Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.
Speaker 2: Tracy, there's been this big crypto run up. It's pulled
Speaker 2: back over the last couple of weeks bitcoin got above
Speaker 2: seventy thousand. We haven't really done crypto this cycle.
Speaker 3: I know we did.
Speaker 4: Meant, I have a theory for why we haven't done
Speaker 4: on But what were you going to say?
Speaker 3: You just don't want to talk about your theory. No,
Speaker 3: there's a separate theory, Okay, I was gonna say. It
Speaker 3: feels like a lot of stuff that's happening in this
Speaker 3: cycle has happened before, and I know part of it
Speaker 3: is the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, But I mean,
Speaker 3: we have episodes on bitcoin ETFs from like years and
Speaker 3: years ago. So if we do an episode, which we're
Speaker 3: doing now, I think it should be about what the
Speaker 3: difference is in the cycle. If anything, I think it's
Speaker 3: just been boring.
Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is like it's always
Speaker 2: exciting when lines go up and down really fast, which
Speaker 2: is why I am a market's journalist in the first place.
Speaker 2: But I actually think there's almost nothing particularly interesting about
Speaker 2: this cryptocycle, and in past one's like you know, there
Speaker 2: released some narratives like web three and gaming to earn
Speaker 2: and some of that stuff we did in the past,
Speaker 2: or like how like uniswap works, like kind of some
Speaker 2: interesting things about people, like redesigning markets or whatever. This one,
Speaker 2: there's no thing there other than price and basically meme coins,
Speaker 2: which vcs love to write thought pieces about but are
Speaker 2: not really that interesting.
Speaker 3: Joe, I think you are ignoring technological breakthrough that is
Speaker 3: dogwth hat. Okay, that was not around no last cycle.
Speaker 2: You're right, So we had doge coin and ship last cycle,
Speaker 2: but neither of them had a hat in the last cycle,
Speaker 2: so there have been some breakthroughs in putting cute hats
Speaker 2: on the cute puppies for the coins. You're right, that
Speaker 2: is progress.
Speaker 3: But yeah, exactly, Okay, but we are doing a crypto
Speaker 3: episode right now for the avoidance of doubt, and I
Speaker 3: think the way we are coming at it is talking
Speaker 3: to someone who has seen multiple crypto cycles at this point, and.
Speaker 2: Also that if you accept the premise that basically the
Speaker 2: only interesting thing is price and why things move around.
Speaker 2: I don't want to hear from a VC. I don't
Speaker 2: want to hear from someone who's doing some layer three
Speaker 2: solution or some made up tokenization of a building in
Speaker 2: New York City. I just want to hear from someone
Speaker 2: who rides the ups and downs and what's that right? Like,
Speaker 2: because if that's actually the only thing going on, which
Speaker 2: I believe, then the only like true expert is not
Speaker 2: the VC or the investor of the founder, but the
Speaker 2: person who day to day is helping move that price
Speaker 2: one direction or another.
Speaker 3: No, I think that's absolutely true. The other thing that
Speaker 3: I sometimes think about is what are crypto traders doing
Speaker 3: on a day to day basis, Like, how do you
Speaker 3: actually spend your time if you are trading crypto? What
Speaker 3: does research look like?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And then the other thing that kind of blows my
Speaker 3: mind is just the amount of man hours and labor
Speaker 3: power that is spent on thinking about whether or not
Speaker 3: line goes up on chart.
Speaker 4: Totally.
Speaker 2: You know, on some level that's all finance is. But
Speaker 2: I guess, like in traditional finance, I have some there's
Speaker 2: a veneer of respect to there's a veneer, and I
Speaker 2: have some intuitions about how the professionals in the space
Speaker 2: make educated beds on whether the line is going up
Speaker 2: or going to go down. And there's fundamentals and earnings
Speaker 2: and momentum factors and all that stuff, and people different
Speaker 2: try and I sort of understand what they try to do,
Speaker 2: but I don't really know what the equivalent is in crypto.
Speaker 2: So I think we got to learn and I think
Speaker 2: we should talk to We got to talk to someone
Speaker 2: who is in the space of like determining whether the
Speaker 2: price is going up or down.
Speaker 3: Let's do it.
Speaker 4: So I'm really excited.
Speaker 2: We have the perfect guest because not only has he
Speaker 2: been a degenerate crypt trader for several years, it's the
Speaker 2: first guest that we've had on on Lots who has
Speaker 2: been sourced from our own Odd Lots discord, a active
Speaker 2: participant in there. And I'm like, oh, this guy is
Speaker 2: a smart guy. So why don't we like talk to
Speaker 2: one of our own community members, a listener, someone who
Speaker 2: chats with us from time to time, someone who's not
Speaker 2: a VC writing big thought pieces about how the industry
Speaker 2: works and the importance of memes.
Speaker 4: Someone who's just trading the coins.
Speaker 3: Let's do it. Yeah, I'm excited, all right, I am
Speaker 3: very excited.
Speaker 2: We are welcoming to the show. Julian Malinak. In his
Speaker 2: professional life he does healthcare tech and data stuff, and
Speaker 2: then in the other half of his life he's been
Speaker 2: trading crypto for a long time. Julian, thank you so
Speaker 2: much for coming on.
Speaker 4: Odd lots my pleasure.
Speaker 2: Why don't you just start off you're a crypto trader?
Speaker 4: How did that happen?
Speaker 5: Yes, So, I think that my journey was somewhat typical. Right. So,
Speaker 5: for most of my career, I've worked in healthcare policy
Speaker 5: and technology. I was in my early thirties working in
Speaker 5: tech in San Francisco. If you think of crypto, it's like, Okay,
Speaker 5: I in his early thirties in San Francisco working in tech.
Speaker 5: That's kind of what you think of, right, you're the
Speaker 5: architect exactly. And so I had heard about it and
Speaker 5: had seen some lines going up and had some extra
Speaker 5: money at that time. This was twenty twenty one, early
Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, and from an early point it was
Speaker 5: about the prices, right. I was curious about the technology,
Speaker 5: but it really was about, Okay, these lines are going up.
Speaker 5: It seems like people are making a lot of money.
