1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: This is your host, JJ zach JJ Zacherson. What's up everyone. 2 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief over at number 3 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: fire dot com and this is episode thirty two of 4 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 1: the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that 5 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: are part of the number fire podcast network. Thanks for 6 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: tuning in. There have been debates happening on Twitter over 7 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: the last forty eight hours after a report came out 8 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: that said Le'Veon Bell was looking for not just top 9 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 1: running back money, but more than that, because, as we 10 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,559 Speaker 1: all know, he's sort of a receiver just as much 11 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 1: as he's a running back. The Steelers offered Bell over 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: twelve million dollars per year, and he declined the offer because, 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: and this is a quote from him, the running back 14 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: market definitely took a hit. And I can't be the 15 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 1: guy who continues to let it take a hit. We 16 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: do everything, we block, we run, we catch the ball. 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: Our value isn't where it needs to be. I'm taking 18 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: it upon myself to open up some eyes and show 19 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: the position is more valuable. Now. I get that Bell 20 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: in his agent are going to go into this situation 21 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: in an attempt to prove that the position he plays 22 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: is super valuable. It's no different than you, a project manager, 23 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: going to your boss and telling them that everything would 24 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: collapse to the company if the project manager position didn't exist. 25 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: The value of a running back at the NFL level, though, 26 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: is not as great as what Bell is making it 27 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: out to be. I won't reiterate everything I said on 28 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 1: the very first episode of the Late Round podcast. You 29 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: can go back and listen to that for yourself for 30 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: more detail, but there are numbers and numbers and numbers 31 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: that back the idea that running the football in today's 32 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: NFL is incredibly ineffective when you consider alternatives, you know, 33 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 1: like throwing the football, and the correlation to winning is 34 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: twice as strong via passing than it is rushing. Forget 35 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: all of that, though, Go listen to episode one if 36 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: you disagree with me or want stronger takes, because there 37 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: are stronger takes in that episode. What actually blew me 38 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: away when this news broke was how folks couldn't quite 39 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: comprehend the fact that being elite at your position doesn't 40 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: automatically make you a must need asset. I somewhat jokingly 41 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: tweeted but not really that the Steelers often was actually 42 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: really good with D'angela Williams when Le'Veon Bell's been out 43 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: over the last well over his career because he always 44 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: miss his time. It wasn't to say that I think 45 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: that Deangela Williams is the same caliber player as Le'Veon 46 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: Bell has been. It was to say that spending at 47 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: a position where you can see relatively decent replaceability makes 48 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: absolutely no sense. But then there were tweets like, but 49 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: can Diangela Williams do this with a gift of Le'Veon 50 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: Bell doing crazy things on a field? No, Di'angela Williams 51 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: can't do that, because Le'Veon Bell is one of the 52 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: best running back talents of this era. But that doesn't 53 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: mean he deserves more than the twelve plus million that 54 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 1: the Steelers were offering him. If that's the logic, If 55 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 1: the logic is that Bell is so so good and 56 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: talented at the running back position and it can't be 57 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: replicated by any other running back, then I guess we 58 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: can just use that same logic for Justin Tucker. Why 59 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: isn't Justin Tucker making fifteen million dollars per year because 60 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: he's a kicker, He's playing a position that doesn't impact 61 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: the game as much as say a quarterback. But guess what, 62 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: running Backs don't impact football games the way Le'Veon Bell 63 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: thinks that they do. This isn't to say that Le'Veon 64 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: isn't a dynamic player in one of the, if not 65 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: the best, at his position. I think that he is. 66 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: I've never seen a runner like Le'Veon Bell before, and 67 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: he adds a great element to the Steelers offense. The 68 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,920 Speaker 1: Steelers without Le'Veon Bell are not as good as the 69 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: Steelers with Le'Veon Bell. But at some point, just like 70 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: in fantasy football, we have to take a step back 71 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: and not look at how much better a player is 72 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: versus his peers, but what his positional value actually is. 73 