1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan. Without further ado, 4 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: That's what the game's all about, Osten. 5 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 2: You feel like you can't miss. 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 3: I'm if you try that again, Absolutely not trying to. 7 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. 8 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 5: I'm your host Matt Moore for this special NBA Playoff 9 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 5: preview edition. 10 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 4: Great to have you join us. Thanks for making us 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 4: part of your day. 12 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 5: For today's episode, I've got Preston Johnson and Justin Fan. 13 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 5: Preston Johnson can be found on ESPN's Daily Wager. 14 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 4: He's found on. 15 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 5: Twitter at sportssheetah and is one of the best NBA 16 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 5: betting minds in the business along with Justin Fan. Another 17 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 5: of the greatest NBA betting minds in the business. Justin 18 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 5: is obviously with us over at the Action Network, a 19 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 5: supreme scientist over at the Action Network with Fantasy Labs 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 5: and his special insider tool, the Fan Wagon, as Chad 21 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 5: Milman is always talking about for some reason because he 22 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 5: loves puns. They are two of the sharpest minds I 23 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 5: think in NBA betting, and I want to really get 24 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 5: some real insight, not on the specific series from a 25 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 5: narrative sense, but from a betting perspective to look at 26 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 5: where you're gonna find the best prices. How do you 27 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 5: bet these series? What are the numbers that you're looking at? 28 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 5: The NBA playoffs are here and that's what you should 29 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 5: bett on because they're awesome. Right now, going into next week, 30 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 5: you got time to chew on these numbers and look 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 5: at what the best value is. We're reacting to some 32 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 5: of the early lines that came out from Points Bet, 33 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 5: DraftKings and FanDuel. There will be other lines up tomorrow 34 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 5: and we'll have complete analysis on the Action Network, which 35 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 5: you can find on our app, which you should download 36 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 5: immediately because it's going to tell you when the odds 37 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 5: change immediately. Can get notifications, updates on your bets, track them, probabilities, 38 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 5: all of our analysis. It's an awesome versatile tool for 39 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 5: any gambler. You need to check it out. Download er 40 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 5: app today. Okay, I hope you guys enjoy it. 41 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 4: Here's my conversation with Preston Johnson and Justin Fann. 42 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: The NBA is back. 43 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 3: Can we get serious? 44 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: So let's bet the bubble? 45 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 5: It may sound easy, but it will test your head 46 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 5: and your mind and your brain too. All right, So 47 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 5: we have all a playoff series set. We do not 48 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 5: have prices on everything as of yets. Those will probably 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:32,679 Speaker 5: be out by the time that you were listening to 50 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 5: this podcast. 51 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 4: But do you have some early lines that we want 52 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 4: to look at. 53 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 5: I want to go over some of the serious prices 54 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 5: for the first round impressions general betting strategies for the 55 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 5: NBA Playoffs in twenty twenty during this restart inside this bubble. 56 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 4: So Preston, let's start with you. 57 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 5: Do you typically do a lot of series betting or 58 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 5: do you just stick the game by game? 59 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: I do bet a lot of serious stuff, whether it 60 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 2: be just for a team to win, yes or no 61 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: money line prices or the actual series. Game props are 62 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: really fun, right, like plus two and a half games 63 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 2: one or minus one and a half games one. The 64 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 2: reason I think that there's always like value is value, right, 65 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 2: So like, if I have a value in a game tonight, 66 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: I'm going to bet it. If I have value in 67 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: a series, I'm going to bet it. The difference or 68 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: the preference for series for me compared to game to 69 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 2: game is just the limited variance. So like if you think, 70 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 2: even like a college football season win total, I love 71 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 2: a total over the. 72 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: Course of twelve games. 73 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: That variance right within twelve games is a lot less 74 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: than anything can really happen in one game. So whether 75 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 2: you know, I think there's an edge in one game, 76 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 2: I'm going to be betting those and know that long term, 77 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 2: you know, I'm probably going to be profitable with that. 78 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 2: If I can get a seven game NBA series and 79 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: a similar edge in a series of seven games, or 80 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: I think the more common or expected outcome will occur 81 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 2: over seven games than just one, because again anything can 82 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 2: really happen in one game, then I'm going to go 83 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: that route. So I do end up betting the series 84 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 2: game to game as well, but I hone in and 85 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: I fire pretty heavily on the series prices, the plus 86 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 2: games minus games. There's some other props over unders as 87 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: far as total games, Like you know, it doesn't matter 88 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: who wins, if it's like a close series, it's about 89 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: to pick them. You think it's gonna go six or 90 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: seven games, you can bet over five and a half 91 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 2: games play. There's there's a ton of options. They definitely 92 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: can offer value. 93 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, the the over the over under games played in 94 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 5: the wins. I think that those are those are really 95 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 5: tempting bets to get a little bit more value, especially 96 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 5: on some of these where the odds are so so 97 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 5: tough on the favorites. Justin sure, do you tend to 98 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 5: go do you like series prices you get in on 99 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 5: on these kind of things, or do you focus. 100 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 4: On the futures and the end game betting? 101 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 6: I usually like the plus minus games if I'm looking 102 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 6: at the serious prices, like you said that, I know 103 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 6: some of these serious prices. 