Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On,
Speaker 1: and I don't see any reason to think that we
Speaker 1: will have a serious recession. When the recession hits, which
Speaker 1: will be event, Demarcot will find the bottom Floomberg sound
Speaker 1: On Politics, Policy and perspective from DC's top names. This
Speaker 1: legislation Israel progress. The more has to be done. He's
Speaker 1: going to Saudi Arabia to esk for ail. He didn't
Speaker 1: like Saudi Arabia. I did. I always like to. I
Speaker 1: am a mama grizzly and I'll rear up on my
Speaker 1: hind legs where somebody comes after my put Bloomberg Sound
Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Most Democrats do
Speaker 1: not want Joe Biden to run for re election, so
Speaker 1: says The New York Times. Welcome to the fastest hour
Speaker 1: in politics. As talk about a possible recession grows louder
Speaker 1: and more than six Democrats tell posters they want a
Speaker 1: new face in the White House. We talk about the
Speaker 1: communications strategy and the historic headwinds facing the Biden agenda.
Speaker 1: Coming up with Jane Hall, political science professor at American University.
Speaker 1: Later one of the biggest economic stories that no one
Speaker 1: is talking about Obamacare. Subsidies expire at the end of
Speaker 1: the year and Democrats may not be able to prevent it.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about it with the architect of the Affordable
Speaker 1: Care Act, Professor John Gruber of m I T and
Speaker 1: our signature panel in place here on a Monday, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Schanzano are with US
Speaker 1: President Biden speaking to the benefits of bipartisanship today in
Speaker 1: a sunny White House ceremony to celebrate the gun safety
Speaker 1: legislation that past weeks ago. Here he is on the
Speaker 1: south lawn. Make no mistake about it. This legislation israel progress,
Speaker 1: but more has to be done. The provision of this
Speaker 1: new legislation is gonna save lives. It's true that today's politics,
Speaker 1: we can come together on a bipartisan base to get
Speaker 1: the basics to get important things done, even on an
Speaker 1: issue is office guns. While on the other side of
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Avenue, Democrats and Republicans arguing over a reconciliation bill,
Speaker 1: Senator Chuck Schumer is pushing by the way, Schumer testing
Speaker 1: positive for COVID last night, even as that bill this
Speaker 1: Reconciliation Bill, build back Better Light, as I've been calling it,
Speaker 1: threatens to derail the China Competes legislation that includes the
Speaker 1: CHIP AC. We've got these two things. Democrats want them
Speaker 1: both passed. Mitch McConnell, though he says no to reconciliation.
Speaker 1: You guys do that. I'm out on the Chip deal.
Speaker 1: Commerce Secretary Genet Romando telling Bloomberg today the Chip Act,
Speaker 1: that China Competes Act, you sicco whatever you want to
Speaker 1: call it. It's got about fifty different names, will pass.
Speaker 1: Despite what you've been hearing. This just a day after
Speaker 1: she told ABC News that the US is not going
Speaker 1: into a recession. Here she is. I do think at
Speaker 1: some point, you know, we will see a less rapid
Speaker 1: growth in the economy. But I don't see any reason
Speaker 1: to think that we will have a serious recession. Will
Speaker 1: not have a serious recession. A lot of people do
Speaker 1: think we are As a matter of fact, Lee Cooperman
Speaker 1: is one of them. He told Bloomberg today that a
Speaker 1: recession is coming, not this year, but next not a
Speaker 1: great recipe for November. And when we talk later on
Speaker 1: this hour with Jonathan Gruber, will add another iron to
Speaker 1: the fire here with the prospect of Obamacare subsidies expiring
Speaker 1: by the end of the year. Now, a new poll
Speaker 1: from the New York Times at Siena College find six
Speaker 1: Democratic voters would prefer a different nominee than Joe Biden. Now,
Speaker 1: we've got a long way to go before but this
Speaker 1: is not the headline the White House wanted today. The
Speaker 1: president in this poll, I had to double check. This
Speaker 1: has a thirty three percent job approval rating. Now is
Speaker 1: this all about inflation or does this White House have
Speaker 1: a major messaging problem? We talked about it right now
Speaker 1: with Jane Hall, political science professor in the Community Asian
Speaker 1: School at American University here in Washington, author of the
Speaker 1: new book Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions. Jane,
Speaker 1: thank you for being here. When you see a thirty
Speaker 1: three approval rating, has the White House lost the narrative?
