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Speaker 1: This is breaking news update from Bloomberg Instant reaction and

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Speaker 1: analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around the world.

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Speaker 2: The President communicates with the world through his favorite messaging.

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Speaker 3: It is a very long tweet. I'm going to get

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Speaker 3: to the key sentence.

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Speaker 2: I've instructed the Department of War to postpone any and

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Speaker 2: all military strikes against Iranian power plans and energy infrastructure

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Speaker 2: for a five day period. Markets reverse and rocket nansdak

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Speaker 2: up two percent, standard impores five hundred, exploding up one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty points. Pault swinging your interpretation please.

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Speaker 4: I think a lot of folks has been waiting for

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Speaker 4: this social media post. At some point, President Trump's just

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Speaker 4: going to say enough is enough and maybe perhaps think

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Speaker 4: about moving on.

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Speaker 3: We are fortunate to have Jaman and Brissetti here, Jamana.

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Speaker 4: I guess this raises a question in to the extent

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Speaker 4: that President Trump is looking here as this tweet suggests

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Speaker 4: to kind of step back and wind down operations in

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Speaker 4: that part of the world. Is there a sense that

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Speaker 4: that's the right move at this point, or is it

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Speaker 4: their sense that boy, the US has broken this part

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Speaker 4: of the world and to be up for others to

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Speaker 4: deal with it.

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Speaker 5: Look, I think there's a big question about what exactly

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Speaker 5: the US are trying to achieve here in all of

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Speaker 5: the mixed messaging that has come through this weekend. We

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Speaker 5: woke up in the morning on Saturday to use that

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Speaker 5: President Trump was thinking of a military windown, only a

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Speaker 5: few hours later to put up this forty eighth our

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Speaker 5: ultimatum to Iran, a threat to attack their power plants.

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Speaker 5: And we know that, as I just mentioned to you,

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Speaker 5: that would constitute a real existential threat to many of

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Speaker 5: these Gulf sites and desalination plants specifically, they have been

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Speaker 5: putting a lot of pressure, most likely on the US

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Speaker 5: administration not to follow through on that threat. But at

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Speaker 5: the same time, the fact that he's pushed it back

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Speaker 5: by five days suggests that the threat of them acting

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Speaker 5: is still there. And then equally alongside that they are

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Speaker 5: own reporting suggests that the US are weighing up the

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Speaker 5: possibility of taking over karg Islands. I think thousands of

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Speaker 5: more marines to the region as well, And so anyway

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Speaker 5: you look at it, it does seem like this war

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Speaker 5: is going to go on for a couple of weeks

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Speaker 5: rather than a couple of days. Irrespective of the posts

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Speaker 5: that he just put up.

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Speaker 3: Now, Jubona, please stay with us. I have to do

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Speaker 3: a market check here to keep it going.

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Speaker 2: Oil plunges, a dollar comes in weaker right now as well.

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Speaker 4: Also gold Tom Gold is down about three point seven

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Speaker 4: percent forty four hundred dollars per ounce. Robert Teeter, chief

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Speaker 4: investment strategist to Silver Crest Asset Management, Robert, you walked

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Speaker 4: into the door probably with one set of expectations. Now

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Speaker 4: we're here here with one tweet later or one social

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Speaker 4: media post later. The world's changed yet again. How do

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Speaker 4: you put that in context? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. You know, it's been very much a day by

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Speaker 1: day environment here, and I think this really speaks to

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Speaker 1: it as well. You know, you've had a market that

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Speaker 1: corrected sort of gradually as it went through this process,

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Speaker 1: rather than some of the prior events we've had where

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Speaker 1: you had a really big, significant decline and then you

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Speaker 1: sort of work your way back. And I think that

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Speaker 1: was the market's expectation that this day would come at

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Speaker 1: some point, So it was a step by step, day

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Speaker 1: by day adjustment. Because we sit here today, the critical

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Speaker 1: element will be if this is a five day window,

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Speaker 1: do we start to get ships and commodities and oil

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Speaker 1: flowing through the Strait in the next five days. The

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Speaker 1: timing sets up interestingly. As I look at it, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is something that could be contained to first quarter

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Speaker 1: in terms of any type of disruption that companies want

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Speaker 1: to blame this on. So if you get oil moving

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Speaker 1: in the next five days, then I think we're right

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Speaker 1: back pretty quickly to a pretty normal environment where investors

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Speaker 1: are looking at second quarter, third quarter and beyond. If

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Speaker 1: you get no traffic through the straight over the five days,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, you still have to be a little

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Speaker 1: bit careful here he.

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Speaker 2: Did the bond market tell the president what to do?

