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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: It's the first day of the Kansas City Fed's annual

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Speaker 2: Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and there is a

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Speaker 2: lot hanging over this year's gathering, of course, questions about

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Speaker 2: the path of monetary policy and the future of a

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Speaker 2: September rate cut, but also what has been the mounting

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Speaker 2: pressure from this White House on the Central Bank, as

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Speaker 2: President Trump called yesterday for FED Governor Lisa Cook to

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Speaker 2: resign over allegations of mortgage fraud. And we did get

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Speaker 2: a statement from Fed Governor Cook yesterday where she said

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Speaker 2: that she will not be bullied into stepping down, adding

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Speaker 2: in part quote, I'm gathering the accurate information to answer

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Speaker 2: any legitimate questions and provide the facts. And that's where

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Speaker 2: we want to start by bringing in Bloomberg's Michael McKee,

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Speaker 2: senior International economics and Policy correspondent, who is already there.

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Speaker 2: He's been there all week in Jackson Hole for US Mike.

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Speaker 2: We heard from a top DOJ official earlier today saying

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Speaker 2: that he does plan to investigate these allegations. What do

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Speaker 2: we know about the administration's response so far and what's

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Speaker 2: the latest when it comes to this.

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Speaker 3: Well, the latest is that Ed Martin, who is the

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Speaker 3: Justice Department official that the President has put in charge

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Speaker 3: essentially of finding dirt or getting revenge on Democrats. He's

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Speaker 3: also charged Senator Adam Schiff and the New York Attorney

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Speaker 3: General Letitia James with mortgage fraud, has said that he

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Speaker 3: is going to investigate the allegation sent to the Justice

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Speaker 3: Department by THEFA director yesterday, Bill Pulti. Martin went beyond that, though,

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Speaker 3: and put out a statement saying he wants Jerome Powell

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Speaker 3: to get rid of Lisa Cook, to take her off

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Speaker 3: the FED board right now, because Americans are demanding it. Well,

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Speaker 3: that may not be true, but the real issue is

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Speaker 3: j Pow has no authority to remove Lisa Cook. The

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Speaker 3: only one who can remove a FED governor from office

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Speaker 3: is the president, and they have to do that for cause.

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Speaker 3: And there's a lot of questions about whether all of

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Speaker 3: this amounts to cause. So I've been told that Lisa

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Speaker 3: Cook isn't going to get into it tip for tat

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Speaker 3: with Ed Martin or anybody else on this. She will

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Speaker 3: gather her information work behind the scenes with her lawyers

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Speaker 3: on what happens next, and the FED is not expecting

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Speaker 3: any changes in personnel anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: Mike, does this boil down simply to the question of

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump trying to get another board seat in his favor.

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Speaker 3: Here it seems that way Lisa Cook votes with the chair,

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Speaker 3: basically with the majority, and so if the FED were

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Speaker 3: to cut interest rates in September, you could expect her

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Speaker 3: to vote that way. Removing her one way or another

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Speaker 3: wouldn't make a big difference in terms of the September

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Speaker 3: seventeenth meeting. But if the President could get a fourth

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Speaker 3: seat on the board, but with someone that he had nominated,

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Speaker 3: there is a feeling that maybe he would have more

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Speaker 3: control over what the FED is thinking and doing going forward,

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Speaker 3: although the two members he's already appointed, Chris Waller and

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Speaker 3: Mickey Bowman, might not be willing to go along with

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Speaker 3: any presidential directive to change interest rates or act in

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Speaker 3: any particular manner.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 2: To expand on this, Mike I know that we talked

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Speaker 2: about it last hour here on Balance Power. But we

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Speaker 2: have this great story on the Bloomberg terminal today titled

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Speaker 2: quote Trump aims to win majority on FED Board with

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Speaker 2: cook ouster attempt. Can you just give us a little

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Speaker 2: bit more context here about the makeup of the FED

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Speaker 2: Board And even if President Trump were to get this majority,

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Speaker 2: would that necessarily mean that he gets his way when

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Speaker 2: it comes to rate cuts.

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Speaker 3: Well, it doesn't mean that the FED Board of Governors,

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Speaker 3: there are seven of them, run the overall Federal Reserve system,

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Speaker 3: but there are twelve regional FED banks headed by bank

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Speaker 3: presidents chosen by boards of directors for those banks. Now,

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Speaker 3: if the President got four votes on the seven member board,

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Speaker 3: that would give the board the power to fire those

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Speaker 3: regional presidents. But that would probably cause a major uproar

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Speaker 3: on Wall Street, and so that's not considered likely. What

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Speaker 3: it may be is that the President is looking for

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Speaker 3: a longer term sympathetic view towards lower interest rates, and

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Speaker 3: if he got four of the seven, then that's a

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Speaker 3: majority on the board. He'd have to convince a few

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Speaker 3: of the bank presidents, five of them voted every meeting,

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Speaker 3: and if he could do that, then he would have

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Speaker 3: an easier path to get rates down. But where this

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Speaker 3: all goes is really hard to predict, because, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: Mickey Bowman and Chris Waller have been on the FED

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Speaker 3: for some years now. They are not considered revolutionaries, even

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Speaker 3: though they dissented at the last meeting, And most of

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Speaker 3: the people I have spoken with here say they wouldn't

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Speaker 3: expect them to vote for rates to go down just

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Speaker 3: because Donald Trump wanted it. It would have to be

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Speaker 3: justified by economic conditions.

