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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mout that Action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing out, So.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash stop. That's all we see.

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Speaker 4: Most gambles when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right?

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kaboy.

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Speaker 1: If you want to pass it.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way. What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. We are here for

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Speaker 1: our super Bowl fifty nine Prova Paluza episode. It's Chris

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Speaker 1: RayBan of the Action Network and Fantasy Labs, and I'll

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Speaker 1: be joined by the odds maker Sean Kerner. We both

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Speaker 1: got three props we're gonna give out, so everybody catail

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Speaker 1: as we give them out, So get ready for that.

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Speaker 1: But before we do, just want to remind everybody that

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Speaker 1: the stage is set for super Bowl fifty nine and

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Speaker 1: the many prop bets to come. That means now is

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Speaker 1: the perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro sub

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Speaker 1: from our experts like super Bowl propmasters, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, myself,

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Speaker 1: all the tools you need to turn a profit betting

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Speaker 1: Action Pro and as soon as we give out our

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Speaker 1: picks right now in the YouTube, we'll be giving you

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Speaker 1: easy to use links to instantly place the bets if

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Speaker 1: you so choose, And as soon as we wrap, we'll

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Speaker 1: also be dropping a link in the episode description and

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Speaker 1: that gives you access to all of the picks we

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Speaker 1: give out on the show. This is going to be

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Speaker 1: important for my first props, but which could be tricky.

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Speaker 2: It's fine, but maybe not, we'll see.

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Speaker 1: But first, just got to say what up to to

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Speaker 1: Sean and glad to be doing this again with your brother.

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Speaker 5: Right yeah, Happy Propa Palooza. Part one, I should say,

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Speaker 5: Next week is part two. Hopefully I have some you know,

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Speaker 5: punter props to work with next week. Didn't have any today,

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Speaker 5: but still have three great props ready to lock in

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Speaker 5: with you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking forward to it.

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Speaker 1: So I'll start it off, so you can, you can,

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Speaker 1: you can back clean up here, and so I'll go,

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Speaker 1: I'll give my first and then you'll give your first.

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Speaker 1: Little kind of alternate like that. But to start it off,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with a fun win, and it's the

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs to have under eight and a half

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Speaker 1: players to catch a pass at minus one sixty five

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings. I think this should be about minus two

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Speaker 1: fifty and you know, in true odds. So this is

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Speaker 1: it's a fun one to sweat. You can add it

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Speaker 1: to your parlays, but listen to the logics. So Kansas

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Speaker 1: City eight or fewer pass catchers thirteen of eighteen my

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Speaker 1: home starts this year, So that's about seventy two percent. Okay,

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Speaker 1: playoffs four and eight, the Super Bowls eight seven, eight, six,

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Speaker 1: so never gotten above that eight and a half number.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at all of the Super Bowls

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Speaker 1: going back to two thousand and two when we got

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Speaker 1: to thirty two teams, there's never been a team to

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Speaker 1: have nine players catch a pass in any of those sides.

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Speaker 1: So that's you know, forty four different Super Bowl sides.

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Speaker 1: Zero teams have had a pass nine pass catchers on

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Speaker 1: the same in the same game. So you have to

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Speaker 1: go back to the two thousan I was in the

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Speaker 1: one ram Greatest show on turf. It's always been done

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Speaker 1: five times period in Super Bowl history. So this is

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Speaker 1: one where I think there's actually probably it's even the

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Speaker 1: trueas are even higher than that. But I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say bet it until minus two thirty. But I do

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Speaker 1: not expect the Chiefs to get nine pass catchers involved

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Speaker 1: because Philadelphia's defense six to lowest completion percentage, tied for

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Speaker 1: the third most passes defense. So there's a good chance

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Speaker 1: that not everybody my home's targets will catch a pass,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen that playout, especially in that first game

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Speaker 1: against Houston. So Chiefs under eight and a half players

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Speaker 1: to catch a pass at minus one sixty five, I

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Speaker 1: bet it up to thirty, all right, that's our first

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Speaker 1: one sean where ye at?

