1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Also media, Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I am, 2 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: of course your host ed zetron. Also today, I am 3 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,239 Speaker 1: joined by two incredible reports from the Wall Street Journal, 4 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: Katherine Long and Kaitlyn Ostrov, who just published an incredible 5 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: and truly horrible story about poly Market and they're extremely 6 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: questionable influence marketing campaigns. Katheryne Caitlyn, thanks for joining me. 7 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: So happy with me here, thanks for having us said. 8 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: Okay, so walk me through exactly what poly market was 9 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: doing with these influencers and social media. What were they 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: paying for? What was then end result? 11 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: So the end result was an onslaught of videos that 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 3: appeared to show college age social media creators betting and 13 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 3: winning large amounts of money online. But what we found 14 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 3: is that all of those bets were actually fake. They 15 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 3: were placed on a dummy platform that Polymarket built to 16 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 3: almost exactly, but not precisely, resemble the website, and some 17 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 3: of the wins that the influencers showed themselves having were 18 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 3: faked as well. The creators were using things like outdated 19 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 3: footage or altered headlines to suggest that they won really 20 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 3: lucrative vets, when in fact they would have lost. 21 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: Right so just to be cleared, So the bets were fake, 22 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: the website was fake. But also the bets would have 23 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: lost a. 24 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: Lot of them, would have not every single one, but 25 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 4: the majority of the videos where bets were placed would 26 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 4: have actually lost in real life, but they were depicted 27 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 4: as winning. 28 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: That's truly awful. I thought Polymarket was illegal in America 29 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: as well. 30 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 2: You would be right about that. 31 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 3: Polymarket entered a settlement with federal regulators back in twenty 32 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 3: twenty two in which they agreed to stop offering their 33 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: platform to US traders. But as anybody who's used a 34 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 3: VPN knows, it's pretty trivial to get around things like 35 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 3: that kind of geofencing. Anybody with a VPN has been 36 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 3: able to access poly Market, even if they're based in 37 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 3: the US or other countries where poly Market is banned. 38 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: And so these influences, they're American based, right. 39 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 4: So it's a mix. Some are based in Canada, some 40 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 4: are based in the US, and then you know they's 41 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: likely creators and other jurisdictions as well. But that was 42 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 4: one of the mixed that we looked at in our corpus. 43 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: And so it looks like he was about eleven hundred videos. 44 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: You went over so that's truly it's truly a massive 45 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: scale operation. But do you think it's bigger than the 46 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: ones you saw or is it just it? Like? Did 47 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: you get any idea of the total scale? 48 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, So we reviewed eleven hundred videos that had been 49 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 3: posted between late December correct Primaron Kaitlyn was a little 50 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 3: it's never late November, late last year, late twenty twenty 51 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 3: five by all accounts, late twenty twenty five and mid 52 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 3: May of this year. So eleven hundred videos, ten creators. 53 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: My impression and belief for my reporting and Caitlin's reporting 54 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 3: and the reporting of our other colleagues is that this 55 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 3: is just the tip of the iceberg as far as 56 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: poly markets marketing operation. We identified dozens of other creators 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 3: who were posting videos in similar formats. We didn't scrape 58 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 3: their videos, but we thought our sample size was sufficient. 59 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: That's crazy, So walk me through the exact stage. So 60 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: you have a video of a guy based guessing whether 61 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: Trump will say in shah a Lah. I think was 62 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: one of probably not in your but like Trump will 63 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: say burger or something, and then they're staring at the 64 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: TV and then they go always said burger, but the 65 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: website they were making the bet home was just completely fake. 66 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: Yes, so yeah, so yeah. So in these videos, when 67 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: you watch them, you will often see a college age 68 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 4: student kind of go in with like this hook phrase, 69 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 4: but they'll say throw what or wait what, and then 70 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 4: they will be like, oh, I can, like I can 71 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 4: bet on this market, and they'll depict the market, and 72 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 4: then sometimes it will show essentially what the outcome is 73 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 4: of that market. They'll cut to video of Trump saying 74 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 4: a certain word or phrase, and then they'll jump up 75 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 4: and down and sort of give the impression that they've won. 76 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 1: And this is targeting children, So college age kids like that, 77 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 1: it's explicitly targeting young people. 