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Speaker 4: Well, Mike, one of the people you happened to speak

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Speaker 4: with today, of course, was the host of the event,

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Speaker 4: and that is Kansas City FED President Jeff Schmid. He

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Speaker 4: was outlining his view that there is a marginally higher

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Speaker 4: risk of inflation when weighed against the labor market risks.

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Speaker 4: How is that shaping his view of what the FED

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Speaker 4: should do next and how does he fit into the

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Speaker 4: ranks of the other folks will be seated at the

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Speaker 4: table next month and deciding the Fed's policy move.

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Speaker 3: Well, basically, he's saying, if conditions continue as they are now,

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Speaker 3: he would not want to cut rates because the danger

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Speaker 3: is higher inflation. Now, that was what we saw out

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Speaker 3: of the minutes of the July thirtieth meeting when they

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Speaker 3: were released yesterday, that only Waller and Bowman were the

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Speaker 3: ones who were saying we should cut rates now. The

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Speaker 3: rest of them were more concerned about inflation than the

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Speaker 3: labor market. That meeting was before the last labor market report,

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Speaker 3: which showed the big dramatic reduction in hiring and the

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Speaker 3: revisions to previous months, and so there is some concern

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Speaker 3: about what's happening in the labor market, but the unemployment

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Speaker 3: rate barely moved. So if that stays the same and

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Speaker 3: inflation ticks up a little bit, and it's going to

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Speaker 3: be much harder for the FED to decide to cut rates.

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Speaker 3: And it looks like Schmid would be in the majority

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Speaker 3: in that case.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Mike McKee out in Jackson Hall, thank you so

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Speaker 4: much for all your reporting. We're going to turn down

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Speaker 4: next to Lydia Bussor. She is the Ey parthen On

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Speaker 4: Senor eonymiust thank you for joining us, Lydia. I want

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Speaker 4: to keep with the Fed for the moment. Lydia. In

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Speaker 4: about twenty one hours from now, we're going to be

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Speaker 4: hearing from FED Chair Jerome Powell. What are you going

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Speaker 4: to be listening for in his keynote addressed at Jackson Hall.

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Speaker 4: This will be in a way a valedictory for him

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Speaker 4: as FED chair. Are there any messages you will be

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Speaker 4: trying to divine from his comments.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so there's a lot of anticipation ahead of the speech.

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Speaker 6: I think, you know, Fetchhair Powell will want to keep

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Speaker 6: the options open when it comes to the September meeting,

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Speaker 6: so there's a lot of talk about that September raycut.

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Speaker 6: I don't think we're going to get a strong signal

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Speaker 6: as to what the decision in September will be, but

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Speaker 6: you know, Fetchhair Powell will be highlighting some latest developments

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Speaker 6: on the outlook, so he might acknowledge what we've seen

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Speaker 6: in the label market in terms of softening in label

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Speaker 6: market conditions.

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Speaker 5: And importantly, he's.

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Speaker 6: Going to be covering the conclusion of the revision of

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Speaker 6: the FEDES framework, so we're going to hear about that.

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Speaker 6: I think it's interesting that it's happening against a very

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Speaker 6: different backdrop than the last one. In twenty twenty, we

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Speaker 6: have an economy that has gone through the pandemic. We've

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Speaker 6: seen a new paradigm when it comes to inslation. With

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Speaker 6: now people concerned about persistently high inflation, so I think

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Speaker 6: the FED we'll want to take that into account in

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Speaker 6: their review.

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Speaker 2: And of course, a large part of this conversation does

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Speaker 2: have to do with tariffs, and it's worth mentioning that

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Speaker 2: we did get some tariff news earlier today, the White

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Speaker 2: House and the European Union putting forth this joint statement

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Speaker 2: perhaps a step in the right direction towards getting pen

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Speaker 2: to paper when it comes to finalizing that agreement for

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Speaker 2: fifteen percent tariffs on EU exports in place, though not

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Speaker 2: yet in place for those sector specific tariffs including autos lydia.

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Speaker 2: Are we actually getting the sort of clarity that we

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Speaker 2: need around tariffs to have this more precise economic forecast,

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Speaker 2: the sort of precision that policy makers need to have

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Speaker 2: in order to make these types of decisions.

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Speaker 6: No, I think we have a backdrop in terms of

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Speaker 6: tariffs that remain highly uncertain. So I do believe that

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Speaker 6: you know, with these higher tariffs and the lingering uncertainty

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Speaker 6: that we are seeing on the policy front, we continue

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Speaker 6: to see a downward pressure on economic activity from all

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Speaker 6: that uncertainty. If you look at tariffs today, the average

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Speaker 6: tariff rate is.

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Speaker 5: About eighteen percent.

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Speaker 6: We were at two percent last year, so that's a

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Speaker 6: significant step up and we are starting to see the

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Speaker 6: impact of these tariffs on the economy.

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Speaker 5: So if you think.

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Speaker 6: About the outlook in the second half of the year,

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Speaker 6: I do think that this slower economic momentum that we

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Speaker 6: are seeing in the data in the label market, but

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Speaker 6: also if you look at the underlying trend in GDP growth,

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Speaker 6: when you look at real file sales to domestic purchase,

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Speaker 6: we have a clear indication that the economy is slowing

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Speaker 6: down and in the second half of the year, I

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Speaker 6: think that's a trend that will be sustained. So we

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Speaker 6: do expect to see below trend growth in the second

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Speaker 6: half and heading into twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 4: Lydily, you talked about a slowdown there, but we're also

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Speaker 4: seeing some flashes of impact on prices, perhaps from the tariffs.

