WEBVTT - Short Squeeze Fogs Market’s View on Iran Peace Prospects 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:21.240 on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.880 Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.040 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:31.720 Wonderful segment of the program nationwide into the original San 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:36.440 Francisco of Charles Schwab, Lizzy, Ane Saunders, and Kevin Gordon join. 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:36.880 Us this morning. 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:41.040 David Rosenberg published up in Toronto and emphasized the word hope. 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.400 You lead in your note with the word hope. Lizzie 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.560 Sanders gauge the hope em out there right now. 0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:50.680 Well, yesterday there was a lot of it. I think 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:55.240 it's impossible, given the instability of how we get information 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:59.080 and narrative changes and headlines, to look at a day 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.080 like yesterday thing akin to what we saw last April ninth. 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.520 I think there's still a lot of unanswered questions, even 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:10.000 just you know, you're reporting on Trump's comment about the 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.720 ceasefire being contingent upon the straight orform moves opening. Yet 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:17.040 yesterday it was you know, we might end this thing 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:18.399 even if the strait doesn't open. 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:19.800 So here we go again. 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:23.160 Exactly, Kevin, given those crosswinds out there, when you're talking 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:26.520 to your clients, what's the message is it to look 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:29.600 past all this craziness and focus on the fundamentals. What's 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:30.120 a conversation? 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.360 I mean, especially with any conflict like this, you never 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.600 want to make a knee jerk reaction. I mean, we've 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.399 adjusted how we think about markets and the economy responding 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:38.959 to this as it's continued. 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:39.080 To drag on. 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.720 Clearly we've taken you know, we've dialed back expectations for 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:44.319 what growth is supposed to look like. But I often think, 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.840 you know, in terms of an investor's reaction, I can't 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:49.040 help but think about the Jack Bocal quote, don't just 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:52.080 do something? Stand there, and I think in this moment, 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:54.960 you know, it kind of feels act because you don't 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.240 want to make you can't have a high conviction view 0:01:57.240 --> 0:01:59.360 on any particular asset class. I think right now you 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:03.440 can have some maybe on something like commodities that's somewhat obvious, 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.840 but I think for the equity market, you know, to 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.200 Lazand's point about how we get information these days, I 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:12.000 mean that gap between Washington and markets is narrowing every 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.919 single day in terms of policy makings impact on day 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.639 to day equity moves. So I think that needs to 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:17.639 be taken into consideration. 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:18.360 I mean, let me do this. 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.840 Paul Kevin Gordon out with an incredible chart. You know, 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.959 les Anne Saunders hasn't seen it, so let's cover it 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:24.320 right now. 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:26.440 Well, you know, Lysanne Sanders didn't create it. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:27.240 Hark. 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:31.080 You see the standard four or five hundreds forward twelve months, 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:35.320 pe was a lofty twenty three point one and has 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:37.799 come in. I'm gonna go stan Fisher on you here 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:41.680 is coming. I'm popping fifteen or twenty percent from twenty 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:45.399 three point one into nineteen point six as well. Does 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.760 that scream opportunity with you? For you a sub twenty 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:50.440 s and P multiple? 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:55.240 This has been pure multiple contraction in this corrective phase 0:02:56.120 --> 0:03:00.240 because earnings estimates have continued to go higher. I think 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.920 the answer to that will be better defined once we 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:07.240 actually start earning season. We know why energy sector estimates 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.639 have gone up. Tech sector estimates have gone up, but 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:12.160 with a concentration and just a couple of names, the 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:16.280 analysts really haven't done must adjusting to estimates for a 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:19.640 calendar year, maybe because they're waiting you know, for as 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.359 much time as possible to get up to the eve 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:25.760 of reporting season and or wait till they get commentary 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:26.680 from companies. 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:31.040 Kevin, we had a rotation I think, kind of late 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.160 last year, coming into prior to the war, maybe coming 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:35.880 out of some of the high growth, high multiple stuff 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.080 that have been the drivers's market, and maybe in some 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:41.160 more cyclical stuff small and midcaps. Was that just a 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:43.640 short term trading thing or is that something longer to 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:44.080 you guys. 