1 00:00:15,396 --> 00:00:21,196 Speaker 1: Pushkin. There's a place in our world where the known 2 00:00:21,356 --> 00:00:25,796 Speaker 1: things go, A corridor of the mind, lined with shelves, 3 00:00:26,196 --> 00:00:33,156 Speaker 1: stocked with proof, and cluttered with snacks. Here on top 4 00:00:33,196 --> 00:00:35,756 Speaker 1: of this old television set, a pack of M and m's, 5 00:00:36,116 --> 00:00:40,556 Speaker 1: Oh does the TV still work? I've listened to everybody 6 00:00:40,996 --> 00:00:44,716 Speaker 1: on TV and radio. I've read the papers and magazines. 7 00:00:45,156 --> 00:00:50,156 Speaker 1: I've tried, but I'm still confused. Who's right? What's right? 8 00:00:50,796 --> 00:00:54,676 Speaker 1: What should I believe? What are the facts? How can 9 00:00:54,716 --> 00:00:59,276 Speaker 1: I tell? Yish sounds like something I would say. That's 10 00:00:59,276 --> 00:01:03,556 Speaker 1: why I come here to this place, this cabinet of curiosities, 11 00:01:04,036 --> 00:01:07,036 Speaker 1: a place that stores the facts that matter and matters 12 00:01:07,036 --> 00:01:10,676 Speaker 1: a fact, it's all that stays between a reasonable doubt 13 00:01:11,076 --> 00:01:14,996 Speaker 1: and the chaos of uncertainty. It lies in a time 14 00:01:15,076 --> 00:01:18,996 Speaker 1: between now and then. The sign on the door reads 15 00:01:19,036 --> 00:01:24,796 Speaker 1: the last Archive. Step through that door to a studio 16 00:01:25,076 --> 00:01:31,836 Speaker 1: at the Columbia Broadcasting System on Election Night nineteen fifty two, 17 00:01:32,756 --> 00:01:35,476 Speaker 1: Good eighth and everyone. This was Walter grind Guide speaking 18 00:01:35,476 --> 00:01:39,036 Speaker 1: to you from CBS Television. Election headquarters are in New 19 00:01:39,116 --> 00:01:42,316 Speaker 1: York City. The vague Election Night nineteen fifty two, the 20 00:01:42,396 --> 00:01:46,796 Speaker 1: year when the United States fixed its thirty President, Welcome 21 00:01:46,836 --> 00:01:51,596 Speaker 1: to election Night. But Election Night nineteen fifty two wasn't 22 00:01:51,636 --> 00:01:55,436 Speaker 1: just any night, because everything you know about how campaigns 23 00:01:55,436 --> 00:02:00,516 Speaker 1: are run and how results are announced, polls, targeted advertising, 24 00:02:00,996 --> 00:02:05,756 Speaker 1: breathless television coverage, edge of your seat, computer projections, it 25 00:02:05,916 --> 00:02:09,716 Speaker 1: all started right here in nineteen fifty two, with Walter 26 00:02:09,796 --> 00:02:13,156 Speaker 1: Cronkite just settling in for the long night ahead and 27 00:02:13,316 --> 00:02:17,636 Speaker 1: CBS Studio forty one on the third floor of Grand 28 00:02:17,676 --> 00:02:24,516 Speaker 1: Central Station, New York. As CBS's coverage begins, the camera 29 00:02:24,596 --> 00:02:29,756 Speaker 1: pans across a crowded, frantic newsroom, teletype machines, adding machines, 30 00:02:30,116 --> 00:02:34,796 Speaker 1: paper spread everywhere, dozens of telephones, some guys smoking at 31 00:02:34,796 --> 00:02:37,156 Speaker 1: the back of the room near a giant wall map 32 00:02:37,316 --> 00:02:40,316 Speaker 1: of the United States, a map that CBS will fill 33 00:02:40,356 --> 00:02:43,476 Speaker 1: out as the returns come in. They couldn't color the 34 00:02:43,516 --> 00:02:47,276 Speaker 1: states red and blue, because in nineteen fifty two hardly 35 00:02:47,316 --> 00:02:51,716 Speaker 1: anyone had a color TV. Instead, states that went Democrat 36 00:02:51,796 --> 00:02:55,996 Speaker 1: would be covered with black. Republicans got stripes. Not so 37 00:02:56,116 --> 00:03:01,036 Speaker 1: much elephants as zebras bomby weather over most of the 38 00:03:01,156 --> 00:03:05,556 Speaker 1: United States today, and a record turnout apparently throughout the 39 00:03:05,716 --> 00:03:09,316 Speaker 1: United States, a record turnout so many votes to out. 40 00:03:10,116 --> 00:03:12,996 Speaker 1: This election would change how Americans predicted the outcome of 41 00:03:12,996 --> 00:03:16,676 Speaker 1: the election. It would change all sorts of things about elections. 42 00:03:17,276 --> 00:03:20,276 Speaker 1: But let me first remind you who was running. The 43 00:03:20,356 --> 00:03:25,676 Speaker 1: Republicans put forward as their candidate General Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ike, 44 00:03:26,236 --> 00:03:31,636 Speaker 1: the general behind D Day, military man, grandfather, straight shooter. 45 00:03:32,476 --> 00:03:37,036 Speaker 1: Republicans came up with the slogan, I like Ike, I President, 46 00:03:37,076 --> 00:03:43,276 Speaker 1: I President, I President President, and everybody really did like Ike. 47 00:03:43,916 --> 00:03:47,396 Speaker 1: This is the election where a likability became a thing 48 00:03:48,476 --> 00:03:51,916 Speaker 1: for the Democrats. The incumbent, Harry S. Truman was out. 49 00:03:52,436 --> 00:03:55,636 Speaker 1: The Democrat who wanted to be in was Illinois Governor 50 00:03:55,676 --> 00:04:00,996 Speaker 1: Adlai E. Stevenson. Stevenson wasn't affable or folksy like Eisenhower. 51 00:04:01,396 --> 00:04:07,036 Speaker 1: He was learned and experienced, dignified, he might even say aristocratic. 52 00:04:08,356 --> 00:04:11,516 Speaker 1: Stevenson had and born to a political family. His grandfather 53 00:04:11,556 --> 00:04:16,116 Speaker 1: had been Grover Cleveland's vice president. Stevenson held himself above 54 00:04:16,236 --> 00:04:20,316 Speaker 1: the messiness, the tackiness of campaigns. Trustworthy. He was supposed 55 00:04:20,356 --> 00:04:30,756 Speaker 1: to be trustworthy. Both Stevenson a man you can believe 56 00:04:31,036 --> 00:04:37,356 Speaker 1: in the general versus the governor likable Ike versus the 57 00:04:37,596 --> 00:04:42,396 Speaker 1: man you can believe in sin anyway. Like Walter Cronkite said, 58 00:04:42,876 --> 00:04:45,356 Speaker 1: voting in the nineteen fifty two race looked to be 59 00:04:45,396 --> 00:04:48,756 Speaker 1: a record turnout, a turnout so big that the wire 60 00:04:48,796 --> 00:04:50,756 Speaker 1: Service thought it might take until the next day to 61 00:04:50,796 --> 00:04:52,996 Speaker 1: count the votes. We're going to be giving you all 62 00:04:53,036 --> 00:04:55,596 Speaker 1: of the figures just as quickly as we can, but 63 00:04:55,676 --> 00:04:58,716 Speaker 1: we'll no other results sometime the night, early in the morning, 64 00:04:59,556 --> 00:05:02,996 Speaker 1: results that very night that would be fast, so fast. 65 00:05:03,636 --> 00:05:06,636 Speaker 1: Historians sometimes call this era after the Second World War 66 00:05:06,996 --> 00:05:10,916 Speaker 1: the Great Acceleration. There were races, the arms race, the 67 00:05:10,956 --> 00:05:14,556 Speaker 1: space race, even NASCAR racing started then, but in a 68 00:05:14,596 --> 00:05:20,996 Speaker 1: bigger way. Everything got sped up, transportation, communication, production, consumption, everything. 69 00:05:22,036 --> 00:05:24,316 Speaker 1: Knowledge is to take the form of mysteries, things only 70 00:05:24,356 --> 00:05:27,596 Speaker 1: God could know. Then came facts, then numbers, and then 71 00:05:27,716 --> 00:05:31,756 Speaker 1: during the Great Acceleration, numbers began to yield to data, 72 00:05:31,956 --> 00:05:35,476 Speaker 1: including the votes counted on election night. CBS wanted to 73 00:05:35,476 --> 00:05:42,036 Speaker 1: count them faster than anyone else. Welcome to the Last Archive, 74 00:05:42,236 --> 00:05:44,836 Speaker 1: the show about how we know what we know, how 75 00:05:44,876 --> 00:05:47,756 Speaker 1: we used to know things, and why it seems sometimes 76 00:05:47,796 --> 00:05:50,876 Speaker 1: lately as if we don't know anything at all. I'm 77 00:05:50,956 --> 00:05:53,596 Speaker 1: Jill Lapoor on the edge of my seat, waiting for 78 00:05:53,636 --> 00:05:57,956 Speaker 1: the returns to come in. Aside from all those television cameras, 79 00:05:57,996 --> 00:06:00,596 Speaker 1: there was another machine in the CBS studio on election 80 00:06:00,716 --> 00:06:04,516 Speaker 1: Night nineteen fifty two, a machine most Americans had never 81 00:06:04,556 --> 00:06:13,876 Speaker 1: seen before, a console blinking. The development of modern electronic 82 00:06:13,996 --> 00:06:19,956 Speaker 1: digital computers began with early man, who used his digits 83 00:06:20,076 --> 00:06:23,796 Speaker 1: or fingers to keep track of the things around him 84 00:06:23,996 --> 00:06:31,076 Speaker 1: one weapon, two animals, and three wins. A few thousand 85 00:06:31,196 --> 00:06:34,876 Speaker 1: years after that Caveman, the first general purpose digital computers 86 00:06:34,916 --> 00:06:37,556 Speaker 1: were built by the Allies in the Second World War. 87 00:06:38,116 --> 00:06:41,756 Speaker 1: They were used to calculate missile trajectories and to break codes. 