WEBVTT - Kissinger, Musk, CRE, and AI 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:04.360 Bloomberg is now on your dashboard with Apple CarPlay and 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:08.160 Android Auto. It gives you access to every Bloomberg podcast, 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.560 live audio feeds from Bloomberg Radio, print stories from Bloomberg 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:14.920 News in audio form, and the latest headlines of the 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.600 click of a button with Bloomberg News. Now it's free 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.439 with the latest version of the Bloomberg Business App. That's 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.400 the Bloomberg Business App. Get it on your phone in 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.760 the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Just download 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.560 the app, connect your phone to your car and get started. 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.400 And it's all presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.600 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:39.800 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:44.159 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:48.160 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven News. 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.839 I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.080 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com slash podcast. 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:58.480 We want to bring in Bloomberg TV's David Weston for 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:02.000 a conversation on the life and legacy of Henry Kischinger. First, 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.320 I want to bring you part of David's discussion with 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.360 Bloomberg opinion commist Neil Ferguson, who wrote a book on 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:10.720 the life of Henry Kischinger and spent extensive time with him. 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.280 Here's part of their discussion on the role of Kissinger 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:14.960 played in the Yamkipoor War. 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:20.440 For Kissinger, the moral imperative in the Cold War was 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:23.039 to avoid World War three, and that was one of 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.600 the reasons that he pursued a policy of deton of 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:30.039 understanding of improving relations with the Soviet Union, because I 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.959 think reasonably he thought the worst possible outcome for the 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:38.480 world would be a hot war between two nuclear armed superpars, 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.960 and so in practice, when he entered the realm of 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.840 power as Richard Nixon's national security advisor, I think he 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:48.840 remained an idealist, but an idealist who was having to 0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:53.720 deal with some extremely difficult choices between, as I've said, 0:01:53.960 --> 0:01:57.840 greater and lesser evils. So I don't think the idealism 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:02.440 was ever entirely eradicated. Certainly, working with Richard Nixon, you 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.520 were working with somebody who saw himself as a very 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:09.680 tough realist who wasn't afraid to do very difficult and 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.360 even nasty things. So I think there was an element 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.760 of compromise just in accepting a job with Nixon. But 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:20.400 once Nixon has gone, it's very interesting to see Kissinger 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:25.080 under Ford shift in a much more idealistic direction, and 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.080 a lot of Kissinger's later career, about which one hears 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:32.800 much much less, owed a lot more to his earlier 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.600 roots in German idealism. 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:39.880 It was Bloomberg Television's David Weston speaking with Bloomberg Opinion 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:42.240 Calmnesst Neil Fergus. I want to bring in David western 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:44.720 right now. David, thanks so much for joining us here 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:46.239 in our Bloomberg studio here. 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:50.120 What a life. It's been your life, my life. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:55.000 That has been US diplomacy, whether it's official or nonofficial, 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:56.280 it's been Henry Kissinger. 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:59.040 Yeah, he's been the only diplomat i'd ever heard of. Frankly, 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.240 I mean when you first pointed, I was in high school. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:03.920 Actually I'm old enough to remember that when Richard Nixon 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:07.040 appointed him. But and as Ray Dalio actually just posted 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.919 something saying this, you can't think of it who studied 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.480 history as deeply as Henry Kissinger did as an academic 0:03:12.480 --> 0:03:14.160 at Harvard. He would have had a distinguished career in 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:17.400 that and then lived the diploma say was responsible for it, 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:20.200 and then got to know pretty much every world leader 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:22.919 and didn't just know them. They hung on his every word. 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.600 And that's China, that's Soviet Union, that's anwar, Sadat and 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.600 Egypt around the world. I mean, it's quite strang If 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.799 you read his book on leadership, he goes through the 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.520 six leaders that he had respect for. He starts with 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.880 Charles de Gaulle, who we knew personally, and he goes 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:40.680 on to Conrad Adenauer, whom he knew personally, and Maggie 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.240 Thatcher thinks it's really extraordinary life wow. 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.920 And David, you knew him personally as well. So maybe 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:47.320 if you could tell us a little bit about some 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:51.440 of your memories with Henry Kissinger and what you'll think 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:52.960 of him most. 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.600 Yeah, I would say, I'm not sure Henry would say 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:56.280 this if he were here, But he sort of adopted 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:58.200 me when I came to New York in the mid nineties. 