1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well. As Tom Keane 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: would say, this is the discussion of the morning. In 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: his merger Monday, A T T spinning off its media 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: assets and discovery, you're gonna merge with those, creating a 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: pretty pretty big media company. Uh. Fortunately, we have two 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: of the absolute top analysts on Wall Street to chat 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: about this, and fortunate for us, they work at the 13 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: same firm, so it's easy to get them on together, 14 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: Michael Nathanson and Craig Moffat. They are founding partners at 15 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: Moffatt Nathanson. Craig, let me start with you, boy, what 16 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: does this say about A T and T strategy over 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: the last several years to transform itself into I guess 18 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: a media company. It's a big about face, isn't it? Boy? 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: It sure is. Um. This is a thank you for 20 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: having us on this is this is a complete capitulation strategically. Um. 21 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: But but in some ways you have to give them 22 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: some credit. It is rare that a management team is 23 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: willing to admit so openly that they made a mistake 24 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: and they've got to retrench. Usually, you you require a 25 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 1: changeover in the management team. And while it was Randall 26 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 1: Stevenson that that was at the helm when these deals 27 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: were made, John Stanky was very much in the co 28 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: pilot seat and advocated for both of these deals, and 29 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: so to see him changing his mind, it's an enormous 30 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: loss of value for a T and T shareholders, to 31 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: the tune of more than a hundred billion dollars low. Um. 32 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: But but I guess you do have to give them 33 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: some credit for at least acknowledging they made a mistake 34 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: in reversing. So how are I mean, that's amazing. Let's 35 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: just go through those deals if we could. Michael, can 36 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: you can you sound it up for us? What did 37 00:01:55,560 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: Stanky and Stevenson by and um, what are they able 38 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 1: to salvage? Now? Well, well, they bought and thanks for 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: having us on and they bought was Turner Cable Networks 40 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 1: and Craig and I would always say to you the 41 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: businesses at Turner with TVs and t N T, well, 42 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: the well the most at risks from Netflix, right, those 43 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: are entertainment networks, a lot of repeat content that was 44 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 1: easily replaced by on demand spot. So Turner got a 45 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: lot worse more quickly. And then HBO. You know, I 46 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: don't blame them on HBO. They've done the right thing, 47 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: but HBO really never aggressively expanded into the engine non 48 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: US markets. So the guys that A T T had 49 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: to basically reinvestigate in HBO change the way the company 50 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: went to market. UM. So to me, it really comes 51 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: down to the basic cable bundle and also time warners. Really, 52 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: I would say starving of HBO to get the to 53 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: get the asset in the competitive position. And now that's 54 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: what they're doing, but it's gonna be expensive, by the way, 55 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 1: I was including Direct TV and that as well. Exactly 56 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: they bought direct TV for sixty seven billion dollars two 57 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: years earlier, UM, and they just sold that for about 58 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: fifteen or eighteen. Yeah, just an extraordinary you know, the 59 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 1: value destruction there from this management team. Uh, Michael, can 60 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: the new company really compete against Netflix and Disney. Can 61 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 1: they be a global leader? You know, I think they can. Um, 62 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: I think they'll be three or four global companies. HBO's 63 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: content is as good as anyone's. UM. The weakness they've 64 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: had is is not being able to move into international markets. 65 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: That's going to change. Who they've had is the under 66 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: the inability to invest in. Now they're investing. So I 67 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: don't think it's crazy. I don't think it's crazy. They 68 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: could be a top three global aspot powerhouse. I really 69 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: do believe that. And then what about the telecom Yeah? Sorry, 70 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: question is is that a good business or not? Like 71 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: you know, our debates with us over the years have been, well, 72 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: they could be a top three company, but what's the 73 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: cash flow profile in that spot? It's a lower cast 74 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: sharing business, right, just not as attractive as a business 75 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: as they want had. So that was gonna be my 76 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: second part of the answer. The media business they once had, 77 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: you mean, yeah, like where they're moving from is not 78 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: going to be you know, where they're