1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube right now. 6 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 2: Joining us on the equity market bracket is someone with 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: a definitive memo working with heymen at evercore is, says 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel, where Sally Good brief ust this morning. How 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 2: does the Hymen Emmanuel world look with a one point 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,959 Speaker 2: seven percent growth rate? It's gotta change. 11 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 3: It definitely does change. 12 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 4: And there's no question about the fact that when you 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 4: think about what's gone on the last four to six weeks, 14 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 4: you're at one of these points where if you go 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 4: back before the pandemic, we saw the soft data lead 16 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 4: the hard data consistently for the decade before the pandemic. 17 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 4: That has not been the case since twenty twenty consistently. 18 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 4: But the questions are now open as to whether it is. 19 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 4: And so you know, whether it's one point seven, one 20 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 4: point five or. 21 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 3: Maybe even two if if things. 22 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 4: Stabilize, the risks are clearly to the downside and you 23 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 4: have to account that for that in different ways. 24 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: ISI I are the kings of hard data. What's the 25 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: hard data, you guys see? 26 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 4: So the hard to the hard data is very mixed. 27 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 4: Our team, the survey's team, led by my esteem colleague 28 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 4: Oscar Slaughterback, basically, it's it's very mixed. There's seen, and 29 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 4: it's even more complicated by the fact that, you know, 30 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 4: we've had a very poor weather winter and actually this 31 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 4: this has been a very poor cold and flu season, 32 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 4: so there's also that going on. And then of course 33 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 4: when you think about the stress and the jobs market, 34 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 4: it's primarily concentrated in that area in and around sixteen 35 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 4: hundred Pennsylvania Avenue, So very very conflicting signals. 36 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 5: How did FED Chairman j pal do yesterday? 37 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 3: Amazing? 38 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 4: Why knocking the cover off the ball? 39 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 3: Because basically, what what. 40 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 4: He needed to do was project a sense of calm 41 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 4: in an environment that is anything but calm, and he did, 42 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 4: and he made the point. You know, you can argue 43 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 4: whether the word transitory was appropriate for the situation or not, 44 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 4: but he went out of his way to make sure 45 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 4: that that got across. And if you look at the 46 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 4: last trade war in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen inflation 47 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 4: was in fact transitory. 48 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 6: So where do we go from here? If you're an investor, 49 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 6: I mean you're stepping back. You're saying, hey, I've had 50 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 6: at the peak to try off at a ten percent 51 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 6: pullback in the marketplace. If I'm in the if I'm 52 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 6: in a nastac maybe twelve thirteen percent. Is that a 53 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 6: healthy pullback in an otherwise okay market or do we 54 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 6: have something really else to worry about here? 55 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 4: Well, in our view, this is a pullback, okay, okay, 56 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 4: But look, this is one of these times where the 57 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 4: path of policy really is going to set the narrative 58 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 4: in terms of whether the pullback has more to go, 59 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 4: or whether we think you're actually starting a bottoming process, 60 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 4: you know, let alone the fact of something more sinister. 61 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 4: The market, to be clear, is pricing stagflation right now. 62 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel with a seventh corps ISSI A lengthy conversation 63 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 2: to get us started this morning. Wendy Schiller on the 64 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 2: Department of Education will be with us from run University, 65 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 2: and then on foreign exchange, which was really sophisticated this morning. 66 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: Audrey Child Freeman a strong hour here on YouTube. Subscribe 67 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg podcasts out on YouTube. Okay, Julian, so, I 68 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 2: did a nominal GDP math which I learned from ed Heim, 69 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: and while they fed, you know, guidance came out. Mohammad 70 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: Alarian nailed it in a note later in the day 71 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: out of Cambridge where he said, okay, you got a 72 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: growth dynamic, you got an inflation dynamic, and nominal GDP 73 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 2: came in as a sum total a little bit but 74 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: pretty much level nominal GDP. Do you guys model out it, 75 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 2: we'll see a reduction and nominal GDP. And if we do, 76 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 2: does that fold over into reduced revenues at the top line. 77 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 4: Well, in theory it could. But from our point of view, 78 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:43,679 Speaker 4: when you think about, you know, the trajectory of both 79 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 4: sales and earnings in corporate America right now, it's actually 80 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 4: reasonably strong and it goes back to the psychology of 81 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 4: the last couple of years. So, in essence, corporate America 82 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 4: has actually been preparing itself for the conditions we see now. 83 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: Brilliant Let me jump forward. Then, can they cut costs 84 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: fast enough? Can they adapt to maintain margins? 85 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 4: They have shown it so and there kids don't see 86 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 4: that and you bet against corporate America at your peril. 87 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 3: You absolutely do. 88 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 6: Uh. 89 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 4: And from from our point of view, the last couple 90 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 4: of years is the reason that the markets were able 91 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 4: to survive the shock of you know, the interest rate 92 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 4: medicine that we got is because we were so prepared. 