WEBVTT - This Is What It Takes to Get a Data Center Financed

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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<v Speaker 2>Tracy, you know, we've obviously been doing a lot about

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<v Speaker 2>data centers, but one thing that's sort of becoming interesting

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<v Speaker 2>is they just seem so complicated. There are so many

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<v Speaker 2>different moving parts. And I don't mean like technically complicated,

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<v Speaker 2>although that's part of it, but they really are this

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<v Speaker 2>sort of weird thing where they're a high tech thing.

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<v Speaker 2>They have the most advanced chips, or at least some

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<v Speaker 2>of them have the most advanced.

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<v Speaker 4>Chips in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>They're real estate plays and we talk about securitization and

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<v Speaker 2>so forth, and then they have to figure out all

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<v Speaker 2>this stuff of how they're going to connect to the

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<v Speaker 2>grid and maybe they're going to build their own power

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<v Speaker 2>plant inside the data center, et cetera. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of moving parts.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's a couple of things here. So number one,

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<v Speaker 3>it does seem to be a complex space. And whenever

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<v Speaker 3>I think about how some of these things are being financed,

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<v Speaker 3>I get that, what's the meme with the guy standing

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<v Speaker 3>in front of the board with like all the papers

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<v Speaker 3>and directions. It all feels a little circular sometimes that

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<v Speaker 3>whole ecosystem. But the other thing is just the sheer

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<v Speaker 3>scale of the like financing requirement for doing this. So

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<v Speaker 3>I was reading a Morgan Stanley report. I think it

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<v Speaker 3>came out over the summer. They were forecasting two point

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<v Speaker 3>nine trillion of global data centers spend through twenty twenty eight.

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<v Speaker 3>And just for context, total CAPEC spending by all companies

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<v Speaker 3>in the S and P five hundred in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 3>four was nine hundred and fifty billion.

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<v Speaker 2>It's crazy, yeah, And by the words, are the numbers bug?

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<v Speaker 3>Well? The other big question is if you actually stack

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<v Speaker 3>that up against existing revenue from generative AI, existing revenues

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<v Speaker 3>like sixteen billion, right, So there's a bit of a

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<v Speaker 3>gap there that needs to be filled.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, completely correct. The other thing that strikes me is

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<v Speaker 2>very interesting and tricky is you have these projects and

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<v Speaker 2>put there's big capital outlay, capital commitments, et cetera. And

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<v Speaker 2>then the timelines like oh, when do you get connected

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<v Speaker 2>to the grid, When does that turbine for your insight

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<v Speaker 2>gas generator get actually get delivered? Maybe twenty thirty et cetera.

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<v Speaker 2>So it feels like, I get the pressure. You're dealing

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<v Speaker 2>with very uncertain timelines, and so how you establish that

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<v Speaker 2>in the language so everyone feels protected, Like, what if

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<v Speaker 2>you could ever get connected, what if anything could happen?

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<v Speaker 5>Right?

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<v Speaker 3>What are the expectations for when this actually starts to

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<v Speaker 3>pay off.

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<v Speaker 2>When does it payoff, what are the obligations of the tenant,

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<v Speaker 2>et cetera. We don't really know anyway, I'm sure it's

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<v Speaker 2>different number one, So many more questions for just scratching

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<v Speaker 2>the surface.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely, And you know, there have been some interesting

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<v Speaker 3>things happening. So a lot of the activity has been

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<v Speaker 3>done in the private market. But obviously AI players and

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<v Speaker 3>companies have a lot of different options. So they could

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<v Speaker 3>go to securitized markets, and I think we've been seeing

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<v Speaker 3>some CMBs and ABS deals there, private credit I mentioned

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<v Speaker 3>private equity bank lending, or they can go the public

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<v Speaker 3>route into corporate bonds, and so I'm really curious how

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of these players are choosing between those options.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'm really excited to say we have the perfect guest,

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<v Speaker 2>someone who is really at the intersection of sort of

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<v Speaker 2>every one of the things that these data centers are

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<v Speaker 2>also at the intersection We're going to be speaking to

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<v Speaker 2>Travis Wafford. He's a partner at the law firm Baker Bods.

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<v Speaker 2>He is the chair of the corporate department based in Houston.

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<v Speaker 2>He works on all of these things. He can tell

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<v Speaker 2>us what's in the details of all these agreements. So, Travis,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you so much for coming on. Odd Love's great

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<v Speaker 2>to have you here in studio.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you give us just a quick overview? What's

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<v Speaker 2>your role at Baker Boss? What do you focus on?

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<v Speaker 2>What do you call it a practice area? Is that

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<v Speaker 2>a legal for a legal term?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So I'm a deal lawyer. I help people build, buy, finance,

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<v Speaker 5>and sell projects and companies. And so we take multi

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<v Speaker 5>disciplinary teams and put them together in order to actually

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<v Speaker 5>make people's dreams. The reality is the way I like

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<v Speaker 5>to explain it. The idea is somebody comes to us

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<v Speaker 5>with a very complex project and they need an integrated solution,

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<v Speaker 5>legal solution to that problem. So you want to build

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<v Speaker 5>the data center, you've got power, you need people that

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<v Speaker 5>actually understand the air, the water, the interconnection with the fiber,

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<v Speaker 5>the interconnection with power, the land, everything else. And then

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<v Speaker 5>the finance layer on top of that we provide a

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<v Speaker 5>one stop shop for that.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so my question is how busy are you right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Are you just getting you know, requests flying at you constantly?

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, we are very busy, which is a good thing.

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<v Speaker 5>And it's a bad thing, right because your capacity constrain,

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<v Speaker 5>just like your clients are.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, my husband is a former lawyer, so I know

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<v Speaker 3>how bad it can be.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, But the good thing is they're interesting deals. It's

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<v Speaker 5>interesting stuff to work on. It's in the news on

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<v Speaker 5>Bloomberg as well, and that makes it fun.

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<v Speaker 2>It seems like a baker Bod's with like the long

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<v Speaker 2>history based in Houston, all the energy stuff. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>this is all sort of novel to everyone, right, especially

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<v Speaker 2>the generative AI data center Like that aspect is just

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of years old. Can you talk about when

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<v Speaker 2>there is a new thing that everyone gets excited about

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<v Speaker 2>that maybe even a couple of years ago no one

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<v Speaker 2>was talking about now, granted, I know data centers a

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<v Speaker 2>lot longer than a couple of years old, but the

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<v Speaker 2>explosion of interest, how do you build that sort of

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<v Speaker 2>team that understands all of the dimensions so that you

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<v Speaker 2>could provide that one stop shop service.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so it's a really good question. And you know,

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<v Speaker 5>I always go back to the expression there's nothing new

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<v Speaker 5>under the sun. When you actually think about what we're doing.

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<v Speaker 5>You're building a power project, you're building out a data center,

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<v Speaker 5>the powered shell or the powered land or the like.

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<v Speaker 4>People have been doing that before.

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<v Speaker 5>When you're financing these we're actually using a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>the same financing structures. It may not be exactly the same,

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<v Speaker 5>but it rhymes. So ten twenty years ago we were

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<v Speaker 5>doing whole business securitizations of cell towers, that same securitization

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<v Speaker 5>technology you moved forward to residential solar, and now you're

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<v Speaker 5>moving that same thing forward to CNBS and ABS of

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<v Speaker 5>the data centers. So they're very similar. The rating agencies

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<v Speaker 5>are very familiar with these things. You have to look

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<v Speaker 5>at a few different variables and understand them slightly differently,

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<v Speaker 5>but particularly energy infrastructure and telecom infrastructure. Those are two

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<v Speaker 5>things that we've been doing for decades.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, walk us through the differences then between say, you

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<v Speaker 3>know a cell tower ABS or I don't know, a

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<v Speaker 3>solar power ABS versus a data center ABS or CMBs.

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<v Speaker 5>Sure, so a cell tower ABS. Really when you're looking

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<v Speaker 5>at that, you just have the tower. It's on land.

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<v Speaker 5>You may have somebody that's coming along in order to

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<v Speaker 5>mow the lawn around it, but they don't have much

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of the actual equipment that's on top of

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<v Speaker 5>the cell tower. When you have a residential solar securitization,

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<v Speaker 5>you put the solar panel on top of somebody's roof.

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<v Speaker 5>You're contracting the cash flows off of that. Again, on

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<v Speaker 5>the cell tower, you're contracting the cash flows off of that.

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<v Speaker 5>You pull those together and then you put a bond

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<v Speaker 5>on top of it. With a data center securitization, what

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<v Speaker 5>you're doing there is you have the cash flow from

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<v Speaker 5>the data center lease. You have the cash flow from

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<v Speaker 5>other aspects of the business that may be going along

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<v Speaker 5>with that, like related to the power and some of

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<v Speaker 5>the additional services.

