1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Last month, December twenty seventeen, marked the ten year anniversary 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: of an economic event that probably won't be celebrated anywhere. 3 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: It was the beginning of the deepest recession in the 4 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: United States since the Great Depression in the nineteen thirties. Now, 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: we know the economy was in pretty bad shape at 6 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: that time, thanks to the bursting of the housing bubble 7 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 1: and the early stages of the global financial crisis. But 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: how do we know that the recession began precisely in 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: December two thousand seven. Today we're going to talk about 10 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: the mysterious process that determines when recessions begin and when 11 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: they end. Welcome to our first Benchmark episode of eighteen. 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: I'm Scott landman and economics editor with Bloomberg News in Washington. 13 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: Now I'm Daniel Moss, economics writer and editor at Bloomberg 14 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: View in New York. So, and it's pretty commonly thought 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 1: that two quarters of declining g DP means that a 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: recession has begun. But that's not the case in the 17 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: United States, right, That's right. The US is really an outlier, 18 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: certainly in terms of major economies. What most people might 19 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: not know is when it comes to deciding when a 20 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: slump starts and ends, it's up to a small group 21 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: of elite professors from around the country who deliberate in 22 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: secret and then announced their decision to the world. It's 23 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 1: a little like waiting for the white smoke from the 24 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: Vatican chimney. It's also a lot like those monetary policy 25 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: meetings we cover all the time at Bloomberg, except this 26 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: group makes decisions about events that happened months even a 27 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: year before. In fact, when the recession began in December 28 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: two thousand seven, it wasn't until a full year later 29 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: that this committee announced that that was the actual date 30 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: when the recession officially began. So who are these people? Well, 31 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: our guest today can tell us all about that. His 32 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: name is Robert Hall, and he's a professor of economics 33 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: at Stanford University in California. He is also the chair 34 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau 35 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 1: of Economic Research, and that's the group that tells the 36 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: world when a US recession begins and ends. He's joining 37 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: us by phone here in Washington, where he's en route 38 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: to an annual meeting of economists in Philadelphia this weekend. Bob, 39 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us on benchmark. So, Bob, can you 40 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 1: give us a little history. First of all, how is 41 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: this committee formed and how did it become the accepted 42 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: arbiter of when recessions begin and end in the United States? Sure, well, 43 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: we have to go right back. The National Bureau was 44 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: created in starting the beginning of a great depression. It 45 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: took on this job itself just spontaneously to decide when 46 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: recessions began and ended. It has done someone informally until 47 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: when Martin Feldstein took over the National Bureau and appointed 48 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: me to chair this committee and kind of formalized the 49 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,959 Speaker 1: whole process. So, for example, we know, write an explanatory memo, 50 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: and that memo has made public at a certain time, 51 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: usually about a year after or maybe a year and 52 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: a half after the actual event. So and we've been 53 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: doing that consistently pretty much the same basis ever since. 54 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: And the name National Bureau of Economic Research sounds federal 55 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: in Nightsha. Does it have any relationship with the government. No, 56 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: not a formal relationship. Many people, for example, Feldstine himself 57 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: was Chamber of the Council of Economic Advisors. But the 58 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: National Bureau is a the inter university organization as a 59 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: governing body that universities contribute directors too, and it sponsors research, 60 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: and it sponsors many many conferences and publications. But it's 61 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: basically an academic organization based at universities. Now, how long 62 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: have you been on the Business Cycle Dating Committee and 63 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 1: been its chairman as well? What's wrong with the way 64 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: many countries do this, Bob? Where I'm from Australia and 65 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: it's by no means limited to Australia. It's easy to 66 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: tell when a recession arrives and ends because there's a 67 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: standard definition of two quarters of contraction in g d 68 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: P marks a recession. What's wrong with that definition? You know, 69 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 1: a lot of the time, there's nothing wrong with that. 70 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: If you look at our chronology, it frequently coincides with that. 71 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 1: There's some common sense to that idea. But we are 72 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: sensitive to certain possibilities have arisen. We've had to make 73 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: judgment calls. For example, if there's a pause in the 74 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: economy but it doesn't have the drama and depth of 75 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: what we would call a recession, but it lasts at 76 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 1: two quarters. So if we had it just a couple 77 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: of quarters where the economy contracted by less than a 78 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: percentage point, each probably wouldn't call that the recession. We 79 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: would just just included in whatever else was going on 80 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: at the time, either a contraction or expansion. So we're 81 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,919 Speaker 1: alert to that possibility. To be honest, it actually hasn't 82 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: arisen very dramatically, and you wouldn't go too far off 83 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: if you adopted that to quarter. We're not we're not 84 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: totally against it and saying it's totally false, but we 85 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: approached this was a little more nuanced, but you probably have. 86 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: You have more precise data in the United States, probably 87 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,559 Speaker 1: a richer data set than most countries in the world. 