Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: The single best idea is to learn the Bloomberg terminal
Speaker 2: with a dollar dynamics of the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2: I was visualizing in my head way too early in
Speaker 2: the morning a chart of gold back on teen years.
Speaker 2: I want to walk through it. I think it's so important.
Speaker 2: The pros talk about standard deviation. The single best idea
Speaker 2: is to try to understand central limit theorem and the
Speaker 2: idea of percent change and how you gauge that looking
Speaker 2: at the past data. And one way we do this
Speaker 2: to keep it short is standard deviation. One standard deviation
Speaker 2: is no big deal. Two standard deviations in the realm
Speaker 2: of okay, it's going to happen. And three standard deviations
Speaker 2: as a general statement indicates stress. If you take goal
Speaker 2: analgarithmic y axis back twenty years, twenty four years I
Speaker 2: think I did, and you plot it out. We are
Speaker 2: at two standard deviations right now with gold at fifty
Speaker 2: three hundred, where is three standard deviations? Seven thousand, four
Speaker 2: hundred is a quick estimate, not to the dollar, but
Speaker 2: in the vicinity of seven thousand, four hundred is where
Speaker 2: I would suggest the recent two decades of gold indicates
Speaker 2: a stress. We talked about the stress today with win Thin.
Speaker 2: He's at the Bank of Nasau, Doctor Thin, iconic out
Speaker 2: of Columbia. With all of us work over the years
Speaker 2: under Robert Mandel and in the academics of his specific
Speaker 2: rim and Burma win Thin on this dollar moment.
Speaker 3: Professor Mindel was a brilliant economist and I think any
Speaker 3: international economist should read his works today. It's still to
Speaker 3: me groundbreaking. He introduced whole idea of capital flows before
Speaker 3: capa flows.
Speaker 2: Actually, is Donald Trump aware of the capitol flow risk
Speaker 2: when he says weak dollar?
Speaker 3: Well, right now, they're having this sort of in this
Speaker 3: ott sweet spot where they're getting you know, they're getting
Speaker 3: weaker dollar without the spillover into other markets. But you know,
Speaker 3: we've seen time and time again in both development and
Speaker 3: immerging markets. You know the times when these moves get
Speaker 3: very disorderly, it's hard to get that genie back in
Speaker 3: the bottle.
Speaker 2: That really well said. And of course one way to
Speaker 2: look at this is again to go to the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: terminal and I took dollar yen. Dollar yen has come in.
Speaker 2: It's a stronger yen. It's basically one sixty two down
Speaker 2: to one fifty two fifty three stronger yen fine, where
Speaker 2: does the end become ever stronger? And there's any number
Speaker 2: of interpretations of this, but to my quick eyeball in
Speaker 2: math too early in the morning, we have a way
Speaker 2: to go to get the real strong yen stress and
Speaker 2: I would vary, I'm just making this real rough. It's
Speaker 2: like ten below from a one to fifty two to
Speaker 2: under one strong in week dollar. Basically, we're not there.
Speaker 2: And that's the idea of that the genies out of
Speaker 2: the bottle is maybe that where we're heading the genie
Speaker 2: will be rubbed at the FED today. It'll be an
Speaker 2: interesting day, to say the least constant hunter of EIU.
Speaker 2: On this moment.
Speaker 1: For Jerome, PA, we're seeing elevated goods prices where goods
Speaker 1: prices had been zero to slightly negative for quite some time,
Speaker 1: because of course we have increased productivity in that sector
Speaker 1: of the economy. We obviously have China exporting disinflation or
Speaker 1: deflation to the rest of the world by their extraordinary
Speaker 1: supply that they provide, and the tariffs upended that, so
Speaker 1: something that was not contributing to higher inflation was actually
Speaker 1: contributing to lower inflation has gone away constants.
Speaker 2: Under there in the separation between services and goods. Of
Speaker 2: course we'll do our fed covers a s afternoon we
Speaker 2: leave the Torsten Slock his essay today and pro productivity
Speaker 2: important on podcasts on Apple and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts.
Speaker 2: It's single best idea