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:46.640 Yeah, you know what's been interesting is that even on 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:49.320 a day like yesterday, when you had tech having its 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.480 best day, the tech sector having its best day since 0:03:51.480 --> 0:03:54.760 twenty twenty five, that was to me, in response to 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:57.040 what had become the momentum trade in favor of energy, 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:00.560 you know, not in favor of tech. What interesting, though, 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.280 is even with that significant bounce, you didn't really see 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.880 any material pickup in flows, particularly in the retail cohort 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:10.200 into that sector. I think that that response mechanism, or 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:13.600 lack thereof, is pretty important because even in advance of 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:15.480 the war, there was a lot of de risking in 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.159 that particular sector for that cohort, where they were starting 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.520 to put money to work in outside of that and 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.080 having a little bit higher conviction in areas of you know, 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:25.000 whether it was industrials, whether it was you know, parts 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:28.120 of consumer of discretionary and staples, or whether it was 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.120 even financials. So I think that that dynamic, the fact 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:33.560 that hasn't really shifted, it does tell me that there's 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:37.000 still probably more to that broadening out trade, if you 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:38.840 want to think about it that way. But I just 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.560 think it's been a little bit more delayed, not necessarily derailed. 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:43.760 But we're sort of in the camp that it can happen. 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.080 It's just, of course now, at the mercy of these 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.720 headlines every day, it's probably not going to happen as 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:49.600 fast as we had thought. 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.799 Lizianne Saunders, Kevin Gordon with this with Charles Schwab together, 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.599 we just loved doing this huge response last time. Thank 0:04:55.640 --> 0:05:00.280 you for listening across Liziane Saunder's nation. I want to 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:03.480 talk process here. Did you guys, like, on something as 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:06.520 basic as the adjustment of fear of missing ouse? 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:08.719 Is he allowed to disagree with you? 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.000 I mean he's allowed one? 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:13.560 Are you doing, Steve Roach? One on one where you 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.200 fight like cats and dogs? 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:19.320 You know, seven years ago when I hired this guy, 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.640 I think he not that I ever put fear in anybody, 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:24.040 but I. 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.760 Think you were. It was your a natural thing for you. Yep. 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:31.360 I agree. Now he can say whatever he wants, but 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.440 we're pretty consistently aligned. 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:35.080 Where are you on. 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:38.360 Fear missing out right now? Gauging it after the shock 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:39.320 of this war. 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:44.240 You know, I think that the retail trader did slightly 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:47.200 shift their tack throughout the course of this war. They 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.640 became a little bit less enthusiastic at the individual stock 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.440 lever level with the sort of the buy the dip 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:57.000 and you know, chasing performance on the upside. So I 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:01.720 think there's been a little bit of a little less 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:05.120 complacency being expressed in some of the moves by the 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:08.800 retail trader. I really, though, think what's going on here is, 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.080 given the inability to gauge what the next headline is 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:14.120 going to be, what the next narrative shift is going 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.360 to be, what we can glean and. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:17.800 Understand is positioning. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.400 Where I think there's so much short term money in 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.400 the market, whether it is the retail trader. 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:26.760 Or systematic hedge funds or the CTA. 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:30.560 World, and there's a lot of focus on what are 0:06:30.600 --> 0:06:34.400 the crowded trades, what are the desolate trades, and either 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:38.800 playing a momentum there or looking for the potential inflection 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.440 point where you see a shift. So if you can 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:47.360 understand the positioning, even though you can't anticipate the headlines, 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:49.800 it helps you staying gear. 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:53.200 I mean, I guess what I've learned over the last 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:55.360 I don't know, ten fifteen years a little bit more 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:59.359 is that your retail investors are They're pretty good. I 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:04.120 mean they buy the dips, they're pretty I mean I 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.359 haven't seen any, I haven't felt any. I don't know 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:08.200 panic selling. 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.600 Retail used to be called the dumb money exactly allocating 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:13.480 IPOs like. 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.520 I always used to say investors. 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:18.560 Yes, it's kind of lesand and I are sort of 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.680 on this campaign to get rid of that moniker, you know, 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:24.200 the dumb money, because it really isn't and it hasn't been. 