Speaker 1: I think that they have a very difficult task ahead
Speaker 1: of him and them. They did initially have trouble getting
Speaker 1: credit for a lot of the legislation that he got
Speaker 1: through early on that were pieces of legislation that helped
Speaker 1: the American people through covid um. The job's report is
Speaker 1: very strong, but people are concerned about inflation, and people
Speaker 1: are concerned about a coming recession possibility. I mean, it
Speaker 1: couldn't being more uh stark in the sense that, Um,
Speaker 1: he is facing a challenge from progressives to his left
Speaker 1: saying they want him to do more on guns. So
Speaker 1: he's just touting a new bi but a lot of
Speaker 1: people feel it should include a ban on assault weapon,
Speaker 1: including some of the families that were involved in this legislation. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, he was interrupted today. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you saw this on the South Lawn Man Well Oliver
Speaker 1: interrupted the the event. This is, of course, father of
Speaker 1: one of the Parkland victims. He was disgusted. He showed
Speaker 1: up there just to yell at the president and told
Speaker 1: the Miami Herald after that this whole thing was the
Speaker 1: event itself was a bad idea. Um, this is a
Speaker 1: president that can't seem to win at the moment as
Speaker 1: he prepares to go abroad to Saudi Arabia, that's going
Speaker 1: to upset both progressives who think that he's you know,
Speaker 1: forgetting the human rights record they're not acknowledging it and
Speaker 1: Republicans who wanted to drill more here Jane. So he
Speaker 1: literally can't win it's it's really he is. And if
Speaker 1: we say in the South Cat between the rock and
Speaker 1: a hard play, I mean he is facing people who
Speaker 1: are concerned in his party over what they see as
Speaker 1: a two tepid risk once to the Supreme Court decisions
Speaker 1: on abortion, on the environment, to what a lot of
Speaker 1: people on his side of the ledger UH are concerned
Speaker 1: about is a route UH in Congress in the mid
Speaker 1: term elections. I mean, Uh, this would not be unprecedented,
Speaker 1: of course for a president and his party to lose
Speaker 1: UH feats after being elected in a mid term. But
Speaker 1: the Republicans are so well organized and and so well
Speaker 1: there's a lot of enthusiasm on their side for what
Speaker 1: I think of his more cultural issues. UH, and a
Speaker 1: lot of people are saying that they want a Biden
Speaker 1: administration to take the lead. UM. And he's got a
Speaker 1: very very difficult situation. He is a man who is
Speaker 1: seeped in bipartisanship, still speaks of his Republican friends, and Um,
Speaker 1: he's not. He's not. Even when he makes a very
Speaker 1: forceful statement about gun control right after a mass shooting,
Speaker 1: right after you bald Um, there's still people who think
Speaker 1: including that that man whose child was killed. It's not enough,
Speaker 1: need to do more. You shouldn't be congratulating yourself. I
Speaker 1: think we're in a very unusual situation also in terms
Speaker 1: of our media environment. Joe. Well, that's what I want
Speaker 1: to talk to you about. Absolutely. Now, you've covered a
Speaker 1: number a number of as a newsperson. As a journalist,
Speaker 1: you covered a number of administrations. You've seen the malaise.
Speaker 1: I hate to always use that word because everybody says
Speaker 1: Jimmy Carter, but this kind of, you know, this difficult
Speaker 1: historical period as you go into the mid terms following
Speaker 1: the election of a new president not so new at
Speaker 1: this point. But how much of this is the responsibility
Speaker 1: of the communications office? How much of this actually is
Speaker 1: the messaging, the lack of victory lap or whatever it
Speaker 1: is that you want to call it. When you look
Speaker 1: at this New York Times pole, something is off here.
Speaker 1: Because you started our conversation talking about, uh, some of
Speaker 1: the major accomplishments. Nobody even remembers the infrastructure bill at
Speaker 1: this point that was supposed to be historic. Jane. How
Speaker 1: much of this is the story then that the White
Speaker 1: House is telling? I think I think initially their messaging
Speaker 1: was not good and I had a journalist tell me
Speaker 1: that they that they thought to Biden administration expected them
Speaker 1: to be more favorable. And I think that people were
Speaker 1: determined to prove they were they were going to be
Speaker 1: as tough on Biden as they were on Trump. I
Speaker 1: happen to believe that's true. But I think that now
Speaker 1: we're in a situation where half the country's not paying
Speaker 1: attention to the very serious allegations against Donald Trump, with
Speaker 1: a Congressional committee hearings not being watched by people who
Speaker 1: watch box news and being watched by other people. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, he there's a lot that he can point to.
Speaker 1: There's a long time between now and I think that
Speaker 1: Another concern is a generational one. You know, whom do
Speaker 1: they have on the bench? Uh, if it's not Biden,
Speaker 1: you know, whom did they have to run? And what
Speaker 1: will they do in you know, will my students come
Speaker 1: out to vote? And how will they vote in twenty two?
Speaker 1: How will they come out to in November? Sorry, you know,
Speaker 1: how will they come out? Will they come out? When
Speaker 1: you speak to a lot of young people, they are
Speaker 1: very disturbed by the state of the world, and you
Speaker 1: can't blame them, you know, that's right. And President Biden
Speaker 1: seems to think that there'll be a female revolution at
Speaker 1: the polls and and and maybe the pollsters aren't capturing
Speaker 1: that right now. But you're the one who grabbed onto inflation.
Speaker 1: And that's what everyone seems to agree, is the fact.
Speaker 1: The driving principle here what people will carry into the
Speaker 1: voting booth with them, which doesn't leave a lot. My gosh,
Speaker 1: so what if they get this Reconciliation bill or maybe
Speaker 1: the Chips Act happens. Some CEOs are happy about that.