78 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 3: Well, I wouldn't go that far as to say it's 79 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 3: explicitly targeting on people. But what we do know about 80 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 3: who it's targeting is that it is targeting Americans. We 81 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 3: looked at Polymarkets instructions to people who were paid to 82 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 3: boost the reach of this campaign online. A third party 83 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 3: contractor that Polymarket worked with to help manage the camp 84 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 3: said we'll only pay you if at least sixty percent 85 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 3: of your audience is based in the United States. And 86 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 3: then two you know, as to the point you alluded to, yes, 87 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: the creators who are making these videos, they are colleged 88 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 3: aged college students, people in their early to mid twenties. 89 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: Certainly, Jesus, it feels like introducing children to gambling on 90 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: some level. I mean, maybe you can't say that, but 91 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: I'm sent. I mean it seems like showing young people 92 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: doing something and saying you can get bread, which is 93 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: a young person's way of referring to money. For the 94 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 1: old heads listening, I knew that one. I'm not that all, 95 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: but it just it feels quite dystopian, is kind of 96 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: what I'm getting at. 97 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 4: It certainly is marketed to give the impression that this 98 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 4: is a way to make money off of what you know. 99 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 4: So the majority of the bets that we looked at, 100 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 4: you know, they showed a trade being placed. Most didn't 101 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 4: show an outcome, but for those that did, you know, 102 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 4: almost all of them it was someone winning. I think 103 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 4: there was like what four or five Catherine and the 104 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 4: group that we looked at where someone was depicted as 105 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: losing their bet. So the overarching message was you can 106 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 4: make money. 107 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: I kind of find it fascinating that there's one way 108 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: they lost anyway, keep. 109 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 3: Going, Yeah, I was just going to chime in and 110 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 3: add that, you know, in addition to the creators showing 111 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: themselves appearing to win money, they also implied that they 112 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 3: were wealthy in other ways, including by showing account balances 113 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 3: on this dummy website, where again no real money was 114 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 3: being traded. These balances were fictitious, but the videos showed 115 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 3: their account balances on poly market and the tens of 116 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 3: thousands of dollars. Some even had balances over one hundred 117 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 3: thousand dollars. And one of the creators whose videos we reviewed, 118 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 3: she shows herself placing bets from San Francisco bedroom, and 119 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 3: then she'll have a video where she's showing herself dancing 120 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 3: on a beach in front of the Golden gate Bridge 121 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: and she says poly Market funds my life, and there's 122 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 3: a Hello Kitty sticker in the corner that. 123 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 2: Says I am unemployed. 124 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 3: So the impression is certainly that, you know, these people 125 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 3: are are making enough money off of polymarket to support 126 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 3: themselves and support themselves in fairly high style. 127 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: And it sounds like kind of like a real operation here, 128 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: like in the sense that there is like they're building 129 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: functional dummy websites because looking I'm as we speak I 130 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: have the the anime gifts from the Peace up and 131 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: it's these seem quite intricate. These perhaps their vibe code 132 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: and it doesn't really matter because no payment rails are 133 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: in there, but these seem like they are built to 134 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: look identical. 135 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 4: They are extremely convincing. Catherine and I and our colleagues 136 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 4: were looking at these for about two weeks before our 137 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 4: colleague Neil meta Or realized that like, this is not 138 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 4: poly market. Like we started off firmly believing that this 139 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 4: was poly market. 140 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: Right, Well, when you say that, so this is the 141 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: p oh iy market website. When you say it, believe 142 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: you believed it was polymarket, What did you think the 143 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: purpose was when you found it? 144 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 4: We thought these were just videos that you know, people 145 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 4: were making, showing themselves placing actual trades on poly market. 