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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to petting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets.

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Speaker 2: It's me Joey p Joe Pi's Apia and this is

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Speaker 2: bp NFL. It's time for Week six, which means we

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Speaker 2: got to dive into the data with our good friend

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Speaker 2: Sam Hoppin, who's got all the numbers to help you

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Speaker 2: cash all the bets in week six. And Week six

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Speaker 2: is getting off to a bang here. We haven't even

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Speaker 2: played a game yet, but we also have a coaching vacancy.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, Robert Sala is out as Jets head coach.

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Speaker 2: Kind of a stunner to me, honestly, I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think this is an awful move. I'm old enough to

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Speaker 2: remember when the Jets were on an upward trajectory and

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Speaker 2: things were going well for that organization.

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Speaker 1: Is this young.

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Speaker 2: Charismatic leader, Robert Sala came in with a lot of pedigree,

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Speaker 2: very well liked by all of his players. All they

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Speaker 2: needed was a quarterback, and now that quarterback has been

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Speaker 2: his undoing. I feel like I want to send an

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Speaker 2: edible arrangement to Robert Sala this morning.

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Speaker 1: Sam, I really do.

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Speaker 3: Look, Joe, just wait and sell the Jets. Get Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna have a great defense and then the Jets

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Speaker 3: will play well. Hiate that has not been the case.

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Speaker 3: Feel feel bad for Robert Slick. He was obviously the scapegoat.

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Speaker 3: This defense has been playing extremely well so far to

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Speaker 3: start the season after a rough start against San Francisco,

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Speaker 3: and it's it's the offense that's been been looking bad.

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Speaker 3: But it's I'm shocked that they made the move in season.

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Speaker 3: I think there were again other potential scapegoats that they

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Speaker 3: could have gone with. And it's easier to fire a

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Speaker 3: coach than than fire a quarterback as well. So just

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Speaker 3: a messy and an unfortunate situation for for solid sounds

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Speaker 3: like jeff Olbrooke, who is the defensive coordinator for the Jets,

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Speaker 3: is going to be stepping in as interim head coach,

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Speaker 3: and we'll be talking about their their matchup against the

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Speaker 3: Bills here shortly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's our lead to one of the first games

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Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about in terms of potential line movement.

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Speaker 1: Well, duh.

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Speaker 2: Obviously that's gonna change even more now after the news

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Speaker 2: this morning, So I'm so glad that was at the

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Speaker 2: top of our list already.

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Speaker 1: Sam Hoppin always has his finger.

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Speaker 2: On the pulse, and of course we want you to

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Speaker 2: have the finger on the pulse too, and the way

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Speaker 2: to do that is to stay on top of all

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Speaker 2: of your betting using the Betting Pros app, sink your

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Speaker 2: sports folks for free, track all your bets and also

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Speaker 2: get free stuff because we're giving away a Michael Strahan

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Speaker 2: jersey again for free from our good friends at Pristineauction

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Speaker 2: dot com.

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Speaker 1: All you need to do is heat to Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: Dot com slash contest, complete the form and either download

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Speaker 2: the Betting Pros app, leave a review of the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros podcast, or subscribe to our social media channels Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros on X, on TikTok and on Betting Pros NFL

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Speaker 2: on Instagram. The more actions you complete, the more entries

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Speaker 2: you receive. And just like that, that Michael Strahand jersey

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Speaker 2: can be yours. The Giants a more respectable organization in

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Speaker 2: the New York area.

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Speaker 1: But I digress.