88 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: We have jobs data in this country that are available 89 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: on a on a very good level of detail. Does 90 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:49,679 Speaker 1: that help you pinpoint the month where business cycle peaks? Yes. Actually, 91 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 1: you mentioned one feature that is important, and that is 92 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: we do want to identify turning points in a particular month, 93 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: and the totality of GDP is available only on a 94 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: quarterly basis, so we'd like to fine tune our work, 95 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: and we do that using many different monthly series that 96 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 1: you mentioned employment, many of the components is output are 97 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: now measured on a monthly basis, even though the GDP 98 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: number itself is quarterly so we look at that too. 99 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: I guess this also gets to some of the challenges 100 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: that people have identified when it comes to measuring economic 101 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 1: well being purely on the basis of GDP. What else 102 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: do you look at, Bob Well, First of all, let's 103 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: be very clear that we don't claim to be measuring 104 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: the movements of social welfare, and that's an interesting, big topic. 105 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: But we deal with something we call economic activity, which 106 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: in particularly we mean market activity. We're focusing on the 107 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: amount of output that the economy produces and the number 108 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: of jobs that it delivers, but we don't try to 109 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: go beyond that and say that we're doing more than that. 110 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 1: So I think we should be very clear that those 111 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: more technical measures that we're dealing with. Of course, output 112 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: and jobs are very important. So people are very interested 113 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: by the way in the outcome of our deliberations. We're 114 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: doing something that they're interested in, even though we don't 115 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: say that it measures the totality of welfare. So let's 116 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: go back in time ten years ago. It's December two 117 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: thousand seven. We already know the economy is in fairly 118 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: bad shape at that time, could be in recession already. 119 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: But your committee isn't going to announce a decision until 120 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: about a year later on when the recession actually began. 121 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: What is your committee doing in that time to figure 122 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: it out? What kind of deliberations do you have? Can 123 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: you walk us through that at all? Well, the committee 124 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: the modern era has been based primarily on email. The 125 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: email attachment is the way we deliberate more than anything else. 126 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: And when it looks like the economies in some trouble, 127 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: as it did in late two thousand seven, then informally, 128 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: without necessarily convening something you should call a meeting, we 129 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: start trading data almost entirely through email. Then as things 130 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: come into sharper focus, we generally convene a meeting by 131 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: a conference call. And at that point we've all seen 132 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: each other's ideas about what's happening, and then we deliberate, 133 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: and then finally, usually a year to a year and 134 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: a half later, we have a meeting which actually decides 135 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: when the turning point occurred, the peak of activity, which, 136 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: as you say, we determined occurred in December of two 137 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: thousand seven, we write up a memo. The memo is 138 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: posted on the National Bureau website. It's released to it 139 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: Financial Press and usually as front page news. Well, are 140 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: you ever worried about the security of these email communications? 141 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 1: It's certainly something we thought about, is in the more 142 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: general context of making sure that we don't create opportunities 143 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: for people to break into the process. We use encrypted email, 144 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: and we use completely secure telephone calls, and the National 145 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: Bureau is a very good record of maintaining the records 146 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: of this process, which are done at National Bureau headquarters. 147 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 1: So it's a theoretical possibility. It certainly is not one 148 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: that's that's created any problem so far, and it's something 149 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: regarding against the future. And none of you, of course 150 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: strangers to each other, all to the way you see 151 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: the world. You've mentioned the American Economics Association meeting in Philadelphia. 152 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 1: You do all see each other around the traps, if 153 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 1: not there at the I m F World Bank and 154 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 1: other places. Right, sure, not to mention National Bureau conferences, 155 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: which are a very big part of the deal. Let's 156 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: talk a little bit more about the membership of the committee. 157 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I see some of the names on your committee, 158 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: like Martin Felts you've mentioned it. It looks to me 159 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: like an economic all star team. I mean, maybe the 160 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: names aren't widely known to the general public, but many 161 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: of them are our household names in the world of 162 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 1: academia economics departments. How do you go about picking the committee? 163 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: Is there any way I can be on it? I 164 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: know you have to have a track record as an 165 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: academic macro economist, as you have to specialize in the 166 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: study of the subject at hand, which is what happens 167 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: to have put unemployment in other other economy wide variables. 