88 00:06:42,756 --> 00:06:46,516 Speaker 1: After the war, the first commercial digital computer was built 89 00:06:46,556 --> 00:06:50,716 Speaker 1: by an office equipment company called Remington Rand. I guess 90 00:06:50,756 --> 00:06:52,956 Speaker 1: because there were more things to count than one weapon, 91 00:06:53,236 --> 00:06:57,396 Speaker 1: two animals, and three wives. Even through the use of 92 00:06:57,436 --> 00:07:01,516 Speaker 1: present day office equipment, it becomes increasingly difficult to process 93 00:07:01,516 --> 00:07:05,516 Speaker 1: this accumulation to obtain the information we need. So many facts, 94 00:07:05,916 --> 00:07:10,036 Speaker 1: so many numbers, so much data. Human Khan needed a 95 00:07:10,196 --> 00:07:13,116 Speaker 1: new kind of machine to meet this need for high 96 00:07:13,116 --> 00:07:16,996 Speaker 1: speed data processing. The scientists and technicians of the Eckert 97 00:07:16,996 --> 00:07:20,596 Speaker 1: Mauchley division of Remington Rand have created a miracle of 98 00:07:20,636 --> 00:07:29,316 Speaker 1: electronic development, UNIVAC, a complete electronic system for sorting, classifying, computing, 99 00:07:29,476 --> 00:07:35,476 Speaker 1: and decision making. The UNIVAC the Universal Automatic Computer. Remington 100 00:07:35,596 --> 00:07:38,996 Speaker 1: Rand had sold one to the US Census Bureau to 101 00:07:39,116 --> 00:07:43,876 Speaker 1: count the nineteen fifty census. Right now, UNIVAK is handling 102 00:07:43,916 --> 00:07:48,956 Speaker 1: automatically and economically unbelievable volumes of statistical work for the 103 00:07:49,036 --> 00:07:52,836 Speaker 1: United States Bureau of the Census. Work that formerly took 104 00:07:52,876 --> 00:07:56,036 Speaker 1: weeks and months to do is now being done in 105 00:07:56,076 --> 00:08:00,436 Speaker 1: a matter of hours by UNIVAK. Okay, so the Census 106 00:08:00,476 --> 00:08:03,276 Speaker 1: Bureau needed the machine to count the census. But who 107 00:08:03,276 --> 00:08:06,556 Speaker 1: else could possibly need a crazy, expensive UNIVAC, a machine 108 00:08:06,596 --> 00:08:09,916 Speaker 1: the size of a small truck. Hardly anyone, it seemed. 109 00:08:10,636 --> 00:08:12,996 Speaker 1: But Remington Rand wanted to sell them, so they had 110 00:08:12,996 --> 00:08:15,916 Speaker 1: to keep pitching them and pitching them and pitching them. 111 00:08:16,156 --> 00:08:20,556 Speaker 1: UNIVAK is rapidly turning out answers, answers which have profound 112 00:08:20,596 --> 00:08:26,596 Speaker 1: significance in the lives of all of us. Maybe UNIVAC 113 00:08:26,676 --> 00:08:30,396 Speaker 1: could count votes. Maybe on election night, UNIVAC could even 114 00:08:30,396 --> 00:08:34,076 Speaker 1: know the winner before any human could. Maybe the UNIVAC 115 00:08:34,196 --> 00:08:37,356 Speaker 1: might actually get it right, because in the last election, 116 00:08:37,876 --> 00:08:41,876 Speaker 1: everyone had gotten it wrong. Thomas Dewey and his family 117 00:08:41,956 --> 00:08:45,916 Speaker 1: waited expectantly for a concession. In nineteen forty eight, Truman 118 00:08:45,996 --> 00:08:49,356 Speaker 1: had run against the Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey. 119 00:08:50,116 --> 00:08:53,836 Speaker 1: All the big posters were sure Dewey would win. Reporters 120 00:08:53,836 --> 00:08:57,236 Speaker 1: were just as sure. The Chicago Tribune went to press early, 121 00:08:57,716 --> 00:09:01,316 Speaker 1: too early, with one hundred and fifty thousand papers bearing 122 00:09:01,356 --> 00:09:06,676 Speaker 1: the headline Dewey defeats Truman. Dear listener, he did not 123 00:09:08,116 --> 00:09:11,076 Speaker 1: a man of the people had accomplished a political miracle. 124 00:09:11,676 --> 00:09:14,956 Speaker 1: At his home in Independence, Missouri. President Tillman accepted the 125 00:09:14,996 --> 00:09:19,676 Speaker 1: congratulations of the nation. TV got it wrong, too, But 126 00:09:19,796 --> 00:09:23,036 Speaker 1: TV didn't matter in nineteen forty eight, first because hardly 127 00:09:23,036 --> 00:09:26,236 Speaker 1: anyone owned a television set then, and second, the TV 128 00:09:26,316 --> 00:09:30,116 Speaker 1: coverage in nineteen forty eight was basically just live film 129 00:09:30,156 --> 00:09:33,996 Speaker 1: of radio guys snoozing and waiting for the returns. But 130 00:09:34,116 --> 00:09:37,436 Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty two everything was supposed to be different. 131 00:09:37,756 --> 00:09:41,196 Speaker 1: People finally had television sets. Watching would be fun, the 132 00:09:41,196 --> 00:09:44,996 Speaker 1: announcers would call it right. So back to election night 133 00:09:45,076 --> 00:09:48,636 Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty two. It seems to me that television 134 00:09:48,716 --> 00:09:52,196 Speaker 1: has certainly come into its own this year. This time, 135 00:09:52,276 --> 00:09:56,436 Speaker 1: everything seems to be specially designed for television. CBS had 136 00:09:56,436 --> 00:09:58,436 Speaker 1: put a lot of effort and money into its coverage, 137 00:09:58,476 --> 00:10:01,396 Speaker 1: every last bell and whistle. They'd also made it into 138 00:10:01,436 --> 00:10:05,196 Speaker 1: a race. They really wanted to call the election early. Ideally, 139 00:10:05,276 --> 00:10:09,116 Speaker 1: they wanted to call the election first, except they didn't 140 00:10:09,116 --> 00:10:11,116 Speaker 1: want to call it so early that they'd get it wrong. 141 00:10:11,996 --> 00:10:15,476 Speaker 1: But in case that happened, they needed a scapegoat. Enter 142 00:10:16,076 --> 00:10:20,996 Speaker 1: the computer. Millions of Americans had televisions, but how many 143 00:10:21,076 --> 00:10:24,956 Speaker 1: had computers. None. At the time, there were, by my count, 144 00:10:25,236 --> 00:10:29,116 Speaker 1: six computers in the whole country. It's possible I have 145 00:10:29,196 --> 00:10:33,316 Speaker 1: my numbers wrong. Remember I am only human. But here's 146 00:10:33,356 --> 00:10:36,716 Speaker 1: where what CBS wanted and what Remington Rand wanted lined 147 00:10:36,796 --> 00:10:39,996 Speaker 1: up perfectly. Remington Ran needed a chance to show how 148 00:10:40,116 --> 00:10:44,876 Speaker 1: useful computers are, a showcase. CBS needed a stunt and 149 00:10:44,996 --> 00:10:47,996 Speaker 1: also a scapegoat. It was a match made in heaven. 150 00:10:48,756 --> 00:10:51,716 Speaker 1: These things tend to seem inevitable after the fact, but 151 00:10:51,796 --> 00:10:55,036 Speaker 1: of course history doesn't work that way. Most things happened 152 00:10:55,036 --> 00:10:58,316 Speaker 1: by accident. A few months before election day, a guy 153 00:10:58,356 --> 00:11:00,276 Speaker 1: from CBS went out to lunch with a guy from 154 00:11:00,316 --> 00:11:03,716 Speaker 1: Remington Rand. CBS wanted to put in a big order 155 00:11:03,716 --> 00:11:07,196 Speaker 1: for you know, typewriters and calculators, the sorts of machines 156 00:11:07,196 --> 00:11:09,996 Speaker 1: that figured it needed to stock up on for election night. 