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Speaker 4: What is your read on that, On the inflationary impact

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Speaker 4: of these import levees and how much more will we

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Speaker 4: see going through the end of the year.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the inflation picture is quite complicated at the moment.

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Speaker 6: There are a lot of cross currents. If you look

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Speaker 6: at the latest CPI reports, I think that was a

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Speaker 6: clear indication of all these cross currents. We have services prices,

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Speaker 6: which had been a key source of these inflation pressure.

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Speaker 6: They showed some renewed momentum in July. At the same time,

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Speaker 6: on the good side, we had clear indication of path

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Speaker 6: through in June and then more moderate path through in July.

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Speaker 6: So there is a lot of noise, and it's really

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Speaker 6: a reflection of this sort of messy and uneven process

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Speaker 6: when it comes to the tariff path through. But companies

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Speaker 6: are starting to see some pressure on their margins.

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Speaker 5: Higher terifs are leading to higher cost and they.

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Speaker 6: Are leading companies also to start pulling back on hiring

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Speaker 6: as well. So the impact of tariffs is really starting

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Speaker 6: to show up, and I think it will continue to

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Speaker 6: build in the second half of the year.

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Speaker 2: Can we talk just a little bit more, drilled down

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Speaker 2: a little bit more here, including how it pertains to

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Speaker 2: the consumer. I'll add another headline that we got here today,

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Speaker 2: which is Walmart miss profit expectations for the first time

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Speaker 2: in three years. LYDIA will slower income growth, limit the

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Speaker 2: extent to which firms can pass on these costs of tariffs.

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Speaker 2: What are you watching here when it comes to that dynamic.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we are definitely expecting real income growth to slow

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Speaker 6: in the coming months, and that's really driven by both

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Speaker 6: that softening in the label market, which is the key

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Speaker 6: pillar of consumer spending growth. So that's going to lead

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Speaker 6: to slower label income growth, and at the same time

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Speaker 6: you have that renewed reacceleration in inflation. We've seen poor inflation,

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Speaker 6: you know, bow three percent for the CPI, so those

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Speaker 6: higher prices, they're also going to be eating into consumers

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Speaker 6: purchasing power. So if you think about real income growth,

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Speaker 6: you're definitely going to see a slowing trend. That's already

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Speaker 6: visible when you look at the data. Consumers have been

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Speaker 6: actually spending above their many if you look at the

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Speaker 6: annual trend in consumer spending and real disposible income growth.

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Speaker 6: So as you move ahead, you are saying you're starting

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Speaker 6: to see some erosion in those fundamentals that are driving

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Speaker 6: the consumer. So, yes, for now, consumers are still resilient.

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Speaker 6: I think the retail cell data we're encouraged, but there

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Speaker 6: are clear signs that with a software label market, with

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Speaker 6: that inflation pressure and also confidence remaining depressed, we're going

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Speaker 6: to see that slower momentum in consumer spending being sustained

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Speaker 6: in the coming months.

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Speaker 4: Liddy, you talked about a slower labor market. How much

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Speaker 4: more will this influence FED policy makers? We did here

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Speaker 4: earlier today from the Kansas City FED president saying that

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Speaker 4: he was actually more worried about prices than the labor

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Speaker 4: market risk at this moment. But what is your take,

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Speaker 4: which in the balance weighs more at this point.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So yesterday you saw the minutes from the FED.

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Speaker 6: They did show that you have a majority of policy

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Speaker 6: makers at the FED are.

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Speaker 5: Still seeing the inflation risk.

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Speaker 6: You have signed based to inflation as being more significant

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Speaker 6: than the label market risk. Now, that was at the

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Speaker 6: July policy meeting, and since then, what we've seen is

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Speaker 6: that very softly jobs report. We've seen those massive downward

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Speaker 6: revisions to the May and June data, And I do

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Speaker 6: think that when policymakers are looking at label market conditions today,

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Speaker 6: they are a little bit more concerned about that slowly

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Speaker 6: on that we're seeing.

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Speaker 5: And it's not just the jobs report.

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Speaker 6: If you look at a broad range of label market indicators,

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Speaker 6: they've been signaling already for a while that labor demand

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Speaker 6: has slowed significantly. The hiring rate is very low, and

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Speaker 6: we are also seeing slower dynamics on the supply side

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Speaker 6: of the label market as well. So as you know,

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Speaker 6: as we get to the September meeting, I do think

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Speaker 6: that the shift will be you know, the focus will

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Speaker 6: be a little bit more on the label market side

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Speaker 6: of the FEDS duel Moundata and that's the reason why

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Speaker 6: we do expect to see a rate at the September meeting.

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Speaker 2: All right, Lado besour senior economists at euy Parthenon, we

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Stick with us more Balance of Power is coming up

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Speaker 2: right after the break. I'm Tyler Kendall alongside Michael Shepherd,

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Speaker 2: and this is.

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have

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Speaker 7: much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: This is the Thursday edition of Balance Power on Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: TV and Radio. And we saw a big development today

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Speaker 2: surrounding one of President Trump's legal woes that now sounds

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Speaker 2: like it's turning in to a pretty big win. A

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Speaker 2: New York appeals court striking down a massive four hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty four million dollar fraud penalty against the President

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Speaker 2: and his companies in a civil suit over his asset valuations. Now,

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Speaker 2: the New York Attorney General, Lytitia James has already responded,

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Speaker 2: saying that she will seek an appeal, and that's where

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Speaker 2: we want to bring in Bloomberg's June Grosso, the host

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Law on Bloomberg Radio. June, thanks so much

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Speaker 2: for being here. Can we just start out by getting

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Speaker 2: some context into this case. Why was President Trump facing

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Speaker 2: such a massive penalty in the first place.