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: And unfortunately for Bell, running backs are everywhere and the 74 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: position just doesn't matter as much as it used to 75 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: in the NFL. I'm sorry I had to get that 76 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: out of the way, But now that it is out 77 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: of the way, let's get to some of the mailbag 78 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: questions for this week's episode. This first one is an 79 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: email from Alex. He says, Hey, JJ, absolutely love the show, 80 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: my favorite podcast to listen to. Thank you, Alex. I'm 81 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: going a half point per reception keeper league where we 82 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: start one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, a 83 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: tight end, and two flex. I've got a great start 84 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: with Melvin Gordon, DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Rob 85 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: Gronkowski and DeVante Adams. Good Lord, Should I consider taking 86 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: Jordan Reed if he's there at my pick, so I 87 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: could use him as a flex and have him and Gronk? 88 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: Or would you recommend staying away and taking a running 89 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: back like Blall pal a Mira Abdullah or cj Anderson 90 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: Or targeting a wide receiver like Willie Sneed Dante Moncree 91 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: for Brandon Marshall. Thanks. So, questions like this often have 92 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: so many variables that I can't really answer them super directly. 93 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: For instance, I don't know who's going to be available 94 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: at your pick, and I don't know exactly what the 95 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: player pool looks like given the amount of keepers in 96 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: your league. With that being said, in most cases, I 97 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: would not target a tight end specifically to use in 98 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 1: the flex spot. But given the alternatives that you threw 99 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: out there, I can definitely understand the logic and drafting 100 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: Jordan Reid over say a Mir Abdullah. I would take 101 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: Red over a Mira Abdullah all day long. If you 102 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: look at what Reid did last season, or let's just 103 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 1: combine the last two seasons because those were his two 104 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: breakout years, you're looking at per game numbers of seven 105 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: point eight targets, five point eight eight receptions, sixty three 106 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: yards in point six five touchdowns per game. That's sixteen 107 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: point one two PPR points per game, or two hundred 108 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: and fifty seven points across an entire season. Those are 109 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: basically like Doug Baldwin numbers. But that's also an insane 110 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: ceiling that he more than likely won't reach reads a 111 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: concussion away from potentially not playing football again. Though that's 112 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: just a random opinion from a non doctor. I'm just 113 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: saying that his health report is frightening. But even if 114 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: you get twelve or thirteen games out of him, I 115 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: think he's fine as a top pick for your squad, 116 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: mostly because of that ceiling. And I should note your 117 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,040 Speaker 1: lineup is only starting two running backs and two wide receivers, 118 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: so the tight end position isn't as devalued as it 119 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: would be in say a three wide receiver league. Like 120 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: I said, I generally don't go for tight ends in 121 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: the flex almost never, but I can make a case 122 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: for Jordan Reid's upside, and since you have such an 123 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: absurd foundation at the other positions that you're keeping, and 124 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: since the alternatives outside of Red aren't that strong, I 125 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: think it's totally fine if you want to draft him. 126 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 1: This next one's from Nate Hamilton from Twitter at dominate ff. 127 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: He says, which players ADP have you most puzzled? One good, 128 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: one bad? I love this question, Nate, thanks for asking it. 129 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 1: On the bad end, or someone who I think is 130 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: vastly overrated, I'm gonna say Marshawn Lynch. Now. I did 131 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: actually draft marsha On Lynch in the scott Fish Bowl 132 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 1: just a week or two ago, but that league favors 133 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: running backs heavily. It's non PPR, and Lynch fell to 134 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: RB sixteen, where there was a clear drop off in 135 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: that format in my eyes, to the next group of backs. 136 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: I actually wanted Joe Mixon with that pick got sniped, 137 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 1: so I got marsha On Lynch on Fantasy Football Calculator, 138 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: though Lynch is listed as a late second rounder at 139 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: RB eleven for a guy who didn't play football last year, 140 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 1: was injured the year prior, and will be thirty one 141 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: next season. That's a hefty price tag. I do think 142 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 1: his ceiling is there, so don't take this the wrong way. 143 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: I can absolutely envision a scenario where Marshawn Lynch is 144 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: a top ten running back in fantasy football this season, 145 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: but I also think his floor is borderline frightening and 146 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 1: would much rather take someone like Isaiah Crowell, even Time 147 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: Montgomery or Joe Mixon in PPR formats over marshaw Ch. 148 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: I just don't know if he's going to see the 149 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: workload to warrant a second round selection. On the opposite end, 150 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: there are a lot of guys I don't really understand. 