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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis

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Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the

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Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your

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Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: This is Daybreak Asia and we were reflecting a couple

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Speaker 1: of days ago about this blitz of economic stimulus unveiled

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Speaker 1: by the PBOC in China. Several key interest rates are

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Speaker 1: being lowered, the level of required bank capital being reduced,

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Speaker 1: so theoretically more lending as possible, and there will be

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Speaker 1: support for both the housing and equity markets. Seems to

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Speaker 1: be a pretty comprehensive plan. Will it be effective? Let's

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Speaker 1: take a closer look now with pay Chien Lu, Asia

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Speaker 1: economist at Fidelity International joining us from Singapore, and good

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Speaker 1: have you to be with us. Give me your assessment

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Speaker 1: on what the stimulus is about and how effective it

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Speaker 1: may be.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for having me today, Doug. And on the

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Speaker 3: China stimulus, yes, they delivered quite a bit of upside

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Speaker 3: surprise in terms of incremental easing, and I would expect

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Speaker 3: this package to overall lift the sentiment and on the

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Speaker 3: margin boost economic growth. And now more of the details.

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Speaker 3: I think there are elements of upside surprises in the package,

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Speaker 3: as I mentioned, but more in terms of how they

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Speaker 3: delivered the passage package, because previously they have all been

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Speaker 3: adopting a gradual incremental announcement approach, but now delivering multiple

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Speaker 3: easing policies at one goal will be one of the

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Speaker 3: supportive measures to support market sentiment. And on the property

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Speaker 3: sector easing specifically, I think that incremental easing is more

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Speaker 3: skewed what's supporting a household demand, So I think that

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Speaker 3: demand side stimulus is also picking up pace at this moment.

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Speaker 1: So when you look at the data, whether it's retail

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Speaker 1: sales or even the degree to which consumers in China

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Speaker 1: are stashing cash in their bank accounts, how would you

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Speaker 1: profile the Chinese consumer right now? Help me understand that. Now,

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Speaker 1: I know that that's kind of a broad category. There's

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Speaker 1: a range of incomes in involve different jurisdictions. Some people

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Speaker 1: live in the city, some do not. But generally speaking,

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Speaker 1: how are Chinese consumers feeling? As you understand it.

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Speaker 3: Yes, you're right. From our perspective, I think the consumer

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Speaker 3: sector is showing a lot of complexity in this round

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Speaker 3: of recovery. But there's two dissect that segment a little

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Speaker 3: bit more. There are a few key indicators that we're

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Speaker 3: looking at for from a macro level to assess the

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Speaker 3: consumer sector. So firstly, the consumer confidence index. I think

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Speaker 3: everybody knew that the pandemic has hard hit the household sector,

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Speaker 3: and consumer confidence index has been coming down sharply. But

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Speaker 3: at this moment on the path of recovery, we have

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Speaker 3: actually seen consumer sentiments stabilizing at low levels, so they're

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Speaker 3: not rebounding shortly. Neither did they deteriorate significantly from where

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Speaker 3: we are right now. I think the underlying reason for

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Speaker 3: that is perhaps because, as you mentioned earlier, the divergent

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Speaker 3: patterns of the consumption that's been emerging from both the

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Speaker 3: wealth impact on property sector as well as some of

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Speaker 3: the consumers might have been hurt by the employment pressure

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Speaker 3: as well as income growth. So overall, I think another

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Speaker 3: indicator we're also working out for closely is the pboc's

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Speaker 3: depositor survey. On that survey, we see divergence between depositors

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Speaker 3: preference oversaving, consumption and investment. We have observed wider divergence

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Speaker 3: between saving and investment, but surprisingly, I think the consumption

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Speaker 3: is more or less stabilizing, even though as the moderate levels,

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Speaker 3: but they are under gradual recovery pattern right now.