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Speaker 2: We'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel,

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Speaker 2: so make sure you ring the bell for notif its

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Speaker 2: right here on the YouTube and subscribed to our YouTube

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Speaker 2: as well. All right, Sam, I already looked at the

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Speaker 2: odds for the AFC East. They have shifted significantly in

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Speaker 2: the last few minutes minus two thirty for the Buffalo

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Speaker 2: Bills plus three fifty for the Jets. So the gap

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Speaker 2: is widening, and these two teams are gonna square off

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Speaker 2: this week on a standalone football game. It doesn't get

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Speaker 2: much better than this in terms of drama. But I

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Speaker 2: don't think things are going to go well here for

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Speaker 2: the New York Jets. Let's talk about Jets Bills. What

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Speaker 2: do you have for the people? Our first game to

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Speaker 2: discuss for Week six.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we saw this game open with Bills as

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Speaker 3: two and a half point favorites. That moved out to

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Speaker 3: them as three point favorites, but now seems like there's

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Speaker 3: two and a half's to cross the board. I haven't

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Speaker 3: seen any market movement with the Robert Sala firing. I

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Speaker 3: mentioned that, you know, obviously he's been in charge of

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Speaker 3: the defense and that defense has been playing well. Ulbrich

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Speaker 3: gonna step in here as interim head coach, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: But you know, sometimes we see a dynamic where the

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Speaker 3: interim head coach sort of gets a little bit of

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Speaker 3: a bump because it's a toxic situation. Similar to the

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Speaker 3: Las Vegas Raiders last year where Antonio Pierce came in

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Speaker 3: and he was loved by the players. But I don't

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Speaker 3: think we have a situation like that here. It was

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Speaker 3: just the Jets front office getting impatient. They needed to

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Speaker 3: make a switch and try to get some new blood

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Speaker 3: or fresh start in the building. And the defense, like

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Speaker 3: I mentioned, has not been the problem, so I don't

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Speaker 3: think we get that. Where I want to point to

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Speaker 3: is the quarterback situation, which again many will more likely

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Speaker 3: blame Aaron Rodgers for this, but he is dealing with

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Speaker 3: a low angle spring. He said he's expected to be

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Speaker 3: good to go for the game this upcoming weekend, but

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Speaker 3: that is something to monitor. Josh Allen had a really

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Speaker 3: interesting situation this past Sunday where he left the game

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Speaker 3: to get evaluated for a concussion and then came back

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Speaker 3: like a player or two later. It seemed like he

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Speaker 3: was fine, But I don't want to make an assumption

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Speaker 3: that he's going to play because we've seen things like

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Speaker 3: with Tua in years past of him leaving a game

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Speaker 3: for concussion, coming back and then not playing in future weeks.

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Speaker 3: So these two quarterbacks dealing with some injuries, I would

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Speaker 3: give them a better than fifty percent chance that they

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Speaker 3: are going to play, probably better than eighty percent chance,

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Speaker 3: but something that could and will move the market if

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Speaker 3: they are not playing.

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Speaker 2: All right, fun piece here stat about just how good

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Speaker 2: that Robert solid defense has been since twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: first in points per drive first, and EPA per play

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Speaker 2: third and success rate.

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Speaker 1: There you go.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think the defense was the problem. It's

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Speaker 2: clear what the problem is, yea. And the problem is

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Speaker 2: still in that building and I'm sorry, like it's just

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Speaker 2: is the moment they had that exchange where Robert Salah

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Speaker 2: went to embrace him a couple of weeks ago, when

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Speaker 2: Rogers did that weird pushback, that's when you knew he

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Speaker 2: was gonna throw him under the bus at some point.

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Speaker 2: The lack of responsibility this man takes for failure is stunning.

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Speaker 2: And I've always said it back to the Green Bay

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Speaker 2: d your cheese head, you know it. You guys never

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Speaker 2: like to talk about it because everybody in the Green

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Speaker 2: Bay fan base is very nice and always wants nice

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Speaker 2: things and they're good people.

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Speaker 1: But the truth.

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Speaker 3: Is out there.

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Speaker 1: You just gotta look for it with your eyes.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's get to game two here we're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about let's talk about the Raiders and Steelers. Talk

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Speaker 2: about replacements. Well, Gardner Minshall got replaced by O'Connell, so

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Speaker 2: unsure toy there. The Steelers back to back losses, tough

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Speaker 2: ones too. On the road against the Colts. You know,

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Speaker 2: they played flat in the first half and then slowly

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Speaker 2: worked their bay back into that game and then fell

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Speaker 2: short and home. You had that weird weather delay, a

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Speaker 2: sloppy field, all that stuff, but excuses you can, you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of stick him at this point you got to

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Speaker 2: get a w here. It seems like a good matchup

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Speaker 2: where the Steelers would just go in and take advantage

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Speaker 2: of the Raiders, especially without Devonte Adams.

