1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

2
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 2: It's on target.

3
00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 3: It is good, yo. That's when you have fun, when

4
00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:16,480
Speaker 3: you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking for when that

5
00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:24,520
Speaker 3: was good? Ready, go, I'm bolder on the Baseball Powell.

6
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:28,320
Speaker 2: Way outside.

7
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:35,520
Speaker 4: Possible the while event.

8
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 2: There it is whoa whoa Happy March everybody.

9
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,360
Speaker 5: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. Brendan Lasheen with you

10
00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,360
Speaker 5: today and we are going to dive in to the

11
00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:55,400
Speaker 5: Giffen Guide to Betting March Madness. Doctor Nick Giffen is

12
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,120
Speaker 5: joining us today on the pod. Nick is a predictive

13
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,200
Speaker 5: analyst for the Action Network. He's one of our newest

14
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,360
Speaker 5: members of the team. He has a PhD in mathematics

15
00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,160
Speaker 5: from NC State. He's been betting college basketball at a

16
00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 5: high level analytically for close to a decade. Nick, it

17
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 5: is great to have you with us. It is a

18
00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 5: great time of year, my friend.

19
00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:18,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's great to be here. I'm so excited. We

20
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,600
Speaker 3: have games tonight. Oh my goodness, sixty eight teams. The

21
00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:22,840
Speaker 3: one's going to be standing at the end.

22
00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 2: It's going to be great.

23
00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 5: Yes, we have two games tonight in First four Action

24
00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,399
Speaker 5: and Dayton that we will dive into.

25
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:30,880
Speaker 2: And then of course I want to mention as well.

26
00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,440
Speaker 5: We're going to have Jason Lisk of Team Rankings joining

27
00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,840
Speaker 5: us about midway through the show. He gives us a

28
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,200
Speaker 5: Team Rankings understanding Team Rankings working with Action Network this

29
00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,319
Speaker 5: year for the tournament, so Jason provides unique perspective. We'll

30
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,560
Speaker 5: get to him later on in the show to kind

31
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 5: of give folks a break from us too. But the

32
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,160
Speaker 5: GIFN guide your betting scheme betting the tournament. You have

33
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,320
Speaker 5: a specific guide of how you go about it, and

34
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 5: please let's begin by just taking us through those basic

35
00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,480
Speaker 5: bullet points of how you go about betting March Madness.

36
00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 1: Absolutely so.

37
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,280
Speaker 3: So this like kind of system or scheme, if you

38
00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,480
Speaker 3: want to call it. The idea is we want to

39
00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,160
Speaker 3: find higher seeded teams that we think can get far

40
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,240
Speaker 3: in the tournament. And what we want to do is

41
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,960
Speaker 3: instead of betting them to win the national title, you

42
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,760
Speaker 3: can actually get better bang for your buck by betting

43
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,359
Speaker 3: them on the money line every game, or in some cases,

44
00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,480
Speaker 3: if you have a favorite, maybe instead of betting a

45
00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:28,960
Speaker 3: money line, you bet them on the spread in the

46
00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 3: first game, like we're picking like a five or a

47
00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,520
Speaker 3: six seed in the first game, but after that you're

48
00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,320
Speaker 3: kind of betting a money line. And if you think

49
00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 3: about like a coin flip, Let's say we bet twenty

50
00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 3: five dollars on a coin flip. If we win, we

51
00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,799
Speaker 3: get our twenty five back, and then another twenty five dollars,

52
00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,320
Speaker 3: so even money. So after one coin flip, if we win,

53
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,440
Speaker 3: we'll have fifty dollars. After two, we'll have one hundred.

54
00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,040
Speaker 3: You gotta win six games to win the national championship,

55
00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,359
Speaker 3: you know, from the first not to play in games,

56
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 3: but from the first round. So if we do that

57
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,280
Speaker 3: six times, if we do those six coin flips and

58
00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,280
Speaker 3: we win all six of those bets, we end up

59
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,280
Speaker 3: with sixteen hundred at the end, sixteen hundred dollars versus

60
00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,320
Speaker 3: a twenty five dollars initial investment is around sixty four

61
00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,880
Speaker 3: to one, So we now have sixty four times the

62
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 3: amount we started with. So let's let's look at a

63
00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,960
Speaker 3: team that's near sixty four to one in odds to

64
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,359
Speaker 3: win the whole tournament. They would have to win six

65
00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,280
Speaker 3: times Arkansas sixty six to one at bet MGM. If

66
00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,480
Speaker 3: we look at them, they be favorite and game number one.

67
00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,520
Speaker 3: If things went to plan and they face Connecticut in

68
00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 3: Game two. They'd basically be a coin flip in that game.

69
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,079
Speaker 3: And again, if things went to plan, they'd probably be

70
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,040
Speaker 3: an underdog in the Sweet sixteen, the Elite eight, the Final.

71
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,920
Speaker 1: Four in the finals. So overall, we're not actually getting

72
00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:37,440
Speaker 1: even money on Arkansas.

73
00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,080
Speaker 3: If if we bet a money line every game, we'd

74
00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,120
Speaker 3: be getting underdog money on them, and if they won

75
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,040
Speaker 3: the national title, we'd be returning way more than sixty

76
00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 3: four to one. If they won the national championship, you

77
00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:49,560
Speaker 3: only get them sixty four to one in odds to

78
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 3: win the national title. So we can apply that, but

79
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,400
Speaker 3: instead of applying it to winning the national championship, we

80
00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,640
Speaker 3: can pick eight teams and stop at the Elite eight,

81
00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,360
Speaker 3: and if one of them makes the Elite.

82
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,560
Speaker 1: Eight, we are going going to make money.

83
00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,560
Speaker 5: Great great way of putting it, because and look Arkansas

84
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,760
Speaker 5: for Nick, here is just an example of what he's

85
00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 5: talking about. So now the idea here, and correct me

86
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:12,320
Speaker 5: if I'm wrong. You want to find you want to

87
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 5: find eight Arkansas. Now, how do we put this system

88
00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:17,360
Speaker 5: to work for the entire bracket?

89
00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 1: The idea?