146 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 4: I don't think we had a theory at the onset 147 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 4: as to why they were doing this, but we came 148 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 4: across a bunch of these videos and we were curious 149 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 4: to understand, you know, what was happening, like who these 150 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 4: people were, how they were making money. And so we 151 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 4: have this database of all of the polymarket trades that 152 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 4: we had been building over the past several months, and 153 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 4: we started off trying to trace these trades. We wanted 154 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 4: to understand, you know, what bets were happening, who was 155 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 4: making these, and we want to go about finding those 156 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 4: because all of Polymarket's data is public, and we very 157 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 4: quickly realized that we could not figure out like we 158 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 4: couldn't place these trades, we could not find the actual 159 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 4: trades shown in the video, and it took us and 160 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 4: minute to realize that this was not actually happening on polymarket. 161 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 4: And the red flag for that ended up being that 162 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 4: website poi y Market, which our colleague Neil Metta saw 163 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 4: and flagged to us. 164 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: Hell yeah, good work, Neil. 165 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, major shout out to Neil. 166 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: Here's the thing though, so wait, maybe I'm misunderstanding this. 167 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: So the not only did the trades, did some of 168 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 1: the trades never exist, like it was never possible to 169 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: bet on that particular outcome. 170 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 3: All of the markets that we saw did exist. And 171 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: that's one of the reasons why it took us so 172 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 3: long to understand that we were looking at a fake website. 173 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 3: I mean, we were cambing through this database. Caitlin has 174 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 3: been painstakingly building over months of every single trade on 175 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 3: polly Market, which you know is accessible to us because 176 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 3: Polymarket is a is a blockchain based system, so everything 177 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 3: is public. And you know, we were looking for these 178 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 3: trades that appeared to have taken place, right we saw 179 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 3: a video of it taking place, and it just didn't 180 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 3: seem to exist in this database. And at that point 181 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 3: we you know, thanks to Neil's eagle eyes showing that 182 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 3: you know, one of these creators had seemingly made a 183 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 3: mistake and accidentally left the URL of this fake site 184 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 3: poi Market, poi y Market. Yeah, that poly market had 185 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 3: built in his video, And it was only because of 186 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 3: that clue that we started being able to unravel that 187 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:33,719 Speaker 3: all of these videos that we were looking at were 188 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 3: actually being placed on fake websites, which, as we've mentioned, 189 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 3: the fake websites were almost identical to the real poly market. 190 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 3: But you know, once we started looking for some more 191 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 3: of these clues, once we knew that the website was fake, 192 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 3: we were able to distinguish various ways in which to 193 00:10:52,840 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 3: tell the fake website from the real website. 194 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: So was was it just poimarket or whether like multiple 195 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: other fake websites as well. 196 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 4: I mean, we like, once we started looking for other 197 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 4: like simulated polymarket websites. We did find a couple of others, 198 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 4: but the I think all of the ones that like 199 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 4: we were able to identify specifically what the website was 200 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 4: was Poimarket. There was one other where it was like 201 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 4: this developer link that appeared in a handful of videos 202 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 4: where it was like one of the like polymarket developers 203 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 4: dot like their name dot dev dot polymarket, dot dev. 204 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 4: And so it was like this internal development site that 205 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 4: appeared in a couple of the videos that also seemed 206 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 4: like it was being used. So we weren't always certain 207 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 4: like which simulated platform the trade was happening on, in 208 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 4: part because we heard from creating part of the instruction 209 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 4: that they got in making these videos was to not 210 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 4: make it obvious that it was on a simulated website. 211 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 4: So if you were on a poiy market, you might 212 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 4: uppercase the I to make it appear like polly Market. 213 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 4: And so you know, we came across a handful of these, 214 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 4: but I don't think we are exactly certain of how 215 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 4: much each one was used. 216 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: That's it's so strange. How is this not illegal? I mean, 217 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: I guess if the website itself is illegal then illegally 218 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 1: advertising the illegal website is kind of just a just 219 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: kind of doubling down at that point, doesn't really matter. Like, 220 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: has the government shown I saw that there was some 221 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: sort of federal inquiry into Pollymarket. Was it related to 222 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: this story? 223 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 3: We are not sure if the precise parameters or subject 224 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 3: of the federal inquiry you're referring I assume to CFTC 225 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 3: investigation that we reported on last week. Yeah, the contours 226 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: of that investigation are as yet unclear. You know, I 227 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:05,719 Speaker 3: know that it is ongoing and extensive, according to a 228 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 3: person familiar with the investigation. You know, I should add 229 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 3: as well that the CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 230 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 3: the agency conducting this investigation. A spokesperson for that agency 231 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 3: declined to comment on the existence of an investigation, citing 232 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 3: HC policy. 