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Speaker 1: But let's talk about this one.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, when I first saw this game on the board,

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Speaker 3: I was like, haven't we seen this game played already

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Speaker 3: this year? Like it feels like these two teams are

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Speaker 3: like in these yeah, low scoring, sort of defensive slugfest

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Speaker 3: type games. But this open with the Steelers is two

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Speaker 3: and a half point favorites moved out to three. There's

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Speaker 3: been some buyback here on the Raiders. With the threes

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Speaker 3: that are out, they're heavily juiced towards towards Las Vegas,

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Speaker 3: and this is another game with quarterback questions on the

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh side. Again, similar to josh All, we saw Justin

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Speaker 3: Fields leave the game for a couple of plays to

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Speaker 3: get evaluated for a concussion. He came back, But honestly,

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Speaker 3: it feels like Mike Tomlin is looking for any excuse

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Speaker 3: to not Justin Fields and not have him as the starter,

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Speaker 3: Like he's not committing to Fields as the long term quarterback,

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Speaker 3: even though Russell Wilson continues to just be the emergency

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Speaker 3: third quarterback. So does this potentially open the door for

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Speaker 3: a quarterback change. I think that quarterback change would potentially

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Speaker 3: have a bigger impact on the market than in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Gardner Minshew got benched for Aidan O'Connell. At

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Speaker 3: the time of this recording, there has not been any

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Speaker 3: decision from the Raiders as to whether it's to who's

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Speaker 3: going to start this week, so I personally think it's

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Speaker 3: going to be O'Connell. It seems like Pierce is just

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Speaker 3: like frustrated and done with Gardner Minshew right now. I

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Speaker 3: think if they haven't said who it's going to be,

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Speaker 3: then there's going to be a switch. But again, I

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Speaker 3: think this is a situation where both of these quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: from a a team power rating perspective are grading out

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Speaker 3: pretty similar, so probably aren't moving the line that much,

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Speaker 3: if at all.

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Speaker 2: All Right, last game we're gonna talk about here before

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Speaker 2: we get to a look in the future Eagles Browns. Now,

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Speaker 2: I'm not real comfortable with Nick Sirianni's decision making the

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Speaker 2: buye came at the perfect time for the Eagles with

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Speaker 2: not one but two major injuries at wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: So the assumption, as we.

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Speaker 2: Get AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith back, that's what we're

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Speaker 2: hoping for. Now, we don't know that for sure as

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Speaker 2: of recording this yet, that is the hope. That's what

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Speaker 2: everybody's lighting a candle in church for in Philadelphia. But

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Speaker 2: that numbers does seem like a lot too. My only

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Speaker 2: concern with this game is I understand Cleveland Browns can't

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Speaker 2: get out of their own way. They are a problem.

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Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson has played terribly. My concern is at some

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Speaker 2: point in this game, the pivot happens and Winston, who

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Speaker 2: is fast and loose with the football, makes this game

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Speaker 2: a little closer. Nine is a big number. I'm a

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Speaker 2: little edgy about this game. I talk about it yesterday

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Speaker 2: if you missed it on the show Andrew and Eericks

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Speaker 2: and I kind of went back and forth on this

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Speaker 2: one a little bit. So go back and watch it

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Speaker 2: on the YouTube or listen on the podcast. But where

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Speaker 2: are you at right now when it comes to Brown's Eagles,

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Speaker 2: because I'm still on the uneasy side of the nine.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so most places have this at the Eagles favored

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Speaker 3: by eight and a half right now, there are some

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Speaker 3: nines and nine and a half's out there towards Cleveland.

