WEBVTT - What a 'Degen' Crypto Trader Really Does All Day

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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<v Speaker 2>Tracy, there's been this big crypto run up. It's pulled

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<v Speaker 2>back over the last couple of weeks bitcoin got above

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<v Speaker 2>seventy thousand. We haven't really done crypto this cycle.

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<v Speaker 3>I know we did.

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<v Speaker 4>Meant, I have a theory for why we haven't done

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<v Speaker 4>on But what were you going to say?

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<v Speaker 3>You just don't want to talk about your theory. No,

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<v Speaker 3>there's a separate theory, Okay, I was gonna say. It

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<v Speaker 3>feels like a lot of stuff that's happening in this

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<v Speaker 3>cycle has happened before, and I know part of it

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<v Speaker 3>is the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, But I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>we have episodes on bitcoin ETFs from like years and

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<v Speaker 3>years ago. So if we do an episode, which we're

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<v Speaker 3>doing now, I think it should be about what the

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<v Speaker 3>difference is in the cycle. If anything, I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>just been boring.

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<v Speaker 2>And what I mean by that is like it's always

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<v Speaker 2>exciting when lines go up and down really fast, which

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<v Speaker 2>is why I am a market's journalist in the first place.

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<v Speaker 2>But I actually think there's almost nothing particularly interesting about

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<v Speaker 2>this cryptocycle, and in past one's like you know, there

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<v Speaker 2>released some narratives like web three and gaming to earn

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<v Speaker 2>and some of that stuff we did in the past,

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<v Speaker 2>or like how like uniswap works, like kind of some

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<v Speaker 2>interesting things about people, like redesigning markets or whatever. This one,

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<v Speaker 2>there's no thing there other than price and basically meme coins,

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<v Speaker 2>which vcs love to write thought pieces about but are

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<v Speaker 2>not really that interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>Joe, I think you are ignoring technological breakthrough that is

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<v Speaker 3>dogwth hat. Okay, that was not around no last cycle.

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<v Speaker 2>You're right, So we had doge coin and ship last cycle,

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<v Speaker 2>but neither of them had a hat in the last cycle,

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<v Speaker 2>so there have been some breakthroughs in putting cute hats

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<v Speaker 2>on the cute puppies for the coins. You're right, that

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<v Speaker 2>is progress.

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<v Speaker 3>But yeah, exactly, Okay, but we are doing a crypto

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<v Speaker 3>episode right now for the avoidance of doubt, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think the way we are coming at it is talking

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<v Speaker 3>to someone who has seen multiple crypto cycles at this point, and.

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<v Speaker 2>Also that if you accept the premise that basically the

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<v Speaker 2>only interesting thing is price and why things move around.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to hear from a VC. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>want to hear from someone who's doing some layer three

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<v Speaker 2>solution or some made up tokenization of a building in

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<v Speaker 2>New York City. I just want to hear from someone

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<v Speaker 2>who rides the ups and downs and what's that right? Like,

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<v Speaker 2>because if that's actually the only thing going on, which

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<v Speaker 2>I believe, then the only like true expert is not

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<v Speaker 2>the VC or the investor of the founder, but the

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<v Speaker 2>person who day to day is helping move that price

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<v Speaker 2>one direction or another.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I think that's absolutely true. The other thing that

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<v Speaker 3>I sometimes think about is what are crypto traders doing

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<v Speaker 3>on a day to day basis, Like, how do you

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<v Speaker 3>actually spend your time if you are trading crypto? What

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<v Speaker 3>does research look like?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>And then the other thing that kind of blows my

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<v Speaker 3>mind is just the amount of man hours and labor

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<v Speaker 3>power that is spent on thinking about whether or not

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<v Speaker 3>line goes up on chart.

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<v Speaker 4>Totally.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, on some level that's all finance is. But

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<v Speaker 2>I guess, like in traditional finance, I have some there's

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<v Speaker 2>a veneer of respect to there's a veneer, and I

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<v Speaker 2>have some intuitions about how the professionals in the space

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<v Speaker 2>make educated beds on whether the line is going up

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<v Speaker 2>or going to go down. And there's fundamentals and earnings

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<v Speaker 2>and momentum factors and all that stuff, and people different

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<v Speaker 2>try and I sort of understand what they try to do,

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<v Speaker 2>but I don't really know what the equivalent is in crypto.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think we got to learn and I think

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<v Speaker 2>we should talk to We got to talk to someone

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<v Speaker 2>who is in the space of like determining whether the

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<v Speaker 2>price is going up or down.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's do it.

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<v Speaker 4>So I'm really excited.

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<v Speaker 2>We have the perfect guest because not only has he

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<v Speaker 2>been a degenerate crypt trader for several years, it's the

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<v Speaker 2>first guest that we've had on on Lots who has

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<v Speaker 2>been sourced from our own Odd Lots discord, a active

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<v Speaker 2>participant in there. And I'm like, oh, this guy is

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<v Speaker 2>a smart guy. So why don't we like talk to

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<v Speaker 2>one of our own community members, a listener, someone who

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<v Speaker 2>chats with us from time to time, someone who's not

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<v Speaker 2>a VC writing big thought pieces about how the industry

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<v Speaker 2>works and the importance of memes.

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<v Speaker 4>Someone who's just trading the coins.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's do it. Yeah, I'm excited, all right, I am

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<v Speaker 3>very excited.

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<v Speaker 2>We are welcoming to the show. Julian Malinak. In his

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<v Speaker 2>professional life he does healthcare tech and data stuff, and

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<v Speaker 2>then in the other half of his life he's been

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<v Speaker 2>trading crypto for a long time. Julian, thank you so

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<v Speaker 2>much for coming on.

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<v Speaker 4>Odd lots my pleasure.

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<v Speaker 2>Why don't you just start off you're a crypto trader?

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<v Speaker 4>How did that happen?

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, So, I think that my journey was somewhat typical. Right. So,

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<v Speaker 5>for most of my career, I've worked in healthcare policy

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<v Speaker 5>and technology. I was in my early thirties working in

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<v Speaker 5>tech in San Francisco. If you think of crypto, it's like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 5>I in his early thirties in San Francisco working in tech.

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<v Speaker 5>That's kind of what you think of, right, you're the

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<v Speaker 5>architect exactly. And so I had heard about it and

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<v Speaker 5>had seen some lines going up and had some extra

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<v Speaker 5>money at that time. This was twenty twenty one, early

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty one, and from an early point it was

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<v Speaker 5>about the prices, right. I was curious about the technology,

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<v Speaker 5>but it really was about, Okay, these lines are going up.

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<v Speaker 5>It seems like people are making a lot of money.

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<v Speaker 5>Why not me? Right? And I think fairly quickly kind

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<v Speaker 5>of in that first year of trading, went through the

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<v Speaker 5>tour of opportunities available to I think the typical retail participant, right,

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<v Speaker 5>So started with Bitcoin and ethereum, went down the list

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<v Speaker 5>to like kind of the mid cap coins, right so

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<v Speaker 5>the top one hundred coins that are traded on exchanges,

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<v Speaker 5>but where there's just bigger ups and downs. Went to

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<v Speaker 5>kind of the world of microcaps, so coins that maybe

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<v Speaker 5>the market cap is one hundred thousand dollars and it

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<v Speaker 5>only trades on some on chained decks, it's probably going

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<v Speaker 5>to go to zero, but it might one hundred x.

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<v Speaker 5>So I had a few of those. A lot of

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<v Speaker 5>them went to zero. I had a few that did

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<v Speaker 5>go up a ton and made some money. And then

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<v Speaker 5>I also did during those first few years some yield

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<v Speaker 5>farming rights, so basically finding some obscure D five protocols

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<v Speaker 5>were they're typically rewarding users with kind of a native

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<v Speaker 5>token to a trash co liquidity and kind of like

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<v Speaker 5>a mercenary. I would just judge the yield verse risk

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<v Speaker 5>and go where it was best. And then as the

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<v Speaker 5>market went on. Oddly, my best week in crypto was

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<v Speaker 5>actually the lunar crash, whether through luck or insight, I

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<v Speaker 5>shorted a bunch of stuff and made a ton, and

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<v Speaker 5>then I think, unsurprisingly to a lot of veteran traders,

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<v Speaker 5>I just gave up most of that money in the

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<v Speaker 5>following months, right, And I think that often those kind

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<v Speaker 5>of euphoric periods you have and being your downfall, and

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<v Speaker 5>so I took some breaks after that. Luckily I didn't

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<v Speaker 5>have a lot of money in FTX, so I was

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<v Speaker 5>kind of taking a break from the market after that

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<v Speaker 5>huge you know, making a ton in Luna and losing it.

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<v Speaker 5>And then the past year I've gotten back into it,

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<v Speaker 5>focused mainly on short to mid term trades. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>I'll be honest that the strength of this rally, I

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<v Speaker 5>think if you had asked me a year ago, I

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<v Speaker 5>wouldn't have seen it going as high as it did.

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<v Speaker 5>But it turns out that the bitcoin ETF, as you said,

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<v Speaker 5>was a pretty big deal.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>So yeah, I've continued to trade and have been watching

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<v Speaker 5>the markets for a while now.

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<v Speaker 3>So you mentioned making money and losing money. Can you

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<v Speaker 3>talk to us a little bit more about what kind

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<v Speaker 3>of numbers we're talking about here, and beyond the Luna position,

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<v Speaker 3>what was the split like between money you made from

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<v Speaker 3>yield farming versus money just going long or short certain coins.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, I started with low six figures in crypto,

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<v Speaker 5>made I think on my best kind of small cap

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<v Speaker 5>position seven figures, and then Luna was my all time high,

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<v Speaker 5>and I could have kind of retired not with a

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<v Speaker 5>ton of money, but enough to live on for a

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<v Speaker 5>very long time, and then gave up most of that.

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<v Speaker 5>I didn't lose everything, but gave up what was seven

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<v Speaker 5>figure gains essentially, yea, okay, what's that like?

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<v Speaker 2>Going from having money where you're like actually could think

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<v Speaker 2>about retirement or maybe a modest retirement, to losing seven

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<v Speaker 2>It was then in that position.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it was funny because this is so fitting. So

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<v Speaker 5>I live in New York, right, and I remember in

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty two, it was like the week that I

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<v Speaker 5>started looking at these nice apartments to buy with cash

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<v Speaker 5>was the week where I wiped out forty percent of

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<v Speaker 5>my network. And I think that what happens in crypto

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<v Speaker 5>is basically it happens on both sides, right, So you're

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<v Speaker 5>early to some trend. So in my case in twenty

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<v Speaker 5>twenty two, I was early to the shorting or maybe

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<v Speaker 5>you were early to the bull market, right, And you

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<v Speaker 5>keep writing that and you grow more confident, right, and

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<v Speaker 5>you're betting bigger and bigger, and people you know who

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<v Speaker 5>are being conservative are making less money than the people

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<v Speaker 5>who are being really aggressive, right, and so you get

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<v Speaker 5>more and more aggressive, and then it violently shifts. Two

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<v Speaker 5>weeks ago, I heard a ton of stories from traders

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<v Speaker 5>I know who wiped out months and months of gains

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<v Speaker 5>in literally minutes, right. And I remember when this happened

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<v Speaker 5>to me the first time. You know, it was literally

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<v Speaker 5>months of I would like to say hard work, maybe

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<v Speaker 5>some luck wiped out in you know, an hour or two.

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<v Speaker 5>I had at the time been I think, going on

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<v Speaker 5>very little sleep. It was nauseating. It's hard to feel

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<v Speaker 5>sorry for someone who's just like gambling, right, But it

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<v Speaker 5>was kind of traumatic in the sense that it was

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<v Speaker 5>just so sudden and so fast, and I think it

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<v Speaker 5>really was pretty hard to recover from that from a

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<v Speaker 5>trading perspective, right, because you think about, oh man, I

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<v Speaker 5>really want to get back to that all time high,

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<v Speaker 5>and you're chasing that.

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<v Speaker 3>I would be upset if I lost that amount of money.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone would be upset.

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<v Speaker 2>I think, Yeah, I can't even fathom it. It does seem

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<v Speaker 2>like it's like a meme. Right. People even joke like

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<v Speaker 2>when the coins are going up, they're like, Oh, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>gonna load zillow dot com right now, so you should

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<v Speaker 2>probably start shorting. And so it's very funny that you

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<v Speaker 2>were literally looking at apartments to buy in all cash.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm kind of disturbed by my mindset in those times,

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<v Speaker 5>and I've had two or three times like that. I

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<v Speaker 5>think the worst was in twenty twenty two, but since then,

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<v Speaker 5>I've had a few blow ups like that. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>I've had some huge wins too, but it's just it's

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<v Speaker 5>really hard after you've had a series of wins to

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<v Speaker 5>step back, right, because you just want to keep going

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<v Speaker 5>and keep going.

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<v Speaker 3>So you said something interesting when you got into the

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<v Speaker 3>crypto space about you were mostly interested in just making money,

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<v Speaker 3>so gambling on the price of a particular token. But

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<v Speaker 3>there are a lot of people out there who assign

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<v Speaker 3>particular values, let's say, to something like bitcoin or particular narratives,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe is a softer way of saying it. How come

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<v Speaker 3>you didn't get interested in that aspect of crypto.

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<v Speaker 5>I think when I got in, I was actually not

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<v Speaker 5>that cynical, and I thought you could do both. And

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<v Speaker 5>I remember the really cool thing about that bull run,

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<v Speaker 5>as Joe said in the intro, was like it was

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<v Speaker 5>like using uniswap for the first time. It was like,

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<v Speaker 5>this is, yeah, I'm just speculating on tokens and this

0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.360
<v Speaker 5>kind of feels disconnected from the real world. But man,

0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:15.400
<v Speaker 5>this is so fun. It's really cool to be a participant.

0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:19.160
<v Speaker 5>I thought the technology was interesting and fun, if maybe

0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:21.720
<v Speaker 5>there was kind of a lack of real world relevance.

0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.920
<v Speaker 5>I think since then, I've gone through cycles of being

0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:28.120
<v Speaker 5>more or less cynical, and I think that when it

0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.760
<v Speaker 5>comes to narratives, I kind of think of four central

0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:34.760
<v Speaker 5>ideas that people talk about with crypto, right, So, the

0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:40.079
<v Speaker 5>first one is basically the casino, which is it's about

0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:43.640
<v Speaker 5>the tokens. People trade the tokens. Exchanges make a lot

0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:45.960
<v Speaker 5>of money off people trading the tokens, and that's what

0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.920
<v Speaker 5>the space is about, and everything else is kind of

0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:52.000
<v Speaker 5>narrative fluff. The second narrative idea is kind of the

0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:55.280
<v Speaker 5>store of value. This mainly applies to bitcoin. This is

0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.679
<v Speaker 5>digital gold, and people even take it further to talk

0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.439
<v Speaker 5>about bitcoin as kind of a reserve current andcy or

0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.960
<v Speaker 5>a monetary standard. And then the third kind of category

0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.840
<v Speaker 5>of kind of fundamental idea for lack of a better term,

0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:09.080
<v Speaker 5>i'd call future of finance. And there's a few sub

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:12.160
<v Speaker 5>ideas here, right, So one is around being your own bank,

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 5>which is essentially the idea of interacting with financial products

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.320
<v Speaker 5>without the need to trust a big bank. Right, I

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 5>can use ave and I'm just trusting the code. The

0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:26.640
<v Speaker 5>second sub idea is effectively kind of modernizing the financial system. Right,

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.960
<v Speaker 5>so it takes what is it a day for stocks

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.320
<v Speaker 5>to settle When I do a trade and on you know, Solana,

0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.240
<v Speaker 5>it's nearly instantaneous. And then the third thing is this

0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 5>idea of tokenizing marketplaces. So I think Helium is kind

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 5>of the poster child of this. Right, I can essentially

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 5>bootstrap a marketplace using a token that I just create

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 5>out of thin air. I actually find that really interesting

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.440
<v Speaker 5>because for my money, it's like the thing that crypto's

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.440
<v Speaker 5>really good at is people can create tokens out of

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:55.480
<v Speaker 5>thin air and people really like to speculate on them.

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:57.200
<v Speaker 5>And if you can use that to do something in

0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.720
<v Speaker 5>the real world, that seems pretty interesting. And then the

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:02.559
<v Speaker 5>four category I think of as Web three, and this

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 5>is the be your own bank idea applied to the

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 5>consumer Internet, you know, whether it's a social network or

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 5>a game, and in control of my own content. And

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.439
<v Speaker 5>I think the odd thing about it to me is

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.480
<v Speaker 5>it feels like people are either entirely skeptical, like it's

0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:18.360
<v Speaker 5>just a casino, or they're entirely on board, and it's

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.760
<v Speaker 5>like we're creating the future of finance in the Internet.

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:22.559
<v Speaker 5>And to me, I kind of have come around to

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.240
<v Speaker 5>like it's mainly a casino, and I'm kind of interested

0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:27.320
<v Speaker 5>in some of these other ideas, Like I believe in

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.080
<v Speaker 5>store of value, and I think that the idea of

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.360
<v Speaker 5>token iszed marketplaces make a lot of sense. I think

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 5>Web three I'm fairly skeptical of, but I think the

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.320
<v Speaker 5>ideas are quite a bit different. And sometimes it feels

0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 5>like crypto's kind of just like searching for a narrative

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.320
<v Speaker 5>that catches on among this kind of laundry list.

0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and some of them are contradictory too, store of

0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:50.199
<v Speaker 3>value versus casino lottery ticket right go up.

0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, so in the process of identifying the next trade,

0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:57.280
<v Speaker 2>people turn this around on the stock market and I

0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.360
<v Speaker 2>get there's plenty of just pure gambling in the stock market,

0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.840
<v Speaker 2>but also in the stock market, like there is such

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 2>a thing as people who make money by looking at fundamentals,

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 2>like deeply looking at how this company is getting real

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 2>user traction they're really selling a product. Like in the

0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 2>process of identifying the next one hundred bagg er microcap winner,

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 2>is there alpha to be found in actually identifying a

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 2>connection between what the so called project is and actual

0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 2>attraction or is it mostly sort of the reflexive war

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:37.120
<v Speaker 2>trading of I am going to be long this because

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.160
<v Speaker 2>I have reason to think that tomorrow someone else will

0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 2>belong this.

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 5>I think that it depends on the type of trading

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:44.239
<v Speaker 5>you're doing and the type of thesis. In my experience

0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:48.440
<v Speaker 5>with kind of the microcap on chain coins, you really

0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 5>want to have a thesis that is kind of orthogonal

0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 5>to price. Right. There's this marketplace called pump dot fund,

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:57.120
<v Speaker 5>which is like anyone can create a coin there and

0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 5>it just gets liquidity without any cost. And there were

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 5>it was like a meme coin that was like the

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 5>first one there, right, and I don't own it anymore,

0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 5>but it was kind of like, well, I think people

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 5>will get on board with this because pump dot fun

0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 5>is getting a ton of volume, and this is like

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:14.120
<v Speaker 5>a proxy to be bullish on pump dot fund. By

0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 5>the way, I'm not chilling this coin because I don't

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 5>own it anymore. But that's an example of a thesis

0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 5>that is not directly related to price. One of the

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.800
<v Speaker 5>best trades I ever had actually was poo coin back

0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.120
<v Speaker 5>in twenty twenty one, really, and that was actually a

0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 5>very thesis driven trade, right because it was an application

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 5>that people used to track their kind of low cap

0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 5>coins and it had this meme coin attached to it.

0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 5>I think if you're just trading technicals on small caps,

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.760
<v Speaker 5>it's a tough journey because it kind of is a

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 5>zero sum game and the insiders and developers have an

0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 5>edge against you as a retail investor. So I think

0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 5>you have to have some idea that is, you know,

0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:55.640
<v Speaker 5>somewhat original and is not reflected yet in price. Tracy.

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, one thing I noticed is like I've seen projects

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 2>that'll say things like we're the first dog coin that

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.280
<v Speaker 2>launched on Avalanche, and it's like there's no real thing

0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:09.000
<v Speaker 2>there except people are talking about this new layer one chain.

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:12.120
<v Speaker 2>So obviously you want to buy the first dog coin

0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.080
<v Speaker 2>associated with that chain.

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.680
<v Speaker 3>It's like a newspeg, right, So you need a thing

0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 3>to hang interest off of. But Julian, so you mentioned

0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 3>some thesis driven trades, But talk to us a little

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 3>bit more about what the day to day actually looks like.

0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.240
<v Speaker 3>If you are in the crypto market, it doesn't sound

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 3>like it's researching the underlying technology necessarily, But are you

0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 3>in the message boards? Are you trying to gauge upcoming

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.640
<v Speaker 3>interest in a particular token or coin.

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 5>So I'll answer that by just going through the routine

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 5>I follow when it comes to trading. So generally I

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:47.880
<v Speaker 5>try not to trade for the first half hour or

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:50.480
<v Speaker 5>so after getting up, just because I don't really know

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 5>what's happening in the market until I've had a bit

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:54.720
<v Speaker 5>of a time to digest it. I'll go in some

0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.120
<v Speaker 5>disco groups, I'll go on Twitter, I'll look at the charts,

0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 5>and I'll often have a hypothesis about how bo the

0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.000
<v Speaker 5>week and the day will unfold. And that just helps

0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 5>because I want to have a hypothesis that's falsifiable. So

0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 5>I might look at the markets and say I think

0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 5>it's sideways bullish today, right, So I kind of want

0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.960
<v Speaker 5>to look for longs and maybe some countertrend shorts, and

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:15.879
<v Speaker 5>so I'll maybe have a few trade ideas, and often

0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 5>for me, it's like I'm looking at maybe Bitcoin Ethereum,

0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 5>maybe like a few at coins that are particularly volatile

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.000
<v Speaker 5>that day, and basically I'll just kind of, you know,

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.000
<v Speaker 5>look at the charts and some of the technical tools

0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 5>that we can talk about, and I'll have a hypothesis

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 5>that's like, Okay, I'm I'm kind of bullish on the day,

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:33.879
<v Speaker 5>so I want to get into a long position to

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 5>this coin, but I kind of bet it goes back

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 5>to this zone. So maybe I'll set up price alert

0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:40.679
<v Speaker 5>right for a few coins where it's like I'm I

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 5>don't want to just ape in immediately to this up proNT,

0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 5>I want to wait a bit. So maybe I've spent

0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 5>the first hour or two kind of getting a handle

0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:48.720
<v Speaker 5>on what's going on in the market, is there any

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 5>major news, setting some kind of price alerts for areas

0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:54.679
<v Speaker 5>of interest for different coins, And then honestly it's kind

0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:58.240
<v Speaker 5>of waiting around just observing, right, And often I'll kind

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.160
<v Speaker 5>of have a feeling of like, okay, am I understanding

0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.920
<v Speaker 5>what's happening? Right? If I think that it's a sideways

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.080
<v Speaker 5>bullish day. Is is it playing.

0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:06.360
<v Speaker 4>Out like that?

0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 5>And maybe one of my alerts goes off right, and

0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 5>it's kind of like, Okay, this coin is kind of

0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:12.400
<v Speaker 5>in an area where I thought it might be interesting

0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 5>too long, and so I'll kind of enter a position.

0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.199
<v Speaker 5>And once I've entered a position, then at least for

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:20.560
<v Speaker 5>like short to midterm training, it becomes a matter of

0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.640
<v Speaker 5>actively managing it. And if the thesis is I think

0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 5>it's going to bounce around here, I want to see

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.160
<v Speaker 5>a pretty quick reaction or I'm out of the trade.

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.480
<v Speaker 5>Once I'm in a position, I'm kind of watching closely

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.680
<v Speaker 5>and I don't want to necessarily overmanage. But if the

0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.879
<v Speaker 5>thesis is one about how it reacts, you know, in

0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:39.280
<v Speaker 5>a kind of minute to minute basis, if I'm not

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 5>seeing what I want to see, then I want to

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:42.800
<v Speaker 5>get out of the trade immediately. So that's kind of

0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:45.119
<v Speaker 5>one type of way I deal with short to mid

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:47.199
<v Speaker 5>turn trades. Another way I might spend a day as

0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:50.400
<v Speaker 5>kind of looking at different narratives. Right, So, like recently

0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 5>some of these real world asset coins have done well,

0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.000
<v Speaker 5>So like onto Finance is one that's they're like taking

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.320
<v Speaker 5>treasury bonds and putting them on chain, and it's kind

0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.320
<v Speaker 5>of like I was looking into that a while. It

0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:01.919
<v Speaker 5>was like, I just think people are going to get

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:04.439
<v Speaker 5>really excited about anything that relates to the real world

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:08.000
<v Speaker 5>because so much of this space is so abstract, and

0:19:08.080 --> 0:19:10.600
<v Speaker 5>so you know, Onto's one, but are there other coins

0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:12.720
<v Speaker 5>that are in this real world asset space? So I'll

0:19:12.760 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 5>kind of look on Twitter and maybe Massari, which is

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 5>kind of a good research service that puts together different articles,

0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:20.359
<v Speaker 5>and I'll kind of get us and say, Okay, here's

0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.600
<v Speaker 5>like five coins in this rural asset space that maybe

0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 5>I want to get into long positions on. And then

0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.040
<v Speaker 5>I'll look at the chart and say, okay, maybe I'll

0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:30.280
<v Speaker 5>enter now, maybe I'll wait a bit. But really a

0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:32.760
<v Speaker 5>lot of it is just about I have a hypothesis

0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:34.640
<v Speaker 5>about how price will react, or I'm looking to get

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:38.120
<v Speaker 5>into a position, and then I'm just waiting until that happens.

0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:40.200
<v Speaker 5>For me, when I think about the times I've made

0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:43.240
<v Speaker 5>money and the times i haven't, some of it is luxure,

0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.159
<v Speaker 5>but there's this emotional state when I'm doing well of

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:49.920
<v Speaker 5>almost a kind of bored curiosity. It's like the opposite

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:51.639
<v Speaker 5>of fomo, right, So I just want to be sitting

0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:56.000
<v Speaker 5>around I maybe watching the price action, and it's really

0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:59.399
<v Speaker 5>boring because I'm just waiting to see something clear, and

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:01.639
<v Speaker 5>you know, most of the time of the market you

0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 5>just don't want to be entering. So that's kind of

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.639
<v Speaker 5>a typical day, and it's it's not that exciting. I

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.080
<v Speaker 5>think if it's done well.

0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:09.400
<v Speaker 4>I find it actually very interesting.

0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 2>They say, like professional poker players, which seems like it

0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:16.479
<v Speaker 2>be fun. If you're doing it well, it should be boring,

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 2>and that actually it's this miserable existence of spending twelve

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 2>hours in the day and mostly folding your hands and

0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:26.680
<v Speaker 2>mostly letting cards go by, and then waiting for opportunities.

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:29.200
<v Speaker 2>Poker well played in a cash game in a casino

0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:32.000
<v Speaker 2>is not fun. Something I'm curious about. You know, with

0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:34.879
<v Speaker 2>the launch of the Bitcoin ETF for the first time,

0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.560
<v Speaker 2>there is a segment of traders that is on New

0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.240
<v Speaker 2>York time, specifically bitcoin and crypto has always been twenty

0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 2>four to seven, but now there is this segment of

0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 2>trading that happens between nine thirty am Eastern and four

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:50.560
<v Speaker 2>pm Eastern, maybe some after hour stuff.

0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:50.960
<v Speaker 4>I don't know.

0:20:51.240 --> 0:20:54.159
<v Speaker 2>Can you talk a little bit about time zones and

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.800
<v Speaker 2>the different flavors of the market between when New York

0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:00.439
<v Speaker 2>is up versus Asian hours versus maybe I don't know

0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:02.080
<v Speaker 2>if European Hour is inflected so much.

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's a good question. And it's funny because some

0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.159
<v Speaker 5>of the better short term traders I know, we'll talk

0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 5>in great detail about the different zones, and it's like,

0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:14.480
<v Speaker 5>this is the London kill zone from these two hours.

0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 5>I'm just like, can we just knock get so feis?

0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 5>But I do think the markets offer some differences, right, So,

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.320
<v Speaker 5>I think the New York hours tend to be, at

0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:27.639
<v Speaker 5>least for what I do, a little bit better. There's

0:21:27.680 --> 0:21:31.280
<v Speaker 5>a little bit more liquidity that the wics tend to

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.480
<v Speaker 5>be a little bit less involved overnight for me as

0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:36.760
<v Speaker 5>someone who lives in New York, like the Asian hours

0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.400
<v Speaker 5>there just tends to be a little bit more scammingists

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 5>by scamming us something like weird kind of wis and stuff,

0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:46.320
<v Speaker 5>and it feels like liquidity is often lower. It's funny

0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:48.960
<v Speaker 5>because I sometimes like to trade these kind of long

0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:52.280
<v Speaker 5>tail alt coins and sometimes you just see like really

0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:55.919
<v Speaker 5>wacky things happen at strange hours, right, So it's like

0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 5>here's a project that is like founded by you know,

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:02.000
<v Speaker 5>an American team and backed by American investors, but for

0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:03.760
<v Speaker 5>some reason, there's just a ton of interest in this

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:06.439
<v Speaker 5>project at three am on a Friday night, and it's like,

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.880
<v Speaker 5>I wonder what that is. You know, it's manipulation, right,

0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 5>but I think sometimes you see some really interesting manipulations

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:16.520
<v Speaker 5>in the Asian hours, right where there's not the big

0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:19.120
<v Speaker 5>kind of New York liquidity, and that can be fun

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 5>to trade. I think that as someone who you know

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:24.280
<v Speaker 5>sometimes likes to short things, I've definitely been tapped out

0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:26.840
<v Speaker 5>a few times because I've gone a bit too early

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:28.840
<v Speaker 5>on some of those scamming up trends in.

0:22:28.840 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 3>Terms of being tapped out. This is the other thing

0:22:31.080 --> 0:22:34.400
<v Speaker 3>I was wondering, But what sort of risk management goes

0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:37.880
<v Speaker 3>into positions here? And how are you keeping track of them?

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:42.800
<v Speaker 3>Because I imagine you're probably using a wallet, maybe multiple wallets,

0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:46.200
<v Speaker 3>maybe different platforms. How are you sort of netting out

0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 3>those positions and managing that risk.

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:52.080
<v Speaker 5>I think now I try not to do many trades

0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:55.560
<v Speaker 5>at once, and again, it's very easy to sound wise

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:57.760
<v Speaker 5>about risk management, and it's much harder to follow my

0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:02.000
<v Speaker 5>own advice. But what I try to do is especially

0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:04.359
<v Speaker 5>with these kind of either a short term trade or

0:23:04.400 --> 0:23:07.879
<v Speaker 5>a counter trend trade. Typically I want to see reaction immediately.

0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:09.760
<v Speaker 5>As a rule for myself, I have to have a

0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:12.159
<v Speaker 5>stop loss. Right. In other words, if I'm longing a

0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:14.119
<v Speaker 5>coin that just dropped thirty percent, I'm gonna have a

0:23:14.160 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 5>stop where if it goes below a certain price, I

0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:19.639
<v Speaker 5>exit the trade. But really I want to exit the

0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:22.560
<v Speaker 5>trade immediately if it's not reacting the way I want

0:23:22.560 --> 0:23:25.359
<v Speaker 5>it to before it hits my stop loss. So I

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:27.720
<v Speaker 5>think for me, the best risk management is, yeah, you

0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:30.080
<v Speaker 5>have a stop loss. I don't want my account to

0:23:30.080 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 5>be liquidated like used to happen to me, But I

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:35.800
<v Speaker 5>really just want to cut immediately if it's not going

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:38.520
<v Speaker 5>in my direction, and particularly on a trade that's like

0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 5>I'm shorting a coin that just went up fifty percent

0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:43.760
<v Speaker 5>or I'm long end coin that went down a lot, Right,

0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:46.560
<v Speaker 5>you just have to be really decisive in terms of

0:23:46.600 --> 0:23:50.120
<v Speaker 5>trade management. There's various tools out there. I just crack

0:23:50.160 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 5>it in an Excel sheet that steers, you know, the trade,

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:54.880
<v Speaker 5>here's the idea behind it, Here's how much I made

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:57.040
<v Speaker 5>or lost. I think it's a little bit different for

0:23:57.080 --> 0:23:59.479
<v Speaker 5>longer term positions where it's I'm just gonna buy some

0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:01.640
<v Speaker 5>of this spot coin and try to hold it for

0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:04.240
<v Speaker 5>a few months and see what happens. I still treat

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 5>that as a trade, but it's a little bit less.

0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:07.879
<v Speaker 5>Maybe I don't have a stop loss because it's just

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:08.720
<v Speaker 5>a spot position.

0:24:09.080 --> 0:24:12.359
<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned as part of your research or news

0:24:12.400 --> 0:24:15.359
<v Speaker 2>consumption gathering, like going into various discords, and one of

0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.240
<v Speaker 2>the things that strikes me about crypto is like a

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:22.800
<v Speaker 2>everyone is highly aware of the existence of manipulation. B

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:27.440
<v Speaker 2>You sometimes hear people talk very overtly about being part

0:24:27.480 --> 0:24:29.880
<v Speaker 2>of a pump, and sometimes I'll get, you know, it's

0:24:29.880 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 2>like this is a group and like, you know, sort

0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:34.439
<v Speaker 2>of work together to like build hype for the coin,

0:24:34.600 --> 0:24:36.919
<v Speaker 2>and I get the impression, though maybe I'm wrong, that

0:24:37.119 --> 0:24:40.880
<v Speaker 2>people are searching for the inner sanctum, finding that one

0:24:40.960 --> 0:24:43.919
<v Speaker 2>telegram group where there really is like people can move

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:46.879
<v Speaker 2>a market, or the one discord whether there's real alpha.

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 2>Can you talk about like the process of identifying where

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 2>good chat happens.

0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:55.320
<v Speaker 5>I've been in a lot of different discord groups, and

0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:59.359
<v Speaker 5>some of them are like people giving trade setups, and

0:24:59.400 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 5>it's always that's interesting how you can have two traders

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.680
<v Speaker 5>trading the same trade setup with dramatically different results because

0:25:06.680 --> 0:25:09.960
<v Speaker 5>of how they execute and manage their trades. The best

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 5>groups I'm in, I'm not in that many now are

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 5>just a relatively small amount of people basically talking. It's

0:25:16.160 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 5>people sharing ideas. Maybe there's someone who's quite good and

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.760
<v Speaker 5>they're giving some setups. It's not just like here's a

0:25:22.800 --> 0:25:26.600
<v Speaker 5>trader giving a trade setup, right. I think those rarely work.

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.560
<v Speaker 5>And there's even kind of memes like the Kramer etf

0:25:30.640 --> 0:25:33.600
<v Speaker 5>the reverse. There's even things of like, here's this crypto

0:25:33.640 --> 0:25:36.800
<v Speaker 5>influencer who's always wrong and we should fade them. Right.

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:39.320
<v Speaker 5>I think you're right that there is this notion of Okay,

0:25:39.359 --> 0:25:41.600
<v Speaker 5>a lot of these pump and dump groups you don't

0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:44.040
<v Speaker 5>want to be in because by the time they're shilling

0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 5>it to their followers, the pump has already happened and

0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:49.320
<v Speaker 5>they're going to dump on the followers. Right. I have

0:25:49.400 --> 0:25:52.440
<v Speaker 5>not found a lot of people that have successfully found

0:25:52.480 --> 0:25:55.919
<v Speaker 5>the inner groups, right. I think the better move is

0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:59.760
<v Speaker 5>to just try to identify the pumps somewhat early. And

0:25:59.760 --> 0:26:01.960
<v Speaker 5>I think the bull market, like a few months ago,

0:26:02.000 --> 0:26:05.400
<v Speaker 5>this was particularly good at this right, So like there

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:09.560
<v Speaker 5>was this coin Tia, which is like a modular blockchain token.

0:26:09.640 --> 0:26:12.359
<v Speaker 5>You know, maybe it's you know, revolutionary technology, but the

0:26:12.400 --> 0:26:14.200
<v Speaker 5>important thing is like it was kind of a hot

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:17.399
<v Speaker 5>narrative and a new token, and it was just going up,

0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:19.240
<v Speaker 5>and I knew a lot of people who got in early,

0:26:19.280 --> 0:26:21.119
<v Speaker 5>and it was kind of just like, I just think

0:26:21.200 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 5>that through manipulation and through a lot of fomo, this

0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:25.760
<v Speaker 5>thing is going to go a lot higher. And it did.

0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:27.880
<v Speaker 5>And so I don't think you need to be part

0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 5>of a pump and dumb group. I think if you

0:26:30.160 --> 0:26:32.080
<v Speaker 5>are an alert trader, you kind of identify some of

0:26:32.080 --> 0:26:34.920
<v Speaker 5>these opportunities. I do think it's becoming a bit harder

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 5>kind of the past week or two since the market

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:39.520
<v Speaker 5>has been a little more choppy and a bit down.

0:26:39.920 --> 0:26:42.560
<v Speaker 3>Obviously, you've been trading crypto, and we've been very focused

0:26:42.600 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 3>on that in this conversation, but have you ever been

0:26:45.160 --> 0:26:49.760
<v Speaker 3>tempted by more well, I don't even want to say

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:53.680
<v Speaker 3>traditional assets, but something like zero day or one day

0:26:53.760 --> 0:26:57.960
<v Speaker 3>options on equities, because you could potentially get the same

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.679
<v Speaker 3>satisfaction of seeing the line go up up in a

0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:02.600
<v Speaker 3>relatively short amount of time.

0:27:02.840 --> 0:27:04.840
<v Speaker 5>I've thought about it. I think that I would like

0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:08.480
<v Speaker 5>to think that I'm not just purely gambling, even though

0:27:08.480 --> 0:27:10.159
<v Speaker 5>I think that a lot of what we're doing in

0:27:10.240 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 5>crypto is effectively gambling when I think about crypto, and

0:27:13.800 --> 0:27:15.880
<v Speaker 5>I think that's a fair question, like why trade crypto

0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:17.280
<v Speaker 5>versus another market?

0:27:17.320 --> 0:27:17.480
<v Speaker 4>Right?

0:27:17.480 --> 0:27:19.639
<v Speaker 5>I think one answer is because you think it's an

0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:22.280
<v Speaker 5>important technology and you want to invest in the future.

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:25.199
<v Speaker 5>And I would love to believe that more than I do,

0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:27.119
<v Speaker 5>And I do believe that for a few things like

0:27:27.160 --> 0:27:29.840
<v Speaker 5>bitcoin and maybe a few specific coins. But I think

0:27:29.840 --> 0:27:32.880
<v Speaker 5>the reasons are more of like the trader reasons, right,

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 5>So I think that the manipulations in crypto are just

0:27:36.880 --> 0:27:40.439
<v Speaker 5>more apparent than in other markets. So one thing you

0:27:40.520 --> 0:27:44.159
<v Speaker 5>often see is like stop punts. For example, right, say

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:47.359
<v Speaker 5>there's a coin that's like gone down, it's gone between

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.560
<v Speaker 5>twelve and fifteen dollars, You'll often see this quick wick

0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:53.600
<v Speaker 5>below twelve dollars, and then it'll pump to like twenty dollars, right,

0:27:53.640 --> 0:27:56.720
<v Speaker 5>And what's happening there, And again, it's not that simple

0:27:56.760 --> 0:27:58.679
<v Speaker 5>to trade this, But what's happening is like there's a

0:27:58.680 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 5>bunch of long positions with their stops below that kind

0:28:02.000 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 5>of recent low of twelve dollars. So what the kind

0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:07.440
<v Speaker 5>of market is going to do is it's gonna manipulate

0:28:07.440 --> 0:28:10.520
<v Speaker 5>the price below that. It's gonna tap all those people

0:28:10.560 --> 0:28:13.800
<v Speaker 5>out and maybe liquidate some positions, and then often it'll reverse.

0:28:14.240 --> 0:28:17.600
<v Speaker 5>And I remember when I started trading futures, I kept

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:20.440
<v Speaker 5>losing money because I would place these obvious stop losses

0:28:20.800 --> 0:28:22.800
<v Speaker 5>and they would get hunted. And so one thing that

0:28:22.840 --> 0:28:25.360
<v Speaker 5>I think I'm doing when I'm trading well is I'm

0:28:25.359 --> 0:28:29.879
<v Speaker 5>almost countertrading myself, right, I'm countertrading who I was when

0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:32.000
<v Speaker 5>I started trading futures, which was like, I'm just going

0:28:32.040 --> 0:28:34.280
<v Speaker 5>to place this obvious stop because if it goes there,

0:28:34.280 --> 0:28:36.760
<v Speaker 5>it's probably gonna go a lot lower. And so I

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:39.000
<v Speaker 5>just think those opportunities are not quite as good in

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 5>traditional markets. That said, they're not easy in crypto, it's

0:28:43.280 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 5>just that I think that it's a little bit less efficient.

0:28:46.520 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 5>And by the way, I'm not sure how long crypto

0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:50.960
<v Speaker 5>will stay that way, right, I could see a world

0:28:51.040 --> 0:28:55.240
<v Speaker 5>where in five ten years it's just been captured a

0:28:55.240 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 5>bit more.

0:28:55.840 --> 0:28:58.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it does seem what you say makes total sense

0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:02.640
<v Speaker 2>that various sort of quasi manipulations are more obvious it's

0:29:02.760 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 2>clearly a less liquid, even Bitcoin a less liquid, less efficient,

0:29:09.640 --> 0:29:13.080
<v Speaker 2>wider spreads than legacy markets.

0:29:13.160 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and I think they're all double edged swords, right, So, like, yes,

0:29:16.080 --> 0:29:18.880
<v Speaker 5>they're manipulated and inefficient, but I've been on the wrong

0:29:18.920 --> 0:29:21.920
<v Speaker 5>side of predatory manipulation before, and like, I don't blame

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 5>anyone but myself, I kind of wish that I had

0:29:25.160 --> 0:29:27.280
<v Speaker 5>of you that it was really bad, right, because I

0:29:27.320 --> 0:29:30.160
<v Speaker 5>feel like for the stock market, I think that kind

0:29:30.160 --> 0:29:33.120
<v Speaker 5>of blatant manipulation and pump and dumping is kind of

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:35.640
<v Speaker 5>a bad thing. And I wish that my view of

0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:38.440
<v Speaker 5>crypto was like, this is a really serious space where

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:41.120
<v Speaker 5>we're creating really important stuff. And I would love to

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.200
<v Speaker 5>think that in a few years, right, And I'd love

0:29:43.280 --> 0:29:45.560
<v Speaker 5>to kind of see more projects where I take it

0:29:45.600 --> 0:29:47.840
<v Speaker 5>seriously and think that manipulation is bad. But I think

0:29:47.920 --> 0:29:50.280
<v Speaker 5>for now it's like that's more of a feature than

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:51.920
<v Speaker 5>a bug as a trader, right, Yeah.

0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:52.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:29:52.280 --> 0:29:55.719
<v Speaker 3>Can I ask a slightly personal question going back to

0:29:55.760 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 3>this idea of you being in some ways the archetypal

0:29:58.560 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 3>crypto trader, Why is it all guys? That's obviously a

0:30:03.120 --> 0:30:06.240
<v Speaker 3>massive generalization. I'm sure there are some women out there

0:30:06.280 --> 0:30:11.440
<v Speaker 3>trading crypto, but it does overwhelmingly seem to be men.

0:30:11.720 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 3>Because the other thing I would say is when we

0:30:14.400 --> 0:30:16.240
<v Speaker 3>go back to the narratives and this idea of like

0:30:16.280 --> 0:30:19.400
<v Speaker 3>we're building a fairer financial system, it always struck me

0:30:19.480 --> 0:30:22.800
<v Speaker 3>as crazy that we're going to build a fairer financial

0:30:22.840 --> 0:30:26.760
<v Speaker 3>system with bitcoin or whatever and half the population is

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:28.160
<v Speaker 3>basically being left out of it.

0:30:28.480 --> 0:30:33.120
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so it's definitely overwhelmingly young men. I meet people

0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:36.520
<v Speaker 5>who are in their teams up to like early forties. Right.

0:30:36.640 --> 0:30:39.720
<v Speaker 5>It's fairly global, and as you said, there are some women,

0:30:39.800 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 5>but very few particularly, I think in the kind of

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 5>trading world, you know. And I'd kind of be curious

0:30:45.440 --> 0:30:48.360
<v Speaker 5>on how to compare to other forms of speculation, like

0:30:48.920 --> 0:30:52.480
<v Speaker 5>among the population of people who are doing zero day options.

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:55.560
<v Speaker 5>I bet that skews male as well, although probably not

0:30:55.640 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 5>nearly as much as crypto. I think that part of

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:01.960
<v Speaker 5>it is the culture, right, So there's definitely this vibe

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.320
<v Speaker 5>among a lot of traders, mostly young men. And I

0:31:05.320 --> 0:31:07.560
<v Speaker 5>don't really believe this, but it's kind of like this

0:31:07.720 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 5>is your last chance to get rich before the fall

0:31:11.120 --> 0:31:14.239
<v Speaker 5>of Western civilization, rightting, And I don't believe that, but

0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:16.760
<v Speaker 5>like that's kind of the feeling and like it kind

0:31:16.800 --> 0:31:19.960
<v Speaker 5>of is adjacent to kind of the hustle culture, right,

0:31:20.000 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 5>and the kind of like be a man and you know,

0:31:22.480 --> 0:31:24.400
<v Speaker 5>hustle and make your own way. And I think that's

0:31:24.480 --> 0:31:27.680
<v Speaker 5>definitely part of the culture of crypto. I think that

0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 5>there is kind of this human capital component that like

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 5>when I think of my career, like not to toot

0:31:33.360 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 5>my own horn, but I feel like I've been pretty

0:31:35.280 --> 0:31:37.440
<v Speaker 5>good at the jobs I've done, and you know, I've

0:31:37.480 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 5>spent a fair amount of time trading now, and I'm

0:31:39.880 --> 0:31:41.600
<v Speaker 5>kind of like, is it Is it a great thing

0:31:41.640 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 5>that a lot of guys like me are spending all

0:31:43.680 --> 0:31:47.080
<v Speaker 5>this time gambling. I don't know if it's awesome for society, right.

0:31:47.160 --> 0:31:48.800
<v Speaker 5>I feel like I can say that because it's being

0:31:48.800 --> 0:31:51.360
<v Speaker 5>hard on myself more than anyone else, right. But I

0:31:51.400 --> 0:31:54.280
<v Speaker 5>think that's a kind of another thing about crypto, which

0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:56.520
<v Speaker 5>is I think one way to think about it is

0:31:56.520 --> 0:31:59.840
<v Speaker 5>like there's a supply and demand for gambling and speculation, right,

0:31:59.880 --> 0:32:02.360
<v Speaker 5>and so when I walk around New York and see

0:32:02.440 --> 0:32:04.760
<v Speaker 5>the sports betting ads, right, it's kind of like, oh,

0:32:04.760 --> 0:32:08.040
<v Speaker 5>this is kind of meaningful competition, right, where we're talking

0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 5>about kind of the demand among mostly young men for

0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 5>you know, speculation, and yeah, what are the options we

0:32:13.720 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 5>have crypto, you have sports betting, you have things like

0:32:16.440 --> 0:32:19.480
<v Speaker 5>zero day options and meme stocks. With that said, I

0:32:19.920 --> 0:32:22.720
<v Speaker 5>really hope that I'm not super optimistic, but I would

0:32:22.760 --> 0:32:25.440
<v Speaker 5>love for in five years to be like, Wow, this

0:32:25.520 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 5>market created all this useful stuff and it's more like

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 5>the stock market. And yeah there's speculation, but it relates

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:32.760
<v Speaker 5>to these things in the real world in a more

0:32:32.840 --> 0:32:35.480
<v Speaker 5>tangible way. But right now it does feel like it's

0:32:35.520 --> 0:32:37.680
<v Speaker 5>mostly guys, you know, speculating.

0:32:54.040 --> 0:32:57.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it feels like that to your point, like that's

0:32:57.360 --> 0:33:01.080
<v Speaker 2>sort of like and probably the fight club philosophy of

0:33:01.200 --> 0:33:03.800
<v Speaker 2>if you don't make a fortune now before you're like

0:33:03.840 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 2>twenty five, you're gonna be doing a nine to five

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:10.360
<v Speaker 2>off his job until you're sixty five and then they'll

0:33:10.360 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 2>give you a watch and then. And it feels like

0:33:12.640 --> 0:33:15.400
<v Speaker 2>that message just gets hammered home over and over again

0:33:15.800 --> 0:33:18.360
<v Speaker 2>that if you don't score the big bag soon, you're

0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:21.360
<v Speaker 2>going to live a life of basically working for the

0:33:21.400 --> 0:33:25.840
<v Speaker 2>man in some miserable existence under terrible fluorescent lighting for

0:33:25.880 --> 0:33:26.720
<v Speaker 2>the rest of your life.

0:33:26.760 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 4>It seems like.

0:33:27.400 --> 0:33:29.560
<v Speaker 2>That, so I want to you know, I like talking

0:33:29.600 --> 0:33:32.720
<v Speaker 2>to you because you're frank about the fact that you

0:33:32.880 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 2>like trading it, but that may be your aspirations for

0:33:35.240 --> 0:33:37.760
<v Speaker 2>the technology may not materialize.

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 4>I feel like.

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 2>One of my frustrations when I talk to people who

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:45.320
<v Speaker 2>are professionals in the space, particularly operators or vcs, not

0:33:45.360 --> 0:33:48.360
<v Speaker 2>necessarily traders, like I feel like I'm frequently being gas

0:33:48.360 --> 0:33:51.760
<v Speaker 2>lit in the sense that they'll tell me something about

0:33:51.840 --> 0:33:55.640
<v Speaker 2>some extraordinary thing that they're doing that's important technologically. In

0:33:55.800 --> 0:33:59.520
<v Speaker 2>my sense is that it roots their you and that

0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:02.520
<v Speaker 2>it really they're like, they're just in it for the gamble,

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:07.000
<v Speaker 2>And I'm curious in your interactions with various people parts

0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:10.399
<v Speaker 2>of the ecosystem. Is this just me being like sort

0:34:10.440 --> 0:34:12.479
<v Speaker 2>of like super cynical and I should be more open,

0:34:12.920 --> 0:34:15.840
<v Speaker 2>or do you also observe this gap between like you,

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:18.839
<v Speaker 2>we're like building this really important thing for tokenizing real

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:21.200
<v Speaker 2>world assets and bridging them across chains.

0:34:20.960 --> 0:34:24.440
<v Speaker 4>Et cetera, but that at heart it's about the line.

0:34:24.600 --> 0:34:27.879
<v Speaker 5>So I think that in my experience, I've talked with

0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:31.759
<v Speaker 5>a lot of both venture investors and founders, and over

0:34:31.760 --> 0:34:34.399
<v Speaker 5>the past year I've kind of was curious about whether

0:34:34.440 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 5>there was something useful I could do with crypto, and

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:39.480
<v Speaker 5>was kind of have been working on and off on

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:41.759
<v Speaker 5>this idea of like, you know, I've worked in health

0:34:41.800 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 5>data and it's like, okay, I like the idea of

0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:47.480
<v Speaker 5>tokenized marketplaces. Is there a way to kind of incent

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:50.239
<v Speaker 5>people to contribute their health data using a token, right,

0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:51.879
<v Speaker 5>And it's kind of just like, well, you can create

0:34:51.920 --> 0:34:53.880
<v Speaker 5>a token out of thin air, and that's a better

0:34:53.880 --> 0:34:56.960
<v Speaker 5>cost of capital. So there are some interesting ideas here.

0:34:57.280 --> 0:34:59.560
<v Speaker 5>And I've talked with a lot of vcs and founders

0:34:59.560 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 5>and kind of try to suss out this question, as

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:03.640
<v Speaker 5>you mentioned, of like do people really believe in this

0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:06.399
<v Speaker 5>stuff or are they just like me, Like maybe they

0:35:06.400 --> 0:35:08.400
<v Speaker 5>believe in a few things, but mostly they're just trading

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:11.080
<v Speaker 5>the narratives. And I've come around to the fact that

0:35:11.160 --> 0:35:15.040
<v Speaker 5>I think most people actually, yeah, maybe they're trading and

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:17.560
<v Speaker 5>pumping and dumping a little bit, but they do believe

0:35:18.320 --> 0:35:21.359
<v Speaker 5>in the technology. And I say that just because it's

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.200
<v Speaker 5>just hard to work on this stuff. And I think

0:35:23.200 --> 0:35:26.560
<v Speaker 5>it's hard to raise funds from like LPs if you

0:35:26.640 --> 0:35:30.240
<v Speaker 5>don't have some conviction that we're actually changing the world.

0:35:30.480 --> 0:35:32.719
<v Speaker 5>And I don't want to say that everyone's just you know,

0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:36.680
<v Speaker 5>it's all motivated reasoning, right, But I think that for

0:35:36.800 --> 0:35:39.200
<v Speaker 5>better or for worse, that's what a lot of folks believe.

0:35:39.280 --> 0:35:41.680
<v Speaker 5>That the stuff really is going to be revolutionary and

0:35:41.719 --> 0:35:45.360
<v Speaker 5>that the infrastructure we're creating will really have an impact.

0:35:45.920 --> 0:35:48.960
<v Speaker 5>I'm skeptical of most of it, but I hope I'm wrong, right,

0:35:49.000 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 5>And maybe I am, but I think that your instinct

0:35:51.880 --> 0:35:54.880
<v Speaker 5>to be skeptical is correct. But I would just say

0:35:55.200 --> 0:35:56.839
<v Speaker 5>I kind of want to take people out their word,

0:35:56.880 --> 0:35:59.279
<v Speaker 5>you know, and if people are really saying that they

0:35:59.320 --> 0:36:02.480
<v Speaker 5>think this is going to be this revolutionary technology, like,

0:36:02.680 --> 0:36:04.760
<v Speaker 5>I think it's worth arguing kind of on the merits

0:36:04.760 --> 0:36:05.040
<v Speaker 5>of that.

0:36:05.480 --> 0:36:08.960
<v Speaker 3>I have just one more question, which is, if you

0:36:09.080 --> 0:36:13.880
<v Speaker 3>made seven figures again, would you stop trading crypto and retire?

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:17.640
<v Speaker 5>So I've done fine recently, I've you know, made some money.

0:36:17.920 --> 0:36:20.000
<v Speaker 5>I think that what I would do if I were

0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:22.279
<v Speaker 5>to get back to kind of I don't even want

0:36:22.280 --> 0:36:24.120
<v Speaker 5>to say my prior all time high, which was quite

0:36:24.120 --> 0:36:28.359
<v Speaker 5>a bit. I've tried to just let go of that

0:36:28.400 --> 0:36:32.120
<v Speaker 5>line of thinking altogether, actually, because I think a lot

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:34.600
<v Speaker 5>of the problem I ran into was basically having this

0:36:34.719 --> 0:36:37.560
<v Speaker 5>notion of making it back, and so for me, I've

0:36:37.560 --> 0:36:39.880
<v Speaker 5>tried to get rid of any notion of making a

0:36:39.920 --> 0:36:43.040
<v Speaker 5>certain amount and just more focusing on the discipline of trading.

0:36:43.239 --> 0:36:45.640
<v Speaker 5>I do think that, you know, and it goes back

0:36:45.640 --> 0:36:47.920
<v Speaker 5>to the human capital part of this. I don't want

0:36:47.920 --> 0:36:49.960
<v Speaker 5>to look back and be like, oh, I just traded

0:36:50.080 --> 0:36:52.200
<v Speaker 5>for years and years on end, because when I look

0:36:52.200 --> 0:36:54.279
<v Speaker 5>at my career, I think the other stuff I've done

0:36:54.360 --> 0:36:56.720
<v Speaker 5>is probably you know, more valuable, and I think maybe

0:36:56.719 --> 0:36:59.880
<v Speaker 5>there's like some way I can bring crypto into the

0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.040
<v Speaker 5>other part of my career. Yeah, I don't want to

0:37:02.080 --> 0:37:04.680
<v Speaker 5>be trading for like decades and decades, but the notion

0:37:04.760 --> 0:37:06.760
<v Speaker 5>of getting back to a certain number and then quitting,

0:37:06.880 --> 0:37:09.000
<v Speaker 5>I don't even want to think about that because that

0:37:09.000 --> 0:37:10.520
<v Speaker 5>that got me into a lot of trouble.

0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:15.239
<v Speaker 2>Just get back there, then sell half. Julian Melanach, so

0:37:15.320 --> 0:37:17.280
<v Speaker 2>great to have you on. Great to have our first

0:37:17.560 --> 0:37:20.920
<v Speaker 2>discord derived guest. People should come into the discord and

0:37:21.000 --> 0:37:23.960
<v Speaker 2>chat with Julian, and great to have a sort of

0:37:24.120 --> 0:37:27.480
<v Speaker 2>very fresh, honest, nuanced take on crypto, which is sort

0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:27.799
<v Speaker 2>of rare.

0:37:27.880 --> 0:37:43.760
<v Speaker 4>So really appreciate you coming on off on. Thanks so much, Tracy.

0:37:43.800 --> 0:37:47.520
<v Speaker 2>I really enjoyed that conversation. It was super interesting. I

0:37:47.600 --> 0:37:51.239
<v Speaker 2>appreciated that he was like kind of cynical, like I

0:37:51.239 --> 0:37:56.239
<v Speaker 2>am totally cynical, and seemed fairly honest about like where

0:37:56.280 --> 0:37:58.879
<v Speaker 2>his own like sort of marking to market his sort

0:37:58.920 --> 0:37:59.959
<v Speaker 2>of thoughts in real time.

0:38:00.200 --> 0:38:02.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was also interesting to hear. I'm not sure

0:38:02.520 --> 0:38:05.480
<v Speaker 3>I want to say due diligence, but the trading process

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:08.040
<v Speaker 3>on a day to day basis, and I think, like

0:38:08.239 --> 0:38:11.560
<v Speaker 3>many things, it's not one extreme or the other. It's

0:38:11.600 --> 0:38:14.759
<v Speaker 3>not just throwing darts at a board of tokens, but

0:38:14.880 --> 0:38:19.520
<v Speaker 3>it's also not developing fundamental theories of technology and the

0:38:19.560 --> 0:38:22.280
<v Speaker 3>future all the time. It's sort of somewhere in the middle.

0:38:22.680 --> 0:38:25.840
<v Speaker 3>And then again the importance of narratives, which I think

0:38:26.280 --> 0:38:28.960
<v Speaker 3>we got into it, but especially when it comes to bitcoin.

0:38:29.080 --> 0:38:31.640
<v Speaker 3>One of the strengths of bitcoin at this point has

0:38:31.760 --> 0:38:36.440
<v Speaker 3>to be its ability to contain multitudes of narratives, often

0:38:36.680 --> 0:38:40.239
<v Speaker 3>conflicting ones as I mentioned, and just jumping from thing

0:38:40.320 --> 0:38:44.720
<v Speaker 3>to thing, like disintermediating the entire financial system, but also

0:38:45.080 --> 0:38:47.239
<v Speaker 3>boosting profit margins for Black Rock.

0:38:47.360 --> 0:38:50.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I'm going to say something that I'm

0:38:50.120 --> 0:38:53.440
<v Speaker 2>purposely leaving to the end. So hopefully maybe some people

0:38:53.440 --> 0:38:54.040
<v Speaker 2>are already too.

0:38:54.160 --> 0:38:55.120
<v Speaker 3>No one we'll actually hear it.

0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:57.239
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So I'm going to say something, which is I've

0:38:57.280 --> 0:39:00.680
<v Speaker 2>developed a theory of crypto trying to think about how

0:39:00.680 --> 0:39:02.560
<v Speaker 2>I can say this in the least insulting way.

0:39:02.560 --> 0:39:03.759
<v Speaker 4>I'm not going to use it. I'm not going to

0:39:03.840 --> 0:39:05.000
<v Speaker 4>use any name calling.

0:39:05.080 --> 0:39:08.759
<v Speaker 2>But what I think is that trading is fun in

0:39:08.800 --> 0:39:11.879
<v Speaker 2>the sense that it's exciting to bet onlines. And I've

0:39:11.920 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 2>done that in past lives, or twenty years ago when

0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:16.080
<v Speaker 2>I was in college, I had a good time.

0:39:15.960 --> 0:39:17.000
<v Speaker 4>Made and lost some money.

0:39:17.440 --> 0:39:22.200
<v Speaker 2>I think that it's very hard, and most people intuitively

0:39:22.320 --> 0:39:25.680
<v Speaker 2>know that it's very difficult in the stock market because

0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:29.360
<v Speaker 2>there are armies of professionals looking at every piece of data,

0:39:29.440 --> 0:39:31.879
<v Speaker 2>every piece of fundamental data, every piece of factor data,

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:32.480
<v Speaker 2>every piece.

0:39:32.320 --> 0:39:33.000
<v Speaker 4>Of flow data.

0:39:33.320 --> 0:39:36.000
<v Speaker 2>There are one hundred there are multi billion dollar institutions

0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:38.080
<v Speaker 2>that have been doing this for decades. There are thousands

0:39:38.120 --> 0:39:39.719
<v Speaker 2>of books that have been done on how to do this.

0:39:40.160 --> 0:39:43.799
<v Speaker 2>I think most people intuitively know that it's difficult to

0:39:43.920 --> 0:39:49.520
<v Speaker 2>find some sort of edge in security selection. And I

0:39:49.560 --> 0:39:53.680
<v Speaker 2>think that one of the attractions of crypto is basically

0:39:53.760 --> 0:39:55.919
<v Speaker 2>a stock market for.

0:39:56.040 --> 0:39:57.680
<v Speaker 3>Oh, here you go, yeah, who.

0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:04.040
<v Speaker 2>It's an easier stock market. Yes, that it's like kind

0:40:04.040 --> 0:40:06.880
<v Speaker 2>of like stocks, except it seems a little easier because

0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:09.200
<v Speaker 2>you could say, yeah, I think that the first dog

0:40:09.280 --> 0:40:11.399
<v Speaker 2>coin on pump DoD fund will do well. I think

0:40:11.440 --> 0:40:14.840
<v Speaker 2>that people are going to be into tokenization regardless of

0:40:14.840 --> 0:40:16.280
<v Speaker 2>whether tokenization is happening.

0:40:16.320 --> 0:40:18.360
<v Speaker 3>I think that's a nice way of saying it would be.

0:40:18.440 --> 0:40:21.000
<v Speaker 3>It's a more level playing field in some way.

0:40:21.160 --> 0:40:24.680
<v Speaker 2>In some ways, I believe, and even hearing Julian described

0:40:24.719 --> 0:40:27.160
<v Speaker 2>that one nice thing potentially if you're a little bit

0:40:27.160 --> 0:40:31.440
<v Speaker 2>savvy and crypto, is understanding manipulation patterns, the ease of

0:40:31.520 --> 0:40:34.359
<v Speaker 2>identifying stop hunts. I like the way he put it

0:40:34.640 --> 0:40:37.440
<v Speaker 2>where he says, I'm trading against the twenty twenty one

0:40:37.560 --> 0:40:40.279
<v Speaker 2>version of me that left very obvious tells in the

0:40:40.360 --> 0:40:42.920
<v Speaker 2>nature of the way I traded. It feels like a

0:40:42.960 --> 0:40:46.680
<v Speaker 2>stock market where you don't need to be a super

0:40:46.800 --> 0:40:47.839
<v Speaker 2>pro sa fata win.

0:40:47.960 --> 0:40:50.960
<v Speaker 3>Here's what I think. It's all about the narratives picking

0:40:51.120 --> 0:40:53.680
<v Speaker 3>up on the next big thing that's going to drive

0:40:53.760 --> 0:40:58.120
<v Speaker 3>the price either higher or lower. And in that respect,

0:40:58.239 --> 0:41:00.600
<v Speaker 3>if you're just a person that spends a lot of

0:41:00.600 --> 0:41:03.320
<v Speaker 3>time on the internet, you might have a better handle.

0:41:03.440 --> 0:41:04.160
<v Speaker 4>That's a great point.

0:41:04.200 --> 0:41:06.320
<v Speaker 3>On those narratives, that's a great.

0:41:06.120 --> 0:41:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Point, Like if it's all about the narratives, then you know,

0:41:09.000 --> 0:41:11.400
<v Speaker 2>maybe really just being on Twitter and the discords is

0:41:11.480 --> 0:41:12.360
<v Speaker 2>actually alpha.

0:41:12.640 --> 0:41:15.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And if it's all about the narratives and the stories,

0:41:15.400 --> 0:41:17.839
<v Speaker 3>you either trade crypto or you become a VC.

0:41:18.160 --> 0:41:20.040
<v Speaker 2>I guess yeah, right, it's the same thing.

0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:21.239
<v Speaker 3>All right, shall we leave it there.

0:41:21.360 --> 0:41:22.080
<v Speaker 4>Let's leave it there.

0:41:22.400 --> 0:41:25.320
<v Speaker 3>This has been another episode of the All Loots podcast.

0:41:25.400 --> 0:41:28.320
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:41:28.480 --> 0:41:31.440
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

0:41:31.640 --> 0:41:34.839
<v Speaker 2>Follow our guest Julian Malinak. He's at Julian Malinac and

0:41:34.880 --> 0:41:37.000
<v Speaker 2>you should come into the discord and chat with Julian

0:41:37.040 --> 0:41:40.120
<v Speaker 2>because he hangs out there. Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez

0:41:40.160 --> 0:41:43.200
<v Speaker 2>at Carman ermann dash O Bennett at Dashbot, Keil Brooks

0:41:43.200 --> 0:41:45.600
<v Speaker 2>at kel Brooks. Thank you to our producer Moses on

0:41:45.760 --> 0:41:48.359
<v Speaker 2>them From more Odd Loots content, go to bloomberg dot

0:41:48.360 --> 0:41:51.040
<v Speaker 2>com slash odd Lots, where we have transcripts the blog

0:41:51.040 --> 0:41:55.560
<v Speaker 2>in a newsletter and check out that Discord, Discord, dot gg, slash, odlts.

0:41:55.360 --> 0:41:58.640
<v Speaker 3>And if you enjoy odd Lots. If you like this conversation,

0:41:58.719 --> 0:42:01.640
<v Speaker 3>then please leave us a positive review on your favorite

0:42:01.640 --> 0:42:05.440
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0:42:05.480 --> 0:42:08.600
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0:42:08.680 --> 0:42:11.160
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