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 5: So my first one is a tackles prop and I

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Speaker 5: got to get this out. This thing's been dropping like

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Speaker 5: a rock all day. It's been pissing me off, so

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Speaker 5: I'm giving it out right now. Drew Tranquil of the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs under seven and a half tackles and assists at

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Speaker 5: plus one ten. You know, Tranquoles the linebacker for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 5: and he's he's only clear this in four of eighteen

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Speaker 5: games a day, only twenty two percent of the time.

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Speaker 5: So when this opened at eight and a half, I

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Speaker 5: just added to the dock. This is my first prop

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Speaker 5: and it's dropped a whole tackle today. But I still

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Speaker 5: like the under because this is, you know, a good

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Speaker 5: matchup for linebackers. The Eagles run the ball a ton.

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Speaker 5: You know they're gonna have a lot of plays with

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Speaker 5: tackling opportunities. But you know, we kind of hinted on

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Speaker 5: our production SPoD. You know, Saquon Barkley runs are pure chaos.

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Speaker 5: There's a wider range of outcomes who's going to be

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Speaker 5: involved because he has so many explosive runs that it's

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Speaker 5: not going to be just the linebackers cleaning up on

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Speaker 5: most of them. So you know, it's definitely improvement for

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Speaker 5: his matchup than what he's seen all season. But it's

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Speaker 5: still not enough for me to get his projection up

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Speaker 5: to seven and a half. Because Trankle is the linebacker.

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Speaker 5: He's not out there every snap. He typically plays about

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Speaker 5: you know, seventy five percent of the snaps. Leo Chanel

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Speaker 5: actually tends to check in for him on third downs,

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Speaker 5: and considering the Eagles actually ran the fifth most third

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Speaker 5: down plays in the league, it could mean, you know,

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Speaker 5: Trankle could have a slight hit to his playing time here.

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Speaker 3: Either way.

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Speaker 5: You know, I'm only projecting him closer to seven point

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Speaker 5: two tackles, which you know, it's about a seventy percent

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Speaker 5: chance to stay under eight and a half. Some books

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Speaker 5: still have that price up, but I'm showing him about

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Speaker 5: a fifty five percent chance to stay under seven and

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Speaker 5: a half. So the fact that we're getting plus one

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Speaker 5: ten odds here, I like, this just hasn't been a

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Speaker 5: number he's typically cleared all season.

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Speaker 1: All right, Two things, First, what do you did you

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Speaker 1: Tranko was a linebacker for the Chief, Like, I'm not

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman, bro, Like I know who Ju Trankle is.

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Speaker 2: But second of a, I got a question for you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Like you know, so we see these Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: props like they go up because there's so much action

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Speaker 1: that's usually not there on normal weeks, but tackle props?

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Speaker 2: Is that true as well?

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Speaker 1: Because I know you're probably monitoring these from the open

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Speaker 1: to clothes more than anybody else.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, first.

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Speaker 5: Of all, that's hilarious, And I know you know who

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Speaker 5: Drew tranquil Is.

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Speaker 3: I'm talking to our audience. Of course, you know he's

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Speaker 3: a linebacker for the Chief.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, when it comes to these these tackle props,

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Speaker 5: I'd say that the market's been very efficient to open.

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Speaker 3: He was the only one that really stood out to me.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, like a lot of these.

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Speaker 5: Have been refined through the playoffs and things like that,

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Speaker 5: so I think most people do want to root for overs,

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Speaker 5: so everything's gonna be kind of shaded to the over.

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Speaker 5: But man, there is just isn't much value out there.

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Speaker 5: The other one that I was kind of thinking about

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Speaker 5: was Trent McDuffie.

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Speaker 3: We have been talking about that.

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Speaker 5: If you think he's gonna be on AJ Brown the

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Speaker 5: whole game, maybe stay away from that. But if they're

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Speaker 5: gonna play more zone, I would consider the under. But

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Speaker 5: either way, like this market is extremely sharp. He was

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Speaker 5: the one that stuck out like a sore thumb. Again,

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Speaker 5: he opened up at eight and a half, which is

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Speaker 5: way too high. I'm not sure why it was there,

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Speaker 5: so this is just this is just a bad number,

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Speaker 5: is all.