233 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. That is just so strange because I've I don't 234 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: think I've seen anything like this in tech outside of crypto, 235 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: which I know is I know that crypto is kind 236 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: of the is I think polymarket is a crypto product, right, 237 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: it's a blockchain one, Yeah, it is. They moved on 238 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: from that crap, that crap referring to a comment that 239 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 1: I'm making, not the journalist in. 240 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 3: Questions, No, it is a is a crypto, is a crypto, 241 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 3: it's it's on it's on crypto rails, as they would say, Yes. 242 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 1: That's so strange. What differentiates this from calshe because I 243 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: basically consider them the same website at this point, but 244 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: I guess they're different somehow. 245 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 4: So we like again, our social media feeds are just 246 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 4: full with videos for different platforms. You know, we we 247 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 4: came across the poly Market videos of them placing these trades. 248 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 4: We've certainly come across a lot of videos of you know, 249 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 4: people promoting call She, but we haven't come across anything 250 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 4: similar in the sense of you know, poly Market was 251 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 4: you know, telling people use to simulate it website, create 252 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 4: these bets and do not disclose that you have any affiliation. 253 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 4: We are always looking to see what we might be 254 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 4: missing in coverage of this piece, but you know, call 255 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 4: She is. I guess one difference between it in Polymarket 256 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 4: is also that it is regulated by CFTC. Polymarket has 257 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 4: a new US product launched late last year that is 258 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 4: CFTC regulated, but the broader platform is still offshore. So 259 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 4: you know, we we try to look to see what 260 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 4: we might be miss sing in this phase. But the 261 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 4: poly market videos kind of stuck out to us as 262 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 4: we were going through our own social media feeds just 263 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 4: trying to understand, you know, why we were getting so 264 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 4: many of these what was behind that? And we did 265 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 4: not expect it to lead to these simulated bets. 266 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: So are your algorithms? But so did you do this 267 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: on your own phones or like a journal approof one, 268 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: because I'm wondering all your algorithms ruined now? Oh yeah, cooked, 269 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: just like in like eighteen year olds in kids telling 270 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: you to gamble on the future. 271 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 4: Always the arm prediction markets. I like, I see no 272 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 4: other content at this point? 273 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, that must be awful. 274 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 4: We're keeping track of things. 275 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: It's yeah, this is why you've just got to look 276 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: at like lifting videos and palace cats. That's how I 277 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: get around this, just like you just need to cleanse 278 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: your feed every so often. But on a on a 279 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: legal level, just like on a think what differentiates Like 280 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: you said the poly market has a US approved product, 281 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: is like, is that a prediction market? Is it something different? 282 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: Why is Calshi able to operate legally but not poly market? 283 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? 284 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 3: So taking a zooming out here a bit right. So 285 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 3: Calshi poly Market's biggest competitor, Calci and poly market, they're 286 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 3: both prediction markets. 287 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 2: The biggest distinction between the two is that Calshi. 288 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 3: Calshi made a huge bet that it could successfully achieve 289 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 3: US regulated status, and poly Market conversely decided that it 290 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 3: was okay operating offshore as an unregistered crypto entity that 291 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 3: you know, people can access if they have a VPN, 292 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 3: but you know they're not technically supposed to. So Calshi 293 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 3: has not necessarily played nice with regulators. You know, it 294 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 3: had a pretty significant legal battle early in its career 295 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 3: over whether election markets would be allowed on the platform, 296 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 3: but it did have success. It won that battle, and 297 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:06,679 Speaker 3: now Calshi is a US regulated prediction market, which it 298 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 3: says is legally available in all fifty states, although there's 299 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,120 Speaker 3: currently some commotion over Nevada. 300 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 2: Which. 301 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: As a Vegas resident, you can't take up beautiful gambling 302 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: away from Vegas residents exactly. 