168 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: So we're looking very much at the economy wide movements, 169 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: and the subject of macroeconomics basically covers that. So everyone 170 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: you see here is recognized as a specialist in macroeconomics. 171 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: Are people beating down your door to get on the 172 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: committee or is it kind of accepted practice that you 173 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: come to them? Uh? No, we come to them exactly. Yeah. 174 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: It would be very unfortunate if somebody called me up, 175 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: or called up James Pitterbin said I want to be 176 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: on the committee. That would be That's just not the 177 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: way people behave They wait for us to call them. 178 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: So it is like a papal conclave. You know, I've 179 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: never thought about that, but yes, in that way, it's 180 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: not it's not quite as dramatic. You know, we don't 181 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: meet physically. No one would consider electing the pope on 182 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: the basis conference call. But that's the way we work, 183 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: an email conclave. That that sounds like something for the 184 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: modern era exactly, you know, going by the NBAS definition, 185 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: this current expansion, that worrying is starting to get pretty 186 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: long in the tooth historically. Yes, yes, you're absolutely right. 187 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: And without going into any of the committee's deliberations, which 188 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: we know you can't, are you seeing anything right now 189 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: in our current economic trajectory the United States that gives 190 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: you pause? Oh well, it's easy to think of things 191 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,319 Speaker 1: that give paused, but you know, it's very important to 192 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 1: understand that we don't operate on a forward looking basis. 193 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: So I guess one thing I can say is that 194 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: there's been no desire in the part of the committee 195 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: to start the process that I described. It's the committee 196 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: right now is everyone's watching. But the macroeconomic news has 197 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: been pretty good lately. And but you know, I would 198 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: have said the same thing at the beginning of two 199 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: thousand seven. So it's been surprising to me in my 200 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: role to see how quickly things change and they begin 201 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 1: to be concerns and then and then this process that 202 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 1: I described is set in motion. Is that because the 203 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: link between capital markets and what might be called the 204 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: real economy is ever closer and closer and closer. No, 205 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: I wouldn't say that, because you know, I've been doing 206 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: this job for a long time to quite a few cycles, 207 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: and I think the timing has remained pretty much the same. 208 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: The clouds can gather quite quickly, and I don't think 209 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: that's new. We didn't have a severe the previous severe 210 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: session before the one that began to do that, and 211 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: seven was in two it was almost as severe, and 212 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 1: it came on quite surprisingly quickly. So but you're right 213 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 1: that there is a close connection between financial events and 214 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: the onset of a recession. There's there's no doubt, I think, 215 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: in terms of the most analysts that the procession that 216 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: began at the end of two thousand seven was made 217 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: much worse the financial crisis that occurred in September two eight. 218 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: Speaking of financial events, or maybe fiscal events, we can't 219 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: let you go without asking you a question about a 220 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: major economics story. Just a couple of weeks ago, a 221 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: significant piece of tax legislation was signed into law economists 222 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: in general have said it might give a modest boost 223 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: to the economy in maybe a little bit in twenty nine, 224 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: but most people also agree that it'll significantly widened the 225 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: budget deficit and potentially raise economic risks. What's your take 226 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 1: on how this law will affect the economy and doesn't 227 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: raise the risk of a recession happening and say a 228 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: couple of years from now. Oh hard to say. I 229 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: think in my capacity is chairman of this committee, that's 230 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: not the type of thing we consider. We wait for 231 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: things to happen. We're definitely not in the forecasting business. Obviously, 232 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: I have another life as somebody who thinks about topics 233 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: like that. But as far as my representing this committee, 234 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: the thing for me to say is we're not in 235 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: the forecasting business or very much in the what happened 236 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: over the past previous year, not what's going to happen 237 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: next year. That's that's my job on the top of 238 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: the committee. Bob, thanks very much for being with us 239 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: today on Benchmark my pleasure. Benchmark will be back next week. 240 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg terminal, 241 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com or Bloomberg app as well as wherever 242 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: you enjoy podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, overcasting Stitcher. While you're there, 243 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: take a minute to rate and review the show so 244 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 1: more listeners can find us and let us know what 245 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: you thought of the show. You can follow me on 246 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: Twitter at at scott Landman Dan you're at Moss Underscore. Ka. 247 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: Bob isn't on Twitter, but you can follow releases from 248 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: the n B E r at at n B E 249 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: r R e L. Benchmark is produced by Topher Foreheads 250 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: and the head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesca Levy. Thanks 251 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: for listening, See you next time.