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Speaker 3: It is. All right.

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Speaker 1: There you have it, And if you're joining us for

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Speaker 1: this show, you probably like betting as much as I do,

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Speaker 1: as much as Sean does. And when it comes to betting,

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Speaker 1: there are two things that I'm always.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go into our second props. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go with the Kansas City Chiefs to get the most

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Speaker 1: first downs in the game at plus one oh five

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings, I bet this to about minus one twenty five,

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Speaker 1: and I like the Chiefs to get more first downs

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Speaker 1: for basically the reason that they're the least likely team

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Speaker 1: to you have explosive plays in this game. Now, both

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Speaker 1: of these teams Kansas City twelve of eighteen games they've

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Speaker 1: had more first downs in my Mahome starts Philadelphia same

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Speaker 1: thing and Jalen Hurts' starts. But the Philadelphia defense, that's

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Speaker 1: really really where it changes. Because Philadelphia's defense allows about

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Speaker 1: a first down per point, but they only allowed eighteen

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Speaker 1: points per game this year, so you know, they were

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Speaker 1: also first in the league and fewest first downs allowed

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Speaker 1: it just under eighteen. But this game is projected to

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Speaker 1: be pretty equal. I mean, you got the Chiefs favored,

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Speaker 1: so it's a drastically different game script for the Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: Eagles defensively, and you know, we know Vic Fangio keeps

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Speaker 1: the win on explosive plays. Philadelphia's defense, you know, top

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Speaker 1: three and fewest twenty yard pass plays top six and

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Speaker 1: huge twenty yard runs, so that I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. I think the Chiefs are gonna have to

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Speaker 1: move it up and down the field and therefore get

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Speaker 1: more first downs. And if you look at this postseason alone,

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia has had fewer first downs than their opponent in

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Speaker 1: two to three playoff games.

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Speaker 2: And it took that fifty five twenty three game.

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Speaker 1: Against the Commanders, which is an outlier all things considered.

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Speaker 1: And that's the game that they won the first down battle.

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Speaker 1: So I think this is a very likely one to

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Speaker 1: swing toward the Kansas City Chiefs way, So give me

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs most first downs plus one oh five at DK.

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Speaker 1: I bet it up to minus one twenty five. All right,

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Speaker 1: turner prop number two, were you at?

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Speaker 5: I'm going to go with a Noah Gray fade here.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to go with Noah Gray under one and

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Speaker 5: a half receptions at minus one twenty But you know,

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Speaker 5: we've talked about on our production SPoD how Noah Gray's

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Speaker 5: playing time has taken a bit of a hit ever

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Speaker 5: since Hollywood Brown made his season debut in week sixteen.

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Speaker 5: And this came at a time where Gray was on fire.

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Speaker 5: I think he had like three or four games with

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Speaker 5: at least four catches in a row.

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Speaker 3: I was high on him.

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Speaker 5: But ever since Brown, you know, made his season debut

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Speaker 5: for the Chiefs, Gray's you know routes run rate has

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Speaker 5: dropped about ten percent, and not only that, his his

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Speaker 5: target rate has really taken a hit. You know, weeks

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Speaker 5: one through fifteen, he saw a target on about sixteen

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Speaker 5: percent of his routes. Since Brown returned in the four

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Speaker 5: games with Hollywood Brown in the lineup, he's seeing just

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Speaker 5: a nine percent target rate, and he has a few things,

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Speaker 5: a few other things kind of going against him here

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Speaker 5: is you know, the first is Mahomes is scrambling at

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Speaker 5: a higher rate than usual in the playoffs. That's usually

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Speaker 5: the case. He kind of scrambles a lot more in

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Speaker 5: the playoffs, So we'll not only will that lead to

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Speaker 5: just fewer pass attempts overall, but I think it's gonna

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Speaker 5: impact Gray specifically because if Mahomes is pulling it down,