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Speaker 8: What led to this, Well, the New York Attorney General

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Speaker 8: sued him for fraud, saying that he overvalued his assets

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Speaker 8: when trying to get loans. So, if you remember, there

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Speaker 8: was the Trump Triplex that he said was three times

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Speaker 8: its value and its size. So that was the and

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Speaker 8: it was also against the Trump sons, So it was

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Speaker 8: a judge trial and came back and he said that

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Speaker 8: they were guilty of fraud. And then he imposed this

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Speaker 8: massive penalty. It was an unusual kind of fraud because

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Speaker 8: the so called victims, the banks, etc. Weren't really complaining.

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Speaker 8: They didn't even have anyone testify that they had been

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Speaker 8: hurt by this. And that was part of the argument

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Speaker 8: that Trump's lawyers and Trump made over and over again.

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Speaker 4: Jud Is the issue really in this penalty being set

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Speaker 4: aside just a question of its size? Or is there

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Speaker 4: more to it than that.

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Speaker 8: This was a very confusing, three hundred page opinion, and

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Speaker 8: it took almost eleven months to come down with it. Normally,

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Speaker 8: these opinions come down, you know, maximum a couple of months,

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Speaker 8: and that's because the judges were all over the place.

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Speaker 8: Two of the judges said they would have ordered a

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Speaker 8: new trial. Two of the judges said the fraud conviction

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Speaker 8: was justified, but the penalty was too large. One of

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Speaker 8: the judges would have dismissed the case entirely. So what

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Speaker 8: does stand, though, is that they said that the fraud

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Speaker 8: conviction was justified and just the penalty was excessive.

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Speaker 6: They said it.

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Speaker 8: Wasn't a cataclysmic loss, so that it violated the Eighth

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Speaker 8: Amendment to the Constitution, which outlaws excessive fines and you know,

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Speaker 8: that is the big takeaway from this, because they also said,

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Speaker 8: the majority of them said that Attorney General Leticia James

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Speaker 8: acted within her authority and she was vindicating the state's interests.

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Speaker 8: You know that Trump has claimed and in fact, the

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Speaker 8: Justice Department is investigating Leticia James saying that she violated

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Speaker 8: President Trump's civil rights by bringing this action. So it's

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Speaker 8: a very confusing kind of decision. But what stands is

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Speaker 8: that enough of the judges thought that the verdict was excessive.

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Speaker 8: I mean, it was three hundred and about three hundred

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Speaker 8: and fifty five or something, and then it ballooned to

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Speaker 8: over five hundred with the interest penalties.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg's hearing. Grasso, thank you so much for your insights

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Speaker 4: on this. I'm sure we'll be talking about it again.

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Speaker 4: We're going to bring back our political panel here on

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Speaker 4: Balance of Power. That's Mora Gillispie from Bluestack Strategies. She's

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Speaker 4: the founder there and a Republican strategist. And we're also

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Speaker 4: joined by Julie Roginsky, who's co founder of Lift our

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Speaker 4: Voices and a Democratic strategist. Thank you both for hanging

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Speaker 4: in there. I want to turn the topic now to

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Speaker 4: events happening in Georgia. Vice President j d Vance is

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Speaker 4: there with a handful of Republican lawmakers to try to

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Speaker 4: sell to voters the one Big Beautiful Bill that is

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Speaker 4: the tax package that was signed into law by President

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump earlier this year, a pillar of his economic policy.

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Speaker 4: But more I wanted to turn to you to ask

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Speaker 4: about how it is sitting with voters, including Republicans, and

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Speaker 4: why they need to do this sort of sales campaign

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Speaker 4: on the road.

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Speaker 9: They definitely need to be organized in their messaging because

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Speaker 9: early polling showed that the americ people were not happy

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Speaker 9: with the Big Beautiful Bill, largely because of the cuts

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Speaker 9: to healthcare programs that have been largely popular. So this effort,

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Speaker 9: I think it's two fold. Setting gdvans out there is

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Speaker 9: pretty intelligent, and so he can speak to here's the

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Speaker 9: numbers that they're seeing. The part of it, too, there

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Speaker 9: is that these impacts are not going to be felt

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Speaker 9: directly just yet. So a lot of it is kind

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Speaker 9: of semantics. It's Democrats versus Republicans. Democrats telling you that

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Speaker 9: you know you're going to be hurting. Republicans are saying

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Speaker 9: that eighty five percent of earners or the top bottom,

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Speaker 9: a five set of earners are going to be benefiting

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Speaker 9: from the tax cuts. So it's basically a messaging war

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Speaker 9: right now, and Republicans feel like they need to get

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Speaker 9: out ahead of it because they're currently losing that messaging war.

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Speaker 9: I also think that setting JD Vans out there is

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Speaker 9: to keep them kind of out of what was happening

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Speaker 9: earlier this week with Zelenski coming to DC with the

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Speaker 9: conversations regarding Ukraine, just because he has been pretty adamant

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Speaker 9: about America not being involved, and so the switch that

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Speaker 9: Trump has taken, the president has taken on that message,

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Speaker 9: there's that divide, and so rather than show it so glaringly,

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Speaker 9: they're separating the two to have him go tout around

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Speaker 9: the country about the big via of a bill while

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Speaker 9: the president is trying to show his foreign policy chops

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Speaker 9: here in the United States. So I think there's twofold

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Speaker 9: to the tactic of sending jdvans out to Georgia and more.