151 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: I just recently published an article on Number five that 152 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: talked through the thirteen guys who are most undervalued in 153 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: fantasy football this year, and I'll be doing a show 154 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: next week on some of them. But one player's ADP 155 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: I just don't get is Frank Gore. I mean, why not, 156 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: let's just stay with the running backs who take metamusel 157 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: each morning with their breakfast. I get it, Gore is 158 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: old af, but he's already sort of broken the age 159 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: curve at thirty three years of age. Last season, he 160 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: ran the ball two hundred and sixty three times, the 161 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: fifth highest total for any running back in that age 162 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: group ever, and he hit the one thousand yard mark, 163 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: becoming the third running back to do so at thirty 164 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: three years or older. And the dude was a high 165 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,679 Speaker 1: end RB two from a weekly perspective last season, guys 166 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: like Frank Gore was thirteenth in top twelve performances, eighth 167 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: and top eighteen performances, and eighth and top twenty four 168 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: performances at the running back position last year. I get 169 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: that everyone is searching for massive upside with each pick, 170 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: and that's also why he's dropped an ADP. It's not 171 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: just because of his age, but players like Frank Gore 172 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: are certainly still usable in fantasy football, especially if you 173 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: are picking a lot of boomer bust players and need 174 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: some sort of stability in your lineup. It's not as 175 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: though he's allergic to decent scoring weeks in an offense 176 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: is going to score a decent amount of points. So 177 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: those are the dudes. Marshawn Lynch is overrated, Frank Gore 178 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: is underrated. This next one's an email from Roman Perdziola. 179 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: He says, hey, JJ fellow Yinzer and pitt Alum here 180 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: hil To pitt just started listening to your pods and 181 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: I love you're straight to the point stat's driven approach 182 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: to a podcast. That's the industrial engineer in me talking. 183 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: They are breeze to comprehend given what you were doing 184 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: behind the scenes, and make my drives between Ohio and 185 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh much easier over the weekends. Thanks man. My question. 186 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: I know that PPR is becoming the prevalent scoring system 187 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: in fantasy ESPN made it a part of their primary 188 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: scoring system, and a lot of the resources I use 189 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: only discuss topics in terms of PPR. My league, however, 190 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: is half PPR. Is it safe to take advice for 191 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: PPR leagues and directly translate it to two point five PPR? 192 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: How would you handle this? Thanks for all your hard work, Roman. 193 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: As I like to preach, Roman, there's a lot of 194 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: variance in fantasy football. We're going to be wrong all 195 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: the time. I would guess, generally speaking, that someone's advice 196 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: on one player won't dramatically change in a PPR or 197 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: standard league. Because of that fact, there are certainly guys 198 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: that I perform more in PPR formats. Maybe someone like 199 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: Time Montgomery. But I think it's easier to note those 200 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: types of players rather than going through an exercise of 201 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: figuring out who's valuable and not depending on the format. 202 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: And obviously, if you're using projections, and if you have 203 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: a projected stat line, it's very easy to just adjust 204 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: your scoring. But I'm assuming that you don't, and since 205 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: the half PPR league, it's actually a nice medium, and 206 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: that you're going to know that any advice will moderately 207 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: suit your league type. It's a dumb answer, I know, 208 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: but I genuinely think that that's how you approach it, 209 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 1: if you're not going to go crazy deep into the 210 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: analysis yourself. This next one is from Ross Kidwell. He says, 211 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: am I crazy thinking Hoyer is a great draft day value. 