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Speaker 2: I mean, at a seismic shift in bonds, the bond

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Speaker 2: market shifted.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, bonds lead stocks absolutely. Bond market

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Speaker 1: a powerful player here. If you want to call it

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Speaker 1: the bond vigilantes, you could. This is a very strong

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Speaker 1: message the bond market was sending and saying something needs

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Speaker 1: to happen and soon. Now we've had commentary before that

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Speaker 1: indicated that perhaps we were towards the end of the conflict,

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Speaker 1: and so again for me, it's a one very metric.

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Speaker 1: I look here on Bloomberg at ecan and look at

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Speaker 1: the traffic through the strait, and hopefully over the next

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Speaker 1: few days and weeks we'll start to see some numbers

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Speaker 1: sticking up there.

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Speaker 4: I guess if you're the Fed here, inflation was something

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Speaker 4: that probably had your attention a little bit more than

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Speaker 4: expected the last meaning maybe this suggests that there may

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Speaker 4: be a little easing on that front, a little bit

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Speaker 4: on the at least on the energy sign.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right again, especially if traffic starts

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Speaker 1: flowing through the strait, then yes, you get alleviation and

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Speaker 1: oil prices that they're seeing here this morning. That alleviates

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Speaker 1: some of the stress in terms of commodities across the board,

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Speaker 1: not just oil but other commodities as well, and the

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Speaker 1: pass through effect that puts the FED in a much

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Speaker 1: better spot. I hesitate to say that we'd get back

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Speaker 1: to normal right away, but I think pretty quickly we

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Speaker 1: can get back to normal in terms of balanced outlook,

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Speaker 1: with a bias towards a cut later in the year.

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Speaker 1: If you get a weak employment print. Our view had

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Speaker 1: always been that you will get a weak employment print

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Speaker 1: at some point. It might be a blip and that'll

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Speaker 1: be what gives the FED the catalyst to respond.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for our first view of the morning, Robert Tetter,

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Speaker 2: I greatly appreciate ahead of investment policy and strategy. Silvercrest

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Speaker 2: Asset Management, Paul I just did a fancy chart off

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Speaker 2: dal Jones industrial average futures. It's incredibly elegant chart. We

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Speaker 2: are down in the gloom of perfect two standard deviations

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Speaker 2: and we've bounced right up to my key middle term

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Speaker 2: moving average line.

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Speaker 3: We have a long way to go on the Dow

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Speaker 3: to get back to normal.

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Speaker 4: By seeing the Dow up a thousand, you don't see

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Speaker 4: that every day. So again, market's moving on, trying to

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Speaker 4: digest what this means in the next several days, of

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Speaker 4: what it means over the next several weeks.

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Speaker 3: So stay on it.

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Speaker 2: Perfect timing to speak with Henrietta, Trey's co founder Veda Partners,

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Speaker 2: just wonderful on the pulse of Washington. Henrietta, who did

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Speaker 2: the President listen to? Who did he take counsel from

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Speaker 2: to make this reversal in policy?

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Speaker 6: Well, you can really pick your target. It could be

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Speaker 6: the immigration polling data, It could be the fact that

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Speaker 6: Congress is not going to pass this two hundred billion

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Speaker 6: dollars supplemental spending requests for many months now. It could

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Speaker 6: be the prices that are increasing nationwide. It could be

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Speaker 6: the fact that you can't you know online the Jones

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Speaker 6: Act and expected to offset closure of the straight up

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Speaker 6: Woor moves. But the economic data sets going into a

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Speaker 6: INTRM election cycle are a problem that you know, the

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Speaker 6: president created and he has to fix. There's no interplay

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Speaker 6: with Congress here, so it makes sense that he be

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Speaker 6: the executor sort of implementing change and winding things back

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Speaker 6: as becomes completely untenable for the American Republic to support

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Speaker 6: him going into metroal elections.

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Speaker 2: But you go right to where I wanted to go next.

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Speaker 2: Who is the interplay with his an inner circle? Who

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Speaker 2: is he talking to within his inner circle or is

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Speaker 2: this a president alone?

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Speaker 6: I think it's got to be an expansive set on everybody,

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Speaker 6: from the fundraisers and the donors, to the political campaigns,

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Speaker 6: the down ballot Democrats excuse me, Republicans, as well as

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Speaker 6: his own cabinet that is continuing to see polling data

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Speaker 6: come in over and over and over again saying that

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Speaker 6: the American public does not support the war. You might

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Speaker 6: have ninety four percent of the magabase, but you've lost everybody,

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Speaker 6: including a huge majority of independence. So when you look

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Speaker 6: at those data sets, it doesn't matter who enters the room.

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Speaker 6: If it's your energy secretary, your transportation secretary, your secretary

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Speaker 6: of defense, all those people are getting negative feedback from

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Speaker 6: the Pentagon to state Department