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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing as spect we're saying

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Speaker 3: it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big banks, all banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabai if you.

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Speaker 4: Want to pay.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel. I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen. Today's

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Speaker 1: episode on the pod, Week eighteen, NFL Best Best. We've

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Speaker 1: got sixteen games this week, two on Saturday, full Sunday,

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Speaker 1: of course Sunday Night football Lions and Packers. We'll find

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Speaker 1: out by then what the meaning of that game is.

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Speaker 1: More on that. No Thursday, no Monday night games this week.

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Speaker 1: Before we get going, want to share that we are obviously,

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Speaker 1: like many, very delighted by the optimistic news regarding DeMar Hamlin,

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Speaker 1: his situation, the Bill's safety. We of course wish him

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Speaker 1: the very best of luck during his recovery. Will provide

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Speaker 1: any coverage with any information available as we record here

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Speaker 1: on a Thursday. We won't speculate beyond that, but we

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Speaker 1: do know that he is in the hospital. He is recovering,

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Speaker 1: and right now the reporting from the scene in Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: is things seem to be going well. So that's great.

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Speaker 1: I just wanted to get that out and we also understand,

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Speaker 1: I want to make make mention of this too. We

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Speaker 1: understand some of you might not be in a state

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Speaker 1: of mind to want to even think about betting on

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Speaker 1: the NFL or wrapping your head around it. So whenever

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Speaker 1: you do feel comfortable, if you're not comfortable in the

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Speaker 1: current spot you're in right now, we certainly understand that,

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Speaker 1: and we appreciate that you're tuning in and you're giving

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Speaker 1: us the opportunity to still do the show. So we're

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Speaker 1: going to do the show and give out the best

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Speaker 1: bets and go from there. So just wanted to kind

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Speaker 1: of address all that before we get going. Joining us

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Speaker 1: the usual crew, Brandon Anderson, Jill Gillant, Luke's aka Vegas

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Speaker 1: refund some info entering the slate. How about home teams

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Speaker 1: are one twenty three, one twenty three and four against

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Speaker 1: the spread, five hundred record underdogs are having their third

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Speaker 1: best year over the last twenty years. Underdogs against the

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Speaker 1: spread and double digit favorites nine to seventeen against the

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Speaker 1: number worst start for double digit favorites and worst start

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Speaker 1: worst UH to this point in the year. That record

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Speaker 1: of nine to seventeen Eagles Niners the two teams with

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Speaker 1: a two touchdown spread in their respective games. Something else

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Speaker 1: to point out. Week eighteen is a very unique slate

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Speaker 1: because of the meaning and the motivation and the must

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Speaker 1: win versus the team being eliminated during the final two

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Speaker 1: weeks of the regular season. The last two decades, Brandon

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Speaker 1: Anderson found this nugget. Teams with a winning percentage between

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Speaker 1: forty and sixty percent that are also five to twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent better than their opponent by win rate are

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Speaker 1: an abysmal forty eighty four and five against the spread,

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Speaker 1: failing to cover six four percent of the time by

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Speaker 1: two point seven points per game. Jags, Dolphins, Seahawks, Steelers, Bucks,

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Speaker 1: and Saints all fit that category. So before we get going,

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Speaker 1: we did this in previous episodes, just kind of a

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Speaker 1: sentence or two will go Brandon first, work our way

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Speaker 1: around the whole. Just when you look at this slate,

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Speaker 1: it's a little different than usual. Trying to pick your

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Speaker 1: spots here, how games correlate, et cetera. Et cetera. What's

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Speaker 1: your top angle brand into betting Week eighteen?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's staty is and you're hearing the motivation thing

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Speaker 4: across Action Network and I'm sure all around, But don't

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Speaker 4: forget books are baking that into the line already, So

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Speaker 4: you can't bake that in on top of it. It's

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Speaker 4: already in there. And in fact, that number you just

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Speaker 4: gave Brendan shows us that it's usually baked in a

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Speaker 4: little too strongly, and that we need to give some

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Speaker 4: of these underdogs a little more credit than the line

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Speaker 4: might imply. These teams are playing their super Bowl, they

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Speaker 4: can knock out and end someone else's season. You want

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Speaker 4: to end the year on a good note.

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Speaker 1: How about you, Joe? What do you think?

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Speaker 5: I think you got to follow the money and the incentives,

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Speaker 5: especially for play props right now, because we've seen this

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Speaker 5: year over year in Week eighteen, where a player is

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Speaker 5: maybe three catches away from a certain incentive or a

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Speaker 5: touchdown catch away from an incentive. Now what Brandon just mentioned,

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Speaker 5: Books have also gotten a little smarter on that too

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Speaker 5: and have started to bake those into the odds. But

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Speaker 5: there are still some opportunities that I think you could find.

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Speaker 5: And Evan Abrams with the Action Network is going to

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Speaker 5: have a full incentive report released on actionnetwork dot com

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Speaker 5: that you'll be able to check out to see what

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Speaker 5: kind of different incentives there are to take advantage of.

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Speaker 1: And Luke, You've got a couple angles to this as well.

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Speaker 3: It's from personal experience.

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Speaker 6: Early on in my betting days, I would get smoked

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Speaker 6: in this week every year, and I don't know if

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Speaker 6: it was just like recklessness or what, but I've learned

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Speaker 6: to be a lot more careful and a lot more

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Speaker 6: hesitant on pulling the trigger and.

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Speaker 3: This week.

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Speaker 6: And then my second one is kind of piggybacking off

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Speaker 6: of Jill someone in the opposite direction. But the incentive

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Speaker 6: player props that one thing. I had a couple friends.

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Speaker 3: Actually yesterday text me like tweet threads of.

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Speaker 6: Incentive based player props available, like in my first response

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Speaker 6: was like yo, like breaks and the one example and

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Speaker 6: there's not many that are like high, but like Khalif

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Speaker 6: Raymond was like the one example that stuck out. I

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Speaker 6: think he needs like forty five yards or forty yards

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Speaker 6: receiving to get a bonus where I don't think it's

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Speaker 6: out yet, but I'm gonna go out on a limb

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Speaker 6: and say his player prop will probably open up at

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Speaker 6: forty forty and a half thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 6: And if you look at all of his other player props,

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Speaker 6: it's been in like the thirty range, thirty thirty one.

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Speaker 3: Which is like a pure like inflated.

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Speaker 6: I don't want to say bait, but they're setting it

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Speaker 6: at the incentive knowing everyone wants to bet, the motivation,

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Speaker 6: and you're betting at ten yards higher than it normally is,

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Speaker 6: So just be careful with all those things.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's pretty much it.

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Speaker 1: And by Sunday night, the Lions might have other part

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Speaker 1: already's been getting Khaliff Raymond, the four Holy Cross Crusader,

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Speaker 1: Khaliff Raymond. Someone on this call here may or may

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Speaker 1: not have called some of his college games at one point.

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Speaker 1: So I'm happy for Kalif Raymond. I hope it works

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Speaker 1: out for him. But the Lions have bigger goals I

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Speaker 1: think collectively than a Kaliff Raymond bonus, and you know what,

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Speaker 1: they make the playoffs, they'll probably give it to him anyway,

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Speaker 1: which is how this all normally goes. Anyway, Let's get

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Speaker 1: into the picks. As a reminder, you can follow all

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Speaker 1: of our picks from this episode as well as the

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack. They delivered best bets as well. You

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Speaker 1: can find them over on the Action Network app at

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Speaker 1: Action Network NFL Picks. Brandon Anderson, get us started your

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Speaker 1: first pick for week eighteen.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's go to Saturday night. We finally get that

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Speaker 4: Titans Jaguars game. I feel like we've been circling that one,

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Speaker 4: waiting like a month for this game that we all

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Speaker 4: knew was eventually probably going to be for the division.

