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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're growing out job spectator.

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Speaker 2: We're setting up to cash. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 2: they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are honked away.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to another edition of the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 4: This is your NFL Week three betting preview. I am

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Speaker 4: joined as always by my Action Network Coweague and the

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky.

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Speaker 2: Stucky.

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Speaker 4: I'm just gonna give you the floor right off the

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Speaker 4: bat to let you bloat. You did a perfect sweep

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Speaker 4: of me last week six and zero. You were write

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Speaker 4: about the Colts. You are back on top.

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Speaker 2: You have a nice you have some nice breathing room.

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Speaker 2: How do you feel?

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Speaker 5: I feel good that there was a winning week. I

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Speaker 5: feel good for anyone that tailed. I wrote like three

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Speaker 5: or four thousand words on the slate last week that

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Speaker 5: are the same for this week. Going through every game,

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Speaker 5: so make sure you check that out on Action App

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Speaker 5: and Action Network dot Com. Week two is one of

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Speaker 5: my favorite week threes up there too. It's all to

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Speaker 5: the next week. This game could be humble and you

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Speaker 5: can't get too caught up.

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Speaker 2: I enjoyed last week. I had a couple of things

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Speaker 2: going for me.

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Speaker 4: One now twelve and one on primetime, so I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: cling to that.

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Speaker 2: You know something about time time, rayb Here we go, man.

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Speaker 4: You know, so anyone who wants to tail me, don't

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Speaker 4: on primetime because I'm sure we're going to regress heavily

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Speaker 4: to the mean, probably starting with the Thursday night game

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Speaker 4: that we'll get to.

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Speaker 2: Overall, still feeling good.

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Speaker 4: Trying to get back at I got a lot of

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Speaker 4: ground to make up, So we're gonna get to the

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Speaker 4: Thursday night previews. Then for anyone unfamiliar, we do our

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Speaker 4: Sunday six pack, which is our top six bets that

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Speaker 4: we draft of the week. Then we'll get into our total,

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Speaker 4: our teaser, our moneyline, Underdogs survivor picks, all that good

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Speaker 4: stuff before we kick things off.

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Speaker 2: Here to very quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: One, if you plan to bet the NFL this season

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Speaker 4: and haven't downloaded the free award winning Action Network app

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Speaker 4: What Are You Doing? It's got betting tools, analysis from myself,

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Speaker 4: Stucky and the whole Action Network team, and it lets

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Speaker 4: you track every bet that you make. And number two,

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Speaker 4: if you want a chance at a free Vegas vacation,

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Speaker 4: don't forget to enter the Action Pods Tournament of Champions

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Speaker 4: presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: This is the.

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Speaker 4: Free weekly Yahoo DFS tournament we've debuted this season specifically

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Speaker 4: for our podcast listeners, joined by clicking on the link

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Speaker 4: in our episode description. Top ten finishers every week receive

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Speaker 4: over one thousand dollars worth of Action Network prizes, and

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Speaker 4: of the Action Network Podcast. We're only two weeks in

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Speaker 4: and we've got ten players already headed to the Grand

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Speaker 4: Finale so far. But every week it's a brand new game,

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Speaker 4: so be sure to enter every week of the NFL

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Speaker 4: trip grand prize. Just click on the link in our

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Speaker 4: episode description. All right, let's get right into this, Stuck.

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Speaker 4: Let's talk some Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 4: So this week we got a couple of teams that

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Speaker 4: the expectations weren't too high for, the Miami Dolphins not

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Speaker 4: going too far to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars.

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Speaker 4: Jaguars currently a three point favorite with an over under

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Speaker 4: a forty eight at benmvm stuck.

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Speaker 2: Initial thoughts on this matchup.

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Speaker 5: I don't I mean, look, I've been very vocal on

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Speaker 5: this podcast before that I don't love Thursday night football.

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Speaker 5: And if there's a chance for me to avoid having

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Speaker 5: to play it, people always ask why it. Generally it's

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Speaker 5: a sloppier product. There's more injury risk, there's more injury

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Speaker 5: uncertainty leading up to the game, and then there's more

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Speaker 5: injury risk during the game with you know, on a

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Speaker 5: short rest, you know, much as much time to recover.

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Speaker 5: And it's generally just been a pretty awful product for

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Speaker 5: the most part. And then look, I bet Thursday Night

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Speaker 5: FOOTBA last week and the Bengals get excruciating back door.

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Speaker 5: So it's hard for me to get a feel for this.

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Speaker 5: For this Jags team, I mean they've Gardner Minshew has

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Speaker 5: played really well. But against the Colts, you know, they

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Speaker 5: were pretty fortunate. They were out gained by two hundred yards.

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Speaker 5: Last week they put up a lot of yards again,

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Speaker 5: almost five hundred yards. But the Titans, I mean, their

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Speaker 5: entire secondary was hurt at one point. You know, Dory

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Speaker 5: Jackson's on the ir Byron went out. You have a

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Speaker 5: seventh round draft pick from Marshall rookie that's playing corner.

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Speaker 5: He's been the worst corner in the NFL so far

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Speaker 5: in Jackson. The other Jackson Chris Jackson. So I don't

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Speaker 5: know how much to take from it. Now, I can

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Speaker 5: tell you that Shark might not play. Linder, who's a

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Speaker 5: really good center, is out. They're gonna have to put

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Speaker 5: their underrated kicker Lambeau on ir So they have some

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Speaker 5: pieces out. The defense is still really bad, and we've

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Speaker 5: seen that in the in the first two weeks, they

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Speaker 5: just I mean, they basically sold all their pieces. It's

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Speaker 5: really young, really an experience, but I can say that additionally,

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Speaker 5: like the over, I think both these teams will be

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Speaker 5: able to score on two questionable defenses. But I mean

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Speaker 5: it's been bet up to forty eight. I think it

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Speaker 5: opened at forty four forty five, so I don't see

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Speaker 5: much value left in it now. The question one of

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Speaker 5: the things that we wait watching for is Chark going

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Speaker 5: to play. He's questionable because Byron Jones is out for

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Speaker 5: the Dolphins, so that leaves you know, it's an interesting

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Speaker 5: corner situation in Miami because you have zada On Howard,

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Speaker 5: who is one of the highest paid corners in the NFL,

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Speaker 5: and then you have a rookie in Noah Igbonneghe a

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Speaker 5: guy always say his name wrong, like every single time.

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Speaker 5: I'm like, all right, now I know how to say

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Speaker 5: his name, and then I forget it. Let me try

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Speaker 5: to sit again. Noah gig beIN noaginy. I think that's

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Speaker 5: how you say it. So he's a rookie, you know,

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Speaker 5: out of Auburn. And last week they Byron Jones went

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Speaker 5: out with an injury after three snaps, and interestingly enough,

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Speaker 5: they put him on digs and they had him follow

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Speaker 5: Diggs on the and not Howard. And then after I

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Speaker 5: mean Howard got beat on the past to Brown, he

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Speaker 5: said it was his fault, but he was getting burned

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Speaker 5: by Diggs. If he Digs had five catches for one

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Speaker 5: hundred and thirty yards in a touchdown when matched up

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Speaker 5: with a big, big Noginy. I mean, it's a tough

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Speaker 5: assignment for a rookie. So I don't know what they're

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Speaker 5: gonna do. If they're gonna put x Howard on Chanall,

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Speaker 5: if they're gonna put the rookie on Chark if he

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Speaker 5: plays and there's gonna be some opportunities, they might be

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Speaker 5: moving pieces around in the secondary. On paper, I'll just

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Speaker 5: close with this. I don't love the game or paper.

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Speaker 5: I do have the Dolphins rated right now as the

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Speaker 5: more talented team, not by much so with home field

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Speaker 5: not you know, obviously being three points. If this got

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Speaker 5: to a flat three, I would look at the Dolphins,

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Speaker 5: But maybe I'm underrating the Jaguars, who continue to overperform,

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Speaker 5: so I'd lean Miami. If this is like three three

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Speaker 5: and a half, I might put a small play in,

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Speaker 5: but it's not a game that I'm running to bat.

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Speaker 5: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually like the Jaguars in this spot, and

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Speaker 4: I have it rated a little bit higher. Going the

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Speaker 4: other way, I have it with the Jaguars as three

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Speaker 4: and a half point favorites, and the kicker situation does

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Speaker 4: make me nervous because Josh Lambeau was WOKEI probably the

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Speaker 4: best in the NFL over the last year, couple of years.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he was just automatic.

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Speaker 4: This out of Tucker, this side of Tucker disclaimer, this

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Speaker 4: side of Tucker. But I look at this Dolphins team

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Speaker 4: and I just don't see enough.

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Speaker 2: And you know you talked about DJ Shark.

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Speaker 4: I think that's what you know it is kind of

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Speaker 4: taking people by surprise with this Jaguars team, is that

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Speaker 4: they are difficult to rate power rate because no one

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Speaker 4: knows any of their players.

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Speaker 2: And you know, DJ Shark.

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Speaker 5: He han't got anything with Minow's quarterback, which, right, yeah.

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Speaker 4: As good as Minshew is playing, and he's playing very well,

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Speaker 4: he's number seven in the league in passer rating. You know,

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Speaker 4: he's top you know, he's top half and adjusted net

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Speaker 4: yards per attempt like even last year he didn't do

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Speaker 4: anything great, but he didn't do anything poorly, like he

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Speaker 4: was already better than like Sam Bradford last year was Minshew.

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Speaker 4: You know, in the sample size that we got, which

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Speaker 4: you know is predictive after a few hundred dropbacks, and

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Speaker 4: you know, DJ Shark is tied for fourth on the

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Speaker 4: team with seven targets. Now he has one hundred yard

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Speaker 4: one hundred and nine yards in a touchdown, so pretty good.

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Speaker 2: But you have kew and Cole really stepping up.

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Speaker 4: He came on a couple of years ago than faded,

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Speaker 4: but he's actually leading the team in receiving. Schanault the

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Speaker 4: guy really like Conwey. They have Westbrook just sitting on ice.

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Speaker 4: He was one of their top receivers those of the

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Speaker 4: last three years. He's been a healthy scratch. So I

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Speaker 4: actually don't think that the chart injury. He's a great receiver,

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Speaker 4: but I don't think it will burn them against Miami

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Speaker 4: because they've this is this team this year they I mean,

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Speaker 4: look at James Robinson, the undrafted rookie playing running back.

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Speaker 4: He's got you know, eighty two yards per game on

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Speaker 4: sixteen carries a game, five point one yards in attempt

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Speaker 4: through two weeks, you know, four balls, eleven point five

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Speaker 4: yard per reception average.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is the Jaguars in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: They're just getting it from contributions from everyone, and Miami.

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Speaker 4: I think they're gonna have some issues against Minshew. I

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Speaker 4: have him rated as a top ten fantasy quarterback this week.

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Speaker 2: Love him in fantasy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's I think Corner does too, So I

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Speaker 4: think we're a freedman. So you know, it's it's it's

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Speaker 4: it's Minshew week in Week three. But you look at

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Speaker 4: Miami's defense, and we knew it would take some time.

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Speaker 4: They brought in some new pieces. The Jones injury hurts

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Speaker 4: because Igbinogamy allowed seven of eleven passing last week for

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Speaker 4: one hundred and forty five yards twenty points.

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Speaker 5: Wow, that's so much smoother than me. By the way,

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Speaker 5: the pronunciation.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I've been, I've been.

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Speaker 5: You know, he's one of the and it's a defensive player.

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Speaker 5: It's not even like one of your fantasy guys. I'm impressed.

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Speaker 4: Hey, you know, I know these guys, come on, we

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Speaker 4: didn't we go like rattle off a list of fullbacks

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Speaker 4: on last year's opener, hig Monogamy, you just got to

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Speaker 4: kind of let it flat off.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, it sounds great when you say it, right,

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Speaker 5: So trying.

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Speaker 2: To get back on it in brin time.

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Speaker 4: I think this guy the lights, it's gonna it's gonna

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Speaker 4: be tough on the season. He's allowing twelve point five

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Speaker 4: yards per target. He's allowed to touchdowns already. But but

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Speaker 4: here's the thing, and I think this is why I

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Speaker 4: think the over may still be a play as well,

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Speaker 4: even though you know Jacksonville dealing with some injuries. Miami

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Speaker 4: has the second highest blitzerate in the week. They're centing

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Speaker 4: extra rushers a lot. Only Pittsburgh has blitzed more, and

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Speaker 4: yet they're tied for the fourth fewest pressures with eleven.

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Speaker 4: If you give Minshew time to throw, he's going to

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Speaker 4: burn you to whoever received, because that's that's his game.

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Speaker 4: He's gonna spread it around. He's gonna make the right throw.

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Speaker 4: I like Jacksonville. Jacksonville doesn't get much pressure either, So

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Speaker 4: I still think this game could get over. But Ryan Fitzpatrick,

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Speaker 4: it's kind of worn off a little bit as far

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Speaker 4: as the fits magic fits magicic. He's averaging well under

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Speaker 4: seven yards per attempt lately, and I just think Jacksonville

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Speaker 4: against his defense, is in a good spot.

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Speaker 2: You have them.

