WEBVTT - Collapse Ft. Andrew 0:00:02.120 --> 0:00:04.680 Zone Media. 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:07.680 Hello, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, and good night. 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.920 I'm Adressage and I run the YouTube channel Andrewism. But 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:14.960 this is not Andrewism. This is it could happen here 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:22.919 today with Garrison yet again, and we are tackling really 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:27.840 the genesis of this podcast everyone's favorite subject, collapse. 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:32.800 Oh wow, yeah, you know, just a. 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:38.559 Light topic for your morning or commute. I mean, if 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:42.000 it's twenty twenty four and you don't know what collapse 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:44.280 is allowed me to illuminate. 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.560 Also, why are you listening to this podcast? It is 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:49.480 ostensibly about collapse. 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:55.440 Indeed, in essence, collapse is the significant loss of an 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:58.840 established level of complexity towards a much simpler state. It 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:02.279 can occur differently with him areas, orderly or chaotically, and 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.479 be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:09.720 extinction or a singular global event, although the longer the 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:13.520 duration the mod resembles a decline instead of a collapse. 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.360 So collapse is really a lot of things happen all 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.440 of once. People typically side. You know, you're talking about 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:24.039 the climate, talking about resources and the decline of resources, 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:30.000 talking about vast extinction, talking about societal unrest and break 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:35.640 down and the inequality and truly pick your poison. Rather, 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.639 we're talking about, you know, the f increase in global 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:43.000 energy demands, to graddingly slow transition to renewables, the destabilization 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.760 of our food and water systems. There's no one cause, 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:53.440 but several compounding pressures, as Pablo Serlophine and Raphael Steven's 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:57.720 aptly summarize. To maintain itself and avoid financial disorder and 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:01.240 social unrest, I'll industr your cap with civilization is forced 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:04.360 to accelerate, to become more complex and to consume ever 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:08.400 more energy. Its dazline expansion has been nurtured by the 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:12.840 exceptional availability though this will not last long of fossil 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.320 fuels that are very energy efficient, coupled with their growth 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:20.120 economy and highly unstable levels of debt. But the growth 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:24.359 of our industrial civilization today, constrained by geophysical economic limits, 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:28.160 has reached a phase of decreasing returns. Technology, which has 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.600 long sail to push these limits back, is less and 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:34.040 less able to ensure this acceleration, and locks in this 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:39.520 unsustainable trajectory by preventing the development of new alternatives. Sounds familiar. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:44.040 At the same time, the sciences of complexity, discovering that 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:49.360 beyond certain thresholds, complex systems, including economies and ecosystems, suddenly 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.520 switched to new and unpredictable states of equilibrium and may 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.520 even collapse. We are more and more aware that we 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:59.000 have crossed certain boundaries that guarantee the stability of our 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:03.040 living conditions as a society and as a species. The 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:06.040 global climate system and many of the planet's ecosystems and 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:09.400 major biochemical cycles have left the zone of stability that 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:12.760 people familiar with herald in a time of sudden, large 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:17.440 scale disruptions which internally stabilized industrial societies, the rest of 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.040 humankind and even other species. 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.240 Yes, I agree. 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.800 In terms of the hows of collapse, you know, it 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:30.880 might be slow, or it might be quick, It might 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.640 be happening now already, or maybe just really kicking off 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:37.280 seriously in their future. Today we'll really be talking about 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:41.760 the sort of different ways of conceptualizing collapse, different frame 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:47.320 devices we can use, and addressing the variety of responses 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:51.200 that people have to collapse in a future episode I 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:55.680 want to take a look at. I suppose a more 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:01.320 this could be like the pessimistic episode in a sense 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:04.640 and the next one will be a bit more. You know, 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:07.360 how not to spiral into despair? 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:11.360 So yeah, how do I have a good understanding of 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:14.840 the reality of our crumbling systems, but not just be 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:17.479 a doomer who stays inside and scrolls all the time. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:18.520 It is just depressed. 0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:22.200 Well, but thankfully you have more options than just being 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:23.760 a duma. And we're going to get into all of 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:27.279 those responses very soon. There are quite a few interesting ones. 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:28.040 Alrighty. 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:30.479 First of all, we need to talk about some different 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:35.520 ways of conceptualizing collapse. For example, we have Dmitry Orlovs 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:39.080 five stages, which is like a roller coaster of chaos, 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:42.919 which each stage more intense than the last. First, we 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:48.440 have stage one financial collapse. Everyone losing faith in business 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:53.080 as usual, financial institutions going belly up, savings vanish, financial 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:56.360 free fall, say goodbye to your savings, account, loans, pensions, 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:00.159 basically what went down in Argentina. Back into the and 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.279 one sounds familiar. 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.960 Yes, yes, yes, Next. 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.440 We have commercial collapse. Now it's not just about money, 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:13.760 it's about losing faith in the market shall provide commodities 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:16.760 and up being hoarded. Shopping centers are closing for business 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:21.440 and we might even bring back barter, and then boom, 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:26.760 we have the next stage, political collapse. Trust in the 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:30.120 government will take care of you crumbles. Governments try to 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.719 maintain oiler with curfews and martial law, but local corruption 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:38.520 takes over services, the roads un maintained, the rubbish piling 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:43.440 up all of actually makes a really bold claim here, 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:47.240 and that is that the US might be on the 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:51.839 track of these like stages. Like I know, I know, 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.680 that sounds like a really like a radical claim to make. 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:59.000 I feel like everyone listening to this has a decent 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.960 understanding that, like, these things aren't just switches that are 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:06.200 either on or off. This is like a sliding scale, 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:11.200 and the US is a decent ways on this scale already. 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:15.120 I mean, that's that's what the first five episodes of 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:17.880 the second season of this show was really all about, 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:21.120 specifically in terms of the climate and how it's not 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:24.800 like everything all falls apart at once. It's that these 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.800 systems that we've grown to rely on will slowly crumble 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:31.839 away until they've become basically nothing, or they've just become 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:34.720 like corporate puppets, or they've just become like like they're 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.440 not actually real anymore in any kind of impactful way. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:39.200 And I mean we saw a little bit of this 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:43.120 during COVID. How many systems that we relied on just 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:47.760 weren't really around anymore, or weren't we're not actually reliable. 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:51.200 And you see this whenever, like whenever there's a massive 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:53.840 amount of wildfires that takes over a whole region and 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:57.960 it displaces hundreds of thousands of people. Usually the response 0:06:58.000 --> 0:06:59.960 to that is not the government's going to come in 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.960 and say everybody, it's a whole bunch of really poor 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.000 anarchists set up a series of tents to give people 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:10.200 food and to get people organized, to find places to sleep, 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:14.080 and like that's the actual response to these crumbling institutions. 0:07:14.480 --> 0:07:17.840 It's not just like you know, fallout New Vegas, We're 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:22.120 living in the apocalypse immediately. It's a lot more fuzzy. 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:28.720 Yeah. Yeah, And in a sense, I kind of get 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:32.640 people who wish it was a bit more straightforward. And sure, 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.840 you know, because if it's like if it was like 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:38.280 a major event, right like if it was an alien 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.760 invasion that just happened, I think it's a lot easier 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.720 for people to conceptionize something like that and respond to it. 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.520 And I just mobilize, all your efforts and all your 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:52.280 focus is on solved in this issue, because it's right 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:55.960 in front of your face. We're talking about like geological 0:07:56.080 --> 0:08:01.720 time skills and multiple decades of you know, slowly break down, 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:05.720 and you know, I have all these election cycles, and 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:09.960 you have all these tipping points the scientists are telling 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:14.320 you about, and then you know, someday eventually it's raining 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.200 during the dry season and dry during the rainy season, 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:26.680 and there's no snow in January, and all that jazz onward. 