104 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 3: The Bucks are. 105 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 6: Minus ten thousand, the Raptors are minus thirty three hundred, 106 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 6: like you get just really aggressive pricing for the favorites 107 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 6: to where in a lot of cases there are not 108 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 6: there's not a lot of value. There's some interesting, really 109 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 6: interesting series though to look at pricing, you know, the 110 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 6: Nuggets and the Jazz in the first round, really looking 111 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 6: at that Rocket's thunder price when it does come out. 112 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: So yeah, those are two. 113 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,720 Speaker 6: I think I'm gonna look at in particular, but usually 114 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 6: I'm probably gonna look at the plus or minus games 115 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 6: and then just that game the game mainly. 116 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 5: All right, So let's start actually with the first game 117 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 5: of the NBA Playoffs, which is going to be Nuggets Jazz, 118 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 5: because bearing it at eleven o'clock on a Monday is 119 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 5: the furthest that the NBA could bury it without putting 120 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 5: it on true TV. So the Jazz at DraftKings or 121 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,679 Speaker 5: plus one thirty five Nuggets or minus one seventy seven. 122 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 5: And President, you were telling me before we went on 123 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,239 Speaker 5: air that you think that based off of the opening line, 124 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 5: which is there's a line of fan duel where that's 125 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 5: got the Nuggets mius three and a half open, do 126 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 5: you think that that Mius won seventy seven is a 127 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 5: little short. 128 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 2: Sure, So regardless of whether or not you like the 129 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: Nuggets or the Jazz to win the series, I personally 130 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: we can get into the details like the Nuggets, and 131 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 2: I think minus one seventy seven is short. But just 132 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: look at the fandel opener here Game one. It is 133 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: a FanDuel opener. 134 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: Right. 135 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 2: It's not the most efficient number or price we're going 136 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 2: to get, but just these are things you need to 137 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:10,840 Speaker 2: be looking at and considering. Look, they're minus three and 138 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 2: a half, a three and a half point favorite in 139 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 2: the NBA historically wins just over sixty percent of the time. 140 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 2: It's about a money line of sixty percent. You can 141 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 2: run the sixty percent in a series the likelihood that 142 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 2: a sixty percent probability team because we have neutral court, 143 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 2: there's not going to be home road splits. It's going 144 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: to be a best of seven where, barring injury, the 145 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 2: team and in this case, then I get to win 146 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 2: each game about sixty percent of the time. Over the 147 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 2: course of seven games that I just ran it, it's 148 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 2: about sixty nine and a half percent that they win 149 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 2: the series. You break that down, it's like a minus 150 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 2: two thirties minus two forty price and it's only a 151 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: minus win seventy seven. So in theory, if you think 152 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 2: the minus three and a half is about a fair 153 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 2: line in a one game against the Jazz, assuming they 154 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 2: get some health back, I don't know. Will Barton still questionable, 155 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 2: Gary Harris is still questionable. I don't want to rush 156 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 2: to bed it for some reasons, but if they're looking 157 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 2: like they're going to be healthy because they were playing 158 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 2: so well despite the lack of health in this bubble restart, 159 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 2: I actually really like the Denver side. MPG obviously flourished, 160 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 2: looks like he finally made an official leap and he 161 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: can be a secondary score or their main score maybe 162 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 2: at some point, even if it comes down to it. 163 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: And the Jazz is just kind of have been ams 164 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: and they're not very deep, which is like the opposite 165 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 2: of Denver. I don't know if I can trust them 166 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 2: without by Danovich. They haven't played well in the bubble either, 167 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: So I like the Nuggets. I'm going to see Way 168 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 2: and hear about the injuries. You might have some info there, Matt, 169 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 2: as far as where they're at. It was good to 170 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: see Jaba Murray back. But even just comparing kind of 171 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: Game one prices to serious prices, where should these be, 172 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 2: There's going to be inefficiencies, especially if you're able to 173 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 2: shop around. 174 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 5: So I think probably the best intel I can give 175 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 5: is that I don't expect Harris back at least at 176 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 5: the start of the playoffs. 177 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: I don't think he'll be available. 178 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 5: Okay, I think Barton will probably be available at least 179 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 5: by game two. But that's a guess on my part 180 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 5: that's not based on any harder intel. That's me and 181 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 5: me intoiting things from that i've heard, and Evan said 182 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 5: that I am making an educated guess that Game two 183 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 5: for Barton would probably be the earliest, I seem, and 184 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 5: he hasn't played with the team at all since the 185 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 5: scrimmage is, so who knows how that's going to look. 186 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 5: I would assume it he comes off the bench. My understanding 187 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 5: is MPJ is starting no matter what going forward, but 188 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 5: you might just slide into the two spot for Tory Craig. So, 189 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,559 Speaker 5: justin based on that series price, I'm kind of thinking 190 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 5: that the over under on wins and we're having to 191 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 5: project these because these aren't out yet, but that kind 192 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 5: of indicates that they think it's going to go longer 193 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 5: in the Jazz have at least a good shot of 194 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 5: winning the series, so that that might be one where 195 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 5: actually the Nuggets side, if you like it, is going 196 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 5: to be probably more valuable and a better price than 197 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 5: maybe getting because you may have I would bet that 198 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 5: I would think that the you know games won by Jazz, 199 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 5: you know two and a half for an over under, 200 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 5: I don't think there's much value there. 