1 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the last Stephonomics of In twelve months, 2 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: we've been around the world many times with our reports 3 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,479 Speaker 1: from the front lines of the global economy, from the 4 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: Fort Lauderdale Boat Show to the Canton Fair in Guandoux 5 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: Via Santiago, Berlin, South Central India, and a farm equipment 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: factory in Broadhead, Wisconsin. We've also talked to many world 7 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: leading economists, including two winners of the Nobel Prize. Not 8 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: bad when you consider that all the people involved in 9 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: this podcast also have quite busy day jobs. And we're 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: not putting our feet up this week just because it's Christmas. 11 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: Oh No. Instead, you're going to hear from a third 12 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: Nobel Prize winner, the economist Joe Stiglets, a conversation I 13 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: had with him recently in London when he was here 14 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: to deliver a lecture on progressive capitalism at the London 15 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,960 Speaker 1: School of Economics. If progressive capitalism was on your Christmas 16 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: list this year, you should listen in. But first a 17 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: return trip to Vietnam, a country we've talked about surprisingly 18 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: often here on Stephanomics. Now, if you've paid attention, then 19 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: you'll remember it's been a winner and a loser in 20 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: the US China trade Wars. It's complicated, but what you 21 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: probably don't know is that it might be about to 22 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: light up your next Christmas. Here's our South Asian Economy 23 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: correspondent Michelle jam Briskin to explain what good ah Yes Christmas, or, 24 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: more specifically, the classic holiday movie National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation. 25 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: You just heard the part when Clark Griswold drains all 26 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: the electricity in the city to light up what must 27 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: be a million bulbs covering his big suburban house. Americans 28 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: have been putting lights up since they became affordable in 29 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 1: the mid twentieth century. It's a half billion dollar business 30 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: even if you only count those US customers, and in 31 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: recent years, virtually all the lights made in the world 32 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: come from one place, China. As an American economic journalists 33 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: based in Singapore, I found myself in a good position 34 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: to explore this issue as it touches on two major stories, 35 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,920 Speaker 1: the US China Trade War as well as the rise 36 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: of Vietnam's economy. My colleague win Win and I decided 37 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 1: to head to a street and Hannoi's old quarter called 38 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: hang Ma or Vodo Street in English. It's a spectacularly 39 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 1: colorful road whose shops are overflowing with Christmas decorations. At 40 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: other times of the year, there are goods for holidays 41 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: like Lunar New Year, or paper products that are burned 42 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: in rituals. Dead catd to lost loved ones. By early December, 43 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: there are Santa suits, reindeer wreaths, snowmen, garland, and Christmas 44 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 1: lights as far as the eye can see. But even 45 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: if it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, the 46 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: mood this year feels a little bit off. We met 47 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: a shopkeeper named new in quan Hui. He's thirty five 48 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: and has been selling on Hangma for five years. Sales 49 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 1: have been slow this year due to too many reasons. 50 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: One is because there are so many suppliers this year, 51 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: they flooded the street with Chinese stuff. Secondly is people 52 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: cutting down on spending this year. Take just one of 53 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 1: those items flooding the streets Christmas lights. For many years, 54 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: China was essentially the only country in the world producing them. 55 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: The data suggests that might be changing. Of course, the 56 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: trade war has been waged not in the name of 57 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: Christmas lights. It's supposed to be about America's ballooning trade 58 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: deficit with China and allegations over intellectual proper e theft. 59 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: But the supply chain for Christmas lights shows just how 60 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: difficult it is for the US to penalize China without 61 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: also making things more difficult on American soil. We dug 62 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: into US customs shipping data to figure it all out. 63 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,359 Speaker 1: Christmas lights actually have their own six digit international code 64 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: and category. US imports from China this specific item by 65 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: sea have declined over the past year and a half, 66 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 1: while those from Vietnam have surged from almost nothing. Other data, 67 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: which includes shipments by sea and air show Cambodia is 68 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: also sending a lot of Christmas lights to America. All 69 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: this is happening after Christmas lights got caught up in 70 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: the trade war. They were originally slapped with a ten 71 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: duty effective in September, that went up to and May 72 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: of this year, and that phase one agreement between the 73 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: US and China to reduce tariffs on some goods, it 74 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: doesn't cover Christmas lights, so the higher duties remain. What's more, 75 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: Christmas lights are tangled in a bigger trend. Chinese companies 76 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 1: are trying to find ways to offset lost business directly 77 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 1: to the US. One solution is to route those same 78 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: products through third countries for final production. Another is to 79 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: find new customer basis like Vietnam. Here's Jacque mor Say, 80 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: the World Bank's lead Vietnam economist, talking about Vietnam's dilemma. 81 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: Is a winning on a temporary basis because you have 82 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: a press adjustment. So that was taking place and I 83 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: think magnified what was taking place before, you know, moving 84 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: from China to Vietnam. So I think it's a temporary again. 85 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: At same time, just temporary again doesn't have to be 86 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: too big because the way you will be on the 87 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: radar screen of the U s stor it is more, 88 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: Say says. The increase in the official data for Vietnam's 89 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: exports is clear, but it isn't matched by figures on 90 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: foreign direct investment or FDI. That makes it more difficult 91 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: to calculate how much Vietnam is winning and whether the 92 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: winning can be sustained. You would expect it being increasing 93 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: in the dy from China. You don't see it to 94 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: the data for items like Christmas lights that have shown 95 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: a discernible shift, and all too often from made in 96 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: China to made in Vietnam. The trend is concerning for 97 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: Vietnam's government. That's because Vietnam is stuck in a delicate balance, 98 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: almost as if trying to learn how to win quietly 99 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: in the trade war. Investors have cheered an economy that's 100 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: growing at an almost seven percent pace. K Sarah, Sharp, 101 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: and Nintendo are among the big names that have been 102 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: expanding in Vietnam amid the US China tensions. But Vietnam 103 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,359 Speaker 1: has also felt the sting of winning too much. In July, 104 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: the U s slap tariffs of more than on steel 105 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 1: from Vietnam. America accused the nation of not doing enough 106 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: to prevent tear off goods from being trafficked through their ports. 107 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: Vietnamese customs officials have taken the charge seriously, especially this year. 108 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: They see a high risk of trade fraud, and they 109 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 1: talk about not wanting to be used as a pawn 110 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: in the trade war. They're keeping a list of items 111 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: that have drifted from Chinese origin to Vietnamese origin. What 112 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 1: they don't want to see are new labels on an 113 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: item that was actually completed elsewhere. So what does meet 114 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: in Vietnam actually mean? In the case of Christmas lights? 115 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: It appears to mean finished or near finished Chinese goods 116 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: finding their way over the border before export. That's what 117 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: another shopkeeper back on Hangma is seeing. Here's new antih. 118 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: There are some local companies that brought material and parts 119 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: from China and assembled them into these Kai supplies to sell. 120 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: They can't produce by themselves because it would cause them 121 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: way more than importing paths from China to assemble. Likewise, 122 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: on the u S side, companies that import Christmas lights 123 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: emphasized the supply chain ships couldn't happen overnight, even if 124 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: they were enthusiastic to buy from Vietnam. Doug Topham the 125 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: owner of a business called Christmas Light Decorators in Arizona, 126 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: so the search for supplier outside of China has been fruitless. 127 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: He's been importing Christmas lights from China since two thousand 128 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: five and was looking to avoid Hefty's hairriff bills this year. 129 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: He forded an email from one supplier who suggested that 130 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: he falsify his invoice with a lower value to offset 131 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: the tariffs. Others offered to repackage the lights, either with 132 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: an erroneous origin or with a different company name. Topham 133 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: said he just wants to play by the rules. For 134 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: this Christmas season. Topham kept his order similar to previous years, 135 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: but he is looking elsewhere in Asia for next year's orders. 