93 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 4: And then there's this wonderful little tool that's going to 94 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 4: backstop productivity. I know we're tired of talking about it, 95 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 4: but AI is is is. 96 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 2: They let AI and ed Hymenshow? 97 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I can't believe it? 98 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 3: Can't help it? 99 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 2: How do you do AI with a black sharpie? 100 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 3: All right? 101 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 6: So, Julian, if the inflation impact from Taryston mayor be 102 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 6: transitory to some degree, how about the hit the one 103 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 6: just overall economic growth? Is that a serious issue? That 104 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 6: economic growth forecast need to be tempered a little bit? 105 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 4: Well, and and you're seeing it. But again, what's important 106 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 4: is the psychology around the jobs markets. It is literally 107 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 4: all about jobs. And we like to say that on balance, 108 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: if you're the retail investing public, you don't necessarily have 109 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 4: to sell your stocks while you've still got a job. 110 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 4: And so from our point of view, the way the 111 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 4: jobs market unfolds is. 112 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 3: Very very important here. And you know, we're just going 113 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 3: to have. 114 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 4: To see what the echo of the DOSEE layoffs is 115 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 4: in the private sector. 116 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 5: So what are we doing with US stocks here? 117 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 6: I had late last year, earlier this year, I had 118 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 6: everybody outside the US rushing into the US stock market. 119 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 6: I'm hearing now some of the international buyers are leaving 120 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 6: the stock market. 121 00:06:57,839 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 5: What are we doing with this? 122 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 4: So and no question, that's probably the biggest question we're getting, 123 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 4: you know, with international investors selling US stocks. You know, 124 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 4: our view is that even if you get a prolonged 125 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 4: period of rest of world outperformance, this is not a 126 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 4: zero sum game. You look at the last period that happened. 127 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 4: It's been so long ago we can barely remember it. 128 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 4: But in the OOS all the boats floated. And frankly, again, 129 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 4: this is why policy is so important. There could be 130 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 4: a world where there is you know, very positive outcomes 131 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 4: globally for policy. There may also be a world where 132 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 4: that's not the case, which is why the markets and 133 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 4: the economy and sentiment is on such an edge right now. 134 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 2: Tell us about the last paragraph of your claim. Note 135 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 2: you go in and you know, I know it's a 136 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: look back, but you sum up the revenue dynamics, revenue 137 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 2: misses down the income statement, earnings dynamics, earnings misses. Do 138 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 2: you believe I don't know when is Jay? Let me. 139 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: I can go to the Bloomberg terminal, folks and look 140 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 2: up the statistic because Paul Sweeney taught me how to 141 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 2: do it. There we go, JP Morgan. April eleven is 142 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: when we get JP Morgan? 143 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 7: What is that? 144 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 2: That's nine days after the world ends on April second? 145 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 2: Do you have any certainty about the uncertainty of your 146 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 2: acclaimed last paragraph looking into the next earning season? 147 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 4: Well, so this is going to be a season where 148 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 4: what you're going to want and half starts, as you 149 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 4: pointed out, nine days after you know, quote unquote liberation 150 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 4: day for tariffs and so so, how is corporate America 151 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 4: going to react to those nine days and talk about 152 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 4: the path forward? 153 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 2: That? 154 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 4: The issue here is will we be able to chart 155 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 4: a somewhat clearer path forward? In terms of the commentary, 156 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 4: It's less about what this quote looks like, particularly for 157 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 4: the financial companies, which you know you're gonna have mixed messages, 158 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 4: great trading, slower banking, But it really is about the 159 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 4: path forward and what the view is whether this uncertainty 160 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 4: will in fact begin to dissipate. 161 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 5: All right, So given that uncertainty, what are we doing 162 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 5: right now? Am I buying stocks? Am I buying bonds? 163 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 5: Am I buying alternatives? What are we doing here? I'm 164 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 5: mind buying protection? Maybe I don't know. 165 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 4: No, we're not buying protection that that we're that may 166 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 4: change in front of April. Second, if the market were 167 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 4: to stabilize and get a little bit complacent here. 168 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 3: But I think when you look at this morning, you know. 169 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 4: This is really a process as opposed to and off 170 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 4: to the races type of environment or where you typically 171 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 4: see volatility come in. We are gently accumulating. We're rebalancing 172 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 4: based on the draw down, with the knowledge that the 173 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 4: preconditions that end bull markets, with the biggest challenge of 174 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 4: those being an impending recession. 175 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 3: And we have to have faith and there is you know, as. 176 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 4: An investor, you've got to have faith, period, but having 177 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 4: faith that the course of policy and the resilience of 178 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 4: the economy is enough for twenty twenty five not to 179 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 4: be a recessionary or which we believe it to be quickly. 