303 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 3: So, as one might suspect, the gambling industry is extremely 304 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 3: worried about the rise of prediction markets. You know, unlike 305 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 3: online sports books or in person gambling. Calshi and other 306 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 3: US regulated prediction markets have successfully up till now made 307 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 3: the argument that they are federally regulated. That means that 308 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 3: states cannot restrict their operations, So state gambling commissions can't say, 309 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 3: can't impose conditions on how they operate. They also can't 310 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 3: levy taxes on prediction markets. 311 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: So Calshi has you. 312 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 3: Know, fairly successfully been playing within this federal regulatory structure. 313 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 3: Poly market has been playing outside of it. And for 314 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 3: a while the two platforms seemed to be growing sort 315 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 3: of in lockstep, you know. Poly Market started out with 316 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 3: a bit of a lead. It got a huge amount 317 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 3: of traction after the twenty twenty four presidential election, which 318 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 3: is successfully called for Donald Trump. 319 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 2: Cal She was a bit of a bit more. 320 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: It was. 321 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 3: It was a lesser known quantity at the time, I 322 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 3: had less name recognition. But starting around late twenty twenty five, 323 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 3: cal she actually started to eke ahead of poly market 324 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 3: when it comes to a relative share of trading volume 325 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 3: on prediction markets. 326 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 2: And as of last month, cal. 327 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 3: She was doing insanely more volume than poly market on 328 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 3: poly markets offshore and US APP combined. 329 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: And do you know what those volumes might be? Roughly, 330 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 1: I'll have to go back to. 331 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 2: Consult a chart in our. 332 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 4: It was for the month of May twice the amount 333 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 4: of volume almost twice, sorry, the amount of volume on 334 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,480 Speaker 4: col C versus polymarket. 335 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: That's really worrying. I mean, I think so looking this up, 336 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 1: it looks like seventeen billion dollars in the month of 337 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: May alone. We live in a godless society. It's a 338 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: statement I am saying, not the jeneralist in question. It's 339 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: very worrying. I find this whole thing quite worrying, not 340 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: just the gambling, but the financialization of everything. I don't 341 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: think it's good to gamble on every outcome personally, and 342 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: I worry. I worry about this spreading personally, and I 343 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 1: don't like it. Feels like it needs regulation in an 344 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,880 Speaker 1: extreme way that basically doesn't exist yet. 345 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 3: I mean, I can I can talk a little bit 346 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 3: about my own experiences here. You know, I started covering 347 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 3: Keilan's been covering this space a lot longer than I have. 348 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 3: I sort of jumped into it at the beginning of 349 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 3: this year, and as part of the process of growing 350 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 3: familiar with how prediction markets operate, I decided to watch 351 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 3: the state of the Union through the lens of a 352 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 3: prediction market live streamer who is live streaming the State 353 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 3: of the Union and talking about the bets that he 354 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 3: was placing on what President Trump would say during that speech. 355 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 2: And you know, I. 356 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 3: Think similar to watching live sports on which you've wagered, 357 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 3: it was simultaneously more exciting and I think also slightly 358 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 3: concerning the way that instead of sort of listening for 359 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,439 Speaker 3: the content of the speech, very rapidly for me, turned 360 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 3: into something closer to a game of sort of wondering 361 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 3: what the next word is, like what is he going 362 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 3: to say? And will it hit? Like will the bet hit? 363 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 3: And so I understand where the concerns that you're describing 364 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 3: emanate from. Certainly I would say also that you know, 365 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 3: there's a lot of people who point to prediction markets 366 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 3: as an extremely extremely legitimate financial tool and one that 367 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 3: institutions can increasingly take advantage of. 368 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: I mean, the only people I think that are taking 369 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: I think the only advantage being taken is off the customers, 370 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,719 Speaker 1: because I have to wonder how many people win, and 371 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 1: probably isn't very much. And the fact that they have 372 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: to resort to the fact they have to resort to 373 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: this kind of marketing suggests that the wins are not 374 00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: quite as common as they want you to believe. 375 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 4: Well, and that's one of a previous story that Catherine 376 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,919 Speaker 4: and I worked on together basically analyzed just that how 377 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 4: many people actually win on frediction markets, and what we 378 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 4: found was that, you know, about seventy percent of people 379 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 4: who had traded on polymarket lost money, and the losers 380 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 4: to winners on Calci, you know, was about two point 381 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 4: nine to one. And so you know, these while a 382 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 4: lot of them marketing is centered around these are prediction 383 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 4: markets where you can win money, in reality, most people 384 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 4: do not win money. 