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Slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:47.479 Welcome in episode sixty seven of What Try Nick Wright 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:51.440 in the podcast and a special edition because it is 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.760 our first official gambling show. We did a gambling show already. 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.160 I understand we did this season stuff, but this is 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.800 the one where we're going to be keeping score all year. 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:03.880 We're gonna have weekly standings. Here's how it's gonna work. 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:05.720 Let me just tell you guys a little bit about 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:09.800 about my process, the process that has led me to 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:14.039 in the last three years not only have two winning seasons, 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:19.440 one season where documented sixty one and a half percent 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.440 against the spread about as good as you're gonna find 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:27.280 anywhere in the country. One year where I was fifty 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.800 six and a half percent against the spread. That's profitable, 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:31.560 and one year where I lost my ass. But it 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:35.600 doesn't matter. Process is this. You look at the whole 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:40.120 slate of games and we put them all into four buckets. 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:45.039 One bucket it's perfectly priced. What does that mean? Means 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:46.440 I look at the line and say, they got that 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:49.320 exactly right? So why would I bet that one? It 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:53.600 means just coin flip means the market got it. One bucket, 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:57.320 the stay away bucket. What is a stay away bucket? 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:01.200 That's the weather could be a fact that you know 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.800 what I mean is too much of a factor. They're 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:08.480 starting an unknown player at a key position, and there's 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:12.160 too much A coach just got fired. There's something that 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.640 makes me say, ah, don't want to put my money 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:20.959 on that. Another bucket, the be careful bucket. Okay, that's 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:24.400 the Oh my goodness, this line looks too good to 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:27.959 be true. That's the you see the tweet. Eighty two 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.440 percent of bets have been on this side. Be careful America. 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:35.840 There's no free money. And once you've you know, separated 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.560 the week from the chaff, as they say, I think 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.240 that's what they say. What you're left off with is 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:45.040 the games you want to pick. And I forced myself 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.320 sometimes there's not five games I love. I'm gonna be honest. 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.480 This week only love four. But each week we're gonna 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.360 do five. We're gonna do five games we're gonna give 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.799 you we're gonna keep. And oh also should be known, 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.600 we get our line. We're gonna record these so higher 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.359 degree of difficulty. We're gonna record these Thursday mornings. It's 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.639 gonna come out Friday. We are going to take the 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.680 Fox Bet lines and we are going to freeze them 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:18.280 Wednesday evening when the Super Contest lines freeze. We're gonna 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.519 do that all year, and those lines we're gonna be 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.320 working from now. There's gonna be a point in the 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:26.000 season where we get screwed on a game where a 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:29.520 quarterback's a late scratch, and we're just gonna have to 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:31.840 eat it, because there also might be a point in 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.240 the season where a quarterback of the team we picked 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.640 against is a late scratch. It's gonna be late. So 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:40.120 the best way to bet games is to do it 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:46.280 Sunday morning, right before kick or Monday night right when 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.200 the lines drop before the lines change. If you think 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:51.880 you have some good info, we're gonna crush this. So 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.920 that's how it's gonna work. Those are and by the way, 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:57.839 what we're gonna do for this show, and there won't 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.400 be such a preamble in the show's coming forward. In 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.200 our first segment of the show, we're gonna tell you 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.120 the games were picking, the five games were actually betting, 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.320 and I'm gonna put real money on these games. The 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:14.480 games I tell you that I'm gonna bet. I'm not 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:16.200 gonna tell you guys do it and not do it myself. 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:18.240 But we're not gonna tell you which side we're betting 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:20.640 until the second segment. And then in that first segment, 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:23.080 we're gonna go through all the other eleven games of 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.880 the weekend and why we're staying away from them, why 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:30.040 we're not betting them. So, without further ado, here are 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:33.200 the five games that we will be picking, and we'll 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:34.599 tell you which side we're picking. 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:35.080 Shortly. 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:38.800 The five games that we are picking is Buffalo at 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:43.440 the Rams, Cleveland at Carolina, Jacksonville at Washington, Baltimore, and 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:46.520 the Jets New England at Miami. That's why gambling is 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:48.960 so great. These are some of the worst games on 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:54.880 the schedule. Jacksonville at Washington, Cleveland at Carolina, Baltimore the Jets. Oh, 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.680 but we're betting them. Okay, So those are the games 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.919 we're picking. All right, demon's eight. Let's start with the 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.720 be careful category. What's our first game? And the be 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:06.160 carefater starting. No, let's start with the stay away category. 