90
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 3: How do we put this to work? The idea is

91
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,240
Speaker 3: to find eight teams to do this with typically, like

92
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,080
Speaker 3: I said, five seed or lower, and we want one

93
00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 3: of those teams to make the Elite eight. So if

94
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,880
Speaker 3: we do eight teams, you know, let's say you just

95
00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,200
Speaker 3: have a modest bankroll or you just want to invest

96
00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,400
Speaker 3: a little bit in this tournament, have some fun. Twenty

97
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 3: five dollars per team, So that's a two hundred dollars

98
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,000
Speaker 3: initial investment if you pick eight teams, If one like

99
00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,159
Speaker 3: middle seeded team, you know, like a five or a

100
00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 3: six seed makes the Elite eight. With this system, we'll

101
00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:46,880
Speaker 3: probably get about our money back. If you think the

102
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,760
Speaker 3: Arkansas example, small favoringe game one, coin flip game two,

103
00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 3: small underdog game three, probably recoup our money back. If

104
00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,120
Speaker 3: one underdog team makes it, like a nine, eight, nine, ten,

105
00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,839
Speaker 3: eleven seed, twelve seed makes it, we will definitely be

106
00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,080
Speaker 3: profitable if they make the Elite eight. And if just

107
00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,640
Speaker 3: any two teams make it will be profitable. And if

108
00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:07,560
Speaker 3: nothing hits, your out two hundred bucks. So it's not

109
00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 3: that bad twenty five dollars per team.

110
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:09,760
Speaker 1: Eight teams.

111
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,039
Speaker 3: If you have a much higher risk tolerance or a

112
00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 3: bigger bankroll, you can do more. If not, you can

113
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,560
Speaker 3: do less per team. But the same idea remains, it

114
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,479
Speaker 3: just scales to the dollar value. But the other thing is,

115
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,600
Speaker 3: there's eight portions of the bracket, eight portions of eight teams,

116
00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,919
Speaker 3: and we want to target one team from each of

117
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 3: those eighths. And it's not quite always going to work

118
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 3: like that because you can't always find a good undervalued

119
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,520
Speaker 3: team in each eighth of the bracket. So sometimes we'll

120
00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:37,680
Speaker 3: pick two teams from the same eighth of the bracket,

121
00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:39,680
Speaker 3: and if they face each other before the Elite eight,

122
00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 3: that's great too, because then we can just cash out

123
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,919
Speaker 3: our winnings on those two teams. Like I said, occasionally,

124
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:45,680
Speaker 3: if we pick a five or sixty, we might want

125
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,080
Speaker 3: to bet them spread instead of money line, especially if

126
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,039
Speaker 3: they're gonna be something like a minus two hundred favored

127
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,520
Speaker 3: or minus one fifty. Maybe better to bet them on

128
00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,480
Speaker 3: the spread. And if they miss the spread, we just

129
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 3: kind of count that as an l Even if they

130
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 3: win the game but don't cover, we would lose that

131
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:00,960
Speaker 3: money and so we be out on that portion of

132
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,279
Speaker 3: the system. But yeah, that's really how it works. Eight teams,

133
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,520
Speaker 3: twenty five dollars, and we're hoping for one to hit

134
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:06,200
Speaker 3: the elite.

135
00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,000
Speaker 2: We will get into Nick's picks later on the show

136
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,320
Speaker 2: as well. I sort of buried that lead as well.

137
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,200
Speaker 5: Going back now to twenty seventeen, take us through how

138
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,359
Speaker 5: this particular guide we're calling it Kiffin's Guide because alliteration

139
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 5: is great. Take us through, year by year, last five years,

140
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:23,360
Speaker 5: how this has gone for you.

141
00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:25,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I mean we kind of really have a

142
00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,200
Speaker 3: three year sample size. Obviously, we didn't have the tournament

143
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,640
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty and last year I sat this scheme

144
00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,080
Speaker 3: out a little bit because there was so many games

145
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,480
Speaker 3: miss due to COVID weird situations.

146
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,039
Speaker 5: Serious, Nick, you didn't invest in Oral Roberts, You cowered?

147
00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:41,599
Speaker 1: Come on, I know, right, I know.

148
00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,919
Speaker 3: But so the analytics part of that, and this actually

149
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,719
Speaker 3: applied to college football as well. There was actually some

150
00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 3: papers out about how really accurate computer models that are great,

151
00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,520
Speaker 3: you know, for helping you guide your bets in both

152
00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:57,760
Speaker 3: football and basketball.

153
00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,080
Speaker 1: We're just less accurate in.

154
00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 3: Twenty twenty twenty twenty one season because of all the

155
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:06,120
Speaker 3: COVID craziness. So seventeen eighteen and nineteen, in twenty seventeen

156
00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:09,320
Speaker 3: is when I started this specific thing, this specific guide.

157
00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:13,320
Speaker 3: I had Xavier, which was an eleven seed as one

158
00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:14,680
Speaker 3: of my eight teams and.

159
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,080
Speaker 1: They made the Elite eight. Back then, I just did

160
00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:18,520
Speaker 1: a twenty dollars initial investment.

161
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,960
Speaker 3: I had recently moved out to Vegas for the fall

162
00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,000
Speaker 3: of twenty sixteen. So this is the twenty sixteen twenty

163
00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,320
Speaker 3: seventeen season. Three twenty bucks on eight different teams, so

164
00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 3: one hundred sixty dollars initial investment. Xavier made it to

165
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,600
Speaker 3: the Elite eight, so all of a sudden, I had

166
00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,520
Speaker 3: eight hundred twenty bucks after starting with twenty bucks. So

167
00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,800
Speaker 3: you know, eight twenty minus one sixty. If I can

168
00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,040
Speaker 3: do the math right, that looks like about a six

169
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:44,480
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty dollars profit to me.

170
00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 1: Then we got our goal.