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Speaker 1: Well, you indicated a little bit about the labor market

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Speaker 1: in China, and one of the things that I've read

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Speaker 1: and I don't have firsthand experience here, is how massively

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Speaker 1: high the youth unemployment rate is. I think it's approaching

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Speaker 1: somewhere between fifteen and twenty percent. I know the government

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Speaker 1: stopped reporting it, maybe for good reason. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I'm not here to pass judgment on that. But if

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Speaker 1: you are looking for a way for the government to

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Speaker 1: re engage the youth in the overall economy, did you

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Speaker 1: hear anything in this stimulus plan unveiled in the past

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Speaker 1: week that would address that would address the problem with

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Speaker 1: youth unemployment.

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Speaker 3: Well, yes, I think they did announce something to support

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Speaker 3: the employment, but in a time targeted and incremental fashion. Still,

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Speaker 3: but I think overall, if we look at youth unemployment,

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Speaker 3: yes it does fait more challenges compared to the overall

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Speaker 3: employment situation. In China. But I think in terms for

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Speaker 3: us to see a more sustainable recovery, we also need

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Speaker 3: to see a more broad based recovery, especially in the

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Speaker 3: service sector which absorbs the bulk of employment. So on

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Speaker 3: that front, I think, yes, we do need to see

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Speaker 3: more policies address youth unemployment, but that easy policy could

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Speaker 3: come from more broad based way. So this week's incremental

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Speaker 3: triple r rate cuts, in our view, is one way

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Speaker 3: to lift the broad based sentiment of the economy BGN

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Speaker 3: very quickly.

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Speaker 1: The government that we are told is going to provide

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Speaker 1: one off cash handouts within the next week to disadvantage groups.

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Speaker 1: Your thoughts on that very quickly?

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Speaker 3: I think this is welcomed, but this is budgeted plans.

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Speaker 3: I think there are handouts to the extreme poverty group

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Speaker 3: and needed group every year, and this is just a

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Speaker 3: continuous handout of that finance subsidies of the ministry. But nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: I think it's supportive of consumption overall.

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Speaker 1: Pchn Lou, thank you so much for being with us

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Speaker 1: pchn Lou Economistic Fidelity International, helping us understand what we

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Speaker 1: heard in the last week and so far as this

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Speaker 1: massive stimulus plan that was unveiled by the PBOC. Many

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Speaker 1: different interest rates were cut and the requirement of a

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Speaker 1: level of bank capital was reduced as a way of

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Speaker 1: perhaps finding more lending that the economy clearly needs. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Let's update our top story. The mayor of

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Speaker 1: New York City, Eric Adams, has been indicted after a

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Speaker 1: federal corruption probe. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Laura Namas, who

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Speaker 1: joins us on the line from here in New York. Laura,

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Speaker 1: thanks for making time for us. I'm sure it's a

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Speaker 1: busy night for you. What do we know about the situation?

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Speaker 4: Well, we know that New York City Mayor Eric Adams,

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Speaker 4: the one hundred and tenth mayor of New York City

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Speaker 4: and the second black mayor in the city's four hundred

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Speaker 4: year history, has been indicted. We don't know what the

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Speaker 4: charges are. We don't know exactly when the indictment will

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Speaker 4: be unsealed. But a grand jury has indicted him, a

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Speaker 4: virtually unprecedented event in the history of America's largest city.

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Speaker 1: So that was going to be my question. It wasn't

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Speaker 1: clear to me when the news first broke that it

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Speaker 1: was a grand jury that had issued the indictment, but

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Speaker 1: that in fact has happened, right, that's.

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Speaker 4: Our understanding at this point. Obviously things are moving very quickly,

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Speaker 4: but we understand it's an indictment coming up from the

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Speaker 4: Southern District US Attorney's office US Attorney Damian Williams.

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Speaker 1: What type of investigation has taken place?