385 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 1: Kind of feels like the DraftKings stuff as well, the 386 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: sportscam claim where it's like, oh, yeah, of course it's 387 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: really easy to and this is not a statement I 388 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 1: align with it. It's easy, you just bet on what 389 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 1: the winning team will be. But the existence of spreads 390 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 1: and also the existence of the weird nomenclature that the 391 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: prediction markets use is how they get you. Like I 392 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: remember with a camp I was talking about with Nick 393 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: Devoor and Rebecca and Garena from Baron's and it was 394 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: just like, yeah, the wording around Camone's potential death and 395 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,160 Speaker 1: then they just pulled the entire thing screwed a bunch 396 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: of people over and how they design, how they design 397 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: and they say what a win is seems to also 398 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: undermine people, right. 399 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:00,640 Speaker 4: And we've we've previously reported that, you know, the warding 400 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 4: for pretty much all of these prediction markets really matters. 401 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 4: And so there's you know, been a lot of people 402 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 4: who have reached out to us as journalists and said, 403 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 4: you know, I put money on this market understanding that 404 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 4: this is how it was structured, and then the resolution 405 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 4: was entirely unexpected or I don't think that it was 406 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 4: a proper resolution. And so, you know, especially for some 407 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 4: of these markets where it's not really a finite outcome, 408 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 4: or the rules might be written in a way where 409 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 4: there's potential for different interpretation, you know, there really is 410 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 4: a risk of you know, the market not going how 411 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 4: people who are betting understand it might. 412 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 3: Or maybe people can't even see the rules. The rules 413 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 3: are difficult to access in the first place. That was 414 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 3: the case of somebody we profiled for our last story 415 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 3: who wagered everything he had earned so far on prediction 416 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 3: markets and ended up losing it all and is now 417 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 3: living in a homeless shelter. 418 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: Classic gambler stuff as well, I mean it's even in Vegas. 419 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: I live in Vegas, and you walk around and even 420 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: there in like the gambling hub of everywhere, the airport 421 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: is full of the Hey, if you've got a gambling 422 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 1: problem called this number. Hey, gambling problems are scary gambling problem, 423 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 1: gambling problem next to a slot machine, of course, But 424 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like, probably due to a lack of 425 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: regulatory oversight, that there's the same alarm concern thought from 426 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: the people making these markets. Do they seem Have you 427 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: heard anything from them about concerns related to gambling addiction 428 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:30,640 Speaker 1: or anything like that. 429 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 3: So Kelsey fairly recently did add a some language related 430 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 3: to gambling addiction on its home page. It gave people 431 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 3: the option to exclude themselves from the website, which is 432 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 3: another common feature that many gambling apps have. 433 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 1: What does it? What does that mean? 434 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 3: Self seclusion is if somebody feels that they have a 435 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,360 Speaker 3: gambling problem, they can ask to be banned from from 436 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 3: the website, from the gambling app, from the casino of 437 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 3: You know, it's not really a nuclear option, but it's 438 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 3: a tool that people who are managing a gambling addiction 439 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 3: can use if they feel like they're They're gambling has 440 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 3: gotten out of hand. You know, I think that these platforms, 441 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 3: they don't conceive of themselves as gambling. They conceive of 442 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 3: themselves as trading. This is, you know, in their minds, 443 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 3: more akin to day trading or you know, trading in 444 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 3: currencies than it is to gambling. 445 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,439 Speaker 1: Question, so this is hopefully this is a no. But 446 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 1: I know what I had to Refasan and Caleb Wilson 447 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 1: on talking about sports gambling a few months ago. Apparently 448 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: DraftKings in the like, So that's last year DraftKings in 449 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: the like they have like an account manager that will 450 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 1: actually work with significant betters. Do you know if such 451 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: thing exists with Calcium Polymarket? Do they have high rollers 452 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 1: that they covet? Is that something I don't even mean influencers. 