171
00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,000
Speaker 3: We got our one team to the Elite eight. They

172
00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:53,000
Speaker 3: were playing Gonzaga and I said, what the heck, let's

173
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,480
Speaker 3: go for it. Took Xavier over Gonzaga for a shot

174
00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 3: at over thirty five hundred dollars and lost. But you

175
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,600
Speaker 3: know what I did, I got my oh. I wanted

176
00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:01,960
Speaker 3: to get one team to the Elite eight. I could

177
00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:03,680
Speaker 3: have cashed it out. Maybe I should have cashed out

178
00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 3: half of it or something and put the rest on

179
00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:07,600
Speaker 3: Xavier over Gonzaga.

180
00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: That's not my style.

181
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:10,040
Speaker 3: I didn't care if I lost one hundred and sixty

182
00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,360
Speaker 3: bucks total and my twenty initial investment on Xavier.

183
00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,600
Speaker 1: So that was really good. We got our goal.

184
00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,040
Speaker 3: We could have been up six hundred and sixty bucks

185
00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:22,400
Speaker 3: overall and had a great year. So very very happy

186
00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,960
Speaker 3: about that. Twenty eighteen got Loyola, which was a ten

187
00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,080
Speaker 3: seed that year. We got Loyola to the Elite Eight

188
00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:30,080
Speaker 3: and cashed out, so.

189
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:31,120
Speaker 1: Made money that year.

190
00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,880
Speaker 3: Twenty nineteen, Auburn was a five seed, and so I

191
00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,560
Speaker 3: bet them spread first game. That way, I'm essentially, you know,

192
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,600
Speaker 3: getting minus one to ten ballpark in the first game. Instead,

193
00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 3: I think they're probably a two to one favorite, so

194
00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,560
Speaker 3: a little better return on the first game. They covered

195
00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,679
Speaker 3: the spread in the first game. They made it all

196
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,680
Speaker 3: the way up to the Final four against my Virginia Cavaliers,

197
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,680
Speaker 3: but I cashed them out in the Elite Eight again

198
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,679
Speaker 3: when they faced Kentucky because they had an injury to

199
00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,360
Speaker 3: be a key player. Otherwise actually would have bet them

200
00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,920
Speaker 3: again against Kentucky. Turns out, even with an injury to

201
00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,520
Speaker 3: a key player, they still beat Kentucky, but I cash

202
00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,839
Speaker 3: them out. The Elite eight turned twenty five dollars into

203
00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,000
Speaker 3: four hundred and fifty, So take away the two hundred

204
00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:13,199
Speaker 3: dollars initial investment total, so f two hundred and fifty

205
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:14,839
Speaker 3: dollars profit, we got our one team.

206
00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 1: We doubled our money.

207
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 3: You know, it happened to be with sort of a

208
00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,680
Speaker 3: favorite that your auburn the five seed, but still nice

209
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,320
Speaker 3: to nail a five seed. And three years we got

210
00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 3: one team to the Elite eight. All three years, and

211
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:27,959
Speaker 3: two of those years we got one of those teams

212
00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:28,720
Speaker 3: to the final four.

213
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,600
Speaker 5: Just to remind folks, the idea is to find eight

214
00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,079
Speaker 5: teams typically a five seed or lower, and as you noted,

215
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,720
Speaker 5: you can it's okay to break this rule if it

216
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,560
Speaker 5: applies based on the odds, and then target each of

217
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,200
Speaker 5: those eight to make the Elite eight. So eight is

218
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 5: your key number to all of this. How do we

219
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 5: go about identifying these teams?

220
00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,320
Speaker 3: Having a math PhD helps a little bit, but I

221
00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:51,560
Speaker 3: think we can all do this.

222
00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:52,560
Speaker 1: This is something we can all do.

223
00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,040
Speaker 3: What we want to do is we want to predict

224
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,199
Speaker 3: which teams have a good shot at advancing. Now that

225
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,079
Speaker 3: means we want to look at ditive metrics. There are

226
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 3: what we call forward looking predictive metrics and backward looking

227
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 3: retrodictive metrics, and some ranking systems are forward looking and

228
00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:17,080
Speaker 3: some ranking systems are more backward looking, so they they

229
00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,120
Speaker 3: explain past wins, but they don't necessarily predict future wins

230
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,240
Speaker 3: as well. If you were looking at Virginia Tech, for example,

231
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,319
Speaker 3: Virginia Tech early in mid season, let's say part way

232
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,800
Speaker 3: through the ACC season was like really bad they were

233
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,600
Speaker 3: in terms of their record, I think they were eleven

234
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,160
Speaker 3: and ten or something in people will write them off,

235
00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 3: but the predictive metrics liked them. The backward looking metrics

236
00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,959
Speaker 3: had them ranked really low, the forward looking metrics had

237
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,760
Speaker 3: them ranked still in the twenties or thirties, and Virginia

238
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,160
Speaker 3: Tech went on a hot run and they made the

239
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,600
Speaker 3: NCAA tournament. So we want to look at predictive rankings.

240
00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,600
Speaker 3: There's a lot of ranking systems out there, A couple

241
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,120
Speaker 3: of them the NCAA tournament uses as criteria, So I

242
00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,839
Speaker 3: look at the predict once team rankings.

243
00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:02,680
Speaker 1: We're gonna have. Jason lisk On.

244
00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 3: Is a ranking system, a predictive ranking system, so I

245
00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,400
Speaker 3: use team rankings as one of those. I use Ken Palm.

246
00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,440
Speaker 3: There is actually a site called the Massy Compare, which

247
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,440
Speaker 3: is run by Ken Nassy. He does his own rankings,

248
00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,560
Speaker 3: but he has a list of tons of different ranking systems,

249
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,840
Speaker 3: and if you click up a link at the top,

250
00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,240
Speaker 3: there's an analysis of which ones were actually the most

251
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 3: predictive this year in terms of being able to predict

252
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 3: future games. I blend a bunch of them together. So

253
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,800
Speaker 3: ensembling these models, these rankings together is really good in

254
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,720
Speaker 3: predictive analytics. We like to ensemble models together because it

255
00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,400
Speaker 3: smooths out the rough edges of each one of those

256
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,439
Speaker 3: and especially good when models are done independently from each

257
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,520
Speaker 3: other and with different methodologies. One of the things that

258
00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,920
Speaker 3: helps in certain situations, as we did talk about, is

259
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,120
Speaker 3: the pace of play. Slower paced teams or slower pace

260
00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,679
Speaker 3: games will be closer. If there's a seventy five possession

261
00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 3: game versus a sixty possession game, you need to be

262
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,480
Speaker 3: much more efficient in the sixty possession game. Another thing

263
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,480
Speaker 3: would be maybe three point metrics that increases the variance.