Speaker 1: Wall Street likes that, but people aren't talking about Yuseka
Speaker 1: around the dinner table. Jane, Well, you're you're right there
Speaker 1: not And I think it's up to the Democrats and
Speaker 1: the Biden administration to find ways to better count you know,
Speaker 1: the jobs report. Uh. I mean, when you're dealing with
Speaker 1: fear of what might happen psychologically, that is a pretty
Speaker 1: powerful thing. As opposed to, hey, look what we've just
Speaker 1: done for you. They have to somehow say this is
Speaker 1: what we've done for you. We're on it regarding inflation,
Speaker 1: We're doing the right moves. And you know, somehow he's
Speaker 1: getting blamed and the Republicans are blaming him, So if
Speaker 1: they don't find a way to tout their own achievements
Speaker 1: and also to capitalize on what is a lot of
Speaker 1: anger in this country among women over the over the
Speaker 1: abortion ruling. That's where I think a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of the Democratic operatives are hoping that this can
Speaker 1: be something people will come out and vote on. But
Speaker 1: if but Biden struggling, I think to find his way
Speaker 1: on on what he's going to do about that? What
Speaker 1: can you do what will make a difference? When you
Speaker 1: look at this pole, you see Democratic voters this again
Speaker 1: New York Times prefer a different nominee in twenty four.
Speaker 1: I'm curious for your view on this. You see sometimes
Speaker 1: how poles evolve through an election cycle. This sort of
Speaker 1: generic test that we're doing at this stage of the game.
Speaker 1: What if it's Biden versus Trump. What if there's a
Speaker 1: name on the other side of the gene? How does
Speaker 1: that change people's feelings? Oh? That totally changes people feelings.
Speaker 1: If you know, when when it's somebody against nobody, that's
Speaker 1: a different story. Um, when you have a poll that
Speaker 1: that that puts Donald Trump in four against Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: then I think you you know the polling is showing
Speaker 1: that that Biden would would beat Trump. I think what
Speaker 1: you're seeing now is people trying to figure out what
Speaker 1: about his age, how this factor is that? But it's
Speaker 1: a factor for both of them. Right? Are we going
Speaker 1: to relive the last election? Are we doing this again?
Speaker 1: I hope not. I mean, you know again, I think
Speaker 1: of my students. You know, I heard um aoc talk
Speaker 1: on one of the talk shows a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: ago about what she thought was the need for new
Speaker 1: veathor was a delicate way of saying, that's right. Amtrak, Joe,
Speaker 1: it's a one way ride home. I don't know. We'll
Speaker 1: see Jane. I'm glad you could come in. I've been
Speaker 1: looking forward to the conversation Jane Hall with this American
Speaker 1: University of the book Politics and the Media Intersections, New Directions,
Speaker 1: and we assemble our panel. Next to pick up right
Speaker 1: here with Rick Davis and Jeanie Chanzano on the Fastest
Speaker 1: Hour in Politics. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: The White House says again the economy is not going
Speaker 1: into a recession at least not a bad one, and
Speaker 1: there's always a chance of that. Wall Street seems to
Speaker 1: think differently, as articulated by legendary investor Leon Cooperman, chair
Speaker 1: of Omega Advisers. He was on Bloomberg Surveillance talking about
Speaker 1: this this morning. Give him a listen. I think that
Speaker 1: ultimately the price of oil, or the FED or maybe
Speaker 1: the strong dolla, we'll lead us into a reset, Shan.
Speaker 1: And when the recession hits, which will be event when
Speaker 1: it is that, the market will find the bottom somewhere
Speaker 1: between thirty below it's peak. So next year worse than
Speaker 1: this year? What does that mean for twenty four Let's
Speaker 1: assemble the panel, Rick Davis, Jeannie Chanzano with us here
Speaker 1: on the Monday edition or signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors
Speaker 1: on sound on. Is what I meant to say, Jeannie,
Speaker 1: We've got some trouble here. If that's the case, people
Speaker 1: are feeling the impact of inflation now and we'd see
Speaker 1: the results, according to Lee Cooperman, by next year in
Speaker 1: the form of a recession. Of course, some people think
Speaker 1: we are already in one. The Governor of New Hampshire
Speaker 1: over the weekend on the Sunday talk shows was calling
Speaker 1: for the firing of Janet Yellen for misleading the American people.
Speaker 1: The messaging again seems to come back into our conversation
Speaker 1: on an almost daily basis. What does the White House
Speaker 1: need to be saying about it? You know, they need
Speaker 1: to be addressing it head on. And you know, we
Speaker 1: heard Sonno, as you mentioned over the weekend. You know,
Speaker 1: it is astonishing to me because when the job numbers
Speaker 1: came out, Oh what was that Friday, what we were
Speaker 1: told in a you know, briefly in the minute that
Speaker 1: Joe Biden talked about them was this eased recession fears.
Speaker 1: And yet over the weekend, Gina Romando aside, there was
Speaker 1: this drumbeat that that's not the case. And so you know,
Speaker 1: they need to come out and address this, and they
Speaker 1: need to stop stepping on their own good messages. And
Speaker 1: I'll give you another one. Gas prices, gas prices, gas prices,
Speaker 1: oil prices going down. Why aren't they talking more about that?
