WEBVTT - China:  An Ugly Picture.  Josh Rogin Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>Come on, man, they can't even figure out how to

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<v Speaker 1>deal with they the fact that they have this great

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<v Speaker 1>division between the China Sea and the mountains in the east,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, in the west. They can't figure out how

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna deal with the corruption that exists within the system.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, they're not bad folks. Folks, but

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<v Speaker 1>guess what they're not. They're they're not not not competition

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<v Speaker 1>for us. I could get hung up on that astounding

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<v Speaker 1>mishmash of half formed thoughts from a couple of years ago,

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<v Speaker 1>but I won't. It's a nice little introduction to the

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<v Speaker 1>topic of China, the US, our relationship, et cetera, and

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss that who could be better than Josh Rogan,

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<v Speaker 1>Global Opinions columnists with The Washington Post, author of Chaos

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<v Speaker 1>under Heaven, Trump she in the Battle for the twenty Century. Josh,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you great? Joe, great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you very much. Yeah, it's always terrific when we

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<v Speaker 1>get a chance to talk to you. Hey, before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into some of the Biden administration versus China stuff

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<v Speaker 1>that you've been writing about lately, what are your impressions

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<v Speaker 1>of how the Olympics have unfolded thus far going into them,

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<v Speaker 1>Jack and I were discussing is this going to glorify China?

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<v Speaker 1>And and you know in the way the nine Olympics

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<v Speaker 1>really bought Hitler time. Um, is she going to get

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<v Speaker 1>what he wants out of these Olympics or will it

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<v Speaker 1>more focus on the horrors and evil of China. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your impression so far? Well, I don't know about you,

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<v Speaker 1>but what I've seen is a lot of actually good coverage,

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<v Speaker 1>not by NBC, particularly of the fact that China is

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<v Speaker 1>becoming a genocidal police state that operates like a mafia

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<v Speaker 1>organization and is trying to silence everyone, both in China

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<v Speaker 1>and around the world. Right to the ges thing thought

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<v Speaker 1>this was gonna be his best, you know, world stage,

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<v Speaker 1>that he thought this was going to be the chance

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<v Speaker 1>for him to burnish China's image. And from what I

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<v Speaker 1>can tell, all he's done is piste off countries all

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<v Speaker 1>over the world. There was the thing with the Indian UH.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember the Indian UM diplomatic team Withdrew the day before,

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<v Speaker 1>because they actually put an Indian UH Chinese military officer

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<v Speaker 1>who killed Indians into the Torch ceremony, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they piste off the Indian just for no reason the

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<v Speaker 1>day before the Olympics. Then they had a weaker like

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<v Speaker 1>the torch at the opening ceremony and everybody was like, Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>that's really passed up. That's a that's just a sociopathic

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<v Speaker 1>thing to do, you know. And then there was the

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<v Speaker 1>punk Shue mysterious interview where she pops out in the

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<v Speaker 1>middle of the first week of the Olympics and everyone's like,

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<v Speaker 1>oh wait, she's in a lot of trouble. This is

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<v Speaker 1>really creepy, and one by one by one, China's effort

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of show their best put their best foot

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<v Speaker 1>forward backfire. In my opinion, I don't know if if

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<v Speaker 1>that is that time everyone else happen. To me, it

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<v Speaker 1>seems like a total disaster for the Chinese Communist Party, um,

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<v Speaker 1>because this is their best behavior. This is when they're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to show us that they're not a horrible, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>human rights abuser, and every single step of the way

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<v Speaker 1>they just seemed to be reinforcing that for you. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's snow sucks according to everybody participating in the Olympics.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's that and their treatment of the Olympic athletes,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're they're making them download an app that monitors

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<v Speaker 1>all of their speech, and then you know, forget about

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<v Speaker 1>like the fact that they put the the some of

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<v Speaker 1>the events in the middle of what looks like a

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<v Speaker 1>dystopian nuclear waste land, and you know, and then in

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<v Speaker 1>the lockdowns and the repression and the silencing of all

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<v Speaker 1>the journalists and the threatening of all the dissidents. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a pretty ugly picture. I think that, at least

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<v Speaker 1>that's what I see. I don't know about it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we've been rooting for it to be as ugly as possible,

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<v Speaker 1>just because to whatever extent Americans and people around the