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Speaker 4: And I think it's important to remember that because we've

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Speaker 4: got a bit of a misperception I think.

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Speaker 3: On the Titan.

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Speaker 4: So my play here is Titans plus six six and

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Speaker 4: a half if you can get it, and the under forty.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna play them both together. I think it's correlated,

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Speaker 4: and I'll explain why. So plus two to seventy one

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Speaker 4: or best time, I'm gonna get on the same game

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Speaker 4: parly there. So, right now, the Titans have lost six

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Speaker 4: games in a row, right, so the focus I think is, well,

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Speaker 4: Ryan Tannehill is out and they've just fallen apart.

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Speaker 3: They're terrible.

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Speaker 4: The Titans are barely hanging on changing of the guard.

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Speaker 4: Here comes the Jaguars. It's in Jacksonville, biggest game, YadA, YadA.

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Speaker 4: This exactly fits that tran you mentioned Brendan of one

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Speaker 4: of those over and played lines, and especially for me,

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Speaker 4: this is an injury report play.

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Speaker 3: If you latch the.

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Speaker 4: Titans over the last month, their injury report would just

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Speaker 4: be like pages of names, like they were missing literally

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Speaker 4: more than half of their defensive starters for a bunch

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Speaker 4: of those games. Now you look, look they've rested last week,

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Speaker 4: so they've basically been prepping for this game, resting for

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Speaker 4: this game for three weeks. Here Jeffrey Simmons, the superstar

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Speaker 4: in the line, totally looking healthy in practicing, Denico Autry,

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Speaker 4: David Long. The last time those three guys, who I

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Speaker 4: would say maybe the three best defenders there, last time

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Speaker 4: they played together was week eleven. Up through that point,

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Speaker 4: the Titans were number one against their run. They were

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Speaker 4: top ten defense. Since then, they've lost all six games

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Speaker 4: and they are the number thirty defense. I think that

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Speaker 4: this line is treating the Titans like the number thirty

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Speaker 4: team when the reality is practice report looks pretty good.

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Speaker 4: No Tannehill, but Derek Henry's practicing, the run game has

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Speaker 4: been really good, and all those defenders are back. I

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Speaker 4: think healthy Titans defense or mostly healthy. I think it's

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Speaker 4: the best unit in this game. The Titans have a

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Speaker 4: big experience advantage here for a game that they've been

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Speaker 4: playing in playoff games all these years now. Not the Jaguars,

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Speaker 4: this is new Termor Lawrence, He's played in some big

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Speaker 4: games in college, but this is noo their level. I

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Speaker 4: just like the Titans here. Henry has died domd in

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Speaker 4: this matchup. And Mike Rabel, you've heard me give this

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Speaker 4: stat out before as a three point underdog, or Moore

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Speaker 4: twenty one nine in a one against the spread seventy percent.

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Speaker 4: I mentioned that Trenda. You mentioned Brandon of kind of

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Speaker 4: the baked in underdog here, and so that's why I

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Speaker 4: like the Titans. But if you do like them, then

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Speaker 4: I like the under Also, the whole angle is the

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Speaker 4: Titans defense is being misrepresented here. So Titans unders this

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Speaker 4: year are eleven and five, even with the defense falling

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Speaker 4: off lately, Doug Peterson home unders thirty three and a

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Speaker 4: fourteen lifetime Trevor Lawrence home unders twelve and four, And

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Speaker 4: then we know primetime unders have been great all year

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Speaker 4: to thirty four and nineteen. Lots of trends point under.

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Speaker 4: I think they're very correlated. Look, if you think the

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Speaker 4: Titans hang in this game, it's not because Josh Dobbs

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Speaker 4: comes out and hangs like this amazing mona liase of performance, right,

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Speaker 4: It's because the Titans defense kept them around. So I'll

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Speaker 4: play them both Titans under forty and plus six six

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Speaker 4: and a half plus two seventy one for the combo.

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Speaker 1: Titans extra rest too, nine to two against the spread,

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Speaker 1: nine plus days of rest. That Cowboys game they played

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Speaker 1: feels like forever ago. But yeah, practice reports sounds encouraging,

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Speaker 1: you thought there.

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Speaker 6: Luke, have you I've I was just looking at the

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Speaker 6: Derrick Henry rushing yards props and I'm like shocked that

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Speaker 6: it's at eighty eight, like it's normally in like the

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Speaker 6: high nineties. Like I don't even I honestly don't even

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Speaker 6: get that. But like, I think the one defensive player

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Speaker 6: being back that is like so important is Long. Like

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Speaker 6: everyone thinks about Simmons, but since like Long has been out,

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Speaker 6: that's been.

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Speaker 3: A difference maker to me. And he's back.

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Speaker 1: I got Jill you're a pick, your first pick relates.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not leaving any in the chamber. I'm going

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Speaker 5: right for the throat. I'm taking Titans money line at

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Speaker 5: plus two thirty five. I'd be like, this is the

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Speaker 5: game where you take the money line, not the spreads

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Speaker 5: and totals. Not to say that I don't support Brendan's

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Speaker 5: pick or Brandon's pick. Rather, I just think that the

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Speaker 5: this is the game where the Titans are the better team.

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Speaker 5: They have the best player on the field. I know

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Speaker 5: Dereck Henry, his line is a little bit lower. I

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Speaker 5: just wanted to touch on that, Luke that the last

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Speaker 5: three games that he's played in Jacksonville, he's got six

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Speaker 5: touchdowns and just under four.

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Speaker 2: Hundred rush yards.

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Speaker 5: He's going to see the ball at least twenty five

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Speaker 5: times in this how Yeah, Like well one of the

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Speaker 5: games that was like two hundred and twenty rush yards.

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Speaker 5: So again that was like two years ago before Lawrence

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Speaker 5: and that defense got a little bit of a bump up.

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Speaker 5: But at the same time, he's still Dereck Henry. He's

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Speaker 5: still going to get the ball from an opportunity standpoint.

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Speaker 5: But also the Titans pretty much threw that game against

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Speaker 5: the Cowboys to get ready for this game. That's why

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Speaker 5: Derek Henry didn't play. That's why most of the starters

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Speaker 5: weren't playing, although Robert Woods inexplicably was playing in the

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Speaker 5: middle of the third quarter and.

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Speaker 2: Caught a touchdown in that game. I still don't understand

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Speaker 2: that one.

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Speaker 5: But now I think that the Titans are the better team,

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Speaker 5: so I'm going to take them into spot. But if

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Speaker 5: you were maybe feeling a little hesitant to want to

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Speaker 5: take the money line, there are some trends that really

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Speaker 5: do support a spread pick in this point. You did

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Speaker 5: just bring up one about the extended rest with Rabele

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Speaker 5: having more prep with Josh Dobbs nine and two against

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Speaker 5: the spread when they are in that spot. Also, in

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Speaker 5: regular season Saturday games, road teams are sixty thirty eight

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Speaker 5: and five against the spread, so sixty one percent hit

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Speaker 5: rate over the last twenty years, and then in just

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Speaker 5: since twenty eighteen seventeen nine and three against the spread,

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Speaker 5: so fifty eight percent. The one thing as well that

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Speaker 5: I think is a little bit indictable is the Trevor

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Speaker 5: Lawrence angle here so as a favorite in his time

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Speaker 5: as a quarterback with the Jags, they're one in five

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Speaker 5: straight up and against the spread. Their only win that

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Speaker 5: was last week versus Houston. And also, if you want

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Speaker 5: to correlate a little bit farther from a spread standpoint

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Speaker 5: fave or an underdog of two and a half or

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Speaker 5: lower with the Jags, they're one and eight straight up

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Speaker 5: and against the spread in those games. So I love

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Speaker 5: the Titans money line in this spot. I would also

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Speaker 5: add from a touchdown angle standpoint because I will have

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Speaker 5: a touchdown back coming up here a little bit later

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Speaker 5: in the show. But Josh Dobbs, I know, we just

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Speaker 5: kind of said it's not going to probably have a

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Speaker 5: Mona Lisa performed, But there are some odds out there

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Speaker 5: right now for about plus one thousand for him to

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Speaker 5: rush for a touchdown on this defense, and that's amazing odds.