Speaker 1: So they've got to do that. And you know I
Speaker 1: said on Friday, they should not have melded this the
Speaker 1: EO with the jobs numbers. They should have done both
Speaker 1: if they could have. Yeah, the Roe v Wade the
Speaker 1: job speech, because that does muddy the waters there. And
Speaker 1: the one thing I heard, I will tell you from
Speaker 1: progressives through today was they didn't listen to a word
Speaker 1: about the jobs. All I heard was the President say
Speaker 1: go vote, and that annoyed them, you know, and annoyed
Speaker 1: as a kind way of saying how they felt about
Speaker 1: that message. Rick, You you've spent a career advising politicians
Speaker 1: sometimes when they were not doing well. Is it time
Speaker 1: for like a victory parade down Pennsylvania Avenue to draw
Speaker 1: people's attention to what has happened? Well, I'm not exactly
Speaker 1: sure declaring victory at this stage is going to actually
Speaker 1: reconnect Joe Biden with the American people. You've got all
Speaker 1: the jobs back that were lost in COVID. Isn't that
Speaker 1: at least in it self worth something? I think it is. Uh,
Speaker 1: this administration has chosen to sort of, you know, kick
Speaker 1: it to the curb. As Jeanie said, they spent more
Speaker 1: time frankly, talking about abortion than the just success of
Speaker 1: their jobs initiatives. Um, but the problem is you're in
Speaker 1: this weird pinch, right because in order to ensure that
Speaker 1: we don't have a recession, joblessness has to go up.
Speaker 1: Our our dear friend Larry Summers talks about the sacrifice
Speaker 1: ratio and we need to lose ten million jobs in
Speaker 1: order to stop from having a recession and calls pal
Speaker 1: to optimistic. So, I mean, we're in a very strange
Speaker 1: environment where success is failure and failure would be success.
Speaker 1: Uh More, unemployment will encourage us not to go into recession.
Speaker 1: And so uh the minute Joe Biden goes out there,
Speaker 1: his own team is saying things that are sort of
Speaker 1: the antithesis of declaring success on the jobs front. We
Speaker 1: had kind of the opposite today, the President of the
Speaker 1: South lawn to celebrate the new gun safety bill. Uh
Speaker 1: it was a huge ceremony, my goodness. Half of Capitol
Speaker 1: Hill was there along with stakeholders, along with victims of
Speaker 1: family members from from mass shootings. And one of them
Speaker 1: showed up talked about this briefly with Jane Hall to
Speaker 1: heckle the president to stand up and interrupt this event.
Speaker 1: That's Manuel Oliver, the father one of the students killed
Speaker 1: at the march Stoneman Douglas High School. He is now
Speaker 1: an activist. Of course, I want you to listen to
Speaker 1: hear President Biden's gonna be talking about the signing of
Speaker 1: this bill, and you'll hear what happens from there. Today's
Speaker 1: many things. It's proof that despite the naysayers, we can
Speaker 1: make meaningful progress. I'm dealing with gun violence because make
Speaker 1: no mistake, sad down, you'll hear what I have to say.
Speaker 1: If you think Manuel Oliver now stands up, we cannot
Speaker 1: hear what he's saying. Nobody picked it up on the microphones.
Speaker 1: Wearing a T shirt and a jacket right there, he says,
Speaker 1: I've been trying to tell you this for years. Let
Speaker 1: him talk, Let him talk, no one, Okay, well they
Speaker 1: didn't let him talk. The Secret Service dragged him out
Speaker 1: of the ceremony, which stands to happen when you stand up,
Speaker 1: uh and interrupt the president. Genie, this again is what
Speaker 1: you're talking about. Progressives are not getting enough. Even as
Speaker 1: Republicans say they're going nowhere with this president, the left
Speaker 1: of his party is sounding a lot like they are
Speaker 1: they are. And you know, that was sort of a
Speaker 1: perfect example of what we've been seeing. Here was the
Speaker 1: president trying to celebrate the work he's done. You know,
Speaker 1: I was not a big fan of this. You know, bill,
Speaker 1: which I can hardly call a gun bill. I I
Speaker 1: agree with Mr Oliver, but you know, it was a
Speaker 1: step forward. It was bipartisan to Rick davids point. Yet
Speaker 1: they're trying to celebrate it and the President gets heckled
Speaker 1: at his own event. Progressives are outraged, they're frustrated, they're disappointed,
Speaker 1: and you know, just briefly back to inflation. If the
Speaker 1: president wants to know what happens when people get frustrated
Speaker 1: by inflation, look at what's going on in Sri Lanka
Speaker 1: right now. They have descended to the palace to out
Speaker 1: there in the swimming pool. Right now, they're in the pool,
Speaker 1: and and that's I'm afraid where we're headed, although I
Speaker 1: should not say that, so God forbid a Rick uh
Speaker 1: in thirty seconds? Here was that an opportunity missed to
Speaker 1: the president of gone out and hugged him. Um well,
Speaker 1: I think what the opportunity was is they hadn't det
Speaker 1: with the guy well in advance of this, and this
Speaker 1: is another missed by the administration. Boy Rick and Genie
Speaker 1: or with us for the hour, our magnature panel, of
Speaker 1: course you're on Bloomberg. Sound on to the next potential
Speaker 1: problem for this White House. Next, it's about Obamacare. We'll
Speaker 1: have Jonathan Bruber with us on Bloomberg. There's another deadline
Speaker 1: hanging over Democrats in Washington, the expiration of enhanced subsidies
Speaker 1: for people who get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
Speaker 1: They were enhanced during COVID and they expire the end
Speaker 1: of this year unless Democrats can find a solution. They
Speaker 1: may have, but we want to talk about how this
Speaker 1: all works and how much of an impact it would
Speaker 1: actually have. With the architects of Obamacare, M I T
Speaker 1: economist professor Jonathan Gruber. He's with us now on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Sound On, Jonathan, Welcome back to Bloomberg. Good. The Washington
Speaker 1: Post calls it a looming disaster and a ticking time bomb.
Speaker 1: What do you call this? I call this a real
Speaker 1: failure of government policy to take advantage of an opportunity
Speaker 1: to u to ensure that health insurance affordable for millions
Speaker 1: of Americans. Look, I think it's useful Joe of a
Speaker 1: little background. So, when we passed the Affordable Care Act
Speaker 1: back in President Obama was very serious about making sure
Speaker 1: that it was not only deficit neutral, but deficit reducing.
Speaker 1: And what that meant was the subsidies were the subsidies
Speaker 1: that people could use to buy health insurance on the exchanges,
Speaker 1: We're not quite as generous as they should have been.
Speaker 1: I think the feeling was, look, let's get this ball rolling,
Speaker 1: and eventually that we made more generous. That followed after
Speaker 1: with the Trump administration undercutting the A C exchanges in
Speaker 1: ways that dramatically raised the premiums on the exchanges, leading
Speaker 1: to situation where basically, unless you get a government subsidy,
Speaker 1: it's pretty hard to afford coverage on these exchanges. So
Speaker 1: COVID brought the subsidies so so in response to covid UH,
Speaker 1: the Biden administration added h subsidies, which made it more
Speaker 1: affordable for people to get insurance on the change. In particular,
Speaker 1: it ended the so called subsidy cliff above, which where
Speaker 1: people above four times the poverty line. So the fixed
Speaker 1: ideas that's about a hundred grand for a family of
Speaker 1: four hundred grand is it is not nothing that that
Speaker 1: that's above the average income in America, but it's also
Speaker 1: a point at which health insurance can still be a
Speaker 1: large share of income if you're older in an expensive
Speaker 1: area of the country. So basically the situation where you
Speaker 1: have people who really were uh, could see the premiums
Speaker 1: go up a hundred percent or more uh if we
Speaker 1: if we get rid of these subsidies are put in
Speaker 1: by the by the administration or more. The Urban Institute
Speaker 1: estimates the expiration could add hundreds of dollars to the
Speaker 1: annual premium payments for the lowest earners and leave over
Speaker 1: three million people uninsured. Jonathan, do you see those numbers
Speaker 1: that way? Look, the numbers are hard to predict, but
Speaker 1: the direction is unbelievably clear. And I think remember two
Speaker 1: things will happen with these expired It's very important to
Speaker 1: separate them. First of all, many low income people we
Speaker 1: pay more money and some will lose insurance. More relevant
Speaker 1: is the middle income people for whom before the exchanges
Speaker 1: were unaffordable, because, as I said, the sabotage that was
Speaker 1: undertaken or in the Trump administration really raised premiums to
Speaker 1: the roof. They will lose act they will it will
Speaker 1: become simply unaffordable for them. Won't be a matter of
Speaker 1: hundreds of a matter of thousands. And so really these
Speaker 1: are both problems. It's both about making these premiums more
Speaker 1: affordable for the lowest income people who are in these
Speaker 1: A C exchanges, but also giving really getting access for
Speaker 1: middle income people to this important government program. A group
Speaker 1: of Democratic governors sent a letter to Congress over a
Speaker 1: week ago urging them to act on this as we
Speaker 1: head for the mid term elections. It's not just Congress,
Speaker 1: of course being reelected here. Is there anything that can
Speaker 1: be done on the state level that governors themselves could do?
Speaker 1: You know, um, yes, I mean governors could do what
Speaker 1: we do in Massachusetts, which is in Massachusetts we actually
Speaker 1: top up the federal premiums to make the program more
Speaker 1: generous varsity residents. But that's expensive, uh, and that's not
Speaker 1: really not the job of the states that the federal
Speaker 1: program in the federal revern should be making it happen
Speaker 1: not likely to be duplicated, So I I don't think
Speaker 1: it's likely to happen. Like you're no stranger to politics here, professor.
Speaker 1: It's to solve this in the weeks and months ahead
Speaker 1: of the midterm elections may well be impossible. That would
Speaker 1: leave almost no time following November to get this done
Speaker 1: before the end of the year. You know, this should
Speaker 1: be a major talking point in the campaigns for for
Speaker 1: you know, in the election if if we cannot get
Speaker 1: this done, the voters should understand that electing turning Congress
Speaker 1: over the Republicans means it simply will not happen. While
Speaker 1: leaving Congress hands the Democrats at least leave some chance
Speaker 1: it will. So it's clear who's for the news against it.
Speaker 1: It's clear that the Democratic Party would like this to happen.
Speaker 1: It remains there remains conversations on on the Reconciliation Act.
Speaker 1: That is a bill that you pass with only Democratic votes,
Speaker 1: which would include extending these subsidies. Um. But um, they
Speaker 1: have to do that on a partisan basis because Republicans
Speaker 1: have been uniformly opposed to extending these subsidies which make
Speaker 1: insurance affordable for millions of Americans. And I think that's
Speaker 1: something voters need to think hard about as they cast
Speaker 1: their votes in November. Professor Grewber, I want to ask
Speaker 1: you about some of the comments that President Biden made.
