WEBVTT - FINAL NFL WEEK 1 Bets: Gambling Picks & Predictions 0:00:00.830 --> 0:00:04.850 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Pilot Market. We are 0:00:04.870 --> 0:00:07.510 part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show 0:00:07.550 --> 0:00:09.629 that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.920 pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as always, 0:00:14.220 --> 0:00:18.840 by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:20.780 Simon Hunter. 0:00:21.060 --> 0:00:22.280 Hello, Simon. 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:24.140 Chad, how we doing? 0:00:24.700 --> 0:00:27.000 Brother, we got a Sunday morning NFL Week 1 show. 0:00:28.140 --> 0:00:30.760 You and I are going to nail down our five 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:34.720 final official picks for the first week of the NFL season. 0:00:35.740 --> 0:00:37.629 I know people have been asking a lot about the contest. 0:00:38.690 --> 0:00:41.489 There have been so many legal and logistics issues with 0:00:41.510 --> 0:00:45.910 the contest that we haven't confronted before. The contest will 0:00:45.930 --> 0:00:48.790 be happening. I apologize that we didn't get it done 0:00:48.830 --> 0:00:51.199 for week one. It will launch for week two. So 0:00:51.229 --> 0:00:56.980 consider these our final five picks that we love at 0:00:57.020 --> 0:00:57.580 this moment. 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.620 With these lines. Simon, are you ready to roll? 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:02.370 Let's do it. 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:03.139 Here we go. 0:01:03.780 --> 0:01:06.820 Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. The Bucs are three and a 0:01:06.860 --> 0:01:10.510 half point underdogs. This one was Chad's choice. I'm a 0:01:10.530 --> 0:01:11.790 little concerned about this, Simon. 0:01:11.830 --> 0:01:14.069 You love it. I love it. But all of a sudden, 0:01:14.090 --> 0:01:15.350 this number is moving to four. 0:01:15.630 --> 0:01:19.970 And it's been moving this direction all week, stubbornly hanging 0:01:20.010 --> 0:01:22.360 on to three and a half. I've started to see 0:01:22.390 --> 0:01:26.559 some fours pop up this morning, Sunday morning. You listed 0:01:26.580 --> 0:01:29.220 it as one of your biggest bets. It's a dog 0:01:29.530 --> 0:01:33.150 with a hook, an O-line we love, a QB we 0:01:33.190 --> 0:01:36.429 love as a dog, and he's got his full complement 0:01:36.470 --> 0:01:38.530 of weapons because it's week one and nobody's hurt. 0:01:39.870 --> 0:01:43.399 What are we missing? Are we getting trapped? Are we 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:45.759 being blind? Do we still love this? 0:01:47.740 --> 0:01:49.760 Yeah, it's too late to get off the boat at 0:01:49.780 --> 0:01:51.800 this point, my friend. We're in the middle of the Atlantic. 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:53.690 We are all in. Yeah. 0:01:54.700 --> 0:01:56.690 So, yeah, I just look at it that I agree 0:01:56.700 --> 0:01:58.010 with you. A weak one are always going to be 0:01:58.090 --> 0:02:00.110 scuffed because we always see the worst case scenario, right? 0:02:00.170 --> 0:02:05.370 Joe Burrow throws for 350 against a bad secondary of Tampa, 0:02:05.490 --> 0:02:06.710 and we just get absolutely torched. 0:02:07.330 --> 0:02:09.620 But, you know, me and you talked about it. 0:02:10.180 --> 0:02:12.639 The Bucs have always been good to us when Baker 0:02:12.660 --> 0:02:15.359 is healthy and has his full complement in offensive weapons. Now, 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:17.680 we don't know how they're going to be without Mike Evans, right? 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:19.859 No Mike Evans, to me, is the bigger thing we 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:22.500 haven't really talked much about. But you've seen when he's 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.460 been injured, Baker's always used these other guys and made 0:02:25.500 --> 0:02:28.019 them stand out. So it's kind of going to be 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.960 an interesting test there. And, yeah, it really is just 0:02:31.980 --> 0:02:34.620 a fade on the numbers. We do respect this Bengals 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:36.800 team and Joe Byrne, how good they are, but I 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.340 just can't