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<v Speaker 4>You pool those. You have long term contracted.

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<v Speaker 5>Cash flows, and then a rating agency can rate those

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<v Speaker 5>as well. But at the end of the day, you're

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<v Speaker 5>trying to make sure that you have a special purpose

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<v Speaker 5>vehicle that has all the assets that it needs within it.

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<v Speaker 5>You have an separate entity that's handling the billing and

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<v Speaker 5>the collection, an entity that's handling the operation and maintenance

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<v Speaker 5>of the asset, and that's supposed to be a standalone

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<v Speaker 5>product that can move at least the five to seven

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<v Speaker 5>years until you get to the anticipated payment date, and

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<v Speaker 5>often it's about a thirty year rated final maturity.

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<v Speaker 3>So I have a question, and it's come up a

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<v Speaker 3>couple times on previous podcasts, but you mentioned, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>having a special purpose vehicle for this. Sure, Why does

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<v Speaker 3>it seem that so many big tech companies who are

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<v Speaker 3>in the AI space, who are presumably very, very cash

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<v Speaker 3>rich and profitable, why are so many of them financing

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<v Speaker 3>off balance sheet?

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<v Speaker 5>They have better things to do with their money, so

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<v Speaker 5>the return on their invested capital is much better on

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<v Speaker 5>the tech side than it is on the infrastructure side.

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<v Speaker 5>Infrastructure is usually low margins, but the benefit with that

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<v Speaker 5>is it's long term, reliable, understood assets, such as again,

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<v Speaker 5>if you're doing a large energy project, or even the

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<v Speaker 5>poweredshell itself. It's land, it's a building, it's got the

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<v Speaker 5>fiber connection, it's got the power connection, and that's something

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<v Speaker 5>that can continue over a long period of time, Whereas

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<v Speaker 5>on the tech side, they make a lot more money

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<v Speaker 5>and have much greater margins, as we all.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, right, So this aspect of the business, which could

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<v Speaker 2>be very profitable, but it's stable, it's very predictable. It's like,

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<v Speaker 2>let's outsource this, Let's have some other entity house that risk.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the risks in data center finance when you

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<v Speaker 2>think about the other side and not the tech companies,

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<v Speaker 2>but the lenders to the SPV and we'll talk about

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<v Speaker 2>thefferent structures that the credit form can take. What are

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<v Speaker 2>the risks? You know, it's a fairly stable, long term thing,

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<v Speaker 2>but how can things go wrong?

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<v Speaker 5>So it depends on what exactly you're financing, right, So,

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<v Speaker 5>in a securitization and ABS, what you're doing is you

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<v Speaker 5>are financing the business of this PowerShell or turnkey solution.

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<v Speaker 5>The tenant quality is very important. Do I have somebody

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<v Speaker 5>that has the investment grade tenant quality or diversified pool

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<v Speaker 5>of high credit quality tenants who can actually be clear?

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<v Speaker 3>You're securitizing the cash flows from the data center leases, right, yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>So exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>So on an ABS, it's a focus on the business

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<v Speaker 5>of this data center. The actual lease is in the securitization,

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<v Speaker 5>and then that the hard assets are in there as well,

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<v Speaker 5>and a CMBs you have the lease as well, but

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<v Speaker 5>it's more focused on the mortgage. And then we have

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<v Speaker 5>credit tenant.

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<v Speaker 4>Leases as well, which are kind of directly to the tenant.

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<v Speaker 3>That's useful, thank you.

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<v Speaker 5>So risk associated with securitization are usually focus on the

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<v Speaker 5>tenant quality. They're focus on the term of the lease.

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<v Speaker 5>How long is the lease if you have a ten

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<v Speaker 5>or fifteen year lease. If you have a shorter term lease,

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<v Speaker 5>you're going to look a little bit more at well,

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<v Speaker 5>is this something that's going to need to be released

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<v Speaker 5>in that timeframe? What is the rate on the lease?

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<v Speaker 5>If it's a below market lease, it's much less likely

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<v Speaker 5>that somebody is going to want to get a new

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<v Speaker 5>lease and leave you. And then the facility itself. Is

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<v Speaker 5>the facility going to be able to withstand kind of

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<v Speaker 5>technology risk over a long period of time?

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<v Speaker 3>So how are people structuring the deals at the moment

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<v Speaker 3>to compensate for that risk? So you have the time mismatch,

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<v Speaker 3>you have maybe tenancy rollover risk as well. Are people

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<v Speaker 3>like adding extra credit protection or how are they making

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<v Speaker 3>these palatable to investors?

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<v Speaker 4>So one is.

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<v Speaker 5>The loan to value your advance rate. So typically if

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<v Speaker 5>you're looking for something that's an investment grade securitization, you're

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<v Speaker 5>going to have it around forty to fifty percent. The

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<v Speaker 5>structure of the bond itself will have a rated final

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<v Speaker 5>maturity that's much further out than the lease, maybe twenty

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<v Speaker 5>five thirty years, but you're anticipating that the full principal

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<v Speaker 5>amount of the bond would be able to be repaid

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<v Speaker 5>within five to seven years. But the lease itself is

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<v Speaker 5>a ten year lease or a fifteen year lease, and

0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.960
<v Speaker 5>then that can get reapt for another ten years on

0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:27.720
<v Speaker 5>top of that. So when you're looking at your cash flows,

0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:32.680
<v Speaker 5>the cash flows are going to support your ard prior

0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:36.640
<v Speaker 5>to even worrying wait aird the anticipated repayment date of

0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:39.600
<v Speaker 5>the bond, prior to even worrying about your release.

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:42.640
<v Speaker 2>So one of the things that sort of like people

0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:46.160
<v Speaker 2>tweet about and people even write about, including us, that

0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:49.720
<v Speaker 2>we've talked about even this whole thing about GPU life

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.839
<v Speaker 2>and some of these questions regarding the long term value

0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.240
<v Speaker 2>of the assets, and people like you know, like to claim, oh,

0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 2>they're not as going to be as valuable long term

0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 2>as people think. Does this come up in your work

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:02.600
<v Speaker 2>and what's really going on?

0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.320
<v Speaker 5>Sure, So it depends on what the financing structure is

0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 5>that you're using. So the GPU life itself is more

0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:14.440
<v Speaker 5>question on a private credit story or an equity. On

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.959
<v Speaker 5>the securitization side, they're more focused on the turnkey data

0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 5>center itself. The useful life comes up a lot when

0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:23.960
<v Speaker 5>you're doing the accounting, and that rolls through to the

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.280
<v Speaker 5>earnings per share of these public companies.

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.679
<v Speaker 4>You've got a useful life of a.

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.760
<v Speaker 5>Few years ago, it was three years for these GPUs.

0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.959
<v Speaker 5>Now some of them are using six years. If you're

0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:38.640
<v Speaker 5>doing straight line amortization over three years taken about a

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.840
<v Speaker 5>third off over six years, it's obviously less than that,

0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.400
<v Speaker 5>and so you have much less amortization depreciation expense on it.

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.320
<v Speaker 4>That helps your ranks for sure.

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 3>What's your impression of how private credit lenders have been

0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 3>handling the GPU aging problem so far, Like, are they

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:13.040
<v Speaker 3>conscious of it or are people still kind of basing

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 3>a lot of their expected cash flows off of GPUs

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 3>that last, you know, longer because they were previously being

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:21.559
<v Speaker 3>used in cloud computing or something like that.

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so they're very aware of it, particularly because if

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:27.880
<v Speaker 5>you look at the new in video had the H

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:30.200
<v Speaker 5>one hundreds and the H two hundreds that had come out.

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 5>Then it was the Blackwell the B one hundreds two hundreds,

0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.600
<v Speaker 5>and now Reuben's going to come after that, right, So

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 5>every two to three years you have these new chipsets

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.920
<v Speaker 5>and that it's almost like, do I want to be

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.680
<v Speaker 5>financing these laptops that you've got in front of me

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 5>for six years or seven years? What's the replacement cycle

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:52.760
<v Speaker 5>on that? So when do I need to get repaid

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 5>on my debt? The interesting part that comes into it

0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:00.839
<v Speaker 5>is it's not just one laptop. We're talking about entire

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 5>data centers full of these things, and that's in the

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 5>tens hundreds of millions of dollars. So how are you

0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 5>actually going to get your cash flow back when maybe

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:14.240
<v Speaker 5>those aren't going to be used for training the same way.

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.480
<v Speaker 5>The reality though, is the useful life of these and

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:23.240
<v Speaker 5>the economic life is not just that initial usage.

0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.040
<v Speaker 4>You can use it for other things.

