1
00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,800
Speaker 1: If your football team had one option in their playbook,

2
00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:05,800
Speaker 1: the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be

3
00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,440
Speaker 1: said for your investments. CIBO index options like SPX and

4
00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,960
Speaker 1: xsp can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement

5
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,840
Speaker 1: and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more

6
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,160
Speaker 1: dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com.

7
00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 1: Cebo life is better with options, Your investments.

8
00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:23,119
Speaker 2: Could be too.

9
00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,159
Speaker 1: There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the

10
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:40,680
Speaker 1: disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com. Slash us underscore disclaimers.

11
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:47,479
Speaker 3: Welcome in episode sixty seven of What Try Nick Wright

12
00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,440
Speaker 3: in the podcast and a special edition because it is

13
00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 3: our first official gambling show. We did a gambling show already.

14
00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 3: I understand we did this season stuff, but this is

15
00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 3: the one where we're going to be keeping score all year.

16
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 3: We're gonna have weekly standings. Here's how it's gonna work.

17
00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 3: Let me just tell you guys a little bit about

18
00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,800
Speaker 3: about my process, the process that has led me to

19
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,039
Speaker 3: in the last three years not only have two winning seasons,

20
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 3: one season where documented sixty one and a half percent

21
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,440
Speaker 3: against the spread about as good as you're gonna find

22
00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:27,280
Speaker 3: anywhere in the country. One year where I was fifty

23
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:29,800
Speaker 3: six and a half percent against the spread. That's profitable,

24
00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:31,560
Speaker 3: and one year where I lost my ass. But it

25
00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,600
Speaker 3: doesn't matter. Process is this. You look at the whole

26
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:40,120
Speaker 3: slate of games and we put them all into four buckets.

27
00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:45,039
Speaker 3: One bucket it's perfectly priced. What does that mean? Means

28
00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,440
Speaker 3: I look at the line and say, they got that

29
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 3: exactly right? So why would I bet that one? It

30
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 3: means just coin flip means the market got it. One bucket,

31
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 3: the stay away bucket. What is a stay away bucket?

32
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,200
Speaker 3: That's the weather could be a fact that you know

33
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,800
Speaker 3: what I mean is too much of a factor. They're

34
00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 3: starting an unknown player at a key position, and there's

35
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 3: too much A coach just got fired. There's something that

36
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,640
Speaker 3: makes me say, ah, don't want to put my money

37
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:20,959
Speaker 3: on that. Another bucket, the be careful bucket. Okay, that's

38
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,400
Speaker 3: the Oh my goodness, this line looks too good to

39
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,959
Speaker 3: be true. That's the you see the tweet. Eighty two

40
00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,440
Speaker 3: percent of bets have been on this side. Be careful America.

41
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,840
Speaker 3: There's no free money. And once you've you know, separated

42
00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,560
Speaker 3: the week from the chaff, as they say, I think

43
00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,240
Speaker 3: that's what they say. What you're left off with is

44
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 3: the games you want to pick. And I forced myself

45
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,320
Speaker 3: sometimes there's not five games I love. I'm gonna be honest.

46
00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,480
Speaker 3: This week only love four. But each week we're gonna

47
00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,360
Speaker 3: do five. We're gonna do five games we're gonna give

48
00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,799
Speaker 3: you we're gonna keep. And oh also should be known,

49
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,600
Speaker 3: we get our line. We're gonna record these so higher

50
00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,359
Speaker 3: degree of difficulty. We're gonna record these Thursday mornings. It's

51
00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:09,639
Speaker 3: gonna come out Friday. We are going to take the

52
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 3: Fox Bet lines and we are going to freeze them

53
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:18,280
Speaker 3: Wednesday evening when the Super Contest lines freeze. We're gonna

54
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,519
Speaker 3: do that all year, and those lines we're gonna be

55
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,320
Speaker 3: working from now. There's gonna be a point in the

56
00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,000
Speaker 3: season where we get screwed on a game where a

57
00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 3: quarterback's a late scratch, and we're just gonna have to

58
00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 3: eat it, because there also might be a point in

59
00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,240
Speaker 3: the season where a quarterback of the team we picked

60
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,640
Speaker 3: against is a late scratch. It's gonna be late. So

61
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,120
Speaker 3: the best way to bet games is to do it

62
00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:46,280
Speaker 3: Sunday morning, right before kick or Monday night right when

63
00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,200
Speaker 3: the lines drop before the lines change. If you think

64
00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 3: you have some good info, we're gonna crush this. So

65
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,920
Speaker 3: that's how it's gonna work. Those are and by the way,

66
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,839
Speaker 3: what we're gonna do for this show, and there won't

67
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,400
Speaker 3: be such a preamble in the show's coming forward. In

68
00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 3: our first segment of the show, we're gonna tell you

69
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,120
Speaker 3: the games were picking, the five games were actually betting,

70
00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,320
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna put real money on these games. The

71
00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,480
Speaker 3: games I tell you that I'm gonna bet. I'm not

72
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 3: gonna tell you guys do it and not do it myself.

73
00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,240
Speaker 3: But we're not gonna tell you which side we're betting

74
00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 3: until the second segment. And then in that first segment,

75
00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,080
Speaker 3: we're gonna go through all the other eleven games of

76
00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,880
Speaker 3: the weekend and why we're staying away from them, why

77
00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,040
Speaker 3: we're not betting them. So, without further ado, here are

78
00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,200
Speaker 3: the five games that we will be picking, and we'll

79
00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:34,599
Speaker 3: tell you which side we're picking.

80
00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:35,080
Speaker 2: Shortly.

81
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 3: The five games that we are picking is Buffalo at

82
00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 3: the Rams, Cleveland at Carolina, Jacksonville at Washington, Baltimore, and

83
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 3: the Jets New England at Miami. That's why gambling is

84
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 3: so great. These are some of the worst games on

85
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:54,880
Speaker 3: the schedule. Jacksonville at Washington, Cleveland at Carolina, Baltimore the Jets. Oh,

86
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 3: but we're betting them. Okay, So those are the games

87
00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,919
Speaker 3: we're picking. All right, demon's eight. Let's start with the

88
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,720
Speaker 3: be careful category. What's our first game? And the be

89
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,160
Speaker 3: carefater starting. No, let's start with the stay away category.

90
00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,160
Speaker 3: What's our first game? In the stay away bucket?

91
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,240
Speaker 4: First game is Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Bengals are favored by

92
00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 4: six and a half.

93
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,479
Speaker 3: All right, here's why we're staying away from this one.

94
00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,360
Speaker 3: Neither side of this bet do I feel good about?