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Speaker 5: I would chop around and try to see if you

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Speaker 5: can get some good odds on a touchdown for him

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Speaker 5: to run, because that's usually how the quarterbacks score in

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Speaker 5: this offense. Derek Henry is just such a big decoy.

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Speaker 5: That's how Tannehill has scored most of his touchdowns in

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Speaker 5: his career with the Titans. I would also be looking

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Speaker 5: at Zay Jones as well, because you look at the

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Speaker 5: Titans defense and you see the number of how many

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Speaker 5: touchdowns they've allowed to wide receivers. It's around eighteen or nineteen,

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Speaker 5: their bottom three in the NFL. But most of those

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Speaker 5: touchdowns are actually happening on the outside, not necessarily in

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Speaker 5: the slots. A lot of people will gravitate to the

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Speaker 5: Christian Kirk angle, but they've only allowed two touchdowns from

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Speaker 5: the slot all season. Most of those touchdowns are coming

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Speaker 5: from an AJ Brown at Davonte Adams, So just consider

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Speaker 5: that angle. But I'm going to be taking Titans money line.

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Speaker 5: I'm also going to be taking Josh Dobbs for at

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Speaker 5: any time touchdown and Jay Jones as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and just to add to the money line on

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Speaker 4: your point, Jill, the Mike Rabelta I mentioned as a

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Speaker 4: three point underdogger longer. If you play the money line

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Speaker 4: in those games, you have a seventy nine percent ROI

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Speaker 4: on your picks. So that one hasn't been as strong

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Speaker 4: this year, but that's because a bunch of those losses

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Speaker 4: have been this stretch where they're playing like exhibition matches

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Speaker 4: down the stretch here, and that shouldn't be the case

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Speaker 4: here so if you listen way back the start of

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Speaker 4: the year, we're on Jaguar's worst of first Division. I've

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Speaker 4: got something like twenty five units coming if the Jaguars

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Speaker 4: pull us off. Look, I'm not taking credit for that.

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Speaker 4: We locked into this one. The Titans were running away

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Speaker 4: with that. But if you're there, if you've got that

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Speaker 4: Jaguars angle, I think this is a spot you want

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Speaker 4: to play some money line. I know I'll be locking

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Speaker 4: that into the app, just to hedge a little bit,

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Speaker 4: because I think the Titans are very live here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Titans have lost six in a row, but this,

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Speaker 1: of course is a showdown for the AFC South and

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Speaker 1: we'll see if the Titans get it right or if

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Speaker 1: you get Trevor Lawrence in the playoffs. Luke, what's your

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Speaker 1: first pick for Week eighteen?

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Speaker 6: The Titans lost six? Saying how many playoff teams are

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Speaker 6: just on losing streaks? Between the Titans, Dolphins, Jets, I

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Speaker 6: missing one Commanders.

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Speaker 1: But well, okay, all those teams you just named have

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Speaker 1: had multiple quarterbacks starting for them.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, kind of, and all four may not be

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Speaker 4: playoff teams as it turns out, So that a long

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Speaker 4: losing streak as it turns out, is not conducive to

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Speaker 4: making the playoffs this time of year.

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Speaker 3: All right, back to the picks.

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Speaker 6: I'm going to go with the Browns getting two and

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Speaker 6: a half at Pittsburgh on Sunday. This one is going

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Speaker 6: to be piggybacking off of the motivational angle that Brendan

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Speaker 6: brought up at the start of the show.

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Speaker 3: Where you have the Steelers of playoff hope.

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Speaker 6: Needing to win, going against a divisional opponent Brown's probably

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Speaker 6: their biggest rival. I'm going to Pittsburgh where the second

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Speaker 6: half of Sunday's game, DeShawn looked the best he's lucked

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Speaker 6: to date. I mean, he's looked pretty bad, but it

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Speaker 6: seemed like he turned a corner the second half of

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Speaker 6: that game on Sunday, and the Steelers are just coming

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Speaker 6: off of two I guess somewhat lucky late game drives

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Speaker 6: to keep their playoff hopes alive, where on Sunday they

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Speaker 6: were losing the entire game until what they had a

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Speaker 6: minute left and they drove down and scored a touchdown

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Speaker 6: to win the game. Where you have to think that

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Speaker 6: the motivation is getting baked somewhat into this for the

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Speaker 6: Steelers and it's just been gimmicky wins where the Browns

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Speaker 6: have been facing top ten defenses since DeShawn has come

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Speaker 6: out of his suspension, and the Steelers defense has the

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Speaker 6: shiny object of TJ. Watt that is actually ranked towards

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Speaker 6: the bottom of the league, or like the shiny object

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Speaker 6: angle usually I used for quarterbacks, And when TJ. Watt

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Speaker 6: came off of injury, it goes like, oh, this defense

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Speaker 6: is going to be upgraded. He's the most valuable defensive

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Speaker 6: player to a team in the entire league, which I

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Speaker 6: still agree with, but I think he is definitely still like,

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Speaker 6: not even close to one hundred percent. He's had glimpses

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Speaker 6: of the TJ Wat we expect, but this defense is

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Speaker 6: still ranked towards the bomb of the league and the

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Speaker 6: Browns having going against top ten defenses since DeShawn came back.

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Speaker 6: So I'll take the Browns two and a half to

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Speaker 6: spoil their rivals playoff hopes.

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Speaker 1: So, just to drive that point home again, a team

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Speaker 1: with a winning percentage between forty and sixty percent in

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Speaker 1: that case Pittsburgh at fifty percent five hundred record that

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Speaker 1: are also five to twenty five percent better than an

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Speaker 1: opponent than their opponent by win rate, that would be

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Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns at forty three eight. That's their current

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Speaker 1: win percentage that team against that team. So for Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in this case, this record the last two decades,

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Speaker 1: that opponent that's slightly better forty eighty four and five

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Speaker 1: against the spread, failing to cover sixty four percent of

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Speaker 1: the time.

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Speaker 3: So thank you for explaining that. Well, just the way

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Speaker 3: I was doing that, there's no no I.

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Speaker 1: Think it's just worth readdressing things like that.

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Speaker 3: No, definitely, I just wasn't capable. It's a unique situation,

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Speaker 3: as we kind of knew what it was. I just

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Speaker 3: that's how we have you MVP.

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Speaker 1: Hey man, vibes are high. Got to keep the vibe.

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Speaker 3: Week eighteen, playoffs coming, let's go.

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Speaker 1: You know, I figured it out. I know why your

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Speaker 1: vibes are high because you explained and you're off the top.

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Speaker 1: You know, back in my heyday, I wasn't very good

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Speaker 1: at this time of year and historically, and now you

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Speaker 1: feel like you have it all figured out to some degree.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the inevitable. I've just cut off at the head

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Speaker 6: of losing on Week eighteen. So but we're gonna win

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Speaker 6: this week.

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Speaker 1: So all right, you take a quick breather, get yourself

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Speaker 1: ready for your second pick coming up. Luke will go

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Speaker 1: back to Brandon now for his second pick.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna stay in that game and let me

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Speaker 4: add to Luke's pick.