264
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,400
Speaker 3: Three pointers are a high variance thing in basketball. Right,

265
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,280
Speaker 3: if you make one, you get three points. If you

266
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:15,839
Speaker 3: miss it, the other team very likely will get the ball.

267
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,319
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously the defensive rebounds are much more likely

268
00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,720
Speaker 3: than offensive rebounds, so good teams that allow the three

269
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 3: may be more susceptible to upset, especially if they're facing

270
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,920
Speaker 3: a good three point shooting team. And the class example,

271
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:29,280
Speaker 3: as much as I hate to say this is my

272
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 3: Virginia Cavaliers losing to UNBC, the first ever sixteen to

273
00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,839
Speaker 3: upset a one. Conversely, teams that prevent the three can

274
00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 3: struggle against teams that don't rely on the three anyway.

275
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,840
Speaker 3: If they are really good, if they sell out to

276
00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,520
Speaker 3: guard the three, but you know, the team they're facing

277
00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,720
Speaker 3: doesn't doesn't shoot threes anyway, that's not part of their

278
00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,520
Speaker 3: game plan. That could come back to bite them. And

279
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,160
Speaker 3: one team that you know this year looks like that

280
00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,680
Speaker 3: is Saint Mary's. They have seven losses this year. Five

281
00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,640
Speaker 3: of those were against teams that do the don't shoot

282
00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:02,880
Speaker 3: many threes, or they shoot them poortly, so in other words,

283
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:04,959
Speaker 3: they don't rely on the three point shot to get

284
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:09,200
Speaker 3: their wins. They beat Saint Mary's by taking it inside

285
00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:10,800
Speaker 3: and by getting to the line as well.

286
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:15,960
Speaker 5: Before we continue, we will dive into what process Nick

287
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 5: used this year. In twenty twenty one, twenty two college

288
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,559
Speaker 5: basketball season, what he looks at from this season to.

289
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,080
Speaker 2: Help drive picking teams this year.

290
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,199
Speaker 5: Before we do that, as promised, we have Jason Lisk

291
00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,800
Speaker 5: of Team Rankings joining us now on the pod March Madness.

292
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,200
Speaker 5: This season, Action Network is partnering with Team Rankings. We'll

293
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 5: be providing Action users with data driven matchup notes for

294
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:44,520
Speaker 5: every game throughout the tournament and for those that are unfamiliar.

295
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,160
Speaker 5: Team Rankings is one of the best sources of algorithmic

296
00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,839
Speaker 5: sports predictions and data in the world, publishing over two

297
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:56,840
Speaker 5: hundred thousand pages of projections, stats, rankings, and odds. So Jason,

298
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,680
Speaker 5: we bring you on because we want to get set

299
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,160
Speaker 5: for the first round and understanding what you do and

300
00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:03,320
Speaker 5: what you bring to the table.

301
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:03,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

302
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:04,319
Speaker 1: Absolutely.

303
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,040
Speaker 4: I did a lot of the research on some notes

304
00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 4: that are appearing there. So I'll start with tonight. We've

305
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,319
Speaker 4: we've got the first four matchups, and then there's a

306
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,960
Speaker 4: game I like there, Indiana minus four versus Wyoming based

307
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 4: on my review of these teams. For a couple of reasons,

308
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:21,040
Speaker 4: A A lot of Wyoming's best games, if you adjust

309
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:22,920
Speaker 4: for opponent, came in the first month of the season.

310
00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,840
Speaker 4: They got off to a really good start in conference play.

311
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,280
Speaker 4: They were sort of in decline at the end of

312
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,160
Speaker 4: the Mountain West season, losing several games and also winning

313
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,720
Speaker 4: some close. They beat Fresno in overtime for a cover,

314
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 4: but it was kind of lucky. They beat UNLV in

315
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,200
Speaker 4: the Mountain West tournament, but it took U and V

316
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 4: shooting like ten percent from three to barely get that cover.

317
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,240
Speaker 4: Indiana is going the other way. They were hot, they peaked.

318
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,800
Speaker 4: Wyoming has two players. They basically rely on two players,

319
00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,720
Speaker 4: Hunter Maldonado and Graham e K. E K's their center,

320
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 4: their post player, and Tracey Jackson Davis for Indiana is

321
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,480
Speaker 4: a great interior defender. Indiana defends inside, that's where Wyoming

322
00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,640
Speaker 4: likes to score. I just think it's a good matchup

323
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 4: for Indy, So that's the first one starting us off.

324
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 4: I like to lay the points with Indiana. I think

325
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,840
Speaker 4: they're the better team and peaking right now. I've got

326
00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 4: some underdogs though for later in the week. One of

327
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,680
Speaker 4: my favorites, because I'm crazy like that, is Georgia State.

328
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,000
Speaker 4: This line's already moved down and it's around twenty three

329
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 4: right now, and that was a twenty four and a

330
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 4: half to open. I think This is the first one

331
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,040
Speaker 4: versus fourteen matchup, and I say that facetiously. We've got

332
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 4: this Georgia State team power rated above ten other teams

333
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:29,120
Speaker 4: in this tournament, including most of the actual fourteens. If

334
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 4: you look at their overall record, it may not look impressive,

335
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 4: but one of their best interior and post defenders was

336
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 4: out for the first half of the season. They had

337
00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 4: a COVID issue for the first half of the season,

338
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 4: and they were the preseason favorite that didn't play like

339
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 4: it until the final month of the season. Then they

340
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 4: went on a roll. We had success picking them based

341
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 4: on those same factors in their conference tournament, really good odds,

342
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:50,920
Speaker 4: and now they hear and they got stuck with a sixteen.