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Speaker 2: Another aspect here, much to your point, is that a

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Speaker 2: lot of the tax cuts we saw in this tax

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Speaker 2: bill are front loaded, but still a lot of voters

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Speaker 2: aren't going to feel those impacts until twenty twenty six

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Speaker 2: compared to the spending cuts that are coming a little

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Speaker 2: bit further down the road, but still duly. As we

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Speaker 2: see the administration try to explain these benefits, I'm wondering

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Speaker 2: how Democrats are trying to organize around a message when

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Speaker 2: they're going up against big officials like the Vice President

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Speaker 2: now on the road.

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Speaker 10: Well, you only need to see what's happening at the

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Speaker 10: few Republican town halls that are being held during August Tresas.

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Speaker 10: People are furious, and they're not people living in New

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Speaker 10: York City or San Francisco. There are people living in

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Speaker 10: places like Nebraska and Iowa. They're just appalled at the

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Speaker 10: fact that Republicans have now taken positions that will eventually

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Speaker 10: throw Grandma out of the nursing home, that will eventually

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Speaker 10: cut food from food and secure people. And these are

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Speaker 10: not necesscessarily people who are strangers to the Americans who

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Speaker 10: vote for Republicans. I mean, nursing homes don't care what

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Speaker 10: your party affiliation is when they say to you, sorry,

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Speaker 10: we can't afford to keep you here. Sorry, you don't

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Speaker 10: have Medicaid access, so we can't do anything to help

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Speaker 10: you with home care. All of this is something that

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Speaker 10: affects Americans on a daily basis. It's not if it's

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Speaker 10: not you, it's your mom. If it's not your mom,

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Speaker 10: it's your grandma. If it's not your grandma, it's your

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Speaker 10: autistic child who needs help. And the help comes largely

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Speaker 10: through these programs that have been cut, and so we're

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Speaker 10: dealing with programs that touch everybody. I mean, everybody is

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Speaker 10: affected by this for the most part, unless you are

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Speaker 10: incredibly wealthy and you can afford to pay for your

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Speaker 10: nursing home or for your child out of pocket. And

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Speaker 10: that's something that I think is a huge mistake for

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Speaker 10: the Republicans. They have backloaded this to take effect after

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Speaker 10: the twenty sixth election, but not after the twenty eight election,

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Speaker 10: and just wait until that happens a year and a half.

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Speaker 10: It's going to be a disaster. Americans understand that now.

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Speaker 10: Maybe they're not feeling it quite yet, but if you're

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Speaker 10: listening to me, America, prepare yourselves because it is going

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Speaker 10: to happen in the next year and a half to

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Speaker 10: two years, and better to be for you, for Warrens

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Speaker 10: who could be armed about what's coming down the pike.

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Speaker 4: Julia, I want to keep it with you on this

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Speaker 4: next question, and you're describing a picture of really an

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Speaker 4: angry Democratic base and perhaps a motivated one. And yet

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Speaker 4: we do see findings in the New York Times published

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Speaker 4: yesterday that voter registration for the party is down in

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Speaker 4: as many as thirty states across the country, including some

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Speaker 4: Democratic strongholds like Massachusetts and even California. How do you

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Speaker 4: explain that and what can the party do to turn

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Speaker 4: that trend around in time for twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 10: Party's got to learn how to fight. And you know,

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Speaker 10: we are way past the sternly worded letter part of

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Speaker 10: this cycle. We're way past giving floor speeches and even

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Speaker 10: you know, floor speeches that are excessive, like twenty five

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Speaker 10: hour floor speeches. People are looking for a fight. That's

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Speaker 10: why somebody like Gavin Newsom has really captured the imagination

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Speaker 10: of the Democratic base right now, and not just the

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Speaker 10: Democratic base, but Democrats across you know, people who are

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Speaker 10: not even affiliated with the Democrats. Look, nobody is thrilled

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Speaker 10: with Donald Trump's performance except for his maggot base, which

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Speaker 10: is about thirty five percent of the electorate. Everybody else

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Speaker 10: is souring on Trump on every single issue, whether it's

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00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 10: the economy, whether it's immigration, whether it's crime. Mean, on

439
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 10: every issue, he's now way down, if not underwater, and

440
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 10: Democrats have an opportunity, but.

441
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 5: They have to seize it.

442
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 10: And I think the problem is that our leaders in

443
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 10: Washington are still playing by these Roberts rules of orders

444
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 10: as though still the nineteen nineties. As somebody who worked

445
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 10: on the Hill in the nineties and the early two thousands,

446
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 10: I can tell you it was a magical time. That

447
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 10: time is now gone, it does not exist anymore. And

448
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 10: yet we have still the same leaders leading the Senate

449
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 10: who were there then and believe that this is how

450
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 10: things should be. Now we are never getting that United

451
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 10: States back, and I think Democrats need to understand, like

452
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 10: Gavin Newsom understands that Kathy hoachlel in New York is

453
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 10: starting to understand with redistricting, that whatever comes next is

454
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 10: going to be very different from what's come before. We

455
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 10: can't do what Joe Biden did, which is talking about

456
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 10: the former guys. Though he was of flash in the

457
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 10: pan and he wasn't coming back. He's here. Trump Ism

458
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 10: is here. If Trump has gone tomorrow, it will still

459
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 10: be here. And we need to address it and we

460
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 10: need to start leading like we're fighters and not like

461
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 10: we're sitting on our heels waiting for him to implode

462
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 10: on his own. I think that's why you're seeing discussed

463
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 10: with the Democratic Party, including from people like me who's

464
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 10: dedicated her entire life to the Democratic Party and to

465
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 10: getting Democrats elected for that reason.