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Speaker 5: There.

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Speaker 4: You guys know, I've been on Steelers for weeks, right,

388
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Speaker 4: we just been playing Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, and I saw

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Speaker 4: this and I thought this line was gonna jump. After

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Speaker 4: they won and they were sending a live for the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: I thought we'd get like a five or six here,

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Speaker 4: and I was like, man, they didn't move this at all.

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Speaker 4: I have to love the Steelers, right, I have to.

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Speaker 4: So that trend that you guys are talking about, I

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Speaker 4: looked at Doug a lot further. Okay, what else about it?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 4: Is it Homer away? Which of those is better? You

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Speaker 4: kind of look at the add one more factor. So

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Speaker 4: I found three things. The trend gets even stronger if

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Speaker 4: there's a low total, which we're at a very low

401
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Speaker 4: total here. I'll get to that in a second. Trend

402
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Speaker 4: gets even stronger if the underdog just won last week,

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Speaker 4: which the Browns won their game last week. And the

404
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 4: trend gets stronger if you're a touchdown under an underdog

405
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Speaker 4: with touchdown or less. So the Browns are three for three.

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Speaker 4: They're the one team that is the absolute bullseye and

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Speaker 4: all three of those trends. So they scared me off

408
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Speaker 4: of it. And I still I like the matchup for Pittsburgh,

409
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Speaker 4: but I think, yeah, those trends just really scared me

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Speaker 4: off the pick. I'm gonna stay in this game, but

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna take the under here. We did this one

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Speaker 4: on the hot read, but the Lion is kind of weird.

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Speaker 4: It dropped from forty and a half down to like

414
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Speaker 4: thirty eight and a half pretty quickly. Feeling pretty good.

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Speaker 4: We got a hot read in and then I just

416
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Speaker 4: moved right back up to forty and a half. But

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Speaker 4: I'm on danted give me the under. I think Luke,

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Speaker 4: that you're under selling the Steelers defense a little bit here.

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Speaker 4: With TJ a Lot, they're number one against the run,

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Speaker 4: top ten against the pass. Now admittedly normally with Lot

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00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 4: the numbers would be even better against the pass, So

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Speaker 4: I think you're right, he's probably not quite his usual

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Speaker 4: self here. But the key for me on this one

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Speaker 4: is the Browns. I don't believe in Deshaun Watson's offense.

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Speaker 4: We've done that lots of times. They're averaging twelve and

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Speaker 4: a half points a game with him on offense. It's

427
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Speaker 4: been hidden because they're winning games because the defense has

428
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Speaker 4: been so good. The Browns defense, we knew they had

429
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Speaker 4: a lot of talent those terrible early They've been killing

430
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Speaker 4: it against the pass lately. Their top six by dv

431
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Speaker 4: Away the last six weeks. I don't really I fear

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Speaker 4: Kenny picking the Steelers offense like they're not going to

433
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Speaker 4: hang up a big number here and it's going to

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Speaker 4: be one of those cold, close division rivalry, everything on

435
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Speaker 4: the line sort of games. It screams under to me

436
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 4: Avn Stefanski when the total is forty four below ten

437
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,160
Speaker 4: and four to the under, Deshaun Watson same spot, nine

438
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 4: and four to the under. And then if you look

439
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,479
Speaker 4: at just these games recently, the Steelers games have been

440
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 4: at forty one or below seven of the last eight games,

441
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 4: Brown's games all five since DeShawn came back. So everything

442
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 4: looks under here. For me, I'm going to stay away

443
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 4: from the side because all those trends scared me away

444
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 4: from it. But under forty and a half that's my

445
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 4: favorite total this week.

446
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 1: Excellent on to Jill. Second best bet for Week eighteen,

447
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 1: You're mute to my friend.

448
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 5: I knew I was going to have one of those

449
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 5: this season. It was my first one, so congrats.

450
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: Happy course for the whole crew. Yeah, I know, so again, therefore,

451
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: we can't edit it out, so sorry, all right.

452
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: Leave it in, David, leave it on squidy Pro. I'll

453
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 2: leave it alone, all right.

454
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 5: So last time I took an under on this show,

455
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 5: I took under thirty six and a half and got brutally.

456
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 2: Squeezed in the fourth quarter.

457
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 5: I am taking another under, but I'm going for the

458
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 5: AFC North and I'm looking at the Bengals Ravens matchup.

459
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,479
Speaker 5: I've taken under forty one and a half. This is

460
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 5: a bad, bad offense. With Tyler Huntley a quarterback. Lamar

461
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 5: Jackson isn't expected back even if he does play, which

462
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 5: is a stretch. I mean, he hasn't practiced with the

463
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 5: team in over a month, so I doubt that he's

464
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 5: gonna play.

465
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 2: So I think we're going to see a Huntly led offense.

466
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 5: And in four official starts with Huntley a quarterback, the

467
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 5: offense is averaging a nice, shiny twelve point two points

468
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 5: per game, and the Ravens have now scored twenty points

469
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 5: are fewer in five consecutive games for the first time

470
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 5: since twenty thirteen. And even if you go back the

471
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 5: last season, like only two of Huntley's ten total starts

472
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 5: have gone over this total, none in twenty twenty two.

473
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 5: Even Justin Tucker isn't really automatic anymore. He's missed a

474
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 5: couple of field goals, had a couple extra points blocked.

475
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 5: Looking at the defense though, this is another reason why

476
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 5: I'm really liking this under because you have a putrid

477
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 5: offense and a pretty good defense, especially with Brokwon Smith.

478
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 5: Ever since he's come to that Ravens defense, Baltimore is

479
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 5: only allowed one team to score over twenty points in

480
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 5: the eight games that he has been a Raven and

481
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 5: that was Jacksonville.

482
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 3: And it was a.

483
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,959
Speaker 5: Game that had four touchdowns in the fourth quarter and

484
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 5: three in the final five minutes of the game. So

485
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 5: I almost feel like that was more of a bad

486
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 5: beat more so than what is indicative of how this

487
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 5: game will play out. I mean, these two teams they

488
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 5: played each other in Week six. It was a nineteen

489
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 5: to seventeen game, and not to bring up to mar Hamlin,

490
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 5: but I do feel like there might be maybe a

491
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 5: little bit of emotional hangover maybe with the Bengals that

492
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 5: could play into it. Maybe to start the game, maybe

493
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 5: a little bit of a slower start. So I think

494
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 5: that could only contribute to an under. So I like

495
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 5: the under forty one and a half between the Bengals

496
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 5: and Ravens.

497
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: Bengals, Bengals and Ravens two of the top teams to

498
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 1: the under this year, Baltimore four and twelve to the over.

499
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: So yeah, they twelve with the sixteen games have been

500
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 1: under and the Bengals are up there as well. John

501
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: Harbaugh was asked earlier in the week about the status

502
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 1: of Lamar Jackson, and his quote was, I am probably

503
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: going to leave all that stuff alone. So a morale

504
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 1: thing too, right. I know you brought up the actual injury,

505
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: whether he's playing or not, But then is the team like, well,

506
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: you know, do we actually have a shot here with

507
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: no Lamar? This is getting a little ridiculous. I'm just hypothetical, Luke,

508
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: second best bet.

509
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 6: Please, So my second one is probably gonna be my

510
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 6: favorite one of the weekend, which is gonna be Rams

511
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 6: plus six and a half at the Seahawks. This is

512
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 6: another motivational one where the Seahawks need to win with

513
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 6: the chance to get into the playoffs.

514
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: The Rams will literally have nothing to play for.