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:26.360 And I think to your point Paul, about you know 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:29.840 this cohort of investors, particularly post pandemic, and you talked 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:31.960 about the past ten to fifteen years. Yes, the retail 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.720 share has gone up. It's sort of the only class 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:36.440 of investors that has gone up by as much as 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:39.280 it has almost doubling in percentage, you know, terms of 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.560 in terms of the volume of the market. But if 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.440 you look particularly the past six years, five to six years, yeah, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:47.400 there hasn't really been number one what I would think 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.240 of as a real bear market, certainly not when associated 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.200 with a recession. And I think that is sort of 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:55.360 conditioned investors in particularly this new cohort who you know, 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.840 especially for those who are younger in the you know, 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.520 whether it's Gen Z or young millennial. I think it 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.560 has kind of conditioned them to think that this will 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.239 sort of always work as a strategy, but also having 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:07.680 a longer time prise and that's not always associated with 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:08.640 having a high risk tolerance. 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:10.160 So do you guys have your events and you guys 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.760 go all over the way country? What's the I mean, 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:14.560 is there people like me walking in the door or 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.280 they're younger people walking because it seems like Mike depends 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.200 on on their phone gauged. 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.880 Yeah, depends on where we are, but I know are 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:22.600 in Brooklyn. 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:26.320 You know what we find Incline events a lot the 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:30.680 bigger ones are are multi generations. Yes, so it'll be 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:35.400 you know, a retired couple that in some cases they're 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.839 there with a child, and maybe even a grandchild. 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:40.000 So interesting. 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:42.280 It's the whole it's the whole age mix. 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:44.920 When you have twelve trillion dollars in assets, you have 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:46.440 a little bit of everything age wise. 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:49.480 Losing signers, Kevin Gordon or this week continue your futures 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:52.560 up twenty seven. The VIC slides from the angst thirty 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:55.520 one level where Kevin said, go to cash for sure, 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.640 they're twenty five nine. Here we are fifty minutes away 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:03.200 from US scheduled President Trump at the Supreme Court. I 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.480 just saw it on Fox triak out. He had a 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:08.880 substantial number of people below the steps of the Supreme 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.440 Court in Washington. We'll give you video of that on 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.880 YouTube as we can here. Don't see that quite right now. 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:17.360 So I've got another quote here. This is some Kevin 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:22.720 Gordon's research. I believe factor focus, high interests, coverage, strong 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:27.560 balance sheet, positive earnings, revision trends, and stable improving profit 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:29.720 margins Kevin ze mag seven. 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.320 Not all of them, but I think that over the 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:35.640 long term that has proven to be number one. That's 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.199 been where the stability has been in consistency of returns. 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.600 Post pandemic, we really have been in a more sort 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:43.480 of factor dominated world because it's just harder to make 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.240 these monolithic sector calls. It's getting harder. It's not impossible, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.120 but it's getting harder because of the concentration in a 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:51.640 lot of these areas. I mean, communication services is such 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.080 a standout for that because it's essentially two names that 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.800 are sometimes close to eighty percent of that sector. But no, 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:01.040 we still believe in that up in quality sort of story, 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.880 and I would say actually that that's moved the I 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:06.840 think what's been one of the more beneficial elements of 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:08.840 this market year to date is that's moved down the 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.840 cap spectrum a little bit, so the percentage of unprofitable companies. 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.120 Even in an index like the Russell two thousand that 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.400 has rolled over a year to date, it's still relatively high. 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.760 But I think that there's been a benefit now spread 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:23.600 throughout the market, not necessarily just in your classic SMP five. 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.600 Hundred, Lizanne, you and I started in the business kind 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:28.360 of around the same time. One of the things that's 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:32.760 really changed, I think is the whole alternative investment opportunities 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.880 for everybody, including retail investors. Yes, how do you guys 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:40.280 at Schwab position alternative investments, whether it's ed's phones, private equity, 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.360 private credit, real estate, all that kind of stuff, and 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:43.160 you guys position that. 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:45.560 And you know we are. 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:50.080 We have been big democratizers over the past fifty plus years, 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.160 and I think we're part of that process now in 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:58.359 helping to bring alternative asset classes into the asset allocation discussion. 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.160 The most important thing is that you around it and 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.920 also fit making sure the clients who are bringing, whether 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:07.800 it's private credit or private equity or hedge funds, that 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.960 they understand how it fits and what is hopefully a 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.960 well planned strategic acid allocation portfolio. Where are the correlations, 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:18.760 What is the willingness to give up some of that transparency, 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:22.959 to give up some of that liquidity. Don't just think 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:24.920 of it as the shiny new object. I need to 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.199 get some of this. It's the education that sits behind it. 