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.160 What's our first game? In the stay away bucket? 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:11.240 First game is Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Bengals are favored by 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:11.880 six and a half. 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:14.479 All right, here's why we're staying away from this one. 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.360 Neither side of this bet do I feel good about? 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:28.120 Do I really want to bet on Mitch Trubisky at 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:30.640 any point in my life, much less Week one of 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.240 an NFL season? Of course I don't. But do I 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:39.840 want to lay nearly a full touchdown against Mike Tomlin 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:44.040 TJ Watt when the Bengals have the potential for a 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.360 Super Bowl hangover. I know they've upgraded the offensive line, 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:49.840 but it's still a point of weakness. If anything, I 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.760 would expect the Bengals to try to just escape with 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:56.800 a victory and not put Joe Burrow in harm's way 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.680 week one, So I just it's just a stay away. 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:07.400 It's I would lean lean Pittsburgh, but I also would 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:09.359 kind of want to tease them. It's a stay away. 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:12.080 I would want to tease the Bengals. I would lean Pittsburgh, 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.600 stay away, not betting it. What's the next one? 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:19.240 We got San Francisco at Chicago. Chicago's seven point underdogs. 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:23.880 Okay, this is a stay away because the two quarterbacks 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.520 are such unknowns. Now. I know Fields played some last 0:06:26.560 --> 0:06:28.680 year and Lance got a little bit of time last year. 0:06:29.080 --> 0:06:31.880 And I'm very high on San Francisco, right like you? 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.040 Yeah, I mean you bet the Niners to win the 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:35.680 Super Bowl, to get to the Super get to the 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:36.080 Super Bowl. 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:37.560 I don't think they can beat them by a Touchdow 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:40.839 I think they can, however. 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:45.719 Okay, is this one of those unknown factored type of things. 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:47.359 It's also. 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:54.120 Seven point home underdog. There are nine home underdogs in 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:58.160 Week one. You don't you don't in the NFL want 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:04.080 to bet all a road favorite unless you're immensely confident. 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:07.159 I'm very confident what San Francisco is going to be 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.200 at the end of the year. I am not that 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.160 confident what they're gonna be in Week one. They're going 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.760 to Chicago now the every and here's the other reason. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.640 To me, there's a bit of a stay away. I 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:22.880 feel like the whole world is gonna be on the 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.640 Niners in this game. I no one wants to put 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:30.040 money on the Bears. It's too many points to lay 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:32.760 as a road team in Trey Lance's you know, first 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:36.680 game as the true full time starter, and the Bears 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.520 are I need the Bears could be. I know in 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:41.120 my when I picked every game of the season, I 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:42.520 had the Bears winning a bunch of games. I have 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:47.080 since revised that the Bears, you know, some people in Chicago, 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:48.880 thin are gonna be worse team of football to stay away, 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:49.240 all right. 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.920 Next we got the Giants at Tennessee. The Titans are 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:53.280 favored by five and a half points. 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:57.720 Okay, this is a stay away to me because I 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:01.640 don't know if Ryan hannah Hill went full Jake dell 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:05.200 Ome and so by that I mean Jake Dellome had 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:07.320 a kind of similar career arc of Ryan Tannehill, like 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:09.000 is he a starter? Is he not a starter? Then 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:12.200 all of a sudden, Jake Dellome was in a super Bowl. 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:15.400 It's like, Wow, Jake Dellan finally in the right system, 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:19.320 Ryan Tannels in an AFC Championship game, and then Jake 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:22.920 Dellome in a playoff game. I want to look this 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:24.920 up because I want to be right on this, and 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.040 I should have looked it up beforehand. My apologies. So 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.200 hold on, Jake. I think Jake Delome had a four 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:35.960 interception playoff game and then after that was just a 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:39.319 shell of himself after that, like it basically ended his career. 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:40.040 He never got over. 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:41.120 Kay. 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.160 Let me see if I'm right. I could have just 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:47.440 made that up a five pick playoff game. Yep, that's right. 