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 5>So starting out with training, needing to get trained done

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 5>as quickly as possible. If the data center is well

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 5>located in Virginia or another Tier one location, maybe there's

0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 5>inference if it's close to a city or other location.

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:44.960
<v Speaker 5>And then for the CPUs data centers that have those,

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 5>you can use them for compute and analytics and other

0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 5>technologies and use cases that maybe that one what you

0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 5>originally underwrote, but you knew that that was coming down

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 5>the line.

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 2>Since you mentioned Virginia, can you talk about where we

0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 2>are in twenty twenty five with data center siting and

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:06.120
<v Speaker 2>picking locations. So I know that there's tons around northern Virginia,

0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 2>and I know that there's some huge projects in the

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.800
<v Speaker 2>middle of nowhere in Texas where they're not going to

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 2>offend any neighbors or whatever, etc. But what are the

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.120
<v Speaker 2>big themes that companies are thinking about right now when

0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 2>they think about location.

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 5>Yeah. So one of the great things about Virginia is

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 5>connectivity to the subse cables, so getting to Europe, getting

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 5>to Africa, getting to other locations and the rest of

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 5>the United States. There's a great regulatory environment there in

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:37.960
<v Speaker 5>terms of power, in terms of actually building out the

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 5>infrastructure there and other data centers so that you can

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 5>have I hate to use the word co located, but

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 5>connectivity within other data centers makes it very attractive. The

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 5>problem is it's saturated. It's a very saturated market. And

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.480
<v Speaker 5>so if you want to build that next large giant

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 5>data center and you need power, or you need water,

0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 5>or you need other parts of the infrastructure, and you

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.720
<v Speaker 5>need to do it quickly, You're often going to look elsewhere.

0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 5>That's one of the reasons that Texas and ur God

0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 5>have become so attractive.

0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.880
<v Speaker 3>So one of the things we hear constantly is that

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.040
<v Speaker 3>chips and financing are not necessarily the big choke points

0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:16.960
<v Speaker 3>for doing this. It's more the power. And I guess

0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 3>I'm curious, is it really a power shortage problem or

0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.960
<v Speaker 3>is it more the distribution of power is not in

0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.800
<v Speaker 3>the places where these data centers you know, want to

0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 3>be because of convenience, like colocation. It's you can say

0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:30.160
<v Speaker 3>both as well.

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it definitely is both. I will say though that

0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:38.440
<v Speaker 5>with power its interconnection. It's getting that actual permission both

0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.120
<v Speaker 5>for the load, so the data center itself is drawing

0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 5>power from the grid and for the generation and those

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 5>are two separate interconnections on these larger facilities that you're

0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:52.520
<v Speaker 5>going to be getting at relatively the same time. And

0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:54.800
<v Speaker 5>if you can't have both, then you're probably not going

0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:58.080
<v Speaker 5>to be able to support such a large facility. So

0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.640
<v Speaker 5>on the generationation side, if you're trying to get interconnection,

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:07.200
<v Speaker 5>you go through a long process potentially with FURK and

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 5>with your ISO or rto you know, ERCOT if you're

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:14.760
<v Speaker 5>in Texas to do typically at this scale, like the

0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 5>large data center scale, like a five year process in

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 5>order to get that generation approved and interconnected, and.

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.639
<v Speaker 3>It's that's just the approval five years and then you

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:27.200
<v Speaker 3>have to actually do the connection.

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:28.399
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and then you got to build it.

0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:28.800
<v Speaker 2>Wow.

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 5>The fun part about that is that timeline. A lot

0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:34.000
<v Speaker 5>of people walk in and they think, oh, I've heard

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 5>that it's going to be eighteen to thirty six months

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:39.440
<v Speaker 5>in order for me to get this done. And then

0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 5>a month or two goes by and they get a

0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:44.000
<v Speaker 5>new date and it's been pushed out. And then a

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 5>few months go by and they get a new date

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.080
<v Speaker 5>and it's been pushed out. And one of the analogies

0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 5>we use is like you're waiting in the airport to

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:52.120
<v Speaker 5>get on the plane.

0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 4>And they call I fly United all the time.

0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.439
<v Speaker 5>They're like, oh, it's Global Services, okay, Global services, go forward,

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.639
<v Speaker 5>and now armed services okay, armed services and people with

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.600
<v Speaker 5>young children, and you just you realize that that first

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.080
<v Speaker 5>class ticket that has you know, boarding group one, doesn't

0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:11.880
<v Speaker 5>mean that you're getting on first.

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:13.080
<v Speaker 2>Well, you all get there at the same time.

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:13.520
<v Speaker 4>At least.

0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.000
<v Speaker 2>This is how I cause you know, I don't like

0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:16.399
<v Speaker 2>waiting there either, but I was like, you know what

0:18:16.440 --> 0:18:18.480
<v Speaker 2>I'm getting. I'm going to arrive at the destination the

0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:21.400
<v Speaker 2>same as all these people with children everything, So that's

0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:24.080
<v Speaker 2>hot anyway. You know, there was a story recently Core

0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:26.600
<v Speaker 2>we have one of the big neocloud companies sort of

0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:30.920
<v Speaker 2>lowered a growth forecast because of delay and the third

0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 2>party data center project, which is exactly sort of what

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.960
<v Speaker 2>you're talking about these things. How does that affect the

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 2>financing this uncertainty of when you can actually plug these

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:43.200
<v Speaker 2>things in or when they're going to get approved, because

0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:46.360
<v Speaker 2>that sounds very frustrating and time is money, and so

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 2>how does that interact with the credit component?

0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.919
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so you kind of have three categories in the

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:55.680
<v Speaker 5>timeline of one of these projects. You have your development

0:18:55.760 --> 0:19:00.080
<v Speaker 5>capital that's often equity funded. You have your construction but

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.680
<v Speaker 5>also you get a big construction loan once you've got

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.440
<v Speaker 5>your permits and your power, and then after that's been completed,

0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 5>then you do your takeout finance. Okay, that maybe the securitization.

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:10.480
<v Speaker 3>And the like.

0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:14.720
<v Speaker 2>Has the regulatory I guess political environment does it feel

0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.040
<v Speaker 2>like it's significantly changed in the last six months, So

0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:19.400
<v Speaker 2>you talk about like, you know, very few people were

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.840
<v Speaker 2>talking about water. My impression is that the water component

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.399
<v Speaker 2>specifically is very overrated based I think, except right, But

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.159
<v Speaker 2>it obviously is a matter. But you know, the public

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:31.040
<v Speaker 2>is really concerned about water. The public is clearly concerned

0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:33.959
<v Speaker 2>about electricity prices. People are showing up to town halls

0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:37.080
<v Speaker 2>to protest or to voice their opposition to new data

0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:39.679
<v Speaker 2>center projects in the areas where they live. Does it

0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.960
<v Speaker 2>feel like the environment today when we're talking in December

0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five, is meaningfully different than it was at

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:47.800
<v Speaker 2>the start of the year in terms of public awareness

0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:48.479
<v Speaker 2>of all this stuff.

0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:53.040
<v Speaker 5>So politically, absolutely right. I think that the community organizers,

0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:55.760
<v Speaker 5>and there are a lot of organizations that kind of

0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:58.879
<v Speaker 5>make their money based on outrage around these types of things,

0:19:59.160 --> 0:20:00.880
<v Speaker 5>they've realized that this this is a great.

0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 4>Opportunity for them.

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.560
<v Speaker 5>And if you look at the sustainability reports of a

0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:08.080
<v Speaker 5>lot of the hyperscalers and others, they talk about being

0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:11.160
<v Speaker 5>water positive. It doesn't mean that they're just happy about water.

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.800
<v Speaker 5>It means that they're actually trying to have a positive impact,

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:16.680
<v Speaker 5>and they'll start putting money into the water sheds and

0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:21.000
<v Speaker 5>the like and water replacement and that actually is really meaningful.

0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:22.560
<v Speaker 5>Is a part of the story that I think a

0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:25.480
<v Speaker 5>lot of the folks that are thinking about the political

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.320
<v Speaker 5>aspect of this don't realize, which is when these data

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.360
<v Speaker 5>centers come in and the balance sheets of these hyperscalers

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 5>come into an area that's largely been overlooked.

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 4>You know, it's that.

0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:39.440
<v Speaker 5>New Yorker magazine cover where you know you're looking from.

0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 2>The Manhattan and then it's California, right Exactly.

0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:47.600
<v Speaker 5>A lot of these areas are underinvested, particularly in infrastructure,

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 5>and a hyperscaler comes in and starts saying, well, you know,

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:54.399
<v Speaker 5>this water treatment facility isn't sufficient, we need to build

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:58.040
<v Speaker 5>it out. That's very meaningful part of that interconnection study

0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:00.399
<v Speaker 5>that we're doing. You're looking at the electric trans mission

0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 5>of the area. That is very meaningful. But water for

0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 5>the developer, it's not a problem unless it's actually a problem.