0:03:58.320 --> 0:03:59.680 I think he took pity on me and took me 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.160 under and he used to invite me to breakfast that 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.160 he had with like twenty people or so at a 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.119 club where he'd have visiting dignitaries in people he'd known 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.520 through the years where we'd have an off the record 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.800 discussion about what was going on in Asia, in Europe 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.280 and the Middle East, and it was wonderful. It was 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.279 one of his experiences. And so he really and I 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:19.839 had lunches with him where he would He was a 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.279 teacher forever and he wanted to teach you, and he 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.839 had an amazing mind. You could agree with them, you 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:26.880 could disagree with them, but he had thought it all 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.440 through many times, and he could explain to you how 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.160 everything was connected to everything else. He was already fastening. 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:34.200 Last thing. He was a huge dog person. 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:34.880 Really. 0:04:34.960 --> 0:04:37.400 He and Nancy loved dogs. I mean, I can't believe 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.800 they always were with a dog constantly. And he was 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.640 a charming, actually very warm man in many ways. 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.760 It's amazing what did he think of what's happened, not 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:48.480 just the United States over the last five six, seven years, 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.080 in terms of the nationalism America first in the US, 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:55.440 with Brexit in the UK and the elections. It seems 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:58.000 like internationalism, which I think you and I kind of 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:02.080 grew up with post World War Two, is not necessarily 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.960 the leading role or the leading thought here in international 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:06.800 relations these days. 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.320 Well, these are my words, not his, but I think 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:12.800 he would say it's dangerous. We have to remember he 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.599 came out of Nazi Germany, fleeing it in nineteen thirty 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:18.760 eight with his family as a Jew, and he studied. 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:22.200 In his work. He started with the post Napoleonic Wars, 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.600 putting it together Europe and talking about the balance of powers, 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:28.480 people like Metternik that he really valued as a way 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:32.280 to avoid war. He wanted to avoid conflict at all costs. 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:34.679 And I think he would say, if we were here today, 0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:38.480 there are real dangers in everybody going to their respective 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.560 corners and fighting with whether people get hurt that way. 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:43.599 And in fact, he talked about this just last month 0:05:43.760 --> 0:05:45.680 was the last time I saw him. He appeared live 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.040 at the Al Smith dinner here in New York, and 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:51.240 he gave a speech on this very subject, warning people 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:53.040 about the dangers here that we have in front of 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:54.159 us if we keep going this way. 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:56.320 Well, one of the bigger parts of his legacy was, 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.240 of course brokering the peace in the Middle East, and 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:03.200 certain hearkens now to what we're seeing between the Born 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:06.960 Israel and with Hamas. So did you speak to him 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.760 more recently to know what he was thinking as far 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:13.279 as the conflict now, or what you might imagine he 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:15.880 would have to say thinking about this current conflict. 0:06:15.960 --> 0:06:17.800 Yeah, I don't want to be so presumptuous as to 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:19.760 speak with him for him, but I think he would 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.760 definitely say it's very different in many respects. The attack 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.080 was different hamas terrorists going in and slaughtering children was 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:30.080 different from a surprise attack from Egypt. In Syria and 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.120 Israel at the same time, there are some parallels because 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.599 what happened there if you remember, is Henry Kissinger with 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.240 President Nixon, came in strong on the side of Israel 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.440 and shift them a lot of weapons and material and 0:06:43.480 --> 0:06:45.440 support in the early stage. But then there was a 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.279 pivot where they started saying, Israel, you've got to back off. 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:51.080 You can't go too hard against Egypt. And in fact, 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:53.600 at one point he really interviewed very forcefully because he 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:57.080 was concerned that if Israel tried to destroy one of 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.800 the armies of Egypt, which they could have done, the 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:02.920 Soviet Union would come in and there'd be a shooting war, 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:04.839 and we ended up with US against the Soviet Union. 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.039 So he actually played a key role in saying to 0:07:08.200 --> 0:07:10.560 Israel you've got it back down, and he had some real, 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.360 real conflicts of gold in my ear at the time. 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:16.280 And of course Israel he's getting different pressure now to 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.640 back down, not for fear of Russia coming into the conflict, 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.360 but kind of similar to what we're seeing now in 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:23.120 that sense. 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.440 David, some of the criticism of mister Kishinger maybe as 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:27.640 a release to human rights. 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.840 And his pursuit of global diplomacy. 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:33.120 What he would say, what I've read, would I'm making 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:34.920 some hard choices here, and some of the hard choices 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:37.520 might result in some human rights being violated in. 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:39.800 Various places around the world. How did he deal with 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:41.920 that or how did he talk about that? 