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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The single best idea is to learn the Bloomberg terminal

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Speaker 2: with a dollar dynamics of the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 2: I was visualizing in my head way too early in

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Speaker 2: the morning a chart of gold back on teen years.

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Speaker 2: I want to walk through it. I think it's so important.

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Speaker 2: The pros talk about standard deviation. The single best idea

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Speaker 2: is to try to understand central limit theorem and the

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Speaker 2: idea of percent change and how you gauge that looking

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Speaker 2: at the past data. And one way we do this

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Speaker 2: to keep it short is standard deviation. One standard deviation

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Speaker 2: is no big deal. Two standard deviations in the realm

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Speaker 2: of okay, it's going to happen. And three standard deviations

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Speaker 2: as a general statement indicates stress. If you take goal

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Speaker 2: analgarithmic y axis back twenty years, twenty four years I

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Speaker 2: think I did, and you plot it out. We are

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Speaker 2: at two standard deviations right now with gold at fifty

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Speaker 2: three hundred, where is three standard deviations? Seven thousand, four

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Speaker 2: hundred is a quick estimate, not to the dollar, but

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Speaker 2: in the vicinity of seven thousand, four hundred is where

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Speaker 2: I would suggest the recent two decades of gold indicates

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Speaker 2: a stress. We talked about the stress today with win Thin.

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Speaker 2: He's at the Bank of Nasau, Doctor Thin, iconic out

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Speaker 2: of Columbia. With all of us work over the years

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Speaker 2: under Robert Mandel and in the academics of his specific

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Speaker 2: rim and Burma win Thin on this dollar moment.

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Speaker 3: Professor Mindel was a brilliant economist and I think any

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Speaker 3: international economist should read his works today. It's still to

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Speaker 3: me groundbreaking. He introduced whole idea of capital flows before

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Speaker 3: capa flows.

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Speaker 2: Actually, is Donald Trump aware of the capitol flow risk

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Speaker 2: when he says weak dollar?

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Speaker 3: Well, right now, they're having this sort of in this

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Speaker 3: ott sweet spot where they're getting you know, they're getting

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Speaker 3: weaker dollar without the spillover into other markets. But you know,

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Speaker 3: we've seen time and time again in both development and

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Speaker 3: immerging markets. You know the times when these moves get

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Speaker 3: very disorderly, it's hard to get that genie back in

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Speaker 3: the bottle.

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Speaker 2: That really well said. And of course one way to

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Speaker 2: look at this is again to go to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: terminal and I took dollar yen. Dollar yen has come in.

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Speaker 2: It's a stronger yen. It's basically one sixty two down

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Speaker 2: to one fifty two fifty three stronger yen fine, where

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Speaker 2: does the end become ever stronger? And there's any number

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Speaker 2: of interpretations of this, but to my quick eyeball in

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Speaker 2: math too early in the morning, we have a way

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Speaker 2: to go to get the real strong yen stress and

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Speaker 2: I would vary, I'm just making this real rough. It's

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Speaker 2: like ten below from a one to fifty two to

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Speaker 2: under one strong in week dollar. Basically, we're not there.

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Speaker 2: And that's the idea of that the genies out of

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Speaker 2: the bottle is maybe that where we're heading the genie

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Speaker 2: will be rubbed at the FED today. It'll be an

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Speaker 2: interesting day, to say the least constant hunter of EIU.

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Speaker 2: On this moment.

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Speaker 1: For Jerome, PA, we're seeing elevated goods prices where goods

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Speaker 1: prices had been zero to slightly negative for quite some time,

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Speaker 1: because of course we have increased productivity in that sector

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Speaker 1: of the economy. We obviously have China exporting disinflation or

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Speaker 1: deflation to the rest of the world by their extraordinary

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Speaker 1: supply that they provide, and the tariffs upended that, so

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Speaker 1: something that was not contributing to higher inflation was actually

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Speaker 1: contributing to lower inflation has gone away constants.

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Speaker 2: Under there in the separation between services and goods. Of

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Speaker 2: course we'll do our fed covers a s afternoon we

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Speaker 2: leave the Torsten Slock his essay today and pro productivity

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Speaker 2: important on podcasts on Apple and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts.

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Speaker 2: It's single best idea