Speaker 5: Why not me? Right? And I think fairly quickly kind
Speaker 5: of in that first year of trading, went through the
Speaker 5: tour of opportunities available to I think the typical retail participant, right,
Speaker 5: So started with Bitcoin and ethereum, went down the list
Speaker 5: to like kind of the mid cap coins, right so
Speaker 5: the top one hundred coins that are traded on exchanges,
Speaker 5: but where there's just bigger ups and downs. Went to
Speaker 5: kind of the world of microcaps, so coins that maybe
Speaker 5: the market cap is one hundred thousand dollars and it
Speaker 5: only trades on some on chained decks, it's probably going
Speaker 5: to go to zero, but it might one hundred x.
Speaker 5: So I had a few of those. A lot of
Speaker 5: them went to zero. I had a few that did
Speaker 5: go up a ton and made some money. And then
Speaker 5: I also did during those first few years some yield
Speaker 5: farming rights, so basically finding some obscure D five protocols
Speaker 5: were they're typically rewarding users with kind of a native
Speaker 5: token to a trash co liquidity and kind of like
Speaker 5: a mercenary. I would just judge the yield verse risk
Speaker 5: and go where it was best. And then as the
Speaker 5: market went on. Oddly, my best week in crypto was
Speaker 5: actually the lunar crash, whether through luck or insight, I
Speaker 5: shorted a bunch of stuff and made a ton, and
Speaker 5: then I think, unsurprisingly to a lot of veteran traders,
Speaker 5: I just gave up most of that money in the
Speaker 5: following months, right, And I think that often those kind
Speaker 5: of euphoric periods you have and being your downfall, and
Speaker 5: so I took some breaks after that. Luckily I didn't
Speaker 5: have a lot of money in FTX, so I was
Speaker 5: kind of taking a break from the market after that
Speaker 5: huge you know, making a ton in Luna and losing it.
Speaker 5: And then the past year I've gotten back into it,
Speaker 5: focused mainly on short to mid term trades. You know,
Speaker 5: I'll be honest that the strength of this rally, I
Speaker 5: think if you had asked me a year ago, I
Speaker 5: wouldn't have seen it going as high as it did.
Speaker 5: But it turns out that the bitcoin ETF, as you said,
Speaker 5: was a pretty big deal.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I've continued to trade and have been watching
Speaker 5: the markets for a while now.
Speaker 3: So you mentioned making money and losing money. Can you
Speaker 3: talk to us a little bit more about what kind
Speaker 3: of numbers we're talking about here, and beyond the Luna position,
Speaker 3: what was the split like between money you made from
Speaker 3: yield farming versus money just going long or short certain coins.
Speaker 5: You know, I started with low six figures in crypto,
Speaker 5: made I think on my best kind of small cap
Speaker 5: position seven figures, and then Luna was my all time high,
Speaker 5: and I could have kind of retired not with a
Speaker 5: ton of money, but enough to live on for a
Speaker 5: very long time, and then gave up most of that.
Speaker 5: I didn't lose everything, but gave up what was seven
Speaker 5: figure gains essentially, yea, okay, what's that like?
Speaker 2: Going from having money where you're like actually could think
Speaker 2: about retirement or maybe a modest retirement, to losing seven
Speaker 2: It was then in that position.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it was funny because this is so fitting. So
Speaker 5: I live in New York, right, and I remember in
Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, it was like the week that I
Speaker 5: started looking at these nice apartments to buy with cash
Speaker 5: was the week where I wiped out forty percent of
Speaker 5: my network. And I think that what happens in crypto
Speaker 5: is basically it happens on both sides, right, So you're
Speaker 5: early to some trend. So in my case in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty two, I was early to the shorting or maybe
Speaker 5: you were early to the bull market, right, And you
Speaker 5: keep writing that and you grow more confident, right, and
Speaker 5: you're betting bigger and bigger, and people you know who
Speaker 5: are being conservative are making less money than the people
Speaker 5: who are being really aggressive, right, and so you get
Speaker 5: more and more aggressive, and then it violently shifts. Two
Speaker 5: weeks ago, I heard a ton of stories from traders
Speaker 5: I know who wiped out months and months of gains
Speaker 5: in literally minutes, right. And I remember when this happened
Speaker 5: to me the first time. You know, it was literally
Speaker 5: months of I would like to say hard work, maybe
Speaker 5: some luck wiped out in you know, an hour or two.
Speaker 5: I had at the time been I think, going on
Speaker 5: very little sleep. It was nauseating. It's hard to feel
Speaker 5: sorry for someone who's just like gambling, right, But it
Speaker 5: was kind of traumatic in the sense that it was
Speaker 5: just so sudden and so fast, and I think it
Speaker 5: really was pretty hard to recover from that from a
Speaker 5: trading perspective, right, because you think about, oh man, I
Speaker 5: really want to get back to that all time high,
Speaker 5: and you're chasing that.
Speaker 3: I would be upset if I lost that amount of money.
Speaker 3: Everyone would be upset.
Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, I can't even fathom it. It does seem
Speaker 2: like it's like a meme. Right. People even joke like
Speaker 2: when the coins are going up, they're like, Oh, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna load zillow dot com right now, so you should
Speaker 2: probably start shorting. And so it's very funny that you
Speaker 2: were literally looking at apartments to buy in all cash.
Speaker 5: I'm kind of disturbed by my mindset in those times,
Speaker 5: and I've had two or three times like that. I
Speaker 5: think the worst was in twenty twenty two, but since then,
Speaker 5: I've had a few blow ups like that. You know,
Speaker 5: I've had some huge wins too, but it's just it's
Speaker 5: really hard after you've had a series of wins to
Speaker 5: step back, right, because you just want to keep going
Speaker 5: and keep going.
Speaker 3: So you said something interesting when you got into the
Speaker 3: crypto space about you were mostly interested in just making money,
Speaker 3: so gambling on the price of a particular token. But
Speaker 3: there are a lot of people out there who assign
Speaker 3: particular values, let's say, to something like bitcoin or particular narratives,
Speaker 3: maybe is a softer way of saying it. How come
Speaker 3: you didn't get interested in that aspect of crypto.