see the Bucs being that much worse of 0:02:39.370 --> 0:02:41.310 a team, honestly, as fully healthy as they. 0:02:41.270 --> 0:02:44.230 Are right now. So I'm excited for Reuben Bain as. 0:02:44.190 --> 0:02:47.790 Well, see that matchup against that offensive line for Cincy 0:02:47.810 --> 0:02:50.150 because we've talked, I think they're better than people give 0:02:50.169 --> 0:02:52.630 them respect to be. But this would be a great 0:02:52.669 --> 0:02:54.850 test for them. Like to say, good front Vita Bay 0:02:54.910 --> 0:02:58.250 is full go as well. So, yeah, we're going to 0:02:58.270 --> 0:03:01.030 get a heavy dosage of Joe Burrow. And, you know, 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:05.700 it's going to be their plan, obviously, in this matchup tonight. So, yeah, 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:07.959 go to four. Like I've talked about, I know pros 0:03:07.980 --> 0:03:09.760 who have bet this. They're not taking the number. They're 0:03:09.780 --> 0:03:11.220 really betting the money line. So, to me, that's why 0:03:11.260 --> 0:03:14.160 it's going up a little bit. Because people, especially the public, 0:03:14.180 --> 0:03:15.640 they're going to be doing money line bets as well. So, 0:03:15.660 --> 0:03:17.370 they're just throwing these in their parlays at this point. 0:03:17.380 --> 0:03:19.810 I think everyone has the same mentality. 0:03:19.830 --> 0:03:21.810 We all think. Joe will win, but it won't be 0:03:21.850 --> 0:03:23.270 by more than three. Right. 0:03:23.690 --> 0:03:25.870 Okay. Really quickly. 0:03:25.930 --> 0:03:28.450 I want to talk about two favorites or two of 0:03:28.470 --> 0:03:30.770 the games. Probably not going to make it, but they 0:03:30.790 --> 0:03:32.290 were on the conversation the whole week. So I just 0:03:32.330 --> 0:03:35.050 want to close the loop on them. Cleveland at Jacksonville. 0:03:35.610 --> 0:03:37.350 This line got down to seven and a half in 0:03:37.370 --> 0:03:41.280 the middle of the week. It's now at plus nine 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:45.020 Cleveland plus nine in a lot of places. You've been 0:03:45.060 --> 0:03:49.240 talking about the Browns since Tuesday and, I will defer 0:03:49.260 --> 0:03:52.600 to you. I don't think the Browns plus nine ends 0:03:52.660 --> 0:03:56.440 up being one of our final five. But tell me 0:03:56.490 --> 0:03:59.770 if you're feeling so strong about the Browns at plus 0:03:59.810 --> 0:04:01.490 nine right now. 0:04:03.330 --> 0:04:06.570 Yeah, I can't believe your discord, which will no doubt 0:04:06.590 --> 0:04:09.990 be used against you at some day in court, came through, 0:04:10.010 --> 0:04:12.610 not taking the jacks, took Pittsburgh's money line and that 0:04:12.630 --> 0:04:12.870 paid off. 0:04:12.890 --> 0:04:16.180 Four votes, only four votes out of nearly 150. 0:04:16.180 --> 0:04:19.669 I mean, I think Pittsburgh went from minus 180 to 0:04:20.190 --> 0:04:20.830 it's like minus. 0:04:21.130 --> 0:04:22.930 We're going to talk about that in a sec. Let's 0:04:22.990 --> 0:04:24.570 let's finish with this game. 0:04:25.450 --> 0:04:29.090 Yeah, nothing's changed. I get why everyone's on the Jaguars. Strong. 0:04:29.110 --> 0:04:30.880 What's going to be a train wreck? It could be terrible. 0:04:31.700 --> 0:04:33.580 I've just given out all the stats. I mean, one 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:35.420 of my favorite ones, too, especially now that it's moved. 0:04:36.020 --> 0:04:40.700 So underdogs of a plus points in week one. 26-9 0:04:40.740 --> 0:04:42.820 against the spread. So that would be the Browns and 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:43.359 the Cardinals. 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.659 Yeah. It's just a week one play. 0:04:45.779 --> 0:04:48.980 You just play these ugly dogs because it's always so sloppy. 