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Speaker 1: Hoops Tonight, presented by fan Duel here at the volume
Speaker 1: Happy Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys had
Speaker 1: a great week and that you have big plans for
Speaker 1: the weekend. By the time you're actually listening to this,
Speaker 1: I will probably be at the place I'm staying in
Speaker 1: Mexico getting pounded with rain by the hurricane that is
Speaker 1: moving up the Mexico coast. That should be interesting. Hopefully,
Speaker 1: wherever I am at this exact moment in time, things
Speaker 1: are going well. We're continuing with our power rankings today
Speaker 1: with number twelve, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Um, you guys of
Speaker 1: the drill before we get started, subscribe to the volume's
Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
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Speaker 1: don't miss any show announcements, and less but not least,
Speaker 1: if you can't get back to YouTube to finish one
Speaker 1: of these shows, you can always find them wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcast under Hoops tonight. So fair warning to
Speaker 1: Cavs fans. We did just spend about twenty minutes on
Speaker 1: the Cavs last week after the Donovan Mitchell trade, So
Speaker 1: this one will be a little bit shorter and in
Speaker 1: less detail than the one we just did last week,
Speaker 1: just because we've already hit on a lot of these
Speaker 1: specific bases. So last year they were twenty in offense,
Speaker 1: fifth in defense. Despite the injuries that they dealt with, UH,
Speaker 1: they had a one oh three point seven defensive rating.
Speaker 1: With both Evan Mobiley and Jared Allen on the floor together,
Speaker 1: things ended with them blowing a double digit halftime lead
Speaker 1: against Atlanta in the play in game. UM super eventful offseason.
Speaker 1: They signed role On Nett though and Robin Lopez. They
Speaker 1: should be getting Ricky Rubio back, and they traded their
Speaker 1: lottery pick as well as uh Lori marken In and
Speaker 1: Colin Sexton to the Utah Jazz for Donovan Mitchell in
Speaker 1: addition to three first round draft picks as well as
Speaker 1: to swaps. You'll notice that I have the Calves in
Speaker 1: my Puncher's Chance contender tier. That is how much respect
Speaker 1: I have for what Donovan Mitchell can do with the
Speaker 1: basketball in conjunction with Darius Garland, and how good I
Speaker 1: expect this defense to be if you have a top
Speaker 1: five defense, which I believe the Calves will have if
Speaker 1: they are healthy. If they have that, in addition to
Speaker 1: a hot Donovan Mitchell in a playoff series, they are
Speaker 1: capable of beating anybody. Will they be favored in series
Speaker 1: against the Warriors or the or the Boston Celtics or
Speaker 1: the Miami Heat or the l A Clippers. No, they
Speaker 1: won't be favored in a series like that, but they
Speaker 1: certainly will have a puncher's chance to beat them. That's
Speaker 1: why I have them in the contender tier. So if
Speaker 1: you look at their depth chart as of right now,
Speaker 1: at the guard position, they have Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland,
Speaker 1: Harris Laverte who may or may not end up getting
Speaker 1: traded when this is all said and done, and Ricky Rubio.
Speaker 1: On the wing, they have Chetty Osmond, um Isaac Cora,
Speaker 1: Dylan Windler, and Lamar Stevens. And then the bigs they're
Speaker 1: going with Jared Allen, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love who once
Speaker 1: again may or may not be traded before the end
Speaker 1: of the season, and Robin Lopez. Pretty deep. The only
Speaker 1: position that gets a little tricky there is the wing.
Speaker 1: I like Chetty Osman a lot, he just is gonna
Speaker 1: be physically overwhelmed by certain matchups. And Isaaca Cora and
Speaker 1: Lamar Stevens they're they're both really interesting athletes at the position,
Speaker 1: but they're both a little bit on the short side,
Speaker 1: which scares me for specific matchups, especially if they run
Speaker 1: into some of the bigger, stronger wings around the league.
Speaker 1: Um The interesting thing is gonna be what they end
Speaker 1: up deciding to do with Laverte, because even though he's
Speaker 1: not really of a ton of value to this particular
Speaker 1: Calves team, he does bring a specific skill set that
Speaker 1: somebody around the league is going to be interested in.