212 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: He's free, he seems to produce fantasy every time he plays, 213 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: even on teams with bad players around him. Hoyer plus 214 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,199 Speaker 1: Shanny equals money. Well, Ross, I'd say that you're crazy 215 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: for two reasons. First, there's a lot of good usable 216 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: quarterbacks that go late, so there's really no need to 217 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: pinpoint Hoyer as a late round quarterback selection. And second, 218 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: that little equation of Hoyer plush Shanny equals money. Hoyer 219 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: plush Shanny equaled garbage the last time they were together. 220 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 1: I see why am I. Kyle Shanahan coached Brian Hoyer 221 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen with the Browns. That year, Cleveland threw 222 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:37,359 Speaker 1: twelve passing touchdowns. Hoyer had twelve touchdowns to thirteen interceptions, 223 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: with a two point seven touchdown rate. Back in twenty 224 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: fourteen with Kyle Shanahan. While I think Brian Hoyer is 225 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: a way better passer than most give him credit for, 226 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: and he will definitely be a usable streamer this year, 227 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: his floor is just amazingly low given his situation. The 228 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: forty nine ers offense is lacking tremendously. I wouldn't want 229 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: to associate my quarterback with those weapons. And remember, negative 230 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: games aren't a good thing for quarterbacks. The majority of 231 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: passers are better in positive scripts. Rich Rebard did a 232 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 1: great job explaining this in episode thirty two. So Hoyer 233 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: as a streamer, sure, we'll see as a guy that 234 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 1: I draft. Not a chance. This next one's from Joshua Jenkins, 235 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: he says JJ, hoping this question makes the cut since 236 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: we both go by JJ, I'll try to keep this concise. Yes, 237 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 1: it did, make the cut because we both go by 238 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: JJ in a league where we get to select our 239 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: draft slot based on random draw I was selected third, 240 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: so I'll potentially be able to pick as high as 241 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: pick number two, as number one was already claimed. At 242 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: which point would you consider drafting at the ten to 243 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 1: eleven turn and take back to back picks throughout the 244 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: draft rather than slot X. I'm personally not high on 245 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:44,839 Speaker 1: Zeke this year as a top three pick, and I'm 246 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: happy with any of the big three wide receivers. It 247 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: may even include aj Green as a fourth. If slot 248 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: two is available, I think it's a no brainer to 249 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 1: take Le'Veon Bell or David Johnson. But beyond that, I 250 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: think I'm okay going as low as seven if not 251 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: at the turn. Thanks. I'll be honest with you, guys. 252 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: I try to not care as much about first round 253 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: picks because there's way too much of an emphasis on 254 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: what to do with first rounders in the fantasy football industry. 255 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 1: So JJ, Josh, whatever you go by, I think you 256 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: can do what you feel most comfortable with. I agree 257 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: that the first two picks are the best, and I'm 258 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: certainly a lot lower on Zeke now that there could 259 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: be a suspension, I'd probably lean getting a top five 260 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: pick in order to lock in one of the big 261 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: three receivers if I don't get the number two pick, 262 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: which means I may select pick five if I don't 263 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: get the second pick, which would land me either Antonio Brown, 264 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: Odell Beckham or Julio Jones. But I'd also want third 265 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 1: overall if Zeke didn't get suspended, So depending on when 266 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: you decide, I'd keep an eye on the suspension talk. 267 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: Aside from that, I'd probably want to be closer to 268 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: the tail end of the first round and get one 269 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 1: of the backs in the McCoy A JII, Gordon tire 270 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 1: favoring Shady McCoy the most, and I'll get into more 271 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: of that later. I hope that kind of helps. But 272 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: with a lot of first round questions, I'll be honest 273 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: and say that I think you'll be able to answer 274 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: one like this just as well as I could, since 275 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: there really aren't that many decisions to make. This next 276 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: run is from Twitter at b scully one twenty one 277 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: twelve Team PPR Dynasty move evans for either t Y, Hilton, 278 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: Adams and Britt or Antonio Brown and Willie Snead. I'm 279 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: a contender with great running back depth. Other wide receivers 280 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: are Hopkins, Tate, Fits and Marshall. So in trades both 281 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: Redraft and Dynasty, I almost always try to obtain the 282 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: best asset in that trade. To you, it might be 283 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 1: Mike Evans, but to me, I'm still in on Antonio 284 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: Brown over Mike Evans and Dynasty. I know that sounds 285 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: crazy to some of you, given age in the fact 286 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: that Big Ben could retire any second now, while Jamis 287 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: Winston is a young buck, but Ap has shown elite consistency, 288 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 1: while Evans truly truly tailed off at the end of 289 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: last year when the Buccaneers started winning games. Last year 290 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: after their three and five start, Mike Evans dropped four 291 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: point two targets per game since they were more run heavy. 