453 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:52,479 Speaker 4: I don't know the answer to this. 454 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: I hope the answer is no. 455 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 3: That's that's not something that I have heard about. You know, 456 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 3: what I can say from our own reporting is that 457 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 3: both platforms seem intent on you know, recruiting college students, 458 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 3: and poly Market in particular has set up relationships with 459 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 3: college clubs fraternities, offering them you know, payments in exchange 460 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 3: for signing their classmates up to the site, so I 461 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:18,720 Speaker 3: would I would. 462 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 1: Say, it's tell me more about that. 463 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:27,680 Speaker 3: What This was a story that I reported with colleagues, 464 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 3: including my colleague Kevin Dugan back in I believe it 465 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 3: was March. It was about both platforms efforts to sign 466 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 3: up college students. And you know, some great reporting that 467 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 3: Kevin brought to the story was about Polymarket's efforts to 468 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 3: recruit students at Columbia University. And they signed this partnership 469 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 3: with a fraternity at Columbia, and in exchange for every 470 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 3: student that members of that fraternity signed up, the fraternity 471 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,119 Speaker 3: got some money. And at the end of it there 472 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 3: was a big sort of Polymarket funded party. The fraternity 473 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 3: got a plaque that said, you know that they were 474 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,800 Speaker 3: the first member of the poly Market Pledge class. And 475 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 3: you know, a lawsuit that was filed last week made 476 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 3: similar allegations pertaining to Polymarkers activities on other campuses. 477 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: Have you heard about anything else like that with Calshief 478 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 1: perhaps or is it just is were those learning events. 479 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 3: CALCI had some much smaller, much less well funded partnerships 480 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:33,040 Speaker 3: with campus groups. I would say Polymarket is the prime 481 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:37,160 Speaker 3: mover in that space when it comes to recruiting college students. 482 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: Getting kids into gambling. That's my statement. This is all 483 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 1: truly horrible. Have you So the one thing as we 484 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 1: wrap up here, one thing that I keep coming back 485 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: to is are there not guidelines around truth and advertising 486 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: that these crossover with? 487 00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, so the Federal Trade Commission, which got advertising, does 488 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 4: have rules that require that advertisements be truthful and accurate. 489 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 4: And then the CFTC also requires that you know, marketing 490 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 4: and that information not be this active. So there are 491 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 4: laws from at least two federal regulators that you know, 492 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 4: do touch on how prediction markets market themselves to the public. 493 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,920 Speaker 1: That's but they don't appear to I just I keep 494 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 1: thinking about these videos, and I've had the animated gift 495 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: just in the corner as I talk to you, and 496 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: I'm just I don't see how there's not anything being 497 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: done about this, because even in a very conservative government, 498 00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 1: this is a kind of vice that could genuine in 499 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 1: my opinion, could genuinely cause a form of financial crisis 500 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: with young people, especially at a time when young people 501 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 1: have trouble accumulating wealth. 502 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, we don't know like entirely what's happening 503 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 4: on a regulatory fund. Again, we've reported that the CFTC 504 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 4: has some sort of investigation ongoing into Polymarket, although we 505 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 4: don't know the scope or details of that, And just 506 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 4: from you know, myself covering crypto for the last many years, 507 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 4: you know, often federal inquiry is when they happen, can 508 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 4: take many years. And so I think, you know, a 509 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 4: lot of a lot of these platforms are very new, 510 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 4: and so I don't think we necessarily know, you know, how, 511 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 4: if and how from avacuatory perspective, things might unfold. 512 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 3: I should add here as well that you know, both 513 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 3: Polymarket and its primary competitor, Calcy have ties to the 514 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 3: White House in the form of involvement from Donald Trump Junior. 515 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 3: So Donald Trump Junior is a strategic advisor to cal 516 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,960 Speaker 3: she he is, through an investment fund UH an investor 517 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:53,239 Speaker 3: in Polymarket. We don't have any reporting to suggest that 518 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 3: that has played any kind of role in the regulator's 519 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 3: willingness or unwillingness to take on prediction markets. 520 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 2: But I think that you know, that's important to mention here. 521 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I also I will say I would 522 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 1: buy that they like doing this because it makes things 523 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: easier for them. But I also think there's just no 524 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 1: regulatory enforcement at the moment. It's just like it feels 525 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: we're just in a regulatory vacuum where the damage is 526 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 1: going to come not so much from what happens, but 527 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 1: what doesn't happen. What there isn't an aggress Like we 528 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: don't like the FTC could cut in here at some point. 