Speaker 5: I think when I got in, I was actually not
Speaker 5: that cynical, and I thought you could do both. And
Speaker 5: I remember the really cool thing about that bull run,
Speaker 5: as Joe said in the intro, was like it was
Speaker 5: like using uniswap for the first time. It was like,
Speaker 5: this is, yeah, I'm just speculating on tokens and this
Speaker 5: kind of feels disconnected from the real world. But man,
Speaker 5: this is so fun. It's really cool to be a participant.
Speaker 5: I thought the technology was interesting and fun, if maybe
Speaker 5: there was kind of a lack of real world relevance.
Speaker 5: I think since then, I've gone through cycles of being
Speaker 5: more or less cynical, and I think that when it
Speaker 5: comes to narratives, I kind of think of four central
Speaker 5: ideas that people talk about with crypto, right, So, the
Speaker 5: first one is basically the casino, which is it's about
Speaker 5: the tokens. People trade the tokens. Exchanges make a lot
Speaker 5: of money off people trading the tokens, and that's what
Speaker 5: the space is about, and everything else is kind of
Speaker 5: narrative fluff. The second narrative idea is kind of the
Speaker 5: store of value. This mainly applies to bitcoin. This is
Speaker 5: digital gold, and people even take it further to talk
Speaker 5: about bitcoin as kind of a reserve current andcy or
Speaker 5: a monetary standard. And then the third kind of category
Speaker 5: of kind of fundamental idea for lack of a better term,
Speaker 5: i'd call future of finance. And there's a few sub
Speaker 5: ideas here, right, So one is around being your own bank,
Speaker 5: which is essentially the idea of interacting with financial products
Speaker 5: without the need to trust a big bank. Right, I
Speaker 5: can use ave and I'm just trusting the code. The
Speaker 5: second sub idea is effectively kind of modernizing the financial system. Right,
Speaker 5: so it takes what is it a day for stocks
Speaker 5: to settle When I do a trade and on you know, Solana,
Speaker 5: it's nearly instantaneous. And then the third thing is this
Speaker 5: idea of tokenizing marketplaces. So I think Helium is kind
Speaker 5: of the poster child of this. Right, I can essentially
Speaker 5: bootstrap a marketplace using a token that I just create
Speaker 5: out of thin air. I actually find that really interesting
Speaker 5: because for my money, it's like the thing that crypto's
Speaker 5: really good at is people can create tokens out of
Speaker 5: thin air and people really like to speculate on them.
Speaker 5: And if you can use that to do something in
Speaker 5: the real world, that seems pretty interesting. And then the
Speaker 5: four category I think of as Web three, and this
Speaker 5: is the be your own bank idea applied to the
Speaker 5: consumer Internet, you know, whether it's a social network or
Speaker 5: a game, and in control of my own content. And
Speaker 5: I think the odd thing about it to me is
Speaker 5: it feels like people are either entirely skeptical, like it's
Speaker 5: just a casino, or they're entirely on board, and it's
Speaker 5: like we're creating the future of finance in the Internet.
Speaker 5: And to me, I kind of have come around to
Speaker 5: like it's mainly a casino, and I'm kind of interested
Speaker 5: in some of these other ideas, Like I believe in
Speaker 5: store of value, and I think that the idea of
Speaker 5: token iszed marketplaces make a lot of sense. I think
Speaker 5: Web three I'm fairly skeptical of, but I think the
Speaker 5: ideas are quite a bit different. And sometimes it feels
Speaker 5: like crypto's kind of just like searching for a narrative
Speaker 5: that catches on among this kind of laundry list.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and some of them are contradictory too, store of
Speaker 3: value versus casino lottery ticket right go up.
Speaker 2: But yeah, so in the process of identifying the next trade,
Speaker 2: people turn this around on the stock market and I
Speaker 2: get there's plenty of just pure gambling in the stock market,
Speaker 2: but also in the stock market, like there is such
Speaker 2: a thing as people who make money by looking at fundamentals,
Speaker 2: like deeply looking at how this company is getting real
Speaker 2: user traction they're really selling a product. Like in the
Speaker 2: process of identifying the next one hundred bagg er microcap winner,
Speaker 2: is there alpha to be found in actually identifying a
Speaker 2: connection between what the so called project is and actual
Speaker 2: attraction or is it mostly sort of the reflexive war
Speaker 2: trading of I am going to be long this because
Speaker 2: I have reason to think that tomorrow someone else will
Speaker 2: belong this.
Speaker 5: I think that it depends on the type of trading
Speaker 5: you're doing and the type of thesis. In my experience
Speaker 5: with kind of the microcap on chain coins, you really
Speaker 5: want to have a thesis that is kind of orthogonal
Speaker 5: to price. Right. There's this marketplace called pump dot fund,
Speaker 5: which is like anyone can create a coin there and
Speaker 5: it just gets liquidity without any cost. And there were
Speaker 5: it was like a meme coin that was like the
Speaker 5: first one there, right, and I don't own it anymore,
Speaker 5: but it was kind of like, well, I think people
Speaker 5: will get on board with this because pump dot fun
Speaker 5: is getting a ton of volume, and this is like
Speaker 5: a proxy to be bullish on pump dot fund. By
Speaker 5: the way, I'm not chilling this coin because I don't
Speaker 5: own it anymore. But that's an example of a thesis
Speaker 5: that is not directly related to price. One of the
Speaker 5: best trades I ever had actually was poo coin back
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty one, really, and that was actually a
Speaker 5: very thesis driven trade, right because it was an application
Speaker 5: that people used to track their kind of low cap
Speaker 5: coins and it had this meme coin attached to it.
Speaker 5: I think if you're just trading technicals on small caps,
Speaker 5: it's a tough journey because it kind of is a
Speaker 5: zero sum game and the insiders and developers have an
Speaker 5: edge against you as a retail investor. So I think
Speaker 5: you have to have some idea that is, you know,
Speaker 5: somewhat original and is not reflected yet in price. Tracy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I noticed is like I've seen projects
Speaker 2: that'll say things like we're the first dog coin that
Speaker 2: launched on Avalanche, and it's like there's no real thing
Speaker 2: there except people are talking about this new layer one chain.
Speaker 2: So obviously you want to buy the first dog coin
Speaker 2: associated with that chain.