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:44.320 Well, he did talk about it, and I would say 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:45.760 he would deny this. I would say he was a 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.840 bit defensive particular things like Cambodia. But you can't talk 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.000 about the legacy of Andrew Kitchen without talking about so 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:53.760 of the countries, with Cambodia and the so called Secret War, 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.440 with what happened in Chile, with the coup, what happened 0:07:56.440 --> 0:08:00.000 in Argentina, and even what happened in Pakistan. But I think, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.560 I think and Walter Isaacson also wrote a book about 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:07.160 Henry Kustinger quotes Henry quoting a version of Gerta that 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.200 basically said, if you make me choose between injustice and 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:13.960 order and justice and disorder, I will take injustice and order, 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.160 I think, which comes partly from his background, because he 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:21.320 saw what disorder in World War two in Europe could do, 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:24.360 and so he did make some tough decisions. I'm sure 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:26.040 he would say the session and he would say, look, 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:27.840 I can't say I was right. I just tell me 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.200 would have been better? Give me what the better alternati 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:32.520 would have been at the time that was the one 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:35.160 that would preserve the most order that we could have. 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:37.800 When we're thinking back now to the war that we're 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.400 seeing in the Middle East, and you know, current Secretary 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.679 of State Anthony Blincoln, he's gone out to Israel to 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:48.000 you know, to speak with the officials over there. Do 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.600 you think that there would like, you know, speaking onto 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.199 How you think that the current Secretary of State and 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.120 really what their role is in this conflict, and how 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:59.760 it's different from Kissinger's roll back at the Camp David Accords. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.800 Ironic, isn't it that we're seeing shuttle diplomacy even as 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:05.600 we speak right now with Tony blinkin over there in 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:08.480 Israel and going to Romala, going to the West Bank 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:11.600 and trying to keep things under control as much as 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:15.600 they can. It's ironic, it's very difficult because, I mean, 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:17.599 for those of us who are around, Henry Kinsinger was 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:21.240 larger than life. I mean, he dated superstar models and 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:23.040 things like that, and he was on the front pages 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:24.840 of paper all the time, and he had such a 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.280 powerful position in Nixon. I'm not sure there are figures 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:31.120 anywhere right now that are loom Is large. But I 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:33.959 think what we're seeing from Secretary of State Blincoln and 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.360 from President Biden right now is a version of what 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:39.280 Henry Kinsinger tried to pursue, which is basically, let's talk 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.079 to all the parties, figure out where the interests are, 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:44.000 find the right balance, and keep things under control. Even 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.480 if we can't come to an overall solution of the problem, 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:49.600 let's manage the problem and try to minimize the damage 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:51.439 and yes, the loss of human life. 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:55.520 David mister Kissinger was one of the architects of Dayton 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.320 with the Soviet Union. What were some of his thoughts 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:00.559 about the rise of Vladimir Putin kind of what we're 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:02.960 seeing from Russian activities over the last decade or so. 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.960 Well, he obviously, I suppose, thought that that was very 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:11.320 dangerous and very risky and a much different situation to 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:15.600 what we had before, in part because actually Russia today 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.120 is not as powerful as the Soviet Union was then. 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.480 I mean, if we think back to that Cold War, 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:22.880 I mean, there were two superpowers they're scaring up. If 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.120 there are two superpowers today, it's China and the United States, 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.120 and Russia is a smaller player, which in some ways 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:30.800 makes it more dangerous because they feel they have less 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:32.920 to lose and they feel that they have more to gain. 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:35.680 And certainly, if you read what Vladimir Putin says, he 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.680 feels he was really done wrong. Russia was done wrong 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:40.800 with the fall of Wall, and he's got to resume 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:43.760 restore that prestige, which makes it more dangerous. 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.439 China, I mean, that's the new thing that I mean, 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:49.160 I can't imagine he's very happy with what's kind of 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:51.800 chilled over relationship over the last four or five six 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:53.000 years between US and China. 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.280 Well, perhaps his last international trip was to Beijing, very good, 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.480 where he got to meet with President gi personally, when 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:00.520 else nobody else in the United it could meet with 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.880 President G. G you wanted to do with him, And 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:07.160 you can underestimate the reverence point that the Chinese leadership 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.319 has and has had for generations for Henry Kissinger. Now, 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:12.760 part of that is part of the culture. They really 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.800 revere the elderly people who have a lot of experience. 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.720 I mean, it reminds me actually of Charlie Munger right now, 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.559 where Charlie Munger said, boy, you get a good executive, 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.480 you keep him there forever. You don't turn them over 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.240 five or six years. But the Chinese really revered that. 