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:10.879
<v Speaker 5>What I mean by that is we have a lawyer

0:21:10.920 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 5>on several lawyers on staff that focus on water, and

0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:17.440
<v Speaker 5>one of them, for example, knows all ninety eight water

0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.680
<v Speaker 5>districts in Texas and knows which one you are supposed

0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:22.719
<v Speaker 5>to go to if you want to get your project

0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:27.160
<v Speaker 5>done quickly and which one to avoid. That's something that

0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:30.400
<v Speaker 5>if you mess it up, could really affect your timeline.

0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:33.399
<v Speaker 3>Wait now, I'm really curious what would make one water

0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:36.199
<v Speaker 3>destination more attractive versus the one you want to avoid.

0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 3>Is it just regulatory hurdles or is it like quality

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:39.639
<v Speaker 3>of the water.

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.679
<v Speaker 5>So it's not quality of the water. You know, if

0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 5>it's pottable water, it's pottable water. It's both water supply

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:49.760
<v Speaker 5>and then water off take. So one of the issues

0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:51.719
<v Speaker 5>in oil and gas and Texas that they've had is

0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 5>where do we get all the water?

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:55.159
<v Speaker 4>And what are we doing with all of this wastewater.

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:58.400
<v Speaker 5>It's the exact same thing with data centers. Obviously they're

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:01.000
<v Speaker 5>putting different chemicals into the water in order to put

0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:04.159
<v Speaker 5>it into the facility, but it's still a chemically treated

0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:06.720
<v Speaker 5>water that has to be processed before it can go

0:22:06.800 --> 0:22:11.119
<v Speaker 5>back either into the drinking supply or into the rivers

0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:11.680
<v Speaker 5>and streams.

0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:15.359
<v Speaker 2>And so, just back to the political environment, like what's

0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:18.080
<v Speaker 2>that doing on the ground today, This big change that's

0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:20.760
<v Speaker 2>occurred because everyone's up in arms about all this stuff,

0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:23.720
<v Speaker 2>how is that affecting some of the project planning that

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:24.479
<v Speaker 2>exists today.

0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:27.920
<v Speaker 5>So I think that the developers have been very mindful

0:22:28.000 --> 0:22:30.320
<v Speaker 5>in the past, but they're even more so now because

0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:33.800
<v Speaker 5>of the sensitivity around it. In certain states, they are

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:38.160
<v Speaker 5>considering proposals that might involve moratoriums on data centers. That's

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 5>not the case in taxas. If you look at what

0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:43.399
<v Speaker 5>Governor Abbott and the legislature have been doing, they're pushing

0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:48.240
<v Speaker 5>a more data centers, more tax incentives, more infrastructure. I

0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.240
<v Speaker 5>think Virginia and several other places realize how important it

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:53.760
<v Speaker 5>is to their economies as well and to their tax

0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 5>base because data centers produce a lot of tax revenue

0:22:57.600 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 5>for these states, which go to help fund.

0:22:59.320 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 4>Schools in the laws.

0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:04.160
<v Speaker 3>Is anyone talking about public private partnerships in the data

0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:06.600
<v Speaker 3>center context. I feel like this is something that comes

0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:10.159
<v Speaker 3>in waves. People start getting really really excited about, like

0:23:10.440 --> 0:23:13.720
<v Speaker 3>public private partnerships for infrastructure build out, and then you

0:23:13.760 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 3>don't hear about it for like five years, and then

0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:17.840
<v Speaker 3>it comes back. Are we in one of those waves

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:20.000
<v Speaker 3>right now when it comes to data center spend or not?

0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 5>Really? Yes, So I'm thinking about what I can say.

0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:26.919
<v Speaker 5>So the short answer is yes, those are being explored.

0:23:27.320 --> 0:23:30.359
<v Speaker 5>They're both from the perspective of public private partnerships, but

0:23:30.480 --> 0:23:33.520
<v Speaker 5>also from the perspective of like the Department of Energy

0:23:33.560 --> 0:23:36.280
<v Speaker 5>Loan Program Office and right you worked on TARA are

0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:39.879
<v Speaker 5>the others. Yes, they can provide financing support and the

0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:43.480
<v Speaker 5>Department of Energy has been very vocal about what the

0:23:43.560 --> 0:23:48.440
<v Speaker 5>Loan Program Office offers. The Department of Defense, Department of War,

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 5>I guess now also has programs that they can make available.

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:55.400
<v Speaker 5>Some of these are actual grants, some of them are loans,

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:59.479
<v Speaker 5>but separated apart from that, there's loan guarantees and so

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:02.639
<v Speaker 5>you have a backstop by the federal government of a

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:06.199
<v Speaker 5>loan that Let's be honest, if you're at forty percent

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:10.119
<v Speaker 5>loan to value and you've got investment grade tenant that's

0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 5>going to be paying the lease longer than the term

0:24:13.080 --> 0:24:15.439
<v Speaker 5>of the bond, do you really need it? Probably not,

0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:18.520
<v Speaker 5>but it can help lower the cost of capital anyway.

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:21.760
<v Speaker 2>Actually say more about that because we did several episodes.

0:24:22.040 --> 0:24:24.960
<v Speaker 2>We've done several episodes about the idea of loan guarantees

0:24:25.000 --> 0:24:27.639
<v Speaker 2>or particularly the Loan Program's Office. Well, but from the

0:24:27.720 --> 0:24:30.680
<v Speaker 2>private side, like talk to us about how that functionally

0:24:30.800 --> 0:24:33.120
<v Speaker 2>turns into Okay, we're going to get a better credit rating,

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 2>or this is going to crowd in private capital. As

0:24:35.880 --> 0:24:38.320
<v Speaker 2>they like to say, what happens, what is the steps

0:24:38.400 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 2>via which the government's role suddenly unlocks this finance.

0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:45.359
<v Speaker 5>I think in all credit, when you're trying to underwrite

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 5>any kind of loan, you want to see what are

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:50.600
<v Speaker 5>the cash flows or what's the collateral? And am I

0:24:50.640 --> 0:24:53.119
<v Speaker 5>going to get paid back? What's the likeliod right? And

0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:56.720
<v Speaker 5>one of the things that the frameworks I think are

0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 5>show me who you walk with, and I'll show you

0:24:58.760 --> 0:24:59.200
<v Speaker 5>who you are.

0:24:59.359 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:03.439
<v Speaker 5>Fine, if you have the United States government that is

0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:05.400
<v Speaker 5>providing a backstop, then I can be.

0:25:05.359 --> 0:25:06.960
<v Speaker 4>Confident I'm going to get paid back.

0:25:07.320 --> 0:25:11.919
<v Speaker 5>If it's Microsoft or Google or another who's providing a

0:25:12.160 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 5>guarantee on a project or the loan, then I'm very

0:25:16.040 --> 0:25:18.399
<v Speaker 5>comfortable that I'm going to get paid back. When you

0:25:18.440 --> 0:25:21.919
<v Speaker 5>put these types of things together, that means I don't

0:25:21.960 --> 0:25:26.280
<v Speaker 5>have to charge you an extra incremental amount to protect

0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:29.439
<v Speaker 5>me from that credit risk, and that extra money that

0:25:29.480 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 5>you keep in your pocket you can then turn into

0:25:32.480 --> 0:25:36.680
<v Speaker 5>additional projects and it's a velocity of money concept.

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:39.840
<v Speaker 3>I want to go back to private credit for a second, because,

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:42.159
<v Speaker 3>as you mentioned earlier, a lot of these deals have

0:25:42.240 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 3>been done in the private credit space so far, and

0:25:45.960 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 3>companies have a lot of options when it comes to financing.

0:25:48.640 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 3>As I mentioned in the intro, they can go the

0:25:50.320 --> 0:25:54.080
<v Speaker 3>public route, they can securitize, they can go to private credit.

0:25:54.520 --> 0:25:56.880
<v Speaker 3>And whenever people talk about private credit in the context

0:25:56.880 --> 0:26:00.480
<v Speaker 3>of AI, they always say vague things like, oh, provides

0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:05.560
<v Speaker 3>customizable financing options and stuff like that. What exactly is

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:09.399
<v Speaker 3>the attraction of private credit for data centers and AI

0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:10.360
<v Speaker 3>build out.

0:26:10.960 --> 0:26:14.439
<v Speaker 5>So one of the most attractive things that private credit

0:26:14.520 --> 0:26:18.360
<v Speaker 5>can but doesn't always offer, is nondluted capital. Right, equity

0:26:18.440 --> 0:26:22.680
<v Speaker 5>is diluted, and equity is very expensive. There's that risk premium.