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:51.560 So two thousand and eight. See, God, sometimes guy just 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:53.640 tell you something. I know that nobody likes this. I 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.439 sound like such an asshole. I am really impressed by 0:08:57.440 --> 0:09:02.439 myself something. Yeah, as thirteen and a half years ago 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:07.880 a random Panthers Cardinals playoff game story, and I just 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:11.560 vaguely remembered that Jake dell Ome I was like, and 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:13.560 so now let me see if I'm right about what 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:15.240 it did to him the rest of his career. So 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.200 that was in the two thousand and eight season. Jake 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:22.080 dell home after that. So Jake Dellome in two thousand 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:25.600 and eight this team was twelve and four. He had 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.280 a eighty five passer rating. It was like a decent 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:33.360 quarterback right ends that year with a five pick game 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:37.559 the next season, the rest of his NFL career, by 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:43.800 the way, which only went another sixteen starts. The rest 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:51.760 of his career, he had eleven touchdowns, twenty five interceptions, 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.400 and a passer rating of sixty two. The playoff game 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:57.600 broke it. So why am I bringing this up? Ryan 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.679 Tannehill started last year's playoff game with a pick through 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.640 a pick in the red zone and then ended the 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.079 game with a pick. I am afraid that the Titans 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.520 because the Giants are gonna be terrible, But there is 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:12.360 a chance that the Titans that Tannehill's broken now, So 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:15.240 I'm not laying five and a half points with that unknown. 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:16.560 What's what's your question here? 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:17.920 I really have a question. 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:18.600 Oh okay. 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:20.199 I was more so trying. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.000 To fascinated by my beautiful mind, how it works. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.120 Yeah. Why are we talking about Jake Deloon though? 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:33.040 Okay, because I am worried that Ryan Tannehill is going 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:37.400 to follow the Jake dellom path of like the career 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.880 arcs have already been similar than a devastating playoff performance 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:44.000 that leads into the next season. That's why I can't 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.520 lay the five and a half points with Tennessee even 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:48.520 though they're at home against a bad Giants team. 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:54.720 Next Raiders at the Chargers. Chargers are favored by three 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:55.480 and a half points. 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:59.160 Yees is stay away I at three, I'd probably lay it. 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:04.120 Here's the other reason to stay away from me. I 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:07.280 the Chargers do not. This is I know it's in 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:10.600 Los Angeles for the Chargers, it's gonna be a Raider 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:14.960 home game. Chargers have no fans. Raiders have fans in LA, 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:19.240 and they'll travel. So I'm concerned about. 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.760 That perfect example of one of those little the little 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.320 you put it you you added a key to each subject. 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.280 I feel like that applied directly. 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:29.720 What do you mean like? I mean how you said that? 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:31.560 You said the Chargers don't have any fans. 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:33.319 The fans are gonna be. 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:36.840 The Raider close, right, even though it will they're close 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.080 in Vegas and the Raiders, who's play in LA, they 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.520 have a bigger fan base. They're the Chargers playing San Diego. 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:45.280 They don't have fan base in LA. And so why 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.679 are the Chargers favored by three and a half because 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.720 they're getting the three points for a home field, but 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.200 I don't think it's really worth three points against the Raiders. 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:55.439 Particularly however, I think the Chargers are awesome. So I'm 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.000 just staying away. So I'm staying away all right now 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.000 to the be careful group, And what you're gonna see 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:05.319 to be careful group is our fear of home underdogs, 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.960 our fear of betting road favorites. Will explain, go ahead, 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:09.559 what's first one? 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.160 New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta is five and a half 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:14.000 point underdogs. 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:19.080 Yeah, So here's why it's be careful, because here's a 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:22.840 here's a test. Try to find one person in the 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:26.320 in your friend group that's like, hey, I'm big on 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.360 the Falcons this week. You're not gonna find anyone betting 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:33.400 the fount Not a single person Marcus Mariota. Maybe the 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.280 worst team in the league that you're with New Orleans. 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:39.120 You're laying less than a touchdown. People like New Orleans 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.800 this year for reasons I don't totally understand. They are begging. 0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.280 They're setting in five and a half, not even at six. 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:48.000 They're begging you to bet New Orleans stay. I'm not betting. 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.760 I'm not laying five and a half points with Jameis 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:54.440 Winston on the road. And I'm also not putting betting 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.960 the Falcons getting less than a touchdown. They are daring 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.679 you to bet New Orleans. Be careful. 0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:04.160 Next Green Bay at Minnesota, Minnesota the point and a 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.520 half point a point and a half underdogs are all right again. 