201 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: Am I off on that? 202 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 6: I mean, I'm really liking the Jazz in this series, 203 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 6: and I actually no, I like the Nuggets in this series. 204 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 3: Just kidding. 205 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 6: So the bench play is the biggest difference for me, 206 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 6: I mean this this front court, especially, you hone in 207 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 6: on a second unit front court Mason Plumley and Jeremy 208 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 6: Grant versus Meang and Tony Bradley. 209 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 3: Like that's a huge difference. 210 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 6: For me, and and they're kind of expected plus minus 211 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 6: when when those units are on the court together. And 212 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 6: you know, we've seen Denver really have to lean heavily 213 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 6: on their depth so far without Gary Harris, Will Barton, 214 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 6: without Jamal Murray at points, and that's been a good thing. 215 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 3: Like we've seen really good things from PJ Doser, you know. 216 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 6: MPJ has been great, Jeremy Grant has been great, you know, 217 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 6: and they've gotten good play from like Monte Morris Bowl 218 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 6: Bowl at points. 219 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 3: So this team has been equipped to play shorthanded. 220 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 6: Anything you kind of throw in there, you get a 221 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 6: couple of games of Will Barton, that's just the bonus. 222 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,719 Speaker 6: So I feel really confident. We've seen a couple of 223 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 6: games from Jamal Murray so far. He got up to 224 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 6: like thirty nine in that double overtime game, so he's 225 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 6: you know, kind of off that minute limit. And and 226 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 6: mpj's just emergence has been phenomenal for this team. 227 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 3: So I just feel really great about their chances. 228 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 6: I think the Jazz depth is still it's their biggest 229 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 6: issue without Bogdanovich. So those bench, those bench minutes are 230 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 6: going to continue to be a problem. 231 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I wind up. 232 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 5: I mean, I'm gonna pay attention to what that the 233 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 5: game's one price goes. I actually will probably also look 234 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 5: at total games played. I don't trust Denver to put 235 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 5: them away. Like That's one of the things is like, 236 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 5: even if Denver goes up three to one, I'm probably 237 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 5: betting the Jazz and the elimination game. 238 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 2: Game kind of like San Antonio last year. You never 239 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 2: really feel like they'd lose to San Antonio and then 240 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 2: it goes seven games anyway, Right, it's just. 241 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 4: Like they just they can't. They don't. I don't know that. 242 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 5: I haven't seen them have a gear where they just 243 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,439 Speaker 5: slam the door and they they swear they have it, 244 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 5: like that's This has been the thing. I've talked about 245 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 5: this a lot on Locked on Nuggets is like a 246 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 5: podcast I'm on a lot is Denver the entire year 247 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 5: has been like whenever I Malone has screeched and hollered 248 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 5: about their defense or about their effort, they've continuously been like, yeah, yeah, 249 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 5: we know how long the season is now, we're playing 250 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 5: for this time. 251 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,080 Speaker 4: But part of me is just like, yeah, but you've 252 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 4: been the team that sucks on defense for like four 253 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 4: months now. At some point that's just who you are. 254 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: So I I do think that the Jazz hang around. 255 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 5: I love the matchup for the Nuggets, this kind of thing, 256 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 5: so like I am, we all look to bet them 257 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 5: like this three. 258 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 4: And a half line. 259 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 5: I'm gonna go ahead and get in on because I 260 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 5: think I like Denver very much in the series. Game 261 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 5: by game. I think Jogic does very well versus Gobert. 262 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 5: He lost him the last game in the season last year. 263 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 5: He hasn't lost to him since, and he's absolutely flumb 264 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 5: bade him. 265 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 4: I like MPJ versus them. I don't. Part of it 266 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 4: was the Jazz. 267 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 5: If you look at that last game, in the double 268 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 5: overtime game, the Chess made an unreasonable amount of threes, 269 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 5: just incredible three point shooting. 270 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 4: He's still lost in double overtime. 271 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 5: That's a really bad tign that you can light up 272 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 5: a bad Nuggets defense for that many threes when you're 273 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 5: a Utah team that doesn't have that much firepower, good 274 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 5: shooting team, but you can create that many threes and 275 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 5: he still can't get it done. 276 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 4: I think that that's really concerning. 277 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 6: They hit twenty two threes in that double overtime game, 278 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 6: and Denver shot nine for thirty seven. They only shot 279 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 6: twenty four percent from three, and that was Merged first 280 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 6: game back too, and he was limping noticeably, and they 281 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 6: still came up short. So I mean, just look at 282 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 6: that game. It's it's kind of concerning for for the Jazz. 283 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 6: When their offense gets hot, their offense, you know, puts 284 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,199 Speaker 6: up a one to twelve offensive rating and still comes 285 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 6: out short. 286 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 3: Where does this offense come from this team? 287 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 6: We've seen from the Utah they've been their offense has 288 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 6: been so so bad. Generally, they've struggled to really create 289 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 6: consistent offense. It's been a lot of Donovan Mitchell is 290 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 6: so Donovan Mitchell creating, and everybody else kind of staying 291 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 6: around Preston, how are you feeling about this Jazz offense 292 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 6: in this matchup? 293 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 2: So this will never happen, but if I'm really thinking 294 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 2: about now, this will probably be the case maybe Game three, 295 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 2: if Denver goes up to oh But like Matt mentioned 296 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 2: Jokic has kind of torn Gobert up. He's the opposite 297 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 2: matchup for Gobert where Jokic can actually make a difference 298 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 2: from behind the three point line, whether he's shooting, passing, 299 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: setting screens, take overt out of the paint at some 300 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: point if the Jazz are struggling to score too, and 301 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 2: Jokicic is, you know, crushing Gobert, Like do you just 302 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:49,559 Speaker 2: go small? 