466
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 2: All right, Mara, In just our final thirty seconds here,

467
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: another headline from that New York Times analysis finds that

468
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: battleground states are swinging to the right. If but Julie

469
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 2: Sing is correct, how do Republicans then maintain momentum against

470
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: the sort of organizing that she's foreseeing from the Democratic Party.

471
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 9: I think that when you look at the Donald Trump dynamic,

472
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 9: he can't currently run again, so Republicans will need to

473
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 9: ship their messaging because just as which really pointing out, yes,

474
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 9: Mega has a.

475
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 5: Stronghold with Donald Trump.

476
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 9: However, there are people who have waned on him, but

477
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,719
Speaker 9: that doesn't mean that they're going to become Democratic voters.

478
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 9: So you have to appeal to them as well. And

479
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 9: so for Republican leadership and for those who are running

480
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 9: for office and the Republican balance, they need to be

481
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 9: thinking how do I message and how do I convince

482
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 9: people who are looking to vote for Republicans who are

483
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 9: more pragmatic, speak to them about what they're doing for

484
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 9: their communities, talk more locally and trying to avoid some

485
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 9: of the fray that Donald Trump tends to swarm the

486
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 9: conversation in that'll be their best ticket to winning and

487
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 9: to fending off the Democratic push.

488
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 2: All right, our political panel today, More Gillespie and Julie Roskinski.

489
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: We thank you so much for being us, being with

490
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 2: us for both hours of Balance and Power here. We're

491
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: going to have more coming up after the break, including

492
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 2: the redistricting fight playing out in Texas.

493
00:26:59,240 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 5: Stick with us.

494
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 2: This is Bloomer.

495
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 7: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

496
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 7: more coming up after this.

497
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

498
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay,

499
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

500
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

501
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,919
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

502
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 2: I'm Tyler Kendall here alongside Bloomberg's Michael Shepherd in Washington,

503
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: and there's a story that we've been following closely here

504
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: in Washington though it's happening pretty far from here, and

505
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 2: that's the redistricting story that's taking place and shape in Texas.

506
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: It has some pretty big implications for the twenty twenty

507
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: six midterms. After the Texas House of Representatives approved a

508
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 2: new state congressional map that is backed by President Donald

509
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 2: Trump at caps a week's long political standoff and boosts

510
00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 2: Republican's chance of keeping hold of the House come the midterms.

511
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 2: President Trump posted on truth Social about it, saying, quote

512
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: big win for the great state of Texas. For more. Now,

513
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: we're joined by Texas Bureau Chief Julie Fine. Julie, thanks

514
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 2: for sticking with us. It's always good to see you.

515
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: Can you just bring us up to speed here because

516
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 2: President Trump is posting about this being a big win.

517
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 2: But is it a done deal yet?

518
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 11: It is not a done deal yet. This has passed

519
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,119
Speaker 11: in the Texas House. The Senate is just pushing it

520
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 11: out of committee. It will now be voted on later

521
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 11: today by the full Senate. The full Senate, though, we'll

522
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 11: have no problem getting it through.

523
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 4: It was the.

524
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 11: House that had the real obstacle. So the House passed

525
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 11: it's bill, the Senate will pass its bill. They may

526
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 11: have to rectify a few differences, but then it will

527
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 11: go to Governor Abbit. Governor Abbit has made it very

528
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 11: clear he put this on the agenda call that he

529
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 11: is going to sign this bill. So it's pretty close

530
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 11: to done, but not a done deal.

531
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 4: Julie. This has been a pretty bitter and public spectacle.

532
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 4: What sorts of scar tissue has it left among the

533
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,479
Speaker 4: legislators there in Austin, And it's just going to make

534
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 4: it hard to get business done in the state capitol

535
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 4: going forward.

536
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 11: I mean, it's not going to make it that hard

537
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 11: because the Republicans hold the majority in the Senate and

538
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 11: in the House. But one thing about the Texas House

539
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 11: is most bills are actually passed. Ninety percent of the

540
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 11: bills are bipartisan here ninety percent or above. In most

541
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 11: legislative sessions. It is a close group. Although there has

542
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 11: definitely been this bitter battle. You could definitely see yesterday

543
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 11: with the closing arguments, some very pointed remarks. However, I

544
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 11: saw a walkout in twenty twenty one as well, that

545
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 11: came back in twenty totenty three and work together. Obviously

546
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 11: it's very tense right now. How long that lasts I

547
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 11: think really depends on the next few weeks.

548
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: Bloomberg's July fine from Dallas. Thank you so much for

549
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 4: your insight, and we'll keep coming back to you for

550
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 4: more on the Texas redistrict and fight over the coming days. Now,

551
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 4: we'd like to turn to Representative Nicole Maliatakas, who is

552
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 4: a Republican representing the eleventh District of New York and congresswoman.

553
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 4: We'd like to stick with this topic of redistricting and

554
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 4: ask whether this fight might be coming home to you.

555
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: Do you see this battle actually moving to New York

556
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 4: and are you and your district perhaps vulnerable to moves

557
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 4: by Democrats to redraw the map in the Empire State.