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:28.000 But also if you think of from China's point of view, 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:30.920 imagine where China was when he went there first and 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.520 where it is now and would it have gotten there. 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.599 I'm not sure it would have gotten as far or 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.520 as fast without Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon, because it 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.640 was Richard Nixon's idea. Henry Kinsinger implemented it, but it 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:43.400 was actually Richard Nixon's strategy. 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:45.560 David, thank you so much for joining us. David Weston, 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.400 he is the host of Wall Street Week, which is 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.840 one of my favorite brands ever on Wall Street. Wall 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.839 Street Week bearing both on radio and television with his thoughts, 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:59.480 his perspectives on the extraordinary life of Henry Kissinger, passed 0:11:59.480 --> 0:11:59.920 away at the AI. 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.400 You're listening to the Team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.840 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:12.040 the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.240 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.760 I don't know if the uh the cyber truck thing 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:20.880 Majiggi's got Apple Play, but we'll check in with our next guest. 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:21.079 Dan. 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:22.520 I've held everything about this stuff. 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:25.240 Dan Ives is a managing director senior equity analyst web 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:30.160 Bush Securities UH and a Penn State Rabbit fan of 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:33.079 note there. All right, Dan, I'm seeing the video of 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.200 the cyber truck. I just don't get it. Dude, I 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:37.400 don't see It's not a truck man. I can't throw 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:39.920 a ball of hay in the back of the truck. 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.120 More importantly, why are you carrying builds of hay? 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.719 Well, because I'm gonna get I'm a rancher. Maybe I'm 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.400 gonna get a ranch, you know, thinking about that. I 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.080 watch I watch Yellowstone. So Dan, talk to us about 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.600 this cyber truck. What's it mean for Tesla. 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.840 This is important. I call it a historical event for 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.480 Tesla and Mosque in terms of this new category four 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:03.600 years in the making. I mean you got two million reservations, 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.040 even if forty percent of those convert base in our 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:08.920 estimates eight hundred thousand, I mean, this is gonna be 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:11.640 a new growth vehicle, obviously on the edge the mad 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.920 Max design. But I think this is gonna be successful, 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.000 and I think book people like Miller they're gonna be 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:18.400 driving us around New York. 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.000 Wow, Matt, I hope you're listening in to hear that one. 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:22.440 He's not gonna get his way to sign off on this. 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.439 He's got the challenger with the scat pack. 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:25.920 That's enough. 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:26.040 One. 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:27.480 Well, we're gonna have to see if it can strap 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.560 in a baby counter in the back, so that would 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.000 be the most important for him. Right now, Dan, tell 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:34.760 us of what you're so you think this is gonna 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:37.040 be successful. I'll tell us a little bit about some 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.040 of the projections you've run and just how you know 0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:42.079 breaks down the numbers for us in terms of how 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:43.480 this is going to play out for Tesla. 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:46.840 Look, the important thing today is about pricing, because that's 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:50.880 that's really the unknown we think pricing is probably sweet 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.160 spot sixty to seventy K, and that's important. You'll also 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:59.280 get tax credit there at that level at scale two 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.600 to two and five two thousand per year. As we 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:04.800 get into twenty twenty five. In terms of units now 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.959 coming out, this is gonna be complex to build. It's 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.280 all gonna be built out of Austin. That's where the 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.880 launch will be today. But this is important because it 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:15.559 goes back to you know, something we've talked about in 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.280 the show. Lout is a refresh. There's just more categories. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.120 It's part of the Hello effect. Contrast at GM four 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:26.640 pulling back a little on evs, yet test A Musk 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:27.960 actually doubled down. 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.920 So I think Elon himself has even said Dan that 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.440 this kind of thing is, I guess in his opinion, 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.040 kind of a profitability disaster production disaster. It's so hard. 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:40.840 Can you make any money on this truck? Is there 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.800 any profitability in this truck? 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.400 Yeah, Paul, first twelve to eighteen months, no, I mean 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.680 they'll essentially lose money, will be cash on negative. But 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.080 as you get into twenty twenty five, it actually could 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:57.440 be pretty significant in terms of the accretive level. As 0:14:57.480 --> 0:15:01.120 it all plays out at scale now two thousand units. 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.600 We think that's pily max twenty twenty four, probably about 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.840 forty thousand in terms of what they ultimately deliver. But 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:10.400 this is all about next two to three years. It's 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.640 given them their other growth vehicle, and I think this 0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.520 is really the start of just the next fees of 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.960 the Tesla growth story. This is four years in the making. 