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.679 And most of the investors that we talk to who 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:33.000 want to add that into the mix are those that 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:35.520 take what we call an advised approach where they're working 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.479 with one of our advisors, one of our financial consultants 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.240 in developing a long term actual plan. 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.200 I have to ask this to close out, Lazaann, you 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.440 did a real public service for the nation. I brought 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.560 this up before on our fiscal policy. You must be 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:52.320 getting questions on our debt and. 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.680 Deficit every single solsarial day. 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:59.079 Is it any different from the time of Pete Peterson, 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:04.080 Paul Sungas and the Senator from Georgia? Is the same old, 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:04.560 same old. 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.240 The questions are a little bit more. They have a 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:11.800 little bit more of a calamitous tone to them. Oftentimes, 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.240 when we get questions, it's not just what do you 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.400 think of the you know, high rising burden of debt 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:17.959 or you know, how long are we going to run 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.280 deficits this big? It's what is the tipping point? And 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.679 then it's often got to follow on like is the 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.160 dollar going to lose its reserve currency status? Is the 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:29.760 US going to default? Is China going to literally figuratively 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:31.640 wake up one day and just decide to dump all 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:34.440 of its treasury? So there's a little bit more of that. Boy, 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:36.640 I feel like we're at a tipping point tone to 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:37.800 the questions. 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:41.360 Can we move on from the NCAA tournament? Please please 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:46.400 Kevin explain Pepperdine playing u c l A back to 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:49.520 back in Stanford and volleyball, it's like. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.600 Players, Yeah, my favorite school to follow. 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:55.160 Is anyone under six five? 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.760 No, there were only me, but I wasn't on the team. 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:01.960 Is it like a. 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.920 Conduit from poona Ho in Hawaii? You just go to 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:07.800 and say we want six Thomas kids, let's. 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.200 Not Thomas tallest. But no, it's an amazing They're they're 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:13.440 they're killing it. I I love following that sport. It 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.240 was beach volleyball was my favorite to follow. 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:20.720 The beaches. 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:21.520 The beach. 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:24.600 We had an area called the beach. 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.200 It was like a quad and it didn't even have 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.240 grass though, so yeah, I kind of looked like. 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:31.280 It was a little different. 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:31.480 Though. 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.559 Yeah, I think the water in Malibu is a little. 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.120 Bit better, you know this, better than we've done way 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:37.920 too much West Coast today we had Harvey. 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.760 I know, Clara, there's never too much West Coast and 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:48.880 Clara Broncos Baby, there we go. Pepperdine has just consistently 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.000 across over the years, that's been one of, if not 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:54.920 our best sports, I mean in our tournament rankings and 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:55.560 that it's amazing. 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.720 So that was really Malibu. 0:13:57.960 --> 0:13:59.559 Yes, California. 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:01.480 You've got to look up a picture. 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:01.760 I know. 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:04.800 Let me let me translate this for you. And this 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:09.240 involves Jenny Kremail April second. Pepperdine's playing U C l 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:11.800 A and volleyball April second. 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.079 In Western New York. You get up and you've got a. 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:19.000 Biochemistry class at eight am, and you have to walk 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.040 what's called the quarter mile west into the wind coming 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:24.560 in from Buffalo. 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.080 Not to mention in Malibu, though, you've got to wake 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:35.160 up and climb one hundred stairs because we call it Stepperdine's. 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.440 Violins playing just for you over here. 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.440 I'll bring out my mind your volleyball updates. We do 0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:40.600 it all here, We do it all. Kevin Gordon, thank 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:43.000 you so much for bringing listen. Thank you sounders with you. 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:47.440 You're both wearing black. Kathy Jones retiring, extraordinary. 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.760 Career, amazing. We will We will miss her a lot. 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:55.280 As she did a taco tweet on President Trump. It 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.239 was totally outside compliance. 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:00.960 It was MI so it begins. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.560 I'll put the compliance. Plus she did mention yesterday on 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.800 Twitter that this is now her personal account. 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:11.360 So very personal. We wait there from Kevin Gordon as well, 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:17.600 Liza and Sanders. Kevin Gordon forever at Charles Schwatt, stay 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:21.560 with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after. 