303 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 4: Now? 304 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 3: What was nice last year at times? 305 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 2: You know against Houston especially, you know, Utah could play 306 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: favorites at the fiable. They don't even have him, they 307 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 2: have Yang and Bradley like, like, they're just not deep 308 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 2: in any regard. And if go Bear's strengths are basically 309 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 2: you know, fort it by what Denver can do. Yeah, 310 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 2: it's a great question. You have to try to outscore 311 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 2: them and then they're just not a team you can 312 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 2: trust to score. And so it's kindly going to play 313 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 2: like he did years ago and try to kind of 314 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 2: be more of a score. Can Eagles be that guy? 315 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 2: They're just I don't think either of those guys are 316 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 2: the answer. So I just again mashup White. Denver really 317 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 2: has quite the advantage and I'd be surprised if this 318 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 2: serious price stayed in that one seventies range. I would 319 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 2: expect it to come up some for sure. 320 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 5: So let's go to Rockets Thunder, which is obviously compelling 321 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 5: on just so many reasons. Chris Paul versus the team 322 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 5: news on last year, and these two teams have always 323 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 5: been kind of like Starcross a little bit. Their faiths 324 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 5: are very much intertwined. So it's a narratively compelling matchup 325 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 5: for the media. I think immediately everyone that's pretty smart 326 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 5: in terms of analysis looked at the value of are 327 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 5: going to be looking for the value on the Thunder. 328 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 4: So it opened. 329 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 5: I think Thunder plus three twenty at points bet that's 330 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 5: down to two twenty five after the RUSS news. 331 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 4: That's the only line that we have up right now. 332 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 4: And obviously, like I. 333 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 5: Would expect, probably I would expect maybe the Vegas number 334 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 5: to be a little bit shorter, probably on the Thunder 335 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 5: because they know the Thunder are probably gonna get bet 336 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 5: pretty heavy. 337 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 4: Is there? 338 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 5: You have to make the Rockets the favorite. I can't 339 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 5: see any scenario where they can't make the Rockets the favorite. 340 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 5: Does that implicitly put value on OKAC. 341 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 6: Justin absolutely and you look at the reports on Westbrook 342 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 6: so far, they're expecting to miss probably a minimum of 343 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 6: two games, if not three, if not four, So it 344 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 6: doesn't look like they'll have him for the majority of 345 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 6: the series. 346 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 3: And it just puts a huge load on James Harden. 347 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 6: And if you're okay, see why are you not doubling 348 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 6: you loading up on him and making the other guy's beat. 349 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:49,359 Speaker 3: It's a pretty obvious strategy. 350 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 6: And how confident are you and Eric Gordon to be 351 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 6: that guy that steps up? I think he's really that 352 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 6: X factor for the Rockets in the series. He just 353 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 6: came back from that injury. He's looked pretty spray, He's 354 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 6: looked good. But we've seen Eric Gordon struggle for a 355 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 6: large periods of time to consistently hit threes. So they're 356 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 6: gonna need him pretty heavily in this series. And the 357 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 6: X factor to Dennis Shruder just got back to the 358 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 6: Orlando campus a couple of days ago. They'll have that 359 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 6: deadly fourth quarter lineup with Shooter in that mix that 360 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 6: leads a league in net rating. 361 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 3: They'll have that at the disposal. 362 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 6: They haven't had that during the restarts, So I lean, okay, 363 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 6: see pretty heavily in this years I've been on the 364 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 6: Rockets as that like wild card in the in the 365 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 6: in the Western Conference, I have at fourteen oh one. 366 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 6: I like that they're a team that's really built on 367 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 6: variants there they kind of went the logical extreme and 368 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 6: they're a team that can shoot fifty sixty threes in 369 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 6: a game and if they hit anywhere close to forty percent, 370 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 6: they're in or winning pretty much any game. So it's 371 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 6: just really unfortunate for them how things have kind of 372 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 6: turned out with Westbrook. 373 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: PJ. Tucker got banged up the other day. 374 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 6: Like the health has not been good at all for 375 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 6: this team, so little snake bit. So that's why I'm 376 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 6: definitely signing on the with the with the thunder and 377 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 6: just plain for number to come out. 378 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 5: So Preston, I mean, I think the value that he 379 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 5: has to be on Oka see because this is a 380 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 5: situation where my thought was going into the playoffs that 381 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 5: the Rockets. I mean, this is a back before the 382 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 5: even restart happened, is I was like, Okay, I'm probably 383 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 5: gonna be looking for the Rockets in any situation which 384 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 5: they're an underdog, but if they're a favorite, I go 385 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 5: the other way, like the variance becomes like a liability 386 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 5: when you're the team that's trying to maintain a higher level, 387 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 5: and I feel like Okac's floor is pretty high. One 388 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 5: thing I think is surprising a lot of people is 389 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 5: like the Okayse's offense is really good, Like they're solid 390 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 5: on defense, but they're and a pretty effective offense as well, 391 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 5: with Paul and Shake Gillers, Alexander and Gallo and having 392 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 5: Steven Adams to finish the low door injury I think 393 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 5: hurts a little bit, but he is if the news 394 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 5: was good on him. It's a knee sprain, so if 395 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 5: the series goes long, he might be back by the. 396 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 4: End of it. 397 