0:26:22.280 --> 0:26:23.439
<v Speaker 4>That's associated with it.

0:26:23.840 --> 0:26:27.400
<v Speaker 5>Private credit, there is an assumption in the story that

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:31.680
<v Speaker 5>because of the extra protections that they receive, they don't

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:34.760
<v Speaker 5>need the same equity risk premium. So a lot of

0:26:34.840 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 5>them are looking at maybe a fifteen percent IRR. They

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:40.919
<v Speaker 5>might charge you ten to twelve percent up front, but

0:26:40.960 --> 0:26:45.080
<v Speaker 5>then because of the moint that basically their minimum return

0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:47.880
<v Speaker 5>on the capital that they'll get paid or an IRR

0:26:48.000 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 5>premium over time in the takeout, then they'll have a

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:55.200
<v Speaker 5>catch up on the back end the equity they're taking

0:26:55.200 --> 0:26:57.280
<v Speaker 5>a percentage of what you at the end of the

0:26:57.359 --> 0:26:59.040
<v Speaker 5>day are going to get, and it's usually a much

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 5>more expensive piece private credit.

0:27:01.359 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 2>But what about private credit versus other forms of credit

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:06.160
<v Speaker 2>like bank lending or the public bond market.

0:27:06.359 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, can you get it?

0:27:07.560 --> 0:27:09.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean that's I mean, what is that's a

0:27:09.960 --> 0:27:10.359
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:14.640
<v Speaker 5>The underwriting standards for private credit can be riskier than

0:27:14.680 --> 0:27:17.360
<v Speaker 5>what you would have from you know, a bull bracket

0:27:17.400 --> 0:27:18.800
<v Speaker 5>bank's credit desk.

0:27:34.760 --> 0:27:38.160
<v Speaker 3>So when it comes to tenant diversification in data centers,

0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:42.959
<v Speaker 3>how is that judged and evaluated and priced? Because if

0:27:43.000 --> 0:27:45.439
<v Speaker 3>I think about who's you know, using a data center,

0:27:46.160 --> 0:27:49.320
<v Speaker 3>correlation is hard to measure at the best of times.

0:27:49.359 --> 0:27:50.960
<v Speaker 3>And if I think about, you know, like a new

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:54.399
<v Speaker 3>business that's growing and everyone is suddenly using it, it

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:56.719
<v Speaker 3>feels like the kind of thing that could end up

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:59.200
<v Speaker 3>being very correlated as opposed to diversified.

0:27:59.800 --> 0:28:05.600
<v Speaker 5>So when you are thinking about larger investment grade bonds

0:28:05.720 --> 0:28:09.639
<v Speaker 5>and debt in data centers, normally you are thinking about

0:28:09.920 --> 0:28:14.919
<v Speaker 5>wholesale data centers where there's one tenant that has that facility,

0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:20.040
<v Speaker 5>and that tenant has investment grade credit qual it's much

0:28:20.119 --> 0:28:22.719
<v Speaker 5>less likely that you are going to have a pool

0:28:22.800 --> 0:28:26.199
<v Speaker 5>of non investment grade tenants in a kind of co

0:28:26.320 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 5>location style data center, and then because of that, Fitch

0:28:31.600 --> 0:28:34.160
<v Speaker 5>or S and P or Kroll is going to give

0:28:34.200 --> 0:28:37.439
<v Speaker 5>you this investment grade rating. So I don't think that

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:41.880
<v Speaker 5>the expectation should be that you're going to get a

0:28:42.320 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 5>investment grade rating on a pool of non investment grade tenants,

0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:48.600
<v Speaker 5>at least not right now. I think that eventually, when

0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:52.960
<v Speaker 5>you've got thousands of tenants across hundreds of data centers,

0:28:53.240 --> 0:28:54.760
<v Speaker 5>that becomes much more attractive.

0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:57.080
<v Speaker 4>It's just not really where the market is right now.

0:28:57.160 --> 0:28:59.520
<v Speaker 2>We did an episode a few months ago in September

0:28:59.520 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 2>actually where we're talking to this guy, Don Wilson in

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:06.160
<v Speaker 2>Chicago who setting up a futures trading firm for GPUs

0:29:06.240 --> 0:29:09.000
<v Speaker 2>and theoretically it can hedge your GPU costs. As you

0:29:09.040 --> 0:29:11.880
<v Speaker 2>think about the industry going forward, could you see that

0:29:12.000 --> 0:29:16.760
<v Speaker 2>being a useful instrument for data center financing. Where I'm

0:29:16.760 --> 0:29:20.560
<v Speaker 2>a little concerned about is the value of this collateral goodness, name,

0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:23.640
<v Speaker 2>I want to hedge the GPU exposure. Could you see

0:29:23.640 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 2>over time maturing and debt being a valuable thing.

0:29:26.760 --> 0:29:29.800
<v Speaker 5>I love new finance tools. I think that that kind

0:29:29.800 --> 0:29:34.040
<v Speaker 5>of creativity is really important. There's always an opportunity there

0:29:34.520 --> 0:29:38.040
<v Speaker 5>that The thing I have noticed with the data centers,

0:29:38.120 --> 0:29:41.280
<v Speaker 5>just with other asset classes, is that there's always a

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:45.560
<v Speaker 5>cash flow stream that is not being utilized. And so

0:29:45.680 --> 0:29:49.280
<v Speaker 5>for example, if you have a securitization you're or really

0:29:49.320 --> 0:29:52.400
<v Speaker 5>any bond, you're not necessarily going to get credit for

0:29:52.720 --> 0:29:56.960
<v Speaker 5>everything in it. So your contracted cash flows, if that

0:29:57.040 --> 0:30:00.479
<v Speaker 5>counter party is an investment grade, may not get an

0:30:00.520 --> 0:30:04.320
<v Speaker 5>advance rate a loan to value on that. Somebody else

0:30:04.360 --> 0:30:06.960
<v Speaker 5>should be there in order to take advantage of that

0:30:07.160 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 5>and provide you with additional capital that you can then

0:30:10.000 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 5>reinvest into development.

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:14.880
<v Speaker 3>So last week we had a big outage at the

0:30:14.880 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 3>CME and futures were basically frozen for like ten hours

0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 3>or something, and this was because of an issue at

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:24.040
<v Speaker 3>one of the CME's data centers, which is operated by

0:30:24.120 --> 0:30:28.560
<v Speaker 3>a company called cyrus One. Is there a reputational or

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 3>operational risk that either deal structures or investors need to

0:30:32.840 --> 0:30:35.880
<v Speaker 3>be aware of when it comes to these financing arrangements.

0:30:35.680 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 5>Reputational or in what regards so well.

0:30:38.400 --> 0:30:41.520
<v Speaker 3>For instance, if cyrus one has a big melt down

0:30:41.640 --> 0:30:43.719
<v Speaker 3>at one of their data centers which seems to have

0:30:43.760 --> 0:30:48.440
<v Speaker 3>happened because one of their cooling centers reportedly malfunctioned. Is

0:30:48.440 --> 0:30:52.720
<v Speaker 3>that something that then gets priced into the financing arrangement

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 3>or is that something that investors should be concerned about.

0:30:56.480 --> 0:31:00.680
<v Speaker 5>So these are definitely things that investors underwright too. So

0:31:01.160 --> 0:31:06.320
<v Speaker 5>if you are a blue chip operator and developer, you

0:31:06.400 --> 0:31:09.040
<v Speaker 5>are going to have a lower cost of capital than

0:31:09.080 --> 0:31:12.160
<v Speaker 5>you would otherwise. There are a lot of Johnny cum

0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:15.720
<v Speaker 5>Lateli's into data centers over the last two years, since

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:19.360
<v Speaker 5>AI has really come to the forefront. The people that

0:31:19.400 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 5>have been doing it for a decade, they know what

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:24.160
<v Speaker 5>they're doing and they're very good at it. And that

0:31:24.200 --> 0:31:27.560
<v Speaker 5>doesn't mean that there aren't going to be problems. Things

0:31:27.600 --> 0:31:29.400
<v Speaker 5>blow up sometimes.

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:32.320
<v Speaker 3>Squirrels, two wires, yeah, hopefully not subsea ones.

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 5>There are accidents all the time, but that's part of

0:31:36.800 --> 0:31:41.600
<v Speaker 5>why you have these pretty incredible engineering studies that are

0:31:41.640 --> 0:31:44.160
<v Speaker 5>done in order to actually put these things together, and

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:48.560
<v Speaker 5>freak accidents happen, and you know, that's part of the

0:31:48.600 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 5>credit risk.