Speaker 3: It's like a newspeg, right, So you need a thing
Speaker 3: to hang interest off of. But Julian, so you mentioned
Speaker 3: some thesis driven trades, But talk to us a little
Speaker 3: bit more about what the day to day actually looks like.
Speaker 3: If you are in the crypto market, it doesn't sound
Speaker 3: like it's researching the underlying technology necessarily, But are you
Speaker 3: in the message boards? Are you trying to gauge upcoming
Speaker 3: interest in a particular token or coin.
Speaker 5: So I'll answer that by just going through the routine
Speaker 5: I follow when it comes to trading. So generally I
Speaker 5: try not to trade for the first half hour or
Speaker 5: so after getting up, just because I don't really know
Speaker 5: what's happening in the market until I've had a bit
Speaker 5: of a time to digest it. I'll go in some
Speaker 5: disco groups, I'll go on Twitter, I'll look at the charts,
Speaker 5: and I'll often have a hypothesis about how bo the
Speaker 5: week and the day will unfold. And that just helps
Speaker 5: because I want to have a hypothesis that's falsifiable. So
Speaker 5: I might look at the markets and say I think
Speaker 5: it's sideways bullish today, right, So I kind of want
Speaker 5: to look for longs and maybe some countertrend shorts, and
Speaker 5: so I'll maybe have a few trade ideas, and often
Speaker 5: for me, it's like I'm looking at maybe Bitcoin Ethereum,
Speaker 5: maybe like a few at coins that are particularly volatile
Speaker 5: that day, and basically I'll just kind of, you know,
Speaker 5: look at the charts and some of the technical tools
Speaker 5: that we can talk about, and I'll have a hypothesis
Speaker 5: that's like, Okay, I'm I'm kind of bullish on the day,
Speaker 5: so I want to get into a long position to
Speaker 5: this coin, but I kind of bet it goes back
Speaker 5: to this zone. So maybe I'll set up price alert
Speaker 5: right for a few coins where it's like I'm I
Speaker 5: don't want to just ape in immediately to this up proNT,
Speaker 5: I want to wait a bit. So maybe I've spent
Speaker 5: the first hour or two kind of getting a handle
Speaker 5: on what's going on in the market, is there any
Speaker 5: major news, setting some kind of price alerts for areas
Speaker 5: of interest for different coins, And then honestly it's kind
Speaker 5: of waiting around just observing, right, And often I'll kind
Speaker 5: of have a feeling of like, okay, am I understanding
Speaker 5: what's happening? Right? If I think that it's a sideways
Speaker 5: bullish day. Is is it playing.
Speaker 4: Out like that?
Speaker 5: And maybe one of my alerts goes off right, and
Speaker 5: it's kind of like, Okay, this coin is kind of
Speaker 5: in an area where I thought it might be interesting
Speaker 5: too long, and so I'll kind of enter a position.
Speaker 5: And once I've entered a position, then at least for
Speaker 5: like short to midterm training, it becomes a matter of
Speaker 5: actively managing it. And if the thesis is I think
Speaker 5: it's going to bounce around here, I want to see
Speaker 5: a pretty quick reaction or I'm out of the trade.
Speaker 5: Once I'm in a position, I'm kind of watching closely
Speaker 5: and I don't want to necessarily overmanage. But if the
Speaker 5: thesis is one about how it reacts, you know, in
Speaker 5: a kind of minute to minute basis, if I'm not
Speaker 5: seeing what I want to see, then I want to
Speaker 5: get out of the trade immediately. So that's kind of
Speaker 5: one type of way I deal with short to mid
Speaker 5: turn trades. Another way I might spend a day as
Speaker 5: kind of looking at different narratives. Right, So, like recently
Speaker 5: some of these real world asset coins have done well,
Speaker 5: So like onto Finance is one that's they're like taking
Speaker 5: treasury bonds and putting them on chain, and it's kind
Speaker 5: of like I was looking into that a while. It
Speaker 5: was like, I just think people are going to get
Speaker 5: really excited about anything that relates to the real world
Speaker 5: because so much of this space is so abstract, and
Speaker 5: so you know, Onto's one, but are there other coins
Speaker 5: that are in this real world asset space? So I'll
Speaker 5: kind of look on Twitter and maybe Massari, which is
Speaker 5: kind of a good research service that puts together different articles,
Speaker 5: and I'll kind of get us and say, Okay, here's
Speaker 5: like five coins in this rural asset space that maybe
Speaker 5: I want to get into long positions on. And then
Speaker 5: I'll look at the chart and say, okay, maybe I'll
Speaker 5: enter now, maybe I'll wait a bit. But really a
Speaker 5: lot of it is just about I have a hypothesis
Speaker 5: about how price will react, or I'm looking to get
Speaker 5: into a position, and then I'm just waiting until that happens.
Speaker 5: For me, when I think about the times I've made
Speaker 5: money and the times i haven't, some of it is luxure,
Speaker 5: but there's this emotional state when I'm doing well of
Speaker 5: almost a kind of bored curiosity. It's like the opposite
Speaker 5: of fomo, right, So I just want to be sitting
Speaker 5: around I maybe watching the price action, and it's really
Speaker 5: boring because I'm just waiting to see something clear, and
Speaker 5: you know, most of the time of the market you
Speaker 5: just don't want to be entering. So that's kind of
Speaker 5: a typical day, and it's it's not that exciting. I
Speaker 5: think if it's done well.
Speaker 4: I find it actually very interesting.
Speaker 2: They say, like professional poker players, which seems like it
Speaker 2: be fun. If you're doing it well, it should be boring,
Speaker 2: and that actually it's this miserable existence of spending twelve
Speaker 2: hours in the day and mostly folding your hands and
Speaker 2: mostly letting cards go by, and then waiting for opportunities.