343
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 4: I was hoping they'd be a fifteen. But they're catching

344
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,240
Speaker 4: a lot of points against Gonzaga, and they have two

345
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 4: post players and their strength is turning people over in defense,

346
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,680
Speaker 4: two things that I think can at least help them

347
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 4: stay within this UAB. I think stylistically, you know, Conference

348
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 4: USA has had lots of teams that have pulled up

349
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 4: sets in recent tournaments. U AB turns people over. They

350
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 4: have a really good starting five. Jelly Walker is going

351
00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,040
Speaker 4: to be a popular player to watch in this tournament.

352
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 4: And they're catching eight against Houston because Houston's power rated

353
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,720
Speaker 4: very highly. If this UAB team was against a team

354
00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 4: like Providence, it would be like a one point line.

355
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:25,880
Speaker 4: They're catching eight against Houston. I like them to at

356
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:27,640
Speaker 4: least keep it close. That's another one I'm looking at.

357
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,240
Speaker 2: Very nice. Yeah, I think some of those picks really

358
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 2: the jump off.

359
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 5: Of course, Indiana tonight, a team, like you said, peaking

360
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,440
Speaker 5: at the right time, just falling short to Iowa in

361
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 5: the Big Ten semi finals. And then of course you

362
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 5: mentioned Gonzaga, who has barely covered throughout the course of

363
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 5: the year. Looking at your website right now at team

364
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 5: rankings again, Jason Lisk from team rankings, just a small

365
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 5: margin of victory when you do all the math out

366
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 5: based on their record against the spread this season. And

367
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,280
Speaker 5: then Houston, outside of their win against Memphis in the

368
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 5: American Championship game, that was a game they got up for,

369
00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,880
Speaker 5: they got embarrassed by them at the end of the

370
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 5: regular season, but it was a game that didn't mean

371
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,680
Speaker 5: anything for Houston because they already wrapped up the regular year.

372
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 5: So Houston a little suspect outside of their win in

373
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 5: the American Championship. As you look later in the week,

374
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,840
Speaker 5: what else are you looking forward to? Maybe some maybe

375
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 5: not Picture is confident in, but some leans and some

376
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:18,040
Speaker 5: other games you're on.

377
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 4: Oh, I'll give you one that I think it depends

378
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 4: on what news comes out. We've seen the Murray State

379
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 4: line move from San Francisco favor to Murray State favored,

380
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: crossing through zero short number on San Francisco switch the

381
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 4: other way. I think it's at one and a half

382
00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 4: for Murray right now. I think there's some potential reasons

383
00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 4: for that, but we need to see San Francisco forward Masalski,

384
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 4: probably their best post defender rebounder, or one of them

385
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 4: missed the last game that they lost in the WCC tournament.

386
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 4: Haven't seen an update at least publicly, but maybe somebody

387
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,440
Speaker 4: knows something with that line move, or maybe they're just

388
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,920
Speaker 4: trying to anticipate. So that may be one you wait

389
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,640
Speaker 4: until closer to game time to see because if he's out.

390
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 4: I think Murray State has the edge. They're inside with

391
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 4: their offensive rebounding and that may be something driving that.

392
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,880
Speaker 4: Other than that, I think it's pretty match up. Chattanooga's

393
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 4: one to watch Illinois. You know, Grandson was out in

394
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 4: the Big Ten tournament. That's another injury situation to watch.

395
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 4: I think Chattanooga's got value if he's out because their

396
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,439
Speaker 4: frontline can otherwise match up. But if they have you know,

397
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 4: if Illinois has all three forwards, that could be a

398
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 4: more difficult matchup for Chattanooga. That's another one to watch.

399
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:26,320
Speaker 4: Looking further out, I like for me, Purdue's a fade overall,

400
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 4: just just stylistically in this tournament. I'm just not sure

401
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 4: Yale is the team to do it because they just

402
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 4: lack size and Purdue has interior size. But longer term,

403
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 4: Purdue might be a fade for me over the weekend.

404
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 5: Very good, he is Jason Lisk of Team Rankings. Action

405
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 5: Network is to partner with Team Rankings throughout the entirety

406
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 5: of March Madness this season, so you'll be able to

407
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 5: get action users. You'll get data driven matchup notes for

408
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 5: every game throughout the tournament. Jason, thanks so much for

409
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 5: joining us today. For those interested in learning more about

410
00:18:55,800 --> 00:19:00,399
Speaker 5: team rankings, the page is Teamerankings dot com slash action,

411
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 5: which we have set up for Action Network listeners, which

412
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 5: includes you folks, to get discounts on various March Madness products,

413
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 5: including their customized bracket picks and advice. We continue on

414
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,439
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast Brending glass Sheen with Nick Giffen.

415
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 5: Thanks to Jason Lisk.

416
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 2: For joining us.

417
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 5: We want to Now we're moving, We're getting closer to

418
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 5: Nick revealing the eight teams this year.

419
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 2: So with that said, what has driven your process this year?

420
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 3: As I mentioned, we want to target each eighth of

421
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 3: the bracket, So the one in the two seed in

422
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 3: each region, Gonzaga, we just want to avoid them. We

423
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 3: want to avoid that eighth of the brackets. They're the

424
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 3: best team in the land. That means we need to

425
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 3: double up in another eighth. The other eighth of the

426
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,639
Speaker 3: bracket I'm avoiding is Arizona's eighth. I should mention in

427
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 3: Zach also plays fast, which doesn't help. Arizona also plays fast,

428
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 3: which doesn't help. Their eighth of the bracket is weird.

429
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 3: I'm having This is my hardest portion of the bracket,

430
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,360
Speaker 3: the hardest eighth of the bracket.

431
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 2: Well, you just mentioned that will help us.

432
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 5: Now, I think do a little process of elimination, or

433
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 5: at least give us a fee for what teams you

434
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 5: are picking, and that is what we get to. Now

435
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 5: let's start in the West. So this is this is

436
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 5: the final, the final leg. This is what everyone's waiting

437
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 5: for now to figure out what teams Nick is picking

438
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 5: for the twenty twenty two March Madness NCAA Tournament. Let's

439
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,679
Speaker 5: start in the West. Take us through your process here

440
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 5: and then give us the teams you're taken.