157 00:11:10,516 --> 00:11:14,916 Speaker 1: But the Remington Ran guy said, have you considered a UNIVAC. 158 00:11:16,236 --> 00:11:19,556 Speaker 1: CBS's director of News and Public affairs guy called Sig 159 00:11:19,636 --> 00:11:22,636 Speaker 1: Mickelson heard about the lunch. He decided to go to 160 00:11:22,676 --> 00:11:25,396 Speaker 1: the Remington Ran factory in Philadelphia to take a look. 161 00:11:26,236 --> 00:11:29,636 Speaker 1: He hopped on the train and went to meet the UNIVAC. 162 00:11:32,476 --> 00:11:36,556 Speaker 1: The machine was a monster, a massive electronic vacuum tubes 163 00:11:36,676 --> 00:11:40,556 Speaker 1: interconnected by miles of copper wire and cooled by noisy fans. 164 00:11:41,636 --> 00:11:43,796 Speaker 1: Michelson was supposed to meet a colleague of his there 165 00:11:43,956 --> 00:11:50,556 Speaker 1: in Philadelphia, the dashing CBS correspondent Charles Collingwood. As legend 166 00:11:50,596 --> 00:11:54,076 Speaker 1: has it, Collingwood was running lee when he arrived. The 167 00:11:54,156 --> 00:11:59,156 Speaker 1: printer hooked up to the UNIVAC spat out a short message, Collingwood, 168 00:11:59,396 --> 00:12:03,636 Speaker 1: you are a lap Where have you been? This is 169 00:12:03,636 --> 00:12:06,436 Speaker 1: what's known among historians is a fact too good to 170 00:12:06,516 --> 00:12:09,716 Speaker 1: check in this sense that this never happened. But I'm 171 00:12:09,716 --> 00:12:12,676 Speaker 1: telling you about it because Michelson said it happened, and 172 00:12:12,756 --> 00:12:16,476 Speaker 1: I love it. Back to things that did happen. CBS 173 00:12:16,516 --> 00:12:19,156 Speaker 1: decided to proceed with what it called I'm not making 174 00:12:19,156 --> 00:12:26,156 Speaker 1: this up project. Here's the deal they worked out. CBS 175 00:12:26,196 --> 00:12:28,796 Speaker 1: would get the services of Univac for Election night, but 176 00:12:28,836 --> 00:12:31,836 Speaker 1: the machine would stay in Philadelphia. It was just too 177 00:12:31,836 --> 00:12:34,436 Speaker 1: big to bring to New York. It weighed sixteen thousand 178 00:12:34,476 --> 00:12:37,756 Speaker 1: pounds and had five thousand vacuum tubes. But the CBS 179 00:12:37,756 --> 00:12:39,716 Speaker 1: studio in New York needed to look like it had 180 00:12:39,756 --> 00:12:42,676 Speaker 1: a computer on set, so Charles Collingwood would sit at 181 00:12:42,676 --> 00:12:45,916 Speaker 1: the UNIVAC looking thing of magic a console. There's actually 182 00:12:45,956 --> 00:12:49,596 Speaker 1: just a dummy, a fake. The giant computer prop at 183 00:12:49,636 --> 00:12:53,356 Speaker 1: CBS did, however, light up. It blinked for the benefit 184 00:12:53,396 --> 00:12:55,516 Speaker 1: of viewers at home, as if it were the real 185 00:12:55,676 --> 00:13:01,396 Speaker 1: electronic brain thinking. It's like a Christmas tree light timer basically, 186 00:13:01,636 --> 00:13:03,636 Speaker 1: and if you watch it long enough you see the 187 00:13:03,676 --> 00:13:08,756 Speaker 1: pattern of the lights. Just appened. I first learned about 188 00:13:08,756 --> 00:13:13,076 Speaker 1: the story in a dissertation, an amazing dissertation called Battle 189 00:13:13,116 --> 00:13:16,716 Speaker 1: of the Brains by Ira Chenoi, and I don't say 190 00:13:16,756 --> 00:13:20,116 Speaker 1: dissertations are amazing all that often. Chenoi is a professor 191 00:13:20,116 --> 00:13:22,676 Speaker 1: at the University of Maryland. But before he got his PhD, 192 00:13:22,756 --> 00:13:25,396 Speaker 1: he was the director of Computer assisted Reporting at the 193 00:13:25,436 --> 00:13:29,756 Speaker 1: Washington Post. Before that, he'd been an investigative reporter. I 194 00:13:29,796 --> 00:13:32,556 Speaker 1: wanted to visit him in his office in Maryland so 195 00:13:32,596 --> 00:13:35,836 Speaker 1: that we could watch this footage together, footage that he'd 196 00:13:35,836 --> 00:13:39,916 Speaker 1: discovered in the archives. It looks great. It does look 197 00:13:39,956 --> 00:13:41,716 Speaker 1: really good. And actually, I don't know if you can 198 00:13:41,716 --> 00:13:44,196 Speaker 1: see it here, but I actually saw one of these 199 00:13:45,236 --> 00:13:46,996 Speaker 1: when I went out to the Computer Instry Museum, and 200 00:13:47,036 --> 00:13:49,876 Speaker 1: I think it has an ashtray in it. Actually, Chenoy 201 00:13:49,956 --> 00:13:53,076 Speaker 1: and I watched the footage where Walter Cronkite and Charles 202 00:13:53,116 --> 00:13:56,756 Speaker 1: Collingwood on election night wait for the first prediction from 203 00:13:56,756 --> 00:14:00,476 Speaker 1: the machine, and now perhaps a prediction on how this 204 00:14:00,716 --> 00:14:03,676 Speaker 1: voting is going. What's the vote that has been so 205 00:14:03,836 --> 00:14:07,276 Speaker 1: far means, let's turn to that miracle of the modern age, 206 00:14:07,356 --> 00:14:11,636 Speaker 1: the electronic brain universe and the Charles Collingwood. Collingwood's on 207 00:14:11,676 --> 00:14:15,676 Speaker 1: live television looking at a display offscreen, waiting for a 208 00:14:15,756 --> 00:14:18,516 Speaker 1: prediction that he's supposed to read out loud. UNIVAC is 209 00:14:18,556 --> 00:14:20,556 Speaker 1: going to try to predict the winner for us, just 210 00:14:20,756 --> 00:14:23,836 Speaker 1: as early as we can possibly get the returns. Then 211 00:14:24,476 --> 00:14:27,676 Speaker 1: this is not a joke or a trick. It's an experiment. 212 00:14:27,916 --> 00:14:29,916 Speaker 1: We think it's going to work, we don't know. We 213 00:14:29,956 --> 00:14:34,516 Speaker 1: hope it'll work, but there's nothing coming in. It's incredibly 214 00:14:34,516 --> 00:14:38,156 Speaker 1: awkward to watch. They didn't call this stuff cringe TV then, 215 00:14:38,756 --> 00:14:42,436 Speaker 1: but this is cringe TV. Can you say something? UNIVAC, 216 00:14:43,796 --> 00:14:46,156 Speaker 1: have you got anything to say to the television audience? 217 00:14:46,556 --> 00:14:50,196 Speaker 1: Apparently the UNIVAC in Philadelphia had made a prediction. It 218 00:14:50,356 --> 00:14:54,196 Speaker 1: predicted that Eisenhower would win in a landslide, but given 219 00:14:54,196 --> 00:14:56,796 Speaker 1: that exit polls had the race neck and neck, that 220 00:14:56,916 --> 00:15:02,276 Speaker 1: prediction seemed bananas. So, supposedly, not wanting to screw up Remington, 221 00:15:02,356 --> 00:15:04,836 Speaker 1: Rand decided not to send that prediction on to CBS 222 00:15:04,956 --> 00:15:09,476 Speaker 1: in New York. Remington's second guest its own machine, which 223 00:15:09,556 --> 00:15:13,756 Speaker 1: left Collingwood hanging and CBS without a prediction to announce. 224 00:15:14,036 --> 00:15:18,676 Speaker 1: You're a very impolite in Shane, I must say, it 225 00:15:18,836 --> 00:15:21,676 Speaker 1: was as if the whole election had suddenly gone off script, 226 00:15:22,356 --> 00:15:24,716 Speaker 1: when in fact, so much of the campaign had been 227 00:15:24,756 --> 00:15:29,796 Speaker 1: so entirely scripted. There's more to this story. There are documents, 228 00:15:30,036 --> 00:15:33,956 Speaker 1: There is evidence. My producer Ben has filed a copy 229 00:15:33,996 --> 00:15:37,796 Speaker 1: of that campaign script in his desk here in the 230 00:15:37,916 --> 00:15:47,236 Speaker 1: last archive. So the supercomputer UNIVAC failed its first public 231 00:15:47,276 --> 00:15:50,676 Speaker 1: audition as the predictor of voter behavior, at least though 232 00:15:50,716 --> 00:15:53,836 Speaker 1: it was something obvious, a giant machine with these blinking 233 00:15:53,916 --> 00:15:58,076 Speaker 1: lights right there on television. A lot more subtle stuff 234 00:15:58,156 --> 00:16:02,236 Speaker 1: changed during that election, too, stuff that's been forgotten because 235 00:16:02,276 --> 00:16:09,756 Speaker 1: now it's everywhere President I President. Television advert that was 236 00:16:09,796 --> 00:16:13,036 Speaker 1: new two not jingles. There'd been campaign song since forever. 