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Speaker 4: Well, we don't know. One of the unusual effects about

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Speaker 4: this is that we don't actually know which investigation this

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Speaker 4: is related to, because the mayor and some of his

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Speaker 4: senior administration officials have been the subject of at least

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Speaker 4: four different federal investigations that we know about, two of

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Speaker 4: which we learned of just this month. So this could

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Speaker 4: be related to any one of at least three that

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Speaker 4: we know we're being conducted out of the Southern District,

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Speaker 4: but we don't specifically know which one and anticipate that

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Speaker 4: we'll be learning more about that in the morning tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: So my question is on the extent to which we've

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Speaker 1: heard from the mayor himself after this news broke, Has

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Speaker 1: he made a statement.

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Speaker 4: He has, Indeed, he is disseminating this statement quote. I

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Speaker 4: always knew that if I stood my ground for New Yorkers,

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Speaker 4: that I would be at target, and a target I became.

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Speaker 4: If I am charged, I am innocent, and I will

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Speaker 4: fight this with every ounce of my strength and spirit.

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Speaker 4: End quote.

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Speaker 1: So you've told me that there are a number of investigations,

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Speaker 1: Can you just sketch out very briefly what we're dealing

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Speaker 1: with here?

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Speaker 4: Sure?

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Speaker 5: So.

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Speaker 4: The earliest investigation that we became aware of was a

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Speaker 4: probe that sort of burst into public view in November

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Speaker 4: of last year that appeared to be centering on potential

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Speaker 4: campaign finance violations in the mayor's twenty twenty one campaign,

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Speaker 4: the campaign that got him elected mayor, and whether or

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Speaker 4: not there was some interaction with the government of Turkey

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Speaker 4: potential straw donor scheme in exchange for doing things favorable

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Speaker 4: for the Turkish government. The contours of that are still

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Speaker 4: a little bit fuzzy. There's been summer reporting recently by

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Speaker 4: The New York Times and others that that probe had

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Speaker 4: expanded to include looking at campaign ties to other countries.

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Speaker 4: But that's most of what we know about that investigation

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Speaker 4: at this point. But two other investigations seem to be underway.

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Speaker 4: It's not clear if those actually are looking at the

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Speaker 4: mayor's conducts specifically, but they do seem to be looking

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Speaker 4: at the conduct of people who are incredibly close to him,

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Speaker 4: including the now former police Commissioner Edward Caban, who stepped

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Speaker 4: down just a couple of weeks ago after his phone

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Speaker 4: was seized by federal agents in connection with the potential

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Speaker 4: scheme involving his twin brother. Then, the third probe is

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Speaker 4: potentially looking at a consultancy run by the brother of

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Speaker 4: two brothers who serve in senior roles in the Adams administration,

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Speaker 4: School's chancellor David Banks and Deputy Mayor for Public Safety

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Speaker 4: Philip Banks. David Banks, the school's chancellor, announced just this

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Speaker 4: week that he intends to resign at the end of

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Speaker 4: this calendar year.

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Speaker 1: So from what I understand, the governor does have the

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Speaker 1: power to remove Mayor Adams from office very quickly. Here, Laura,

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Speaker 1: what do we know about the pressure that is building

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Speaker 1: on mister Adams to step down from office.

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Speaker 4: I think it is growing by the minute. My inbox

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Speaker 4: is filling up with statements from prominent Democrats. Listeners may

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Speaker 4: have seen or heard earlier today that Congresswoman Alexandria Ocssio Cortes, who,

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Speaker 4: to be fair, was not a supporter of the mayor's

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Speaker 4: campaign in twenty twenty one is calling on the mayor

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Speaker 4: to resign. At least two of his potential opponents in

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Speaker 4: next year's Democratic mayoral primary, Scott Stringer, the former city controller,

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Speaker 4: and Brooklyn State Senator Zelnor Marie have just issued calls

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Speaker 4: asking for him to step down, and so has John

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Speaker 4: lou a Queen State Senator.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we'll leave it there.

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Speaker 4: We've been a particularly fervent critic of the mayor.

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Speaker 1: Laura and Amias from Bloomberg News on Mayor Adams of

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Speaker 1: New York City being indicted. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: It's time now to get to our guest. Betty Wong

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Speaker 2: joins US lead economist for Northeast Asia at Oxford Economics.