441
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and do what I mentioned. These are my picks.

442
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 3: This is the process I came to. If you have

443
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 3: your own process and you pick different teams, I love that.

444
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,679
Speaker 3: That's great. But we're gonna avoid the Gonzaga eight, you

445
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: know that top half of the West bracket there, and

446
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 3: we're gonna look at the duke side. And I've only

447
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 3: got one on this side, so this isn't one of

448
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 3: the ones we're doubling up on. I'm looking at Davidson.

449
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 3: So this is really tough because I don't like Rutgers

450
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 3: or Notre Dame. Alabama doesn't grade out particularly strongly as

451
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 3: a six seed. They're kind of fair. Texas Tech pretty good,

452
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 3: but they're just too high of a seed for this system.

453
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: Don't like Montana State, so I have to look at

454
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: that seven to ten matchup, and Davidson and Michigan State

455
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 3: are really close in these overall blended rankings of mine.

456
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,239
Speaker 3: I think Davidson can give Michigan State fits and then

457
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 3: they'll face probably I mean, unless Duke does another fifteen

458
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 3: to two loss, they'll probably face in state rival Duke

459
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: in the state just below them, South Carolina. So it's

460
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 3: not like Duke's gonna have a massive home court advantage

461
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 3: or anything. I'm sure Davidson will be sending a lot

462
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 3: of fans there, especially if they make it to face Duke,

463
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,520
Speaker 3: and I think that that sets up well there for Davidson.

464
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: You know, Duke is a little bit slower or right

465
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 3: around I should say the national average in overall pace,

466
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: so that kind of you know, doesn't help their case.

467
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 3: And as we talked about, Davidson is slow, so that

468
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 3: could keep the game kind of absolutely. They can shoot

469
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 3: the three as well, so I like Davidson to have

470
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 3: a chance of upsetting Duke. And then, like I said,

471
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 3: they'll have to face potentially a three seed Texas to

472
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: or a sixth seed Alabama there. But those aren't particularly

473
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 3: strong sides. They would have to get through one more game.

474
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: They're not weak either. I mean, Texas Tech is probably

475
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 3: potentially the second best three seed I have Tennessee is

476
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 3: the best three seed. Texas Tech is the second best

477
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: three seed. But Texas Tech is a fair three seed,

478
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 3: whereas like Tennessee should probably be a two seed, and

479
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 3: these blended rankings, Texas Tech is a three seed. And

480
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 3: so you know, I think this is a good situation

481
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 3: here for Davidson to get to the sweet sixteen and

482
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 3: have a shot at getting to the eliteate.

483
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 2: Okay, we go from the west to the south.

484
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 5: Let's look at the South region and what section of

485
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 5: the south of the sixteen teams on this side, where

486
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 5: are you targeting?

487
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mentioned avoiding the Arizona side, not because again

488
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 3: I think Arizona is particularly strong or whatever, but that

489
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 3: whole eighth is just like good to me. The Villanova side,

490
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 3: I love targeting Villanova side. They're a slow paced team.

491
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 3: And Loyola. Once again, we've got a Loyola here the

492
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 3: ten seed against Ohio State. Loyal grades more like a

493
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 3: borderline sixty seven seed in the blended rankings in Ohio State,

494
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,199
Speaker 3: or like a eight to a nine ish seed. So

495
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 3: I actually have loyala slightly favored it's essentially a pick em,

496
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: you know, depending on what book you're looking at.

497
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 5: So I got bet MGM up right now, like we

498
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 5: and I think I mentioned this right off the top.

499
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: It's a it is a pick them right now.

500
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And so pickams are great because of the

501
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 3: coin flip example. The beginning is pick them all right,

502
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: So that's fine, and let me.

503
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 5: Let me hold on, let me jump in here real quick.

504
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 5: So as of right now, this is interesting. So right

505
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 5: now I bet MGM. Ohio State is actually a one

506
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 5: and a half point favorite. But if you were to

507
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 5: bet each team on the money line, they're both at

508
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 5: minus won ten.

509
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: Interesting, it is interesting. Isn't anything shop around exactly? But yeah,

510
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 3: so that you know they would be coin flip. Let's

511
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 3: say in game one Ballpark, they definitely would be an

512
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 3: underdog if they faced Villanova, and that Villanova is.

513
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: A slow two seed.

514
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 3: They're also probably more like a three seed in these

515
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 3: blended rankings, so it's a lot closer than it looks

516
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 3: for a ten to two matchup. Then they would have

517
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 3: to either beat a strong three seed Tennessee. But Tennessee

518
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 3: isn't very fast paced. They're kind of you know, right

519
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 3: around let's say almost average NCAA average and ZUA average

520
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: sixty seven possessions of a game. Ken Palm has them

521
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 3: at sixty seven point two, so basically an average paced

522
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: Tennessee team. So it's not like Tennessee isn't gonna be

523
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: running and gunning and having a many more possessions for

524
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: their efficiency to play out. And there's no guarantee they're

525
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: gonna face Tennessee. Tennis Se would still have to win twice.

526
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: They might face a tough Michigan team or Colorado State there,

527
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 3: so there's no guarantee they'd be facing Tennessee. But the

528
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: idea is we've targeted the two seed there, Villanova, and

529
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: then they just have to win one more game if

530
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 3: they get past Villanova.

531
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: Okay, I like it. That's that's good stuff.

532
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 5: I kind of agree with you up top there at

533
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 5: Arizona there, there's suspect they had an injury to during

534
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 5: their conference tournament.

535
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: That makes me a little a little worried.

536
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 5: We talked about Chattanooga could give Illinois fits, and then yeah,

537
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 5: Loyola Chicago, as it is an under is not an

538
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 5: underrated ten seed.

539
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: I think everyone is well aware of that.

540
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 5: Villanova, I think Villanova might be one of the teams

541
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 5: that everyone is sleeping on. Jay Wright has that monkey

542
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 5: off his back as far as winning in the playoffs,

543
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 5: winning in the tournament playoffs, same thing.

544
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 2: Let's go to the Midwest.

545
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we got the Kansas side, and this is

546
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: our first double up. This is our first doublop. We're

547
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: picking two teams on the Kansas side of the Midwest.