515
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,719
Speaker 6: I mean, they don't have draft picks, so tanking doesn't

516
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 6: help them. I guess their only motivational factor is you

517
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 6: got a rivalry and they'll be on national TV. And

518
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 6: in the last couple of weeks you have seen this

519
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 6: Rams team play hard. McVeigh clearly has them focused and

520
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 6: motivated to get better. I guess you could say, and

521
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 6: there isn't a better matchup for the Baker Mayfield. The

522
00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 6: Seahawks are got awful defending running backs out of the

523
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 6: backfield and tight ends, and this matchup feels very much

524
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 6: like the matchup where we saw Baker Mayfield look phenomenal

525
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 6: against the Broncos on Christmas. The Broncos defense, if they

526
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 6: do have tendencies weaknesses, it's very similar to running backs

527
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 6: and tight ends, and I can see Baker doing exactly

528
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 6: what he did against the Broncos to the Seahawks defense,

529
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 6: which isn't even as good as the Broncos defense.

530
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 3: But Wafford put up three hundred and twenty yards against

531
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: the Seahawks a couple weeks ago when they played.

532
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 6: Baker's looking better every week, and I just think this

533
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 6: is the Rams spoiling the Seahawks. Where and if we

534
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 6: want to get into conspiracy theories, which I'm all for,

535
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 6: always everyone's complaining about the Seahawks playing before the Sunday

536
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 6: night football game where it might not matter for the Lions,

537
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 6: or if you believe in a good rigging, the Rams

538
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 6: will win for that game. To me, it's something to

539
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 6: the Lions. But that which brings me to the next

540
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 6: point where if the Seahawks win, but let's say they

541
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 6: don't cover, obviously, the Lions line is probably gonna be

542
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 6: looking like a live line where if the Seahawks come

543
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 6: out seven to zero, that four and a half that

544
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 6: the Lions are right now is gonna go up. And

545
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 6: I honestly Seahawks win. I love the Lions on Sunday

546
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 6: Night football, the four and a half is probably gonna

547
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 6: pop to six six and a half, which Dan Campbell

548
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 6: teams are historically the last two seasons of the most

549
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 6: motivated teams when they have nothing to play for by far,

550
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 6: and it just jumps into this angle that we've already

551
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 6: got into where teams having nothing to play for a

552
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 6: warning to spoil the teams that have everything to play for.

553
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 6: So definitely, if you have interest in the lines at

554
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 6: Sunday Night football, I would wait. And that line is

555
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 6: just gonna bounce around during the Seahawks Rams game the

556
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 6: entire time Seahawks score. It's gonna go up, Rams score,

557
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 6: It's probably gonna come down a little.

558
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 3: So take that.

559
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: You're not willing to then take the Rams plus two

560
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 1: thirty on the money line.

561
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 3: Oh obviously, Yeah cool, I'm already in on that. I

562
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 3: just don't know the ball is Jill.

563
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: That's like, oh okay, chills, just like which was a

564
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 1: common final one of the regular season. I thought you

565
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: might follow suit.

566
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 3: It's all he got from I gotta we gotta keep

567
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 3: this record on a positive for the powers that be. Okay,

568
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 3: all right, fair enough, Yeah, throw the money line in

569
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: f it. I don't care what I got. Yeah, do it.

570
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: God Brendan pressure peer pressuring me into uh yeah, plus

571
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 3: six and a half and money line.

572
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 2: Baby, I thought you were gonna call him a coward.

573
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 3: Seventy Now I'll do it plus two seventy.

574
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: So the beauty of the host chair is you can

575
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: just play both sides and get away with it.

576
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 3: It's fantastic.

577
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, what are you gonna do with your third pick?

578
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 6: Wait, gushe you have never given out a pick. I

579
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 6: know you're the host, but I think you should have

580
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 6: to give out a pick on the.

581
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 3: Last episode money line Rams.

582
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: No, you'll take like Maine Celtics money line or something.

583
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: Sure, and I will show you all the slip this weekend,

584
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: and I'll put in the app too, in the app too.

585
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 3: Fine. Well, so I think that we gave all right, Well,

586
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,360
Speaker 3: I think we gave.

587
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 4: Brandon the best pick on the podcast here because Luke,

588
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 4: you said Rams plus six and a half is your

589
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 4: favorite play of the week, it's mine too, and you

590
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 4: basically said everything I've got in my notes here. This

591
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 4: is another one that is a perfect setup that trend.

592
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,959
Speaker 4: This is my favorite spot of the trend for just

593
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 4: a team that I think that this line is just

594
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 4: too inflated here that you know, we talked in the

595
00:28:56,080 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 4: Titans game we are underpricing the Titans because they have

596
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 4: looked so terrible down the stretch. I think we're overpricing

597
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 4: Seattle and not taking into account. They've really looked pretty terrible.

598
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 4: Other than let's just admit it. Last week, the whole

599
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 4: podcast here was on the Jets against Seattle. It didn't

600
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 4: work out for us, but I think that was a

601
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: lot of Mike White coming off the injury looking rusty.

602
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: Seattle before that, all the way back to that Germany game,

603
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 4: all the way back to Seattle Island, Seattle had lost

604
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 4: every single game except when they played these rams. But

605
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 4: with John Wolford at quarterback and Baker Mayfield is not

606
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 4: John Wolford, Baker has actually played pretty well. If you

607
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 4: look at the numbers since Baker arrived, I think these

608
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 4: teams are pretty much even. Honestly, Baker's played pretty well.

609
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 4: Cam Akers looked trash early on, looked like he was

610
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: gonna get cut by the team. It turns out you

611
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 4: tear your achilles, you need some time. Suddenly, cam Akers

612
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 4: is like a fantasy football league winner, and he's putting

613
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 4: up big numbers for them, looking really good. Their offense

614
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 4: is good. Gino has been falling off slowly. Has a

615
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 4: season gone on? Like Luke said, sales defense sucks cost

616
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 4: me a bunch of money when I stayed down on

617
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 4: the Island a few two weeks too long there, Sales defense.

618
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: Is really cratered.

619
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 4: I think the teams are pretty well even, and yes,

620
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: Sale has the motivation to win, but that also means

621
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 4: they have the pressure to win. And like you said, Luke,

622
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 4: the Rams, what do they care? They just want to

623
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: end the season on a positive note.

624
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: Here.

625
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 4: They've won eight of the last eleven against Seattle. Y'a

626
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 4: always love to keep that edge over a division arrival.

627
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: And the Rams.

628
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 4: Look, they already won a super Bowl last year. This

629
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,479
Speaker 4: is their super Bowl. It's not quite as big as

630
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 4: stakes as it was last year. But for a season

631
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 4: that everything went wrong, just everything went terrible, why not

632
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 4: end on a good note. And I think there is

633
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 4: something to play for here. Cam Akers was about to

634
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 4: be out of the NFL the way the season was going.

635
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: He's playing for a spot in the Rams. Baker Mayfield

636
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 4: maybe is playing for the Rams starting quarterback spot. We

637
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 4: don't know what's happening with Matthew Stafford. So I think

638
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 4: these guys, the players are motivated. They want to come

639
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: out and show up here. I like the Rams. I

640
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 4: love the six and a half. Also, if you like

641
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 4: the Rams here, if you do think that they'll win.

642
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 4: If you're backing Luke's bold ballsy Rams money line pick,

643
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 4: and then like the Lions too, that right now, you

644
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 4: can play it right now, a Rams Lions money line parlay,

645
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 4: which is the back scenario where the Lions make the playoffs.

646
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: You get a plus.

647
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 4: Eight seventy nine if you play the money line parlay.

648
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 4: That's better odds than you can get to just take

649
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 4: Lions to make the playoffs, which is the only way

650
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 4: they make the playoffs. And so you play that now.

651
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 4: But and I think if you like that angle, if

652
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 4: you think the Rams win, you should play that now.