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Speaker 2: We wanted to talk a little bit more about stimulus

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Speaker 2: in China, and we did have this rather unusual development, Betty,

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Speaker 2: which you don't see all that often in China, that

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Speaker 2: China will give out cash handouts now to people. This

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Speaker 2: is for the poorest among citizens in China. Has something

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Speaker 2: changed in China? Have they flipped the switch?

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Speaker 6: Well, yes, I think to some extent, at least from

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Speaker 6: the monetary policy front, there have been there has been

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Speaker 6: some change since the pangong Shun, the PBOC governor took charge. So,

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Speaker 6: as you said, the stimulus announced earlier this week actually

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Speaker 6: came at a much early and also volder than we

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Speaker 6: had expected in the sense of the size that they

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Speaker 6: offered to cut policy rate, the broadcasts in the reserve

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Speaker 6: requirement ratio, as well as the adjustment to the mortgage

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Speaker 6: lending and the support to the stock market. And what

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Speaker 6: is more, also significant this Panganshan sent a very dolwish

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Speaker 6: signal at the press conference when he announced the stimulus.

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Speaker 6: At the same time, he expressed policy willingness to provide

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Speaker 6: additional support in the future if needed, with specific measures

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Speaker 6: being mentioned. So I think this is something that has

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Speaker 6: been different from the pboc's behavior in the past. Betty.

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Speaker 1: As you know, the centiment on the mainland is exceptionally

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Speaker 1: weak right now. What is the best way? First of all,

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Speaker 1: let me ask you, how would you characterize what the

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Speaker 1: average Chinese person is feeling economically?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think that the sentiment is not as optimistic

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Speaker 6: as in the past. You know a few decades when

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Speaker 6: China just joined WTO and the economy was booming everywhere.

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Speaker 6: So now it's definitely it depends on which sector that

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Speaker 6: we're talking about and which part of the household group

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Speaker 6: that we're talking about. So yes, I think there's something

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Speaker 6: that Chinese postmakers will need to do to restore the

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Speaker 6: confidence not only for household but also for the private sector.

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Speaker 2: Betty, will the holiday next week be too soon to

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Speaker 2: perhaps see a change in behavior by consumers? What are

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Speaker 2: you expecting?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think that the cash handouts that you were

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Speaker 6: mentioned earlier at the program could be properly serving the

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Speaker 6: purpose of sort of you know, helping with the consumption

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Speaker 6: during the National Day holiday, which is a typical period

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Speaker 6: for Chinese households to go traveling and also spend some

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Speaker 6: money for the celebration. So yes, this is a near

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Speaker 6: term gauge for us to see if Chinese consumers are

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Speaker 6: able to you know, to utilize whatsoever the stimulus. But

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Speaker 6: I think, yes, it's too soon to tell that the

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Speaker 6: policy is effective or efficient enough to do that. And

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Speaker 6: actually our assessment on the policy stimulus which were announced

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Speaker 6: earlier this this week would be a bit minimal at

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Speaker 6: least on this year's growth outlook, and we still maintain

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Speaker 6: now four point eight percent to depict growth forecasts for

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Speaker 6: China for now, because I think it really depends on

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Speaker 6: you know, how the policy will be implemented or enforced,

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Speaker 6: and also it requires a coordinated or coordination from different

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Speaker 6: parts of postmakers in the future.

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Speaker 1: Betty, I'm wondering whether or not the biggest risk right now. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I understand that there is persistent weakness in the property market,

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Speaker 1: but the deflationary story is very troubling, and I'm wondering

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Speaker 1: whether policymakers in China have been studying diligently the history

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Speaker 1: of Japan and what Japan endured for three decades. Do

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Speaker 1: you think this is a part of the thinking right

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Speaker 1: now that they've been reluctant. I understand to add to

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Speaker 1: the debt pile, but something has to be done to

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Speaker 1: arrest this this deflationary trap.