548
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 3: We're first picking San Diego date. That means they would

549
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,479
Speaker 3: face Kansas in the second game if they win their

550
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 3: first game. They are playing Creighton, the nine seed. Creighton

551
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 3: grades out really poorly for a nine seed. They're more

552
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,959
Speaker 3: like borderline ten or eleven seed. I actually have them

553
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: as an eleven seed, and they're missing Ryan Demhard, who's

554
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 3: one of their better players, a starter all year. Kansas also,

555
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: as I said, just barely loses out to Baylor as

556
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 3: the worst one seed in San Diego State, very strong

557
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 3: eight seed. They grade more like a borderline six to

558
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 3: seven seed, let's say, instead of an eight seed. So

559
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 3: very strong San Diego State team. I think they can

560
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 3: take it to Kansas, and a.

561
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 5: Big reason for that is what we've talked about. They're

562
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 5: one of the slower paced teams in the country, and

563
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 5: they're superb defensively.

564
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 2: They are an excellent defensive basketball team.

565
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 3: Absolutely, So yeah, I think San Diego State has a

566
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: very good shot.

567
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: Here.

568
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 3: The other team I'm doubling on this region five seed here, Iowa.

569
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: They look really good.

570
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 3: I actually have them in my bracket going to the

571
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: final four, my first bracket and the one I'm using

572
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 3: against all my Action Network compatriots here, so you know.

573
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: I'm giving them how you really feel.

574
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.

575
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: So Iowa grades out as a high four seed, even

576
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: pushing close to a three seed. But they're a five

577
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 3: seed and Richmond is a very poor twelve seed in

578
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: these these blended rankings. They're more like a thirteen seed.

579
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 3: So this isn't gonna be the five twelve upset we see.

580
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: I don't believe this is gonna be the five seed

581
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 3: being the favorite. So I'm gonna go with Iowa. And

582
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 3: because they're a favorite, I'm gonna go with them in

583
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 3: the spread versus Richmond. So I'm gonna shop around for

584
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: the best spread line I can find and bet Iowa

585
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: on the spread. If they don't cover the spread, we

586
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 3: lose this portion. But if they do, we get to

587
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 3: start rolling them up on money line. So that's what

588
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 3: I'm doing with Iowa in game number one is spread

589
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 3: versus Richmond, and then money line and the rest of

590
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,959
Speaker 3: their games. If we get to the point where Iowa

591
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 3: plays San Diego State, that's great, we get to cash

592
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 3: those two out, that's fine. If not, I still like

593
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 3: either San Diego State or Iowa to have a chance

594
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: to make the Elite eight.

595
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: The other thing about Iowa is their their their brackets.

596
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: That's really nicely. Providence is a poor four seed.

597
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 3: They grade more like a nine or a ten seed.

598
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 3: Providence does in.

599
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 5: Luck metric with Providence and Providence fans hate hearing this

600
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 5: all year.

601
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 2: They hated it. I'm in New England. I know folks

602
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 2: are all in on this team.

603
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 5: They are fun, they win close games, but that does

604
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 5: not bode well for them.

605
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 3: It's it's the Virginia Ticks Tech situation in reverse. They've

606
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 3: won a lot of close games instead of lost a

607
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: lot of close games. That doesn't bode well for future

608
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: predictive metrics. So that's what we got there on the

609
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 3: Kansas side of Miss West. On the Auburn side, another double.

610
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 3: We're gonna look at Colgate and it's not because I

611
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 3: dislike Auburn. It's it's just kind of the situation we're

612
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 3: facing ourselves because we're targeting Wisconsin. Wisconsin's the worst three seed.

613
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 3: They grade out more like a seven or eight seed,

614
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: believe it or not, in my blended rankings of these

615
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: predictive metrics, Wisconsin is thirtieth, So if you think seven

616
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: times four is twenty eight, that would be seven seeds.

617
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 3: So they grade out like an eight seed in my

618
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:14,959
Speaker 3: blended rankings here, and we're getting actually a you know,

619
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: fourteen seed that is pretty good. So Colgate is the

620
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: best fourteen seed in these blended rankings. And if we

621
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: look at the doctor entropy and the team rankings, one

622
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 3: doctor entropy being the most accurate, especially Colgate actually grades

623
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 3: out even higher than the best fourteen seed, closer like

624
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 3: a thirteen or a really good thirteen seeds. So I

625
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: like Coldgate over Wisconsin. We're gonna have to get a

626
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: little lucky with them in the rest of this bracket.

627
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: But if they beat Wisconsin, there's a good chance that,

628
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 3: you know, they'll have to face the other team I'm

629
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: picking here, which is LSU. So LSU is the sixth

630
00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: seed in this region. That means I'll be probably betting

631
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: them spread in the first game, shopping around to find

632
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 3: a spread bet for LSU. LSU grades out very well

633
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 3: as well as more like a five, were very high

634
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 3: six seed, low five or a high six, so they're

635
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 3: the second best sixth seed behind another team we'll talk

636
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: about here just a second in the East region. But

637
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 3: Will Wade that firing there with him makes me a

638
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 3: little bit hesitant. They struggled at nineteen when Wade was

639
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: suspended amiss the SEC and NCAA tournaments. If you look

640
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 3: at their predicted results versus what they actually did, they

641
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 3: didn't do very well, So it does make me a

642
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 3: little hesitant. But you know, like I said, we've got

643
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: Wisconsin in this section. Auburn themselves grades out more like

644
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: a three seed, so you're really getting like an eight

645
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 3: seed Wisconsin in a three seed Auburn instead of a

646
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 3: two and a three. So that helps LSU's case. And again,

647
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 3: elis you colgate especially viat LSU spread as I'm planning

648
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: on doing, means we can cash out here not have

649
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 3: to worry about Will Wade situation. The spread part is

650
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: what makes me a little bit hesitanting with LSU underperforming,

651
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: with will wait gone, I may still bet the money line.