653
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 4: Because if the Rams do win, like Luke said, if

654
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 4: the Seahawks win, I think that line goes to Lions

655
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 4: plus six, Lions plus six and a half, I would

656
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: like it. Then if the Rams win, I think we

657
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 4: get down to like a Lions plus three or something,

658
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 4: and you.

659
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 3: Lose a little bit of value here. So if you

660
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: do like.

661
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 4: The Lions angle and you like the Rams, get that

662
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 4: money line parlay too. So I'm not gonna be goaded

663
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 4: into making that my official pick here. I'm gonna stick

664
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 4: with just Rams plus six and a half. But I

665
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 4: think that you want to play this multiple ways, and honestly,

666
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 4: I do think the Rams can win this out right well.

667
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: And to Brandon's point, folks, we're recording on a Thursday afternoon.

668
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: You cannot bet the Lions to make the playoffs right

669
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: now on FanDuel. So his point is you can just

670
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: bet it as a parlay, and that's what he's getting

671
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: at the bet the Rams money line and the Lions

672
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: money line. Parlay them and you get that nice big

673
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: number if you think that's what's going to happen. The

674
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: Lions are going to get in and if they beat

675
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: the Packers, and of course what happens in rams Seahawks. Wow,

676
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 1: how about that? Look how far we've come from the

677
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: island to this, backing Baker Mayfield in week eighteen for

678
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: not the Browns, not the Panthers, for the La Rams.

679
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: I like the host chair Jill best bet please.

680
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 5: All right, I'm going back to Saturday again, ditching the

681
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 5: spreads and totals. I am going for an anytime touchdown

682
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 5: bet and I'm taking Darren Waller with the Raiders to

683
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 5: score against the Chiefs this weekend at plus three thirty.

684
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 5: Now the Chiefs, they've given up four touchdowns and tight

685
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 5: ends in the last three games nine touchdowns on the season.

686
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 5: That's bottom three in the NFL. The Chiefs as well,

687
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 5: can be exploited over the middle, especially from slot receivers

688
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 5: and slot pass catchers. They are bottom three in catches

689
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 5: and touchdowns allowed to the slot, which is where Waller

690
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 5: lines up exclusively. And Waller he scored last year in

691
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 5: KC His odds at that time was.

692
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: Plus one seventy five.

693
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 5: That's one of the reasons why I'm looking at this

694
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 5: because this is a I don't want to say it's

695
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 5: crazy odds, but it almost seems disrespectful because in the

696
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 5: first four games he played this season, his odds were

697
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 5: below plus two hundred each time.

698
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: And that's what Derek Carr quarterback.

699
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 5: In three games since he's come back, he was plus

700
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 5: two to sixty versus the Patriots, he scored. He was

701
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 5: plus three to seventy against the Steelers, didn't score. Nobody

702
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 5: scored in that game really, and then he was plus

703
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 5: three eighty against the forty nine Ers and scored pretty

704
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 5: much within two minutes starting of the game. Pretty much

705
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 5: ran what I was a route right up the scene,

706
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 5: similar to the way that Gronkowski would do for the Patriots,

707
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 5: and again they're hanging at plus three thirty out there.

708
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 5: I just wind that to be disrespectful. Now, I would

709
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 5: also say that you could look at Hunter Renfro. The

710
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 5: issue with Renfro is since he's come back, he's playing

711
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 5: less than forty percent of the snaps so far. They're

712
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 5: going more for a two tight end set and leaving

713
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 5: DeVante Adams and mac Hollins on the outside. So I'm

714
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 5: not sure if he'll play enough snaps, but he is

715
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 5: around the plus four hundred plus four to fifty range

716
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,319
Speaker 5: could be worth a bet, But I think you need

717
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 5: to attack the slot receivers for the Raiders, and Darren

718
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 5: Waller at plus three thirty is going to score a

719
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 5: touchdown this Sunday or Saturday.

720
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: Love it?

721
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 1: Did you mention how the Chiefs? How do the Chiefs

722
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: do against tight ends?

723
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: Nine touchdowns on the season? That would be thirtieth in

724
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: the NFL.

725
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: Oh, put you right on the spot and you had

726
00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 1: it nice?

727
00:34:59,360 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 3: All right?

728
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: Take us home your final best bet for Week eighteen.

729
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 6: So my final one is gonna be the Commanders plus

730
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 6: seven hosting hosting.

731
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 3: I believe the Cowboys correct.

732
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 6: Where Commanders plus seven we got rookie QB, which I

733
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 6: want to say earlier this season, I was saying, like

734
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 6: you never want to bet against an unknown where if

735
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 6: you got a QB that's never made a start, like

736
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 6: you just avoid that where I don't know if this

737
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 6: applies here, but how look good in the preseason. He

738
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 6: has this absolute bazooka going against a Dallas defense that's

739
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 6: just been getting carved up. And the Cowboys been playing

740
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 6: down to their opponents. The last two weeks. They were

741
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 6: overtime with the Texans. Titans sat every single starter and

742
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 6: that game was a lot closer for most of the game.

743
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 6: I think anyone expected like they pulled away. But this

744
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,319
Speaker 6: Cowboys team, the only thing they have to play for

745
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 6: is that the Eagles lose, they'll have they can.

746
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 3: Win the division by winning.

747
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 6: But we just really don't know, like if the Cowboys

748
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 6: are going to rest starters, how long they're going to play,

749
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 6: and if it's like a first quarter and they sit

750
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 6: everyone like this plus seven like it's crazy. Where we

751
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 6: saw the Broncos line, it was like plus three and

752
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 6: a half yesterday and now they're minus two and a

753
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 6: half because the rest issues are coming into the Chargers

754
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 6: where that everyone thinks that they're going to be sitting

755
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 6: guys like the same thing.

756
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 3: Like, not to that extent.

757
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 6: I don't see the Commanders ever being favored, but that

758
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 6: gives you an idea of how much these lines can

759
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 6: move on rest. And we have no idea what the

760
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 6: Cowboys that might come out Friday, I think, but actually

761
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 6: the Eagles are coming on Friday. But if the Cowboys

762
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 6: have nothing to play for, cowboys are going to get

763
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 6: limited time. In my opinion, this plus seven is a

764
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 6: ton of value against a Dallas D that is susceptible

765
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 6: and the Commander's D that is very good.

766
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 1: You can find kind our Action Network luck rankings over

767
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,280
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app and also on the website.

768
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner Nick Giffin. They joined our daily show Green

769
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 1: Dot Daily earlier in the week and they brought up

770
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: this very scenario, Luke, not exactly to your point, but

771
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: the fact that the Eagles and Cowboys are playing at

772
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: the same time. Nick's angle was you could find some

773
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: edges on DAK Prescott live props if the game is

774
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 1: going a certain way in Philadelphia, that might urge Dallas

775
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 1: to take out DAK or remove offensive starters defensive starters.

776
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: If the game is going in a different direction, Jill,

777
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: you had something so as Brandon.

778
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 5: Well, it was more of a silly question. I wanted

779
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 5: to ask Luke does he downgrade Washington at all for

780
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 5: Ron Rivera not knowing that he would be eliminated from

781
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 5: the playoffs with the loss.

782
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, what is up with that?

783
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: That was just my last chance just to stick a yes.

784
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 3: No, I mean I will say Cooper Rush is a

785
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:55,760
Speaker 3: good backup.

786
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 6: So if I Cooper Rush all of a sudden comes in,

787
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 6: like I mean, he kind of got exposed.

788
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 3: Ray he's playing on has had but against the Eagles game.