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:51.180 Could the Browns be blown out? Could the Cardinals get 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:53.880 blown out? Yeah, we all agree they're bottom of the 0:04:53.940 --> 0:04:57.160 barrel teams, but it's just so stupid week one. So 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:00.050 to me, it's a Jaguars team that keeps getting the 0:05:00.130 --> 0:05:01.410 love and hype from last year. 0:05:01.589 --> 0:05:03.130 People just love that team. 0:05:03.170 --> 0:05:04.850 They were so good to close out the year, and 0:05:05.270 --> 0:05:06.830 you expect them to come out and just beat up 0:05:06.850 --> 0:05:10.300 a Browns team that historically does not travel well. I 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.060 think I saw some really stupid stat. It was a 0:05:12.100 --> 0:05:14.480 Watson stack. Cause he obviously played for the Texans and 0:05:14.500 --> 0:05:16.080 it was like in his career, he's five and one 0:05:16.620 --> 0:05:19.500 against the Jaguars. It's like, that's a different person. That 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:23.350 is not Sean Watson in any form. So I love 0:05:23.370 --> 0:05:25.089 that people were asking me about that stat. It's like, 0:05:25.210 --> 0:05:27.690 I wish that mattered. I love stupid stats like that. 0:05:27.890 --> 0:05:29.110 Yeah. Yeah. 0:05:29.150 --> 0:05:32.190 To me, it's, it's, it's, it could be the one, 0:05:32.210 --> 0:05:34.950 the game that ruins people's survivor bracket, right? That would 0:05:34.990 --> 0:05:36.479 be the shocker of the day. If the Browns could 0:05:36.500 --> 0:05:38.800 win outright. That's why I just want to stay away. 0:05:38.820 --> 0:05:40.820 That it's a little, Little fishy, too much love for 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:43.740 the public. So I'm on this number. Keep getting bigger. 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.180 I would love for it to get double digits because 0:05:46.220 --> 0:05:48.990 the stats you get even better for double digit dogs 0:05:49.230 --> 0:05:49.890 in week one. 0:05:49.950 --> 0:05:52.610 So yeah, let the public keep bending up this morning. 0:05:53.250 --> 0:05:55.870 Are you taking a little taste of the money line? 0:05:57.589 --> 0:05:58.810 Yeah, I already have. 0:05:59.250 --> 0:06:01.610 If you're doing any stupid little money line around Robin 0:06:01.630 --> 0:06:04.930 Parlay or anything like that, just throw one or two 0:06:04.990 --> 0:06:06.940 of the Browns into one of them. Because like we said, 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:09.020 It's just so much unknown what their defense is going 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:10.460 to be like and what their offense will be like. 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.520 I'll pay for the upside because I respect how good 0:06:13.540 --> 0:06:14.700 they've drafted the last two years. 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.770 You mentioned Pittsburgh a second ago, and I just want 0:06:18.790 --> 0:06:21.529 to close the loop on this one as well. This 0:06:21.550 --> 0:06:23.950 was a huge move on Thursday with the announcement that 0:06:24.010 --> 0:06:25.929 Tua was going to be out with an oblique issue. 0:06:26.270 --> 0:06:29.070 Cooper Rush is now going to be starting. The line 0:06:29.130 --> 0:06:29.910 moved from 3.5 to 4.5, 5.5. 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:30.320 It's now at 6.5. 0:06:30.310 --> 0:06:39.320 Someone had asked in the Discord– what our survivor pick was. 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:43.719 We chose the Steelers in survivor, and that was earlier 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.380 in the week. Our grouper bet of the week from 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:50.740 the Discord voted on people in the Discord was Steelers 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:53.680 at minus 178. We got that on the money line, 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:58.380 a great number before the news. Steelers are now minus 0:06:58.380 --> 0:06:59.750 300 on the money line. 0:07:00.310 --> 0:07:03.830 Remember, if you want to join the Discord, go to readthenumber.com. 0:07:06.250 --> 0:07:10.660 Readthenumber.com. Pre-order the book, my book, The Number. Get an 0:07:10.700 --> 0:07:13.280 invite to the Discord. The more books we sell now, 0:07:13.340 --> 0:07:14.340 the more we are giving to St. 0:07:14.380 --> 0:07:17.929 Jude's Hospital. Go to readthenumber.com. 0:07:21.010 --> 0:07:23.730 Pittsburgh was a team that we liked as a favorite, 0:07:24.050 --> 0:07:25.770 potentially to be in our final five. 0:07:26.430 --> 0:07:28.900 Obviously, at this number, it's going to be a pass 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:29.170 for us. 0:07:30.630 --> 0:07:32.350 Yeah, it's going to be tough to program a real 0:07:32.390 --> 0:07:33.930 choice in their contest because it's going to be minus 0:07:33.970 --> 0:07:35.790 three and a half in a lot of those contests. 