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:12.520 They are daring you to bet the Packers. You get 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.880 the Packers basically gonna pick them. Do you think the 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.600 Packers are better than the Vikings? Of course the Packers 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:19.760 win thirteen games every year with Matt Lafor's there. Yeah, 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.360 of course, the Backers are the best regular season quarterback 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.240 and the last two years. And we're laying less than 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:29.079 a less than a Fueld goal, less than two and 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:33.160 no one. They are daring you. Vegas is telling you this, 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:37.040 by the way, makes me think that Minnesota's gonna win 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:41.719 that game because they are. They're not, they are they are. 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:42.959 That's crazy. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:48.120 They are daring you to bet the Vikings. They are 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.680 begging you to bet the Packers. And again, if I 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.200 if someone was like Nick, you have to bet that game, 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.559 you know what I do? I bet the Packers in 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:58.280 less than a point and laying point and a half. 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.959 So that's why we That's why this category exists because 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.760 it's very hard when you're making your picks. You want 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.720 to go to what looks the best, but what looks 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:08.040 the best very often is a trap. 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:10.640 Right all right? Next, too good to be true? 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.600 Tampa Bay at Dallas Dallas two and a half point underdogs. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:19.600 Yeah, so this is another one. So the Bucks have 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:23.600 the second best Super Bowl ons playing a Cowboys team 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.480 that's totally banged up, and they're laying less than a 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.360 field goal. They are. This is a you have, like 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.920 the public, the America's team. People like betting the Cowboys, 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:39.160 but everyone loves Brady. I don't really like either of 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:41.880 these teams as much as everyone else. But I think 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:43.360 the fact that it's a two and a half and 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:48.320 not three means they're once again that Vegas wants you 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:52.560 to bet the road underdog the road favorite, and I 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.240 won't do it. And I'm gonna be honest. I don't 0:14:56.240 --> 0:14:59.200 have a great feel for this game. Okay, I think 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.160 both teams all if I was gonna bet anything in 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:04.280 this game is probably the under because both teams offensive 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.280 lines are banged up, and I think the total is 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:08.560 at like fifty one, so I probably bet the under, 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:10.560 but I don't like to bet totals. So we're staying 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:12.520 we're being careful on it, or we're not. We're not 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:16.960 falling for it, all right? Next, this next one is blaring, 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:22.880 flashing red lights of be careful. And I almost fell 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:24.880 for it a month ago when I said I was 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.240 gonna include this in a tease, and I'm not. Now, 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:28.320 what's the next one? 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:33.800 Denver at Seattle Seattle six and a half point underdogs. 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:34.840 And what's your question for me here? 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.080 Why not hammer rust in his comeback game against Seattle? 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:39.080 Yeah? 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:40.600 Are you scared of Geno Smith? 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:46.760 I'm not scared of Geno Smith. However, here's what's gonna 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:51.320 happen America. A lot of people are gonna lose their 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:56.160 ass Sunday, Week one of the NFL, and you know 0:15:56.240 --> 0:16:00.160 it's gonna be sitting out there for the taking on Monday. 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:06.920 Denver laying less than a touchdown going to Seattle. Scattle 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:09.720 is supposed to be terrible. Denver could win the Super 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.840 Bowl Russ with a chip on his shoulder. I'm laying less. 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:20.200 You are not going to find one person that bets 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:24.480 the Seahawks in that game, not one, and yet they're 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.400 not moving the line. All the money's coming in on Denver, 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.720 and and yet they're not moving it to seven. They're 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:33.960 not moving it to seven. 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:34.160 And a half. 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.560 It's almost like they want you to bet Denver. It's 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:39.640 almost like the wise guys in Vegas are saying, Okay, 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:47.360 Seattle Civic Northwest, long trip, week one, new coach, new quarterback, 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:50.240 you want to lay six and a half points. 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:51.280 Go ahead. 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.560 They are they are what they are. And here's the 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.640 other thing that's gonna happen. I'm not saying I'm picking 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.640 Seattle out right. I don't have the guts for it. 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:04.879 But so a teaser, demanse and for the listeners, is 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:09.679 when you can move the line. The most traditional teaser 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.880 is six points. There's six point, seven point, ten point, 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.840 because six points. You can move the line six points, 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.960 but you gotta do it with multiple games. So everyone, 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:26.880 everyone is going to have some combination of a Bengals, Chiefs, 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:32.639 Broncos teaser. So they are gonna move those lines six points. 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.000 So they're gonna take the Steelers from six and I'm sorry, 0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:37.600 the Bengals from six and a half point favorites two 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.119 point five point favorites, meaning they just gotta win, or 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:42.960 the Chiefs from six point favorites to zero point favorites, 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.760 so they just gotta win. And the last leg for 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:50.080 all the teasers across America, it's gonna be, Oh, I 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:51.480 just need Denver to win. 