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 5: Is there anything besides just Thunder has to be the 398 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 5: play that you're looking at when you go into this, I. 399 00:16:58,400 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 3: Don't think so. 400 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 2: I'm on board with basically everything that justin said one 401 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 2: because I need the rockets features. I'm on board with 402 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: the rockets and the high variance approach, and this matchup's 403 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 2: just pretty brutal. Then you have Russ It's gonna probably 404 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 2: get to miss a few games. Then on top of it, 405 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,439 Speaker 2: like just the price wise, like there you know the 406 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 2: early markets plus three twenty. I see also plus two 407 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 2: ninety for the Thunder. I mean they're plus one and 408 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: a half in this first game line. It's an early line, 409 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 2: it's an opener, but this is very close to you know, 410 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: what they're saying is a pick them game on a 411 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 2: neutral and these are all seven neutral games. Again, you 412 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 2: can get three to one. This team wins four out 413 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,199 Speaker 2: of seven. And then to his point about how they 414 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 2: can probably double hard and make someone else beat them 415 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 2: when Russ is off the floor in these games, even 416 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 2: if they're a single and isoing on Harden and they 417 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 2: decided not to do that, Chris Paul probably one of 418 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 2: the better options you can have. Shaigilgas Alexander's another good option. 419 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 2: You can even throw Roberson on them for a stretch 420 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: if you want to just go all out for three 421 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 2: to four minutes. 422 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 3: At some point, they have options. 423 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 2: And then obviously having Adams as a help guy isn't 424 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 2: you know, a bad thing either. So I think they're 425 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: matchup wise pretty much perfect, and on top of it, 426 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 2: I think they're tied for second in opponent three point percentage. 427 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 2: We know the Rockets like the blast off a ton 428 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 2: of threes. Them and Boston are just a few decimal 429 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 2: points of a percent behind Toronto, who leads the nba 430 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 2: U put on a three point percentage. So just the 431 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 2: way they defend and whatnot. You know, they're closing out 432 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: hard and that's just one of their advantages on. 433 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 3: Top of it. 434 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 2: So definitely the thunder and that three to one range. 435 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 2: It's just kind of crazy, how I assuming you know 436 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 2: Russ is going to be missing games. 437 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 3: We gave him some love too. 438 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 6: I want to give a little bit more love to 439 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 6: Darius Baisley because his emergence just adds a whole different wrinkle, 440 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:26,919 Speaker 6: especially if lou Dort has to miss time. Play a 441 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 6: little backup five when they've been show without Steven Adams 442 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 6: and nerlands no well in the in the restart and 443 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,960 Speaker 6: he's shooting you know, forty seven from three since the restart, 444 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 6: hitting like two and a half a game. I mean 445 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 6: that fourth quarter the other night when they made that 446 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 6: furious comeback, he had you know, sixteen points I think, 447 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 6: like on six shots and four for four from three. 448 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 6: I mean, his emergence is pretty underrated and gives him 449 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 6: a nice little wrinkle off the bench. 450 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 5: Love the baslely love, that's what people come to the 451 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 5: Action Network for Darius's basely that's right. So this one 452 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 5: feels very much like this is the exact kind of 453 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 5: series where I have to tell myself not to go 454 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 5: near it because I'm going to talk myself into the 455 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 5: underdog and I need to not do that. 456 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 4: I'm not talking to hate Pacers. Okay, the East four 457 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 4: or five justin as the king of injuries are the 458 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 4: most impactful thing to jump on news is how you 459 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 4: navigate the bets. TJ. Warren has minor planter fasciitis, which 460 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 4: doesn't make any sense because it's kind of a binary thing. 461 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 4: Either you have it or you don't. It's painful. The 462 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 4: only way for it to get better is to arrest it. 463 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 4: Can't do that. He was liquid fire all throughout the restart. 464 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 4: This problem, you know, gets to him. Some bonus is 465 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 4: not expected back, but it's also hasn't been ruled out. 466 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 4: They've looked really good in the restart. They're plus one seventy. 467 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 4: I have to lay two thirteen with Miami for a 468 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 4: better three point shooting team. Help me figure this one out. 469 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 2: So my first glance and thought about this series is 470 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: outside of and potentially being somewhat injured or hampered, but 471 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: I mean, the Pacers are overvied at this point. 472 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 3: TJ. Warren, There's just no way he doesn't come. 473 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 2: Back to Earth regardless of injury. You don't have some bonus. 474 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: He was kind of keeping him through this phase of 475 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 2: the restart playing at a level that's just higher than 476 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 2: they're going to play. So everyone's perception of Indiana in 477 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 2: this restart I think is just a little bit kind 478 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 2: of fantasy land, Like, I mean, are you really relying 479 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 2: on this version of Oladipo if DJ Warren is not 480 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 2: the same DJ Warren? On top of that, he maybe 481 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 2: is playing injured. Now Brogden's not really guy you can 482 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 2: play on yet. I think it's Miami. And so if 483 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 2: you're kind of worried about talking yourself into the dog, 484 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 2: I think Miami gets it done. I think when it's 485 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 2: all said and done, in some of these especially like 486 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 2: these first dround matchups that you want to see are 487 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 2: semi close, just taking the best player in the series 488 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 2: is probably not the bad option. So if Jimmy Butler 489 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 2: is able to just kind of do his thing and 490 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 2: handle it, Plus if all those shooting weapons, I'm not 491 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 2: sure the Pacers can keep up in that regard either 492 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,679 Speaker 2: with just the amount of like just the math problem 493 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 2: of the Heat hitting and shooting more threes and the 494 00:20:58,080 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 2: Pacers you're going to be attempting and making it just 495 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 2: unless TJ. 496 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 3: Warren is doing a seven to ten. 497 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 2: From three thing, which is it's not going to happen 498 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 2: over the course of the series, especially in a playoff series, 499 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 2: when teams are going to be like, Okay, you're the 500 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 2: only guy making shots. We will make sure you don't 501 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 2: shoot anymore. Even the other night he had zero in 502 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,719 Speaker 2: the second half of the last half to be played. 