Speaker 1: Is he was discussing reproductive rights for women as part
Speaker 1: of an executive order he was signing. Here, he talked
Speaker 1: about the the A c A and what it does
Speaker 1: your guarantees coverage of contraception. But what policies do insurers
Speaker 1: have to honor with when it comes to reproductive rights?
Speaker 1: Are there any Well? No, I mean this is this
Speaker 1: is this is the next big battle coming, Joe, And
Speaker 1: which is that basically there is a mandate on insurers
Speaker 1: that they must cover contraception, but it does not spell
Speaker 1: out exactly what that means. If they're on the exchange,
Speaker 1: that does spell out what it means. So on the exchanges,
Speaker 1: its specifically spells a set of benefits, one of which
Speaker 1: is the so called Plan B bill. Um, what happens
Speaker 1: if a state suddenly says the Plan B bill they've
Speaker 1: decided as abortion, not going to cover it. Well, then
Speaker 1: suddenly you have state law in conflict with the federal
Speaker 1: law and it's going to go to the courts. Uh.
Speaker 1: And the federal law doesn't automatically override the state law.
Speaker 1: That that's that's a legal problem. No, I mean, insurers,
Speaker 1: our insurance regulations are truly not the state level. Is
Speaker 1: plan be considered contraception from the lego? That's exactly the question.
Speaker 1: Because contraception that I think we're a very different situation
Speaker 1: than if the state declares it abortion, where they've just
Speaker 1: outlawed abortion. If they start rolling plan being into their
Speaker 1: definition of abortion, then suddenly they can say insures shouldn't
Speaker 1: cover it, and insures, you know, state law typically takes
Speaker 1: precedence here, So suddenly you could see millions of women
Speaker 1: who have had tens of millions of women who have
Speaker 1: had this reproductive um right allowed to them take if
Speaker 1: you could have it taken away, things are about to
Speaker 1: get confusing here. Professor Jonathan Gruber, economist at M I
Speaker 1: T and architect of Romney Care and Obamacare. It's great
Speaker 1: to have you back on Bloomberg. Thanks good to be here. Anytime.
Speaker 1: We've got the panels take on this next. Can Democrats
Speaker 1: handle this in reconciliation? As Jonathan suggests, that might be
Speaker 1: the one swing at the ball that they're going to get.
Speaker 1: And President Biden's packing bags, well, somebody is at the
Speaker 1: White House. Two days from now they head to Israel
Speaker 1: and then on to Saudi Arabia. Well it results in
Speaker 1: more oil. Will reassemble the panel next, and here from
Speaker 1: Rick and Jennie on the Fastest Hour in Politics, sound on,
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. Sound on on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: So based on what we've learned this hour. The best
Speaker 1: case scenario for Democrats in Washington ahead of the mid
Speaker 1: terms is passing that China Competes bill with the chip
Speaker 1: backs with the hell of some Republicans, and also finding
Speaker 1: a way to pass a reconciliation bill that includes a
Speaker 1: prescription drug component we've already heard about but now also
Speaker 1: extends subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. The worst case,
Speaker 1: nothing gets done. Let's reassemble the panel with Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 1: contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis. Ricky's reconciliation suddenly then
Speaker 1: the most important item on the list for this White House.
Speaker 1: We know lawmakers are gone the better part of of August.
Speaker 1: Then it's back to campaigning. I'm assuming after that this
Speaker 1: is the time now, right, Yeah, you're right, Joe. I
Speaker 1: mean they are running down the clock and and and
Speaker 1: even though reconciliation can be hot burnered, uh, it's it's
Speaker 1: still going to require some effort to convince Democrats and
Speaker 1: including our friend Joe Mansion from West Virginia to buy in.
Speaker 1: But it is their number one talking point right now
Speaker 1: is to what they want to try and sell to
Speaker 1: the American public in advance of the elections in November.
Speaker 1: So my guess is, yes, they're gonna put all their
Speaker 1: chips in this basket. Did frameless properly, Genie, because this
Speaker 1: a c a issue that we just discussed with Jonathan Ruber,
Speaker 1: is something that's not in the mainstream conversation yet. There's
Speaker 1: been a couple of columns, a couple of op eds.
Speaker 1: But this has to get a lot louder for people
Speaker 1: to respond. Right, that's right, and it is critically important,
Speaker 1: and that's why it's so important. You had that conversation. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, for the Democrats, this has been something that
Speaker 1: they have been wanting to do. They have talked an
Speaker 1: awful lot about it, but I still am skeptical. Number
Speaker 1: one because of the calendar. Number two is Rick mentioned
Speaker 1: because not just Joe mentioned, but Kristen Cinema as well.
Speaker 1: And then number three, imagine this, even if they get
Speaker 1: a deal in the Senate, and that would be a
Speaker 1: big deal if they get something, how do they get
Speaker 1: something like this through the House. Just look at my state,
Speaker 1: for instance, the salt issue that has been a critical issue.
Speaker 1: I don't know that Democrats are going to accept changes
Speaker 1: to the tax code without changes to sault in the House.