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Speaker 3: I think the important thing to keep in mind here,

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Speaker 3: like you mentioned, is I think the market is assuming

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Speaker 3: that the Eagles will be at full health with aj

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Speaker 3: Brown and Devonte Smith returning. So don't you know, look

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Speaker 3: for a scenario where they are deemed active and then

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Speaker 3: you're sort of double counting for that. I think that's

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Speaker 3: already baked into the market. I think this moves towards

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Speaker 3: Cleveland if one or both of them are moved excuse me,

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Speaker 3: ruled out from this game on the Cleveland side, I

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Speaker 3: mean they have their heels dug in on n Watson

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Speaker 3: continuing to start. They were down tremendously against Washington, and

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Speaker 3: I think there was like five minutes left in the

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Speaker 3: game before they turned to Jameis Winston. Like, whether it's

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Speaker 3: coming from the ownership or whoever, it seems like they're

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Speaker 3: just going to continue to roll out Deshaun Watson and

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Speaker 3: don't really care about the optics or what the public

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Speaker 3: is saying about how poor he has been. And then finally,

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Speaker 3: the Browns continue to get decimated by injuries. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: try to do this in one breath. David and Joku

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Speaker 3: left the game with an injury. Ethan Postich, their their center,

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Speaker 3: is getting an MRI on his knee. Obo Okuranquo left

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Speaker 3: the game with an illness. Rodney McCleod left the game

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Speaker 3: with a face last laceration. He came back. Denzil Ward

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Speaker 3: was ruled out with a hamstring injury. Grant Delpit was

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Speaker 3: evaluated for a head injury. Jeremiah wusu Kora was dealing

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Speaker 3: with cramping. Like they continue to get injury after injury,

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Speaker 3: and you know there are certain situations where once you

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Speaker 3: get down to the third fourth string guy, like going

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Speaker 3: to the fifth or sixth string guy is not going

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Speaker 3: to change things. But the continual reshuffling of pieces on

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Speaker 3: the offensive line, in the defensive secondary, this is just

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Speaker 3: not good. It's not sustainable. Even if they do make

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Speaker 3: the switch at quarterback, there are so many moving pieces

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Speaker 3: throughout this team that there's just no consistency that you

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Speaker 3: can get.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: Consistency certainly something that the Cleveland Browns as an organization

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Speaker 2: have lacked for basically my entire life. Like I remember

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Speaker 2: the Bernie Kozar years being good as a small child.

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Speaker 2: Other than that, it's been pretty rough out there in

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Speaker 2: Cleveland in those treats. All right, let's get a look

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Speaker 2: at the future. We already talked a little bit about

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Speaker 2: met AFC East and some of those lines getting drawn

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Speaker 2: pretty clearly that you know, it's Buffalo's division to lose

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Speaker 2: at this point now. And normally it's funny because when

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Speaker 2: a team fires a coach, I usually go into the

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Speaker 2: oh everybody rallies around and plays really well. I just

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Speaker 2: can't get there with the gents and bills.

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Speaker 1: I just can't do it.

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Speaker 2: Normally, I am running to bet the underdog team, especially

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Speaker 2: a home underdog team, after a coach firing.

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Speaker 1: Ah, it's my favorite time.

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Speaker 2: It typically pays off every single time, can't do it,

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Speaker 2: won't do it. But if you want more data also

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Speaker 2: and you want to see how it works, use the

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Speaker 2: Betting Pro Systems tool. Our new Betting Pro Systems tool

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00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,480
Speaker 2: is designed to help you find winning strategies to make

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Speaker 2: smarter bets. You can look at how teams perform after

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Speaker 2: head coaching firings. You can customize your betting systems by sport,

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Speaker 2: bet type, and timeframe and find the best opportunities using

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Speaker 2: real time data and expert analysis. Track your performance too,

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Speaker 2: of the different betting systems you create over time and

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Speaker 2: optimize your bets to increase your chances of success. Download

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Speaker 2: the Betting Pros app today and elevate your betting strategy

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Speaker 2: to start betting smarter, not harder. All right, Sam, let's

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Speaker 2: take a look into the future. What do you have

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Speaker 2: here based on some of the things that you saw

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Speaker 2: in week five that now we got to pay attention

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Speaker 2: to on the big board.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm going back to the Browns here looking