558
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 12: I think this certainly does open up the floodgates all

559
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 12: around the country now as each state looks to make

560
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 12: gains that will benefit their own political party. I've been

561
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 12: very clear that whether it's Republicans or Democrats tempting to

562
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 12: politically gerrymander, that it's wrong. I believe it's corrupt, and

563
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 12: it silences and takes away the voice of the people

564
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 12: who are supposed to be the ones who decide our elections.

565
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 12: I think it's really important that we have the most

566
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 12: competitive seats possible. That is how you hold your representative accountable,

567
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 12: and that is how you ensure that they actually come

568
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 12: out and speak to you, the voters, about what they're doing,

569
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 12: what they're not doing, how they vote and why. And

570
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 12: so I don't support what Texas is doing, and certainly

571
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 12: obviously there's concern that they may try to do this

572
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 12: again in New York. Now, in twenty twenty two, Kathy

573
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 12: Hokel and the Democrats did gerrymander, even after there was

574
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 12: a ballot referendum in which New Yorker's made very clear

575
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 12: they did not want political jerrymandering. We sued after they

576
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 12: egregiously redrew my district, and we were able to get

577
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 12: the entire map of the state of New York thrown out,

578
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 12: and it was then a court appointed independent master that

579
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 12: drew the lines. And what happened when we actually had

580
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 12: fair maps in New York, Republicans made significant gains and

581
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 12: the Democrats lost two of their incumbents. So I think

582
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 12: that that was a lesson to Kathy kle and the Democrats.

583
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 12: They tried to do the same thing again in twenty

584
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 12: twenty four when they did a switcher rough on the

585
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 12: court of Appeals and tried to remove the chief judge

586
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 12: that had sided with us and then backfill it that

587
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 12: position with somebody who did not side with us, And

588
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 12: basically that was very corrupt what Kathy Ogle did. They

589
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 12: did win an opportunity to redraw, but because of the

590
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 12: public outrage and the scrutiny nationally, they did not change

591
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 12: the maps much in twenty twenty four. So here we

592
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 12: are again potential redistricting battle, but there would need to

593
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 12: be a constitutional amendment, which would mean that it would

594
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 12: have to pass this legislative session, next legislative session, and

595
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 12: then go to the voters in a referendum. So the

596
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 12: earliest they could potentially redraw these maps would be for

597
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 12: twenty twenty eight. But nonetheless, I think we will fight

598
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 12: back and we will defeat them once again.

599
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 10: Right.

600
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 2: And it's interesting, Congresswoman, because we often said here that

601
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 2: the path to taking the House in twenty twenty four

602
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: did run through New York, because we know that there

603
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 2: were a lot of those Republican seats that ultimately helped

604
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: the GOP get to the majority. But just to put

605
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: a finer point on this conversation about redistricting, are you

606
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: confident that if this were to happen again, that same

607
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 2: legal pathway would be there for you to protect against

608
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 2: the efforts that could be targeting your own district.

609
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 12: Well again, it would have to go to a public referendum,

610
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 12: and I think we would actually win that once again.

611
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 12: We did win it the first time around when they

612
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 12: tried to do this, and then what they did was

613
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 12: they just ignored the will of the people and jammed

614
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 12: it through anyway, which is why we were able to

615
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 12: sue successfully in court. What I would say to my

616
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 12: fellow Republicans is that we have the opportunity here to

617
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 12: win on merit, and that's what the way elections should be.

618
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 12: We've just delivered very significant tax relief for working Americans,

619
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 12: for middle class families, for senior citizens. Eighty eight percent

620
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 12: of seniors across the country are going to see their

621
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 12: tax liability on Social Security or race when they do

622
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 12: their refunds next year. The economy is doing well. We're

623
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 12: seeing trillions of dollars in private investment. We're seeing a

624
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 12: lot of good things that have happened, whether it's prices

625
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 12: coming down, energy costs coming down, mortgage coming down. And

626
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 12: I think that we need to make sure that we're

627
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 12: going out and talking about these successes because we're going

628
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 12: to win a mariat. We don't need to stoop to

629
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 12: what the Democrats tried to do in New York, which

630
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 12: is they could not win on merit in debate, which

631
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 12: is why they redrew our maps are attempted to do so.

632
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 12: So again, I think this opens up a slippery slope.

633
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 12: I don't want to see it happening. And aside from that,

634
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 12: it shouldn't be happening only once a decade after the census,

635
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 12: which means the next redrawing of maps should be in

636
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 12: twenty thirty two.

637
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 4: Congresswoman, when we talk about the question of winning on

638
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 4: merits and on debate and on the issues today, we

639
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 4: see and in fact this our Vice President JD. Vance

640
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 4: joining some of your House Republican colleagues in Georgia to

641
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 4: try to pitch the benefits of President Donald Trump's tax legislation,

642
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,959
Speaker 4: which you, of course had a role in getting through

643
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 4: the Chamber. Why do you think there is the need

644
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 4: to make this sales pitch to the American people. Have

645
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:05,239
Speaker 4: you detected any concern among your constituents and is there

646
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 4: an issue with the messaging itself from the party about

647
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 4: what may be beneficial in the legislation.

648
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 12: I think there's a lot of misinformation and there's a

649
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 12: lot of confusion. The Democrats have said one thing and

650
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 12: the Republicans are saying another, and so I think it's

651
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 12: important for Republicans to be on the offensive because we

652
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 12: are proud of this piece of legislation. It is the

653
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 12: largest tax cut in history. It is making sure that

654
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 12: the child tax credit not only gets extended, but gets increased.

