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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Monday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perolz. You guys can follow me across all my

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Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk Matt. This podcast being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by your friends at DraftKings. That was a long

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Speaker 1: day of football. We started early on the West Coast.

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Speaker 1: I got up at six forty five and the game

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Speaker 1: was already into the second quarter. Jets blow it to

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Speaker 1: the Vikings in London, and then all the way to

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Speaker 1: an hour and a half lightning delay for the Steelers

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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys. My goodness, late night even on the

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Speaker 1: West Coast. That's a late night. That's a nine to

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Speaker 1: forty five finish on the West Coast twelve forty five

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Speaker 1: Eastern time. And for that, Dak Prescott gets it done.

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Speaker 1: But it wasn't enough to save the day in highly

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Speaker 1: because yesterday was not a good day. The Ravens come

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Speaker 1: in for us, make it good. The Bills and the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Teaser comes in. That was good. The Props go three

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Speaker 1: in one. But that's the only good thing that happened,

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Speaker 1: because the Raiders were gonna go up seventeen to three

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Speaker 1: on the Broncos. That bet was gonna cash. That bet

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Speaker 1: was gonna come in. Raiders throw a pick six Gardner

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Speaker 1: Minshew gets benched and it's good for under six and

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Speaker 1: a half play mind you. Okay, that's that's good for

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Speaker 1: us on that, but not good for that single bet

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Speaker 1: with us coming in here with the Raiders should have

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Speaker 1: won that game outright and said they got housed in

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Speaker 1: the second half. The Bills and the Texans, we had

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Speaker 1: chances to go over there, but the Bills offense really

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Speaker 1: was stagnant. The Bills, I think they're pretenders. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure the Texans are for real, but I think the

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Speaker 1: Bills are just pretenders. And the Packers and the Rams.

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Speaker 1: That game also could have gone over. That was Sea

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Speaker 1: Song back and forth on a couple of drives that

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Speaker 1: didn't go well, and then the long Teaser dropped to

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Speaker 1: oh and five, oh and five. I got to reassess

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Speaker 1: whether we're going to keep on doing that, because the

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Speaker 1: thing with this season, it is absolutely insane. One of

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Speaker 1: the things that makes the long Teacher so great is

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Speaker 1: that you pass through seven and three when you're pulling

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Speaker 1: somebody down or pushing somebody up, right, So you go

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Speaker 1: from two and a half, you cross three, and you

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Speaker 1: cross seven. When you have a seven or seven and

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Speaker 1: a half point line like we did for the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: and the Niners, well now we're pulling down through seven

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Speaker 1: and through three. Those are all key numbers that are

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Speaker 1: supposed to really matter. But the problem is right now

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Speaker 1: is that dogs of six points or more they're not

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Speaker 1: just covering like what they occasionally would do. Right, they

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Speaker 1: lose the game, but they would cover, so they lose

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Speaker 1: by four, they lose by three, and we would have

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Speaker 1: the teaser, and that would make the teaser really profitable

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Speaker 1: for us to go ahead and do that. Well, the

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Speaker 1: problem is these big dogs, they aren't just covering this season.

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Speaker 1: They're winning at an epic rate, a rate that just

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Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense. Dogs in the NFL of six

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Speaker 1: points or more are eleven and eight straight up. They're

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Speaker 1: sixteen to two and one against the spread, sixteen two

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Speaker 1: and one, but eleven and eight straight up. That's what's

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Speaker 1: destroying the Wong teaser. That's what's making this season so incredible.

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Speaker 1: It's the first time since nineteen sixty that dogs of

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Speaker 1: six points are more or over five hundred straight up

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Speaker 1: through the first five weeks of this season, and it's

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Speaker 1: the best winning percentage all time, best winning percent of

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Speaker 1: all time, best against the spread winning percentage all times,

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Speaker 1: should say, the best ever sixteen to two and one

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Speaker 1: for dogs six points or more. So that's why I'm

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Speaker 1: getting killed on the won teaser. If you're wondering, like Matt,

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Speaker 1: why do you keep on betting the wrong teaser? Well,

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Speaker 1: I just keep on going. How can this continue? Like?