going is not 79 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: as good as where they start. Their problem. I wonder 80 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: about the telecom business because investors are voting the shares 81 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: up today, and I guess that's because what they're going 82 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: to have more money to spend. In the five G rollout, 83 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to pay down some of their 84 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: monstrous pile of debt. Um. You know, why, why do 85 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: you think the market likes this? You know? UM? I 86 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: think partly the market likes because it likes it because 87 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: they're getting back a sexy asset, assuming that the shareholders 88 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: directly get back shares in the new CO or the 89 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: new discovery. But you do have to scratch your head 90 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: a little bit because you know, remember before this, a 91 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: T and T was a company that paid a six 92 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,119 Speaker 1: point seven percent dividend yield and had a growth kicker 93 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 1: in HBO or HBO Max. Now it's going to be 94 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: a company that has about a four and a half 95 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: percent dividend yield and doesn't have a growth kicker. The 96 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: business stub that's left behind in wireless and wire line. 97 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: Let's remember that that is a business with negative service 98 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: revenue growth and falling IBADA. So it's not exactly like 99 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: you're getting a growth company. You're just getting a declining 100 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: company that now has a much lower dividend yield. I'm 101 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: not sure that's going to work for investors as they 102 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: sort of go through all the mad Craig, do you 103 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: expect a T and T. I mean it's got to 104 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: be really gunshot here, given what's happened over the last 105 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 1: several years. Is their strategy just to hunker down with 106 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: the assets that they have? Do you think they don't 107 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 1: have any choice? Um? They they have no money, right, 108 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: I mean they're levered at four times IBADA and and 109 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: the rating agencies have said the downgrade threshold is three seven. 110 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: So um, so they're hanging on for dear life. And 111 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: and while this will help them pay down forty three 112 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: billion dollars of debt, um, it will also offload cash 113 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: flows that supported more than forty three billion dollars of debt. 114 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: So this doesn't help them delever at all. What about 115 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: the discovery Uh, the discovery side discovery? What's right? That's right? Yeah? 116 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: What are they going to be able to do? I 117 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: mean they they to me, it looks like they come 118 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: here with an inferior like who cares about Home and 119 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: Garden TV? You're getting hbo Um, what is thats not 120 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: going to be able to do with this business? Well, 121 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: it's funny you say that because that is a point 122 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: of view of h G, t V and food of 123 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: a coastal, a coastal elite. You know. I've always had 124 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: that point of view too. It's like, who's watching those networks, 125 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: But they're watched by a ton of young women or 126 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: women in this country. So what Jobs is going to 127 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: try to do is protect his basic cable network businesses 128 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: and create, you know, an alternative bundle with TBS, T 129 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: and T CNN or all those discovery channels. Right, So 130 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: that's one thing, and he's gonna try to create an 131 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: add on bundle with Hrio Max. Think what Disney has 132 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: done with Hulu, ESPN and Disney plus, same kind of idea. 133 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,679 Speaker 1: Assets are not the same, but I think the idea 134 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: is like we can replicate parts of the bundle with 135 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: our own mini bundles. Here. Very interesting and I'm I'm 136 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: so glad that Paul got you guys to come in 137 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: today because it's a come on today, I should say, 138 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: not in obviously, but because it's such a fascinating discussion, 139 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: because you are the experts from whom we really can 140 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: learn all of this um stuff. Pleasure having you on 141 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: the program. Thanks very much, Michael Nathanson and Craig Moffatt 142 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: founding partners at Moffatt Nathanson on the A T and 143 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: T Discovery merger. Hate the word merger. It's always one 144 00:07:55,800 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 1: buying the other. This is Bloomberg. Let's get over to 145 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: Aaron Callenberg right now, CEO of the Wild Alaskan Company, 146 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: as we talk about E. S G and UM. As 147 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: so many people have seen the Netscape movie documentary c 148 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: spirc Um. You gotta wonder about um wild caught fish. 149 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: It's delicious, it's the best obviously, but um is it sustainable? 