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.880 The social collapse. This is where, according to all of 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:34.280 faith in your people will take care of you, disintegrate, 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:38.960 civil wars brew the population becomes a thing, clans take 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:44.760 over like a post apocalyptic drama unfolded. And then and 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:48.240 then the grand finale is cultural collapse, which is a 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.360 loss of faith in the goodness of humanity. And as 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:55.120 a result of that loss of faith, kindness, generosity, empathy 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:59.120 all falls out the window. I completely disagree I think 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:03.760 with loves solution here. I think that these types of 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:07.240 crisis kind often bring out the best in people. Of course, 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:09.080 we also do see the worst in people. But I 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:13.280 don't think it'll ever reach a point where the bad 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:19.320 of people's behavior so vastly outweighs the good to the 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:22.160 point where people just completely lose faith in our capacity 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.560 for mutual aid and that kind of thing. There is, 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.000 of course, a bonus stage that all are throughs in, 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:35.000 which is ecological collapse, where reboot in society in an 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:38.160 exhausted environment. It's like good luck with that, you know, 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:41.480 it's very difficult to do. It becomes a sort of 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.640 a well that we end up trapped in. So that's 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.360 one way of understanding collapse. And there's also C. A. S. 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:53.120 Halling's four phase model of ecological change, and according to him, 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:56.760 all systems go through cycles of four faces. A phase 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.280 of growth where the system accumulates matter and energy, phase 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.240 of conservation where the system becomes more and more interconnected, 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:07.200 rigid and therefore vulnerable. A phase of collapse or loosening, 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:10.319 and then a phase of rapid reorganization lead into another 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:14.720 phase of growth in often very different conditions. This is 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:20.480 more of a I suppose optimistic I mean I read 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:24.440 it as kind of optimistic because it recognizes that, you know, 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.000 something like things break down and that's it. Like even 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:31.160 in death, there's like a life, and there's like a rebooth, 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.040 and then there's of course the conditions that rebooth will 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:37.600 be different. But it's not like things completely come to 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:44.920 an end. It's just that the conditions that growth and 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:51.000 healing might be kickstarted with would be very different from 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.800 the ones that with the conditions that were there originally. 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:58.400 Another author's views on the subject, a guy named John 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:03.080 Michael Greer One said that quote. The difference between my 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.720 view and that of many others in the collapse field, 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:07.680 it's a lot of them assume that the first wave 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:10.560 of crisis will be followed by total collapse, and I 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.000 argue that it'll be followed by muddying through and partial recovery, 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.600 then by renewed crisis and so on. Thus, I don't 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:19.640 think it's actually that useful to have a single metric 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:22.840 for what counters collapse, because collapse is a process, not 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.720 an event. The collapse of industrial civilization has been underway 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:28.000 for quite some time now and will still be a 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.960 going concern for longer than any of us will be alive. 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.800 And then there's David Krowitz's sort of choose your own 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:39.760 adventure style collapse, where we have sort of three options 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:44.120 that we could go down there's one of linear decline, 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.520 there's one of oscillating decline, and there's one of systemic collapse. 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:53.120 First step, we have linear decline, which is optimistic in 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:57.920 a sense. It's assuming everything will respond proportionally to its causes. So, 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.360 for instance, if oil consumption goes down, GDP follows suit. 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:06.040 It's a very gradual and controlled decline, which gives us 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:10.000 time to transition to renewable energy and to change our ways. 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:15.080 It's kind of a dream scenario for some dee growth enthusiasts, 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.720 So some of those who champion a transition to a 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.320 greener future, we kind of want it to be a 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.080 slow collapse, not a rapid collapse, because it gives us 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:28.719 time to respond and adjust accordingly. Of course, the other 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:32.240 side of that, the catch is that when it is 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:37.199 that slow, it also sort of gives an excuse for inaction, 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:42.000 an excuse for delay and putting off and procrastinates in 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:45.920 on the changes that are necessary. A more realistic scenario, 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:52.640 according to to Coross, oscillating decline, where you have economic 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:56.480 activity bounce in between peaks of recovery and recession, but 0:12:56.480 --> 0:13:02.319 with an overall downward trend. It's almost like an oil 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.600 priced roller coaster where the higher prices lead to recession, 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.840 then a dipping prices sparks bit of growth. Both each 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.960 cycle the system loses a bit more of its mojo 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.160 for lack of a better word, The debts the pile up, 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.960 the investment possibilities dwindle, and it's kind of like the 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:23.400 catabolic collapse idea that John Michael Career came up with. 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:26.640 It's not too fast and so innocence. It still gives 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:31.880 society some room to adapt. And the last model that 0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:36.160 Chris has is the systemic collapse model, which is our 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:40.160 civilization as a super complex system with all these intertwined 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.720 feedback loops and so by crossing these invisible change over 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.880 points and deal with small disruptions can end up leading 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.720 to unpredictable changes. It's like a roller coaster without a 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.400 clear track, nonlinear, pumulative and potentially brutal. You know, it's 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:59.480 like no kind of safety approval was passed on this 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:03.880 roller coast to whatsoever, a death trap and there's no 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:09.920 telling where the cart will vy. Of course, really the 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.920 how of collapse depends on who you ask, But with 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:15.800 all these models, they do seem to be a couple 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:21.040 of clear points best articulated again by Savine and Stevens. One, 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.560 the physical growth of our societies will come to a 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:27.320 halt in the near future. Two we have irreversibly damaged 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.680 the entire system, at least on the geological scale of 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:34.880 human beings. Three we are moving towards a very unstable, 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:38.360 non linear future where major disruptions will be the norm. 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:43.360 And four we're now potentially subject to global systemic collapses. 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:48.920 Prospects look bleak to me. They look extra bleak when 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.320 you consider that some people are still stuck on the 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.680 is climate change real ha ha ha global warming and 0:14:55.760 --> 0:15:00.320 yet it's cold ha ha ha level of discourse. But 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:02.840 for those who are made away of the issues, I've 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:17.840 noticed people adopt a range of responses. I think one 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:24.720 of the first responses that I see to collapse is slumber. Right. 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.760 They catch a whiff of what's going on and decide 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:32.200 to just turn over and go back to sleep. To 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:38.360 purposefully embrace ignorance, disregard new information, and shun any understanding 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.680 of what's going on. Perhaps you know their garden, their 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:47.160 fragile sanity, which is understandable, but people sleep in or 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:53.200 we need to face these issues is a disaster waiting 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.640 to happen. These issues are not going anywhere, and we 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.720 really need people to have the courage and the boldness 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.320 to face them seat of turn and over and going 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.800 back to sleep. Similarly to that response, we have to 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:09.560 denial response, where people face with this reality, reject it 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:13.640 consciously and construct their own or they search for information 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.160 that comforts them rather than exposes them to the truth. 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.600 They construct a media bubble that shields them, or a 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.200 social circle that could protect them and reaffirm their core beliefs. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.520 Everyone is capable of denying reality, but it's become quite 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:29.160 prevalent in the age of technology, where we can easily 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:34.520 shut out any truths that make us uncomfortable. And this apathy, 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.520 you know, like slumber and denial. People respond with apathy 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:41.320 to protect themselves in some way. After all, if nothing 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.000 really matters, there's no need to try, no need to think, 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:49.000 no need to bother Jesus, just disconnect as humans. I 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.160 think we have a really tough time responding to non 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.680 immediate threats. It's been said, as I said earlier, that 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.640 no climate change isn't happening too quick, it's happening too slowly. 