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<v Speaker 1>world can recognize the evil and the power of the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese regime, all the better for humanity. I just I

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<v Speaker 1>was scared to hear your take, because you know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>been rooting so fervently for that. I didn't want to,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, assume that my wishes were being the father

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<v Speaker 1>of my thoughts. H you know, not to completely, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>spoil your enjoyment. But it does seem that the actual

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<v Speaker 1>corporations don't actually give a crap one where or the other,

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<v Speaker 1>and none of the sponsors have done anything to stand

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<v Speaker 1>up for human rights. The International Olympic Committee helped the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese Communist Party make a hostage video with punc Hua

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<v Speaker 1>and then they, you know, refused to even meet with

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<v Speaker 1>the human rights groups. You know, I've been dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of these debanton groups. We grow groups. Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Konger's Taiwan needs a lot of Chinese discident groups, and

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<v Speaker 1>they say that the corporations won't even give them the

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<v Speaker 1>time and day. So I think there's an awakening in

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<v Speaker 1>the public space right and regular ordinary people realize we've

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<v Speaker 1>got a problem here. But for right now, the lure

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<v Speaker 1>of the Chinese market is still forcing all these corporations,

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<v Speaker 1>especially American corporations, to shut up in self center. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's like sort of the other side of that coin.

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<v Speaker 1>Josh Rogan of The Washington Post is on the line, Josh,

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<v Speaker 1>I wish I could remember who wrote the piece. I

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<v Speaker 1>read it over the weekend. It was going through some

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<v Speaker 1>of the challenges that the Chinese Communists are gonna face

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<v Speaker 1>going forward, and she's pain specifically as he tries to

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<v Speaker 1>recommunize China. Turns out the guys an actual communist and

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<v Speaker 1>that combined because that's gonna choke off the engine of

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese rise to the extent that he gets it

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<v Speaker 1>to go forward. You combine that with demographic problems with

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<v Speaker 1>UH you know, some dissident problems a A, a ceasing

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<v Speaker 1>of the rapid rise of standards of living in China UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and that he really faces some serious headwinds in the

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<v Speaker 1>next five ten years. I realize it's tough to see

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<v Speaker 1>inside the Chinese Communist Party, But do you agree with

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<v Speaker 1>that or do you think he's pretty solid at this point? Yeah? No,

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<v Speaker 1>I I think that's right. I think two is gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be a very tough year, fugiating thing if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it, because he's gonna get his coronation UH to be,

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<v Speaker 1>to get his third term, to make himself the emperor,

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<v Speaker 1>to make himself bizarre. At the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to November at the party conference, so he

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<v Speaker 1>really can't afford to mess up from now until November.

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<v Speaker 1>So he isn't a tough ut for this immediate near term. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest problem he has is that he's got the

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<v Speaker 1>zero COVID policy, which seemed like a good idea with Delta,

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<v Speaker 1>it is actually a terrible idea when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>Omicron because they can't open up their economy. So how

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<v Speaker 1>are they supposed to recover if everyone's lockdown forever because

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<v Speaker 1>they don't want even one case of COVID, which is insane.

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<v Speaker 1>And then if he opens up, he's gonna have a

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<v Speaker 1>billion people who are gonna get O Macron in two weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>That's also gonna be a problem. So there, he's got

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of troubles. But what that says to me

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<v Speaker 1>is that he's actually even more dangerous because he's actually

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<v Speaker 1>got more incentive to do do so, you know, to consolidate power,

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<v Speaker 1>to crack down on his rivals, to murder anyone who

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<v Speaker 1>stands in his way, and of course that's what he's doing.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk a little bit about the Biden administration

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<v Speaker 1>their China policy. I don't want to label you as anything.