150 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: Aaron Callenberg, as I said, joins us, Um, how do 151 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: you make that sustainable? Aaron? You know, wherever we see UM, 152 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,479 Speaker 1: big industrial fishing it it always just seems to decimate 153 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 1: the ecosystem. Yeah, happy day everybody. This is Aaron. Um. 154 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: Just a little background wild last and you know we 155 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: are a monthly seafood membership service. We should curated box 156 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 1: of wildcot seafood, sustainable seafood to members across the country. Um, 157 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: you know, and the sustainability UM topic, you know, especially 158 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: around you know, the documentary you mentioned is one that's 159 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: near and dear to my heart and the Callenberg family. UM, 160 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: you know you how do you do? How do you 161 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: do it air and sustainably. I mean, um, you know, 162 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: you know it's obviously it's it's the best for eating 163 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: and I want fish, crabs, prawn, that's wild caught salmon especially, 164 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: but I'm worried about the ecosystem. Yeah. The way you 165 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: do it is you do it the way Alaska has 166 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: done it with a constitutional mandate that was written into 167 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: the state constitution that mandates the sustainable yield. You do 168 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: that with the subsequent enforcement of that mandate across the 169 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: entire industry. Um. The thing about Alaska, it's the largest 170 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: um sustainably managed fishery in the world. It's quite different 171 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: than the rest of the world. And in fact, um 172 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 1: notably absent from the documentary that you mentioned, there was 173 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: any mention of Alaska or sustainable management practices, the governance, 174 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: the enforcement, and the culture. Um. The re in the 175 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: Alaska wrote that into their constitution is prior to statehood, 176 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 1: the fisheries were essentially being mismanaged, um, you know, by 177 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: the federal management and the state of Alaska understood that 178 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: in order to maintain or increase the economic viabilities of 179 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: the fisheries, they needed to protect the fish. If you 180 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: take care of the fish official take care of you economically. 181 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: So they put in the strongest standards for sustainable fisheries 182 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: management and they're now are what considered the global gold 183 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: standard for sustainable fisheries management. UM. And so, you know, 184 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,679 Speaker 1: contrary to popular belief, Alaska is not estimating the environment 185 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: or the fish populations. And there's plenty of evidence to 186 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: suggest that if global fisheries were to adopt these practices, 187 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,599 Speaker 1: which are codified into law in Alaska, you have a 188 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:49,680 Speaker 1: quite different global fishery. Aaron talked to us about how 189 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 1: your business changed during the pandemic. It seems like we 190 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: hear from a lot of retailers that their online sales 191 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: went through the roof and we're seeing boxes on everybody's doorstep. 192 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: How did you impact your business? Yeah, there's no doubt, 193 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: you know, as a pandemic has been a global tragedy, 194 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 1: but for a while to lask and um, you know, specifically, 195 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: there's no doubt. You know, our business has increased by 196 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: five acts. You know. UM, we're seeing it on two fronts. 197 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: We're seeing consumer demand for uh, you know, healthy eating, 198 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: you know, especially in the post pandemic increase. But in addition, 199 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: you know, so many other e commerce companies actually had 200 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: supplied to chain disruptions, you know, importing um, you know, 201 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: food from outside the United States. One of the great 202 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: things about Wild Alaskan is we're a fully US based 203 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: supply chain, so we didn't have those disruptions, so we 204 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: were able to actually continue disservice the domestic market. UM. 205 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,079 Speaker 1: And you know that in addition to that, the man 206 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: allowed us to really pull ahead. Aaron, thanks so much 207 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: for joining us. UM, super cool business idea there. I 208 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: think it's like a hundred and thirty hours a month 209 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 1: and then you get fresh caught, sustainably caught probably the 210 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: most important part, but I'm sure also incredibly juicy and 211 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: delicious fish, crabs, prawn, et cetera. And Wild Alaskan company. 212 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: Aaron Callenberg is the CEO and talking to us about 213 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: you know why how they do it in Alaska, Paul 214 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: is different from um, how you see it in other 215 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: parts of the world. Yeah, I didn't know that that 216 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: it was, you know, codified into that state law. But 217 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: you know that's a really interesting aspect to their business. 