95
00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 3: Do I really want to bet on Mitch Trubisky at

96
00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,640
Speaker 3: any point in my life, much less Week one of

97
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,240
Speaker 3: an NFL season? Of course I don't. But do I

98
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:39,840
Speaker 3: want to lay nearly a full touchdown against Mike Tomlin

99
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 3: TJ Watt when the Bengals have the potential for a

100
00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,360
Speaker 3: Super Bowl hangover. I know they've upgraded the offensive line,

101
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 3: but it's still a point of weakness. If anything, I

102
00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,760
Speaker 3: would expect the Bengals to try to just escape with

103
00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,800
Speaker 3: a victory and not put Joe Burrow in harm's way

104
00:05:56,880 --> 00:06:00,680
Speaker 3: week one, So I just it's just a stay away.

105
00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 3: It's I would lean lean Pittsburgh, but I also would

106
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,359
Speaker 3: kind of want to tease them. It's a stay away.

107
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 3: I would want to tease the Bengals. I would lean Pittsburgh,

108
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,600
Speaker 3: stay away, not betting it. What's the next one?

109
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 4: We got San Francisco at Chicago. Chicago's seven point underdogs.

110
00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 3: Okay, this is a stay away because the two quarterbacks

111
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,520
Speaker 3: are such unknowns. Now. I know Fields played some last

112
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,680
Speaker 3: year and Lance got a little bit of time last year.

113
00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,880
Speaker 3: And I'm very high on San Francisco, right like you?

114
00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you bet the Niners to win the

115
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:35,680
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, to get to the Super get to the

116
00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 4: Super Bowl.

117
00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:37,560
Speaker 3: I don't think they can beat them by a Touchdow

118
00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:40,839
Speaker 3: I think they can, however.

119
00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,719
Speaker 4: Okay, is this one of those unknown factored type of things.

120
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:47,359
Speaker 2: It's also.

121
00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:54,120
Speaker 3: Seven point home underdog. There are nine home underdogs in

122
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,160
Speaker 3: Week one. You don't you don't in the NFL want

123
00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:04,080
Speaker 3: to bet all a road favorite unless you're immensely confident.

124
00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,159
Speaker 3: I'm very confident what San Francisco is going to be

125
00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,200
Speaker 3: at the end of the year. I am not that

126
00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 3: confident what they're gonna be in Week one. They're going

127
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,760
Speaker 3: to Chicago now the every and here's the other reason.

128
00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,640
Speaker 3: To me, there's a bit of a stay away. I

129
00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,880
Speaker 3: feel like the whole world is gonna be on the

130
00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 3: Niners in this game. I no one wants to put

131
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 3: money on the Bears. It's too many points to lay

132
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,760
Speaker 3: as a road team in Trey Lance's you know, first

133
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 3: game as the true full time starter, and the Bears

134
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 3: are I need the Bears could be. I know in

135
00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,120
Speaker 3: my when I picked every game of the season, I

136
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 3: had the Bears winning a bunch of games. I have

137
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:47,080
Speaker 3: since revised that the Bears, you know, some people in Chicago,

138
00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:48,880
Speaker 3: thin are gonna be worse team of football to stay away,

139
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:49,240
Speaker 3: all right.

140
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,920
Speaker 4: Next we got the Giants at Tennessee. The Titans are

141
00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:53,280
Speaker 4: favored by five and a half points.

142
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,720
Speaker 3: Okay, this is a stay away to me because I

143
00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,640
Speaker 3: don't know if Ryan hannah Hill went full Jake dell

144
00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:05,200
Speaker 3: Ome and so by that I mean Jake Dellome had

145
00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,320
Speaker 3: a kind of similar career arc of Ryan Tannehill, like

146
00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,000
Speaker 3: is he a starter? Is he not a starter? Then

147
00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, Jake Dellome was in a super Bowl.

148
00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,400
Speaker 3: It's like, Wow, Jake Dellan finally in the right system,

149
00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,320
Speaker 3: Ryan Tannels in an AFC Championship game, and then Jake

150
00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,920
Speaker 3: Dellome in a playoff game. I want to look this

151
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 3: up because I want to be right on this, and

152
00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,040
Speaker 3: I should have looked it up beforehand. My apologies. So

153
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,200
Speaker 3: hold on, Jake. I think Jake Delome had a four

154
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 3: interception playoff game and then after that was just a

155
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,319
Speaker 3: shell of himself after that, like it basically ended his career.

156
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:40,040
Speaker 3: He never got over.

157
00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 2: Kay.

158
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,160
Speaker 3: Let me see if I'm right. I could have just

159
00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,440
Speaker 3: made that up a five pick playoff game. Yep, that's right.

160
00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,560
Speaker 3: So two thousand and eight. See, God, sometimes guy just

161
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,640
Speaker 3: tell you something. I know that nobody likes this. I

162
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,439
Speaker 3: sound like such an asshole. I am really impressed by

163
00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:02,439
Speaker 3: myself something. Yeah, as thirteen and a half years ago

164
00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:07,880
Speaker 3: a random Panthers Cardinals playoff game story, and I just

165
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:11,560
Speaker 3: vaguely remembered that Jake dell Ome I was like, and

166
00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,560
Speaker 3: so now let me see if I'm right about what

167
00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,240
Speaker 3: it did to him the rest of his career. So

168
00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 3: that was in the two thousand and eight season. Jake

169
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:22,080
Speaker 3: dell home after that. So Jake Dellome in two thousand

170
00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,600
Speaker 3: and eight this team was twelve and four. He had

171
00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:29,280
Speaker 3: a eighty five passer rating. It was like a decent

172
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 3: quarterback right ends that year with a five pick game

173
00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,559
Speaker 3: the next season, the rest of his NFL career, by

174
00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:43,800
Speaker 3: the way, which only went another sixteen starts. The rest

175
00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 3: of his career, he had eleven touchdowns, twenty five interceptions,

176
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 3: and a passer rating of sixty two. The playoff game

177
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,600
Speaker 3: broke it. So why am I bringing this up? Ryan

178
00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,679
Speaker 3: Tannehill started last year's playoff game with a pick through

179
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,640
Speaker 3: a pick in the red zone and then ended the

180
00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,079
Speaker 3: game with a pick. I am afraid that the Titans

181
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 3: because the Giants are gonna be terrible, But there is

182
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,360
Speaker 3: a chance that the Titans that Tannehill's broken now, So

183
00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,240
Speaker 3: I'm not laying five and a half points with that unknown.

184
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:16,560
Speaker 3: What's what's your question here?

185
00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:17,920
Speaker 2: I really have a question.

186
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:18,600
Speaker 3: Oh okay.

187
00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:20,199
Speaker 2: I was more so trying.

188
00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,000
Speaker 3: To fascinated by my beautiful mind, how it works.

189
00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. Why are we talking about Jake Deloon though?

190
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 3: Okay, because I am worried that Ryan Tannehill is going

191
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:37,400
Speaker 3: to follow the Jake dellom path of like the career

192
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,880
Speaker 3: arcs have already been similar than a devastating playoff performance

193
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,000
Speaker 3: that leads into the next season. That's why I can't

194
00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 3: lay the five and a half points with Tennessee even

195
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,520
Speaker 3: though they're at home against a bad Giants team.