292 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: He averaged about seven fewer PPR points per contest compared 293 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: to the first half of the season, with more mouths 294 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: defeat in that offense. Even long term now, I don't 295 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: think Evans is as elite as some do. I also 296 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: play for all the time because money now is worth 297 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: more than money later, and given your a contender right now, 298 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: I'd definitely be down to take the ab and sneed 299 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: side of that trade. You can honestly start sneed too, 300 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,560 Speaker 1: giving your wide receiver options the stax One's an email 301 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: from Chris Conway JJ. Love your pod and all the 302 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: in season articles. Thanks man, Could you talk about trading 303 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: draft picks how to be successful doing so? I'm in 304 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: a ten team standard one keeper league and want to 305 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: trade for Brady, who is being kept by another owner 306 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: in the sixth round. Thanks again, Chris. First off, Chris, 307 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: what are you doing trading for a quarterback? Come on, man, 308 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: In all seriousness, I think the easiest way to think 309 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: about trading picks for players is pretty similar to the 310 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: way that I've talked about selecting keepers. You have to 311 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: look at market value. Brady's a fourth ish rounder or so, 312 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: so you'd technically be gaining equity if you get him 313 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: for let's say a sixth rounder. With that being said, 314 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: if that means you can't keep someone else since it's 315 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 1: a single keeper league, I'm not all for that, because 316 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: there's then a stronger opportunity cost in keeping Tom Brady, 317 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: you are foregoing the opportunity and keeping another player on 318 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: your roster who may have just as good a value. 319 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 1: So overall, and this is gonna be a short answer. 320 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: Using market value and adding a little bit of cushion 321 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: for opportunity cost is probably the easiest way to look 322 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: at things when you're trading draft picks. This next one's 323 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: an email from Sam Betts. He says, Hey, jj, I 324 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: enjoy your podcast and analysis. Keep up the great work. 325 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: Over the past two years, I've been streaming the hell 326 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: out of quarterbacks and tight ends. I look for them 327 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: late in the draft and stream them throughout the year 328 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: and it works well for me. That's great to hear. However, 329 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: last year I joined a new league that is a 330 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: twelve team league. It starts a quarterback, two running backs, 331 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: three wide receivers, tight end in a flex, and of 332 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: course a defense and a kicker. But this league has 333 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 1: a twenty two waiver wire limit, so I can only 334 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: do waiver transactions twenty two times and then I'm done. 335 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: Trades don't count against the limit. But I wasn't sure 336 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: on how to approach the season when it comes to 337 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: streaming quarterback and tight end. I ended up drafting Breeze 338 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 1: early last year, which I hated, and tried to do 339 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: my best with tight end throughout the year. I didn't 340 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: end up using the whole limit, but that's because I 341 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: wanted to be sure that I had some left at 342 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: the end of the season. What would you approach this league. 343 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: Would you still go late round quarterback and not worry 344 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: too much on the transaction limit, or maybe consider pulling 345 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: the trigger on quarterback and tight end a bit earlier 346 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: than usual. Thanks Sam. I think you can pull the 347 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: trigger a little bit earlier on those positions. But if 348 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: there's a decent amount of bench spots, I'm all for 349 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: drafting multiple players at those positions and then platooning them. 350 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: But really, there's just got to be a little more 351 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: planning involved here. You may at times be forced to 352 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: just hold two passers and play by matchup over the 353 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: course of a few weeks in order to maximize your 354 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: waiver moves, but at the same time, twenty two moves 355 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: isn't all that limiting. I've unfortunately seen worse out there, 356 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: which is annoying to me because the point of fantasy 357 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: football is to interact with folks and have fun, and 358 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: a great way to do that is to, you know, 359 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: have an active league. It's like saying, hey, guys, let's 360 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: play GoldenEye. But slappers only, please, Why would you not 361 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: want to use the golden gun? That was a bad analogy, 362 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: but I needed some nineties nostalgia in this episode. Overall, though, 363 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: don't be afraid to hold multiple quarterbacks throughout the season, 364 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: even though I typically will only hold one when there's 365 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: unlimited waiver moves. And sure, if you feel a little 366 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: bit more comfortable, draft a quarterback, maybe instead of the 367 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: eleventh or twelfth round, in the eighth or ninth round. 