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:53.720
<v Speaker 2>We just compared to other sort of real estate plays,

0:31:54.200 --> 0:31:56.840
<v Speaker 2>is there more sort of I guess, operational risk in

0:31:56.920 --> 0:31:59.760
<v Speaker 2>a data center than in other times? You know, we're

0:31:59.840 --> 0:32:04.280
<v Speaker 2>just some sort of retail distribution facility. I imagine the

0:32:04.320 --> 0:32:06.840
<v Speaker 2>sort of operational risk isn't going to be as great

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:07.680
<v Speaker 2>and something like that.

0:32:07.840 --> 0:32:11.000
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so that's part of why they have these service

0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 5>level agreements within the data centers themselves, where the operator

0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:20.480
<v Speaker 5>is agreeing to provide an uninterruptible, non intermittent power. That's

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:23.280
<v Speaker 5>one of the big things that people focus on. And

0:32:23.440 --> 0:32:26.080
<v Speaker 5>how do the terms of that contract work and what

0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:30.040
<v Speaker 5>are the backstops. You could have a reserve account associated

0:32:30.040 --> 0:32:32.200
<v Speaker 5>with it so that if there are payments that are

0:32:32.240 --> 0:32:35.400
<v Speaker 5>necessary to be made, that there's just cash sitting there

0:32:35.840 --> 0:32:39.000
<v Speaker 5>ready to go. Normally, people are thinking that that would

0:32:39.080 --> 0:32:42.040
<v Speaker 5>reduce the cash flow on the bond, and that would

0:32:42.080 --> 0:32:46.120
<v Speaker 5>reduce at the end of the day, the equity distribution coming.

0:32:45.840 --> 0:32:50.080
<v Speaker 4>From the SPV as opposed to affecting the payment on

0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:50.480
<v Speaker 4>the bond.

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:53.719
<v Speaker 3>That reminds me, actually, are you seeing a big surge

0:32:53.720 --> 0:32:57.600
<v Speaker 3>and demand for data center insurance or for people you

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.000
<v Speaker 3>know who want to ensure not just against operational risks,

0:33:00.200 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 3>but cyber risk and things like that.

0:33:02.560 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 4>Yes.

0:33:03.000 --> 0:33:05.920
<v Speaker 5>So one of the wonderful things about any kind of

0:33:05.960 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 5>economic activity is that the insurance market is always there.

0:33:08.920 --> 0:33:09.560
<v Speaker 4>To support it.

0:33:10.280 --> 0:33:11.280
<v Speaker 3>Like the lawyers as well.

0:33:11.360 --> 0:33:13.560
<v Speaker 5>Right, yeah, definitely give us a call.

0:33:13.640 --> 0:33:13.880
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:33:14.000 --> 0:33:17.480
<v Speaker 5>The reality though, is there are products that data centers

0:33:17.480 --> 0:33:20.920
<v Speaker 5>have had for decades, and then there are new risks

0:33:20.960 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 5>that are coming up just because of how AI training works.

0:33:24.120 --> 0:33:25.960
<v Speaker 5>You can always go to Lloyd's of London in order

0:33:26.000 --> 0:33:28.920
<v Speaker 5>to get a specific policy if necessary, But for the

0:33:28.920 --> 0:33:31.560
<v Speaker 5>most part, these are risks that have already been priced in,

0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:34.600
<v Speaker 5>and there are products that are already there. Now there's

0:33:34.720 --> 0:33:38.280
<v Speaker 5>talk of well, there are products that exist in terms

0:33:38.280 --> 0:33:42.320
<v Speaker 5>of getting an insurance product to handle your technology risk.

0:33:42.680 --> 0:33:44.680
<v Speaker 5>So does the product work at the end of the

0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 5>day or does it become obsolete too quickly? That looks

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:52.200
<v Speaker 5>more like a bet, almost as opposed to a real

0:33:52.240 --> 0:33:53.120
<v Speaker 5>insurance policy.

0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:55.400
<v Speaker 4>But it's something that can be underwritten.

0:33:55.920 --> 0:33:58.400
<v Speaker 2>How valuable it is just having a plug into the grid,

0:33:58.480 --> 0:34:01.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, I'm thinking about are those various deals of

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:05.920
<v Speaker 2>companies wanting to buy bitcoin mining operations, for example, and

0:34:06.000 --> 0:34:08.480
<v Speaker 2>it seems like you know what, yeah, maybe you can

0:34:08.520 --> 0:34:10.680
<v Speaker 2>make a little money mining bitcoin, but you have you

0:34:10.760 --> 0:34:13.799
<v Speaker 2>have access to twenty four to seven reliable power. That's

0:34:13.840 --> 0:34:17.000
<v Speaker 2>a lot more valuable than what's going on inside the

0:34:17.000 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 2>shell here. Talk to us just about that value of

0:34:19.719 --> 0:34:21.400
<v Speaker 2>anyone who has access to power.

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:27.239
<v Speaker 5>So powered land is huge and that is developing. You know,

0:34:27.719 --> 0:34:30.319
<v Speaker 5>it's existed for a while, but is becoming more and

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:33.960
<v Speaker 5>more important because there are rets and real estate developers

0:34:34.280 --> 0:34:37.319
<v Speaker 5>who don't need to have the sophistication of can I

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:41.600
<v Speaker 5>do the new direct to cooling technology for a powered

0:34:41.600 --> 0:34:44.880
<v Speaker 5>shell or turnkey solution. I'm just going to have land

0:34:44.960 --> 0:34:46.800
<v Speaker 5>and I'm going to make sure that there's sufficient power

0:34:46.800 --> 0:34:49.799
<v Speaker 5>here for you to build your data center or for

0:34:49.880 --> 0:34:54.120
<v Speaker 5>you to bring your GPUs into. That's attractive if you

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:57.040
<v Speaker 5>listen to the earnings calls of several of the real

0:34:57.120 --> 0:35:00.440
<v Speaker 5>estate developers, they're moving into that if they have an already.

0:35:00.880 --> 0:35:03.600
<v Speaker 2>So their job is they're just going to secure land

0:35:03.600 --> 0:35:05.839
<v Speaker 2>that they can that they know they can get power too.

0:35:05.880 --> 0:35:07.640
<v Speaker 5>So they've already got like they've got that right. So

0:35:08.000 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 5>the interesting part is there's so many different projects over

0:35:11.520 --> 0:35:15.440
<v Speaker 5>the last several decades where they've been working through interconnection

0:35:15.560 --> 0:35:19.239
<v Speaker 5>studies for the land for you name it project, and

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:22.719
<v Speaker 5>they're waiting years and years just like everybody else, in

0:35:22.800 --> 0:35:25.759
<v Speaker 5>order to get those done. Well, why use it for

0:35:25.800 --> 0:35:26.879
<v Speaker 5>this when we can use it.

0:35:26.840 --> 0:35:28.560
<v Speaker 4>For that and data centers?

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:30.760
<v Speaker 5>You can make a lot more money on it.

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:34.439
<v Speaker 3>Isn't the obvious solution to the power problem just for

0:35:34.680 --> 0:35:37.839
<v Speaker 3>the big guys to build their own power system and

0:35:37.920 --> 0:35:40.439
<v Speaker 3>maybe spend a little bit more money plugging it into

0:35:40.480 --> 0:35:43.160
<v Speaker 3>the grid. Again, if political pushback is becoming an issue,

0:35:43.239 --> 0:35:46.040
<v Speaker 3>or if regulators are worried about this, shouldn't they just

0:35:46.080 --> 0:35:48.120
<v Speaker 3>do it on their own? Is that the straightforward thing

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:48.440
<v Speaker 3>to do.

0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:52.399
<v Speaker 5>The hyperscalers themselves. I think that goes back to what's

0:35:52.440 --> 0:35:54.279
<v Speaker 5>the best use of their capital. They're not in the

0:35:54.320 --> 0:35:58.279
<v Speaker 5>infrastructure business specifically, though, I will say if you look

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:03.239
<v Speaker 5>at Love, Amazon is an example. They sold books, they

0:36:03.239 --> 0:36:06.640
<v Speaker 5>had the website, they needed to expand, so they build

0:36:06.680 --> 0:36:09.080
<v Speaker 5>Amazon Web services. They need a distribution.

0:36:09.320 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 4>They've got that.

0:36:10.760 --> 0:36:15.520
<v Speaker 5>Tech companies have been becoming energy companies for years. Energy companies,

0:36:15.560 --> 0:36:18.319
<v Speaker 5>we know, had to become tech companies a decade ago

0:36:18.440 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 5>in order to just keep up. But now there's this

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:26.000
<v Speaker 5>integration that's happening from both sides, both in terms of

0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:29.320
<v Speaker 5>what's happening in our operations but the ownership itself.