196
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:54,720
Speaker 4: Next Raiders at the Chargers. Chargers are favored by three

197
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:55,480
Speaker 4: and a half points.

198
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,160
Speaker 3: Yees is stay away I at three, I'd probably lay it.

199
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:04,120
Speaker 3: Here's the other reason to stay away from me. I

200
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,280
Speaker 3: the Chargers do not. This is I know it's in

201
00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,600
Speaker 3: Los Angeles for the Chargers, it's gonna be a Raider

202
00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:14,960
Speaker 3: home game. Chargers have no fans. Raiders have fans in LA,

203
00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:19,240
Speaker 3: and they'll travel. So I'm concerned about.

204
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,760
Speaker 4: That perfect example of one of those little the little

205
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,320
Speaker 4: you put it you you added a key to each subject.

206
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,280
Speaker 2: I feel like that applied directly.

207
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:29,720
Speaker 4: What do you mean like? I mean how you said that?

208
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:31,560
Speaker 4: You said the Chargers don't have any fans.

209
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:33,319
Speaker 2: The fans are gonna be.

210
00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,840
Speaker 3: The Raider close, right, even though it will they're close

211
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,080
Speaker 3: in Vegas and the Raiders, who's play in LA, they

212
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 3: have a bigger fan base. They're the Chargers playing San Diego.

213
00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,280
Speaker 3: They don't have fan base in LA. And so why

214
00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,679
Speaker 3: are the Chargers favored by three and a half because

215
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:49,720
Speaker 3: they're getting the three points for a home field, but

216
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,200
Speaker 3: I don't think it's really worth three points against the Raiders.

217
00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:55,439
Speaker 3: Particularly however, I think the Chargers are awesome. So I'm

218
00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,000
Speaker 3: just staying away. So I'm staying away all right now

219
00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,000
Speaker 3: to the be careful group, And what you're gonna see

220
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,319
Speaker 3: to be careful group is our fear of home underdogs,

221
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 3: our fear of betting road favorites. Will explain, go ahead,

222
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:09,559
Speaker 3: what's first one?

223
00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,160
Speaker 4: New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta is five and a half

224
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:14,000
Speaker 4: point underdogs.

225
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:19,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, So here's why it's be careful, because here's a

226
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,840
Speaker 3: here's a test. Try to find one person in the

227
00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,320
Speaker 3: in your friend group that's like, hey, I'm big on

228
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,360
Speaker 3: the Falcons this week. You're not gonna find anyone betting

229
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,400
Speaker 3: the fount Not a single person Marcus Mariota. Maybe the

230
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 3: worst team in the league that you're with New Orleans.

231
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,120
Speaker 3: You're laying less than a touchdown. People like New Orleans

232
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,800
Speaker 3: this year for reasons I don't totally understand. They are begging.

233
00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,280
Speaker 3: They're setting in five and a half, not even at six.

234
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,000
Speaker 3: They're begging you to bet New Orleans stay. I'm not betting.

235
00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 3: I'm not laying five and a half points with Jameis

236
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,440
Speaker 3: Winston on the road. And I'm also not putting betting

237
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,960
Speaker 3: the Falcons getting less than a touchdown. They are daring

238
00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,679
Speaker 3: you to bet New Orleans. Be careful.

239
00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,160
Speaker 4: Next Green Bay at Minnesota, Minnesota the point and a

240
00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,520
Speaker 4: half point a point and a half underdogs are all right again.

241
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,520
Speaker 3: They are daring you to bet the Packers. You get

242
00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 3: the Packers basically gonna pick them. Do you think the

243
00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,600
Speaker 3: Packers are better than the Vikings? Of course the Packers

244
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,760
Speaker 3: win thirteen games every year with Matt Lafor's there. Yeah,

245
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,360
Speaker 3: of course, the Backers are the best regular season quarterback

246
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:25,240
Speaker 3: and the last two years. And we're laying less than

247
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:29,079
Speaker 3: a less than a Fueld goal, less than two and

248
00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:33,160
Speaker 3: no one. They are daring you. Vegas is telling you this,

249
00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:37,040
Speaker 3: by the way, makes me think that Minnesota's gonna win

250
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,719
Speaker 3: that game because they are. They're not, they are they are.

251
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:42,959
Speaker 2: That's crazy.

252
00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:48,120
Speaker 3: They are daring you to bet the Vikings. They are

253
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,680
Speaker 3: begging you to bet the Packers. And again, if I

254
00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,200
Speaker 3: if someone was like Nick, you have to bet that game,

255
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,559
Speaker 3: you know what I do? I bet the Packers in

256
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,280
Speaker 3: less than a point and laying point and a half.

257
00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:01,959
Speaker 3: So that's why we That's why this category exists because

258
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,760
Speaker 3: it's very hard when you're making your picks. You want

259
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:06,720
Speaker 3: to go to what looks the best, but what looks

260
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:08,040
Speaker 3: the best very often is a trap.

261
00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 2: Right all right? Next, too good to be true?

262
00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,600
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay at Dallas Dallas two and a half point underdogs.

263
00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is another one. So the Bucks have

264
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 3: the second best Super Bowl ons playing a Cowboys team

265
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,480
Speaker 3: that's totally banged up, and they're laying less than a

266
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,360
Speaker 3: field goal. They are. This is a you have, like

267
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,920
Speaker 3: the public, the America's team. People like betting the Cowboys,

268
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:39,160
Speaker 3: but everyone loves Brady. I don't really like either of

269
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 3: these teams as much as everyone else. But I think

270
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 3: the fact that it's a two and a half and

271
00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 3: not three means they're once again that Vegas wants you

272
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,560
Speaker 3: to bet the road underdog the road favorite, and I

273
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,240
Speaker 3: won't do it. And I'm gonna be honest. I don't

274
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,200
Speaker 3: have a great feel for this game. Okay, I think

275
00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,160
Speaker 3: both teams all if I was gonna bet anything in

276
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,280
Speaker 3: this game is probably the under because both teams offensive

277
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 3: lines are banged up, and I think the total is

278
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,560
Speaker 3: at like fifty one, so I probably bet the under,

279
00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,560
Speaker 3: but I don't like to bet totals. So we're staying

280
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 3: we're being careful on it, or we're not. We're not

281
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:16,960
Speaker 3: falling for it, all right? Next, this next one is blaring,

282
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:22,880
Speaker 3: flashing red lights of be careful. And I almost fell

283
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 3: for it a month ago when I said I was

284
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,240
Speaker 3: gonna include this in a tease, and I'm not. Now,

285
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:28,320
Speaker 3: what's the next one?