655
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,760
Speaker 12: We're helping workers from tipped restaurant workers to uber drivers

656
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 12: to middle class families like the ones I represent. State

657
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 12: and local tax relief significant for New York. They're getting

658
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 12: hammered by the Democrats, whether it's property taxes or income taxes.

659
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 12: This is going to give them relief. I think in

660
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 12: some cases in my district, we'll see thousands of dollars

661
00:35:56,040 --> 00:36:00,280
Speaker 12: in savings for families and the assault deduct, the seniorduction.

662
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 12: Fifty one million seniors across America are going to get

663
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 12: relief and keep their Social Security paycheck without the government

664
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 12: taking tax dollars from them. So what I would say

665
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 12: is that this thing's going to sell on its own.

666
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 12: I have confidence that when people do their taxes in

667
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 12: twenty twenty six. They will see the significant relief for

668
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 12: the twenty twenty five tax year, and you'll see the

669
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 12: economy again continuing to grow. We're seeing GDP growth, We're

670
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 12: seeing trillions of investment in private companies, domestic and foreign,

671
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 12: expanding operations, expanding manufacturing facilities. Here it seems every week,

672
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 12: if not every couple of days, that President Trump is

673
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 12: announcing a new company that is expanding their operations, particularly

674
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 12: in the automotive sector, pharmaceutical tech sector. This is really

675
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 12: all good stuff for our economy. And I think come

676
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 12: a year from now and we're in the midterm elections,

677
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 12: people will see the benefits and they'll see that they're

678
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 12: fear mongering that many of the Democrats were committing. We're

679
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,760
Speaker 12: simply fear mongering, right. They'll see that the Medicaid cuts

680
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 12: that they said were going to take place did not happen,

681
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:16,240
Speaker 12: That seniors, disabled, children with disabilities, all children, pregnant women,

682
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 12: people below the federal poverty line will not have any

683
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 12: of their benefits touched. They'll see, and they're seeing it regularly,

684
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 12: how those who are the fraudsters are getting prosecuted, and

685
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 12: I think overall will be shown to be the truthful

686
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 12: ones in this debate.

687
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: Well, and Congressmen, Democrats are saying that they want to

688
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 2: have some more say here, even though Republicans do hold

689
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 2: both chambers of Congress. And I want to stick on

690
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 2: this idea of the work of Congress because we should say,

691
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 2: for our radio listeners, you're joining us from world headquarters

692
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: in New York, but when you get back here to Washington,

693
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: there are going to be fourteen working days before the

694
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 2: continuing resolution expires. Are we going to just keep seeing

695
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 2: continuing resolutions through the rest of the year or are

696
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 2: we at risk of a shutdown if Democrats say that

697
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 2: they're not able to come to the table in a

698
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 2: meaningful way.

699
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 12: I've been in Congress for five years and I've been

700
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 12: through this a number of times where we avoided a

701
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 12: government shutdown, we avoided a debt default, and I think

702
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 12: we're going to do that again. But we do need

703
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 12: to see some bipartisan cooperation. I'm proud to be a

704
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 12: member of the House Problem Solvers Committee CACUCUS rather that

705
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 12: is made up of half Republicans, half Democrats, where we

706
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 12: come together to work through these types of more difficult things.

707
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 12: What makes the appropriations process different than reconciliation is that

708
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,919
Speaker 12: it needs to be bipartisan because we need to have

709
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 12: the sixty votes in the Senate, and so there's going

710
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 12: to have to be Democrats and Republicans coming together to

711
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 12: avoid a government shutdown. Now, whether that means we're going

712
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 12: to have to do a continuing resolution, I imagine it

713
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 12: will probably be a short term continuing resolution. I don't

714
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 12: want to see that. I would like to see the

715
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 12: Republicans put forward a budget that reflects the priorities of

716
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 12: the administration and the Republican controlled Congress. That is what

717
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 12: the American people voted for. But when we don't have

718
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 12: the votes to do so, because you need the sixty

719
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 12: votes in the Senate, it makes it more difficult. We'll

720
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 12: probably see some changes, some additions to the It wondn't

721
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 12: be just a plane continuing resolution. There would have to

722
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 12: be a little more to get Republicans on board and

723
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 12: deliver for our constituents. So I think that we'll see

724
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 12: how things play out. But I am confident that we

725
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 12: will avert a government shutdown, just like we've always have

726
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 12: since I've been there.

727
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 4: And congresswomen, are you confident in the thirty seconds we

728
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 4: have left that all Republicans will fall in line on

729
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 4: a continuing resolution when it comes to down to it.

730
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 12: I have confidence that they will not all fall in line.

731
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 12: That I'm pretty sure of, and that happens with every

732
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 12: continuing resolution. There's always a group of the Republicans that

733
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 12: do not want to support a continuing resolution, or they've

734
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 12: never voted for continuing resolution and don't intend to do

735
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 12: so now, which is all the more reason why this

736
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:22,439
Speaker 12: needs to be a by partisan process. And I think

737
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 12: that you know, I've supported the continuing resolutions. I think

738
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 12: there may have been just one that I voted against

739
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 12: for a border because the border was not secure. And

740
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 12: I think that you're going to see a large majority

741
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 12: of the Republicans support it and a small minority of

742
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 12: the Democrats to support it. That's probably how it would

743
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 12: play out in my prediction.

744
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 2: All right, Republican Congressman and Nicole malli Otaugus of New

745
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,319
Speaker 2: York's represents New York's loveth Congressional District. Thank you so

746
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:52,959
Speaker 2: much for joining.

747
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

748
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 7: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

749
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 7: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

750
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 7: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

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00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 7: at Bloomberg dot com