Speaker 1: So looking at the offensive end of the floor, this
Speaker 1: is gonna be a pick and roll team. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be pick and roll with some more pick and roll,
Speaker 1: and then even after that more pick and roll. Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell last year averaged one point zero three points per
Speaker 1: possession on pick and rolls, which was best in the
Speaker 1: league among players who ran at least five hundred of them.
Speaker 1: Darius Garland wasn't quite as good. He was at zero
Speaker 1: point nine points per possession. The one thing I wanted
Speaker 1: to to cut him some slack there is, especially after
Speaker 1: the Collin Sexton injury, he basically became the only legitimate
Speaker 1: shot creator on the team. That's just a lot to
Speaker 1: ask for any player to deal with. We talk a
Speaker 1: lot about repetition in how if you don't have diversity
Speaker 1: and attack not just within your individual skill set, but
Speaker 1: also within your other teammates on the roster and what
Speaker 1: they bring to the table. If you don't have diversity
Speaker 1: of attack, you become easier to defend because if I
Speaker 1: can look you in the eye and see the same
Speaker 1: thing over and over and over again, sixties seventy possessions
Speaker 1: in a game, I'm gonna start to get a little
Speaker 1: bit more used to what your tendencies are going one
Speaker 1: way or another, and with that will make me give
Speaker 1: me an advantage in trying to defend you. So I
Speaker 1: do expect Darius Garland's pick and roll point per possession
Speaker 1: to go significantly up the season now that he's splitting
Speaker 1: those duties with Darius Garland. And look at the role men.
Speaker 1: Obviously we know what Jared Allen is. We talked about
Speaker 1: him a little bit last week. Jared Allen is a
Speaker 1: vertical spacer, but he also can do what Rudy Gobert
Speaker 1: cannot do, which is, if the pick and roll results
Speaker 1: in a switch for whatever reason, he can run in
Speaker 1: and get a deep seal underneath the basket and make
Speaker 1: a short hook shot over his left show, which is
Speaker 1: something that you know, not many bigs around the league
Speaker 1: can do and as part of why Jared Allen is
Speaker 1: an all star level big. And then Evan Mobley is
Speaker 1: in a phase of his career, especially as a big man,
Speaker 1: that should be taking significant leaps as a player in
Speaker 1: each successive season. And I expect Evan Mobley to be
Speaker 1: a much better player this season, and that inherently will
Speaker 1: make things easier for Darius Garland when he runs screening
Speaker 1: actions with him. Last year, the only other significant type
Speaker 1: of offense that they ran is post up um. They
Speaker 1: were fifth in total post ups last year. Tenth inefficiency
Speaker 1: um Evan Mobley was. This is insane. Evan Mobley a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one post ups last year, so roughly
Speaker 1: twice a game. Zero point nine seven points per possession.
Speaker 1: Doesn't seem like much, but that's pretty solid. That's about
Speaker 1: as efficient as Jonas Valanciunas is in the post so
Speaker 1: as a rookie, as thin and wiry and raw as
Speaker 1: he was, he was every bit as efficient and post
Speaker 1: ups as Jona's Valanciunas, who is has been a post
Speaker 1: up big in this league for a long time. He's
Speaker 1: just gonna be so insanely good it's not even funny.
Speaker 1: Jared Allen one point zero six points per possession on
Speaker 1: post ups, A little bit lower volume, A hundred and
Speaker 1: seven total during the year, primarily doing it against switches
Speaker 1: and pick and roll. But that's pretty damn efficient, Kevin Love,
Speaker 1: not great, hundred fifty post ups for zero point eight
Speaker 1: nine points per possession. I brought back nightmares to when obviously,
Speaker 1: you guys know, I'm a big Lebron James fan, and
Speaker 1: I was watching Lebron James with Kevin Love and the
Speaker 1: Cavaliers back, you know, half decade ago. It just Kevin
Speaker 1: Love post ups just never seemed to work out. The
Speaker 1: one team that they consistently worked against was like the
Speaker 1: Toronto Raptors. As as the Calves would consistently destroy the
Speaker 1: Raptors in the playoffs, it was Kevin Love who would
Speaker 1: have have his way with them and post ups. But
Speaker 1: you know, my my guess is that their offense is
Speaker 1: going to be a heavy diet of your turn, My
Speaker 1: turn type of pick and roll attack between Darius Garland
Speaker 1: and Donovan Mitchell, and then those pick and rolls specifically
Speaker 1: to result in switches in certain situations, and then them
Speaker 1: to attack them in those switches by going to the post.
Speaker 1: I also think you'll see a take up in isolation
Speaker 1: out of this group too, because remember again, like in
Speaker 1: a pick and roll situation. Let's say it's you know,
Speaker 1: Evan mobiley and Donovan Mitchell. If Donovan Mitchell gets good
Speaker 1: separation coming off the screen and the big man has
Speaker 1: to come out and effectively switches and Donovan Donovan Mitchell's
Speaker 1: man dives down to grab Evan Mobile. Typically you think, oh,
Speaker 1: go to the post, but you could also attack the
Speaker 1: big man in isolation, and Donovan Mitchell was a good
Speaker 1: isolation player last year. Out of sixty one players who
Speaker 1: ran at least one hundred isolations, he finished twelfth inefficiency
Speaker 1: at one point zero four points per possession, and Darius
Speaker 1: Garland was actually a little bit better at one point
Speaker 1: zero six points per possession. I'll be it on lower volumes.
Speaker 1: So I look at this as a situation where again
Speaker 1: heavy dye to pick and roll specifically targeting matchups, and
Speaker 1: that's gonna be the key for this particular group understanding.
Speaker 1: You know, if Donovan Mitchell has a better defensive player
Speaker 1: on him, specifically one that's good at navigating ball screens,
Speaker 1: they might be better off going more high volume towards
Speaker 1: Darius Garland and vice versa. And then the same thing
Speaker 1: with the role man Understanding that if Evan Mobley is
Speaker 1: being guarded by an exceptional UH screen defender like ball
Speaker 1: screen defender, it's better to have him spot up and
Speaker 1: vice versa with Jared Allen. Right, So from that standpoint,
Speaker 1: it'll be about being selective about who they attack and
Speaker 1: where on the floor and then understanding that it u
Speaker 1: when they result in switches. You've got two players that
Speaker 1: can attack an isolation from the perimeter against the bigs,
Speaker 1: and then also two players that can attack the switches
Speaker 1: down low in the post um. The I would say
Speaker 1: that with this Mitchell trade again, they were twenty in
Speaker 1: offense last year. I think it's realistic to expect that
Speaker 1: they could bump up as high as number ten and
Speaker 1: probably somewhere in that ten to fifteen range. So let's
Speaker 1: just call for sake of argument, if things go really
Speaker 1: well for them this year, that they end up around
Speaker 1: tenth in offense um. Moving on to the defensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor, I expect him to run a ton
Speaker 1: of drop coverage. This is not gonna be a good
Speaker 1: switching team because Darius Garlands very small. Even if Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell improves as a defensive player, he's miles away from
Speaker 1: being good enough to be a guy that can consistently
Speaker 1: hold up in isolation. And then Jared Allen, you know
Speaker 1: Evan mobile can switch out and guard perimeter players. Jared
Speaker 1: Allen's okay at it, but not great. With this particular group,
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to run a really modern,
Speaker 1: switchy type of attack. It's gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: navigating screens, and there's going to be a lot of
Speaker 1: pressure specifically on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to navigate
Speaker 1: around those screens um to be useful on the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor. The wing is gonna be where
Speaker 1: their biggest defensive question mark is not because they aren't
Speaker 1: good there. Again, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are their
Speaker 1: weakest defensive players. I'm more concerned in the Eastern Conference
Speaker 1: with the big wings that they're going to run into.
Speaker 1: You have to get through Jimmy Butler. You have to
Speaker 1: get through Jayson Tatum, you have to get through Jalen Brown,
Speaker 1: you have to get through Jana Santana Kompo. The wings
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference are are are deep, talented, big, strong, versatile,
Speaker 1: and is a guy like Chetty Osman gonna be able
Speaker 1: to hold up athletically in that setting. I don't know,
Speaker 1: is you know, um uh Lamar Stevens gonna be able
Speaker 1: to hold up. I don't know is Isaac Cora gonna
Speaker 1: be able to hold up? I think those two guys
Speaker 1: are a little bit undersized. Uh Lamar Stevens is big
Speaker 1: and strong. He'll be but guys will be able to
Speaker 1: shoot over the top of him. So it's it's one
Speaker 1: of those things where that specific role of guarding the
Speaker 1: best big wings in the league a playoff series scares
Speaker 1: me a little bit. Now, what will end up being
Speaker 1: a huge X factor. There's Evan Mobley and big shock.
Speaker 1: Evan Mobley is my X factor for this particular team,
Speaker 1: but kind of cheating ahead here. If he could be
Speaker 1: the guy that could switch on to Jayson Tatum in
Speaker 1: a playoff series and guard him in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: of a pivotal game, or do the same for a
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler man, that would go a long way towards
Speaker 1: alleviating my concerns on that end of the floor. And
Speaker 1: then again, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, they're not gonna
Speaker 1: be able to do a lot of switching, so it's
Speaker 1: going to come down to them being willing to fight
Speaker 1: over the top of screens. If they buy in and
Speaker 1: they at least do the best they can with the
Speaker 1: physical tools that they have, I think they'll be a
Speaker 1: top five defense. Again, I absolutely think that's on the
Speaker 1: table all right, So the best case scenario, now, I
Speaker 1: think even Cavs fans would admit that they're not as
Speaker 1: good defensively on the perimeter as the best teams in
Speaker 1: the league. Right Like, they're not going to contain on
Speaker 1: the perimeter the way the Boston Celtics can, or the
Speaker 1: Miami Heat can, or the Milwaukee Bucks can, or the
Speaker 1: Golden State Warriors can or the l A Clippers can,
Speaker 1: right I think even Cavs fans would be willing to
Speaker 1: admit that. But interior defense, they'll be as good, if
Speaker 1: not better than anybody in the league. So, especially in
Speaker 1: a playoff series when hands get sweaty and guys aren't
Speaker 1: comfortable taking jump shots, that could be something that works
Speaker 1: heavily towards their advantage. The same thing could be said
Speaker 1: about the offensive end of the floor. I don't think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be quite as fluid as the top tier
Speaker 1: offensive teams in the league because of some of the
Speaker 1: floor spacing stuff with Jared Allen question marks surrounding Evan
Speaker 1: Mobile and his ability to shoot the basketball question marks
Speaker 1: from that three spot. If they can get competence shooting
Speaker 1: from the wing, I don't think they'll quite be as
Speaker 1: fluid offensively, but they have that upside punch of what
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can bring to a playoff
Speaker 1: series if they get hot, So to put it simply,
Speaker 1: they have their punchers chance to beat anybody is if
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell has a you know, in the bubble esque
Speaker 1: run like when he was going up against Jamal Murray.
Speaker 1: If he has that type of playoff run and Darius
Speaker 1: Garland plays well, and they completely and utterly shut down
Speaker 1: the paint against teams, and they happen to catch a
Speaker 1: team that shoots poorly, even the best teams. If the
Speaker 1: Warriors shot poorly, if the Clippers shot poorly, if the
Speaker 1: Celtics shot poorly, or the Heat shot poorly, or the
Speaker 1: Bucks shot poorly, and they locked down the paint and
Speaker 1: Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played well, they can win
Speaker 1: a playoff series. Again, like when you have a truly
Speaker 1: elite skill in this case, perimeter defense excuse me, interior
Speaker 1: defense and perimeter shot creation. Those two elite skills, provided
Speaker 1: some other things break your way, can be enough to
Speaker 1: win a playoff series again if things break your way.
Speaker 1: So their best case scenario absolutely is winning the championship.
Speaker 1: It's a long shot, but it's absolutely something that's on
Speaker 1: the table for this group. Um their worst case scenario
Speaker 1: is if their defense takes a step back because you
Speaker 1: lose lowering market and so you're a little bit smaller
Speaker 1: on the wing compared to what they had last year.
Speaker 1: Um if Donovan Mitchell obviously when Colin Sexton went back
Speaker 1: came out, they played another defensive wing alongside Darius Garland.