286
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:33,800
Speaker 4: Denver at Seattle Seattle six and a half point underdogs.

287
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 3: And what's your question for me here?

288
00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 4: Why not hammer rust in his comeback game against Seattle?

289
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 3: Yeah?

290
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 2: Are you scared of Geno Smith?

291
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:46,760
Speaker 3: I'm not scared of Geno Smith. However, here's what's gonna

292
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 3: happen America. A lot of people are gonna lose their

293
00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 3: ass Sunday, Week one of the NFL, and you know

294
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,160
Speaker 3: it's gonna be sitting out there for the taking on Monday.

295
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:06,920
Speaker 3: Denver laying less than a touchdown going to Seattle. Scattle

296
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 3: is supposed to be terrible. Denver could win the Super

297
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 3: Bowl Russ with a chip on his shoulder. I'm laying less.

298
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 3: You are not going to find one person that bets

299
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 3: the Seahawks in that game, not one, and yet they're

300
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 3: not moving the line. All the money's coming in on Denver,

301
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 3: and and yet they're not moving it to seven. They're

302
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 3: not moving it to seven.

303
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 2: And a half.

304
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,560
Speaker 3: It's almost like they want you to bet Denver. It's

305
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 3: almost like the wise guys in Vegas are saying, Okay,

306
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 3: Seattle Civic Northwest, long trip, week one, new coach, new quarterback,

307
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 3: you want to lay six and a half points.

308
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,280
Speaker 2: Go ahead.

309
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,560
Speaker 3: They are they are what they are. And here's the

310
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 3: other thing that's gonna happen. I'm not saying I'm picking

311
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,640
Speaker 3: Seattle out right. I don't have the guts for it.

312
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 3: But so a teaser, demanse and for the listeners, is

313
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:09,679
Speaker 3: when you can move the line. The most traditional teaser

314
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:11,880
Speaker 3: is six points. There's six point, seven point, ten point,

315
00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 3: because six points. You can move the line six points,

316
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 3: but you gotta do it with multiple games. So everyone,

317
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:26,880
Speaker 3: everyone is going to have some combination of a Bengals, Chiefs,

318
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:32,639
Speaker 3: Broncos teaser. So they are gonna move those lines six points.

319
00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 3: So they're gonna take the Steelers from six and I'm sorry,

320
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 3: the Bengals from six and a half point favorites two

321
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 3: point five point favorites, meaning they just gotta win, or

322
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 3: the Chiefs from six point favorites to zero point favorites,

323
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 3: so they just gotta win. And the last leg for

324
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 3: all the teasers across America, it's gonna be, Oh, I

325
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:51,480
Speaker 3: just need Denver to win.

326
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 2: Sounds like a pretty lose.

327
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, how can I lose? And then all of a

328
00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 3: sudden halftime, it's gonna be thirteen to ten Denver, and

329
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,400
Speaker 3: you're gonna be like, oh boy, could Seattle steal this game?

330
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 3: Be careful. I'm just telling you, America, be careful. Don't

331
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 3: don't lose your ass in Week one. Bet in the

332
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 3: games they want you to bet, all right. Last three,

333
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 3: perfectly priced category.

334
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 4: Indianapolis at Houston. Houston's seven point underdogs.

335
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a perfectly priced exactly what's what it

336
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 3: sounds like? I think these lines are spot on. I

337
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 3: think Houston's not any good. The Colts are gonna be

338
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,560
Speaker 3: very good, but it's in Houston. A touchdown is just right.

339
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 3: That's exactly where I would have set the line. I

340
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 3: expect the Colts to win twenty four to seventeen, so

341
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 3: there's no value in it.

342
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 2: Next all right.

343
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 4: Kansas City at Arizona. Arizona is six point underdogs.

344
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the Chiefs win by just around a touchdown.

345
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 3: I am a I'm a little afraid of the Chiefs.

346
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 3: Up by ten, Arizona gets the late garbage time touchdown

347
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 3: to cover the spread. Yeah, all of a sudden they

348
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 3: lose by three instead of vice ten. I think the

349
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 3: line is just right. I think the Chiefs with no

350
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 3: Tyreek kill the changes this offseason, and the Chiefs are

351
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,160
Speaker 3: gonna be excellent. But I don't want to lay.

352
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 4: You know, you've been hating on Arizona for months now.

353
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 3: I have been hating on Arizona for months now, But

354
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: I think a lot of that's because I expect them

355
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,760
Speaker 3: to fold at the end of the year. And there's

356
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,640
Speaker 3: still a team that is a legitimate NFL team at

357
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 3: home and there you gotta beat them by more than

358
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 3: a touchdown or a touchdown. Plus, I think the line's

359
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,920
Speaker 3: exactly right. It's just perfectly priced, all right.

360
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 4: Next, right, Eagles at Detroit. Detroit are four point underdogs.

361
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's exactly Again, I just think it's

362
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 3: exactly right. I think that Philadelphia wins. I think Detroit

363
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 3: puts up a good fight, and I think it's a

364
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 3: you know, it's a one score game, so those are

365
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 3: perfectly priced lines. I think Vegas got those exactly right.

366
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 3: So that leaves us with the Rams Bills game, which

367
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 3: will have already happened by the time you guys see this. Jags,

368
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 3: the Jags Washington I keep for running call Washington Washington

369
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 3: football team. Uh, the Carolina Cleveland game, the Baltimore New

370
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 3: York Jets game, and the Miami New England game. Those

371
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 3: are the five games we're picking, and we tell you

372
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 3: which side and why next.

373
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 5: This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the

374
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,959
Speaker 5: inspiring true story about Anthony Roebliss, who defined every expectation

375
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 5: to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new

376
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 5: original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg.

377
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 5: Evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and

378
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 5: thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast

379
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 5: including Jirelle Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Pania, and

380
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 5: Bobby Canavalli. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.

381
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 3: All Right welcome back in What's Right with Nick great

382
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 3: Week one NFL gambling show. We just gave you our

383
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 3: logic on eleven of the sixteen games, what where we

384
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 3: would lean where? You gotta be careful. All of that's

385
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 3: five games were betting. One of them happens tonight, which

386
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 3: means it actually happened last night for you guys. That

387
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 3: is the Buffalo Bills visiting the Los Angeles Rams. And listen,

388
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 3: I'm risking starting off zero to one by even including

389
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 3: a Thursday night game and having it be By the way,

390
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 3: I probably shouldn't be including this from a content perspective,

391
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 3: because nobody can. Actually, this isn't actionable for the audience

392
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 3: because by the time they hear this or see this,

393
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 3: this game will have already happened. However, I feel so

394
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 3: confidently that this line is wrong that I have to

395
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 3: include it. The Rams plus two and a half is

396
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 3: the pick. Now here's the thing, and this is what

397
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 3: I'm going to have to try to communicate and explain

398
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 3: to Demanse. This does not mean I don't think the

399
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: Bills can win. This doesn't mean that I don't think

400
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 3: the Bills can cover. What this means purely is I

401
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: think this line is so wrong I have to bet it.