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Speaker 4: You know, they faced two running quarterbacks, right They faced

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Speaker 4: Cam Newton and Josh Allen, two guys notorious for not

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Speaker 4: throwing the ball at a high volume rate, not throwing

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Speaker 4: the ball at the most efficient equip And yet Miami's

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Speaker 4: allowed the seventh most passing yards and they faced two

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Speaker 4: rushing quarterbacks. They've also given up the third most rushing yards.

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Speaker 4: Of course, ninety three. Second most rushing scorer is a pair,

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Speaker 4: you know. So this is a defense that is now

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Speaker 4: facing another quarterback that combines you know, efficient passing, probably

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Speaker 4: more efficient than Allen and and Cam if we're being

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Speaker 4: honest as a thrower, with enough rushing ability, some very

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Speaker 4: good rushing ability actually to get things done. So obviously

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Speaker 4: it would be ideal if Chart played. It might actually

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Speaker 4: make it. I might make it, you know, Miami, excuse me,

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Speaker 4: Jacksonville by three, you know, three and three quarters instead

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Speaker 4: of three and a half or maybe up to four.

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Speaker 4: But I think Jacksonville is a clearly better team here.

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Speaker 4: The home field is not going to do too much,

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Speaker 4: you know, interstate rivalry. But this Miami team they almost

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Speaker 4: got the back door cover against New England, but generally

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Speaker 4: have looked listless outside of that kind of weight comeback

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Speaker 4: against Buffalo. But you don't give up four hundred yards

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Speaker 4: to Josh Allen, like you know, you just you just

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Speaker 4: don't do it. So I think Miami is gonna struggle

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Speaker 4: on defense. And I actually got this at a juiced

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Speaker 4: up two and a half. So if you can get

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Speaker 4: that somewhere, I say, the play is Jacksonville. If it's

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Speaker 4: If it's three and a half, I agree, I would

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Speaker 4: probably weigh off. I think three, you're kind of you're

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Speaker 4: right on the brink of it could go either way.

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Speaker 4: I would lean jackson there though, because again I do

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Speaker 4: have them at three and a half.

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Speaker 5: Buffalo beat Miami last week and they gave up twenty

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Speaker 5: eight or more points. That ended a thirty nine game

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Speaker 5: losing streak by the Bills when they gave up twenty

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Speaker 5: eight or more. The last time they won a game

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Speaker 5: when they gave up twenty eight or more was in

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Speaker 5: twenty eleven. And then the other thing I'll add is

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Speaker 5: these are two poor defenses. Yep. If you don't love

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Speaker 5: a side going into this game, if one of these

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Speaker 5: teams jumps out to a lead, the other team's gonna

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Speaker 5: have opportunities to come back. So taking a you know,

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Speaker 5: a shot and either trading it or taking a shot

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Speaker 5: with a team that's behind live not a bad idea.

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Speaker 2: I like that call. Yeah, so that's the Thursday night

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Speaker 2: game again.

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Speaker 4: You have it power rated as the Miami Dolphins plus

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Speaker 4: two point three, and I have it Jacksonville minus three

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Speaker 4: and a half, so I like the Jags.

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Speaker 2: You're basically staying away. Maybe looking for a live bet.

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Speaker 4: Speaking of the Thursday Night action, bet MGM has a

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Speaker 2: Stuck, let's get to our coaches, Pepta. We do it

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Speaker 2: every week.

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Speaker 4: This week, I'm gonna dedicate this one to Gardner Minshew

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Speaker 4: against that Miami defense. It comes from the Dear we Departed,

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Speaker 4: Rip Wilford Brimley from the nineteen eighty one film Absence

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Speaker 4: of Malice.

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Speaker 2: Again dedicated to Gardner Minshew.

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Speaker 3: Come sundown, there's going to be two things true that

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Speaker 3: ain't true now. One is that the United States is

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Speaker 3: going to know what in the good Christ is going

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Speaker 3: on around here, and the others I'm going to have

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Speaker 3: somebody's ass in my briefcase.

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Speaker 4: All right, Stuck, you had a big week last week.

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Speaker 4: I know you're rearing to get back at it. So

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Speaker 4: let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: So for my first pick in the week three Sunday

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Speaker 4: six Pack, I am going with the boys again.

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Speaker 2: Two weeks in a row. They let me down.

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Speaker 4: Last week they still got the win, which shows you

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Speaker 4: what a dumpster fire Atlanta is with Dan Quinn. Great

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Speaker 4: job guys rehiring him after a fluky end to last season.

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Speaker 4: That's for another conversation. Dallas plus five and a half

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Speaker 4: if it gets to six, even better. But I have

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Speaker 4: this game power rated as the Cowboys plus three and

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Speaker 4: a half at Seattle. I think this is a huge

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Speaker 4: overreaction to Russell Wilson's huge performance last week. And I

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Speaker 4: should know because I've been banging the Russell Wilson drum

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Speaker 4: all offseason. I said they were pretty much the best

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Speaker 4: value in the NFC in every different market, whether it

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Speaker 4: was win totals, Division, Super Bowl, Conference, all that good stuff.

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Speaker 2: So I love Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 4: In his entire career, he's had one line that's pass

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Speaker 4: blocked better than eight rank better than eighteenth, and pass

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Speaker 4: blocking the other top six quarterbacks and ratings since he

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Speaker 4: came into the league. They've only had two below average

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Speaker 4: pass blocking lines in twenty four combined season. So love Russ,

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Speaker 4: But this is too many points the Seahawks to be

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Speaker 4: given up. They're thirteen and five since the start of

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Speaker 4: last season, but they've only won by six or more

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Speaker 4: in thirty eight point eight percent of their game Since

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Speaker 4: the start of last season, they are seven twelve and

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Speaker 4: one against the spread as a home favorite. Going back

348
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Speaker 4: to twenty and seventeen, they've won by six or more

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Speaker 4: in that spot just thirty percent of the time. One

350
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Speaker 4: of those wins came against Jakobe Brssett and the Colts

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Speaker 4: forty six to eighteen, and another one of those wins

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Speaker 4: came against Nick Mowens and the pre elite Niners defense

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Speaker 4: of twenty eighteen. Outside of two blowouts against backup caliber quarterbacks,

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Speaker 4: they're just four for eighteen in terms of winning games

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Speaker 4: by six or more. This is a tough still a

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Speaker 4: tough opponent in Dallas. We saw, you know that they can,

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Speaker 4: you know, light it up on offense in score in

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Speaker 4: a hurry and want of course gave him some breaks.

359
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Speaker 4: But you know, Seattle's still been vulnerable on defense. You know,

360
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 4: they gave up a ton of yards to the Falcons.

361
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Speaker 4: They nearly with the page. It's somehow miraculous we come

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Speaker 4: back and pull off the comeback even though it should

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Speaker 4: have never gotten to that, and with Russell Wilson's outstanding performance.

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Speaker 2: So I really like Dallas in this spot to cover.

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00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 4: They've failed to cover in two straight, and you know

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00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 4: that's generally a spot that you want to target in betting.

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Speaker 4: I know you've kind of talked about you know there's

368
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Speaker 4: gonna be overreactions and Dallas is zero and two against

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Speaker 4: the spread, Seattle is to and zer Matthew Friedman has

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Speaker 4: a piece of on the Action Network fifty nine percent.

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Speaker 2: Are you know.

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Speaker 4: Teams that are in these kind of spots, So good

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Speaker 4: spot for Dallas, like it at five and a half.

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Speaker 4: But if you can get to six, even if it's

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Speaker 4: you know, one, fifteen twenty, I would probably still take

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00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 4: the six to be safe. But you probably get even

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00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 4: better percentages you get you do get even better percentages

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Speaker 4: on those trends I just talked about if you take

379
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: out some of the six point wins, So really like

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Speaker 4: Seattle Dallas in this spot to cover against Seattle, you

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Speaker 4: just know, you just know it's gonna be one, a

382
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 4: one score game in a close game, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I completely agree that I would have taken Dallas

384
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 5: as one of my picks if you didn't take them first.

385
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 5: I played them here plus five. I'll add if I

386
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 5: can get six. But coming into the year, I made

387
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:20,120
Speaker 5: Dallas here a tiny favorite. Now I've adjusted Seattle a bit,

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00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 5: and then Dallas is obviously not healthy. So I still

389
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 5: make Seattle, you know, a favorite, but not over a

390
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 5: field goal. There are some I think Tyron Smith, who

391
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,679
Speaker 5: was in practice day is going to play. That'll be big.

392
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 5: But you know, the corner injuries for Dallas are concerning.

393
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 5: A Woozie's not gonna play. You already have any Brown,

394
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 5: He's not gonna play. Anthony Brown's already out, Diggs is

395
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 5: banged up. You're gonna have Brandon used car or Brandon

396
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 5: washed car in there. So it's it's not an ideal

397
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,280
Speaker 5: situation at corner. I'm sure Russ will hit, will get his,

398
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 5: but the Dallas offense should also eat. You know, Russell

399
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 5: Cook and Dallas will eat. It's an interest think pace clash.

400
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:04,439
Speaker 5: Dallas is a speed racer and Seattle is a snail.

401
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 5: It's one of the fastest teams in Dallas was one

402
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 5: of the slowest seams in Seattle. But they'll score fast.

403
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, a lot of plays. Yeah they'll put up points.

404
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 5: But yeah, the corner situation is a little concerning for Dallas.

405
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:23,040
Speaker 5: But look this Seattle defense. I love the additions of

406
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 5: dun Barr and Adams the secondary, and I think it's

407
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 5: gonna pay off. They have great linebackers too, eventually. But

408
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 5: this is a brand new scheme with brand new players

409
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 5: playing together, and there's been communication issues. There's you know,

410
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 5: Adams is getting a lot of pressure on the quarterback.

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00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 5: I think he had eleven pressures last week and the

412
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 5: next best, the next highest was Bruce Irvin is now

413
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 5: out for the year. This defensive line gets no pressure whatsoever.

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Speaker 5: Uh So Dallas, I mean, Jack's gonna have all data throw,

415
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 5: They're gonna be able to run the ball. Uh And

416
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 5: it's just gonna take time for the Seattle secondary to tell.

417
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 5: And Marcus Blair is also out for the year. He

418
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 5: was a guy that used in a you know, really

419
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 5: versatile guy that in a bunch of different ways. So

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00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 5: this Seahawks defense, yeah, it's really bad. I mean they

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00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 5: could have lost the Patriots the Falcons game. They both

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00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 5: averaged the Falcons both averaged six point six yards per play. Misleading,

423
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 5: very misleading final score. This should be a one possession

424
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 5: game like most Seattle games. You know, I wouldn't be

425
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 5: surprised if it's last team, last quarterback with the ball

426
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 5: wins the game. Whether it's Stack or Russ, I completely

427
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 5: agree with you.

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00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 4: At this point, I think most of the value has

429
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 4: been bet out of the total, it's up to fifty

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00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: six and a half at bet MGM.

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00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 2: That's actually where I make it. Essentially broke my model.

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00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 2: I make it. That just an interesting note.

433
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: When Seattle's been a home favorite the last seven times,

434
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 4: five of those seven have gone fifty nine or higher.

435
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 2: And both Seattle games.

436
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 4: This year have gone over sixty. So you know this

437
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 4: is going This should be a high scoring contest, you know,

438
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 4: And but fifty six and a half is where I

439
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 4: have it. Maybe I imagine at some point some big

440
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: money will come in on the under, just because that

441
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 4: generally happens.

442
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: But if you are looking.

443
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 4: For it over to bet and you just want to

444
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 4: kind of kick back and watch two good offensive teams

445
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 4: play some ball.

446
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 2: I don't hate it.

447
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 4: And there are Actually it's been a high scoring couple

448
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 4: of weeks this year.

449
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 2: Was talking to Shan Corner.

450
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 4: Completion percentages are up to over sixty six, pass attempts

451
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 4: are up, sacks it down.

452
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 2: So it's been a high scoring couple of weeks. But

453
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 2: a lot of unders I think to hit this week,

454
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 2: and this is not this is not one of them.

455
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 4: So I would also wean the over if you can

456
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 4: just get it any lower than the number it's at now,

457
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 4: which is, you know, fifty six and a half where

458
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,919
Speaker 4: I have it. But both of these offenses top seven

459
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 4: in past and run early down success rates, so Dallas

460
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 4: can absolutely hang with Seattle. I'm usually betting on russ

461
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 4: and the Seahawk because they're usually a little bit undervalued,

462
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 4: but in this spot, this is when you have to

463
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 4: you have to fade them. Five and a half is

464
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 4: just way too many points. I think we're both in

465
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 4: agreement here. Where are you going with your first pick

466
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 4: of the week three Sunday six back?

467
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 5: All right? For the second pick of the Sunday six pack,

468
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 5: I'm going with a team that I rarely get to

469
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 5: bet or say on this podcast, and that's the New

470
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 5: England Patriots. At that MGM, they are six point favorites.