180 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 2: Here evercore Isi, how do you go through the process 181 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 2: of the recession. 182 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 3: Call right now, jobs jobs, jobs, Okay? 183 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 2: I agree? Four point four percent unemployment, right. 184 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 4: And so the question is when the unemployment report comes 185 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 4: out the first week in April, you know, our investors, 186 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 4: is the psychology around that report going to be such 187 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 4: that we can take that's below one hundred thousand but 188 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 4: still positive, okay? And what's the reverberation around that? And 189 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 4: from our point of view, we think there will be 190 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 4: a resilience built in at that point. 191 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel, thank you so much. Terrific summation brief there 192 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: and economics of evercore Isi and his equity market at 193 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 2: work as well. 194 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 195 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 196 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 197 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube. 198 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 2: Now. On Gold hugely anticipated with the Gabelli Goldfund, Chris 199 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: Mancini with us, the portfolio manager for Gabelli Gold. Where 200 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 2: do you model gold out? I mean, Chris, if you 201 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 2: take a vector, you take the price of gold logarithmic 202 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 2: y access, and you extrapolate out where we are. How 203 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 2: brave are you to extrapolate out the price of gold. 204 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 8: That's a great question, you know. I'm I'm not that brave. 205 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 8: I think that's the answer. After years in this industry, 206 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 8: it's like it's very you know what, what is it? 207 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 8: The you know, fortune favors the bold. But I'm not 208 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 8: so sure it makes sense to be too bold. I mean, 209 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 8: I think but but I but I do think that 210 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 8: that it's not so brave to say that I think 211 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 8: the gold is at least going to stay at this 212 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 8: price here, It'll be at least where it is now 213 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 8: by the end of the year. And I think that 214 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 8: so that, you know, maybe that is being bold because 215 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 8: I think that that that buy and large. There are 216 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 8: a lot of people, you know, on the cell side 217 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 8: who are saying that it's going to be lower by 218 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 8: the end of the year. 219 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 2: I love as Our squared. I think they have his 220 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 2: first of all, as are squared is lower than Mario Gabelli's. 221 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 2: But I think nobody in the world as an R 222 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 2: squared is removed from the performance of the S five 223 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 2: like Chris. 224 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:06,079 Speaker 5: Yes, hey, Chris, you know skill on my screen. 225 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 6: What I've got is the price of gold, and I 226 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 6: look at it every day, and I quote it every 227 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 6: day for our listeners and viewers here. 228 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 5: How about the gold mining companies, how do you think 229 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 5: about them? How do they how did they typically perform 230 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 5: visa VI the price of gold? 231 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, well that's that's the key I think is because 232 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 8: is because what's happened is that over the past five years, 233 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,599 Speaker 8: what typically happens is that there's a leverage involved in 234 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 8: the gold miner's relative to the price of gold. And 235 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 8: that's because there's there's operating leverage. Right, So it costs, say, 236 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 8: right now, fifteen hundred dollars an ounce to get an 237 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 8: ounce of gold out of the ground, and when the 238 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 8: price of gold, yeah, it's right, So it's pretty. 239 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 5: How has that changed over the years. 240 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 2: It's changed. 241 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's changed pretty significantly. So before COVID in twenty nineteen, 242 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 8: it was around one thousand dollars an ounce. Now it's 243 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 8: around fifteen hundred dollars an ounce, and that's primarily because 244 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 8: during COVID it was extremely extremely difficult to mine, Like 245 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 8: obviously you can't mine from home, and there were right 246 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 8: there were, so there were lots of restrictions in place 247 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 8: and things like that are social distancing, quarantine, someone got sick, 248 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 8: they had to quarantine everybody around them. The state of 249 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 8: Western Australia essentially had a lockdown of the entire state, 250 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 8: so you couldn't get people in and out of the state. 251 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 8: And there is a lot of labor that works in 252 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 8: the Western Australian as it came from Eastern Australia, stuff 253 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 8: like that, So the wages in Western Australia went up 254 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 8: a lot, and all these little idiosyncratic things that happened 255 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 8: all over. It really caused the price of gold, sorry, 256 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 8: the cost to mine gold to go up so much, 257 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 8: and then the cost of kind of stayed there, so 258 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 8: we're still at this level where like So what happened 259 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 8: was that the price of gold was too was fifteen hundred, 260 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 8: the cost was a thousand. The price of gold went 261 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 8: to two thousand during COVID, the cost of mind went 262 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 8: up to fifteen hundred, So the miners didn't really do 263 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 8: that well whereas they normally should. And what's happened now though, 264 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 8: is that the price of minus fifteen hundred, but the 265 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 8: cost went from two thousand to three thousand. So we're 266 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 8: seeing that the leverage now, but it hasn't been reflected 267 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 8: in the minors. 