402
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 3: I think the true line this should be is the

403
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 3: Rams by two and a half. I think this line

404
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: is five points off. Now why do I think that?

405
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 3: I think the Rams and Bills are all most equal teams.

406
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 3: I think the Bills are probably a touch better. But

407
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 3: the games in Los Angeles, so if it's close to

408
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,239
Speaker 3: a pick them or give the Rams the you know

409
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,920
Speaker 3: a not the full three points, but in LA doesn't

410
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: have as good of a home crowd, but they get

411
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 3: the boost of their hanging their Super Bowl banner. This

412
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: line is so illogical. I've been hairiring this on TV

413
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 3: all week and again I might end up looking like

414
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 3: an idiot, but the line is just wrong. The line

415
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: opened by the way at the Rams minus two, and

416
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 3: it has been bet all the way to Bills by

417
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 3: two and a half. It's insane. So all when there's

418
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 3: so the goal is and again some of this is

419
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 3: the listener knows. But Demonday's not a football better. So

420
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 3: they set the line hoping that they get fifty percent

421
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 3: of action on both sides. But if one side keeps

422
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 3: getting more of the action, they try to make that

423
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: side less attractive by adjusting the line there, so it

424
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 3: was you could get the Bills, and you could get

425
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 3: them plus two points. Then everyone bet the Bills, so

426
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 3: then they made it plus one and a half, didn't

427
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 3: change it. Plus one didn't change it. Pick them and

428
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 3: they had They kept moving it, and people kept betting

429
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 3: Buffalo to where it had to get all the way

430
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 3: to two and a half, and now in some places

431
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 3: it got back down to two where they're just minus

432
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 3: two the Rams. You're telling me this game we're in Buffalo,

433
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 3: the Bills would be more than a touchdown. Favorites of

434
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 3: the defending champs would know. By the way, I would

435
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: like someone to answer this question. And again, maybe I'll

436
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 3: look like an idiot because the game has already been played.

437
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 3: Who is guarding Cooper Cup, Who's guarding any of the

438
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: Rams receivers. It's because Stafford could throw the ball fifty times.

439
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 3: Trey White is injured. The Bill's secondary is it's the

440
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: biggest question mark, particularly it's corner spots. It's just the

441
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: wrong line. So Rams plus two and a half is

442
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: my first pick of the year. Next Jacksonville is in Washington.

443
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 3: Jacksonville's getting two and a half points. I'd love if

444
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: this were three, it's not. I'm still taking Jacksonville plus

445
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 3: the two.

446
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 2: And a half.

447
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 3: I think Jacksonville's better than Washington. I don't think Washington

448
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 3: has any home field at all. The stadium sucks, the

449
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 3: fans hate the owner. The fans hate the team. They

450
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 3: love the team, they hate what the teams become. I

451
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 3: think there is going to be an instant energy boost

452
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 3: for Jacksonville post urban Meyer. I think Trevor Lawrence is

453
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: going to have an outstanding season. I think Trevor Lawrence

454
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 3: is going to be unleashed in a way he was

455
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 3: not all of last year. I think the Jags win

456
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,479
Speaker 3: this game out right again. If you're watching this and

457
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 3: you're with me on it, it is worthwhile. If it's

458
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 3: still two and a half where you're at, it's worthwhile

459
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: waiting to see if somehow late money comes in on

460
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 3: Washington and it pushes it up to three, because obviously

461
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 3: three is such a key number, and you can be like,

462
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: WHOA what if big money comes in on Jacksonville. Having

463
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: it go from Jacksonville plus two plus two and a

464
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 3: half to plus two doesn't really cost too much value.

465
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 3: But if you could somehow get it at plus three.

466
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 3: By the way, that's what I'll do for the pick segment.

467
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 3: I'm you know, it's two and a half, but I

468
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: won't bet this until kickoff, hoping somehow it gets to three.

469
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: It probably won't get to three, but I think Jacksonville

470
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 3: wins the game out right anyway. I think they're the

471
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 3: better team. I think they are a potential playoff team,

472
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: and I don't think Washington has a home field. Should

473
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 3: we go ahead? Does anything you want to say? We

474
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 3: move on?

475
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: No, I've got no rebuttals.

476
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: You've got no rebuttals. Okay, no, no, No, that's good. You

477
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 3: have somebody your little twinkle in your eye looks like

478
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 3: you want to say somebody, that's fine. This is really

479
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 3: and let's the you can chime in maybe you know what.

480
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 3: In fact, I'm going to make an executive decision. I'm

481
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 3: gonna give my five picks, and you give your chime

482
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: in thoughts or questions at the end. Overall, Okay, Next one,

483
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 3: Carolina is hosting the Panther or hosting the Browns. They're

484
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 3: only one and a half point favorites. Why why is

485
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 3: Carolina not even getting the full three points from being

486
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 3: at home?

487
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: Oh?

488
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 3: The Browns are better with Jacoby Brissett. Are we sure

489
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 3: Carolina minus one and a half is the play motivated

490
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield a healthy for the time being, Christian McCaffrey.

491
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 3: Browns had the worst offseason of any team in football

492
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 3: by a mile. Carolina got a legitimate defense. Jacoby was

493
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 3: horrendous last year. Horrendous, and I only have to lay.

494
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 3: They just have to win the game by more than one.

495
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: Carolina is gonna win the game. I would bet this.

496
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 3: I would have bet this up to Carolina minus three.

497
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: I'm getting it minus one and a half. This is

498
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 3: It is baffling to me that there has not been

499
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 3: more of a Jacoby Brissett adjustment. I understand people like

500
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 3: the Browns for the year, and they liked him because,

501
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 3: oh that roster with what we think Deshaun Watson's going

502
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 3: to be. But I question how much people watched Jacoby

503
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 3: Brissett last year. I'm trying to pull up his numbers,

504
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 3: but they're really, really bad.

505
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 2: Guys.

506
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 3: He played in a total of eleven games for Miami.

507
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: I'd like to pull up his game log, but in

508
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 3: those eleven games he had I want to make sure

509
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: I'm reading this sort Oh yeah, that's right. Five touchdowns,

510
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 3: four picks, a seventy eight rating. Jacoby he averaged less

511
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 3: than six yards per attempt. He's on the road. So yes,

512
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 3: I believe in the Panthers this year to a agree,

513
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: and I like Baker. This is more of a fading

514
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissette situation. I like Carolina minus a point and

515
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,959
Speaker 3: a half. Next, all right, I'm gonna be breaking some

516
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 3: of my rules from the earlier parts of the show.