471
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 5: Look just to set the stage of everything about Week three,

472
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 5: and this supplies the Week two, but it just gives

473
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 5: you a good reference point. Teams that failed to cover

474
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 5: in both weeks one and two are seventy six and

475
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 5: fifty five against the spreads in two thousand and three,

476
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 5: teams that didn't cover in the first two weeks and

477
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 5: lost both games outright. You know that's the Vikings, the Jets,

478
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 5: the Panthers, Texans, Lions, Eagles, all those teams that you

479
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 5: want you really don't want to bet after seeing them

480
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 5: the first two weeks. Well those teams a week there

481
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 5: are fifty six and thirty six against the spread six

482
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 5: about sixty one percent since two thousand and three. So

483
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 5: just to set that up again, that's just along this

484
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 5: team buying low, selling high. Go check out my piece

485
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 5: if you haven't. It's just a great look. I was

486
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,400
Speaker 5: on the Raiders last week against New Orleans and I said, man,

487
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 5: do I really hope the Raiders win this game because

488
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 5: it'll set up a great spot against New England. New

489
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 5: England off of a loss Number one, you're getting bitter Bill.

490
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 5: Did you see a picture of him today? You know

491
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 5: he's been watching middle school tape of Darren Waller all week,

492
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 5: not sleeping. But I mean, just Bill Belichick off of

493
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 5: a loss is I mean, it's astonishing what he's done

494
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 5: now is overall his against the spread numbers are sixty percent,

495
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 5: but after a loss, he's ridiculous. Thirty four and thirteen.

496
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 5: That's seventy two point three percent against the spread. That's

497
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 5: about a forty four percent ROI covering those games by

498
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 5: just under six points per game. It's amazing. Everyone knows

499
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 5: is the best coach at the mound. He continues to

500
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 5: exceed expectations in these spots. So you're catching a Raiders

501
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 5: team on a short week after an emotional win when

502
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 5: they unveiled their new stadium over the Saints, traveling across

503
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 5: the country for an early kick against New England off

504
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 5: of a loss. It's just a great spot. Now. Teams

505
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 5: in this spot, teams traveling on the road inferior teams

506
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 5: catching six or more points on a short week playing

507
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 5: an opponent that's on full rest are sixteen to twenty

508
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 5: seven and one against the spread about thirty seven percent

509
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 5: since two thousand and three. From a matchup perspective, Look,

510
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 5: you know what what the Raiders are. They're a very

511
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 5: good offense and an awful defense. This year there I

512
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 5: think thirtieth in DVOA and defense and like tenth in offense.

513
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 5: It's been two weeks. Well that's what they were for

514
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 5: all of last year too. It's who they are there.

515
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 5: They don't have corners, they don't get pressure. You can

516
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 5: run on them. So I think New England's gonna be

517
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 5: able to bully just down the field, control the clock,

518
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 5: wear out the Raiders. They're gonna be able to take shots.

519
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 5: They're gonna be able to throw it to Edelman against Joyner

520
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 5: in the slot. I mean, Cam Newton is I've adjusted

521
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 5: the pachers up because Cam Newton's looks healthy and he's

522
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 5: I mean he leads the NFL and completion percentage on

523
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 5: passes ten yards or greater. And then the other side

524
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 5: of the ball, So look, anyone's gonna score against the

525
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 5: Raiders unless you just have a sloppy, incompetent game like

526
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 5: the Saints did. The Raiders defense, it's just awful on

527
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 5: the other side of the ball. What does Bill Belichick do?

528
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 5: He takes away your team's biggest strength. So what are

529
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 5: the Raiders biggest thrink? Their offensive line is the is

530
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 5: the first part of it, and I do have some

531
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 5: injuries on there, so it's not as strong as it

532
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 5: usually is. But it's running the ball to Jacob's throwing

533
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 5: the ball to Waller. So you know that the Patriots

534
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 5: are just going to completely load the box and They're

535
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 5: going to bracket Waller. I have one fantasy team. I'm

536
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 5: not even I don't think i'll start Waller this week.

537
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 5: The Patriots will make like we'll have two players on them.

538
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 5: And the reason that they can do that is they

539
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 5: have corners that are capable of just playing man on

540
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 5: islands outside against the young Raiders receivers. Now, maybe Rugs

541
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 5: gets deep for one or two, but they're gonna bring pressure.

542
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 5: They're gonna load the box cars, gonna be a little

543
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 5: hesitant as he usually gets to throw it down the field,

544
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 5: and that's what Belichick's gonna make the Raiders do to

545
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 5: beat them. Huge coaching mismatch in this one on a

546
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 5: short week, great spot. I think the Patriots will be

547
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 5: able to game plan Waller and Jacob's out of this game,

548
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 5: and like most teams, the Patriots won't have any issues

549
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 5: moving the ball down the field against the Raiders defense.

550
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 5: So give me the Pats minus six. Anything under seven,

551
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 5: I like in a great spot to back bitter Bill.

552
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, while you were talking, I actually just bet this game.

553
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: I meant to do it before the.

554
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 4: Podcast, but was rushing, So yeah, I definitely just took

555
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 4: the Patriots at minus six And not only do you

556
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 4: have Belichick coming off a loss seventy three percent against

557
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 4: the spread, but you have John Gruden in a letdown

558
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 4: spot just twenty one and thirty five against the spread,

559
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 4: thirty seven percent coming off a win. So this is

560
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 4: like the dream spot for a coaching mismatch. Now I

561
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 4: shouldn't say mismatch because decent coach. You know he's got

562
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 4: his track record, but you know you're not standing up

563
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 4: to Belichick in this spot.

564
00:27:58,880 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 2: And I agree with you.

565
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 4: As long as Cam's healthy, I have my doubts that

566
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 4: will stay healthy for a full year, especially if he's

567
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 4: taking hits like that last play of the Seattle game.

568
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 4: But as long as he's healthy, he's playing well. Edelman's

569
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 4: hanging in there. Gilmore, I'm a little I'm going to

570
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 4: be monitoring Gilmore. It doesn't really affect how I'm betting

571
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: the game, but just a fifty point one coverage grade

572
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 4: through two weeks, actually a lower grade from Pro Football

573
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 4: Focus against Miami then against Seattle where he got torched.

574
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 4: For the season, he's given up one hundred and forty

575
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 4: eight yards and a touchdown. He does have a pick,

576
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 4: but seventy five percent completion rate twelve point three yards

577
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 4: of target eighteen point five yards per reception, so I'm

578
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 4: gonna be monitoring if that turns around. I think it

579
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 4: will because New England doesn't have to worry about Derek

580
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 4: Carr moving around at all. They don't have to play

581
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 4: all that zone that they did a week ago against

582
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:47,479
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson.

583
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm will see you on this one. Love

584
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 2: the Patriots.

585
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 6: Hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I want

586
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 6: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

587
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 6: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

588
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 5: Welcome to you Lockdown on forty nine Ers.

589
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 2: You were locked own of the Dallas Matterage. Everybody s

590
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: the Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go.

591
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

592
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

593
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

594
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 6: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked On podcast.

595
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: For the third pick in the week three Sunday six pack,

596
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 2: I'm going with the gem Man.

597
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 4: Plus four against the San Francisco forty nine ers. I

598
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 4: also like the under in this game, so I'm hoping

599
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 4: for a double dip bet both of these talked about

600
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 4: it in our Early Bets piece that comes out weekly

601
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,959
Speaker 4: on Tuesdays at actionnetwork dot com. But uh, I know

602
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 4: the Giants have kind of played a rusty big band

603
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 4: and they and they played you know, Mitch, you call

604
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: Mitch Bortos, I call money Mitch when he's winning.

605
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: Uh, and Mitch Falsebisky when he's losing.

606
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

607
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: But they played those two guys, and don't it now?

608
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 4: But the Giants are top three in defensive early down

609
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 4: success rate against the run and the pass might be

610
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 4: the most.

611
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: Surprising stat that I've seen all week.

612
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 4: Actually I got I got another one later in the

613
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 4: show about Pittsburgh, which is equally surprising. But this, this

614
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 4: is right up there for the most surprising stat And

615
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 4: then I mean the injuries, like where do we start,

616
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 4: you know, Jimmy g Ankle injury. Is he gonna go?

617
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 4: Probably not. They're talking about this MetLife turf and and

618
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 4: how you know they're they're gonna be cautious with guys

619
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 4: after the the uh, you know, the carnage last week

620
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 4: against the Jets. You got your top two running backs

621
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 4: Rahiem Mostered and Tevin Coleman.

622
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 2: Both have knee injuries. They're not gonna go.

623
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 4: Deebo Samuel, your top receiver still on the injury reserve

624
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 4: with a foot injury. George Kittle nursing a knee injury.

625
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 4: They're probably going to be cautious with him. Doesn't look

626
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,959
Speaker 4: like he's gonna go. So you're gonna get Nick Mohen starting. Uh,

627
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 4: you know for the for the forty nine ers somehow,

628
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 4: you know, Saquon Barkley's out for the Giants and in

629
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 4: the forty nine still get a bigger knock in the

630
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,239
Speaker 4: power ratings with all of the injuries they have. They

631
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 4: also lost Nick Bosa, one of the best defensive players

632
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 4: in the game.

633
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: They lost you know, it's just a Solomon Thomas. Oh.

634
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 4: I mean, it just doesn't stop with I mean, it's

635
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 4: it's it's absurd.

636
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: It's absurd.

637
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 4: So I have it. I have it Giants plus three,

638
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 4: and I mean it might even I might even go

639
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 4: to two point five two and a half. I know

640
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 4: Sean Corner of the odds maker actually has it at two.

641
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 4: I believe you have it around what three to three

642
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 4: and a half as well. So, uh, this is just

643
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 4: a spot where it's going to be two teams that

644
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 4: are banged up, you expect a close, low scoring game.

645
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: I like the under in the spot as well. I

646
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 4: make it thirty nine and a half, so I actually

647
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 4: make this game two and a half. I recently moved

648
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 4: it to two and a half just because even with

649
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 4: Saquon Barkley out for the Giants, the forty nine ers

650
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: still get a much bigger knock in the power ratings

651
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 4: with the long list of injuries. You know mentioned all

652
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: the guys at the skill positions, one at each one.

653
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 4: You still have your your you're playing with a backup

654
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 4: at center you you know you mentioned Thomas d Ford Sherm.

655
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 4: I mean it doesn't stop for the defense. Uh So

656
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: I expect the low scoring game in MetLife. The Niners,

657
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 4: being cautious, don't want to suffer any more injuries on

658
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 4: this turf. Oh, by the way, West Coast team traveling

659
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 4: east for the second week in a row. I mean,

660
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 4: you just have all the recipes of an ugly, ugly game.

661
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 4: Was disappointed that the Jets forty nine ers under did

662
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 4: not cash last week, ended up hitting forty four, though

663
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 4: I did get a live better under forty six and

664
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 4: a half, so I was able to still salvage that

665
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 4: a little bit. But I'm going right back to the

666
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: Giants here in what I think will be a similar

667
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 4: game script to the game against Chicago, And I am

668
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 4: also banging the under in this game as well. I

669
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: would take all the way down at this point to

670
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 4: forty one. You can still get it at forty one

671
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 4: and a half at bet MGM, the official odds provider

672
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 4: of the podcast. But yeah, going with Giants plus four,

673
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: I think it should be blowfield goal.

674
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I completely agree with you. I'm on both as well.

675
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 5: Giants said anything at four above them on the under

676
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 5: as well with you, And yeah, I mean did San

677
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 5: fram what do they do great? On defense? I mean

678
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 5: they had Sherman who takes away one half of the

679
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 5: field and they get pressure as well as anyone. They're

680
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 5: missing seventy percent of their pressures from last year right

681
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 5: now with their injuries and Buck they're gone. And you

682
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 5: know kin Law has been good as a rookie, but

683
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 5: I mean this defense and then Sherman is out. I

684
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 5: mean it's shocking the amount of injuries they suffered them

685
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 5: the offensive end. You have all the injuries of the receivers,

686
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 5: you have Kittle out, you're starting quarterback two of your

687
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 5: lead backs. I mean, it's crazy, and I think they're

688
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 5: gonna be casts with all of them. They actually didn't

689
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 5: go home, they went to West Virginia. But on this field,

690
00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 5: I think they're gonna be cautious. They're going to run

691
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 5: the ball, which actually plays into the Giants' strengths relative

692
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 5: strengths on defense. They just don't have the weapons to

693
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 5: exploit that Giants secondary. And you know, the Giants have

694
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 5: some good run defenders up front of that defensive line

695
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 5: and the in tier that I think are gonna disrupt

696
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 5: sanfred It's gonna play slow, they're gonna run the ball

697
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 5: a lot, and the San France still has some town

698
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 5: on dat. It's still the Giants offense. But I don't

699
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 5: think the Barkley loss is as big as people are

700
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 5: making it. I mean, hey, they can't really run the

701
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 5: ball at all with him, so they're still not gonna

702
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 5: be able to run the ball without him, And you

703
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 5: have him and Evan Ingraman there. Neither of them can block, like,

704
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 5: they can't block at all, they can't pass block, So

705
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 5: if you can't run, then I mean might as well.

706
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 5: It still sucks those Barkley might as well get someone

707
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 5: in there that could just pass protect for Jones when

708
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 5: you are throwing it.

709
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 4: Iron I was gonna say ironically, Devonte Freeman, who they

710
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 4: just signed, is probably one of the worst pass blockers

711
00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 4: in the week.

712
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 2: So I still expect to see a lot of of

713
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: Dian which you're absolutely white.