0:36:29.960 --> 0:36:33.000
<v Speaker 2>Just going back to powered land for a second, So

0:36:33.040 --> 0:36:35.560
<v Speaker 2>what you're saying is that there are these developments that

0:36:35.600 --> 0:36:37.760
<v Speaker 2>have been going on a long time, but they initially

0:36:37.800 --> 0:36:41.000
<v Speaker 2>planned for something else, But that today in twenty twenty five,

0:36:41.120 --> 0:36:43.400
<v Speaker 2>is they're getting closer to when they could be connected.

0:36:43.640 --> 0:36:46.640
<v Speaker 2>Maybe AI is you know, this connection is a lot

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:48.920
<v Speaker 2>more valuable for an AI data center.

0:36:49.000 --> 0:36:50.280
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely, so this is interesting.

0:36:50.280 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 2>See this to me, like, the only reason I go

0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:54.480
<v Speaker 2>back to this is because one of the things that

0:36:54.520 --> 0:36:56.959
<v Speaker 2>when people talk about an AI bubble, if there is one,

0:36:57.280 --> 0:37:00.239
<v Speaker 2>is this idea of crowding out other productive use of

0:37:00.280 --> 0:37:02.640
<v Speaker 2>the economy. Right, are there better things in the long

0:37:02.719 --> 0:37:04.840
<v Speaker 2>term that we could have done with these turbines? Are

0:37:04.880 --> 0:37:07.200
<v Speaker 2>there better things that we could have done with these

0:37:07.719 --> 0:37:11.520
<v Speaker 2>electrical connection systems, et cetera. And other companies might have

0:37:11.600 --> 0:37:13.680
<v Speaker 2>been waiting on some piece of gear and the AI

0:37:13.760 --> 0:37:15.840
<v Speaker 2>data center outbid them, And I'm going to I'm not

0:37:15.880 --> 0:37:19.080
<v Speaker 2>asking you like this sustainable, but there are other things

0:37:19.239 --> 0:37:21.760
<v Speaker 2>that are going to lose out or not have access

0:37:21.800 --> 0:37:24.839
<v Speaker 2>to electricity that people wanted to do but aren't going

0:37:24.880 --> 0:37:28.440
<v Speaker 2>to because that wire is more valuable for an AI.

0:37:28.239 --> 0:37:29.440
<v Speaker 4>Company one hundred percent.

0:37:29.760 --> 0:37:33.399
<v Speaker 5>Think about the actual interconnection queue two and a half

0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:37.120
<v Speaker 5>years ago, before AI became a big deal, there was

0:37:37.840 --> 0:37:42.000
<v Speaker 5>I want to say, twenty six hundred gigawatts in the

0:37:42.040 --> 0:37:45.520
<v Speaker 5>interconnection queue, and we were expecting eighty percent of that

0:37:45.560 --> 0:37:49.120
<v Speaker 5>would never actually be constructed. Only twenty percent of it would.

0:37:49.280 --> 0:37:52.880
<v Speaker 5>And that's pretty typical even on a going forward basis,

0:37:53.560 --> 0:37:56.000
<v Speaker 5>what are you going to do with those projects and

0:37:56.520 --> 0:37:59.319
<v Speaker 5>that land that has already started in a process of

0:37:59.320 --> 0:38:01.839
<v Speaker 5>interconnections that he is and the like, Well, you can

0:38:02.160 --> 0:38:06.160
<v Speaker 5>shift that to data centers, especially because a lot of

0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:10.360
<v Speaker 5>that you were producing solar batteries, wind and other power

0:38:10.400 --> 0:38:13.239
<v Speaker 5>gen Now you add on the data center layer to it.

0:38:13.640 --> 0:38:16.759
<v Speaker 5>And what may not have been economic before now is.

0:38:17.239 --> 0:38:18.399
<v Speaker 3>Should I build a data center?

0:38:18.480 --> 0:38:19.520
<v Speaker 2>Joe, Yeah, I've.

0:38:19.360 --> 0:38:22.480
<v Speaker 3>Got a grid connection, I've got a water Yeah, there

0:38:22.480 --> 0:38:25.239
<v Speaker 3>we go. Okay, next project all lots builds a data

0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:28.480
<v Speaker 3>center in protected land in Connecticut?

0:38:29.400 --> 0:38:33.920
<v Speaker 6>Probably not actually, So this sort of piggybacks on a

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:38.279
<v Speaker 6>question that Tracy as already. But why not just for

0:38:38.480 --> 0:38:41.600
<v Speaker 6>you know, these is companies, particularly the hyperscalers that look

0:38:41.600 --> 0:38:44.200
<v Speaker 6>out in the environment and there's all these people showing

0:38:44.239 --> 0:38:47.319
<v Speaker 6>up at meetings complaining about the water et cetera like that,

0:38:47.840 --> 0:38:52.000
<v Speaker 6>Why isn't the future just entirely behind the meter in

0:38:52.040 --> 0:38:53.920
<v Speaker 6>Texas where it's like we're just gonna.

0:38:53.680 --> 0:38:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Build it all.

0:38:54.160 --> 0:38:56.799
<v Speaker 2>We're gonna have the natural gas plant on site. We're

0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:59.160
<v Speaker 2>never gonna bother with the grid. We're never gonna We're

0:38:59.200 --> 0:39:01.279
<v Speaker 2>just gonna have the plan right there. Why isn't that

0:39:01.440 --> 0:39:02.960
<v Speaker 2>just the entire future of data center?

0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:05.440
<v Speaker 5>One of the issues with behind the meter is what

0:39:05.719 --> 0:39:09.560
<v Speaker 5>if the data center goes away? So, for example, what

0:39:09.640 --> 0:39:13.400
<v Speaker 5>if Mark Zuckerberg one day decides I'm not doing the

0:39:13.440 --> 0:39:17.640
<v Speaker 5>metaverse anymore and somebody in AI says I'm not doing AI,

0:39:18.480 --> 0:39:22.520
<v Speaker 5>or we move from GPUs to quantum.

0:39:22.080 --> 0:39:23.600
<v Speaker 4>Computing or something like that.

0:39:24.000 --> 0:39:28.200
<v Speaker 5>You want to have that generative capacity interconnected with the

0:39:28.239 --> 0:39:30.520
<v Speaker 5>grid so that you don't have a stranded asset.

0:39:30.800 --> 0:39:33.839
<v Speaker 3>Okay, oh yeah, stranded assets. There's a word I haven't

0:39:33.840 --> 0:39:34.200
<v Speaker 3>heard of you.

0:39:34.280 --> 0:39:34.640
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I know.

0:39:35.160 --> 0:39:39.040
<v Speaker 2>So just looking forward and I mentioned earlier core Weave

0:39:39.200 --> 0:39:41.319
<v Speaker 2>saying okay, there is a delay and some of it's

0:39:41.360 --> 0:39:43.880
<v Speaker 2>build out. What are the big choke points and do

0:39:43.880 --> 0:39:46.399
<v Speaker 2>you expect them to stack up? We recently did an

0:39:46.440 --> 0:39:50.160
<v Speaker 2>episode with a Travis Cavula Energy and he was like,

0:39:50.239 --> 0:39:52.720
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, like the amount of just the sheer

0:39:52.760 --> 0:39:56.000
<v Speaker 2>amount that we're adding to the grid, Like it's gonna

0:39:56.040 --> 0:39:58.000
<v Speaker 2>be tough and I don't know how it's all going

0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:00.279
<v Speaker 2>to pan out for some of these projects, but what

0:40:00.320 --> 0:40:02.479
<v Speaker 2>do you see as the sort of big bottle extra

0:40:02.600 --> 0:40:04.359
<v Speaker 2>choke points that you're thinking about in the coming years.

0:40:04.840 --> 0:40:07.840
<v Speaker 5>So power continues to be the number one bottle, like

0:40:08.080 --> 0:40:11.560
<v Speaker 5>I don't think anybody would dispute that. Water obviously is

0:40:11.560 --> 0:40:15.080
<v Speaker 5>an issue as well. Getting the turbines and getting what

0:40:15.120 --> 0:40:19.080
<v Speaker 5>you actually need in order to produce power is very difficult.

0:40:19.680 --> 0:40:22.040
<v Speaker 5>I do think though, that when you look at how

0:40:22.120 --> 0:40:27.360
<v Speaker 5>some of these interconnection requests are prepared, you have five

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:32.240
<v Speaker 5>or ten different people making applications for the exact same project,

0:40:32.719 --> 0:40:36.440
<v Speaker 5>So it inflates what the expectations are on the number

0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:39.200
<v Speaker 5>of projects in the market at a given time. When

0:40:39.280 --> 0:40:42.480
<v Speaker 5>you get rid of all of that extra wash, you

0:40:42.520 --> 0:40:49.360
<v Speaker 5>wind up with hyperscalers, large enterprises, and other real investment

0:40:49.400 --> 0:40:53.120
<v Speaker 5>grade or serious tenets. Give you projects that can get done.