529 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: I don't know, it feels that the SEC could do something, 530 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: But to your point earlier around crypto, it feels that 531 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 1: when Gary Gensler left the SEC, that was kind of 532 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: the end of any serious crypto regulation anyway, which would 533 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: have likely led to regulating this. Yeah. 534 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 3: I mean, we're obviously extremely interested in what, if any 535 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 3: actions regulators will take on this, and we plan to 536 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 3: continue reporting and try to find out more about what's 537 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 3: going on behind the scenes here. 538 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, any closing thoughts, anything left off from the 539 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: industry that I haven't gone over because this has been 540 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 1: wonderful and also truly darkened my heart, Like I'm gonna 541 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: need to take a walk around the floor. 542 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:11,840 Speaker 2: Oh and I'm so sorry I hear that. 543 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 1: No, No, it's not your fault. It's been a very 544 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: entertaining episode, but just this whole story is so grim. 545 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 4: It's it's it's a feeling I understand. I mean, I 546 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 4: think what what really like stuck with me through all 547 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 4: of this reporting was like just how good the videos 548 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 4: were at reporting to be on CALLI market And yeah, 549 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 4: I like it gave me a bunch of anxiety for 550 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 4: you know, family members who are younger and even myself, 551 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 4: but more than you know, like how hard this is 552 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 4: to actually know is what you're watching, you know, truly 553 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 4: something real or is it, you know, deceptive in some 554 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 4: sort of manner. And so that's that's what that's been 555 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 4: what's stuck with me. 556 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, it does feel like social media is becoming increasingly 557 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: fake in that way. 558 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 3: Go ahead, Yeah, I would, I would underscore what Caitlin said. 559 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 3: That is also something that has really been resonating with me. 560 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 3: And I would just add that, you know, if any 561 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 3: of your listeners have experiences with prediction markets, we'd love 562 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,239 Speaker 3: to hear from them, and our contact information is on 563 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 3: our author pages on WSJ dot com. 564 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: Well as we wrap up, when where can people find you? 565 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 2: Find us? 566 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 3: In the Wall Street Journal if you're if you're a 567 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 3: print head, you know, we still publish in print, but 568 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 3: otherwise it's it's WSJ dot com. 569 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 4: We live in on social media right now, so you 570 00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 4: can give. 571 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 1: Us two Yeah, where are you at? You on Twitter 572 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,960 Speaker 1: and Blue Skull just Twitter, Where can we find you? 573 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 3: I'm on Twitter at by k Long and on Blue 574 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 3: sky at you know, I don't. 575 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 2: I don't remember. 576 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: My book. 577 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,440 Speaker 4: Of my socials is Cetra, so I like should be 578 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 4: about like Kaylin has. 579 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 3: Kaitlin has the best nominative determinism initials of all time. 580 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,160 Speaker 3: Her initials are CEO and she is our boss. 581 00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 4: No, Neil is our boss. 582 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: Big shot to Neil for finding POI market, I am, 583 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 1: of course said zechon. I'll be back with a monologue 584 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 1: on Friday. You can of course bet on this on goot. 585 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: Each goot is worth a thousand slubs, so make sure 586 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: to invest your slubs based on the number of times 587 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 1: I said THEE in this episode. That will of course 588 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 1: funnel into a It's an account in the Cayman Islands 589 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 1: I have. It's fully legal. I've checked with many lawyers, 590 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 1: several of which haven't been disbarred. This has, of course 591 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 1: been Better Offline. I am your host at Zetron. Thank 592 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 1: you for listening. Thank you for listening to Better Offline 593 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song 594 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,800 Speaker 1: is Mattosowski. You can check out more of his music 595 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: and audio projects at Mattasowski dot com m A T 596 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:52,160 Speaker 1: T O. S O w Ski dot com. You can 597 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 1: email me at easy at Better offline dot com or 598 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 1: visit better Offline dot com to find more podcast links 599 00:33:57,240 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: and of course, my newsletter. I also really recommend you 600 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 1: go to chat dot Where's your heead dot at to 601 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: visit the discord, and go to our slash Better Offline 602 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: to check out I'll Reddit. Thank you so much for listening. 603 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,720 Speaker 2: Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. 604 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: For more from cool Zone Media, visit our website Coolzonemedia 605 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 1: dot com, or check 606 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 3: Us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever 607 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:20,840 Speaker 3: you get your podcasts.