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Speaker 5: you know, it's it's probably because his first couple reads

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Speaker 5: weren't there, so he decides to run, and Gray typically

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Speaker 5: is going to be you know, outside of the first

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Speaker 5: two reads. So I think there's those are going to

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Speaker 5: take away from Gray's potential targets. And then another thing

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Speaker 5: is just the Eagles tend to you know, run at

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Speaker 5: a high rate, bleed the clock. So they've allted the

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Speaker 5: second fewest plays per game, So that's gonna kind of

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Speaker 5: take a hit to Chiefs. You know, counting stats like

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Speaker 5: a reception prop and you know, Gray has caught eighty

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Speaker 5: two percent of his targets this year.

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Speaker 3: His expected catch rates.

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Speaker 5: You know, closer to seventy six percent, so he could

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Speaker 5: see some potential catch regression as well. So having said

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Speaker 5: all that, I have him staying under one and a

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Speaker 5: half catches about sixty one percent of the time, and

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Speaker 5: this kind of correlates Rayvaughn with your under eight and

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Speaker 5: a half Chiefs to catch a pass because I have

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Speaker 5: him about you know, twenty seven percent chance to go catchless,

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Speaker 5: which is what he did last week, So that that'll

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Speaker 5: help out your prop as well.

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Speaker 3: If he fails to catch a pass here.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I think he didn't. He just like kind

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Speaker 1: of cardio king. It right off your spreadsheet or something.

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Speaker 1: I think you had him from like over like two

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Speaker 1: routes last week or something like that.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we need to like go over our sources for that,

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Speaker 5: but it was between three and seven routes. Whenever you

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Speaker 5: want to define a route, you know, a block and

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Speaker 5: release type of route. No, the cardio king for this

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Speaker 5: game is absolutely Johan Dotts, and I'd put my money

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Speaker 5: on that. But yeah, Gray, it was the cardio king

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Speaker 5: for the Chiefs that last week at least.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he really hasn't been the same. He might

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Speaker 1: have gotten hurt. I remember seeing him get a little

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Speaker 1: banged up. I think in that Texans game, the first

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Speaker 1: one in the regular season. I don't know, maybe he's

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Speaker 1: just hasn't been quite right or something, but yeah, I've

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Speaker 1: noticed the downtick as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll get.

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Speaker 1: Into our third, but just want to remind everyone that

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Speaker 1: now is the perfect time to upgrade to an Action

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00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,920
Speaker 1: Pro subscription because only Action Pro subscribers get real time

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00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 1: pick alerts from our experts like Super Bowl propmaster Sean Kerner, myself.

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00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,320
Speaker 1: All the twos you need to turn a profit betting

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Speaker 1: in twenty and twenty five are there in an Action

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00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 1: all up into the next college football and NFL season.

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Speaker 2: Said, don't wait.

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00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:52,320
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00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's close it out. My third prop is.

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Speaker 3: Going to be.

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Speaker 1: No miss kicks, So we're going plus two hundred. I

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Speaker 1: bet this down to about plus one seventy five, but

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Speaker 1: we're gonna bet on no miskicks, that's field goals or

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Speaker 1: extra points. And I know this one is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a sweat because Jake Elliott has missed one every single

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Speaker 1: postseason game.

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Speaker 2: For the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: But I think this is a little inflated because you

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Speaker 1: look at Harrison, Butcker not really as worried about him.

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Speaker 1: He's been perfect in each of his last six postseason

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Speaker 1: games on thirteen pats and fifteen field goals. He's actually

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Speaker 1: been perfect in nine of his last ten postseason games. Elliott, however,

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Speaker 1: he's missed a kicking in half his games this year.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at his splits, almost all of

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Speaker 1: those misses, actually all but one of those misses have

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Speaker 1: come outdoors. He's nine of nine pats and five of

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Speaker 1: six on field goals indoors, So it should be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more accurate here. And he has been really

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Speaker 1: struggling from distance. But you know, in this type of game,

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Speaker 1: if they don't trust him on a long pick, the like,

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Speaker 1: we just go for it, you know, barring you know

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Speaker 1: your end of game, end of maybe end of half

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Speaker 1: a scenario. So I think there's a high likelihood that

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Speaker 1: you know these three games, these three games where he's

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Speaker 1: just been missing kicks left and right are kind of

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Speaker 1: creating a little bit of recency buyas a little bit

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Speaker 1: of inflation there. So the odds imply about a one

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Speaker 1: in three chance of it of you know, no miskicks.