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.000 Sounds like a pretty lose. 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:56.719 Yeah, how can I lose? And then all of a 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:03.840 sudden halftime, it's gonna be thirteen to ten Denver, and 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.400 you're gonna be like, oh boy, could Seattle steal this game? 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:11.879 Be careful. I'm just telling you, America, be careful. Don't 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:14.080 don't lose your ass in Week one. Bet in the 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:16.120 games they want you to bet, all right. Last three, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:17.960 perfectly priced category. 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:22.000 Indianapolis at Houston. Houston's seven point underdogs. 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.879 Yeah, this is a perfectly priced exactly what's what it 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.280 sounds like? I think these lines are spot on. I 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:31.560 think Houston's not any good. The Colts are gonna be 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:36.560 very good, but it's in Houston. A touchdown is just right. 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:38.800 That's exactly where I would have set the line. I 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:43.040 expect the Colts to win twenty four to seventeen, so 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:44.119 there's no value in it. 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:45.080 Next all right. 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.720 Kansas City at Arizona. Arizona is six point underdogs. 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:52.960 Yeah, I think the Chiefs win by just around a touchdown. 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:57.840 I am a I'm a little afraid of the Chiefs. 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:02.560 Up by ten, Arizona gets the late garbage time touchdown 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:05.040 to cover the spread. Yeah, all of a sudden they 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:09.000 lose by three instead of vice ten. I think the 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:11.919 line is just right. I think the Chiefs with no 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.040 Tyreek kill the changes this offseason, and the Chiefs are 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.160 gonna be excellent. But I don't want to lay. 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:19.600 You know, you've been hating on Arizona for months now. 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:22.480 I have been hating on Arizona for months now, But 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:24.280 I think a lot of that's because I expect them 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:27.760 to fold at the end of the year. And there's 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.640 still a team that is a legitimate NFL team at 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.120 home and there you gotta beat them by more than 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:36.560 a touchdown or a touchdown. Plus, I think the line's 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.920 exactly right. It's just perfectly priced, all right. 0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:42.960 Next, right, Eagles at Detroit. Detroit are four point underdogs. 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:44.760 Yeah, I think that's exactly Again, I just think it's 0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:49.400 exactly right. I think that Philadelphia wins. I think Detroit 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:51.639 puts up a good fight, and I think it's a 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:54.680 you know, it's a one score game, so those are 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:58.200 perfectly priced lines. I think Vegas got those exactly right. 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:01.400 So that leaves us with the Rams Bills game, which 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:04.920 will have already happened by the time you guys see this. Jags, 0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:10.000 the Jags Washington I keep for running call Washington Washington 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:13.399 football team. Uh, the Carolina Cleveland game, the Baltimore New 0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:16.080 York Jets game, and the Miami New England game. Those 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.399 are the five games we're picking, and we tell you 0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:21.440 which side and why next. 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.560 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:33.959 inspiring true story about Anthony Roebliss, who defined every expectation 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.920 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:40.520 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg. 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:43.760 Evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:47.240 thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:20:47.280 --> 0:20:50.800 including Jirelle Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Pania, and 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:55.000 Bobby Canavalli. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:20:57.200 --> 0:20:59.080 All Right welcome back in What's Right with Nick great 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.560 Week one NFL gambling show. We just gave you our 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:06.240 logic on eleven of the sixteen games, what where we 0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:09.520 would lean where? You gotta be careful. All of that's 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:13.639 five games were betting. One of them happens tonight, which 0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:17.480 means it actually happened last night for you guys. That 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:24.600 is the Buffalo Bills visiting the Los Angeles Rams. And listen, 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:28.320 I'm risking starting off zero to one by even including 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:30.760 a Thursday night game and having it be By the way, 0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:33.600 I probably shouldn't be including this from a content perspective, 0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:36.920 because nobody can. Actually, this isn't actionable for the audience 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:39.600 because by the time they hear this or see this, 0:21:39.600 --> 0:21:42.280 this game will have already happened. However, I feel so 0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.720 confidently that this line is wrong that I have to 0:21:45.760 --> 0:21:48.879 include it. The Rams plus two and a half is 0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.600 the pick. Now here's the thing, and this is what 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:54.120 I'm going to have to try to communicate and explain 0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:59.320 to Demanse. This does not mean I don't think the 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:02.560 Bills can win. This doesn't mean that I don't think 0:22:02.600 --> 0:22:07.040 the Bills can cover. What this means purely is I 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:12.280