517
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 3: You know, I don't like betting road favorites. I particularly

518
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: don't like betting big road favorites. Sometimes though it's too

519
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: good to be true. Baltimore's playing the Jets. This is

520
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 3: one that I would not wait to bet. I would

521
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 3: be terrified, not terrified. I would not want this thing

522
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 3: to go to seven and a half. I know you

523
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: can be like, ah, maybe go six and a half. No,

524
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 3: Baltimore minus seven against the Jets is the bet, and

525
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 3: I could not be more thrilled about it. The idea,

526
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: and I'm pulling up another game log here. The idea

527
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 3: that we are getting the opportunity once again to bet

528
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 3: against Joe Flacco is such a treat, the likes of

529
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: which I thought was over in my life. I did

530
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 3: not think we were. I thought that the days of

531
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: betting against Joe Flacco were long gone. But they're not.

532
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: He is starting. This is going to be is this right?

533
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 3: Hold on a second here, Okay, there we go. Joe

534
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: Flacco last year and this what started when he started

535
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: against Miami on the TV show. My three bets for

536
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: the week were Miami first quarter, Miami first half, Miami

537
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 3: game because I thought it was going to be the

538
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: last time in my life that I got an opportunity

539
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: to bet against Joe Flacco. And if I remember correctly,

540
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 3: what costs I won the game. I won something else.

541
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: What cost me in that game I'm looking up now

542
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: was a Jason Meyer missed field goal on the final play.

543
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 3: Jason Sanders. Yeah, Jason Sanders, by the way, just real quick,

544
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: I needed Miami to be leading by two and a

545
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 3: half time in that game. Then I'll explain the logic

546
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 3: in this game. They they got the ball to the

547
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: fifteen yard line in a seven to seven game with

548
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 3: fifteen seconds left in the first half. Jason Sanders, one

549
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: of the best kickers in the league, who I don't

550
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: think had missed a field goal all year. Then Gacks

551
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: a thirty two yard field goal. I don't win that bet,

552
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 3: but I won the rest of them. I think I

553
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 3: bet Miami money lined Miami game and Miami first half.

554
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 3: Baltimore's seven's gonna be excellent. Baltimore's running game is going

555
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 3: to be unstoppable. The Jets are a mess. This could.

556
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 3: Baltimore is a team similar to Buffalo that against bad teams.

557
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: I expect them to blow the doors off of them.

558
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,719
Speaker 3: This game has twenty one to three at halftime written

559
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 3: all over it. I again, typically I don't love betting

560
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: road favorites. I really don't love betting road big road favorites.

561
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 3: I will make the exception here. You have maybe the

562
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 3: worst team in the AFC starting a decrepit old quarterback

563
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 3: who is no business being a Week one starter in

564
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two against a Baltimore team that is going

565
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: to be outstanding. Baltimore minus seven. All right, last game.

566
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 3: Remember how I said there were four games I liked.

567
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: Those were the four. I have my least level of

568
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: confidence on this game because of the half point. Miami

569
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 3: minus three and a half at home against New England

570
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 3: is the pick. I don't love laying more than a

571
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: field goal with a rookie head coach and two a

572
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 3: tongue I lows the quarterback against Bill Belichick. I have

573
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 3: images of a to a Fumbler pick getting returned for

574
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 3: a touchdown, dancing in my head and getting screwed here. However,

575
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: I do not think the Patriots offense can score more

576
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: than thirteen points. I don't so if there's not a

577
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: defensive or special team touchdown. Do I think Miami can

578
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 3: get to seventeen? I do I because of my commitment

579
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: to the audience, I will bet all five of these games,

580
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 3: and I'll bet them all frequent amounts because that's how

581
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 3: we're gonna do it throughout the year. One unit on

582
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: each of these. But Miami is the one. I'm at three.

583
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: I like it at three and a half. I don't

584
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: love it as much as I love the other ones,

585
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 3: but it's our final pick. It's a fade the Patriots

586
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 3: season on this show.

587
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 4: So you really want to start off for a new

588
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: betting show betting against Bill Belichick and betting on Baker Mayfield.

589
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 4: I feel like that's not such a such a hot start, right. Well,

590
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 4: let's see burst out of the gate, right Okay?

591
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 3: Well, you know what Let's see.

592
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 4: Bill Belichick's also won seventy three of his games coached

593
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 4: by other coaches named Mike. So ok, seventy three screwed already.

594
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 3: Dumb as Wilde's stat on the TV show that Bill

595
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: Belichick is undefeated in his career against rookie coaches making

596
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: their coaching debut, and that undefeated is one to zero.

597
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: It sounds good, but it's it's one.

598
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 2: Game, thirty three and twelve. Actually, he's coached.

599
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: Forty five games against dude's named Mike Tomlin. This is

600
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin. Yeah, yeah, he hasn't coached forty five games

601
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 3: against Mike Tomlin, obviously, Max, Mike, I do not believe

602
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 3: he's thirty three and twelve against coaches named Mike. Okay,

603
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 3: who gave you that stat? Matt, thirty three and twelve,

604
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 3: Matt hold On, thirty three and twelve? Is that real?

605
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 3: Now we're off the rails a bit. Thirty three and twelve, Okay,

606
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 3: hold on a second, he has three hundred and twenty

607
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 3: one career wins. So you're saying ten percent or against

608
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 3: a guy named Mike of his career wins or against

609
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 3: coaches named Mike. Mike Shanahan. All right, that's a lot

610
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 3: of games against Mike Shanahan, Mike Vrabel, Mike Smith, Mike Malarkey.

611
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: I'm alright, I buy it. I guess seems like a

612
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 3: big number. Seems like a big number.

613
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: Guy wins a lot of games. Man.

614
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: Uh No, that's a fair point. I mean he does

615
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: win a lot of games. Uh. But Mike Petton, I thought,

616
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 3: I said Mike Schula. But okay, all right, I give

617
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 3: it to him. Wow, so ya doesn't change my opinion.

618
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 3: Can we throw up the full screen of my five

619
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 3: picks again?

620
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: Please?

621
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 3: Five picks Rams plus two and a half, Jacksonville plus

622
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,720
Speaker 3: two and a half, Carolina minus one and a half,

623
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 3: Baltimore minus seven, Miami minus three and a half. Even

624
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: though I don't love it as much as I love

625
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: the others, there's our five picks coming up next. I

626
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 3: will give you my lock, which while I do every

627
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: single week, and if we're doing any teasers or parlays

628
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 3: this week, any exotics, will give you those, and then

629
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 3: Demand says he has a bit for me at the end,

630
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 3: which I'm sure will be a barrel of laughs. That's

631
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 3: all Next, we wrap up Week one NFL Gambling show,

632
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 3: Welcome back in time. Now for the lock of the week.

633
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 3: I didn't even mention this. I will give you one

634
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 3: survivor pool pick each week to wander. You know what

635
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 3: survivor pool is?

636
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: Uh? No, okay, so this you know what I got.

