1
00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: Well, welcome back to Stephanomics and these mini episodes giving

2
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:09,880
Speaker 1: you a taste of the conversations here at the New

3
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:14,360
Speaker 1: Economy Forum in Singapore. And today I wanted to have

4
00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:20,239
Speaker 1: a conversation with Kendra Schaeffer, who has a really interesting

5
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,560
Speaker 1: perspective on current debates about the future of China and

6
00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,560
Speaker 1: the future of U S China relations as the head

7
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:33,840
Speaker 1: of tech policy research at a Beijing based policy consultancy Triviaan. Kendra,

8
00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,839
Speaker 1: start by explaining a little about you, because you're just

9
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,440
Speaker 1: your own sort of recent personal history is kind of interesting.

10
00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,520
Speaker 1: You're based in Beijing until very recently. Yeah, absolutely, thanks

11
00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:47,840
Speaker 1: for having me. So I just left Beijing a couple

12
00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,599
Speaker 1: of months ago. I actually went to college in Beijing

13
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: in two thousand and two. I kind of intended to

14
00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,240
Speaker 1: just stay there, you know, for a year and then

15
00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,200
Speaker 1: go back. I was a nerd kid. I started my

16
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 1: career as a developed for actually, and then I've just

17
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,880
Speaker 1: been there for the last twenty years and my my

18
00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,240
Speaker 1: career kind of went from you know, I was there

19
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,640
Speaker 1: right at the beginning of the Internet boom, and my

20
00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,480
Speaker 1: career went from development to to tech policy research and

21
00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,800
Speaker 1: a bizarre series of twists and turns. So yeah, I've

22
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,760
Speaker 1: been there for for most of the COVID outbreak and

23
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:21,600
Speaker 1: just just kind of stepped out. And you must have

24
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,319
Speaker 1: this sort of interesting phenomena recently where those people who

25
00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,200
Speaker 1: have managed the academics and China experts who have been

26
00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: able to be in China recently for one reason or another,

27
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 1: they're so rare they get sort of mobbed by people

28
00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:36,640
Speaker 1: for the kind of more recent take on on on

29
00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,600
Speaker 1: things in China. Has that been your experience this week

30
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 1: and in the last few weeks, Yeah, it absolutely has.

31
00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:46,040
Speaker 1: I mean that's been you know, exacerbated by US China tentions,

32
00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: but it's also been exacerbated by a kind of axodus

33
00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:54,400
Speaker 1: of China experts from China during the COVID pandemic um

34
00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 1: and so nobody has been able to really get back.

35
00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:00,560
Speaker 1: I mean, US China travel cross border dial has really

36
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:02,560
Speaker 1: taken a nose dive in the last couple of years.

37
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, there's a lot of interest in what it's

38
00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,280
Speaker 1: really like on the ground over there, particularly since you know,

39
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,560
Speaker 1: China's kind of gone off on on this you know,

40
00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:14,040
Speaker 1: other timeline with COVID than the rest of the world.

41
00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 1: So people are very interested in what's happening, and you

42
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,000
Speaker 1: are day to day, of course, also observing what's happening

43
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:24,120
Speaker 1: in the in the tech policy space and giving kind

44
00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,440
Speaker 1: of daily up to you and your team might imagine

45
00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 1: are updating your clients and talking to people in a regular,

46
00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,920
Speaker 1: regular basis and how is your how is your business

47
00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:34,640
Speaker 1: done over the last few years, I guess is one

48
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,920
Speaker 1: way of putting it. Well, yeah, so basically what we

49
00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,760
Speaker 1: do is, you know, my tech team spends all day

50
00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,639
Speaker 1: digging around in in Chinese tech policy documents and kind

51
00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,280
Speaker 1: of trying to explain Beijing's motivations for you know, some

52
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,000
Speaker 1: of the things that have happened, particularly in the last

53
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 1: couple of years. And so business is booming. It's never

54
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,560
Speaker 1: a dull day, especially considering we've seen you know, the

55
00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,800
Speaker 1: twentieth Party Congress, We've seen the tech crackdown, We've seen

56
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,680
Speaker 1: you know, all of these companies kind of get hit

57
00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,359
Speaker 1: fire hosed with new regulations coming out of Beijing. We've

58
00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,560
Speaker 1: seen you know, censorship increase. So there's just been a

59
00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,280
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of things to follow, and there's

60
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,639
Speaker 1: been significant interest in those things. And you were saying

61
00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,280
Speaker 1: to me that, you know, one of the distinguishing features