714
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 4: You're absolutely right, because non Saquon backs for the Giants

715
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 4: since the start of last season are averaging just three

716
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: point one yards per carry on nearly one hundred carries,

717
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 4: so they're not gonna be able to convert third downs.

718
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 4: That that's that's what I think is gonna kind of

719
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 4: lead toward the under. But I wouldn't be surprised if

720
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 4: this game is like three nothing San Francisco at the end.

721
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, it could be, uh a replica of Redskins forty

722
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 5: nine ers from last year. But I completely agree with you.

723
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 4: Imagine imagine, imagine getting a shutout and getting a cover.

724
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 2: Has that ever happened?

725
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 5: Yeah? The Redskins. The Redskins were catching.

726
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 2: Ten Oh yeah, they want like nine nothing, right.

727
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's the only time in the Niners. To the Niners, Yeah,

728
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 5: to the Miners.

729
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,760
Speaker 2: This is here we go. I'm calling it now, well.

730
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, three nothing, there you go. We'll cover by at

731
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 5: the four.

732
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,879
Speaker 2: Cover the four, all right.

733
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 5: For my fourth pick of the Sunday six pack, I

734
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 5: am going and I might be on an island, So

735
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 5: I'm going with the New Orleans Saints minus three at

736
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 5: bet MGM against the Green Bay Packers. I think it.

737
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 5: You know, there might be a juice three out there.

738
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 5: I got three flat earlier in the week for this

739
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 5: caud as. It doesn't matter if they win by three,

740
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,479
Speaker 5: it's not a win anyway. Before the season, when both

741
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 5: teams are healthy, I made this line seven and seven

742
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 5: and a half. Now the Packers have played a little better.

743
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 5: I haven't budged their power ratings that much. Look, I

744
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 5: mean what, the Packers are setting records. The third team

745
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 5: NFL history to score forty points or more in the

746
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 5: first two weeks. So the second team in NFL history

747
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 5: to eclipse a thousand yards of offense and eighty five points

748
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 5: in the first two weeks of a season, joining the

749
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 5: ninety one Bills. But look, they played the Vikings a

750
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 5: bunch of rookie corners, I decimated defense, and then they

751
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 5: played the Lions with a rookie quarter making his first

752
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 5: start and the rest of their secondary out. I mean, look,

753
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 5: this is the same offense as last year. I don't

754
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 5: understand everyone, And all of a sudden, the narrative was

755
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 5: the Packers overachieved, They're going to regress, then they had

756
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 5: a draft, and then now it's, oh, they beat two

757
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 5: bad teams a two weeks super Bowl Like No. So,

758
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 5: I mean the defense has been in blowouts, They've been

759
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 5: had huge leads. This is still an awful run defense

760
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 5: the Saints. Look, Michael, I'm a huge I'm leading the

761
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,240
Speaker 5: charge on Drew Brees is done. He has no armstrang

762
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 5: and now his accuracy is gone. And I mean he

763
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 5: was I said last week on the pot he was

764
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 5: twenty fourth and a just a completion percentage at the

765
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 5: week one, and Michael Thomas, I'm assuming is out for

766
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 5: this game, and I sol make it just under five.

767
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 5: So I'm definitely laying three here in a spot where

768
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 5: Sean Payton's the third most profitable coach in our database

769
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty eight coaches after a loss, right

770
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 5: up there with Belichicks in two thousand and three. They'll

771
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 5: bounce back here with that embarrassing performance. Look, it was

772
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 5: just a sloppy game, one of those games on the

773
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 5: West Coast. Everything went wrong. I think that New Orleans,

774
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 5: even without Thomas, they're gonna be able to move the

775
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 5: ball with their short passing and especially on the ground.

776
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 5: It wouldn't shock me in New Orleans runs for two

777
00:37:56,480 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty yards in this game, they're gonna. I

778
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 5: cannot see Green Bay just extending and blowing them out

779
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 5: like they're on their first two opponents, which then forces

780
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 5: their opponent to throw, and that plays into oul. Green

781
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 5: Bay wants to play defense the other side of the ball.

782
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 5: This is the first real defense that Green Bay will

783
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,320
Speaker 5: face all year with actual NFL corners that aren't rookies.

784
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,720
Speaker 5: So this line is an extreme a reaction, and judging

785
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 5: by everyone's bets, it's not because the entire world is

786
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,919
Speaker 5: on Green Bay. I was talking with an odds figure

787
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,479
Speaker 5: out in Vegas. He said, seven out of every eight

788
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 5: bets is coming in on the Packers. So this is

789
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 5: a definition of a by low cell high spot. After

790
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 5: the New Orleans looked awful on Monday night and the

791
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 5: Packers have set all kinds of records, but against bad teams,

792
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,839
Speaker 5: I'm not overreacting. Give me the Saints here as three

793
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 5: point home favors.

794
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would probably be right with you.

795
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 4: I actually have it my line power rated for the

796
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 4: Saints minus three. So I'm in line with the market.

797
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 5: And that's you and Corner. I'm shocked at all this and.

798
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 4: For me and you know this, this was something that

799
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 4: I've been saying, you know, before the season. I wrote

800
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 4: a piece about it in Week one, the quarterback cliff.

801
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 4: It's swift, it comes fast. It takes us by surprise

802
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: sometimes because quarterbacks can be so good for so long,

803
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 4: and once you get into you know, your late thirties,

804
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 4: early forties, you never quite know. Like you have a

805
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 4: guy like Tom Brady goes on forever, Drew Brees, you

806
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 4: think he's done. Then he comes back with one of

807
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 4: his best seasons last year after looking kind of shaky

808
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 4: in the in the previous year.

809
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 2: So you never know. But I'm officially worried about Breeze.

810
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 2: You know, the completion percentage down ten points.

811
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 4: He mentioned the awful Raiders defense, the fact that New

812
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 4: Orleans came out so flat on offense and couldn't do

813
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 4: more against that defense. On the I know he was

814
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 4: on the road in New Orleans doesn't play as well

815
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 4: on the road, but that's a little worrisome. Now, I

816
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 4: do think, like, if you're going one way or the

817
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 4: other you have to take you have to bet on

818
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 4: New Orleans because it's kind of an overreaction spot.

819
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: So I do agree, but this is a stay away for.

820
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 4: Me just because I'm anxious to see, you know what

821
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 4: Breeze can do it, especially without Thomas. I mean, his

822
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 4: completion percentage is down two points while the league average

823
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 4: has gone up, so he's actually down below we average

824
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 4: completion rate after setting the record and breaking it the

825
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 4: last two years. He's sixty four to seven, the league

826
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 4: is above sixty six, and his yards per attempt is

827
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:12,479
Speaker 4: under seven.

828
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,800
Speaker 2: Now it's just two weeks, but yeah, played the Raiders.

829
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 4: So I do, though, think that New Orleans has a

830
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 4: decisive edge when they hand the ball off to Kamara

831
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 4: and Murray, because Green Bay through two weeks for as

832
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 4: well as they've played number thirty two dead last in

833
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 4: early down success rate on defense.

834
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: That's per Sharp Football Stats, And if.

835
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 4: For people that don't know, the reason we look at

836
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 4: early downs is because it tends to be a little

837
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 4: more predictive when you take out third downs. Which are

838
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 4: a little noisier kind of unique situations. It's a little

839
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 4: tougher to convert. In most spots. You see more turnovers

840
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 4: and blitzer and things like that, so you know, the

841
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: early downs are where you want to whoop to filterughout

842
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 4: the noise. Green Bay dead last in run defense, and

843
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 4: I believe they struggled a lot in the early part

844
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 4: of last year on run defense as well.

845
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 2: Didn't really get it corrected to much later in a year.

846
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 4: So if I had to lean one way or another,

847
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 4: I would go New Orleans.

848
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: But I'll be watching for Breeze.

849
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 5: Breeze thinks, but I still like the Saints.

850
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 4: For the fifth pick in the Sunday six pack. I

851
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 4: am going with Kyler.

852
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 2: It's back. I'm here. I have returned to the brand.

853
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 1: Ray Bahn's betting hun Kyler, Murray.

854
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 5: You're late. I took them the first two weeks. This

855
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 5: is all backwards.

856
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 4: I know, man, it's it's been It's been an interesting year.

857
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm back on the Kiro train. I have

858
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 4: Cardinals versus Lions power rated as Cardinals.

859
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 2: Minus six and a half.

860
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 4: You can still get the line at minus five and

861
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 4: a half at bet MGM. The official odds provider of

862
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast. So I like locking in the

863
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 4: other side of that key number of six with the

864
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 4: cards in this spot. I really respect what Cliff king

865
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 4: Bury has kind of well, really, I should say more

866
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 4: so just Kyler Murray.

867
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: Forget Kingsbury. It's it's just the Kyro show.

868
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 4: Uh. You know you have a washed Larry Fitzgerald. Christian

869
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 4: Kirk has disappeared, and yet you're making it happen. You're

870
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 4: you're you're putting up rushing yards, You're you're hitting, You're

871
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 4: getting the rookie.

872
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 2: Uh.

873
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 4: The second year guy Isabella involved down the football field,

874
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 4: which I think is gonna be big. You're gonna have

875
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 4: an advantage with Dan Arnold in the passing game. Max

876
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 4: Williams the blocking tight end, uh, went on injured reserve,

877
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 4: so you still have some weapons. It's gonna be unorthodox.

878
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 4: But this Lion's team was a team that I was fading.

879
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 4: I think we went back and forth on it earlier

880
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: in the year on the Favorites podcast with Chad Millman.

881
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 4: But uh, this team, I want to like them. I

882
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 4: like what Darryl Bell has done. Looks like they're gonna

883
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 4: get Keny Gallai back that should help the total get

884
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 4: over in this game, but they just never seem to

885
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 4: put it together. And it's not just Patricia, who's you know,

886
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 4: got a dismal record with Stafford, a dismal record without Stafford,

887
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 4: both against the spread and straight up.

888
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: But it's also Matthew Stafford.

889
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 4: Has never quite gotten it done consistently in big spots,

890
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 4: either when he's facing a winning teams and a winning team.

891
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 4: I bring this up every time we talk about the Lions,

892
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 4: but he's now just twenty eight and forty five with

893
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 4: two pushes thirty eight percent against the spread in his

894
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 4: career against winning teams, failing to cover by over a

895
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 4: field goal three point three, including three and seven in September.

896
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 4: So even if you have those you know, two and

897
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 4: oh three and oh teams, he's struggling against them to cover.

898
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 4: Straight up, He's twenty two and fifty thirty one percent

899
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 4: straight up against winning teams. So you know, maybe you

900
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 4: think about the Cardinals as a teaser if it gets

901
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 4: up to six and a half later in the week,

902
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:49,720
Speaker 4: but this this spot, I just think with the Lions

903
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 4: injuries at cornerback, that's going to play into the Cardinals,

904
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 4: who don't have you know, the best receivers, but they

905
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 4: have one really good one now in DeAndre Hopkins. It's

906
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 4: gonna be really tough the Lions to cover him. On

907
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 4: the other side, you know, Arizona's kind of hung in there.

908
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 4: You know they got They got lucky a little bit

909
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 4: with San Francisco getting hurt in Week one, but played

910
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 4: played well enough to hold them to twenty and then

911
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 4: held a Washington team that put up twenty seven on

912
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 4: Philly got some short fields held them to fifteen. So

913
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 4: Arizona still hasn't allowed more than twenty points yet. I

914
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 4: think that'll change. I think with Gallady back that would

915
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,439
Speaker 4: really help. But it's still gonna have a team that's

916
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 4: like handing off to Adrian Peterson and Carrie on Johnson

917
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 4: and they're gonna give Ty Johnson some snaps and they're

918
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 4: trying to work in the rookie cefists and a cornerback

919
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,479
Speaker 4: in Jamal Agnew is out there running rounds. Like there's

920
00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 4: a lot going on for this Lions team. None of

921
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 4: it is very good. Give me the Cardinals minus five and.

922
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 5: A half, yeah, I can't. I mean, look for everything

923
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 5: in Syboe have once to bet the Lions here. I

924
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 5: mean they're owing to going against the two and no Cardinals.

925
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 5: But the problem is, I mean, I power right this

926
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 5: right around five and a half, I still can't get

927
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 5: I don't really care what the Lion's done the first

928
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 5: two weeks because I can't take too much trum because

929
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 5: they've just been so unhealthy. We only saw three quarters

930
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 5: of their basically healthy team, and they were dominating the Bears.

931
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 5: And then since then, you know, they've had offensive linemen

932
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 5: Nick Williams are starting defensive tackle go down, their number

933
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,439
Speaker 5: one receiver go down. All their corners have been gone down.

934
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 5: I mean Jeff Akuda, their number you know, their first

935
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 5: und draft pick. He suited up last week, I mean

936
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 5: his first ever start. He's gonna You're not gonna be

937
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 5: able to cover DeVonta Adams. So I mean, I don't

938
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 5: even know how good Accuda is.

939
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 4: Listen to this, Devanta Adams at thirty six yards. The

940
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 4: Packers had more points than devont Adams had yards.

941
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: Last week.

942
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 5: He went, he went out and didn't have to come

943
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 5: back in with with the hamster. I but I just

944
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 5: I couldn't get a read on him in his first game.