268 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 2: Help me with am like one of your major holdings, Agneco. 269 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 2: I guess it is a Canadian company, Venerable, it's been 270 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 2: around sixty years. I don't think, I mean, Paul, it's 271 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: not Apple computer return. But I'm sorry you look at 272 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 2: it versus a major US bank or a major consumer goods. 273 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 2: I mean, basically, Chris, they're minning money, right, I mean 274 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: the total return is substanting. 275 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 8: That's very true. No, no, no, that's very true. I 276 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 8: mean so that's why I said, I mean, it's we 277 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 8: don't need to be that bold to predict that goal 278 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 8: is going to stay at three thousand. But that prediction 279 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 8: would mean that for Agnico Ego, for example, at three 280 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 8: thousand dollars an ounce, they'd degenerating around an eight percent 281 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 8: free cash flow yield. So they're generating and you know, 282 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 8: with some growth, so that free cash flow yield should 283 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 8: grow over the next couple of years, and so like, yeah, 284 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 8: these companies compared to bans, compared to tech companies, are 285 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 8: generating you know, substantial free cash flow, so you know, you. 286 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 2: Know, and folks off the twenty twenty two bottom Agnico whatever. However, 287 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 2: Agnago Eagles only up one hundred and eighty seven fifty 288 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 2: one percent per year, Chris Vancini fifty nine percent of 289 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: your portfolios. Canadian tariffs discussion. I mean, you know, how 290 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 2: do tariffs play in to move in a bar of 291 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 2: gold over the Lisa Mateos. 292 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 8: Account in America. Well, that's a good question. No tariffs 293 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 8: on gold yet. I mean, but the good thing about 294 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 8: gold really is that it's, you know, such a large 295 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 8: amount of value. Isn't such a small amount of space 296 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 8: because it is so dense, right, and it's so meaning 297 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 8: that like theoretically, if there were tariffs on Canadian gold 298 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 8: to come into the United States, the Canadians could send 299 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 8: their gold to Switzerland on a you know, one planeload. 300 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 8: Wouldn't be that big of a deal to send it 301 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 8: to Switzerland, and then the Swiss could do what, you know, 302 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 8: could sell it in Germany or they or in you know, 303 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 8: somewhere in Arabia or something like that. So it's not 304 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 8: it really shouldn't affect the miners too much, thankfully. 305 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: Twenty seconds Is White Fang your favorite movie The Klondike 306 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 2: Gold Rush? 307 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, you know, it's it's up there. I do, like, 308 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 8: what's what's the other one Klondike Strike, the Alaskan gold right, 309 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 8: So they're all really good. 310 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 2: Don't be a stranger, Christmas Seon, Thank you so much. 311 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 312 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 313 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 314 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 315 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 316 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley. She has the worst job she is to 317 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 2: tie in US policy. Good luck the cacophony of Washington 318 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 2: right now, whatever your politics into trying to hang on 319 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 2: to your capital and maybe put it to work to 320 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 2: make some form of return. Monica Gerre is incredibly experienced 321 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 2: with legit budget duties for the City of New York 322 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: and also a lot of good work in the House 323 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 2: of Representatives. You know, the halls of the House. You 324 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 2: must be on the phone. What are the Republicans and separately, 325 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 2: what are the Democrats of the House telling you about 326 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 2: the madness down there. 327 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 9: I think that everyone is just trying to get through 328 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 9: this as quickly and smoothly as possible, at least from 329 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 9: the budget perspective. You know, they're essentially trying to take 330 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 9: Doge and Elon Musk recommendations and bake them into this 331 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 9: new budget bill. One of the things that I try 332 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 9: to remind folks is that while there's all of this 333 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 9: market uncertainty around tariffs, cutting and just general geopolitics, that 334 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,640 Speaker 9: by the end of the year, so if you're looking 335 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 9: August to September, if for thinking about federal fiscal years 336 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 9: what I'm talking about, there's likely to be some resolution 337 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 9: and for the political sort of rhetoric to die down 338 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 9: for a moment, because those tariff piece and the cuts 339 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 9: are all going to have to be baked in, right, 340 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 9: They're going to have to actually finalize them to vote 341 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 9: on that bill. 342 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 2: I mean, the power of you and Michael Jesus Morgan 343 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 2: staling together is really a lot of academics. Do you 344 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: see tariffs in any way moving the needle on revenue 345 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 2: generation for the budget? 346 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 9: The very high end estimates is that they think they 347 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 9: can get a trillion. Around a trillion one point three 348 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 9: was the highest estimate I've seen. Realistically, it's seeing closer 349 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 9: to maybe seven hundred eight hundred billion, But you have 350 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 9: to take into account that they're also going to be 351 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 9: tabulating existing tariff revenue, in that they're going to essentially 352 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,920 Speaker 9: be taking all tariff revenue getting it through these external 353 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 9: Revenue Service, a new sort of quasi a agency that's 354 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 9: going to funnel the money through the federal government to 355 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 9: the treasury versus just going straight to the treasury. 356 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 2: Right. 357 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 9: It creates a dynamic where now they can count it. 358 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 4: To the budget. 359 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 9: So it's already existing revenues that the US Treasury is 360 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 9: already receiving, plus new So we have to see exactly 361 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 9: what that's going to be in total. So do the 362 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 9: new tariffs actually move the needle that much? 363 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 3: Not much? 364 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 2: Does the ship with a phrase shell game come to mind? 365 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 5: Just the federal government in my mind. 366 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 6: She just lost me their completely, But she knows what 367 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 6: she's Monica, talk to us about kind of the budget, 368 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 6: keeping the government running the budget. 369 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 5: I'm told it. Just give us the timeline. 370 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 6: What should be aware of here as investors. 371 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 9: They're going to have to have a final sort of 372 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,919 Speaker 9: blueprint by May. That's what we're expecting May. Now, ok, 373 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 9: right now we're March. That you'll have you'll have an 374 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 9: understanding of what are the top priorities. It doesn't mean 375 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 9: that they're not going to change. They can change, as 376 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 9: we all know, right until midnight before the bill is passed, 377 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 9: So you have we're likely to get those final priorities 378 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 9: in May, and then the Senate is really going to 379 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 9: have to hammer out what they want this tax bill 380 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 9: to look like for us. When we're thinking through the cuts, 381 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 9: the biggest risk to the economy is do they go 382 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 9: too far, especially on the labor piece. And we're already 383 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 9: seeing some softening with the you know, the the jobs 384 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 9: numbers and you know with consumer data, and so how 385 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 9: far does the federal government go? How does that impact 386 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 9: not just federal labor, because federal labor only counts for 387 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 9: one point nine percent of the labor force. It's how 388 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 9: to the second derivative, the contractors, right get impact. 389 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 2: Contractors. 390 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 9: I'm not sure exactly that because if you're thinking about 391 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 9: the it's not just contractors, it's also your grant recipients, nonprofits, universities, 392 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 9: so it's a broader ecosystem. And so I don't have 393 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 9: a direct estimate on that today, but when we're thinking 394 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 9: through this, it's how how deep do they go? And 395 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 9: then do they actually you know, I guess make good 396 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 9: on the bet that then they can you know, spur 397 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 9: growth in the second half of this Congress, meaning twenty 398 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 9: twenty six, because Trump really has these two years to 399 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 9: do business. 400 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 2: But at the Northern Illinois University, you were hunkered down 401 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 2: there waiting to do your public policy career. Is there 402 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 2: any history in the United States of America that budget 403 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 2: cuts create growth. 404 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 9: That budget cuts create growth? I don't think so that's 405 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 9: from my understanding. Budget cuts do not create growth. Fiscal 406 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 9: stimulus right creates that multiplier effect right for. 407 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 2: The edge I saw with one two and that the 408 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 2: Biden stimulus. 409 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 9: Well, one of the things that you're that you're trying 410 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 9: to sort of balance here is that part one of 411 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 9: this administration is that restructuring, downsizing, cutting, and part two 412 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 9: of his of his his legacy setting for Trump. So 413 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 9: we're looking at the growth piece on the back end 414 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 9: of this. So if you're looking at Trump one point zero, 415 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 9: in the first time he was in office, he started 416 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 9: with a stimulus piece and then followed with austerity. So 417 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 9: we're in the reverse scenario now and we just have 418 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 9: to see if it's going to work out. 419 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 6: So when you're talking to your clients and they ask 420 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 6: you about the Trump strategy of near term pain in 421 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 6: the economy for longer term gain. Do you tell your 422 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 6: clients that's something you can bank on or are you 423 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 6: kind of dubious as to whether that can take place? 424 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 9: I would just say I would say more the latter category, 425 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 9: right of making sure that we're being prudent about how 426 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 9: we're positioning and the sectors and industries that we're looking at. 427 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 9: So one of the things I've found interesting through not 428 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 9: just assessing which sectors and industries are buffered from tariffs, 429 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 9: is that they actually also align with many of the 430 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 9: pro growth deregulatory policies of Trump. So things like financials 431 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 9: are likely to do well. You could see some activity 432 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 9: on alternative energy in the United States, so not traditional energy, 433 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 9: but alternative energy utilities. Other defensive sectors are have that 434 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 9: buffer from tariffs. But when we're thinking about pro growth, 435 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 9: its healthcare, financials, energy, and that alt section. 436 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: Can you see pro growth if your own powers modeling 437 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 2: one point seven percent? I mean, we're in a legit 438 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 2: stagflation concern. I don't understand. I get Washington doesn't understand 439 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 2: economics and finance. We all know that, but can they 440 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 2: really establish a quote unquote pro growth strategy. 