0:07:36.090 --> 0:07:36.630 Right. 0:07:36.750 --> 0:07:39.130 It's going to be the most public side probably of 0:07:39.190 --> 0:07:42.190 the week game-wise because it's a third-string quarterback going against 0:07:42.300 --> 0:07:48.800 a highly paid and rated defense at home. So, yeah, 0:07:48.820 --> 0:07:51.580 am I terrified? I'd much rather have been Tua. Tua, 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:53.000 I knew exactly what we were going to get. I 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:55.620 expected him to be knocked out within the second or 0:07:55.660 --> 0:07:58.680 third quarter because of this problem. Cooper Rush now is 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:02.760 having his own back spasms. um, you know, I don't 0:08:02.780 --> 0:08:05.119 know what kind of bed mattresses they're using or chairs 0:08:05.140 --> 0:08:07.900 they're using over at that facilities, but if the owner's 0:08:07.940 --> 0:08:10.690 a billionaire got to update whatever that is, because having 0:08:10.730 --> 0:08:13.489 both quarterbacks have back spasms, very interesting. 0:08:13.610 --> 0:08:16.030 So, um, yeah, we're in. 0:08:16.130 --> 0:08:18.070 I'm dug in, I'm dug in on Pittsburgh's when I've 0:08:18.110 --> 0:08:20.770 been bending for three months, I'd never knew this was 0:08:20.790 --> 0:08:21.750 gonna be the most public side. 0:08:21.770 --> 0:08:24.010 I always thought it was kind of, uh, there's people 0:08:24.030 --> 0:08:24.950 out there that love Atlanta. 0:08:24.970 --> 0:08:26.230 So I was like, people are always gonna be back 0:08:26.270 --> 0:08:28.150 in that team, especially in this matchup. 0:08:28.810 --> 0:08:29.930 Um, this is insane. 0:08:30.010 --> 0:08:31.410 If you want to, If you want to know what 0:08:31.490 --> 0:08:34.120 side to blindly take at a number, that probably is 0:08:34.140 --> 0:08:35.540 going to work out for you. Plus six and a 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:40.439 half on Atlanta, that's a huge number. At this point, 0:08:40.620 --> 0:08:42.500 you can't put money on Pittsburgh unless you're putting a 0:08:42.540 --> 0:08:45.800 teaser or taking their money line still. I would not 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:47.990 recommend taking minus six and a half on this team 0:08:48.030 --> 0:08:50.970 just because it's, once again, such a fluky week one, 0:08:51.030 --> 0:08:53.470 and Porter's not playing as well. So now Drake London's 0:08:53.510 --> 0:08:57.790 going up against their number two corner. Cooper Rush is 0:08:57.809 --> 0:09:00.800 not putting fear at all into anybody, but you just saw– 0:09:01.330 --> 0:09:04.089 on Thursday night, a backup quarterback come in and win 0:09:04.130 --> 0:09:07.230 a game. All it takes is them to get hot 0:09:07.250 --> 0:09:11.310 and their team to panic or have a bad game. 0:09:11.670 --> 0:09:14.750 We're dug in here, Chad, but it being the most 0:09:14.820 --> 0:09:18.220 bedside and everything like that money-wise is a little alarming. 0:09:19.580 --> 0:09:22.800 We're doing a new segment, Simon, and we're going to 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:25.660 talk about it with the Houston Texans hosting the Buffalo Bills. 0:09:26.380 --> 0:09:28.559 It's our closing. 0:09:27.970 --> 0:09:35.380 Time trade of the week. presented by Polymarket. Look, we've 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:41.120 been talking about Houston a little bit more in every episode. 0:09:41.140 --> 0:09:45.730 It's at one and a half as a trade on Polymarket, 0:09:47.230 --> 0:09:53.310 but it's creeping. You can see people coming in on Houston. 0:09:54.270 --> 0:09:58.750 The Texans as dogs were one of the games that 0:09:58.770 --> 0:10:03.130 the Wise Guys emphasized in sharp calls compelled you to 0:10:03.190 --> 0:10:05.819 make them one of your bigger bets. I have now 0:10:05.890 --> 0:10:11.679 invested in Texans at plus one and a half Texans. 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:12.300 On the money line. 0:10:13.700 --> 0:10:17.199 We included them in the money line underdog parlay with 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:20.979 the Giants and Closing time trade of the week presented 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:21.760 by Polymarket. 0:10:21.780 --> 0:10:23.660 I don't know how we ignore this one. 