237 00:16:13,596 --> 00:16:15,996 Speaker 1: But nineteen fifty two saw the introduction of a particular 238 00:16:16,076 --> 00:16:20,796 Speaker 1: kind of television advertising, the targeted political ad. Lately, all 239 00:16:20,836 --> 00:16:24,396 Speaker 1: political ads are targeted. They're targeted by computers as unairing 240 00:16:24,436 --> 00:16:28,116 Speaker 1: his missiles. But in nineteen fifty two, targeting was done 241 00:16:28,116 --> 00:16:32,516 Speaker 1: by hand, and political television advertising was invented by a 242 00:16:32,556 --> 00:16:38,956 Speaker 1: man named Rosser Reeves. Think Don Draper and Madmen, but 243 00:16:39,076 --> 00:16:43,796 Speaker 1: even slicker the very best Madison Avenue could offer. Rosser 244 00:16:43,876 --> 00:16:46,476 Speaker 1: Reeves he was the man. He owned one of the 245 00:16:46,476 --> 00:16:49,476 Speaker 1: world's biggest rubies. He led the US Jess team on 246 00:16:49,516 --> 00:16:53,276 Speaker 1: a trip to the Soviet Union. He invested in island 247 00:16:53,356 --> 00:16:57,636 Speaker 1: real estate. He captained yachts. He flew planes mainly, though 248 00:16:57,956 --> 00:17:02,556 Speaker 1: he created modern television advertising. Reeves decided that there were 249 00:17:02,596 --> 00:17:05,356 Speaker 1: many advantages to be gained by adopting a new form 250 00:17:05,436 --> 00:17:10,596 Speaker 1: of political advertising, the short spot commercial. Nicholson, that executive 251 00:17:10,636 --> 00:17:13,796 Speaker 1: from CBS who brought in the UNIVAC, he knew all 252 00:17:13,836 --> 00:17:17,316 Speaker 1: about Reeves he later wrote about it. He had a 253 00:17:17,396 --> 00:17:20,516 Speaker 1: hunch that the sixty second advertising spot could be used 254 00:17:20,516 --> 00:17:23,516 Speaker 1: in the way the soap, food and cigarette companies were 255 00:17:23,596 --> 00:17:27,956 Speaker 1: using them with spectacular success. In nineteen fifty two, Reeves 256 00:17:27,996 --> 00:17:31,916 Speaker 1: took his talents to politics. He went to the Republican Convention. 257 00:17:32,156 --> 00:17:37,276 Speaker 1: The first convention broadcasts start to finish on television. Reeves 258 00:17:37,356 --> 00:17:40,156 Speaker 1: was there, but instead of watching from the convention hall, 259 00:17:40,436 --> 00:17:43,356 Speaker 1: he watched the keynote speech on TV from a hotel room. 260 00:17:43,916 --> 00:17:47,756 Speaker 1: The crowds inside the stadium were enthusiastic, but watching the 261 00:17:47,756 --> 00:17:51,756 Speaker 1: convention on TV, Reeves thought the speeches were dreadful, too 262 00:17:51,956 --> 00:17:56,036 Speaker 1: many ideas, too many words. So he devised a test 263 00:17:56,276 --> 00:18:00,396 Speaker 1: to see which people remembered better a televised speech or 264 00:18:00,436 --> 00:18:04,956 Speaker 1: a televised commercial. Less than ten percent of people remembered 265 00:18:04,956 --> 00:18:09,956 Speaker 1: the speech remembered the commercial. Ree thought that was because 266 00:18:09,996 --> 00:18:13,956 Speaker 1: speeches usually have a lot of ideas, too many for television. 267 00:18:14,596 --> 00:18:18,316 Speaker 1: He believed in something he called the unique selling proposition, 268 00:18:19,396 --> 00:18:26,836 Speaker 1: the USP. What is a USP. It's a theory of 269 00:18:26,876 --> 00:18:31,916 Speaker 1: the ideal selling concept. It is a condensation, a verbal shorthand, 270 00:18:31,916 --> 00:18:35,716 Speaker 1: if you will, of what makes a campaign work. It 271 00:18:35,836 --> 00:18:39,836 Speaker 1: is the hidden secret of literally thousands of the most 272 00:18:39,876 --> 00:18:45,636 Speaker 1: successful advertising campaigns ever written. Reeves often made pitches over 273 00:18:45,716 --> 00:18:48,996 Speaker 1: meetings at Manhattan Swinky twenty one club, where everyone was 274 00:18:49,036 --> 00:18:53,076 Speaker 1: always several martinis deep. He told them that his unique 275 00:18:53,076 --> 00:18:58,756 Speaker 1: selling proposition had three rules. Number one, each advertisement must 276 00:18:58,796 --> 00:19:01,836 Speaker 1: make a proposition to the consumer, not just words, not 277 00:19:01,956 --> 00:19:06,756 Speaker 1: just product puffery. Each advertisement must say to each reader, 278 00:19:07,196 --> 00:19:12,356 Speaker 1: buy this product and you'll get this specific benefit. Number two, 279 00:19:12,556 --> 00:19:15,236 Speaker 1: the proposition must be the one that the competition either 280 00:19:15,276 --> 00:19:19,076 Speaker 1: cannot or does not offer. Number Three, the proposition must 281 00:19:19,076 --> 00:19:21,716 Speaker 1: be so strong that it can move the mass millions. 282 00:19:22,476 --> 00:19:26,756 Speaker 1: That's from reeves book Reality and Advertising. My producer Ben 283 00:19:26,796 --> 00:19:28,436 Speaker 1: and I decided to go get a copy of it. 284 00:19:29,196 --> 00:19:31,276 Speaker 1: So we went to the basement of Widener Library at 285 00:19:31,276 --> 00:19:34,756 Speaker 1: Harvard together. And when I say basement, I mean that 286 00:19:34,836 --> 00:19:37,356 Speaker 1: in the deepest sense. To get to Reeves, you take 287 00:19:37,396 --> 00:19:40,316 Speaker 1: the elevator four stories down and then you walk through 288 00:19:40,316 --> 00:19:43,876 Speaker 1: a tunnel. So the Fuci tunnel, it's so much better 289 00:19:43,916 --> 00:19:45,476 Speaker 1: that it used to be here, used to be these 290 00:19:45,916 --> 00:19:49,036 Speaker 1: big plastic buckets down here because they're just all these 291 00:19:49,556 --> 00:19:52,916 Speaker 1: seal these pipes. They would just but you know what, 292 00:19:53,036 --> 00:19:54,836 Speaker 1: like what does it still have that humidity? You know 293 00:19:54,916 --> 00:19:59,436 Speaker 1: it's a humidity treatment smell. I think it would humiliate 294 00:19:59,476 --> 00:20:01,436 Speaker 1: Reeves to know this. But after you go through that 295 00:20:01,476 --> 00:20:04,676 Speaker 1: sweaty tunnel, you have to go down another level, down 296 00:20:04,716 --> 00:20:08,636 Speaker 1: another elevator to finally get to the stacks and the 297 00:20:08,716 --> 00:20:13,596 Speaker 1: shelf where his book is housed. His best advertisements all 298 00:20:13,676 --> 00:20:18,236 Speaker 1: follow those three rules of the USP. So wonder Bread 299 00:20:18,436 --> 00:20:22,396 Speaker 1: helps build strong bodies in twelve ways, Anderson gives you fast, fast, 300 00:20:22,476 --> 00:20:26,596 Speaker 1: fast relief. But my personal favorite was the campaign he 301 00:20:26,636 --> 00:20:31,116 Speaker 1: wrote for Eminem's Which man has the Eminem and chocolate 302 00:20:31,236 --> 00:20:36,956 Speaker 1: cann that's ordinary chocolate can it's melting, But this one 303 00:20:37,196 --> 00:20:42,116 Speaker 1: there's no chocolate mint because built chocolate melts in your mouth, 304 00:20:43,316 --> 00:20:46,236 Speaker 1: not in your hand. Reeves said Republicans should run ad 305 00:20:46,236 --> 00:20:51,516 Speaker 1: spots and sell Eisenhower like Eminem's. EIKE's campaign signed him 306 00:20:51,596 --> 00:20:54,916 Speaker 1: right up, even though Eisenhower himself had yet to be convinced. 307 00:20:56,356 --> 00:20:58,956 Speaker 1: Reeves took six weeks off and hold himself up in 308 00:20:58,956 --> 00:21:01,676 Speaker 1: a hotel to write ad copy. He had all of 309 00:21:01,716 --> 00:21:04,636 Speaker 1: Eisenhower's speech is sent over, but he didn't read them. 310 00:21:04,956 --> 00:21:07,396 Speaker 1: I was too busy with the political maelstrom to sit 311 00:21:07,436 --> 00:21:09,876 Speaker 1: down personally and read all of and how was rather 312 00:21:10,036 --> 00:21:13,356 Speaker 1: dreary speeches. So we had other people do that. They 313 00:21:13,436 --> 00:21:15,756 Speaker 1: drew up a list of topics that the general favored. 