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Speaker 1: But I'm projecting over a thirty seven percent chance of

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Speaker 1: no missed field goals or point after tries in this game.

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Speaker 1: So I bet this two plus one seventy five no miskicks.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, you're up last clean up hitter. Really,

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Speaker 1: I guess it's six. You're hitting six, But you know

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00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,120
Speaker 1: that's that's a nice power spot driving some runs as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, what you got for sure?

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Speaker 4: Uh?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So I'm going to attack this most tackles and assists market.

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00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,920
Speaker 5: The Discord should know what I'm going with because I've

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Speaker 5: been talking about this guy in this market specifically for

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Speaker 5: a couple of weeks now, and it's Orrin Burks of

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Speaker 5: the Eagles to have the most tackles in this game

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Speaker 5: at plus three twenty Burks of I know you know

351
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Speaker 5: this Ray Bun Burks, of course, is a linebacker for

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00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 5: the Eagles. He's been filling in for the injured na

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Speaker 5: Kobe Dean and there is some potential for Jeremiah Trotter

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00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 5: Junior to kind of mix in and share the role

355
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 5: with Burks, but Burks has been averaging about a ninety

356
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Speaker 5: five percent snap rate in these two games without Dean,

357
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 5: so he's almost a one for one replacement. So in

358
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Speaker 5: this market, you know, Zach Bond should be the clear favorite,

359
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 5: and he is at plus one seventy five. I'm projecting

360
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 5: him for close to ten tackles, but I'm projecting Burks,

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00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 5: you know, not too far behind. I'm projecting him for

362
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Speaker 5: nine point two tackles, and I think a lot of

363
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Speaker 5: the reason why he's showing value in this market kind

364
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 5: of goes with my Drew Trenquell under bet. You know,

365
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,479
Speaker 5: when I woke up this morning, Trenkles prop was eight

366
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,880
Speaker 5: and a half, which is way too high, but that's

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Speaker 5: why he has a third best odds right now at

368
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 5: plus three fifty. I think that he should be like

369
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 5: twelve to ones. I think a lot of the value

370
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Speaker 5: is just this market's kind of stale, and they're giving

371
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 5: trink Will too much of a chance to take this down.

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00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 5: I think the third most likely player to take this

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00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 5: down is going to be Nick Bolton of the Chiefs.

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00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,399
Speaker 5: So after running all my you know, tackle projections and whatnot,

375
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Speaker 5: I have Burks closer to plus two fifty, and I

376
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Speaker 5: just think he has a ton of upside in this market.

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00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 5: You know, any solo tackle he gets, we're bond isn't involved,

378
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 5: that's going to make it more likely he can pass

379
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 5: up his teammates. So I think we're getting some sneaky

380
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,640
Speaker 5: value on Burks here to lead the game in tackles

381
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 5: at plus three twenty. I know it's it's not as

382
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 5: exciting as my JayR. Brown seventy five to one bet

383
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 5: last year, but this one's probably more likely to hit.

384
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 5: And I still like the value we're getting here at

385
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Speaker 5: plus three twenty.

386
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:47,119
Speaker 2: Love it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we might have to just do a whole

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00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: forget the touchdown show.

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Speaker 2: We just got to do the tackle show.

390
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 3: Oh hell yeah, don't tell me what a good time?

391
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:56,359
Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 1: So that is going to do it for us here

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network by Super Bowl fifty nine Propa

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00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 1: Palooza Round one. We'll be back next week for round

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00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 1: two of the Super Bowl fifty nine Propa Paloosa for

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 4: Let's get this money.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,720
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