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<v Speaker 1>You're a journalist and a writer. We can fairly be

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<v Speaker 1>labeled pretty hardcore China hawks around here, and we tend

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<v Speaker 1>to agree with you a lot. Um. I've been reasonably

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<v Speaker 1>impressed with the Biden administrations dance towards China. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you think about that? Yeah? No, I mean I've been

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<v Speaker 1>called hawf. I like to think I'm a realist, but

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<v Speaker 1>I guess everyone thinks they're a realist, right. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the bottom line is I believe that the Chinese Communist

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<v Speaker 1>Party is increasingly aggressive and repressive and expansionist and interfering

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<v Speaker 1>in our free and open societies, and we need to

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<v Speaker 1>do more. That's my view. That's what I wrote my

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<v Speaker 1>book about. Right, we need to do more to confront

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<v Speaker 1>this problem that we all have. And you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden team came in. The people who are actually working

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<v Speaker 1>on this agree with that. That's the That's what I

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<v Speaker 1>wrote yesterday in the Washington Post that there's a team

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<v Speaker 1>of people inside the Biden administration who agree with that

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<v Speaker 1>that we need to do more. They don't they don't

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<v Speaker 1>like to be called Trump Light or whatever you name

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<v Speaker 1>you want to put on it, but the fact is

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<v Speaker 1>that they agree that the China problem is getting worse. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>The problem is they don't run everything, and they don't

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<v Speaker 1>run like the West Wing, and they don't run the

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<v Speaker 1>Treasury Department that are run the Commerce Department, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>too slow. So I feel like it's like a you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump actually did something really good that he doesn't get

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<v Speaker 1>credit for, which is he changed our approach to China

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<v Speaker 1>in a fundamental way, and that by an administration agrees

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<v Speaker 1>with that. They looked at the same set of facts

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<v Speaker 1>that came to the same set of conclusions. So they're

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<v Speaker 1>keeping that direction. They're just going too slow. So final question,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can go on as long as you like

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<v Speaker 1>on this topic. Because as I was boring friends to

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<v Speaker 1>death at the dinner the other night, I said, the

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<v Speaker 1>story of the next fifty years is the United States

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<v Speaker 1>of America. Heroin addict. If you will giving up the

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<v Speaker 1>China habit. Commercially, our corporations are economy, are cheap underwear

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<v Speaker 1>at Walmart, etcetera. Because unless there's a serious change in

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese leadership and culture, which I think is highly unlikely,

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<v Speaker 1>we are going to slowly realize that we are in

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<v Speaker 1>We are enslaved to a brutal, cruel drug dealer. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if you accept that metaphor at all, are we at

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<v Speaker 1>the like I gotta stop doing drug state? Are we

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<v Speaker 1>starting our rehab? Are we are we barely even aware

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<v Speaker 1>we have a problem? Where are we? You know? That's

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<v Speaker 1>the interest brain there, Joe. You know, I like to

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<v Speaker 1>think the Chinese. I like to think of the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>Communist Party as a mafia organization okay, because it operates

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<v Speaker 1>like one. It's basically a big extortion ring. If they

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<v Speaker 1>go around the world and they say the countries, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>nice country got the would be a shame or something

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<v Speaker 1>happened to it. Okay, pay up, and that's what they do,

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<v Speaker 1>and they do that inside China. To now, what we

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<v Speaker 1>are is we are the mafia organizations, lawyers and financers

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<v Speaker 1>and accountants and business partners, and we are pumping money

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<v Speaker 1>and technology and know how into this system which they

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<v Speaker 1>are of course using to advance their criminal enterprise, which

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<v Speaker 1>in the end is in dat us, which in the

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<v Speaker 1>in the end means us harm. Okay. And in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>seventy two, when the idea was that China could be

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<v Speaker 1>part of our system and if we just gave them

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<v Speaker 1>all the money and took all their money and integrated

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<v Speaker 1>them as much as possible, that they would company like us,

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<v Speaker 1>that they would turn into us. That was the idea

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<v Speaker 1>in nineteen seventy two. Two, that doesn't make any sense.

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<v Speaker 1>We just have to see them for what they are.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't mean we have to go to war, doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean we have to decouple all the way. But we

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<v Speaker 1>have to realize that we're dealing with a criminal organization.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like if the Gambinos, you know, ran a country

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<v Speaker 1>and it was the richest country in the world. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what it is. So what that says to me is

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<v Speaker 1>that we have to treat it like a law enforcement problem,

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<v Speaker 1>which means we have to punish the people who are

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<v Speaker 1>helping the drug deals. Okay, the drug dealers, lawyers, the

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<v Speaker 1>drug dealers, accountants, and they are dealing drugs because they

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<v Speaker 1>are actually sending tons offense at all into our country.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's just one of the problems right. More broadly,

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<v Speaker 1>we just have to stop helping our adversary build the