945
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 5: So are the Lions gonna be healthier this week. It

946
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 5: looks like they were going to get Vitie back a tackle.

947
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 5: It'll be his first game. Nick Williams might be back,

948
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 5: Alladay might be back, but their corners are still beat up,

949
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:50,879
Speaker 5: so it's really hard for me to get a read

950
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 5: on them. It's a great spot on paper. I this

951
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 5: is one I disagreed with you on, although I don't

952
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 5: it sound like I love the Lions. I wish I was.

953
00:45:58,440 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 5: If I was getting seven year it would take the

954
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 5: line I might look for Detroit live and you mentioned

955
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 5: the over. It is two teams that do want to

956
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 5: play fast, so I don't hate that. For the sixth

957
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 5: pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

958
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:18,280
Speaker 5: Buffalo Bills minus two and a half at bet MGM,

959
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 5: the official odds provider of the Action Owork podcast. Nobody

960
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 5: circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.

961
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 2: Look.

962
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 5: The Rams have played excellent through the first two weeks.

963
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:32,479
Speaker 5: I've upgraded them, but this line is crazy. I still

964
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 5: make this right. Around four shouldn't be under a field goal.

965
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 5: The Rams, unlike the forty nine ers, went to West Virginia,

966
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 5: had to travel back east and now so I know

967
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 5: people can be big Vags five and zero and the

968
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 5: one pm Eastern time slot coming. I don't care about

969
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 5: the five game sample size, but this time he came

970
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 5: east to Philly, had to go back west at the

971
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 5: comeback east of Buffalo. Not ideal, but from a matchup perspective,

972
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 5: I do like the Bills for a number of different reasons.

973
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 5: They should get both of their linebackers back my Li

974
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:02,439
Speaker 5: and Edmunds this week. Both of them were out against

975
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 5: the Dolphins last week there was a lightning delay. Gailey

976
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 5: and Fitzpatrick gwyen to the locker room. They said, we

977
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 5: need to attack the middle of the field with kasiki

978
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 5: and they just burnt their backup linebackers to death. But

979
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 5: they practice today. They should be back. That'll help them

980
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 5: against the Rams, who like to throw to their tight ends.

981
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 5: And obviously the Bills have the corners and the safeties

982
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 5: to match up with the Rams, the Rams receiving corps,

983
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 5: the offensive lines. This will be the first intact offensive

984
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 5: line the Rams will face all season. And the Rams

985
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 5: are bottom three in the NFL in pass rush win rate.

986
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 5: You know where the Bills are. They're number one in

987
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 5: the NFL. Their defensive line is playing excellent. They're going

988
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 5: to go against a really bad, really bad Rams offensive line.

989
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 5: The Rams are doing a lot of things to compensate

990
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 5: for that, but there's some tape now on what the

991
00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 5: Rams are doing, so I don't think that they're going

992
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 5: to be as effective as time goes on. So look

993
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,320
Speaker 5: Josh Allen, who leads the NFL in passing yards somehow

994
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 5: through two weeks. I think that he's gonna make enough

995
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 5: plays here. The Bill's defense has the advantage, and I

996
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 5: think this game will be one in the trenches for Buffalo.

997
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 5: I make this four. I'm getting the Bills under a

998
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 5: field goal at home after the Rams started out to

999
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 5: and oh, I think we're getting too much value in Buffalo,

1000
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 5: and we're overreacting a little bit to the Rams start.

1001
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 5: They could have easily lost to the Cowboys if not

1002
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,240
Speaker 5: for a questionable fourth down call on a pass interference

1003
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 5: call at the end. And then they just beat an

1004
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 5: Eagles team in disarray last week, so I bumped them,

1005
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 5: upgraded them slightly. But I'm not getting overly excited and

1006
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 5: saying that the Bill shouldn't be more than a field

1007
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 5: goal favorite at home here, So give me Buffalo.

1008
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:41,839
Speaker 4: I actually agree with a lot of what you said.

1009
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 4: I think those are great points on the matchups. I

1010
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 4: still have it right in line with the consensus at

1011
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 4: the Rams as two and a half point underdogs. Listen,

1012
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 4: this is another one of those spots that just the

1013
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 4: only thing that really worries me is that Josh Allen's

1014
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 4: a little bit unpredictable, you know, And it's.

1015
00:48:58,920 --> 00:48:59,720
Speaker 2: Just kind of like Rivers.

1016
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 4: It's like, I know you'll win some of those bets,

1017
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 4: but I'm always wary of the of them in that

1018
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 4: spots because the Rams are really protecting the football and

1019
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 4: protecting golf, and I'm actually going to get to that

1020
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:10,359
Speaker 4: a lot more. I want to talk about this game

1021
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 4: a lot more in our favorite total section, So I'm

1022
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 4: just going to table that for one moment.

1023
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 2: Let me just recap our six pack.

1024
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 4: You took the New England Patriots minus six against the

1025
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 4: Vegas Raiders. You have the Saints minus three against the Pack,

1026
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 4: and you have the Bills minus two and a half

1027
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 4: against the Rams. I have the Cowboys plus five and

1028
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:34,479
Speaker 4: a half against Seattle, the Giants plus four against San

1029
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 4: fran and the Cardinals minus five and a half against Detroit.

1030
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 4: So let's get right into our favorite over under plays.

1031
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 5: Now. I want every bit of information that you've got

1032
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:46,479
Speaker 5: in this every lead.

1033
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 4: Is that clear, I'm taking the Rams Bills under you know,

1034
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 4: for all the reasons you said, I think this is

1035
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 4: going to be a low scoring game. I think Buffalo

1036
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 4: matches up extremely well now that they have their linebackers back.

1037
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 4: They've they've been top three in yardage tight ends the

1038
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 4: last couple of years under Sean McDermott. And you know

1039
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 4: that was an outlier with Jazicky and also Gazicky played

1040
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 4: a lot in the slot. I believe it was twenty

1041
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 4: six times he ran a route out of the slot

1042
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 4: in that matchup. So he's not a true tight end

1043
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 4: and he won't play in line as much as.

1044
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 2: Tyler Higbee will.

1045
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 4: I think you will see a lot of heavy personnel

1046
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 4: from the LA Rams, and you look at the Rams

1047
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 4: and what they're doing to protect GoF It's the quick

1048
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 4: passing game, which they've had some decent success with. It's

1049
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 4: kind of a grind though to get up and downfield

1050
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 4: drives could take a while, but LA is number two

1051
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 4: in the league in percentage of rushes on early downs

1052
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 4: in the first half at fifty seven percent. Only the

1053
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 4: New England Patriots have run it more in those spots,

1054
00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 4: so that naturally plays into the under. And you're also

1055
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 4: gonna have you may have some inclement weather. Eleven to

1056
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 4: thirteen mile prour wins in the forecast, the under is

1057
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 4: fifty five percent when it gets to ten or more. Historically,

1058
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 4: the Buffalo under with Josh Allen, of course is two

1059
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 4: zero and two. This year he's been lighting it up,

1060
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 4: but still even with those two defeats, still nineteen and

1061
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,760
Speaker 4: ten sixty six percent all time with him as a starter,

1062
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 4: And I don't think it'll be quite as easy to

1063
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 4: get that beat ball with some tougher weather and with

1064
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 4: that ram Secondary, which still is a strength, you know,

1065
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 4: regardless if they're not getting as much pass rush, they

1066
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 4: can still defend on the boundaries.

1067
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 2: We saw that.

1068
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 4: That was really the reason to me that they won

1069
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 4: that game against Dallas. It's because every time you know,

1070
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 4: a Mari or Ceedee Lamb caught a ball. For the

1071
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,800
Speaker 4: most part, LA was right there with their corners. It

1072
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 4: wasn't even just Ramsey. Of course, he makes the play

1073
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 4: at the end, get you know, sells the call.

1074
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 2: So I think it's going to be.

1075
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 4: A low scoring game, and so I actually favor this

1076
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:50,200
Speaker 4: total more than either side in this one.

1077
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 2: I think it is a toss up.

1078
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 4: I think if I wasn't as worried about Josh Allen,

1079
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,279
Speaker 4: I would probably have this power rated Bills by three

1080
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 4: three and a half. But sticking with the two and

1081
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 4: a half, just because it's hard to predict that you

1082
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,959
Speaker 4: know whether he's gonna like fumble it or something like that.

1083
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 5: I'll just respond with a question to you. This is

1084
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 5: clearly the best secondary the Bills will faced, right, They've

1085
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 5: faced the Dolphins and the Jets the first two weeks, so,

1086
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 5: but they've been throwing as much as anybody in the NFL.

1087
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 5: You know, based on when the games was not out

1088
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 5: of hand over the first two weeks. Do you have

1089
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 5: you adjusted like because the Bills are supposed to be

1090
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 5: a run heavy team, have you adjusted like the amount

1091
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 5: of touches? Do you think that continues. That's the only

1092
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 5: thing that I would worry about. I mean, Bills are

1093
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:33,759
Speaker 5: just chucking it.

1094
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 2: I don't because you look at those matchups.

1095
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 4: It's Miami and the Jets, two of the worst defenses

1096
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 4: in the week, And like, if you were the coach,

1097
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 4: do you want Josh Allen dropping back and wedding, you know,

1098
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 4: Aaron Donald go on the interior and it throwing the

1099
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 4: Jamien Ramsey and Johnson and all those guys and Hill,

1100
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 4: who's extremely underrated in what could be some bad weather.

1101
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 4: Absolutely not. This is a game where I think Buffalo

1102
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 4: has to be more conservative. And I guess I'll answer

1103
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 4: it this way. Dallas got down. I looked in the

1104
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 4: Action Network at last week, had a two percent chance

1105
00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 4: of winning that game against the Fulton, or it might

1106
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 4: even been one percent. They put up forty in that game.

1107
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,480
Speaker 4: They were held to seventeen by the Rams just a

1108
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 4: week before. I know Atlanta's defense is bad, but that

1109
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 4: was still an impressive showing by the Rams defense. And

1110
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:23,240
Speaker 4: you know Josh Allen, you know, with a healthier offensive line,

1111
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 4: and it's still not as.

1112
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 2: Good as that Cowboys offense with Zeke and Dak and Lamar,

1113
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 2: you know those guys.

1114
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 4: So I think this is one of the most mispriced

1115
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 4: totals of the week. I think that this is where

1116
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 4: you catch the people with the overreaction. Even more is

1117
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,319
Speaker 4: that you know Josh Allen threw for East week the

1118
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 4: week in passing. You know, the Ram put up thirty

1119
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 4: seven last week because Philadelphia is a dumpster fire at

1120
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 4: the moment. So I think the way to capitalize on

1121
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 4: the overreaction in this spot is to take the under

1122
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 4: at forty seven and a half, I have it almost

1123
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 4: a field goal lower.

1124
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:58,319
Speaker 5: Fair enough for my favorite total of the week. I'm

1125
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:02,720
Speaker 5: going to Denver and I'm going with the under under

1126
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 5: four at BETMGM. It's under forty three and a half.

1127
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 5: I also like the first half under twenty one and

1128
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 5: a half is anything over twenty one. These are two

1129
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 5: teams who don't want to play fast, which will certainly

1130
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 5: help the under. But if you look at what Tampa

1131
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:19,879
Speaker 5: wants to do, they want to try throwing it more

1132
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 5: down the field. It's just gonna take Brady time to

1133
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 5: learn this new scheme. Is gonna need reps. He's gonna

1134
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:30,160
Speaker 5: need to develop chemistry with reserve receivers. And what that's

1135
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 5: leading to is it's just gonna lead to, you know,

1136
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 5: some mistimed routes, some bad throws that are just gonna

1137
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:38,240
Speaker 5: kill drives. And that's what's going on with this Tampa

1138
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 5: offense right now. I'm, you know, assuming that Brady still

1139
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 5: has it and still has the arm strength to run

1140
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 5: a more downfield aerial attack. Their timing and their chemistry

1141
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 5: will get there. There's too much talent on the outside,

1142
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 5: and this offense will get better and better throughout the year,

1143
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 5: but right now just a little bit off. And they're

1144
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 5: going against the Denver defense that despite not having von

1145
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 5: Miller and despite not having aj Buie, they've you can

1146
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:05,800
Speaker 5: really see the development and the progression of this defense

1147
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 5: in near to of Vic Fangio. You know, what he

1148
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 5: wants to do is not give up anything deep, and

1149
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:13,800
Speaker 5: they've really competed against you know, two pretty good teams

1150
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 5: in the AFC that have a lot of explosiveness. The

1151
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 5: defense is playing well enough for me to keep rusty

1152
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay offense and check they're gonna bend. Tampa's gonna

1153
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 5: be able to move the ball times. But you know,

1154
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 5: like Denver, they're gonna most likely have stellar red zone defense.

1155
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 5: I think you're gonna see a couple drive killing throws

1156
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 5: from Brady, a lot of punts, a lot of field

1157
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,840
Speaker 5: goal attempts. On the other side. Look this Tampa defense,

1158
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:43,280
Speaker 5: I said, it's a regression candidate. They've been great across

1159
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 5: the board. We know the run defense is good and

1160
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:48,959
Speaker 5: they're going up against you know, Denver's backup quarterback without

1161
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,840
Speaker 5: their number one receiver. They're gonna be able to get pressure.