62
00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,560
Speaker 1: of the consultancy is everybody there reads at least one

63
00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:24,519
Speaker 1: big pile of very boring policy documents every morning when

64
00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,840
Speaker 1: it comes out. So we spend you know, I mean,

65
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,960
Speaker 1: we spend a couple hours a day just digging through

66
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,840
Speaker 1: the latest releases from the various government agencies. But not

67
00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,480
Speaker 1: just that, also you know blogs from you know, policy

68
00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:41,040
Speaker 1: advisors and you know, other kind of micro moves from

69
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,240
Speaker 1: from Chinese think tanks and that kind of stuff, to

70
00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,280
Speaker 1: really kind of get a sense of these these little

71
00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:48,040
Speaker 1: steps forward. Whereas the media tends to focus on the

72
00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 1: big headlines, right, big big new movements, we kind of

73
00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,400
Speaker 1: track what's happened after those issues are not headlines anymore.

74
00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:55,960
Speaker 1: But a lot of people listening to this podcast, I

75
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,000
Speaker 1: imagine they're kind of fairly interested. I hope they're fairly

76
00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,160
Speaker 1: interested in the global economy, um, but then maybe not

77
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,760
Speaker 1: focused necessarily on what's happening in business or tech policy

78
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,680
Speaker 1: at any given time. When we hear that headline, you know,

79
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,640
Speaker 1: the tech crackdown. What do you think has actually been

80
00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:15,840
Speaker 1: going on over the last couple of years with what

81
00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 1: we consider to be the tech crackdown in China? Yeah,

82
00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 1: I mean that's a fascinating topic. It's pretty much all

83
00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:25,000
Speaker 1: anybody wanted to hear about last year, right, And because

84
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 1: I think it's surprised so many investors. Um. But to

85
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:33,680
Speaker 1: be perfectly frank, it probably shouldn't have. Ultimately, what is

86
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,599
Speaker 1: there was a lot of things going on. Number One,

87
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,880
Speaker 1: for the last fifteen years really maybe twenty years, since

88
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,000
Speaker 1: China's big tech companies really started to develop. Um. You know,

89
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:49,320
Speaker 1: the state has struggled with figuring out where big tech

90
00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,200
Speaker 1: fits into the socialist market economy. Right. I mean, when

91
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,160
Speaker 1: you really think about it, it's fascinating because big tech company,

92
00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,360
Speaker 1: the emergence of big tech companies is the first time

93
00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:02,640
Speaker 1: that Beijing has ever had to deal with with big, private,

94
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:07,160
Speaker 1: domestic firms that are not state owned enterprises, right, And

95
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,039
Speaker 1: so the state has kind of not really known what

96
00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,480
Speaker 1: to do with big tech in that regard. And for

97
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,320
Speaker 1: the first fifteen years of tech company development, to be

98
00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:17,960
Speaker 1: perfectly frank, tech firms were very dismissive of regulators. And

99
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 1: you have a similar issue in the States, right, They

100
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,520
Speaker 1: kind of brushed off a lot of regulatory authority and pressure.

101
00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,880
Speaker 1: We kind of conceptualized that as the central government came

102
00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,719
Speaker 1: after big tech. It's not really what happened. You know,

103
00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:33,839
Speaker 1: you basically had a multitude of regulators going after, you know,

104
00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,279
Speaker 1: concerned about a multitude of issues in the tech space.

105
00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,920
Speaker 1: So that included things like the Central Bank was worried

106
00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,920
Speaker 1: that fintech platforms were being regulated like tech companies and

107
00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 1: not like banks, but they were basically behaving like banks,

108
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,560
Speaker 1: or at least by like financial institutions. Um. You know,

109
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:55,599
Speaker 1: you you had transport regulators and market regulators concerned about

110
00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 1: low levels of compliance legal compliance in the right hailing sector.

111
00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:04,400
Speaker 1: You had the Ministry of Education concerned that ed tech

112
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,840
Speaker 1: companies were you know, overcharging parents and kind of making

113
00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,960
Speaker 1: it more expensive to have kids in a time when

114
00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,920
Speaker 1: the population is declining. And so all of these things

115
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,200
Speaker 1: have been bubbling under the surface for you know, over

116
00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:22,800
Speaker 1: a decade um and then you know, as the state's

117
00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:27,280
Speaker 1: priorities and their vision for the future digital economies started

118
00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,040
Speaker 1: to solidify under Shijin Ping's government, you know, there was

119
00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:35,120
Speaker 1: this growing concern that the state needed to step in,