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Speaker 6: Indeed, I think this is the biggest concern for me,

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Speaker 6: at least for now when talking about Chinese economy. And also,

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Speaker 6: as you said, there have been some you know, discussions

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Speaker 6: among Chinese postmakers in terms of whether China is exposed

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Speaker 6: to the similar situation that Japan experienced like twenty or

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Speaker 6: thirty years ago, you know, and even now Japan is

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Speaker 6: still fighting against the sort of deflationary risks, but just

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Speaker 6: I think so before this round, at least, there was

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Speaker 6: still some dissent descender saying that China is at a

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Speaker 6: different situation Japan, and which means that that stimulus might

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Speaker 6: not be needed at a very large scale. But I

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Speaker 6: think what the PBOC has done so far probably suggests

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Speaker 6: that there's a sort of a change in terms of

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Speaker 6: their thinking ways. And actually during the press conference earlier

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Speaker 6: this week, Pangoshan did mention about inflation, which is an

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Speaker 6: important factor for the PBOC for the Central Bank of

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Speaker 6: China to consider its monetary policy. And I do think

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Speaker 6: that the postmakers are getting increasing attention or paying increasing

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Speaker 6: attention to this inflationary deflationary risk in China.

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Speaker 1: Betty, last question, when you consider the fact that this

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Speaker 1: broad stimulus package that was unveiled in the last week

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Speaker 1: may function as a large stone that's been dropped into

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Speaker 1: the water, and I'm trying to understand now how the

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Speaker 1: ripple effects will reach other parts of Asia, particularly in

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Speaker 1: a country like South Korea, big trading partner. Same is

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Speaker 1: true for Japan. Looking at those equity markets performing very

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Speaker 1: strongly today, is that on the basis that this is

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Speaker 1: going to have a more widespread impact.

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Speaker 6: Well, I do think that, you know, the economic recurring

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Speaker 6: China will have a big impact on IS trading partners

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Speaker 6: not only in Nasia but also the rest of the world.

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Speaker 6: And this is also something that my colleagues are closely watching,

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Speaker 6: you know, for those who are covering Asian economists. But

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Speaker 6: for now, I think what will have to like separate

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Speaker 6: the near term like response from the market and also

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Speaker 6: the long term economic impact on the real economy. So

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Speaker 6: from what we've seen so far, the market reaction to

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Speaker 6: China stimulus have been relatively positive. If you look at

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Speaker 6: China's effects markets stock markets, I think yes, in terms

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Speaker 6: of a short term market sentiment has been boosted. But

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Speaker 6: what needs to be seeing is if this policy impact

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Speaker 6: will have a long long lasting impact on the abroad economy,

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Speaker 6: which is for now, we are a bit of cautures.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Betty, we'll leave it there. Thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for making time to share with us. Betty Wang, lead

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Speaker 1: economists for Northeast Asia at Oxford Economics, joining us on

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Speaker 1: the line from Singapore here on Dave Ray Kasha.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now on the program is John Davis, CEO

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Speaker 2: and CIO of Historia Portfolio advisors, John, what do you

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Speaker 2: think seasonally tough period, but maybe that offers up some

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Speaker 2: good opportunities in what otherwise might be a good environment

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we're entered into you know, election season here in

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Speaker 7: the US, but I think you know what's more important

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Speaker 7: is not like who becomes an ex president, but you know,

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Speaker 7: it's the economic cycle. You know, the set is about

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Speaker 7: to embark in a rate cut cycle. You know, we've

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Speaker 7: got a long way to go because we're starting at

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Speaker 7: five point we start a five point three three percent

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Speaker 7: and FED funds and you know, market is pricing a

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Speaker 7: couple hundred basis points. So historically, you know, in the

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Speaker 7: FED cuts, it's usually a new market cycle and new

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Speaker 7: market leadership. So I think it's time to rotate your portfolio.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to hear tomorrow from the Fed Shairman himself.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that he's going to guide the market

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Speaker 1: as he has recently into accepting the notion that the

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Speaker 1: FED is going to be fairly aggressive here.