441 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 9: I think they can in twenty twenty six. So for us, 442 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 9: you have to account for the tax cuts and deregulation 443 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 9: coming to really fruition in that second year. 444 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: This year. 445 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 9: No, So from a tactical perspective, it's trying to find 446 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 9: when I'm highlighting those sectors, it's where we see an 447 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 9: overlap with tariff's and growth policy, right, tariff tariff insulation 448 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 9: and the growth policy. So I think that that's an 449 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 9: interesting place to look and try and essentially hedge on 450 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 9: both of those issues. 451 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Monica gre Morgan Stanley on policy 452 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 2: this morning. 453 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 454 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 455 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 456 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. 457 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 2: Daniel Kurtz Fhalen had to take over the iconic Foreign 458 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:33,640 Speaker 2: Affairs and everybody said, right, and he's hit the ball. 459 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 2: I mean, if you're up in Boston, it's at Homer 460 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 2: over the turnpike, onto the roof of the cask and flagon. 461 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 2: He is hit the ball out of the park. The 462 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:46,120 Speaker 2: latest issue is on fire. It sits on my thing 463 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 2: next all of his folks. It's like one or two 464 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 2: expensive Martinis to get the absolute best in international relations. 465 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 2: For example, on their website Foreign Affairs website, you can 466 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 2: read Robert Litheiser, who establish Trump Trade one. You could 467 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 2: read Gordon Hanson of Harvard definitive on trade policy and 468 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 2: right next to it, and they both appeared in the 469 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 2: show recently, Doug err when a Dartmouth was with us 470 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: the Incoherent Case for tariffs. Daniel kurtz Phalen joins us 471 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 2: now with his magnificent magazine. Daniel, you guys must be 472 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 2: going twenty four to seven as well. What to bone 473 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 2: In Irwin say about what we're witnessing in Washington. 474 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 7: Well, thanks, Tom. I always appreciate the. 475 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 3: Marketing. 476 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 7: We should probably be integrating that Martini line into some 477 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 7: of our marketing copies. So I'll suggest that our business side. 478 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 7: It's a wild time in international politics and American politics. 479 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 7: As as you all know extremely well. You know the 480 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 7: bone Irwin piece what we asked them to do. These 481 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 7: are two great economists. Doug Erwin probably one of the 482 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 7: greatest authorities on trade in the United States at this point, 483 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 7: we ask them to really look at the different arguments 484 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 7: and take them seriously. Different arguments for tariffs. Bob Leithheuser, 485 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 7: as you noted, has has made you know, sophisticated cases 486 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 7: for the use of tariffs and rethinking the trading system. 487 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 7: You saw the Biden administration frankly take up, take up 488 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,200 Speaker 7: some elements of that and run with it in ways 489 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 7: that would have seemed surprising not very long ago. But 490 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 7: what Bonerer would do is look at the different arguments 491 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 7: you can make. Trump has of course talked about tariffs 492 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 7: for a long time. He says it's the most beautiful 493 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 7: word in the English language. This has been one of 494 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 7: his his fixations for decades at this point. And what 495 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 7: they say is that, look, tariffs can work for various ends. 496 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 7: If you really want to foster domestic industry, if you 497 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 7: want to use it for leverage over other countries, as 498 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 7: we've seen in the last few weeks, all of that works. 499 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 7: If you want to raise some revenue with it, that works. 500 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,239 Speaker 7: The problem is that Trump thinks you can do all 501 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 7: of these things at the same time, and each one 502 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 7: of them in some ways undercuts the other. So if 503 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:56,919 Speaker 7: you want to use you know, to take the example 504 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,680 Speaker 7: that we've seen recently, tariffs for leverage to get other 505 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 7: other countries to change their behavior, whether that's you know, 506 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 7: Mexico sending troops to the border or you know, Canada 507 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 7: making at least sort of performative moves on fent and 508 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 7: although I'm not sure there's any real substance of that, 509 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 7: then you're going to end up taking the tariffs off 510 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 7: relatively quickly and they don't have the other effects. If 511 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 7: you leave them in place, despite that, then other countries 512 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 7: aren't going to see them as you know, reasonable incentives 513 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 7: to change behavior. So you could you kind of target 514 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 7: them here, but trying to have them do all these 515 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 7: things just becomes this incoherent mess with all the uncertainty 516 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 7: for business and everything else. 517 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 6: So, Dan, we think about the discussion in tariffs, which 518 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 6: is obviously ratchet up dramatically over the last several months. 