1162
00:55:52,520 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 5: The Tampa defense should have a day. So I think

1163
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,840
Speaker 5: this is a very low scoring game. Lots of punts,

1164
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 5: lots of field goals, grind your type of game like

1165
00:56:00,760 --> 00:56:03,240
Speaker 5: we've seen, like we kind of saw in that first

1166
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 5: game with Tennessee and Denver. So give me the under

1167
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 5: in the Buccaneers Broncos game.

1168
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 2: Love it.

1169
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 4: I actually took Denver's team total under at nineteen and

1170
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:16,960
Speaker 4: a half as well.

1171
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 2: I like this spot.

1172
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 4: I don't think either of these teams are going to

1173
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 4: do much on offense, and mile High unders have been

1174
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 4: the second most profitable since the extra point was moved

1175
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:32,319
Speaker 4: back in twenty fifteen, second most profitable stadium to bet

1176
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 4: unders twenty five to fifteen and one sixty percent plus

1177
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 4: twenty one percent ROI and twelve and three when the

1178
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 4: visitor the team visiting the Broncos is on an overstreak

1179
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:50,440
Speaker 4: of any length, Tampa Bay on a two game overstreak.

1180
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 4: Both of their games have gone over the total this season.

1181
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 4: I make it Tampa Bay four and a half with

1182
00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 4: an under a forty over under a forty one, So

1183
00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,719
Speaker 4: I am right with you on this one.

1184
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 2: I love it.

1185
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 4: Also think Tampa Bay probably a little bit overvalued, but

1186
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 4: rather just fade Denver with the backup quarterback after they

1187
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 4: had what I think is kind of some outlying success

1188
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,400
Speaker 4: against Pittsburgh last week. Though I do think Judy and

1189
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 4: Fant they're going to be formidable to hold up in

1190
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 4: Sutton's absence, but that's still a big loss, and you're

1191
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 4: still without Philip Windsy.

1192
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 5: Yep. I completely agree with you, and I would. I'm

1193
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 5: i'd make this still even with all the adjustments like

1194
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 5: four ish, so I'm hoping, I think there's value with

1195
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 5: Denver again for the third week in a row, and

1196
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 5: but I'm hoping I can get seven. Hope we get

1197
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 5: some late public money. It's Brady versus Driscoll. But I

1198
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 5: completely agree with you when everything you said as well.

1199
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's honestly, I think we should just

1200
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 4: stick with the unders here. I mean, you really want

1201
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 4: to like go Brady against Driscoll, Like I know, like

1202
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 4: the Tampa Bay is being overvalue.

1203
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 5: But if I get a touchdown, absolutely I did it.

1204
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,240
Speaker 5: I did it last week. I got Driscoll at Pitt.

1205
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 5: I didn't know it was gonna be Driscoll going in,

1206
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 5: but a touchdown depth only. If not, probably just roll

1207
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 5: with the unders.

1208
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 4: Hey, Drisco has been not worse than Drew Locke in

1209
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 4: his right, So yeah, not great, but nah, well it's

1210
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 4: not a high bar, all right. So that was our

1211
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 4: favorite total of the week. I'm going with Rams Bills

1212
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:21,920
Speaker 4: under forty seven and a half, Stucky going with Bucks

1213
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 4: Broncos under forty three and a half.

1214
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our favorite teaser segment.

1215
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:31,920
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers all right.

1216
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 4: For those not familiar with teasers, when you combine two

1217
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 4: or more bets and you get six additional points towards

1218
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,000
Speaker 4: the spread of each of the bets. So, for example,

1219
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 4: if you are teasing an eight point favorite, they become

1220
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:46,439
Speaker 4: a two point favorite, and an eight point underdog would

1221
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:48,760
Speaker 4: become a fourteen point underdog.

1222
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 2: Stuck who you got this week?

1223
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 5: Look, it's completely separate. It's the long teaser. I've done

1224
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 5: a lot of pieces about it, talked about it a lot,

1225
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,240
Speaker 5: teasing through three and seven. What that would be this

1226
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 5: week is Minnesota teasing them from two and a half

1227
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 5: up to eight and a half and teasing the Rams

1228
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 5: up from two and a half to eight and a half.

1229
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 5: I also would maybe tease the Vikings up with the

1230
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 5: Patriots down, I make that line over seven, but I'll

1231
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 5: go Rams Vikings. Look, I'm so low in the Vikings,

1232
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 5: been preaching about. I downgraded them again, but I still

1233
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 5: think that there's value in the Vikings here. I want

1234
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:24,920
Speaker 5: to get three, but teasing them over seven. Look, Tennessee

1235
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 5: has been kind of a mess. They lost the yards

1236
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 5: per play battle in both their games. They've won both

1237
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,840
Speaker 5: games on Steven Goskowski game winning field goals. They might

1238
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:36,480
Speaker 5: not have aj Brown again this week. Their secondary is

1239
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 5: decimated with injuries. John hu Smith also has an injury too,

1240
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,000
Speaker 5: so you don't know who's going to be playing for them.

1241
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 5: Tennessee's still not getting pressure twenty nine and adjusted Sachery

1242
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 5: and their secondary is just lost right now due to injuries.

1243
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:51,440
Speaker 5: So Cousins is gonna have time. I expect him to

1244
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 5: bounce back. I would love to get three year, but

1245
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 5: it's a great tease piece. So I'll go. And I

1246
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:57,440
Speaker 5: know him on the Bills, but it's just it's a

1247
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:00,680
Speaker 5: separate play. The Matt says he's through the seven, So

1248
01:00:00,720 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 5: I'll say Rams and Vikings.

1249
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:05,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

1250
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 4: You know, I'm probably gonna just stay away because the

1251
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 4: Vikings have burned me as I mentioned earlier. But something

1252
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 4: to think about. Why were the Titans having so much

1253
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 4: success last year? You know, Ryan Sannehill play actions and

1254
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 4: also Dereck Henry explosive plays well early in the year.

1255
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 2: Historically he struggled.

1256
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:24,479
Speaker 4: To get those explosive plays the way he does later

1257
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 4: in the year when you have more defensive injuries. It's colder,

1258
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 4: harder to tackle a big guy. Career yards per carry

1259
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 4: for Henry September three point eight, October three point eight, seven,

1260
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:38,439
Speaker 4: November five point eight, seven, December and January five point

1261
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:41,240
Speaker 4: three to two. He's been under four yards per carry

1262
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 4: in eight of his last ten September games, including both

1263
01:00:44,080 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 4: this year. Denver three point seven, Jacksonville just three point four.

1264
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 4: If he's not breaking off big plays and they have

1265
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 4: no Aj Brown and they have a shaky field goal kicker,

1266
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 4: this game's gonna be close. I have it power rated

1267
01:00:57,440 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 4: as the Titans just one point favorites. So I'm actually

1268
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:02,960
Speaker 4: right there with you. Don't know if I'm going to

1269
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 4: pull the trigger, but totally agree that the Titans are

1270
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 4: getting a little too much love in this spot. For

1271
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 4: my teaser, I am going with the Rams as well.

1272
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 4: I actually have the Rams rated equally to the Bills.

1273
01:01:15,840 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 4: I think that they're coaching is making up for a

1274
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 4: lot and I think even though the offensive line, you know,

1275
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:22,800
Speaker 4: people will kind of sniff at a scoff at it,

1276
01:01:22,880 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 4: but it still has continuity. You know, now that everyone's healthy,

1277
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 4: they do have some continuity there and it's played a

1278
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 4: lot better, and that mixed with the coaching, I think

1279
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:33,919
Speaker 4: in the potential for it to stay close because you're

1280
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 4: going to probably have a lower scoring game. I think

1281
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 4: Buffalo played a little bit closer to the vest with

1282
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 4: some playmakers on defense on the other side. So I

1283
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 4: like the Rams up to eight and a half and

1284
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:46,200
Speaker 4: going with Houston at plus ten. It's not through the three,

1285
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 4: but if you can, you know, if it goes back

1286
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 4: to four and a half and you can get past

1287
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 4: ten and a half, which you may not, because that's

1288
01:01:51,400 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 4: why the line I think got bet down because it

1289
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 4: was like six and I think we all have it

1290
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 4: like five and a half to six. But like Houston

1291
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 4: in this spot, they've been just outplayed against two of

1292
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 4: the toughest teams in the league, and I just expect

1293
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 4: a good effort from them this week. Deshaun Watson still

1294
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 4: twelve and seven in his career as an underdog, so

1295
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:12,960
Speaker 4: getting up to the ten I think should help in

1296
01:02:13,000 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 4: a spot where Pittsburgh it could be somewhat of a

1297
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 4: trap spot, you know for them. Uh, you know, we've

1298
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 4: seen the line kind of you know, bet down books

1299
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 4: are kind of begging people to take some action on

1300
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 4: their on their line. They're dead last in offensive success

1301
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 4: rate on the on the year, not just early downs,

1302
01:02:31,520 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 4: but they're dead last. And that surprised me because you know,

1303
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 4: they look like they kind of got it together against

1304
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:39,800
Speaker 4: the Giants a little bit, but just on a per

1305
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 4: plate basis in terms of the you know, getting you know,

1306
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:45,280
Speaker 4: yarders that's leading towards first downs, they're not doing a

1307
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:45,760
Speaker 4: good job.

1308
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:47,320
Speaker 2: They came like an.

1309
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:50,880
Speaker 4: Eighty yard Chase Claypool touchdown and a fifty nine yard

1310
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:54,600
Speaker 4: James Connor run, which we know big plays are difficult

1311
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,440
Speaker 4: to sustain and repeat. If they don't get those plays,

1312
01:02:57,440 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 4: I mean, they may lose to Drisco and le Broncos

1313
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,320
Speaker 4: lest week. You know, it wasn't easy for them last week.

1314
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 4: So I'm really high on Pittsburgh, but just kind of

1315
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 4: looking at them, they still seem to be getting some

1316
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 4: kinks out in the defense, not quite not quite as

1317
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 4: dominant yet as I think it can be. So I

1318
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 4: am going with the with the Texans teasing them from

1319
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 4: four to ten, though if it goes back to four

1320
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 4: and a half, it would make it a lot better

1321
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 4: because then you're getting through the ten and a half.

1322
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 4: But I just think the strength of schedule is a

1323
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 4: mismatch with Pittsburgh playing the Giants and the Broncos, and

1324
01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 4: you know, they didn't look that impressive in either of

1325
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 4: those games where you had Houston playing the two best

1326
01:03:36,480 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 4: teams in the league.

1327
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just brutal. I love the spot for Houston

1328
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,080
Speaker 5: at they're known two star playing the Ravens and Chiefs

1329
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 5: and talk about a brutal start. Now you have to

1330
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 5: go on the road to play Pittsburgh. Arguably you get

1331
01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:50,439
Speaker 5: argust the third best team they see. You know, pitt

1332
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 5: hasn't been but I mean the line has been. Bet

1333
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 5: on the four I make it five and a half

1334
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 5: camp at Houston, I'll be looking for them live. It's

1335
01:03:56,960 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 5: not a great matchup.

1336
01:03:57,800 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 2: On.

1337
01:03:58,400 --> 01:04:00,280
Speaker 5: Look, they give up pressure as much as any anyone,

1338
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 5: partly because Watson holds onto the ball for so long

1339
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 5: and you're going against the Steelers defensive front. That's scary.

1340
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 5: It looks like Fuller will play not on the injury report.

1341
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 5: That will help. But I just can't bet the Texans

1342
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,960
Speaker 5: at plus four, even though it is a good spot.

1343
01:04:14,120 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 5: The Steelers have been their offense, Big Ben looks rusty,

1344
01:04:17,000 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 5: the offensive line is a mess with some injuries. But

1345
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 5: I'll look for the Texans live, which I had think

1346
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 5: plus seven or greater would be night like if the

1347
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 5: Steelers get the ball, go down and score first. Oh

1348
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 5: give me, give me the Texans live. But I don't.

1349
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 5: I don't hate your teaser.

1350
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it was.

1351
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:34,600
Speaker 4: It was between this and the Vikings. But I'm gonna

1352
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 4: try to go easy on the Vikings for now. All right,

1353
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:39,320
Speaker 4: let's get into our money line underdog parlay.

1354
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1355
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:48,160
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1356
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:51,920
Speaker 4: All right, stuck where you're going this week with your

1357
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:52,680
Speaker 4: money line dog?

1358
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 5: Well, unfortunately, Look, I had three favorite in the six pack.

1359
01:04:56,680 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 5: I think it has to be a first in the

1360
01:04:58,040 --> 01:05:00,040
Speaker 5: history of the podcast for me. I was gonna go

1361
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:01,800
Speaker 5: with the Vikings, but I used them in the tea's

1362
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 5: and that they are only two and a half point on,

1363
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:05,040
Speaker 5: So I'll go with the g men. You've already been

1364
01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 5: over that game, but give me the g men.

1365
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 2: I am going with the Chicago Bears.

1366
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:12,760
Speaker 4: And this kind of goes against a lot of you

1367
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 4: know what I like.

1368
01:05:14,120 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 2: To do in Week three.