637
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: You're in one. I got one for you.

638
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 2: Okay.

639
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 3: Survivor pools are very it sounds very simple, and they're

640
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 3: incredibly fun. All you have to do every single week

641
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,959
Speaker 3: is pick one team to win, no point spread. That's

642
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 3: the entirety of it. You have to pick one winner.

643
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 3: The wrinkle is you can only pick a team once

644
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:13,720
Speaker 3: all season, so you got to when you make your pick, think,

645
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 3: am I gonna want to? Is there gonna be a

646
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 3: better opportunity to use this team later in the year.

647
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,720
Speaker 3: And whoever's the last person standing wins the pool?

648
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: Whoever?

649
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 3: You know, if you get it wrong, once you're out.

650
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 2: And if so, they have to keep winning consecutive again.

651
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 3: No, no, no, no, each week you pick a different team.

652
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: Oh okay.

653
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 3: But the point is is like, let's say, uh, the

654
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 3: there's a jugger. Let's say you, not you, but someone

655
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 3: believes the bills like a lot of people do, are

656
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 3: a jugger.

657
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: Not you?

658
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,439
Speaker 3: Can't pick the bills every single week. You can only

659
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 3: pick a team once all year.

660
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 4: Oh so.

661
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: It is like you want to find a spot where

662
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 3: there's a mediocre team, usually at home against an awful team,

663
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 3: Pick them right, use them there, save the greaves for

664
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 3: whatever the other it all. The other strategy the survivor

665
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: pools is this, how big is your pool? So I'm

666
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 3: in a pool that is has I'll say it, I

667
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: don't care over ten thousand people in it. The payout

668
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 3: is for you, life changing, for me, be nice. But

669
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 3: in a pool that size, there's a strategy of you

670
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 3: actually don't want to pick the you know, the huge

671
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 3: favorite cults hosting the Texans, you know later in the

672
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 3: year of the eleven point favorites. That's always my strategy

673
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 3: in giant pools because the only way that a giant

674
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 3: pool is going to get end up with just one

675
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 3: winner and not it being split one hundred different ways

676
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: because one hundred people want it, is if one of

677
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 3: those a few of those giant favorites lose. So you

678
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 3: want to avoid the teams that youth in a giant

679
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: pool that thirty percent of the pool's gonna pick, you

680
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 3: know what I mean? That way you can be rooted,

681
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 3: and it's more fun to root for those upsets your life.

682
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 3: In a small pool, you don't do any of that.

683
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 3: You just try to survive in advance. So we'll do

684
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 3: all that. Okay, Lack of the week is very simple,

685
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 3: and it's actually also my Survivor pick. I'm it. I

686
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 3: really believe the Ravens are gonna be awesome this year.

687
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 3: I also really, why is that still the picture of me?

688
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: Fox still uses that picture of me when I was

689
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 3: slightly overweight and bald heads. Yeah, it was just a

690
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 3: terrible picture of me, A great picture. Demase. But Week one,

691
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 3: we're all in unfading Flacco.

692
00:38:59,480 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: Okay.

693
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: Our lock is Baltimore minus seven. Our survivor pick is

694
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 3: Baltimore against the Jets. You don't love picking road teams

695
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 3: in Survivor, but there is no home team. What is

696
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 3: the biggest I'm looking right now, who's the biggest home

697
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 3: favorite this week? I think it's Cincinnati. There's no home

698
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: team favored by more than a touchdown, So it's Cincinnati,

699
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 3: And I don't love I'm certainly not betting Cincinnati in

700
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 3: the Survivor pool because I think Pittsburgh there's a chance

701
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 3: they win that game. So Baltimore's our survivor pick. Baltimore's

702
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 3: our lock of the week. So we're gonna all your long.

703
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: We're gonna keep the standings of the five games we

704
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 3: pick and the standings of the lock of the week.

705
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 3: We also some weeks are gonna do teasers in parlays.

706
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 3: Those are called exotics, you know, stringing bets together for

707
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: massive payos. This is the type of thing you would

708
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 3: like to do Week one, America, we're not doing any

709
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 3: We're getting off, you know what. We're starting the season.

710
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 3: We're protecting our bank roll. We are. We don't love

711
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 3: any of the teasers. They all feel like traps. There's

712
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 3: no long shot parlay we like to do, so I

713
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 3: know it's kind of anti climactic. No teaser, no parlay

714
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 3: this week. You can't force it, guys. If it's there,

715
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 3: it's there. If it's not, it's not. No teaser, no

716
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 3: parlay this week. So that's for this week. Lack of

717
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 3: the Week Baltimore RONEUS seven Survivor picked Baltimore over the Jets.

718
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 3: We're fading Flacco as much as we can. All right, Now,

719
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 3: what's this silly bit you have?

720
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 2: So this is the offer the offer?

721
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 3: Yes, like the param Oh oh dude, what that's a

722
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 3: cool photoshop?

723
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 2: That is pretty sick? All right?

724
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,959
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, can I embarrass you real quick?

725
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,959
Speaker 3: It's about movie knowledge, it's not about anything else.

726
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 2: I've never seen The Godfather.

727
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 3: Oh but you knew that was from the Godfather? Yeah,

728
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: I did because Matt told you no.

729
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: Because I played the video game.

730
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 3: Oh that was a great video game. That was a

731
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 3: video game. I think I bought for myself and you

732
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: ended up playing can we download that?

733
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 2: Not enough space? Oh?

734
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, sidebar. I bought a PS five had a goddamn

735
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 3: bodega for one thousand dollars. I bought it one terabyte.

736
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 3: Like a terabyte sounds like a lot. I I just

737
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: wanted a few games on it. I didn't go out

738
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 3: of town. I come back. I'm like, hey, I'm gonna

739
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 3: sit down and play a few video games on vacation

740
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 3: from the show. All my games have been deleted, all deleted.

741
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 3: And it's all of a sudden, we've got we got

742
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 3: a third of the of the space on this is

743
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 3: as you know. I found this. I don't even think

744
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: you've meant to do it. Do you know how much

745
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 3: space you're taking. Yes, it's not even just games. It's

746
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 3: not like, oh, Demonte has downloaded a bunch of games

747
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:03,400
Speaker 3: for the PlayStation. Go ahead, and by the way, once again,

748
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 3: go back to an archived one of the original What's right.

749
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: Fame of one of our favorite clips is back when

750
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 3: you could just play a game. By playing a game,

751
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 3: you didn't have to download it, put the disc in

752
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 3: and it plays. The thing is a better time set outside.

753
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 3: But I'm like, why, how on earth is all this

754
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 3: space taken up? And it's because Demonse's got a goddamn

755
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:29,080
Speaker 3: highlight reel. One of these videos to Monse is fourteen

756
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 3: minutes long.

757
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 4: I mean, that's just how much I'm kicking ass.