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Speaker 1: How can this keep going? At some point we have

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Speaker 1: to stop right wrong. Circus Survivor fourteen thousand, two hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty six entries into a fourteen point two million

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Speaker 1: dollar contest is down to two hundred and twenty seven

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Speaker 1: entries for fourteen point two million. I know two people

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Speaker 1: that have entries left of the two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: seven entries left. That entry is worth sixty three thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars now after entering it for one thousand, there's two

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven people our entries left and we're

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Speaker 1: through week five. We're not even through week five. We

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Speaker 1: had one game left tonight. With week five, I mean,

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Speaker 1: people are saying we're not gonna get to Halloween. I

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Speaker 1: think we'll get past Halloween. But I don't think we're

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Speaker 1: making Thanksgiving for this thing. It's unbelievable this year. There's

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Speaker 1: a reason why the Wong teasers zero and five because

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Speaker 1: big dogs don't matter. I mean, it just doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Both Seattle and San fran lose outright the top two

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Speaker 1: picks in the Circus Survivor. Five consecutive weeks for the

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Speaker 1: top pick in Circus Survivor has lost the game, not

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Speaker 1: just failed to cover, has less the game outright. Wow wow,

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Speaker 1: wow wow. What a wild NFL football season for us.

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Speaker 1: So we want up down two units on the day.

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Speaker 1: That does not kill the week, though it puts a

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Speaker 1: dend in the profitability of the week, but does not

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Speaker 1: kill the week. We have a winning week for us

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Speaker 1: here today. So we start a new week, winning week,

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Speaker 1: losing week, winning week. Two out in the last three

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Speaker 1: with winning weeks. Let's start a new one here during

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Speaker 1: the month of October for week number two here with

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Speaker 1: October with the Saints and the Chiefs on Monday Night football.

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Speaker 1: Before we do that, let's talk about our friends at DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: six place. Okay, let's get tonight. Saints are catching five

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Speaker 1: and a half on the road at Arrowhead. There's going

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Speaker 1: to be a lot of people who are going to

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Speaker 1: be on the Chiefs tonight just because it's the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Casey is four to oh this season, straight up. Casey

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Speaker 1: is three to one on the year. Atsa mark for

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Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints. However, the New Orleans Saints lost

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Speaker 1: their last game on the road against Atlanta. So this

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Speaker 1: is the second game in a row on the road

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Speaker 1: for the New Orleans Saints. This is prime time, This

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Speaker 1: is the Chiefs. This is Arrowheit. They were catching two

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Speaker 1: and a half points against the Falcons. They covered, they're

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Speaker 1: catching two and a half. They lost by two. Now

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Speaker 1: they're catching five and a half against Kansas City and

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Speaker 1: the total is forty three. Look, I think this is

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Speaker 1: the week that the injuries catch up to the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs haven't played well in the first half, but

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Speaker 1: the Saints in the first half don't mind it at all.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs played poorly in the first half. They played better

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Speaker 1: in the second half. I think Katsey can win the game,

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Speaker 1: but much like the Falcons game, I think they'll win

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Speaker 1: the game by three points or less. If they win

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Speaker 1: the game, I think five and a half points is

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Speaker 1: too heavy here. I think the Saints can keep it close.

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Speaker 1: I think their offense can keep it close. I think

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Speaker 1: they have a chance here to put a scare in

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. This is their second biggest favorite number here,

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Speaker 1: no third biggest, Sorry, six and a half against Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: They didn't cover. Six and a half against the Chargers

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Speaker 1: on the road they did cover, and then now five

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Speaker 1: and a half at home against New Orleans. I think

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara, I think they can run

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Speaker 1: the ball here on the Chiefs well enough. I think

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Speaker 1: they can throw the ball in the chief secondary well enough.

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Speaker 1: And the injuries, I mean, the injuries are just unbelievable

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Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. Here in week number five, we're just

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Speaker 1: talking about so many important players who are out of

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Speaker 1: this game for the Chiefs. For I mean, there are

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Speaker 1: some for the Saints, but the Chiefs injury port is

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Speaker 1: just ridiculous. Mikil Hardman has a questionable with a knee injury.

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Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt is questionable with his shoulder injury. Both those

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Speaker 1: guys should play. No. Rashi Rice he is out. He's

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Speaker 1: on the ir NO Asia Pacheco. He's out. He's on

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Speaker 1: the ir NO Hollywood Brown. He's out. He's on the

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Speaker 1: ir NO Clyde Edwards Hilaire. He's out with an illness.

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Speaker 1: Into reserve. He'll miss at least four games of the year.

