the other end. Those are not the only possibilities. So
Speaker 1: we've discussed the legacy of nature intervention, which deserves condemnation
Speaker 1: in this episode, and it should be an indication that
Speaker 1: who the Western invasions and war was not going to
Speaker 1: liberate anyone. Yeah, But aside from that accurate analysis of Libya,
Speaker 1: since the fall of Kadafie. I want to bring in
Speaker 1: some conversation on demand himself in the next episode. Until then,
Speaker 1: all powets to all the people. This has been, it
Speaker 1: could happen here, have been are siege peace. It could
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