789
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 6: But the Eagles are like I think everyone's expecting the

790
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 6: Giants to sit everyone where the Eagles are fourteen point

791
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 6: favorites right now. Yeah, so base off the spread. I

792
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 6: think whoever on the Cowboys staff is going to be

793
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 6: scoreboard watching. There might be a result that they're going

794
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 6: to know pretty soon. With the Eagles needing that win,

795
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 6: it might get out of hand.

796
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 4: So yeah, And I was gonna say to the same thing.

797
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 4: If you listen last week, our final look ahead was

798
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 4: the crazy like strings and notes and everything everywhere, and

799
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 4: we did the Saints money line last week, which hit

800
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 4: for US against the Eagles parlayed with the Cowboys money

801
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 4: line this week, So if you played that one, you've

802
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 4: got a Cowboys money line ticket right now plus eight

803
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 4: twenty one. When we gave it out, I saw some

804
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 4: plus seven ninety ones somewhere out there's something like an

805
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 4: eight to one. Well for me, the Cowboys I think

806
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 4: right now are closer to minus three hundred. So we've

807
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,719
Speaker 4: got an eight to one on what's currently a minus

808
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 4: three hundred. I'm I'm not gonna bet on Washington right

809
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 4: now to hedge, but that's when you've got to watch live,

810
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 4: because yeah, if the Eagles go up twenty one nothing

811
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,840
Speaker 4: midway into the second quarter, I don't know why Dallas

812
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 4: has nothing to play for. It turns into their the

813
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: five seed playing Tampa, who probably is going to sit there.

814
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 4: Guys this week, you don't want to give Tampa basically

815
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 4: the rest advantage there so depends on what you think.

816
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 4: I don't want to play now because we don't know

817
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,720
Speaker 4: if Jalen Hurts is gonna play, or if he's rusty,

818
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 4: or how that starts out. We don't know for sure

819
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 4: yet that the Giants will rest their starters. Maybe they

820
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 4: play a couple of series and it kind of hangs

821
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 4: close for a while. I suspect that the Cowboys will

822
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 4: take an early lead here of some amount, and that

823
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,319
Speaker 4: you'll get even better spot to make that Washington hedge

824
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 4: later if you want to, maybe you get.

825
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,439
Speaker 3: Like a five to one or something like that.

826
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, if you've got that look ahead, be aware

827
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 4: that you could get bad beaded here where like we've

828
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 4: got this great ticket and suddenly the game doesn't matter.

829
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 3: Be ready to protect against that live if you want to.

830
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 4: You or you know, you probably just got a small

831
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 4: hack uniton or something and we're just having a little

832
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 4: fun letting it roll. But yeah, this game could definitely

833
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 4: turn meaningless very quickly.

834
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: So Brandon, just to kind of drive that point home,

835
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: is there, have you imagined a scenario in your head?

836
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 1: Would you say to yourself, all right, I'm gonna go,

837
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna fire on Commanders live money line or or

838
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: points right.

839
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 3: I think for me, I'm just looking at the number.

840
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 4: Really, so I've got plus eight twenty one on basically

841
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 4: a Cowboys money line at this point. If I get

842
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 4: at some point a Washington money line close to that, whatever, well,

843
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 4: you know, Dallas goes up ten nothing or fourteen to three,

844
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 4: or Philly starts to go up.

845
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 3: Whatever.

846
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna pan excel here like I'm not going

847
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 4: to be suddenly. I'll give me the plus one hundred

848
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:46,919
Speaker 4: I got to get out of here.

849
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 3: It's fine. This was a parlay.

850
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: It was always a long shot, but basically just to

851
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 4: protect and lock in a profit. If we get suddenly

852
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 4: a Washington plus eight hundred, well great, I'll just make

853
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 4: my same bet on that side.

854
00:40:59,080 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: I'm done.

855
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 4: I don't have to worry about the scenarios anymore. I

856
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 4: lock in that I get one of the eight to

857
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 4: one tickets to hit, and I just don't have to

858
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 4: worry about it. So I think that's for me the

859
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 4: scenario that I look for. And otherwise, some of these

860
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 4: bet you try too hard to hedge, you end up

861
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 4: giving up the edge that you've created yourself. So I

862
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 4: won't go too crazy with it. But if we get

863
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 4: a long Washington line where we know things could really

864
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 4: flip around, you may as well lock something and then

865
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 4: just get out of there with your money.

866
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough, good stuff. So before we well before

867
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 1: we get out of here, we do we don't have

868
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 1: a look ahead for the next week because the playoffs

869
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 1: are next right, so there are currently no lines up

870
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: for the NFL Playoffs wild Card weekend, Super wild Card weekend. However,

871
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: before we go, we would like to go around the

872
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 1: horn and see if you guys have a conference future

873
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 1: or a title future that you have your eyes on

874
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: in the market that you might have your eyes on,

875
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: maybe previously before we started recording, or something you might project.

876
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: So we'll go around Brandon, is there something you'd want

877
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: to play now before the season conclude the regular season concludes.

878
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so it's obviously tricky. A lot of the future's

879
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 4: lines are not up at the books. You'll have to

880
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 4: watch maybe some of these reposts just before things kick

881
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 4: off on Sunday. Obviously, lots of schedule and unknowns in

882
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 4: the air right now. The team that I've been watching,

883
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 4: and we talked a little bit about this on Sunday night,

884
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 4: I want that AFC five seed, and it looks increasingly

885
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 4: likely to me that that's going to be the Los

886
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 4: Angeles Chargers, And boy does that make me queasy because

887
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 4: I do not want to back Joe Lombardi and the Chargers.

888
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: I've been dumping on him all season long, but I

889
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 4: think the Chargers you got to play the path in

890
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 4: these playoff spots. That's what we did last year. If

891
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 4: you listened last year, we had the forty nine Ers

892
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 4: because I like the path, and we got oh so

893
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 4: close before breaking our hearts. I'm looking at the last

894
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 4: time these lines were up, Chargers were around twelve to one.

895
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 3: To come out of the AFC.

896
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 4: Now, I don't really trust the Chargers to win three

897
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 4: games and get there. I at least want to believe

898
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 4: I can get to the AFC Championship game. And now

899
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 4: I've got options. Now I can head to decide how

900
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 4: I feel about it. So if the Chargers get the

901
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 4: five seed, and here's how they do that. Either they

902
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 4: win against Denver or they didn't even play yet. If

903
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,399
Speaker 4: the Ravens lose to the Bengals in the early game,

904
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 4: Chargers just rest their guys and now they have a

905
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 4: rest week off and then they get to go play

906
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 4: Tennessee or Jacksonville, who are playing all out brawl on

907
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 4: Saturday night. So you get a Chargers team that I

908
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 4: think we all think is better than Jacksonville. Certainly then

909
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 4: Tennessee on the road, but you get the better quarterback

910
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 4: justin Herbert, you have to feel pretty good about your

911
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 4: chances to at least have a decent shot there. Then

912
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 4: you probably go on the road to a one seed.

913
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 4: For a lot of reasons that game could be winnable.

914
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 4: Maybe it's against the Chiefs, who the Chargers always play

915
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 4: close and always seem to have a shot against. Maybe

916
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 4: it's against the Bills. We don't really know what state

917
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 4: of mind they would be in and coming off a

918
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 4: rest and whatever else. There's a lot of reasons why

919
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 4: the Chargers could go get that one. And now suddenly

920
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 4: you're in an AFC Championship game. You got some chances there.

921
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 4: So the stat that stood out to me with the Chargers,

922
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 4: I love their defense. Coming into the year, they were

923
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 4: terrible out of the gates. First seven weeks before the

924
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 4: bye week there were sixteenth, just average, but they were

925
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 4: terrible against the run, not great against the pass. They

926
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 4: got rid of Jerry Tillery, who I thought was really

927
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,719
Speaker 4: hurting the defense. Coming out of the bye week, they're

928
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,760
Speaker 4: ninth by DVA and defense number two against the pass.