0:40:53.239 --> 0:40:56.600
<v Speaker 5>That's infrastructure, that's infrastructure grade, and a lot of the

0:40:56.719 --> 0:41:01.160
<v Speaker 5>speculative assets those are power points. They probably are not

0:41:01.200 --> 0:41:03.440
<v Speaker 5>going to get made, particularly if there's any kind of

0:41:03.560 --> 0:41:04.640
<v Speaker 5>economic shock later.

0:41:05.280 --> 0:41:07.680
<v Speaker 2>Travis Watford, thank you so much for coming on OUTLAS.

0:41:07.760 --> 0:41:08.160
<v Speaker 2>It was great.

0:41:08.560 --> 0:41:09.879
<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Thank you so much.

0:41:10.040 --> 0:41:25.200
<v Speaker 2>Appreciate it, Tracy. I thought that was really helpful, really

0:41:25.239 --> 0:41:28.640
<v Speaker 2>clarified a lot of things for me. I'm trying to think,

0:41:28.800 --> 0:41:32.560
<v Speaker 2>Like the point about the sequencing of the financing, I

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:34.920
<v Speaker 2>thought was really interesting or very important to help me

0:41:35.000 --> 0:41:37.480
<v Speaker 2>understand these things, because in my mind, I'm like, well,

0:41:37.480 --> 0:41:39.680
<v Speaker 2>they're going to lose so much money. They're breaking ground

0:41:39.680 --> 0:41:41.880
<v Speaker 2>on all these deals. What if they don't actually get

0:41:41.920 --> 0:41:44.359
<v Speaker 2>implemented because you're waiting forever? And so you're hearing him

0:41:44.400 --> 0:41:46.960
<v Speaker 2>describe the sequencing of different financing at different stages, like,

0:41:46.960 --> 0:41:49.680
<v Speaker 2>all right, well, at least that makes sense to me.

0:41:50.239 --> 0:41:54.200
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I still feel like there's kind of a mismatch issue.

0:41:54.440 --> 0:41:55.600
<v Speaker 2>Sure, well, it.

0:41:55.680 --> 0:41:58.759
<v Speaker 3>Just feels like, you know, you're talking about a a

0:41:58.800 --> 0:42:03.600
<v Speaker 3>technology that has like its own upgrade risk. Let's say,

0:42:03.640 --> 0:42:06.680
<v Speaker 3>like you know, people are developing new chips pretty fast,

0:42:06.800 --> 0:42:08.919
<v Speaker 3>and you don't know when the next one is coming

0:42:08.920 --> 0:42:10.720
<v Speaker 3>down the line and when you might want to replace

0:42:10.800 --> 0:42:13.000
<v Speaker 3>all your chips with something else. So that's one thing

0:42:13.680 --> 0:42:16.399
<v Speaker 3>tendency rollover risk. I know he pushed back a little

0:42:16.400 --> 0:42:19.400
<v Speaker 3>bit on the diversified point, but again, my understanding is

0:42:19.400 --> 0:42:22.920
<v Speaker 3>for a lot of the ABS structures, maybe CMBs as well,

0:42:23.360 --> 0:42:26.640
<v Speaker 3>diversification is part of the proposal, and I think he

0:42:26.719 --> 0:42:30.480
<v Speaker 3>mentioned it earlier, and that seems difficult to me to

0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:33.520
<v Speaker 3>accurately measure. If you have a bunch of tenants all

0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:36.719
<v Speaker 3>you know, doing something in the cloud, drawing something from

0:42:36.800 --> 0:42:40.319
<v Speaker 3>a data center, if there's a big macroeconomic downturn or

0:42:40.360 --> 0:42:42.560
<v Speaker 3>something like, who's to say that they're not all going

0:42:42.640 --> 0:42:44.440
<v Speaker 3>to renig on their lease at once.

0:42:44.640 --> 0:42:48.879
<v Speaker 2>The levels of uncertainty yah, seems so extreme because you're

0:42:48.920 --> 0:42:52.440
<v Speaker 2>talking about, Okay, there's the economic downturn. There's the fact

0:42:52.440 --> 0:42:55.200
<v Speaker 2>that maybe a lot of this AI stuff could completely

0:42:55.239 --> 0:42:59.520
<v Speaker 2>fizzle out and doesn't produce even in normal times. Then

0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:03.600
<v Speaker 2>there's the technological questions. Then there's the operational questions about

0:43:03.600 --> 0:43:06.000
<v Speaker 2>are you actually good at operating and building a data center?

0:43:06.120 --> 0:43:08.200
<v Speaker 2>Not everyone who's gonna be the same, And then there's

0:43:08.280 --> 0:43:11.360
<v Speaker 2>the grid interconnection and all of these things about like

0:43:11.480 --> 0:43:15.439
<v Speaker 2>reliability of power, et cetera. So it feels like, yes,

0:43:15.960 --> 0:43:20.600
<v Speaker 2>on the one hand, I'd very much buy that on paper. Yes,

0:43:20.880 --> 0:43:23.759
<v Speaker 2>you know, this is the twenty twenty five iteration of

0:43:23.800 --> 0:43:25.840
<v Speaker 2>what used to be cell towers or what used to

0:43:25.840 --> 0:43:29.400
<v Speaker 2>be rooftop solar or anything else. But with just an.

0:43:29.719 --> 0:43:31.720
<v Speaker 2>I mean he mentioned with the cell tower for example,

0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:34.000
<v Speaker 2>if one guy whose job is to mow the lawn, right,

0:43:35.640 --> 0:43:41.040
<v Speaker 2>that's like that's the sort the like operational component. I

0:43:41.040 --> 0:43:43.440
<v Speaker 2>get the you know, most of the time the tower

0:43:43.520 --> 0:43:45.560
<v Speaker 2>is just there, right, and you have to make sure

0:43:45.600 --> 0:43:49.600
<v Speaker 2>that it's in it's safe area, et cetera. But the

0:43:49.760 --> 0:43:53.880
<v Speaker 2>degree of complexity, of operational complexity, of technological energy complexity

0:43:53.880 --> 0:43:55.840
<v Speaker 2>for these it just seems like exponentially higher.

0:43:55.920 --> 0:43:58.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And I keep thinking back to just the sheer

0:43:58.480 --> 0:44:01.320
<v Speaker 3>scale of it, and like thebers that got thrown around

0:44:01.320 --> 0:44:04.520
<v Speaker 3>literally trillions of dollars. In the next few years. Well,

0:44:05.000 --> 0:44:06.640
<v Speaker 3>I'm sure we'll do more episodes on it.

0:44:06.680 --> 0:44:09.680
<v Speaker 2>There are so many sub episodes we could do, including

0:44:10.080 --> 0:44:12.959
<v Speaker 2>how the best of the Texas is ninety eight water

0:44:13.040 --> 0:44:14.280
<v Speaker 2>districts and how you find.

0:44:14.040 --> 0:44:16.400
<v Speaker 3>We No, no, no, Joe, you know what sub episode we

0:44:16.440 --> 0:44:16.839
<v Speaker 3>could do?

0:44:17.360 --> 0:44:20.120
<v Speaker 2>Subse cables we got to do. We didn't get into that,

0:44:20.160 --> 0:44:24.479
<v Speaker 2>but we should do an an Yeah, well we should

0:44:24.520 --> 0:44:27.640
<v Speaker 2>do more subs cable episode. And actually just in terms

0:44:27.680 --> 0:44:31.760
<v Speaker 2>of data center siting, like access to you know, latency

0:44:31.840 --> 0:44:34.399
<v Speaker 2>risk and where it needs to be, et cetera. It's

0:44:34.440 --> 0:44:35.520
<v Speaker 2>something we should talk about more.

0:44:35.640 --> 0:44:36.319
<v Speaker 3>Shall we leave it there?

0:44:36.360 --> 0:44:37.279
<v Speaker 4>For leave it there?

0:44:37.440 --> 0:44:39.760
<v Speaker 3>This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

0:44:39.880 --> 0:44:42.759
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and.

0:44:42.680 --> 0:44:45.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm joll Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

0:44:45.400 --> 0:44:49.000
<v Speaker 2>Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Carman Arman Dashel Bennett

0:44:49.000 --> 0:44:51.520
<v Speaker 2>at Dashbot and kill Brooks at kill Brooks. For more

0:44:51.560 --> 0:44:54.040
<v Speaker 2>odd Laws content, go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd

0:44:54.040 --> 0:44:56.759
<v Speaker 2>Lots with the daily newsletter and all of our episodes

0:44:56.920 --> 0:44:58.920
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0:44:58.920 --> 0:45:02.799
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0:45:03.040 --> 0:45:05.880
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0:45:05.920 --> 0:45:09.080
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