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<v Speaker 1>machine that's pointed at us, because it's crazy, okay. And

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<v Speaker 1>the reason that Americans are doing that is because they're

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<v Speaker 1>getting paid on both sides of the Pacific. So until

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<v Speaker 1>we change those incentives, we're not going to change our

0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:46.880
<v Speaker 1>corporations and our Wall Street firms, and our schools and

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<v Speaker 1>our Hollywood theaters who are all seeing it as better

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<v Speaker 1>for them to work with our enemy instead of protecting

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<v Speaker 1>us from our enemy. And that's the big change that

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<v Speaker 1>has to happen, right. And you have a better metaphor

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<v Speaker 1>than I do, uh that I love the mob betaphor,

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<v Speaker 1>because they don't just want to sell drugs, they want

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<v Speaker 1>to own everything. They want to own all the businesses,

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<v Speaker 1>and own all the towns and own all the people. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, final thought and reading your stuff in Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Pillsbury's hundred Dear Marathon and stuff like I've been, I've

0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:17.000
<v Speaker 1>become aware of and this is an illustration of how

0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:21.120
<v Speaker 1>dopey and naive Americans can be. From ninety two to recently,

0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:28.959
<v Speaker 1>um that deception is is celebrated in China. Fooling your

0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:35.520
<v Speaker 1>adversary into thinking you're not an adversary, feigning weakness, feigning friendship.

0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:40.079
<v Speaker 1>Those are not seen as despicable, they're they're enshrined in

0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.679
<v Speaker 1>some of the greatest values in Chinese society, the thirty

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.600
<v Speaker 1>six Strategies, which is an ancient text, and the rest

0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:50.040
<v Speaker 1>of it. Who knew, you know, Joe. I don't think

0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:55.119
<v Speaker 1>any one culture or anyone's society as the cornerstone on deception,

0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:57.240
<v Speaker 1>you know what I mean. I think it's part of diplomacy.

0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.960
<v Speaker 1>It's part and I wouldn't want to single out China

0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 1>in society is being responsed because again, you wouldn't blame

0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.640
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese people. The Italian people for the mafia, right,

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.400
<v Speaker 1>So you wouldn't blame the Chinese people for the CCP. Right.

0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>The CCP is a unique thing. And it's not really

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 1>about Chinese culture. It's not really about the Chinese nation.

0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 1>It's about this party, which is a criminal organization in

0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:18.679
<v Speaker 1>and of itself, and that's the problem. And you know,

0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 1>we have to focus on that, okay. And you know

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:22.960
<v Speaker 1>what I say to that is like, yeah, of course

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.679
<v Speaker 1>they don't want us to focus on that. That's what

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:27.200
<v Speaker 1>That's how they're different from Putin. Putin wants everyone to

0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:29.960
<v Speaker 1>focus on putin Jing thing, wants everyone to focus on

0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.920
<v Speaker 1>anything but jing Ping because in order for them to

0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:35.080
<v Speaker 1>build a machine that's pointed at us, we need to

0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:37.480
<v Speaker 1>be looking the other way. So that's that is of

0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:39.560
<v Speaker 1>course a forum of deception. But I don't blame China.

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.000
<v Speaker 1>I blame the c yeah, and fair enough. And and

0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:46.120
<v Speaker 1>it's funny because I don't see it in moral terms.

0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.959
<v Speaker 1>I see it in strategic terms. Um. And And if

0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 1>it came off as like a moral judgment, I didn't

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.000
<v Speaker 1>mean it that way because I'm just aware of negotiating

0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.200
<v Speaker 1>styles across different cultures are very different. Um. If you're

0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:00.679
<v Speaker 1>negotiating with somebody from Iran, say a Persian person is

0:13:00.760 --> 0:13:03.520
<v Speaker 1>sometimes they refer to themselves. They have a different view

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>of honesty and call it cleverness than some other cultures do.

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 1>But I'm afraid we're crazy up against a break, Josh

0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:13.400
<v Speaker 1>Rogan to The Washington Post. Josh, it's always stimulating. Thanks

0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>so much for the time. We appreciate it. Never on

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>any time, and I hope we can talk against soon. Josh,

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.079
<v Speaker 1>the author of Chaos under Heaven Trump she in the

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:23.160
<v Speaker 1>Battle for the twenty one Century Great Book