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Speaker 3: at their win total which is currently sitting. There's some

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Speaker 3: four and a half's out there. They're currently they're one

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Speaker 3: and four to start the season, So some four and

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Speaker 3: a half's out there there are some five and a

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Speaker 3: halfs that are heavily juiced towards the under, but I

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Speaker 3: like four under four and a half right now. Impredictable

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Speaker 3: is a website that uses betting markets to derive team

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Speaker 3: power ratings, and I shared a chart yesterday that we're

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Speaker 3: going to pull up here to look at a team's

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Speaker 3: year to DNKYAR to date strength of schedule and their

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Speaker 3: future strength of schedule based on the average power rating

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Speaker 3: of the teams that they faced and will face. So

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Speaker 3: so far this year, the Browns have faced the fifth

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Speaker 3: easiest strength of schedule. They're one and four. Their only

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Speaker 3: win came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are also only

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Speaker 3: one in four. Now they are tied with the Chicago

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Speaker 3: Bears for having the most difficult remaining strength of schedule.

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Speaker 3: They have to face the Ravens twice, the Bengals twice,

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Speaker 3: and I just again, with all of these injuries, with

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Speaker 3: their continued insistence on starting de Shaun Watson, I don't

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Speaker 3: see how they get over this four and a half

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Speaker 3: wins now. Obviously it's possible their defense is solid, but

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Speaker 3: with all these injuries they're able to be taken care of.

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Speaker 3: I don't think they win this week against the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: so I like their win total under There was a

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Speaker 3: market out there yesterday on FanDuel for the Browns to

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Speaker 3: have the worst record in the league at the end

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Speaker 3: of the season. That market was taken down when I

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Speaker 3: first when I looked this morning, I'm thinking it might

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Speaker 3: be because of the solid firing. But when I looked yesterday,

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Speaker 3: the Browns were at five to one to have the

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Speaker 3: worst record. I think there's a little bit of value

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Speaker 3: in that. Dead heat rules do apply for that on

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Speaker 3: fandos specifically, But again, with the way the roster is looking,

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Speaker 3: their offense can't generate anything. Even if Jamis Winston does

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Speaker 3: end up starting a couple of games, he's not such

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Speaker 3: a massive upgrade and he still comes with a ton

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Speaker 3: of variants that he's going to will this team to

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Speaker 3: like an eight and nine record. So I'm full on

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Speaker 3: fading the Browns.

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Speaker 2: Probably a smart thing to do that typically works out

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Speaker 2: pretty well. All right, let's get to some of the

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Speaker 2: numbers here. We already talked about some of the line movement.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about some of the look into the future.

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Speaker 2: Now let's talk about stats. Let's start with your Green

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Speaker 2: Bay Packers. Here, Packers came up with another w. Tucker

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Speaker 2: Craft had a great game, Jordan Love not as prolific

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Speaker 2: as I was hoping for. I was looking for the

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Speaker 2: smash three hundred yard game where Jayden Reid at one

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Speaker 2: hundred yards and two tuddies.

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Speaker 1: I didn't get it.

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Speaker 2: I gotta say I'm a little disappointed in the Packers' performance.

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Speaker 2: But we're back at it again this week for the Packers.

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Speaker 2: So what's the number that stands out to you the

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Speaker 2: most here when we're talking about that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Packers are just really inconsistent both on

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Speaker 3: offense and defense right now. They have a high EPA

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Speaker 3: per play but a lower success rate. So on offense

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Speaker 3: there's zero point zero three EPA per play, ranks thirteenth.

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Speaker 3: They have a thirty nine percent success rate, which ranks

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Speaker 3: twenty third. So that sort of tells you they're living

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Speaker 3: a little bit off of explosive place. Like you saw

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Speaker 3: the long Tugger Craft touchdown, you saw the long deep

339
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Speaker 3: shot to Jayden Reid, but down to down, they're not

340
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Speaker 3: really moving the ball super consistently. On defense, it's even

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Speaker 3: more stark up a difference, So they're negative zero point

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Speaker 3: eight two EPA per play ranks seventh. They're forty seven

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Speaker 3: point eight percent percent success rate allowed ranks twenty eighth.