218 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: Absolutely and and important, right because especially if you spend 219 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: any time on the see UM, you want these cultures 220 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 1: to thrive. This is Bloomberg. Now let's bring in Greg Han. 221 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: He is president and chief investment officer Winthrop Capital Management. 222 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: They have almost three billion dollars in assets under management, 223 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: and Greg, I want to first get your um, your 224 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: your concerns for this market. I mean, we have heard 225 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: a lot of inflation concerns over the last few days. 226 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: Then we saw this you know, bitcoin thing blow up again. 227 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: It looks like maybe deflation concerns, at least deflation of 228 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 1: the speculative bubble. UM maybe first, first and foremost, front 229 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: and center here. How do you look at it? So 230 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: our base case for the economy right now is that 231 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: the vaccine will be effective in controlling the spread of 232 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: the virus, the economy will reopen, we'll see the accelerated growth. 233 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: We still believe that that's the case. It's not a 234 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: straight line up, UM, and we're seeing that the labor 235 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: markets causing a little bit of UM anxiousness. UM. Cp 236 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 1: I obviously is the is headline news. With inflation picking up. 237 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: This actually is a scenario that the FED wants. The 238 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: FED was looking for accelerated growth and increased inflation. So 239 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: now we've got it. The question is whether it's going 240 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: to be sustained inflation or whether this is just a 241 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: short term hiccup. But right now, I think the real 242 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: concern is navigating the structural issues that we're dealing with 243 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: in the capital markets. All right, Greg, So assuming that 244 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 1: this inflation is more transitory than perhaps more longer term 245 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: and problematic, what are some of the sectors that you 246 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: guys are looking at right now? So the dance dance 247 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: with the girl that brought you right to the to 248 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 1: the dance, and that's the tech stuff. The large cap 249 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: tech is Microsoft, Alphabet. Um we we still like those, 250 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: and I think there's a catalyst behind it is there's 251 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: these are heavy cash and so there's catalysts for stock 252 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: buy backs and increased dividends. UM plus we like the fundamentals. UM. 253 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: On the Chinese side, we still like ten Cent in 254 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 1: Ali Baba. Ten Cent we think is just a hidden 255 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: gem in this market. And UM we still like the financials, 256 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 1: but I'm hesitating a little bit. We have a steep 257 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: Pheel curve. You're gonna see stock buybacks on the financials 258 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: including JP, Morgan, Bank America, and Goldman UM. But that 259 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: that has some legs to it. It's not the same 260 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: kind of growth that we're going to see in the 261 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: large cap tech though, So you really see large cap 262 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: tech then coming back with a vengeance from the lull 263 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: that we've seen in the end of the second half. Yeah, 264 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: these are great and the first half sorry. These are 265 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: great business models, these huge margins, and these they have 266 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: global reach. So all the noise around antitrust and and that, 267 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's legitimate, but it's noise. These we 268 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: we we think that these are companies are sophisticated enough 269 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: to move through it. Um and some of the products 270 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: that are coming out Microsoft Products Suite is amazing. Um, 271 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: there's there's there's still room for growth here. Alright, Greg, 272 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: we saw on some of those tech names. Um, you know, 273 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: the companies report generally really really strong numbers. Get the 274 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: stock didn't react and you know, cause a lot of 275 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: investors to say, oh, is this tech trade? Is this 276 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: growth story trade over? Is Is it really a cyclical 277 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: driven maybe even a small cap market? How did you 278 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: view earnings in the stocks responses? So we separate we 279 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: kind of have to separate the text based into two 280 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: different categories. There's large cap and then there's small cap, 281 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: and that whole small cap tech space has got I 282 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: mean it's it's over valued, it's there's valuation is the 283 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: biggest issue in this this whole space. And then when 284 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: you when you kind of sort through what's going on 285 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: in the I p O market, you look at what's 286 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: happening in the recovery basket as as UM COVID affected 287 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: industries recover there as an alternative, and that's part of 288 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: what we saw was a shift moving into some of 289 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: the cyclicals or value oriented parts of the market in 290 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: away from tech. That the place we're focused. We're not 291 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: focused in that small cap tech space. We're focused really 292 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: in in the large cap where you've got sustained business models, 293 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: and you don't think that the valuations are too high. 294 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: I mean they're not off the charts. If I look 295 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: at the NYC Fang Index, but I do see forty 296 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: five you know UM times earnings look there, there's no 297 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: question by historic standards they're high. UM. However, studies show 298 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: that in periods of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus we 299 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: will see extended valuations. Multiples were hanging our ad on 300 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: at I think there's no other way to look at 301 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: it other than to say, is is Okay, we've got 302 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: the stimulus in the market. It's going to support these 303 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: valuations for the time being. Can these valuations now handle 304 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: an increase in interest rates? That's I think that's really 305 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: going to be the question if if we see accelerated inflation, 306 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 1: what will happen to the market. You know that this 307 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: that all makes sense to me. Greg. The The interesting 308 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: call I think is large cap Chinese tech because it's 309 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 1: such an opaque uh yeah, you know universe, right. I mean, 310 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: you can't see in you don't know what the Communist 311 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: Party is going to do, and that's a little bit riskier. 312 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: It is there's authoritarian capitalism against Western capitalism. And this 313 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: is a much longer conversation. I won't weigh it down here, 314 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: but these are companies that do have um audited financial statements. 315 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: They do comply with international standards for audits. The issue though, 316 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: is they won't let auditors in to actually examine the books. 317 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: That's really what I think. The The issue for the 318 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: exchanges are for Chinese stocks trade in the United States. 319 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: But that's why Hong Kong is so important to China 320 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: in our opinion, and we see um the big banks 321 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: still acted their golden sacks. Overnight there was a story 322 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,959 Speaker 1: hiring three people in China and Hong Kong, the biggest 323 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: ever hiring spree for the big investment bank there. Um. Greg, 324 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really fascinating to get 325 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: your insight, and especially as we see these these markets 326 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: bounce around like this. Greg Han as President and Chief 327 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management talking to us about 328 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: their um sticking with a large cap tech stocks, the 329 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: fang stock, so to speak, but also interested um still 330 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 1: in large cap Chinese tech holdings including ten Cent and 331 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: Ali Baba, as well as the financials as the yield curve, 332 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 1: steep yield curve is helpful to them. This is Bloomberg. 333 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,439 Speaker 1: Now let's get over too marked outing. I told you 334 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: we're gonna have the CEE i Oh at Blue Bay 335 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: Asset Management join us. He is here to talk about 336 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: his outlook for I guess mark. Inflation is probably the 337 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 1: biggest front and center concern for investors right now, whether 338 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: you're worried that it's going to come on quickly or 339 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: whether you're worried about a popping of the speculative speculative bubble. Um, 340 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: where do you stand on the inflation concern. Well, good morning, 341 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: so thanks for the question. I guess I'd firmly be 342 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: in the camp that markets are being rather complacent around 343 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: the nature of inflation here. Obviously, the narrative from the 344 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: FED has been that inflation is going to be transitory, 345 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: but the reality is the next month's cp I is 346 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: likely to be up again as further base effects flop out. 347 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: We've got a negative from May twenty that will drop out. 348 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,199 Speaker 1: The data to here is so inflation will go up 349 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: again next month, and so I think the inflation signals 350 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: will continue to flash red for a WHI wouldn't surprise 351 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: me if the market's complacency around the transitory narrative ends 352 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,960 Speaker 1: up being tested, and certainly from my perspective, I reckon 353 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 1: that you'll end up seeing inflation and this year closer 354 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: to three more than two percent, which is considerably more 355 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,360 Speaker 1: than the Fed is callegi discounting. All right, Mark, let's 356 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 1: look within the fixed income markets. One of the areas 357 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 1: or just investing in general. One of the areas of 358 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: real growth is e s G investing environmental social governance, 359 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: and I've heard that term a lot. We hear it 360 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,959 Speaker 1: a lot in the equity markets. On the fixed income markets, 361 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: I guess we're starting to hear more about green bonds. 