519 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 6: Is globalism, which is a theme many of us grew 520 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 6: up with in business, Is globalism dead? 521 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:47,560 Speaker 7: Well, it's certainly dead in the United States. I think 522 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 7: what's really interesting right now is that you see much 523 00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 7: of the rest of the world continuing with something that looks, 524 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 7: you know, fairly familiar to those of US who would 525 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 7: have been looking at some of these dynamics a decade 526 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 7: or two ago. So you see, you know, Europeans, for example, 527 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 7: continuing to look at new kinds of trade relationships with 528 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 7: with each other and beyond. I think you'll see interesting 529 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 7: dynamics between between Europe and China. For example. Europe and 530 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 7: made a pretty hard turn against China and sees real 531 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 7: economic threat, but at a moment when that doesn't have 532 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 7: a lot of options, I think you'll see more more 533 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 7: activity between between Europe and the Chinese, or Europe and 534 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 7: parts of the global South, and certainly in Asia. They're 535 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 7: still very, very committed to something that looks a lot 536 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 7: like you know, old school globalism. So I think what 537 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 7: could happen is that it'll become, you know, in some 538 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 7: ways more fractured. You won't have this sense of a 539 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 7: true kind of global trading system, but you'll have lots 540 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 7: of regional systems, and then you'll have parts of the 541 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 7: world without the US that will continue to move forward. 542 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 7: I think the administration thinks that we can we have 543 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 7: the economic leverage, the economic might to avoid paying real 544 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 7: cost for that. I think we'll see in time, whether 545 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 7: you know, the US feels left out of something that 546 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 7: is bringing benefits and bringing power to other countries, especially 547 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 7: China and Dan. 548 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 6: Another hallmark of the Trump administration has been a greater 549 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 6: sense of nationalism and maybe at the expense of globalism, 550 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 6: and pulling back from some of the traditional relationships, whether 551 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 6: it be NATO or just our support and how we 552 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 6: view your much less our trading partners kinda in Mexico. 553 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 5: Do you believe that that would outlast. 554 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 6: The Trump administration in the sense that let's just focus 555 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 6: on ourselves. 556 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 5: Here, Well, you do see it. 557 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 7: It's not so much a turn inward but a real 558 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 7: interest in making deals with other strongmen. So you see 559 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 7: Trump much more interested in this kind of great power 560 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 7: diplomacy with Putin or with shi Jinpang or with you know, 561 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 7: Nearendromodi or other kind of strong leaders that he sees 562 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 7: is able to really really do business with him, really 563 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 7: make deals while he's beating up on allies and really 564 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 7: using leverage on allies. So that's I think a pretty 565 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 7: different vision of the global system than we've seen in. 566 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 3: A long time. 567 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 7: There are a couple great pieces in the issue that 568 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 7: Tom mentioned that that try to make sense of this. 569 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 2: Daniel I could go all about Foreign Affairs magazine, but 570 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 2: because of your expertise in China, I've got to ask folks, 571 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 2: the book is a China mission. It won every award 572 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 2: of twenty eighteen. Daniel kurtz Falen on George Marshall dragged 573 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 2: out a retirement General Marshall just shut up and go 574 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 2: to China and fix it for us, which, of course 575 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 2: George Marshall attempted to do. How do we repair a 576 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 2: China US relationship or is it forever on a bipartisan 577 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 2: basis fractured. 578 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 7: It's a great question, and it's been one of the 579 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,680 Speaker 7: really fascinating things to watch in the first couple months 580 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 7: of the Trump administration. Was really during Trump one that 581 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 7: you saw that bipartisan consensus, that hardline on China start 582 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 7: to form, and Trump was, of course one of the 583 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 7: big drivers of that. What we've seen in the past 584 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 7: couple of months is signals that he may take a 585 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 7: very very different approach at this time, and I think 586 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 7: the Chinese government is really kind of waiting to see 587 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 7: what that looks like, starting to develop options for what 588 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 7: a kind of a real deal might look like. I'm 589 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 7: skeptical that you could really get a kind of grand 590 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 7: bargain between the US and China that would wipe away 591 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,320 Speaker 7: all the really complicated issues, not just about trade and 592 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 7: technology and fentanyl, but also about Taiwan and the South 593 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 7: Chennessee and all the potential crises in the relationship. So 594 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 7: I think you saw in the last part of the 595 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 7: Biden administration an attempt to at least create some stability 596 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 7: in the relationship. It's not a return anything that we 597 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 7: would have seen a while ago, but to at least 598 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 7: prevent it from really going off the rails in ways 599 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 7: that it seemed like it might for portions of the 600 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 7: last few years. 601 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 2: I can't say now, folks about Foreign Affairs, A blistering 602 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 2: essay by Marianna Masakadu and where are we going with 603 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 2: the globalization? Paul Sweeney just spoke of Daniel Kurtz fail 604 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 2: and driving the ship for Foreign Affairs Magazine as our 605 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 2: lead editor. I just can't say enough again about the 606 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 2: need for subscription. 