314 00:21:16,276 --> 00:21:19,396 Speaker 1: Reeves showed that list to George Gallop, the polster who 315 00:21:19,476 --> 00:21:23,076 Speaker 1: ransom numbers, and told Reeves which three topics pulled best 316 00:21:23,116 --> 00:21:29,356 Speaker 1: with voters. One corruption in government, two high prices and 317 00:21:29,436 --> 00:21:35,836 Speaker 1: high taxes. Three war. Those three topics still pull well. 318 00:21:36,076 --> 00:21:41,236 Speaker 1: They're evergreens today though computer driven targeted advertising, polling, and 319 00:21:41,316 --> 00:21:44,356 Speaker 1: election predictions are all tangled up on your iPhone as 320 00:21:44,356 --> 00:21:47,876 Speaker 1: if they're one thing. But they first got tangled up 321 00:21:48,156 --> 00:21:50,996 Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty two when the polsters and the admin. 322 00:21:51,556 --> 00:21:53,916 Speaker 1: We're actually doing much the same thing as the UNIVAC 323 00:21:54,076 --> 00:21:56,796 Speaker 1: was trying to do, running the numbers, coming up with 324 00:21:56,836 --> 00:22:00,396 Speaker 1: a prediction. Are we okay with that? I mean we are, 325 00:22:00,476 --> 00:22:02,996 Speaker 1: because this is our world. But still if we here 326 00:22:02,996 --> 00:22:06,276 Speaker 1: in the last archive are wondering who killed truth? I'm 327 00:22:06,276 --> 00:22:10,276 Speaker 1: looking at you, Rosser Reeves. Reeves had hired a friend 328 00:22:10,276 --> 00:22:12,036 Speaker 1: of his to run the numbers for him, a guy 329 00:22:12,076 --> 00:22:14,916 Speaker 1: named Michael Levin. Ben brought copies of what he found 330 00:22:14,916 --> 00:22:17,316 Speaker 1: in the archives when we went looking for Reeves's book 331 00:22:17,556 --> 00:22:22,156 Speaker 1: fifty thousand Leagues beneath the library. This one is Michael 332 00:22:22,236 --> 00:22:24,796 Speaker 1: Levin's plan. It's called how to ensure an Eisenhower victory 333 00:22:24,796 --> 00:22:28,156 Speaker 1: in November, And this is what Reeves commissioned his numbers 334 00:22:28,196 --> 00:22:30,556 Speaker 1: guy Levin, who worked at a different firm, Yeah, to 335 00:22:30,596 --> 00:22:33,236 Speaker 1: write up about basically how to target the ads, where 336 00:22:33,236 --> 00:22:37,236 Speaker 1: to run them, what counties, how often. This is a 337 00:22:37,276 --> 00:22:40,676 Speaker 1: smoking gun of micro targeted advertising right here. We haven't 338 00:22:40,756 --> 00:22:45,236 Speaker 1: ranked here. Levin carved the country into voting blocks, the 339 00:22:45,316 --> 00:22:48,356 Speaker 1: southern vote, the black vote, the farm vote, the middle class. 340 00:22:48,996 --> 00:22:52,076 Speaker 1: He thought this way since Roosevelt most of the country 341 00:22:52,116 --> 00:22:55,356 Speaker 1: had voted Democratic, but that could change now that the 342 00:22:55,396 --> 00:22:58,756 Speaker 1: economy was good. People weren't so keen on paying taxes anymore. 343 00:22:59,116 --> 00:23:01,236 Speaker 1: They'd rather keep their money and spend it on some 344 00:23:01,276 --> 00:23:03,436 Speaker 1: of the things they saw, and all those television ads 345 00:23:03,796 --> 00:23:07,596 Speaker 1: dishwashers and dog food. To make the electoral math work 346 00:23:07,636 --> 00:23:10,316 Speaker 1: in Republicans favor. Levin said they needed to flip the 347 00:23:10,396 --> 00:23:13,396 Speaker 1: vote in forty nine counties in twelve states where they 348 00:23:13,516 --> 00:23:16,716 Speaker 1: narrowly lost the last election. Levin called this block of 349 00:23:16,756 --> 00:23:20,356 Speaker 1: states the Great Lakes Girdle. This was at a time when, 350 00:23:20,596 --> 00:23:23,396 Speaker 1: by the way, people call parts of the country girdles, 351 00:23:23,636 --> 00:23:27,436 Speaker 1: and now we call them belts, which is sad to me. Anyway. 352 00:23:27,596 --> 00:23:31,676 Speaker 1: Forget kissing babies, shaking hands, and meeting voters, cultivating civic 353 00:23:31,716 --> 00:23:36,436 Speaker 1: life and political debate. Instead, Levin said, divide the electorate 354 00:23:36,436 --> 00:23:39,436 Speaker 1: into market segments and then blitz those key counties with 355 00:23:39,556 --> 00:23:46,036 Speaker 1: the custom made TV ads. Is there a new way 356 00:23:46,036 --> 00:23:49,596 Speaker 1: of campaigning that can guarantee victory for Eisenhower in November? 357 00:23:50,196 --> 00:23:54,116 Speaker 1: The answer is yes. Most people don't know the power 358 00:23:54,116 --> 00:23:57,476 Speaker 1: of spot. However, here are the cold facts. The humble 359 00:23:57,556 --> 00:24:00,956 Speaker 1: radio or TV spot can deliver more listeners for less 360 00:24:00,996 --> 00:24:06,516 Speaker 1: money than any other form advertising. This pitch, you may 361 00:24:06,516 --> 00:24:09,836 Speaker 1: have noticed, sounds a little bit different from the Loven plan, 362 00:24:10,356 --> 00:24:13,436 Speaker 1: but they were filed together in Roster's papers and the archives. 363 00:24:13,436 --> 00:24:15,276 Speaker 1: This is kind of like lipstick on a pig, though 364 00:24:15,316 --> 00:24:19,036 Speaker 1: like at least reefses, justlipstick, no pig. Here's the turn 365 00:24:19,716 --> 00:24:26,236 Speaker 1: where commercial television advertising becomes political television advertising just lipstick, 366 00:24:26,876 --> 00:24:32,076 Speaker 1: no pig Let us repeat that the humble radio or 367 00:24:32,156 --> 00:24:36,276 Speaker 1: TV spot can deliver more listeners for less money than 368 00:24:36,396 --> 00:24:39,156 Speaker 1: any other form of advertising. It is a way of 369 00:24:39,236 --> 00:24:43,636 Speaker 1: having a big town meeting but letting sixty million people 370 00:24:43,716 --> 00:24:47,196 Speaker 1: hear all the questions of answers. This technique is ideally 371 00:24:47,236 --> 00:24:51,276 Speaker 1: suited to Eisenhower's warm personality as opposed to the cold 372 00:24:51,316 --> 00:24:55,796 Speaker 1: intellectual approach of ADLEI. Stevenson. And because they are simple, 373 00:24:55,836 --> 00:24:59,076 Speaker 1: because they are quick, because they are short and uncomplicated, 374 00:24:59,276 --> 00:25:03,196 Speaker 1: the public will remember them like candy but heat, dirty hands, 375 00:25:03,476 --> 00:25:09,196 Speaker 1: problem solved, vote Eisenhower. In other words, they will penetrate. Yes, 376 00:25:09,396 --> 00:25:14,076 Speaker 1: they will penetrate the brains of sixty million critical voters, 377 00:25:14,236 --> 00:25:18,076 Speaker 1: where the more complicated and more elaborate political speeches won't 378 00:25:18,076 --> 00:25:21,636 Speaker 1: be remembered. And it's what the critical voters have in 379 00:25:21,676 --> 00:25:24,556 Speaker 1: their brains when they go into the Poland booths to counts. 380 00:25:26,796 --> 00:25:29,676 Speaker 1: But before he could get to voters brains, the eminem 381 00:25:29,676 --> 00:25:34,276 Speaker 1: men first had to get General Eisenhower on board. Eisenhower 382 00:25:34,396 --> 00:25:37,756 Speaker 1: was worried that these spots would be undignified. After all, 383 00:25:37,796 --> 00:25:41,876 Speaker 1: at the time, Eisenhower was president of Columbia University. He 384 00:25:41,956 --> 00:25:44,516 Speaker 1: wasn't as appalled as at least Stevenson would have been, 385 00:25:45,396 --> 00:25:48,876 Speaker 1: but he was still worried. So Reeves met the General 386 00:25:48,876 --> 00:25:53,756 Speaker 1: for lunch, probably over scotch, and wore him down. Well, General, 387 00:25:53,916 --> 00:25:56,716 Speaker 1: do you think it's all right for candidate to make 388 00:25:56,716 --> 00:26:01,676 Speaker 1: a thirty minute speech on television or radio? Yes? Or 389 00:26:01,716 --> 00:26:05,956 Speaker 1: would it be dignified to make a fifteen minute speech? Yes? 390 00:26:06,396 --> 00:26:09,036 Speaker 1: Would it be in order, perhaps to make a five 391 00:26:09,156 --> 00:26:13,476 Speaker 1: five minutes speech? Yes, I am sure a five minutes 392 00:26:13,476 --> 00:26:15,756 Speaker 1: speech would be an order if we could cut that 393 00:26:16,276 --> 00:26:21,476 Speaker 1: speech to one minute? Is there anything wrong with that? Okay, 394 00:26:21,676 --> 00:26:27,316 Speaker 1: let's go ahead, Or that's Reeves's account anyway. They filmed 395 00:26:27,356 --> 00:26:31,036 Speaker 1: the campaign spots all in one day in Manhattan. The 396 00:26:31,076 --> 00:26:34,196 Speaker 1: original idea was to run the spots in those targeted 397 00:26:34,236 --> 00:26:39,836 Speaker 1: markets we now call them swing precincts. Eisenhower answers America 398 00:26:40,036 --> 00:26:43,316 Speaker 1: in each spot, and everyday person asks the General a question. 