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:32.040 This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.400 Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.040 on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:40.960 or watch us Live on YouTube. 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:42.120 I do this. 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:47.280 Because you should see my new Philson Fishing Guide vest 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.040 Twitter eighty nine dollars. 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:50.520 Wow, it's very good. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:54.400 It's designed for anglers to organize gear for a full 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:58.440 day out on the tundra as well. On April first, 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:02.360 we always speak with Ellen because they said to Lisa Shallaton, 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.160 I'm sorry, I gotta do fly fishing here. There's the 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:11.520 pre runoff window. Yeah, like like the winter waters. Yeah, 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:13.560 the streams are like what clearer? 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:19.280 The fish have been starving all winter and you get 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:22.920 them before the runoff, and so they're pretty excited about that. 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:24.520 And you don't get a lot of pressure. You don't 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.360 see a lot of other anglers out there. And actually 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:32.160 some of the best fly fishing is going out for 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.480 Mother's Day, which is actually just before the runoff, but 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:38.520 won't make you very popular with mom. 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:43.400 Okay, is this the Arkansas and South Platt Is it 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.120 the yellowst the jelly Stone in Missouri? 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:48.280 Rivers. Where does Ellen Zetner. 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.880 Go, Well, Tom, you really you're really struggling with this 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:51.880 this this morning. 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.920 Yeah, well you know it's I think this is important, 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.520 like where where is your chosen April. 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:58.240 River in America? 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.080 Well, look, we don't have or give away the rivers 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.440 that we liked. Fish, you don't. 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:04.760 Do that and platter. 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:07.960 Yeah, but Montana is still a big favorite, a big 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:08.840 favorite of ours. 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:13.160 Driving so much at Morgan Stanley, Ellen Xander with us today? 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:15.840 How was the American consumer? This is how you and 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:17.399 I first met, I know, do. 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:22.159 You know talking about Apple's fiftieth the anniversary. There's a 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.480 big anniversary for us, Tom. It is twenty three years 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:29.199 ago that I was first on radio with you. Very 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:30.480 twenty three years ago. 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:31.680 You were three years old? 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.040 Exactly, Yes, no, exactly. 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:36.400 Well seriously, this is she was sixteen years old out 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:37.720 of some high school in Texas. 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:38.360 That's what I read. 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.840 It was you and Ken Pruitt and I in the studio. 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:43.320 Was the only reason you got on? 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:46.360 Was you and Ken talk and fly fishing Paul Sweety 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.720 with elsator Ellen, what do you. 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:50.360 What are the conversations you're having with your clients as 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:51.560 you do travel around the US. 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:52.960 Talking to your US. 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.520 Clients here, do they want you to really help them 0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:57.240 think about on the other side of this war? 0:17:58.160 --> 0:17:59.080 What do we do here? 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.760 Is that? What are the conversations you're having these days? 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.320 I tell you what. There's so much volatility and so 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:09.560 much uncertainty out there that it has made the conversations 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:14.280 all that much more interesting because they're much more longer 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:18.040 term focused. So not necessarily when are we going to 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:21.239 get beyond this? But it's more of what does this 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:27.320 mean in the bigger picture of long term national security 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:34.600 and resource nationalism and resource scarcity and defense spending and 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.960 all of those things. And so it makes those topics 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:42.680 really top of mind for clients because you can't it 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.080 really gets exhausting trying to figure out when is this 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:46.920 thing going to end? Am I supposed to time it? 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.680 What should I do here? And so it just opens 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:53.000 the door to some really interesting conversations. I don't think 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:55.000 anyone knows when we're going to be out of this 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.200 and what does out of this even mean? 0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:58.720 And I think we're seeing that maybe in the oil 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.200 marketings we're seeing stocks reb Okay, that's fine, maybe it 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:03.960 goes to the growth issue, but you know, oil still 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.680 holding very high levels. That suggests maybe the market saying 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.160 I'm not sure it is straight up where moose things 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:11.520 ever going to clear up in the near term. 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:13.760 Yeah, well, even if I mean, what does it mean 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.639 to open the straight tomorrow, I mean, let's just assume 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:20.600 that's a thing, and that that could happen. You still 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.600 got all of these price effects and shortages in the pipeline, 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:28.199 and businesses have to absorb that, households have to absorb that, 0:19:28.600 --> 0:19:30.600