368 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 1: This next one is from Twitter at Fantasy Proof. What 369 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: sort of analysis has been done on effect of changing coordinators? 370 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: Anywhere you can find historical coaching staff, roster data, so 371 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of stuff done on coordinators in general, 372 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure about the overall team effect on 373 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: changing coordinators. I would guess it just plays into what 374 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 1: those coordinators like to do and what their tendencies are. 375 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 1: As for coaching data, Pro Football Reference has some info, 376 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: but you have to probably build a bit of a 377 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: database to get the full picture. But I also wanted 378 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: to use this time to talk about something that I 379 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: tweeted about a week or so ago. I tweeted I 380 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 1: analyze offensive coordinator data, but I think there's a lot 381 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 1: of confirmation bias involved when making it the core argument 382 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 1: for a player, and I sincerely, sincerely meant that offensive 383 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 1: coordinator data is another piece of the puzzle and it 384 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: can really really be useful, especially when you know the 385 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: coordinators who push their system on players no matter the person, 386 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: versus guys who alter their system based on the players 387 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: that they have. But with that being said, there's so 388 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: much confirmation bias that can happen with coordinator data. The 389 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan feeding his top receiver thing comes to mind. Well, 390 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: I think there are reasons to think it's somewhat factual. 391 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: What backs up the case is that Andre Johnson was 392 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: fed in Houston, then Santana Moss in twenty ten in 393 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: Washington when Shanahan was coordinating, then Pierre Garson had a 394 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 1: monster one hundred and eighty one target season in twenty thirteen, 395 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: and then Julio Jones won Ham in twenty fifteen with 396 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: over two hundred targets. But here's the thing, Andre Johnson 397 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: saw just as many targets without Kyle Shanahan as offensive 398 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 1: coordinator in Houston. Santana Moss's top competition in twenty ten 399 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: was Anthony Armstrong. Pierre Garson's best teammate was then a 400 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 1: thirty four year old Santana Moss with Washington in twenty thirteen, 401 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: and Julio Jones was competing with the corpse of Roddy 402 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 1: White and twenty fifteen for targets. There are reasons why 403 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: these guys saw the amount of looks that they saw. 404 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: There was no competition. And if this narrative is so true, 405 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 1: why when Kyle Shanahan was offensive coordinator in Cleveland in 406 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 1: twenty fourteen where the targets spread around. What about when 407 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: he was in Washington in twenty eleven and twenty twelve 408 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: where the top targets saw one hundred and fourteen targets 409 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: and seventy three targets respectively. And in that twenty twelve season, 410 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 1: if you want to blame that on injury to Pierre Garsan, 411 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: just know that if he did play a full season, 412 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: his pro rated target total was still just one hundred 413 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: and eight. Oh and, by the way, Julio Jones didn't 414 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: see the same game to game market show that he 415 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: did in twenty fifteen last year. Why because the Falcons 416 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,199 Speaker 1: had more pass catchers. This is why coordinator data can 417 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 1: get you into trouble. I like using it to think 418 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: about how teams may perform or how often they may 419 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 1: try to run versus pass, but I also try to 420 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: not fall into the positional traps like the Kyle Shanahan 421 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 1: top receiver one. This last question is from Charlie Nunn. 422 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 1: He says, hi, JJ, I'm sitting at the eighth overall 423 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,959 Speaker 1: pick in a ten team league draft half PPR and 424 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 1: find myself leaning running back because most round two running 425 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,400 Speaker 1: backs are being kept and the supply is much less 426 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 1: than normal. Rankings indicate I should take Shady or Melvin Gordon, 427 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: but my gut says to take Devonte Freeman. Can you 428 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: please elaborate on your pick decision and or our rankings 429 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 1: process between these three guys. Thanks a ton, Charlie. So, Charlie, 430 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: I would lean Lashawan McCoy in this scenario, and here's why. 431 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: Of the three guys you mentioned, I've got Shady getting 432 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: the most carries, beating Melvin Gordon by five. Freeman's obviously 433 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 1: not in a spot to see a massive amount of 434 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: touches with Tevin Coleman in that backfield. You saw him 435 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: with two hundred and twenty seven last year and from 436 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: a projection standpoint, McCoy and Gordon are both far ahead 437 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: of a guy like DeVonta Freeman. Now, each of these 438 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: guys scored more rushing touchdowns than they should have last 439 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 1: year if you look at it from a carries per 440 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: touchdown or rushing yards per touchdown perspective. But a big 441 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: reason to not favor Freeman over those dudes is overall 442 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: offensive regression. Freeman was fifth in the NFL and carries 443 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 1: within the opponent's five yard line last season because of 444 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: all those opportunities, despite the fact that the players ahead 445 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: of him, except Matt Asciata, who's a goal line specialist, 446 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: saw two hundred and fifty plus attempts, meaning there's a 447 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: higher probability of having those chances. Basically, with Tevin Coleman 448 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: in the backfield, a new coordinator in natural regression coming 449 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,040 Speaker 1: for the Atlanta offense, I can't confidently tell you that 450 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 1: Freeman will see as good of opportunity as Melvin Gordon 451 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 1: and Lashaw McCoy. So then it comes down to Melvin 452 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 1: Gordon and la Shaw McCoy. My model leans Shady's way, 453 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: and I definitely think it's the less risky proposition. Melvin 454 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: Gordon was fortunate last year and actually might not be 455 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 1: a great running back overall. He had a decent enough 456 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: efficiency rate according to number fire Metrics, but his success rate, 457 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: or the percentage of positive expected points runs made by 458 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: a back, was really really low. That tells us that 459 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: he made a living on the bigger, higher impact plays 460 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: because he wasn't getting that efficiency consistently. That's why in 461 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 1: an article I did over on number five, I mentioned 462 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: that if we're looking for this year's Todd Gurley between 463 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon, JJI, and Jordan Howard, I would actually lean 464 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon being that guy. The difference though, between Melvin 465 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: Gordon and Todd Gurley is that Melvin Gordon's offense is 466 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: far far better than Gurley's. So I still think that 467 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: he's a top draft pick because of the potential to 468 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: score and have positive game scripts. I still think Melvin 469 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: Gordon is a late first early second round pick in fantasy. 470 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: But McCoy just doesn't have these concerns. He's done this 471 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 1: for years. He's got a great offensive line with a 472 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 1: running quarterback, and the backfield is mostly to himself. So 473 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 1: in your scenario, I don't think I would be ballsy 474 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: enough to pull the trigger on Freeman. I think Gordon's 475 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: range of outcomes includes big disappointment because he might not 476 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,679 Speaker 1: be as good as we think, and that leaves the 477 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: boring pick LaShaun McCoy that I'll do it for this 478 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: week's show, though, Everyone make sure you're subscribed on iTunes, Stitcher, SoundCloud, 479 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: and Google places that you don't miss another one, because 480 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 1: the season is getting closer and closer. And if you're 481 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: on iTunes, please please please do me a favor, leave 482 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: a rating, write a review. It would be greatly appreciated. 483 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 1: Next week, I'll be doing a show that looks more 484 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 1: specifically at this season and some undervalued players, so it'll 485 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: be less of an evergreen show like some of the 486 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: other ones that I've done this offseason, and I'll be 487 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: honest that'll probably be more or less the norm moving 488 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: forward with this show until the end of the season. 489 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: I'll dig into specific topics still because that's what this 490 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: podcast is all about, but I'm going to be making 491 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: those topics more player centric and about this specific season 492 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 1: to help you all dominate your drafts once August hits. 493 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: As always, I'll keep doing these mailbag shows each Friday, 494 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: so keep hitting me up with questions, either on Twitter 495 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 1: at late ROUNDQB or via email at jj at number 496 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 1: fire dot com. Thanks for listening to everyone. I'll talk 497 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: to you next week.