120
00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: that all these regulators needed to step in and put

121
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:42,640
Speaker 1: these tech companies forced them to get in line with

122
00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,240
Speaker 1: state directed goals, and so there was kind of a

123
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:50,280
Speaker 1: green light signal from the central government that these regulators

124
00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:54,600
Speaker 1: could now go after you know, tech companies across this

125
00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,719
Speaker 1: whole range of issues, and it just created a tidal

126
00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,120
Speaker 1: wave of kind of pent up regular ship that I'll

127
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,680
Speaker 1: just crash down on tech companies at the same time. Uh,

128
00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,719
Speaker 1: And that's kind of what investors experienced last year when

129
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,680
Speaker 1: we see in the National Party Congress. Obviously the takeaway

130
00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:13,240
Speaker 1: that I think anyone who paid any attention at all

131
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:18,960
Speaker 1: had saw the headline, you know, she jumping consolidating his power.

132
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 1: That's raised question marks about whether policy going forward will

133
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 1: be driven by kind of considerations of what's best for

134
00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 1: the economy or much more about what's best for she

135
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,760
Speaker 1: and what's best for for the for the government, and

136
00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 1: it's continued control. If when you look at in technology,

137
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,800
Speaker 1: it was a key part of China's future growth is

138
00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,320
Speaker 1: going to be innovation in that sector. Does one see

139
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 1: the same kind of concern that she's increasingly iron grip

140
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 1: could start slowing China's innovation or getting in the way

141
00:07:55,760 --> 00:08:00,600
Speaker 1: of its growth. Yes, So the critical issue there is

142
00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,080
Speaker 1: really that the state wants to encourage innovation, but innovation

143
00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,320
Speaker 1: along the lines of state directed goals. Right, The idea

144
00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,880
Speaker 1: is really become that tech companies and particularly I'm talking

145
00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:17,400
Speaker 1: about platform companies here UM, should be on board with

146
00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:23,120
Speaker 1: leveraging their capital and directing their resources towards UH solving

147
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 1: what the Chinese government tends to call bottleneck or chokehold technologies. Right,

148
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: so the messages listen, tech platforms, we don't want you

149
00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,400
Speaker 1: guys disrupting pizza delivery or whatever it is you're doing

150
00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,640
Speaker 1: that's not helping the state. We want you to leverage

151
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,400
Speaker 1: your capital UH to develop high end chips, which were

152
00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 1: you know, UM currently struggling to China currently struggling to

153
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 1: develop that industry. We want you to leverage your capital

154
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:53,640
Speaker 1: towards AI, towards you know, certain elements of blockchain development UM,

155
00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,959
Speaker 1: and those are the goals that the state sees will

156
00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,960
Speaker 1: help it develop its digital economy. That I should still

157
00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,520
Speaker 1: back a little bit because one of the fascinating pieces

158
00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,320
Speaker 1: of the digital economy, the way that the state has

159
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,640
Speaker 1: kind of framed it is that the growth of the

160
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:11,560
Speaker 1: digital economy in China is you know, many times faster

161
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 1: than the growth is the real economy. But their vision

162
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,800
Speaker 1: for the digital economy doesn't really include or platforms just

163
00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,640
Speaker 1: kind of developing whatever they want, right, So that's really

164
00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,800
Speaker 1: that's really the issue. They want to put platform companies

165
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 1: on a trellis and then have them develop on the

166
00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,880
Speaker 1: trellis that the party has established. Does that make sense? Yeah?

167
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:35,800
Speaker 1: I mean I think a lot of governments would look

168
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 1: at that and say, yeah, of course, we like to

169
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 1: have all the innovation or being super valuable useful things,

170
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,800
Speaker 1: and not in these things that seem rather frivolous or

171
00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:50,400
Speaker 1: distracting from your knowledge of the way innovators work. I mean,

172
00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,480
Speaker 1: is how plausible is it that the government is just

173
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,960
Speaker 1: going to be able to encourage innovation in some areas

174
00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,079
Speaker 1: and not others. No, I mean, I think that remains

175
00:09:58,120 --> 00:09:59,839
Speaker 1: to be seen. You know, I think about the answer

176
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,880
Speaker 1: to question, I'd be a bazillionaire. But you know, what

177
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,440
Speaker 1: we have seen as a response from platform companies indicating

178
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,920
Speaker 1: at least nominally that they are trying to get on

179
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,160
Speaker 1: the boat. So we've seen platform companies go into chip design.