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.400 In terms of today's launch, Dan tell. 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.600 Us a little bit more about the competition that the 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.760 cyber truck is going to be stacked up against. You think, 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.880 you know the Ford, you know F series, particularly the 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.120 F one fifty or that's the best side truck in America, 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.400 is a little bit fifty lightning. Yeah, so the electric 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.520 one there, sure, and then you've got the Ram, the Shelvy, 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.720 the Chevy Silverado. I mean, how is this. How's the 0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:45.840 cyber truck you think going to stack up against those? 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.040 Well, F one fifty, I mean, that's that's the target 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:51.800 on the back. I mean, they're really trying to go 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.520 for some sort of churn there. You look what Rithan's done. 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.040 The success now, they've had a lot of difficulty in 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:01.080 terms of building it out. In terms of success from 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.400 a demand perspective, you look at that opportunity, you look 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.320 at what received coming at a GM. Look, this is 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.040 really creating a new category. But it's par the hello fact. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.280 And I think the difference today four or five years ago, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.800 everyone kind of viewed it as Okay, Tesla, they're not 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:23.680 gonna be successful. Today there's not an auto manufacturer executive 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.480 around the world that won't be watching the event because 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:30.240 you can no longer just say that it's not gonna 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.200 be relevant. It's actually the opposite in terms of their 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.880 leading in terms of really innovation technology. 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:39.520 Hey, Dan, when when you speak with the folks at Tesla, 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:43.160 when you also speak to the other auto manufacturers, what 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.600 are they what's the thinking today about maybe the ultimate 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:50.360 demand curve for evs over the next five years. It 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.560 seems to have lost a little enthusiasm out there. 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:57.000 Yeah, I mean, look, I think it's no secret you've 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:02.600 definitely seen a moderation. But I think the view among 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.240 many in the industry is, Okay, let's say it doesn't 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.720 go to fifty to sixty percent penetration. Let's say it 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.960 goes to thirty forty percent penetration next five six years. 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:16.520 That's two trillion in terms of the amount of ultimately 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:20.199 opportunity out there in terms of electric vehicles, So you 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:24.000 continue to see aggressive push towards this. I think the 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.440 big thing it's price discovery. You're not gonna have eighty 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:29.879 ninety thousand. You need to be in that sweet spot 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.879 forty to fifty k. And that's what we're seeing in 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:36.040 terms of that price war that's played out well known 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:39.639 in terms of what's happening in China. It's really price discovery. 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:43.600 But finally we're seeing some sort of supply demand equilibrium. 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.800 But I don't really see a pulling back GM four 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.760 that's essentially UAW that really forced that hand to pull 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:52.480 back a little in terms of spending. 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.399 So speaking of the economics of this, this is a 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.359 tough time right now to be buying a car and 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.080 to be you know, persuaded and consumers that this is 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:03.760 the time to be getting really excited about that when 0:18:03.760 --> 0:18:05.920 you have auto loan rates as high as they are. 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.280 I mean, certainly the holidays, you know, big time to 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:11.240 roll out a lot of incentives on price and maybe 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.840 rates if you can. But what exactly is the pitch 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.919 right now to like financially that people might be getting 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:18.880 excited about this. 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.639 Well, the big thing too is tax credit. Tonight' expect 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.439 some more tax credit incentives as we go into twenty 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.760 four from Biden administration, because that's a key point. If 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:34.199 you go back historically what's called seventy eighty thousand, Now 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.000 you're getting some of these ed vehicles, especially for Tessa 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:40.280 Why and others thirty five forty thousand. When it's all 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:44.119 said and done here, you're going to have incentives. But 0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:46.920 no doubt because what we've seen from a rising rate 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:49.919 environment that's been a huge headwind that does start to 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.520 reverse in twenty four. That's why the comms get easier 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:56.600 in twenty four. And I do believe we are still 0:18:56.640 --> 0:18:58.919 going into what I view as a golden age pro 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.080 electric vehicle and I think that's why it's important today 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:06.240 for this event pricing. It's really gonna be a flext 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:08.280 muscles event from Musk and Tesla. 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:09.720 Uh Dan. 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.320 The stock Tesla's up ninety seven percent year to date, 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.879 clawing its way back to its all time high that 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.040 had a couple of years ago. You've been I would argue, 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:22.960 one of the biggest bulls on Tesla, on EV's in general, 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:26.080 and then by extension Elon Musk. How frustrating is it 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:30.280 for you to see yesterday, for example, another situation where 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.200