1369
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:19,040
Speaker 4: But Atlanta covered last week, you know, miraculously, even though

1370
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:21,919
Speaker 4: they had a terrible week, and you know, the whole

1371
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 4: conversation is Dan Quinn and the Falcons, how can they

1372
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 4: let this weed slip away?

1373
01:05:25,760 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 2: And the aside kick and it's not.

1374
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 4: They're still covered against the Cowboys, and so they're not

1375
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 4: They're not necessarily one of those teams that fits all

1376
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 4: those you know Week two trends with the zero and

1377
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 4: two and the two in the two and zero. So

1378
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 4: I don't feel quite as bad about it. And then

1379
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 4: you look at the spot and I think because of

1380
01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:44,200
Speaker 4: Lanta covered last week, and now they're going against the

1381
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 4: Bears team that had one good quarter in Week one

1382
01:05:46,400 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 4: and played a Giants team that you know obviously were

1383
01:05:49,880 --> 01:05:52,440
Speaker 4: struggling with with Saquan out, and you just kind of

1384
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,400
Speaker 4: expected that to be a grind in a low scoring

1385
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 4: game where they weren't gonna have to do much. But

1386
01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,560
Speaker 4: now we're going against this Falcons defense that gives every

1387
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 4: one point. I wouldn't be This is like if mister

1388
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 4: Bisky could put up what is it, three touchdowns in

1389
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:07,120
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter against Detroit, then he should have about

1390
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 4: fifteen touchdowns in his game against the Atlanta Falcons, who

1391
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 4: have just been absolutely torched by Russell Wilson and Dak

1392
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:15,840
Speaker 4: Prescott on granted two week quarterbacks.

1393
01:06:15,840 --> 01:06:18,560
Speaker 2: But this defense hasn't been good for years now.

1394
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 4: And you look at dan Quinn and he's just fifteen

1395
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 4: and sixteen. He actually has a losing record as a

1396
01:06:26,040 --> 01:06:29,920
Speaker 4: money line favorite, straight up, a losing record on the

1397
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 4: money line as a favorite in non division games fifteen

1398
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:35,920
Speaker 4: and sixteen.

1399
01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:39,440
Speaker 2: He's ten and twelve in non division.

1400
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:42,520
Speaker 4: Home games when he's a favorite, and he's just three

1401
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:47,000
Speaker 4: and nine as a moneyline favorite in the falcons last

1402
01:06:47,040 --> 01:06:50,720
Speaker 4: twelve non division games. So this is just a spot

1403
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:53,520
Speaker 4: where dan Quinn hasn't been able to write the ship.

1404
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:55,880
Speaker 4: It may happen later in the year, maybe like miraculously

1405
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:56,959
Speaker 4: hangs out to his job again.

1406
01:06:57,000 --> 01:06:57,640
Speaker 2: I don't know, but.

1407
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:02,480
Speaker 4: Early in the year, still fading this this this Falcons team.

1408
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 4: You know, this is a spot where I think people

1409
01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:08,320
Speaker 4: see like a shaky offense and they kind of discount

1410
01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 4: the Bears ability. If you look at money line underdogs,

1411
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:15,040
Speaker 4: it was a total that opens at forty eight or

1412
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 4: forty eight and a half, which you know generally is

1413
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 4: usually you know, one team, Like it's like this kind

1414
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 4: of game where Atlanta, you know, has a good offense,

1415
01:07:22,360 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 4: Chicago ash she kind of shaky on offense, but bad

1416
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:29,080
Speaker 4: defense for the favorite. Eighteen and eleven are these money

1417
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:32,000
Speaker 4: line dogs straight up in these spots with the spread,

1418
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:35,080
Speaker 4: you know, in this plus three to plus four range,

1419
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 4: I make it Bears by h plus two, So I

1420
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:42,320
Speaker 4: like locking in. You know, it's kind of value on

1421
01:07:42,480 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 4: the on the spread as well if you want it,

1422
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 4: but just going with the money line at plus one

1423
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 4: point fifty. Julio Jones also banged up, and it doesn't

1424
01:07:49,560 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 4: look quite himself for the Falcons. I don't think they

1425
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:54,720
Speaker 4: scored that many points against the against the Bears. Remember,

1426
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:57,160
Speaker 4: they still only score twenty five against the Seahawks even

1427
01:07:57,200 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 4: with all those yards, So I think it's gonna be

1428
01:07:59,080 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 4: tough for this time around.

1429
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 5: I disagree with the year obviously, I make this four

1430
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:04,919
Speaker 5: and a half. I still like the Falcons. I mean, look,

1431
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 5: this comes down to the who has the better quarterback?

1432
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:07,439
Speaker 2: Does it?

1433
01:08:07,520 --> 01:08:07,840
Speaker 5: Yes?

1434
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 2: It never does the Falcons. It never did.

1435
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:14,400
Speaker 5: Bear. The Bears are the most fraudulent tuno team I've

1436
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 5: ever seen in my life. I mean, they should have

1437
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 5: lost the lines. If every single lines defensive player doesn't

1438
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 5: get hurt or get kicked out of the game, and

1439
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 5: then they drop a wide up in touchdown pass mitchter

1440
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:26,400
Speaker 5: Bisky did nothing for three quarters, then they play the

1441
01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 5: Giants just as bad as a secondary situation. Mister Bisky

1442
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:33,719
Speaker 5: in the second half goes five of ten for twenty

1443
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:37,680
Speaker 5: six yards and two picks. One of those five completions

1444
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:40,240
Speaker 5: was on a fourth down and the double coverage that

1445
01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 5: got tipped and an offensive lineman caught it to convert.

1446
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:46,080
Speaker 5: He Look, the Bears, I have not changed anything with

1447
01:08:46,120 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 5: their power ratings. It's still a terrible football team that

1448
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 5: just lucked their way into two wins. I just don't

1449
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:53,679
Speaker 5: think that he'll be able to keep up with Atlanta.

1450
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,920
Speaker 5: I know Atlanta's defense is terrible, the secondary is terrible. Mitchell,

1451
01:08:56,960 --> 01:08:59,400
Speaker 5: make one or two awful throws. I don't think that

1452
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:01,800
Speaker 5: they'll keep up, but it is dan Quinn and it

1453
01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:03,640
Speaker 5: is the Falcons, so I'm sure that they'll fail in

1454
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 5: fourth downs and in the red zone and the Bears

1455
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:05,559
Speaker 5: will win.

1456
01:09:06,080 --> 01:09:09,240
Speaker 4: It's a fade on the Falcons where I think people

1457
01:09:09,280 --> 01:09:12,200
Speaker 4: are over like from a betting perspective, because they covered,

1458
01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 4: I think people will be a little too happy to

1459
01:09:15,040 --> 01:09:17,519
Speaker 4: take the you know, the Falcons then, I mean four

1460
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 4: and a half, that's a lot for the Falcon just

1461
01:09:19,400 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 4: given their like in at the two guy closing out

1462
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:24,400
Speaker 4: game like they're like a the Lions two point zero essentially.

1463
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 4: Let's get into our best of the rest, all right,

1464
01:09:30,280 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 4: Let's start with Cincinnati at Philly. Philly five and a

1465
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:36,799
Speaker 4: half point favorites total of forty six and a half.

1466
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 4: Fletcher Cots look like he's gonna miss and jaywen Rager

1467
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:42,240
Speaker 4: the wide out just went on, ir what are your thoughts?

1468
01:09:42,240 --> 01:09:42,519
Speaker 3: Stucking?

1469
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have to adjust for Fletcher Cox, But I

1470
01:09:46,040 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 5: mean the Eagles still have a really good defensive line

1471
01:09:48,680 --> 01:09:51,759
Speaker 5: that should dominate this line of scrimmage. I'm gonna maybe

1472
01:09:51,760 --> 01:09:54,720
Speaker 5: bring it down a little bit, but I bet the Eagles, look,

1473
01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:58,040
Speaker 5: it's a perfect by low Spot. They've been a complete disurround.

1474
01:09:58,040 --> 01:10:00,760
Speaker 5: I hated the Eagles coming into the year them, but

1475
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:04,080
Speaker 5: I also hated the Bengals. The Bengals defense is atrocious,

1476
01:10:04,240 --> 01:10:07,880
Speaker 5: their offensive line is atrocious. Joe Burrow, I think is

1477
01:10:07,880 --> 01:10:10,760
Speaker 5: the solution at quarterback and is doing some good things,

1478
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,280
Speaker 5: a lot of short passes, and he's going to be

1479
01:10:13,280 --> 01:10:14,960
Speaker 5: really good, but it's still going to take some time.

1480
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 5: The Eagles, of course, once has been the worst quarterback

1481
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 5: in the NFL, no question about it. Through two weeks.

1482
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:25,479
Speaker 5: These defensive yards over replacement has been the worst of

1483
01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:28,759
Speaker 5: any quarterback in any two game stretch over the past

1484
01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:31,479
Speaker 5: ten years, the first two weeks, any two game stretch.

1485
01:10:31,760 --> 01:10:33,639
Speaker 5: But this game, you could just hand the ball off

1486
01:10:33,680 --> 01:10:35,439
Speaker 5: and you can lob it to your tight ends against

1487
01:10:35,439 --> 01:10:37,720
Speaker 5: the Bengals and just completely move the ball up and

1488
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 5: down the field like we saw with the Browns. So

1489
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:44,639
Speaker 5: I make this over seven Rager and Cox. It hurts,

1490
01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:49,680
Speaker 5: but I think the Eagles can exploit the Bengals up

1491
01:10:49,960 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 5: the middle of the field, and even if Cox misses,

1492
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 5: they can get pressure from Burrow. They can dominate the

1493
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:56,559
Speaker 5: line of scrimmage. I'm still super low in the Bengals.

1494
01:10:56,920 --> 01:10:58,920
Speaker 5: I was super low and still super low in the

1495
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:01,360
Speaker 5: Eagles Darius Slays and the answer to your defensive problems

1496
01:11:01,360 --> 01:11:04,320
Speaker 5: like I've been saying, and but I make those over seven.

1497
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:08,920
Speaker 5: So I'd lay anything under seven with the Eagles in

1498
01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:14,839
Speaker 5: a really really strong bi low spot after they've failed

1499
01:11:14,840 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 5: to cover in their first two weeks by an average

1500
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 5: of five or more and teams that do that. This

1501
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:24,799
Speaker 5: includes the Jets too, which we'll get to next. Teams

1502
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,400
Speaker 5: that haven't covered by an app in the first two

1503
01:11:27,400 --> 01:11:29,360
Speaker 5: weeks and haven't covered by an average of five points

1504
01:11:29,439 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 5: or more Eagles and the Jets since two thousand and three.

1505
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:36,800
Speaker 5: They're fifty and twenty six against the spreads in and

1506
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 5: sixty six percent. So I'm on the Eagles here. It's

1507
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:42,479
Speaker 5: stinks hold your nose.

1508
01:11:43,040 --> 01:11:45,639
Speaker 2: I actually like the contrarian under in this game.

1509
01:11:45,760 --> 01:11:49,320
Speaker 4: In the Doug Peterson era, the home under for the

1510
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 4: Eagles twenty five and eleven sixty nine percent. Wink and

1511
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:55,320
Speaker 4: Financial has been the most profitable stadiums to bet unders

1512
01:11:55,760 --> 01:11:59,400
Speaker 4: since twenty fifteen, and aj Green averaging three point six

1513
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:01,960
Speaker 4: yards per t get Joe Burrows targeted and way too much.

1514
01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 4: I think he's feeling the pressure to target to the

1515
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,479
Speaker 4: star player that's clearly lost the step, and Slay's not

1516
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 4: been doing too bad of a job. Held Robert Woods

1517
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:12,080
Speaker 4: to just one catch in his coverage last week, and

1518
01:12:12,120 --> 01:12:15,120
Speaker 4: they also held Terry mcquaran in check in week one.

1519
01:12:15,280 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 4: So I think the Eagles really want to play this

1520
01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:20,439
Speaker 4: close to the vest and just get a win and

1521
01:12:20,439 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 4: not do anything too crazy in this one. So I'm

1522
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:27,360
Speaker 4: going with the contrarian under rather than picking a side.

1523
01:12:28,160 --> 01:12:30,880
Speaker 7: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

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1540
01:13:21,040 --> 01:13:22,519
Speaker 7: And now back to the show.

1541
01:13:24,360 --> 01:13:29,000
Speaker 4: We got the Jets eleven point underdogs at bet MGMs

1542
01:13:29,040 --> 01:13:30,799
Speaker 4: with a total of forty three and a half.

1543
01:13:31,320 --> 01:13:32,080
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?

1544
01:13:32,280 --> 01:13:34,599
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mentioned that trend on Iron Love, but sometimes

1545
01:13:34,600 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 5: you got to look at teams and some teams are

1546
01:13:36,760 --> 01:13:38,559
Speaker 5: just not meant to be bet in a certain year.