362 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: Is that something that factors into your portfolio? Yeah, so, 363 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,399 Speaker 1: I think we're all hearing a lot more about E 364 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: s G. And the reason for that, frankly, is our 365 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 1: clients really care. They care about E s G outcomes 366 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: as stewards of financial assets um and ultimately, I think 367 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: we're seeing increasingly that those issues that deliver better E 368 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: s G performance do end up delivering better investment performance. 369 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: Certainly in the credit world, if you're a better E 370 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: s G performer, you end up being a bit more 371 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: credit worthy ultimately. Speaking that said, on the on the 372 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 1: question of green bonds, I think the the this is 373 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 1: a bit of a double edged sword actually when we 374 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: speak about green bonds, because green bonds certainly have got 375 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: a place where the issuance which occurs wouldn't otherwise have 376 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 1: come about if those green bonds weren't issued. But a 377 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 1: lot of the time, what we're actually starting to see 378 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: is a lot of issuers just cashing in on a 379 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 1: trend by tapping into an area where there's hot demand 380 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 1: to get a cheaper financing cost, where actually the bonds 381 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: that they're issuing aren't necessarily changing the actions of the issuers. 382 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: A lot of the the projects that are being sort 383 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: of finance would have gone ahead anyway, So actually the 384 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 1: green bond issuant isn't making such a difference. So I 385 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: think for us at Blue Bay, we we would be 386 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: saying that the reality of E s G is a 387 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: fixed income invest It's not really about green bombs. It's 388 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 1: really about taking an active approach to E s G analysis, 389 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: integrating s G considerations into your portfolios, and actually engaging 390 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 1: with issuers to try and really drive s G outcomes 391 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: and the bend issue of behavior. You know, speaking of 392 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: game changers, you've got the E s G theme over 393 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,959 Speaker 1: the last few years that has been so prevalent. I 394 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: think the other one has to be cryptocurrency, digital finance. 395 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: Of course it's seen in a darker light. How do 396 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: you look at um, you know, we just had the 397 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: European Investment Bank issuing digital bonds on a theoryum. I 398 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: mean that's going to tell you that it's pretty mainstream now, 399 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: but people still are concerned in a risk from a 400 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 1: risk perspective when they look at it. Yeah, look, look 401 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: it's it's been a source of interest to all of us, 402 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: isn't it. I think that ultimately we would say that 403 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: blockchain is it's awesome technology. But I do think a 404 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: lot of the crypto that can't exist today it isn't 405 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,919 Speaker 1: really an asset class that investors should be trying to 406 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: allocate too much capital to. I think, frankly, the reality 407 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 1: is that a lot of the capital can't be tied 408 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 1: up in crypto is there for one reason only, and 409 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: that's financial speculation. It's really about the fear of missing 410 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 1: out and the desire to try and make further strong 411 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,479 Speaker 1: speculative gains by chasing these coin prices higher. But I 412 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: think that as we we almost I was pleased to 413 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: see that must change his tune last week. What we 414 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 1: are starting to see, though, is increasing concern from a 415 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: lot of investors that actually, if you drive up coin prices, 416 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: it's actually bad for the planet. Um, if you end 417 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 1: up encouraging bitcoin mining and that's driving up electricity to consumption, 418 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 1: it's not a great thing. So it's a bit ironic 419 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: that some of the the the kids of today who 420 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: care about the planet the most actually engaging behavior that's 421 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: actually doing some environmental home. But for me, I think 422 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: that we can speak about Toto being mainstream, but I 423 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: just don't get it for now, all right, Mark, thanks 424 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,400 Speaker 1: so much for joining us and sharing your thoughts there 425 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: on fix Income, on crypto, and on E s G investing, 426 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: market Doubting Chief investment Officer blue By Asset Management. Thanks 427 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 428 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 429 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 430 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 1: Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at 431 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us 432 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio