WEBVTT - Veda Partner's Henrietta Treyz Talks Iran War Ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>But first, a briefing on your Washington Henrietta Trees where

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<v Speaker 2>Anna joins us from VEDA Partners. This morning, Henrietta, we

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<v Speaker 2>could do a two hour conversation. I got about eight

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<v Speaker 2>minutes here is well, how's a Secretary of Defense doing

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<v Speaker 2>inside the Beltway?

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<v Speaker 1>There are reasons for Hegsith to be very concerned. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the biggest things I'm going to be watching when

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate gets back into session on Monday night is

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<v Speaker 1>whether Republican leadership feels compelled to call Hegxith or other

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<v Speaker 1>Defense Department officials to the Senate for hearings. There are

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<v Speaker 1>three Republican senators who got obviously very perturbed by the

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<v Speaker 1>President's commentary his sort of end of civilization talk over

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of days. That would be Senator John Curtis,

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<v Speaker 1>a Republican from Utah, Lisa Murkowski, and the tried and

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<v Speaker 1>true efforts of Rand Paul. But what I think really

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<v Speaker 1>stands out we should be watching for is whether Hegsith

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<v Speaker 1>gets called up to brief the committees in public. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a real risk.

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<v Speaker 2>I look at the news slow, Henrietta and maybe an

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<v Speaker 2>open question.

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<v Speaker 1>Her.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul's got like he's got a list over here. He's

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<v Speaker 2>like Scarlett fut Scarlett taught you this. I've got eight

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<v Speaker 2>questions lined up, Henrietta, an open question. What is your

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<v Speaker 2>question to the Trump administration and to the president this morning?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, my question is, you had seven more days

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<v Speaker 1>to wage this war? Why did you box yourself in

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<v Speaker 1>the strait is closed? The President's talking about a joint venture,

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<v Speaker 1>which seems preposterous and would raise taxes on gas globally

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<v Speaker 1>if ultimately it comes true. He had all the way

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<v Speaker 1>until at least midway through next week to continue perpetuating

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<v Speaker 1>the war. I want to know why there was an

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<v Speaker 1>early drawdown. He talked himself into this massive escalation after

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<v Speaker 1>for eight hours, and it was totally unnecessary politically, has

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<v Speaker 1>all the way until, you know, at a minimum Wednesday

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<v Speaker 1>of next week, before war Powers resolution would come up,

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<v Speaker 1>before any kind of political leache would be put on him.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think they had until five dollars gasoline. So

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<v Speaker 1>he stopped this pretty quickly. He didn't need to. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's really interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>So what brings us to that brings us obviously to

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<v Speaker 3>this ceaspire or Henrietta, what do you make of it?

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<v Speaker 3>What's the feeling in Washington, DC? About this seaspire and

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<v Speaker 3>maybe where we go from here.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really strongly suggestive of the very negative numbers that

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans are seeing in polls nationwide. I feel like I've

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<v Speaker 1>said this ever since the November elections, but we saw

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<v Speaker 1>swingings of fifteen to thirty points across Georgia and Wisconsin

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<v Speaker 1>last night. There's a fifty six percent swing in the

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<v Speaker 1>Latino vote outside of Milwaukee. This is like eighteen year

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<v Speaker 1>high numbers. So the Republicans are plainly seeing this. They're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing gas hit four dollars and sixteen cents. If my

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<v Speaker 1>analysis is off, it's really that they didn't have until

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<v Speaker 1>five dollars. It's still four dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>So what are next? When Congress does come back, will

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<v Speaker 3>they weigh in it all here? Because they really have

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<v Speaker 3>been silent for the last six weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that they will, and I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>president's wind down on the war before he needed to

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<v Speaker 1>suggest that the backlash amongst Republicans and amongst American voters

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<v Speaker 1>is too extreme, especially from independent voters, for it to perpetuate. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, accepting this ceasefire. I think it's the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the window. The number one question for investors right

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<v Speaker 1>now is with will this hold? This was the last

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<v Speaker 1>best free reign that he had to wage the war

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<v Speaker 1>and he called it off. So I think that's really telling.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, this is timestamp seven thirty eighth this morning. It's

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<v Speaker 2>about fifty minutes ago. This is Julian Lee outstanding out

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<v Speaker 2>of London with Julia prem as well. They have literally

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<v Speaker 2>a horror Mouz tracker available on the Bloomberg terminal. The

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<v Speaker 2>headline is simple, no pickup in traffic yet on us

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<v Speaker 2>around ceasefire fire. So, Henrietta, I think it's a fourteen

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<v Speaker 2>day season fire. Where are we day seven, day eight,

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<v Speaker 2>day nine? What is the political sweat that we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to face into next week?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think they've got to be hoping that

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<v Speaker 1>the eight hundred tanker backlog is starting to clear up

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. You know, it's a twenty one mile straight,

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<v Speaker 1>but you can't push eight hundred tankers through a twenty

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<v Speaker 1>one mile straight all that quickly. So I think they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to really be following gas prices most closely. I

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<v Speaker 1>would follow whether the Senate Budget and House budget committees

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<v Speaker 1>move forward with a reconciliation instructure, or whether they're like, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't need to move in this dramatic fashion. How

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<v Speaker 1>serious those are? Whether we get a war powers resolution

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<v Speaker 1>pass in the House and Senate. I think the President

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be able to stave off passage in

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<v Speaker 1>the Senate. But it's dicey.

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<v Speaker 2>And one more question, because Paul's looking at me like Tom,

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<v Speaker 2>put a cork in your mouth, Hendrianta, As simple as

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<v Speaker 2>I can, did Johnson and Thune have control of the troops.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they should be okay for right now. I

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<v Speaker 1>really do the President wound down the war far enough

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<v Speaker 1>in advance that they can sell some good news. Like

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<v Speaker 1>I said, I think they can get away with having

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<v Speaker 1>a public hearing about the military escalation and the war

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<v Speaker 1>generally to keep them behind them on the war powers resolution.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're okay for now.

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<v Speaker 3>Is there a sense that Republicans or Democrats may request

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<v Speaker 3>intelligence briefings that are not private, that maybe the public

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<v Speaker 3>can learn some things here as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, no question. I would say Senator Galleo is really

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<v Speaker 1>leading the charge on that. He's been stressing that these

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<v Speaker 1>private you know, behind closed doors briefings are a not

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<v Speaker 1>very informative and b need to be out in public,

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<v Speaker 1>so Democrats are absolutely going to press for that, no question.

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<v Speaker 2>Hender Edda, we got to run. Thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 2>day in and day out for your perspective with Veda

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<v Speaker 2>Partners