758
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 3: It's like a huddle server of Call of Duty murders.

759
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 3: So that's why I can't download or even keep the games.

760
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 2: I've start taking off some of the mediocre clips.

761
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 3: I almost erased all of them because I thought it

762
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: was I was like, oh, he didn't mean to do this,

763
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 3: like he accidentally clicked this.

764
00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 1: Do it.

765
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 3: I was just like, you know what, I don't want

766
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 3: Demond's to come up and be like, did you erase

767
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 3: the videos? Like and this is how it would go

768
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 3: and be like yeah, I did, Like all right, man,

769
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 3: like why what's wrong? And I just in my head

770
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 3: I was like no, I was I was gonna submit

771
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 3: them in like a contest, and I was gonna be like,

772
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: oh man, I screwed him, Like this is gonna be

773
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 3: I really thought it was possible. But okay, all right,

774
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 3: oh okay, all right, So what's the offer?

775
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 2: My offer?

776
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:36,399
Speaker 4: I love that graphic once again, all starting quarterbacks over

777
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 4: the age of thirty seven, Brady, Flacco, Rogers, and Ryan

778
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: to have a rushing rushing touchdown.

779
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 2: Yes, which is crazy.

780
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 3: And when you look at the odds, hold on, well,

781
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 3: so I want to be clear on this. Are you

782
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 3: guys just making these up? Or is this an actionable

783
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: wager you can make?

784
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: It?

785
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,720
Speaker 3: Might like, is this a real Are the odds real?

786
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 2: It might be?

787
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,879
Speaker 4: Actually yes, yeah, they are actually on Fox?

788
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: Bet okay, so they can do it on Fox.

789
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 2: Bet okay.

790
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 3: So there's a real bet. It's something make just but

791
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 3: it's randomly No. I get that. I'm not saying did

792
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 3: you bet it? I'm saying you didn't just make up

793
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,760
Speaker 3: the numbers? What are the odds that those four quarterbacks

794
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: Brady Flaco, Rogers, and Ryan, all I have a rushing touchdown.

795
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 4: For those For those four, you bet one hundred, you

796
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 4: win seven hundred and fifty about seven hundred and fifty

797
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 4: thousand dollars.

798
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 3: It's plus seven hundred and fifty thousand.

799
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 2: Yes.

800
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 3: With one hundred enough not enough, not enough?

801
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 2: Okay.

802
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 4: With only Rogers and Brady, your bet one hundred, you

803
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 4: get about fifty five hundred bucks.

804
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 3: So it's plus just five hundred thirty. I don't hate

805
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 3: the Rogers and Brady one, okay, I despise the other

806
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: one even like that. No, it's just the odds that

807
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: all four do it are almost it's folks, there's gonna

808
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 3: be like ah, but it pays out. Take this as

809
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 3: the final I'm not going to take any.

810
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 2: Of these bets, by the way, okay, but sweet.

811
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 3: Take this as the final lesson of the first What's

812
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 3: Right Show? Losing bets pay zero. Just remind yourself that

813
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 3: before you type in the hey here this thirty cents

814
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,280
Speaker 3: can turn into six hundred thousand dollars. There's a reason

815
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 3: because losing bets pay zero.

816
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: All right, cool Vegas, you got thirty cents. Whoop de doo.

817
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm just telling you losing bets pay zero, and

818
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 3: that plus seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars that the

819
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 3: four oldest quarterbacks in the league are gonna get rushing touchdowns.

820
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 2: Hey man, By that logic though, losing bets pay nothing.

821
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 4: But if I just keep keep playing these small one

822
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 4: off bets week by week by week by week, when

823
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 4: it finally does pay off, it paid off and I

824
00:45:58,000 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 4: got I got a profit.

825
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, or it never pays off and you lost.

826
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: But it's gonna pay off. It's bound to pay off

827
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: one time.

828
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 3: A seven hundred and fifty thousand Okay. I just want

829
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,840
Speaker 3: you to understand that that is the odds of it.

830
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 2: I get it. It's they're very slim.

831
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 3: Seventy five hundred to one. So when you say it's

832
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 3: bound to pay off, seventy five hundred to one is

833
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 3: bound to pay off. Like the odds are in your

834
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: favor that it happens at least once once you do

835
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: it more than three thousand times. So that's why, okay, listen,

836
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 3: I don't want to end the show on a down note.

837
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 3: I have to go do television. Folks, gamble safely. Don't

838
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 3: bet any amount you can't afford to lose. Is supposed

839
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,319
Speaker 3: to enhance the enjoyment of the games, not give you

840
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 3: nightmares at night, not keep you up at night. I

841
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 3: say that's someone from a lot of experience, with a

842
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 3: lot of gambling highs and a lot of gambling lows.

843
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 4: I'm just trying to get my new apartment in Los

844
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 4: Angeles as all, I'm trying to think of the best

845
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 4: way to do it.

846
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 2: I feel like this is definitely.

847
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 4: A nice get rich quick scheme that will definitely pay out,

848
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 4: maybe like week four.

849
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:08,399
Speaker 3: Okay, Well, you know, there is a part of Demondse's

850
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 3: ability throughout life to just kind of dance through the

851
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,839
Speaker 3: rain drops that I could see him being the guy

852
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,800
Speaker 3: who is like, hey, second bet of my life, paid

853
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 3: eighty to one and hit it. I can see that.

854
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 3: I also thought the apartment in Los Angeles was already

855
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 3: paid for with the ten thousand dollars you won for

856
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 3: me that you swore was being put away.

857
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 4: But I got the shades, the Cardier sunglasses that were

858
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 4: in the graphic.

859
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 3: Okay, Cardier card Okay, let's just end it on Demonse

860
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:50,400
Speaker 3: spend fox bet account, spending his apartment money on designer

861
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 3: sunglasses that he pronounced Cartier. Let end I did not

862
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 3: just say Cardier. What did you say?

863
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: I said Cardier.

864
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 3: Check the tape listen. I know we got a quick

865
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 3: turnaround on this. If we could just end the show

866
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 3: with the monse solo pronunciation of that, that would be wonderful.

867
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 4: I got the shades, the Cardier sunglasses, the Cardier sunglasses,

868
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 4: the Cardiers, the Cordier sunglasses.

869
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 3: I'll talk to you, guys on Tuesday. I'll see you

870
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 3: on TV on Monday. Good luck this weekend. Hey, thanks

871
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 3: for watching Smash. Or just slightly tap that subscribe button.

872
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 3: It all works the same to get more from the

873
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 3: show and make sure you click why don't want to

874
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,240
Speaker 3: mash the bell too, guys, or just you know, lightly

875
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 3: tap the bell to get notified every time new content drops.

876
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 3: Check out full episodes of What's Right wherever you get

877
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 3: your podcasts, or just hit the link in the description

878
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 3: below