Speaker 1: If you plug Donovan Mitchell there and he plays defense
Speaker 1: the way he did in Utah, they could take a
Speaker 1: step back defensively. Obviously, injuries could be an issue. Jared
Speaker 1: Allen miss time with a finger last year. Um Uh,
Speaker 1: it just depends like if if Evan Mobley can stay
Speaker 1: healthy throughout the season. Everybody is susceptible to injuries on
Speaker 1: that front. Um. I talked about Evan Mobley taking significant
Speaker 1: leaps like he shot from three last year. The hope
Speaker 1: is he shoots better this year. That's not a guarantee though.
Speaker 1: That's a question mark there if that if his development
Speaker 1: is slower than expected. Donovan Mitchell shot selection. I talked
Speaker 1: a lot about how good Donovan Mitchell is, and he is.
Speaker 1: He's one of the best on ball creators that we
Speaker 1: have in this league. But he does has just that
Speaker 1: tiny bit of that Russell Westbrook syndrome where he struggles
Speaker 1: to see the total picture of what's happening in a
Speaker 1: basketball game, and so he can in pivotal moments, especially
Speaker 1: take a bad shot or turn the basketball over or
Speaker 1: barrel into traffic and miss a layup or something along
Speaker 1: those lines. He does have a little bit of that
Speaker 1: in his game, and that always is dangerous, especially I
Speaker 1: talked about this all the time. Playoff series is are
Speaker 1: are determined by the slightest of margins, and it can
Speaker 1: take one silly mistake in a pivotal game five when
Speaker 1: the series is tied at two that can cost you
Speaker 1: a series, or be the difference from it being to
Speaker 1: two or being three one that that having their primary
Speaker 1: shot creator be someone that's a little volatile is a
Speaker 1: little concerning to me. So they also have potential to
Speaker 1: lose in the first round. I don't expect that to
Speaker 1: be the case. I think that I think the more
Speaker 1: realistic outcome is they win a playoff series and lose
Speaker 1: in the second round. But this is a team that
Speaker 1: has that wide range of outcomes. They have a puncher's
Speaker 1: chance to win the title of things goes. Things go right,
Speaker 1: and they could all so losing the first round if
Speaker 1: things go wrong. So the X factor is Evan Mobley.
Speaker 1: You know, obviously, right now, at this exact moment in time,
Speaker 1: he's already a great defensive player. He's already one of
Speaker 1: the better shot blockers that we have in the league.
Speaker 1: He already can switch out and defend on the perimeter
Speaker 1: pretty well. But there's just a little bit of finicky
Speaker 1: nous on offense right Like he only from three last year.
Speaker 1: He's still young. He passes the ball well, but his
Speaker 1: assisted turnover ratio wasn't great last year. It's more of
Speaker 1: like a potential thing. I think in the long run
Speaker 1: he's going to be potentially a better version of Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis because of what he can do from the perimeter
Speaker 1: with quick feet. He's got a long way to go
Speaker 1: to get there, but that is potential that he has
Speaker 1: and it's potential that I believe he could reach that.
Speaker 1: Said he in order for them to reach their ceiling
Speaker 1: this particular season, they need him to take that leap
Speaker 1: sooner than later. They need him to bump up his
Speaker 1: three point percentage from twenty five to thirty five. They
Speaker 1: need him to bulk up a little bit so he
Speaker 1: can defend those stronger wings. Like I talked about him
Speaker 1: being able to guard a Jimmy Butler in the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter of Game four of a T one playoff series,
Speaker 1: could be the difference between this team losing and winning
Speaker 1: in that particular series. So he his development, how good
Speaker 1: he becomes in this campaign, will be the biggest indicator
Speaker 1: of what this team can do. Therefore, he is their
Speaker 1: X factor. Um, Cavs fans, if you wanted more on
Speaker 1: this particular team, I did do about twenty minutes on
Speaker 1: them last week right after the trade, so you can
Speaker 1: find that a little bit deeper in our in our
Speaker 1: YouTube feed. That's all I have for today, and that's
Speaker 1: it for this weekend. We will be back Monday with
Speaker 1: number eleven. As always, I appreciate your guys a support
Speaker 1: and I'll see you. And then the volume