Speaker 2: Poker well played in a cash game in a casino
Speaker 2: is not fun. Something I'm curious about. You know, with
Speaker 2: the launch of the Bitcoin ETF for the first time,
Speaker 2: there is a segment of traders that is on New
Speaker 2: York time, specifically bitcoin and crypto has always been twenty
Speaker 2: four to seven, but now there is this segment of
Speaker 2: trading that happens between nine thirty am Eastern and four
Speaker 2: pm Eastern, maybe some after hour stuff.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit about time zones and
Speaker 2: the different flavors of the market between when New York
Speaker 2: is up versus Asian hours versus maybe I don't know
Speaker 2: if European Hour is inflected so much.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good question. And it's funny because some
Speaker 5: of the better short term traders I know, we'll talk
Speaker 5: in great detail about the different zones, and it's like,
Speaker 5: this is the London kill zone from these two hours.
Speaker 5: I'm just like, can we just knock get so feis?
Speaker 5: But I do think the markets offer some differences, right, So,
Speaker 5: I think the New York hours tend to be, at
Speaker 5: least for what I do, a little bit better. There's
Speaker 5: a little bit more liquidity that the wics tend to
Speaker 5: be a little bit less involved overnight for me as
Speaker 5: someone who lives in New York, like the Asian hours
Speaker 5: there just tends to be a little bit more scammingists
Speaker 5: by scamming us something like weird kind of wis and stuff,
Speaker 5: and it feels like liquidity is often lower. It's funny
Speaker 5: because I sometimes like to trade these kind of long
Speaker 5: tail alt coins and sometimes you just see like really
Speaker 5: wacky things happen at strange hours, right, So it's like
Speaker 5: here's a project that is like founded by you know,
Speaker 5: an American team and backed by American investors, but for
Speaker 5: some reason, there's just a ton of interest in this
Speaker 5: project at three am on a Friday night, and it's like,
Speaker 5: I wonder what that is. You know, it's manipulation, right,
Speaker 5: but I think sometimes you see some really interesting manipulations
Speaker 5: in the Asian hours, right where there's not the big
Speaker 5: kind of New York liquidity, and that can be fun
Speaker 5: to trade. I think that as someone who you know
Speaker 5: sometimes likes to short things, I've definitely been tapped out
Speaker 5: a few times because I've gone a bit too early
Speaker 5: on some of those scamming up trends in.
Speaker 3: Terms of being tapped out. This is the other thing
Speaker 3: I was wondering, But what sort of risk management goes
Speaker 3: into positions here? And how are you keeping track of them?
Speaker 3: Because I imagine you're probably using a wallet, maybe multiple wallets,
Speaker 3: maybe different platforms. How are you sort of netting out
Speaker 3: those positions and managing that risk.
Speaker 5: I think now I try not to do many trades
Speaker 5: at once, and again, it's very easy to sound wise
Speaker 5: about risk management, and it's much harder to follow my
Speaker 5: own advice. But what I try to do is especially
Speaker 5: with these kind of either a short term trade or
Speaker 5: a counter trend trade. Typically I want to see reaction immediately.
Speaker 5: As a rule for myself, I have to have a
Speaker 5: stop loss. Right. In other words, if I'm longing a
Speaker 5: coin that just dropped thirty percent, I'm gonna have a
Speaker 5: stop where if it goes below a certain price, I
Speaker 5: exit the trade. But really I want to exit the
Speaker 5: trade immediately if it's not reacting the way I want
Speaker 5: it to before it hits my stop loss. So I
Speaker 5: think for me, the best risk management is, yeah, you
Speaker 5: have a stop loss. I don't want my account to
Speaker 5: be liquidated like used to happen to me, But I
Speaker 5: really just want to cut immediately if it's not going
Speaker 5: in my direction, and particularly on a trade that's like
Speaker 5: I'm shorting a coin that just went up fifty percent
Speaker 5: or I'm long end coin that went down a lot, Right,
Speaker 5: you just have to be really decisive in terms of
Speaker 5: trade management. There's various tools out there. I just crack
Speaker 5: it in an Excel sheet that steers, you know, the trade,
Speaker 5: here's the idea behind it, Here's how much I made
Speaker 5: or lost. I think it's a little bit different for
Speaker 5: longer term positions where it's I'm just gonna buy some
Speaker 5: of this spot coin and try to hold it for
Speaker 5: a few months and see what happens. I still treat
Speaker 5: that as a trade, but it's a little bit less.
Speaker 5: Maybe I don't have a stop loss because it's just
Speaker 5: a spot position.
Speaker 2: So you mentioned as part of your research or news
Speaker 2: consumption gathering, like going into various discords, and one of
Speaker 2: the things that strikes me about crypto is like a
Speaker 2: everyone is highly aware of the existence of manipulation. B
Speaker 2: You sometimes hear people talk very overtly about being part
Speaker 2: of a pump, and sometimes I'll get, you know, it's
Speaker 2: like this is a group and like, you know, sort
Speaker 2: of work together to like build hype for the coin,
Speaker 2: and I get the impression, though maybe I'm wrong, that
Speaker 2: people are searching for the inner sanctum, finding that one
Speaker 2: telegram group where there really is like people can move
Speaker 2: a market, or the one discord whether there's real alpha.
Speaker 2: Can you talk about like the process of identifying where
Speaker 2: good chat happens.
Speaker 5: I've been in a lot of different discord groups, and
Speaker 5: some of them are like people giving trade setups, and
Speaker 5: it's always that's interesting how you can have two traders
Speaker 5: trading the same trade setup with dramatically different results because
Speaker 5: of how they execute and manage their trades. The best
Speaker 5: groups I'm in, I'm not in that many now are
Speaker 5: just a relatively small amount of people basically talking. It's
Speaker 5: people sharing ideas. Maybe there's someone who's quite good and
Speaker 5: they're giving some setups. It's not just like here's a
Speaker 5: trader giving a trade setup, right. I think those rarely work.
Speaker 5: And there's even kind of memes like the Kramer etf
Speaker 5: the reverse. There's even things of like, here's this crypto
Speaker 5: influencer who's always wrong and we should fade them. Right.
Speaker 5: I think you're right that there is this notion of Okay,
Speaker 5: a lot of these pump and dump groups you don't
Speaker 5: want to be in because by the time they're shilling
Speaker 5: it to their followers, the pump has already happened and
Speaker 5: they're going to dump on the followers. Right. I have
Speaker 5: not found a lot of people that have successfully found
Speaker 5: the inner groups, right. I think the better move is
Speaker 5: to just try to identify the pumps somewhat early. And
Speaker 5: I think the bull market, like a few months ago,
Speaker 5: this was particularly good at this right, So like there
Speaker 5: was this coin Tia, which is like a modular blockchain token.
Speaker 5: You know, maybe it's you know, revolutionary technology, but the
Speaker 5: important thing is like it was kind of a hot
Speaker 5: narrative and a new token, and it was just going up,
Speaker 5: and I knew a lot of people who got in early,
Speaker 5: and it was kind of just like, I just think
Speaker 5: that through manipulation and through a lot of fomo, this
Speaker 5: thing is going to go a lot higher. And it did.
Speaker 5: And so I don't think you need to be part
Speaker 5: of a pump and dumb group. I think if you
Speaker 5: are an alert trader, you kind of identify some of
Speaker 5: these opportunities. I do think it's becoming a bit harder
Speaker 5: kind of the past week or two since the market
Speaker 5: has been a little more choppy and a bit down.
Speaker 3: Obviously, you've been trading crypto, and we've been very focused
Speaker 3: on that in this conversation, but have you ever been
Speaker 3: tempted by more well, I don't even want to say
Speaker 3: traditional assets, but something like zero day or one day
Speaker 3: options on equities, because you could potentially get the same
Speaker 3: satisfaction of seeing the line go up up in a
Speaker 3: relatively short amount of time.
Speaker 5: I've thought about it. I think that I would like
Speaker 5: to think that I'm not just purely gambling, even though
Speaker 5: I think that a lot of what we're doing in
Speaker 5: crypto is effectively gambling when I think about crypto, and
Speaker 5: I think that's a fair question, like why trade crypto
Speaker 5: versus another market?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 5: I think one answer is because you think it's an
Speaker 5: important technology and you want to invest in the future.
Speaker 5: And I would love to believe that more than I do,
Speaker 5: And I do believe that for a few things like
Speaker 5: bitcoin and maybe a few specific coins. But I think
Speaker 5: the reasons are more of like the trader reasons, right,
Speaker 5: So I think that the manipulations in crypto are just
Speaker 5: more apparent than in other markets. So one thing you
Speaker 5: often see is like stop punts. For example, right, say
Speaker 5: there's a coin that's like gone down, it's gone between
Speaker 5: twelve and fifteen dollars, You'll often see this quick wick
Speaker 5: below twelve dollars, and then it'll pump to like twenty dollars, right,
Speaker 5: And what's happening there, And again, it's not that simple
Speaker 5: to trade this, But what's happening is like there's a
Speaker 5: bunch of long positions with their stops below that kind
Speaker 5: of recent low of twelve dollars. So what the kind
Speaker 5: of market is going to do is it's gonna manipulate
Speaker 5: the price below that. It's gonna tap all those people
Speaker 5: out and maybe liquidate some positions, and then often it'll reverse.
Speaker 5: And I remember when I started trading futures, I kept
Speaker 5: losing money because I would place these obvious stop losses
Speaker 5: and they would get hunted. And so one thing that
Speaker 5: I think I'm doing when I'm trading well is I'm
Speaker 5: almost countertrading myself, right, I'm countertrading who I was when
Speaker 5: I started trading futures, which was like, I'm just going
Speaker 5: to place this obvious stop because if it goes there,
Speaker 5: it's probably gonna go a lot lower. And so I
Speaker 5: just think those opportunities are not quite as good in
Speaker 5: traditional markets. That said, they're not easy in crypto, it's
Speaker 5: just that I think that it's a little bit less efficient.
Speaker 5: And by the way, I'm not sure how long crypto
Speaker 5: will stay that way, right, I could see a world
Speaker 5: where in five ten years it's just been captured a
Speaker 5: bit more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it does seem what you say makes total sense
Speaker 2: that various sort of quasi manipulations are more obvious it's
Speaker 2: clearly a less liquid, even Bitcoin a less liquid, less efficient,
Speaker 2: wider spreads than legacy markets.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think they're all double edged swords, right, So, like, yes,
Speaker 5: they're manipulated and inefficient, but I've been on the wrong
Speaker 5: side of predatory manipulation before, and like, I don't blame
Speaker 5: anyone but myself, I kind of wish that I had
Speaker 5: of you that it was really bad, right, because I
Speaker 5: feel like for the stock market, I think that kind
Speaker 5: of blatant manipulation and pump and dumping is kind of
Speaker 5: a bad thing. And I wish that my view of
Speaker 5: crypto was like, this is a really serious space where
Speaker 5: we're creating really important stuff. And I would love to
Speaker 5: think that in a few years, right, And I'd love
Speaker 5: to kind of see more projects where I take it
Speaker 5: seriously and think that manipulation is bad. But I think
Speaker 5: for now it's like that's more of a feature than
Speaker 5: a bug as a trader, right, Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Can I ask a slightly personal question going back to
Speaker 3: this idea of you being in some ways the archetypal
Speaker 3: crypto trader, Why is it all guys? That's obviously a
Speaker 3: massive generalization. I'm sure there are some women out there
Speaker 3: trading crypto, but it does overwhelmingly seem to be men.
Speaker 3: Because the other thing I would say is when we
Speaker 3: go back to the narratives and this idea of like
Speaker 3: we're building a fairer financial system, it always struck me
Speaker 3: as crazy that we're going to build a fairer financial
Speaker 3: system with bitcoin or whatever and half the population is
Speaker 3: basically being left out of it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's definitely overwhelmingly young men. I meet people
Speaker 5: who are in their teams up to like early forties. Right.
Speaker 5: It's fairly global, and as you said, there are some women,
Speaker 5: but very few particularly, I think in the kind of
Speaker 5: trading world, you know. And I'd kind of be curious
Speaker 5: on how to compare to other forms of speculation, like
Speaker 5: among the population of people who are doing zero day options.
Speaker 5: I bet that skews male as well, although probably not
Speaker 5: nearly as much as crypto. I think that part of
Speaker 5: it is the culture, right, So there's definitely this vibe
Speaker 5: among a lot of traders, mostly young men. And I
Speaker 5: don't really believe this, but it's kind of like this
Speaker 5: is your last chance to get rich before the fall
Speaker 5: of Western civilization, rightting, And I don't believe that, but
Speaker 5: like that's kind of the feeling and like it kind
Speaker 5: of is adjacent to kind of the hustle culture, right,
Speaker 5: and the kind of like be a man and you know,
Speaker 5: hustle and make your own way. And I think that's
Speaker 5: definitely part of the culture of crypto. I think that
Speaker 5: there is kind of this human capital component that like
Speaker 5: when I think of my career, like not to toot
Speaker 5: my own horn, but I feel like I've been pretty
Speaker 5: good at the jobs I've done, and you know, I've
Speaker 5: spent a fair amount of time trading now, and I'm
Speaker 5: kind of like, is it Is it a great thing
Speaker 5: that a lot of guys like me are spending all
Speaker 5: this time gambling. I don't know if it's awesome for society, right.
Speaker 5: I feel like I can say that because it's being
Speaker 5: hard on myself more than anyone else, right. But I
Speaker 5: think that's a kind of another thing about crypto, which
Speaker 5: is I think one way to think about it is
Speaker 5: like there's a supply and demand for gambling and speculation, right,
Speaker 5: and so when I walk around New York and see
Speaker 5: the sports betting ads, right, it's kind of like, oh,
Speaker 5: this is kind of meaningful competition, right, where we're talking
Speaker 5: about kind of the demand among mostly young men for
Speaker 5: you know, speculation, and yeah, what are the options we
Speaker 5: have crypto, you have sports betting, you have things like
Speaker 5: zero day options and meme stocks. With that said, I
Speaker 5: really hope that I'm not super optimistic, but I would
Speaker 5: love for in five years to be like, Wow, this
Speaker 5: market created all this useful stuff and it's more like
Speaker 5: the stock market. And yeah there's speculation, but it relates
Speaker 5: to these things in the real world in a more
Speaker 5: tangible way. But right now it does feel like it's
Speaker 5: mostly guys, you know, speculating.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like that to your point, like that's
Speaker 2: sort of like and probably the fight club philosophy of
Speaker 2: if you don't make a fortune now before you're like
Speaker 2: twenty five, you're gonna be doing a nine to five
Speaker 2: off his job until you're sixty five and then they'll
Speaker 2: give you a watch and then. And it feels like
Speaker 2: that message just gets hammered home over and over again
Speaker 2: that if you don't score the big bag soon, you're
Speaker 2: going to live a life of basically working for the
Speaker 2: man in some miserable existence under terrible fluorescent lighting for
Speaker 2: the rest of your life.
Speaker 4: It seems like.
Speaker 2: That, so I want to you know, I like talking
Speaker 2: to you because you're frank about the fact that you
Speaker 2: like trading it, but that may be your aspirations for
Speaker 2: the technology may not materialize.
Speaker 4: I feel like.
Speaker 2: One of my frustrations when I talk to people who
Speaker 2: are professionals in the space, particularly operators or vcs, not
Speaker 2: necessarily traders, like I feel like I'm frequently being gas
Speaker 2: lit in the sense that they'll tell me something about
Speaker 2: some extraordinary thing that they're doing that's important technologically. In
Speaker 2: my sense is that it roots their you and that
Speaker 2: it really they're like, they're just in it for the gamble,
Speaker 2: And I'm curious in your interactions with various people parts
Speaker 2: of the ecosystem. Is this just me being like sort
Speaker 2: of like super cynical and I should be more open,
Speaker 2: or do you also observe this gap between like you,
Speaker 2: we're like building this really important thing for tokenizing real
Speaker 2: world assets and bridging them across chains.
Speaker 4: Et cetera, but that at heart it's about the line.
Speaker 5: So I think that in my experience, I've talked with
Speaker 5: a lot of both venture investors and founders, and over
Speaker 5: the past year I've kind of was curious about whether
Speaker 5: there was something useful I could do with crypto, and
Speaker 5: was kind of have been working on and off on
Speaker 5: this idea of like, you know, I've worked in health
Speaker 5: data and it's like, okay, I like the idea of
Speaker 5: tokenized marketplaces. Is there a way to kind of incent
Speaker 5: people to contribute their health data using a token, right,
Speaker 5: And it's kind of just like, well, you can create
Speaker 5: a token out of thin air, and that's a better
Speaker 5: cost of capital. So there are some interesting ideas here.
Speaker 5: And I've talked with a lot of vcs and founders
Speaker 5: and kind of try to suss out this question, as
Speaker 5: you mentioned, of like do people really believe in this
Speaker 5: stuff or are they just like me, Like maybe they
Speaker 5: believe in a few things, but mostly they're just trading
Speaker 5: the narratives. And I've come around to the fact that
Speaker 5: I think most people actually, yeah, maybe they're trading and
Speaker 5: pumping and dumping a little bit, but they do believe
Speaker 5: in the technology. And I say that just because it's
Speaker 5: just hard to work on this stuff. And I think
Speaker 5: it's hard to raise funds from like LPs if you
Speaker 5: don't have some conviction that we're actually changing the world.
Speaker 5: And I don't want to say that everyone's just you know,
Speaker 5: it's all motivated reasoning, right, But I think that for
Speaker 5: better or for worse, that's what a lot of folks believe.
Speaker 5: That the stuff really is going to be revolutionary and
Speaker 5: that the infrastructure we're creating will really have an impact.
Speaker 5: I'm skeptical of most of it, but I hope I'm wrong, right,
Speaker 5: And maybe I am, but I think that your instinct
Speaker 5: to be skeptical is correct. But I would just say
Speaker 5: I kind of want to take people out their word,
Speaker 5: you know, and if people are really saying that they
Speaker 5: think this is going to be this revolutionary technology, like,
Speaker 5: I think it's worth arguing kind of on the merits
Speaker 5: of that.
Speaker 3: I have just one more question, which is, if you
Speaker 3: made seven figures again, would you stop trading crypto and retire?
Speaker 5: So I've done fine recently, I've you know, made some money.
Speaker 5: I think that what I would do if I were
Speaker 5: to get back to kind of I don't even want
Speaker 5: to say my prior all time high, which was quite
Speaker 5: a bit. I've tried to just let go of that
Speaker 5: line of thinking altogether, actually, because I think a lot
Speaker 5: of the problem I ran into was basically having this
Speaker 5: notion of making it back, and so for me, I've
Speaker 5: tried to get rid of any notion of making a
Speaker 5: certain amount and just more focusing on the discipline of trading.
Speaker 5: I do think that, you know, and it goes back
Speaker 5: to the human capital part of this. I don't want
Speaker 5: to look back and be like, oh, I just traded
Speaker 5: for years and years on end, because when I look
Speaker 5: at my career, I think the other stuff I've done
Speaker 5: is probably you know, more valuable, and I think maybe
Speaker 5: there's like some way I can bring crypto into the
Speaker 5: other part of my career. Yeah, I don't want to
Speaker 5: be trading for like decades and decades, but the notion
Speaker 5: of getting back to a certain number and then quitting,
Speaker 5: I don't even want to think about that because that
Speaker 5: that got me into a lot of trouble.
Speaker 2: Just get back there, then sell half. Julian Melanach, so
Speaker 2: great to have you on. Great to have our first
Speaker 2: discord derived guest. People should come into the discord and
Speaker 2: chat with Julian, and great to have a sort of
Speaker 2: very fresh, honest, nuanced take on crypto, which is sort
Speaker 2: of rare.
Speaker 4: So really appreciate you coming on off on. Thanks so much, Tracy.
Speaker 2: I really enjoyed that conversation. It was super interesting. I
Speaker 2: appreciated that he was like kind of cynical, like I
Speaker 2: am totally cynical, and seemed fairly honest about like where
Speaker 2: his own like sort of marking to market his sort
Speaker 2: of thoughts in real time.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was also interesting to hear. I'm not sure
Speaker 3: I want to say due diligence, but the trading process
Speaker 3: on a day to day basis, and I think, like
Speaker 3: many things, it's not one extreme or the other. It's
Speaker 3: not just throwing darts at a board of tokens, but
Speaker 3: it's also not developing fundamental theories of technology and the
Speaker 3: future all the time. It's sort of somewhere in the middle.
Speaker 3: And then again the importance of narratives, which I think
Speaker 3: we got into it, but especially when it comes to bitcoin.
Speaker 3: One of the strengths of bitcoin at this point has
Speaker 3: to be its ability to contain multitudes of narratives, often
Speaker 3: conflicting ones as I mentioned, and just jumping from thing
Speaker 3: to thing, like disintermediating the entire financial system, but also
Speaker 3: boosting profit margins for Black Rock.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm going to say something that I'm
Speaker 2: purposely leaving to the end. So hopefully maybe some people
Speaker 2: are already too.
Speaker 3: No one we'll actually hear it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm going to say something, which is I've
Speaker 2: developed a theory of crypto trying to think about how
Speaker 2: I can say this in the least insulting way.
Speaker 4: I'm not going to use it. I'm not going to
Speaker 4: use any name calling.
Speaker 2: But what I think is that trading is fun in
Speaker 2: the sense that it's exciting to bet onlines. And I've
Speaker 2: done that in past lives, or twenty years ago when
Speaker 2: I was in college, I had a good time.
Speaker 4: Made and lost some money.
Speaker 2: I think that it's very hard, and most people intuitively
Speaker 2: know that it's very difficult in the stock market because
Speaker 2: there are armies of professionals looking at every piece of data,
Speaker 2: every piece of fundamental data, every piece of factor data,
Speaker 2: every piece.
Speaker 4: Of flow data.
Speaker 2: There are one hundred there are multi billion dollar institutions
Speaker 2: that have been doing this for decades. There are thousands
Speaker 2: of books that have been done on how to do this.
Speaker 2: I think most people intuitively know that it's difficult to
Speaker 2: find some sort of edge in security selection. And I
Speaker 2: think that one of the attractions of crypto is basically
Speaker 2: a stock market for.
Speaker 3: Oh, here you go, yeah, who.
Speaker 2: It's an easier stock market. Yes, that it's like kind
Speaker 2: of like stocks, except it seems a little easier because
Speaker 2: you could say, yeah, I think that the first dog
Speaker 2: coin on pump DoD fund will do well. I think
Speaker 2: that people are going to be into tokenization regardless of
Speaker 2: whether tokenization is happening.
Speaker 3: I think that's a nice way of saying it would be.
Speaker 3: It's a more level playing field in some way.
Speaker 2: In some ways, I believe, and even hearing Julian described
Speaker 2: that one nice thing potentially if you're a little bit
Speaker 2: savvy and crypto, is understanding manipulation patterns, the ease of
Speaker 2: identifying stop hunts. I like the way he put it
Speaker 2: where he says, I'm trading against the twenty twenty one
Speaker 2: version of me that left very obvious tells in the
Speaker 2: nature of the way I traded. It feels like a
Speaker 2: stock market where you don't need to be a super
Speaker 2: pro sa fata win.
Speaker 3: Here's what I think. It's all about the narratives picking
Speaker 3: up on the next big thing that's going to drive
Speaker 3: the price either higher or lower. And in that respect,
Speaker 3: if you're just a person that spends a lot of
Speaker 3: time on the internet, you might have a better handle.
Speaker 4: That's a great point.
Speaker 3: On those narratives, that's a great.
Speaker 2: Point, Like if it's all about the narratives, then you know,
Speaker 2: maybe really just being on Twitter and the discords is
Speaker 2: actually alpha.
Speaker 3: Yeah. And if it's all about the narratives and the stories,
Speaker 3: you either trade crypto or you become a VC.
Speaker 2: I guess yeah, right, it's the same thing.
Speaker 3: All right, shall we leave it there.
Speaker 4: Let's leave it there.
Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the All Loots podcast.
Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.
Speaker 2: Follow our guest Julian Malinak. He's at Julian Malinac and
Speaker 2: you should come into the discord and chat with Julian
Speaker 2: because he hangs out there. Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez
Speaker 2: at Carman ermann dash O Bennett at Dashbot, Keil Brooks
Speaker 2: at kel Brooks. Thank you to our producer Moses on
Speaker 2: them From more Odd Loots content, go to bloomberg dot
Speaker 2: com slash odd Lots, where we have transcripts the blog
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