399 00:26:43,836 --> 00:26:47,396 Speaker 1: Reeves had Eisenhower's answers written on huge posters so Eisenhower 400 00:26:47,396 --> 00:26:49,836 Speaker 1: wouldn't have to wear his glasses to read them. The 401 00:26:49,876 --> 00:26:53,356 Speaker 1: story goes that Eisenhower worked through Reeves's scripts so fast 402 00:26:53,396 --> 00:26:56,236 Speaker 1: that Reeves grabbed his typewriter and started to dash off 403 00:26:56,276 --> 00:27:02,156 Speaker 1: news scripts spots on the spot, General, the Democrats are 404 00:27:02,196 --> 00:27:04,676 Speaker 1: telling me I never had it so good? Can that 405 00:27:04,756 --> 00:27:08,596 Speaker 1: be true? When America's billions in depth, when prices are doubled, 406 00:27:08,636 --> 00:27:11,236 Speaker 1: When tech says, break our backs and we are still 407 00:27:11,236 --> 00:27:15,556 Speaker 1: fighting in Korea? Is tragic, and it's time for a change. 408 00:27:16,716 --> 00:27:19,916 Speaker 1: They filmed forty spots that day. A few days later, 409 00:27:19,956 --> 00:27:22,836 Speaker 1: the crew grabbed some tourists from around Midtown to go 410 00:27:22,916 --> 00:27:26,076 Speaker 1: on camera. The tourists were then prompted to ask the 411 00:27:26,236 --> 00:27:31,156 Speaker 1: very questions Eisenhower had already answered. Then Reeves's producers stitched 412 00:27:31,156 --> 00:27:34,676 Speaker 1: the spots together. They were the first television ads featuring 413 00:27:34,716 --> 00:27:39,396 Speaker 1: an American presidential candidate. You know what things cost today? 414 00:27:39,756 --> 00:27:43,876 Speaker 1: High prices are just driving me crazy. Yes, my mami 415 00:27:43,956 --> 00:27:46,716 Speaker 1: gets after me about the high cost of living. It's 416 00:27:46,756 --> 00:27:49,476 Speaker 1: another reason why I say is time for the change. 417 00:27:50,076 --> 00:27:52,476 Speaker 1: Time to get back to an honest dollar and an 418 00:27:52,476 --> 00:27:57,036 Speaker 1: honest dollars worth. At the filming, someone overheard Eisenhower say 419 00:27:57,956 --> 00:28:00,596 Speaker 1: to think that an old soldier should come to this, 420 00:28:01,876 --> 00:28:05,756 Speaker 1: but Rosser Reeves was delighted. Here was the unique selling 421 00:28:05,796 --> 00:28:10,716 Speaker 1: proposition President. But wait, the Democrats had a new television 422 00:28:10,796 --> 00:28:16,396 Speaker 1: strategy too. A man you can believe in ed La 423 00:28:16,556 --> 00:28:20,356 Speaker 1: Stevenson would go on TV and read his speeches, speeches 424 00:28:20,396 --> 00:28:23,116 Speaker 1: that were at the shortest, nearly a half an hour long, 425 00:28:23,556 --> 00:28:26,236 Speaker 1: and when he went over that time, the networks would 426 00:28:26,276 --> 00:28:30,116 Speaker 1: just cut him off mid sentence. The Stephenson campaign was 427 00:28:30,156 --> 00:28:33,236 Speaker 1: bringing sticks to a knife fight. The tragedy of it 428 00:28:33,316 --> 00:28:35,636 Speaker 1: all was that Stevenson had a lot of important things 429 00:28:35,636 --> 00:28:38,796 Speaker 1: to say about the problems confronting the nation. Better we 430 00:28:38,916 --> 00:28:42,516 Speaker 1: lose the election than mislead the people, and better we 431 00:28:42,636 --> 00:28:46,116 Speaker 1: lose than misgovern the people. Help me to do the 432 00:28:46,236 --> 00:28:49,996 Speaker 1: job in this autumn of conflict and of campaign. Help 433 00:28:50,076 --> 00:28:52,276 Speaker 1: me to do the job in the years of darkness, 434 00:28:52,276 --> 00:28:55,516 Speaker 1: of doubt and the prices which stretch beyond the horizon 435 00:28:55,996 --> 00:28:59,916 Speaker 1: of to Night's happy vision. And we will justify our 436 00:28:59,996 --> 00:29:04,356 Speaker 1: glorious passed and the loyalty of silent millions who looked 437 00:29:04,556 --> 00:29:11,076 Speaker 1: us for a compaion, for understanding and for honor. Honest 438 00:29:11,156 --> 00:29:15,156 Speaker 1: purpose was one of Stevenson's big themes. Treat people like citizens, 439 00:29:15,436 --> 00:29:17,916 Speaker 1: don't treat us like idiots, like consumers who can be 440 00:29:17,916 --> 00:29:21,516 Speaker 1: predicted and persuaded, but Stevenson wasn't any good at getting 441 00:29:21,556 --> 00:29:27,276 Speaker 1: that message across on television. Democrats, desperate, did everything they could. 442 00:29:27,276 --> 00:29:30,436 Speaker 1: They even got ahold of Rosseries' advertising plan, which was 443 00:29:30,476 --> 00:29:34,436 Speaker 1: supposed to be top secret. It made Stevenson's campaign advisors 444 00:29:34,476 --> 00:29:40,156 Speaker 1: steaming mad. They've invented a new kind of campaign, a 445 00:29:40,196 --> 00:29:43,956 Speaker 1: campaign conceived not by men who want us to face 446 00:29:44,036 --> 00:29:47,436 Speaker 1: the crucial issues of the day, but by the high 447 00:29:47,436 --> 00:29:52,796 Speaker 1: powered hucksters of Madison Avenue. They've conceived not an election 448 00:29:52,876 --> 00:29:57,436 Speaker 1: campaign in the usual sense, but a super colossal, multi 449 00:29:57,516 --> 00:30:02,636 Speaker 1: million dollar production designed to sell an inadequate ticket to 450 00:30:02,716 --> 00:30:07,556 Speaker 1: the American people in precisely the way they sell soap, toothpaste, 451 00:30:08,076 --> 00:30:13,516 Speaker 1: hair tonic, or bubble gum or M and MS. Stevenson's 452 00:30:13,516 --> 00:30:16,316 Speaker 1: campaign even asked the FCC to look into the legality 453 00:30:16,396 --> 00:30:20,796 Speaker 1: of the Republican campaign ad spots. They figured, stuff's got 454 00:30:20,796 --> 00:30:23,276 Speaker 1: to be illegal. Wasn't it an affront to everything a 455 00:30:23,316 --> 00:30:26,316 Speaker 1: democracy stood for, faith in the voter to weigh the 456 00:30:26,356 --> 00:30:30,036 Speaker 1: hard facts and make the call. But the FCC decided 457 00:30:30,076 --> 00:30:32,836 Speaker 1: there was nothing to be done. In the end, Republicans 458 00:30:32,876 --> 00:30:35,836 Speaker 1: spent one point five million dollars on television advertising in 459 00:30:35,916 --> 00:30:41,116 Speaker 1: nineteen fifty two, more than ten times what Democrats spent. Also, 460 00:30:41,396 --> 00:30:46,076 Speaker 1: Stevenson never appeared in any of the Democrats ads. Amazingly, 461 00:30:46,156 --> 00:30:49,636 Speaker 1: by election day, Stevenson was still a strong contender. He 462 00:30:49,756 --> 00:30:52,156 Speaker 1: and Eisenhower were neck and neck, at least as the 463 00:30:52,196 --> 00:30:55,396 Speaker 1: Poles had it. I've got those predictions on an old, 464 00:30:55,516 --> 00:30:58,756 Speaker 1: yellowed punch card tacked to a bulletin board here in 465 00:30:59,436 --> 00:31:08,556 Speaker 1: the Last Archive. Election Day nineteen fifty two began normally enough. 