652
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 3: So this is one of those ones where you know,

653
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 3: just kind of have to pick a team. We're targeting

654
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: a bad Wisconsin here, and so I might just still

655
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 3: moneyline at LSU because I think they'll win. But you know,

656
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: at the same time, they did underperform last time, they

657
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: didn't have Wade, and they do have a nice comfortable

658
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,959
Speaker 3: path overall to at least get the face of Auburn.

659
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 5: All right, So Davidson out of the west, Loyola Chicago

660
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 5: out of the South, and the Midwest, two double up situations.

661
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 5: From the giff and Guide, We've got San Diego State

662
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 5: in Iowa, and then Colgate LSU. That means we have

663
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 5: two teams remaining and we go we make the turn

664
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 5: for home, we head to the East region.

665
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: Let's start with the Baylor side.

666
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tonight's game Indiana. Yeah, they're in the playing game.

667
00:31:55,520 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 3: They've got Wyoming and they just need to make the

668
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen, right, because we need teams to win three

669
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 3: times to get to the Elite eight. Well, they're one

670
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: round further back, so they just need to make the

671
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen for us to be successful with Indiana, right,

672
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 3: Jason Lisk talked about them. I'm not gonna go into

673
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: too much detail, but I also really like Indiana. Really

674
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: good twelve seed. They grade more like a nine or ten.

675
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: Obviously the results is what got them into the playing game,

676
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: but if it was based off predictive metrics, they'd be

677
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 3: more like a nine or ten seed. Team rankings actually

678
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 3: has them twenty sixth overall if my numbers are correct there.

679
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 3: Saint Mary's is a good five seed, but they're slow.

680
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 3: We talked about them guards the three, but Indiana is

681
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 3: one of those teams.

682
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 1: That doesn't really rely on the three.

683
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 3: So this could be another one of those five losses

684
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: that Saint Mary's had out of the seven this year.

685
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 3: That is a team that doesn't rely on the three.

686
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 3: And then they just have to get past UCLA very

687
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 3: good four seed, but on the slow side. Two hundred

688
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 3: and fifty eighth in tempo per ken Pong.

689
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, looking at Indiana really quick. That means going back

690
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 5: to mid February, they've been in every single one of

691
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 5: their games. They lost to Wiscon by five, they went

692
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 5: to overtime against Ohio State, they beat Maryland, they beat

693
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 5: Minnesota lost to Rutgers by three, but then after that

694
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 5: Purdue regular season finale only lost by two, beat Michigan,

695
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 5: beat Illinois, and they nearly knocked off Iowa in the

696
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 5: semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament. And on the Kentucky side,

697
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 5: what's your uh, what's your final pick?

698
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah?

699
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: Well, we talked about this team before. Virginia Tech.

700
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 3: Very good team, very strong team, especially in the predictive metrics.

701
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 3: They're the best eleven seed they grant out more like

702
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 3: a six or seven seed. The issue is they faced Texas,

703
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 3: a very strong the strongest six seed as I was

704
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 3: kind of alluding to earlier, Texas is more like a

705
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 3: four or five seed. The good thing is both teams

706
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 3: are exceptionally slow. This is going to be a plotter

707
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 3: of a game that makes this game nearly a coin flip.

708
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 3: If you want to go with Texas. I don't mind

709
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 3: this either, if you want to take Texas to the

710
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 3: Elite eight, but you'd be you know, especially because this

711
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 3: is a coin flip. You can still bet Texas money

712
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 3: line in this first game, so you can go with

713
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 3: Virginia Tech, can go to Texas.

714
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: I'm picking Virginia Tech because.

715
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 3: They will have a little bit longer odds as the

716
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: tournament goes on, more than Texas. You got Purdue, which

717
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: is slow three seeding, and Kentucky's the strongest two seed,

718
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 3: so it's tough targeting Kentucky. But there's a chance they

719
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 3: don't face Kentucky. Kentucky actually kind of has a tough

720
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 3: draw there with that seven to ten matchup. Murray State

721
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 3: very good, uh, San Francisco very good, so there's no

722
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 3: guarantee they end up facing Kentucky. Virginia Tech has a

723
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 3: shot to make the elite.

724
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 5: All right, very good, so to recap the gift and

725
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 5: guy to betting March madness.

726
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: So he's got Davidson out.

727
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 5: Of the West, Loyola Chicago out of the South, four

728
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 5: teams out of the Midwest, San Diego State, Iowa, Colgate,

729
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 5: and LSU cash out opportunities with those double situations, and

730
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 5: then finally in the in the in the East, he's

731
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 5: got Indiana and Virginia Tech. Nick, this was awesome, great stuff,

732
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 5: really insightful. Glad to have you back because you didn't

733
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 5: use this last year. As you mentioned, twenty twenty, we

734
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 5: lost the year, So looking forward to seeing how plays

735
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 5: out for the first time now in three years.

736
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we already got one of our teams tonight Indiana,

737
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 3: so you know, go who's yours? I guess I almost

738
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: went to Indiana, by the way, but I didn't.

739
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 2: Very good.

740
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 5: That is going to do it for us here on

741
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast. Thanks again to Jason Lisk of

742
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 5: Team Rankings joining us. They are working with Action Network

743
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,720
Speaker 5: throughout the entirety of the tournament, and of course, thanks

744
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 5: to doctor Nick Giffen, our predictive analyst for the Action Network,

745
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 5: be sure to follow his work over on Twitter.

746
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 2: You can find Nick at nick You're at Rodo doc.

747
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 5: On the on the Twitter sphere, so be sure to

748
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 5: check him out as the tournament goes along, and like

749
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:40,959
Speaker 5: we mentioned, great to have Team Rankings working with Action

750
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 5: Network throughout the course of the tournament. For those interested

751
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 5: in learning more about Team Rankings, the page is Teamerankings

752
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 5: dot com slash action, which we have set up for

753
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 5: Action Network listeners, which includes you folks to get discounts

754
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,280
Speaker 5: on various March Madness products, including their customized bracket picks

755
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 5: and advice. Be sure to join us thanks again to

756
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,280
Speaker 5: Nick and Jason Brandon signing off on the Action Network

757
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,720
Speaker 5: podcast Best of Luck, everybody in Happy Lunch,