136 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: He's unlikely to find a Vietnamese supplier. Several larger Vietnamese 137 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: lighting companies don't produce Christmas lights specifically. They told us 138 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: that they very much doubted that any Christmas lights exported 139 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: from Vietnam were actually made by Vietnamese businesses. For those 140 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: selling Christmas lights and other festive gear along Hangma, that's 141 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: just fine. They don't see Vietnam trying to replicate the 142 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: Chinese model of mass export of cheaper goods. Drawn nuc 143 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: On is a fifty three year old veteran shopkeeper on Hangma. 144 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:06,559 Speaker 1: Here's how she put it, tank to you have even 145 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: these companies cannot make these kinds supplies because it will 146 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: cost them a lot more than Jennese products, so they 147 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: can compete. I hadn't seen any locally made ones. When 148 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: Jennese producers lower the prices of their products, the poet 149 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: is also poorer. But it's very easy for us to 150 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: sell this Chinese stuff because they have many new designs 151 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: and the prices are so cheap. Some items just cost 152 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: even less than a pup of tea or a bowl 153 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: of foot back for those hawking goods along Hang Ma further, 154 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: trade war piece could go a long way to making 155 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: for a merrier Christmas next year. In the meantime, the 156 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: price tag for Clark, Griswold and everyone else is at 157 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: a high risk of staying more expensive. For Bloomberg News, 158 00:09:54,920 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: this is Michelle Jammer. Still m M. I wonder whether 159 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: we'll hear from Vietnam again in But now here's that 160 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: conversation I had with the Nobel Prize being an economist, 161 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 1: Joe Stiglets here in London. So, Professor Joe Stiglets, thank 162 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 1: you very much for taking the time in London. You 163 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: were here in London doing a lecture to the London 164 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:44,199 Speaker 1: School of Economics asking the question, is progressive capitalism an 165 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: answer to America's problems? So do you think it is? Yes? Uh, 166 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: Maybe I should explain what I mean by progressive capitalism 167 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: in a way of a new card tract between the 168 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: market of the states of a society. The market will 169 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: play a role. Some people say progressive capitalism is an oxymoron. 170 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: I think you cannot run a complex society without some 171 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: degree of decentralization, and markets are going to play an 172 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: important role. Corporations are going to play role in that 173 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: decentralization process. But the kind of unbalanced market economy, unfettered 174 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 1: capitalism that we've had in the United States and in 175 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: many other countries is the central cause of many of 176 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: the problems the United States is facing. The growing inequality, 177 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: the oprioch prices, the child diabetes crices, the climate prices 178 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: that we have not responded to, and even in to 179 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: a larger them, the political crisis, you say, and Steals 180 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 1: actually said that one of the reasons that we've got 181 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: into a message that we failed to understand the true 182 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: sources of What do you mean by that, Well, the 183 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: true source the reason that we have such a higher 184 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: standard living today than we did two hundred fifty years 185 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: ago after centuries and centuries of stagnation, is the advance 186 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: is brought about by science and the advances in social organization. 187 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: Running a complex, innovative manufacturing post manufacturing economy requires a 188 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: lot of cooperation and coordination, requires collective action, not only 189 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: individuals acting individually, and needs regulations, and needs the role 190 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: of the state to promote basic research, UH, infrastructure, technology, technology, education, 191 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: and the dominant doctrine ideology of the last part of years. 192 00:12:55,880 --> 00:13:01,200 Speaker 1: Neoliberalism didn't pay attention to these pub days. And it 193 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: made one more mistake. UH. It confused what made individuals 194 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: wealthy with what makes the wealth of a nation. So 195 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: individuals can get wealthy by taking money from other individuals, 196 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: by exploiting them, by using market power, by taking advantage 197 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: of their vulnerabilities. And we see a lot of people 198 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,719 Speaker 1: becoming very wealthy through that kind of activity that economists 199 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: referred to as rent seeking wealth grapping. UH. The real 200 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: source of the wealth of nation and are as I said, 201 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: these big advances the people who discovered DNA, people transistor lasers. Interestingly, 202 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 1: none of these people are among the wealthiest people in 203 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: our country. And among the wealthiest people are those who 204 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: have become wealthy through him seeking. And of course there 205 00:13:55,640 