607 00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast in live each weekday 608 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 609 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 610 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 611 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 612 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 2: The newspaper's huge number of really interesting story last night, Lisa, 613 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 2: how'd you find three of them? What do you have here? 614 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 5: All right? So here we go. 615 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 10: Right, we were talking about filling out the bracket. 616 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 9: I did it. 617 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 10: I have Michigan winning. 618 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 4: Okay. 619 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 5: David Western got to you because I see what happened, and. 620 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 4: He said, I heard you talking about it. 621 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 10: You have to go with Michigan. 622 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,400 Speaker 5: It's not a bad call. It's not a bad call. 623 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:39,040 Speaker 4: Okay. 624 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 10: So if I win, I will take David weston after 625 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 10: breakfast anyway, So. 626 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 4: We have some fun with it, right. 627 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 10: But the Wall Street Journal has this story out today. Yeah, 628 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 10: over the past two seasons, at least seven Division one 629 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 10: teams have been involved in unusual betting activity. So it's 630 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 10: kind of like this other side. So it says some 631 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 10: of the wagers involved people that are connected to that 632 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 10: actual ongoing investing gation into that gambling ring. Remember NBA's 633 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 10: Johntay Porter, right, he got in. 634 00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 8: A lot of trouble for that. 635 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 10: So that investigators started with this look into Temple University 636 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,320 Speaker 10: that started last month and it's really spread into a 637 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 10: lot of these other teams. But what it gets into 638 00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 10: is that the real problem behind it too are prop 639 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 10: bets because it allows better storager on the individual players performance. 640 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 4: And so that's what sparked the reason. 641 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 2: In the middle of the game, you can look at 642 00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,800 Speaker 2: somebody and bet on your three point ability. 643 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 6: Yep, it's yeah, it's just amazing. And so I don't 644 00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 6: know how you police it. I can't imagine even thinking 645 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,960 Speaker 6: about policing that kind of stuff. But that's where we 646 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 6: are because it's right on your phone, Tom, and kids 647 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 6: are doing it too. 648 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 5: I've told you the story. 649 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 6: I over heard a bunch of you know, high school 650 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 6: boys talking about betting in a not just betting like 651 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 6: at a basic level, but like serious detailed strategies for betting. 652 00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 5: I'm like, where do they learn. 653 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,919 Speaker 10: To puts pressure on the player too? Because the article 654 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 10: is saying how the coaches are starting to hear from 655 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 10: their players, like even like some of their family members 656 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,840 Speaker 10: are pressuring them like hey, maybe miss a couple shots 657 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 10: or maybe do this. 658 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,240 Speaker 5: This is frightening and yes, right, yes. 659 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 2: Through march Man. 660 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 10: Next, Okay, Tom, I have a new choice for you 661 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 10: on your next trip to Paris. Okay, Nice Air France 662 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 10: is launching a new first class Okay, they're trying to 663 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,200 Speaker 10: target those, you know, wealthy tourists because the declining business customers. Right, 664 00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 10: So these are customers who are willing to pay about 665 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 10: twelve thousand dollars for a flight from Paris to New 666 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 10: York trip. Okay, So it's investing big time, more than 667 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 10: a billion dollars a year for the next five years 668 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 10: for these suites. They're known as La Premiere Okay, fancy champagne, 669 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,760 Speaker 10: caviare star chefs. It's a suite, it has more space. 670 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 10: That's what tom six and a half feet long. Yep, Okay, 671 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 10: you get the fancy sleep wear, the skincare produs. Absolutely, 672 00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,360 Speaker 10: you have to flight start this spring, so now you 673 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 10: can start book for the next trip. 674 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 4: Okay. 675 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:05,279 Speaker 2: And what's interesting about this and full disclosure, folks, I 676 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 2: do fly in France. I love them to death. But 677 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,240 Speaker 2: but what's interesting about this is it's not business travel. 678 00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 2: This is people out there and my father used to 679 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 2: call it cattle car because we're not we're not taking 680 00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:26,040 Speaker 2: cattle car. And people will sacrifice to go business class, 681 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:30,440 Speaker 2: which is not twelve thousand europes. I mean, it's shocked. 682 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,880 Speaker 2: I don't know how they do it. It's like thirty 683 00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:38,640 Speaker 2: three hundred dollars round trip JFK to CDG business class 684 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,200 Speaker 2: and that's a lot of money. I can I'm not 685 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 2: downplaying it, but. 686 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:42,840 Speaker 5: It's worth it. 687 00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,560 Speaker 6: But you know, especially it's a big fellow like Tomky. No, 688 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 6: I'm not going in some economy seek you know, missus. 689 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 2: Kean and missus Kean and the kid's flying the back. No, 690 00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 2: I don't, at least I think thing. 691 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:00,440 Speaker 3: Thank you for that. 692 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 693 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 694 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,640 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 695 00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:17,759 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 696 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 697 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.