Speaker 1: So there's a number of of of curdles here. Obviously,
Speaker 1: in a very short period of time, Ricky spent a
Speaker 1: good chunk of your career in the upper Chamber. What
Speaker 1: about that wild West chamber known as the House. Look,
Speaker 1: I think that no matter what comes out of the Senate,
Speaker 1: if something came out of the Senate, and especially if
Speaker 1: it includes this fix to the A C A, which
Speaker 1: is really important that democratic constituencies, Uh, they got to
Speaker 1: eat it. Uh, and they got to eat it quick
Speaker 1: because they are running out of time, as we've talked about.
Speaker 1: So actually, I think it's the best possible strategy is
Speaker 1: to force the House to have to act on it
Speaker 1: without any time available and get their backs up against
Speaker 1: the wall and say either take it or leave it,
Speaker 1: and don't be the ones that beat this deal. So Uh,
Speaker 1: they will come under incredible pressure by the Biden administration
Speaker 1: to give him something he can sign before Labor Day.
Speaker 1: We haven't talked about the trip very much yet, but
Speaker 1: we need to get into it because there are a
Speaker 1: lot of reporters on their way to the Middle East
Speaker 1: right now. Not to mention the White House Advanced crew
Speaker 1: that's been there for some time. The president is coming.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be Israel, and yes, it's gonna me Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1: And you know who was talking about it over the weekend,
Speaker 1: not just White House surrogates trying to tamp down this
Speaker 1: image of the president going hat in hand begging for
Speaker 1: oyl but Donald Trump went up to Alaska to do
Speaker 1: an event and he got to it. Here's the former
Speaker 1: president instead of energy independence the US who's becoming an
Speaker 1: absolute beggar for energy. You see what they're doing. He's
Speaker 1: going to Saundi Arabia to ask for oil. He didn't
Speaker 1: like Saundi Arabia. I did. I always liked him, but
Speaker 1: he didn't like him. Now he's going there and he's
Speaker 1: asking for oil. Please give us energy. That's how the
Speaker 1: country is going to be looking at this right, Jeanie.
Speaker 1: Why is the White House going out of its way
Speaker 1: to sort of frame this as a security trip. Why
Speaker 1: not just say this president is getting on an airplane
Speaker 1: to get your gas prices lower. Yeah, we heard the
Speaker 1: President over the weekend with this op ed that they
Speaker 1: put out, and he's trying to you know, sort of defend,
Speaker 1: you know, a sort of walk back. I guess or
Speaker 1: defend the statements he made as a campaigner, and now
Speaker 1: that he is isn't And the message seems to be
Speaker 1: that he is not going to give the Saudis a
Speaker 1: blank check like the Trump administration did. But he understands
Speaker 1: there a strategic partner of you know, a number of years,
Speaker 1: eight plus years, and the goal is to reorient those relationships,
Speaker 1: not rupture them. That's the message coming out of the
Speaker 1: White House. Whether it sells is another question, because of
Speaker 1: course one big question is it going to you know, uh,
Speaker 1: is it going to succeed in reducing gas prices which
Speaker 1: are already going down to a certain extent. But then,
Speaker 1: of course there's the optics of this. You know, does
Speaker 1: he shake hands with the Prince? You know, does he
Speaker 1: say anything about the killing of Jamal ka Shogi all
Speaker 1: of these things which should be fascinating to watch. Well,
Speaker 1: that's true. So you know, we heard from Terry Haynes today,
Speaker 1: the founder of Pangaea Policy, and he was talking about
Speaker 1: what's waiting for Joe Biden there that that it might
Speaker 1: not actually be what he thinks, that that things are
Speaker 1: pretty tapped out already. Here's Terry Haynes, Billpack is already
Speaker 1: at the Saudiast behalf increased tomping slightly. Uh something that
Speaker 1: was seen as both kind of a welcome match for
Speaker 1: Biden and a pushback at the Russians a bit. Uh So,
Speaker 1: the benefit on oil that the United States and the
Speaker 1: President gets out of this has already happened. So what's
Speaker 1: the point if that's the case? Rick, he said that
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg today, there's gonna be a big disappointment when
Speaker 1: he comes home. Well, I hate to call it a
Speaker 1: quid pro quote, but it sounds like a quid pro quote.
Speaker 1: You know, you get those oil prices down, you manipulate OPEC,
Speaker 1: you knocked the Russians out, and I'll come shake your hand.
Speaker 1: The reality, too, is it's not to be missed here.
Speaker 1: The buy not beed did lay out this, you know, large,
Speaker 1: very broad initiative that the US has been involved in
Speaker 1: to bring allied groups together, you know, in the region
Speaker 1: as a deterrence to the Iranian UH activity throughout the world.
Speaker 1: And and and it is a legitimate argument to say
Speaker 1: that part of this is to go and unite that
Speaker 1: Now he's gonna need some kind of an announcement out
Speaker 1: of that. You know that that we've created. Many people
Speaker 1: called it the the Middle East NATO. But getting all
Speaker 1: these countries, especially Saudi Arabian Israel, to talk to one another,
Speaker 1: uh is going to be a high priority. Uh And
Speaker 1: and it's not to be missed by anybody that that
Speaker 1: we're still not hearing any progress on the Iranian nuclear deal.
Speaker 1: Old time called j C p O A because I
Speaker 1: don't think the Israelis would show up for this meeting
Speaker 1: if there was progress there. So uh, he might have
Speaker 1: a moment in time here to actually draw attention away
Speaker 1: from the oil discussion and in the Middle East a
Speaker 1: lot here. Why why not call this then the trip
Speaker 1: to Israel? Well, I think that he would probably like
Speaker 1: to call it the trip to Israel, except none of
Speaker 1: us are gonna let him. Uh And And the reality
Speaker 1: is that he's he's walking into not a totally secure situation.