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Speaker 7: I think it's going to be you know, more and

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Speaker 7: more about the next you know, non found payrolls, you know,

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Speaker 7: the higher frequency labor data. Joelt Household surveys and then

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Speaker 7: obviously any kind of growth data that comes into play.

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Speaker 7: You know, but the market, if you look at what's

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Speaker 7: led since last week, it's all the risky assets, right.

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Speaker 7: Bitcoin is up the most.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 7: Here we look at d XJ, which is a Japanese

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Speaker 7: exporter Exporters ETF that's hedged, that's up you know, four percent,

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Speaker 7: Bitcoins up five and a half, queues are up three

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Speaker 7: you know, spies up too, So you know, we're if

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Speaker 7: you look at M two velocity money, that's starting to

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Speaker 7: inflect higher. You know, China's cotton, you know, the Fed's cutting,

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Speaker 7: so we're kind of going back to like, you know,

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Speaker 7: easier you know conditions and you know, more looser monetary policy.

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Speaker 7: So I think it's a pretty good backdrop for risk assets. Again,

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Speaker 7: here in the States, we do have this election, so

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Speaker 7: some people don't want to really move before the elections,

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Speaker 7: but you know, I'm expecting there'll be a pretty decent

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Speaker 7: opportunity and away from the mag seven you know, November

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Speaker 7: December and for most of the next year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when I mentioned seasonal difficulties as more or less

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Speaker 2: referring to September October, but then coming into the end

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Speaker 2: of the year. I hadn't really factored the election. I think,

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Speaker 2: as you say, elections don't normally play a huge role

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Speaker 2: in markets. Although with the spending that both of these

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Speaker 2: candidates want to do, does that raise some other concerns

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Speaker 2: down the road.

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Speaker 7: It definitely does. I mean, I think that's why bigcoin

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Speaker 7: is up. I mean, obviously the ETFs there was a

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Speaker 7: lot of front front you know, loaded returns. But you know,

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Speaker 7: I think the bitcoin market, I mean, I look at gold,

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Speaker 7: golds is up twenty five percent. That's outperforming S and

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Speaker 7: P and gold is entering too, the period that it's

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Speaker 7: actually works the best, right when the FED cuts the

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Speaker 7: economy slow in. So I think, you know, the gold

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Speaker 7: and bitcoin guys are arguing and gals are arguing that,

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Speaker 7: you know, they're very worried about the deficit and this

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Speaker 7: you know, insatiable demand to just spend. So I would definitely,

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Speaker 7: you know, kind of hedge your portfolio risk with some

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Speaker 7: gold that we've we always own gold. We're very systematic

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Speaker 7: in our downside protection and you know, so we've liked

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Speaker 7: gold in the past and we you know, we really

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Speaker 7: like it right now.

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Speaker 1: We were talking a moment ago about Micron with a

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Speaker 1: revenue guidance here for the current quarter being way above estimates.

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Speaker 1: AI seems to be the dominant theme here. The stock

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Speaker 1: and lay trading just sort up fourteen percent plus. How

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Speaker 1: are you feeling about some of these AI related companies?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, and I'm glad you asked that. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 7: I don't think you should be on the way tech.

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Speaker 7: I think that even though the Max seven is expensive,

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Speaker 7: and even though you know, let's say they've had a

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Speaker 7: hiccup blade, you know, there's plenty of other you know,

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Speaker 7: growth stories in the US. There's plenty of the growth

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Speaker 7: stories within the technology space. So you know, we run

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Speaker 7: a strategy where we equally weigh our technology uh exposures.

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Speaker 7: We manage just e tip row wee kind of equally

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Speaker 7: weighed high quality stocks. So each of our tech stocks

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Speaker 7: get one percent weight and you know we track this

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Speaker 7: and P plus and minus, you know, a couple hundred

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Speaker 7: basis points. I think that's the way to go. I

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Speaker 7: don't think you want to be on the way tech.