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Speaker 1: He's out with an illness. So you're starting running back,

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Speaker 1: your backup running back is questionable. Your number one wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: your number two wide receiver both out five injuries and

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Speaker 1: me kill Hartman if he can't go. It's in another

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Speaker 1: big blow. And Travis Kilsey hasn't looked great. Okay, Yes,

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Speaker 1: Taylor Swift will be in the building, so maybe Travis

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Speaker 1: will play better and he won't be pouting like he's

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Speaker 1: been pounting for so long. I'm taking the points. Give

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Speaker 1: me the Saints plus five and a half for New Orleans. Now,

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Speaker 1: I've been good with these same game primetime teasers from

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Speaker 1: five and two. In these prime game primetime same game teasers.

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Speaker 1: If I like the Saints five and a half, I

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Speaker 1: gotta like the Saints a lot. Eleven and a half, okay,

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Speaker 1: so I meant tease them up to eleven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Saints plus eleven and a half. Here's a number to watch.

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Speaker 1: I think it's like ten straight or eleven straight games.

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Speaker 1: If the Chiefs go down by exactly ten points during

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Speaker 1: this game, they should be an auto fire on the

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Speaker 1: money line. To bet the money line because they've come

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Speaker 1: back and won. Like eleven or twelve straight games mean

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Speaker 1: being down exactly ten points, not nine, not eleven, exactly

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Speaker 1: ten points during a game Patrick Mahomes's rally to win outrights,

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Speaker 1: so maybe keep that in mind. But plus eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half and then I'm gonna pull it down to

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Speaker 1: thirty seven and go over. I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: points here. I think both offenses have success. I think

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Speaker 1: both offenses can move the football. I'm really thinking the

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Speaker 1: Saints are gonna move the ball on the Chiefs, off

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Speaker 1: on the Chiefs defense well enough to get this thing.

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Speaker 1: You know. I think they're scoring twenty plus points here tonight,

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Speaker 1: and I think the Chiefs with Mahomes, they're gonna score

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Speaker 1: at least seventeen points on this offense and this defense.

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Speaker 1: Rather for the New Orleans Saints. So over thirty it's

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Speaker 1: forty three, it's over forty What did I put it at? Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's over thirty seven. So Saints plus five and a

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Speaker 1: half Saints plus eleven and a half teas with over

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Speaker 1: thirty seven, that should be one point mie one twenty.

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Speaker 1: That miss won ten twenty for one point two units

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Speaker 1: on the price for that. So a full unit down,

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Speaker 1: one point one units down on the Saints plus five

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Speaker 1: and a half, Saints plus eleven and a half and

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Speaker 1: over thirty seven. We're going one point two units down

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Speaker 1: on that. Two player props to give you guys here,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna put a half unit down on each

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Speaker 1: because I think they're both pretty likely to hit. Justin Watson,

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Speaker 1: who's catching the ball. Justin Watson for the Chiefs. We've

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Speaker 1: been on him a bunch this year. His props have

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Speaker 1: come in. The books are raising the number because of

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Speaker 1: the injuries to the white Outs. But Justin Watson, it's

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Speaker 1: only twenty five and a half yards for his receiving prop.

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Speaker 1: We're going over. We've hit this a couple of times

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Speaker 1: this year. Justin Watson over for his receiving twenty five

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Speaker 1: and a half points start, it's trunning twenty five and

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Speaker 1: a half yards receiving for point five to five to

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Speaker 1: win a half a unit. And then I'm doing the

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Speaker 1: same with Alvin Kamara. I think Alvin Kamara comes in

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Speaker 1: and catches on a swing pass. He's involved heavily in

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Speaker 1: the past game. You have a great pass rush from

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, a lot of outlet passes, lotus swing passes

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Speaker 1: coming to Kamara, and think you can pop one or

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Speaker 1: two of these and just take it to the house.

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Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara over thirty one and a half yards receiving

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Speaker 1: also for to win a half unit, point five to

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Speaker 1: five down on that. So that's the card for us.

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Speaker 1: That should say Monday, sorry, place for Monday, not Sunday,

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Speaker 1: to be Monday ten to seven. I apologize for that.

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Speaker 1: It's really late right now. It's been a long day.

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Speaker 1: Saints plus five and a half, Saints plus eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half over thirty seven, Watson over his receiving twenty

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Speaker 1: five and a half, Camara over his receiving at thirty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. Both those prop bets to win

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Speaker 1: a half a unit. Coming up here today on Monday

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Speaker 1: Night Football. My n is Matt Parola, following acaus All

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Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk Matt. Every morning, it's the Deal

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Speaker 1: Juice podcast presented by Draftkinks