Speaker 1: You've got politics in Israel. They have taken a turn
Speaker 1: for the worst. They write smack dab in the middle
Speaker 1: of elections, you know, in a very complicated situation, Saudi
Speaker 1: Arabia about publicly opening new relations with Israel, even though
Speaker 1: they've been ongoing conversations with Israel on creating a deterrence
Speaker 1: to Iran for quite some time. So if he can
Speaker 1: get Saudi Arabia, if Biden can get Saudi Arabia to
Speaker 1: join the Abraham Accords or create some kind of a
Speaker 1: diplomatic relations with Israel, you know, it could be an
Speaker 1: interesting trip. Would that make it worthwhile? Jeannie? Would people
Speaker 1: maybe not complain as much about the ask for oil? Uh,
Speaker 1: They're going to complain either way, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: and you know, listen, this is this is the challenge.
Speaker 1: You know. It's one thing to be a candidate and
Speaker 1: talk about people as pariah's and having no socially redeeming value.
Speaker 1: The reality is, when you're president, you have to balance
Speaker 1: these values and these interests. And that's what he is
Speaker 1: going to do. But he's walking a tight rope because
Speaker 1: of things that he said. The reality is Saudi Arabia
Speaker 1: is a critical is a critical partner for the United States,
Speaker 1: and the president has no choice but to suck it
Speaker 1: up and go over there there. That's what he's doing.
Speaker 1: We know he doesn't want to, but the assessment is
Speaker 1: he has to get over there for Ron, for China,
Speaker 1: for all of these different reasons, for Israel that that
Speaker 1: Rick just laid out. He's got to get over there,
Speaker 1: and he's doing it, but the optics are going to
Speaker 1: be very difficult for them to handle. Does that op
Speaker 1: ed uh, influence anyone? Rick? The President has started doing
Speaker 1: this more often when things get difficult. It's it tends
Speaker 1: to a big speech or a trip will be preceded
Speaker 1: by an op ed in what the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 1: of the New York Times based on what we've seen,
Speaker 1: it's the Times this time around. People don't read newspapers anymore.
Speaker 1: Is it is this a letter to Washington? Who's the audience? Well,
Speaker 1: we're talking about it. We are, but we're weird. We're weird,
Speaker 1: and uh, we're nerds. But the reality is that it
Speaker 1: is a way to get your message out without the
Speaker 1: without the filter of the media, and the media is
Speaker 1: gonna start and stop every conversation about Saudi Arabia, about
Speaker 1: Kashogi and and and this was a way of actually
Speaker 1: doing something in the media that he didn't have to
Speaker 1: get framed that way, and he was able to get
Speaker 1: some of that discussion about security deterrence in the region
Speaker 1: into an article. Um, how does he handle the situation?
Speaker 1: He said, He's going to bring it up how do
Speaker 1: you prove that you brought it up when nobody was
Speaker 1: in the room. Basically, you gotta bring it up and
Speaker 1: and then you gotta have both members walk out and
Speaker 1: give a readout where it was discussed. You can't have
Speaker 1: one party that said it wasn't talked about and another
Speaker 1: party said it was. MBS is not going to say
Speaker 1: that though as a genie, No, but you know this
Speaker 1: is Joe Biden. Didn't he look at Puttin in the
Speaker 1: face and call him a killer? So you know he's
Speaker 1: He's done this before and now you agree. I think
Speaker 1: he has to do it again. And I'm gonna wear
Speaker 1: my nerd hat with pride. I did read the op ed.
Speaker 1: Thank you Joe Matthews. Of course you look fantastic with
Speaker 1: that hat as well. Um, I don't know where where
Speaker 1: this is going to end up here, Rick, It's it's
Speaker 1: going to take him a couple of days to get
Speaker 1: to Jetta, right, He's going to be a couple of
Speaker 1: days in Israel and then it's down to Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1: There's gonna be a lot of media waiting for him.
Speaker 1: To your point, though this is a very carefully choreographed event,
Speaker 1: will there be much speech offinds he needs to be
Speaker 1: talking on this trip, you know, I think he'll he'll
Speaker 1: frame the trip and and talk about what success is uh.
Speaker 1: And then and then ideally is pre baked and and
Speaker 1: and everybody sort of plays their role in making whatever
Speaker 1: public statements they can to reinforce that. Look, the region
Speaker 1: wants us there for security to Terrence, it really needs it.
Speaker 1: We need to be there to be a factor in
Speaker 1: the region. We cannot seed the Middle East to China,
Speaker 1: and Saudi Arabia is the cog in the wheel. And
Speaker 1: so hopefully this is all orchestrated diplomatic diplomatic ways should prevail.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be delicate staging, Genie. No bicycles, no bike
Speaker 1: riding on this trip, right, that's right, but lots of
Speaker 1: not so nerd hats Jeff. Fair enough, all right, So
Speaker 1: this is where we pick it up tomorrow with Rick
Speaker 1: and Genie our signature panel on the Fastest Hour in Politics.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the podcast I Joe Matthew, this is blue
Speaker 1: but