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 1: are some people who made a contribution, achieved some degreement, 206 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,719 Speaker 1: ample power, but really amplified their wealth through this kind 207 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: of exploitation. I guess I should. It's a lot of people. Certainly, 208 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: some economists I've seen recently have been highlighting how strong, 209 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 1: how good the economy is looking relative to a lot 210 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 1: of other past elections. If you look at the us 211 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: UM I saw one estimate that kind of the tail 212 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: winds for a presidential election. If you're looking at the 213 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: level of unemployment, if you're looking at growth, you're looking 214 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: at the level of inflation, Mortgage rates, debt levels are 215 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: all actually much better than they have been in quite 216 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: a long time. Even wages for the lower part of 217 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: the wage spectrum, after a long time of stagnation, have 218 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 1: actually been doing better in the last few years. So 219 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: is this is this critique sort of failing to notice 220 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: what's actually happening out there? No at no, I mean 221 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: it's taking nada quarter by quarter, or by moderate month 222 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: or day by day. Perspective is looking at it over 223 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: a longer period at the time. But even if you 224 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: look more narrowly what's been happening in the last few years, 225 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: you see some real indicators that things are not going well. Uh. 226 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: Growth for instance, is slow from three point one percent 227 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: down to one after a massive tax cut, resulting in 228 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: a trillion dollar deficit this year, probably the largest deficit 229 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: that we've had in peacetime out of a recession. Life 230 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: expectancy is in decline. This should happen in a country 231 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: where we're breaking all the frontiers in medical research. It's 232 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: because we have a broken healthcare system. Students are graduating 233 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: with massive amounts of debt that's strangling their ability to 234 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: start a family and UH live up to their dreams 235 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: and aspirations. Median income is stagnante. Real wages at the 236 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: bottom at the same level as they were sixty years ago. 237 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: Media and income of a full time mail worker and 238 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: the full time men are the lucky ones, is the 239 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: same as it was more than forty years ago. This 240 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: is not a picture that of a prosperous economy. The 241 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: unemployment rate may be relatively low, but the employment rate 242 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: is also relatively low. A lot of people dropped out 243 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: of the labor force. So when I see the picture 244 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: of the economy, and when I don't use a number 245 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: of like GDP, it it is one of the indicators. 246 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: But what really matters is how well ordinary citizens are doing, 247 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: and in those terms, things aren't so rosy. I'm interested. 248 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you won your your Naval prosper Economics for 249 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:52,479 Speaker 1: your contributions to thinking about the way that information UH 250 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: played produces market well. Information failures and the market failures 251 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: in general asymmetries of knowledge and how they can contribute 252 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: to to inefficient outcomes. Do you think whether it's Elizabeth 253 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 1: Horn or anyone else, you know, a lot of people 254 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: recognize the market power of this massive internet companies globally 255 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: is posing an unprecedented issue for economies everywhere. The regulators 256 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: and governments are really struggling with Do you think that 257 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:26,880 Speaker 1: she has a genuine answer? Do you think anyone has 258 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: a rigorous approach to this? Yes, I do. The clearly 259 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: the monopolies of century are different from standard royal and 260 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,719 Speaker 1: the monopolies of the end of the nineteenth century or 261 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 1: twentieth century. UM. It's very clear that the anti drusservice, 262 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: our competition wives have not kept up with the changing economy. UM. 263 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: Our business leaders have had a kind of you might say, 264 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 1: resolution to increased market power that has not been met 265 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: with a publics. In fact, a major school in economics, 266 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: the Chicago School, took the view that markets are naturally competitive, 267 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 1: so don't worry about it. And actually there's been a 268 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 1: weakening of antitrust laws over the last fifty years, so 269 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: I think there is now a lot of focus on 270 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: where we made a mistake, both in weakening our competition 271 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: laws and in not keeping up with the new challenges 272 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: posed by the changes in our technology. I've been uh 273 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: participated in FTC hearings where