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Speaker 3: So they are just they're living off of turnovers. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the fact that Xavier McKinney has an interception every game.

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Speaker 1: It's unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: Is you know what's funny, Sam, There's a guy out

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Speaker 2: there right now who's pretty good at defense, maybe a

349
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Speaker 2: special assistant consultant for the defense. Robert Sali is not

350
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Speaker 2: doing anything rest of the year. I don't know what

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Speaker 2: his contract says, but he might be free. He might

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Speaker 2: have a time on his hands.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. But the again, this this defense is it's a

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Speaker 3: it's a ben don't break type of defense. They're they're

355
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Speaker 3: allowing h some big, big player, excuse me. They're allowing

356
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Speaker 3: a lot of downtown consistency. They're letting teams move the

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Speaker 3: ball against them and then they force the turnover and

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Speaker 3: get the ball right back. And I think with this

359
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Speaker 3: lack of consistency, it's targeting some of the lines either

360
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Speaker 3: for or against the Packers. If you think they're going

361
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Speaker 3: to continue to have success with these explosive plays, which

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Speaker 3: they might be able to do against the Cardinals, this week. Then,

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Speaker 3: you know, stretching that atline or excuse me, all spread

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00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 3: out a little bit I think is worthwhile. But if

365
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 3: you if you like the Cardinals this week, betting them

366
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Speaker 3: on the money line or even to win by by

367
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Speaker 3: two and a half something like that too. Again, assume

368
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Speaker 3: that these teams are going to take advantage of their

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Speaker 3: lack of consistency.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's funny because Arizona is one of those

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Speaker 2: teams too that jumps up at you sometimes, like last

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Speaker 2: week a perfect example. We talked about the look Ahead show.

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Speaker 2: I said, look, I know this should be a forty

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Speaker 2: nine or get right game, but all I kept thinking

375
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Speaker 2: about was every time Kyler Murray plays a forty nine ers,

376
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Speaker 2: he takes them to the limit win or loss.

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Speaker 1: And it's been like that for a while.

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Speaker 2: And the Cardinals ere, you know, do you get the

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Speaker 2: Cardinals that show up and do that or you get

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals that fall flat against Washington.

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Speaker 1: It's always a tough one right now.

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Speaker 2: But plus two h five I see as the best

383
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Speaker 2: number on betting crows right now for this one for Arizona.

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Speaker 2: That is a very temnting two to one to take.

385
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,479
Speaker 2: Let's switch gears to Detroit and Dallas. Now one that

386
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 2: I think actually does play to the over which is

387
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 2: already a very high number. Sam My logic is, so

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00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 2: many playmakers injuries on defense of the Dallas side. There's

389
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: a lot of guys who can make enough playsier in

390
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Speaker 2: this game on offense and on defense to push this

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Speaker 2: number forward.

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Speaker 1: But how do you see this one?

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Speaker 3: So there are strength on weakness situations on both sides

394
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Speaker 3: of the ball. So when Detroit has the ball, they

395
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Speaker 3: have the number three offense in rushing EPA per play.

396
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 3: The Dallas defense is thirty second in rushing EPF per play.

397
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 3: They can't stop anyone on the ground, and the teams

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Speaker 3: that are facing Dallas know this too. The teams facing

399
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 3: the Cowboys have a negative seven point seven pass right

400
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 3: over expectation, which is third lowest in the league, So

401
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 3: these teams are leaning into running the ball a ton

402
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: against the Cowboys. On the flip side, teams like to

403
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 3: throw the ball against Detroit. Their four point two percent

404
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 3: pass right over expectation against is the second highest in

405
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:17,360
Speaker 3: the league. Dallas's rushing attack on offense is miserable as well.

406
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Speaker 3: They don't have a single rush this year. Five weeks

407
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Speaker 3: into the season over fifteen yards. It was until last

408
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Speaker 3: week that Ceedee Lamp had the longest rush on the team.