466 00:31:08,916 --> 00:31:12,916 Speaker 1: It just didn't end that way. At seven fifteen that morning, 467 00:31:13,276 --> 00:31:17,916 Speaker 1: Dwight Eisenhower's train pulled into Grand Central Station, just a 468 00:31:17,956 --> 00:31:21,956 Speaker 1: few floors beneath the CBS News studio. Ike and Mimi 469 00:31:22,156 --> 00:31:25,076 Speaker 1: travel to the Upper West Side to vote, and then 470 00:31:25,116 --> 00:31:28,676 Speaker 1: they retired to their apartment. That evening, they'd go to 471 00:31:28,716 --> 00:31:34,116 Speaker 1: the Commodore Hotel to wait for the results. Ad La E. Stevenson, meanwhile, 472 00:31:34,476 --> 00:31:38,196 Speaker 1: was at the Governor's mansion in Illinois. I've talked before 473 00:31:38,316 --> 00:31:41,876 Speaker 1: here on the Last Archive about the importance of historical imagination, 474 00:31:42,436 --> 00:31:45,876 Speaker 1: and I'm trying, but I just can't picture Stevenson watching 475 00:31:45,876 --> 00:31:50,276 Speaker 1: the returns on television. The rest of the country was watching, though, 476 00:31:50,556 --> 00:31:54,236 Speaker 1: and a whole lot of them were watching CBS. This 477 00:31:54,356 --> 00:31:58,156 Speaker 1: election had been all about television and advertising, and now 478 00:31:58,196 --> 00:32:01,076 Speaker 1: the election coverage featured a first of its kind product 479 00:32:01,076 --> 00:32:05,236 Speaker 1: placement for the computer, the UNIVAC. Like I've said that 480 00:32:05,276 --> 00:32:09,036 Speaker 1: part was going badly. Have you got a prediction for us? Univac. 481 00:32:12,636 --> 00:32:15,636 Speaker 1: I have to say I totally feel for Charles Collingwood. 482 00:32:15,876 --> 00:32:19,396 Speaker 1: He's on live television. The fate of CBS News probably 483 00:32:19,436 --> 00:32:21,836 Speaker 1: seemed to turn on how well the network would cover 484 00:32:21,956 --> 00:32:26,356 Speaker 1: this election. They'd spent gazillions on this insane production and 485 00:32:26,476 --> 00:32:33,316 Speaker 1: it's a dud. Univac, our fabulous mathematical brain is down 486 00:32:33,356 --> 00:32:36,396 Speaker 1: in Philadelphia mulling over the returns that we've sent him 487 00:32:36,436 --> 00:32:39,276 Speaker 1: so far. He's sitting there in his partner humming away. 488 00:32:39,916 --> 00:32:42,716 Speaker 1: A few minutes ago, I asked him what his prediction was, 489 00:32:42,716 --> 00:32:45,556 Speaker 1: and he sent me back a very caustic answer for 490 00:32:45,636 --> 00:32:48,116 Speaker 1: a machine. He said that if we continue to be 491 00:32:48,276 --> 00:32:50,836 Speaker 1: so late in sending him the result, it's going to 492 00:32:50,916 --> 00:32:52,996 Speaker 1: take him a few minutes to find out just what 493 00:32:53,156 --> 00:32:56,076 Speaker 1: the prediction is going to be. So he's not ready 494 00:32:56,156 --> 00:32:58,356 Speaker 1: yet with his prediction, but we're going to go to 495 00:32:58,436 --> 00:33:01,676 Speaker 1: him in just a little while. Univac be damned. The 496 00:33:01,756 --> 00:33:04,796 Speaker 1: Eisenhower campaign was getting its own results by phone over 497 00:33:04,836 --> 00:33:08,436 Speaker 1: at the Commodore Hotel. Her confident Eisenhower was getting ready 498 00:33:08,476 --> 00:33:11,996 Speaker 1: to celebrate. CBS, though still didn't want to call the race. 499 00:33:12,156 --> 00:33:14,596 Speaker 1: And as I was saying that, as a great believer 500 00:33:14,796 --> 00:33:17,156 Speaker 1: in the machine, we're having a little bit of trouble 501 00:33:17,316 --> 00:33:21,316 Speaker 1: with univax. It seems that he's rebelling against the human element. 502 00:33:21,876 --> 00:33:25,716 Speaker 1: About ten thirty, CBS finally got a prediction from the machine. Yes, 503 00:33:25,916 --> 00:33:29,356 Speaker 1: Junivax finally come through. Good, give it to us, hump, 504 00:33:29,516 --> 00:33:35,516 Speaker 1: We've got Stephens twenty stay, Eisenhour at twenty eighth Stay. 505 00:33:36,076 --> 00:33:39,196 Speaker 1: That adds up to an electoral vote for Stephenson of 506 00:33:39,316 --> 00:33:44,476 Speaker 1: two hundred and seventeen for Eisenhower at three hundred and fourteen. 507 00:33:44,956 --> 00:33:47,876 Speaker 1: A prediction at last, but not an outcome that just 508 00:33:47,956 --> 00:33:51,076 Speaker 1: about anyone watching closely couldn't have predicted by that time 509 00:33:51,076 --> 00:33:54,236 Speaker 1: of the night. And then half an hour before midnight, 510 00:33:54,636 --> 00:33:58,276 Speaker 1: Univax seemed to go entirely off the rails. It predicted 511 00:33:58,356 --> 00:34:02,316 Speaker 1: that while Eisenhower would win the electoral vote, Stevenson would 512 00:34:02,316 --> 00:34:06,716 Speaker 1: win the popular vote. No human was predicting anything like that, 513 00:34:06,996 --> 00:34:11,396 Speaker 1: not even Walter Cronkite Charlie very interesting. Indeed, on that 514 00:34:11,556 --> 00:34:15,796 Speaker 1: UNIVAC prediction, we who are on way human and I 515 00:34:15,876 --> 00:34:18,636 Speaker 1: have to operate with the flash and blood instead of 516 00:34:18,676 --> 00:34:22,516 Speaker 1: with electronic gadgets. I still think this thing looks like 517 00:34:22,636 --> 00:34:25,396 Speaker 1: it's pretty much on the Eisenhower side at the moment. 518 00:34:25,956 --> 00:34:27,996 Speaker 1: I know it seems as though UNIVAC was a complete 519 00:34:27,996 --> 00:34:31,196 Speaker 1: disaster on election night nineteen fifty two. But it turned 520 00:34:31,236 --> 00:34:34,476 Speaker 1: out that really in the night, UNIVEK had predicted an 521 00:34:34,476 --> 00:34:38,516 Speaker 1: Eisenhower landslide. The computer minute remington Ran, thinking the election 522 00:34:38,596 --> 00:34:40,716 Speaker 1: was neck and neck and fraid of the machine making 523 00:34:40,796 --> 00:34:44,916 Speaker 1: mistake on live television, just hadn't passed that prediction onto CBS. 524 00:34:45,756 --> 00:34:48,916 Speaker 1: Remington RAN's entire interest in collaborating the CBS had been 525 00:34:48,996 --> 00:34:52,316 Speaker 1: to demonstrate the usefulness of a general purpose digital computer 526 00:34:53,156 --> 00:34:57,836 Speaker 1: what if it failed? Disaster? So the UNIVX people, after 527 00:34:57,876 --> 00:35:01,396 Speaker 1: suppressing that early prediction of an Eisenhower landslide, had gotten 528 00:35:01,396 --> 00:35:03,996 Speaker 1: desperate and had tinkered with the data to see if 529 00:35:04,036 --> 00:35:06,076 Speaker 1: they could get the machine to make a prediction that 530 00:35:06,196 --> 00:35:10,596 Speaker 1: didn't seem nuts. The dancers are to one in favor 531 00:35:10,756 --> 00:35:14,556 Speaker 1: of General Eisenhower. I might note that UNIVAK is running 532 00:35:14,556 --> 00:35:18,356 Speaker 1: a few moments behind ad Morrow. However, just before midnight, 533 00:35:18,516 --> 00:35:21,596 Speaker 1: after veterans, CBS reporter Edward R. Morrow called the election 534 00:35:21,596 --> 00:35:25,596 Speaker 1: for Eisenhower, CBS had finally announced that early Univak prediction. 535 00:35:26,276 --> 00:35:28,876 Speaker 1: To viewers at home, it looked like the Univik was 536 00:35:28,916 --> 00:35:32,876 Speaker 1: the slowest of all predictors. Remington Rand had some explaining 537 00:35:32,916 --> 00:35:36,516 Speaker 1: to do. Well, we had a lot of troubles tonight. 538 00:35:37,196 --> 00:35:40,876 Speaker 1: Strangely enough, they were all human and not the machine. 539 00:35:41,556 --> 00:35:44,876 Speaker 1: Remington Rand guy tried desperately to explain what had gone wrong. 540 00:35:45,316 --> 00:35:48,876 Speaker 1: The problem, he insisted, had never been with the Univac. 541 00:35:49,276 --> 00:35:51,596 Speaker 1: That we should have had nerve enough to believe the 542 00:35:51,636 --> 00:35:55,516 Speaker 1: machine in the first place. It was right, we were wrong. 543 00:35:57,196 --> 00:35:59,876 Speaker 1: Fifteen minutes later, an aide to at LEA. Stevenson told 544 00:35:59,876 --> 00:36:03,276 Speaker 1: reporters that the candidate was conceding. He'd lost to the 545 00:36:03,276 --> 00:36:05,916 Speaker 1: guy with the thirty second TV ADS in a vote 546 00:36:05,956 --> 00:36:14,476 Speaker 1: predicted by a TV gimmick the supercomputer UNIVAC. Stevenson, after 547 00:36:14,556 --> 00:36:17,756 Speaker 1: delivering the concession speech, headed back to the governor's mansion, 548 00:36:17,836 --> 00:36:20,796 Speaker 1: where guests had gathered. One of them tried to boost 549 00:36:20,796 --> 00:36:25,076 Speaker 1: his spirits, told him that he'd educated the country. Stevenson 550 00:36:25,156 --> 00:36:29,476 Speaker 1: supposedly said glumly that the American people had flunked his course. 