these issues are are being discussed, 274 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: and I think there is a growing consensus at least 275 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: some elements that we need to begin with in making 276 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: our economy more competitive once again. Do you think I mean? 277 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 1: I was looking at some of the rulings over the years, 278 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of people who are now written 279 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 1: about how effective the internet companies have been, the likes 280 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: of Google and Facebook and actually resisting regulatory pressure, even 281 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: to the point of not responding to letters. I wonder 282 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: what I mean when you look at some of these issues, 283 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 1: do you think is there a question about whether they've 284 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 1: just got too big to even respond to some of 285 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: these challenges from government? Are they now bigger than any 286 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: single government? They are even bigger than most governments. And 287 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: what is so striking is the kind of arrogance that 288 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: they've exhibited. Uh, they realize how powerful they are. Facebook 289 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: famously signed an agreement to respect privacy and then when 290 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: they had and violated it, well, they were fined over 291 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: five billion dollars. So there's just nothing regular standpoints, but 292 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: there's a lot by regular staying board, and they're put 293 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: out notice that they will be fine a lot more 294 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: if they don't comply with regulations. Tim Cook, the head 295 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 1: of Apple, famously, uh, of course, I'm not going to 296 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 1: pay taxes, uh, paraphrasing what he said in response to 297 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: what Apple didn't in our own But then he said, 298 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,119 Speaker 1: but if you lowered the tax rate, then I'll comply. 299 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: In fact, you acting and say if you have a 300 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,199 Speaker 1: tax rate that I agree with, then I'll pay. But 301 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: if you don't, of course I'm going to avoid taxes. Well, 302 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 1: countries around the world and are saying, you know, this 303 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: is not the way society functions. The remarkable thing is 304 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: that these tech giants grew on the basis of government 305 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: funded research. The Internet was a result of government spending, 306 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: The first browser was a result of government spending. All 307 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: the basic insights that have led to all these advances 308 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: were a result of government spending. So they're willing to take, 309 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:04,400 Speaker 1: but they're not willing to reciprocate. And I think that's 310 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: not the basis of a social kind fract which you 311 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: can mean to a successful society. I should ask you 312 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: about the green new deal because I noticed we were 313 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: talking recently in Beijing with Nick Starn, who had written 314 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 1: the quite an important report or climate change, and think 315 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 1: about ten years ago. I noticed that you actually lead 316 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: a big report on environmental issues. Even longer ago, I 317 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: think the mid nineties. If you look, if you think 318 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: about the challenges you saw it then and you see 319 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,479 Speaker 1: now how far we've come in in terms of the 320 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 1: warming of the planet, but also a new feeling of urgency. Finally, 321 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: on the political side, do you think we are now 322 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: in a better place, at least when it comes to 323 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 1: confronting it, even though we've let a lot of time 324 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: go by. Public reception is so much stronger today. Any 325 00:21:55,920 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: scientific knowledge when we did our report, no new vibe. 326 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: We were aware that global warming would lead to more 327 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,880 Speaker 1: extreme events, but we didn't say that in our report 328 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: because the there was not overwhelming evidence of that. Today, 329 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 1: there is overwhelming evidence. The US has been losing almost 330 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 1: two percent of GDP using extreme events. People are realizing 331 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 1: we got extreme cold, its, fires, floods, hurricane cyclones, and 332 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 1: the young people particularly get it. And since the young 333 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: people are going to be the future of our of 334 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 1: our world. Uh, I am hopeful I am worried that 335 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: the you know, mistakes that we made is we did 336 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: not anticipate how fast things would change. And we understood 337 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: that there was an urgency, but we didn't understand how 338 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 1: urgent it was. Now we do and that why are 339 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: we responding fast enough? And next that I give you 340 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: trying it behind the Green New Deal, we need real 341 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: mobilization to arrest this issue. And when you look, I mean, 342 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 1: there are some who've said that the Green New Deal 343 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 