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Speaker 7: AI is definitely, you know, a trend, and I think

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Speaker 7: that it's long term, you know, place you have to

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Speaker 7: be in for sure. I just think that's some of

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Speaker 7: those Navideo names and Microsoft, I think they just got

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Speaker 7: way too high. And it's obviously it's a lot of

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Speaker 7: large numbers. It's like how mature that can they grow

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Speaker 7: when you start at a two trillion, three trillion, you know?

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Speaker 2: Yeahcas well, well, some have fallen a long way, though

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Speaker 2: not so much in video, but it's I think still

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Speaker 2: down about ten percent or so from it's it's fifty

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Speaker 2: two week high. Micron we talked about that it was

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Speaker 2: over one fifty and it was strading at the closed

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Speaker 2: today at ninety five, So I mean it's been hammered

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Speaker 2: over the past. So maybe just maybe there are some

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Speaker 2: opportunities with really good companies with pretty good prospects going

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Speaker 2: forward that have been sold down.

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Speaker 7: Even in tech, yeah, I would agree with that. We

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Speaker 7: prefer more kind of diversified you know, ETF explorers, so

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Speaker 7: that's kind of our mantra. But I would rather own

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Speaker 7: a basket.

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Speaker 5: Of technology stocks as opposed to just you know the

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Speaker 5: seven you know, technology stocks. So I think there's just

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Speaker 5: so much more opportunities. I mean, if you look at

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Speaker 5: earnings estimates, they're projected to be higher from the S.

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Speaker 7: And P four ninety three compared to the MAC seven.

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Speaker 7: So again it's like just once you're in that upper echelon,

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Speaker 7: it's just hard to sustain the earnings growth. And that's

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Speaker 7: what's been happening, right The market has been broadening out

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Speaker 7: away from the MAC seven, you know, the last few months,

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Speaker 7: as we've you know, as the market kind of rotates

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Speaker 7: into the next cycle and as they discount the rate cuts.

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Speaker 1: Hey, John, before we let you go, i'd like you

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Speaker 1: to weigh in on opportunities that you're seeing offshore. You

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Speaker 1: mentioned Japan a moment ago. Anything else, Well, I think you.

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Speaker 7: Know China if you look at it, I mean it's

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Speaker 7: you know, they've rallied on you know, bad news. You know,

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Speaker 7: obviously they rallied a lot on the good news this

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Speaker 7: week where they're at leashing more liquidity. You know, I

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Speaker 7: do prefer India over China. But you know, when I

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Speaker 7: follow the ETF market, you start seeing you know, emerging

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Speaker 7: market X China ETF's launch and a gobble, you know,

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Speaker 7: billions of dollars. I mean, it's just crazy to me

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Speaker 7: to think that you know, emerging markets X trying. I mean,

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Speaker 7: China is what makes emerging markets. I don't care, you

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Speaker 7: know how good. The rest of the em markets are,

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00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 7: so I think you need China for you know, that

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00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 7: whole region of work, and you know, you kind of

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00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 7: do need the you know, for the rest of the

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00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 7: world to work, particularly Europe. So you know, we're global

440
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 7: investors were always going to be allocated across the world.

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00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 7: I've been on your show a bunch of times. You know,

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00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 7: here in the States, nobody really wants to invest outside

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00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 7: of these US markets. And you know, I remember I've

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00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 7: been in periods where emerging markets went up one hundred

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00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 7: percent over ten year period. I'm not saying that that's

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00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 7: going to be a case. I just don't think you

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00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 7: can ignore it.

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00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 2: And more well, you mentioned India. The sensex has gone

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00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: from sixty five thousand to eighty five thousand in a year,

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00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: so it's pretty ads like a thirty and thirty odd

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00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 2: percent gain. John, Thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: John Dave there CEO CIO of Estoria Portfolio Advisors.

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