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:03.400 It's not ob us enough. Because it's not obviously enough, 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.680 it's very easy for this next response to be made manifest, 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.399 and it's preoccupation. Of course, this is more of a 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.560 fault of the system. But people these days are all busy. 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.800 You know that everyone can afford to invest and explore 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.760 and understand the world's problems, even if the threat is 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:22.760 so existential that their office busy work or ratail servitude 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.359 would ultimately amount to nothing. But I'm not talking about 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:28.800 those people when I talk about preoccupation. I'm talking about 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:30.800 the people who respond to the issues of the world 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:35.200 by purposefully distracting themselves with busy work, constructing a convenient 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:37.800 excuse to not challenge the structures that they are under 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:41.880 or maintained, like running away for the predicaments of collapse. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.119 But the predicaments of collapse hatches up to all of 0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:50.200 us sooner or later. And on the flip side of 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:52.440 the people who busy themselves with busy work are the 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:56.040 people who dive into mind less consumeris are which is 0:17:56.280 --> 0:18:00.399 coupled with apathy to some extent. If nothing matters, everything's 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:05.240 falling apart, you might as well just indulge, consume, distract 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.320 yourself with games, music, party and drugs and drinking. It's 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:12.399 like slumber, except you're aware of the reality and just 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:16.480 plug in your ears to just dance. But at least 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:22.600 for those that plug their ears, they don't face what 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:28.879 I've called overwhelment. Some people respond by trying to wrap 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.439 their minds around the depth and complexity of collapse to 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.600 the point of obsession and just kind of end up 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:40.240 losing their minds altogether. I don't think there is any 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:44.399 human mind that can completely consume and comprehend every minute 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.959 problem we face. I think that's why we are social species, 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:53.399 because we can kind of distribute that understanding of all 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.760 the various problems so that no one person has to 0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:01.399 handle all of it. We really are going to need 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:06.760 to come together to understand collapse, because as individuals, to 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.960 deal with something to a complex, abstract, far flung and frightening, 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:17.159 it's it's frankly, subjecting yourself to that is almost a 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:22.720 form of self torture or self flagellation. And what we 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.080 need is the opposite pity of people building each other 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:29.080 up and healing our communities and coming together so we 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:35.560 could solve this crisis. Of course, there is such a 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:40.679 thing as being too caught up in that sort of 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:46.479 hope and a trap that a lot of people fall 0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:51.240 naturally into because in a sense we are biologically predisposed 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:55.280 towards optimism. We tend to hold on to hope in 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:59.520 some future outcome they'll just work out, you know. And 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.120 it's sort of a blind hope because it can't adjust 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.879 to the ever shift in reality. It strips us of 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.159 our ability to see clearly and to take realistic and 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:13.680 necessary action. We give up our agency and leave things 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.399 in the hands of the leaders and the experts. We 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.760 stay passive. We waste time, precious time that we spent 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.879 on real harm reduction, just going with the flow. We 0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:26.920 prevent the necessary conversations with the blind hope when we 0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:29.520 fixate so much and whether we can fix it or 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.240 how we can fix it, without considering what we need 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:36.440 to do. If we can't fix it, you know what happens? 0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:42.840 Then blind hope manifests in a few different forms. But 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:46.879 I think whatever format comes into it ultimately and ultimately 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.760 and inevitably leads to disappointment. Waiting forever for a future 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.840 that won't come, that exists solely in one's mind, irrespective 0:20:54.960 --> 0:21:01.240 of reality. It's quite frankly a form of denial. It 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:03.240 takes a bit of a journey to move towards a 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:09.440 greater level of emotional maturity, to handle the tough conversations 0:21:09.480 --> 0:21:13.439 and let go of the false hopes, like the idea 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:16.159 that will somehow reverse all the damage our plant has 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:20.320 been dealt with scot free. But once we have done that, 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:24.439 and once we have strengthened or resolve and strengthen our 