1: is just so ambitious, um and so aggressive in its 344 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: timing that it could ultimately be be counterproductive because of 345 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: the sheer pace of what it's suggesting, you know, retrofitting 346 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: every single building in the country within ten years, decarbonizing 347 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: the economy within ten years, which even the most committed 348 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 1: experts in this field says is really not plausible. That 349 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 1: there's not enough people in the workforce to do some 350 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: of these things. I mean, do you think, um, do 351 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 1: you think it is potentially counterproductive or better to have 352 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: a more urgent goal. I don't know. I think it's 353 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: really important to have an urgent goal. But the broader 354 00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: perspective that people have focused on, you know, carbon reality, 355 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: I think that's clearly attainable, but that isn't the green 356 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: you did agree you do something much more aggressive. I 357 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 1: guess the question is do you do you make it 358 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: harder to reach the reasonable goal by by trying too 359 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: hard and actually maybe imposing too aggressive to changes on people. 360 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: I think that what we need is a kind of 361 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 1: wartime mobilization, and we need to do what we can. 362 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: And uh, you know, some of the things that people 363 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: say are very difficult aren't really that difficult. Putting installation 364 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: in housing, this is not require high skilled labor. We 365 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 1: have a lot of unskilled labor unemployment. We could brain 366 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: people to do it. Uh. So to me, addressing these 367 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 1: issues would actually make our economy stronger if everybody were 368 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: aware of the issue, if we commit ourselves to having 369 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 1: finance to enable people to do the expulation that they 370 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:08,199 Speaker 1: need with actually would more than pay for itself, So 371 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 1: they would actually be better off if they can get 372 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 1: the finance to do it. Um. I think we would 373 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 1: have a very hard take up, right. So, whether it's 374 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: going to be or even the real issue here is 375 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:31,239 Speaker 1: very quickly changing norms and expectations. And uh, you know, 376 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: we've been dawdling since we became aware of the problem 377 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,199 Speaker 1: more than thirty years ago, and what the Great New 378 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: Deal is really a statement, let's stop dawdling, let's start 379 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: doing something. Do you think, looking at where we are, 380 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:51,880 Speaker 1: looking at where policies are, that the next recession will 381 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: be another will produce another major crisis the way we've 382 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 1: seen we saw in two thousand and eight, Or do 383 00:25:58,119 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: you look at that and say, no, this will be 384 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,160 Speaker 1: you like a more normal recession, but we will continue 385 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: to have all the problems. Yeah, it will be. My 386 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 1: best bet is that it would be more like a 387 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: more normal reception, but coming on top of a situation 388 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:17,439 Speaker 1: where we haven't fully recovered from the last major doctor. 389 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: So that means that it will be in some sense 390 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 1: ugly harder for a lot of the people at the bottom. 391 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 1: And because interest rates are already very low, monetary policy 392 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:35,479 Speaker 1: will be hard to respond. And because the US, for instance, 393 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: squandered UH fiscal policy, not using UH using it when 394 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: we needed it in two thousand and ten, but using 395 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: it when we didn't need it in two thousand seventeen, 396 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: we will be in a much harder position respond effectively. 397 00:26:53,640 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thanks listening to Stephanomics. Will be 398 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: back next year. With a special roundtable discussion on what 399 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: to expect from the global economy in in the meantime. 400 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 1: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website at 401 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,160 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and we would love 402 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: it if you took the time to rate and review 403 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: our show. For more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, 404 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 1: follow at Economics on Twitter, and you can also find 405 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: me on at my Stephanomics. The story in this episode 406 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 1: was written and reported by Michelle jam Rusco and Uya Naguyan, 407 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 1: with assistance from Kevin Varley. It was produced by Magnus 408 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: Hendrickson and edited by Scott Lamman, who is also the 409 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: executive producer of Stephanomics Special thanks to Joe Stiglett's Nazarene 410 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: Syria and hung True On the head of Bloomberg Podcasts 411 00:27:47,200 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 1: is Francesco Levy five