551 00:36:32,076 --> 00:36:34,596 Speaker 1: He'd wanted his campaign to show that truth can win. 552 00:36:35,316 --> 00:36:37,836 Speaker 1: He wanted to demonstrate that you could run for president 553 00:36:38,156 --> 00:36:41,396 Speaker 1: and win the White House by talking honestly about actual 554 00:36:41,436 --> 00:36:45,556 Speaker 1: issues in all their complexity, not by making thirty second 555 00:36:45,596 --> 00:36:49,876 Speaker 1: ad spots that turned politics into M and m's. But 556 00:36:50,036 --> 00:36:55,836 Speaker 1: truth didn't win, and the American people failed Professor Stephenson's exam, which, 557 00:36:55,996 --> 00:36:58,396 Speaker 1: when you think about it, was a lousy way to 558 00:36:58,476 --> 00:37:02,876 Speaker 1: run a campaign. No wonder he lost, but so did 559 00:37:02,876 --> 00:37:11,636 Speaker 1: the country. Nineteen fifty two set a new course for 560 00:37:11,676 --> 00:37:15,156 Speaker 1: the United States and for American politics the way every 561 00:37:15,196 --> 00:37:19,036 Speaker 1: election does, by changing our president. But it also changed 562 00:37:19,156 --> 00:37:21,916 Speaker 1: how we elect a president, and it even changed how 563 00:37:21,956 --> 00:37:25,356 Speaker 1: we know things. The day after the election, Edward R. 564 00:37:25,436 --> 00:37:28,036 Speaker 1: Murrow talked about voters the way Americans like to think 565 00:37:28,036 --> 00:37:33,316 Speaker 1: of themselves, self determining and unknowable. To me, the most 566 00:37:33,356 --> 00:37:37,356 Speaker 1: impressive thing about tonight is again the demonstration that the 567 00:37:37,396 --> 00:37:41,316 Speaker 1: people of this country are sovereign, that they are unpredictable, 568 00:37:42,036 --> 00:37:44,836 Speaker 1: and that somehow in a faction that is as mysterious 569 00:37:44,876 --> 00:37:48,556 Speaker 1: to pollsters as it is to reporters. The great normal 570 00:37:48,636 --> 00:37:52,316 Speaker 1: majority in this country made up its mind as to 571 00:37:52,356 --> 00:37:55,916 Speaker 1: the man it wanted to meet. It. Maybe pollsters and 572 00:37:55,996 --> 00:38:00,356 Speaker 1: advertising agencies and computers can predict how voters behave. Maybe 573 00:38:00,396 --> 00:38:04,156 Speaker 1: they can change how voters behave. But should they? What 574 00:38:04,276 --> 00:38:07,556 Speaker 1: if the very accuracy of those predictions means that citizens 575 00:38:07,796 --> 00:38:09,956 Speaker 1: lose faith in the evidence what they see with their 576 00:38:09,996 --> 00:38:13,716 Speaker 1: own eyes, lose faith in the political process. What if 577 00:38:13,716 --> 00:38:16,036 Speaker 1: they really take to heart the idea behind the well 578 00:38:16,076 --> 00:38:19,516 Speaker 1: targeted ad campaign and the computerized prediction and conclude that 579 00:38:19,556 --> 00:38:27,916 Speaker 1: we behave as predictable consumers, not as individual citizens. Four 580 00:38:27,996 --> 00:38:30,596 Speaker 1: years later, during the election of nineteen fifty six, at 581 00:38:30,636 --> 00:38:35,116 Speaker 1: LEAs Stevenson took on Eisenhower again, and this time he 582 00:38:35,196 --> 00:38:38,836 Speaker 1: too appeared in commercials. It's wonderful. I was sitting right 583 00:38:38,876 --> 00:38:42,916 Speaker 1: here in my own library. Thanks to television, I can 584 00:38:42,996 --> 00:38:46,956 Speaker 1: talk to millions of people that I couldn't reach any 585 00:38:46,996 --> 00:38:51,196 Speaker 1: other way. They were TV commercials, but really they were 586 00:38:51,236 --> 00:38:56,756 Speaker 1: anti TV commercials. I can talk to you, yes, but 587 00:38:56,956 --> 00:39:01,036 Speaker 1: I can't listen to you. I can't hear about your problems, 588 00:39:01,716 --> 00:39:06,156 Speaker 1: about your hopes and your affairs. To do that, I've 589 00:39:06,196 --> 00:39:08,756 Speaker 1: got to go out and see you in person. And 590 00:39:08,756 --> 00:39:12,916 Speaker 1: that's what I've been doing. So finally, I hope that 591 00:39:12,996 --> 00:39:15,556 Speaker 1: the next time we meet it will be person to 592 00:39:15,636 --> 00:39:19,116 Speaker 1: person and face to face. Stevenson wanted you to know 593 00:39:19,356 --> 00:39:22,916 Speaker 1: it was all props, all fake TV ads were just 594 00:39:22,956 --> 00:39:26,676 Speaker 1: as fake as dummy computers with Christmas lights. But it 595 00:39:26,796 --> 00:39:29,956 Speaker 1: was no use, and it was too late. Citizens had 596 00:39:29,956 --> 00:39:33,636 Speaker 1: become consumers shopping for the best deal. Politics had become 597 00:39:33,756 --> 00:39:38,036 Speaker 1: just another con the hard sell, face to face, fat chance. 598 00:39:38,556 --> 00:39:42,996 Speaker 1: Campaigns would get glossier and glitzier. Elections would be predicted 599 00:39:43,036 --> 00:39:49,876 Speaker 1: by faster and faster computers. In nineteen fifty six, President 600 00:39:49,916 --> 00:39:55,116 Speaker 1: Eisenhower had new ads to lower taxes, wier taxes, record employment, unemployment, 601 00:39:55,196 --> 00:39:59,596 Speaker 1: piece highest wages, lower pay, late write, centralization of government. 602 00:39:59,756 --> 00:40:05,996 Speaker 1: Whoa stop. I've tried. I'd listened to everybody on TV 603 00:40:06,236 --> 00:40:10,276 Speaker 1: and radio. I've read the papers and magazine. I've tried, 604 00:40:10,676 --> 00:40:15,676 Speaker 1: but I'm still confused. Who's right, What's right? What should 605 00:40:15,676 --> 00:40:19,636 Speaker 1: I believe? What are the facts? How can I tell? 606 00:40:21,996 --> 00:40:25,796 Speaker 1: Voters became irritated and impatient, looking for the quick fix. 607 00:40:26,676 --> 00:40:33,116 Speaker 1: Eisenhower answers America the easy answer, What are the facts? 608 00:40:33,996 --> 00:40:37,116 Speaker 1: When politics becomes big business? The facts of the matter 609 00:40:37,436 --> 00:40:42,796 Speaker 1: become harder and harder to tell, especially outside of the 610 00:40:42,916 --> 00:40:58,556 Speaker 1: Last Archive. The Last Archive is produced by Sophie Crane 611 00:40:58,596 --> 00:41:01,876 Speaker 1: mcabbon and Bennette of Faffrey. Our editor is Julia Barton, 612 00:41:02,036 --> 00:41:05,516 Speaker 1: and our executive producer is Mia Lobell. Jason Gambrell and 613 00:41:05,556 --> 00:41:09,076 Speaker 1: Martin Gonzalez are our engineers. Fact checking by Amy Gaines. 614 00:41:09,556 --> 00:41:14,036 Speaker 1: Original music by Matthias Bossi and John Evans of Stellwagen Simponette. 615 00:41:14,236 --> 00:41:16,596 Speaker 1: Many of our sound effects are from Harry Jeannette Junior 616 00:41:16,676 --> 00:41:21,476 Speaker 1: and the Star Jenette Foundation. Our full proof players are Barlow, Adamson, 617 00:41:21,796 --> 00:41:26,876 Speaker 1: Daniel Burger, Jones, Jesse Henson, John Kuntz, Becca A. Lewis In, 618 00:41:27,036 --> 00:41:30,556 Speaker 1: Maurice Emmanuel Parent. The Last Archive is brought to you 619 00:41:30,596 --> 00:41:34,956 Speaker 1: by Pushkin Industries. Special thanks to Ryan McKittrick in the 620 00:41:34,996 --> 00:41:39,436 Speaker 1: American Repertory Theater, to Alex Allenson and the Bridge Sound 621 00:41:39,476 --> 00:41:43,396 Speaker 1: in stage, to Simon Leek and to the Wisconsin Historical Society. 622 00:41:43,836 --> 00:41:48,196 Speaker 1: Footage provided by Veritone at Pushkin thanks to Heather Faine, 623 00:41:48,196 --> 00:41:54,276 Speaker 1: Maya Kanig, Carl Migliori, Emily Rostick, Maggie Taylor, and Jacob Weisberg. 624 00:41:54,836 --> 00:41:59,556 Speaker 1: Our research assistants are Michelle Gaw, Olivia Oldham, Henrietta Riley, 625 00:41:59,756 --> 00:42:04,196 Speaker 1: Oliver Riskin Cuts and Emily Spector. I'm Jill Lapoor.