180
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,760
Speaker 1: We've seen platform companies go into you know AI. We've

181
00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,319
Speaker 1: seen also seen a lot of moves by platform companies

182
00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:27,160
Speaker 1: to uh create platforms that help solve other domestic problems.

183
00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,080
Speaker 1: So for example, food security issues or rural revitalization, right

184
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,520
Speaker 1: kind of bringing jobs to the countryside, to to um

185
00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,560
Speaker 1: you know, increase wealth in the farming population. So those

186
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,800
Speaker 1: are all state directed priorities. And just to be clear,

187
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,240
Speaker 1: sorry when you say platform companies, what kind of companies?

188
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,319
Speaker 1: And Ali Baba video you know, you know d D

189
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 1: So you know we've seen a lot of movements from

190
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,800
Speaker 1: those companies too to at least nominally follow that path.

191
00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,480
Speaker 1: Whether or not that results in innovation down those passes

192
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,800
Speaker 1: is a question mark. But I you know, I think

193
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,440
Speaker 1: it's a little bit silly to say that state direction

194
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 1: has not resulted in innovation in China. UM. You know,

195
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:15,040
Speaker 1: it has in many cases, and so there's you know,

196
00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,160
Speaker 1: there's a there's a possibility that they do succeed. The

197
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,880
Speaker 1: other thing that you have advantage point on it was

198
00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:25,719
Speaker 1: obviously relevant to this is US China relations and how

199
00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 1: that's playing out on the ground. I mean, it feels

200
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: on the outside as if there's an enormous tension at

201
00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,839
Speaker 1: the moment between sort of the direction that politicians are

202
00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:39,240
Speaker 1: moving in UM, whether it's what Congress people say about

203
00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 1: Taiwan or even what the administration says about wanting to

204
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:47,040
Speaker 1: prevent China from getting cutting edge chips and what businesses

205
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 1: feel is realistic or desirable in the way of decoupling

206
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:54,679
Speaker 1: from China. You know, I hear it again and again,

207
00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,680
Speaker 1: companies saying, well, we hear this. You know, we're thinking about,

208
00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,959
Speaker 1: you know, diversifying some of our supply chains, but when

209
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,920
Speaker 1: not pulling out of China, and we are, if anything,

210
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,720
Speaker 1: trying to you know, still continue to build our relationships there.

211
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,559
Speaker 1: You're on the ground, or you were until recently, but

212
00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,680
Speaker 1: you're still talking to um clients who are asking you

213
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,320
Speaker 1: for the latest in China. Have you seen any let

214
00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,960
Speaker 1: up in the number of US or global companies who

215
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,640
Speaker 1: are investing in China and making long term plans for

216
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,360
Speaker 1: business in China. Well, I think you're I think you're

217
00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,360
Speaker 1: spot on there. Um. What we're really seeing is that

218
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,959
Speaker 1: companies are in a holding pattern. Part of the reason

219
00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,400
Speaker 1: is US China relations That's half of it. But I

220
00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 1: actually think the bigger driver is china zero COVID policies,

221
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 1: because the zero COVID situation for tech manufacturing is just

222
00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,200
Speaker 1: out of control. You know, you have factories that are

223
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,080
Speaker 1: are trying to produce hardware that are just getting caught

224
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,480
Speaker 1: up in lockdowns every two weeks. And you know, I

225
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,360
Speaker 1: don't I don't know if you've been following this, like

226
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,839
Speaker 1: Fox can issue in Jung Joe, there was a COVID

227
00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,360
Speaker 1: outbreak at the factory. Factory got locked down and most

228
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,280
Speaker 1: of the workers and we're tracking this right now, most

229
00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,760
Speaker 1: of the workers fled. They just went home, right and

230
00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,920
Speaker 1: and and just you know, they walked because no transportation

231
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,080
Speaker 1: would take them because they weren't supposed to be you know,

232
00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,800
Speaker 1: on public transport if they were you know, under lockdown.

233
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:18,160
Speaker 1: People just picked up their bags and said, you know,

234
00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,920
Speaker 1: forget this, and they walked back to their hometowns. Right.