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:27.980 Yeah, it's a true pros versus Joes. 0:10:28.059 --> 0:10:30.709 It's every pro group I talk to, every pro guy 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.470 I talk to as a single bettor is like, how 0:10:33.490 --> 0:10:35.569 do you not take Houston here? And on the flip side, 0:10:35.590 --> 0:10:37.750 it feels like everyone I talk to is like, well, 0:10:37.770 --> 0:10:40.550 you're getting, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in 0:10:40.610 --> 0:10:43.510 football under a field goal. You take him here. He 0:10:43.570 --> 0:10:46.559 finds ways to win these type of games. So it 0:10:46.620 --> 0:10:48.179 is a little scary too. I've seen, it feels like 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:53.550 anytime I'm in the, the books or wherever, you're seeing 0:10:53.580 --> 0:10:55.760 a lot of love for this Texans team because of 0:10:55.790 --> 0:10:56.670 what we just talked about. 0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:01.179 Everyone just knows this defense is a unit. Yeah, so. 0:11:02.700 --> 0:11:07.300 If he does win this game, credit will start this 0:11:07.340 --> 0:11:09.700 season for Josh Allen because this is a true test 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.480 with a rookie head coach on the road here. I mean, 0:11:12.500 --> 0:11:14.219 that's another part of it we haven't even talked about 0:11:14.300 --> 0:11:16.540 that much where it's such a big deal for a 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:20.120 first-time head coach, and a D.C. 's first time calling 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:23.199 defense for the Bills, a whole new defensive unit on 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:28.280 the road here. We know the question here, Chad. Can 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.520 Stroud get us to 20 points or 21 points? It 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:32.540 feels like that's what's going to win this game. Either 0:11:32.590 --> 0:11:37.449 team can get to 20 or 21. We'll trade this number. 0:11:38.210 --> 0:11:40.550 Hopefully you get it before it drops down because I 0:11:40.570 --> 0:11:41.829 agree with you. I think it's going to get back 0:11:41.870 --> 0:11:43.750 down to half a point or maybe flip by the 0:11:43.790 --> 0:11:44.650 time the game kicks off. 0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.059 Football is back, folks, and you need to change the 0:11:48.100 --> 0:11:51.240 way you invest in the NFL this season. It's finally 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.780 time to ditch your old sportsbook apps because Polymarket is here. 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.600 Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:01.239 50 states. And those old sportsbooks, they're a relic of 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.290 the past. On Polymarket, you can trade on all things NFL, 0:12:04.750 --> 0:12:06.710 from the Sunday slate to who wins Rookie of the 0:12:06.730 --> 0:12:09.470 Year to who performs the halftime show. We hear from 0:12:09.510 --> 0:12:12.950 listeners all the time about sportsbooks driving them crazy, trying 0:12:12.970 --> 0:12:15.510 to cash out live. 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That's polymarket.us and promo code SHARP 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:08.410 to get a $ 50 bonus when you deposit just $ 10. 0:13:07.490 --> 0:13:11.630 Chicago at Carolina. Carolina is now. 0:13:11.390 --> 0:13:16.080 A full field goal. dog at home. It had been 0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:16.820 at two and a half. 0:13:16.860 --> 0:13:20.880 The public is finally starting to move this up a 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.280 little bit, which is what we expected. 0:13:23.300 --> 0:13:24.730 This was Simon Says. 0:13:24.750 --> 0:13:27.650 It's also on the list of one of the bigger 0:13:27.690 --> 0:13:32.210 bets of the week. Reminder, Bryce Young, past two seasons, 0:13:32.230 --> 0:13:39.410 17-9 as an underdog, 11 outright wins. The Bears defense, 0:13:39.650 --> 0:13:43.900 on paper at least, truly suspect. Carolina's defense might not 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:48.679 be any better. But, humid day in Charlotte. Scoreboard could 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.420 light up. We still like Bryce in that spot. Nothing 0:13:52.470 --> 0:13:54.010 has made me feel like we have to walk away 0:13:54.030 --> 0:13:54.330 from this. 0:13:56.610 --> 0:13:59.410 No, it's going to be nice though for the Bears. 