1547
01:13:38,800 --> 01:13:41,759
Speaker 5: Jets are dumpster fire culture, control the line of scrimmage

1548
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:45,599
Speaker 5: on both sides. I make this nine point nine, so

1549
01:13:45,640 --> 01:13:48,400
Speaker 5: there's no real value either way. I threw the Colts

1550
01:13:48,439 --> 01:13:51,320
Speaker 5: into a money line parlay with the Ravens to get

1551
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:53,160
Speaker 5: them down. Sadly, we won't be able to debate that

1552
01:13:53,160 --> 01:13:55,240
Speaker 5: game on Monday, but I'm very confident that the Ravens win,

1553
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:57,839
Speaker 5: so we'll be talk about that on our Sunday Night podcast.

1554
01:13:57,920 --> 01:14:00,840
Speaker 5: But I can't bet the Jets. I also can't lay

1555
01:14:00,840 --> 01:14:03,240
Speaker 5: it here based on the number, but it's I'm not

1556
01:14:03,360 --> 01:14:05,400
Speaker 5: just blindly buying low on the Jets here.

1557
01:14:05,800 --> 01:14:09,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, after I adjusted for injuries, you have Brashad Perriman

1558
01:14:09,880 --> 01:14:13,639
Speaker 4: out for the Jets, Connor McGovern center out, Crowder still

1559
01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:15,680
Speaker 4: fifty with a hamstring.

1560
01:14:16,160 --> 01:14:17,040
Speaker 2: I actually have.

1561
01:14:17,080 --> 01:14:19,280
Speaker 4: It at eleven and a half. But I'm not laying that.

1562
01:14:19,360 --> 01:14:21,599
Speaker 4: I'm just going to stay away. You looking at him Gase,

1563
01:14:22,040 --> 01:14:24,680
Speaker 4: he is ten and eighteen against the spread as a

1564
01:14:24,760 --> 01:14:28,840
Speaker 4: road underdog thirty six percent, but seven and two when

1565
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 4: the spread is five or below, but once it gets

1566
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:35,800
Speaker 4: to five and a half or higher just four and

1567
01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:41,640
Speaker 4: fifteen twenty one percent in his career as a road underdog.

1568
01:14:41,800 --> 01:14:44,400
Speaker 4: So would not be surprised at all to see the

1569
01:14:44,479 --> 01:14:50,719
Speaker 4: Coats blow out a team for a second consecutive week.

1570
01:14:51,000 --> 01:14:53,400
Speaker 4: Wavey on Bell last year first year with the Jets

1571
01:14:53,400 --> 01:14:56,080
Speaker 4: career low three point two yards per carry in year one,

1572
01:14:56,120 --> 01:14:59,080
Speaker 4: Frank Gore averaging a career row three point two yards

1573
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:03,439
Speaker 4: per carry. The Jets have been the number nine graded

1574
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:07,080
Speaker 4: team in PFF run blocking, and they're still thirty first

1575
01:15:07,240 --> 01:15:10,240
Speaker 4: in rushing yards per game. They're also dead west in

1576
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:11,120
Speaker 4: past blocking.

1577
01:15:11,280 --> 01:15:14,360
Speaker 2: This will not go well for the Jets.

1578
01:15:14,479 --> 01:15:17,599
Speaker 4: We have the Washington football team going to Cleveland seven

1579
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,360
Speaker 4: point favorites total forty four and a half. Cleveland getting

1580
01:15:20,360 --> 01:15:23,200
Speaker 4: back Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson at corner. It looks

1581
01:15:23,280 --> 01:15:26,120
Speaker 4: like along with winebacker Mac Wilson.

1582
01:15:26,160 --> 01:15:26,960
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts stuck?

1583
01:15:27,600 --> 01:15:29,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, you also want to keep your eye on the

1584
01:15:29,400 --> 01:15:32,760
Speaker 5: Browns offensive line. This could be and their injuries. This

1585
01:15:32,800 --> 01:15:35,160
Speaker 5: could be a game where both defensive lines really dominate

1586
01:15:35,200 --> 01:15:38,760
Speaker 5: the game. But in the end, the Browns have more weapons.

1587
01:15:39,360 --> 01:15:41,080
Speaker 5: The Browns have a better seconder, which I think will

1588
01:15:41,080 --> 01:15:42,880
Speaker 5: be the different spot I make the line spot on

1589
01:15:43,320 --> 01:15:45,479
Speaker 5: This to me looks like a pure stay away.

1590
01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:48,360
Speaker 4: I lean toward the under in this one as well.

1591
01:15:48,560 --> 01:15:50,800
Speaker 4: We could be getting fifteen miles per hour wins ultil

1592
01:15:50,840 --> 01:15:54,479
Speaker 4: like twenty percent chance of rain, and Browns have Denzel

1593
01:15:54,479 --> 01:15:58,840
Speaker 4: Award who can take away Terry McLaurin and I agree.

1594
01:15:58,840 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 4: I think the Washington football team, their front seven is

1595
01:16:02,360 --> 01:16:05,240
Speaker 4: still ferocious, and the Browns, you know, they want to

1596
01:16:05,320 --> 01:16:06,960
Speaker 4: run the ball. This is not a spot to let

1597
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:10,120
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield just drop back all day against this front seven,

1598
01:16:10,160 --> 01:16:13,439
Speaker 4: even with some deficiencies in the secondary. So I am

1599
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:16,599
Speaker 4: looking at the under at f forty.

1600
01:16:16,400 --> 01:16:17,880
Speaker 2: Four and a half. I make it a couple of

1601
01:16:17,920 --> 01:16:19,080
Speaker 2: points lower.

1602
01:16:19,600 --> 01:16:22,480
Speaker 4: The final game, we have to get to the Panthers

1603
01:16:22,520 --> 01:16:26,479
Speaker 4: six and a half point Dogs going to LA to

1604
01:16:26,600 --> 01:16:30,920
Speaker 4: face the Chargers win this team versus the team of

1605
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 4: the better record fifty nine percent? Do we back the

1606
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:36,719
Speaker 4: Panthers here is just just to stay away stuff.

1607
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:39,559
Speaker 5: Yeah, I made this slightly under seven. And the Chargers

1608
01:16:39,720 --> 01:16:42,200
Speaker 5: I loved last week against the Chiefs. They're built to

1609
01:16:42,240 --> 01:16:44,000
Speaker 5: be a good underdog this year where they want the

1610
01:16:44,040 --> 01:16:45,559
Speaker 5: way they want to play. But this isn't a team

1611
01:16:45,560 --> 01:16:48,400
Speaker 5: built as a to cover. As a big favorite of

1612
01:16:48,439 --> 01:16:50,640
Speaker 5: the touchdown or more. If you can get over a

1613
01:16:50,680 --> 01:16:53,840
Speaker 5: touchdown or a touchdown either live or before the game

1614
01:16:53,880 --> 01:16:56,160
Speaker 5: with the Panthers take it. I know they do all McCaffrey,

1615
01:16:56,200 --> 01:16:58,360
Speaker 5: but their coaches have done a good job given the

1616
01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:01,599
Speaker 5: circumstances there, and they've heated in both of their games

1617
01:17:01,600 --> 01:17:04,040
Speaker 5: so far, even though they gave up a lay touchdown

1618
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:06,599
Speaker 5: meaning let's touchdown the cost you last week. But yeah,

1619
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:08,240
Speaker 5: I was able to get seven and a half minus

1620
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:11,040
Speaker 5: one fifteen earlier in the week. If it's under seven,

1621
01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:12,720
Speaker 5: which is where it is now, it's a pass For.

1622
01:17:12,800 --> 01:17:15,519
Speaker 4: Me, yeah, I feel the same way. I have it

1623
01:17:15,600 --> 01:17:20,400
Speaker 4: power rated as Panthers plus six. I do worry about

1624
01:17:20,479 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 4: McCaffrey though. I like the under again in this one

1625
01:17:23,320 --> 01:17:26,360
Speaker 4: more than a side. You look at Anthony Wynn, who

1626
01:17:26,479 --> 01:17:30,040
Speaker 4: is a former running back and a former running backs coach.

1627
01:17:30,800 --> 01:17:34,800
Speaker 2: His under went in LA at home and just in

1628
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:35,360
Speaker 2: his career.

1629
01:17:35,439 --> 01:17:37,440
Speaker 4: I believe he had a couple of games with the Bills,

1630
01:17:38,120 --> 01:17:41,400
Speaker 4: but eighteen and seven toward the under seventy two percent.

1631
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:46,720
Speaker 4: The Chargers have run an NFL high forty one point

1632
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:50,080
Speaker 4: five rushing plays per game. Now, I know that's a

1633
01:17:50,080 --> 01:17:53,160
Speaker 4: little inflated because of overtime, but the Chargers are also

1634
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:56,920
Speaker 4: top three in early down rush rate at fifty six

1635
01:17:56,960 --> 01:18:00,360
Speaker 4: percent in the first half. So I think you have

1636
01:18:00,400 --> 01:18:02,200
Speaker 4: on one side a team that wants to run the ball,

1637
01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:06,120
Speaker 4: decent defense, and you have the Carolina Panthers without their

1638
01:18:06,120 --> 01:18:09,160
Speaker 4: best uh you know weapon overall offensively and one of

1639
01:18:09,200 --> 01:18:11,280
Speaker 4: their top west weapons in the passing game, which we

1640
01:18:11,320 --> 01:18:15,120
Speaker 4: know affects uh the point differential and points scored a

1641
01:18:15,120 --> 01:18:17,599
Speaker 4: lot more than you know, just flat out you know running.

1642
01:18:17,680 --> 01:18:21,200
Speaker 4: So uh, I think it's a good underspot. But yeah,

1643
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:25,520
Speaker 4: also would like the Panthers at more than a touchdown.

1644
01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:27,559
Speaker 4: That's gonna do it for best of the rest. Let's

1645
01:18:27,560 --> 01:18:30,080
Speaker 4: get into our Survivor, who will pick of the week

1646
01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 4: and then get out of here.

1647
01:18:31,840 --> 01:18:32,920
Speaker 5: One pick.

1648
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:38,880
Speaker 1: One chance to advance Survivor.

1649
01:18:40,360 --> 01:18:44,120
Speaker 4: All right, stuck, you used the Bills and the Grounds

1650
01:18:44,160 --> 01:18:48,000
Speaker 4: so far, both of those teams have won. I've used

1651
01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:52,679
Speaker 4: the Steelers and the Titans, who just barely won last week.

1652
01:18:53,240 --> 01:18:54,680
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna say I'm going I'm going with the

1653
01:18:54,720 --> 01:18:56,679
Speaker 4: coach this week. I don't you know, it's not often

1654
01:18:56,680 --> 01:18:57,519
Speaker 4: you get to play the Jets.

1655
01:18:58,680 --> 01:18:59,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, but eleven.

1656
01:19:00,600 --> 01:19:03,320
Speaker 4: Like as much as I'm worried about Rivers, I am

1657
01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:04,920
Speaker 4: even more worried about the Jets.

1658
01:19:04,960 --> 01:19:08,200
Speaker 2: I Mean, there's nothing good about this team and Adam Gase.

1659
01:19:08,479 --> 01:19:10,639
Speaker 2: Like there's a huge coaching miss match with Frank Craig

1660
01:19:10,640 --> 01:19:11,400
Speaker 2: against Adams.

1661
01:19:11,920 --> 01:19:14,559
Speaker 5: Yeah. I'm still sticking on my plan. I wrote a

1662
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:16,840
Speaker 5: pizza from my Survivor plan this year. My plan for

1663
01:19:16,880 --> 01:19:20,640
Speaker 5: Week three was the Patriots on a short week for

1664
01:19:20,800 --> 01:19:23,599
Speaker 5: the Raiders, and I'm rolling with New England here.

1665
01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:24,679
Speaker 2: Not bad, not bad.

1666
01:19:25,680 --> 01:19:27,439
Speaker 4: I think you have to kind of take advantage of

1667
01:19:27,479 --> 01:19:29,880
Speaker 4: the Pats, especially early in the year with Cam Newton

1668
01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:33,080
Speaker 4: healthy because again I have my doubts about whether he'll

1669
01:19:33,120 --> 01:19:33,599
Speaker 4: be able.

1670
01:19:33,400 --> 01:19:34,840
Speaker 2: To make it through the whole year.

1671
01:19:35,439 --> 01:19:39,080
Speaker 4: But great show, Stuck, congrats again on the big week

1672
01:19:39,439 --> 01:19:42,559
Speaker 4: last week. You guys can find Stucky on Twitter at

1673
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:45,519
Speaker 4: Stucky two and at the same handle in the Action

1674
01:19:45,720 --> 01:19:48,479
Speaker 4: Network app, and you can find me at Chris Raybond

1675
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:53,320
Speaker 4: on both. We have Stucky and Colin Wilson with their

1676
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:57,400
Speaker 4: college podcast. Also have the Fantasy Flex coming out next week.

1677
01:19:57,400 --> 01:19:59,280
Speaker 4: A lot of great stuff, so course stay tuned to

1678
01:19:59,360 --> 01:20:02,760
Speaker 4: the channel. Leave us a rating and a review you

1679
01:20:02,760 --> 01:20:05,960
Speaker 4: would really appreciate it, and good luck on your best

1680
01:20:05,960 --> 01:20:06,680
Speaker 4: this weekend.

1681
01:20:07,240 --> 01:20:09,799
Speaker 2: Let's get this money, Ravens.

1682
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:25,559
Speaker 5: We're finished talking