235
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,800
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just been it's been crazy that kind

236
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:26,760
Speaker 1: of stuff, you know. And then there was issues at

237
00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 1: the you know, Tesla factory and Shanghai. I mean there's

238
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,800
Speaker 1: just been worker protests and so it's really more that

239
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:37,000
Speaker 1: issue that I think is the immediate threat. What we're

240
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 1: hearing is that, you know, the same thing you're hearing

241
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 1: UM companies are looking to diversify outside of China to

242
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:48,880
Speaker 1: mitigate risk both zero COVID and US China tension risk. Uh,

243
00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:53,560
Speaker 1: they don't want to leave because there are few options

244
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 1: and in some cases they literally have no other choice

245
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,200
Speaker 1: because the supply chain in China is so much or

246
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:05,120
Speaker 1: for certain industries ship building for example, UM, that there's

247
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,760
Speaker 1: just nowhere else on on planet Earth they can go,

248
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,080
Speaker 1: you know, continue to do business at the same scale

249
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 1: and continue to produce at the same scale. So they

250
00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,440
Speaker 1: don't want to leave UM and are are concerned about

251
00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,560
Speaker 1: being driven out, but definitely are trying to hedge hedge

252
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 1: that risk. But the other thing we're hearing is that

253
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 1: in many cases, you know, a duplicate supply chain would

254
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 1: require ten years to build in the cases of many

255
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 1: of these companies. So you've just got you know, people

256
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 1: are just doing their best to hedge their bets, but

257
00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 1: are largely still dependent on China. I guess finally people

258
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,400
Speaker 1: will be interested to know whether you have any plans

259
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,960
Speaker 1: to go back. I think you'll live it. You're now

260
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 1: living in Portland, UM, which must feel pretty different after

261
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 1: all those years in Beijing. But you know, if there

262
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 1: was a m if you were presented with a sort

263
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:59,600
Speaker 1: of compelling reason to to go back to beiging to live,

264
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,800
Speaker 1: would you would you consider that? Or do you think

265
00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 1: or is it becoming a bit more difficult to be

266
00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,160
Speaker 1: an American focused on China Chinese tech policy. Oh, I'd

267
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,240
Speaker 1: absolutely go back given half a chance. I mean, I've

268
00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,840
Speaker 1: got a big network of friends and obviously our our

269
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,680
Speaker 1: clients and and uh, you know, work friends over in Beijing,

270
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 1: and and I still, you know, deeply love it there. Um,

271
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 1: but zero COVID has made it very difficult to remain

272
00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,360
Speaker 1: right when you can't get in and out of the country,

273
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,120
Speaker 1: especially when you travel as much as I do. It's

274
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 1: a little bit difficult. So, I mean, my plans are

275
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 1: just to wait and see what happens with zero COVID.

276
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:37,800
Speaker 1: As soon as the restrictions start to let up, I'll

277
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 1: I'll reassess. I've spoken to a number of people who

278
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: do feel more vulnerable as US citizens in China now,

279
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 1: just not that that that they personally would be under threat,

280
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: but that they could potentially be caught up in something

281
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 1: larger or a diplomatic spat. But that's not something that

282
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:57,320
Speaker 1: concerns you particularly well. I Mean, the issue essentially for

283
00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 1: for me is that you know, I like to be

284
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,560
Speaker 1: right in the middle of the action, regardless of any

285
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 1: of that stuff. Um, it's definitely the tensions on the

286
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 1: ground have the kind of feeling of being there as

287
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:13,080
Speaker 1: American has definitely changed. It's most certainly changed since I

288
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 1: got there in two thousand and four, when everyone was

289
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 1: very excited to, you know, meet an American. And now

290
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 1: you know, they ask you where you're from and you

291
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: say the US and they don't. So but I think

292
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 1: that's happening on both sides of the ocean, right, I mean,

293
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 1: you essentially have a media environment both in the U

294
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 1: S And China that is kind of painting the other.

295
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,600
Speaker 1: You know, in the US, it's like China's this big,

296
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:38,640
Speaker 1: evil authoritarian state and the kind of number one adversary

297
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 1: of of the U S. And you know, in China

298
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: you're hearing things like, you know, the US is a

299
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 1: hegemonic power that doesn't want to share with you know,

300
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,880
Speaker 1: anybody else except people that believe as they believe. And

301
00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,760
Speaker 1: so there's this kind of you know, downward spiral of

302
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 1: um communication, misscommunication and you know, negative conversation about the other,

303
00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 1: which is a very unfortunate situation to be in. And

304
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 1: I have definitely felt that over there. But you know

305
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 1: that said on a day to day basis, people are people,

306
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 1: and you know that's true all over the world, Kendra Scheffer,

307
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,719
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Thank you. Well, that's it for

308
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,119
Speaker 1: this mini episode of Stephonomics from the New Economy Forum

309
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 1: in Singapore. We will be back with more but in

310
00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 1: the meantime. Thanks to Yang Yang for producing this episode.