0:13:59.429 --> 0:14:01.610 It's a true test of what their defense could be. 0:14:01.630 --> 0:14:04.630 Because we've seen Bryce Young, he struggles against good defenses, 0:14:04.650 --> 0:14:06.590 but he tears up bad defenses. I mean, I wish 0:14:06.610 --> 0:14:08.730 he didn't say bad, right? He tore up the Rams 0:14:08.809 --> 0:14:10.270 defense last year in the playoffs. I don't want to 0:14:10.290 --> 0:14:14.520 put too much disrespect to Bryce Young, but But, yeah, 0:14:14.820 --> 0:14:16.410 I knew coming in it was probably going to be 0:14:16.429 --> 0:14:18.230 on the bigger public side, the Bears, because they were 0:14:18.270 --> 0:14:19.350 just such a. 0:14:19.350 --> 0:14:20.010 Good team last year. 0:14:20.030 --> 0:14:21.770 And they're such a fun team to root for, especially 0:14:21.810 --> 0:14:24.670 Ben Johnson, the head coach. He's just an offensive genius 0:14:24.690 --> 0:14:28.580 of mine. So, Polymerica was one of the first places 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.100 to go to three and a half. So, it's another 0:14:30.180 --> 0:14:33.900 place I've been betting a ton of money into or 0:14:33.940 --> 0:14:36.500 trading a lot of money into. And I just, I 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.560 look at this number now and it's like, okay. I 0:14:39.580 --> 0:14:41.400 thought every everywhere would be three and a half and 0:14:41.450 --> 0:14:43.510 it's still not there. Like you said, it's still holding 0:14:43.550 --> 0:14:46.710 at three, which is really books. Books aren't here to push. 0:14:46.970 --> 0:14:49.010 So I always say to people, it's like, you know, 0:14:49.030 --> 0:14:51.510 worst case scenario lands on the three. That's usually how 0:14:51.530 --> 0:14:53.590 the books look at it because they just have so 0:14:53.630 --> 0:14:54.630 many people at two and a half. 0:14:54.650 --> 0:14:58.340 So money line bets. So, um, yeah, not surprising. 0:14:58.380 --> 0:15:00.760 This is probably gonna be the one or two most 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.320 bedside and most books, uh, today and most traded sides 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:08.240 to it on most markets. So, um, I'm of the 0:15:08.260 --> 0:15:10.980 standpoint here of just matchup wise. I think Bryce will 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.360 always keep us in it. Even, even when he gets down, 0:15:13.580 --> 0:15:16.570 he's done offensive weapons right now. The Carolina team's healthy 0:15:16.620 --> 0:15:19.990 enough to make this a real game. And flip side, 0:15:20.790 --> 0:15:24.050 we'll see what Ben Johnson wants to do, but I 0:15:24.110 --> 0:15:26.170 expect they're going to run for 150 yards. Like the 0:15:26.230 --> 0:15:27.750 matchup wise bears are going to be able to get 0:15:27.810 --> 0:15:30.590 theirs up front with their offensive unit there. I mean, 0:15:30.610 --> 0:15:33.850 their strength is that O-line. So we will see what 0:15:33.890 --> 0:15:37.130 happens this matchup here, but, Yeah, just a line that 0:15:37.150 --> 0:15:39.770 probably should closer to two, maybe two and a half. 0:15:39.830 --> 0:15:42.890 The fact that it's three, three and a half, it's 0:15:42.930 --> 0:15:44.300 way too much value on Chicago. 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.960 I think it's trading about 55 cents at the three 0:15:46.980 --> 0:15:52.800 and a half on Polymarket right now. Our brass balls 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.140 trade of the week presented by Polymarket this week was 0:15:56.200 --> 0:16:02.860 Miami at Las Vegas, three and a half. That's currently 0:16:02.900 --> 0:16:07.430 trading at 54 cents. So it's more expensive to buy 0:16:07.450 --> 0:16:10.580 the Miami side. I think we're going to have to 0:16:10.620 --> 0:16:12.580 make a tough choice on this one. I'm curious about 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:13.440 where your. 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:13.840 Head is at. 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.820 My sense is that we have three we are locked 0:16:16.900 --> 0:16:20.540 in on, potentially four. I wonder if at the end 0:16:20.580 --> 0:16:22.520 of the day, Miami at three and a half is 0:16:22.540 --> 0:16:26.130 going to be on the outside looking in. 0:16:26.620 --> 0:16:27.430 I'm still invested. 0:16:27.450 --> 0:16:32.070 I actually bet Miami on the money line here, but 0:16:32.090 --> 0:16:33.790 I'm not sure we're going to get Miami at three 0:16:33.830 --> 0:16:36.050 and a half as one of our final five. I 0:16:36.070 --> 0:16:38.650 think both you and I feel more strongly about some 0:16:38.690 --> 0:16:41.430 other ones, but maybe I'm misinterpreting, misreading. 0:16:41.850 --> 0:16:42.250 Your thoughts? 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.020 Yeah, but this is your side. You're all in on this. 0:16:46.060 --> 0:16:47.860 You wanted this to be brass balls, and now you 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:49.840 seem a little lukewarm on it. What's going on? Are 0:16:49.860 --> 0:16:51.400 you getting a little cold feet on Miami here? 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:53.180 No, no, no, no, no. 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:57.470 I'm not getting cold feet on Miami, but let's bunch 0:16:57.530 --> 0:16:59.070 it in with some other games. 0:16:59.550 --> 0:17:01.510 I put this one on you because I honestly have 0:17:01.570 --> 0:17:03.070 no interest in heavily watching this one. 0:17:03.090 --> 0:17:04.230 If you want to make this one of our five, 0:17:04.290 --> 0:17:04.770 so be it. 0:17:05.390 --> 0:17:08.230 Oh, well then that's like, I, I, I actually, to 0:17:09.020 --> 0:17:12.400 be honest, I feel that I've always felt better about 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:13.080 Tampa Bay. 0:17:13.260 --> 0:17:16.440 I've always felt better about Chicago, about Carolina. 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:20.399 I feel much better about Houston right now than I 0:17:20.420 --> 0:17:23.480 do about Miami. And so there are a couple other 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.560 games that I think are worth talking about and we 0:17:25.580 --> 0:17:30.300 can sort of bunch them together. Like Minnesota, there are 0:17:30.340 --> 0:17:33.060 some one and a halves out there against green Bay. 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.960 They're hosting green Bay. There's a lot of twos and 0:17:35.980 --> 0:17:38.980 there's even some two and a half. So do I 0:17:39.030 --> 0:17:41.590 like Minnesota? If we want to get a favorite in there, 0:17:42.050 --> 0:17:44.030 is this the favorite we're. 0:17:43.850 --> 0:17:44.630 Going to get in? 0:17:44.650 --> 0:17:46.750 And then there's one more game that we got to 0:17:46.810 --> 0:17:48.750 talk about that I think you and I both like 0:17:49.710 --> 0:17:52.660 as the number has moved in our favor, probably more 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:55.719 than Miami. But let's talk about, let's shelve Miami for 0:17:55.740 --> 0:17:59.640 a second. Bunch it with these next two games, Minnesota 0:17:59.660 --> 0:18:01.300 minus one and a half hosting Green Bay. 0:18:03.780 --> 0:18:04.740 Yeah, nothing's changed for me. 0:18:05.300 --> 0:18:06.740 I told you I'm too close to this one, so 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.280 you'd have to decide on it because I really like Minnesota. 0:18:09.300 --> 0:18:11.159 I like the matchup, and I think a lot of 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:13.619 books are in. 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:14.200 Pie market as well. 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.510 They're all moving at two and a half, so it's like, okay, 0:18:17.010 --> 0:18:18.490 the pros are coming in on them. I know the 0:18:18.530 --> 0:18:20.449 public is still going to be betting Green Bay for 0:18:20.470 --> 0:18:23.310 good reason, though, right? Green Bay has proven exactly what 0:18:23.330 --> 0:18:25.830 you're getting from them, but I still don't think the 0:18:25.869 --> 0:18:27.929 general public knows how bad that defense is and how 0:18:27.990 --> 0:18:29.900 bad the offensive line is for Green Bay. 0:18:33.700 --> 0:18:35.220 But yeah, I just, was that your cat? 0:18:35.980 --> 0:18:37.080 Yeah, man. She's just not. 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.659 She's a goddamn menace. She is a menace. 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:44.720 She is, man. But yeah, I just, I don't know 0:18:44.740 --> 0:18:46.460 what to do here, brother. I'm too close to it. It's, 0:18:46.859 --> 0:18:48.419 I can see it going wrong in so many different ways. 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.889 Cause this Kyler Murray, but this is the moment at 0:18:51.950 --> 0:18:55.850 home here with this team. I mean, under, under two still, 0:18:55.890 --> 0:18:57.230