409
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Speaker 3: So Detroit, though, is allowing the sixth highest explosive pass

410
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 3: rate this year, and Dallas's ten point six percent explosive

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Speaker 3: pass rate is third highest in the league. So I

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Speaker 3: actually have this game rated closer to a pickup. I

413
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 3: think this game is going to be a little bit

414
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Speaker 3: closer than people think. But where I want to attack

415
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Speaker 3: this game is in some same game parlays sort of

416
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 3: building around this particular narrative that the Lions are going

417
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 3: to lean heavily into the run and the Cowboys are

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00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 3: going to lean into the pass, and not necessarily looking

419
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Speaker 3: at side their totals here, but looking at some extreme

420
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Speaker 3: yardage props for a lot of these these players, you know,

421
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Speaker 3: looking at Ceedee, Lamb, Jamiir Gibbs, and Montgomery over the

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Speaker 3: rushing yards, I mean the median lines, the sort of

423
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Speaker 3: normal over underlines are going to have these matchups taking

424
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: into advantage, so stretching out further, taking one hundred plus

425
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: for both Gibbs and Montgomery, possibly things like that, building

426
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Speaker 3: into this narrative that Detroit runs the ball a ton

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Speaker 3: and has success doing so, and then Dallas turns around

428
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Speaker 3: and passes the ball against them.

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Speaker 2: All right, last one we're gonna talk about, and then

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Speaker 2: we'll talk a little survivor pool with shall Honestly, you

431
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Speaker 2: might have won survivor pools already with the way things

432
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Speaker 2: have gone. It's been a very rough season for that.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about Houston for a moment. They take on

434
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Speaker 2: the Patriots this week. Now, the Patriot number here, it's

435
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Speaker 2: thirty eight. Is the best number you can get for

436
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 2: the under. This my favorite bet of the week already.

437
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: I've already locked it in bettingpros dot COM's Last Joe.

438
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter whatever the number is. I see New England,

439
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: I bet the under because that offensive line is absolutely

440
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: just awful. Nico Collins' health question mark in this game too.

441
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: But let's talk about the Houston Texans here for a moment.

442
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: It feels like a smash game for them. But even so,

443
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 2: that doesn't necessarily mean that the Patriots can hold up

444
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 2: there and of the bargain.

445
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 1: So, what are some of the numbers you're seeing.

446
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 2: Here that inform your decision making process when it comes

447
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 2: to Texans Patriots?

448
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually don't know that this is a smash

449
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 3: spot for the texts. If you look at the teams

450
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 3: on a whole, that's sort of where they sit in

451
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: the meadow of the NFL, like they're on two opposite

452
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 3: ends of the spectrum. But Houston doesn't really hasn't shown

453
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: an ability to blow out teams so far, and part

454
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,919
Speaker 3: of that is how poorly they've done on early downs.

455
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 3: They ranked thirtieth in early down EPA for play thirty

456
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 3: first in early down success, but they rank eleventh in

457
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 3: third down conversion rate. So CJ. Stroud and his wonders

458
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 3: are saving this team, saving these drives on third down.

459
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: I think this is an indictment a little bit on

460
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 3: Bobby Slow because they're wasting some first and second down

461
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 3: runs and getting behind the sticks. They're having to convert

462
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: these long third downs that are keeping the drives alive,

463
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: and when they're not able to do so, they go

464
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: through and out pretty quickly. There is some there could

465
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 3: be a change at quarterback for New England. I think

466
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 3: they probably go with Jacoby Brissett. Again. There have been

467
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 3: some rumblings that Drake may could start, and that changes

468
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 3: things quite a bit in my opinion. Where Jacoby Brissett

469
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 3: brought a certain floor to the offense for New England.

470
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 3: Drake May could provide a higher ceiling, but I think

471
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,959
Speaker 3: has a much lower floor as well. But if it

472
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 3: is Jacoby Brissette, I think he sort of has enough

473
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: and the New England defense has enough to keep this

474
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: within that touchdown spread.