0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:28.040 ability to process and to engage with the reality of 0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:33.600 what's happening, we can take action with knowledge that no, 0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:36.160 our leader is not going to do anything substantially enough, 0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:40.320 and no, this moves far beyond reform. It really is 0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:44.760 a hard pill to swallow, but if you can take it, 0:21:44.760 --> 0:21:49.280 you'll be better off to resist. We really don't need 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.720 blind hope and resistance. I think hope is important. I'm 0:21:54.720 --> 0:22:02.200 distinguishing it from hope blind hope. However, distraction and sort 0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.640 of connected to the blind hope conversation are the people 0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:11.719 who respond to this crisis with the obsession with individual change, 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:15.480 people who believe with a few tweaks here and there 0:22:15.560 --> 0:22:18.800 that we can continue or perpetual growth. We just have 0:22:18.880 --> 0:22:22.320 to switch to veganism or recycle or cockpool every once 0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:27.080 in a while, and that that individual level action on 0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:32.640 a large enough scale would resolve the crisis. They place 0:22:32.680 --> 0:22:36.199 a lot of stock and blame in individuals entirely, and 0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:42.399 they don't engage with the wider structures of society. A 0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:46.520 lot of liberals, of course, fall into this camp. And 0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:52.399 speaking of liberals, we see a very pernicious trend of 0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:57.520 progress worship as another response to collapse. The author Dennis 0:22:57.560 --> 0:23:00.359 Meadows actually points out a curious trend over the past 0:23:00.359 --> 0:23:04.480 four decades. There's a constant shift in justifying why we 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.800 shouldn't change our behavior. Back in the seventies, critics were saying, 0:23:09.359 --> 0:23:11.800 no limits. You know, anyone who thinks they're limits, they 0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:15.159 just don't get it. The eighties they're saying, oh, actually 0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:17.879 there are limits, but they are very far away. We 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:20.600 have nothing to worry about, nothing to lose sleep over. 0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:25.560 And then inta nineties, the limits are no longer at are, 0:23:25.560 --> 0:23:28.880 no longer is distant. And then the supporters of growth 0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:32.200 they chiming with, oh, well, you know the limits are close, 0:23:32.320 --> 0:23:34.840 but no worries. You know, the markets and technology will 0:23:34.880 --> 0:23:37.800 swoop in and fix everything. And then you reach into 0:23:37.840 --> 0:23:40.679 two thousands and it becomes clear that the tech and 0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:44.119 the markets might not cut it, and then the narrative 0:23:44.160 --> 0:23:47.560 spins again. Regardless of whether not the markets or tech 0:23:47.600 --> 0:23:49.520 and cut it, we still need to push for growth 0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:51.879 because that's the goal and ticket to the resources we 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:55.640 need to tackle our of problems. It's basically a game 0:23:55.680 --> 0:24:02.520 of justification hopscotch. It's almost a cult of progress that 0:24:02.560 --> 0:24:05.040 any and all growth is good. That don't matter the 0:24:05.080 --> 0:24:09.320 consequences of on our finite earth. We can just expand 0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:13.560 and expand eternally. A lot of the responses I get 0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:16.639 to my discussions of the growth or post growth or whatever, 0:24:17.240 --> 0:24:19.440 it's like, yeah, but you can't do that because then 0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:23.920 the GP you wouldn't grow and wouldn't elevate people's sounds 0:24:23.920 --> 0:24:27.920 of living. And you know, it's not fair that global. 0:24:28.400 --> 0:24:30.720 Wait Andrew, are you a Malthusian? 0:24:35.640 --> 0:24:37.960 Nothing of the sort, Nothing of the sort. But I 0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:41.160 think that we should not be fallen into this shop 0:24:41.200 --> 0:24:44.280 of being like, oh, well, you know, it's not fair 0:24:44.320 --> 0:24:46.480 that these rich countries they get to reach that level 0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:48.480 of development, and then we have to like and then 0:24:48.520 --> 0:24:50.760 what we're going to step in and stop other countries 0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.320 from doing so when it's not that I mean, I'm 0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:56.280 speaking from a not rich country. What I'm saying is 0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:58.520 that the what I say to the equal is that 0:24:58.760 --> 0:25:01.680 the path of development of these rich countries took it's 0:25:01.680 --> 0:25:05.399 not sustainable. It is literally dooming us all. Yes, the 0:25:05.560 --> 0:25:10.800 entire population cannot strive for the level of consumption that 0:25:10.920 --> 0:25:15.320 Americans strive for. Do I think the development days take place, absolutely, 0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:18.760 but not on the trajectory, not following in the footsteps 0:25:18.800 --> 0:25:26.200 of these rich countries, this Global North and it's legacy 0:25:26.560 --> 0:25:32.440 of decimating the world. You know, places like India, place 0:25:32.480 --> 0:25:36.840 like the Caribbean, places in Africa. You know, we do 0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:42.439 need to, you know, improve housing, and improve access to water, 0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:48.520 and improve access to education, all these different things. But 0:25:50.400 --> 0:25:59.560 chasing after this sort of careless economic growth narrative and 0:26:01.040 --> 0:26:04.840 path is just going to accelerate all of our destruction. 0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:09.159 I agree with the need for reparations from global not 0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:12.399 to Global South, that will allow us to reach the 0:26:12.520 --> 0:26:18.359 level of a they could, to reach the quality of 0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:23.159 life that I think every human should have access to. 0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.880 But I don't think that that is the same thing 0:26:26.920 --> 0:26:31.920 as saying that, oh, well, you know, every country should 0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:37.880