503 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 2: Maybe it was kind of having to do relation to 504 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: this injury. Regardless, I think it's Miami. I'm not sure 505 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 2: the line's necessarily short. I think anything around minus two 506 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 2: hundred is fair from what I have, I have the 507 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 2: Heat winning the series with most of bonus sixty eight 508 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 2: percent of the time is basically right on. 509 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 6: I don't trust the health of the Pacers, Like their 510 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 6: main guys have all been banged up. 511 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 3: TJ. Warren, now Oladipo. 512 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 6: Broggin, They've all popped up in the injury report pretty 513 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 6: much every game so far. They're just kind of managing 514 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 6: them at this point, and this Heat team. I think 515 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 6: they'll come in pretty healthy. Gorren Draga tricks better, and 516 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 6: Jimmy's going to be motivating that matchup against TJ. 517 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 3: Warren. 518 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 6: I don't think this TJ Warren like aberration where he 519 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 6: looks like Kevin Durant is going to last unfortunately in 520 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 6: the seven game series against the likes of Jimmy Butler, 521 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 6: ban Adebayo doll A really solid Heat defensive team, and 522 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 6: I trust the Heat's depth a little bit more too. 523 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 3: I think Tayler heroes really emerged and been. 524 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 6: Really solid, had to step in as a starting point 525 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 6: guard a little bit when Kendrick Nunn was out of 526 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 6: the bubble. They got, you know, igre dollars, give him, 527 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 6: give him some good minutes. Oln Has, give him some 528 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 6: good minutes. So I like this the starters and the 529 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 6: bench more from this Heat team. So I'm with Preston, 530 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 6: I'm probably not going to bet the price. 531 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 5: All right, Let's do some rapid fire on some of 532 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 5: the remaining series to take us out here. We'll go 533 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,400 Speaker 5: back and forth all a hass Preston one and then 534 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 5: Justin one and we'll go back and forth. So Preston, 535 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 5: rapid fire, Am I right? That that will be getting 536 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 5: good value if I bet Lakers in four. 537 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 3: Against two either one. 538 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 2: By the way, the fandal opener right now, game one 539 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 2: of this play in minus seven is bad. If anyone's 540 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 2: listening to this, you can still get plus seven on 541 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: the Memphis take that. I will definitely have a ton 542 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 2: of interest in Portland, like plus two and a half 543 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 2: series games. I think they can definitely win two games. Okay, 544 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 2: the Lakers, like everyone knows, their offense is the worst 545 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 2: in the Bubble. Their net efficiency was second worst twenty 546 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,679 Speaker 2: one of twenty two teams. I think we even mentioned 547 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,399 Speaker 2: this when we did some some stuff together last week. 548 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 2: It's so annoying and as a Lakers fan to say, 549 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 2: no every Bradley, no Rajon Rondo because those names shouldn't matter. 550 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 2: But you're gonna put Kcps their their best defender at 551 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 2: point guard now or Quinn Cooker. It's probably Alex Caruso, 552 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 2: Like these guys are going to defend Dame Lillard and 553 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 2: CJ mccolmy. 554 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 3: It's just it's gonna be hard to do. Now. 555 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 2: On the flip side, you have Lebron going up against 556 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 2: mellow Arizonia Gary Trent Junior. 557 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 3: He should eat in that regard, But. 558 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 2: If there's a team also they can kind of handle 559 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 2: Anthony Davis to some extent with Nurkic Whiteside, it's probably Portland. 560 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 2: I think the matchups there, Dame's going to probably win 561 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 2: at least one game by himself. Can they get one more? 562 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 2: I think it's possible. I think my true line for 563 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 2: this series is like Lakers minus three seventy eight. I 564 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 2: think it was seventy nine percent that they win it. 565 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 2: So I think the serious price will probably be somewhere. 566 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 3: In that range. 567 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 2: But I I'm hoping for some reason that it comes 568 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 2: out short that people play this narrative that Portland's going 569 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 2: to be tired because of this run, the stretch they 570 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 2: look to not you know, they look tyed to on 571 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 2: that second half against the Brooklyn Nets, the play in games. 572 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 2: I hope we get a chief price on Portland, so 573 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 2: I want to back them. It's definitely not going to 574 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 2: be four games, so I definitely done against that. 575 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 4: Justin, are the Clippers right now in their first round 576 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 4: series versus the Mavericks overvalued, undervalued or properly valued? 577 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 3: Properly valued the MAVs. I don't like this matchupater. 578 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 6: I would have much preferred them to play the Lakers 579 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 6: if I was them, and I don't. 580 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 3: Think they match up well in this one at all. 581 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 6: And the Clippers should be getting all their guys back 582 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 6: in time for this series. Bench Bomb Mantrez, Harrold should 583 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 6: be back, Patrick Beverly should be back. I'm probably gonna 584 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 6: continue to look at the Clippers in this one. Going 585 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 6: back to Preston's thing real quick, I am actually on 586 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 6: the other side of that. I would like the Lakers. 587 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 6: We've been talking all this restart about how bad the 588 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 6: Lakers offense is. You know what the cure for that 589 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 6: Lakers offense is is Blazer's defense. 