475
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

476
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 2: Look, I just don't want to throw the kid behind

477
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: that offensive line. I just think it's there's no good

478
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: that can come from that. From a development standpoint. People

479
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: make the argument, well, he's a more mobile quarterback. Yeah,

480
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 2: that's fine, but he's gonna be running for his life.

481
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: He's not gonna be able to develop it all. So

482
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: the longer you could push us off, the better. It's

483
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: a last season anyway, you might as well take your lumps.

484
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 2: Get some good offensive lineman next year in the draft,

485
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 2: especially if you have a high pick, which you're probably

486
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 2: going to again New England, which is a good thing.

487
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 2: But yeah, I keep hearing these rumblings too about Drake May,

488
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: and I get it, you're getting bored of watching Jacoby

489
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: Brissette lose. But it's better than watching Drake May run

490
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 2: around the field and get pooned all over the place

491
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 2: and just get dropped everywhere by pass rush all over

492
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 2: the place, especially against the Texans this week.

493
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: It's not exactly my idea.

494
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,360
Speaker 2: Of fun, all right, Sam, Eliminations have happen and quite

495
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 2: a bit in Survivor Pools, it's been rough. I was

496
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 2: out early on, but like, if I'm looking at the board,

497
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 2: I've still got the falcons out there. I'm taking the

498
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: Falcons against the Carolina Panthers.

499
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: It was fun for a.

500
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 2: Couple of weeks ago, you know, and Andy Dalton kind

501
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: of had that little renaissance a week, but Panthers are

502
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 2: being back to the Panthers.

503
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: I would take the Falcons. That offense starting to hum.

504
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 2: Now we've seen Kirk Cousins starting to get more and

505
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: more comfortable, an incredible performance last week by Kirk Cousins,

506
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 2: Drake London, Darna Mooney, the whole collective there. I would

507
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: just take the Falcons if I still had them available.

508
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 2: Where would you go this week in Survivor Pools?

509
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I was gonna lean towards the Eagles

510
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 3: here because you know everything I've said about the Browns

511
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 3: and that assumes that Devontae Smith and A J. Brown

512
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 3: are back. But I actually do think I prefer the

513
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,239
Speaker 3: Falcons here a little bit. The Panthers are dealing with

514
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball

515
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 3: as well, Atlanta coming off of extended rest having played

516
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 3: on Thursday Night Football this past week, and the Eagles

517
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 3: have the easiest rest of season strength of schedule, or

518
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: excuse me, one of the top three easiest strength of

519
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 3: schedules left. So I think there will be some weeks

520
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: in the future where they will be able to be used.

521
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 3: So I'm actually going to go with the Falcons with

522
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 3: you on this, and if the Falcons lose, then close

523
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 3: up shop for us. This is I don't know what

524
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: else there.

525
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: Is, hey, man, just keep buying back into those survivor pools.

526
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 2: I got a buddy who's in one that's a very

527
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 2: high stakes one, and he had he went picked the

528
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: Jags last week and he said, on my nuts, and

529
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:39,719
Speaker 2: I said, no, I don't think you are.

530
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: I saw what options you have.

531
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 2: I think the Jags up against the at home against

532
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: the Colts might be the best way. And he said,

533
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 2: there's only like forty people left in that league and

534
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: it's for several thousands of dollars. So I mean, this

535
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 2: is what's going on. It's getting weird out there in

536
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: those Survivor pool streets. It's getting weird out there in

537
00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: the NFL too.

538
00:27:59,240 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: Hang on to your hat.

539
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 2: It's luckily we have Sam Hoppin to keep us grounded

540
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: here with the hard, cold math and the numbers. So

541
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 2: make sure you follow Sam's workover at Betting Pros. Follow

542
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: him too at the Betting Pros app, but also check

543
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 2: out all the work over Bettingpros dot com that Sam

544
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 2: does every single week for us. Also download the app

545
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 2: and go get in the contest betting Pros dot com

546
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 2: slash contest because we're giving away that Michael's Treyhan Jersey.

547
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

548
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 2: game goes on for Sam Hoppin.

549
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

550
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

551
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

552
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

553
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,320
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554
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

555
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros