1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: Tracy, there's been this big crypto run up. It's pulled 5 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: back over the last couple of weeks bitcoin got above 6 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 2: seventy thousand. We haven't really done crypto this cycle. 7 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 3: I know we did. 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 4: Meant, I have a theory for why we haven't done 9 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 4: on But what were you going to say? 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 3: You just don't want to talk about your theory. No, 11 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 3: there's a separate theory, Okay, I was gonna say. It 12 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 3: feels like a lot of stuff that's happening in this 13 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 3: cycle has happened before, and I know part of it 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 3: is the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, But I mean, 15 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 3: we have episodes on bitcoin ETFs from like years and 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,639 Speaker 3: years ago. So if we do an episode, which we're 17 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 3: doing now, I think it should be about what the 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 3: difference is in the cycle. If anything, I think it's 19 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:05,040 Speaker 3: just been boring. 20 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is like it's always 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 2: exciting when lines go up and down really fast, which 22 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: is why I am a market's journalist in the first place. 23 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: But I actually think there's almost nothing particularly interesting about 24 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 2: this cryptocycle, and in past one's like you know, there 25 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 2: released some narratives like web three and gaming to earn 26 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: and some of that stuff we did in the past, 27 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 2: or like how like uniswap works, like kind of some 28 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 2: interesting things about people, like redesigning markets or whatever. This one, 29 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 2: there's no thing there other than price and basically meme coins, 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 2: which vcs love to write thought pieces about but are 31 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: not really that interesting. 32 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 3: Joe, I think you are ignoring technological breakthrough that is 33 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 3: dogwth hat. Okay, that was not around no last cycle. 34 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: You're right, So we had doge coin and ship last cycle, 35 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: but neither of them had a hat in the last cycle, 36 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: so there have been some breakthroughs in putting cute hats 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: on the cute puppies for the coins. You're right, that 38 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 2: is progress. 39 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 3: But yeah, exactly, Okay, but we are doing a crypto 40 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 3: episode right now for the avoidance of doubt, and I 41 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 3: think the way we are coming at it is talking 42 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 3: to someone who has seen multiple crypto cycles at this point, and. 43 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 2: Also that if you accept the premise that basically the 44 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 2: only interesting thing is price and why things move around. 45 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 2: I don't want to hear from a VC. I don't 46 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 2: want to hear from someone who's doing some layer three 47 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 2: solution or some made up tokenization of a building in 48 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 2: New York City. I just want to hear from someone 49 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: who rides the ups and downs and what's that right? Like, 50 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: because if that's actually the only thing going on, which 51 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 2: I believe, then the only like true expert is not 52 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: the VC or the investor of the founder, but the 53 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: person who day to day is helping move that price 54 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 2: one direction or another. 55 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: No, I think that's absolutely true. The other thing that 56 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 3: I sometimes think about is what are crypto traders doing 57 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: on a day to day basis, Like, how do you 58 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 3: actually spend your time if you are trading crypto? What 59 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 3: does research look like? 60 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 4: Yeah? 61 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 3: And then the other thing that kind of blows my 62 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: mind is just the amount of man hours and labor 63 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 3: power that is spent on thinking about whether or not 64 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 3: line goes up on chart. 65 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: Totally. 66 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: You know, on some level that's all finance is. But 67 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,239 Speaker 2: I guess, like in traditional finance, I have some there's 68 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 2: a veneer of respect to there's a veneer, and I 69 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 2: have some intuitions about how the professionals in the space 70 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 2: make educated beds on whether the line is going up 71 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: or going to go down. And there's fundamentals and earnings 72 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: and momentum factors and all that stuff, and people different 73 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 2: try and I sort of understand what they try to do, 74 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: but I don't really know what the equivalent is in crypto. 75 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: So I think we got to learn and I think 76 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 2: we should talk to We got to talk to someone 77 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: who is in the space of like determining whether the 78 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 2: price is going up or down. 79 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 3: Let's do it. 80 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 4: So I'm really excited. 81 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: We have the perfect guest because not only has he 82 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: been a degenerate crypt trader for several years, it's the 83 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: first guest that we've had on on Lots who has 84 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: been sourced from our own Odd Lots discord, a active 85 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 2: participant in there. And I'm like, oh, this guy is 86 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: a smart guy. So why don't we like talk to 87 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 2: one of our own community members, a listener, someone who 88 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: chats with us from time to time, someone who's not 89 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 2: a VC writing big thought pieces about how the industry 90 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 2: works and the importance of memes. 91 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:24,679 Speaker 4: Someone who's just trading the coins. 92 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: Let's do it. Yeah, I'm excited, all right, I am 93 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 3: very excited. 94 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: We are welcoming to the show. Julian Malinak. In his 95 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: professional life he does healthcare tech and data stuff, and 96 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 2: then in the other half of his life he's been 97 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 2: trading crypto for a long time. Julian, thank you so 98 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 2: much for coming on. 99 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 4: Odd lots my pleasure. 100 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 2: Why don't you just start off you're a crypto trader? 101 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 4: How did that happen? 102 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 5: Yes, So, I think that my journey was somewhat typical. Right. So, 103 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 5: for most of my career, I've worked in healthcare policy 104 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 5: and technology. I was in my early thirties working in 105 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 5: tech in San Francisco. If you think of crypto, it's like, Okay, 106 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 5: I in his early thirties in San Francisco working in tech. 107 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 5: That's kind of what you think of, right, you're the 108 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 5: architect exactly. And so I had heard about it and 109 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 5: had seen some lines going up and had some extra 110 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 5: money at that time. This was twenty twenty one, early 111 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, and from an early point it was 112 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 5: about the prices, right. I was curious about the technology, 113 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 5: but it really was about, Okay, these lines are going up. 114 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 5: It seems like people are making a lot of money. 115 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 5: Why not me? Right? And I think fairly quickly kind 116 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 5: of in that first year of trading, went through the 117 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 5: tour of opportunities available to I think the typical retail participant, right, 118 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 5: So started with Bitcoin and ethereum, went down the list 119 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 5: to like kind of the mid cap coins, right so 120 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 5: the top one hundred coins that are traded on exchanges, 121 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 5: but where there's just bigger ups and downs. Went to 122 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 5: kind of the world of microcaps, so coins that maybe 123 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 5: the market cap is one hundred thousand dollars and it 124 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 5: only trades on some on chained decks, it's probably going 125 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 5: to go to zero, but it might one hundred x. 126 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 5: So I had a few of those. A lot of 127 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 5: them went to zero. I had a few that did 128 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 5: go up a ton and made some money. And then 129 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 5: I also did during those first few years some yield 130 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 5: farming rights, so basically finding some obscure D five protocols 131 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 5: were they're typically rewarding users with kind of a native 132 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 5: token to a trash co liquidity and kind of like 133 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 5: a mercenary. I would just judge the yield verse risk 134 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 5: and go where it was best. And then as the 135 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 5: market went on. Oddly, my best week in crypto was 136 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 5: actually the lunar crash, whether through luck or insight, I 137 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 5: shorted a bunch of stuff and made a ton, and 138 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 5: then I think, unsurprisingly to a lot of veteran traders, 139 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 5: I just gave up most of that money in the 140 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 5: following months, right, And I think that often those kind 141 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 5: of euphoric periods you have and being your downfall, and 142 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 5: so I took some breaks after that. Luckily I didn't 143 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 5: have a lot of money in FTX, so I was 144 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 5: kind of taking a break from the market after that 145 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 5: huge you know, making a ton in Luna and losing it. 146 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 5: And then the past year I've gotten back into it, 147 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 5: focused mainly on short to mid term trades. You know, 148 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 5: I'll be honest that the strength of this rally, I 149 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 5: think if you had asked me a year ago, I 150 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 5: wouldn't have seen it going as high as it did. 151 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 5: But it turns out that the bitcoin ETF, as you said, 152 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 5: was a pretty big deal. 153 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 4: Yeah. 154 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 5: So yeah, I've continued to trade and have been watching 155 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 5: the markets for a while now. 156 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 3: So you mentioned making money and losing money. Can you 157 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 3: talk to us a little bit more about what kind 158 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 3: of numbers we're talking about here, and beyond the Luna position, 159 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 3: what was the split like between money you made from 160 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 3: yield farming versus money just going long or short certain coins. 161 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 5: You know, I started with low six figures in crypto, 162 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 5: made I think on my best kind of small cap 163 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 5: position seven figures, and then Luna was my all time high, 164 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 5: and I could have kind of retired not with a 165 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 5: ton of money, but enough to live on for a 166 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 5: very long time, and then gave up most of that. 167 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 5: I didn't lose everything, but gave up what was seven 168 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 5: figure gains essentially, yea, okay, what's that like? 169 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: Going from having money where you're like actually could think 170 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 2: about retirement or maybe a modest retirement, to losing seven 171 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 2: It was then in that position. 172 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, it was funny because this is so fitting. So 173 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 5: I live in New York, right, and I remember in 174 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, it was like the week that I 175 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 5: started looking at these nice apartments to buy with cash 176 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 5: was the week where I wiped out forty percent of 177 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 5: my network. And I think that what happens in crypto 178 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 5: is basically it happens on both sides, right, So you're 179 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 5: early to some trend. So in my case in twenty 180 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 5: twenty two, I was early to the shorting or maybe 181 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 5: you were early to the bull market, right, And you 182 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 5: keep writing that and you grow more confident, right, and 183 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 5: you're betting bigger and bigger, and people you know who 184 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 5: are being conservative are making less money than the people 185 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 5: who are being really aggressive, right, and so you get 186 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 5: more and more aggressive, and then it violently shifts. Two 187 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 5: weeks ago, I heard a ton of stories from traders 188 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 5: I know who wiped out months and months of gains 189 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 5: in literally minutes, right. And I remember when this happened 190 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 5: to me the first time. You know, it was literally 191 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 5: months of I would like to say hard work, maybe 192 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 5: some luck wiped out in you know, an hour or two. 193 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 5: I had at the time been I think, going on 194 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 5: very little sleep. It was nauseating. It's hard to feel 195 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 5: sorry for someone who's just like gambling, right, But it 196 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 5: was kind of traumatic in the sense that it was 197 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 5: just so sudden and so fast, and I think it 198 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 5: really was pretty hard to recover from that from a 199 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 5: trading perspective, right, because you think about, oh man, I 200 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 5: really want to get back to that all time high, 201 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 5: and you're chasing that. 202 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 3: I would be upset if I lost that amount of money. 203 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 3: Everyone would be upset. 204 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, I can't even fathom it. It does seem 205 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 2: like it's like a meme. Right. People even joke like 206 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 2: when the coins are going up, they're like, Oh, I'm 207 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 2: gonna load zillow dot com right now, so you should 208 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: probably start shorting. And so it's very funny that you 209 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 2: were literally looking at apartments to buy in all cash. 210 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 5: I'm kind of disturbed by my mindset in those times, 211 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 5: and I've had two or three times like that. I 212 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 5: think the worst was in twenty twenty two, but since then, 213 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 5: I've had a few blow ups like that. You know, 214 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 5: I've had some huge wins too, but it's just it's 215 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 5: really hard after you've had a series of wins to 216 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 5: step back, right, because you just want to keep going 217 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 5: and keep going. 218 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: So you said something interesting when you got into the 219 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 3: crypto space about you were mostly interested in just making money, 220 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 3: so gambling on the price of a particular token. But 221 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 3: there are a lot of people out there who assign 222 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 3: particular values, let's say, to something like bitcoin or particular narratives, 223 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 3: maybe is a softer way of saying it. How come 224 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 3: you didn't get interested in that aspect of crypto. 225 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 5: I think when I got in, I was actually not 226 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 5: that cynical, and I thought you could do both. And 227 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 5: I remember the really cool thing about that bull run, 228 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 5: as Joe said in the intro, was like it was 229 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 5: like using uniswap for the first time. It was like, 230 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 5: this is, yeah, I'm just speculating on tokens and this 231 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 5: kind of feels disconnected from the real world. But man, 232 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 5: this is so fun. It's really cool to be a participant. 233 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 5: I thought the technology was interesting and fun, if maybe 234 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 5: there was kind of a lack of real world relevance. 235 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 5: I think since then, I've gone through cycles of being 236 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 5: more or less cynical, and I think that when it 237 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 5: comes to narratives, I kind of think of four central 238 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 5: ideas that people talk about with crypto, right, So, the 239 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 5: first one is basically the casino, which is it's about 240 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 5: the tokens. People trade the tokens. Exchanges make a lot 241 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 5: of money off people trading the tokens, and that's what 242 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 5: the space is about, and everything else is kind of 243 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 5: narrative fluff. The second narrative idea is kind of the 244 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 5: store of value. This mainly applies to bitcoin. This is 245 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 5: digital gold, and people even take it further to talk 246 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:00,439 Speaker 5: about bitcoin as kind of a reserve current andcy or 247 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 5: a monetary standard. And then the third kind of category 248 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 5: of kind of fundamental idea for lack of a better term, 249 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 5: i'd call future of finance. And there's a few sub 250 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 5: ideas here, right, So one is around being your own bank, 251 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 5: which is essentially the idea of interacting with financial products 252 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 5: without the need to trust a big bank. Right, I 253 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 5: can use ave and I'm just trusting the code. The 254 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 5: second sub idea is effectively kind of modernizing the financial system. Right, 255 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 5: so it takes what is it a day for stocks 256 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 5: to settle When I do a trade and on you know, Solana, 257 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 5: it's nearly instantaneous. And then the third thing is this 258 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 5: idea of tokenizing marketplaces. So I think Helium is kind 259 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 5: of the poster child of this. Right, I can essentially 260 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 5: bootstrap a marketplace using a token that I just create 261 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 5: out of thin air. I actually find that really interesting 262 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 5: because for my money, it's like the thing that crypto's 263 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 5: really good at is people can create tokens out of 264 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 5: thin air and people really like to speculate on them. 265 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 5: And if you can use that to do something in 266 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 5: the real world, that seems pretty interesting. And then the 267 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 5: four category I think of as Web three, and this 268 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 5: is the be your own bank idea applied to the 269 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 5: consumer Internet, you know, whether it's a social network or 270 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 5: a game, and in control of my own content. And 271 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 5: I think the odd thing about it to me is 272 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 5: it feels like people are either entirely skeptical, like it's 273 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 5: just a casino, or they're entirely on board, and it's 274 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 5: like we're creating the future of finance in the Internet. 275 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 5: And to me, I kind of have come around to 276 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 5: like it's mainly a casino, and I'm kind of interested 277 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 5: in some of these other ideas, Like I believe in 278 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 5: store of value, and I think that the idea of 279 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 5: token iszed marketplaces make a lot of sense. I think 280 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 5: Web three I'm fairly skeptical of, but I think the 281 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 5: ideas are quite a bit different. And sometimes it feels 282 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 5: like crypto's kind of just like searching for a narrative 283 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 5: that catches on among this kind of laundry list. 284 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, and some of them are contradictory too, store of 285 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 3: value versus casino lottery ticket right go up. 286 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 2: But yeah, so in the process of identifying the next trade, 287 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: people turn this around on the stock market and I 288 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: get there's plenty of just pure gambling in the stock market, 289 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 2: but also in the stock market, like there is such 290 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 2: a thing as people who make money by looking at fundamentals, 291 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 2: like deeply looking at how this company is getting real 292 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 2: user traction they're really selling a product. Like in the 293 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 2: process of identifying the next one hundred bagg er microcap winner, 294 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 2: is there alpha to be found in actually identifying a 295 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 2: connection between what the so called project is and actual 296 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 2: attraction or is it mostly sort of the reflexive war 297 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 2: trading of I am going to be long this because 298 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: I have reason to think that tomorrow someone else will 299 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 2: belong this. 300 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 5: I think that it depends on the type of trading 301 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,239 Speaker 5: you're doing and the type of thesis. In my experience 302 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 5: with kind of the microcap on chain coins, you really 303 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 5: want to have a thesis that is kind of orthogonal 304 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 5: to price. Right. There's this marketplace called pump dot fund, 305 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 5: which is like anyone can create a coin there and 306 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 5: it just gets liquidity without any cost. And there were 307 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 5: it was like a meme coin that was like the 308 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 5: first one there, right, and I don't own it anymore, 309 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 5: but it was kind of like, well, I think people 310 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 5: will get on board with this because pump dot fun 311 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 5: is getting a ton of volume, and this is like 312 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 5: a proxy to be bullish on pump dot fund. By 313 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 5: the way, I'm not chilling this coin because I don't 314 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 5: own it anymore. But that's an example of a thesis 315 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 5: that is not directly related to price. One of the 316 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 5: best trades I ever had actually was poo coin back 317 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty one, really, and that was actually a 318 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 5: very thesis driven trade, right because it was an application 319 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 5: that people used to track their kind of low cap 320 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 5: coins and it had this meme coin attached to it. 321 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 5: I think if you're just trading technicals on small caps, 322 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 5: it's a tough journey because it kind of is a 323 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 5: zero sum game and the insiders and developers have an 324 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 5: edge against you as a retail investor. So I think 325 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 5: you have to have some idea that is, you know, 326 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 5: somewhat original and is not reflected yet in price. Tracy. 327 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I noticed is like I've seen projects 328 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 2: that'll say things like we're the first dog coin that 329 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: launched on Avalanche, and it's like there's no real thing 330 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: there except people are talking about this new layer one chain. 331 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 2: So obviously you want to buy the first dog coin 332 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 2: associated with that chain. 333 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 3: It's like a newspeg, right, So you need a thing 334 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 3: to hang interest off of. But Julian, so you mentioned 335 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 3: some thesis driven trades, But talk to us a little 336 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 3: bit more about what the day to day actually looks like. 337 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 3: If you are in the crypto market, it doesn't sound 338 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 3: like it's researching the underlying technology necessarily, But are you 339 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 3: in the message boards? Are you trying to gauge upcoming 340 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 3: interest in a particular token or coin. 341 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 5: So I'll answer that by just going through the routine 342 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 5: I follow when it comes to trading. So generally I 343 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 5: try not to trade for the first half hour or 344 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 5: so after getting up, just because I don't really know 345 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 5: what's happening in the market until I've had a bit 346 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 5: of a time to digest it. I'll go in some 347 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 5: disco groups, I'll go on Twitter, I'll look at the charts, 348 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 5: and I'll often have a hypothesis about how bo the 349 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 5: week and the day will unfold. And that just helps 350 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 5: because I want to have a hypothesis that's falsifiable. So 351 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 5: I might look at the markets and say I think 352 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 5: it's sideways bullish today, right, So I kind of want 353 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 5: to look for longs and maybe some countertrend shorts, and 354 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 5: so I'll maybe have a few trade ideas, and often 355 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 5: for me, it's like I'm looking at maybe Bitcoin Ethereum, 356 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 5: maybe like a few at coins that are particularly volatile 357 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 5: that day, and basically I'll just kind of, you know, 358 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 5: look at the charts and some of the technical tools 359 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 5: that we can talk about, and I'll have a hypothesis 360 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 5: that's like, Okay, I'm I'm kind of bullish on the day, 361 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:33,879 Speaker 5: so I want to get into a long position to 362 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 5: this coin, but I kind of bet it goes back 363 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 5: to this zone. So maybe I'll set up price alert 364 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 5: right for a few coins where it's like I'm I 365 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 5: don't want to just ape in immediately to this up proNT, 366 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 5: I want to wait a bit. So maybe I've spent 367 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 5: the first hour or two kind of getting a handle 368 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 5: on what's going on in the market, is there any 369 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 5: major news, setting some kind of price alerts for areas 370 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 5: of interest for different coins, And then honestly it's kind 371 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 5: of waiting around just observing, right, And often I'll kind 372 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 5: of have a feeling of like, okay, am I understanding 373 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 5: what's happening? Right? If I think that it's a sideways 374 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 5: bullish day. Is is it playing. 375 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 4: Out like that? 376 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 5: And maybe one of my alerts goes off right, and 377 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 5: it's kind of like, Okay, this coin is kind of 378 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 5: in an area where I thought it might be interesting 379 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 5: too long, and so I'll kind of enter a position. 380 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,199 Speaker 5: And once I've entered a position, then at least for 381 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 5: like short to midterm training, it becomes a matter of 382 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 5: actively managing it. And if the thesis is I think 383 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 5: it's going to bounce around here, I want to see 384 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 5: a pretty quick reaction or I'm out of the trade. 385 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 5: Once I'm in a position, I'm kind of watching closely 386 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 5: and I don't want to necessarily overmanage. But if the 387 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 5: thesis is one about how it reacts, you know, in 388 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 5: a kind of minute to minute basis, if I'm not 389 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 5: seeing what I want to see, then I want to 390 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 5: get out of the trade immediately. So that's kind of 391 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 5: one type of way I deal with short to mid 392 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 5: turn trades. Another way I might spend a day as 393 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 5: kind of looking at different narratives. Right, So, like recently 394 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 5: some of these real world asset coins have done well, 395 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 5: So like onto Finance is one that's they're like taking 396 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 5: treasury bonds and putting them on chain, and it's kind 397 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 5: of like I was looking into that a while. It 398 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 5: was like, I just think people are going to get 399 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 5: really excited about anything that relates to the real world 400 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 5: because so much of this space is so abstract, and 401 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 5: so you know, Onto's one, but are there other coins 402 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 5: that are in this real world asset space? So I'll 403 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 5: kind of look on Twitter and maybe Massari, which is 404 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 5: kind of a good research service that puts together different articles, 405 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 5: and I'll kind of get us and say, Okay, here's 406 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 5: like five coins in this rural asset space that maybe 407 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 5: I want to get into long positions on. And then 408 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 5: I'll look at the chart and say, okay, maybe I'll 409 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 5: enter now, maybe I'll wait a bit. But really a 410 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 5: lot of it is just about I have a hypothesis 411 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,640 Speaker 5: about how price will react, or I'm looking to get 412 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 5: into a position, and then I'm just waiting until that happens. 413 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 5: For me, when I think about the times I've made 414 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 5: money and the times i haven't, some of it is luxure, 415 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 5: but there's this emotional state when I'm doing well of 416 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 5: almost a kind of bored curiosity. It's like the opposite 417 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 5: of fomo, right, So I just want to be sitting 418 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 5: around I maybe watching the price action, and it's really 419 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 5: boring because I'm just waiting to see something clear, and 420 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 5: you know, most of the time of the market you 421 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 5: just don't want to be entering. So that's kind of 422 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 5: a typical day, and it's it's not that exciting. I 423 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 5: think if it's done well. 424 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,400 Speaker 4: I find it actually very interesting. 425 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,800 Speaker 2: They say, like professional poker players, which seems like it 426 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,479 Speaker 2: be fun. If you're doing it well, it should be boring, 427 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: and that actually it's this miserable existence of spending twelve 428 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 2: hours in the day and mostly folding your hands and 429 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 2: mostly letting cards go by, and then waiting for opportunities. 430 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 2: Poker well played in a cash game in a casino 431 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 2: is not fun. Something I'm curious about. You know, with 432 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 2: the launch of the Bitcoin ETF for the first time, 433 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 2: there is a segment of traders that is on New 434 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: York time, specifically bitcoin and crypto has always been twenty 435 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: four to seven, but now there is this segment of 436 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: trading that happens between nine thirty am Eastern and four 437 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 2: pm Eastern, maybe some after hour stuff. 438 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 4: I don't know. 439 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit about time zones and 440 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 2: the different flavors of the market between when New York 441 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 2: is up versus Asian hours versus maybe I don't know 442 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 2: if European Hour is inflected so much. 443 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good question. And it's funny because some 444 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 5: of the better short term traders I know, we'll talk 445 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 5: in great detail about the different zones, and it's like, 446 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 5: this is the London kill zone from these two hours. 447 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 5: I'm just like, can we just knock get so feis? 448 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 5: But I do think the markets offer some differences, right, So, 449 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 5: I think the New York hours tend to be, at 450 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 5: least for what I do, a little bit better. There's 451 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 5: a little bit more liquidity that the wics tend to 452 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 5: be a little bit less involved overnight for me as 453 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 5: someone who lives in New York, like the Asian hours 454 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 5: there just tends to be a little bit more scammingists 455 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 5: by scamming us something like weird kind of wis and stuff, 456 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 5: and it feels like liquidity is often lower. It's funny 457 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 5: because I sometimes like to trade these kind of long 458 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 5: tail alt coins and sometimes you just see like really 459 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 5: wacky things happen at strange hours, right, So it's like 460 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 5: here's a project that is like founded by you know, 461 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 5: an American team and backed by American investors, but for 462 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 5: some reason, there's just a ton of interest in this 463 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 5: project at three am on a Friday night, and it's like, 464 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 5: I wonder what that is. You know, it's manipulation, right, 465 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 5: but I think sometimes you see some really interesting manipulations 466 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 5: in the Asian hours, right where there's not the big 467 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 5: kind of New York liquidity, and that can be fun 468 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 5: to trade. I think that as someone who you know 469 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 5: sometimes likes to short things, I've definitely been tapped out 470 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 5: a few times because I've gone a bit too early 471 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 5: on some of those scamming up trends in. 472 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 3: Terms of being tapped out. This is the other thing 473 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 3: I was wondering, But what sort of risk management goes 474 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 3: into positions here? And how are you keeping track of them? 475 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 3: Because I imagine you're probably using a wallet, maybe multiple wallets, 476 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 3: maybe different platforms. How are you sort of netting out 477 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 3: those positions and managing that risk. 478 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 5: I think now I try not to do many trades 479 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 5: at once, and again, it's very easy to sound wise 480 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 5: about risk management, and it's much harder to follow my 481 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 5: own advice. But what I try to do is especially 482 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 5: with these kind of either a short term trade or 483 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 5: a counter trend trade. Typically I want to see reaction immediately. 484 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 5: As a rule for myself, I have to have a 485 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 5: stop loss. Right. In other words, if I'm longing a 486 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 5: coin that just dropped thirty percent, I'm gonna have a 487 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 5: stop where if it goes below a certain price, I 488 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 5: exit the trade. But really I want to exit the 489 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 5: trade immediately if it's not reacting the way I want 490 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 5: it to before it hits my stop loss. So I 491 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 5: think for me, the best risk management is, yeah, you 492 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 5: have a stop loss. I don't want my account to 493 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 5: be liquidated like used to happen to me, But I 494 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 5: really just want to cut immediately if it's not going 495 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 5: in my direction, and particularly on a trade that's like 496 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 5: I'm shorting a coin that just went up fifty percent 497 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 5: or I'm long end coin that went down a lot, Right, 498 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 5: you just have to be really decisive in terms of 499 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 5: trade management. There's various tools out there. I just crack 500 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 5: it in an Excel sheet that steers, you know, the trade, 501 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 5: here's the idea behind it, Here's how much I made 502 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 5: or lost. I think it's a little bit different for 503 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,479 Speaker 5: longer term positions where it's I'm just gonna buy some 504 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 5: of this spot coin and try to hold it for 505 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 5: a few months and see what happens. I still treat 506 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 5: that as a trade, but it's a little bit less. 507 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 5: Maybe I don't have a stop loss because it's just 508 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 5: a spot position. 509 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 2: So you mentioned as part of your research or news 510 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 2: consumption gathering, like going into various discords, and one of 511 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 2: the things that strikes me about crypto is like a 512 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 2: everyone is highly aware of the existence of manipulation. B 513 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 2: You sometimes hear people talk very overtly about being part 514 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,880 Speaker 2: of a pump, and sometimes I'll get, you know, it's 515 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 2: like this is a group and like, you know, sort 516 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,439 Speaker 2: of work together to like build hype for the coin, 517 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,919 Speaker 2: and I get the impression, though maybe I'm wrong, that 518 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 2: people are searching for the inner sanctum, finding that one 519 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 2: telegram group where there really is like people can move 520 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 2: a market, or the one discord whether there's real alpha. 521 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: Can you talk about like the process of identifying where 522 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 2: good chat happens. 523 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 5: I've been in a lot of different discord groups, and 524 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,359 Speaker 5: some of them are like people giving trade setups, and 525 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 5: it's always that's interesting how you can have two traders 526 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 5: trading the same trade setup with dramatically different results because 527 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 5: of how they execute and manage their trades. The best 528 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 5: groups I'm in, I'm not in that many now are 529 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 5: just a relatively small amount of people basically talking. It's 530 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 5: people sharing ideas. Maybe there's someone who's quite good and 531 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 5: they're giving some setups. It's not just like here's a 532 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 5: trader giving a trade setup, right. I think those rarely work. 533 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 5: And there's even kind of memes like the Kramer etf 534 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 5: the reverse. There's even things of like, here's this crypto 535 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 5: influencer who's always wrong and we should fade them. Right. 536 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 5: I think you're right that there is this notion of Okay, 537 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 5: a lot of these pump and dump groups you don't 538 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 5: want to be in because by the time they're shilling 539 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 5: it to their followers, the pump has already happened and 540 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 5: they're going to dump on the followers. Right. I have 541 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 5: not found a lot of people that have successfully found 542 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 5: the inner groups, right. I think the better move is 543 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 5: to just try to identify the pumps somewhat early. And 544 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 5: I think the bull market, like a few months ago, 545 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 5: this was particularly good at this right, So like there 546 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 5: was this coin Tia, which is like a modular blockchain token. 547 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 5: You know, maybe it's you know, revolutionary technology, but the 548 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 5: important thing is like it was kind of a hot 549 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,399 Speaker 5: narrative and a new token, and it was just going up, 550 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 5: and I knew a lot of people who got in early, 551 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 5: and it was kind of just like, I just think 552 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 5: that through manipulation and through a lot of fomo, this 553 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 5: thing is going to go a lot higher. And it did. 554 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 5: And so I don't think you need to be part 555 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 5: of a pump and dumb group. I think if you 556 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 5: are an alert trader, you kind of identify some of 557 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 5: these opportunities. I do think it's becoming a bit harder 558 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 5: kind of the past week or two since the market 559 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 5: has been a little more choppy and a bit down. 560 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 3: Obviously, you've been trading crypto, and we've been very focused 561 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 3: on that in this conversation, but have you ever been 562 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 3: tempted by more well, I don't even want to say 563 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 3: traditional assets, but something like zero day or one day 564 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 3: options on equities, because you could potentially get the same 565 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 3: satisfaction of seeing the line go up up in a 566 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 3: relatively short amount of time. 567 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 5: I've thought about it. I think that I would like 568 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 5: to think that I'm not just purely gambling, even though 569 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 5: I think that a lot of what we're doing in 570 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 5: crypto is effectively gambling when I think about crypto, and 571 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,880 Speaker 5: I think that's a fair question, like why trade crypto 572 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,280 Speaker 5: versus another market? 573 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 4: Right? 574 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 5: I think one answer is because you think it's an 575 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 5: important technology and you want to invest in the future. 576 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,199 Speaker 5: And I would love to believe that more than I do, 577 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 5: And I do believe that for a few things like 578 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 5: bitcoin and maybe a few specific coins. But I think 579 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,880 Speaker 5: the reasons are more of like the trader reasons, right, 580 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,720 Speaker 5: So I think that the manipulations in crypto are just 581 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,439 Speaker 5: more apparent than in other markets. So one thing you 582 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 5: often see is like stop punts. For example, right, say 583 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 5: there's a coin that's like gone down, it's gone between 584 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 5: twelve and fifteen dollars, You'll often see this quick wick 585 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 5: below twelve dollars, and then it'll pump to like twenty dollars, right, 586 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 5: And what's happening there, And again, it's not that simple 587 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 5: to trade this, But what's happening is like there's a 588 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 5: bunch of long positions with their stops below that kind 589 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 5: of recent low of twelve dollars. So what the kind 590 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 5: of market is going to do is it's gonna manipulate 591 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 5: the price below that. It's gonna tap all those people 592 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 5: out and maybe liquidate some positions, and then often it'll reverse. 593 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 5: And I remember when I started trading futures, I kept 594 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 5: losing money because I would place these obvious stop losses 595 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 5: and they would get hunted. And so one thing that 596 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,360 Speaker 5: I think I'm doing when I'm trading well is I'm 597 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 5: almost countertrading myself, right, I'm countertrading who I was when 598 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 5: I started trading futures, which was like, I'm just going 599 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 5: to place this obvious stop because if it goes there, 600 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 5: it's probably gonna go a lot lower. And so I 601 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 5: just think those opportunities are not quite as good in 602 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 5: traditional markets. That said, they're not easy in crypto, it's 603 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 5: just that I think that it's a little bit less efficient. 604 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 5: And by the way, I'm not sure how long crypto 605 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 5: will stay that way, right, I could see a world 606 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 5: where in five ten years it's just been captured a 607 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 5: bit more. 608 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it does seem what you say makes total sense 609 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 2: that various sort of quasi manipulations are more obvious it's 610 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: clearly a less liquid, even Bitcoin a less liquid, less efficient, 611 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 2: wider spreads than legacy markets. 612 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think they're all double edged swords, right, So, like, yes, 613 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 5: they're manipulated and inefficient, but I've been on the wrong 614 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 5: side of predatory manipulation before, and like, I don't blame 615 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 5: anyone but myself, I kind of wish that I had 616 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 5: of you that it was really bad, right, because I 617 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 5: feel like for the stock market, I think that kind 618 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 5: of blatant manipulation and pump and dumping is kind of 619 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 5: a bad thing. And I wish that my view of 620 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 5: crypto was like, this is a really serious space where 621 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 5: we're creating really important stuff. And I would love to 622 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 5: think that in a few years, right, And I'd love 623 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 5: to kind of see more projects where I take it 624 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 5: seriously and think that manipulation is bad. But I think 625 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 5: for now it's like that's more of a feature than 626 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 5: a bug as a trader, right, Yeah. 627 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 4: Yeah. 628 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,719 Speaker 3: Can I ask a slightly personal question going back to 629 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 3: this idea of you being in some ways the archetypal 630 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 3: crypto trader, Why is it all guys? That's obviously a 631 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 3: massive generalization. I'm sure there are some women out there 632 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 3: trading crypto, but it does overwhelmingly seem to be men. 633 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 3: Because the other thing I would say is when we 634 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 3: go back to the narratives and this idea of like 635 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 3: we're building a fairer financial system, it always struck me 636 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 3: as crazy that we're going to build a fairer financial 637 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 3: system with bitcoin or whatever and half the population is 638 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 3: basically being left out of it. 639 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's definitely overwhelmingly young men. I meet people 640 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 5: who are in their teams up to like early forties. Right. 641 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 5: It's fairly global, and as you said, there are some women, 642 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 5: but very few particularly, I think in the kind of 643 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 5: trading world, you know. And I'd kind of be curious 644 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 5: on how to compare to other forms of speculation, like 645 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 5: among the population of people who are doing zero day options. 646 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 5: I bet that skews male as well, although probably not 647 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 5: nearly as much as crypto. I think that part of 648 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 5: it is the culture, right, So there's definitely this vibe 649 00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,320 Speaker 5: among a lot of traders, mostly young men. And I 650 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 5: don't really believe this, but it's kind of like this 651 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 5: is your last chance to get rich before the fall 652 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,239 Speaker 5: of Western civilization, rightting, And I don't believe that, but 653 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 5: like that's kind of the feeling and like it kind 654 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 5: of is adjacent to kind of the hustle culture, right, 655 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 5: and the kind of like be a man and you know, 656 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 5: hustle and make your own way. And I think that's 657 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 5: definitely part of the culture of crypto. I think that 658 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 5: there is kind of this human capital component that like 659 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 5: when I think of my career, like not to toot 660 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 5: my own horn, but I feel like I've been pretty 661 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 5: good at the jobs I've done, and you know, I've 662 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 5: spent a fair amount of time trading now, and I'm 663 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 5: kind of like, is it Is it a great thing 664 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,640 Speaker 5: that a lot of guys like me are spending all 665 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 5: this time gambling. I don't know if it's awesome for society, right. 666 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 5: I feel like I can say that because it's being 667 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 5: hard on myself more than anyone else, right. But I 668 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 5: think that's a kind of another thing about crypto, which 669 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 5: is I think one way to think about it is 670 00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 5: like there's a supply and demand for gambling and speculation, right, 671 00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 5: and so when I walk around New York and see 672 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 5: the sports betting ads, right, it's kind of like, oh, 673 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 5: this is kind of meaningful competition, right, where we're talking 674 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 5: about kind of the demand among mostly young men for 675 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 5: you know, speculation, and yeah, what are the options we 676 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 5: have crypto, you have sports betting, you have things like 677 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 5: zero day options and meme stocks. With that said, I 678 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 5: really hope that I'm not super optimistic, but I would 679 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 5: love for in five years to be like, Wow, this 680 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 5: market created all this useful stuff and it's more like 681 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 5: the stock market. And yeah there's speculation, but it relates 682 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 5: to these things in the real world in a more 683 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 5: tangible way. But right now it does feel like it's 684 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 5: mostly guys, you know, speculating. 685 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like that to your point, like that's 686 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: sort of like and probably the fight club philosophy of 687 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 2: if you don't make a fortune now before you're like 688 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 2: twenty five, you're gonna be doing a nine to five 689 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 2: off his job until you're sixty five and then they'll 690 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 2: give you a watch and then. And it feels like 691 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 2: that message just gets hammered home over and over again 692 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 2: that if you don't score the big bag soon, you're 693 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 2: going to live a life of basically working for the 694 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 2: man in some miserable existence under terrible fluorescent lighting for 695 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 2: the rest of your life. 696 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 4: It seems like. 697 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 2: That, so I want to you know, I like talking 698 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: to you because you're frank about the fact that you 699 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 2: like trading it, but that may be your aspirations for 700 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 2: the technology may not materialize. 701 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 4: I feel like. 702 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:41,880 Speaker 2: One of my frustrations when I talk to people who 703 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 2: are professionals in the space, particularly operators or vcs, not 704 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: necessarily traders, like I feel like I'm frequently being gas 705 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 2: lit in the sense that they'll tell me something about 706 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 2: some extraordinary thing that they're doing that's important technologically. In 707 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 2: my sense is that it roots their you and that 708 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,520 Speaker 2: it really they're like, they're just in it for the gamble, 709 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 2: And I'm curious in your interactions with various people parts 710 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,399 Speaker 2: of the ecosystem. Is this just me being like sort 711 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,479 Speaker 2: of like super cynical and I should be more open, 712 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,840 Speaker 2: or do you also observe this gap between like you, 713 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,839 Speaker 2: we're like building this really important thing for tokenizing real 714 00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 2: world assets and bridging them across chains. 715 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 4: Et cetera, but that at heart it's about the line. 716 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,879 Speaker 5: So I think that in my experience, I've talked with 717 00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 5: a lot of both venture investors and founders, and over 718 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,399 Speaker 5: the past year I've kind of was curious about whether 719 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 5: there was something useful I could do with crypto, and 720 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 5: was kind of have been working on and off on 721 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 5: this idea of like, you know, I've worked in health 722 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 5: data and it's like, okay, I like the idea of 723 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 5: tokenized marketplaces. Is there a way to kind of incent 724 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 5: people to contribute their health data using a token, right, 725 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:51,879 Speaker 5: And it's kind of just like, well, you can create 726 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 5: a token out of thin air, and that's a better 727 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 5: cost of capital. So there are some interesting ideas here. 728 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 5: And I've talked with a lot of vcs and founders 729 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 5: and kind of try to suss out this question, as 730 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 5: you mentioned, of like do people really believe in this 731 00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,399 Speaker 5: stuff or are they just like me, Like maybe they 732 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,400 Speaker 5: believe in a few things, but mostly they're just trading 733 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 5: the narratives. And I've come around to the fact that 734 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 5: I think most people actually, yeah, maybe they're trading and 735 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,560 Speaker 5: pumping and dumping a little bit, but they do believe 736 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,359 Speaker 5: in the technology. And I say that just because it's 737 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 5: just hard to work on this stuff. And I think 738 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 5: it's hard to raise funds from like LPs if you 739 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,240 Speaker 5: don't have some conviction that we're actually changing the world. 740 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,719 Speaker 5: And I don't want to say that everyone's just you know, 741 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 5: it's all motivated reasoning, right, But I think that for 742 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 5: better or for worse, that's what a lot of folks believe. 743 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 5: That the stuff really is going to be revolutionary and 744 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 5: that the infrastructure we're creating will really have an impact. 745 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 5: I'm skeptical of most of it, but I hope I'm wrong, right, 746 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 5: And maybe I am, but I think that your instinct 747 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 5: to be skeptical is correct. But I would just say 748 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 5: I kind of want to take people out their word, 749 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,279 Speaker 5: you know, and if people are really saying that they 750 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 5: think this is going to be this revolutionary technology, like, 751 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,760 Speaker 5: I think it's worth arguing kind of on the merits 752 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 5: of that. 753 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 3: I have just one more question, which is, if you 754 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 3: made seven figures again, would you stop trading crypto and retire? 755 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 5: So I've done fine recently, I've you know, made some money. 756 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,000 Speaker 5: I think that what I would do if I were 757 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,279 Speaker 5: to get back to kind of I don't even want 758 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 5: to say my prior all time high, which was quite 759 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:28,359 Speaker 5: a bit. I've tried to just let go of that 760 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 5: line of thinking altogether, actually, because I think a lot 761 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 5: of the problem I ran into was basically having this 762 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 5: notion of making it back, and so for me, I've 763 00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 5: tried to get rid of any notion of making a 764 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 5: certain amount and just more focusing on the discipline of trading. 765 00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 5: I do think that, you know, and it goes back 766 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 5: to the human capital part of this. I don't want 767 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 5: to look back and be like, oh, I just traded 768 00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 5: for years and years on end, because when I look 769 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,279 Speaker 5: at my career, I think the other stuff I've done 770 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,720 Speaker 5: is probably you know, more valuable, and I think maybe 771 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 5: there's like some way I can bring crypto into the 772 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 5: other part of my career. Yeah, I don't want to 773 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 5: be trading for like decades and decades, but the notion 774 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:06,760 Speaker 5: of getting back to a certain number and then quitting, 775 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 5: I don't even want to think about that because that 776 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 5: that got me into a lot of trouble. 777 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:15,239 Speaker 2: Just get back there, then sell half. Julian Melanach, so 778 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,280 Speaker 2: great to have you on. Great to have our first 779 00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 2: discord derived guest. People should come into the discord and 780 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 2: chat with Julian, and great to have a sort of 781 00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 2: very fresh, honest, nuanced take on crypto, which is sort 782 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:27,799 Speaker 2: of rare. 783 00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:43,760 Speaker 4: So really appreciate you coming on off on. Thanks so much, Tracy. 784 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 2: I really enjoyed that conversation. It was super interesting. I 785 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:51,239 Speaker 2: appreciated that he was like kind of cynical, like I 786 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 2: am totally cynical, and seemed fairly honest about like where 787 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,879 Speaker 2: his own like sort of marking to market his sort 788 00:37:58,920 --> 00:37:59,959 Speaker 2: of thoughts in real time. 789 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was also interesting to hear. I'm not sure 790 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 3: I want to say due diligence, but the trading process 791 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,040 Speaker 3: on a day to day basis, and I think, like 792 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 3: many things, it's not one extreme or the other. It's 793 00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 3: not just throwing darts at a board of tokens, but 794 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 3: it's also not developing fundamental theories of technology and the 795 00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,280 Speaker 3: future all the time. It's sort of somewhere in the middle. 796 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,840 Speaker 3: And then again the importance of narratives, which I think 797 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 3: we got into it, but especially when it comes to bitcoin. 798 00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 3: One of the strengths of bitcoin at this point has 799 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 3: to be its ability to contain multitudes of narratives, often 800 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:40,239 Speaker 3: conflicting ones as I mentioned, and just jumping from thing 801 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:44,720 Speaker 3: to thing, like disintermediating the entire financial system, but also 802 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,239 Speaker 3: boosting profit margins for Black Rock. 803 00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm going to say something that I'm 804 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 2: purposely leaving to the end. So hopefully maybe some people 805 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 2: are already too. 806 00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 3: No one we'll actually hear it. 807 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,239 Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm going to say something, which is I've 808 00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,680 Speaker 2: developed a theory of crypto trying to think about how 809 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 2: I can say this in the least insulting way. 810 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 4: I'm not going to use it. I'm not going to 811 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 4: use any name calling. 812 00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,759 Speaker 2: But what I think is that trading is fun in 813 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,879 Speaker 2: the sense that it's exciting to bet onlines. And I've 814 00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 2: done that in past lives, or twenty years ago when 815 00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 2: I was in college, I had a good time. 816 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,000 Speaker 4: Made and lost some money. 817 00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:22,200 Speaker 2: I think that it's very hard, and most people intuitively 818 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,680 Speaker 2: know that it's very difficult in the stock market because 819 00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,360 Speaker 2: there are armies of professionals looking at every piece of data, 820 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,879 Speaker 2: every piece of fundamental data, every piece of factor data, 821 00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:32,480 Speaker 2: every piece. 822 00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:33,000 Speaker 4: Of flow data. 823 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,000 Speaker 2: There are one hundred there are multi billion dollar institutions 824 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 2: that have been doing this for decades. There are thousands 825 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:39,719 Speaker 2: of books that have been done on how to do this. 826 00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 2: I think most people intuitively know that it's difficult to 827 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:49,520 Speaker 2: find some sort of edge in security selection. And I 828 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,680 Speaker 2: think that one of the attractions of crypto is basically 829 00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:55,919 Speaker 2: a stock market for. 830 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,680 Speaker 3: Oh, here you go, yeah, who. 831 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,040 Speaker 2: It's an easier stock market. Yes, that it's like kind 832 00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,880 Speaker 2: of like stocks, except it seems a little easier because 833 00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,200 Speaker 2: you could say, yeah, I think that the first dog 834 00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,399 Speaker 2: coin on pump DoD fund will do well. I think 835 00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,840 Speaker 2: that people are going to be into tokenization regardless of 836 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:16,280 Speaker 2: whether tokenization is happening. 837 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,360 Speaker 3: I think that's a nice way of saying it would be. 838 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,000 Speaker 3: It's a more level playing field in some way. 839 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 2: In some ways, I believe, and even hearing Julian described 840 00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,160 Speaker 2: that one nice thing potentially if you're a little bit 841 00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,440 Speaker 2: savvy and crypto, is understanding manipulation patterns, the ease of 842 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,359 Speaker 2: identifying stop hunts. I like the way he put it 843 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,440 Speaker 2: where he says, I'm trading against the twenty twenty one 844 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,279 Speaker 2: version of me that left very obvious tells in the 845 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 2: nature of the way I traded. It feels like a 846 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 2: stock market where you don't need to be a super 847 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:47,839 Speaker 2: pro sa fata win. 848 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 3: Here's what I think. It's all about the narratives picking 849 00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,680 Speaker 3: up on the next big thing that's going to drive 850 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 3: the price either higher or lower. And in that respect, 851 00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,600 Speaker 3: if you're just a person that spends a lot of 852 00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,320 Speaker 3: time on the internet, you might have a better handle. 853 00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:04,160 Speaker 4: That's a great point. 854 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,320 Speaker 3: On those narratives, that's a great. 855 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,840 Speaker 2: Point, Like if it's all about the narratives, then you know, 856 00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,400 Speaker 2: maybe really just being on Twitter and the discords is 857 00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:12,360 Speaker 2: actually alpha. 858 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,360 Speaker 3: Yeah. And if it's all about the narratives and the stories, 859 00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:17,839 Speaker 3: you either trade crypto or you become a VC. 860 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,040 Speaker 2: I guess yeah, right, it's the same thing. 861 00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:21,239 Speaker 3: All right, shall we leave it there. 862 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:22,080 Speaker 4: Let's leave it there. 863 00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,320 Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the All Loots podcast. 864 00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,320 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 865 00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,440 Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 866 00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,839 Speaker 2: Follow our guest Julian Malinak. He's at Julian Malinac and 867 00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,000 Speaker 2: you should come into the discord and chat with Julian 868 00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,120 Speaker 2: because he hangs out there. Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez 869 00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,200 Speaker 2: at Carman ermann dash O Bennett at Dashbot, Keil Brooks 870 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,600 Speaker 2: at kel Brooks. Thank you to our producer Moses on 871 00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,359 Speaker 2: them From more Odd Loots content, go to bloomberg dot 872 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,040 Speaker 2: com slash odd Lots, where we have transcripts the blog 873 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:55,560 Speaker 2: in a newsletter and check out that Discord, Discord, dot gg, slash, odlts. 874 00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,640 Speaker 3: And if you enjoy odd Lots. If you like this conversation, 875 00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 3: then please leave us a positive review on your favorite 876 00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:05,440 Speaker 3: podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, 877 00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,600 Speaker 3: you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. 878 00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,160 Speaker 3: All you need to do is connect your Bloomberg subscription 879 00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:20,440 Speaker 3: with Apple Podcasts. Thanks for listening.