590 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 3: And this Blazer's. 591 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 6: Defense that got cut today by the nets that Gary 592 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 6: Trent Junior and my boy was repeatedly getting rinsed by 593 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 6: Kris LeVert. They couldn't stop anybody. And Lebron and av 594 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 6: Are they can both average thirty. 595 00:24:59,600 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 3: In this year. 596 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 6: It's like pretty easily. Just I think the Lakers give 597 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 6: up one game just because of Dame. He might go, 598 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 6: you know, fifty sixty one game and just steal one. 599 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 6: But I think this Lakers offense turns the corner and 600 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,919 Speaker 6: this and this Blazer's defense is the reason why they 601 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 6: gotta make threes. 602 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 4: Dam had forty two tonight, but he was quiet in 603 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 4: the first half. 604 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 5: The Nets basically ran out of energy to contest him, 605 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 5: and they weren't as dialed in on guarding him all 606 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 5: you like, you have to guard him forty five feet plus, 607 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 5: like you have to pick him up a half court 608 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 5: the way you do stuff now. But if you put 609 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 5: two on ball, you really can negate a lot of 610 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 5: what he does. 611 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 4: If you make it into we're gonna make c Jim. 612 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 5: McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, and Gary Trent viat Us. That can 613 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 5: work versus the Nets, It can work versus the Spurs, 614 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 5: it can work versus. 615 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 4: It'll work versus the Grizzlies. But I don't think it's 616 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 4: gonna work versus the Lakers. 617 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 5: So I'm gonna be looking for I'm gonna be looking 618 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 5: closely exactly what the numbers come down for Lakers and 619 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 5: four and Lakers in five and see where. 620 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 4: The value is on that. 621 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 5: Preston, we talked about this a little bit before we 622 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 5: came on. You think the Ben Simmons injury takes out 623 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 5: all the value from the Sixers despite all their potential, 624 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 5: and despite the fact that the Celtics are throwing Tice, 625 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 5: Grant Williams, Robert Williams and time La Rowe Williams, Andy 626 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 5: and Hiss Canner on MB, you still think that the 627 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 5: value remains on Boston. 628 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm just jumping ship because I've 629 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 2: been on a record all year long saying I loved 630 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 2: Philadelphia's prospects at the prices the future is being offered 631 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: of winning the East twenty at all, And now I 632 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,719 Speaker 2: just they were so pitiful defensively in the restart. Then 633 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 2: Ben Simmons gets hurt, he's going to be out and 634 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 2: beat even got banged up, missed a few games. 635 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm. 636 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 2: Just chicken me out now, but Boston they look just 637 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 2: as good as anybody in the entire bubble. I think 638 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 2: they had the number one that efficiency at least going 639 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 2: into the last game or yesterday's games. And when you 640 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,360 Speaker 2: look at just mean they have the best point differential 641 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 2: outside of the Bucks in the East. They say the 642 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: best point differential in the West too, higher than Clippers 643 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 2: and Lakers. They've played a softer schedule than those teams. 644 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 3: Their team. 645 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 2: I just kind of overlooked, and their one weakness, the 646 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 2: glaring weakness, is absolutely the fact that they don't have 647 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 2: rim protection. They don't have a big guys like Giannis 648 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 2: and Embiid. I think they're a great matchup for Toronto actually, 649 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 2: but they wouldn't play Toronto till the next round. So 650 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: can the Sixers? Can Embid hang around? 651 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 3: Yes? 652 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 2: I think the Celtics deserve to probably be in that 653 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: minus three hundreds range that early opener we saw earlier 654 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 2: today as far as the series is concidered, their minus 655 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 2: four currently in this first game, who's the guy outside 656 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,960 Speaker 2: of Mbid that steps up. They paid Tobias Harris that 657 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,280 Speaker 2: he's going to be the guy. They paid Al Horford 658 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 2: kind of like he could be a second or third guy, 659 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 2: and now he doesn't even work on the same floor 660 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 2: as as Embiid, So it's. 661 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:31,200 Speaker 3: Just a mess. 662 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 2: I'm kind of off the Sixers chances with Ben Simmons. 663 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 3: It could have maybe worked. 664 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 2: Their offense was a lot better when it was Milton 665 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 2: Ben Simmons at the four, Horford off the bench. Their 666 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,640 Speaker 2: O rating was like one to eighteen. Then Simmons gets injured. Defensively, 667 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 2: they've been bad. I just can't buy it. I think 668 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: Celtics and Brad Stevens get. 669 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 5: The justin what is an unreasonable amount for me to 670 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 5: put on the nets in Game one versus the Raptors. 671 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 3: I don't think that'll hold true. 672 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 6: I'm I think this is a sweet Honestly, this Raptors team. 673 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 4: He too, you have been and ship on me? Come 674 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 4: on one in seven. 675 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 2: Even the Raptors team that won in all last year 676 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,439 Speaker 2: lost the first game in Orlando, didn't they. 677 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 4: The best team in Raptors history lost Game one to Orlando. 678 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 6: Look, I don't think anybody has taken this Nets team 679 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 6: like super lightly. We saw what they did today is 680 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 6: pushing and you know this Portland team to the brink. 681 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 6: Karris Vert five games in the bubble. I know Karrislvert, 682 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 6: he had a good shot. If he didn't if he 683 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 6: just tried to drive it and pull from the mid 684 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 6: range like he had success all game instead of pulling that, 685 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 6: I think he would have would have had a better 686 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 6: shot at it. But this Toronto team like defense at 687 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 6: least dominant, I mean the second best defense. 688 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 3: Their net rating is one oh six. 689 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 6: Toronto has been at one on one eight like their 690 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 6: first by far by huge margin. They got length on 691 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 6: length on length, they can switch everything. They'll let they'll 692 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 6: let you shoot threes, but they'll be selective and letting 693 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 6: who you know who they want shoot threes and they 694 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 6: close super quick. 695 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 3: It's just it's crazy to watch this defense. 696 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 6: They're going to be playing like a seven eight man rotation, 697 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 6: big minutes for all their main guys, you know. And yeah, 698 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 6: I don't think this this NET team has enough to 699 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 6: just kind of sneak up on them and steal a game. 700 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 3: What price would you pay for sweep? I think you might. 701 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 2: I think true line where I have it right now 702 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 2: is like minus one fifty five one fifty six range. 703 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 3: So would you lay minus one fifties raptor sweep for 704 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 3: I think so? 705 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 2: Okay, so you think maybe up to like minus two hundred, 706 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 2: then you'd probably pass but anything because they're going to 707 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 2: be a favorite to sweep. But I don't think it 708 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 2: should be too big of a favorite. 709 00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, I would probably cut it off of like one 710 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 6: to eighty one seventy five. 711 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 3: I'll probably look to buy anything lower than that. 712 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 5: As these series evolve, And so if you see a 713 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 5: team that's favored and that you really liked or that 714 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 5: was gonna present another tough matchup for a team you 715 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 5: didn't like, et cetera, and they go down three to 716 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 5: one or three to two in a series. If something 717 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 5: surprising occurs, do you guys look to get ahead of 718 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 5: the futures market by betting then or do you wait 719 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 5: until the actual series are done so you don't jump 720 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 5: too early? 721 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 3: How do you evaluate when? 722 00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 4: Do it just for a series or do you at 723 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,719 Speaker 4: all get on future once the playoffs? For our emotion, 724 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 4: one of. 725 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 6: My biggest bets ever was Warriors Rockets a couple of 726 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 6: years ago when Chris Paul pulled his handy, I like 727 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 6: unloaded on the Warriors to win that series. I think 728 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 6: they were like slightly plus money because they were down. 729 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 3: I think it was three two, Yeah, three two, I 730 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 3: think yeah. Me and Pete both got like heavy. 731 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 6: So I think there's definitely opportunities when there's when there's 732 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 6: injuries and in this bubble, there might be situations that 733 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 6: come up where guys have to unexpectedly miss a game 734 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 6: or two. So that's something that I'm going to keep 735 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 6: an eye on and be very aggressive to pursue and 736 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 6: to jump on when when those opportunities present itself. 737 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 2: I think that's why, not to just be thissed down again, 738 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,479 Speaker 2: but kind of jumping on the fact that Russell Westbrook 739 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 2: is going to miss at least two games it seems like, 740 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 2: and the Thunder three to one to win this series 741 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 2: and potentially you could get like plus two and a 742 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 2: half games or something around even money. That just is 743 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 2: crazy to me. So I think that's kind of the 744 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 2: first one to jump on that maybe really hasn't set 745 00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 2: in in this early market is the fact that Rusters 746 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 2: isn't going to be playing in Okay. See he can 747 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 2: defend the Rockets and Harden to some extent. But yeah, absolutely, 748 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 2: there's definitely futures to be had. I mean, even the 749 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:07,240 Speaker 2: Raptors down. 750 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 3: To o to the Bucks. I didn't bet it. I 751 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 3: wish I had. 752 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 2: They were twenty five to one, so to win it 753 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 2: all when they were down two, oh, Like, that's just 754 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 2: another example of a twenty five to one that cash 755 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 2: you know, six games later or six wins later. Excuse me, 756 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 2: eight wins. I can't add four plus four. So yeah, 757 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,959 Speaker 2: there's definitely gonna be opportunities there, and then the bubble 758 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 2: kind of addition, whatever could happen, it'll be very interesting 759 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 2: how the markets adjust, but usually, like if it's going 760 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 2: to your exact question, if it's like a team's up 761 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 2: three to one or three to two, the futures market 762 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 2: will definitely kind of just assume they're going to win 763 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 2: the series. So I would rarely rush to, like bet 764 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 2: that team. It's not going to drop much more if 765 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 2: they do finish the series off. What I would do 766 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 2: at that point is if you like the team that's 767 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 2: down one three or two three for whatever reason, like 768 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 2: the Raptors down two to the Bucks, those teams are 769 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 2: going to be just far the other way because no 770 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 2: one's betting the team that's about to get eliminated. So 771 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:57,959 Speaker 2: in those cases, I think you can find value on 772 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 2: those teams that are down potentially to win the series 773 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: outright or go further. 774 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 4: Okay, so I'm just gonna go ahead and bet Thunder 775 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 4: plus three thousand to win the Western Conference. Okay, got 776 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 4: it all right. Now'll wrap it up for the Action 777 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 4: Network podcast. Thanks for joining us, My thanks Depressing and 778 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 4: Justin for their brilliant insights. Make sure to download our app. 779 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 5: It's got the up to date odds lines, our picks 780 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 5: analysis on each game each series doing lots of content, 781 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 5: great stuff from Justin Fan, awesome stuff all throughout. To 782 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 5: make sure to rate, review, and subscribe. We really appreciate that, 783 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 5: and we'll talk to you. 784 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 4: Guys again next time on the Action Network podcast. 785 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 3: We're finished talking