929
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 4: Still not great against the run, but that's that Brandon

930
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 4: Staley formula, and the defense has actually played well and

931
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 4: now Joey Bosa comes back to so a lot of

932
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 4: words there. I like the Chargers because of the path

933
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 4: and the defense playing well. So I'll look to play

934
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 4: a Chargers future and see if we can hit the

935
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 4: right path.

936
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 1: Jillie like anything.

937
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 5: I mean, Brandon and I we talked about this on

938
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,399
Speaker 5: the Recap Pod just this past weekend when we were

939
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 5: projecting scenarios, and the Chargers were the first team that

940
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 5: I brought up because of that potential Jags Titans matchup.

941
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 5: But he kind of already broke down that kind of path,

942
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 5: So I'm with them there. I'm not going to propose

943
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 5: something as agree just says the Eagles tossing Week eighteen

944
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 5: to get the two seed, but I will say that

945
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 5: in the NFC, kind of like the Giants, that they

946
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 5: get the Vikings for a first round matchup. Again, part

947
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 5: of the reason why is not necessarily the path, but

948
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 5: can I get a team that I know is going

949
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 5: to at least win the first game, at least like

950
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 5: from an underdog standpoint. And again, the Vikings, I don't

951
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 5: want to trash them too much. I don't want Brandon

952
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 5: to hate me forever, but at the same time, it

953
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 5: is a winnable game in my opinion, just from a

954
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 5: luck standpoint, the way that that team plays, I feel

955
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 5: like they could kind of limit possessions and be able

956
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 5: to just eke out a win. And then potentially if

957
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 5: it's the second game, would be against an Eagles team

958
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 5: that we're not really sure from an injury standpoint where

959
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,360
Speaker 5: they are, So again, there's just a path at fifteen

960
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 5: to one. I'm not in love with it, But in

961
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 5: the NFC, that's really hard to find a team that

962
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,919
Speaker 5: I'm in love with. Like, I can't talk myself into

963
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 5: the Packers rep. So it would be the Giants, not Tampa. No,

964
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 5: I'm not even entertaining that thought. I'm not even entertaining

965
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 5: the idea that they will beat the Cowboys in the

966
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 5: opening round because if I do, I'm gonna let that

967
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 5: doubt creep into my heart and I'm just not gonna

968
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 5: be the same person and I can't do it.

969
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 6: All Right, Luke, You've got a future you like, so

970
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 6: I'm not I'm not gonna stamp this. I like in

971
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 6: terms but like in terms of value, where the Packers

972
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 6: have been like trending getting becoming more and more popular

973
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 6: last four weeks, where if you like the Packers, whether

974
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 6: it's like an NFC conference ticket or super rule or whatever.

975
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 6: They're currently they're not locked in to go to the playoffs.

976
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 6: And after they win Sunday Night and they've stamped their

977
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,280
Speaker 6: ticket to the playoffs, like their odds are definitely gonna

978
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 6: come come way down.

979
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 1: Where just before we keep going, didn't you play Packers

980
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: plus seventy five hundred to reach the NFC or to

981
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: win the conference? I did, act you did?

982
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:45,399
Speaker 2: Right?

983
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 3: Okay? Where wellout which is not available anymore.

984
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: But no, no, no, I'm just making it you've been on.

985
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:52,839
Speaker 1: This is my point, yes.

986
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 6: Where two like fun bets I made where I don't

987
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 6: honestly don't have many Superbowl futures right now.

988
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 3: Everything I have is on the Bengals actually, like I

989
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 3: just I love them.

990
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 6: Where honestly, just whoever you think is gonna win the

991
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 6: Super Bowl, if it's one of the big three in

992
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 6: the AFC or the Chargers or whatever. You can like

993
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 6: AFC team to beat the Bucks, AFC team to beat

994
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 6: the Packers, which I did.

995
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 3: With the Bengals yesterday.

996
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 6: I was tempted to do with the Chiefs, but it

997
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,720
Speaker 6: was like one hundred and twenty five to one, ninety

998
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 6: to one, which the Packers were one hundred and twenty

999
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 6: five to one, and they win Sunday Night, will probably

1000
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 6: go down to ninety to one. Where right now the

1001
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 6: Bucks have better NFC Conference odds than the Packers because

1002
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 6: they're locked into the playoffs, and I think they're ten

1003
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 6: to one right now, where after they went. The Packers

1004
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 6: win on Sunday Night, assuming they do, their odds should

1005
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 6: be better than the Bucks in my opinion. But I'm

1006
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 6: very much invested in the Bengals, and I do like

1007
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,719
Speaker 6: Dable a little bit for Coach of the Year at

1008
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 6: his odds, which I think have come down. That would

1009
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 6: be a shot in the dark that I think there

1010
00:47:58,000 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 6: is value based on the human aspect of.

1011
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 3: But that's it.

1012
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 1: Okay, day Ball plus two fifty as we speak to

1013
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: you on Thursday, plus two to fifty on the Fanduels

1014
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 1: Sports Book, Shanahan the favorite plus one seventy five. Nick

1015
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 1: Sirianni of the Eagles at plus two hundred. All right, Jens,

1016
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: that's it. We gotta get out of here. A good show,

1017
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: a lot to break down with a unique week because

1018
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: of these must wins. Eliminated teams look I got suckered

1019
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 1: into a pick Rams money Line. The ticket will be in,

1020
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 1: it will be in the app, and it will be

1021
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: visible to all of you. There we go, baby, the

1022
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: vibes man. So we have to pick twenty twenty three.

1023
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 6: We're never going to lose a bat Well, we got

1024
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 6: the host putting bets out.

1025
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 1: Lock suckered into it, all right. Here are the picks.

1026
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, here are his three. He's on Tennessee plus

1027
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 1: six and a half. He's parlaying the six and a

1028
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: half plus the under forty points in Tennessee Jacksonville odds

1029
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: are plus two seventy one. That's pick number one. His

1030
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 1: second pick Pittsburgh Cleveland under forty and a half he

1031
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: gave it out in the hot read from Sunday. And

1032
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: his third pick Rams plus six and a half, Jill

1033
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,840
Speaker 1: Galant is on Tennessee money Line. Jill just took it

1034
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: a step further Tennessee money Line Baltimore Sincy under forty

1035
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 1: one and a half and Darren Waller to score a touchdown.

1036
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: The odds at plus three point thirty to score against

1037
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:18,600
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Luke is on Cleveland plus two and a half.

1038
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 1: Rams plus six and a half and money Line Asterisk

1039
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 1: host persuaded him and Commanders plus seven and then the

1040
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 1: host me, I am on rams money Line, just gonna

1041
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 1: give it out there and it will be in.

1042
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 3: It's coming.

1043
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 1: Thanks to our producer David Pain behind the scenes Matt Mitchell,

1044
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: They've been huge in terms of our production this year,

1045
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: getting us up and running for these Best Bets episodes.

1046
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: We will be joining you throughout the playoffs. We're not

1047
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: going anywhere, but just kind of a wrap up the

1048
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: regular season, a nice neat nice neat bo. Thank you

1049
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: all so much for tuning in, and we look forward

1050
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: to being with you throughout the playoffs as well. Action

1051
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 1: Network Podcast presented by Fandle That's your Week eighteen Best

1052
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: Bets episode and Anderson, Joe Gallant, Luke Swayin, Bridon Glass

1053
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 1: Sheen best to Fluck this weekend. We'll see you for

1054
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 1: the recap episode on Monday morning right here on the

1055
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:20,720
Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast.

1056
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1057
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

1058
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,720
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler